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1

Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh  

PubMed Central

Background Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of information for planning. This paper seeks to document the handling practice of waste (e.g. collection, storage, transportation and disposal) along with the types and amount of wastes generated by Health Care Establishments (HCE). A total of 60 out of the existing 68 HCE in the study areas provided us with relevant information. Methods The methodology for this paper includes empirical field observation and field-level data collection through inventory, questionnaire survey and formal and informal interviews. A structured questionnaire was designed to collect information addressing the generation of different medical wastes according to amount and sources from different HCE. A number of in-depth interviews were arranged to enhance our understanding of previous and existing management practice of medical wastes. A number of specific questions were asked of nurses, hospital managers, doctors, and cleaners to elicit their knowledge. The collected data with the questionnaire survey were analysed, mainly with simple descriptive statistics; while the qualitative mode of analysis is mainly in narrative form. Results The paper shows that the surveyed HCE generate a total of 5,562 kg/day of wastes, of which about 77.4 per cent are non-hazardous and about 22.6 per cent are hazardous. The average waste generation rate for the surveyed HCE is 1.9 kg/bed/day or 0.5 kg/patient/day. The study reveals that there is no proper, systematic management of medical waste except in a few private HCE that segregate their infectious wastes. Some cleaners were found to salvage used sharps, saline bags, blood bags and test tubes for resale or reuse. Conclusion The paper reveals that lack of awareness, appropriate policy and laws, and willingness are responsible for the improper management of medical waste in Dhaka City. The paper also shows that a newly designed medical waste management system currently serves a limited number of HCE. New facilities should be established for the complete management of medical waste in Dhaka City. PMID:18221548

Hassan, M Manzurul; Ahmed, Shafiul Azam; Rahman, K Anisur; Biswas, Tarit Kanti

2008-01-01

2

Handling emergency management training scenarios: The MUSTER SCENARIO MANAGER  

SciTech Connect

The SCENARIO MANAGER is a module within the MUSTER system: a prototype computer system supporting the multi-user training of emergency managers and their staff in coordinating activities to cope with emergencies. The SCENARIO MANAGER has been designed to meet the requirements of training supervisors, that is, the persons (including aides) who plan, execute and analyze training sessions for emergency management trainees.

Andersen, H.B.; Andersen, V.; Larsen, M.S. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

1995-12-31

3

Management of keratoconus: current scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Keratoconus is an ectatic corneal dystrophy and is a leading indication for corneal transplantation surgery worldwide. The disease was first described in detail more than 150 years ago by Dr John Nottingham, but the understanding of the disease and its management have undergone significant changes over the last few decades. Corneal specialists have adopted new techniques and technologies for the

Vishal Jhanji; Namrata Sharma; Rasik B Vajpayee

2010-01-01

4

Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

Giacomelli, P.; Rossetti, A.; Brambilla, M.

2008-04-01

5

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario studies, links to other scenario studies, a forum for discussion on scenarios, a depository on scenario development publications, and a suggested scenario glossary.

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

6

Issues and scenarios for nuclear waste management systems analysis  

SciTech Connect

The Planning and Analysis Branch of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Waste Management Programs is developing a new systems integration program. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory was requested to perform a brief scoping analysis of what scenarios, questions, and issues should be addressed by the systems integration program. This document reports on that scoping analysis.

Mendel, J.E.

1980-11-01

7

Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

2010-12-01

8

Simulation-based evaluation of communications management within battlespace scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Technical developments to our work in the area of communications management in decentralized data fusion systems are described. These include combining identification and tracking sub-systems into a single simulator, and increasing the complexity of the sensing model, communication model, and target/platform trajectories. These technological developments are employed to indicate which is the most appropriate communications management philosophy: (1) one based on identification only, (2) one based on tracking only, or (3) one based on identification and tracking in combination. The paper concludes that, for the scenario investigated, communications management based purely on identification provides good identification performance but poor track performance. The converse was true when the management was based purely on track information. However, when the communication management decision philosophy was based on both identification and track, good performance in both sub-systems was achieved.

Deaves, Rob H.; Nicholson, David; Greenway, Phil; Vangasse, Paul; Hartburn, D.; Bull, David R.

1998-07-01

9

Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario  

SciTech Connect

The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool - Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Sardini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano (Italy)

2012-07-01

10

Practical Tips for Managing Challenging Scenarios in Undergraduate Research  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Mathematical Association of America (MAA) has been involved in a number of new initiatives as of late, and one such project is the "Resources for Undergraduate Research". This series brings together topical information on new research methods and strategies for working with undergraduate students on a number of mathematical endeavors. This particular paper looks at how to best manage different scenarios that might arise during the research advising process. Authored by Sarah Adams and Darren A. Narayan, this document is based on solutions discussed by a group of faculty members that participated in the 2008 Center for Undergraduate Research in Mathematics Workshop. The five-page document discusses five specific scenarios that might occur (including what might be done if a student tends to dominate or control a group project) and offers some specific and concrete solutions to such difficulties. The scenarios discussed could occur in more than just college math classrooms, so this document is broadly relevant for many groups of educators.

Bailey, Brad; Budden, Mark; Ghosh-Dastidar, Urmi

2009-01-01

11

A Tile Manager for Deploying Scenarios in Virtual Driving Environments  

Microsoft Academic Search

A tile based scenario system that allows an experimenter to 1) change the order and number of tiles; 2) change the parameters of a scenario via an XML file; and 3) provide both standard performance measures as well as those that are unique to a particular scenario has been developed. Each scenario is viewed as a tile and is defined

Piriyakala Suresh; Ronald R. Mourant

12

Scenario-based decision making in water resource management: A case study in the Yellow River Delta  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decision making in water resource management encounters difficulties due to uncertainties about the future. Scenarios are useful to explore uncertainties and inform decision makers to take actions. Scenarios are originally used to describe the future states in the form of storylines. These are then supplemented with numerical information from model predictions and expert judgement. Probabilities are attached to scenarios to encourage the specific explanation of the assumptions and expectations behind the storylines, and communicate the possibility of each scenario. Bayesian probability offers a prior probability on the basis of available knowledge and beliefs at the presence of uncertainties, and allows for updating to the posterior probability as new evidence arises. Bayesian rules are also applicable for decision making given the existing probabilistic scenarios. Decisions can be ranked according to their performance on the utility function given each possible scenario. A case study is provided to find an optimal solution to alleviate the water stress problem in the Yellow River Delta for the next 30 years. Scenarios of water availability and water demand are developed for the planning period. In order to make decisions rationally, cost-benefit analysis is used to evaluate the performance of viable decisions given the probabilistic scenarios. Key word: Scenarios, Water Management, Uncertainty, Decision making, Bayesian approach

Dong, Congli; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2013-04-01

13

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling.  

PubMed

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-09-27

14

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling  

PubMed Central

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-01-01

15

How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school leadership. We build upon existing research into the history

Craig Peck; Ulrich C. Reitzug

2012-01-01

16

Airport pavement management systems: an appraisal of existing methodologies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Airport pavement management systems (APMS) are computer-based decision support systems that can be used by the agencies running airports to determine cost-effective maintenance and rehabilitation strategies to preserve the various pavement structures (runways, taxiways, etc.) which are a critical component of these facilities. In this paper, we describe the main elements of APMS and review existing systems.

Michel Gendreau; Patrick Soriano

1998-01-01

17

"Managing the existing inventory of bridges and other highway structures  

E-print Network

"Managing the existing inventory of bridges and other highway structures while developing of structural health monitoring and smart structures. #12;RECENT RESEARCH DEVELOPMENTS � Measurement of stress concentrations at fatigue prone details on in service steel highway bridges using thermoelastic imaging

Acton, Scott

18

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades  

PubMed Central

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

19

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-10-01

20

Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.  

PubMed

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

21

Interreality in the management of psychological stress: a clinical scenario.  

PubMed

The term "psychological stress" describes a situation in which a subject perceives that environmental demands tax or exceed his or her adaptive capacity. According to the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the best validated approach covering both stress management and stress treatment is the Cognitive Behavioral (CBT) approach. We aim to design, develop and test an advanced ICT based solution for the assessment and treatment of psychological stress that is able to improve the actual CBT approach. To reach this goal we will use the "interreality" paradigm integrating assessment and treatment within a hybrid environment, that creates a bridge between the physical and virtual worlds. Our claim is that bridging virtual experiences (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and emotional regulation) with real experiences (allowing both the identification of any critical stressors and the assessment of what has been learned) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, advanced sensors and PDA/mobile phones) is the best way to address the above limitations. To illustrate the proposed concept, a clinical scenario is also presented and discussed: Paola, a 45 years old nurse, with a mother affected by progressive senile dementia. PMID:20543263

Riva, Giuseppe; Raspelli, Simona; Pallavicini, Federica; Grassi, Alessandra; Algeri, Davide; Wiederhold, Brenda K; Gaggioli, Andrea

2010-01-01

22

The use of scenarios and gaming in crisis management planning and training  

SciTech Connect

This paper provides a brief introduction to scenarios and gaming. It clarifies the definitions of each, discusses their possible uses and purposes, and presents some principles of good practice. In then describes how scenarios and gaming can be used together with a computerized crisis management decision support system to provide useful tools for crisis management planning and training.

Walker, W.E. [RAND/European-American Center for Policy Analysis, Delft (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

23

Hardware-in-The-Loop Simulators for multi-vehicles scenarios: survey on existing solutions and proposal of a new architecture  

E-print Network

Hardware-in-The-Loop Simulators for multi-vehicles scenarios: survey on existing solutions. This simulator allows Hardware In The Loop (HIL) simulations including the use of virtual sensors which allows

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

24

Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools  

E-print Network

. In particular, effective training scenarios require a combination of content contributed via pre-authored scripts and content generated dynamically during the training exercise. Large-scale exercises require multiple domain experts contributing oversight...

Riddle, Austin Christopher

2008-10-10

25

The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.  

PubMed

The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

2013-12-01

26

Putting watershed restoration in context: alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes.  

PubMed

Predicting effects of habitat restoration is an important step for recovery of imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Habitat above three major hydropower dams in the Lewis River watershed, southwestern Washington, USA, will soon become accessible to anadromous fish. We used multiple models to estimate habitat conditions above dams and fish population responses. Additionally, we used scenario planning to predict how habitat and fish will respond to potential future trends in land use due to human population growth and riparian conservation policies. Finally, we developed a hypothetical management strategy (i.e., a set of prioritized restoration projects in specific locations within the watershed) as an example of how a fixed amount of restoration funds might be spent to enhance the success of reintroducing fish above dams. We then compared predicted outcomes from this new strategy to those of six previously modeled strategies. We estimated how the choice of the best management strategy might differ among alternative future scenarios. Results suggest that dam passage will provide access to large amounts of high-quality habitat that will benefit fish populations. Moreover, conservation of existing riparian areas, if implemented, has the potential to improve conditions to a much greater extent than restoration strategies examined, despite expected urban growth. We found that the relative performance of management strategies shifted when fish were allowed to migrate above dams, but less so among alternative futures examined. We discuss how predicted outcomes from these seven hypothetical management strategies could be used for developing an on-the-ground strategy to address a real management situation. PMID:19323185

Fullerton, A H; Steel, E A; Caras, Y; Sheer, M; Olson, P; Kaje, J

2009-01-01

27

Municipal solid waste management scenarios for Attica and their greenhouse gas emission impact.  

PubMed

Disposal of municipal solid waste in sanitary landfills is still the main waste management method in the Attica region, as in most regions of Greece. Nevertheless, diversion from landfilling is being promoted by regional plans, in which the perspectives of new waste treatment technologies are being evaluated. The present study aimed to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact of different municipal solid waste treatment technologies currently under assessment in the new regional plan for Attica. These technologies are mechanical-biological treatment, mass-burn incineration and mechanical treatment and have been assessed in the context of different scenarios. The present study utilized existing methodologies and emission factors for the quantification of GHG emissions from the waste management process and found that all technologies under assessment could provide GHG emission savings. However, the performance and ranking of these technologies is strongly dependent on the existence of end markets for the waste-derived fuels produced by the mechanical-biological treatment processes. In the absence of these markets the disposal of these fuels would be necessary and thus significant GHG savings would be lost. PMID:19837710

Papageorgiou, Asterios; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Barton, John R; Kalogirou, Efstratios

2009-11-01

28

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

29

Privatising the governance and management of existing urban neighbourhoods  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the idea of transplanting the institution of homeowner associations or similar to existing urban neighbourhoods in order to correct imbalances in patterns of incentives and responsibilities that threaten the liveability and sustainability of cities. Design\\/methodology\\/approach The paper compares a recent published proposal for privatising existing neighbourhoods with the current

Chien-Yuan Chen; Chris Webster

2006-01-01

30

Description and Analysis of Existing Knowledge Management Frameworks  

Microsoft Academic Search

There is a growing recognition in the business community about the importance of managing knowledge. Some organizations have taken initiatives to understand and manage this critical resource. Major organizations have appointed chief knowledge officers (CKOs) and chief learning officers to formally initiate and cultivate KM activities in their organizations. In spite of these initiatives, the bulk of organizations still have

Clyde W. Holsapple; Kshiti D. Joshi

1999-01-01

31

Scenario Planning for Wildlife Management: A Case Study of the National Elk Refuge, Jackson, Wyoming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since the 1980s, scenario planning has increasingly been used in business and military settings to integrate an appreciation of uncertainty about the future into planning processes. There is a growing precedent to use it in ecological management decision making. Although well suited for the purpose, the technique has not been adequately applied to wildlife management. This article presents a case

Mark W. Neff

2007-01-01

32

Comparison of recreation use values among alternative reservoir water level management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Throughout the United States, reservoirs are managed for multiple uses, including hydropower, stream flow regulation, flood control, and recreation. Water level drawdowns for hydropower, stream flow regulation, and flood control often reduce the suitability of reservoirs for water-based recreation. The gain in aggregate economic use value of outdoor recreation under three alternative water level management scenarios was measured for four

H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

1993-01-01

33

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

34

Evaluation of Operations Scenarios for Managing the Big Creek Marsh  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetland management in changing climate is important for maintaining sustainable ecosystem as well as for reducing the impact of climate change on the environment as wetlands act as natural carbon sinks. The Big Creek Marsh within the Essex County is a Provincially Significant Wetland (PSW) in Ontario, Canada. The marsh is approximately 900 hectares in area and is primarily fed by streamflow from the Big Creek Watershed. The water level of this wetland has been managed by the stakeholders using a system of pumps, dykes and a controlled outlet to the Lake Erie. In order to adequately manage the Big Creek Marsh and conserve diverse aquatic plant species, Essex Region Conservation Authority (ERCA), Ontario has embarked on developing an Operations Plan to maintain desire water depths during different marsh phases, viz., Open water, Hemi and Overgrown marsh phases. The objective of the study is to evaluate the alternatives for managing water level of the Big Creek Marsh in different marsh phases. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a continuous simulation model was used to simulate streamflow entering into the marsh from the Big Creek watershed. A Water Budget (WB) model was developed for the Big Creek Marsh to facilitate in operational management of the marsh. The WB model was applied to simulate the marsh level based on operations schedules, and available weather and hydrologic data aiming to attain the target water depths for the marsh phases. This paper presents the results of simulated and target water levels, streamflow entering into the marsh, water releasing from the marsh, and water pumping into and out of the marsh under different hydrologic conditions.

Wilson, Ian; Rahman, Masihur; Wychreschuk, Jeremy; Lebedyk, Dan; Bolisetti, Tirupati

2013-04-01

35

Efficient Key Management for Enforcing Access Control in Outsourced Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Data outsourcing is emerging today as a successful paradigm allowing individuals and organizations to exploit external servers for storing and distributing data. While trusted to properly manage the data, external servers are often not authorized to read them, therefore requiring data to be encrypted. In such a context, the application of an access control policy requires different data to be encrypted with different keys so to allow the external server to directly enforce access control and support selective dissemination and access.

Blundo, Carlo; Cimato, Stelvio; de Capitani di Vimercati, Sabrina; de Santis, Alfredo; Foresti, Sara; Paraboschi, Stefano; Samarati, Pierangela

36

Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

37

Managed care, consumerism, preventive medicine: does a causal connection exist?  

PubMed

Managed care plans, and HMOs in particular, have long touted that their emphasis is on preventive care, to avoid expensive illness later in life. However, few articles in the contemporary literature adequately address this claim. The available evidence seems to support that HMOs do, in fact, provide greater access to preventive services, but the limitations of this research are substantial. This article discusses the scientific evidence on the relationships between managed care arrangements and the implications for preventive care in the current era, emphasizing consumer choices and less-restrictive plan structures. PMID:16898346

Rizzo, John A; Xie, Yang

2006-07-01

38

How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school

Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

2012-01-01

39

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models.  

PubMed

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

40

A Demand-Side Management Experience in Existing Building Commissioning  

E-print Network

-cost measures. This is a resource acquisition program targeted at operation and maintenance (O&M) improvements. Its anticipated demand savings cost $450 per customer kW saved. This cost is competitive with the utility?s other DSM programs and provides... customers. To be eligible, customers must meet the following minimum eligibility requirements: ? Existing building or facility must have a minimum of 75,000 square feet of conditioned space and a summer peak demand of 300 kW. ? Building must have a...

Franconi, E.; Selch, M.; Bradford, J.; Gruen, B.

2003-01-01

41

Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

Khambatta, Cyrus F.

2007-01-01

42

Facilitating Adaptive Water Management Planning Using Scenarios That Illuminate Vulnerabilities (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fast changing and hard-to-predict future supply, demand, technology, regulatory, and other conditions present water managers with significant planning challenges. Adaptive plans, ones designed to evolve over time in response to new information, represent an obvious solution in principle, but are often to develop and implement in practice. This talk will describe the use analytic methods to facilitate the development of scenarios as part of a decision support process that leads to the development of adaptive water management plans. The scenarios are chosen to illuminate the vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, provide concise summaries of the future states of the world in which a proposed policy would fail to meet its goals. Such scenarios emerge from a decision support process that begins with a proposed policy, seeks to understand the conditions under which it would fail, and then uses this information to identify and evaluate potential alternative policies that are robust over a wide range of future conditions. Statistical cluster analyses applied to databases of simulation model results can help identify scenarios as part of this process. This talk will describe efforts to evaluate the ability of such scenarios to effectively communicate decision-relevant information, and describe how water management agencies have used them to develop robust, adaptive plans.

Lempert, R. J.

2013-12-01

43

Research on Commercial Patterns of China Existing Building Energy Retrofit Based on Energy Management Contract  

E-print Network

Existing building energy retrofit is one of the keys of building energy efficiency in China. According to experience in developed countries, implementation of energy management contract (EMC) is crucial to promote existing building energy retrofit...

Han, Z.; Liu, C.; Sun, J.

2006-01-01

44

The RUNES Middleware for Networked Embedded Systems and its Application in a Disaster Management Scenario  

E-print Network

. of Computing Dept. of Computer Science Lancaster University, UK University College London, UK {geoff scenario involves fire management in a road tunnel that is instrumented with networked sensor and actuator- gies as they become damaged under emergency conditions, and firefighters are able to coordinate

Picco, Gian Pietro

45

Situation-Based Access Control: privacy management via modeling of patient data access scenarios  

E-print Network

is in conflict with the fundamental human right to control one's own personal information. The gap between the ease of access to one's personal details and the human desire to control this access is the root cause1 Situation-Based Access Control: privacy management via modeling of patient data access scenarios

Peleg, Mor

46

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAAs regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed value. However, this cost was minimal when local conservation actions were part of a concerted coast-wide plan. The simulations demonstrate the utility of using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model within NOAAs Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, by illustrating an end-to-end modeling tool that allows consideration of multiple management alternatives that are relevant to numerous state, federal and private interests.

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

47

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.  

PubMed

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

48

Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target species, facilitating the development of control measures to achieve a healthy balance between stock exploitation and socio-economic factors.

Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saa; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celi?, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgo?, Nedo; Isajlovi?, Igor; Mar?eta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

2014-05-01

49

Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management  

PubMed Central

Objective To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. Results In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusions Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way. PMID:24644524

Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; LeMay, Kate; Armour, Carol L.

50

Climate Change and Winter Wheat Management: A Modelling Scenario for South-Eastern England  

Microsoft Academic Search

Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine crop management responses, including yield, under six climate change scenarios for the years 2025 and 2050 on the Estate of Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response

A. Ghaffari; H. F. Cook; H. C. Lee

2002-01-01

51

Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do Nothing Approach" based on the defined environmental, health, social, and economical criteria, the most important being related to the environment and the economy. The robustness of the achieved ranking of AR management options has been tested by changing the selected criteria, criteria importance and criteria structure. The final analysis shows that all six AR management strategies are better than "doing nothing". The implementation of groundwater artificial recharge with maximum possible infiltration of secondary treated effluent in conjunction with sustainable reuse of the recharged water for agricultural development is the most effective AR solution to the water resources problems of the Gaza Strip.

Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

2010-05-01

52

75 FR 17913 - Maintenance and Vegetation Management Along Existing Western Area Power Administration...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Western Area Power Administration DEPARTMENT OF...and Vegetation Management Along Existing Western Area Power Administration Transmission...Nebraska (DOE/EIS-0442) AGENCIES: Western Area Power Administration, DOE;...

2010-04-08

53

A structured approach to scenario development: Applications for demand-side management  

SciTech Connect

Forecasting the evolution of issues that are driven by many factors in the business environment is a complex undertaking. This paper presents the underlying concept of the Hierarchical Influence Tracing System (HITS) for developing scenarios that describe the impacts and uncertainties of changes in the key factors in the business environment that affect such issues. HITS combines the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Influence Diagrams to develop a systematic framework for representing an individual`s understanding of the relations among various factors and their effects on the issue in question. In addition to providing a basis for the better understanding and modeling of reality, HITS is useful in facilitating communication about the perceptions of reality among different individuals and groups. Scenarios of future evolution of demand-side management developed by HITS are used as illustrative examples.

Yu, O. [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States)

1995-05-01

54

Study on problems existing in building intelligent community and system integrated management in China  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper introduces the constitution of system in intelligent residential district, and analyzes errors and problems existing on building intelligent residential district and integrated management system of intelligent systems. It also presents the major principles should be followed for a good design of residential district of intelligent systems, and points out the significance of intelligent system integration management, last puts

Liu Lihong

2011-01-01

55

Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their linkage and the involvement of stakeholders will have to be taken into account when constructing future scenarios of water supply and demand on the islands. First results on scenario studies based on this approach will be presented.

Lange, M. A.

2006-12-01

56

A Fuzzy Formative Scenario Analysis modelling framework for knowledge integration in natural hazard management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydrological hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown a variety of functional chains leading to floodplain inundation, such as morphological changes due to increased local erosion and deposition phenomena, and clogging of critical flow sections due to woody debris deposits. Simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. The proposed Fuzzy Formative Scenario Analysis framework is based on a methodology of knowledge integration from various stakeholders involved in the risk management process. Based on a participative assessment, input parameters are defined to gain a deepened insight into particular system loading configurations at (1) hydraulically critical cross-sections and (2) longitudinal sections of torrents and river segments susceptible to geomorphic changes. Furthermore, potential system developments are deduced and consistent and reliable scenarios are constructed in a rigorously systematic manner. These scenarios are fundamental to assure quality during the planning process and are an essential prerequisite for the realisation of efficient protection systems. Fuzzy set theory has proven to be a powerful modelling framework for the necessary qualitative and quantitative knowledge integration and for coping with the underlying uncertainties, which were considered to be a key element in natural hazards risk assessment.

Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.

2009-04-01

57

Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia.  

PubMed

We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process; and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels. PMID:18439742

Kassa, Habtemariam; Campbell, Bruce; Sandewall, Mats; Kebede, Mammo; Tesfaye, Yemiru; Dessie, Gessesse; Seifu, Abebe; Tadesse, Menfese; Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Kajsa

2009-02-01

58

Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the Agricultural Water Management Solutions project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision making.

Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

59

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

Barbara C. Wales; Miles A. HemstromC

60

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

Barbara C. Wales; Lowell H. Suring; Miles A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

61

Academic Administration and Management Scenarios on the Semantic Web Feng (Barry) Tao, Shakeel A. Khoja, Hugh Davis, Andy Gravell  

E-print Network

-processable by collaboratively constructing an enriched layer of the semantic web that links educational artifacts with formalAcademic Administration and Management Scenarios on the Semantic Web Feng (Barry) Tao, Shakeel A to the academic stakeholders (teachers, students, administrators, employers) by semantically managing learning

Gravell, Andrew M.

62

The economics of managing carbon via forestry: Assessment of existing studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The purpose of this paper is to assess the existing studies on the economics of using forests as a means of mitigating atmospheric carbon build-up. This assessment addresses conceptual and empirical issues and provides a basis for a comprehensive and cost efficient forest management strategy. Critical needs and opportunities for future research are identified.

Roger A. Sedjo; Joe Wisniewski; Alaric V. Sample; John D. Kinsman

1995-01-01

63

Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced that feed the watershed management model under different sensitivity scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Vulnerability is observed on the produced base flows of the moorlands ecosystem due to a decrease in moorlands' area and to climate variability-related impacts during the 50 years of simulation. This system-level vulnerability has significant effects on the water supply available for downstream demand sites, including rural and agricultural users that rely exclusively on a reservoir.

Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.

2013-12-01

64

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual benefits, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

65

Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, T.R.

2007-01-01

66

Childhood exposure to DEHP, DBP and BBP under existing chemical management systems: a comparative study of sources of childhood exposure in Korea and in Denmark.  

PubMed

In this paper, the cumulative risks of Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), Di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), and Benzyl-butyl phthalate (BBP) to 2-year-old children in two countries: one European (Denmark) and one Asian (South Korea) were compared. Denmark does not produce phthalates as a raw material, while Korea produces more than 0.4milliontons of the three above-mentioned phthalates each year. First, a comparative review of the existing phthalate regulations in the two countries was performed. Next, the level of childhood phthalate exposure from environmental and food sources was estimated using an exposure scenario approach. Then, the scenario based exposure level was compared with back-calculated exposure levels based on biomonitored urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations. The result verifies the existence of varying territorial human background exposure levels and the gap between exposure estimations based on exposure modeling and biomonitoring data. Cumulative childhood risk levels in Denmark were lower than in Korea. For both countries, risk levels from back calculation were higher than those from scenario estimation. The median cumulative risk levels from scenario estimation and back calculation respectively were 0.24 and up to 0.5 in Denmark while 0.52 and up to 0.95 in Korea. Food and indoor dust were the main exposure sources for all three phthalates. In order to protect human health from cumulative risks of these phthalates, the exposure scenarios in existing regulations such as the EU REACH need to be strengthened. Moreover, based on the contributions from different exposure sources, national specific risk management tools need to be developed and strengthened, applying a systemic approach to promote sustainable material flows. PMID:24270398

Lee, Jihyun; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Kim, Chan-Kook; Thomsen, Marianne

2014-02-01

67

Using reconstructed streamflow time-series to develop operational scenarios for near-future water management in Tasmania  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water resources management requires balancing a wide range of competing social, environmental, and economic demands. The development of realistic management scenarios often depends on limited data with multiple uncertainties. In Tasmania, southeastern Australia, the lack of long-term streamflow time-series reduces confidence in decision-making for water resources management. The longest time-series of measured river flow covers ~70 years, but most monitoring sites have only been operational for <40 years. Here we present a preliminary streamflow reconstruction from a tree-ring wood properties chronology that extends the streamflow record for the second largest catchment in Tasmania by ~500 years. We then consider several analytical approaches to incorporating this reconstruction into water management tools and processes. In particular, we focus on characterising the uncertainties in the streamflow reconstruction to provide a context for droughts and floods in the observational record and ensure adequate coverage of potential future variability in our water management scenarios.

Baker, Patrick; Allie, Stuart; Parkyn, Roger; Allen, Kathy; Goddard, Michael; Ling, Fiona; Cook, Edward

2013-04-01

68

Steps toward useful hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

2011-12-01

69

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimensionclimate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed VWRS model will account for the blue water component of the system (water taken from the rivers and reservoirs) as well as the green water (soil water used by agriculture), and track water-dependent products and services (energy, mining, crops, and industrial products). The system dynamics approach is used as a simulation environment for constructing the VWRS model due to its ability to accommodate hydrological and non-hydrological variables in one modeling platform. A set of scenarios representing various levels of water availability, combined with a set of various priorities of water uses, will be considered and tested. The scenarios will be evaluated with regard to the overall value of water use. The findings will be used to develop water value-based allocation priorities and reservoir operating rules. This novel modeling tool and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying virtual and value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. In this paper, the first and tentative version of the VWRS model is presented and applied to the Saskatchewan portion of the SSRB. Various scenarios of changes of the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan will be considered and tested to validate the VWRS model.

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

70

Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI. KOERI, representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (TWP) responsibilities for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Based on this profound experience KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios in the context of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS activities. However, KOERI's, most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria in order to meet ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for a hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situation in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise. Experiences and results gained with the TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported.

Hammitzsch, Martin; Necmioglu, Ocal; Lendholt, Matthias; Reiland, Sven; Schulz, Jana; Aksari, Dogan; Koseoglu, Aysegul; Ozer, Ceren; Comoglu, Mustafa; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Wchter, Joachim

2013-04-01

71

Managed care's reconstruction of human existence: the triumph of technical reason.  

PubMed

To achieve its goals of managing and restricting access to psychiatric care, managed care organizations rely on an instrument, the outpatient treatment report, that carries significant implications about how they view psychiatric patients and psychiatric care. In addition to involving ethical transgressions such as violation of patient confidentiality, denial of access to care, spurious use of concepts like quality of care, and harassment of practitioners, the managed care approach also depends on an overly technical, instrumental interpretation of human beings and psychiatric treatment. It is this grounding of managed care in technical reason that I will explore in this study. I begin with a review of a typical outpatient treatment report and show how, with its dependence on the DSM-IV, on behavioral symptoms and patient 'functioning', on the biomedical model of psychiatric illness, and on gross quantitative measures, the report results in a crude, skeletonized view of the human being as a congeries of behavioral symptoms and functions. I then develop the managed care construal of human existence further by showing its grounding in technical reason, exploring the latter in its modern embodiment and deriving it and its opposite, practical reason, from Aristotle's distinction between technical and practical reason, techne and phronesis. In this analysis of the role of technical reason in managed care, I point out that managed care did not have to develop its rationale de novo but could rather lift its arguments, e.g. the biomedical model, from contemporary psychiatry and simply apply them in a restrictive manner. Finally, I conclude this study by arguing for psychiatry's status as a discipline of practical knowledge. PMID:12516837

Phillips, James

2002-01-01

72

Optimizing irrigation management using CropSyst: Solving water allocation problems under Climate Change scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irrigation is fundamental to achieve economically viable yields in Mediterranean and semi-arid areas. Under normal conditions, irrigation systems are designed considering unlimited water supply and in many cases operated at relatively low marginal costs. Total satisfaction of plant water demands is seen as the main objective to maximize crop productivity. This paradigm is currently challenged by higher pressure on water resources as a consequence of economic and population growth, increasing exposure to impacts associated to droughts. In addition, future climate projections for these regions show likely increase in temperature and significant reductions in precipitation that will affect snowmelt dynamics and streamflows. This new scenario requires an efficient management of water resources at all levels, and especially to explore irrigation alternatives to maximize productivity with limited water resources. Crop Simulation models can become a very attractive tool to evaluate ex ante the results of different irrigation strategies. In this study, we used CropSyst to simulate the responses of maize as function of multiple combinations of monthly irrigation decisions. We generated six irrigation treatments that represented a range from 100% to 50% irrigation water demands. Each treatment was evaluated using a series of daily climate in the basin of Limari, Chile. Model results showed that crop productivity can be improved when compared to standard irrigation practices that consider constant irrigation reductions proportional to expected decreases in water availability.

Meza, F. J.; Maureira, F.; Stockle, C.

2012-12-01

73

Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.

Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.

1990-08-01

74

Performance Management Guide (Rev 2/07) Page 1 Please note: the following Guide is under revision and existing  

E-print Network

Performance Management Guide (Rev 2/07) Page 1 Please note: the following Guide is under revision and existing references should be used until further notice. Performance Management Guide ABOUT THIS GUIDE This Performance Management Guide provides the necessary tools to assist leaders in conducting comprehensive

Portman, Douglas

75

Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site  

SciTech Connect

Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

1980-11-01

76

Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET) structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios  

PubMed Central

Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET)) and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia). Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167188) than before (85129.5). In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery). Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review. PMID:12020355

Johanson, Richard B; Menon, Vijay; Burns, Ethel; Kargramanya, Eduard; Osipov, Vardges; Israelyan, Musheg; Sargsyan, Karine; Dobson, Sarah; Jones, Peter

2002-01-01

77

Administrative Problem-Solving for Writing Programs and Writing Centers: Scenarios in Effective Program Management.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Addressing the issues and problems faced by writing program administrators (WPAs) and writing center directors (WCDs), and how they can most effectively resolve the political, pedagogical, and financial questions that arise, this book presents essays from experienced WPAs and WCDs at a wide variety of institutions that offer scenarios and case

Myers-Breslin, Linda

78

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

79

CO2 Deserts: Implications of Existing CO2 Supply Limitations for Carbon Management.  

PubMed

Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change will require deep reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the scale of gigatonnes per year. CO2 capture and utilization and/or storage technologies are a class of approaches that can substantially reduce CO2 emissions. Even though examples of this approach, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, are already being practiced on a scale >0.05 Gt/year, little attention has been focused on the supply of CO2 for these projects. Here, facility-scale data newly collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was processed to produce the first comprehensive map of CO2 sources from industrial sectors currently supplying CO2 in the United States. Collectively these sources produce 0.16 Gt/year, but the data reveal the presence of large areas without access to CO2 at an industrially relevant scale (>25 kt/year). Even though some facilities with the capability to capture CO2 are not doing so and in some regions pipeline networks are being built to link CO2 sources and sinks, much of the country exists in "CO2 deserts". A life cycle analysis of the sources reveals that the predominant source of CO2, dedicated wells, has the largest carbon footprint further confounding prospects for rational carbon management strategies. PMID:25137398

Middleton, Richard S; Clarens, Andres F; Liu, Xiaowei; Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan S

2014-10-01

80

Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.  

PubMed

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. PMID:24414803

Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Heln C; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Gustafsson, Bo G; Kotwicki, Lech; Neset, Tina-Simone; Niiranen, Susa; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Savchuk, Oleg P; Schenk, Frederik; W?s?awski, Jan Marcin; Zorita, Eduardo

2014-02-01

81

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China  

SciTech Connect

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China); Li Xiangzhi [Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, 1301 Catherine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhaojie Cui [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)

2010-11-15

82

Development of Energy Consumption Database Management System of Existing Large Public Buildings  

E-print Network

The statistic data of energy consumption are the base of analyzing energy consumption. The scientific management method of energy consumption data and the development of database management system plays an important role in building energy...

Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Sun, D.

2006-01-01

83

Quality management implementation across different scenarios of competitive structure: an empirical investigation  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study aims to determine if there are differences in quality management (QM) implementation across competitive environments and if so, how and why they differ. With these objectives, we develop several propositions relating the competitive environment to QM implementation practices. To test our propositions, we gathered a sample of 273 European managers. We presented 16 different factors of competitive structure

M. M. Fuentes-Fuentes; F. J. Llorns-Montes; C. A. Albacete-Sez

2007-01-01

84

Simulation of Greenhouse Management in the Subtropics, Part II: Scenario Study for the Summer Season  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation of a greenhouse climate management strategy to local climate conditions is important for the improvement of resource use efficiency of greenhouse crop production. In this paper the optimal greenhouse climate management under hot, humid, subtropical summer conditions was investigated through simulation analysis based on the Greenhouse Process (KASPRO) model, previously validated under this particular conditions. The study was limited

Weihong Luo; Cecilia Stanghellini; Jianfeng Dai; Xiaohan Wang; Hendrik Feije de Zwart; Chongxing Bu

2005-01-01

85

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

86

Nasal Foreign Bodies: A Review of Management Strategies and a Clinical Scenario Presentation  

PubMed Central

We report a case of a toothbrush head lodged into the nasal cavity, which required an external rhinoplasty for retrieval. A review of the literature on management strategies in case of nasal foreign bodies is presented. PMID:22379507

Patil, Pavan M.; Anand, Rajeev

2011-01-01

87

Simulation of Greenhouse Management in the Subtropics, Part I: Model Validation and Scenario Study for the Winter Season  

Microsoft Academic Search

Adaptation of greenhouse climate management strategy to local climatic conditions is very important for the improvement of resource use efficiency of greenhouse crop production. The objective of this study was to explore alternatives to the existing Venlo-type greenhouse climate control policy under Chinese subtropical climate conditions, through simulation analysis using the Greenhouse Process (KASPRO) model. Experiments were carried out in

Weihong Luo; Hendrik Feije de Zwart; Jianfeng DaiI; Xiaohan Wang; Cecilia Stanghellini; Chongxing Bu

2005-01-01

88

Agricultural groundwater management in the Upper Bhima Basin, India: current status and future scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The basaltic aquifers of the Upper Bhima River Basin in Southern India are heavily utilized for small-scale agriculture but face increasing demand-related pressures along with uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. To evaluate likely groundwater resource impacts over the coming decades, a regional groundwater flow model for the basin was developed. Model predictions of different climate change and abstraction scenarios indicate continuation of current rates of abstraction would lead to significant groundwater overdraft, with groundwater elevations predicted to fall by -6 m over the next three decades. Groundwater elevations can however be stabilized, but would require 20-30% of the mean surface water discharge from the basin to be recharged to groundwater, along with reductions in pumping (5-10%) brought about by improved water efficiency practices and/or shifts towards lower-water use crops. Modest reductions in pumping alone cannot stabilize groundwater levels; targeted conjunctive use and improved water use efficiency are also needed.

Surinaidu, L.; Bacon, C. G. D.; Pavelic, P.

2012-09-01

89

Pomace waste management scenarios in Qubec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.  

PubMed

Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. PMID:21733627

Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

2011-09-15

90

Quality assurance in model based water management - review of existing practice and outline of new approaches  

Microsoft Academic Search

Quality assurance (QA) is defined as protocols and guidelines to support the proper application of models. In the water management context we classify QA guidelines according to how much focus is put on the dialogue between the modeller and the water manager as: (Type 1) Internal technical guidelines developed and used internally by the modeller's organisation; (Type 2) Public technical

Jens Christian Refsgaard; Hans Jrgen Henriksen; William G. Harrar; Huub Scholten; Ayalew Kassahun

2005-01-01

91

Simulation of Future Land Use for Water Management - Assessing the suitability of scenario-based modelling  

Microsoft Academic Search

The problem of water shortage is increasingly getting attention within the field of water management, even in the wet Netherlands. Clean ground and surface water may become too scarce to allow for sustainable use for various functions. In order to assess the magnitude of this problem a water shortage study has been started in the Netherlands, in which the impact

Jasper Dekkers; Eric Koomen

2005-01-01

92

Dynamic and secure management of VPNs in IPv6 multi-domain scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

IPsec-based VPN solutions today run mainly in the IPv4 environment and it is important that they have the capability of being upgraded to IPv6 to remain interoperable in next generation Internet. Two of the key components of every VPN solution are the trust management system used to secure the VPN establishment process and the policy mechanism used to control the

Gregorio Martnez Prez; Gabriel Lpez Milln; Flix J. Garca Clemente; Antonio F. Gmez-skarmeta

2006-01-01

93

Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

Munson, John B.

1988-01-01

94

Agricultural groundwater management in the Upper Bhima Basin, India: current status and future scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The basaltic aquifers of the Upper Bhima River basin in southern India are heavily utilized for small-scale agriculture but face increasing demand-related pressures along with uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. To evaluate likely groundwater resource impacts over the coming decades, a regional groundwater flow model for the basin was developed. Model predictions associated with different climate change and abstraction scenarios indicate that the continuation of current rates of abstraction would lead to significant groundwater overdraft, with groundwater elevations predicted to fall by -6 m over the next three decades. Groundwater elevations can however be stabilized, but would require 20-30% of the mean surface water discharge from the basin to be recharged to groundwater, along with reductions in pumping (5-10%) brought about by improved water efficiency practices and/or shifts towards lower-water use crops. Modest reductions in pumping alone cannot stabilize groundwater levels; targeted conjunctive use and improved water use efficiency are also needed.

Surinaidu, L.; Bacon, C. G. D.; Pavelic, P.

2013-02-01

95

Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single Family Homes (Revised)  

SciTech Connect

This document focuses on managing the driving forces which move air and moisture across the building envelope. While other previously published Measure Guidelines focus on elimination of air pathways, the ultimate goal of this Measure Guideline is to manage drivers which cause air flow and water vapor transport across the building envelope (and also within the home), control air infiltration, keep relative humidity (RH) within acceptable limits, avoid combustion safety problems, improve occupant comfort, and reduce house energy use.

Cummings, J.; Withers, C.; Martin, E.; Moyer, N.

2012-10-01

96

Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes  

SciTech Connect

This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

2012-12-01

97

Assessing a decade of phosphorus management in the Lake Mendota, Wisconsin watershed and scenarios for enhanced phosphorus management  

Microsoft Academic Search

A phosphorus (P) budget was estimated for the watershed of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, to assess the effects of nutrient management\\u000a on P accumulation in the watershed soils. We estimated how nutrient management programs and legislation have affected the\\u000a budget by comparing the budget for 2007 to a budget calculated for 1995, prior to implementation of the programs. Since 1995,\\u000a inputs

Emily L. Kara; Chad Heimerl; Tess Killpack; Matthew C. Van de Bogert; Hiroko Yoshida; Stephen R. Carpenter

98

Latency Requirements in M2M Application Scenarios Project Manager: Raymond Knopp , Eurecom  

E-print Network

communication in LTE/LTE-Advanced Reduce energy consumption for M2M devices Co-existence of M2M/Gaming traffics services locally The client is directly attached via the access networks to the gaming server itself II : 15 ­ 150 ms M2M Capillary : 4.5 ­ 25 ms M2M Application : 1 ­ 3 ms Virtual Race in Machine Gaming M2M

Gesbert, David

99

Sustainable transboundary groundwater management under shifting political scenarios: the Ceylanpinar Aquifer and TurkeySyria relations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent scholarship evaluates how peace and conflict affect resource sustainability. The authors of this article address how enhanced TurkeySyria cooperation could impact management of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer, which flows beneath both countries and accounts for over10% of Turkey's transboundary groundwater discharge. Although the EuphratesTigris river system apportionment has been critical for bilateral relations, allocation of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer has been

Mehmet ztan; Mark Axelrod

2011-01-01

100

Role of Exercise in the Management of Diabetes Mellitus: the Global Scenario  

PubMed Central

Background Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. Methods Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms type 2 diabetes mellitus, type 2 DM, exercise, and/or physical activity, and type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise. Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. Results Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%). Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA) showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. Conclusion Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM. PMID:24236181

Thent, Zar Chi; Das, Srijit; Henry, Leonard Joseph

2013-01-01

101

Markov game for autonomic joint radio resource management in a multi-operator scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article addresses the autonomy of joint radio resource management (JRRM) between heterogeneous radio access technologies (RATs) owned by multiple operators. By modeling the inter-operator competition as a general-sum Markov game, correlated-Q learning (CE-Q) is introduced to generate the operators' pricing and admission policies at the correlated equilibrium autonomically. The heterogeneity in terms of coverage, service suitability, and cell capacity

Yong-jing ZHANG; Yue-wei LIN

2007-01-01

102

The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenario analyses  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher.

Lazzari, P.; Mattia, G.; Solidoro, C.; Salon, S.; Crise, A.; Zavatarelli, M.; Oddo, P.; Vichi, M.

2014-07-01

103

Patient empowerment by the means of citizen-managed Electronic Health Records: web 2.0 health digital identity scenarios.  

PubMed

With the advent of more sophisticated and comprehensive healthcare information systems, system builders are becoming more interested in patient interaction and what he can do to help to improve his own health care. Information systems play nowadays a crucial and fundamental role in hospital work-flows, thus providing great opportunities to introduce and improve upon "patient empowerment" processes for the personalization and management of Electronic Health Records (EHRs). In this paper, we present a patient's privacy generic control mechanisms scenarios based on the Extended OpenID (eOID), a user centric digital identity provider previously developed by our group, which leverages a secured OpenID 2.0 infrastructure with the recently released Portuguese Citizen Card (CC) for secure authentication in a distributed health information environment. eOID also takes advantage of Oauth assertion based mechanisms to implement patient controlled secure qualified role based access to his EHR, by third parties. PMID:20543356

Falco-Reis, Filipa; Correia, Manuel E

2010-01-01

104

[Occupational health and safety management systems: scenarios and perspectives for occupational physicians].  

PubMed

This paper analyzes the role of the occupational physicians, taking into account the new Italian legislation within the frame of CSR, that puts in a new light the physicians inside the Organizations. In this context, Occupational Medicine and Workplace Health Promotion play a central role in most of the items of the Occupational Health and safety management systems, from H&S politics to training, from First Aid to audit and revision systems. From this innovative perspective, the authors try to identify the occupational physician's new challenges and opportunities. PMID:19288796

Santantonio, P; Casciani, M; Bartolucci, G B

2008-01-01

105

Research on solid waste management system: to improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey.  

PubMed

Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars. PMID:16112565

Tinmaz, Esra; Demir, Ibrahim

2006-01-01

106

Intelligent web caching using document life histories: A comparison with existing cache management techniques  

Microsoft Academic Search

Hierarchical storage of web pages in proxy server and client browser caches introduce coherence problems, which require cache management techniques which are both accurate and computationally efficient. We suggest that current approaches, such as the most common Least Recently Used (LRU) technique, are inadequate for future network loads as they do not incorporate the dynamics of document selection and modification.

Mike Reddy; Graham P. Fletcher

1998-01-01

107

From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.  

PubMed

Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torro reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torro reservoir is located in the Tmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torro reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

2014-03-01

108

Exposure scenarios for workers  

Microsoft Academic Search

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the

Hans Marquart; Christine Northage; Chris Money

2007-01-01

109

Example Scenarios  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This section explores several hypothetical scenarios of nuclear-weapon detonations on U.S. cities. These scenarios are meant to illustrate the possibilities of such events. Scenarios include a "what-if" scenario of a 150-kiloton nuclear explosion by terrorists on New York City, and the effects of a nuclear accident or "broken arrow" on board a nuclear submarine in San Francisco Bay.

Griffith, Christopher

110

Scenario Testing  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This subset of the Black Box Software Testing collection includes resources to teach Scenario Testing. The scenario test involves a story about how the program is used, including information about the motivations of the people involved. The Soap Opera emphasizes the human issues, even beyond the traditional scenario. Resources include lecture videos, slides, activities, suggested readings, and study guide materials.

Kaner, Cem; Fiedler, Rebecca L.

2011-06-01

111

Software Health Management: A Short Review of Challenges and Existing Techniques  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Modern spacecraft (as well as most other complex mechanisms like aircraft, automobiles, and chemical plants) rely more and more on software, to a point where software failures have caused severe accidents and loss of missions. Software failures during a manned mission can cause loss of life, so there are severe requirements to make the software as safe and reliable as possible. Typically, verification and validation (V&V) has the task of making sure that all software errors are found before the software is deployed and that it always conforms to the requirements. Experience, however, shows that this gold standard of error-free software cannot be reached in practice. Even if the software alone is free of glitches, its interoperation with the hardware (e.g., with sensors or actuators) can cause problems. Unexpected operational conditions or changes in the environment may ultimately cause a software system to fail. Is there a way to surmount this problem? In most modern aircraft and many automobiles, hardware such as central electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components are monitored by IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) systems. These systems can recognize, isolate, and identify faults and failures, both those that already occurred as well as imminent ones. With the help of diagnostics and prognostics, appropriate mitigation strategies can be selected (replacement or repair, switch to redundant systems, etc.). In this short paper, we discuss some challenges and promising techniques for software health management (SWHM). In particular, we identify unique challenges for preventing software failure in systems which involve both software and hardware components. We then present our classifications of techniques related to SWHM. These classifications are performed based on dimensions of interest to both developers and users of the techniques, and hopefully provide a map for dealing with software faults and failures.

Pipatsrisawat, Knot; Darwiche, Adnan; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Schumann, Johann

2009-01-01

112

Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)  

SciTech Connect

Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

2010-12-01

113

This issue 1 Reduced Costs, Improved Outcomes: An Executive Overview of Enterprise Architecture and Project Portfolio Management 5 IT Strategic Planning with Future Scenarios and Critical Success Factors  

E-print Network

This issue 1 Reduced Costs, Improved Outcomes: An Executive Overview of Enterprise Architecture and Project Portfolio Management 5 IT Strategic Planning with Future Scenarios and Critical Success Factors 7 opportunities, allow- ing them to make value-driven decisions quickly as the An executive overview of enterprise

Petrick, Irene J.

114

Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.  

PubMed

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-09-01

115

Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China  

PubMed Central

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of Treatment after Pollution has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-01-01

116

Hydrogeologic data for existing excavations and the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada  

SciTech Connect

The Special Projects Section of Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., Inc. is responsible for characterizing the subsurface geology and hydrology of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Waste Management Division. Geologic description, in situ testing, and laboratory analyses of alluvium exposed in existing excavations are important subparts to the Area 5 Site Characterization Program designed to determine the suitability of the RWMS for disposal of low level waste mixed waste and transuranic waste. The primary purpose of the Existing Excavation Project is two-fold: first, to characterize important hydrologic properties of the near surface alluvium, thought to play an important role in the infiltration and redistribution of water and solutes through the upper unsaturated zone at the Area 5 RWMS; and second, to provide guidance for the design of future sampling and testing programs. The justification for this work comes from the state of Nevada review of the original DOE/NV Part B Permit application submitted in 1988 for disposal of mixed wastes at the RWMS. The state of Nevada determined that the permit was deficient in characterization data concerning the hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone. DOE/NV agreed with the state and proposed the study of alluvium exposed in existing excavations as one step toward satisfying these important site characterization data requirements. Other components of the site characterization process include the Science Trench Borehole and Pilot Well Projects.

Not Available

1993-12-01

117

Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh  

PubMed Central

Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

2013-01-01

118

Analysis of Transport Logistics and Routing Requirements for Radioactive Waste Management Systems with Respect to a Minimum Power Scenario.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This report assesses the transport logistics associated with disposal of intermediate-level radioactive waste, as generated by CEGB, SSEB, UKAEA and BNFL, in accordance with a 'Minimum Power Scenario'. Transport by road and rail is analysed, as in previou...

I. A. James

1984-01-01

119

Scenario planning.  

PubMed

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. PMID:21371667

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

120

Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario  

SciTech Connect

Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - KIT, Hermann-von-Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

2013-07-01

121

The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The U.S. Geological Surveys (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be delivered via the EHP web pages in a user-searchable archive. In addition, we aim to duplicate most of the real-time earthquake event web page functionality for scenario drills and exercises, including all standard post-earthquake information tools. Hence, for each event, USGS PAGER runs will be produced, providing population exposure at current population levels, and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will produce HAZUS impact assessments. Anticipated users include FEMA, the loss modeling and insurance communities, emergency responders and mitigation planners (city, county, state, industry, utilities, corporate), the general public and the media. The Earthquake Scenario Project will also take on several pending scientific challenges related to scenario generation, including ways to include fault directivity, numerical ground motions, and ways to produce ground motion uncertainties (in addition to median peak ground motions). A parallel though less comprehensive effort is underway to produce scenarios for targeted regions and events around the globe.

Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

2009-12-01

122

The implications of using large ensembles of climate scenarios for the management of river ecology in an English chalk stream  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change is likely to impact on freshwater ecology, the delivery of regulatory commitments to ecological status and the management of water resources. It is becoming increasingly important for European environment agencies to use and develop methods to aid planning and abstraction licensing procedures and policies in the face of climate change and with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive. Studies have been carried out in the past to investigate the implications of climate change for biodiversity. However, predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, an area which has not been dealt with in great depth in the past. This study has been undertaken to draw on the results of new methodologies to address the uncertainties inherent in modelling future climate and assess their usability for decision-making in water resources allocations specifically in considering interactions between flow and invertebrate communities The River Itchen was chosen as the case study catchment on the strength of having a long-term coupled ecological and flow dataset and having been an area of intensive study in the past. It is a chalk stream located in the south of England and a candidate Special Area of Conservation. It has also been designated a Special Site of Scientific Interest achieved due to the number of rare species, and the richness of the macro-invertebrate community in the river catchment. An ensemble of 246 transient simulations for future climate was obtained from ClimatePrediction.net which were then used to drive a rainfall-runoff model. In order to link the modelled river flow to ecology, the Lotic Invertebrate Flow Evaluation score has been used where the invertebrate community is linked to flow largely through sensitivity to water velocity and siltation, driven by flow variability at sites with fixed channel dimensions The large ensemble of climate scenarios and thereby flow and ecological indices allows the exploration of the risk of the river of not meeting environmental flow targets in the future. Three sets of environmental flow targets which were drawn up by the Environment Agency for England and Wales for the River Itchen were tested and show that it may be difficult to maintain a natural chalk stream invertebrate community in the River Itchen in the future. The ensemble also shows low flows regularly extending from August to December which could result in the loss of a high proportion of individuals recruited that year. This would in turn lead to diminished over-wintering populations, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the following years breeding and recruitment programme. Due to a paucity of quantitative data for the response of macroinvertebrates to multi-year droughts, to provide a richer story, a matrix has been proposed for analysing the effects on biodiversity of the river which combines both the thresholds derived previously and expert opinion on how the ecology of the River Itchen will react to climate change. The matrices also provide a more accessible way of communicating rather complex information to a wider community of decision-makers. Should large changes in flow arise in the future it is likely that some form of action will be taken to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of climate change. Maintaining the ecological status of the river throug river support, i.e. augmenting river flow by pumping from the groundwater aquifer, has also been investigated. However, by augmenting the flow, the high flows are also reduced which can be important for scouring the river bed and removing silt to the benefit of the invertebrate community. Therefore at some point further augmentation may need to be curtailed in order to maintain high flows.

Fung, C. F.; Lopez, A.; New, M.

2009-04-01

123

PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &  

E-print Network

air pollution in conjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty" "The IEA will advise- carbonised by 2050 De-carbonising transport will take longer but must be achieved in the second half Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Power Generation ACT Scenarios 2050 +137% #12;INTERNATIONAL

124

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities,

Franklin Dexter; Ruth E Wachtel; Richard H Epstein

2011-01-01

125

A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: The case of an Italian urban area.  

PubMed

Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process. PMID:25008299

Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

2014-11-01

126

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

127

Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

2013-04-01

128

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study  

SciTech Connect

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

1990-09-01

129

Use of primary corticosteroid injection in the management of plantar fasciopathy: is it time to challenge existing practice?  

PubMed

Plantar fasciopathy (PF) is characterized by degeneration of the fascia at the calcaneal enthesis. It is a common cause of foot pain, accounting for 90% of clinical presentations of heel pathology. In 2009-2010, 9.3 million working days were lost in England due to musculoskeletal disorders, with 2.4 million of those attributable to lower-limb disorders, averaging 16.3 lost working days per case. Numerous studies have attempted to establish the short- and long-term clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections in the management of PF. Earlier studies have not informed clinical practice. As the research base has developed, evidence has emerged supporting clinical efficacy. With diverse opinions surrounding the etiology and efficacy debate, there does not seem to be a consensus of opinion on a common treatment pathway. For example, in England, the National Institute for Clinical Health and Excellence does not publish strategic guidance for clinical practice. Herein, we review and evaluate core literature that examines the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injection as a treatment for PF. Outcome measures were wide ranging but largely yielded results supportive of the short- and long-term benefits of this modality. The analysis also looked to establish, where possible, "proof of concept." This article provides evidence supporting the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections, in particular those guided by imaging technology. The evidence challenges existing orthodoxy, which marginalizes this treatment as a secondary option. This challenge is supported by recently revised guidelines published by the American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons advocating corticosteroid injection as a primary treatment option. PMID:24072372

Kirkland, Paul; Beeson, Paul

2013-01-01

130

Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

2013-04-01

131

Distributed ecohydrological modelling to evaluate irrigation system performance in Sirsa district, India II: Impact of viable water management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study focuses on the identification of appropriate strategies to improve water management and productivity in an irrigated area of 4270 km2 in India (Sirsa district). The field scale ecohydrological model SWAP in combination with field experiments, remote sensing and GIS has been applied in a distributed manner generating the required hydrological and biophysical variables to evaluate alternative water management

R. Singh; R. K. Jhorar; J. C. van Dam; R. A. Feddes

2006-01-01

132

Farmer management of cocoa agroforests in Cameroon: Impacts of decision scenarios on structure and biodiversity of indigenous tree species  

Microsoft Academic Search

Cocoa agroforests are dominant agricultural systems on the forest margins of Cameroon. Their management remains complex involving close interplay and trade-offs in social, ecological, economic and policy questions. To protect the cocoa crop and increase the net livelihood worth of cocoa agroforests, farmers maintain and or integrate diverse indigenous tree species in them. In a broadening context of environmental management

P. Mbile; P. Ngaunkam; M. Besingi; C. Nfoumou; A. Degrande; A. Tsobeng; T. Sado; T. Menimo

2009-01-01

133

Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A method of generating scenarios using differential scenaro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.

Makino, Masayuki; Ohnishi, Atsushi

134

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

135

Refinement and Management Recommendations of Mobile Phones The questionnaire below deals with features that currently exist in the mobile phones domain (not  

E-print Network

Refinement and Management Recommendations of Mobile Phones The questionnaire below deals with features that currently exist in the mobile phones domain (not necessarily smart phones). After providing of familiarity with the mobile phones domain: (a) Work in the field (Operation/Development), (b) Work

Reinhartz-Berger, Iris

136

A computerized support system to cooperative training in emergency scenarios management and its application to an oil port domain  

SciTech Connect

The paper describes part of the results achieved in the framework of the MUSTER project (Multi-Users System for Training and Evaluating Environmental Emergency Response). The aim of this project is to define the detailed specifications of a computer based system supporting collaborative training for emergency management. A system prototype has been implemented to support the refinement and improvement of the system specifications.

Balducelli, C.; Bologna, S.; Di Costanzo, G.; Vicoli, G. [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Boero, M. [AUTOMA, Genova (Italy)

1995-12-31

137

Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model  

Microsoft Academic Search

Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called reserve (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers

Herv Lvite; Hilmy Sally; Julien Cour

2003-01-01

138

Economic and ecological implications of alternative brush management and restoration scenarios designed to improve water yield in two Texas watersheds  

E-print Network

. Costs of additional water are lower for sub-basins within the Edwards study area (ranging from $32 to $70 per acre-foot of water added) than in the Twin Buttes (ranging from $63 to $218 per acre-foot), meaning that brush management efforts are more...

Olenick, Keith Layne

2012-06-07

139

Climate Change Adaptation in the U.K. Water Industry: Managers' Perceptions of Past Variability and Future Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply\\/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier

Susan Subak

2000-01-01

140

Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model  

Microsoft Academic Search

Like many river basins in South Africa,water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so- called ''reserve'' (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension,if not difficulty,to water resources management in the basin,especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders

Herve eLe evite; Hilmy Sally; Julien Cour

141

Trophic structure of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in 2000-2006: Insights on the effects of management scenarios for the hake fishery using the IBM trophic model Osmose  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The individual-based trophic model Osmose is applied to the upwelling marine ecosystem off the coast of Peru. The dynamics and life cycle of eight major species of the Peruvian marine ecosystem are explicitly considered in the model. Reference simulations provide an overview of the trophic structure of the Peruvian ecosystem during the period 2000-2006. Results of model calibration and simulations are discussed in the light of current empirical knowledge on the trophic functioning of the Peruvian ecosystem and are compared to outputs obtained recently using the trophic model Ecopath. The impacts on the ecosystem of restoration plans for the depleted hake ( Merluccius gayi peruanus) population are explored through two management scenarios: a) a long term reduction of fishing effort targeting hake and b) a moratorium on the hake fishery. The simulations help better understand the recent failure of a 20 month hake moratorium and provide long-term strategic support to ecosystem-based management. Limits of our approach are discussed and recommendations are detailed for future developments of the Osmose model and ecosystem approach to fishery management in the Peruvian context.

Marzloff, Martin; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Tam, Jorge; Travers, Morgane; Bertrand, Arnaud

2009-01-01

142

Charting the existence and approaches to management of the tattooing and body piercing industry a historical overview  

Microsoft Academic Search

Tattooing and body piercing as ancient body arts have existed throughout the centuries. Wholly human phenomena, they are activities that have human phenomena, they are activities that have been practised in almost all cultures at one time or another (Caplan, 2000) and continue and grow in popularity in modern day Western societies (Camphausen, 1997; Rush 2005).The first of a three-part

Claire Chalmers

2009-01-01

143

77 FR 22337 - Privacy Act of 1974; Amendment to an Existing System of Records, Inventory Management System Also...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Harold Williams, Acting Chief Privacy Officer, telephone number...intends to modify an existing Privacy Act system of records notice...homelessness. Pursuant to the Privacy Act of 1974, as amended...and are accessed through the Internet. The servers are...

2012-04-13

144

Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.  

PubMed

The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790

Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei

2013-11-30

145

Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland  

PubMed Central

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

146

Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

2013-12-01

147

A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

2014-05-01

148

Research on Digitized Scenario for Tactical Internet Simulative Training  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The scenario of Tactical Internet simulative training cant be realized directly through the scenario systems and methods\\u000a in existence. For solving this problem, firstly this paper introduced the new concept called digitized scenario, which can\\u000a describe the meaning of scenario more exactly than the old simulation scenario. Secondly, this paper constructed the framework\\u000a of digitized scenario, and it settled such

Jian-Jun Shen; Hua Tian; Zhi-Chun Gan

2011-01-01

149

Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

Jackman, A. E.; Fabos, J. G.; Carlozzi, C. C.

1982-01-01

150

77 FR 13141 - Notice of Intent To Prepare a Master Leasing Plan, Amendments to the Resource Management Plans...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...will strive to ensure that its management decisions are as consistent as...historical, existing and projected levels, (7) management decisions will consider a range...scenarios and varying mitigation levels based on the relative...

2012-03-05

151

Mobility Modeling of Outdoor Scenarios for MANETs  

Microsoft Academic Search

Mobility of users significantly impacts performance of a mobile ad-hoc network. Most existing simulation tools offer only a few random mobility models, which poorly reflect user movements in outdoor scenarios. For example, they do not consider restrictions of a spatial environment. In this paper, we describe a comprehensive and extensible approach to model mobility of users in outdoor scenarios. It

Illya Stepanov; Pedro Jose Marron; Kurt Rothermel

2005-01-01

152

Management of childhood gastroenteritis in the community  

Microsoft Academic Search

Good evidence-based research exists for the management of gastroenteritis. However, we encountered local anecdotal evidence of wide variations in the management of gastroenteritis.In order to assess the prevailing practice in gastroenteritis management in primary care, in the Tees Health region, an anonymous questionnaire study involving general practitioners (GPs) and health visitors (HVs) was performed. Three case scenarios were presented in

S Rahman; OM Aszkenasy

2001-01-01

153

Preparing for Catastrophic Disasters: Application of Earth Science and Engineering Data, and Loss Scenarios for Emergency Management and Disaster Recovery Planning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catastrophic disasters, either man or nature caused, pose unique challenges to federal, state and local governments. The complex interactions of lifeline disruption, structural damage, and population displacement are difficult to comprehend or predict. As the preparation for and response to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illustrated, forecasting the occurrence of the event does not adequately define the complexity of the consequences. Preparing for the occurrence of a rapid onset disaster that occurs without warning creates additional challenges to the emergency management community. If the event is catastrophic, it will quickly overwhelm local, regional and state resources. The ability to comprehend the magnitude and complexity of such a disruption will also be overwhelmed. The State of California, in order to gain insights into the complexity and demands of a catastrophic earthquake event (historic events include Central California [1906, 1868], Southern California [1857], and possible future events), has partnered with the United States Geological Survey, Charles Kircher and Associates, PBS&J and FEMA to exercise and test the State's response to a catastrophic recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. As Kircher notes in his paper, USGS ground motions, enhanced structure inventories, and FEMA' loss estimation tool, HAZUS, are used to define the impact on the San Francisco Bay Region infrastructure, resources and economy. In November of 2006, this scenario will serve as the structure of a 10-county response exercise that will be played out over 36 continuous hours, replicating lifeline, communications and transportation disruption. The exercise, funded by the California Office of Homeland Security, is the first statewide catastrophic disaster response to be carried out in the State and should serve as both a model for integration of natural hazard information into homeland security planning and for developing training that addresses the complex vulnerability of our urban regions. This paper will describe the process of integrating Kircher's work into capability/capacity building and the testing of catastrophic disaster response in California; as well as the lessons, limitations and assessments of the exercise process.

Eisner, R.

2006-12-01

154

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 1 June 1998 Systems Analysis research programme (tenta- tively titled: Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development). The tentative objective of the research programme is 1) to contribute to the assessment of technological and scientific

155

Research on Digitized Scenario for Tactical Internet Simulative Training  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The scenario of Tactical Internet simulative training can't be realized directly through the scenario systems and methods in existence. For solving this problem, firstly this paper introduced the new concept called digitized scenario, which can describe the meaning of scenario more exactly than the old simulation scenario. Secondly, this paper constructed the framework of digitized scenario, and it settled such issues as composition of digitized scenario system, scenario generating flow and data architecture. Thirdly, this paper built up the general data model for script situation, and it settled the problem of situation setting. Finally, this paper proposed the method of describing scenario files based on eXtensible Markup Language (XML), and it settled such problems as generation, verification and distribution of scenario files. The paper's work has been applied in the Tactical Internet simulative training system, and it also has good directive value to the developing of other communication network simulative training system.

Shen, Jian-Jun; Tian, Hua; Gan, Zhi-Chun

156

FOCUS SURFACE WATER SCENARIOS: INFLUENCE OF SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ON PREDICTED PEAK EXPOSURES  

Microsoft Academic Search

Calculated exposure concentrations in the ten FOCUS Surface Water Scenarios are used to assess whether safe uses of pesticides exist within the EU. The influence of some important scenario defining factors on the peak concentrations was analysed for a FOCUS stream. Factors considered were (i) distance between the last row of crop and the water edge, (ii) choice of drift

157

43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

2011-10-01

158

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

159

Controlling ITER Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The three principal ITER operational scenarios are the 15 MA, 5.3 T, Q=10 inductive scenario, the 1000 s, 10.5-13.5 MA, 5.3 T, Q>5 Hybrid scenario, and the 3000 s, 7.5-10 MA, 5.3 T, Q5 steady-state scenario. Extensive modeling of the inductive scenario indicates that the ITER baseline actuators should be capable of all of the required basic control and that the ITER diagnostic specifications should provide adequate measurements with which to carry out such control. Current ramp-up times as short as 50 s and ramp-down times as low as 60 s are within control limits. Expected plasma disturbances can also be controlled. More advanced control is required for the hybrid and steady-state scenarios. Depending on transport assumptions, some modeling indicates that the baseline actuators should also be capable of achieving the ITER performance goals in the hybrid scenario with modest confinement improvement (H981.2). For steady-state scenarios, it is likely that substantial upgrades to the heating and current drive systems will be required to achieve the high performance and pulse length goals. High confinement (H98<=1.7) is also required to achieve these performance goals, challenging stability limits and requiring simultaneous control of multiple instabilities (e.g., ELMs, NTMs, RWMs) with limited shared actuators. The ITER Plasma Control System is being developed taking into account these challenging control requirements.

Snipes, J. A.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T.; Gribov, Y.; Kim, S.-H.; Winter, A.

2011-11-01

160

Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

2000-01-01

161

Mars base buildup scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

162

COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF  

E-print Network

COMMISSION Michael R. Jaske, Ph.D. Lana Wong Principal Authors Michael R. Jaske, Ph.D. Scenario Project balance and planning reserve margin analysis. In the Results Report, California Energy Commission

163

Sensitivity and Scenario Results  

E-print Network

Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

Yu, Winston

164

Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

Cherry, Gregory S.

2006-01-01

165

Non-Traditional Flight Safety Systems and Integrated Vehicle Health Management Systems. Descriptions of Proposed and Existing Systems and Enabling Technologies and Verification Methods. Final Report.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This paper describes present and future flight safety systems (FSS) and integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) systems relevant to reusable launch vehicle (RLV) design and operation. FSS design and implementation for RLVs in the launch-regime will be...

M. Fudge, T. Stagliano, S. Tsiao

2003-01-01

166

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNLs ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

2013-09-24

167

Modelling scenarios to identify a combined sediment-water management strategy for the large reservoirs of the Tuyamuyun hydro-complex  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper introduces a combined modelling approach using a simple water budget model (THC-model) and a 3D reservoir sedimentation\\u000a model (MOHID Water) to adapt reservoir operation and visualise their effects on the sediment deposition. By this, an effective\\u000a combined sediment-water management can be identified under semi-arid conditions for dry, median and wet years. Results are\\u000a presented for the reservoirs of

Oliver Olsson; Anatoly Sorokin; Malika Ikramova

168

Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.  

PubMed

Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

2013-11-01

169

Monitoring and Modeling Land Use Change and Future Scenarios in the Baltimore - Washington Metropolitan Region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent land use change patterns were mapped with Landsat satellite imagery and used to calibrate a model of future land use change in the Washington, D.C.- Baltimore - Northern Virginia metropolitan region. The SLEUTH cellular automata model, which is spatially explicit, was used to simulate the influence of various policy scenarios and land management practices based on a variety of environmental, transportation, and other data sources. The model was calibrated on four urban extent time steps from 1986-2001 Thematic Mapper imagery and a new impervious surface mapping algorithm developed by the mid-Atlantic Regional Earth Science Applications Center (RESAC) at the University of Maryland. Future growth patterns were predicted based on variable specific growth coefficients derived during the calibration phase. An excluded layer, which is the primary tool used to model different conservation policies, was manipulated to simulate different land conservation scenarios recommended by Chesapeake Bay restoration efforts, both public and private. The three different regional policy scenarios included current trends, smart growth, and environmentally sustainable. The first scenario incorporated current conservation and land use policies, including currently protected lands and identified Priority Funding Areas. In the smart growth scenario, growth was concentrated around existing growth centers and some additional natural resource protection policies were included. The environmentally sustainable development scenario, in addition to focusing growth into existing centers, implemented stricter controls to preclude forest fragmentation, wetland loss, and development adjacent to riparian areas. Results from these three scenarios were assessed and compared, and the sensitivity of the model to cell size and exclusion probabilities was examined.

Goetz, S. J.; Jantz, C.; Smith, A. J.

2001-12-01

170

IPCC SCENARIO DATA  

EPA Science Inventory

This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...

171

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

172

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

2011-01-01

173

Testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB).  

PubMed

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. PMID:24414807

Lindegarth, Mats; Bergstrm, Ulf; Mattila, Johanna; Olenin, Sergej; Ollikainen, Markku; Downie, Anna-Leena; Sundblad, Gran; Bu?as, Martynas; Gullstrm, Martin; Snickars, Martin; von Numers, Mikael; Svensson, J Robin; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa

2014-02-01

174

Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental

Laforcade, Pierre

2007-01-01

175

Environmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment  

E-print Network

.blanc@mines-paristech.fr 1. Introduction The environmental impacts of existing electricity generation systems have already impacts assessment of scenarios is very rarely evaluated through a life cycle perspective partly because Health Impacts for Austria (100% RE scenario) Figure 3 & 4: Process contribution to Climate Change

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

176

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake  

E-print Network

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;iv Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake

Wilcock, William

177

The Assessment of Supply Chain Risk Based on Scenario Analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Quantitative analysis and risk management of supply chain has become more and more difficult with the increasing complexity of the supply chain network structure and the more uncertainties of the external environment. In order to quantitatively assess the level of risk in the supply chain, scenario analysis method is introduced in this paper, by identifying risk factors, building different scenarios

Fen Jiang

2011-01-01

178

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building  

SciTech Connect

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-07-09

179

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

180

EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL  

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

181

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling  

Microsoft Academic Search

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a

Jeroen Keppens; Burkhard Schafer

2006-01-01

182

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.  

PubMed Central

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

183

Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sbastien

2014-10-01

184

Scenario-Based Tasks  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page from The Experiential Learning Center provides a number of scenario-based tasks for use in the classroom or for professional development training. The materials are freely available for download and use and would be applicable to learners in a variety of subjects including software development, faculty professional development, office system applications/ICT, biology/bioinformatics, environmental studies, Python programming, engineering, network security/MIS, computational thinking and English writing. Instructor guides and other classroom instructional materials are provided. The project requests that educators let them know when these materials are used in order to track dissemination of the work and in order to inform the community about upcoming workshops and presentations.

2012-10-09

185

Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia's largest river.  

PubMed

Management of natural resources, particularly water, increasingly requires that likely benefits of particular actions (e.g., allocating an environmental flow) are quantified in advance. Therefore, new techniques are required that enable those potential benefits to be objectively compared among competing options for management (e.g., compared to a "do nothing" scenario). Scenario modeling is one method for developing such an objective comparison. We used existing hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem response models for a case study location, the Coorong, an inverse estuary in South Australia, to illustrate the potential for such scenario modeling to inform natural resource management. We modeled a set of 12 scenarios that included different levels of water extraction, potential future climate change, and sea-level change, thereby enabling a comparison of the different drivers of possible future reductions in water availability in the Coorong. We discovered that potential future climate change combined with current extraction levels has the capacity to devastate the ecology of the Coorong, but also that much of the degradation could be averted by reducing upstream extractions of water. The inclusion of possible sea-level change had a surprising effect, whereby higher sea levels increased hydrodynamic connectivity between the Coorong's two lagoons. Increased hydrodynamic connectivity limited the occurrence of extremely low water levels and high salinities due to evapoconcentration that were simulated for dry future climates in the absence of sea-level rise. These findings strongly suggest that future ecological degradation in the Coorong is not a foregone conclusion, and that management decisions regarding water allocations upstream will determine the ecological future of this coastal lagoon. PMID:23967570

Lester, Rebecca E; Fairweather, Peter G; Webster, Ian T; Quin, Rebecca A

2013-07-01

186

5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT...Labor-Management Relations 9701.506 Impact on existing...

2011-01-01

187

5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT...Labor-Management Relations 9701.506 Impact on existing...

2010-01-01

188

Eastern Europe scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Russian situation is key to Eastern Europe if present trends continue. Its strategy for the establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle was conceived decades ago when the former USSR still existed. It was based on the fuel recycle with attention given to the requirements of the military. The former Warsaw Pact Countries (WPC) were not meant to have independent

Hafele

1996-01-01

189

Does mirror matter exist?  

E-print Network

One of the most fascinating ideas coming from particle physics is the concept of mirror matter. Mirror matter is a new form of matter which is predicted to exist if mirror symmetry is respected by nature. At the preset time evidence that mirror matter actually exists is in abundance, coming from a range of observations and experiments in astronomy, particle physics, meteoritics and planetary science.

Robert Foot

2002-07-14

190

Genetic Scenarios and Toothpickase  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This unit is a modification of one written by Edward Kloza and Paula Haddow, published by GENESYStems and funded in part by the Foundation for Blood Research. The unit is a series of soap opera type scenarios that present various genetic defects as they are discovered in a make believe family. As each defect is discovered it is discussed and the pertinent information about that defect is given. The characters soon took on a life of their own. They moved to Texas, went to UT, and developed a whole new set of disorders and problems. As I moved into my next unit, the human genome, I found they came along. It seemed that no matter what we were discussing it could be tied into this family in some way. Toothpickase is an activity in which one member of a pair of students, the enzyme toothpickase, is blindfolded and asked to break toothpicks while the other team member records results. Reaction rates, substrate concentration, allosteric inhibition can all be modeled.

BEGIN:VCARD VERSION:2.1 FN:Betty Ann Wonderly N:Ann Wonderly;Betty ORG:The Hockaday School REV:2005-04-19 END:VCARD

1994-07-30

191

Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.  

SciTech Connect

In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

Darby, John L.

2007-03-01

192

Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model  

PubMed Central

Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic). Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS) doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by the imagination of the trainers. Significant effort is made to put the participants into "the Zone" - the psychological mindset, where they believe they are in a realistic setting and treating a real patient, so that they gain the most from each teaching session. The method can be used for learning new skills, communication and leadership as well as maintaining existing skills. Conclusion The method described is a low technology, low cost alternative to high technology simulation which may provide a useful adjunct to delivering effective training when properly prepared and delivered. We find this useful for both induction and regular training of pre-hospital trauma care providers. PMID:20230636

2010-01-01

193

44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01...Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...

2011-10-01

194

44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01...Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...

2013-10-01

195

Existence of Optical Vortices  

E-print Network

Optical vortices arise as phase singularities of the light fields and are of central interest in modern optical physics. In this paper, some existence theorems are established for stationary vortex wave solutions of a general class of nonlinear Schr\\"{o}dinger equations. There are two types of results. The first type concerns the existence of positive-radial-profile solutions which are obtained through a constrained minimization approach. The second type addresses the existence of saddle-point solutions through a mountain-pass-theorem or min-max method so that the wave propagation constant may be arbitrarily prescribed in an open interval. Furthermore some explicit estimates for the lower bound and sign of the wave propagation constant with respect to the light beam power and vortex winding number are also derived for the first type solutions.

Yisong Yang; Ruifeng Zhang

2012-09-07

196

The changing nutrition scenario  

PubMed Central

The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and Green Revolution fatigue. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and hidden hunger from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

Gopalan, C.

2013-01-01

197

Socioeconomic data generated to support alternative waste handling scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The US Department of Energy is investigating the effect on the nation`s resources of choosing different waste management strategies. This information was recently published in a Draft Programmatic Impact Statement. This paper discusses how the socioeconomic parameters presented in that document were determined for a variety of different waste management scenarios.

Bromley, W.D.; Feizollahi, F.; Shropshire, D.E.; Sherick, M.J.

1995-12-31

198

Existing Outcomes Social Scientific  

E-print Network

, such as critical thinking and analytical capabilities, essential for moving on to higher levels of inquiry/or organizations, and their interactions; · applying critical thinking skills and analytical capabilitiesSB #4404 Existing Outcomes Social Scientific Upon completion of the Social Scientific Mode

Gering, Jon C.

199

Does Unconscious Racism Exist?  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This essay argues for the existence of a form of unconscious racism. Research on implicit prejudice provides good evidence that most persons have deeply held negative associations with minority groups that can lead to subtle discrimination without conscious awareness. The evidence for implicit attitudes is briefly reviewed. Criticisms of the

Quillian, Lincoln

2008-01-01

200

Probing unification scenarios with atomic clocks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We discuss the usage of measurements of the stability of natures fundamental constants coming from comparisons between atomic clocks as a means to constrain coupled variations of these constants in a broad class of unification scenarios. After introducing the phenomenology of these models, we provide updated constraints based on a global analysis of the latest experimental results. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ??/?=(0.685.79)10-16yr-1 and for the gyromagnetic factor g?p/gp=(-0.720.89)10-16yr-1 (both of these being at the 95% confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios, but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

Ferreira, M. C.; Julio, M. D.; Martins, C. J. A. P.; Monteiro, A. M. R. V. L.

2012-12-01

201

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios  

E-print Network

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels

202

Mobile Social Media Service Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Mobile social media services are in a technology selection stage with no clear dominant design. Experimentation is very common, and many service concepts are failing to find a valid business model. We have studied current mobile social media services and categorized them into four distinct scenarios. One of the scenarios does not have any current commercial services, which is seen

O. Makinen; S. Luukkainen

2009-01-01

203

Futures Scenario in Science Learning  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

204

Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the Great Lakes simulation model was computationally demanding, the model pre-emption strategy was also utilized in conjunction with DDS to reduce the computational burden. The system with the existing two control structures managed by the current regulation plans was considered as a baseline (base case) of assessment. Simulation results demonstrate that the regulation plans developed can substantially reduce the frequency of extreme water levels and reduce the magnitude of extreme violations in multiple extreme water supply scenarios across the system relative to the base case regulation strategy. The regulation plan was also shown to be robust against other unseen extreme future climate scenarios. Moreover, the system simulation results under various future climate scenarios suggest that even the system controlled by four structures might be unable to fully mitigate the negative impacts associated with extreme water levels.

Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

2011-12-01

205

Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.  

PubMed

Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

Eason, Martin P

2013-01-01

206

Background Studies for EXIST  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

We present results from a study of the trapped proton and electron background for several orbital inclinations and altitudes. This study includes time dependent effects. In addition we describe a 3 component cosmic background model developed at the University of Southampton, UK. The three components are cosmic diffuse gamma rays, atmospheric albedo gamma rays, and cosmic ray protons. We present examples of how this model was applied to BATSE and discuss its application to EXIST.

Wilson, Colleen A.; Pendleton, G. N.; Fishman, G. J.

2004-01-01

207

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a

A. Wein

2010-01-01

208

On the existence of truly autonomic computing systems and the link with quantum computing  

E-print Network

A theoretical model of truly autonomic computing systems (ACS), with infinitely many constraints, is proposed. An argument similar to Turing's for the unsolvability of the halting problem, which is permitted in classical logic, shows that such systems cannot exist. Turing's argument fails in the recently proposed non-Aristotelian finitary logic (NAFL), which permits the existence of ACS. NAFL also justifies quantum superposition and entanglement, which are essential ingredients of quantum algorithms, and resolves the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox in favour of quantum mechanics and non-locality. NAFL requires that the autonomic manager (AM) must be conceptually and architecturally distinct from the managed element, in order for the ACS to exist as a non-self-referential entity. Such a scenario is possible if the AM uses quantum algorithms and is protected from all problems by (unbreakable) quantum encryption, while the managed element remains classical. NAFL supports such a link between autonomic and quantum computing, with the AM existing as a metamathematical entity. NAFL also allows quantum algorithms to access truly random elements and thereby supports non-standard models of quantum (hyper-) computation that permit infinite parallelism.

Radhakrishnan Srinivasan; H. P. Raghunandan

2004-11-25

209

Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

2014-10-01

210

Eastern Europe scenario  

SciTech Connect

The Russian situation is key to Eastern Europe if present trends continue. Its strategy for the establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle was conceived decades ago when the former USSR still existed. It was based on the fuel recycle with attention given to the requirements of the military. The former Warsaw Pact Countries (WPC) were not meant to have independent fuel cycles, and their irradiated fuel elements were scheduled to go back to Russian territory. In 1976 a fuel cycle center was built at Mayak/Chelyabinsk, centered on the RT-1 plant with a nominal capacity of 400 tonnes/yr plant for the reprocessing of spent fuel from VVER-440 reactors, fast reactors (BN-350 and BN-600) icebreaker and submarine transport units, research reactors, and other power units. The plan provided for the reprocessing of spent fuel from the WPC all having VVER-440 reactors. All together, 3000 tonnes of spent fuel have been processed there. Nuclear waste went to vitrification. A new reprocessing facility is under construction in the neighborhood of Krasnoyarsk 26, the RT-2 plant. It is scheduled to operate after 2005, and its design capacity is 1500 tonne/yr. A storage for 6000 tonnes of spent fuel from VVER-1000 reactors is in operation since 1985. A second mixed-oxide plant for VVER-1000 reactors is under consideration. Now, there are no fuel cycle facilities in the newly independent countries. The fuel cycle problems in Eastern Europe and Russia are discussed.

Hafele, W. [Research Center Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany)

1996-12-31

211

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

212

Do Black Holes Exist?  

E-print Network

We discuss and compare definitions of a black hole based on the existence of event and apparent horizons. In this connection we present a non-singular model of a black hole with a closed apparent horizon and discuss its properties. We propose a massive thin shell model for consistent description of particles creation in black holes. Using this model we demonstrate that for black holes with mass much larger than the Planckian one the backreaction of the domain, where the particles are created, on the black hole parameters is negligibly small.

Frolov, Valeri P

2014-01-01

213

Does chondroid chordoma exist?  

PubMed

The existence of chondroid chordoma (CC), initially described in 1973, has remained controversial. Since the antigenic profiles of both chordoma (CD) and cartilaginous (chondroid) lesions have been well characterized, we decided to study chondroid chordoma immunohistochemically. Our hypothesis was that chondroid chordoma should display a hybrid or mixed pattern of staining: chordomatous areas with an epithelial phenotype and cartilaginous areas with a mesenchymal (non-epithelial) phenotype. An analysis of CC (seven cases) was performed and compared with results obtained on notochord, cartilage, classic CD (18 cases), peripheral chondromas (two cases), and peripheral chondrosarcomas (CS, eight cases). Four epithelial markers were employed: MKER and AE-1 (both monoclonal antibodies to cytokeratin); PKER (a polyclonal antibody to cytokeratin); and, EMA (epithelial membrane antigen). In addition, selected cases were tested for the presence of neurofilament (NF) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). All 18 CD's exhibited the expected epithelial immunophenotype - MKER+, AE-1+, PKER+, and EMA+ - a reaction pattern nearly identical to that found in fetal notochord. This reinforced the importance of the growth pattern in assessing the presence of chordomatous elements. All chondromas and CS's failed to express any of the epithelial markers studied and contained only S-100 immunoreactivity, like cartilage. Chondroid chordoma resembled cartilaginous tumors immunohistochemically; no mixed pattern with even focal epithelial marker reactivity was identified. All CC tested were also NF and GFAP negative. We conclude that CC either does not exist or is extremely rare and that these tumors are cartilaginous in nature.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:2436434

Brooks, J J; LiVolsi, V A; Trojanowski, J Q

1987-01-01

214

Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios  

E-print Network

This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses ...

Margolis, Robert M.

1992-01-01

215

Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs  

SciTech Connect

This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2005-03-30

216

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agencys (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

217

EXIST Perspective for SFXTs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supergiant Fast X-ray Transients (SFXTs) are one of the most interesting (and unexpected) results of the INTEGRAL mission. They are a new class of HMXBs displaying short hard X-ray outbursts (duration less tha a day) characterized by fast flares (few hours timescale) and large dinamic range (10E3-10E4). The physical mechanism driving their peculiar behaviour is still unclear and highly debated: some models involve the structure of the supergiant companion donor wind (likely clumpy, in a spherical or non spherical geometry) and the orbital properties (wide separation with eccentric or circular orbit), while others involve the properties of the neutron star compact object and invoke very low magnetic field values (B < 1E10 G) or alternatively very high (B>1E14 G, magnetars). The picture is still highly unclear from the observational point of view as well: no cyclotron lines have been detected in the spectra, thus the strength of the neutron star magnetic field is unknown. Orbital periods have been measured in only 4 systems, spanning from 3.3 days to 165 days. Even the duty cycle seems to be quite different from source to source. The Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey Telescope (EXIST), with its hard X-ray all-sky survey and large improved limiting sensitivity, will allow us to get a clearer picture of SFXTs. A complete census of their number is essential to enlarge the sample. A long term and continuous as possible X-ray monitoring is crucial to -(1) obtain the duty cycle, -(2 )investigate their unknown orbital properties (separation, orbital period, eccentricity),- (3) to completely cover the whole outburst activity, (4)-to search for cyclotron lines in the high energy spectra. EXIST observations will provide crucial informations to test the different models and shed light on the peculiar behaviour of SFXTs.

Ubertini, Pietro; Sidoli, L.; Sguera, V.; Bazzano, A.

2009-12-01

218

Scalable Heuristics for Stochastic Programming with Scenario ...  

E-print Network

Jul 3, 2008 ... Given a scenario index set S of size |S|, n decision variables, ... this formulation is the ability to select which scenarios are to be considered and which ...... Our work on scenario selection heuristics for stochastic programming...

2008-07-03

219

Scenario-based impact analysis of disaster risks exploring potential implications for disaster prevention strategies in spatial and urban planning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The project deals with scenario techniques to assess, estimate, and communicate the potential consequences of natural disasters on risk governance arrangements. It aims to create a methodology which allows the development of disaster scenarios for different types of natural hazards. This enables relevant stakeholders to derive planning strategies to prevent harmful damage to the community through adequate adaptation. Some main questions in the project are: - How do changing boundary conditions in economic, social and ecological systems influence the significance and the benefit of existent risk analysis as a basis for spatial planning decisions? - Which factors represent or influence the forecast uncertainty of existent extrapolations within the scope of risk analysis? Which of these uncertainties have spatial relevance? (Which go beyond sectoral considerations of risk? Which refer to reservations concerning spatial development? Which influence a community as a whole?) - How can we quantify these uncertainties? Do they change according to altered hazards or vulnerabilities? - How does the explored risk vary, once quantified uncertainties are integrated into current extrapolations? What are the implications for spatial planning activities? - Which software application is suitable to visualize and communicate the scenario methodology? The work is mainly based on existing results of previous hazard analysis and vulnerability studies which have been carried out by the Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) for the federal state of Baden-Wrttemberg. Existing data concern the risk of damages on residential buildings, industrial and traffic infrastructure, social and economic vulnerability. We will link this data with various assumptions of potentially changing economic, social and built environments and visualize those using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Although the scenario methodology is conceived as a multi-hazard oriented and transferable instrument, it may be helpful to demonstrate the methodology for one hazard (e.g. flooding hazards) and with special local conditions in Baden-Wrttemberg.

Lke, J.; Wenzel, F.; Vogt, J.

2009-04-01

220

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

DOE Data Explorer

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

John Sullivan

221

5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.  

...2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities...NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF HANDICAP IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing...

2014-01-01

222

5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities...NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF HANDICAP IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing...

2011-01-01

223

Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

1992-01-01

224

Future Scenarios and Environmental Education  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are

Kopnina, Helen

2014-01-01

225

Description of the Scenario Machine  

E-print Network

We present here an updated description of the "Scenario Machine" code. This tool is used to carry out a population synthesis of binary stars. Previous version of the description can be found at http://xray.sai.msu.ru/~mystery//articles/review/contents.html

V. M. Lipunov; K. A. Postnov; M. E. Prokhorov; A. I. Bogomazov

2007-04-11

226

Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.  

SciTech Connect

Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

Weiner, Ruth F.

2010-09-01

227

Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

Mckay, Mary Fae (editor); Mckay, David S. (editor); Duke, Michael B. (editor)

1992-01-01

228

Consumer exposure scenarios: development, challenges and possible solutions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Exposure scenarios (ES) under REACH (Registration, Evaluation, and Authorisation of Chemicals; new EU legislation) aim to describe safe conditions of product and substance use. Both operational conditions and risk management measures (RMMs) are part of the ES. For consumer use of chemicals, one of the challenges will be to identify all of the consumer uses of a given chemical and

J G M Van Engelen; G Heinemeyer; C Rodriguez; JGM Van Engelenrivm

2007-01-01

229

Children as vulnerable populations in radiological/nuclear events: discussion scenarios.  

PubMed

A workshop to discuss Canada's preparedness to properly manage and treat children during radiological/nuclear (R/N) events was held in Ottawa, Canada, on 1-2 June 2010. This workshop provided a platform for participants of varied backgrounds including medicine, radiological and nuclear physics as well as child care, to discuss the strength and shortcoming of the currently implemented practices and procedures in Canada for the treatment and management of contaminated and/or exposed children during R/N events. To aid this discussion, scenarios (vignettes) involving the malicious use of radiological material were presented and discussed from the perspective of the emergency response focusing specifically on children. From these discussions, it was concluded that the management of children during R/N events is vastly different from the management of adults, and requires a specific set of protocols and procedures, not yet outlined in Canadian documentation. This paper is not meant to discuss existing response protocols during R/N events, but rather to discuss the deficiencies in planning and suggested improvements/revisions raised through discussion at the workshop on how to better manage children during an R/N event. PMID:20924121

Rodrigues, Matthew; Chaput, Joseph; Bellman, Christopher; Cousins, Tom

2010-11-01

230

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

231

Inappropriate referrals at the end of life--the existing Indian scenario.  

PubMed

The Economist Intelligence Unit has ranked India's end-of-life care last out of 40 countries. The lack of orientation towards palliative care, poor communication skills, a disease-focused, curative approach and the unending battle against death-all lead to unrealistic hope in patients and their families. Inappropriate referrals at the end of life are common and result in a lot of avoidable suffering for both the patients and their families. Propagation of clear guidelines to limit inappropriate therapeutic interventions and referrals in patients with limited prognosis is the need of the hour. Awareness, sensitization, education and training in palliative care are urgently required to change attitudes. This would go a long way in mitigating the misery for both the dying and their carers. PMID:24664357

Butola, Savita

2014-08-01

232

Development of the ITER baseline inductive scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sustainment of Q 10 operation with a fusion power of 500 MW for several hundred seconds is a key mission goal of the ITER Project. Past calculations and simulations predict that these conditions can be produced in high-confinement mode operation (H-mode) at 15 MA relying on only inductive current drive. Earlier development of 15 MA baseline inductive plasma scenarios provided a focal point for the ITER Design Review conducted in 2007-2008. In the intervening period, detailed predictive simulations, supported by experimental demonstrations in existing tokamaks, allow us to assemble an end-to-end specification of this scenario consistent with the final design of the ITER device. Simulations have encompassed plasma initiation, current ramp-up, plasma burn and current ramp-down, and have included density profiles and thermal transport models producing temperature profiles consistent with edge pedestal conditions present in current fusion experiments. These quasi-stationary conditions are maintained due to the presence of edge-localized modes that limit the edge pressure. High temperatures and densities in the pedestal region produce significant edge bootstrap current that must be considered in modelling of feedback control of shape and vertical stability. In this paper we present new results of transport simulations fully consistent with the final ITER design that remain within allowed limits for the coil system and power supplies. These self-consistent simulations increase our confidence in meeting the challenges of the ITER program.

Casper, T.; Gribov, Y.; Kavin, A.; Lukash, V.; Khayrutdinov, R.; Fujieda, H.; Kessel, C.; pre="for the"> ITER Organization,

2014-01-01

233

Thermodynamic laws in interacting dark energy scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We discuss the laws of thermodynamics in interacting dark energy scenario. Entropy of the universe is calculated assuming that universe is a closed system. The components of the tachyonic scalar field in the universe are taken to exist in the state of non-equilibrium initially, but due to interaction they undergo a transition towards the equilibrium state. We show that the zeroth law of thermodynamics demands interaction among the components of cosmic field. During such interaction the second law of thermodynamics is governing dynamics in transfer of energy among the three components of the proposed field with local violation of conservation of energy for individual components. It is further shown that, in our proposed mechanism, the interaction itself generates an increase of entropy in an evolving universe and thus it might indicate a possible solution to the well-known entropy problem.

Pathak, Shankar Dayal; Verma, Murli

234

A "midinfrared" scenario for cuprate superconductivity  

PubMed Central

I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

Leggett, A. J.

1999-01-01

235

Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prospects for applications in ITER have been advanced significantly during that time, especially with respect to experimental results. The principal findings of this research activity are as follows. Inductive scenarios capable of higher normalized pressure (?N ? 2.4) than the ITER baseline scenario (?N = 1.8) with normalized confinement at or above the standard H-mode scaling are well established under stationary conditions on the four largest diverted tokamaks (AUG, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U), demonstrated in a database of more than 500 plasmas from these tokamaks analysed here. The parameter range where high performance is achieved is broad in q95 and density normalized to the empirical density limit. MHD modes can play a key role in reaching stationary high performance, but also define the limits to achieved stability and confinement. Projection of performance in ITER from existing experiments uses empirical scalings and theory-based modelling. The status of the experimental validation of both approaches is summarized here. The database shows significant variation in the energy confinement normalized to standard H-mode confinement scalings, indicating the possible influence of additional physics variables absent from the scalings. Tests using the available information on rotation and the ratio of the electron and ion temperatures indicate neither of these variables in isolation can explain the variation in normalized confinement observed. Trends in the normalized confinement with the two dimensionless parameters that vary most from present-day experiments to ITER, gyroradius and collision frequency, are significant. Regression analysis on the multi-tokamak database has been performed, but it appears that the database is not conditioned sufficiently well to yield a new scaling for this type of plasma. Coordinated experiments on size scaling using the dimensionless parameter scaling approach find a weaker scaling with normalized gyroradius than the standard H-mode scaling. Preliminary studies on scaling with collision frequency show a favourable scaling stronger than the standard H-mode scaling. Coordinated modelling activity has resulted in successful benchmarking of modelling codes in the ITER regime. Validation of transport models using these codes on present-day experiments is in progress, but no single model has been shown to capture the variations seen in the experiments. However, projection to ITER using these models is in general agreement with the favourable projections found with the empirical scalings.

Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Politzer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V. V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.; the ITPA Integrated Operation Scenario Topical Group Members; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; EFDA Contributors, JET; the JT-60U Team

2014-01-01

236

Intellimotion Vol. 17 no. 1 2012 Integrated Construction Zone Traffic Management, Low-Cost Vehicle Detection and Communication Systems for Urban Intersections, Freeways, and Parking Lots, Extracting More Information from the Existing Freeway Traffic Monit  

E-print Network

Intellimotion Vol. 17 no. 1 2012 Integrated Construction Zone Traffic Management, Low-Cost Vehicle Detection and Communication Systems for Urban Intersections, Freeways, and Parking Lots, Extracting More of Changes in Graduated Licensing Laws in California, Smart Parking Management Pilot Project: A Bay Area

237

A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands.  

PubMed

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

Haasnoot, M; Middelkoop, H

2012-05-01

238

A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands  

PubMed Central

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the RhineMeuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, Decision robustness and Learning success, we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

2012-01-01

239

Dissecting and Testing Collective and Topological Scenarios for the Quantum Critical Point  

Microsoft Academic Search

In a number of strongly-interacting Fermi systems, the existence of a quantum critical point (QCP) is signaled by a divergent density of states and effective mass at zero temperature. Competing scenarios and corresponding mechanisms for the QCP are contrasted and analyzed. The conventional scenario invokes critical fluctuations of a collective mode in the close vicinity of a second-order phase transition

J. W. Clark; V. A. Khodel; M. V. Zverev

2010-01-01

240

The Forcing Agents Underlying Climate Change An Alternative Scenario for Climate Change in the 21st  

E-print Network

The Forcing Agents Underlying Climate Change An Alternative Scenario for Climate Change in the 21st for the forcing agents that underlie climate change. These are climate forcings that exist today, compared climate projection is the "business-as-usual" scenario. It leads to dramatic climate change later

241

Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary This paper lays the foundation for the use of scenario modelling as a tool for inte- grated water resource management in the Okavango River basin. The Pitman hydrological model is used to assess the impact of various development and climate change scenarios on downstream river flow. The simulated impact on modelled river discharge of increased water use for domestic

Lotta Andersson; Julie Wilk; Martin C. Todd; Denis A. Hughes; Anton Earle; Dominic Kniveton; Russel Layberry; Hubert H. G. Savenije

2006-01-01

242

Education the way ahead? An evaluation of a pilot course on scenario writing  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario writing is a method to promote creative thinking and a proactive approach to dealing with the future. ATEE's Research and Development Centre Curricula in Teacher Education has adapted this method for use in teacher education. A Comenius funded course on Scenario writing was run over five days with teachers, teachereducators, and persons in training management from several European countries.

Peter Viebahn; Gillian Hilton

2006-01-01

243

SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2  

E-print Network

SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2 , François Huguet1 , Cédric Mivielle1 Systems, Micro Smart Grids. Abstract: Autonomic computing is a bio-inspired vision elaborated to manage presents a series of scenarios relative to micro smart grids ­ district-size "smart" electricity networks

Diaconescu, Ada

244

Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social ecological systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be

J. M. Vervoort; K. Kok; Lammeren van R. J. A; A. Veldkamp

2010-01-01

245

A Genetic Approach to Spanish Populations of the Threatened Austropotamobius italicus Located at Three Different Scenarios  

PubMed Central

Spanish freshwater ecosystems are suffering great modification and some macroinvertebrates like Austropotamobius italicus, the white-clawed crayfish, are threatened. This species was once widely distributed in Spain, but its populations have shown a very strong decline over the last thirty years, due to different factors. Three Spanish populations of this crayfishfrom different scenarioswere analysed with nuclear (microsatellites) and mitochondrial markers (COI and 16S?rDNA). Data analyses reveal the existence of four haplotypes at mitochondrial level and polymorphism for four microsatellite loci. Despite this genetic variability, bottlenecks were detected in the two natural Spanish populations tested. In addition, the distribution of the mitochondrial haplotypes and SSR alleles show a similar geographic pattern and the genetic differentiation between these samples is mainly due to genetic drift. Given the current risk status of the species across its range, this diversity offers some hope for the species from a management point of view. PMID:22645491

Matallanas, Beatriz; Callejas, Carmen; Ochando, M. Dolores

2012-01-01

246

Knowledge Based Crime Scenario Modelling Jeroen Keppens  

E-print Network

Knowledge Based Crime Scenario Modelling Jeroen Keppens Department of Computer Science University to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically

Keppens, Jeroen

247

Bringing Scenario Planning Home to KU  

E-print Network

Energized by the immersive learning process at the ARL scenario-planning workshop in March 2011, the University of Kansas (KU) Libraries decided to introduce scenario planning to library staff later that spring, to support ...

Church-Duran, Jennifer; Ludwig, Deborah

2012-03-01

248

Existence and non-existence of breather solutions in damped and driven nonlinear lattices  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We investigate the existence of spatially localised solutions, in the form of discrete breathers, in general damped and driven nonlinear lattice systems of coupled oscillators. Conditions for the exponential decay of the difference between the maximal and minimal amplitudes of the oscillators are provided which proves that initial non-uniform spatial patterns representing breathers attain exponentially fast a spatially uniform state preventing the formation and/or preservation of any breather solution at all. Strikingly our results are generic in the sense that they hold for arbitrary dimension of the system, any attractive interaction, coupling strength and on-site potential and general driving fields. Furthermore, our rigorous quantitative results establish conditions under which discrete breathers in general damped and driven nonlinear lattices can exist at all and open the way for further research on the emergent dynamical scenarios, in particular features of pattern formation, localisation and synchronisation, in coupled cell networks.

Hennig, D.

2013-10-01

249

Existence and non-existence of semi-discrete shocks  

E-print Network

transition between two states of different car densities. There is no smallness condition on the size of a distance cT. This means that if we have an air plane view of the traffic and the cars are assumedExistence and non-existence of semi-discrete shocks for a car-following model in traffic flow A

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

250

EXISTENCE AND NON-EXISTENCE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SHOCKS  

E-print Network

two states of different car densities. There is no smallness condition on the size of these shocks of a distance cT. This means that if we have an air plane view of the traffic and the cars are assumedEXISTENCE AND NON-EXISTENCE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SHOCKS FOR A CAR-FOLLOWING MODEL IN TRAFFIC FLOW A

Monneau, Régis

251

Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.

Dengler, L.

2006-12-01

252

Scenario Writing: A Vision of the Future.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The Scenario Writing component of the Future Problem Solving Program calls for students to write a short-short story exploring variables in the future. This article describes the scenario writing process, presents samples of award-winning scenarios, and offers tips for student-authors and for coaches. (JDD)

Shewach, Dawn L.

1991-01-01

253

Conservation of Combinatorial Structures in Evolution Scenarios  

E-print Network

and human X chromosomes. 1 Introduction The reconstruction of evolution scenarios based on genomeConservation of Combinatorial Structures in Evolution Scenarios Anne Bergeron, Cedric Chauve La in Evolution Scenarios S??everine B??erard 1 , Anne Bergeron 2 , and Cedric Chauve 2 1 LIRMM, Montpellier, France

Chauve, Cedric

254

Using normative scenarios in landscape ecology  

Microsoft Academic Search

The normative landscape scenario is one of many types of scenario methods that are used by landscape ecologists. We describe how normative landscape scenarios are different from other types and how these differences create special potential for engaging science to build landscape policy and for exploring scientific questions in realistic simulated landscapes. We describe criteria and a method for generating

Joan Iverson Nassauer; Robert C. Corry

2004-01-01

255

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS  

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

256

Building Scenarios from a Heterogeneous Alert Stream  

Microsoft Academic Search

We describe a realtime algorithm for combining the alerts produced by several heterogeneous intrusion detection sensors into sce- narios. Each scenario represents a sequence of actions performed by a single actor or organization. Our algorithm, which is probabilistic in na- ture, can determine the scenario membership of a new alert in time pro- portional to the number of candidate scenarios.

Oliver M. Dain; Robert K. Cunningham

2001-01-01

257

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

SciTech Connect

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2006-12-15

258

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governors Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Edited by Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

2013-01-01

259

Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

260

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs  

SciTech Connect

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-09-19

261

Industrial research for transmutation scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Jol; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

2011-04-01

262

Nonlocality in sequential correlation scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As first shown by Popescu (1995 Phys. Rev. Lett. 74 2619), some quantum states only reveal their nonlocality when subjected to a sequence of measurements while giving rise to local correlations in standard Bell tests. Motivated by this manifestation of hidden nonlocality we set out to develop a general framework for the study of nonlocality when sequences of measurements are performed. Similar to Gallego et al (2013 Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 070401) our approach is operational, i.e. the task is to identify the set of allowed operations in sequential correlation scenarios and define nonlocality as the resource that cannot be created by these operations. This leads to a characterization of sequential nonlocality that contains as particular cases standard nonlocality and hidden nonlocality.

Gallego, Rodrigo; Wrflinger, Lars Erik; Chaves, Rafael; Acn, Antonio; Navascus, Miguel

2014-03-01

263

Existence conditions for spinor solitons  

SciTech Connect

Conditions for the existence of localized stationary states of a general class of nonlinear Dirac equations are obtained. The nonlinearities considered are such that, in the field equation, they approach zero faster than the field itself.

Mathieu, P.; Morris, T.F.

1984-10-15

264

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.  

PubMed

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI and PLA, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID:24361447

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

265

Future waste treatment and energy systems--examples of joint scenarios.  

PubMed

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project. PMID:23932196

Mnster, M; Finnveden, G; Wenzel, H

2013-11-01

266

How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?  

E-print Network

Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...

He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2013-01-01

267

Existence theorems for trapped modes  

Microsoft Academic Search

A two-dimensional acoustic waveguide of infinite extent described by two parallel lines contains an obstruction of fairly general shape which is symmetric about the centreline of the waveguide. It is proved that there exists at least one mode of oscillation, antisymmetric about the centerline, that corresponds to a local oscillation at a particular frequency, in the absence of excitation, which

D. V. Evans; M. Levitin; D. Vassiliev

1994-01-01

268

Existence of fractional differential equations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Consider the fractional differential equation D?x=f(t,x), where ??(0,1) and f(t,x) is a given function. We obtained a sufficient condition for the existence for the solutions of this equation, improving previously known results.

Cheng Yu; Guozhu Gao

2005-01-01

269

World Music Does Not Exist  

Microsoft Academic Search

It takes an era of world culture for world music to exist despite my title as an idea in the mind of journalists, critics, and the buyers of records.It is real if only because it is talked about as though it were real.When so much of the world seems immediately accessible without our ever having to leave home, and our

Timothy Brennan

2001-01-01

270

WAP Enabling Existing HTML Applications  

Microsoft Academic Search

Already-existing HTML applications can be converted into WML (Wireless Markup Language) applications for use on WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) enabled devices, yet this process is not as simple as the alteration of the markup tags. This paper investigates the problems associated with the conversion process by examining the conversion of a functional information system that would be of benefit to

Marcin Metter; Robert M. Colomb

2000-01-01

271

Can Boltzmann Soliton Star Exist?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The fermion soliton stars suggested by Lee and Pang are extended to finite temperature. The degeneracy temperature TD above which the fermion soliton star will become a Boltzmann soliton star is given. We prove that the Boltzmann soliton star cannot exist, because it is unstable.

Su, Rukeng; Chen, Xuelei; Pan, Rongshi

1992-12-01

272

Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent.  

PubMed

The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

Nishant; Kumari, Renu

2014-07-01

273

Financial scenario generation for stochastic multi-stage decision processes as facility location problems  

Microsoft Academic Search

The quality of multi-stage stochastic optimization models as they appear in asset liability management, energy planning, transportation, supply chain management, and other applications depends heavily on the quality of the underlying scenario model, describing the uncertain processes influencing the profit\\/cost function, such as asset prices and liabilities, the energy demand process, demand for transportation, and the like. A common approach

Ronald Hochreiter; Georg Ch. Pflug

2007-01-01

274

Foot-and-mouth disease: A scenario of reoccurrence for Scotland's tourism industry  

Microsoft Academic Search

ABSTRACT KEYWORDS: foot-and-mouth disease, crisis management, tourism, scenario, planning, cognitive mapping This paper considers how a future outbreak of foot- and-mouth disease (FMD) would be treated and considers the potential reaction by government agencies with particular reference to communication and the management of crises within the tourism

Ian Yeoman; J. John Lennon

2005-01-01

275

The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach  

PubMed Central

We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

276

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

277

Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the

Osvaldo E. Sala; F. Stuart Chapin III; Juan J. Armesto; Eric Berlow; Janine Bloomfield; Rodolfo Dirzo; Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald; Laura F. Huenneke; Robert B. Jackson; David M. Lodge; Harold A. Mooney; N. LeRoy Poff; Martin T. Sykes; Brian H. Walker; Diana H. Wall

2000-01-01

278

Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems  

E-print Network

were the AFMEC scenarios created? 6 Visions of 2020 ­ summaries of four scenarios 8 Shocks is an important output of the Defra Horizon Scanning and Futures research programme. The programme was established for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) 'Horizon Scanning' programme. The Horizon Scanning programme

279

Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a  

E-print Network

DEMAND Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future #12;#12;TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES SERIES: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future Government or any agency thereof. #12;iv ABOUT THE TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES PROJECT This is one

280

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

281

UAS Reference Scenarios for MANET Development  

Microsoft Academic Search

After autonomous flight for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has been accomplished, research was stipulated to look into application related challenges in connection with Un- manned Aerial Systems (UAS). As one possible scenario, swarms of collaborating UAVs can be envisioned and allow for more complex missions and scenarios. One essential building block in simultaneously operating several UAVs is the UAS inter-

H. Claus Christmann; Eric N. Johnson

282

Scenario Authoring for Virtual Environments Michael Booth  

E-print Network

­ ulation technology. The IDS provides a safe, #12; Figure 1: The Iowa Driving Simulator virtual environmentScenario Authoring for Virtual Environments Michael Booth James Cremer Joseph Kearney Computer scenarios for virtual environments. This effort grew out of our work in two areas --- creating experiment

Cremer, James

283

Emission Scenario Document on Antifouling Products  

Microsoft Academic Search

This OECD Emission Scenario Document (ESD) describes emission scenarios for three parts of the life cycle for antifouling products used on ship and boat hulls: (1) application; (2) service life; and (3) removal. The primary aim of this ESD is for use in risk assessments in notification and authorisation procedures in regulatory frameworks used in OECD countries. The ESD is

2005-01-01

284

Fusing a Heterogeneous Alert Stream into Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

An algorithm for fusing the alerts produced by multiple heterogeneous intrusion detection systems is pre- sented. The algorithm runs in realtime, combining the alerts into scenarios; each is composed of a sequence of alerts produced by a single actor or organization. The software is capable of discovering scenarios even if stealthy attack methods, such as forged IP addresses or long

Oliver Dain; Robert K. Cunningham

2001-01-01

285

Social assessment of waste energy utilization scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) constructed four energy scenarios for the year 2005 and 2020 referring to the German State of Baden-Wrttemberg. All these scenarios are based on the promise of the German government to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions by 25% in the year 2005, and there is a commitment of a 45% reduction for the year

Ortwin Renn

2003-01-01

286

Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. In 1994, Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be

Barbara Harper; Anna Harding; Stuart Harris; Patricia Berger

2012-01-01

287

SCENARIO RECOGNITION IN MODERN BUILDING AUTOMATION  

Microsoft Academic Search

Modern building automation has to deal with very different types of demands, depending on the use of the building and therefore the persons acting within this building. To meet the demands of situation awareness in modern building automation, scenario recognition becomes more and more important to detect such demands and react to them. Two concepts of scenario recognition and their

R. Lang; D. Bruckner; G. Pratl; R. Velik; T. Deutsch

2009-01-01

288

Critical stress scenarios for a coastal aquifer in southeastern Italy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over the last years the sustainable management of coastal water resources has become strategic, especially in southern Salento Peninsula (Apulia), where mal-performing management strategies adopted, together with the vulnerability of the hydrogeological system, have given rise to the deterioration of groundwater quality due to saltwater intrusion. In the study area there is the presence of multilevel shallow aquifer and a deep aquifer that interact by means of faults. The geological system is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion so there is the need to adopt management strategies to avoid seawater intrusion phenomena. Nevertheless there is a lack of studies that analyze the methodology for the correct exploitation if the water resource in order to avoid further intrusion phenomena. This paper combines a density-driven, flow numerical model (Seawat v.4) with a fault conceptual and hydrologic model to simulate saltwater intrusion phenomenon in the deep as well as in the shallow aquifer of the Salento area. By means of the individuation of an indicator parameter of groundwater quality, it has been possible to simulate different scenarios of exploitation and therefore to define critical stress scenarios for both aquifers. The results show that the deep aquifer is more vulnerable than the shallow one, which means that in the former, in order not to reach conditions of contamination, a lower density of wells is necessary than in the latter. The reduction of well density coupled with the artificial recharge of freshwater into the aquifer may be proposed as a solution strategy to protect the aquifer. Therefore, future developments of the present study will be represented by the simulation of different scenarios of recharging to inhibit the saltwater intrusion front further inland. The proposed methodology and its future developments can represent an empirical tool to provide preliminary guidelines for long-term groundwater management in coastal aquifers.

Cherubini, C.; Pastore, N.

2011-05-01

289

Tank waste remediation system operational scenario  

SciTech Connect

The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

Johnson, M.E.

1995-05-01

290

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.  

PubMed

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. PMID:23708563

Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

2013-09-01

291

Open Learning Service Scenarios on GRIDs Open Learning Service Scenarios on GRIDs  

E-print Network

Open Learning Service Scenarios on GRIDs Open Learning Service Scenarios on GRIDs Stefano A. Cerri Learning GRID's services for very large numbers of potential users. Keywords: e-Learning, Grid, Social@lirmm.fr The position paper focuses on the concepts of Service Elicitation and Evaluation/Exploitation Scenarios (SEES

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

292

The EXIST Mission Concept Study  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in scanning mode, interrupted for several orbits per day by GRB follow-ups, followed by a combined pointing-scanning mission phase for optical/IR spectroscopy and redshifts for the large AGN sample found in the survey as well as GRBs and LSST transients. A Team of university, NASA, and industry investigators will conduct the study to determine the full sensitivity and capabilities of this new configuration for EXIST. It will build on the extensive studies of the prior design for the mission and the HET and will incorporate the optical/IR telescope (hereafter IRT) now fully developed by our ITT partner for the NextView Commercial Remote Sensing mission (early 2008 launch) with a focal plane to be developed at GSFC based in part on JWST/NIRSPEC designs. No new technology is needed for either the IRT or HET instruments. The study will pay close attention to full mission cost and present a design for the Decadal Survey Workshop to ensure this even more capable EXIST mission is once again part of the next Decadal Survey.

Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

2008-01-01

293

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

294

Integrated modelling of ITER reference scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The ITER Scenario Modelling Working Group (ISM WG) is organized within the European Task Force on Integrated Tokamak Modelling (ITM-TF). The main responsibility of the WG is to advance a pan-European approach to integrated predictive modelling of ITER plasmas with the emphasis on urgent issues, identified during the ITER Design Review. Three major topics are discussed, which are considered as urgent and where the WG has the best possible expertize. These are modelling of current profile control, modelling of density control and impurity control in ITER (the last two topics involve modelling of both core and SOL plasma). Different methods of heating and current drive are tested as controllers for the current profile tailoring during the current ramp-up in ITER. These include Ohmic, NBI, ECRH and LHCD methods. Simulation results elucidate the available operational margins and rank different methods according to their ability to meet different requirements. A range of 'ITER-relevant' plasmas from existing tokamaks were modelled. Simulations confirmed that the theory-based transport model, GLF23, reproduces the density profile reasonably well and can be used to assess ITER profiles with both pellet injection and gas puffing. In addition, simulations of the SOL plasma were launched using both H-mode and L-mode models for perpendicular transport within the edge barrier and in the SOL. Finally, an integrated approach was also used for the predictive modelling of impurity accumulation in ITER. This includes helium ash, extrinsic impurities (such as argon) and impurities coming from the wall (including tungsten). The relative importance of anomalous and neo-classical pinch contributions towards impurity penetration through the edge transport barrier and further accumulation in the core was assessed.

Parail, V.; Belo, P.; Boerner, P.; Bonnin, X.; Corrigan, G.; Coster, D.; Ferreira, J.; Foster, A.; Garzotti, L.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Houlberg, W.; Imbeaux, F.; Johner, J.; Kochl, F.; Kotov, V.; Lauro-Taroni, L.; Litaudon, X.; Lonnroth, J.; Pereverzev, G.; Peysson, Y.; Saibene, G.; Sartori, R.; Schneider, M.; Sips, G.; Strand, P.; Tardini, G.; Valovic, M.; Wiesen, S.; Wischmeier, M.; Zagorski, R.; JET EFDA contributors; EU ITM Task Force

2009-07-01

295

Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

An integrated forecastdecision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecastmanagement schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios. The inflow forecasting options include operational forecasts, historical analog ensemble forecasts, hydrologic ensemble forecasts, GCM-conditioned

H. Yao; A Georgakakos

2001-01-01

296

Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2013-12-01

297

Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970-2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export.

Seitzinger, S. P.; Mayorga, E.; Bouwman, A. F.; Kroeze, C.; Beusen, A. H. W.; Billen, G.; van Drecht, G.; Dumont, E.; Fekete, B. M.; Garnier, J.; Harrison, J. A.

2010-12-01

298

Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

2004-01-01

299

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study  

PubMed Central

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

300

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis of flood risks in aging-dam management in China: a framework and case study.  

PubMed

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-05-01

301

The problem of what exists  

E-print Network

Popular multiverse models such as the one based on the string theory landscape require an underlying set of unexplained laws containing many specific features and highly restrictive prerequisites. I explore the consequences of relaxing some of these prerequisites with a view to discovering whether any of them might be justified anthropically. Examples considered include integer space dimensionality, the immutable, Platonic nature of the laws of physics and the no-go theorem for strong emergence. The problem of why some physical laws exist, but others which are seemingly possible do not, takes on a new complexion following this analysis, although it remains an unsolved problem in the absence of an additional criterion.

P. C. W. Davies

2006-02-20

302

Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be

Joost M. Vervoort; Kasper Kok; Ron van Lammeren; Tom Veldkamp

2010-01-01

303

LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement.  

PubMed

When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues. PMID:22516101

Slagstad, Helene; Bratteb, Helge

2012-07-01

304

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, Joo Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, Antnio; Joo Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

305

Ignorable Information in Multi-Agent Scenarios  

E-print Network

In some multi-agent scenarios, identifying observations that an agent can safely ignore reduces exponentially the size of the agent's strategy space and hence the time required to find a Nash equilibrium. We consider games ...

Milch, Brian

2008-05-12

306

IPCC Scenarios for the Year 2100  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The figure summarizes some of the key variations amongst the six illustrative scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in considering possible future emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century.

Rhode, Robert A.; Art, Globalwarming

307

SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY  

E-print Network

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director CHAPTER 2: Retirement and Replacement of Aging Power Plants in California

308

Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin  

E-print Network

Examines the literature and available data on hydroclimatic variability and change on the Indus Basin plains, comparing historical fluctuations in climatic and hydrologic variables and reviewing scenarios of climate change ...

Yu, Winston

309

TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS  

EPA Science Inventory

A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

310

Hollow current profile scenarios for advanced tokamak reactor operations  

SciTech Connect

Advanced tokamak scenarios are a possible approach to boosting reactor performances. Such schemes usually trigger current holes, a particular magnetohydrodynamics equilibrium where no current or pressure gradients exist in the core of the plasma. While such equilibria have large bootstrap fractions, flat pressure profiles in the plasma core may not be optimal for a reactor. However, moderate modifications of the equilibrium current profile can lead to diamagnetism where most of the pressure gradient is now balanced by poloidal currents and the toroidal magnetic field. In this paper, we consider the properties of diamagnetic current holes, also called ''dual equilibria,'' and demonstrate that fusion throughput can be significantly increased in such scenarios. Their stability is investigated using the DCON code. Plasmas with a beta peak of 30% and an average beta of 6% are found stable to both fixed and free-boundary modes with toroidal mode numbers n=1-4, as well as Mercier and high-n ballooning modes. This is not surprising as these scenarios have a normal beta close to 3.

Gourdain, P.-A. [Laboratory of Plasma Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 (United States) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1547 (United States); Leboeuf, J.-N. [JNL Scientific, Casa Grande, Arizona 85222 (United States)

2009-11-15

311

A proposal for a scenario classification framework  

Microsoft Academic Search

The requirements engineering, information systems and software engineering communities recently advocated scenario-based approaches\\u000a which emphasise the user\\/system interaction perspective in developing computer systems. Use of examples, scenes, narrative\\u000a descriptions of contexts, mock-ups and prototypes-all these ideas can be called scenario-based approaches, although exact\\u000a definitions are not easy beyond stating that these approaches emphasise some description of the real world. Experience

C. Rolland; C. Ben Achour; C. Cauvet; J. Ralyt; A. Sutcliffe; N. Maiden; M. Jarke; P. Haumer; K. Pohl; E. Dubois; P. Heymans

1998-01-01

312

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Nicholls, R. J.; Wong, P. P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C. D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

313

Scenario of solid waste management in present Indian context  

Microsoft Academic Search

A trend of significant increase in municipal solid waste generation has been recorded worldwide. This has been found due to over population growth rate, industrialization, urbanization and economic growth. Consumerism speed has been found very high covering around more then 50% of total population since last decade due to higher economic growth, which has ultimately resulted in increased solid waste

R. Rajput; G. Prasad; A. K. Chopra

314

Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots  

E-print Network

that responded to the World Trade Center disaster in September 2001. However, rescue robots have still not been widely accepted by human rescuers. Fig. 1. Robots deployed to the World Trade Center disaster site had some limited use in disaster response, most notably the responses led by the Center for Robot

Allan, Vicki H.

315

MODELLING AND SIMULATING PROCESS-ORIENTED KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT  

E-print Network

MODELLING AND SIMULATING PROCESS-ORIENTED KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT Irina Shostak¹, Anjo Anjewierden. Simulating those models becomes very valuable when one wants to investigate different knowledge management scenarios. Key words: process-oriented knowledge management, knowledge management business model

Anjewierden, Anjo

316

On the existence of stable seasonally varying Arctic sea ice  

E-print Network

Within the framework lower order thermodynamic theories for the climatic evolution of Arctic sea ice we isolate the conditions required for the existence of stable seasonally-varying ice states. This is done by constructing a two-season model from the continuously evolving theory of Eisenman and Wettlaufer (2009) and showing that the necessary and sufficient condition for stable seasonally-varying states resides in the relaxation of the constant annual average short-wave radiative forcing. This forcing is examined within the scenario of greenhouse gas warming, as a function of which stability conditions are discerned.

Moon, W

2012-01-01

317

Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

1997-01-01

318

[Dutch government invests in existing biobanks].  

PubMed

Modern research, aimed at discovering factors that influence health and disease, requires large collections of data and samples. Collaboration between biobanks is therefore essential. The Dutch hub in the network of biobanks, the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), is one of the major Dutch biobanking initiatives. It is sponsored by the Dutch government through the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). BBMRI-NL sets up collaboration between approximately 150 existing clinical and population biobanks in the Netherlands, and forms the link with the European BBMRI initiative. BBMRI-NL aims at enrichment and harmonization of existing Dutch biobanks, at data management and analysis, and at laying the legal, social and ethical foundations, in order to improve access and inter-operability, and to render the information and organization up to date. Other major Dutch initiatives are String of Pearls and LifeLines. Together these will create the conditions needed for Dutch researchers to further develop their strong position in the international biobanking field. PMID:21029488

Brandsma, Margreet; van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; Wijmenga, Cisca; Kiemeney, Lambertus A

2010-01-01

319

Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.

Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

2001-12-01

320

Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.

Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

2012-12-01

321

[Silent salpingitis. Does it exist?].  

PubMed

The diagnosis of salpingitis based solely on clinical criteria is inaccurate, with both low specificity and sensitivity. Laparoscopy has therefore become a valuable diagnostic tool in clinical practice and essential in clinical research on salpingitis. Different types of evidence indicate that atypical salpingitis without abdominal pain and discrete or absent symptoms is a common etiology of tubal factor infertility. A low threshold for suspecting salpingitis has been recommended to augment the sensitivity of clinical diagnosis. This leads to lower specificity and thereby a greater number of false positive diagnoses and unnecessary antibiotic treatment. Outpatient biopsy from the endometrium for histopathology and chlamydia testing might augment the specificity in cases with discrete symptoms, and should be investigated further. The sensitivity of laparoscopy is low for endosalpingitis without affection of the serosa, and might be augmented by using minibiopsies and chlamydia PCR from the tubal mucosa. The most significant measure toward reducing the sequelae of salpingitis is the combatting of chlamydia infection through screening programs and qualified partner management. PMID:11402600

Thejls, H

2001-05-01

322

Multiverse Scenarios in Cosmology: Classification, Cause, Challenge, Controversy, and Criticism  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multiverse scenarios in cosmology assume that other universes exist "beyond" our own universe. They are an exciting challenge both for empirical and theoretical research as well as for philosophy of science. They could be necessary to understand why the big bang occurred, why (some of) the laws of nature and the values of certain physical constants are the way they are, and why there is an arrow of time. This essay clarifies competing notions of "universe" and "multiverse"; it proposes a classification of different multiverse types according to various aspects how the universes are or are not separated from each other; it reviews the main reasons for assuming the existence of other universes: empirical evidence, theoretical explanation, and philosophical arguments; and, finally, it argues that some attempts to criticize multiverse scenarios as "unscientific", insisting on a narrow understanding of falsification, is neither appropriate nor convincing from a philosophy of science point of view. -- Keywords: big bang, universe, multiverse, cosmic inflation, time, quantum gravity, string theory, laws of nature, physical constants, fine-tuning, anthropic principle, philosophy of science, metaphysics, falsificationism

Vaas, Rdiger

2010-01-01

323

Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or ecosystem services to peopleincluding wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem serviceswildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

2014-01-01

324

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdictions workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

325

The real world and lunar base activation scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

Schmitt, Harrison H.

1992-01-01

326

Scenario development in China's electricity sector  

SciTech Connect

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W. [Carleton University, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography & Environmental Studies

2007-07-15

327

Exposure Scenarios and Guidance Values for Urban Soil Pollutants  

Microsoft Academic Search

In general, risk assessments of urban soil pollution are prepared by comparing the levels of pollutants with soil quality criteria. However, large urban areas are contaminated with concentrations of pollutants far exceeding the existing soil quality criteria and would consequently be considered to be of potential risk to humans. This is, however, a rather rigid approach, and for risk management

Helle Buchardt Boyd; Finn Pedersen; Karl-Heinz Cohr; Axel Damborg; Bodil M. Jakobsen; Preben Kristensen; Lise Samse-Petersen

1999-01-01

328

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

329

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (C) and by 2C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9 and 1.1C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5C and 0.2C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

330

Fast wave current drive scenarios for DEMO  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenarios for non-inductive current drive using the fast magnetosonic wave in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies in DEMO have been studied. The strong ion cyclotron damping and large Doppler broadening of the ? particles are shown to limit the possible current drive scenarios to four frequency bands. However, these scenarios may be compromised in the presence of impurities with unfavourable charge to mass ratio. For each frequency the current drive efficiency is optimized with respect to the parallel wave number. The optimized current drive efficiencies are comparable to that from neutral beam injection and electron cyclotron heating, and thus the ion cyclotron range of frequencies should remain a candidate for driving the non-inductive current in DEMO.

Hannan, A.; Hellsten, T.; Johnson, T.

2013-04-01

331

China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)  

SciTech Connect

China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domesti

Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

2004-03-10

332

Discussion Of Scenario ResultsDiscussion Of Scenario Results Michael Schilmoeller  

E-print Network

At 84% capacity factor, the Council's Carbon Footprint Paper estimates regional coal plant carbon (Btu/kWh) tons CO2/MWh RPM & Genesys (%) Council's Carbon Footprint paper Boardman 601.0 84% 504 Committee Web Conference Thursday, May 28, 2009 #12;2 ScenariosScenarios Base case Suspend Carbon Policy

333

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

334

Microlevel planning. Part 1: Forecasting future scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The article presents a technique for forecasting future scenarios. The forecast is based on a set of projected inputs for the target year along with a projected set of technical coefficients. The projected inputs and the technical coefficients are arrived at either through a regression of historical data or on the basis of socioeconomic conditions of the study area as brought out by state- or district-level statistical data or through a survey conducted by the author. For some variables the best farm method was also employed for projections. The application of the method is illustrated by projecting a plausible scenario for the rural segment of Kanyakumari District for the year 1995.

Devadas, V. [Indian Inst. of Tech., Kharagpur (India)

1997-07-01

335

Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview  

USGS Publications Warehouse

On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

Kilpatrick, F.A.

1977-01-01

336

Dynamic Spectrum Management for Upstream Mixtures of Vectored & Non-Vectored DSL  

Microsoft Academic Search

As field trials and initial deployments of Vectored DSL systems materialize in the next few years, Vectored DSL systems will often co-exist with non-vectored DSL systems sharing the same cable. For such mixed-binder scenarios with vectored and non-vectored lines, this paper presents an optimal Dynamic Spectrum Management (DSM) technique referred to as Mixed-binder Optimum Spectrum Balancing (MixOSB) to find the

Aakanksha Chowdhery; John M. Cioffi

2010-01-01

337

Breaking new ground: challenging existing asthma guidelines  

PubMed Central

Background While we have international guidelines and various national guidelines for asthma diagnosis and management, asthma remains poorly controlled in many children and adults. In this paper we review the limitations of current asthma guidelines and describe important issues and remaining questions regarding asthma guidelines for use, particularly in primary care. Discussion Clinical practice guidelines based on evidence from randomized controlled trials are considered the most rigorous and accurate. Current evidence-based guidelines are written predominantly from the perspective of the patient with a clear-cut asthma diagnosis, however, and tend not to consider the heterogeneity of asthma or to accommodate individual patient variations in response to treatment or their needs, differences in practice settings, or local differences in availability and cost of therapies. The results of randomized controlled trials, which are designed to establish efficacy of treatment under ideal conditions, may not apply to 'real-world' clinical practice, where patients are unselected, monitoring is less frequent, and effectiveness the benefit of treatment in routine clinical practice is the most relevant outcome. Moreover, most guidelines see asthma in isolation rather than considering other factors that may impact on asthma and response to asthma therapy, particularly age, allergic rhinitis, cigarette smoking, adherence, and genetic factors. When these links are recognized, guidelines rarely provide practical recommendations for treatment in these scenarios. Finally, there is some evidence that general practitioners are not convinced of the applicability of asthma guidelines to their practice settings, especially when those writing the guidelines principally work in specialist practice. Conclusion Developing country-specific guidelines or, ideally, local guidelines could provide more practical solutions for asthma care and could account for regional factors that influence patient choice and adherence to therapy. Pragmatic clinical trials and well-designed observational trials are needed in addition to randomized controlled trials to assess real-world effectiveness of therapies, and such evidence needs also to be considered by guideline writers. Finally, practical tools to facilitate the diagnosis and assessment of asthma and factors responsible for poor control, such as associated allergic rhinitis, limited adherence, and smoking behavior, are needed to supplement treatment information provided in clinical practice guidelines for asthma. PMID:17140424

2006-01-01

338

Mining API Patterns as Partial Orders from Source Code: From Usage Scenarios to Specifications  

E-print Network

Mining API Patterns as Partial Orders from Source Code: From Usage Scenarios to Specifications with third-party libraries through var- ious APIs. Using these library APIs often needs to follow certain usage patterns. Furthermore, ordering rules (specifications) exist between APIs, and these rules govern

Pei, Jian

339

HIGH-LEVEL SCENARIO EDITING FOR SERIOUS GAMES Casper van Est, Ronald Poelman, Rafael Bidarra  

E-print Network

video games originally came into existence, their purpose was solely to entertain. Nowadays, with video in this area, a subset of video games called serious games is being used for business and educational purposesHIGH-LEVEL SCENARIO EDITING FOR SERIOUS GAMES Casper van Est, Ronald Poelman, Rafael Bidarra

Bidarra, Rafael

340

Information Tuning with KARAT: Capitalizing on Existing Documents  

Microsoft Academic Search

Organizations store their information in electronic or paper documents. This information is severely underutilized in the daily work of most organizations. Because there are no effective means to access the documents, employees do not find relevant information, or are not even aware of its existence. We describe Information Tuning - a first step towards knowledge management in enterprises. Information Tuning

Bidjan Tschaitschian; Andreas Abecker; Franz Schmalhofer

1997-01-01

341

How to inject consumerism into your existing health plans.  

PubMed

Consumerism seeks to create a behavior change on the part of consumers so that they become accountable, knowledgeable and actively engaged in managing their health. It can be used in any existing health plan through targeted plan design changes and consumer education efforts. Employers have many options in addition to consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs). PMID:12964528

Havlin, Linda J; McAllister, Michael F; Slavney, David H

2003-09-01

342

Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and

Anderson, Jane; And Others

343

Impurity injection scenario in the burning plasma  

E-print Network

) ­ stronger in RS than in high p H. #12;Impurity injection scenario Flat density profile ( dependence of required confinement and edge density on the impurity accumulation level and density profile 6 7 Impurity transport : IMPACT Fusion output : TOPICS #12;Case with nAr profile more peaked

344

U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the

Vanderslice

1979-01-01

345

A Scenario for the Future of Museums  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future

Cunningham, Mary Kay

2009-01-01

346

Directable Behavior Models for Virtual Driving Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we present a model for autonomous driving behavior useful for creating ambient trafficas well as experiment specific scenarios for driving simulation. This model follows roadways, obeyingthe rules of the road. It reacts to nearby vehicles and traffic control devices. The model supports arange of behaviors including passing, lane changes, and safe navigation through intersections. Themodel is parametrized

James Cremer; Joseph Kearney; Peter Willemsen

1997-01-01

347

Product Associated Displays in a Shopping Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, we introduce the concept ofProduct As- sociated Displays - PADs - as a way of providing visual feedback to users interacting with physical objects in an instrumented environment. PADs are projected public dis- plays created at locations that can be intuitively associated with the objects they show information about. The concept is illustrated in a shopping scenario.

Antonio Kr

348

Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants

Wright, Doris J.

349

Developing scenarios for robot assisted play  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes the user-centred development of play scenarios for robot assisted play, as part of the IROMEC project that develops a novel robotic toy for children with special needs. The project investigates how robotic toys can become social mediators, encouraging children with special needs to discover a range of play styles, from solitary to collaborative play (with peers, carers\\/teachers,

Ben Robins; Ester Ferrari; Kerstin Dautenhahn

2008-01-01

350

Competency-Based Teacher Education: A Scenario.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This fictitious scenario embodies all the characteristics and dimensions for a fully developed competency-based teacher education program envisioned by the authors. A single program and its implications for students, faculty, and the institution are presented. Specific areas of the program covered 1) a fundamental description of the competency

Weber, Wilford A.; Cooper, James M.

351

Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was

Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

2014-01-01

352

Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by

G. Zuccaro; F. Cacace; R. J. S. Spence; P. J. Baxter

2008-01-01

353

Development of Benign Elm Scenarios at JET  

Microsoft Academic Search

The development of a Q=10 baseline regime with tolerable ELMs remains a challenging issue for ITER. To address this, the JET programme has focused on the exploration of intrinsically benign ELM plasma scenarios. At high shape and fuelling type I ELM frequencies are strongly reduced by inter-ELM turbulence. Similar turbulence can lead to a fully stationary pedestal at high collisionality

Thierry Loarer; R. J. Buttery; P. J. Lomas; I. Nunes; G. Saibene

2006-01-01

354

Neurotoxic chemical exposure scenarios and suggested solutions  

Microsoft Academic Search

This manuscript reports the results of a problem-solving exercise presented to participants at a Workshop on Neurotoxicology Testing in Human Populations held in Rougemont, North Carolina in October, 1983. Response recommendations are the consensus of workshop participants. These are not comprehensive or definitive solutions and should be interpreted with caution. Each exposure scenario represents a real world situation previously encountered

H. H. Schaumberg; J. Arezzo; D. A. Otto; D. A. Eckerman

1985-01-01

355

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

356

GLOWA-Danube: Integrative Global Change Scenario Simulations for the Upper Danube Catchment First Results  

E-print Network

GLOWA-Danube: Integrative Global Change Scenario Simulations for the Upper Danube Catchment ­ First of GLOWA-Danube is to investigate and explore new integrative techniques and methods, leading to a decision support system for water resource management in the Upper Danube catchment area. The project partners from

Cirpka, Olaf Arie

357

Colloques Nouvelles approches en risques ctiers COASTAL RISKS IN SRI LANKA GIS, SCENARIO AND MODELLING APPROACHES  

E-print Network

waves and tsunami propagation and inundation from regional to local scale - risk scenarios simulations will supplement the international tsunami alert system in the Indian Ocean and is fully consistent with natural risk management policies. The results obtained form a basis for anticipating coastal risks as part

Boyer, Edmond

358

Design and scenario assessment for collaborative logistics and freight transport systems  

E-print Network

1 Design and scenario assessment for collaborative logistics and freight transport systems Jesus in collaborative reasoning. This paper proposes a framework to assess collaborative solutions in the context transport and supply chain management. Then, the method to assess collaborative logistics and freight

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

359

RSS and Vodcasting for Undergraduate Design and Technology Stude nts: Mobile Learning Scenarios, Issues and Challenges  

Microsoft Academic Search

Th is paper describes a study of mobile learning for undergraduate design and technology education. The methodology is action research, to assess student\\/ lecturer competencies with mobile learning on two modules. It was found that RSS and Vodcasting learning scenarios require a fundamental shift in stakeholders' management of internet- based educational information for design and technology education. Collecting data on

M. R. Hepburn; A. R. Hodgson

360

An IP-based QoS architecture for 4G operator scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article describes a global QoS architecture for multimedia traffic in mobile heterogeneous environments. This architecture supports both multiple access networks and multiple service provider scenarios. The architecture is able to provide QoS per user and per service, implementing the notion of a user profile associated network management in the case of heterogeneous and mobile network access is presented based

V. Marques; R. L. Aguiar; C. Garcia; J. I. Moreno; C. Beaujean; E. Melin; M. Liebsch

2003-01-01

361

Failure Scenario as a Service (FSaaS) for Hadoop Clusters Faraz Faghri  

E-print Network

Descriptors C.4 [Computer Systems Organization]: Performance of Systems--Fault tolerance; D.4.3 [File Systems Manage- ment]: Distributed File Systems General Terms Design, Performance, Reliability Keywords CloudFailure Scenario as a Service (FSaaS) for Hadoop Clusters Faraz Faghri University of Illinois

Sanders, William H.

362

Data envelopment scenario analysis for setting targets to electricity generating plants  

Microsoft Academic Search

The development of viable and challenging performance measurement systems in multi-unit organisations receives increased attention in recent years. Performance is no longer viewed as a static phenomenon that reflects the past history of operating systems. There is increasing appreciation for the value of performance scenarios which can be used to guide management for the expected performance consequences of alternative policies.

Antreas D. Athanassopoulos; Nikos Lambroukos; Lawrence M. Seiford

1999-01-01

363

Detecting implied scenarios in message sequence chart specifications  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario-based specifications such as Message Sequence Charts (MSCs) are becoming increasingly popular as part of a requirements specification. Scenario describe how system components, the environment and users work concurrently and interact in order to provide system level functionality. Each scenario is a partial story which, when combined with other scenarios, should conform to provide a complete system description. However, although

Sebastin Uchitel; Jeff Kramer; Jeff Magee

2001-01-01

364

Scenarios as Seen from a Human and Social Perspective  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article examines how scenarios can be more than a futures studies tool, and looks at the necessary epistemological, methodological, and ethical criteria for such scenarios. The aims that guide scenarios and, hence, those that can spring from a human and social perspective are considered. In the authors' view, scenarios tend to broaden mental frontiers because they are multidisciplinary, multidimensional,

Eleonora Barbieri Masini; Javier Medina Vasquez

2000-01-01

365

Using 'endowed props' in scenario-based design  

Microsoft Academic Search

We have developed a form of scenario-based design that aims to increase stakeholders' sense of 'immersion' in the happenings and situations depicted in the scenarios. In our approach, scenarios are 'acted out' by actors and\\/or candidate users during participatory design sessions, rather than being 'walked through' by designers and users. In form, our scenarios are bare and malleable and load

Steve Howard; Jennie Carroll; John Murphy; Jane Peck

2002-01-01

366

Safety Sufficiency for NextGen: Assessment of Selected Existing Safety Methods, Tools, Processes, and Regulations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

NextGen is a complex socio-technical system and, in many ways, it is expected to be more complex than the current system. It is vital to assess the safety impact of the NextGen elements (technologies, systems, and procedures) in a rigorous and systematic way and to ensure that they do not compromise safety. In this study, the NextGen elements in the form of Operational Improvements (OIs), Enablers, Research Activities, Development Activities, and Policy Issues were identified. The overall hazard situation in NextGen was outlined; a high-level hazard analysis was conducted with respect to multiple elements in a representative NextGen OI known as OI-0349 (Automation Support for Separation Management); and the hazards resulting from the highly dynamic complexity involved in an OI-0349 scenario were illustrated. A selected but representative set of the existing safety methods, tools, processes, and regulations was then reviewed and analyzed regarding whether they are sufficient to assess safety in the elements of that OI and ensure that safety will not be compromised and whether they might incur intolerably high costs.

Xu, Xidong; Ulrey, Mike L.; Brown, John A.; Mast, James; Lapis, Mary B.

2013-01-01

367

High resolution scenarios of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We describe a series of high resolution maps of past and projected changes in land use and land cover (LULC) for the conterminous United States for the period 1992 to 2100. Four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to create annual maps showing spatially explicit change in 15 LULC classes at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. A modular land-use modeling approach was utilized with distinct demand and spatial allocation components. To quantify demand for future LULC change (i.e. the quantity of changes in land use and land cover classes), a scenario downscaling model was developed to extend global scenarios from the IPCC to hierarchically nested ecoregions of the U.S. The Forecasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) land use model was then employed to allocate scenario demand on the landscape. Both models were parameterized at the ecoregion scale and relied extensively on land use histories and expert knowledge. Results reveal large differences across IPCC-SRES scenarios. Scenarios prioritizing economic development over environmental protection result in the highest rates of LULC change, particularly in regions with extensive forest management, large urban areas, and/or large investments in agricultural land. Scenarios where environmental protection is emphasized result in slower rates of change and less intensity in regional land use patterns.

Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R. R.; Sayler, K.; Sleeter, R.; Soulard, C. E.; Wilson, T. S.

2012-12-01

368

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

369

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governors Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

370

Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

Pai?ko, Robert; Stani?, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

2010-05-01

371

Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan  

SciTech Connect

Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

372

Responding to Home Maintenance Challenge Scenarios: The Role of Selection, Optimization, and Compensation in Aging-in-Place.  

PubMed

This study examined potential issues faced by older adults in managing their homes and their proposed solutions for overcoming hypothetical difficulties. Forty-four diverse, independently living older adults (66-85) participated in structured group interviews in which they discussed potential solutions to manage difficulties presented in four scenarios: perceptual, mobility, physical, and cognitive difficulties. The proposed solutions were classified using the Selection, Optimization, and Compensation (SOC) model. Participants indicated they would continue performing most tasks and reported a range of strategies to manage home maintenance challenges. Most participants reported that they would manage home maintenance challenges using compensation; the most frequently mentioned compensation strategy was using tools and technologies. There were also differences across the scenarios: Optimization was discussed most frequently with perceptual and cognitive difficulty scenarios. These results provide insights into supporting older adults' potential needs for aging-in-place and provide evidence of the value of the SOC model in applied research. PMID:25332307

Kelly, Andrew John; Fausset, Cara Bailey; Rogers, Wendy; Fisk, Arthur D

2014-12-01

373

Flood hazard maps in Matucana village under climate change scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Possible effects of climate change on floods magnitude and effects are discussed in this document based on existing data and projected changes in precipitation until 2099. This methodology is applied to Matucana Village, which suffers the effects of floods and debris flows. First, historical peak precipitation, fitted to Gumbel distribution, was used, After that, percentage projected changes of precipitation were used to obtain the new mean precipitation to each period 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099; these mean precipitations define a new Gumbel distribution for every time period. Then, projected maximal precipitations to 100 years of return period are estimated and the corresponding peak flow hydrographs were built. Finally, hazard maps are plotted. This application is possible because Matucana is located in a climatologically homogeneous basin. The final results suggest an important increase in magnitude and affected area by floods in the next 90 years under the A1FI emission scenario.

Cabrera Cabrera, J. W.; Castillo Navarro, L. F.

2014-09-01

374

General solution for the warp function in the RS scenario  

E-print Network

The five-dimensional space-time, with non-factorizable geometry and fifth dimension y being an orbifold S^1/Z_2, is studied. In such a scenario, originally suggested by Randall and Sundrum, there exist two branes at fixed points of the orbifold, and the four-dimensional metric is multiplied by a warp factor exp[sigma(y)]. In the present paper, the new aesthetic solution sigma(y) of the Einstein-Hilbert equations is presented which has the orbifold symmetry y -> - y and reproduces jumps of its derivative on both branes. It is also symmetric with respect to an interchange of two branes. The function sigma(y) is determined by the Einstein-Hilbert equations up to a constant, that results in physically diverse schemes.

Kisselev, A V

2014-01-01

375

General solution for the warp function in the RS scenario  

E-print Network

The five-dimensional space-time, with non-factorizable geometry and fifth dimension y being an orbifold S^1/Z_2, is studied. In such a scenario, originally suggested by Randall and Sundrum, there exist two branes at fixed points of the orbifold, and the four-dimensional metric is multiplied by a warp factor exp[sigma(y)]. In the present paper, the general solution sigma(y) of the Einstein-Hilbert's equations is presented which is symmetric with respect to the interchange of two branes. It obeys the orbifold symmetry y -> - y and explicitly reproduces jumps of its derivative on both branes. This general solution for sigma(y) is determined by the Einstein-Hilbert's equations up to a constant, that results in physically diverse schemes.

A. V. Kisselev

2014-03-10

376

Supernova neutrinos: The accretion disk scenario  

SciTech Connect

Neutrinos from core collapse supernovae can be emitted from a rapidly accreting disk surrounding a black hole, instead of the canonical protoneutron star. For galactic events, detector count rates are considerable and in fact can be in the thousands for Super-Kamiokande. The rate of occurrence of these accreting disks in the Galaxy is predicted to be on the order of {approx}10{sup -5} yr{sup -1}, yet there is little observational evidence to provide an upper limit on their formation rate. It would therefore be useful to discriminate between neutrinos which have been produced in a protoneutron star and those which have been produced accretion disks. In order to distinguish between the two scenarios, either the time profile of the neutrino luminosity, total energetics, or the relative fluxes of different neutrino flavors may be considered. The flavor content would clearly point to one scenario or the other.

McLaughlin, G. C. [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8202 (United States); Surman, R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Union College, Schenectady, New York 12308 (United States)

2007-01-15

377

Entropic force scenarios and eternal inflation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We examine various entropic inflation scenarios, under the light of eternality. After describing the inflation realization and the normal condition for inflation to last at the background level, we investigate the conditions for eternal inflation with the effect of thermal fluctuations produced from standard radiation and from the holographic screen. Furthermore, we incorporate stochastic quantum fluctuations through a phenomenological, Langevin analysis, studying whether they can affect the inflation eternality. In one-holographic-screen scenarios eternality can be easily obtained, while in double-screen considerations inflation is eternal only in the high-energy regime. Thus, from the cosmological point of view, one should take these into account before he can consider entropic gravity as a candidate for the description of nature. However, from the string theory point of view, inflation eternality may form the background for the landscape of string or M theory vacua, leading to new perspectives in entropy gravity.

Qiu, Taotao; Saridakis, Emmanuel N.

2012-02-01

378

TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios  

SciTech Connect

A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.

1987-10-16

379

Revisiting light neutralino scenarios in the MSSM  

E-print Network

We revisit the case of a light neutralino LSP in the framework of the MSSM. We consider a model with eleven free parameters. We show that all scenarios where the annihilation of light neutralinos rely mainly on the exchange of a light pseudoscalar are excluded by direct detection searches and by Fermi measurements of the gamma-flux from dwarf spheroidal galaxies. On the other hand, we find scenarios with light sleptons that satisfy all collider and astroparticle physics constraints. In this case, the lower limit on the LSP mass is 12.6 GeV. We discuss how the parameter space of the model will be further probed by new physics searches at the LHC.

Daniel Albornoz Vasquez; Genevieve Belanger; Celine Boehm

2011-08-05

380

Revisiting light neutralino scenarios in the MSSM  

E-print Network

We revisit the case of a light neutralino LSP in the framework of the MSSM. We consider a model with eleven free parameters. We show that all scenarios where the annihilation of light neutralinos rely mainly on the exchange of a light pseudoscalar are excluded by direct detection searches and by Fermi measurements of the gamma-flux from dwarf spheroidal galaxies. On the other hand, we find scenarios with light sleptons that satisfy all collider and astroparticle physics constraints. In this case, the lower limit on the LSP mass is 12.6 GeV. We discuss how the parameter space of the model will be further probed by new physics searches at the LHC.

Vasquez, Daniel Albornoz; Boehm, Celine

2011-01-01

381

32 CFR 239.10 - Management Controls.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...Headquarters, USACE has an existing information management system that manages all information related to the HAP program. (1... The Homeowners Assistance Program Management Information System (HAPMIS) provides program...

2010-07-01

382

ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS  

SciTech Connect

During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

2000-11-01

383

A scenario planning approach for disasters on Swiss road network  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We study a vehicular traffic scenario on Swiss roads in an emergency situation, calculating how sequentially roads block due to excessive traffic load until global collapse (gridlock) occurs and in this way displays the fragilities of the system. We used a database from Bundesamt fr Raumentwicklung which contains length and maximum allowed speed of all roads in Switzerland. The present work could be interesting for government agencies in planning and managing for emergency logistics for a country or a big city. The model used to generate the flux on the Swiss road network was proposed by Mendes et al. [Physica A391, 362 (2012)]. It is based on the conservation of the number of vehicles and allows for an easy and fast way to follow the formation of traffic jams in large systems. We also analyze the difference between a nonlinear and a linear model and the distribution of fluxes on the Swiss road.

Mendes, G. A.; Axhausen, K. W.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

2014-05-01

384

Decision support systems for flood scenario elicitation and hazard mapping  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Improved management of flood hazards in mountain catchments entails the investigation of large woody debris transport, their impact in terms of bridge clogging, and the combined effect of these phenomena with high flows in mountain rivers. Moreover, the effects of woody debris may combine with those of possible levee failure in the valley bottoms. The contribution reviews the state of the art of models and methods for the characterization of both aspects, and illustrates a blueprint of a decision support system where information on woody debris recruitment, transport capacity of the stream network, cloggability of hydraulic structures and levees are combined with hydrological information to identify the most appropriate scenarios one should consider for precautionary and realistic flood hazard assessment. The decision support system is exemplified with reference to the case study of South Tyrol, Italy.

Pistocchi, Alberto

2013-04-01

385

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory  

SciTech Connect

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

NONE

1995-08-01

386

Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020  

E-print Network

extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea SCENARIOS FOR 2020 60 4.1 MAIN RESULTS 60 4.2 ENERGY SAVINGS MEASURES 65 4.3 MEASURES IN THE TRANSPORT RESULTS 81 5.2 ENERGY SAVINGS MEASURES 86 5.3 MEASURES IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 89 5.4 SUPPLY SIDE MEASURES

387

A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

1992-01-01

388

Augmented Ambient: An Interactive Mobility Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents the Augmented Ambient project that aims to construct a highly interactive mobility scenario based on augmented\\u000a reality applications running on heterogeneous multimedia devices. Mobility is made available through ambient networks, which\\u000a are dynamic computer networks. A case study has been performed about a virtual museum, where users join a service network\\u000a that includes art pieces visualization, broadcast

Veronica Teichrieb; Severino Gomes Neto; Thiago Farias; Joo Marcelo Teixeir; Joo Paulo Lima; Gabriel Almeida; Judith Kelner

2007-01-01

389

1906 Earthquake Scenario: San Francisco Bay Area  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This map shows estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values for the City of San Francisco and the eight counties of the Greater Bay Area, in a scenario based on the 1906 earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The 430 kilometers of fault rupture included several segments during one massive earthquake. Links are supplied to more detailed maps of the cities of Rohnert Park, Pittsburg, Antioch, San Francisco, and Palo Alto.

390

The Cosmological Slingshot Scenario: Myths and Facts  

E-print Network

In this paper we clarify two important issues regarding the Cosmological Slingshot Scenario, namely the choice of frame and the creation of primordial fluctuations. In particular, we show that the Einstein frame represents a non-trivial bouncing cosmology. Regarding the calculation of the primordial perturbations, we identify their vacuum state and elucidate their evolution from the quantum to the classical regimes. Finally, we calculate the exact power spectrum of primordial perturbations showing its compatibility with current data.

Germani, Cristiano; Kehagias, Alex

2007-01-01

391

Paper waste - recycling, incineration or landfilling? A review of existing life cycle assessments.  

PubMed

A review of existing life cycle assessments (LCAs) on paper and cardboard waste has been undertaken. The objectives of the review were threefold. Firstly, to see whether a consistent message comes out of published LCA literature on optimum disposal or recycling solutions for this waste type. Such message has implications for current policy formulation on material recycling and disposal in the EU. Secondly, to identify key methodological issues of paper waste management LCAs, and enlighten the influence of such issues on the conclusions of the LCA studies. Thirdly, in light of the analysis made, to discuss whether it is at all valid to use the LCA methodology in its current development state to guide policy decisions on paper waste. A total of nine LCA studies containing altogether 73 scenarios were selected from a thorough, international literature search. The selected studies are LCAs including comparisons of different management options for waste paper. Despite claims of inconsistency, the LCAs reviewed illustrate the environmental benefits in recycling over incineration or landfill options, for paper and cardboard waste. This broad consensus was found despite differences in geographic location and definitions of the paper recycling/disposal systems studied. A systematic exploration of the LCA studies showed, however, important methodological pitfalls and sources of error, mainly concerning differences in the definition of the system boundaries. Fifteen key assumptions were identified that cover the three paper cycle system areas: raw materials and forestry, paper production, and disposal/recovery. It was found that the outcome of the individual LCA studies largely depended on the choices made in some of these assumptions, most specifically the ones concerning energy use and generation, and forestry. PMID:17433657

Villanueva, A; Wenzel, H

2007-01-01

392

Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are 97% lower compared to other anthropogenic sources like the public transport sector. The innovative sanitation scenarios were found to cause less environmental burden in terms of energy and GHGs. Nevertheless, to ensure a positive impact of these treatment systems, an optimum biogas reuse (for the production of electricity and heat), the source separation of human excreta (to disburden the wastewater treatment processes) should be introduced to reduce their GHG emissions. Keywords: Carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, methane, wastewater treatment technologies.

Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

2014-05-01

393

47 CFR 17.17 - Existing structures.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...2013-10-01 false Existing structures. 17.17 Section 17.17...MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration...Criteria 17.17 Existing structures. (a) The requirements...

2013-10-01

394

47 CFR 17.17 - Existing structures.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...2012-10-01 false Existing structures. 17.17 Section 17.17...MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration...Criteria 17.17 Existing structures. (a) The requirements...

2012-10-01

395

47 CFR 17.17 - Existing structures.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...2011-10-01 false Existing structures. 17.17 Section 17.17...MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration...Criteria 17.17 Existing structures. (a) The requirements...

2011-10-01

396

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

2012-01-01

397

Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing with economic and regulatory influences differently from other sources. The shifting stock of vessels from new-builds serving primary markets in one region to aging vessel technologies serving secondary markets produces substantial differences in future activity projections. This is compounded by the emissions differences between vessels on liner schedules and ships with similar technologies operating on charter or spot-market bases. Different rates of change drive growth among vessel types differently, so regional pattern shifts will occur, and need to be forecast or depicted in scenarios. Regulatory pathways are emerging with less clarity, but affect regional marine inputs. Scientists who measure emissions need to engage engineering principles of combustion, economics principles of supply and demand, and policy inputs to produce inventories that are more coherent, and more useful to the emerging purposes. Moreover, advanced studies (e.g., inverse modeling, source attribution, and control scenario validation) require design of closure experiments, where modeling of inventory measurements and modeled ambient impacts is corroborated and reconciled with field stack measurements and field observation campaigns. The most recent shipping inventories and scenarios are now providing details that recognize and address these issues.

Corbett, J. J.

2010-12-01

398

CZT imaging detectors for ProtoEXIST  

Microsoft Academic Search

We describe the detector development for a balloon-borne wide-field hard X-ray (20-600 keV) telescope, ProtoEXIST. ProtoEXIST is a pathfinder for both technology and science of the proposed implementation of the Black Hole Finder Probe, Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey telescope (EXIST). The principal technology challenge is the development of large area, close-tiled modules of imaging CZT detectors (1000 cm2 for ProtoEXIST1).

J. Hong; J. E. Grindlay; N. Chammas; A. Copete; R. G. Baker; S. D. Barthelmy; N. Gehrels; W. R. Cook III; J. A. Burnham; F. A. Harrison; J. Collins; W. W. Craig

2006-01-01

399

Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.

Garca-Ruiz, Jos M.; Lpez-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; LasantaMartnez, Teodoro; Beguera, Santiago

2011-04-01

400

FMDP reactor alternative summary report. Volume 1 - existing LWR alternative  

SciTech Connect

Significant quantities of weapons-usable fissile materials [primarily plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)] are becoming surplus to national defense needs in both the United States and Russia. These stocks of fissile materials pose significant dangers to national and international security. The dangers exist not only in the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons but also in the potential for environmental, safety, and health (ES&H) consequences if surplus fissile materials are not properly managed. This document summarizes the results of analysis concerned with existing light water reactor plutonium disposition alternatives.

Greene, S.R.; Bevard, B.B. [and others

1996-10-07

401

Optimal management of groundwater pumping of the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A simulation model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache area, Arkansas, was coupled with an optimization model to determine maximum optimal pumping from irrigation wells in the areas where cones of depression exist. Groundwater Vistas and Groundwater Management software were used for simulation and optimization model, respectively. The Cache area was designated as a critical groundwater area in 2009 due to the decline in its water level to below 50 % of the saturated thickness of the aquifer. The optimization model was formulated with the objective of maximizing water production from wells subjected to minimum head constraints and drawdown constraints, while limiting groundwater withdrawals to a maximum of 100 and 200 % of the rate pumped in 2010. Four different sets of managed wells were tested in Scenarios 1, 3 (938 wells) and Scenarios 2, 4 (3870 wells). The optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.59 and 2.43 Mm3/d for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. In the case of maximum pumping constraints of the managed wells specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of 2010, the optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.88 and 3.28 Mm3/d for Scenarios 3 and 4, respectively. The average optimal pumping increased by 6-49 % in the case of the maximum pumping constraint specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of the year 2010.

Rashid, Haveen; Al-Shukri, Haydar; Mahdi, Hanan

2014-03-01

402

Climate Change and Rice Yields in Diverse Agro-Environments of India. II. Effect of Uncertainties in Scenarios and Crop Models on Impact Assessment  

Microsoft Academic Search

Estimates of impact of climate change on crop production could be biased depending upon the uncertainties in climate change scenarios, region of study, crop models used for impact assessment and the level of management. This study reports the results of a study where the impact of various climate change scenarios has been assessed on grain yields of irrigated rice with

P. K. Aggarwal; R. K. Mall

2002-01-01

403

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

404

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington  

USGS Publications Warehouse

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

2011-01-01

405

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

406

Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario  

SciTech Connect

Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2011-01-25

407

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, bottom-up inventories and top-down atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr?1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr?1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

2014-10-01

408

TMJ imaging by CBCT: Current scenario  

PubMed Central

Radiographic examination forms an integral component of the clinical assessment routine in patients with temporomandibular joint disorders (TMJ). There are several imaging modalities to visualize the TMJ. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a developing technique that is being increasingly used in dentomaxillofacial imaging due to its relatively low-dose high-spatial-resolution characteristics. Research in TMJ imaging has been greatly inspired by the advent of CBCT. In this paper we aim to discuss the present scenario of the role of CBCT in TMJ imaging. PMID:23662265

Krishnamoorthy, Bhuvana; Mamatha, NS; Kumar, Vinod AR

2013-01-01

409

Application Scenarios of Ontology-Driven  

E-print Network

, in use in the domains of road traffic man- agement or air traffic control, operate in geographically wide. Large-scale control systems, as encountered in the domain of road traffic management, typically deal, Context Awareness, Road Traffic Management Introduction Large-scale control systems, as, for example

Hochreiter, Sepp

410

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...Alternative release scenario analysis. 68.28 Section 68...Alternative release scenario analysis. (a) The number... (c) Parameters to be applied. The owner or operator shall...the RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis Guidance or any...

2012-07-01

411

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...Alternative release scenario analysis. 68.28 Section 68...Alternative release scenario analysis. (a) The number... (c) Parameters to be applied. The owner or operator shall...the RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis Guidance or any...

2013-07-01

412

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of climate security, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non-linear threshold responses, can help in communicating potential stability concerns from a political/social/economic/security perspective. This research illustrates scenario improvements that approach critical climate uncertainties from a risk assessment perspective, without losing traceability of related scientific data.

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

413

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a series of statements on (i) possible preventive, compensatory and substitution strategies and (ii) an assessment of current knowledge gaps and deficiencies, with recommendations for future areas of research.

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

414

ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future West Coast storms. A task of ARkStorm is to elevate the visibility of the very real threats to human life, property, and ecosystems posed by extreme storms on the U.S. West Coast. This enhanced visibility will help increase the preparedness of the emergency management community and the public to such storms. ARkStorm is scheduled to be completed by September 2010 and will be the basis of a state-wide emergency response drill, Golden Guardian, led by the California Emergency Management Agency in 2011.

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.

2009-12-01

415

Endoscopic haemostasis: an overview of procedures and clinical scenarios.  

PubMed

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding is among the most urgent situations in daily gastroenterological practise. Endoscopy plays a key role in the diagnosis and treatment of such cases. Endoscopic haemostasis is probably the most important technical challenge that must be mastered by gastroenterologists. It is essential for both the management of acute gastrointestinal haemorrhage and the prevention of bleeding during high-risk endoscopic procedures. During the last decade, endoscopic haemostasis techniques and tools have grown in parallel with the number of devices available for endotherapy. Haemostatic powders, over-the-scope clips, haemostatic forceps, and other emerging technologies have changed daily practise and complement the standard available armamentarium (injectable, thermal, and mechanical therapy). Although there is a lack of strong evidence-based information on these procedures because of the difficulty in designing statistically powerful trials on this topic, physicians must be aware of all available devices to be able to choose the best haemostatic tool for the most effective procedure. We herein present an overview of procedures and clinical scenarios to optimise the management of gastrointestinal bleeding in daily practise. PMID:25022337

Jacques, Jrmie; Legros, Romain; Chaussade, Stanislas; Sautereau, Denis

2014-09-01

416

Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References  

SciTech Connect

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

2013-05-01

417

Dynamic stochastic optimization models for air traffic flow management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This dissertation presents dynamic stochastic optimization models for Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) that enables decisions to adapt to new information on evolving capacities of National Airspace System (NAS) resources. Uncertainty is represented by a set of capacity scenarios, each depicting a particular time-varying capacity profile of NAS resources. We use the concept of a scenario tree in which multiple scenarios are possible initially. Scenarios are eliminated as possibilities in a succession of branching points, until the specific scenario that will be realized on a particular day is known. Thus the scenario tree branching provides updated information on evolving scenarios, and allows ATFM decisions to be re-addressed and revised. First, we propose a dynamic stochastic model for a single airport ground holding problem (SAGHP) that can be used for planning Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) when there is uncertainty about future airport arrival capacities. Ground delays of non-departed flights can be revised based on updated information from scenario tree branching. The problem is formulated so that a wide range of objective functions, including non-linear delay cost functions and functions that reflect equity concerns can be optimized. Furthermore, the model improves on existing practice by ensuring efficient use of available capacity without necessarily exempting long-haul flights. Following this, we present a methodology and optimization models that can be used for decentralized decision making by individual airlines in the GDP planning process, using the solutions from the stochastic dynamic SAGHP. Airlines are allowed to perform cancellations, and re-allocate slots to remaining flights by substitutions. We also present an optimization model that can be used by the FAA, after the airlines perform cancellation and substitutions, to re-utilize vacant arrival slots that are created due to cancellations. Finally, we present three stochastic integer programming models for managing inbound air traffic flow of an airport, when there is adverse weather impacting the arrival capacity of the airport along with its arrival fixes. These are the first models, for optimizing ATFM decisions, which address uncertainty of future capacities of multiple NAS resources.

Mukherjee, Avijit

418

The future of the red metalscenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A regional copper scenario model has been developed from the perspective of the generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the four world regions: OECD90, ASIA, REF, and ALM. A set of three scenarios: Tech World, Green World, and Trend World, each representing the significant driving forces influencing population and economic growth, technological change

Amit Kapur

2005-01-01

419

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING IN KAZAKHSTAN  

Microsoft Academic Search

The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO2 concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2

Olga V. Pilifosova; Irina B. Eserkepova; Svetlana A. Dolgih

1997-01-01

420

Carbon dioxide emission scenarios: limitations of the fossil fuel resource  

Microsoft Academic Search

Contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in large part the result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Scenario analysis is commonly used to generate projections of future carbon dioxide emissions, the resulting atmospheric concentrations and climate impact. In most scenario modelling published to date, carbon dioxide emission scenarios are based on demand-side (socioeconomic and technology)

Christopher Vernon; Erica Thompson; Sarah Cornell

2011-01-01