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1

Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.  

SciTech Connect

A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

2008-08-01

2

Enrollment Management Study: Five Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…

Albers, James R.; Burns, James A.

3

Application of scenario technique in flood risk management.  

PubMed

It is now commonly accepted that the management of flood risks has to be fulfilled within an integrated framework. About two decades ago flood risk was managed from a limited perspective predominantly by means of structural measures aimed at flood control. In contrast integrated flood risk management incorporates the complete management cycle consisting of the phases prevention, protection and preparedness. In theory it is a well described concept. In the stage of implementation, however, there is often a lack of support although a consistent policy framework exists. Consequently, the degree of implementation must be rated as inadequate in many cases. In particular this refers to the elements which focus on preparedness and prevention. The study to which this paper refers emphasises the means and potentials of scenario technique to foster the implementation of potentially appropriate measures and new societal arrangements when applied in the framework of integrated flood risk management. A literature review is carried out to reveal the state-of-the-art and the specific problem framework within which scenario technique is generally being applied. Subsequently, it is demonstrated that scenario technique is transferable to a policy making process in flood risk management that is integrated, sustainable and interactive. The study concludes with a recommendation for three applications in which the implementation of measures of flood damage prevention and preparedness is supported by scenario technique. PMID:17851209

Winterscheid, A

2007-01-01

4

Controlling transboundary wildlife damage: modeling under alternative management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The migratory nature of nuisance wildlife populations creates a special management problem by imposing a negative diffusion externality on landowners undertaking control efforts. This paper reviews three cost-minimizing wildlife-control models, each internalizing the diffusion externality under different management scenarios, namely, unilateral management, bilateral management, and centralized management. The three management scenarios lead to different optimal behaviors. Property owners exerting unilateral

Mahadev G. Bhat; Ray G. Huffaker; Suzanne M. Lenhart

1996-01-01

5

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario studies, links to other scenario studies, a forum for discussion on scenarios, a depository on scenario development publications, and a suggested scenario glossary.

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

6

[Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].  

PubMed

This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

2012-06-01

7

Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.  

PubMed

This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507

Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

2006-04-01

8

Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools  

E-print Network

INTERACTIVE GRAPHICAL TIMELINES AS COLLABORATIVE SCENARIO MANAGEMENT TOOLS A Thesis by AUSTIN CHRISTOPHER RIDDLE Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment... of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2008 Major Subject: Computer Science INTERACTIVE GRAPHICAL TIMELINES AS COLLABORATIVE SCENARIO MANAGEMENT TOOLS A Thesis by AUSTIN CHRISTOPHER RIDDLE Submitted to the Office...

Riddle, Austin Christopher

2008-10-10

9

Modeling of common radio resource management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we first present a systematic view on common radio resource management (CRRM) problems. Then we classify different CRRM levels and propose a categorization framework for CRRM algorithms based on their relationship to load sharing strategies. The proposed model framework based on this systematic view enables a cost-benefit analysis of different CRRM algorithms and architectures. Different centralized or

Andreas Pillekeit; Fariborz Derakhshan; Bruno Müller-clostermann

2007-01-01

10

The Challenge of Managing Climate Vulnerability: From Apps to Scenario Caspar Ammann, NCAR-RAL-CSAP  

E-print Network

The Challenge of Managing Climate Vulnerability: From Apps to Scenario Theaters Caspar Ammann, NCAR. Focusing on individual applications (hot-spots), the request is often to develop "an-app. Unfortunately, simple solutions hardly ever exist. Rather, individual "apps" are generally compressions

Miami, University of

11

Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.  

PubMed

Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153

Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

2013-05-01

12

Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots  

E-print Network

.stormont@aggiemail.usu.edu; vicki.allan@usu.edu Abstract-- Disaster areas are one of the most challenging environments faced1 Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots Daniel P. Stormont and Vicki H. Allan. Prepositioned autonomous rescue robots offer promise in assisting the first responders to a disaster site

Allan, Vicki H.

13

Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots  

E-print Network

.stormont@aggiemail.usu.edu; vicki.allan@usu.edu Abstract-- Disaster areas are one of the most challenging environments facedManaging Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots Daniel P. Stormont and Vicki H. Allan. Prepositioned autonomous rescue robots offer promise in assisting the first responders to a disaster site

Allan, Vicki H.

14

AVERAGING OF DISPERSION-MANAGED SOLITONS: EXISTENCE AND STABILITY  

E-print Network

AVERAGING OF DISPERSION-MANAGED SOLITONS: EXISTENCE AND STABILITY DMITRY E. PELINOVSKY AND VADIM­776 Abstract. We consider existence and stability of dispersion-managed solitons in the two ap- proximations of the periodic nonlinear Schr¨odinger (NLS) equation: (i) a dynamical system for a Gaussian pulse and (ii

Zharnitsky, Vadim

15

An optimization scenario methodology for bank asset liability management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Asset-liability management is one of the most important issues in bank strategic planning. This study presents an ALM methodology\\u000a in a stochastic interest-rate environment. The intention is to develop an optimization tool for interest rate scenarios and\\u000a to determine the optimal balance among profitability, risk, liquidity and other uncertainties by considering several goals,\\u000a such as the maximization of returns, the

Kosmidou Kyriaki; Constantin Zopounidis

2002-01-01

16

Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

2010-12-01

17

Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario  

SciTech Connect

The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool - Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Sardini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano (Italy)

2012-07-01

18

Agricultural water management scenarios to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In this work we combine different tools to evaluate impact of water management scenarios in an agricultural basin. Here we first develop a spatio-temporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. In a second step, the water budget model is used to provide recharge and pumping values for each field as input for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2005. Results of the simulations obtained by means of the simple coupled soil water budget model/analytical model have been used to select and design with the engagement of stakeholders feasible management scenarios. The latter have been implemented in the numerical groundwater model. Results and insights from both modelling approaches are discussed. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations obtained with the two approaches suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance - stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site specific feasibility studies. The further implementation of the management scenarios into the numerical groundwater model provides details on the local impact of the results and more insights about specific data collection and needed infrastructures in order to practically develop the management scenarios.

Foglia, Laura; Harter, Thomas

2014-05-01

19

Practical Tips for Managing Challenging Scenarios in Undergraduate Research  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Mathematical Association of America (MAA) has been involved in a number of new initiatives as of late, and one such project is the "Resources for Undergraduate Research". This series brings together topical information on new research methods and strategies for working with undergraduate students on a number of mathematical endeavors. This particular paper looks at how to best manage different scenarios that might arise during the research advising process. Authored by Sarah Adams and Darren A. Narayan, this document is based on solutions discussed by a group of faculty members that participated in the 2008 Center for Undergraduate Research in Mathematics Workshop. The five-page document discusses five specific scenarios that might occur (including what might be done if a student tends to dominate or control a group project) and offers some specific and concrete solutions to such difficulties. The scenarios discussed could occur in more than just college math classrooms, so this document is broadly relevant for many groups of educators.

Bailey, Brad

2009-01-01

20

Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

2011-01-01

21

Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.  

PubMed

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

22

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades  

PubMed Central

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

23

Scenario-based decision making in water resource management: A case study in the Yellow River Delta  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decision making in water resource management encounters difficulties due to uncertainties about the future. Scenarios are useful to explore uncertainties and inform decision makers to take actions. Scenarios are originally used to describe the future states in the form of storylines. These are then supplemented with numerical information from model predictions and expert judgement. Probabilities are attached to scenarios to encourage the specific explanation of the assumptions and expectations behind the storylines, and communicate the possibility of each scenario. Bayesian probability offers a prior probability on the basis of available knowledge and beliefs at the presence of uncertainties, and allows for updating to the posterior probability as new evidence arises. Bayesian rules are also applicable for decision making given the existing probabilistic scenarios. Decisions can be ranked according to their performance on the utility function given each possible scenario. A case study is provided to find an optimal solution to alleviate the water stress problem in the Yellow River Delta for the next 30 years. Scenarios of water availability and water demand are developed for the planning period. In order to make decisions rationally, cost-benefit analysis is used to evaluate the performance of viable decisions given the probabilistic scenarios. Key word: Scenarios, Water Management, Uncertainty, Decision making, Bayesian approach

Dong, Congli; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2013-04-01

24

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling  

PubMed Central

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-01-01

25

Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.  

PubMed

Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the corresponding system patterns in terms of the proposed architecture, and make this concrete by presenting some comprehensive interaction examples as comic strip stories. Next, we discuss the implementation requirements and how they can be met with the available technologies, discuss a possible architecture, refine it in the concrete case of the TuCSoN coordination technology, present a subsystem prototype and discuss its properties in the Butlers perspective. PMID:24555169

Denti, Enrico

2014-01-01

26

E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.  

PubMed

Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed. PMID:20151189

Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T

2011-01-01

27

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario

Theo J. B. M. Postma; Franz Liebl

2005-01-01

28

A hybrid simulation\\/optimisation scenario model for asset\\/liability management  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we desciibe a decision support model to sustain management of pension-funds in the strategic planning of the available asset- and liability policy instruments. A main characteristic of the approach is that the relevant risk-drivers are modelled by scenarios, rather than by probability distributions. We will describe the scenario generation methodology, and how the scenarios are used by

Guus C. E. Boender

1997-01-01

29

A DSS for water resources management under uncertainty by scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Abstract: In this paper we present a scenario analysis approach to perform water system planning and management under climatic and hydrological uncertainty friendly data - input phase and results analysis Different generation techniques can be used to set up and analyze a number of scenarios modeled by a scenario - tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations

Stefano Pallottino; Giovanni M. Sechi; Paola Zuddas

2005-01-01

30

Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example  

SciTech Connect

This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

2011-12-01

31

Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.  

PubMed

Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites. PMID:18262405

Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

2008-01-01

32

Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus  

SciTech Connect

Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites.

Rousis, K.; Moustakas, K. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Chemical Engineering, Unit of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, Heroon Polytechniou St., Zographou Campus, P.C. 15773 Athens (Greece); Malamis, S. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Chemical Engineering, Unit of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, Heroon Polytechniou St., Zographou Campus, P.C. 15773 Athens (Greece)], E-mail: smalamis@central.ntua.gr; Papadopoulos, A.; Loizidou, M. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Chemical Engineering, Unit of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, Heroon Polytechniou St., Zographou Campus, P.C. 15773 Athens (Greece)

2008-07-01

33

The future water environment - Using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.  

PubMed

Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps. PMID:25638653

Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

2015-04-15

34

Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable Document Format file.

Banta, Edward R.

2014-01-01

35

The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.  

PubMed

The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

2013-12-01

36

Scenario Generation and Stochastic Programming Models for Asset Liability Management  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we develop and test scenario generation methods for asset liability managementmodels. We propose a multi-stage stochastic programming model for a Dutch pension fund. Bothrandomly sampled event trees and event trees fitting the mean and the covariance of the returndistribution are used for generating the coefficients of the stochastic program. In order to investigatethe performance of the model

Roy Kouwenberg

1998-01-01

37

Scientific and technological uncertainty, the precautionary principle, scenarios and risk management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Uncertainty, the precautionary principle and scenario are three important concepts in current regulatory debates concerned with risk management. In this paper, each concept is described in relation to its regulatory context and a linkage between the three concepts is established. Three scenarios relating to increasing scientific and technical uncertainty are presented. The most obvious regulatory approach to uncertainty is to

Michael D. Rogers

2001-01-01

38

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY  

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

39

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

40

Generating interest rate scenarios for bank asset liability management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Over the last years the Second European Directive on Banking and Financial services demand that financial institutions develop\\u000a asset liability management tools to identify and measure the various financial risks they encounter. The present paper develops\\u000a a goal programming ALM model with a simulation analysis, to assist a commercial bank in managing its exposure to interest\\u000a rate risk taking into

Kosmidou Kyriaki; Constantin Zopounidis

2008-01-01

41

Communication and coordination support in ad hoc networks for emergency management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In recent years the world has witnessed many catastrophic events where the intervention of first responders was required to manage massive disaster scenarios. To be effective, emergency management teams must be able to coordinate and communicate efficiently. To the best of our knowledge no solution has been proposed to support the communication and coordination of these teams in an integrated

José Mocito; Luís Rodrigues; Hugo Miranda

2010-01-01

42

Organizational justice and conflict management styles : Teaching notes, role playing instructions, and scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this article is to provide a set of role playing exercises for teachers that demonstrates to their students the relationship between organizational justice and conflict management. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The objectives are achieved by presenting two scenarios that illustrate a manager who conducts a performance review and is highly sensitive to organizational justice issues and a

B. Charles Tatum; Richard J. Eberlin

2006-01-01

43

Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

Vajk, J. P.

1978-01-01

44

A framework for assessing integrated water and energy management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water and energy management strategies in Australia have undergone un- precedented change over the last two decades, as a result of reforms initi- ated by State and Federal governments. These reforms brought about changes to the structure, ownership and regulatory arrangements of the sectors. While the dominant focus of reform has been economic, devel- opments in the recent past, for

Debborah Marsh; Deepak Sharma

45

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

46

E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications  

Microsoft Academic Search

Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players,\\u000a refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains\\u000a many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various\\u000a organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries

Sushant B. Wath; P. S. Dutt; T. Chakrabarti

2011-01-01

47

Privatising the governance and management of existing urban neighbourhoods  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the idea of transplanting the institution of homeowner associations or similar to existing urban neighbourhoods in order to correct imbalances in patterns of incentives and responsibilities that threaten the liveability and sustainability of cities. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The paper compares a recent published proposal for privatising existing neighbourhoods with the current

Chien-Yuan Chen; Chris Webster

2006-01-01

48

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.  

PubMed

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

49

Facilitating Adaptive Water Management Planning Using Scenarios That Illuminate Vulnerabilities (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fast changing and hard-to-predict future supply, demand, technology, regulatory, and other conditions present water managers with significant planning challenges. Adaptive plans, ones designed to evolve over time in response to new information, represent an obvious solution in principle, but are often to develop and implement in practice. This talk will describe the use analytic methods to facilitate the development of scenarios as part of a decision support process that leads to the development of adaptive water management plans. The scenarios are chosen to illuminate the vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, provide concise summaries of the future states of the world in which a proposed policy would fail to meet its goals. Such scenarios emerge from a decision support process that begins with a proposed policy, seeks to understand the conditions under which it would fail, and then uses this information to identify and evaluate potential alternative policies that are robust over a wide range of future conditions. Statistical cluster analyses applied to databases of simulation model results can help identify scenarios as part of this process. This talk will describe efforts to evaluate the ability of such scenarios to effectively communicate decision-relevant information, and describe how water management agencies have used them to develop robust, adaptive plans.

Lempert, R. J.

2013-12-01

50

Schools without Principals: Do Both Management and Leadership Exist?  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Studied an elementary school in Casper, Wyoming, that functions without a principal. Each of the identified responsibilities of the principal is assigned to one or two individuals. Teacher teams appear to handle management responsibilities rather successfully, but are not addressing many of the leadership responsibilities of building principals.…

Creighton, Theodore B.

1999-01-01

51

How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

2012-01-01

52

A Demand-Side Management Experience in Existing Building Commissioning  

E-print Network

As part of a suite of demand-side management (DSM) program offerings, Xcel Energy provides a recommissioning program to its Colorado commercial customers. The program has a summer peak-demand savings goal of 7.8 MW to be achieved by 2005. Commenced...

Franconi, E.; Selch, M.; Bradford, J.; Gruen, B.

2003-01-01

53

Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power generation management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. They describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model

L. F. Escudero; J. L. de la Fuente; C. Garcia; F. J. Prieto

1996-01-01

54

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed value. However, this cost was minimal when local conservation actions were part of a concerted coast-wide plan. The simulations demonstrate the utility of using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model within NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, by illustrating an end-to-end modeling tool that allows consideration of multiple management alternatives that are relevant to numerous state, federal and private interests.

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

55

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.  

PubMed

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions. PMID:18488629

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

56

Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target species, facilitating the development of control measures to achieve a healthy balance between stock exploitation and socio-economic factors.

Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celi?, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgo?, Nedo; Isajlovi?, Igor; Mar?eta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

2014-05-01

57

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.  

PubMed

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

58

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident  

PubMed Central

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

59

Learning from a History of Futures: 60 Years of Scenario use for Water Management in the Netherlands  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios for developing water management strategies. Based on a review of six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, we describe how scenario analysis in water policy studies evolved. We analyzed to what extent the use of scenarios in water management in the Netherlands has enabled robust decision making under uncertainty, and whether it has resulted in a learning process for water management. We found that the potential for robust decisionmaking increased, while the use of scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. This was reflected in several paradigm shifts that have occurred in the past decades: a) from flood control to integrated water management, b) from predicting to exploring the future with integrated scenarios and, c) from resisting water to accommodating and adapting to water. We conclude that scenarios proved to be useful for decisionmaking on water management under uncertainty, although the scenario approach is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty. New scenario approaches are emerging that deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are facing nowadays.

Middelkoop, H.; Haasnoot, M.

2012-04-01

60

Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget  

Microsoft Academic Search

Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of forests are included in the analysis. Two forest management and climate scenarios were applied.

Timo Karjalainen; Ari Pussinen; Jari Liski; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Thies Eggers; Tuija Lapveteläinen; Terhi Kaipainen

2003-01-01

61

Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management  

PubMed Central

Objective To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists’ confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. Results In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusions Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way. PMID:24644524

Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; LeMay, Kate; Armour, Carol L.

62

Modeling shrub encroachment in subalpine grasslands under different environmental and management scenarios.  

PubMed

Woody plants are spreading in many alpine and subalpine ecosystems and are expected to continue increasing in response to land abandonment and global warming. This encroachment threatens species diversity, and considerable efforts have been deployed to control it. In this study, we combined a lattice model and field data to investigate the efficiency of different management strategies in controlling shrub encroachment in alpine grasslands. The model parameter values were estimated in the field based on the thorny shrub Echinospartum horridum (erizón) which is currently encroaching in central Spanish Pyrenees. Our study shows that encroachment could accelerate if climate warming continues. Different management scenarios consisting of a gradient of livestock pressures, fire events and mechanical removal were simulated to identify scenarios able to control the expansion of shrubs into grasslands. Our study shows that grazing alone cannot stop encroachment. Rather, a combination of grazing and shrub removal (either by fire or mechanical removal) is needed, and our model can help estimate the frequency and intensities of the shrub removal. This model can be used to investigate the consequences of different management scenarios and environmental variability which could be of practical value in the preservation of alpine grasslands. PMID:23542214

Komac, B; Kefi, S; Nuche, P; Escós, J; Alados, C L

2013-05-30

63

Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management  

PubMed Central

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-01-01

64

Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.  

PubMed

Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. PMID:25617786

Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

2015-03-15

65

EMI Risk Management with the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

EMI risk assessment is a process for identifying, analyzing, and developing mitigation strategies for risks caused by electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The EMI risk assessment incorporates risk analysis and risk management, i.e., it combines systematic processes for risk identification, and evaluation, and how to deal with these risks. This chapter introduces a novel methodology for EMI risk assessment at system level, the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (TSECA). The TSECA is based on the general principle of the well-established Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), which has been modified to include.

Sabath, F.

66

Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision making.

Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

67

Impact of peatland drainage and restoration on esker groundwater resources: modeling future scenarios for management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esker aquifers are common groundwater bodies in Europe. Management of these aquifers should take account of the sustainability of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and land use in an integrated way. An unconfined esker aquifer in northern Finland was modelled with MODFLOW to determine how groundwater resources are impacted by the surrounding peatland drainage scheme and to simulate scenarios for possible drainage restoration. The impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change were also simulated. A calibration-constrained Monte Carlo method was used to provide information on the uncertainties associated with model predictions. The results suggest that peatland drainage in the vicinity of eskers can have a significant role in lowering the water table, even though climate variability may mask these impacts. Drainage restoration by filling the ditches might have positive impacts on the aquifer water levels. Comparison of water-table changes caused by peatland drainage with the changes brought by water abstraction and climate variability helped to quantify impacts of different land-use scenarios and facilitated discussion with the local stakeholders. Based on this study, more attention should be devoted to peatland drainage schemes in integrated groundwater management of esker aquifers.

Rossi, Pekka M.; Ala-aho, Pertti; Doherty, John; Kløve, Bjørn

2014-08-01

68

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data  

PubMed Central

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making. PMID:21214905

2011-01-01

69

Groundwater artificial recharge solutions for integrated management of watersheds and aquifer systems under extreme drought scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The paper addresses groundwater artificial recharge solutions for integrated management of watersheds and aquifer systems under extreme drought scenarios. The conceptual idea of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) is considered as one of the scientific based solutions towards scientific based mitigation measures to climate variability and change in many parts of the world. In Portugal two European Union sponsored 6th Framework Programme for Research Projects have been addressing this topic, namely GABARDINE Project on "Groundwater artificial recharge based on alternative sources of water: Advanced integrated technologies and management" and the Coordinated Action ASEMWATERNet, a "Multi-Stakeholder Platform for ASEM S&T Cooperation on Sustainable Water Use". An application of Aquifer Storage and Recovery methodologies aiming drought mitigation and Integrated Water Resource Management of the Algarve (Portugal). The technique of artificial recharge of groundwater is used in many parts of the world with several aims, e.g. water storing in appropriate aquifers for the mitigation of future water needs during droughts or as protection against pollution or even for the recovery of groundwater quality. Artificial recharge of the aquifer systems of Campina de Faro and Silves-Querença is addressed in this paper, proposed to be an alternative to decrease the vulnerability of the Algarve to a future drought. Integrated management of water resources in the Algarve is not a clear issue since the last decade, when groundwater resources that supplied almost all water needs, have been drastically replaced by surface water stored in new reservoirs.

Lobo-Ferreira, Joao-Paulo; Oliveira, Luís.; Diamantino, Catarina

2010-05-01

70

Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains  

PubMed Central

Background Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. PMID:17650336

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Loveland, Thomas R

2007-01-01

71

Assessment of carbon stores in tree biomass for two management scenarios in Russia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate quantification of terrestrial carbon storage and its change is of key importance to improved understanding of global carbon dynamics. Forest management influences carbon sequestration and release patterns, and gap models are well suited for evaluating carbon storage. An individual-based gap model of forest dynamics, FAREAST, is applied across Russia to estimate aboveground carbon storage under management scenarios. Current biomass from inventoried forests across Russia is compared to model-based estimates and potential levels of biomass are estimated for a set of simplified forestry practices. Current carbon storage in eastern Russia was lower than for the northwest and south, and lower than model estimates likely due to high rates of disturbance. Model-derived carbon storage in all regions was not significantly different between the simulated ‘current’ and hypothetical ‘even-aged’ management strategies using rotations of 150 and 210 years. Simulations allowing natural maturation and harvest after 150 years show a significant increase in aboveground carbon in all regions. However, it is unlikely that forests would be left unharvested to 150 years of age to attain this condition. These applications indicate the value of stand simulators, applied over broad regions such as Russia, as tools to evaluate the effect of management regimes on aboveground carbon storage.

Shuman, Jacquelyn K.; Shugart, Herman H.; Krankina, Olga N.

2013-12-01

72

Paper published in Agricultural Water Management, 2013, vol. 130, p. 103-112 (author's version) Combining scenario workshops with modeling  

E-print Network

Paper published in Agricultural Water Management, 2013, vol. 130, p. 103-112 (author's version related to the development of long term future agricultural water demand scenarios. We present the results manuscript, published in "Agricultural Water Management 130 (2013) p. 103 - p. 112" DOI : 10.1016/j

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

73

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

Barbara C. Wales; Lowell H. Suring; Miles A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

74

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

Barbara C. Wales; Miles A. HemstromC

75

Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced that feed the watershed management model under different sensitivity scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Vulnerability is observed on the produced base flows of the moorlands ecosystem due to a decrease in moorlands' area and to climate variability-related impacts during the 50 years of simulation. This system-level vulnerability has significant effects on the water supply available for downstream demand sites, including rural and agricultural users that rely exclusively on a reservoir.

Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.

2013-12-01

76

Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation  

SciTech Connect

The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems and uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. This approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The code have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Fuente, J.L. de la [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain); Prieto, F.J. [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Statistics and Econometrics

1995-12-31

77

Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation  

SciTech Connect

The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Fuente, J.L. de la [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain); Prieto, F.J. [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain)] [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain)

1996-05-01

78

A Study on Energy Management Contracting Pattern in Existing Building Energy Conservation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The chief object of the present study is to demonstrate and the characters and functions of Energy Management Contracting (EMC) in existing building energy conservation. According to the top topics of energy conservation and sustainable development, the patterns of EMC in building energy conservation were analyzed. The main technical measures for building facilities energy conservation were introduced, and a case

Wei Cai; Xiaodong Wen; Wei Gu

2010-01-01

79

PCM Climate Change Scenario Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper explores the water resources impacts associated with climate change scenarios produced by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin (the Central Valley - CV) in California. Three transient climate ensembles from the PCM are used as inputs to a distributed macroscale hydrology model to produce daily transient streamflow scenarios throughout the two basins for the period 1998-2048. Water resource simulation models are then used to predict, on a monthly time-step, the effects of the climate change scenarios on streamflow timing and volume. In the strongly snowmelt dominated CRB, water resources impacts are associated primarily with changes in precipitation volumes (and secondarily by relatively small temperature changes) that reduce summer water supplies via reductions in winter snowpack. A one-month shift in the hydrologic peak endangers storage efficiencies for the CRB, which currently lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate winter flows in normal years. The shift exacerbates allocation problems during the late summer and early fall, while complicating the management of the flood season. Agricultural withdrawals, hydropower generation and federally-mandated streamflow requirements are threatened. In the CV, the climate change scenario temperature changes are larger than in the CRB, and the CV is affected more equally by changes in temperature and precipitation than is the CRB. Since water allocations in the CV are strongly dominated by irrigation, overall system reliability is reduced by the resulting streamflow timing and shifts and volume changes. The northern half of the CV experiences the greatest loss of snowpack, hence summer streamflows, when temperatures warm. Since the reservoirs in the northern portion of the CV serve agricultural, municipal, and industrial surface water needs for the entire region, even subtle shifts in streamflow timing and volume under current operational strategies pose severe problems. The predicted changes in future streamflows under climate change conditions will decrease reliability for hydropower generation, water supply, releases for fisheries support and flood control. To address these concerns in the CRB and CV, a series of operational alternatives are developed that mitigate future economic, hydropower and environmental impacts on the system. >http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~palmer/ACPI/home.htm

Palmer, R. N.; Van Rheenen, N. T.; Payne, J. T.; Hamlet, A. F.; Wood, A. W.

2001-12-01

80

Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation campaign and the beginning of next year water allocation negotiation processes. From the evolution of the risk profile of the system along the time we can define more approximately the current drought scenario. We applied the methodology presented to the Orbigo River Basin in Spain with promising results.

Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

2014-05-01

81

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

82

Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, T.R.

2007-01-01

83

Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.  

PubMed

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

2013-10-15

84

Using reconstructed streamflow time-series to develop operational scenarios for near-future water management in Tasmania  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water resources management requires balancing a wide range of competing social, environmental, and economic demands. The development of realistic management scenarios often depends on limited data with multiple uncertainties. In Tasmania, southeastern Australia, the lack of long-term streamflow time-series reduces confidence in decision-making for water resources management. The longest time-series of measured river flow covers ~70 years, but most monitoring sites have only been operational for <40 years. Here we present a preliminary streamflow reconstruction from a tree-ring wood properties chronology that extends the streamflow record for the second largest catchment in Tasmania by ~500 years. We then consider several analytical approaches to incorporating this reconstruction into water management tools and processes. In particular, we focus on characterising the uncertainties in the streamflow reconstruction to provide a context for droughts and floods in the observational record and ensure adequate coverage of potential future variability in our water management scenarios.

Baker, Patrick; Allie, Stuart; Parkyn, Roger; Allen, Kathy; Goddard, Michael; Ling, Fiona; Cook, Edward

2013-04-01

85

Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

2011-12-01

86

Childhood exposure to DEHP, DBP and BBP under existing chemical management systems: a comparative study of sources of childhood exposure in Korea and in Denmark.  

PubMed

In this paper, the cumulative risks of Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), Di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), and Benzyl-butyl phthalate (BBP) to 2-year-old children in two countries: one European (Denmark) and one Asian (South Korea) were compared. Denmark does not produce phthalates as a raw material, while Korea produces more than 0.4milliontons of the three above-mentioned phthalates each year. First, a comparative review of the existing phthalate regulations in the two countries was performed. Next, the level of childhood phthalate exposure from environmental and food sources was estimated using an exposure scenario approach. Then, the scenario based exposure level was compared with back-calculated exposure levels based on biomonitored urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations. The result verifies the existence of varying territorial human background exposure levels and the gap between exposure estimations based on exposure modeling and biomonitoring data. Cumulative childhood risk levels in Denmark were lower than in Korea. For both countries, risk levels from back calculation were higher than those from scenario estimation. The median cumulative risk levels from scenario estimation and back calculation respectively were 0.24 and up to 0.5 in Denmark while 0.52 and up to 0.95 in Korea. Food and indoor dust were the main exposure sources for all three phthalates. In order to protect human health from cumulative risks of these phthalates, the exposure scenarios in existing regulations such as the EU REACH need to be strengthened. Moreover, based on the contributions from different exposure sources, national specific risk management tools need to be developed and strengthened, applying a systemic approach to promote sustainable material flows. PMID:24270398

Lee, Jihyun; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Kim, Chan-Kook; Thomsen, Marianne

2014-02-01

87

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed VWRS model will account for the blue water component of the system (water taken from the rivers and reservoirs) as well as the green water (soil water used by agriculture), and track water-dependent products and services (energy, mining, crops, and industrial products). The system dynamics approach is used as a simulation environment for constructing the VWRS model due to its ability to accommodate hydrological and non-hydrological variables in one modeling platform. A set of scenarios representing various levels of water availability, combined with a set of various priorities of water uses, will be considered and tested. The scenarios will be evaluated with regard to the overall value of water use. The findings will be used to develop water value-based allocation priorities and reservoir operating rules. This novel modeling tool and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying virtual and value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. In this paper, the first and tentative version of the VWRS model is presented and applied to the Saskatchewan portion of the SSRB. Various scenarios of changes of the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan will be considered and tested to validate the VWRS model.

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

88

Spaced Scenario Demonstrations Improve Knowledge and Confidence in Pediatric Acute Illness Management  

PubMed Central

Objectives: Nationally accredited simulation courses such as advance pediatric life support and pediatric advance life support are recommended for health care professionals (HCPs) at two yearly intervals as a minimum requirement, despite literature evidence suggesting rapid decline in knowledge shortly after course completion. The objective of this study was to evaluate an observation-based, educational intervention program aimed at improving previously acquired knowledge and confidence in managing critical illnesses. Methods: A prospective cohort longitudinal study was conducted over a 6-month period. Participants were assessed with a knowledge based questionnaire immediately prior to and after observing 12 fortnightly critical illness scenario demonstrations (CISDs). The outcome measure was performance on questionnaires. Regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders. Questionnaire practice effect was evaluated on 30 independent HCPs not exposed to the CISDs. Results: Fifty-four HCPs (40 doctors and 14 nurses) participated in the study. All participants had previously attended nationally accredited simulation courses with a mean time since last attendance of 1.8?±?0.4?years. The median number of attendances at CISD was 6 (2–12). The mean questionnaire scores at baseline (17.2/25) were significantly lower than the mean post intervention questionnaire scores (20.3/25), p?=?0.003. The HCPs self-rated confidence in managing CISD was 6.5 times higher at the end of the program in the intervention group (p?=?0.002) than at baseline. There was no practice effect for questionnaires demonstrated in the independent sample. Conclusion: The educational intervention program significantly improved the knowledge and confidence of the participants in managing pediatric critical illnesses. The CISD program provides an inexpensive, practical, and time effective method of facilitating knowledge acquisition and retention. Despite the distinctively different approach, this study has shown the effectiveness of the participant being an observer to enhance pediatric resuscitation skills. PMID:25505780

Ojha, Rahul; Liu, Anthony; Champion, Bernard Linton; Hibbert, Emily; Nanan, Ralph Kay Heinrich

2014-01-01

89

Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

2013-01-01

90

Optimizing irrigation management using CropSyst: Solving water allocation problems under Climate Change scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irrigation is fundamental to achieve economically viable yields in Mediterranean and semi-arid areas. Under normal conditions, irrigation systems are designed considering unlimited water supply and in many cases operated at relatively low marginal costs. Total satisfaction of plant water demands is seen as the main objective to maximize crop productivity. This paradigm is currently challenged by higher pressure on water resources as a consequence of economic and population growth, increasing exposure to impacts associated to droughts. In addition, future climate projections for these regions show likely increase in temperature and significant reductions in precipitation that will affect snowmelt dynamics and streamflows. This new scenario requires an efficient management of water resources at all levels, and especially to explore irrigation alternatives to maximize productivity with limited water resources. Crop Simulation models can become a very attractive tool to evaluate ex ante the results of different irrigation strategies. In this study, we used CropSyst to simulate the responses of maize as function of multiple combinations of monthly irrigation decisions. We generated six irrigation treatments that represented a range from 100% to 50% irrigation water demands. Each treatment was evaluated using a series of daily climate in the basin of Limari, Chile. Model results showed that crop productivity can be improved when compared to standard irrigation practices that consider constant irrigation reductions proportional to expected decreases in water availability.

Meza, F. J.; Maureira, F.; Stockle, C.

2012-12-01

91

A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil  

PubMed Central

Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process. PMID:23311826

2013-01-01

92

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

93

Applying waste management scenarios in the Peloponnese Region in Greece: a critical analysis in the frame of life cycle assessment.  

PubMed

The aim of this paper is to apply life cycle assessment in the waste management sector, in order to compare the environmental performance of different waste management methods. The methods that are studied are: landfilling, aerobic and anaerobic biological treatment, incineration and recycling, focusing on mass and energy balances and the environmental performance of each applied scenario. The Peloponnese Region in Greece was selected as a case for the application of this methodology and more specifically its largest municipalities, where a significant amount of waste is presented. The conducted LCA study proves the necessity of the adoption of an integrated waste management system and indicates its principal objectives by measuring environmental impacts. Thermal scenario contributes significant to the mitigation on the Greenhouse Gases. On the other hand, separation at source and recycling practices provides significant benefits to the abiotic depletion impact. PMID:22961485

Antonopoulos, I-S; Karagiannidis, A; Tsatsarelis, T; Perkoulidis, G

2013-04-01

94

Tools for primary care management of inflammatory bowel disease: Do they exist?  

PubMed Central

Healthcare systems throughout the world continue to face emerging challenges associated with chronic disease management. Due to the likely increase in chronic conditions in the future it is now vital that cooperation and support between specialists, generalists and primary health care physicians is conducted. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is one such chronic disease. Despite specialist care being essential, much IBD care could and probably should be delivered in primary care with continued collaboration between all stakeholders. Whilst most primary care physicians only have few patients currently affected by IBD in their caseload, the proportion of patients with IBD-related healthcare issues cared for in the primary care setting appears to be widespread. Data suggests however, that primary care physician’s IBD knowledge and comfort in management is suboptimal. Current treatment guidelines for IBD are helpful but they are not designed for the primary care setting. Few non-expert IBD management tools or guidelines exist compared with those used for other chronic diseases such as asthma and scant data have been published regarding the usefulness of such tools including IBD action plans and associated supportive literature. The purpose of this review is to investigate what non-specialist tools, action plans or guidelines for IBD are published in readily searchable medical literature and compare these to those which exist for other chronic conditions.

Bennett, Alice L; Munkholm, Pia; Andrews, Jane M

2015-01-01

95

Use of narrative scenarios for evaluating drought management responses in the Upper Colorado River Basin (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drought and water scarcity are already recurrent features of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Climate model projections (such as CMIP3 and CMIP5) show large uncertainty in future precipitation and river flow for the region. However, there is consensus amongst the models that air temperatures will rise, implying earlier and shorter melt seasons, increased risk of wildfire, outbreak of mountain pine beetle die back, and changing in-stream habitat over coming decades. Hence, future water supply and demand planning must be sufficiently flexible to accommodate multiple, uncertain, and interacting stressors on the water system. This paper describes a decision-centered approach for evaluating drought management options under changed climate conditions, taking into account other co-stressors. The framework comprises three main elements: 1) a model of the water collection and rights system; 2) adaptation options for maintaining overall water for supply; and 3) plausible narratives of future conditions for stress-testing the system/option set configuration. We demonstrate our approach using the Colorado River to Glenwood Springs as a case study. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was selected as a parsimonious tool for rapid appraisal of the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA) under various narrative scenarios. The SCRA allows relaxation of a senior water right at Shoshone power plant when upstream reservoir storage is forecast to be below 80% and April-July flow in the Colorado is expected to be less than 85% of average. An extended call relaxation may be triggered when a domestic lawn water ban has been invoked by the Denver Board of Water Commissioners. These measures are designed to enable capture of more spring melt to maintain overall volumetric water entitlements regardless of climate variability and change. The SCRA was assessed in terms of frequency of trigger conditions, volume of water stored, and amount of water that is potentially harvested by varying the window of the call relaxation period. Stress tests were applied using combinations of higher air temperatures, single and multi-season precipitation anomalies, partial burn or die back of forest areas in headwater basins, and dust on snowpack events. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were informed by evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions, climate model experiments, and regional downscaling. WEAP parameters were adjusted in transparent and physically plausible ways to represent the effects of indirect climate stressors. Overall, the Shoshone case study shows the extent to which increased ';rule flexibility' could yield greater water supply certainty despite climate variability and change. More generally, we demonstrate how decision-centered and narrative approaches can strengthen water planning and adaptation despite large uncertainty about future stressors on river basin properties.

Wilby, R. L.; Miller, K.; Yates, D. N.; Kaatz, L.

2013-12-01

96

Change of soil carbon fluxes in European beech forest under different climate and management scenarios: an example from Serbia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature conditions and forest management determine the rate of soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. European beech is one of most important and most abundant tree species in Europe. Forest management strategy influences aboveground biomass as well as belowground biomass and soil organic and inorganic carbon. This study explores how different management strategies (i.e. thinning from above intensities with 10%, 20% and 30% removal of trees every ten years) under three different time periods 1971-2000, 2011-2040 and 2051-2080 of the IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario, influence total soil carbon stock in a beech stand in eastern Serbia. For the simulations, the process-based tree growth model 4C was used. At the beginning of the simulations, the total soil carbon stock was about 85 tC/ha. The most intensive management strategy appears to provide highest carbon fluxes into the soil and the highest total carbon stock values (between 160 and 180 tC/ha) at the end of the simulation periods. All management strategies under the climate of the period 2051-2080 showed the lowest values (about 160 tC/ha). We analyse the interrelationships between management caused changes in litter fluxes and climate (mainly temperature) caused losses of carbon from soil by respiration. In some cases different thinning intensities showed similar fluxes for the same time periods, whereas both climate scenario periods showed quite similar influence for the same management scenarios. The influence of different management strategies on the final total soil carbon stock will be shown.

Stojanovi?, Dejan; Orlovi?, Saša; Matovi?, Bratislav; Suckow, Felicitas; Lasch-Born, Petra; Gali?, Zoran; Reyer, Christopher; Gutsch, Martin; Peke?, Saša

2013-04-01

97

Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.

Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.

1990-08-01

98

The future of the Salton Sea under proposed lower Colorado River basin water management scenarios  

E-print Network

(from the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) (2) ................................................................................................. 80 4 Historic elevation in feet above sea level (fasl) ? Imperial Irrigation District (IID... into north and south impoundments ? scenario 3 ................................................................................................... 178 A.16 Scenario 2 TIN calculated elevations and volumes versus USBR report calculations...

Kjelland, Michael Edward

2009-05-15

99

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios  

PubMed Central

Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials. PMID:23369357

2013-01-01

100

MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE SPORTS INJURIES AND MEDICAL CONDITIONS BY PHYSICAL THERAPISTS: ASSESSMENT VIA CASE SCENARIOS  

PubMed Central

Purpose/Background: Some physical therapists (PTs) provide services at sporting events, but there are limited studies investigating whether PTs are properly prepared to provide such services. The purpose of this study was to assess acute sports injury and medical condition management decision-making skills of PTs. Methods: A Web-based survey presented 17 case scenarios related to acute medical conditions and sport injuries. PTs from the Sports Physical Therapy Section of The American Physical Therapy Association were e-mailed a cover letter/Web link to the survey and invited to participate over a 30-day period. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results: A total of 411 of 5158 PTs who were members of the Sports Physical Therapy Association in 2009 and had valid e-mail addresses completed the survey, of which 389 (7.5%) were appropriate for analysis. Over 75.0% of respondents felt “prepared” or “somewhat prepared” to provide immediate care for 13 out of 16 medical conditions, with seizures, spinal cord injuries, and internal organ injuries having the lowest percentages. Over 75.0% of the respondents made “appropriate” or “overly cautious” decisions for 11 of the 17 acute injury or medical condition cases. Conclusions: Results of the current study indicate that PTs felt more “prepared” and tended to make “appropriate” return to play decisions on the acute sports injury and medical condition case studies more often than coaches who participated in a similar study, regardless of level of importance of the game or whether the athlete was a starter vs. non-starter. However, for PTs who plan on assisting at sporting events, additional preparation/education may be recommended, such as what is taught in an emergency responder course. PMID:21904695

Karges, Joy Renae; Salsbery, Mitchell A.; Smith, Danna; Stanley, Erica J.

2011-01-01

101

Comparative analysis of water-use scenarios for lower don water management system  

Microsoft Academic Search

The major attention is paid to the methods and details of the development of complex water use scenarios. Comprehensive estimates\\u000a of the state, formation, and use of water resources in Rostov province and Lower Don basin, taking into account socioeconomic\\u000a trends, are given. Socioeconomic criteria are used to develop scenarios of water and land use and the procedure of their

V. V. Selyutin; S. V. Berdnikov; V. V. Kulygin

2009-01-01

102

Modeling scenarios for water resources management in a semi-arid catchment "Merguellil - Tunisia"  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the Mediterranean climatic zone, also labeled as semi-arid area, hydrological processes are largely variable both in time and space due to the high variability of rainfall regime, the influence of topography and the spatial distribution of geology, soil and land use. These processes may also have changed due to a range of human activities such as land use changes, dams building, soil and water conservations works. Besides, there is a general agreement that global climate change is taking place in the Mediterranean basin. The Merguellil catchment (Central Tunisia), as a typical Mediterranean semi-arid basin, suffers regular water shortage aggravated by current drought with different degrees of frequency, intensity and severity. In addition, the hydrological regime has been changed over the last decade in this catchment. The construction of the large El Haouareb dam (1989) increases the surface storage and evaporations losses. Soil and water Conservation Works (SWCW) (ie. benches terraces) and others small and large dams have altered the hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-2000) model was used in order to simulate the water and nutrient balance at the catchment scale. The simulation results revealed that evapotranspiration is the major component (91%) of the hydrological balance. Hydrological Calibration (1992-1994) and validation (1996-1998) have been carried out referring to a daily flow data at the Hafouz flowgage. The model performance was satisfactory and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranges between 0.3 to 0.5. The water quality simulation shows that Phosphorus simulated concentrations better matched existing measurements. In order to improve the availability of high quality water, three scenarios were generated. Firstly, the total or partial removal of SWCWs from the upstream area has shown an increase of the surface runoff and sediment loading at the outlet. Secondly, by reducing 20% in the applied fertilizers, no change was detected in the crop yield, whereas on a yearly scale, it has been noted a reduction in sediment and nutrient loads. Finally to assess the potential impact of climate change, the predicted precipitations and temperatures (for 2020, 2050 and 2080) from the general circulation model HadCm3 developed by UK Hadley Center for climatic prediction and research, were used. All the components of the water and nutrient balance are foreseen to decrease. A longer arid period in summer is also predicted leading to a decrease of the sediment and nutrient load in that period.

Abouabdillah, A.; Lo Porto, A.; de Girolamo, A. M.; Sakka, M.

2009-04-01

103

Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site  

SciTech Connect

Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

1980-11-01

104

A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

105

Surface extra-vehicular activity emergency scenario management: Tools, procedures, and geologically related implications  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) are an essential part of human space exploration, but involve inherently dangerous procedures which can put crew safety at risk during a space mission. To help mitigate this risk, astronauts' training programs spend substantial attention on preparing for surface EVA emergency scenarios. With the help of two Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) crews (61 and 65), wearing simulated spacesuits, the most important of these emergency scenarios were examined at three different types of locations that geologically and environmentally resemble lunar and Martian landscapes. These three platforms were analyzed geologically as well as topographically (utilizing a laser range finder with slope estimation capabilities and a slope determination software). Emergency scenarios were separated into four main groups: (1) suit issues, (2) general physiological, (3) attacks and (4) others. Specific tools and procedures were developed to address each scenario. The tools and processes were tested in the field under Mars-analog conditions with the suited subjects for feasibility and speed of execution.

Zea, Luis; Diaz, Alejandro R.; Shepherd, Charles K.; Kumar, Ranganathan

2010-07-01

106

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

107

Behavioral and environmental influences on fishing rewards and the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for large tropical rivers.  

PubMed

Identifying the factors that influence the amount of fish caught, and thus the fishers' income, is important for proposing or improving management plans. Some of these factors influencing fishing rewards may be related to fishers' behavior, which is driven by economic motivations. Therefore, those management rules that have less of an impact on fishers' income could achieve better acceptance and compliance from fishers. We analyzed the relative influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on fish catches (biomass) in fishing communities of a large tropical river. We then used the results from this analysis to propose alternative management scenarios in which we predicted potential fishers' compliance (high, moderate and low) based on the extent to which management proposals would affect fish catches and fishers' income. We used a General Linear Model (GLM) to analyze the influence of environmental (fishing community, season and habitat) and socioeconomic factors (number of fishers in the crew, time spent fishing, fishing gear used, type of canoe, distance traveled to fishing grounds) on fish catches (dependent variable) in 572 fishing trips by small-scale fishers in the Lower Tocantins River, Brazilian Amazon. According to the GLM, all factors together accounted for 43% of the variation in the biomass of the fish that were caught. The behaviors of fishers' that are linked to fishing effort, such as time spent fishing (42% of the total explained by GLM), distance traveled to the fishing ground (12%) and number of fishers (10%), were all positively related to the biomass of fish caught and could explain most of the variation on it. The environmental factor of the fishing habitat accounted for 10% of the variation in fish caught. These results, when applied to management scenarios, indicated that some combinations of the management measures, such as selected lakes as no-take areas, restrictions on the use of gillnets (especially during the high-water season) and individual quotas larger than fishers' usual catches, would most likely have less impact on fishers' income. The proposed scenarios help to identify feasible management options, which could promote the conservation of fish, potentially achieving higher fishers' compliance. PMID:23764509

Hallwass, Gustavo; Lopes, Priscila F M; Juras, Anastácio A; Silvano, Renato A M

2013-10-15

108

Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration in the southwest

Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

2006-12-01

109

Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.  

PubMed

The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. PMID:24161647

Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

2013-12-01

110

Future scenarios of soil water availability at managed grassland ecosystems in the Austrian Alps  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Available soil water is a major constraint for numerous ecosystem functions and is likely to be considerably affected by projected shifts in temperature and precipitation. Quantifying likely future changes in soil water content is therefore essential for assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functions. We present a data fusion approach addressing changes in soil water content of temperate grasslands in the Austrian Alps under future climate scenarios. We use a simple soil bucket model, characterized by an efficient structure and minimal requirements regarding meteorological inputs (solar radiation, precipitation and air temperature). The model is therefore suitable for the analysis of a wide range of ecological datasets. Model parameter were constrained by up to three different datasets (soil water content, evapotranspiration and snow water equivalent) using a Bayesian inversion scheme. Given a repository of data collected at ten sites in the Eastern Alps as well as a set of downscaled and error corrected (quantile mapping) regional climate scenarios, developed for the years 1961 - 2050 with 5 different regional/global climate models (CNRMRM, AITCCLM, KNMIRACMO, DMIHIRHAM, ETHZCLM) we simulated soil water content conditions under these future climate scenarios. Despite the simple model structure calibrated model runs do show a very good performance at the majority of investigated sites. Results show that if any trend can be found, the investigated ecosystems tend to higher soil water contents on average, associated with a distinct decrease in snow cover duration under future climate conditions. Regardless of these average trends some climate models cause an increasing frequency and a longer duration of extreme dry soil water conditions under future climate scenarios.

Hammerle, Albin; Calanca, Pierluigi; Themessl, Matthias; Gobiet, Andreas; Wohlfahrt, Georg

2014-05-01

111

CO2 deserts: implications of existing CO2 supply limitations for carbon management.  

PubMed

Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change will require deep reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the scale of gigatonnes per year. CO2 capture and utilization and/or storage technologies are a class of approaches that can substantially reduce CO2 emissions. Even though examples of this approach, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, are already being practiced on a scale >0.05 Gt/year, little attention has been focused on the supply of CO2 for these projects. Here, facility-scale data newly collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was processed to produce the first comprehensive map of CO2 sources from industrial sectors currently supplying CO2 in the United States. Collectively these sources produce 0.16 Gt/year, but the data reveal the presence of large areas without access to CO2 at an industrially relevant scale (>25 kt/year). Even though some facilities with the capability to capture CO2 are not doing so and in some regions pipeline networks are being built to link CO2 sources and sinks, much of the country exists in "CO2 deserts". A life cycle analysis of the sources reveals that the predominant source of CO2, dedicated wells, has the largest carbon footprint further confounding prospects for rational carbon management strategies. PMID:25137398

Middleton, Richard S; Clarens, Andres F; Liu, Xiaowei; Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan S

2014-10-01

112

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with a few modifications, may help address the complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

2012-12-01

113

Development of Energy Consumption Database Management System of Existing Large Public Buildings  

E-print Network

The statistic data of energy consumption are the base of analyzing energy consumption. The scientific management method of energy consumption data and the development of database management system plays an important role in building energy...

Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Sun, D.

2006-01-01

114

Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called “reserve” (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users’ associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users’ behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not suffice during dry years. Nevertheless, the ease of use of the model and its user-friendly interfaces make it particularly useful for discussions and dialogue on water resources management among stakeholders; it can also be used to promote greater awareness and understanding of key issues and concerns among the public.

Lévite, Hervé; Sally, Hilmy; Cour, Julien

115

The classification of lands managed for conservation: existing and proposed frameworks, with particular reference to Australia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Comprehensive classification systems to accurately account for lands managed for biodiversity conservation, are an essential component of conservation planning and policy. The current international classification systems for lands managed for nature conservation are reviewed, with a particular emphasis on Australia. The need for a broader, all-encompassing, categorisation of lands managed for conservation is presented and a proposed broader categorisation system

James A. Fitzsimons; Geoff Wescott

2004-01-01

116

Effectiveness of alternative management scenarios on the sediment load in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

The AnnAGNPS model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management Practices (MPs) on soil erosion and sediment load in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2) located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was previously calibrated and validated using f...

117

Simulation of Future Land Use for Water Management - Assessing the suitability of scenario-based modelling  

Microsoft Academic Search

The problem of water shortage is increasingly getting attention within the field of water management, even in the wet Netherlands. Clean ground and surface water may become too scarce to allow for sustainable use for various functions. In order to assess the magnitude of this problem a water shortage study has been started in the Netherlands, in which the impact

Jasper Dekkers; Eric Koomen

2005-01-01

118

Envisioning innovative groundwater management policies through scenario workshops in France and Portugal  

E-print Network

of climate change. Policy makers and stakeholders will have to invent a new water management. Introduction In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is expected to result in reduced available water by policy makers and experts alone but that it should also involve grass root water users, farmers

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

119

Vulnerability to uncertain climate change scenarios: implications for water resources management in two Mediterranean watersheds  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water resource consumption in Mediterranean basins is often dominated by irrigation. Climate change is expected to increase pressure on available resources, due to a decrease in total rainfall coupled with an increase in irrigation water demands due to higher temperatures. This pressure needs to be quantified in order to allow water resource managers to adapt to the impacts of climate

J. P. Nunes

2009-01-01

120

An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty  

Microsoft Academic Search

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water\\u000a resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues\\u000a and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems\\u000a have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that

Yong Liu; Huaicheng Guo; Zhenxing Zhang; Lijing Wang; Yongli Dai; Yingying Fan

2007-01-01

121

The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenario analyses  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher.

Lazzari, P.; Mattia, G.; Solidoro, C.; Salon, S.; Crise, A.; Zavatarelli, M.; Oddo, P.; Vichi, M.

2014-07-01

122

A web tool for STORET/WQX water quality data retrieval and Best Management Practice scenario suggestion.  

PubMed

Total Maximum Daily Load is a water quality standard to regulate water quality of streams, rivers and lakes. A wide range of approaches are used currently to develop TMDLs for impaired streams and rivers. Flow and load duration curves (FDC and LDC) have been used in many states to evaluate the relationship between flow and pollutant loading along with other models and approaches. A web-based LDC Tool was developed to facilitate development of FDC and LDC as well as to support other hydrologic analyses. In this study, the FDC and LDC tool was enhanced to allow collection of water quality data via the web and to assist in establishing cost-effective Best Management Practice (BMP) implementations. The enhanced web-based tool provides use of water quality data not only from the US Geological Survey but also from the Water Quality Portal for the U.S. via web access. Moreover, the web-based tool identifies required pollutant reductions to meet standard loads and suggests a BMP scenario based on ability of BMPs to reduce pollutant loads, BMP establishment and maintenance costs. In the study, flow and water quality data were collected via web access to develop LDC and to identify the required reduction. The suggested BMP scenario from the web-based tool was evaluated using the EPA Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load model to attain the required pollutant reduction at least cost. PMID:25460420

Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A; Kim, Jonggun; Theller, Larry; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Merwade, Venkatesh; Lim, Kyoung Jae

2015-03-01

123

The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co-benefits contribute to a coherent ecosystem-based adaptation strategy promoting landscape resilience at the landscape scale.

Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

2014-05-01

124

Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

Munson, John B.

1988-01-01

125

From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.  

PubMed

Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

2014-03-01

126

Application of knowledge management and the intelligence continuum for medical emergencies and disaster scenarios.  

PubMed

The world has recently witnessed several large scale natural disasters. These include the Asian tsunami which devastated many of the countries around the rim of the Indian Ocean in December 2004, extensive flooding in many parts of Europe in August 2005, hurricane katrina (September 2005), the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in many regions of Asia and Canada in 2003 and the Pakistan earthquake (towards the end of 2005). Such emergency and disaster situations (E&DS) serve to underscore the utter chaos that ensues in the aftermath of such events, the many casualties and lives lost not to mention the devastation and destruction that is left behind. One recurring theme that is apparent in all these situations is that, irrespective of the warnings of imminent threats, countries have not been prepared and ready to exhibit effective and efficient crisis management. This paper examines the application of the tools, techniques and processes of the knowledge economy to develop a prescriptive model that will support superior decision making in E&DS, thereby enabling effective and efficient crisis management. PMID:17946683

Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bali, Rajeev K; Naguib, Raouf N G

2006-01-01

127

From Eutrophic to Mesotrophic: Modelling Watershed Management Scenarios to Change the Trophic Status of a Reservoir  

PubMed Central

Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

2014-01-01

128

Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single Family Homes (Revised)  

SciTech Connect

This document focuses on managing the driving forces which move air and moisture across the building envelope. While other previously published Measure Guidelines focus on elimination of air pathways, the ultimate goal of this Measure Guideline is to manage drivers which cause air flow and water vapor transport across the building envelope (and also within the home), control air infiltration, keep relative humidity (RH) within acceptable limits, avoid combustion safety problems, improve occupant comfort, and reduce house energy use.

Cummings, J.; Withers, C.; Martin, E.; Moyer, N.

2012-10-01

129

Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes  

SciTech Connect

This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

2012-12-01

130

Does gender bias exist in the medical management of heart failure?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to ascertain the presence of gender bias in the medical management of heart failure, and to assess its association with the specialty of the caregiver physician. Methods: In 309 patients with documented left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction <45%) and at least one hospitalization for heart failure, we assessed the frequency of use

Kishore J. Harjai; Eduardo Nunez; J. Stewart Humphrey; Tansel Turgut; Mehul Shah; Jeff Newman

2000-01-01

131

Does Interdisciplinarity Exist behind the Facade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the facade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed…

Pharo, Emma; Bridle, Kerry

2012-01-01

132

Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey  

SciTech Connect

Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.

Tinmaz, Esra [Trakya University, Corlu Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, 59860 Corlu/Tekirdag (Turkey)]. E-mail: esratinmaz@gmail.com; Demir, Ibrahim [Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, Maslak/Istanbul (Turkey)]. E-mail: idemir@itu.edu.tr

2006-07-01

133

Research on Commercial Patterns of China Existing Building Energy Retrofit Based on Energy Management Contract  

E-print Network

.16 billion m2. At present, there are 13 billion m2 of existing building to carry on the energy retrofit in China. Suppose the energy retrofit expense is 100~200RMB/m2, the total retrofit expense will amount to 2,000 billion RMB. So, how to raise...

Han, Z.; Liu, C.; Sun, J.

2006-01-01

134

Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system.  

PubMed

The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems. PMID:21774437

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Johnson, Craig R; Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Chérubin, Laurent M; Arias-González, J Ernesto; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2011-06-01

135

Design and evaluation of simulation scenarios for a program introducing patient safety, teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to healthcare leaders and managers.  

PubMed

We developed a training program to introduce managers and informal leaders of healthcare organizations to key concepts of teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to motivate them to act as leaders to improve safety within their sphere of influence. This report describes the simulation scenario and debriefing that are core elements of that program. Twelve teams of clinician and nonclinician managers were selected from a larger set of volunteers to participate in a 1-day, multielement training program. Two simulation exercises were developed: one for teams of nonclinicians and the other for clinicians or mixed groups. The scenarios represented two different clinical situations, each designed to engage participants in discussions of their safety leadership and teamwork issues immediately after the experience. In the scenarios for nonclinicians, participants conducted an anesthetic induction and then managed an ethical situation. The scenario for clinicians simulated a consulting visit to an emergency room that evolved into a problem-solving challenge. Participants in this scenario had a limited time to prepare advice for hospital leadership on how to improve observed safety and cultural deficiencies. Debriefings after both types of scenarios were conducted using principles of "debriefing with good judgment." We assessed the relevance and impact of the program by analyzing participant reactions to the simulation through transcript data and facilitator observations as well as a postcourse questionnaire. The teams generally reported positive perceptions of the relevance and quality of the simulation with varying types and degrees of impact on their leadership and teamwork behaviors. These kinds of clinical simulation exercises can be used to teach healthcare leaders and managers safety leadership and teamwork skills and behaviors. PMID:21642906

Cooper, Jeffrey B; Singer, Sara J; Hayes, Jennifer; Sales, Michael; Vogt, Jay W; Raemer, Daniel; Meyer, Gregg S

2011-08-01

136

Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial  

PubMed Central

Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations—teachers and nurses—that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0.5%) in chronic “trait” anxiety. A similar pattern was found for coping skills: both treatments were able to significantly increase most coping skills, but only EG participants reported a significant increase (EG=14% vs CG=0.3%) in the Emotional Support skill. Conclusions Our findings provide initial evidence that the Interreality protocol yields better outcomes than the traditionally accepted gold standard for psychological stress treatment: CBT. Consequently, these findings constitute a sound foundation and rationale for the importance of continuing future research in technology-enhanced protocols for psychological stress management. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01683617; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01683617 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6QnziHv3h). PMID:25004803

Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

137

Examining the world of subcultural existence: a descriptive analysis of African American management experiences and values  

E-print Network

.S., University of Houston, Clear Lake Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Kenneth E. Paprock A s t o d a y ? s g l o b a l b u s i n e s s es acknowledge the criticality of being competitive in international markets, this new awakening also compels... through q u a l i t a t i v e i n q u i r y , p r e s e n t i n g t h e i n f o r m a n t s ? e m i c v i e w s t o u n d e r s t a n d u n i q u e n e s s o r commonalities of their management values (attitudes, beliefs...

Stephens, Chandra D.

2007-04-25

138

Example Scenarios  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This section explores several hypothetical scenarios of nuclear-weapon detonations on U.S. cities. These scenarios are meant to illustrate the possibilities of such events. Scenarios include a "what-if" scenario of a 150-kiloton nuclear explosion by terrorists on New York City, and the effects of a nuclear accident or "broken arrow" on board a nuclear submarine in San Francisco Bay.

Christopher Griffith

139

Software Health Management: A Short Review of Challenges and Existing Techniques  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Modern spacecraft (as well as most other complex mechanisms like aircraft, automobiles, and chemical plants) rely more and more on software, to a point where software failures have caused severe accidents and loss of missions. Software failures during a manned mission can cause loss of life, so there are severe requirements to make the software as safe and reliable as possible. Typically, verification and validation (V&V) has the task of making sure that all software errors are found before the software is deployed and that it always conforms to the requirements. Experience, however, shows that this gold standard of error-free software cannot be reached in practice. Even if the software alone is free of glitches, its interoperation with the hardware (e.g., with sensors or actuators) can cause problems. Unexpected operational conditions or changes in the environment may ultimately cause a software system to fail. Is there a way to surmount this problem? In most modern aircraft and many automobiles, hardware such as central electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components are monitored by IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) systems. These systems can recognize, isolate, and identify faults and failures, both those that already occurred as well as imminent ones. With the help of diagnostics and prognostics, appropriate mitigation strategies can be selected (replacement or repair, switch to redundant systems, etc.). In this short paper, we discuss some challenges and promising techniques for software health management (SWHM). In particular, we identify unique challenges for preventing software failure in systems which involve both software and hardware components. We then present our classifications of techniques related to SWHM. These classifications are performed based on dimensions of interest to both developers and users of the techniques, and hopefully provide a map for dealing with software faults and failures.

Pipatsrisawat, Knot; Darwiche, Adnan; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Schumann, Johann

2009-01-01

140

Scenario Testing  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This subset of the Black Box Software Testing collection includes resources to teach Scenario Testing. The scenario test involves a story about how the program is used, including information about the motivations of the people involved. The Soap Opera emphasizes the human issues, even beyond the traditional scenario. Resources include lecture videos, slides, activities, suggested readings, and study guide materials.

Cem Kaner

2011-06-01

141

Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China  

PubMed Central

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-01-01

142

Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)  

SciTech Connect

Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

2010-12-01

143

An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The need to improve smallholder rainfed maize production in a sustainable manner is important in South Africa, as maize is a staple food to the rural indigenous population. Smallholder maize production is often characterised by low yields, which are often significantly lower than the potential for the land. However, sustainable maize production is not only a question of yields, but also of protection of the environmental resource base, social welfare, and the livelihoods of farmers as well as adjacent rural and urban communities. Sustainability for the smallholder farmer raises questions of household food security, farmer and community well-being as well as agro-ecosystem integrity. Sustainability was assessed at the smallholder agro-ecosystem scale using a goal-orientated sustainability framework. The use of the physically based CERES-Maize crop model within the sustainability framework meant that agro-ecosystem responses to different management options (e.g. tillage systems and fertiliser application) and climate change scenarios could be quantified. The agro-ecosystem that has been simulated is at Potshini village, which is about 10 km from Bergville in the western-central region of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The agro-ecosystem was simulated for different management strategies for a range of plausible future climate scenarios for South Africa. The future climate scenarios of ‘2 × CO 2’ and ‘2 × CO 2 + 10%rain’ had the biggest positive effect on mean grain yield. These scenarios had increases of over 1000 kg/ha with inorganic fertiliser and ?200 kg/ha with manure. The largest negative effects on yield are with the ‘+2 °C’ scenario. The biggest increase in losses of organic nitrogen were with the ‘2 × CO 2 + 2 °C’ scenario where losses increased by up to 5%.

Walker, N. J.; Schulze, R. E.

144

Building scenarios for Hong Kong using EMS  

Microsoft Academic Search

Managers facing substantial uncertainties find it helpful to construct scenarios describing alternative futures. The scenarios reveal a variety of possible futures that managers might face, and the scenario construction process can offer insights into the source of future uncertainties. As part of the scenario-building process it is useful to talk with people who are knowledgeable about the events depicted in

Robert W. Blanning; Bruce A. Reinig

1998-01-01

145

Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

2014-05-01

146

PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &  

E-print Network

on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" #122 0 0 6 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy Technology/speech/2006/ramsay/etp_tokyo.pdf #12;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE G8

147

Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario  

SciTech Connect

Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - KIT, Hermann-von-Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

2013-07-01

148

A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: the case of an Italian urban area.  

PubMed

Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process. PMID:25008299

Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

2014-11-01

149

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities,

Franklin Dexter; Ruth E Wachtel; Richard H Epstein

2011-01-01

150

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

151

Extreme Climatic Events Modelling and Economic Impacts Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: a Risk Management Application to the Rural Sector in China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An increasing body of literature has shown the increase of frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation events across the world. Several economic systems and networks present high levels of vulnerability to weather variability and extreme weather events. This research proposes a methodological framework to characterize the cascading climate-to-economy risk profiles of economic systems to weather variability in different global warming scenarios. A weather-index and machine learning-based approach is introduced to encode and characterize the studied systems vulnerability to weather variability. The latter is enclosed in a "weather-within-climate" stochastic downscaling approach in order to characterize the interaction of low and high frequency climate variability and project risk profiles into future climate scenarios. The probabilistic weather-driven physical loss risk profiles are finally used to model supply shock-driven economic direct and indirect economic losses in the studied region or country. Given the acute vulnerability of the rural population to weather variability and global warming, this probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology is applied to the study the risk profile of weather-driven loss in the rural sector in a developing country, China. Province-level weather-to-economy risk profiles results of weather-driven staple crops loss under different technological and climate scenarios are presented. Implications for the design of risk management policy mixes are finally discussed.

Chavez, E.; Ghil, M.

2013-05-01

152

Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

2013-04-01

153

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study  

SciTech Connect

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

1990-09-01

154

Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

2013-04-01

155

Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some months over different years. There are no chances of overtopping of the dam during the 2020s and the 2050s under A2 and B2 scenarios. _______________________________________________________________________________KEY WORDS: Climate Model, Climate Change, Hydrological Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Tarbela Reservoir, Inflow, Outflow, Evaporation, Indus River, Calibration, Bias Correction.

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2014-05-01

156

Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term field trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general circulation models were validated using these field trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year-1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be -4.3 to 18.2 t C ha-1 by 2100. The effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ significantly between climate scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2) was approximately 0.136 t C ha-1 yr-1 in northern China. These findings highlight the need to maintain, and where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming inorganic fertilizer intensive.

Jiang, Guiying; Xu, Minggang; He, Xinhua; Zhang, Wenju; Huang, Shaomin; Yang, Xueyun; Liu, Hua; Peng, Chang; Shirato, Yasuhito; Iizumi, Toshichika; Wang, Jinzhou; Murphy, Daniel V.

2014-03-01

157

Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the greater everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.  

PubMed

Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades. PMID:25312295

Koch, M S; Coronado, C; Miller, M W; Rudnick, D T; Stabenau, E; Halley, R B; Sklar, F H

2015-04-01

158

Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees.  

PubMed

Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced. PMID:24090497

López-Moreno, J I; Zabalza, J; Vicente-Serrano, S M; Revuelto, J; Gilaberte, M; Azorin-Molina, C; Morán-Tejeda, E; García-Ruiz, J M; Tague, C

2014-09-15

159

Existing capacity to manage pharmaceuticals and related commodities in East Africa: an assessment with specific reference to antiretroviral therapy  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: East African countries have in the recent past experienced a tremendous increase in the volume of antiretroviral drugs. Capacity to manage these medicines in the region remains limited. Makerere University, with technical assistance from the USAID supported Rational Pharmaceutical Management Plus (RPM Plus) Program of Management Sciences for Health (MSH) established a network of academic institutions to build capacity

Paul J Waako; Richard Odoi-adome; Celestino Obua; Erisa Owino; Winnie Tumwikirize; Jasper Ogwal-okeng; Willy W Anokbonggo; Lloyd Matowe; Onesky Aupont

2009-01-01

160

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

161

Climate and Management of the Colorado River: What Does the SSD Study Tell Us About Scenario Analysis?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The "Severe Sustained Drought in the Southwestern US" (SSD) research project conducted between 1989-1994 focused on the likely size and distribution of water shortages in the Colorado River Basin should the most severe, long-term drought found in the tree-ring record reoccur in the modern era. The research approach, generally, was to (a) utilize tree-ring studies to reconstruct prehistoric flows, (b) select the drought from this record that was most likely to catastrophically stress the system, (c) estimate future water demand in the basin, (d) utilize institutional studies and water system modeling to identify the timing, location and magnitude of likely water shortages should this drought reoccur, (e) assess impacts and damages associated with these shortages, and (f) investigate a small set of coping strategies. Each step in this process raised a variety of technical challenges and drew upon the talents of approximately 40 researchers including engineers/hydrologists, attorneys, economists, environmental scientists, sociologists, and policy specialists. The goal was to stimulate thinking and reform prior to a drought crisis; however, the study findings were largely ignored until the recent drought crisis, and then once discovered, some of the key conclusions of the study regarding substantive issues of water shortage vulnerability and distribution were found to be inconsistent with (and thus potentially irrelevant to solving) the current drought. Understanding why some key results of the research scenario differ significantly from the current crisis is important in informing future scenario analyses. Specifically, this case study highlights the importance and difficulty of (a) effectively linking scientific modeling efforts with social analyses, and (b) linking scenario analyses to real-world policy-making settings. In this basin, improving the understanding of drought is likely less about improved scholarship in climate and hydrology, and more about understanding the role of water demand, risk allocation, legal and political uncertainties, distorted economic incentives, and the lack of adequate forums, tools and incentives for dispute resolution. Until the institutional problems are better understood and integrated into scientific assessments, efforts such as the SSD study are unlikely to achieve their full theoretical benefits.

Kenney, D. S.

2007-12-01

162

Economic and ecological implications of alternative brush management and restoration scenarios designed to improve water yield in two Texas watersheds  

E-print Network

. Costs of additional water are lower for sub-basins within the Edwards study area (ranging from $32 to $70 per acre-foot of water added) than in the Twin Buttes (ranging from $63 to $218 per acre-foot), meaning that brush management efforts are more...

Olenick, Keith Layne

2002-01-01

163

Refinement and Management Recommendations of Mobile Phones The questionnaire below deals with features that currently exist in the mobile phones domain (not  

E-print Network

. In a mobile phone Bluetooth and USB are both communication standards 12. Two common settings of a mobile phoneRefinement and Management Recommendations of Mobile Phones The questionnaire below deals with features that currently exist in the mobile phones domain (not necessarily smart phones). After providing

Reinhartz-Berger, Iris

164

Modelling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in forest ecosystems of Central Russia under different climate change scenarios and forest management regimes  

Microsoft Academic Search

The individual-based stand-level model EFIMOD was used for large-scale simulations using standard data on forest inventories as model inputs. The model was verified for the case-study of field observations, and possible sources of uncertainties were analysed. The approach developed kept the ability for fine-tuning to account for spatial discontinuity in the simulated area. Several forest management regimes were simulated as

Vladimir N. Shanin; Alexander S. Komarov; Alexey V. Mikhailov; Sergei S. Bykhovets

2011-01-01

165

Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A method of generating scenarios using differential scenaro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.

Makino, Masayuki; Ohnishi, Atsushi

166

Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis 1 Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis  

E-print Network

Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis 1 Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis Peter Mc.j.mcburney@csc.liv.ac.uk sparsons@mit.edu Received 26 February 2002 Abstract Scenario analysis is often used to identify possible chance events. However, no formal, computational theory yet exists for scenario analysis. In this paper

McBurney, Peter

167

Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis 1 Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis  

E-print Network

Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis 1 Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis Peter Mc.j.mcburney,s.d.parsonsg@csc.liv.ac.uk Received 26 February 2002 Abstract Scenario analysis is often used to identify possible chance events. However, no formal, computational theory yet exists for scenario analysis. In this paper, we commence

Atkinson, Katie

168

Family Physicians’ Management of Genetic Aspects of a Cardiac Disease: A Scenario-Based Study from Slovenia  

PubMed Central

The aim of this study was to find out how Slovenian family physicians (FPs) would manage a hypothetical clinical case, to explore their views about possible ethical dilemmas associated with this clinical case and to determine possible associations with demographic and other characteristics of FPs. This was an observational cross-sectional postal study in the Slovenian FPs’ surgeries. The study population consisted of the whole population of Slovenian FPs (n = 950). The main outcome measures were the percentages of the answers of FPs on different questions about the clinical case on the management of patient and his relative with hereditary cardiomyopathy. There were 271 FPs who answered the questionnaire (response rate was 27.1%). A sample included 66 (24.4%) men and the mean age of all respondents was 45.5 ± 10.6 years. When dealing with the clinical case, most FPs expressed willingness to take the patient’s family history. Only 34.2% FPs did not believe that ordering genetic tests was part of their job. Additionally, only 50.0% of them felt competent to interpret the genetic risk, 25.0% of them would give information about genetic testing and only 6.0% would interpret the results of the genetic testing. Family physicians in Slovenia were willing to include genetic tasks into routine management of their patients, but they do not feel competent enough to interpret the genetic risks and the results of genetic testing. However, an important part of FPs would not refer patients at risk to genetic counseling. The inclusion of genetic topics to family medicine specialization curriculum is needed. PMID:25741210

Klemenc-Ketiš, Z; Peterlin, B

2014-01-01

169

Special Leave Scenarios Scenario Special  

E-print Network

) ­ not medically required You have a dentist or GP appointment Not recorded* Dentist and GP appointments should and the amount of special leave should be at your manager's discretion eg funeral attendance. *Dentist and GP

Brierley, Andrew

170

Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.  

PubMed

The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790

Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei

2013-11-30

171

Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Freeman, W. [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Chemistry

1994-03-01

172

Performance Management Guide (Rev 2/07) Page 1 Please note: the following Guide is under revision and existing  

E-print Network

and effective performance meetings with their employees. Additional resources are also available to guide/index.asp COMPREHENSIVE and EFFECTIVE PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS Organizational Principles Five Behavioral Competencies a moment to complete the User Survey for the Performance Management Guide. Nursing Practice employees

Portman, Douglas

173

Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland  

PubMed Central

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

174

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.  

PubMed

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

175

A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

2014-05-01

176

Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

2013-12-01

177

Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using bayesian networks.  

PubMed

In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2015-02-01

178

Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley  

Microsoft Academic Search

Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality man- agement. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole method- ology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The

J.-L. Ponche; J.-F. Vinuesa

2005-01-01

179

COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF  

E-print Network

staff uses a scenario analysis approach to examine the implications of resource plans featuring very efficiency, renewable generation, solar photo voltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis

180

Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

Jackman, A. E.; Fabos, J. G.; Carlozzi, C. C.

1982-01-01

181

Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

182

The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.

1986-01-01

183

Scenarios and task analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A Critical Review of Carroll's book on scenario-based design is offered [Making Use: Scenario-Based Design of Human–Computer Interactions (2000)]. Carroll characterises scenarios as ‘stories about use’. The paper demonstrates that Carroll's proposals about scenarios and their use in software engineering can be fitted into the broader framework of task analysis in Human–Computer Interaction.

Dan Diaper

2002-01-01

184

Note On Scenario Planning: An Abridged Version  

Microsoft Academic Search

This note describes one of the major long-range planning tools developed and used during the past three decades--scenario planning. Scenarios were developed as alternatives to single-line and range forecasts, because those techniques often proved to be ineffective and inaccurate tools for developing strategic plans, especially during times of economic turbulence. Scenarios present several plausible but contrasting futures, which forces managers

Charles Kennedy; Leslie Grayson; John Bristow

185

Employee training: Eight scenarios  

SciTech Connect

This chapter addresses training issues in a comprehensive environmental management program. Obviously the needs of each company may vary to some degree; but the requirements, in terms of both legal mandate and good business sense, are often applicable across the board. The intent of this chapter is to discuss the levels of training that may be required by an industrial organization. Wherever possible information is provided concerning the ``how to`s`` of an environmental training program (how to set up a training support program, how to implement training to meet specific training needs, etc.). The scenarios and case studies used in this chapter are hypothetical but are based on real incidents experienced by this author.

Busch, M.G.

1994-12-31

186

Preparing for Catastrophic Disasters: Application of Earth Science and Engineering Data, and Loss Scenarios for Emergency Management and Disaster Recovery Planning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catastrophic disasters, either man or nature caused, pose unique challenges to federal, state and local governments. The complex interactions of lifeline disruption, structural damage, and population displacement are difficult to comprehend or predict. As the preparation for and response to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illustrated, forecasting the occurrence of the event does not adequately define the complexity of the consequences. Preparing for the occurrence of a rapid onset disaster that occurs without warning creates additional challenges to the emergency management community. If the event is catastrophic, it will quickly overwhelm local, regional and state resources. The ability to comprehend the magnitude and complexity of such a disruption will also be overwhelmed. The State of California, in order to gain insights into the complexity and demands of a catastrophic earthquake event (historic events include Central California [1906, 1868], Southern California [1857], and possible future events), has partnered with the United States Geological Survey, Charles Kircher and Associates, PBS&J and FEMA to exercise and test the State's response to a catastrophic recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. As Kircher notes in his paper, USGS ground motions, enhanced structure inventories, and FEMA' loss estimation tool, HAZUS, are used to define the impact on the San Francisco Bay Region infrastructure, resources and economy. In November of 2006, this scenario will serve as the structure of a 10-county response exercise that will be played out over 36 continuous hours, replicating lifeline, communications and transportation disruption. The exercise, funded by the California Office of Homeland Security, is the first statewide catastrophic disaster response to be carried out in the State and should serve as both a model for integration of natural hazard information into homeland security planning and for developing training that addresses the complex vulnerability of our urban regions. This paper will describe the process of integrating Kircher's work into capability/capacity building and the testing of catastrophic disaster response in California; as well as the lessons, limitations and assessments of the exercise process.

Eisner, R.

2006-12-01

187

Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

2012-01-01

188

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 1 June 1998 Systems Analysis research programme (tenta- tively titled: Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development). The tentative objective of the research programme is 1) to contribute to the assessment of technological and scientific

189

Alternative scenarios for Ukraine  

Microsoft Academic Search

Major trends and driving forces are analysed in four areas, i.e. polity, economy, society and international environment of Ukraine, as well as their inter-linkages, in order to define overall dynamics of Ukrainian society. It leads to three basic scenarios for the medium term: a pan-Slavic state centred scenario (example Belarus), a feudalisation\\/mercantilist scenario (example Pakistan) and a liberalisation scenario (example

Hans van Zon

2002-01-01

190

Imprecise probabilities and scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper argues that imprecise probability can be used to describe uncertainty about scenarios. Scenarios are conceptualized as written descriptions of potential future worlds that are based on assessments of economic, political, social, technological, and environmental trends [This description of scenarios follows that provided by Peter Schwartz. P. Schwartz [9], The Art of the Long View, Doubleday, New York, 1991

Bruce Tonn

2005-01-01

191

Extended scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario analysis, as proposed by Rockafellar and Wets, is a stochastic programming technique employing discrete scenarios with known probabilities, usually covering several time periods. The requirement of nonaticipativity (not using future information to make present decisions) is enforced during the computational solution by using Spingarn's method of partial inverses. The scenario analysis method as proposed relies on separability (with respect

Stephen M. Robinson

1991-01-01

192

Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management  

PubMed Central

The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”. PMID:23894298

Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C.; Hull, Angela D.; Sanderson, William G.

2013-01-01

193

43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

2011-10-01

194

43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

2014-10-01

195

43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

2012-10-01

196

43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

2013-10-01

197

Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

2000-01-01

198

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in

Maud Huynen

2003-01-01

199

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

2013-11-15

200

A Step-by-step Approach to Building Land Management Scenarios Based on Multiple Viewpoints on Multi-agent System Simulations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Abstract: A multi-agent system was developed to simulate strategies of natural resources management,in the remarkable site of the Causse Méjan, a limestone plateau dominated by a rare pseudo-steppe endangered by pine encroachment. To stimulate the emergence,of alternative long-term management,strategies of the sheep farms and of the woodlands, contrasting dynamic viewpoints on land resources were designed at different space scales. In

Michel Etienne; Christophe Le Page; Mathilde Cohen

2003-01-01

201

Dome It Challenge Scenario Cards  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Student teams find solutions to hypothetical challenge scenarios that require them to sustainably manage both resources and wastes. They begin by creating a card representing themselves and the resources (inputs) they need and wastes (outputs) they produce. Then they incorporate additional cards for food and energy components and associated necessary resources and waste products. They draw connections between outputs that provide inputs for other needs, and explore the problem of using linear solutions in resource-limited environments. Then students incorporate cards based on biorecycling technologies, such as algae photobioreactors and anaerobic digesters in order to make circular connections. Finally, the student teams present their complete biorecycling engineering solutions to their scenarios—in poster format—by connecting outputs to inputs, and showing the cycles of how wastes become resources.

2014-09-18

202

Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites  

SciTech Connect

Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Boice, D.C.

1986-04-01

203

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

204

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

205

Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

Cherry, Gregory S.

2006-01-01

206

Can Networked Hospital Performance Comparisons Be Linked with Total Quality Management?A Scenario Based on the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council publishes annually performance comparisons on hospitals in nine regions of the state. As a result, hospitals are under public pressure to use these data in Total Quality Management programs. This article illustrates both the opportunity and the risk that pub licly funded information poses for hospitals.

J. Marvin Bentley

1993-01-01

207

PREDICTING WATER, SEDIMENT AND NO3-N LOADS UNDER SCENARIOS OF LAND-USE AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN A FLAT WATERSHED  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

Changes in land-use or management practices may affect water outflow, sediment, nutrients and pesticides loads. Thus, there is an increasing demand for quantitative information at the watershed scale that would help decision makers or planners to make appropriate decisions. This paper evaluates by a...

208

The Composite Twin Higgs scenario  

E-print Network

Based on an explicit model, we propose and discuss the generic features of a possible implementation of the Twin Higgs program in the context of composite Higgs models. We find that the Twin Higgs quadratic divergence cancellation argument can be uplifted to a genuine protection of the Higgs potential, based on symmetries and selection rules, but only under certain conditions which are not fulfilled in some of the existing models. We also find that a viable scenario, not plagued by a massless Twin Photon, can be obtained by not gauging the Twin Hypercharge and taking this as the only source of Twin Symmetry breaking at a very high scale.

Riccardo Barbieri; Davide Greco; Riccardo Rattazzi; Andrea Wulzer

2015-03-25

209

The Composite Twin Higgs scenario  

E-print Network

Based on an explicit model, we propose and discuss the generic features of a possible implementation of the Twin Higgs program in the context of composite Higgs models. We find that the Twin Higgs quadratic divergence cancellation argument can be uplifted to a genuine protection of the Higgs potential, based on symmetries and selection rules, but only under certain conditions which are not fulfilled in some of the existing models. We also find that a viable scenario, not plagued by a massless Twin Photon, can be obtained by not gauging the Twin Hypercharge and taking this as the only source of Twin Symmetry breaking at a very high scale.

Barbieri, Riccardo; Rattazzi, Riccardo; Wulzer, Andrea

2015-01-01

210

Integrated modeling of climate change and urbanization impacts on water management  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study analyzed the effectiveness of two alternatives for water management under urbanization and climate change scenarios. Climate change and urbanization scenarios were obtained using a statistical downscaling method (SDSM) model and an impervious cover model (ICM), respectively. Alternatives considered for the Anyangcheon watershed were the redevelopment of the existing reservoir and the reuse of wastewater treatment plant effluent. The

E. Chung; K. S. Lee; J. Oh; J. Song

2010-01-01

211

Mars base buildup scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

212

Mars base buildup scenarios  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Blacic, J. D.

1986-01-01

213

Proton Pump Inhibitors Versus Solitary Lifestyle Modification in Management of Laryngopharyngeal Reflux and Evaluating Who is at Risk: Scenario in a Developing Country  

PubMed Central

BACKGROUND Laryngopharyngeal reflux disease can present with a varied symptomatology because of the involvement of multiple sub-sites of the upper aero-digestive tract. It is a very common disease to be encountered in routine practice by both medical and ENT personnel. Its association with multiple pathologies including malignancy warrants an early diagnosis and management. The lack of cost effective and non-invasive tests constitutes a major hurdle in its early management. OBJECTIVES 1. To define the “at risk” population, prone to developing laryngopharyngeal reflux. 2. To formulate major and minor risk factors for the clinical diagnosis of patients with laryngopharyngeal reflux. 3. To evaluate the efficacy of lifestyle management alone as a treatment option. 4. To formulate a treatment protocol for the management of patients and to prevent recurrence. STUDY DESIGN We performed a prospective analysis of 234 patients diagnosed with laryngopharyngeal reflux. Patients were randomized into study and control groups based on the treatment protocol, using a computer generated randomization table and were single blinded to the type of therapy received. A complete analysis of the possible risk factors, symptoms, and signs was performed with statistical analysis. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION The data has helped us define the “at risk” population and formulate the criteria to diagnose cases of laryngopharyngeal reflux, clinically. The results emphasize the non-requirement of invasive or costly investigations for all patients and indicate the probable protocol to be followed prior to considering further investigation. The role of long term proton pump inhibitor treatment along with lifestyle modification in the initial phase of treatment, as mentioned in the literature, was re-confirmed by our study. However, in addition to the initial treatment, the study establishes the need for continuing lifestyle modification further for at least six months after the cessation of proton pump inhibitor therapy to prevent early recurrence of symptoms. PMID:24653653

Chappity, Preetam; Kumar, Rakesh; Deka, Ramesh C.; Chokkalingam, Venkatakarthikeyan; Saraya, Anoop; Sikka, Kapil

2014-01-01

214

Predicting Water, Sediment and NO 3 -N Loads under Scenarios of Land-use and Management Practices in a Flat Watershed  

Microsoft Academic Search

Changes in land-use or management practices may affect water outflow, sediment, nutrients and pesticides loads. Thus, there\\u000a is an increasing demand for quantitative information at the watershed scale that would help decision makers or planners to\\u000a take appropriate decisions. This paper evaluates by a modeling approach the impact of farming practices and land-use changes\\u000a on water discharge, sediment and NO3-N

V. Chaplot; A. Saleh; D. B. Jaynes; J. Arnold

2004-01-01

215

POEMS: A Transformable Architecture for Managing System Overload  

Microsoft Academic Search

In a typical organizational scenario, hundreds of personal computers (PCs) are used mainly for simple office tasks. Typically, a central database management system (DBMS) receives requests internally or externally through an Internet connection that serves as a backend of Web services. The unpredictability and fluctuations of requests could result in the overload of the DBMS. Existing load management systems assume

Wee Siong Ng; Panos Kalnis; Beng Chin Ooi; Kian-Lee Tan

216

Clinical Scenario Clinical Challenge  

E-print Network

Clinical Scenario 1 #12;Clinical Challenge VINCI ­ VA Informatics and Computing Infrastructure #12Phone 4S and 5 2011 may well be the year that AI finally gets real traction in the medical informatics

217

Sensitivity and Scenario Results  

E-print Network

Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

Yu, Winston

218

Strategic learning with scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions

Theo Postma

1997-01-01

219

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

2013-09-24

220

Monitoring and Modeling Land Use Change and Future Scenarios in the Baltimore - Washington Metropolitan Region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent land use change patterns were mapped with Landsat satellite imagery and used to calibrate a model of future land use change in the Washington, D.C.- Baltimore - Northern Virginia metropolitan region. The SLEUTH cellular automata model, which is spatially explicit, was used to simulate the influence of various policy scenarios and land management practices based on a variety of environmental, transportation, and other data sources. The model was calibrated on four urban extent time steps from 1986-2001 Thematic Mapper imagery and a new impervious surface mapping algorithm developed by the mid-Atlantic Regional Earth Science Applications Center (RESAC) at the University of Maryland. Future growth patterns were predicted based on variable specific growth coefficients derived during the calibration phase. An excluded layer, which is the primary tool used to model different conservation policies, was manipulated to simulate different land conservation scenarios recommended by Chesapeake Bay restoration efforts, both public and private. The three different regional policy scenarios included current trends, smart growth, and environmentally sustainable. The first scenario incorporated current conservation and land use policies, including currently protected lands and identified Priority Funding Areas. In the smart growth scenario, growth was concentrated around existing growth centers and some additional natural resource protection policies were included. The environmentally sustainable development scenario, in addition to focusing growth into existing centers, implemented stricter controls to preclude forest fragmentation, wetland loss, and development adjacent to riparian areas. Results from these three scenarios were assessed and compared, and the sensitivity of the model to cell size and exclusion probabilities was examined.

Goetz, S. J.; Jantz, C.; Smith, A. J.

2001-12-01

221

Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.  

PubMed

Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

2013-11-01

222

Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

2004-01-01

223

Global biodiversity scenarios and landscape ecology  

Microsoft Academic Search

The composition of ecological communities is both cause and consequence of landscape pattern. Predicting biodiversity change\\u000a involves understanding not only ecology and evolution, but also complex changes in human societies and economies. Scenarios\\u000a offer a less rigid approach to thinking about biodiversity change in a policy and management context. They shift the focus\\u000a of research and management from making singular

Graeme S. Cumming

2007-01-01

224

Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through to eventual disposal. By varying the specifications of the deployment scenario, the simulated annealing algorithm will seek to either minimize the value of a single objective function, or enumerate the trade-off surface between multiple competing objective functions. The available objective functions represent key stakeholder values, minimizing such important factors as high-level waste disposal burden, required uranium ore supply, relative proliferation potential, and economic cost and uncertainty. The optimization program itself is designed to be modular, allowing for continued expansion and exploration as research needs and curiosity indicate. The utility and functionality of this optimization program are demonstrated through its application to one potential fuel cycle scenario of interest. In this scenario, an existing legacy LWR fleet is assumed at the year 2000. The electric power demand grows exponentially at a rate of 1.8% per year through the year 2100. Initially, new demand is met by the construction of 1-GW(e) LWRs. However, beginning in the year 2040, 600-MW(e) sodium-cooled, fast-spectrum reactors operating in a transuranic burning regime with full recycling of spent fuel become available to meet demand. By varying the fraction of new capacity allocated to each reactor type, the optimization program is able to explicitly show the relationships that exist between uranium utilization, long-term heat for geologic disposal, and cost-of-electricity objective functions. The trends associated with these trade-off surfaces tend to confirm many common expectations about the use of nuclear power, namely that while overall it is quite insensitive to variations in the cost of uranium ore, it is quite sensitive to changes in the capital costs of facilities. The optimization algorithm has shown itself to be robust and extensible, with possible extensions to many further fuel cycle optimization problems of interest.

Hays, Ross Daniel

225

From a traditional behavioral management program to an m-health app: Lessons learned in developing m-health apps for existing health care programs  

Microsoft Academic Search

M-health applications provide a unique new way to deliver healthcare. Developing m-health applications involves new challenges different from those encountered when developing traditional healthcare programs and e-health applications. This paper describes the development of an m-health application for behavioral migraine management, and presents lessons learned during the development process from software engineers' perspective.

Qing Zhu; Chang Liu; Kenneth A. Holroyd

2012-01-01

226

Winds of change: How will windstorms and forest harvesting affect C cycling in northern MN under different climate scenarios?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forest managers struggle to manage timber resources while integrating the complex interactions that exist among disturbances with the novel conditions produced by a changing climate. To help forest managers better integrate climate change and disturbance projections into their forest management plans, we are using a forest landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II, Century extension) to project carbon sequestration in northern Minnesota under multiple climate change, management and disturbance scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using empirical estimates of aboveground productivity and net ecosystem exchange. Our simulations suggest that windstorms will decrease tree biomass and soil organic matter and will increase dead C, resulting in an overall decrease in total C and C sink strength under the GFDL A1FI climate scenario. However the direct effects of climate change on C via altered production and heterotrophic respiration were larger than the impacts of wind. In contrast, forest harvesting will remain the dominant determinant of C dynamics under A1FI, even under management scenarios of more selective logging and longer rotation periods. Recovery from historic (late 1800s and early 1900s) disturbance - clearcut logging and wildfire - remain an important, though declining, driver of long-term C dynamics. Our research results will inform regional planning efforts and help forest managers evaluate the relative importance of disturbances (e.g. wind) and forest harvesting under a changing climate.

Lucash, M. S.; Scheller, R. M.; Gustafson, E.; Sturtevant, B.

2013-12-01

227

Testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB).  

PubMed

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. PMID:24414807

Lindegarth, Mats; Bergström, Ulf; Mattila, Johanna; Olenin, Sergej; Ollikainen, Markku; Downie, Anna-Leena; Sundblad, Göran; Bu?as, Martynas; Gullström, Martin; Snickars, Martin; von Numers, Mikael; Svensson, J Robin; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa

2014-02-01

228

5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT...MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

2013-01-01

229

5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

...Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT...MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

2014-01-01

230

5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT...MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

2012-01-01

231

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

232

Smoldering - The Fire Scenario   

E-print Network

of upholstered furniture and the mechanisms that control the process that transforms the weak smolder reaction occurring in the cigarette to a fire are still mostly unknown. A general description of this fire scenario and a discussion of its threats is provided...

Torero, Jose L

2000-01-01

233

IPCC SCENARIO DATA  

EPA Science Inventory

This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...

234

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

2011-01-01

235

USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems. Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days, weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

2008-12-01

236

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake  

E-print Network

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;iv Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake

Wilcock, William

237

Scenarios and Analysis for Introducing IPv6 into ISP Networks  

Microsoft Academic Search

This document describes different scenarios for the introduction of IPv6 into an ISP's existing IPv4 network without disrupting the IPv4 service. The scenarios for introducing IPv6 are analyzed, and the relevance of already defined transition mechanisms are evaluated. Known challenges are also identified.

V. Ksinant; A. Baudot; P. Savola

238

Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

Laforcade, Pierre

2007-01-01

239

Scenario of baryogenesis  

E-print Network

Scenario of baryogenesis is considered in which primordial plasma starting from the Planck scale consists of primordial particles being the precursors of electrons and clusters of particles being the precursors of protons. Equilibrium between the precursors of protons and the precursors of electrons is defined by the proton-electron mass difference. At the temperature equal to the mass of electron, primordial particles transit into protons, electrons, photons.

D. L. Khokhlov

1999-01-26

240

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

241

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building  

SciTech Connect

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-07-09

242

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

2014-02-01

243

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

244

Simulating Fire Spread with Landscape Management Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Collectively, landscape structure, fuel loading, and weather control wildland fires. Our objective was to examine the impacts of landscape structure, weather and fire-ignition location on fire spread using FARSITE. We simulated surface fires in the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin, on five landscapes: a control and four harvested landscapes created using HARVEST by varying the amount (2% and 4%) and method

Jacob J. LaCroix; Soung-Ryoul Ryu; Daolan Zheng; Jiquan Chen

2006-01-01

245

Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

2014-10-01

246

EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL  

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

247

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios  

SciTech Connect

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-12-31

248

Scenario-based requirements analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A method for scenario-based requirements engineering is described. The method uses two types of scenario: structure models\\u000a of the system context and scripts of system usage. A modelling language is reported for describing scenarios, and heuristics\\u000a are given to cross-check dependencies between scenario models and the requirements specification. Heuristics are grouped into\\u000a several analytic treatments that investigate correspondences between users’

Alistair Sutcliffe

1998-01-01

249

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.  

PubMed Central

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

250

A ?CDM bounce scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

Cai, Yi-Fu; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

2015-03-01

251

The degenerate gravitino scenario  

E-print Network

In this work, we explore the "degenerate gravitino" scenario where the mass difference between the gravitino and the lightest MSSM particle is much smaller than the gravitino mass itself. In this case, the energy released in the decay of the next to lightest sypersymmetric particle (NLSP) is reduced. Consequently the cosmological and astrophysical constraints on the gravitino abundance, and hence on the reheating temperature, become softer than in the usual case. On the other hand, such small mass splittings generically imply a much longer lifetime for the NLSP. We find that, in the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), for neutralino LSP or NLSP, reheating temperatures compatible with thermal leptogenesis are reached for small splittings of order 10^{-2} GeV. While for stau NLSP, temperatures of 4x10^9 GeV can be obtained even for splittings of order of tens of GeVs. This "degenerate gravitino" scenario offers a possible way out to the gravitino problem for thermal leptogenesis in supersymmetric theories.

Lotfi Boubekeur; Ki Young Choi; Roberto Ruiz de Austri; Oscar Vives

2010-04-07

252

A $?$CDM bounce scenario  

E-print Network

We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

Yi-Fu Cai; Edward Wilson-Ewing

2015-01-28

253

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description  

SciTech Connect

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

254

Robotic tele-existence  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.

Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro

1989-01-01

255

Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

2004-01-01

256

Scenario-Based Tasks  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page from The Experiential Learning Center provides a number of scenario-based tasks for use in the classroom or for professional development training. The materials are freely available for download and use and would be applicable to learners in a variety of subjects including software development, faculty professional development, office system applications/ICT, biology/bioinformatics, environmental studies, Python programming, engineering, network security/MIS, computational thinking and English writing. Instructor guides and other classroom instructional materials are provided. The project requests that educators let them know when these materials are used in order to track dissemination of the work and in order to inform the community about upcoming workshops and presentations.

257

Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various

Shinya Kanemura; Takehiro Nabeshima; Shigeki Matsumoto; Nobuchika Okada

2010-01-01

258

Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ``nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various

Shinya Kanemura; Shigeki Matsumoto; Takehiro Nabeshima; Nobuchika Okada

2010-01-01

259

Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

2012-12-01

260

Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.  

SciTech Connect

In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

Darby, John L.

2007-03-01

261

Genetic Scenarios and Toothpickase  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This unit is a modification of one written by Edward Kloza and Paula Haddow, published by GENESYStems and funded in part by the Foundation for Blood Research. The unit is a series of soap opera type scenarios that present various genetic defects as they are discovered in a make believe family. As each defect is discovered it is discussed and the pertinent information about that defect is given. The characters soon took on a life of their own. They moved to Texas, went to UT, and developed a whole new set of disorders and problems. As I moved into my next unit, the human genome, I found they came along. It seemed that no matter what we were discussing it could be tied into this family in some way. Toothpickase is an activity in which one member of a pair of students, the enzyme toothpickase, is blindfolded and asked to break toothpicks while the other team member records results. Reaction rates, substrate concentration, allosteric inhibition can all be modeled.

BEGIN:VCARD VERSION:2.1 FN:Betty Ann Wonderly N:Ann Wonderly; Betty ORG:The Hockaday School REV:2005-04-19 END:VCARD

1994-07-30

262

Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the Great Lakes simulation model was computationally demanding, the model pre-emption strategy was also utilized in conjunction with DDS to reduce the computational burden. The system with the existing two control structures managed by the current regulation plans was considered as a baseline (base case) of assessment. Simulation results demonstrate that the regulation plans developed can substantially reduce the frequency of extreme water levels and reduce the magnitude of extreme violations in multiple extreme water supply scenarios across the system relative to the base case regulation strategy. The regulation plan was also shown to be robust against other unseen extreme future climate scenarios. Moreover, the system simulation results under various future climate scenarios suggest that even the system controlled by four structures might be unable to fully mitigate the negative impacts associated with extreme water levels.

Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

2011-12-01

263

Commissioning Existing Buildings: A Program Perspective  

E-print Network

5) Number of typical r-Cx and retrofit measures identified during a short audit 6) Building energy management system (EMS) capabilities 7) Owner/management understanding of r- Cx value 8) Building operator availability and commitment 9... of the building energy management system, existence and capabilities of the lighting control system, and general equipment condition. The survey staff discusses the building operation with the site engineers in order to become familiar with its operation...

Jump, D.; Rosillo, A.; Tahir, A.

2003-01-01

264

The changing nutrition scenario.  

PubMed

The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

Gopalan, C

2013-09-01

265

Probing Unification Scenarios with Atomic Clocks  

E-print Network

We make use of the comparison between measurements of various pairs of atomic clocks to impose constraints on coupled variations of fundamental constants in severs unification scenarios. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ${\\dot\\mu}/{\\mu}=(0.68\\pm5.79)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ and for the gyromagnetic factor ${\\dot g_p}/{g_p}=(-0.72\\pm0.89)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ (both of these being at the 95% confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios (which we briefly describe), but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

M. D. Julião; M. C. Ferreira; C. J. A. P. Martins; A. M. R. V. L. Monteiro

2013-09-30

266

Probing unification scenarios with atomic clocks  

E-print Network

We discuss the usage of measurements of the stability of nature's fundamental constants coming from comparisons between atomic clocks as a means to constrain coupled variations of these constants in a broad class of unification scenarios. After introducing the phenomenology of these models we provide updated constraints, based on a global analysis of the latest experimental results. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ${\\dot\\mu}/{\\mu}=(0.68\\pm5.79)\\ti mes10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ and for the gyromagnetic factor ${\\dot g_p}/{g_p} =(-0.72\\pm0.89)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ (both of these being at the 95 % confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios, but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

M. C. Ferreira; M. D. Julião; C. J. A. P. Martins; A. M. R. V. L. Monteiro

2012-12-17

267

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a

A. Wein

2010-01-01

268

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios  

E-print Network

Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels

269

Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

270

Formal Approach to Scenario Analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios offer promise as a way to tame requirements analysis, but progress has been impeded by the lack of a systematic way to analyze, generate, and validate them. The authors propose such a method and apply it to a simple PBX system. Their method has a formal mathematical base, generates precise scenarios, accommodates change, and keeps users involved in the

Pei Hsia; Jayarajan Samuel; Jerry Gao; David Chenho Kung; Yasufumi Toyoshima; Cris Chen

1994-01-01

271

Futures Scenario in Science Learning  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

272

Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources  

Microsoft Academic Search

A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of

Charles H. Eldred; Barney B. Roberts

1992-01-01

273

MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission is currently in phase B and the launch is planned for 2011.

Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

2008-08-01

274

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

275

Usability standards meet scenario-based design: Challenges and opportunities.  

PubMed

The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

2015-02-01

276

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

2009-04-01

277

Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.  

PubMed

Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

Wieck, K Lynn

2007-01-01

278

Eastern Europe scenario  

SciTech Connect

The Russian situation is key to Eastern Europe if present trends continue. Its strategy for the establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle was conceived decades ago when the former USSR still existed. It was based on the fuel recycle with attention given to the requirements of the military. The former Warsaw Pact Countries (WPC) were not meant to have independent fuel cycles, and their irradiated fuel elements were scheduled to go back to Russian territory. In 1976 a fuel cycle center was built at Mayak/Chelyabinsk, centered on the RT-1 plant with a nominal capacity of 400 tonnes/yr plant for the reprocessing of spent fuel from VVER-440 reactors, fast reactors (BN-350 and BN-600) icebreaker and submarine transport units, research reactors, and other power units. The plan provided for the reprocessing of spent fuel from the WPC all having VVER-440 reactors. All together, 3000 tonnes of spent fuel have been processed there. Nuclear waste went to vitrification. A new reprocessing facility is under construction in the neighborhood of Krasnoyarsk 26, the RT-2 plant. It is scheduled to operate after 2005, and its design capacity is 1500 tonne/yr. A storage for 6000 tonnes of spent fuel from VVER-1000 reactors is in operation since 1985. A second mixed-oxide plant for VVER-1000 reactors is under consideration. Now, there are no fuel cycle facilities in the newly independent countries. The fuel cycle problems in Eastern Europe and Russia are discussed.

Hafele, W. [Research Center Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany)

1996-12-31

279

Probabilistic models on contextuality scenarios  

E-print Network

We introduce a framework to describe probabilistic models in Bell experiments, and more generally in contextuality scenarios. Such a scenario is a hypergraph whose vertices represent elementary events and hyperedges correspond to measurements. A probabilistic model on such a scenario associates to each event a probability, in such a way that events in a given measurement have a total probability equal to one. We discuss the advantages of this framework, like the unification of the notions of contexuality and nonlocality, and give a short overview of results obtained elsewhere.

Tobias Fritz; Anthony Leverrier; Ana Belén Sainz

2014-12-30

280

Do Multiquark Hadrons Exist?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The qqqq--- system has been examined by solving the four-particle Schrödinger equation variationally. The main findings are that (1) qqqq--- bound states normally do not exist, (2) the cryptoexotic 0++ sector of this system with KK¯ quantum numbers is probably the only exception to (1) and its bound states can be identified with the S* and delta just below KK¯

John Weinstein; Nathan Isgur

1982-01-01

281

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

282

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

None

1999-09-01

283

Global evaluation of nuclear infrastructure utilization scenarios (GENIUS)  

SciTech Connect

A new and unique fuel cycle systems code has been developed. Need for this analysis tool was established via methodical development of technical functions and requirements followed by an evaluation of existing fuel cycle codes. As demonstrated by analysis of GNEP-type scenarios, the GENIUS code discretely tracks nuclear material from beginning to end of the fuel cycle and among any number of independent regions. Users can define scenarios starting with any/all existing reactors and fuel cycle facilities or with an ideal futuristic arrangement. Development and preliminary application of GENIUS capabilities in uncertainty analysis/propagation and multi-parameter optimization have also been accomplished. (authors)

unzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A. [Idaho State University, 1776 Science Center Dr., Suite 332, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Pasamehmetoglu, Kemal [Idaho National Laboratory, P.O Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415 (United States); Wilson, Paul P.H.; Oliver, Kyle M. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Engineering Physics, 419 Eng. Res. Bldg, 1500 Engineering Dr., Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Turinsky, Paul J.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Hays, Ross; Stover, Tracy E. [North Carolina State University, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Campus Box 7909, Raleigh, NC 27659 (United States)

2007-07-01

284

Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios  

E-print Network

This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses ...

Margolis, Robert M.

1992-01-01

285

Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

1992-01-01

286

Do Black Holes Exist?  

E-print Network

The problem of information loss in black hole formation and the associated violations of basic laws of physics, such as conservation of energy, causality and unitarity, are avoided in the nonsymmetric gravitational theory, if the NGT charge of a black hole and its mass satisfy an inequality that does not violate any known experimental data and allows the existence of white dwarfs and neutron stars.

J. W. Moffat

1993-02-22

287

Managing Use Cases During Goal-Driven Requirements Engineering  

E-print Network

Managing Use Cases During Goal-Driven Requirements Engineering: Challenges Encountered and Lessons and scenario analysis. Keywords Scenario management, use cases, requirements engineering, goals, requirements received widespread attention including HCI, strategic management and software engineering [JBC98

Reeves, Douglas S.

288

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

289

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

290

Can wormholes exist?  

E-print Network

Renormalized vacuum expectation values of electromagnetic stress-energy tensor are calculated in the background spherically-symmetrical metric of the wormhole's topology. Covariant geodesic point separation method of regularization is used. Violation of the weak energy condition at the throat of wormhole takes place for geometry sufficiently close to that of infinitely long wormhole of constant radius irrespectively of the detailed form of metric. This is an argument in favour of possibility of existence of selfconsistent wormhole in empty space maintained by vacuum field fluctuations in the wormhole's background.

V. Khatsymovsky

1993-10-23

291

Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

1992-01-01

292

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

293

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

DOE Data Explorer

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Sullivan, John

294

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Sullivan, John

2014-03-14

295

Target: Privacy Invasion Scenario : You have a meeting  

E-print Network

· · · · Few defenses against malware on smartphones exist Smartphones run full operating system with phone · Rootkits compromise kernel so malware detection is not possible · Smartphone Targeting Rootkits User SpaceTarget: Privacy Invasion · Scenario : You have a meeting Alarm Attack Smartphone Rootkit Concept

Ganapathy, Vinod

296

An integrated approach for the management of demolition waste in Cyprus.  

PubMed

This study investigated the generation and management of demolition waste (DW) in Cyprus. A methodology has been developed and applied for the estimation of the quantities of the waste stream under examination, since quantitative primary data were not available. The existing situation relating to the practices applied for the management of DW was investigated and assessed. Furthermore, a multi-criteria analysis method (PROMETHEE II) was developed and applied in order to examine alternative systems that could be implemented for the management of the DW in the country. In particular, nine management systems (scenarios) were examined, evaluated and ranked according to their efficiency using seventeen individual criteria, divided into four groups (social-legislative, environmental, economic and technical). The ranking of the alternative waste management scenarios indicated that the optimum management system for possible implementation in the island included complete selective demolition procedures and transfer of mixed recyclable materials to the recycling centre and non-recyclable material to landfill. PMID:19039075

Kourmpanis, Basilis; Papadopoulos, Achilleas; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Kourmoussis, Fotis; Stylianou, Marinos; Loizidou, Maria

2008-12-01

297

Description of the Scenario Machine  

E-print Network

We present here an updated description of the "Scenario Machine" code. This tool is used to carry out a population synthesis of binary stars. Previous version of the description can be found at http://xray.sai.msu.ru/~mystery//articles/review/contents.html

V. M. Lipunov; K. A. Postnov; M. E. Prokhorov; A. I. Bogomazov

2007-09-26

298

Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.  

SciTech Connect

Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

Weiner, Ruth F.

2010-09-01

299

Scenario analysis for combat systems  

SciTech Connect

Under the current environment of budget cuts and force reductions, the U.S. Army must determine the resources required to ensure the ability to deal with contingencies throughout the world. Scenario analysis employs an optimization routine to determine the forces required to defeat several specified threats in diverse geographical locations. Uncertainty is assumed and exhibited by assigning probabilities to a finite set of events (scenarios). The optimization routine is a linear program that is executed for each potential event The results identify the forces required to achieve success in each scenario, and includes the resource implications to procure, maintain, and staff the force. The technique has been employed in several studies, mainly to develop up to an armor brigade, using results from approved computer combat models. The results of a study to develop a force to conduct several early entry operations will be presented. For this study, over 20 different combat systems were included in the trade-offs to develop the force necessary to achieve success in three contingencies. Overall scenario analysis shows a substantial capability in providing a fast tool to gain insights in developing a robust threat-based force.

Laferriere, R.

1994-12-31

300

Scenario-Based Requirement Analysis 1  

Microsoft Academic Search

A method for scenario based requirements engineering is described. T he method uses two types of scenario, structure models of the system context and s cripts of system usage. A modelling language is reported for describing scenarios, a nd heuristics are given to cross check dependencies between scenario models and the require ments specification. Heuristics are grouped into several analytic

Alistair Sutcliffe

1998-01-01

301

Artemisinin Scenario Analysis Summary of findings  

E-print Network

Artemisinin Scenario Analysis Summary of findings May, 2009 #12;1Artemisinin Scenario Analysis Scenario Analysis_vfinal for distribution.ppt Key findings Demand for ACTs expected increase to ~275M Scenario Analysis_vfinal for distribution.ppt Agenda Market overview · ACT demand forecast and assumptions

Elliott, Chris

302

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality  

E-print Network

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios and backtracking. It also

Krishnamurthi, Shriram

303

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality  

E-print Network

Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J. We present Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios

Dougherty, Daniel J.

304

Genomics and society: four scenarios for 2015  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper develops four alternative scenarios depicting possible futures for genomics applications within a broader social context. The scenarios integrate forecasts for future genomics applications with key drivers that are shaping genomics. Each scenario is a narrative depiction of an alternative path towards four very different futures for genomics. The scenarios are intended to give the user the a framework

Mark Justman; Clement Bezold; William R. Rowley

2002-01-01

305

Development of the ITER baseline inductive scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sustainment of Q ˜ 10 operation with a fusion power of ˜500 MW for several hundred seconds is a key mission goal of the ITER Project. Past calculations and simulations predict that these conditions can be produced in high-confinement mode operation (H-mode) at 15 MA relying on only inductive current drive. Earlier development of 15 MA baseline inductive plasma scenarios provided a focal point for the ITER Design Review conducted in 2007-2008. In the intervening period, detailed predictive simulations, supported by experimental demonstrations in existing tokamaks, allow us to assemble an end-to-end specification of this scenario consistent with the final design of the ITER device. Simulations have encompassed plasma initiation, current ramp-up, plasma burn and current ramp-down, and have included density profiles and thermal transport models producing temperature profiles consistent with edge pedestal conditions present in current fusion experiments. These quasi-stationary conditions are maintained due to the presence of edge-localized modes that limit the edge pressure. High temperatures and densities in the pedestal region produce significant edge bootstrap current that must be considered in modelling of feedback control of shape and vertical stability. In this paper we present new results of transport simulations fully consistent with the final ITER design that remain within allowed limits for the coil system and power supplies. These self-consistent simulations increase our confidence in meeting the challenges of the ITER program.

Casper, T.; Gribov, Y.; Kavin, A.; Lukash, V.; Khayrutdinov, R.; Fujieda, H.; Kessel, C.; pre="for the"> ITER Organization,

2014-01-01

306

A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands.  

PubMed

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

Haasnoot, M; Middelkoop, H

2012-05-01

307

A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity  

PubMed Central

I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

Leggett, A. J.

1999-01-01

308

A Genetic Approach to Spanish Populations of the Threatened Austropotamobius italicus Located at Three Different Scenarios  

PubMed Central

Spanish freshwater ecosystems are suffering great modification and some macroinvertebrates like Austropotamobius italicus, the white-clawed crayfish, are threatened. This species was once widely distributed in Spain, but its populations have shown a very strong decline over the last thirty years, due to different factors. Three Spanish populations of this crayfish—from different scenarios—were analysed with nuclear (microsatellites) and mitochondrial markers (COI and 16S?rDNA). Data analyses reveal the existence of four haplotypes at mitochondrial level and polymorphism for four microsatellite loci. Despite this genetic variability, bottlenecks were detected in the two natural Spanish populations tested. In addition, the distribution of the mitochondrial haplotypes and SSR alleles show a similar geographic pattern and the genetic differentiation between these samples is mainly due to genetic drift. Given the current risk status of the species across its range, this diversity offers some hope for the species from a management point of view. PMID:22645491

Matallanas, Beatriz; Callejas, Carmen; Ochando, M. Dolores

2012-01-01

309

Future groundwater levels scenarios at the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, BC, Mexico  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this study was analyzed through a regional groundwater flow model the effects on groundwater levels caused by the application of different future groundwater management scenarios (2007-2025) at the Guadalupe Valley, in Baja California, Mexico. Among these studied alternatives are those scenarios designed in order to evaluate the possible effects generated for continue with the mean operations of the current

J. Campos-Gaytan; T. Kretzschmar

2010-01-01

310

Assessing the European wastewater reclamation and reuse potential — a scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A model-based estimation of the wastewater reclamation and reuse potential in a European context is presented, and the effects of different water management scenarios on the appraisal are quantified. The impact of climate change on water availability and variation in the demand pattern and water use of considered countries is the modifying variable in these scenarios. The simulation demonstrates that

Rita Hochstrat; Thomas Wintgens; Thomas Melin; Paul Jeffrey

2006-01-01

311

Scene: using scenario diagrams and active text for illustrating object-oriented programs  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario diagrams are a well-known notation for visualizing the message flow in object-oriented systems. Traditionally, they are used in the analysis and design phases of software development to prototype the expected behavior of a system. We show how they can be used in reverse for understanding and browsing existing software. We have implemented a tool called Scene (SCENario Environment) that

Kai Koskirnies; Hanspeter Mössenböck

1996-01-01

312

Scenario driven requirements analysis method  

Microsoft Academic Search

Application specific scenarios are used to develop a system's requirements-specification document and then iterate through the software development lifecycle. A seamless object-oriented approach is presented, suitable for the development of large real-time systems. It starts with requirements-analysis and specifications definition. It then iterates through the design, implementation, and test phases. The items of interest in each phase of the lifecycle

Wei Wang; Steve Hufnagel; Pei Hsia; Seung Min Yang

1992-01-01

313

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2011-01-01

314

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2010-07-01

315

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2014-01-01

316

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2013-07-01

317

41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

2012-01-01

318

Analysing forest sustainability under various climate change scenarios: a case study in northern Scotland  

E-print Network

: sustainability, forest management, social, environmental, economic indicators INTRODUCTION From providing habitatAnalysing forest sustainability under various climate change scenarios: a case study in northern Scotland S. PIZZIRANI, B. GARDINER, and D. EDWARDS Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin

319

A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The risks and benefits of solar geoengineering, or solar radiation management (SRM), depend on assumptions about its implementation. Claims that SRM will reduce precipitation, increase ocean acidification or deplete stratospheric ozone, or that it must be continued forever once started, are not inherent features of SRM; rather, they are features of common scenarios for its implementation. Most analyses assume, for example, that SRM would be used to stop the increase in global temperature or restore temperature to pre-industrial values. We argue that these are poor scenario choices on which to base policy-relevant judgements about SRM. As a basis for further analysis, we provide a scenario that is temporary in that its end point is zero SRM, is moderate in that it offsets only half of the growth in anthropogenic climate forcing and is responsive in that it recognizes that the amount of SRM will be adjusted in light of new information.

Keith, David W.; MacMartin, Douglas G.

2015-03-01

320

Two scenarios for overcoming drug resistance by co-targeting.  

PubMed

Removal of proteins on an essential pathway of a pathogen is expected to prohibit the pathogen from performing a vital function. To disrupt these pathways, we consider a cut set S of simple graph G, where G representing the PPI network of the pathogen. After removing S, if the difference of sizes of two partitions is high, the probability of existence of a functioning pathway is increased. We need to partition the graph into balanced partitions and approximate it with spectral bipartitioning. We consider two scenarios: in the first, we do not have any information on drug targets; in second, we consider information on drug targets. Our databases are E. coli and C. jejuni. In the first scenario, 20% and 17% of proteins in cut of E. coli and C. jejuni are drug targets and in the second scenario 53% and 63% of proteins in cut are drug targets respectively. PMID:25667386

Taheri, Golnaz; Ayati, Marzieh; Wong, Limsoon; Eslahchi, Changiz

2015-01-01

321

A copula-based heuristic for scenario generation  

E-print Network

journal = {Computational Management Science}, volume = {25}, ... to exist in nancial data (Hu, 2006; Longin and Solnik, 2001; Patton, 2004), or industries with changing trends ...... Product variety arising from hedging in the fash- ion supply ...

2013-08-27

322

Modelling of disaster risk scenarios at La Soufrière, Guadeloupe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As part of the CASAVA project, potential consequences of an eruption at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, have been quantified for the local population and infrastructure through development of an impact model. For a given eruption scenario, and on a 250m grid, the model incorporates hazard information about areas potentially affected by ash fall (vertical loading) and/or pyroclastic density currents (peak dynamic pressure, temperature and duration) sourced from numerical modelling able to describe the transient and 3D features of the phenomena. This is combined with vulnerability information derived from engineering and medical analyses of the exposure and response of humans and buildings to these hazards. Model outputs include maps of the numbers and severity of human casualties and building damage for each given scenario. The impact model is further coupled with a dynamic casualty management model that then tracks the rescue, transport and treatment of casualties to estimate the impact of the eruption on the emergency services and on casualty numbers with time following the eruption. This allows dynamic mapping of human survival in space and time following the eruption scenario and can be combined in GIS with emergency management data to support public officials responsible for planning for a crisis. To identify suitable actions that could be taken to reduce the loss of lives and infrastructure, the consequences from different disaster risk scenarios can be tested by varying the crisis conditions for each model run. For example, by incorporating short- and long-term mitigation activities (e.g. partial evacuation, construction of additional road capacity), differing emergency management (e.g. the location of triage centres) or simulating alternative disaster conditions (e.g. reduced rescuing capacity because of ashy conditions). The models are deliberately generic in nature and could be applied to any volcano, or to other natural hazards, providing input hazard scenarios and appropriate exposure and vulnerability data are available.

Jenkins, Susanna; Spence, Robin; Baxter, Peter; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Barsotti, Sara; Esposti-Ongaro, Tomaso; Neri, Augusto

2013-04-01

323

Co-existence of agricultural production systems.  

PubMed

Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism. PMID:16545877

Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut

2006-05-01

324

Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

Kroeger, P.G.

1989-04-01

325

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs  

SciTech Connect

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-09-19

326

ALTERNATIVE JET FUEL SCENARIO ANALYSIS Final Report  

E-print Network

1 ALTERNATIVE JET FUEL SCENARIO ANALYSIS REPORT Final Report U.S. Department of Transportation Alternative jet fuel scenario analysis report 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Kristin Lewis, Shuchi Mitra

327

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

SciTech Connect

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2006-12-15

328

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.  

PubMed Central

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

329

Visualizing inter-dependencies between scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

One of the main challenges in understanding a scenario- based speciflcation of a reactive system is rooted in the inter-dependencies between the scenarios. These are inher- ently implicit in the very idea of scenario-based program- ming. We introduce a graph-based visualization of such inter-dependencies, and implement it in a tool we call SIV (for Scenario Inter-dependency Visualization), which sup- plies

David Harel; Itai Segall

2008-01-01

330

Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

331

Formalizing Scenario Analysis Peter McBurney  

E-print Network

Formalizing Scenario Analysis Peter McBurney Department of Computer Science University of Liverpool and scenario analysis. 1 Introduction In many domains, the absence of hard data or the presence of conflicting policy determination, and in scientific domains. An early use of the methods of scenario analysis may

Parsons, Simon

332

Preview of Scenario Planning & Collaborative Modeling Processes  

E-print Network

; scenarios help us to plan. #12;Most models include scenarios; and most scenarios are based on models. #12;In Increase (linked to temperature) Moderate Drought Severity, frequency and duration all increase High #12;Drought Severity Duration and frequency change little Patterns change little Patterns shift ­ more

333

Building Scenarios from a Heterogeneous Alert Stream  

Microsoft Academic Search

We describe a realtime algorithm for combining the alerts produced by several heterogeneous intrusion detection sensors into sce- narios. Each scenario represents a sequence of actions performed by a single actor or organization. Our algorithm, which is probabilistic in na- ture, can determine the scenario membership of a new alert in time pro- portional to the number of candidate scenarios.

Oliver M. Dain; Robert K. Cunningham

2001-01-01

334

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS  

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

335

Development and Change through Scenario Planning  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

2004-01-01

336

Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent.  

PubMed

The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

Nishant; Kumari, Renu

2014-07-01

337

Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent  

PubMed Central

The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

Nishant; Kumari, Renu

2014-01-01

338

Evaluation of introduction scenarios for a broadband access network  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The provision of broadband services at a reasonable cost to residential and small business customers is one of the major challenges facing operators. The introduction of cost-effective systems considering the existing infrastructure is an important study. Within the RACE project 2024 Broadband Access Facilities, the economic and evolution aspects of different introduction scenarios of a broadband access system suitable for providing these services are investigated. This paper presents the final results of this study.

Bocker, Geert-Jan; Cuthbert, Laurie; Gobbi, Roberta; Inch, Robert; Sara, Lini

1995-02-01

339

Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates  

SciTech Connect

In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense, 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2013-07-01

340

Life-cycle costing manual for the Federal energy management program: a guide for evaluating the cost effectiveness of energy conservation and renewable energy projects for new and existing Federally owned and leased buildings and facilities. Final report  

Microsoft Academic Search

This manual is a guide to understanding the life-cycle costing method and an aid to calculating the measures required for evaluating energy conservation and renewable energy investments in all Federal buildings. It expands upon life-cycle costing criteria contained in the Program Rules of the Federal Energy Management Program (Subpart A of Part 436, Title 10, US Code of Federal Regulations)

Ruegg

1980-01-01

341

Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC/POC leakage. Based on the modelling results a cost benefit analysis is performed (economics), guiding to the design of environmental policies needed for land use change to come true.

Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

2014-05-01

342

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.  

PubMed

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID:24361447

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

343

Industrial research for transmutation scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

2011-04-01

344

Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans  

SciTech Connect

This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

2007-06-01

345

Future waste treatment and energy systems--examples of joint scenarios.  

PubMed

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project. PMID:23932196

Münster, M; Finnveden, G; Wenzel, H

2013-11-01

346

Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration.  

SciTech Connect

As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these chal- lenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in %22cloud%22 computing and %22big-data%22 methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing envirnoment that could provide the foundation (i.e. %22cloud%22) for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of %22parallel multi-simulation%22. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; Jungels, John; Oppel, Fred J., [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

2015-01-01

347

Hospitals in the year 2000: a scenario.  

PubMed

Hospitals came into the twentieth century as creations of local, usually altruistic, interests and wrestled with accelerating change throughout the decades. Their success brought third-party financing, employee health plans, and government guarantees for charity care. Success seemed to breed success, and they raced ahead with capital investment in bricks, mortar, and high technology, only to find themselves in increasing trouble as 1990 approached. Writing from the precarious perch of the year 2000, the author views the worsening hospital situation and raises questions about the contradictions of federal interventions, the efforts to create "systems," the plight of small hospitals, and the love-hate role of medical staffs. Offered for consideration is a scenario of a health care crisis in the early 1990s comparable to the savings and loan crisis of 1988. However, this time the federal intervention is not simply in dollars, but, instead, brings on a "health for all" program with national financing and decentralized "district health" management. As in other nations of the world, hospitals become an integral part of the commitment to attack the root causes of ill health. PMID:10296999

Foster, J T

1989-01-01

348

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT & INCIDENT CONTROL  

Microsoft Academic Search

eading training & training management provider, RGIT Montrose provides emergency response and incident control training and assessment for the energy industries on a worldwide basis. Realising that taking control in a real emergency is not an easy task for anyone they have developed purpose built emergency management simulators to re-create potential emergency scenarios which are used to train managers and

RGIT Montrose

349

Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.  

PubMed

The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

2014-11-28

350

Knowledge sharing in the health scenario  

PubMed Central

The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

2014-01-01

351

Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation  

PubMed Central

Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

2013-01-01

352

On Improving Perceived User Throughput in Heterogeneous HSPA, GERAN and WLAN Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper considers a heterogeneous radio access network scenario where different radio access technologies (RATs) are jointly managed. Different RAT selection algorithms are evaluated for both downlink and uplink transmissions, where the basic strategies of the algorithms are based on operator QoS policies. The total perceived system throughput gain from common radio resource management (CRRM) compared to a manual RAT

R. Ljung; O. Sallent; J. Perez-Romero

2007-01-01

353

Dark Radiation and interacting scenarios  

E-print Network

An extra dark radiation component can be present in the universe in the form of sterile neutrinos, axions or other very light degrees of freedom which may interact with the dark matter sector. We derive here the cosmological constraints on the dark radiation abundance, on its effective velocity and on its viscosity parameter from current data in dark radiation-dark matter coupled models. The cosmological bounds on the number of extra dark radiation species do not change significantly when considering interacting schemes. We also find that the constraints on the dark radiation effective velocity are degraded by an order of magnitude while the errors on the viscosity parameter are a factor of two larger when considering interacting scenarios. If future Cosmic Microwave Background data are analysed assuming a non interacting model but the dark radiation and the dark matter sectors interact in nature, the reconstructed values for the effective velocity and for the viscosity parameter will be shifted from their standard 1/3 expectation, namely ceff=0.34 (+0.006 -0.003) and cvis=0.29 (+0.002 -0.001) at 95% CL for the future COrE mission data.

Roberta Diamanti; Elena Giusarma; Olga Mena; Maria Archidiacono; Alessandro Melchiorri

2012-12-25

354

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis of flood risks in aging-dam management in China: a framework and case study.  

PubMed

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-05-01

355

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study  

PubMed Central

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

356

Framework for model independent analyses of multiple extra quark scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analyses so as to set bounds on new quark resonances. In particular, we report on the re-interpretation of the existing limits on benchmark scenarios with one and multiple pair-produced top partners having non-exclusive couplings to the third Standard Model generation of quarks.

Barducci, Daniele; Belyaev, Alexander; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

2014-12-01

357

Framework for Model Independent Analyses of Multiple Extra Quark Scenarios  

E-print Network

In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analyses so as to set bounds on new quark resonances. In particular, we report on the re-interpretation of the existing limits on benchmark scenarios with one and multiple pair-produced top partners having non-exclusive couplings to the third Standard Model generation of quarks.

D. Barducci; A. Belyaev; M. Buchkremer; G. Cacciapaglia; A. Deandrea; S. De Curtis; J. Marrouche; S. Moretti; L. Panizzi

2014-12-08

358

Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?  

SciTech Connect

Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the standard model gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate the possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

Kanemura, Shinya; Nabeshima, Takehiro [Department of Physics, University of Toyama, Toyama 930-8555 (Japan); Matsumoto, Shigeki; Okada, Nobuchika [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487 (United States)

2010-09-01

359

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

360

The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach  

PubMed Central

We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

361

Towards proving the existence of \\  

Microsoft Academic Search

We show that information-theoretically secure key agreement and quantum distillation are strongly related. This leads to new evidence for the existence of bound information, i.e. correlated information not useful for the generation of a secret key.

Renato Renner; Stefan Wolf

2002-01-01

362

Performance Contracting with Existing Staff  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The author outlines several methods for providing bonus or performance criteria pay" as a means for encouraging deeper involvement of existing teaching staff in a kind of performance contracting." (Author/AA)

Johnson, W. Frank

1971-01-01

363

Biosolids - a fuel or a waste? An integrated appraisal of five co-combustion scenarios with policy analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

An integrated appraisal of five technology scenarios for the co-combustion of biosolids in the UK energy and waste management policy context is presented. Co-combustion scenarios with coal, municipal solid waste, wood, and for cement manufacture were subject to thermodynamic and materials flow modeling and evaluated by 19 stakeholder representatives. All scenarios provided a net energy gain (0.58-5.0 kWh\\/kg dry solids),

Elise Cartmell; Peter Gostelow; Drusilla Riddell-Black; Nigel Simms; John Oakey; Joe Morris; Paul Jeffrey; Peter Howsam; Simon J. Pollard

2006-01-01

364

Identity Management CyberCIEGE Identity Management  

E-print Network

finally going through it making what you believe are the correct choices. This scenario explores typically include VPN clients. 1.3 Clean Up The "View Log" button lets you view a log of what occurredIdentity Management CyberCIEGE Identity Management CyberCIEGE is an information assurance (IA

365

Integrated Scenarios Analysis for the California Water Plan Update  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Sierra Nevada Mountain Range is the water tower of California - providing drinking water for the state's large urban areas and irrigation for much of the state's vast agricultural land. Presently, Sierra snowpack accounts for approximately half of the surface water storage in the state. Current projections forecast that this snowpack may decline by 70 to 90 percent over the next century, threatening California's water supply. At the same time, by the year 2050 changes in water demands due to trends in population and land use are projected to range from a 3 percent decrease to a 7 percent increase over average 1998-2005 demands (80.1 million acre-feet). Choosing appropriate management policies and/or interventions in the face of this uncertainty is challenging to say the least. As such, we have developed an integrated water basin analysis tool, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, that allows for the evaluation of different combinations of proposed adaptation strategies (response packages) across the range of uncertainties (climate, population, and land use). The tool focuses on two hydrologic regions (Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins) that encompass the bulk of the Sierra Nevada runoff. The tool integrates hydrologic processes into a water resources modeling framework such that climatic inputs can be used to drive the model. We have used this feature to evaluate the impacts on water supplies (through changes in snow melt and runoff patterns) and water demands (through changes in crop evapotranspiration) under twelve climate change projections (2 GHG emission scenarios x 6 GCM's). These scenarios were combined with three demographic and land use projections to produce 36 scenarios, which were the basis for evaluating the effectiveness of different response packages. This study demonstrated that the use of an integrated tool to conduct scenarios analysis is an effective means of identifying robust strategies for water resources planning and management in the face of uncertainty.

Joyce, B. A.; Yates, D.; Groves, D.; Draper, A.; Juricich, R.; Purkey, D.

2010-12-01

366

Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals  

SciTech Connect

Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

2008-10-03

367

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

368

Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

369

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

370

Grammar-Based Optimization of Synthesis Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Systems for multi-level logic optimization are usu- ally based on a set of specialized, loosely-related trans- formations which work on a network representation. The sequence of transformations in a synthesis scenario (script) is crucial for the performance of the whole sys- tem. This paper presents the application of a genetic algorithm for automatic tuning of scenarios, and there- fore an

Andreas Kuehlmann; Lukas P. P. P. Van Ginneken

1994-01-01

371

FAST plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we present the fusion advanced studies torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of plasma-wall interaction, burning plasma physics, ITER relevant operation problems and steady state scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both

G. Calabrò; F. Crisanti; G. Ramogida; R. Albanese; A. Cardinali; A. Cucchiaro; G. Granucci; G. Maddaluno; M. Marinucci; S. Nowak; A. Pizzuto; V. Pericoli Ridolfini; A. Pironti; A. A. Tuccillo; F. Zonca

2009-01-01

372

Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a  

E-print Network

DEMAND Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future #12;#12;TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES SERIES: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future Government or any agency thereof. #12;iv ABOUT THE TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES PROJECT This is one

373

Scenario Sets, Risk Measures and Stress Testing  

E-print Network

, Scenario Sets, Risk Measures and Stress Testing Alexander J. McNeil1 1 Heriot-Watt University.D. Smith, R. Frey and E. Giorgi. AJM (HWU) Scenario Sets, Risk Measures and Stress Testing Newton SYR 2014 Measures and Stress Testing Newton SYR 2014 2 / 63 #12;, Overview 1 Introduction: Risk Measures

Wirosoetisno, Djoko

374

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

375

The Case Study Approach to Scenario Planning  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that organizations use to develop flexible long-term plans. The authors, experienced in case study design, development, and method for teaching in an MBA program, used the case study approach to create a scenario planning strategy to analyze a company's product and move the company through its decision-making dilemmas. The case study is a

A. Gregory Stone

2006-01-01

376

Component ecological footprint: developing sustainable scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The component ecological footprint is presented and its value as a regional planning tool is demonstrated. The component ecological footprint of waste, transport, energy, water, bio-resources is calculated for Guernsey (Channel Islands). This tool also has the ability to be used to develop scenarios for a sustainable future. A detailed scenario for passenger transport on Guernsey is presented demonstrating that

John Barrett

2001-01-01

377

Scenario Authoring for Virtual Environments Michael Booth  

E-print Network

attacked the problems of author­ ing scenarios or stories involving agents with a broader set of skills for driving experiments, in­ cluding the influence of drugs, disease, and dis­ abilities on driving --- and active behavior --- motor, task, and scenario control of complex multibody en­ tities such as humans

Cremer, James

378

Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the

Osvaldo E. Sala; F. Stuart Chapin III; Juan J. Armesto; Eric Berlow; Janine Bloomfield; Rodolfo Dirzo; Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald; Laura F. Huenneke; Robert B. Jackson; David M. Lodge; Harold A. Mooney; N. LeRoy Poff; Martin T. Sykes; Brian H. Walker; Diana H. Wall

2000-01-01

379

Fusing a Heterogeneous Alert Stream into Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

An algorithm for fusing the alerts produced by multiple heterogeneous intrusion detection systems is pre- sented. The algorithm runs in realtime, combining the alerts into scenarios; each is composed of a sequence of alerts produced by a single actor or organization. The software is capable of discovering scenarios even if stealthy attack methods, such as forged IP addresses or long

Oliver Dain; Robert K. Cunningham

2001-01-01

380

Social assessment of waste energy utilization scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) constructed four energy scenarios for the year 2005 and 2020 referring to the German State of Baden-Württemberg. All these scenarios are based on the promise of the German government to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions by 25% in the year 2005, and there is a commitment of a 45% reduction for the year

Ortwin Renn

2003-01-01

381

Scenario Planning at College of Marin.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

382

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.  

PubMed

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. PMID:23708563

Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

2013-09-01

383

Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970-2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export.

Seitzinger, S. P.; Mayorga, E.; Bouwman, A. F.; Kroeze, C.; Beusen, A. H. W.; Billen, G.; van Drecht, G.; Dumont, E.; Fekete, B. M.; Garnier, J.; Harrison, J. A.

2010-12-01

384

Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2013-12-01

385

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.  

PubMed Central

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

1994-01-01

386

Supporting Scenario-Based Product Design: the First Proposal for a Scenario Generation Support Tool  

Microsoft Academic Search

Using concrete stories about product or technology use, or 'scenarios', is a promising design approach. Nevertheless, design practices face uncertainties especially in the activities of identifying, creating and selecting scenarios. Based on a workshop series at a design company, specific problem areas in its scenario practice have been identified. Support is required in: (1) documentation of design information and creation

I. Anggreeni; M. C. van der Voort

2009-01-01

387

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

388

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.  

PubMed

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies. PMID:15246577

Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

2004-08-01

389

The Greenhouse Effect Does Exist!  

Microsoft Academic Search

In particular, without the greenhouse effect, essential features of the atmospheric temperature profile as a function of height cannot be described, i.e., the existence of the tropopause above which we see an almost isothermal temperature curve, whereas beneath it the temperature curve is nearly adiabatic. The relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed temperature curve is explained and the paper

Jochen Ebel

2009-01-01

390

Scalar perturbations in conformal rolling scenario with intermediate stage  

SciTech Connect

Scalar cosmological perturbations with nearly flat power spectrum may originate from perturbations of the phase of a scalar field conformally coupled to gravity and rolling down negative quartic potential. We consider a version of this scenario whose specific property is a long intermediate stage between the end of conformal rolling and horizon exit of the phase perturbations. Such a stage is natural, e.g., in cosmologies with ekpyrosis or genesis. Its existence results in small negative scalar tilt, statistical anisotropy of all even multipoles starting from quardupole of general structure (in contrast to the usually discussed single quadrupole of special type) and non-Gaussianity of a peculiar form.

Libanov, M.; Ramazanov, S.; Rubakov, V., E-mail: ml@ms2.inr.ac.ru, E-mail: sabir@ms2.inr.ac.ru, E-mail: rubakov@ms2.inr.ac.ru [Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 60th October Anniversary Prospect, 7a, 117312 Moscow (Russian Federation)

2011-06-01

391

Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

2004-01-01

392

Scenario of solid waste management in present Indian context  

Microsoft Academic Search

A trend of significant increase in municipal solid waste generation has been recorded worldwide. This has been found due to over population growth rate, industrialization, urbanization and economic growth. Consumerism speed has been found very high covering around more then 50% of total population since last decade due to higher economic growth, which has ultimately resulted in increased solid waste

R. Rajput; G. Prasad; A. K. Chopra

393

Scenario analysis of nutrient management at the river basin scale  

Microsoft Academic Search

A new river basin model (TRANS) for studying the transport, removal and accumulation of nutrients in rivers, lakes and riparian areas has been developed and tested on data from a 115 km2 river basin in Denmark (river Gjern). The model combines catchment information on soil type and land use with a physical hydrodynamic modelling system and several semi-dynamic empirical models

B. Kronvang; L. M. Svendsen; J. P. Jensen; J. Dørge

1999-01-01

394

Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition and Management: The World Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial and construction activities by natural persons which is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population, urbanization, development of social economy, coupled with improvement of living standard have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world. On an average the

TANMOY KARAK; R. M. BHAGAT; PRADIP BHATTACHARYYA

2011-01-01

395

Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition, and Management: The World Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial, and construction activities by natural persons that is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population and urbanization, and the development of social economy, coupled with the improvement of living standard, have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world.

Tanmoy Karak; R. M. Bhagat; Pradip Bhattacharyya

2012-01-01

396

Robust economic MPC for a power management scenario with uncertainties  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents a novel incorporation of probabilistic constraints and Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP) with economic Model Predictive Control (MPC). Hereby the performance of the controller is robustyfied in the presence of both model and forecast uncertainties. Economic MPC is a receding horizon controller that minimizes an economic objective function and we have previously demonstrated its usage to include

Tobias Gybel Hovgaard; Lars F. S. Larsen; John Bagterp Jorgensen

2011-01-01

397

Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.

Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

2012-12-01

398

Curvaton scenario with Affleck-Dine baryogenesis  

SciTech Connect

We discuss the curvaton scenario with the Affleck-Dine baryogenesis. In this scenario, nonvanishing baryonic entropy fluctuation may be generated even without primordial fluctuation of the Affleck-Dine field. Too large entropy fluctuation is inconsistent with the observations and hence constraints on the curvaton scenario with the Affleck-Dine baryogenesis are obtained. We calculate the baryonic entropy fluctuation (as well as other cosmological density fluctuations) in this case and derive constraints. Implications to some of the models of the curvaton are also discussed.

Ikegami, Maki; Moroi, Takeo [Department of Physics, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan)

2004-10-15

399

Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

Hall, Robert J.

1992-01-01

400

Safety in Laboratories: Indian Scenario  

PubMed Central

Health and safety in clinical laboratories is becoming an increasingly important subject as a result of emergence of highly infectious diseases such as Hepatitis and HIV. A cross sectional study was carried out to study the safety measures being adopted in clinical laboratories of India. Heads of laboratories of teaching hospitals of India were subjected to a standardized, pretested questionnaire. Response rate was 44.8%. only 60% of laboratories had person in-charge of safety in laboratory. Seventy three percent of laboratories had safety education program regarding hazards. In 91% of laboratories staff is using protective clothing while working in laboratories. Hazardous material regulations are followed in 78% of laboratories. Regular health check ups are carried among laboratory staff in 43.4% of laboratories. Safety manual is available in 56.5% of laboratories. 73.9% of laboratories are equipped with fire extinguishers. Fume cupboards are provided in 34.7% of laboratories and they are regularly checked in 87.5% of these laboratories. In 78.26% of laboratories suitable measures are taken to minimize formation of aerosols. In 95.6% of laboratories waste is disposed off as per bio-medical waste management handling rules. Laboratory of one private medical college was accredited with NABL and safety parameters were better in that laboratory. Installing safety engineered devices apparently contributes to significant decrease in injuries in laboratories; laboratory safety has to be a part of overall quality assurance programme in hospitals. Accreditation has to be made necessary for all laboratories. PMID:21475492

Mustafa, Ajaz; Farooq, A. Jan; Qadri, GJ; S. A., Tabish

2008-01-01

401

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.  

PubMed

The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process. PMID:21908095

Mazzorana, B; Comiti, F; Scherer, C; Fuchs, S

2012-02-01

402

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

403

A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

Tasinato, Gianmassimo

2015-03-01

404

The EXIST Mission Concept Study  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in scanning mode, interrupted for several orbits per day by GRB follow-ups, followed by a combined pointing-scanning mission phase for optical/IR spectroscopy and redshifts for the large AGN sample found in the survey as well as GRBs and LSST transients. A Team of university, NASA, and industry investigators will conduct the study to determine the full sensitivity and capabilities of this new configuration for EXIST. It will build on the extensive studies of the prior design for the mission and the HET and will incorporate the optical/IR telescope (hereafter IRT) now fully developed by our ITT partner for the NextView Commercial Remote Sensing mission (early 2008 launch) with a focal plane to be developed at GSFC based in part on JWST/NIRSPEC designs. No new technology is needed for either the IRT or HET instruments. The study will pay close attention to full mission cost and present a design for the Decadal Survey Workshop to ensure this even more capable EXIST mission is once again part of the next Decadal Survey.

Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

2008-01-01

405

Cogeneration for existing alfalfa processing  

SciTech Connect

This study is designed to look at the application of gas-turbine generator cogeneration to a typical Nebraska alfalfa processing mill. The practicality is examined of installing a combustion turbine generator at a plant site and modifying existing facilities for generating electricity, utilizing the electricity generated, selling excess electricity to the power company and incorporating the turbine exhaust flow as a drying medium for the alfalfa. The results of this study are not conclusive but the findings are summarized.

Not Available

1984-01-01

406

Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

1997-01-01

407

Existence of the lunar core  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The question of lunar core existence is still an open question. If core existence will be verified by future direct measurements such a core would give constraints to the model of origin of the Moon. A short review of results concerning facts of core existence is given in the report. The most advances in this study were obtained as results of the investigation of Lunar gravity and physical libration. The accumulated data about the lunar gravity are now very wealthy but there is still a great deal to supplement the data about gravity and topography picture on the far-side. Though there are many inferential evidence of presence at the Moon of a core nevertheless the direct experiments on detection of the core and determination of its characteristics are very important. The large prospects in the decision of this problem are opened by the RISE and ILOM projects of SELENE I II mission. Obtained data will allow to improve the physical libration theory of the Moon and together with theoretical and observational libration data they will provide a further study of the lunar interior and as a consequence of its origin and evolution.

Gusev, Alexander; Petrova, Natasha

2005-01-01

408

Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin  

E-print Network

Examines the literature and available data on hydroclimatic variability and change on the Indus Basin plains, comparing historical fluctuations in climatic and hydrologic variables and reviewing scenarios of climate change ...

Yu, Winston

409

FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT  

EPA Science Inventory

Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

410

TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS  

EPA Science Inventory

A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

411

An "acceptable" low carbon scenario for  

E-print Network

An "acceptable" low carbon scenario for France Participatory scenariodesign andeconomic assessment.Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 II.Representation of the transport sector in Imaclim-R France ......................................................................................... 17 III.Acceptable policy measures in the transport sector

Boyer, Edmond

412

Temporal Bayesian Networks for Scenario Recognition  

Microsoft Academic Search

This work presents an automatic scenario recognition system for video sequence interpr