These are representative sample records from Science.gov related to your search topic.
For comprehensive and current results, perform a real-time search at Science.gov.
1

Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh  

PubMed Central

Background Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of information for planning. This paper seeks to document the handling practice of waste (e.g. collection, storage, transportation and disposal) along with the types and amount of wastes generated by Health Care Establishments (HCE). A total of 60 out of the existing 68 HCE in the study areas provided us with relevant information. Methods The methodology for this paper includes empirical field observation and field-level data collection through inventory, questionnaire survey and formal and informal interviews. A structured questionnaire was designed to collect information addressing the generation of different medical wastes according to amount and sources from different HCE. A number of in-depth interviews were arranged to enhance our understanding of previous and existing management practice of medical wastes. A number of specific questions were asked of nurses, hospital managers, doctors, and cleaners to elicit their knowledge. The collected data with the questionnaire survey were analysed, mainly with simple descriptive statistics; while the qualitative mode of analysis is mainly in narrative form. Results The paper shows that the surveyed HCE generate a total of 5,562 kg/day of wastes, of which about 77.4 per cent are non-hazardous and about 22.6 per cent are hazardous. The average waste generation rate for the surveyed HCE is 1.9 kg/bed/day or 0.5 kg/patient/day. The study reveals that there is no proper, systematic management of medical waste except in a few private HCE that segregate their infectious wastes. Some cleaners were found to salvage used sharps, saline bags, blood bags and test tubes for resale or reuse. Conclusion The paper reveals that lack of awareness, appropriate policy and laws, and willingness are responsible for the improper management of medical waste in Dhaka City. The paper also shows that a newly designed medical waste management system currently serves a limited number of HCE. New facilities should be established for the complete management of medical waste in Dhaka City. PMID:18221548

Hassan, M Manzurul; Ahmed, Shafiul Azam; Rahman, K Anisur; Biswas, Tarit Kanti

2008-01-01

2

Environmental management scenarios: Ecological implications  

Microsoft Academic Search

The measure of whether a management scenario is capable of establishing regional-scale ecosystem sustainability is the degree to which it recovers the historical characteristics of the regional landscape mosaic. This study examines the ability of alternate management scenarios to recover the defining ecological features of the Everglades and South Florida landscape. Five conceptual scenarios are evaluated for recovering and sustaining

John C. Ogden; Joan A. Browder; John H. Gentile; Lance H. Gunderson; Robert Fennema; John Wang

1999-01-01

3

Scenario Management: An Interdisciplinary Approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario management (SM) means different things to different people, even though everyone seems to admit its current importance and its further potential. In this paper, we seek to provide an interdisciplinary framework for SM from three major disciplines that use scenarios - strategic management, human-computer interaction, and software and systems engineering - to deal with description of current and future

Matthias Jarke; Tung X. Bui; John M. Carroll

1998-01-01

4

Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

5

Flood Management Scenarios Based on Hydrodynamic Modeling  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes the scenarios developed to assist in the understanding of possible future situations of the complex river system as a part of knowledge acquisition process. Due to complexity of river system, knowledge acquisition is a major bottleneck to develop an expert system for forecasting flood. Operation of flood control gates has a very important role in flood alleviation.

Ian David

2008-01-01

6

An examination of the ethical beliefs of managers using selected scenarios in a cross-cultural environment  

Microsoft Academic Search

Academic literature addressing the topic of business ethics has paid little attention to cross-cultural studies of business ethics. Uncertainty exists concerning the effect of culture on ethical beliefs. The purpose of this research is to compare the ethical beliefs of managers operating in South Africa and Australia. Responses of 52 managers to a series of ethical scenarios were sought. Results

Russell Abratt; Deon Nel; Nicola Susan Higgs

1992-01-01

7

Agricultural water management scenarios to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In this work we combine different tools to evaluate impact of water management scenarios in an agricultural basin. Here we first develop a spatio-temporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. In a second step, the water budget model is used to provide recharge and pumping values for each field as input for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2005. Results of the simulations obtained by means of the simple coupled soil water budget model/analytical model have been used to select and design with the engagement of stakeholders feasible management scenarios. The latter have been implemented in the numerical groundwater model. Results and insights from both modelling approaches are discussed. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations obtained with the two approaches suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance - stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site specific feasibility studies. The further implementation of the management scenarios into the numerical groundwater model provides details on the local impact of the results and more insights about specific data collection and needed infrastructures in order to practically develop the management scenarios.

Foglia, Laura; Harter, Thomas

2014-05-01

8

Practical Tips for Managing Challenging Scenarios in Undergraduate Research  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Mathematical Association of America (MAA) has been involved in a number of new initiatives as of late, and one such project is the "Resources for Undergraduate Research". This series brings together topical information on new research methods and strategies for working with undergraduate students on a number of mathematical endeavors. This particular paper looks at how to best manage different scenarios that might arise during the research advising process. Authored by Sarah Adams and Darren A. Narayan, this document is based on solutions discussed by a group of faculty members that participated in the 2008 Center for Undergraduate Research in Mathematics Workshop. The five-page document discusses five specific scenarios that might occur (including what might be done if a student tends to dominate or control a group project) and offers some specific and concrete solutions to such difficulties. The scenarios discussed could occur in more than just college math classrooms, so this document is broadly relevant for many groups of educators.

Bailey, Brad; Budden, Mark; Ghosh-Dastidar, Urmi

2009-01-01

9

Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

2013-12-01

10

Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

2011-01-01

11

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades  

PubMed Central

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

12

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling  

PubMed Central

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-01-01

13

Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.  

PubMed

Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the corresponding system patterns in terms of the proposed architecture, and make this concrete by presenting some comprehensive interaction examples as comic strip stories. Next, we discuss the implementation requirements and how they can be met with the available technologies, discuss a possible architecture, refine it in the concrete case of the TuCSoN coordination technology, present a subsystem prototype and discuss its properties in the Butlers perspective. PMID:24555169

Denti, Enrico

2014-01-01

14

Airport pavement management systems: an appraisal of existing methodologies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Airport pavement management systems (APMS) are computer-based decision support systems that can be used by the agencies running airports to determine cost-effective maintenance and rehabilitation strategies to preserve the various pavement structures (runways, taxiways, etc.) which are a critical component of these facilities. In this paper, we describe the main elements of APMS and review existing systems.

Michel Gendreau; Patrick Soriano

1998-01-01

15

Scenarios as a tool in water management: Considerations of scale and application  

Microsoft Academic Search

In recent years, the use of scenarios for creative visioning of potential futures for planning and strategy testing has become increasingly popular. Water management has not been excluded in this trend and many case studies of scenario application can be identified. Three scenario exercises are considered in this paper—the regional Societal and Institutional Responses to Climate Change and Climatic Hazards

Thomas E. Downing; Kate Lonsdale

2003-01-01

16

Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example  

SciTech Connect

This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

2011-12-01

17

The use of scenarios and gaming in crisis management planning and training  

SciTech Connect

This paper provides a brief introduction to scenarios and gaming. It clarifies the definitions of each, discusses their possible uses and purposes, and presents some principles of good practice. In then describes how scenarios and gaming can be used together with a computerized crisis management decision support system to provide useful tools for crisis management planning and training.

Walker, W.E. [RAND/European-American Center for Policy Analysis, Delft (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

18

Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable Document Format file.

Banta, Edward R.

2014-01-01

19

Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools  

E-print Network

. In particular, effective training scenarios require a combination of content contributed via pre-authored scripts and content generated dynamically during the training exercise. Large-scale exercises require multiple domain experts contributing oversight...

Riddle, Austin Christopher

2008-10-10

20

The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.  

PubMed

The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

2013-12-01

21

Scientific and technological uncertainty, the precautionary principle, scenarios and risk management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Uncertainty, the precautionary principle and scenario are three important concepts in current regulatory debates concerned with risk management. In this paper, each concept is described in relation to its regulatory context and a linkage between the three concepts is established. Three scenarios relating to increasing scientific and technical uncertainty are presented. The most obvious regulatory approach to uncertainty is to

Michael D. Rogers

2001-01-01

22

Considering Control Theory in Resource Management Scenarios A Djafari Marbini and Lionel Sacks  

E-print Network

Considering Control Theory in Resource Management Scenarios A Djafari Marbini and Lionel Sacks Department of Electronic and electrical Engineering, University College London Abstract: Control theory has traditional control theory mechanisms to controlthis dynamic and complex system 2. The problem

Haddadi, Hamed

23

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY  

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

24

Stand establishment: Researching operational vegetation management scenarios designed to  

E-print Network

growth benefits Eric Dinger Dr. Robin Rose VMRC Mission Statement Conduct applied reforestation research vegetation management. Promote reforestation success such that survival, wood-crop biomass and growth

25

Acyclic Traffic Management in FieldBus Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In process control enviroments, acyclic traffic management creates several problems as it is not possible to know the amount of traffic, and thus the bandwidth required, a priori. In this paper the authors deal with the problem of managing acyclic traffic, using some of the instruments provided by the FieldBus Data Link Layer protocol. Two scheduling policies are proposed and

S. Cavalieri; A. Di Stefano; O. Mirabella

1992-01-01

26

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

27

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

2013-04-01

28

Progress and Pitfalls in Global Change Scenario Use for Water Resources Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water resources was one of the first sectors where focused interest in potential management challenges regarding future climate change was exhibited. This interest was a function of the relatively long planning horizon for water resources infrastructure as well as the centrality of the resource to most human enterprises. As the challenge of climate change draws nearer, use of scenarios for long-term planning has become more critical. To sensibly assess the threats and (sometimes) opportunities that water managers face they need scenarios of climate change and other key future factors (e.g., population, technology, economic development) to determine the climate's future impact on their sector and the factors that influence vulnerability. One key issue in scenario formation (and quantification of uncertainty characterized initially in scenarios) is that of reflexivity, or how to represent decisions within scenarios. This is usually an issue in scenarios of socio-economic development and other factors that influence the development of projections of emissions. One school of thought suggests that scenarios that directly involve human agency should not become part of a probabilistic enterprise, while another suggests that the condition poses no problem for rendering future population, technological advances etc.. This issue will be discussed in the context of water resource management needs for information about the future.

Mearns, L. O.

2006-12-01

29

Situation-Based Access Control: privacy management via modeling of patient data access scenarios  

E-print Network

1 Situation-Based Access Control: privacy management via modeling of patient data access scenarios@technion.ac.il Fax number: 972-9-8981305 #12;2 Abstract Access control is a central problem in privacy management. A common practice in controlling access to sensitive data, such as electronic health records (EHRs

Peleg, Mor

30

Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

Vajk, J. P.

1978-01-01

31

Contextualizing Learning Scenarios According to Different Learning Management Systems  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In this paper, we first demonstrate that an instructional design process of Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) systems based on a Model Driven Approach (MDA) addresses the limits of Learning Technology Standards (LTS), such as SCORM and IMS-LD. Although these standards ensure the interoperability of TEL systems across different Learning Management

Drira, R.; Laroussi, M.; Le Pallec, X.; Warin, B.

2012-01-01

32

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

33

Evaluation of Operations Scenarios for Managing the Big Creek Marsh  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetland management in changing climate is important for maintaining sustainable ecosystem as well as for reducing the impact of climate change on the environment as wetlands act as natural carbon sinks. The Big Creek Marsh within the Essex County is a Provincially Significant Wetland (PSW) in Ontario, Canada. The marsh is approximately 900 hectares in area and is primarily fed by streamflow from the Big Creek Watershed. The water level of this wetland has been managed by the stakeholders using a system of pumps, dykes and a controlled outlet to the Lake Erie. In order to adequately manage the Big Creek Marsh and conserve diverse aquatic plant species, Essex Region Conservation Authority (ERCA), Ontario has embarked on developing an Operations Plan to maintain desire water depths during different marsh phases, viz., Open water, Hemi and Overgrown marsh phases. The objective of the study is to evaluate the alternatives for managing water level of the Big Creek Marsh in different marsh phases. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a continuous simulation model was used to simulate streamflow entering into the marsh from the Big Creek watershed. A Water Budget (WB) model was developed for the Big Creek Marsh to facilitate in operational management of the marsh. The WB model was applied to simulate the marsh level based on operations schedules, and available weather and hydrologic data aiming to attain the target water depths for the marsh phases. This paper presents the results of simulated and target water levels, streamflow entering into the marsh, water releasing from the marsh, and water pumping into and out of the marsh under different hydrologic conditions.

Wilson, Ian; Rahman, Masihur; Wychreschuk, Jeremy; Lebedyk, Dan; Bolisetti, Tirupati

2013-04-01

34

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.  

PubMed

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

35

Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

Khambatta, Cyrus F.

2007-01-01

36

Commercial Surrogacy in India: An Ethical Assessment of Existing Legal Scenario from the Perspective of Women’s Autonomy and Reproductive Rights  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article explores the reasons behind the rising popularity of commercial surrogacy in India against the backdrop of the landmark Baby Manji case, and its implications for the existing legal scenario and the debate on reproductive rights. It also highlights some ethical frames that have been applied in the Indian context. These include (a) the liberal feminist principle of women’s

Sreeja Jaiswal

2012-01-01

37

Situation-Based Access Control: Privacy management via modeling of patient data access scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Access control is a central problem in privacy management. A common practice in controlling access to sensitive data, such as electronic health records (EHRs), is Role-Based Access Control (RBAC). RBAC is limited as it does not account for the circumstances under which access to sensitive data is requested. Following a qualitative study that elicited access scenarios, we used Object-Process Methodology

Mor Peleg; Dizza Beimel; Dov Dori; Yaron Denekamp

2008-01-01

38

How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

2012-01-01

39

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed value. However, this cost was minimal when local conservation actions were part of a concerted coast-wide plan. The simulations demonstrate the utility of using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model within NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, by illustrating an end-to-end modeling tool that allows consideration of multiple management alternatives that are relevant to numerous state, federal and private interests.

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

40

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.  

PubMed

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions. PMID:18488629

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

41

Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target species, facilitating the development of control measures to achieve a healthy balance between stock exploitation and socio-economic factors.

Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celi?, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgo?, Nedo; Isajlovi?, Igor; Mar?eta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

2014-05-01

42

Advanced MAN management systems: existing specifications and prototype  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper aims at giving a general description of major issues related to network management of IEEE/ETSI DQDB standard compliant Metropolitan Area Networks. The specifications defined within both the European standard-setting body (ETSI) and the European SMDS Interest Group (ESIG) are described and the characteristics of a prototype under development in the MANTIS European research and development project in the ESPRIT framework are illustrated.

Vercelli, Roberto

1993-10-01

43

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.  

PubMed

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

44

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident  

PubMed Central

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

45

Police Integrity: Rankings of Scenarios on the Klockars Scale by ‘‘Management Cops’’  

Microsoft Academic Search

Policing is recognized as a morally dangerous profession. This study extends analyses of police corruption via a scale developed by Carl Klockars by surveying police managers attending the Administrative Officers’ Course at the Southern Police Institute at the University of Louisville. The findings indicate that these police managers acknowledge the existence of a questionable moral climate in police agencies and

Gennaro F. Vito; Scott Wolfe; George E. Higgins; William F. Walsh

2011-01-01

46

Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management  

PubMed Central

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-01-01

47

Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.  

PubMed

Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. PMID:25617786

Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

2015-03-15

48

15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations...Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922—Existing Management Areas Boundary...

2010-01-01

49

15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations...Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922—Existing Management Areas Boundary...

2012-01-01

50

15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations...Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922—Existing Management Areas Boundary...

2011-01-01

51

15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates  

...Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations...Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922—Existing Management Areas Boundary...

2014-01-01

52

15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations...Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922—Existing Management Areas Boundary...

2013-01-01

53

EMI Risk Management with the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

EMI risk assessment is a process for identifying, analyzing, and developing mitigation strategies for risks caused by electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The EMI risk assessment incorporates risk analysis and risk management, i.e., it combines systematic processes for risk identification, and evaluation, and how to deal with these risks. This chapter introduces a novel methodology for EMI risk assessment at system level, the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (TSECA). The TSECA is based on the general principle of the well-established Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), which has been modified to include.

Sabath, F.

54

Impact of peatland drainage and restoration on esker groundwater resources: modeling future scenarios for management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esker aquifers are common groundwater bodies in Europe. Management of these aquifers should take account of the sustainability of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and land use in an integrated way. An unconfined esker aquifer in northern Finland was modelled with MODFLOW to determine how groundwater resources are impacted by the surrounding peatland drainage scheme and to simulate scenarios for possible drainage restoration. The impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change were also simulated. A calibration-constrained Monte Carlo method was used to provide information on the uncertainties associated with model predictions. The results suggest that peatland drainage in the vicinity of eskers can have a significant role in lowering the water table, even though climate variability may mask these impacts. Drainage restoration by filling the ditches might have positive impacts on the aquifer water levels. Comparison of water-table changes caused by peatland drainage with the changes brought by water abstraction and climate variability helped to quantify impacts of different land-use scenarios and facilitated discussion with the local stakeholders. Based on this study, more attention should be devoted to peatland drainage schemes in integrated groundwater management of esker aquifers.

Rossi, Pekka M.; Ala-aho, Pertti; Doherty, John; Kløve, Bjørn

2014-08-01

55

Improving IT Management at the BMW Group by Integrating Existing IT Management Processes  

Microsoft Academic Search

The management of IT landscapes consisting of thousands of business applications, different middleware systems, and supporting various business processes is a challenge for modern IT management. The BMW Group has addressed this challenge by establishing an integrated IT management process which covers strategy, architecture, planning and controlling.

Florian Fischer; Florian Matthes; André Wittenburg

2005-01-01

56

Assessment of carbon stores in tree biomass for two management scenarios in Russia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate quantification of terrestrial carbon storage and its change is of key importance to improved understanding of global carbon dynamics. Forest management influences carbon sequestration and release patterns, and gap models are well suited for evaluating carbon storage. An individual-based gap model of forest dynamics, FAREAST, is applied across Russia to estimate aboveground carbon storage under management scenarios. Current biomass from inventoried forests across Russia is compared to model-based estimates and potential levels of biomass are estimated for a set of simplified forestry practices. Current carbon storage in eastern Russia was lower than for the northwest and south, and lower than model estimates likely due to high rates of disturbance. Model-derived carbon storage in all regions was not significantly different between the simulated ‘current’ and hypothetical ‘even-aged’ management strategies using rotations of 150 and 210 years. Simulations allowing natural maturation and harvest after 150 years show a significant increase in aboveground carbon in all regions. However, it is unlikely that forests would be left unharvested to 150 years of age to attain this condition. These applications indicate the value of stand simulators, applied over broad regions such as Russia, as tools to evaluate the effect of management regimes on aboveground carbon storage.

Shuman, Jacquelyn K.; Shugart, Herman H.; Krankina, Olga N.

2013-12-01

57

Groundwater artificial recharge solutions for integrated management of watersheds and aquifer systems under extreme drought scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The paper addresses groundwater artificial recharge solutions for integrated management of watersheds and aquifer systems under extreme drought scenarios. The conceptual idea of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) is considered as one of the scientific based solutions towards scientific based mitigation measures to climate variability and change in many parts of the world. In Portugal two European Union sponsored 6th Framework Programme for Research Projects have been addressing this topic, namely GABARDINE Project on "Groundwater artificial recharge based on alternative sources of water: Advanced integrated technologies and management" and the Coordinated Action ASEMWATERNet, a "Multi-Stakeholder Platform for ASEM S&T Cooperation on Sustainable Water Use". An application of Aquifer Storage and Recovery methodologies aiming drought mitigation and Integrated Water Resource Management of the Algarve (Portugal). The technique of artificial recharge of groundwater is used in many parts of the world with several aims, e.g. water storing in appropriate aquifers for the mitigation of future water needs during droughts or as protection against pollution or even for the recovery of groundwater quality. Artificial recharge of the aquifer systems of Campina de Faro and Silves-Querença is addressed in this paper, proposed to be an alternative to decrease the vulnerability of the Algarve to a future drought. Integrated management of water resources in the Algarve is not a clear issue since the last decade, when groundwater resources that supplied almost all water needs, have been drastically replaced by surface water stored in new reservoirs.

Lobo-Ferreira, Joao-Paulo; Oliveira, Luís.; Diamantino, Catarina

2010-05-01

58

Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation  

SciTech Connect

The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Fuente, J.L. de la [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain); Prieto, F.J. [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain)

1996-05-01

59

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

60

The economics of managing carbon via forestry: Assessment of existing studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

The purpose of this paper is to assess the existing studies on the economics of using forests as a means of mitigating atmospheric carbon build-up. This assessment addresses conceptual and empirical issues and provides a basis for a comprehensive and cost efficient forest management strategy. Critical needs and opportunities for future research are identified.

Roger A. Sedjo; Joe Wisniewski; Alaric V. Sample; John D. Kinsman

1995-01-01

61

Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, T.R.

2007-01-01

62

Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.  

PubMed

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

2013-10-15

63

Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

2011-12-01

64

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed VWRS model will account for the blue water component of the system (water taken from the rivers and reservoirs) as well as the green water (soil water used by agriculture), and track water-dependent products and services (energy, mining, crops, and industrial products). The system dynamics approach is used as a simulation environment for constructing the VWRS model due to its ability to accommodate hydrological and non-hydrological variables in one modeling platform. A set of scenarios representing various levels of water availability, combined with a set of various priorities of water uses, will be considered and tested. The scenarios will be evaluated with regard to the overall value of water use. The findings will be used to develop water value-based allocation priorities and reservoir operating rules. This novel modeling tool and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying virtual and value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. In this paper, the first and tentative version of the VWRS model is presented and applied to the Saskatchewan portion of the SSRB. Various scenarios of changes of the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan will be considered and tested to validate the VWRS model.

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

65

Childhood exposure to DEHP, DBP and BBP under existing chemical management systems: a comparative study of sources of childhood exposure in Korea and in Denmark.  

PubMed

In this paper, the cumulative risks of Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), Di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), and Benzyl-butyl phthalate (BBP) to 2-year-old children in two countries: one European (Denmark) and one Asian (South Korea) were compared. Denmark does not produce phthalates as a raw material, while Korea produces more than 0.4milliontons of the three above-mentioned phthalates each year. First, a comparative review of the existing phthalate regulations in the two countries was performed. Next, the level of childhood phthalate exposure from environmental and food sources was estimated using an exposure scenario approach. Then, the scenario based exposure level was compared with back-calculated exposure levels based on biomonitored urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations. The result verifies the existence of varying territorial human background exposure levels and the gap between exposure estimations based on exposure modeling and biomonitoring data. Cumulative childhood risk levels in Denmark were lower than in Korea. For both countries, risk levels from back calculation were higher than those from scenario estimation. The median cumulative risk levels from scenario estimation and back calculation respectively were 0.24 and up to 0.5 in Denmark while 0.52 and up to 0.95 in Korea. Food and indoor dust were the main exposure sources for all three phthalates. In order to protect human health from cumulative risks of these phthalates, the exposure scenarios in existing regulations such as the EU REACH need to be strengthened. Moreover, based on the contributions from different exposure sources, national specific risk management tools need to be developed and strengthened, applying a systemic approach to promote sustainable material flows. PMID:24270398

Lee, Jihyun; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Kim, Chan-Kook; Thomsen, Marianne

2014-02-01

66

A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil  

PubMed Central

Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process. PMID:23311826

2013-01-01

67

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

68

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios  

PubMed Central

Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials. PMID:23369357

2013-01-01

69

MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE SPORTS INJURIES AND MEDICAL CONDITIONS BY PHYSICAL THERAPISTS: ASSESSMENT VIA CASE SCENARIOS  

PubMed Central

Purpose/Background: Some physical therapists (PTs) provide services at sporting events, but there are limited studies investigating whether PTs are properly prepared to provide such services. The purpose of this study was to assess acute sports injury and medical condition management decision-making skills of PTs. Methods: A Web-based survey presented 17 case scenarios related to acute medical conditions and sport injuries. PTs from the Sports Physical Therapy Section of The American Physical Therapy Association were e-mailed a cover letter/Web link to the survey and invited to participate over a 30-day period. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results: A total of 411 of 5158 PTs who were members of the Sports Physical Therapy Association in 2009 and had valid e-mail addresses completed the survey, of which 389 (7.5%) were appropriate for analysis. Over 75.0% of respondents felt “prepared” or “somewhat prepared” to provide immediate care for 13 out of 16 medical conditions, with seizures, spinal cord injuries, and internal organ injuries having the lowest percentages. Over 75.0% of the respondents made “appropriate” or “overly cautious” decisions for 11 of the 17 acute injury or medical condition cases. Conclusions: Results of the current study indicate that PTs felt more “prepared” and tended to make “appropriate” return to play decisions on the acute sports injury and medical condition case studies more often than coaches who participated in a similar study, regardless of level of importance of the game or whether the athlete was a starter vs. non-starter. However, for PTs who plan on assisting at sporting events, additional preparation/education may be recommended, such as what is taught in an emergency responder course. PMID:21904695

Karges, Joy Renae; Salsbery, Mitchell A.; Smith, Danna; Stanley, Erica J.

2011-01-01

70

Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.

Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.

1990-08-01

71

Supervised Learning for a Fuzzy Neural Network Implementing Joint Radio Resource Management in a Multi-Radio Access Technology Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper focuses on the analysis of the training mechanisms of a Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) designed to perform Joint Radio Resource Management (JRRM) in a multi-Radio Access Technology (multi-RAT) scenario. Two supervised learning algorithms based on reinforcement learning mechanisms are presented. The first one modifies the membership function shapes (i.e. the mean and standard deviation parameters) in order to

L. Giupponi; R. Agustí; J. Pérez-Romero; O. Sallent

72

Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site  

SciTech Connect

Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

1980-11-01

73

A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

74

Administrative Problem-Solving for Writing Programs and Writing Centers: Scenarios in Effective Program Management.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Addressing the issues and problems faced by writing program administrators (WPAs) and writing center directors (WCDs), and how they can most effectively resolve the political, pedagogical, and financial questions that arise, this book presents essays from experienced WPAs and WCDs at a wide variety of institutions that offer scenarios and case…

Myers-Breslin, Linda

75

Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration in the southwest

Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

2006-12-01

76

Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.  

PubMed

The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. PMID:24161647

Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

2013-12-01

77

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China  

SciTech Connect

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China); Li Xiangzhi [Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, 1301 Catherine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhaojie Cui [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)

2010-11-15

78

The Analysis of the Co-Existence between Effective Operation Management and Quality Management in Convention, Hotel and Airline Businesses  

Microsoft Academic Search

Service quality is regarded as an essential issue which is mainly about customer expectation and staff performance. To succeed in managing services, characteristics of service must be concerned by managers. It is possible to say that effective operation management and quality management have been utilized to produce better service quality. This paper presents how well the effective operation management and

Anan Chieochankitkan

79

Delineation of Critical Areas and Developing Best Management Scenarios for a Field Using Simulation Model APEX  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

Targeting critical management areas (CMAs) within fields is essential to maximize cultivation area while implementing management practices to minimize impacts on water quality. The objective of this study was to develop a physically-based index to identify CMAs in a 32-ha field. The field was chara...

80

CO2 deserts: implications of existing CO2 supply limitations for carbon management.  

PubMed

Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change will require deep reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the scale of gigatonnes per year. CO2 capture and utilization and/or storage technologies are a class of approaches that can substantially reduce CO2 emissions. Even though examples of this approach, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, are already being practiced on a scale >0.05 Gt/year, little attention has been focused on the supply of CO2 for these projects. Here, facility-scale data newly collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was processed to produce the first comprehensive map of CO2 sources from industrial sectors currently supplying CO2 in the United States. Collectively these sources produce 0.16 Gt/year, but the data reveal the presence of large areas without access to CO2 at an industrially relevant scale (>25 kt/year). Even though some facilities with the capability to capture CO2 are not doing so and in some regions pipeline networks are being built to link CO2 sources and sinks, much of the country exists in "CO2 deserts". A life cycle analysis of the sources reveals that the predominant source of CO2, dedicated wells, has the largest carbon footprint further confounding prospects for rational carbon management strategies. PMID:25137398

Middleton, Richard S; Clarens, Andres F; Liu, Xiaowei; Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan S

2014-10-01

81

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

82

Nasal Foreign Bodies: A Review of Management Strategies and a Clinical Scenario Presentation  

PubMed Central

We report a case of a toothbrush head lodged into the nasal cavity, which required an external rhinoplasty for retrieval. A review of the literature on management strategies in case of nasal foreign bodies is presented. PMID:22379507

Patil, Pavan M.; Anand, Rajeev

2011-01-01

83

Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called “reserve” (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users’ associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users’ behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not suffice during dry years. Nevertheless, the ease of use of the model and its user-friendly interfaces make it particularly useful for discussions and dialogue on water resources management among stakeholders; it can also be used to promote greater awareness and understanding of key issues and concerns among the public.

Lévite, Hervé; Sally, Hilmy; Cour, Julien

84

Effectiveness of alternative management scenarios on the sediment load in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

The AnnAGNPS model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management Practices (MPs) on soil erosion and sediment load in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2) located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was previously calibrated and validated using f...

85

PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION FROM CONTRASTING MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

To identify and develop economically viable and environmentally sustainable farming systems, the risks and benefits associated with various management strategies need to be characterized. It is hypothesized that minimized tillage and diversified crop rotation can improve soil quality and enhance sus...

86

An opportunistic authority evaluation scheme for data security in crisis management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

We propose a novel version and implementation of the Policy-based Authority Evaluation Scheme (PAES) to protect data disseminated amongst the responders to an emergency situation when no network connectivity is available. In such situations Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN) are used to disseminate the data by exploiting the peers' mobility in the area. However, existing DTN protection models require recipients to

Enrico Scalavino; Giovanni Russello; Rudi Ball; Vaibhav Gowadia; Emil C. Lupu

2010-01-01

87

Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)  

SciTech Connect

This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances.

Williams, D. G.

2003-02-26

88

Concentration-time exposure index for modeling soil fumigation under various management scenarios.  

PubMed

Best management decisions in soil fumigation require informed management selections of soil type, field geometry, application dosage, and depth to maximize fumigant distribution for efficacy and minimize off-site transport for environmental safety. An efficacy- or exposure-based concentration-time exposure index (CTEI) was used to serve as a continuous quantitative efficacy assessment for soil fumigation by subsurface drip irrigation using numerical model simulations. The CTEI was defined as the ratio between the soil volume where concentration-time (CT) exceeded a threshold value for a particular pest-fumigant combination and the total soil volume required for fumigation treatment. Applications of CTEI as a simple efficacy index were demonstrated by simulating combinations of three soil types (loam, sandy loam, sand); three field configurations consisting of 102- and 203-cm-wide bed systems and a flat surface system; three application depths (15, 30, 45 cm); and two application rates (82 and 327 kg ha(-1)) for 1,3-dichloropropene against citrus nematode (Tylenchulus semipenetrans) using a threshold air-phase CT value of 12 microg h cm(-3) obtained from a separate field study. For soil fumigation by subsurface drip irrigation, the order of importance in optimizing CTEI was soil type, depth of application and depth of treatment, dosage, and field configuration. Model simulation using CTEI as a numeric efficacy index can be an effective alternative to assist in the planning of field trials for making final management decisions concerning soil fumigation or other pesticide applications. PMID:15074821

Wang, D; He, J M; Knuteson, J A

2004-01-01

89

Using Existing Teams to Teach about Teams: How an MBA Course in Managing Teams Helps Students and the Program  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article chronicles the unique manner in which a second-year MBA elective course in managing teams has been crafted using existing first-year learning teams as its core. The design and orchestration of this course are detailed, as are the challenges posed, in delivering a course that not only teaches about teams and team dynamics but does so…

Isabella, Lynn A.

2005-01-01

90

Influential factors in the trust relationships existing between financial analysts and corporate managers in Iran  

Microsoft Academic Search

This research explored the role of trust in the relationship between the financial analysts and corporate managers in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) by focusing on two important aspects of the trust relationship. These aspects are key trustworthiness factors and the influential factors to perceive these key factors. Financial analysts use financial reports, which are prepared by corporate managers, in their

Mehdi ArabSalehi Nasrabadi

2006-01-01

91

Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Çorlu Town of Turkey  

Microsoft Academic Search

Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Çorlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management.This paper presents a general overview

Esra. Tinmaz; Ibrahim . Demir

2006-01-01

92

From Eutrophic to Mesotrophic: Modelling Watershed Management Scenarios to Change the Trophic Status of a Reservoir  

PubMed Central

Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

2014-01-01

93

From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.  

PubMed

Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

2014-03-01

94

Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

Munson, John B.

1988-01-01

95

Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single Family Homes (Revised)  

SciTech Connect

This document focuses on managing the driving forces which move air and moisture across the building envelope. While other previously published Measure Guidelines focus on elimination of air pathways, the ultimate goal of this Measure Guideline is to manage drivers which cause air flow and water vapor transport across the building envelope (and also within the home), control air infiltration, keep relative humidity (RH) within acceptable limits, avoid combustion safety problems, improve occupant comfort, and reduce house energy use.

Cummings, J.; Withers, C.; Martin, E.; Moyer, N.

2012-10-01

96

Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

2011-09-01

97

Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an existing, relational database containing oceanographic metadata, along with an existing interface coded in Cold Fusion middleware, to a Drupal6 Content Management System. The goal was to translate all the existing database tables, input forms, website reports, and other features present in the existing system to employ Drupal CMS features. The replacement features include Drupal content types, CCK node-reference fields, themes, RDB, SPARQL, workflow, and a number of other supporting modules. Strategic use of some Drupal6 CMS features enables three separate but complementary interfaces that provide access to oceanographic research metadata via the MySQL database: 1) a Drupal6-powered front-end; 2) a standard SQL port (used to provide a Mapserver interface to the metadata and data; and 3) a SPARQL port (feeding a new faceted search capability being developed). Future plans include the creation of science ontologies, by scientist/technologist teams, that will drive semantically-enabled faceted search capabilities planned for the site. Incorporation of semantic technologies included in the future Drupal 7 core release is also anticipated. Using a public domain CMS as opposed to proprietary middleware, and taking advantage of the many features of Drupal 6 that are designed to support semantically-enabled interfaces will help prepare the BCO-DMO database for interoperability with other ecosystem databases.

Maffei, A. R.; Chandler, C. L.; Work, T.; Allen, J.; Groman, R. C.; Fox, P. A.

2009-12-01

98

Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system.  

PubMed

The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems. PMID:21774437

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Johnson, Craig R; Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Chérubin, Laurent M; Arias-González, J Ernesto; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2011-06-01

99

Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey  

SciTech Connect

Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.

Tinmaz, Esra [Trakya University, Corlu Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, 59860 Corlu/Tekirdag (Turkey)]. E-mail: esratinmaz@gmail.com; Demir, Ibrahim [Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, Maslak/Istanbul (Turkey)]. E-mail: idemir@itu.edu.tr

2006-07-01

100

Does gender bias exist in the medical management of heart failure?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to ascertain the presence of gender bias in the medical management of heart failure, and to assess its association with the specialty of the caregiver physician. Methods: In 309 patients with documented left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction <45%) and at least one hospitalization for heart failure, we assessed the frequency of use

Kishore J. Harjai; Eduardo Nunez; J. Stewart Humphrey; Tansel Turgut; Mehul Shah; Jeff Newman

2000-01-01

101

Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial  

PubMed Central

Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations—teachers and nurses—that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0.5%) in chronic “trait” anxiety. A similar pattern was found for coping skills: both treatments were able to significantly increase most coping skills, but only EG participants reported a significant increase (EG=14% vs CG=0.3%) in the Emotional Support skill. Conclusions Our findings provide initial evidence that the Interreality protocol yields better outcomes than the traditionally accepted gold standard for psychological stress treatment: CBT. Consequently, these findings constitute a sound foundation and rationale for the importance of continuing future research in technology-enhanced protocols for psychological stress management. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01683617; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01683617 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6QnziHv3h). PMID:25004803

Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

102

Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.  

PubMed

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-09-01

103

Science Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Focuses on using science-related issues in classrooms. Explains how to select these issues and create a scenario, and presents a sample scenario for a role-playing activity. Provides several format structures for role-plays. (YDS)

Cronin-Jones, Linda

2000-01-01

104

Example Scenarios  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This section explores several hypothetical scenarios of nuclear-weapon detonations on U.S. cities. These scenarios are meant to illustrate the possibilities of such events. Scenarios include a "what-if" scenario of a 150-kiloton nuclear explosion by terrorists on New York City, and the effects of a nuclear accident or "broken arrow" on board a nuclear submarine in San Francisco Bay.

Christopher Griffith

105

On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale, accurate predictions cannot be made. What can be provided at best are reasonable scenarios, which describe a set of plausible trajectories based on the best information available about the present trends and specific assumptions about future evolution of the system. Scenarios thus give a better indication of the range of plausible futures than analyses based solely on aleatory uncertainty of present trends. Unfortunately, applying this approach to the coastal zone often emphasizes the large uncertainties and wide range of plausible futures (particularly if a realistic variety of assumptions is considered). We have developed an observation-based approach to scenarios for future local sea levels which allows us to consider a wide range of assumptions concerning the main contributions (vertical land motion, steric changes in the ocean volume, atmospheric circulation changes, and ocean-ice mass exchange) and thus to assess the full range of plausible futures a given location might be facing, including the associated uncertainties. We will demonstrate the approach for three example locations (Venice, New Orleans, Boston) and discuss the relative weight of the uncertainties in the forcing factors at these locations. Communicating the range of plausible futures and the uncertainties to decision makers in a proper way is a key problem that we as scientists too often tend to ignore.

Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

2007-12-01

106

Co-existent thyroid disease in patients treated for primary hyperparathyroidism: implications for clinical management.  

PubMed

Treatment for primary hyperparathyroidism necessitates complete excision of involved parathyroid tissue. Simultaneous thyroidectomy may also be required in order to optimise operative access and/or where suspicion of synchronous abnormal thyroid pathology exists. We sought to determine how often simultaneous removal of thyroid tissue was required during parathyroidectomy and the nature of any associated pathology. Radiology reports were also reviewed to determine how often confirmed thyroid pathology from histological specimens, benign or malignant, had been identified pre-operatively. A retrospective chart review of 135 parathyroidectomy procedures performed between 2003 and 2013 was performed. Of 135 parathyroidectomy procedures, 39 patients (29 %) underwent simultaneous partial thyroidectomy of which 36 (27 % of total parathyroidectomies) had dual pathology confirmed. Specifically, malignant lesions were identified in 14 % (n = 5), Graves' disease 3 % (n = 1), thyroiditis 17 % (n = 6), multinodular goitre 50 % (n = 18), unilateral nodule 6 % (n = 2), hyperplasia 8 % (n = 3) and intra-thyroid adenoma 3 % (n = 1). Reference to these thyroid lesions was made in only 47 % of preoperative radiology reports. In conclusion, synchronous thyroid surgery was required in 29 % of all parathyroidectomy procedures performed for treatment of primary hyperparathyroidism with malignant thyroid lesions incidentally detected in 14 % of cases. Less than half of all confirmed concomitant thyroid pathology had been referred to or recognised on pre-operative radiology studies. These findings highlight the importance of considering the potential need to perform thyroid surgery during parathyroidectomy and obtaining appropriate informed consent. PMID:24633247

Ryan, S; Courtney, D; Timon, C

2015-02-01

107

Hydrogeologic data for existing excavations and the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada  

SciTech Connect

The Special Projects Section of Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., Inc. is responsible for characterizing the subsurface geology and hydrology of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Waste Management Division. Geologic description, in situ testing, and laboratory analyses of alluvium exposed in existing excavations are important subparts to the Area 5 Site Characterization Program designed to determine the suitability of the RWMS for disposal of low level waste mixed waste and transuranic waste. The primary purpose of the Existing Excavation Project is two-fold: first, to characterize important hydrologic properties of the near surface alluvium, thought to play an important role in the infiltration and redistribution of water and solutes through the upper unsaturated zone at the Area 5 RWMS; and second, to provide guidance for the design of future sampling and testing programs. The justification for this work comes from the state of Nevada review of the original DOE/NV Part B Permit application submitted in 1988 for disposal of mixed wastes at the RWMS. The state of Nevada determined that the permit was deficient in characterization data concerning the hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone. DOE/NV agreed with the state and proposed the study of alluvium exposed in existing excavations as one step toward satisfying these important site characterization data requirements. Other components of the site characterization process include the Science Trench Borehole and Pilot Well Projects.

Not Available

1993-12-01

108

Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

2014-05-01

109

System Integration of NFC Ticketing into an Existing Public Transport Infrastructure  

Microsoft Academic Search

A key application of Near Field Communication (NFC) can be found in the field of Electronic Fare Management. It can radically change existing systems of isolated applications in public transport by providing new approaches for a national or international inter operable fare management. In this paper a scenario for the integration of an electronic ticketing system into an existing public

Rainer Widmann; Stefan Grunberger; Burkhard Stadlmann; Josef Langer

2012-01-01

110

PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &  

E-print Network

on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" #122 0 0 6 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy Technology/speech/2006/ramsay/etp_tokyo.pdf #12;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE G8

111

Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario  

SciTech Connect

Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - KIT, Hermann-von-Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

2013-07-01

112

Scenario-Based Diameter-Bounded Algorithm for Cluster Creation and Management in Mobile Ad hoc Networks  

Microsoft Academic Search

The construction of stable and adaptive clusters providing good performance and faster convergence rate with minimal overhead is a challenging task in Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs). This paper proposes a clustering technique for MANETs, which is distributed, dominating set based, weighted and adaptive to changes in the topology called Distributed Scenario-based Clustering Algorithm for Mobile ad hoc networks (DSCAM).

V. S. Anitha; M. P. Sebastian

2009-01-01

113

A decision support system for water cycle management in new d evelopments: user scenarios for consideration of sustainability imperatives  

Microsoft Academic Search

T he Water Cycle Management for New Developments (WaND) project aims to support the delivery of integrated, sustainable water management for new developments by provision of tools and guidelines for project design, implementation and management. WaND is a research consortium of more than 30 researchers and around 25 professional stakeholders, and deals with the provision of water, stormwater and wastewater

A. Louise Hurley; Stephen R. Mounce; Richard M. Ashley; Daniel Gilmour

114

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities,

Franklin Dexter; Ruth E Wachtel; Richard H Epstein

2011-01-01

115

A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: the case of an Italian urban area.  

PubMed

Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process. PMID:25008299

Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

2014-11-01

116

Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sea level rise (SLR) is a persistent environmental change observed globally for more than a century, and its expected continuation poses significant challenges to the United States (US). We summarize a process associated with the United States National Climate Assessment for identifying four scenarios of global mean sea level rise (SLR). The main finding is that global mean sea level is expected to rise no less than 0.2 meters and no more than 2.0 meters by the end of the century. Recent publications suggest that a 4 C world would result in global mean SLR towards the upper end of that range. Aside from this process, there is currently no coordinated, interagency effort in the US to identify agreed upon global mean sea level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management. This is an important gap because identifying global mean SLR estimates is a critical step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. At present, coastal managers are left to identify global SLR estimates through their own interpretation of the scientific literature or the advice of experts on an ad-hoc basis. Yet, relative SLR at over one hundred tide gages (~80%) along the US coast reflect the global trend (1.7 - 3.2 mm/yr). No widely accepted method is currently available for producing probabilistic projections of SLR at actionable scales (i.e., regional to local). The desire to have a most probable or likely outcome can lead to paralysis or inaction for coastal decision-making. Given the range of uncertainty in future global SLR, scenario planning offers an opportunity to overcome decision-making paralysis and initiate actions now that may reduce future impacts and vulnerabilities. Scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe future potential conditions in a manner that supports decision-making under uncertainty. Using multiple scenarios, none more likely than the other, encourages experts and decision makers to rehearse multiple, plausible futures and to develop multiple response options. Coastal management actions can take anywhere from a few years for alterations to an existing levee to a decade or longer for large-scale, multi-use projects. Given the observed accelerated rate of global SLR in recent decades, it is now critical for the scientific community to help decision makers use scenario planning approaches for coastal adaptation in order to avoid future impacts of sea level rise and its effect on the frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding.

Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

2012-12-01

117

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

118

The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be delivered via the EHP web pages in a user-searchable archive. In addition, we aim to duplicate most of the real-time earthquake event web page functionality for scenario drills and exercises, including all standard post-earthquake information tools. Hence, for each event, USGS PAGER runs will be produced, providing population exposure at current population levels, and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will produce HAZUS impact assessments. Anticipated users include FEMA, the loss modeling and insurance communities, emergency responders and mitigation planners (city, county, state, industry, utilities, corporate), the general public and the media. The Earthquake Scenario Project will also take on several pending scientific challenges related to scenario generation, including ways to include fault directivity, numerical ground motions, and ways to produce ground motion uncertainties (in addition to median peak ground motions). A parallel though less comprehensive effort is underway to produce scenarios for targeted regions and events around the globe.

Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

2009-12-01

119

Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term field trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general circulation models were validated using these field trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year-1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be -4.3 to 18.2 t C ha-1 by 2100. The effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ significantly between climate scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2) was approximately 0.136 t C ha-1 yr-1 in northern China. These findings highlight the need to maintain, and where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming inorganic fertilizer intensive.

Jiang, Guiying; Xu, Minggang; He, Xinhua; Zhang, Wenju; Huang, Shaomin; Yang, Xueyun; Liu, Hua; Peng, Chang; Shirato, Yasuhito; Iizumi, Toshichika; Wang, Jinzhou; Murphy, Daniel V.

2014-03-01

120

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study  

SciTech Connect

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

1990-09-01

121

Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

2013-04-01

122

Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees.  

PubMed

Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced. PMID:24090497

López-Moreno, J I; Zabalza, J; Vicente-Serrano, S M; Revuelto, J; Gilaberte, M; Azorin-Molina, C; Morán-Tejeda, E; García-Ruiz, J M; Tague, C

2014-09-15

123

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-07-01

124

Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system  

Microsoft Academic Search

Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an

A. R. Maffei; C. L. Chandler; T. Work; J. Allen; R. C. Groman; P. A. Fox

2009-01-01

125

Use of primary corticosteroid injection in the management of plantar fasciopathy: is it time to challenge existing practice?  

PubMed

Plantar fasciopathy (PF) is characterized by degeneration of the fascia at the calcaneal enthesis. It is a common cause of foot pain, accounting for 90% of clinical presentations of heel pathology. In 2009-2010, 9.3 million working days were lost in England due to musculoskeletal disorders, with 2.4 million of those attributable to lower-limb disorders, averaging 16.3 lost working days per case. Numerous studies have attempted to establish the short- and long-term clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections in the management of PF. Earlier studies have not informed clinical practice. As the research base has developed, evidence has emerged supporting clinical efficacy. With diverse opinions surrounding the etiology and efficacy debate, there does not seem to be a consensus of opinion on a common treatment pathway. For example, in England, the National Institute for Clinical Health and Excellence does not publish strategic guidance for clinical practice. Herein, we review and evaluate core literature that examines the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injection as a treatment for PF. Outcome measures were wide ranging but largely yielded results supportive of the short- and long-term benefits of this modality. The analysis also looked to establish, where possible, "proof of concept." This article provides evidence supporting the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections, in particular those guided by imaging technology. The evidence challenges existing orthodoxy, which marginalizes this treatment as a secondary option. This challenge is supported by recently revised guidelines published by the American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons advocating corticosteroid injection as a primary treatment option. PMID:24072372

Kirkland, Paul; Beeson, Paul

2013-01-01

126

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

127

Economic and ecological implications of alternative brush management and restoration scenarios designed to improve water yield in two Texas watersheds  

E-print Network

. Costs of additional water are lower for sub-basins within the Edwards study area (ranging from $32 to $70 per acre-foot of water added) than in the Twin Buttes (ranging from $63 to $218 per acre-foot), meaning that brush management efforts are more...

Olenick, Keith Layne

2002-01-01

128

Climate Change Adaptation in the U.K. Water Industry: Managers' Perceptions of Past Variability and Future Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply\\/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier

Susan Subak

2000-01-01

129

Artificial neural networks applied to flow prediction scenarios in Tomebamba River - Paute watershed, for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The main aim of this research is to create a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that allows predicting the flow in Tomebamba River both, at real time and in a certain day of year. As inputs we are using information of rainfall and flow of the stations along of the river. This information is organized in scenarios and each scenario is prepared to a specific area. The information is acquired from the hydrological stations placed in the watershed using an electronic system developed at real time and it supports any kind or brands of this type of sensors. The prediction works very good three days in advance This research includes two ANN models: Back propagation and a hybrid model between back propagation and OWO-HWO. These last two models have been tested in a preliminary research. To validate the results we are using some error indicators such as: MSE, RMSE, EF, CD and BIAS. The results of this research reached high levels of reliability and the level of error are minimal. These predictions are useful for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

Cisneros, Felipe; Veintimilla, Jaime

2013-04-01

130

Refinement and Management Recommendations of Mobile Phones The questionnaire below deals with features that currently exist in the mobile phones domain (not  

E-print Network

Refinement and Management Recommendations of Mobile Phones The questionnaire below deals with features that currently exist in the mobile phones domain (not necessarily smart phones). After providing of familiarity with the mobile phones domain: (a) Work in the field (Operation/Development), (b) Work

Reinhartz-Berger, Iris

131

Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Freeman, W. [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Chemistry

1994-03-01

132

Identifying Methods Nurse Managers Can Implement to Foster a Supportive Environment for Staff Where Disruptive Behavior Exists  

Microsoft Academic Search

We can all imagine the ideal work environment, where you are respected, empowered, and provided with the resources to perform to the best of your ability everyday. Your skills would be acknowledged and the challenging work that is accomplished each day would be appreciated by peers, team members, and managers. However, in my work environment, an operating room, a phenomenon

KATHLEEN S. LEAVITT

2007-01-01

133

Charting the existence and approaches to management of the tattooing and body piercing industry — a historical overview  

Microsoft Academic Search

Tattooing and body piercing as ancient body arts have existed throughout the centuries. Wholly human phenomena, they are activities that have human phenomena, they are activities that have been practised in almost all cultures at one time or another (Caplan, 2000) and continue and grow in popularity in modern day Western societies (Camphausen, 1997; Rush 2005).The first of a three-part

Claire Chalmers

2009-01-01

134

Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland  

PubMed Central

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

135

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.  

PubMed

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

136

A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

2014-05-01

137

Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

2013-12-01

138

Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley  

Microsoft Academic Search

Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality man- agement. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole method- ology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The

J.-L. Ponche; J.-F. Vinuesa

2005-01-01

139

Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

140

Scenarios and task analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A Critical Review of Carroll's book on scenario-based design is offered [Making Use: Scenario-Based Design of Human–Computer Interactions (2000)]. Carroll characterises scenarios as ‘stories about use’. The paper demonstrates that Carroll's proposals about scenarios and their use in software engineering can be fitted into the broader framework of task analysis in Human–Computer Interaction.

Dan Diaper

2002-01-01

141

Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver  

SciTech Connect

This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.

Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab

2008-07-01

142

Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

2012-01-01

143

Scenarios: Heuristics for action  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper present a heuristic model to ease scenario construction and usage in interaction design processes. We argue that the role of scenarios varies: I) along the design process, thus scenario building and usage have to be attuned to the particular goal of the design phase; II) in respect to the people that will use them (e.g., design team, client,

Antonio Rizzo; Margherita Bacigalupo

2004-01-01

144

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 1 June 1998 Systems Analysis research programme (tenta- tively titled: Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development). The tentative. This newsletter presents the status on the Risø initiative on technology forecasting and scenario development

145

Simulated effects of ground-water management scenarios on the Santa Fe group aquifer system, Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico, 2001-40  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Future conditions in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system through 2040 were simulated using the most recent revision of the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater- flow model for the Middle Rio Grande Basin. Three simulations were performed to investigate the likely effects of different scenarios of future groundwater pumping by the City of Albuquerque on the ground-water system. For simulation I, pumping was held constant at known year-2000 rates. For simulation II, pumping was increased to simulate the use of pumping to meet all projected city water demand through 2040. For simulation III, pumpingwas reduced in accordance with a plan by the City of Albuquerque to use surfacewater to meet most of the projectedwater demand. The simulations indicate that for each of the three pumping scenarios, substantial additional watertable declines would occur in some areas of the basin through 2040. However, the reduced pumping scenario of simulation III also results in water-table rise over a broad area of the city. All three scenarios indicate that the contributions of aquifer storage and river leakage to the ground-water system would change between 2000 and 2040. Comparisons among the results for simulations I, II, and III indicate that the various pumping scenarios have substantially different effects on water-level declines in the Albuquerque area and on the contribution of each water-budget component to the total budget for the ground-water system. Between 2000 and 2040, water-level declines for continued pumping at year-2000 rates are as much as 120 feet greater than for reduced pumping; water-level declines for increased pumping to meet all projected city demand are as much as 160 feet greater. Over the same time period, reduced pumping results in retention in aquifer storage of about 1,536,000 acre-feet of ground water as compared with continued pumping at year- 2000 rates and of about 2,257,000 acre-feet as compared with increased pumping. The quantity of water retained in the Rio Grande as a result of reduced pumping and the associated decrease in induced recharge from the river is about 731,000 acre-feet as compared with continued pumping at year-2000 rates and about 872,000 acre-feet as compared with increased pumping. Reduced pumping results in slight increases in the quantity of water lost from the groundwater system to evapotranspiration and agriculturaldrain flow compared with the other pumping scenarios.

Bexfield, Laura M.; McAda, Douglas P.

2003-01-01

146

Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management  

PubMed Central

The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”. PMID:23894298

Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C.; Hull, Angela D.; Sanderson, William G.

2013-01-01

147

Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

2000-01-01

148

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

2013-11-15

149

Dome It Challenge Scenario Cards  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Student teams find solutions to hypothetical challenge scenarios that require them to sustainably manage both resources and wastes. They begin by creating a card representing themselves and the resources (inputs) they need and wastes (outputs) they produce. Then they incorporate additional cards for food and energy components and associated necessary resources and waste products. They draw connections between outputs that provide inputs for other needs, and explore the problem of using linear solutions in resource-limited environments. Then students incorporate cards based on biorecycling technologies, such as algae photobioreactors and anaerobic digesters in order to make circular connections. Finally, the student teams present their complete biorecycling engineering solutions to their scenarios—in poster format—by connecting outputs to inputs, and showing the cycles of how wastes become resources.

Membrane Biotechnology Laboratory, College of Engineering,

150

Curvature Inspired Cosmological Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Using modified gravity with non-linear terms of curvature, R 2 and R (2+ r) (with r being a positive real number and R being the scalar curvature), cosmological scenario, beginning at the Planck scale, is obtained. Here a unified picture of cosmology is obtained from f( R)- gravity. In this scenario, universe begins with power-law inflation followed by deceleration and

S. K. Srivastava

2008-01-01

151

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis allocated to the Technology Forecasting and Scenario Develop- ment programme (marked (*) ) in the following development of theories and methodologies for Technology Foresight in a Danish context. 1 The research

152

Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

Cherry, Gregory S.

2006-01-01

153

Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites  

SciTech Connect

Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Boice, D.C.

1986-04-01

154

Enhancing business and technology foresight with electronically mediated scenario process  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The study discusses existing scenario methods in business and technology foresight and introduces electronically mediated scenario process in two varieties. The purpose of the study is to discuss the existing practice, position the IDEAS and SAGES methods, and outline their contribution to the state of the art. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The paper takes the form of a literature study

Kalle Piirainen; Antti Lindqvist

2010-01-01

155

The Composite Twin Higgs scenario  

E-print Network

Based on an explicit model, we propose and discuss the generic features of a possible implementation of the Twin Higgs program in the context of composite Higgs models. We find that the Twin Higgs quadratic divergence cancellation argument can be uplifted to a genuine protection of the Higgs potential, based on symmetries and selection rules, but only under certain conditions which are not fulfilled in some of the existing models. We also find that a viable scenario, not plagued by a massless Twin Photon, can be obtained by not gauging the Twin Hypercharge and taking this as the only source of Twin Symmetry breaking at a very high scale.

Barbieri, Riccardo; Rattazzi, Riccardo; Wulzer, Andrea

2015-01-01

156

The Composite Twin Higgs scenario  

E-print Network

Based on an explicit model, we propose and discuss the generic features of a possible implementation of the Twin Higgs program in the context of composite Higgs models. We find that the Twin Higgs quadratic divergence cancellation argument can be uplifted to a genuine protection of the Higgs potential, based on symmetries and selection rules, but only under certain conditions which are not fulfilled in some of the existing models. We also find that a viable scenario, not plagued by a massless Twin Photon, can be obtained by not gauging the Twin Hypercharge and taking this as the only source of Twin Symmetry breaking at a very high scale.

Riccardo Barbieri; Davide Greco; Riccardo Rattazzi; Andrea Wulzer

2015-01-30

157

Neutrino mixing scenarios and AGN  

E-print Network

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) have been suggested to be sources of very high energy neutrinos. We consider the possibility of using AGN neutrinos to test neutrino mixings. From the atmospheric, solar and laboratory data on neutrino oscillations we derive the flavour composition of the AGN neutrino flux in different neutrino mixing schemes. We show that most of the schemes considered can be distinguished from each other and the existence of a sterile neutrino can be specially tested. AGN neutrinos can also be used to test those four-neutrino scenarios where solar neutrinos oscillate into an arbitrary mixture of $\

Luis Bento; Petteri Keränen; Jukka Maalampi

2000-02-01

158

POEMS: A Transformable Architecture for Managing System Overload  

Microsoft Academic Search

In a typical organizational scenario, hundreds of personal computers (PCs) are used mainly for simple office tasks. Typically, a central database management system (DBMS) receives requests internally or externally through an Internet connection that serves as a backend of Web services. The unpredictability and fluctuations of requests could result in the overload of the DBMS. Existing load management systems assume

Wee Siong Ng; Panos Kalnis; Beng Chin Ooi; Kian-Lee Tan

159

The effect of high-fidelity simulation on the confidence and decision-making ability of anaesthesia trainees in managing subsequent simulated 'can't intubate, can't oxygenate' scenarios.  

PubMed

The decision to attempt a percutaneous airway in a recognised 'Can't Intubate, Can't Oxygenate' (CICO) situation may occur too late to avoid a poor outcome. Our study was designed to investigate the effect of high-fidelity simulation on the confidence and decision-making ability of anaesthesia trainees in managing CICO scenarios in subsequent simulation. Nine anaesthesia trainees from Logan Hospital participated. Pre-study questionnaires surveying confidence levels in various anaesthetic crises were completed. All participants underwent an education session based on algorithms developed for failed intubation and ventilation, and techniques for securing percutaneous airway access. However, only four of the nine participated in a high-fidelity simulation session. All nine participants were then filmed during 'mini-simulation' assessment sessions and completed post-study questionnaires identical to those at the commencement of the study. The four trainees who had undertaken the initial high-fidelity simulation had a lower median time to laryngeal mask airway attempt (60 versus 115 seconds) and time to percutaneous airway attempt (111 versus 172 seconds) in the subsequent simulation. The median number of deviations from the Difficult Airway Society algorithm was 0 for the simulation group compared to 1 for the non-simulation group. This small study suggests that high-fidelity simulation shortens the decision-making time of anaesthesia trainees in subsequent simulated CICO scenarios. This observation warrants follow-up in larger prospective trials. PMID:24580386

McCrossin, K E; White, H T; Sane, S

2014-03-01

160

COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF  

E-print Network

: · Two additional energy efficiency scenarios. · Carbon adder impact on coal plant dispatch. · Resource, generation costs, production costs, transmission, Western Interconnection, sensitivity assessment. v #12................................................. 3 Production Cost Model Results

161

Sensitivity and Scenario Results  

E-print Network

Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

Yu, Winston

162

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

2013-09-24

163

Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.  

PubMed

Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

2013-11-01

164

Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

2004-01-01

165

Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through to eventual disposal. By varying the specifications of the deployment scenario, the simulated annealing algorithm will seek to either minimize the value of a single objective function, or enumerate the trade-off surface between multiple competing objective functions. The available objective functions represent key stakeholder values, minimizing such important factors as high-level waste disposal burden, required uranium ore supply, relative proliferation potential, and economic cost and uncertainty. The optimization program itself is designed to be modular, allowing for continued expansion and exploration as research needs and curiosity indicate. The utility and functionality of this optimization program are demonstrated through its application to one potential fuel cycle scenario of interest. In this scenario, an existing legacy LWR fleet is assumed at the year 2000. The electric power demand grows exponentially at a rate of 1.8% per year through the year 2100. Initially, new demand is met by the construction of 1-GW(e) LWRs. However, beginning in the year 2040, 600-MW(e) sodium-cooled, fast-spectrum reactors operating in a transuranic burning regime with full recycling of spent fuel become available to meet demand. By varying the fraction of new capacity allocated to each reactor type, the optimization program is able to explicitly show the relationships that exist between uranium utilization, long-term heat for geologic disposal, and cost-of-electricity objective functions. The trends associated with these trade-off surfaces tend to confirm many common expectations about the use of nuclear power, namely that while overall it is quite insensitive to variations in the cost of uranium ore, it is quite sensitive to changes in the capital costs of facilities. The optimization algorithm has shown itself to be robust and extensible, with possible extensions to many further fuel cycle optimization problems of interest.

Hays, Ross Daniel

166

Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios project was carried out in the EU 5th framework programme in the field of nuclear safety during years 2000–2002. The first objective of the project was to generate a comprehensive database on fission product retention in a steam generator. The second objective was to verify and develop predictive models to support accident management

A. Auvinen; J. K. Jokiniemi; A. Lähde; T. Routamo; P. Lundström; H. Tuomisto; J. Dienstbier; S. Güntay; D. Suckow; A. Dehbi; M. Slootman; L. Herranz; V. Peyres; J. Polo

2005-01-01

167

Testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB).  

PubMed

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. PMID:24414807

Lindegarth, Mats; Bergström, Ulf; Mattila, Johanna; Olenin, Sergej; Ollikainen, Markku; Downie, Anna-Leena; Sundblad, Göran; Bu?as, Martynas; Gullström, Martin; Snickars, Martin; von Numers, Mikael; Svensson, J Robin; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa

2014-02-01

168

IPCC SCENARIO DATA  

EPA Science Inventory

This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...

169

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

170

Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios  

E-print Network

...................................................................................................... 20 4.3 FORESIGHT SCENARIOS............................................................. 30 4.6 AEA TECHNOLOGY AND ICCEPT

Watson, Andrew

171

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

2011-01-01

172

SAPPHIRE: scenarios, architecture, and process.  

PubMed

General Medical Practice (GMP) information systems within the UK are becoming more sophisticated and more complex and are widely available from numerous suppliers. Although such systems are viewed as being important, they are problematic in terms of interpreting and assessing their usefulness, and their impact upon work and the organisation (G. Walsham, Interpreting Information Systems in Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1993)). In particular, it is difficult for any who have an interest in these systems to apply existing technical specifications to a specific situation, and to match individual requirements with the supplier's products. The research project SAPPHIRE seeks to inform the decision making of stakeholders, e.g. GPs, facilitators and suppliers, with respect to procurement, update, design and supply of GMP systems by developing the means of evaluating such systems, and by facilitating an accreditation process through that evaluation. This extended paper introduces the multi-faceted approach, scenarios, architecture and process of SAPPHIRE. PMID:7956163

Kay, S; Redman, R; McWilliams, A; Bradley, P; Daniels, A

1994-06-01

173

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake  

E-print Network

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;iv Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake

Wilcock, William

174

Tele-Existence Tele-Existence  

E-print Network

Tele-Existence Review: Tele-Existence Susumu Tachi Research Center for Advanced Science science. All of these are based on measurement and control technology, electronic!;, communication and Mechatronics Vo1.4 No.l, 1992 #12;Tachi, S. ferent point of view. It represents a new concept that allows

Tachi, Susumu

175

Face tracking in meeting room scenarios using omnidirectional views  

Microsoft Academic Search

The robust localization and tracking of faces in video streams is a fundamental concern for many subsequent multi-modal recognition approaches. Especially in meeting scenarios several independent processing queues often exist that use the position and gaze of faces, such as group action- and face recognizers. The costs for multiple camera recordings of meeting scenarios are obviously higher compared to those

Frank Wallhoff; Martin Zobl; Gerhard Rigoll; Igor Potucek

2004-01-01

176

Charlie's Gumballs Scenario Video  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page from the Math Forum blog of Suzanne Alejandre links to a one-minute video during which Max Ray acts out the "Charlie's Gumball" Problem of the Week. The page includes links to PDFs of the scenario, the PoW Packet with the solution and teaching suggestions, a scoring rubric and the "Notice/Wonder" strategy handout that can be used to introduce the problem.

Alejandre, Suzanne

2012-04-06

177

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

178

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

179

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building  

SciTech Connect

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-07-09

180

The Influence of Climate Science on Water Management in Western Australia: Lessons for Climate Scientists  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water flow into dams that supply Perth in Western Australia (WA) has fallen by 50% since the mid-1970s, and this has severely tested water managers. Climate change scenarios available since the 1980s have suggested that global warming will reduce rainfall over southern Australia, including Perth. Water managers recognize the uncertainties associated with the projections, including the significant differences that exist

Scott Power; Brian Sadler; Neville Nicholls

2005-01-01

181

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

2014-02-01

182

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

183

Streamlining workflow using existing technology.  

PubMed

Processing rehabilitation admissions and case management records in a three-person office in a major academic medical center had become cumbersome and redundant due to multiple information management approaches and requirements from various sources. Simple questionnaires and brief, casual meetings with pertinent personnel defined what was working well and what was problematic and helped establish a foundation for change management. Analysis of the existing paper system revealed more than 300 data items used more than once throughout the departmental processes. A simple timing trial, based on selected segments of a workflow diagram, revealed the potential to save 3 to 3(1/2) hours per case by revising a departmental database, decreasing work redundancy, and creating an electronic case file. Because the work environment utilized Microsoft Office and Access databases, a plan was developed to utilize these resources to streamline the workflow and eliminate duplication of effort in the admission/case management documentation processes. PMID:18000432

Corkery, Terry S

2007-01-01

184

EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL  

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

185

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios  

SciTech Connect

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-12-31

186

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.  

PubMed Central

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

187

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling  

Microsoft Academic Search

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a

Jeroen Keppens; Burkhard Schafer

2006-01-01

188

Curvature Inspired Cosmological Scenario  

E-print Network

Using modified gravity with non-linear terms of curvature, $R^2$ and $R^{(r +2)}$ (with $r$ being the positive real number and $R$ being the scalar curvature), cosmological scenario,beginning at the Planck scale, is obtained. Here, a unified picture of cosmology is obtained from $f(R)-$ gravity. In this scenario, universe begins with power-law inflation, followed by deceleration and acceleration in the late universe as well as possible collapse of the universe in future. It is different from $f(R)-$ dark energy models with non-linear curvature terms assumed as dark energy. Here, dark energy terms are induced by linear as well as non-linear terms of curvature in Friedmann equation being derived from modified gravity.It is also interesting to see that, in this model, dark radiation and dark matter terms emerge spontaneously from the gravitational sector. It is found that dark energy, obtained here, behaves as quintessence in the early universe and phantom in the late universe. Moreover, analogous to brane-tension in brane-gravity inspired Friedmann equation, a tension term $\\lambda$ arises here being called as cosmic tension. It is found that, in the late universe, Friedmann equation (obtained here) contains a term $- \\rho^2/2\\lambda$ ($\\rho$ being the phantom energy density) analogous to a similar term in Friedmann equation with loop quantum effects, if $\\lambda > 0$ and brane-gravity correction when $\\lambda < 0.$

S. K. Srivastava

2007-06-04

189

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description  

SciTech Connect

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

190

Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

2004-01-01

191

Scenario-Based Tasks  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page from The Experiential Learning Center provides a number of scenario-based tasks for use in the classroom or for professional development training. The materials are freely available for download and use and would be applicable to learners in a variety of subjects including software development, faculty professional development, office system applications/ICT, biology/bioinformatics, environmental studies, Python programming, engineering, network security/MIS, computational thinking and English writing. Instructor guides and other classroom instructional materials are provided. The project requests that educators let them know when these materials are used in order to track dissemination of the work and in order to inform the community about upcoming workshops and presentations.

2012-10-09

192

Robotic tele-existence  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.

Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro

1989-01-01

193

Integrating Sustainable Development into Existing Management Systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Organizations are under increasing pressure from both outside and within to apply the principles of sustainable development to their operations. Although a variety of initiatives have been undertaken, many organizations have struggled with the implementation of the concept in practice. This paper addresses this issue by providing a framework for the integration of sustainable development into mainstream business systems. The

Miguel Rocha; Cory Searcy; Stanislav Karapetrovic

2007-01-01

194

Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.  

SciTech Connect

In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

Darby, John L.

2007-03-01

195

Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

2012-12-01

196

Mission Scenario Development Workbench  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

2006-01-01

197

Commissioning Existing Buildings: A Program Perspective  

E-print Network

Since September 2002, the Oakland Energy Partnership's Large Commercial Building Tune-Up Program has recruited managers and operators of existing large commercial buildings in the City of Oakland for program participation. The Tune-Up Program...

Jump, D.; Rosillo, A.; Tahir, A.

2003-01-01

198

ARCADE - abstraction and realization of complex event scenarios using dynamic rule creation  

Microsoft Academic Search

This system capitalizes on the fact that the complex event scenarios in an industry are repetitive in nature. It abstracts these scenarios into reusable templates with configurable parameters. This is an advantage that the system brings over the existing Complex Event Processing tools. These tools provide the capability of defining complex event scenarios but not the ability to reuse them.

Ashish A. Kulkarni

2011-01-01

199

Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the Great Lakes simulation model was computationally demanding, the model pre-emption strategy was also utilized in conjunction with DDS to reduce the computational burden. The system with the existing two control structures managed by the current regulation plans was considered as a baseline (base case) of assessment. Simulation results demonstrate that the regulation plans developed can substantially reduce the frequency of extreme water levels and reduce the magnitude of extreme violations in multiple extreme water supply scenarios across the system relative to the base case regulation strategy. The regulation plan was also shown to be robust against other unseen extreme future climate scenarios. Moreover, the system simulation results under various future climate scenarios suggest that even the system controlled by four structures might be unable to fully mitigate the negative impacts associated with extreme water levels.

Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

2011-12-01

200

Futures Scenario in Science Learning  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

201

Robert Collins Data Association Scenarios  

E-print Network

CSE598G Robert Collins Outline · Data Association Scenarios · Track Filtering and Gating · Global) #12;CSE598G Robert Collins Data Association Scenarios Two-frame Matching (Correspondence Problem) e.g. corners, Sift keys, image patches Matching features across frames #12;CSE598G Robert Collins Data

Collins, Robert T.

202

Robert Collins Data Association Scenarios  

E-print Network

CSE598C Robert Collins Outline · Data Association Scenarios · Track Filtering and Gating · Global) · Markov Chain Monte Carlo DA (MCMCDA) TODAY #12;CSE598C Robert Collins Multi Target Tracking (MTT harder to solve. #12;CSE598C Robert Collins Recall: Data Assoc Scenario Multi-frame Matching (matching

Collins, Robert T.

203

Robert Collins Data Association Scenarios  

E-print Network

1 CSE598G Robert Collins Outline · Data Association Scenarios · Track Filtering and Gating · Global) CSE598G Robert Collins Data Association Scenarios Two-frame Matching (Correspondence Problem) e.g. corners, Sift keys, image patches Matching features across frames CSE598G Robert Collins Data Association

Collins, Robert T.

204

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios  

E-print Network

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels

205

Embedding Scenarios in Ambient Trac  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we present an approach to embedding scenarios in ambient trac through the use of on-line casting, wherein vehicles are dynamically assigned scenario roles during simulation. We present a model of a scene as an abstraction that encapsulates the actions of principal role players, the background activity, and the setting in which it is to take place. We

Olivier Alloyer; Esmail Bonakdarian; James Cremer; Joseph Kearney; Peter Willemsen

1997-01-01

206

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

207

Is there a uniform approach to the management of diffuse parenchymal lung disease (DPLD) in the UK? A national benchmarking exercise  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: Benchmarking is the comparison of a process to the work or results of others. We conducted a national benchmarking exercise to determine how UK pulmonologists manage common clinical scenarios in diffuse parenchymal lung disease (DPLD), and to determine current use and availability of investigative resources. We compared management decisions to existing international guidelines. METHODS: Consultant members of the British

Patricia Macedo; Robina K Coker; Martyn R Partridge

2007-01-01

208

Usability standards meet scenario-based design: Challenges and opportunities.  

PubMed

The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

2014-11-25

209

Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

2014-10-01

210

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

211

Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

1992-01-01

212

Do cement nanotubes exist?  

PubMed

Using atomistic simulations, this work indicates that cement nanotubes can exist. The chemically compatible nanotubes are constructed from the two main minerals in ordinary Portland cement pastes, namely calcium hydroxide and a calcium silicate hydrate called tobermorite. These results show that such nanotubes are stable and have outstanding mechanical properties, unique characteristics that make them ideally suitable for nanoscale reinforcements of cements. PMID:22589176

Manzano, H; Enyashin, A N; Dolado, J S; Ayuela, A; Frenzel, J; Seifert, G

2012-06-26

213

Peano's Existence Theorem revisited  

E-print Network

We present new proofs to four versions of Peano's Existence Theorem for ordinary differential equations and systems. We hope to have gained readability with respect to other usual proofs. We also intend to highlight some ideas due to Peano which are still being used today but in specialized contexts: it appears that the lower and upper solutions method has one of its oldest roots in Peano's paper of 1886.

Pouso, Rodrigo López

2012-01-01

214

Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

1992-01-01

215

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

216

Enhancing business and technology foresight with electronically mediated scenario process  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent turmoil in the world has brought an interest toward creating business and technology foresight to understand the fundamental changes in business, as well as in the environment, society and technology. Especially technology management in changing markets has to deal with long lead times and high sunken costs, and hence handling the risk requires strategic agility and foresight. Scenarios, as

Kalle Piirainen; Antti Lindqvist

2009-01-01

217

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Sullivan, John

2014-03-14

218

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

DOE Data Explorer

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Sullivan, John

219

Environmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment  

E-print Network

Environmental assessment of electricity scenarios with Life Cycle Assessment Touria Larbi1 been assessed with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies [1], [2], [3] and [4]. However environmental.blanc@mines-paristech.fr 1. Introduction The environmental impacts of existing electricity generation systems have already

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

220

MODELLING LONG RUN SCENARIOS: METHODOLOGY  

E-print Network

MODELLING LONG RUN SCENARIOS: METHODOLOGY LESSONS FROM A PROSPECTIVE STUDY ON A LOW CO2 INTENSIVE. More generally, it points out the importance of possible bifurcation effects, and draws methodological some methodological pro- gress and no doubt it will be brought by on-going works. I would like to elabo

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

221

Future Scenarios and Environmental Education  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

Kopnina, Helen

2014-01-01

222

Scenario analysis for combat systems  

SciTech Connect

Under the current environment of budget cuts and force reductions, the U.S. Army must determine the resources required to ensure the ability to deal with contingencies throughout the world. Scenario analysis employs an optimization routine to determine the forces required to defeat several specified threats in diverse geographical locations. Uncertainty is assumed and exhibited by assigning probabilities to a finite set of events (scenarios). The optimization routine is a linear program that is executed for each potential event The results identify the forces required to achieve success in each scenario, and includes the resource implications to procure, maintain, and staff the force. The technique has been employed in several studies, mainly to develop up to an armor brigade, using results from approved computer combat models. The results of a study to develop a force to conduct several early entry operations will be presented. For this study, over 20 different combat systems were included in the trade-offs to develop the force necessary to achieve success in three contingencies. Overall scenario analysis shows a substantial capability in providing a fast tool to gain insights in developing a robust threat-based force.

Laferriere, R.

1994-12-31

223

Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.  

SciTech Connect

Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

Weiner, Ruth F.

2010-09-01

224

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality  

E-print Network

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios and backtracking. It also

Krishnamurthi, Shriram

225

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality  

E-print Network

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J. We present Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios

Dougherty, Daniel J.

226

Genomics and society: four scenarios for 2015  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper develops four alternative scenarios depicting possible futures for genomics applications within a broader social context. The scenarios integrate forecasts for future genomics applications with key drivers that are shaping genomics. Each scenario is a narrative depiction of an alternative path towards four very different futures for genomics. The scenarios are intended to give the user the a framework

Mark Justman; Clement Bezold; William R. Rowley

2002-01-01

227

THE METHODOLOGICAL BASIS FOR LOW CARBON SCENARIOS  

E-print Network

scenario literature which pre-dates the use of the concept for considering low-carbon futures. Since1 THE METHODOLOGICAL BASIS FOR LOW CARBON SCENARIOS ­ LESSONS FROM THE WIDER POST-WAR SCENARIO for the specific purpose of informing the ongoing development of energy and low carbon scenarios. The aim

228

A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands  

PubMed Central

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, ‘Decision robustness’ and ‘Learning success’, we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

2012-01-01

229

Development of the ITER baseline inductive scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sustainment of Q ˜ 10 operation with a fusion power of ˜500 MW for several hundred seconds is a key mission goal of the ITER Project. Past calculations and simulations predict that these conditions can be produced in high-confinement mode operation (H-mode) at 15 MA relying on only inductive current drive. Earlier development of 15 MA baseline inductive plasma scenarios provided a focal point for the ITER Design Review conducted in 2007-2008. In the intervening period, detailed predictive simulations, supported by experimental demonstrations in existing tokamaks, allow us to assemble an end-to-end specification of this scenario consistent with the final design of the ITER device. Simulations have encompassed plasma initiation, current ramp-up, plasma burn and current ramp-down, and have included density profiles and thermal transport models producing temperature profiles consistent with edge pedestal conditions present in current fusion experiments. These quasi-stationary conditions are maintained due to the presence of edge-localized modes that limit the edge pressure. High temperatures and densities in the pedestal region produce significant edge bootstrap current that must be considered in modelling of feedback control of shape and vertical stability. In this paper we present new results of transport simulations fully consistent with the final ITER design that remain within allowed limits for the coil system and power supplies. These self-consistent simulations increase our confidence in meeting the challenges of the ITER program.

Casper, T.; Gribov, Y.; Kavin, A.; Lukash, V.; Khayrutdinov, R.; Fujieda, H.; Kessel, C.; pre="for the"> ITER Organization,

2014-01-01

230

Autophagic cell death exists  

PubMed Central

The term autophagic cell death (ACD) initially referred to cell death with greatly enhanced autophagy, but is increasingly used to imply a death-mediating role of autophagy, as shown by a protective effect of autophagy inhibition. In addition, many authors require that autophagic cell death must not involve apoptosis or necrosis. Adopting these new and restrictive criteria, and emphasizing their own failure to protect human osteosarcoma cells by autophagy inhibition, the authors of a recent Editor’s Corner article in this journal argued for the extreme rarity or nonexistence of autophagic cell death. We here maintain that, even with the more stringent recent criteria, autophagic cell death exists in several situations, some of which were ignored by the Editor’s Corner authors. We reject their additional criterion that the autophagy in ACD must be the agent of ultimate cell dismantlement. And we argue that rapidly dividing mammalian cells such as cancer cells are not the most likely situation for finding pure ACD. PMID:22652592

Clarke, Peter G.H.; Puyal, Julien

2012-01-01

231

Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing  

PubMed Central

Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease. PMID:18558006

Contractor, Kaiyumars B; Kaur, Kanchan; Rodrigues, Gabriel S; Kulkarni, Dhananjay M; Singhal, Hemant

2008-01-01

232

Thermodynamic laws in interacting dark energy scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We discuss the laws of thermodynamics in interacting dark energy scenario. Entropy of the universe is calculated assuming that universe is a closed system. The components of the tachyonic scalar field in the universe are taken to exist in the state of non-equilibrium initially, but due to interaction they undergo a transition towards the equilibrium state. We show that the zeroth law of thermodynamics demands interaction among the components of cosmic field. During such interaction the second law of thermodynamics is governing dynamics in transfer of energy among the three components of the proposed field with local violation of conservation of energy for individual components. It is further shown that, in our proposed mechanism, the interaction itself generates an increase of entropy in an evolving universe and thus it might indicate a possible solution to the well-known entropy problem.

Pathak, Shankar Dayal; Verma, Murli

233

A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity  

PubMed Central

I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

Leggett, A. J.

1999-01-01

234

Do magnetars really exist?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We perform a comparative analysis of the properties of isolated single neutron stars and show the absence of any single typical feature providing unambiguous evidence that they belong to the classes of AXPs or SGRs. Several objects with features intermediate between AXPs and radio transients (RRATs) have been discovered recently: radio pulsars with high magnetic fields, radio-emitting AXPs, etc. Assuming the existence of fields of 1016 G in the stellar interiors cannot explain the giant gamma-ray outbursts of SGRs. It appears necessary to invoke other energy sources, such as nuclear reactions in the matter that breaks through the crust of the neutron star. For the recently discovered AXP PSR J1642-4950, we find that the angle ? between its spin axis and magnetic moment is 15.6°. This agrees with earlier estimates for the AXPs J1810-197 and 1E 1547.0-5408, which have ? < 10°. The similarity of these objects to aligned rotators enables a description using the drift model. This model yields a rotational period for PSR J1642-4950 of P = 0.32 s, amagnetic field in the radiation generation region of B = 950 G, and a surfacemagnetic field of B s = 3.39×1012 G. It is shown that the cyclotron instability in the neighbourhood proximity of the light cylinder, associated with particles in the tail of the secondary-plasma distribution, can explain the generation of the radio emission of PSR J1642-4950, which should be observed predominantly at low frequencies (˜100 MHz).

Malov, I. F.

2012-01-01

235

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2012-01-01

236

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2011-01-01

237

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2010-07-01

238

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2013-07-01

239

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2014-01-01

240

IDEOLOGY AND EXISTENCE OF 50%-MAJORITY EQUILIBRIA IN MULTIDIMENSIONAL SPATIAL  

E-print Network

IDEOLOGY AND EXISTENCE OF 50%-MAJORITY EQUILIBRIA IN MULTIDIMENSIONAL SPATIAL VOTING MODELS Herve. These d `ideological' dimensions imply some linkages between the n political issues. We randomize over-case scenario, when n grows to infinity. Moreover, the equilibrium is the mean voter. KEY WORDS . ideology

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

241

Inappropriate referrals at the end of life--the existing Indian scenario.  

PubMed

The Economist Intelligence Unit has ranked India's end-of-life care last out of 40 countries. The lack of orientation towards palliative care, poor communication skills, a disease-focused, curative approach and the unending battle against death-all lead to unrealistic hope in patients and their families. Inappropriate referrals at the end of life are common and result in a lot of avoidable suffering for both the patients and their families. Propagation of clear guidelines to limit inappropriate therapeutic interventions and referrals in patients with limited prognosis is the need of the hour. Awareness, sensitization, education and training in palliative care are urgently required to change attitudes. This would go a long way in mitigating the misery for both the dying and their carers. PMID:24664357

Butola, Savita

2014-08-01

242

Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.

Dengler, L.

2006-12-01

243

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs  

SciTech Connect

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-09-19

244

Report on Scenario Development and Analysis  

E-print Network

Report on Scenario Development and Analysis Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Office, Development and Analysis Methodology Delivered to: Richard Rocheleau, Director Hawai`i Natural Energy.........................................................................................................5 Methodology of Scenario Analysis

245

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

SciTech Connect

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2006-12-15

246

Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent  

PubMed Central

The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

Nishant; Kumari, Renu

2014-01-01

247

Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

248

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS  

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

249

Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems  

E-print Network

Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems Summary report C R U #12;#12;1 Alternative Futures for Marine Ecosystems contents Introduction to the AFMEC project 4 Outline of the scenarios 6 How. In this report a set of four distinct Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems (AFMEC) `futures' detail

250

Five Reasons for Scenario-based Design  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of human-computer interaction help us to understand and to create computer systems and applications as artifacts of human activity Ñas things to learn from, as tools to use in one's work, as media for interacting with other people. Scenario-based design of information technology addresses five technical challenges: Scenarios evoke reflection in the content of design work, helping developers coordinate

John M. Carroll

1999-01-01

251

Bringing Scenario Planning Home to KU  

E-print Network

1 Association of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc., The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010), http://www.arl.org/bm~doc/arl-2030-scenarios- users-guide.pdf. 2 ARL and Stratus, ARL 2030 Scenarios...

Church-Duran, Jennifer; Ludwig, Deborah

2012-03-01

252

The role of scenarios in strategic foresight  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. The author describes two roles of scenarios in supporting these processes — scenarios as mental models, and through providing a

Gill Ringland

2010-01-01

253

Conservation of Combinatorial Structures in Evolution Scenarios  

E-print Network

and human X chromosomes. 1 Introduction The reconstruction of evolution scenarios based on genomeConservation of Combinatorial Structures in Evolution Scenarios Anne Bergeron, Cedric Chauve La in Evolution Scenarios Sâ??everine Bâ??erard 1 , Anne Bergeron 2 , and Cedric Chauve 2 1 LIRMM, Montpellier, France

Chauve, Cedric

254

Management  

E-print Network

Research has indicated that, depending upon driver and passenger characteristics, passengers can have either a positive or negative influence upon driver behaviour. In conclusion to a recent study investigating the roles that passengers can play to influence, positively and negatively, driver behaviour, Regan and Mitsopoulos (2001) recommended, among other things, that the principles of Crew Resource Management (CRM) training may increase passengers ’ ability to positively influence driver behaviour and also drivers ’ ability to accept constructive feedback. The present study investigated the potential application of CRM training within young driver training in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This involved a literature review, an analysis of the differences between the driving and aviation domains, an analysis of the team-based activities and the knowledge, skills and attitudes required during driving to perform those activities, consultation with CRM experts from the aviation and medicine domains and the conduct of six focus groups involving young learner drivers, provisional licence drivers and course teachers. The findings indicate that CRM training as part of young driver training in the ACT is a viable concept to pursue. The application of CRM training within young driver training has potential to significantly enhance the positive and reduce the negative effects of passengers on young driver behaviour, and thus the safety of young drivers and passengers alike. The outcomes of this study formed the basis for a set of recommendations for the development of a young driver CRM training program in the ACT.

Young Drivers; Eve Mitsopoulos; Michael Regan; Janet Anderson; Paul Salmon; Jessica Edquist; Ii Report Documentation Page

2005-01-01

255

Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates  

SciTech Connect

In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense, 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2013-07-01

256

Perfect storm: organizational management of patient care under natural disaster conditions.  

PubMed

Managing uncertainty is an essential attribute of organizational leadership and effectiveness. Uncertainty threatens optimal decision making by managers and, by extension, reduces the quality of patient care. Variation in the work flows of everyday patient caregiving reflects management's steps to control uncertainty, which include strategies for contending with potential disaster scenarios. Little exists in the literature that reveals how management's strategic response to controlling uncertainty in a real disaster event differs from strategies practiced in disaster simulations, with the goal of protecting patient care. Using organization theory, this article presents the application of uncertainty management to the catastrophic flooding of a major teaching hospital. A detailed description of management's strategies for patient rescue and evacuation is provided. Unique aspects of managing uncertainty stemming from a natural disaster are highlighted. Recommendations on organization responses to disasters that optimize patient care, safety, and continuity are offered to managers. PMID:14552099

McCaughrin, William Cass; Mattammal, Maria

2003-01-01

257

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.  

PubMed

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID:24361447

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

258

Industrial research for transmutation scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

2011-04-01

259

Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans  

SciTech Connect

This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

2007-06-01

260

5 Inventory of Existing Activities This Chapter evaluates existing legal protections, projects, plans, and activities against  

E-print Network

) is for the protection of life and property from natural disasters and hazards. Key section is Section 44.55 (C) Water Columbia Gorge Tributaries. 5.1 Existing Legal Protection This section describes legal protections of natural land cover and a mandated management plan in operation to maintain a natural state within which

261

Existence and non-existence of breather solutions in damped and driven nonlinear lattices  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We investigate the existence of spatially localised solutions, in the form of discrete breathers, in general damped and driven nonlinear lattice systems of coupled oscillators. Conditions for the exponential decay of the difference between the maximal and minimal amplitudes of the oscillators are provided which proves that initial non-uniform spatial patterns representing breathers attain exponentially fast a spatially uniform state preventing the formation and/or preservation of any breather solution at all. Strikingly our results are generic in the sense that they hold for arbitrary dimension of the system, any attractive interaction, coupling strength and on-site potential and general driving fields. Furthermore, our rigorous quantitative results establish conditions under which discrete breathers in general damped and driven nonlinear lattices can exist at all and open the way for further research on the emergent dynamical scenarios, in particular features of pattern formation, localisation and synchronisation, in coupled cell networks.

Hennig, D.

2013-10-01

262

4. Fifteenmile Subbasin--Inventory of Existing Activities May 25 2004  

E-print Network

4. Fifteenmile Subbasin--Inventory of Existing Activities DRAFT May 25 2004 Compiled by Wasco. FIFTEENMILE SUBBASIN--INVENTORY OF EXISTING ACTIVITIES..................................... 1 INVENTORY............................. 3 4.2 EXISTING MANAGEMENT PLANS AND PROGRAMS

263

Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration.  

SciTech Connect

As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these chal- lenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in %22cloud%22 computing and %22big-data%22 methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing envirnoment that could provide the foundation (i.e. %22cloud%22) for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of %22parallel multi-simulation%22. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; Jungels, John; Oppel, Fred J., [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

2015-01-01

264

LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement.  

PubMed

When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues. PMID:22516101

Slagstad, Helene; Brattebø, Helge

2012-07-01

265

Five reasons for scenario-based design  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of human-computer interaction help us to understand and to create computer systems and applications as artifacts of human activity-as things to learn from, as tools to use in one's work, as media for interacting with other people. Scenario-based design of information technology addresses five technical challenges. Scenarios evoke reflection in the content of design work, helping developers coordinate design

John M. Carroll

1999-01-01

266

Framework for Model Independent Analyses of Multiple Extra Quark Scenarios  

E-print Network

In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analyses so as to set bounds on new quark resonances. In particular, we report on the re-interpretation of the existing limits on benchmark scenarios with one and multiple pair-produced top partners having non-exclusive couplings to the third Standard Model generation of quarks.

D. Barducci; A. Belyaev; M. Buchkremer; G. Cacciapaglia; A. Deandrea; S. De Curtis; J. Marrouche; S. Moretti; L. Panizzi

2014-12-08

267

Framework for model independent analyses of multiple extra quark scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analyses so as to set bounds on new quark resonances. In particular, we report on the re-interpretation of the existing limits on benchmark scenarios with one and multiple pair-produced top partners having non-exclusive couplings to the third Standard Model generation of quarks.

Barducci, Daniele; Belyaev, Alexander; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

2014-12-01

268

Can WIMP Dark Matter overcome the Nightmare Scenario?  

E-print Network

Even if new physics beyond the Standard Model (SM) indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called "nightmare scenario". On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) with the mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the SM gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate a possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

Shinya Kanemura; Shigeki Matsumoto; Takehiro Nabeshima; Nobuchika Okada

2010-05-31

269

Soil erosion risk scenarios in the Mediterranean environment using RUSLE and GIS: An application model for Calabria (southern Italy)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soil erosion by water (WSE) has become a relevant issue at the Mediterranean level. In particular, natural conditions and human impact have made the Calabria (southern Italy) particularly prone to intense WSE. The purpose of this investigation is to identify areas highly affected by WSE in Calabria by comparing the scenarios obtained by assuming control and preventive measures and actions, as well as actual conditions generated by forest fires, also in the presence of conditions of maximum rainfall erosion. Geographic Information System techniques have been adopted to treat data of reasonable spatial resolution obtained at a regional scale for application to the RUSLE model. This work is based on the comparison of such data with a basic scenario that has been defined by the present situation (present scenario). In this scenario: (i) R has been assessed by means of an experimental relation adjusted to Calabria on the basis of 5-min observations; (ii) K has been drawn from the soil map of Calabria including 160 soilscapes; (iii) LS has been estimated according to the RUSLE2 model by using (among other subfactors) a 40-m square cell DTM; (iv) C has been derived by processing the data inferred from the project Corine Land Cover, whose legend includes 35 different land uses on three levels; and (v) P has been hypothesized as equal to 1. For the remaining three hypothesized scenarios, the RUSLE factors have been adjusted according to experimental data and to data in the literature. In particular, forest areas subject to fire have been randomly generated as far as fire location, extension, structure, and intensity are concerned. The values obtained by the application of the RUSLE model have emphasized that land management by means of measures and actions for reducing WSE causes a notable reduction of the erosive rate decreasing from ~30 to 12.3 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . On the other hand, variations induced by hypothetical wildfires in forests on 10% of the regional territory bring WSE over the whole region to values varying from 30 to 116 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . This study can be offered to territorial planning authorities as an evaluation instrument as it highlights the merits and limitations of some territorial management actions. In fact, in Calabria no observations exist concerning the implications of these actions.

Terranova, O.; Antronico, L.; Coscarelli, R.; Iaquinta, P.

2009-11-01

270

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

271

How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?  

E-print Network

Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...

He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2013-01-01

272

Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

2004-01-01

273

Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals  

SciTech Connect

Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

2008-10-03

274

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

275

Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

276

Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing trees, the best scenario to reduce carbon was also rotational coppicing, due to the highest potential of CO2 reduction by woodenergy utilization. The result suggests that rotational coppicing, which mimics historical management, can also serve contemporary ends. Rotational coppicing can be promoted from the policies related to carbon reduction, but at the same time, further studies for clarifying the optimum degree of human disturbance (e.g. frequency of tree cutting, groundcover removal) are necessary to avoid negative impacts to forest ecosystems.

Terada, T.

2012-04-01

277

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

278

Scenario Planning at College of Marin.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

279

Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the

Osvaldo E. Sala; F. Stuart Chapin III; Juan J. Armesto; Eric Berlow; Janine Bloomfield; Rodolfo Dirzo; Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald; Laura F. Huenneke; Robert B. Jackson; David M. Lodge; Harold A. Mooney; N. LeRoy Poff; Martin T. Sykes; Brian H. Walker; Diana H. Wall

2000-01-01

280

Future scenarios of European agricultural land use  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents the development of quantitative, spatially explicit and alternative scenarios of future agricultural land use in Europe (the 15 European Union member states, Norway and Switzerland). The scenarios were constructed to support analyses of the vulnerability of ecosystem services, but the approach also provides an exploration of how agricultural land use might respond to a range of future

M. D. A. Rounsevell; F. Ewert; I. Reginster; R. Leemans; T. R. Carter

2005-01-01

281

Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020  

E-print Network

Danish Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios for 2020 and 2050 February 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy 54 2.9 ENERGY RESOURCES 55 3 DANISH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION 58 3.1 GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES 58 4 scenarios for Denmark for 2020 and 2050 for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (DEPA). During

282

Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article presents a set of 30 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios developed by six modeling teams. The scenarios describe trajectories up to 2100 by four world regions. Today the distribution of both income and GHG emissions is very unbalanced between various world regions. Furthermore, the relative importance of individual gases and sources of emission differ from region to region.

Tom Kram; Tsuneyuki Morita; Keywan Riahi; R. Alexander Roehrl; Sascha Van Rooijen; Alexei Sankovski; Bert De Vries

2000-01-01

283

Multimedia Scenario in a Primary School  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Multimedia as an educational technology tool is used throughout the educational system. In this article we present a research project where multimedia scenario was used to initiate a discussion about Internet use among students and teachers at a primary school. Multimedia scenario is the use of large screen multimedia to initiate and facilitate…

Nulden, Urban; Ward, Bodil

2002-01-01

284

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

285

SCENARIO RECOGNITION IN MODERN BUILDING AUTOMATION  

Microsoft Academic Search

Modern building automation has to deal with very different types of demands, depending on the use of the building and therefore the persons acting within this building. To meet the demands of situation awareness in modern building automation, scenario recognition becomes more and more important to detect such demands and react to them. Two concepts of scenario recognition and their

R. Lang; D. Bruckner; G. Pratl; R. Velik; T. Deutsch

2009-01-01

286

Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2013-12-01

287

Nitrogen use scenario in India.  

PubMed

Nitrogen is one of the major plant nutrients without which the agricultural production is not possible. Nitrogen use in Indian agriculture was nearly 55000 tons in 1950-1951 that increased to 11.31 million tons in 2001-2002. The total food production of the country has also experienced the similar increase from 50.83 to 222 million tons in the respective years. Interestingly the N fertilizer consumption of India remained almost constant during the last six years indicating the possibility of reducing N consumption. The highest N consumption is in North zone owing to the introduction of rice-wheat cropping system followed by West, South and East. The N use efficiency has been reported to be varying between 30% to 50% depending on the crops and the management. But in most of the cases, N use efficiency has been calculated based on the total N removed by the crops (above ground part only) ignoring the N content left in the roots. It has been observed in controlled experiments that the total N uptake by roots varied from 18% to 44% of the total N removed by the above ground parts, i.e. grain and straw. If the root N is also accounted, the N use efficiency will be higher than reported. The management of other organic sources has to be improved so as to increase the fertilizer use efficiency as well as to check the direct release of N in the atmosphere. In this review all these issues will be dealt. PMID:16512213

Gupta, A P

2005-12-01

288

Nitrogen use scenario in India.  

PubMed

Nitrogen is one of the major plant nutrients without which the agricultural production is not possible. Nitrogen use in Indian agriculture was nearly 55000 tons in 1950-1951 that increased to 11.31 million tons in 2001-2002. The total food production of the country has also experienced the similar increase from 50.83 to 222 million tons in the respective years. Interestingly the N fertilizer consumption of India remained almost constant during the last six years indicating the possibility of reducing N consumption. The highest N consumption is in North zone owing to the introduction of rice-wheat cropping system followed by West, South and East. The N use efficiency has been reported to be varying between 30% to 50% depending on the crops and the management. But in most of the cases, N use efficiency has been calculated based on the total N removed by the crops (above ground part only) ignoring the N content left in the roots. It has been observed in controlled experiments that the total N uptake by roots varied from 18% to 44% of the total N removed by the above ground parts, i.e. grain and straw. If the root N is also accounted, the N use efficiency will be higher than reported. The management of other organic sources has to be improved so as to increase the fertilizer use efficiency as well as to check the direct release of N in the atmosphere. In this review all these issues will be dealt. PMID:20549446

Gupta, A P

2005-09-01

289

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

290

Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition and Management: The World Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial and construction activities by natural persons which is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population, urbanization, development of social economy, coupled with improvement of living standard have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world. On an average the

TANMOY KARAK; R. M. BHAGAT; PRADIP BHATTACHARYYA

2011-01-01

291

Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

2004-01-01

292

Superfluid Density in the d -Density-Wave Scenario  

SciTech Connect

Recently Chakravarty, Laughlin, Morr, and Nayak [Phys.Rev.B 62, 4880 (2000)] made an interesting proposal that the cuprate superconductors possess a hidden 'd -density-wave' (DDW) order. We study the implication of this proposal for the superfluid density {rho}{sub s}. We find that it predicts a temperature gradient vertical bar d{rho}{sub s}/dT vertical bar{sub T=0} that is strongly doping dependent near the critical doping at which the superconducting gap vanishes. This demonstrates that the DDW scenario is inconsistent with existing well-established experimental data.

Wang, Qiang-Hua; Han, Jung Hoon; Lee, Dung-Hai

2001-08-13

293

Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.

Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

2012-12-01

294

Nipah virus infection: current scenario.  

PubMed

The emergence of Nipah virus (NiV) infection into the pig population and subsequently into the human population is believed to be due to changes in ecological conditions. In Malaysia, A major NiV outbreak occurred in pigs and humans from September 1998 to April 1999 that resulted in infection of 265 and death of 105 persons. About 1.1 million pigs had to be destroyed to control the outbreak. The disease was recorded in the form of a major outbreak in India in 2001 and then a small incidence in 2007, both the outbreaks in West Bengal only in humans without any involvement of pigs. There were series of human Nipah incidences in Bangladesh from 2001 till 2013 almost every year with mortality exceeding 70 %. The disease transmission from pigs acting as an intermediate host during Malaysian and Singapore outbreaks has changed in NIV outbreaks in India and Bangladesh, transmitting the disease directly from bats to human followed by human to human. The drinking of raw date palm sap contaminated with fruit bat urine or saliva containing NiV is the only known cause of outbreak of the disease in Bangladesh outbreaks. The virus is now known to exist in various fruit bats of Pteropus as well as bats of other genera in a wider belt from Asia to Africa. PMID:24426305

Kulkarni, D D; Tosh, C; Venkatesh, G; Senthil Kumar, D

2013-12-01

295

Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

Hall, Robert J.

1992-01-01

296

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

297

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.  

PubMed

The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process. PMID:21908095

Mazzorana, B; Comiti, F; Scherer, C; Fuchs, S

2012-02-01

298

Context-specific, scenario-based risk scales.  

PubMed

Reacting to an emergency requires quick decisions under stressful and dynamic conditions. To react effectively, responders need to know the right actions to take given the risks posed by the emergency. While existing research on risk scales focuses primarily on decision making in static environments with known risks, these scales may be inappropriate for conditions where the decision maker's time and mental resources are limited and may be infeasible if the actual risk probabilities are unknown. In this article, we propose a method to develop context-specific, scenario-based risk scales designed for emergency response training. Emergency scenarios are used as scale points, reducing our dependence on known probabilities; these are drawn from the targeted emergency context, reducing the mental resources required to interpret the scale. The scale is developed by asking trainers/trainees to rank order a range of risk scenarios and then aggregating these orderings using a Kemeny ranking. We propose measures to assess this aggregated scale's internal consistency, reliability, and validity, and we discuss how to use the scale effectively. We demonstrate our process by developing a risk scale for subsurface coal mine emergencies and test the reliability of the scale by repeating the process, with some methodological variations, several months later. PMID:22616611

Yu, Michael; Lejarraga, Tomás; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2012-12-01

299

A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem  

E-print Network

Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

Gianmassimo Tasinato

2014-11-11

300

The Greenhouse Effect Does Exist!  

Microsoft Academic Search

In particular, without the greenhouse effect, essential features of the atmospheric temperature profile as a function of height cannot be described, i.e., the existence of the tropopause above which we see an almost isothermal temperature curve, whereas beneath it the temperature curve is nearly adiabatic. The relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed temperature curve is explained and the paper

Jochen Ebel

2009-01-01

301

Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin  

E-print Network

Examines the literature and available data on hydroclimatic variability and change on the Indus Basin plains, comparing historical fluctuations in climatic and hydrologic variables and reviewing scenarios of climate change ...

Yu, Winston

302

Scenario building to understand complex systems  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

"A scenario is a plausible, simplified, synthetic description of how the future of a system might develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships among key variables" (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Building scenarios that envision a (or a set of) possible future, promotes learning about what drivers are most important in driving change in a system.

Orr, Cailn H.

303

Liver resection for HCC: patient's selection and controversial scenarios.  

PubMed

Liver resection is a valuable curative option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Yet, the balance between the operative risk following hepatectomy for HCC occurring on chronic liver disease and the oncologic prognosis of advanced lesions have led treatment recommendations to limiting the place of liver resection to selected patients with preserved liver function harbouring early-stage tumours. However, better understanding of the natural history of both tumour and underlying liver disease, sophisticated assessment of the liver function, improvements in the preoperative management of the patients with the use of liver volume modulation, refinements in surgical technique including anatomic resection and laparoscopic approach along with tailored management of recurrences have led expert centres to better define and extend the indications for liver resection. In this setting, the reported favourable operative results and long-term outcomes following resection of HCC in a number of controversial scenarios support that current guidelines could be refined. PMID:25260315

Cauchy, François; Soubrane, Olivier; Belghiti, Jacques

2014-10-01

304

Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

2014-01-01

305

Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse

Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

2009-01-01

306

Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

1995-01-01

307

Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications  

PubMed Central

The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

2014-01-01

308

Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels  

SciTech Connect

With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.

Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.

2003-02-26

309

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

310

Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

1997-01-01

311

The real world and lunar base activation scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

Schmitt, Harrison H.

1992-01-01

312

Future scenarios for a sustainable water sector: a case study from Switzerland.  

PubMed

Uncertainties about the long-term prospects of urban water management systems have increased substantially over the past decade due to an increasing variety of regulations, technologies, and demand structures. In Switzerland, this uncertainty is mirrored by growing difficulties of utility managers and (waste)water scientists to agree on shared strategies: Water professionals demand support for pressing management problems, while researchers fundamentally question the longer-term sustainability of the established water management system. To reestablish shared orientation, we conducted a foresight study for the Swiss (waste)water sector in 2004. Based on interviews with 29 experts from Swiss water management and research to collect 56 drivers of change, a team of 17 experts developed three scenarios: (A) regional mergers of water utilities leading to enhanced professionalism in the sector, (B) consequent material flows management leading to a radically restructured urban water management system, and (C) generalized financial crisis leading to a breakdown of centralized utility services. These scenarios helped identifying shared research priorities. We conclude that scenario analysis is a powerful tool for framing long-term strategies, defining priorities, and integrating different interests in the multidisciplinary contexts of sustainability science, which are marked by high uncertainties and concern a wide range of stakeholder groups. PMID:16468386

Lienert, Judit; Monstadt, Jochen; Truffer, Bernhard

2006-01-15

313

The EXIST Mission Concept Study  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in scanning mode, interrupted for several orbits per day by GRB follow-ups, followed by a combined pointing-scanning mission phase for optical/IR spectroscopy and redshifts for the large AGN sample found in the survey as well as GRBs and LSST transients. A Team of university, NASA, and industry investigators will conduct the study to determine the full sensitivity and capabilities of this new configuration for EXIST. It will build on the extensive studies of the prior design for the mission and the HET and will incorporate the optical/IR telescope (hereafter IRT) now fully developed by our ITT partner for the NextView Commercial Remote Sensing mission (early 2008 launch) with a focal plane to be developed at GSFC based in part on JWST/NIRSPEC designs. No new technology is needed for either the IRT or HET instruments. The study will pay close attention to full mission cost and present a design for the Decadal Survey Workshop to ensure this even more capable EXIST mission is once again part of the next Decadal Survey.

Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

2008-01-01

314

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

315

43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.  

...MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE... TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and...connection with existing roads. An applicant for...desiring to use an existing road owned or controlled by the United States,...

2014-10-01

316

43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE... TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and...connection with existing roads. An applicant for...desiring to use an existing road owned or controlled by the United States,...

2012-10-01

317

43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE... TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and...connection with existing roads. An applicant for...desiring to use an existing road owned or controlled by the United States,...

2011-10-01

318

43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE... TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and...connection with existing roads. An applicant for...desiring to use an existing road owned or controlled by the United States,...

2013-10-01

319

7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134...REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

2013-01-01

320

7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.  

...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134...REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

2014-01-01

321

7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134...REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

2012-01-01

322

Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

2011-12-01

323

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

324

Twenty-Five Years of HIV: Lessons for Low Prevalence Scenarios  

PubMed Central

During the initial quarter century since the discovery of HIV, international response has focused on high prevalence scenarios and concentrated epidemics. Until recently, the theoretical underpinnings of HIV prevention were largely based on these responses—the assumption that inadequate responses to concentrated epidemics within low prevalence populations could rapidly lead to generalized epidemics. The limits of these assumptions for HIV prevention in low prevalence scenarios have become evident. While examples of rapid HIV diffusion in once low prevalence scenarios exist, emergence of generalized epidemics are less likely for much of the world. This paper reviews several key issues and advances in biomedical and behavioural HIV prevention to date and highlights relevance to low prevalence scenarios. PMID:19553782

Sawires, Sharif; Birnbaum, Nina; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Szekeres, Greg; Gayle, Jacob

2012-01-01

325

Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

2001-07-11

326

Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century.  

PubMed

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century. PMID:25179273

Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R; Brown, Christopher J; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I; Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J

2015-02-01

327

The Greenhouse Effect Does Exist!  

E-print Network

In particular, without the greenhouse effect, essential features of the atmospheric temperature profile as a function of height cannot be described, i.e., the existence of the tropopause above which we see an almost isothermal temperature curve, whereas beneath it the temperature curve is nearly adiabatic. The relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed temperature curve is explained and the paper by Gerlich and Tscheuschner [arXiv:0707.1161] critically analyzed. Gerlich and Tscheuschner called for this discussion in their paper.

Ebel, Jochen

2009-01-01

328

Incorporating Temporal Capabilities in Existing Key Management Mikhail J. Atallah  

E-print Network

-0627488 from the National Science Foundation, and by sponsors of the Center for Education and Research. There is a wide range of applications that follow this model and which would benefit from automatic enforcement is well captured by our model. · Subscription-based services such as digital libraries, music collections

329

Incorporating Temporal Capabilities in Existing Key Management Mikhail J. Atallah #  

E-print Network

­0627488 from the National Science Foundation, and by sponsors of the Center for Education and Research in the system. There is a wide range of applications that follow this model and which would benefit from, music collections, digital subscriptions to news­ papers and magazines, etc. Here a user may be able

330

Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview  

USGS Publications Warehouse

On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

Kilpatrick, F.A.

1977-01-01

331

China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)  

SciTech Connect

China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domesti

Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

2004-03-10

332

Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios--lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes.  

PubMed

Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region. Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU. PMID:19853368

Lindborg, Regina; Stenseke, Marie; Cousins, Sara A O; Bengtsson, Jan; Berg, Ake; Gustafsson, Tomas; Sjödin, N Erik; Eriksson, Ove

2009-01-01

333

User Experiences and Acceptance Scenarios of NFC Applications in Security Service Field Work  

Microsoft Academic Search

The goal of the study was to understand how security service personnel experienced the usability, reliability and work performance effects of the current NFC service in use, what were the key development needs related to the information management and communication in their work, and which of the future NFC scenarios were found to be potentially most attractive. The results of

Heljä Franssila

2010-01-01

334

Two scenarios for quantum multifractality breakdown.  

PubMed

We expose two scenarios for the breakdown of quantum multifractality under the effect of perturbations. In the first scenario, multifractality survives below a certain scale of the quantum fluctuations. In the other one, the fluctuations of the wave functions are changed at every scale and each multifractal dimension smoothly goes to the ergodic value. We use as generic examples a one-dimensional dynamical system and the three-dimensional Anderson model at the metal-insulator transition. Based on our results, we conjecture that the sensitivity of quantum multifractality to perturbation is universal in the sense that it follows one of these two scenarios depending on the perturbation. We also discuss the experimental implications. PMID:24972209

Dubertrand, R; García-Mata, I; Georgeot, B; Giraud, O; Lemarié, G; Martin, J

2014-06-13

335

Optimal management of groundwater pumping of the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A simulation model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache area, Arkansas, was coupled with an optimization model to determine maximum optimal pumping from irrigation wells in the areas where cones of depression exist. Groundwater Vistas and Groundwater Management software were used for simulation and optimization model, respectively. The Cache area was designated as a critical groundwater area in 2009 due to the decline in its water level to below 50 % of the saturated thickness of the aquifer. The optimization model was formulated with the objective of maximizing water production from wells subjected to minimum head constraints and drawdown constraints, while limiting groundwater withdrawals to a maximum of 100 and 200 % of the rate pumped in 2010. Four different sets of managed wells were tested in Scenarios 1, 3 (938 wells) and Scenarios 2, 4 (3870 wells). The optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.59 and 2.43 Mm3/d for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. In the case of maximum pumping constraints of the managed wells specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of 2010, the optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.88 and 3.28 Mm3/d for Scenarios 3 and 4, respectively. The average optimal pumping increased by 6-49 % in the case of the maximum pumping constraint specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of the year 2010.

Rashid, Haveen; Al-Shukri, Haydar; Mahdi, Hanan

2014-03-01

336

HIGH-LEVEL SCENARIO EDITING FOR SERIOUS GAMES Casper van Est, Ronald Poelman, Rafael Bidarra  

E-print Network

video games originally came into existence, their purpose was solely to entertain. Nowadays, with video in this area, a subset of video games called serious games is being used for business and educational purposesHIGH-LEVEL SCENARIO EDITING FOR SERIOUS GAMES Casper van Est, Ronald Poelman, Rafael Bidarra

Bidarra, Rafael

337

Mining API Patterns as Partial Orders from Source Code: From Usage Scenarios to Specifications  

E-print Network

Mining API Patterns as Partial Orders from Source Code: From Usage Scenarios to Specifications with third-party libraries through var- ious APIs. Using these library APIs often needs to follow certain usage patterns. Furthermore, ordering rules (specifications) exist between APIs, and these rules govern

Pei, Jian

338

Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre-projection and actually projection stages. On pre-projection stage the algorithm of calculation is developed; the choice of operational units for the projection is carried out; the modern condition of water resources and its connection with use of water in examined river basins is considered; tendencies in development of an economy and use of water resources during last decades are revealed. On actually projection stages are analyzed available forecasts concerning an expected population and indexes of development for the economy basic branches, and also specific water consumption, taking into account radical methods on prevention of water resources quality deterioration. Results of development of integrated scenarios are submitted by the examples for the largest river basins of Russian plain and Siberia (Volga, Don and Lena river basins).

Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

2010-12-01

339

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

2013-01-01

340

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

341

Discussion Of Scenario ResultsDiscussion Of Scenario Results Michael Schilmoeller  

E-print Network

At 84% capacity factor, the Council's Carbon Footprint Paper estimates regional coal plant carbon (Btu/kWh) tons CO2/MWh RPM & Genesys (%) Council's Carbon Footprint paper Boardman 601.0 84% 504 Committee Web Conference Thursday, May 28, 2009 #12;2 ScenariosScenarios Base case Suspend Carbon Policy

342

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

343

Straightening: existence, uniqueness and stability.  

PubMed

One of the least studied universal deformations of incompressible nonlinear elasticity, namely the straightening of a sector of a circular cylinder into a rectangular block, is revisited here and, in particular, issues of existence and stability are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the system of forces required to sustain the large static deformation, including by the application of end couples. The influence of geometric parameters and constitutive models on the appearance of wrinkles on the compressed face of the block is also studied. Different numerical methods for solving the incremental stability problem are compared and it is found that the impedance matrix method, based on the resolution of a matrix Riccati differential equation, is the more precise. PMID:24711723

Destrade, M; Ogden, R W; Sgura, I; Vergori, L

2014-04-01

344

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

345

Image interpolation for virtual sports scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

View interpolation has been explored in the scien- tific community as a means to avoid the complexity of full 3D in the construction of photo-realistic interactive scenar- ios. EVENTS project attempts to apply state of the art view interpolation to the field of professional sports. The aim is to populate a wide scenario such as a stadium with a number

Tomás Rodríguez; Ian D. Reid; Radu Horaud; Navneet Dalal; Marcelo Goetz

2005-01-01

346

California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80%  

E-print Network

! California's Carbon Challenge: Scenarios for Achieving 80% Emissions Reduction in 2050 Lead Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at the University of California-Berkeley; 2 Itron; 3 University of California-Davis Environmental Energy Technologies Division October 31, 2012 This work was supported

Kammen, Daniel M.

347

AGN jet launch scenarios Rony Keppens  

E-print Network

AGN jet launch scenarios Rony Keppens Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven Rony Keppens (KU Leuven) Jet launch Nov. 2013, IAC winter school 1 / 48 #12;Astrophysical Jets · astrophysical jets: ubiquitous presence of accretion disks Young Stellar Objects (YSO

348

Tachyonic Inflation in the Braneworld Scenario  

E-print Network

We consider cosmological inflation driven by the rolling tachyon in the context of the braneworld scenario. We show that sufficient inflation consistent with the observational constraints can be achieved for well defined upper limits on the five-dimensional mass scale, string mass scale and the string coupling for the bosonic string.

M. C. Bento; O. Bertolami; A. A. Sen

2002-11-07

349

Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

2014-01-01

350

Deriving Safety Requirements Using Scenarios Karen Allenby  

E-print Network

Deriving Safety Requirements Using Scenarios Karen Allenby University of York Department.kelly@cs.york.ac.uk Abstract Elicitation of requirements for safety critical aero- engine control systems is dependent deviations from that intent. Deriva- tion of these requirements is inextricably linked to the safety

Kelly, Tim

351

Semantic-based weaving of scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The notion of aspect looks promising for handling cross-cutting concerns earlier in the software life-cycle, up from programming to design, analysis and even requirements. Support for aspects is thus now raising interest also at the modeling level, including with behavioral modeling languages such as scenarios. With this kind of modeling languages, even if aspect weaving can be performed at the

Jacques Klein; Loïc Hélouët; Jean-marc Jézéquel

2006-01-01

352

Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

353

Target and background simulation for seeker scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

As seeker technology improves, the demands on the scenarios presented in a laboratory environment become more stringent. It becomes more necessary to provide representative dynamic backgrounds and targets rather than rely only on computer simulations. For a specific target projector system we are investigating the requirement of several target and background situations to determine how to present the proper output

Mary G. Turner; William L. Wolfe

1993-01-01

354

A scenario for Jovian S-bursts  

Microsoft Academic Search

Jovian S-bursts are intense impulsive decameter radio spikes drifting in frequency in tens of milliseconds over several hundreds of kHz up to a few MHz. Their generation scenario has been much debated for 30 years. The automated analysis of an extensive set of digital radio observations at very high temporal and spectral resolutions is presented here. It strongly suggests that

Philippe Zarka; Thomas Farges; Boris P. Ryabov; Meil Abada-Simon; Laurent Denis

1996-01-01

355

A Scenario for the Future of Museums  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

Cunningham, Mary Kay

2009-01-01

356

Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

Anderson, Jane; And Others

357

An Anthropomorphic Navigation Scheme for Dynamic Scenarios  

E-print Network

An Anthropomorphic Navigation Scheme for Dynamic Scenarios Leonardo Scandolo and Thierry Fraichard that is anthropomorphic, i.e. that emulates human behaviors and seeks to adhere to these social rules. Unlike previous that better anthropomorphic behaviors can be obtained by reasoning about the future evolution

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

358

Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight  

Microsoft Academic Search

Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and

Clem Bezold

2010-01-01

359

Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a scenario with at least 8.5 Wm-2. To address this problem each SSP scenario can be treated as a reference scenario, to which emissions mitigation policies can be applied to create a set of RCP replications. These RCP replications have the underlying SSP socio-economic assumptions in addition to policy assumptions and radiative forcing levels consistent with the CMIP5 products. We report quantitative results of initial experiments from the five participating groups.

Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

360

Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

2014-04-01

361

Using 'endowed props' in scenario-based design  

Microsoft Academic Search

We have developed a form of scenario-based design that aims to increase stakeholders' sense of 'immersion' in the happenings and situations depicted in the scenarios. In our approach, scenarios are 'acted out' by actors and\\/or candidate users during participatory design sessions, rather than being 'walked through' by designers and users. In form, our scenarios are bare and malleable and load

Steve Howard; Jennie Carroll; John Murphy; Jane Peck

2002-01-01

362

On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in

Suraje Dessai; Xianfu Lu; James S. Risbey

2005-01-01

363

Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan  

SciTech Connect

Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

364

Safety Sufficiency for NextGen: Assessment of Selected Existing Safety Methods, Tools, Processes, and Regulations  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

NextGen is a complex socio-technical system and, in many ways, it is expected to be more complex than the current system. It is vital to assess the safety impact of the NextGen elements (technologies, systems, and procedures) in a rigorous and systematic way and to ensure that they do not compromise safety. In this study, the NextGen elements in the form of Operational Improvements (OIs), Enablers, Research Activities, Development Activities, and Policy Issues were identified. The overall hazard situation in NextGen was outlined; a high-level hazard analysis was conducted with respect to multiple elements in a representative NextGen OI known as OI-0349 (Automation Support for Separation Management); and the hazards resulting from the highly dynamic complexity involved in an OI-0349 scenario were illustrated. A selected but representative set of the existing safety methods, tools, processes, and regulations was then reviewed and analyzed regarding whether they are sufficient to assess safety in the elements of that OI and ensure that safety will not be compromised and whether they might incur intolerably high costs.

Xu, Xidong; Ulrey, Mike L.; Brown, John A.; Mast, James; Lapis, Mary B.

2013-01-01

365

A scenario planning approach for disasters on Swiss road network  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We study a vehicular traffic scenario on Swiss roads in an emergency situation, calculating how sequentially roads block due to excessive traffic load until global collapse (gridlock) occurs and in this way displays the fragilities of the system. We used a database from Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung which contains length and maximum allowed speed of all roads in Switzerland. The present work could be interesting for government agencies in planning and managing for emergency logistics for a country or a big city. The model used to generate the flux on the Swiss road network was proposed by Mendes et al. [Physica A 391, 362 (2012)]. It is based on the conservation of the number of vehicles and allows for an easy and fast way to follow the formation of traffic jams in large systems. We also analyze the difference between a nonlinear and a linear model and the distribution of fluxes on the Swiss road.

Mendes, G. A.; Axhausen, K. W.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

2014-05-01

366

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory  

SciTech Connect

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

NONE

1995-08-01

367

DRAFT: Int. J. Climatology, 2007, in press (MS# IJOC-06-0225) Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts  

E-print Network

and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific and to downscale global climate scenarios for the assessment of climate impacts on hydrologic systems research in support of regional resource management. Global climate model scenarios are evaluated

Salathé Jr., Eric P.

368

Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.

García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

2011-04-01

369

Simplified scenario for manned Mars missions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We propose a simplified but efficient scenario for a manned Mars mission. The idea is to select a crew of only 2 astronauts and to bring in situ resource utilization systems in the same vehicle. For security reasons, we suggest duplicating the mission as it was proposed by Von Braun. At very moment of the journey, the two vehicles would stay close so that each crew could provide help to the other. We show that this scenario is much simpler than the last design reference architecture proposed by NASA. The initial mass in low Earth orbit is minimized and the risks are also reduced. The total cost could be in the order of 40 billion dollars.

Marc Salotti, Jean

2011-09-01

370

Elastic cross sections in an RSIIp scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The elastic differential cross section is calculated at low energies (below 100 MeV) for the elements 3He, 20Ne, 40Ar, 14N, 12C, and for the 208Pb using a finite electromagnetic potential, which is obtained by considering a Randall–Sundrum II scenario modified by the inclusion of p compact extra-dimensions. The length scale is adjusted in the potential to compare with known experimental data and to set bounds for the parameter of the model. The effective four-dimensional (4D) electromagnetic potential is produced by a point charge, as seen from the three-brane that contains it, in uniform motion in an RSIIp scenario.

Arceo, R.; Pedraza, Omar; González-Espinosa, E.; Escalera Santos, G. J.; Díaz-Hernández, O.

2015-01-01

371

Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios  

SciTech Connect

We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

Sheykhi, Ahmad, E-mail: sheykhi@mail.uk.ac.ir [Department of Physics, Shahid Bahonar University, P.O. Box 76175, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Physics, Shahid Bahonar University, P.O. Box 76175, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2009-05-15

372

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario  

E-print Network

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10^2) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits.

E. Abou El Dahab; S. Khalil

2006-07-16

373

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of Script O(102) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits.

El Dahab, Eiman Abou; Khalil, Shaaban

2006-09-01

374

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario  

E-print Network

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10^2) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits.

Dahab, E A E

2006-01-01

375

A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

1992-01-01

376

AMERICA AT THE TAIWAN STRAIT: FIVE SCENARIOS  

Microsoft Academic Search

Degrees of freedom for national U.S. policy in the Taiwan Strait can be parsed by estimating the future likelihoods and time order of uncertain events—such as Taiwan independence, Chinese liberalization, truce, a Chinese attack, and U.S. choices —and not just by applying the standard paradigms of interna- tional relations theory (e.g., realist, liberal, constructivist). Ordered time scenarios can explore all

Lynn T. White

377

1906 Earthquake Scenario: San Francisco Bay Area  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This map shows estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values for the City of San Francisco and the eight counties of the Greater Bay Area, in a scenario based on the 1906 earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The 430 kilometers of fault rupture included several segments during one massive earthquake. Links are supplied to more detailed maps of the cities of Rohnert Park, Pittsburg, Antioch, San Francisco, and Palo Alto.

378

Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Most of the challenges in designing land use policies that address sustainability issues are inherent to the concept of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). Researchers, farmers and mainly policy makers need to evaluate the impact of new and existing policies for soil protection. In Europe, farmers commit themselves, for a minimum period of at least five years, to adopt environmentally-friendly farming techniques that undergone legal obligations. On the other hand, farmers receive payments that provide compensation for additional costs and income foregone resulting from applying those environmentally friendly farming practices in line with the stipulations of agri-environment contracts. In this context we prospect scenarios on soil erosion variations in a detailed case study after the application of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). The study area is located in the South part of Sicily. In a district area of 11,588 ha, 35.5 % is devoted to vineyard cultivation, 32.2 % is arable land and only 11.1 % cultivated to olive grow. 2416 ha are urbanized areas and other less important crops. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in soil organic carbon stocks after AEM adoption, following criteria based on Conteh (1999) also applied in several research studies. For the purpose of comparison, the members of a paired site were selected to be similar with respect to the type of soil, slope, elevation, and drainage, but not to AEM. The comparisons were made between adjacent patches of land with different AEM, and a known history of land use and management. 100 paired sites (two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot (600 soil samples). The rainfall erosivity (R) factor (Mj mm ha-1 hour-1 year-1) was estimated with the formula specifically proposed for Sicily by Ferro and coauthors in 1999. The soil erodibility factor (K, in tons hour MJ-1 mm-1) was mapped on the base of soil texture and soil organic carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference—Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147

Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo

2014-05-01

379

Paper waste - Recycling, incineration or landfilling? A review of existing life cycle assessments  

SciTech Connect

A review of existing life cycle assessments (LCAs) on paper and cardboard waste has been undertaken. The objectives of the review were threefold. Firstly, to see whether a consistent message comes out of published LCA literature on optimum disposal or recycling solutions for this waste type. Such message has implications for current policy formulation on material recycling and disposal in the EU. Secondly, to identify key methodological issues of paper waste management LCAs, and enlighten the influence of such issues on the conclusions of the LCA studies. Thirdly, in light of the analysis made, to discuss whether it is at all valid to use the LCA methodology in its current development state to guide policy decisions on paper waste. A total of nine LCA studies containing altogether 73 scenarios were selected from a thorough, international literature search. The selected studies are LCAs including comparisons of different management options for waste paper. Despite claims of inconsistency, the LCAs reviewed illustrate the environmental benefits in recycling over incineration or landfill options, for paper and cardboard waste. This broad consensus was found despite differences in geographic location and definitions of the paper recycling/disposal systems studied. A systematic exploration of the LCA studies showed, however, important methodological pitfalls and sources of error, mainly concerning differences in the definition of the system boundaries. Fifteen key assumptions were identified that cover the three paper cycle system areas: raw materials and forestry, paper production, and disposal/recovery. It was found that the outcome of the individual LCA studies largely depended on the choices made in some of these assumptions, most specifically the ones concerning energy use and generation, and forestry.

Villanueva, A. [European Topic Centre on Resource and Waste Management, Hojbro Plads 4, DK-1200 Copenhagen K (Denmark)], E-mail: alejandro@villanueva.dk; Wenzel, H. [Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

2007-07-01

380

Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC duration and by promoting CC in the autumn period. To conclude, the ability of TNT2 model to simulate catchments hydrology and nitrogen cycle has been demonstrated with a fine spatial resolution and fine degree of details in agricultural practices. A generic participatory 3-step-method for scenario analysis has been developed to ensure an appropriation of the prospective modeling task in decision support. Finally, the most advantageous CC management has been brought out and its effect of N cycling quantified. Keywords: hydrology, nitrogen, distributed model, diffuse pollution, scenario, decision support

Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

2010-05-01

381

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington  

USGS Publications Warehouse

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

2011-01-01

382

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

383

The Value of Scenario Development in Environmental and Socio-economic Policy Applications  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Increasing scarcity, growing demand, and a burdened water supply have generated concerns about the sustainability of the southwest's regional water infrastructure. This necessitates the adoption of improved water management practices and policies better suited to contemporary water resource dilemmas. Scenarios introduce an innovative aspect to strategic long-term planning that is currently absent from current decision- making and resource management activities. For the purpose of assessing future water resources management and sustainability needs within the region, the formal approach to scenario development adopted by scientists and researchers at the University of Arizona's SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) center is adopted. Through workshops and meetings with regional and state stakeholders, several dominant themes of interest for water resources management emerged. A historical analysis of several key variables associated with these major themes provided insight on the future uncertainty in projections and assumptions adopted in early examples of future planning in the southwest. Analysis of these key variables indicates that historical assumptions and projections in the dimensions of the environment, climate, and socio-economics lacked the dynamic planning foresight that tools such as scenarios can provide.

Mahmoud, M. I.; Gupta, H. V.

2007-12-01

384

The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment  

SciTech Connect

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL; Edmonds, Dr. Jae A [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Hibbard, Kathy [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Manning, Dr. Martin R. [New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute; Rose, Steven K. [Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI); Moss, Dr. Richard [Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI); Van Vuuren, Dr. Detlef [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Carter, Dr. Timothy [Finnish Environment Institute; Emori, Dr. Seita [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Kainuma, Dr. Mikiko [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Kram, Dr. Tom [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Meehl, Dr. Gerald A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Mitchell, Dr. John F. B. [Met Office, UK; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa [ORNL; Riahi, Dr. Keywan [IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; Smith, Dr. Steven J. [Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI); Stouffer, Dr. Ronald J. [NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ; Thomson, Dr. Allison [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Weyant, Dr. John P. [Stanford University

2010-01-01

385

Application Scenarios of Ontology-Driven  

E-print Network

, in use in the domains of road traffic man- agement or air traffic control, operate in geographically wide. Large-scale control systems, as encountered in the domain of road traffic management, typically deal, Context Awareness, Road Traffic Management Introduction Large-scale control systems, as, for example

Hochreiter, Sepp

386

Traceability of patient records usage: barriers and opportunities for improving user interface design and data management.  

PubMed

Although IT governance practices (like ITIL, which recommends on the use of audit logs for proper service level management) are being introduced in many Hospitals to cope with increasing levels of information quality and safety requirements, the standard maturity levels of hospital IT departments is still not enough to reach the level of frequent use of audit logs. This paper aims to address the issues related to the existence of AT in patient records, describe the Hospitals scenario and to produce recommendations. Representatives from four hospitals were interviewed regarding the use of AT in their Hospital IS. Very few AT are known to exist in these hospitals (average of 1 per hospital in an estimate of 21 existing IS). CIOs should to be much more concerned with the existence and maintenance of AT. Recommendations include server clock synchronization and using advanced log visualization tools. PMID:21893756

Cruz-Correia, Ricardo; Lapão, Luís; Rodrigues, Pedro Pereira

2011-01-01

387

Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian literature these typical movements has been described as alunecare curgatoare. The Formative Scenario Analysis approach will be applied for each component of risk (H,V,and A) and then the acquired states will be combined in order to obtain for obtaining a series of alternatives scenarios for risk. The approach is structured in two main sections corresponding to a level of influence of conditioning factors and a response. In this latter are obtained the results of the formative scenario approach trained with the conditioning factors of the first level. These factors are divided in two subsets representing 2 levels of influences, k=1 comprises the global factors while in k=2 one finds local factors. In order to include uncertainty estimation within the analysis the method of knowledge representation type-1 fuzzy sets is introduced and hence decisions made by experts on certain events are expressed in terms of triangular fuzzy numbers.

Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

388

Copyright Management for Scholarship  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article describes the author's experience working with copyright and teachers' level of awareness or unawareness of the basics about copyright. The article is divided into sections on the following topics: Rewards for Authors; Hypothetical Scenarios; Options for Managing Authors' Rights; and Emerging Principles for Scholarly Communications.…

Petersen, Rodney J.

2004-01-01

389

Alternative scenarios of social development: is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How?  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the article some alternative scenarios of social development are presented and discussed in detail. The following scenarios are discussed: (i) the Deep Ecology Scenario, (ii) the Strong Sustainable Development Scenario, (iii) the Weak Sustainable Development Scenario, (iv) the Boomsday Scenario, (v) the Doomsday Scenario and (vi) the World Bank 'Policy Tunnel' Scenario. In the article it is noted that

Jari Kaivo-oja

1999-01-01

390

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr?1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr?1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

2014-10-01

391

Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario  

SciTech Connect

Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2011-01-25

392

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

393

Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.  

PubMed

The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc. PMID:18534944

Volovik, Grigory

2008-08-28

394

Multipartite maximally entangled states in symmetric scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We consider the class of (N+1)-partite states suitable for protocols where there is a powerful party, the authority, and the other N parties play the same role, namely, the state of their system lies in the symmetric Hilbert space. We show that, within this scenario, there is a “maximally entangled state” that can be transform by a local operations and classical communication protocol into any other state. In addition, we show how to use the protocol efficiently, including the construction of the state, and discuss security issues for possible applications to cryptographic protocols. As an immediate consequence we recover a sequential protocol that implements the 1-to-N symmetric cloning.

González-Guillén, Carlos E.

2012-08-01

395

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

2010-01-01

396

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.  

... 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

2014-01-01

397

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

... 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

2012-01-01

398

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

... 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

2011-01-01

399

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

... 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

2013-01-01

400

OPTIMIZING THE SCENARIO POSITIONS FOR ROBUST RADIATION THERAPY TREATMENT PLANNING  

E-print Network

Royal Institute of Technology October 10, 2012 Abstract Complex external beam radiation therapy and proton therapy. It does so by optimizing the scenario positions along predefined directions scenario positions. 1. Introduction In external beam radiation therapy, misalignment of the patient

Forsgren, Anders

401

Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951-2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961-2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950-2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

Wegehenkel, M.; Heinrich, U.; Jochheim, H.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Röber, B.

2010-08-01

402

Network Management Network Management  

E-print Network

"From Networks and Network Management into Services and Service Management". J. of Network ans System · Operation deals with keeping the network up (and the service provided by the network) · Administration ­ Network management ­ System management ­ Application management ­ Service management Network Management

403

75 FR 20942 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Removal of...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...of critical interspecies differences in urine composition. Saccharin...Evaluation of Waste Generation and Management Information for Saccharin...any risk from a plausible management scenario (e.g., disposal...the waste generation and management information for...

2010-04-22

404

75 FR 78918 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Removal of...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...of critical interspecies differences in urine composition...Evaluation of Waste Generation and Management Information for Saccharin...any risk from a plausible management scenario (e. g., disposal...assessment of waste generation and management information for...

2010-12-17

405

75 FR 36435 - Notice of Availability of the Draft Winnemucca District Resource Management Plan and...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...represents the current management of public lands within...reasonable, yet varying, management scenarios. The alternatives...D also incorporates sustainable development principles...and Visual Resource Management (VRM) Class II...three new ACECs: Pine Forest, Raised Bog and...

2010-06-25

406

76 FR 59156 - Notice of Availability of the Proposed Ironwood Forest National Monument Resource Management Plan...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...alternative represents current management of the Ironwood Forest National...reasonable, yet varying, management scenarios. The alternatives...from current BLM planning documents, including the Phoenix Resource Management Plan (1989),...

2011-09-23

407

47 CFR 17.17 - Existing structures.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2010-10-01 false Existing structures. 17.17 Section 17.17...MARKING, AND LIGHTING OF ANTENNA STRUCTURES Federal Aviation Administration...Criteria § 17.17 Existing structures. (a) The requirements...

2010-10-01

408

Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

2012-01-01

409

Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California  

E-print Network

Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California May 21.6.4 Alternative Scenario 3 ­ Patriotic Energy Independence Section 3: Developing the Scenario Model and Examining, 2002 by Rebecca Ghanadan rebeccag@socrates.berkeley.edu The Energy and Resources Group University

Kammen, Daniel M.

410

Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives

Rebecca Ghanadan; Jonathan G. Koomey

2005-01-01

411

Generic scenarios of the accelerating Universe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent astronomical observations strongly indicate that the current Universe is undergoing an accelerated phase of its expansion. If the Universe evolution is described by the FRW model then the acceleration should be driven by some perfect substance violating the strong energy condition. Hence the negative pressure is required for the explanation of acceleration. While different candidates for the fluid termed dark energy have been suggested, the positive cosmological constant seems to be the simplest candidate for dark energy description. However the Lambda term treated as a quantum vacuum energy has no simple physical interpretation because of the fine tuning problem. In this paper we characterize a certain class of evolutional scenario of the accelerating universe from the point of view genericity expressed in notion of structural stability. It is shown that in this class all evolutional scenarios with transient acceleration effect are not generic. Only the LCDM model with the acceleration phase following the deceleration phase is structurally stable. Because the cosmological models with transient acceleration appear in string theory we conclude that they are not generic.

Szyd?owski, Marek

2012-06-01

412

Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References  

SciTech Connect

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

2013-05-01

413

Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario  

SciTech Connect

The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the ''Nightmare scenario'' of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb{sup ?1} of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as ? 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.

Bertone, Gianfranco [Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Zürich, Winterthurerst. 190, 8057 Zürich, CH (Switzerland); Cumberbatch, Daniel [Astroparticle Theory and Cosmology Group, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Austri, Roberto Ruiz de [Instituto de Física Corpuscular, IFIC-UV/CSIC, Apartado 22085, E-46071 Valencia (Spain); Trotta, Roberto, E-mail: bertone@iap.fr, E-mail: d.cumberbatch@sheffield.ac.uk, E-mail: rruiz@ific.uv.es, E-mail: r.trotta@imperial.ac.uk [Astrophysics Group, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2012-01-01

414

ICRF Heating Scenarios for the Ignitor Machine  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An ICRF system with a large frequency range (70scenarios envisioned, and H minority heating at lower fields. A feasibility study shows the dependence of the power absorbed by the plasma species under various heating scenarios. Alternatives are proposed in order to improve heating performance. The effects of collisions in the redistribution of the absorbed power are considered. The 1-D, FLR, no-magnetic-shear approximation CARDS code has been adopted to evaluate the single pass power absorption rates for every choice of parameters. Additionally, the 2-D, FLR, reduced-order, no-magnetic-shear approximation SHOOT code, which solves the Fokker-Planck-Vlasov equation using Stix's formalism, has been utilized to study the effects of collisional damping during ICRF heating. Single pass absorption by ?-particles, including the effects of the magnetic shear as given by the 1-D, full-Bessel-functions code METS95, for the sake of completeness. Sponsored by ENEA, CNR, and ASP of Italy, and by the US DoE US DoE, Contract Number DE-AC02-76-CH03073

Riccitelli, M.; Coppi, B.; Phillips, C. K.; Majeski, R. P.; Wilson, J. R.; Smithe, D. N.; Vecchi, G.

1996-11-01

415

Interactive effects of changes in climate and management on yield and CO2 source/sink strength of grassland ecosystems in the Alps  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grassland farming (cutting for fodder and grazing) is the major agricultural practise in the European Alps, with grasslands covering >85% of the area of 75% of the municipalities. Climate change projections for this area, in particular increases in temperature and reductions in summer precipitation, are expected to influence grassland yields. Higher temperatures are thought to reduce snow cover duration and thus increase the period available for grassland growth and through more intensive management (more frequent cuttings and longer grazing periods) yields. In contrast, lower summer precipitation and associated reduced soil water availability is expected to negatively affect grassland growth and yields. Climate change and adaptations of grassland management in response to climate change are in turn expected to affect the carbon dioxide (CO2) source/sink strength of grassland ecosystems, thus providing feedback to climate change. Longer growing periods are expected to increase the sink activity, while summer soil water shortage and more frequent cutting or longer grazing are thought to decrease the sink strength for carbon dioxide. Here we report on a project, GrassClim, within which the interactive effects of changes in climate and management on grassland yield and the CO2 source/sink strength are investigated. To this end a process-oriented model of carbon cycling in a managed grassland ecosystem is forced with scenarios of regional climate change and associated changes in management. The latter are derived from questionnaires of farmers confronted with regional climate change scenarios. The grassland carbon cycling model is parameterised in a Bayesian framework using eddy covariance net ecosystem CO2 flux measurements and periodic analyses of the amount of above-ground plant matter from several grassland study sites in the Alps. In particular, we aim at answering the following questions:

  1. What are the management scenarios that result from the regional climate scenarios?
  2. How do management and climate scenarios, in isolation and combined, affect the yield and CO2 source/sink strength of grassland ecosystems?
  3. Do management strategies that optimise yield and the CO2 source/sink strength at the same time exist (so-called win-win situations)?
  4. How sensitive are yields and the CO2 source sink strength to projected climatic changes as opposed to changes in management and how do uncertainties inherent to both climate and management scenarios relate to uncertainties in predicted yields and the CO2 sink/strength of grassland ecosystems?

Irschick, C.; Carli, E.; Eliskases, C.; Frischmann, S.; Fritsch, U.; Gobiet, A.; Haas, J.; Kapelari, S.; Norz, J.; Themessl, M. J.; Zebisch, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.

2011-12-01

416

AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVE MANAGERS AND THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT  

Microsoft Academic Search

Managers of agricultural cooperatives were contacted to determine their knowledge\\/capabilities and perspectives of the cooperative environment with special emphasis given to the importance of cooperative principles to the operation and success of the business, division of responsibility between management and the board of directors, and business decision making in the areas of financial analysis plus selected scenarios. Managers showed strong

John L. Adrian Jr.; Thomas Wade Green

2001-01-01

417

An Intelligent Assistant for Public Transport Management  

E-print Network

An Intelligent Assistant for Public Transport Management Martin Molina Department of Artificial as an intelligent assistant for public transport management. The goal of the system is to help operators Intelligent Assistant Operator Fig. 1. Basic control scenario in public transport management. 2 The Problem

Molina, Martín

418

Published September 2010 Integrated Pest Management  

E-print Network

Integrated Pest Management Practice standard. Growers enrolled in the Environmental Quality IncentivesPublished September 2010 Integrated Pest Management The PAMS Approach Specific Integrated Pest Management (IPM) tactics are selected to match crop/pest/environment scenarios. Each site should have

Isaacs, Rufus

419

LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement  

SciTech Connect

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Household waste management of a new carbon neutral settlement. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer EASEWASTE as a LCA tool to compare different centralised and decentralised solutions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental benefit or close to zero impact in most of the categories. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Paper and metal recycling important for the outcome. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Discusses the challenges of waste prevention planning. - Abstract: When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues.

Slagstad, Helene, E-mail: helene.slagstad@ntn