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Sample records for management existing scenario

  1. Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hassan, M Manzurul; Ahmed, Shafiul Azam; Rahman, K Anisur; Biswas, Tarit Kanti

    2008-01-01

    Background Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of information for planning. This paper seeks to document the handling practice of waste (e.g. collection, storage, transportation and disposal) along with the types and amount of wastes generated by Health Care Establishments (HCE). A total of 60 out of the existing 68 HCE in the study areas provided us with relevant information. Methods The methodology for this paper includes empirical field observation and field-level data collection through inventory, questionnaire survey and formal and informal interviews. A structured questionnaire was designed to collect information addressing the generation of different medical wastes according to amount and sources from different HCE. A number of in-depth interviews were arranged to enhance our understanding of previous and existing management practice of medical wastes. A number of specific questions were asked of nurses, hospital managers, doctors, and cleaners to elicit their knowledge. The collected data with the questionnaire survey were analysed, mainly with simple descriptive statistics; while the qualitative mode of analysis is mainly in narrative form. Results The paper shows that the surveyed HCE generate a total of 5,562 kg/day of wastes, of which about 77.4 per cent are non-hazardous and about 22.6 per cent are hazardous. The average waste generation rate for the surveyed HCE is 1.9 kg/bed/day or 0.5 kg/patient/day. The study reveals that there is no proper, systematic management of medical waste except in a few private HCE that segregate their infectious wastes. Some cleaners were found to salvage used sharps, saline bags, blood bags and test tubes for resale or reuse. Conclusion The paper reveals that lack of awareness, appropriate policy and laws, and willingness are responsible for the improper management of medical waste in Dhaka City. The paper also shows that a newly designed medical waste management system currently serves a limited number of HCE. New facilities should be established for the complete management of medical waste in Dhaka City. PMID:18221548

  2. Scenario management and automated scenario generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

    2006-05-01

    The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

  3. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  4. Enrollment Management Study: Five Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albers, James R.; Burns, James A.

    The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…

  5. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  6. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario studies, links to other scenario studies, a forum for discussion on scenarios, a depository on scenario development publications, and a suggested scenario glossary.

  7. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  8. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  9. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  10. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; K?y?k, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novovi?, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1. PMID:25762565

  11. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    PubMed

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153

  12. Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

    2010-12-01

    The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

  13. Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

    2013-04-01

    While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

  14. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  15. Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

    PubMed

    Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented. PMID:26942525

  16. Agricultural water management scenarios to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foglia, Laura; Harter, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In this work we combine different tools to evaluate impact of water management scenarios in an agricultural basin. Here we first develop a spatio-temporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. In a second step, the water budget model is used to provide recharge and pumping values for each field as input for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2005. Results of the simulations obtained by means of the simple coupled soil water budget model/analytical model have been used to select and design with the engagement of stakeholders feasible management scenarios. The latter have been implemented in the numerical groundwater model. Results and insights from both modelling approaches are discussed. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations obtained with the two approaches suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance - stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site specific feasibility studies. The further implementation of the management scenarios into the numerical groundwater model provides details on the local impact of the results and more insights about specific data collection and needed infrastructures in order to practically develop the management scenarios.

  17. Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

  18. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  19. Strategic environmental assessment of alternative sewage sludge management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Poulsen, Tjalfe G; Hansen, Jens Aa

    2003-02-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of sewage sludge management in a Danish municipality (Aalborg), with 160,000 inhabitants using alternative methods for aggregation of environmental impacts was performed. The purpose is to demonstrate the use of SEA in relation to sludge management and to improve SEA methodology. Six different scenarios for management of sewage sludge within the Aalborg municipality involving thermal treatment, composting and landfilling of sludge were evaluated. Environmental impact categories considered were global warming, non-renewable resources (nutrients and fossil fuels) and land use. Impact categories human health, ecotoxicity and soil quality were excluded as methodology for their assessment is not yet fully developed. Thermal sludge treatment with energy utilisation was shown to be a promising option for sewage sludge management in Aalborg. Sensitivity of the relative environmental impacts with respect to calculation methodology and input parameter values were evaluated to identify important parameters and calculation methods. The analysis showed that aggregation procedures, sludge biogas potential and sludge production were very important whereas sludge transport was not. PMID:12667015

  20. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    PubMed

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the corresponding system patterns in terms of the proposed architecture, and make this concrete by presenting some comprehensive interaction examples as comic strip stories. Next, we discuss the implementation requirements and how they can be met with the available technologies, discuss a possible architecture, refine it in the concrete case of the TuCSoN coordination technology, present a subsystem prototype and discuss its properties in the Butlers perspective. PMID:24555169

  1. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, A.; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

    PubMed Central

    Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

  3. Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling.

    PubMed

    Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2010-09-27

    Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

  4. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  5. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  6. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  7. Current Clinical Practice Scenario of Osteoporosis Management in India

    PubMed Central

    Jhaveri, Shailesh; Upashani, Tejas; Bhadauria, Jitendra; Patel, Kamlesh

    2015-01-01

    Background Various osteoporosis guidelines are available for practice. Aim To understand the current clinical practice scenario from the perspective of Indian orthopaedicians, especially about the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, approach to diagnosis and management and patient compliance patterns to long term treatment. Materials and Methods A pre-validated structured questionnaire containing questions (mostly objective, some open-ended) catering to various objectives of the study was circulated amongst orthopaedic surgeons across India by means of post/courier, after giving a brief overview of the study telephonically. Data was extracted from the completed questionnaires, and analysed using Microsoft Excel software. Results The questionnaire was filled by a total of 84 orthopaedicians throughout India. The prevalence of osteoporosis in India according to the orthopaedic surgeons was 38.4% and there was a female preponderance. Most of the respondents felt out of every 100 osteoporosis patients in India, less than 20 patients are actually diagnosed and treated for osteoporosis. The most common initial presenting feature of established osteoporosis cases was general symptoms. Most respondents preferred Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) as the initial investigation for the diagnosis of osteoporosis in a patient presenting with typical features. While most respondents preferred once-a-month oral over intravenous (IV) bisphosphonates, they agreed that IV administration had advantages such as lower gastrointestinal side effects and improved compliance. The average duration of therapy of oral bisphosphonates was the longest (27.04 months) among the other anti- osteoporosis therapies that they used. On an average, the patient compliance rate in osteoporosis management was around 64%. IV Zoledronic acid (ZA) and intranasal calcitonin were infrequently used than other anti- osteoporosis therapies. While concerns about cost and availability deterred more frequent usage, there was an agreement that if used regularly these two agents may improve compliance rates among patients. Conclusion Current clinical practice scenario of osteoporosis management in India largely adheres to various clinical practice guidelines for osteoporosis. Side effects and lengthy duration of therapy with bisphosphonates seem to be the main factors leading to a low patient compliance. Widespread popularization of once-yearly Zoledronic acid and intranasal calcitonin spray may improve patient compliance and reduce side effect incidence. PMID:26557579

  8. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

  9. Space-enabled information environment for crisis management. Scenario-based analysis and evaluation in an operational environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryzenko, Jakub; Smolarkiewicz, Marcin

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents analysis of usefulness of space applications in crisis management activities carried out on the national level. Analytical approach has been based upon development of realistic disaster scenarios and their evaluation with assumption of existence of space-related capabilities available to rescue forces. Building upon analysis's results, the experimental information environment has been developed and it successfully supported commanding of a large-scale crisis management field training. The results prove that many crisis management needs can be served with existing, commercially available products. The key to success lays in understanding operational needs; integration into common information environment; and standardisation of information exchange.

  10. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.

    PubMed

    Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites. PMID:18262405

  11. The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

    PubMed

    Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

    2015-04-15

    Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps. PMID:25638653

  12. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable Document Format file.

  13. Putting watershed restoration in context: alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, A H; Steel, E A; Caras, Y; Sheer, M; Olson, P; Kaje, J

    2009-01-01

    Predicting effects of habitat restoration is an important step for recovery of imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Habitat above three major hydropower dams in the Lewis River watershed, southwestern Washington, USA, will soon become accessible to anadromous fish. We used multiple models to estimate habitat conditions above dams and fish population responses. Additionally, we used scenario planning to predict how habitat and fish will respond to potential future trends in land use due to human population growth and riparian conservation policies. Finally, we developed a hypothetical management strategy (i.e., a set of prioritized restoration projects in specific locations within the watershed) as an example of how a fixed amount of restoration funds might be spent to enhance the success of reintroducing fish above dams. We then compared predicted outcomes from this new strategy to those of six previously modeled strategies. We estimated how the choice of the best management strategy might differ among alternative future scenarios. Results suggest that dam passage will provide access to large amounts of high-quality habitat that will benefit fish populations. Moreover, conservation of existing riparian areas, if implemented, has the potential to improve conditions to a much greater extent than restoration strategies examined, despite expected urban growth. We found that the relative performance of management strategies shifted when fish were allowed to migrate above dams, but less so among alternative futures examined. We discuss how predicted outcomes from these seven hypothetical management strategies could be used for developing an on-the-ground strategy to address a real management situation. PMID:19323185

  14. The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.

    PubMed

    Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

    2013-12-01

    The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

  15. Tailoring Green Infrastructure Implementation Scenarios based on Stormwater Management Objectives

    EPA Science Inventory

    Green infrastructure (GI) refers to stormwater management practices that mimic nature by soaking up, storing, and controlling onsite. GI practices can contribute reckonable benefits towards meeting stormwater management objectives, such as runoff peak shaving, volume reduction, f...

  16. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  17. A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

  18. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  19. Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vajk, J. P.

    1978-01-01

    The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

  20. Teaching Conflict Management Using a Scenario-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callanan, Gerard A.; Perri, David F.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors present a framework for the teaching of conflict management in college courses. The framework describes an experiential learning approach for helping individuals understand the influence of contextual factors in the selection of conflict handling strategy. It also includes a comparison of participants' choice of style,…

  1. Contextualizing Learning Scenarios According to Different Learning Management Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drira, R.; Laroussi, M.; Le Pallec, X.; Warin, B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we first demonstrate that an instructional design process of Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) systems based on a Model Driven Approach (MDA) addresses the limits of Learning Technology Standards (LTS), such as SCORM and IMS-LD. Although these standards ensure the interoperability of TEL systems across different Learning Management…

  2. Design in Practice: Scenarios for Improving Management Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlenker, Lee; Chantelot, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to design in business, Design Thinking has had little impact on the quality of business school education. Building upon the foundations of long-standing critiques of management education and the potential for student-centric learning, the authors propose that the use of Design in Practice can significantly…

  3. Progress and Pitfalls in Global Change Scenario Use for Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2006-12-01

    Water resources was one of the first sectors where focused interest in potential management challenges regarding future climate change was exhibited. This interest was a function of the relatively long planning horizon for water resources infrastructure as well as the centrality of the resource to most human enterprises. As the challenge of climate change draws nearer, use of scenarios for long-term planning has become more critical. To sensibly assess the threats and (sometimes) opportunities that water managers face they need scenarios of climate change and other key future factors (e.g., population, technology, economic development) to determine the climate's future impact on their sector and the factors that influence vulnerability. One key issue in scenario formation (and quantification of uncertainty characterized initially in scenarios) is that of reflexivity, or how to represent decisions within scenarios. This is usually an issue in scenarios of socio-economic development and other factors that influence the development of projections of emissions. One school of thought suggests that scenarios that directly involve human agency should not become part of a probabilistic enterprise, while another suggests that the condition poses no problem for rendering future population, technological advances etc.. This issue will be discussed in the context of water resource management needs for information about the future.

  4. Efficient Key Management for Enforcing Access Control in Outsourced Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blundo, Carlo; Cimato, Stelvio; de Capitani di Vimercati, Sabrina; de Santis, Alfredo; Foresti, Sara; Paraboschi, Stefano; Samarati, Pierangela

    Data outsourcing is emerging today as a successful paradigm allowing individuals and organizations to exploit external servers for storing and distributing data. While trusted to properly manage the data, external servers are often not authorized to read them, therefore requiring data to be encrypted. In such a context, the application of an access control policy requires different data to be encrypted with different keys so to allow the external server to directly enforce access control and support selective dissemination and access.

  5. Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

    The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

  6. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

  7. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

    2015-01-01

    Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most efficient use of resources to achieve lowest invaded acreage in the long-term.

  8. Scenario-Based Distributed Virtualization Management Architecture for Multi-host Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galán, Fermín; Fernández, David; Ferrer, Miguel; Martín, Francisco J.

    Traditional virtual scenario management tools (VNUML, NetKit, MLN, etc.) normally consider mono-host deployment (i.e. the entire virtualized scenario deployed in the same physical host). In this paper, the work carried out in the EDIV project, dealing with the development of a multi-host evolution of the Virtual Network User Mode Linux (VNUML) tool, is presented. Following an overview of virtual scenario-based management, the distributed deployment management architecture, detailing the main components, its interfaces and operations, is described. Additionally, details on the actual implementation and the results achieved so far are provided, assessing the feasibility and advantages of the system. Finally a proposal to evolve the tool towards DMTF virtualization related standards (CIM-based virtualization management and OVF) is outlined.

  9. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Christensen, Thomas H; Simion, Federico; Tonini, Davide; Møller, Jacob

    2009-11-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered. PMID:19837711

  10. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.

  11. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore » employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

  12. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

  13. How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

  14. How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

  15. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  16. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  17. Cattle herd vulnerability to rainfall variability: responses to two management scenarios in southern Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Angassa, Ayana; Oba, Gufu

    2013-03-01

    We examine how the system of grazing management of cattle in savanna rangelands affects the herd response to drought. We have used long-term time series data to evaluate the effects of management on drought-induced cattle mortality using traditional livestock management practices. There was no control of stocking densities, as compared to a government ranch where stocking densities would be adjusted in accordance with available pasture. We tested the responses under two scenarios. Scenario 1: Response of cattle herds to inter-annual rainfall variability (IRV) under a regulated grazing management system; this provides more reliable predictions of cattle population and performance in terms of herd mortality and calving rates than does the communal land use system. Scenario 2: Regardless of the management system, similar trends in cattle populations will be observed in response to IRV. The results of the study showed that fluctuations in cattle numbers, herd mortality and calving rates were highly correlated with IRV, with stronger linear impacts in accordance with scenario 2. In both management systems, cattle herd sizes and calving rates declined during periods of drought, followed by slow recovery. Cattle populations in Borana rangelands in southern Ethiopia did not recover for a period of two decades. We conclude that a management system based on control of stocking densities did not improve herd survival, as compared with traditional drought management strategies. This contradicts common expectations. Increased drought frequencies aggravated cattle mortality and lowered calving rates. The implication of the findings is that regardless of adjusted stocking density, livestock populations in the arid savanna ecosystems of southern Ethiopia remain at risk from climate change. PMID:23054807

  18. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed value. However, this cost was minimal when local conservation actions were part of a concerted coast-wide plan. The simulations demonstrate the utility of using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model within NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, by illustrating an end-to-end modeling tool that allows consideration of multiple management alternatives that are relevant to numerous state, federal and private interests.

  19. Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

    2008-04-01

    To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions. PMID:18488629

  20. Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celić, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgoč, Nedo; Isajlović, Igor; Marčeta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

    2014-05-01

    The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target species, facilitating the development of control measures to achieve a healthy balance between stock exploitation and socio-economic factors.

  1. A modelling approach to adaptive management of water protection forests under climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delaney, C. M.; Eckmüllner, O.; Katzensteiner, K.; Nachtmann, G.

    2012-04-01

    Intact forest stands in humid climate zones are considered to have favourable effects on ground water supply by moderating peak flows and by their ability to filter, buffer or transform pollutants. These functions may be temporarily lost in case of disturbances. The water supply and storage capacity of a forest site is a determinant of both species composition and leaf area. Changing climate, can increase the severity and duration of drought stress events, putting a current forest stand or water supply at risk of deterioration. In such situations, particularly in mountainous areas with shallow soils, adaptive forest management is necessary to maintain optimal ecosystem functionality under changing conditions. To aid management decisions for this purpose, the hydrological model Brook90 has been applied to determine leaf area carrying capacities under future climate scenarios for dominant tree species, at various development stages, on forested sites at various elevations, with various soil types, in the Northern Limestone Alps. Brook90 was parameterized for the City of Vienna's water protection forests and calibrated using climate records for the area. Stress events were identified from model output and used to project leaf area under climate scenarios. Using stand development scenarios, in combination with future climate scenarios for the region, specific leaf area carrying capacities were determined for each unique combination of tree species, forest development stage, elevation and soil type. The model results were used to create a decision support tool for forest managers. The tool is a booklet of charts, which enable forest managers to look up the optimal species combination and leaf area according to the carrying capacity of any given site by using the appropriate chart. Adaptive forest management can be carried out by regenerating a forest stand with tolerant tree species best suited to the site, and by keeping stand density below critical thresholds. The modelling approach allows better understanding of hydrological processes in forests of the Limestone Alps, while the decision support tool aids forest management decisions leading to protection of water supplies.

  2. Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

    2013-01-01

    In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

  3. Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

    2013-01-01

    In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

  4. Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate across research programmes. If implemented using appropriate technologies and harmonized with existing ontologies, this approach enables queries, sensitivity analyses, and visualization of complex relationships.

  5. Modeling shrub encroachment in subalpine grasslands under different environmental and management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Komac, B; Kefi, S; Nuche, P; Escós, J; Alados, C L

    2013-05-30

    Woody plants are spreading in many alpine and subalpine ecosystems and are expected to continue increasing in response to land abandonment and global warming. This encroachment threatens species diversity, and considerable efforts have been deployed to control it. In this study, we combined a lattice model and field data to investigate the efficiency of different management strategies in controlling shrub encroachment in alpine grasslands. The model parameter values were estimated in the field based on the thorny shrub Echinospartum horridum (erizón) which is currently encroaching in central Spanish Pyrenees. Our study shows that encroachment could accelerate if climate warming continues. Different management scenarios consisting of a gradient of livestock pressures, fire events and mechanical removal were simulated to identify scenarios able to control the expansion of shrubs into grasslands. Our study shows that grazing alone cannot stop encroachment. Rather, a combination of grazing and shrub removal (either by fire or mechanical removal) is needed, and our model can help estimate the frequency and intensities of the shrub removal. This model can be used to investigate the consequences of different management scenarios and environmental variability which could be of practical value in the preservation of alpine grasslands. PMID:23542214

  6. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping groundwater levels near the stream higher, and the stream gaining longer into the dry summer period.

  7. Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do Nothing Approach" based on the defined environmental, health, social, and economical criteria, the most important being related to the environment and the economy. The robustness of the achieved ranking of AR management options has been tested by changing the selected criteria, criteria importance and criteria structure. The final analysis shows that all six AR management strategies are better than "doing nothing". The implementation of groundwater artificial recharge with maximum possible infiltration of secondary treated effluent in conjunction with sustainable reuse of the recharged water for agricultural development is the most effective AR solution to the water resources problems of the Gaza Strip.

  8. A GIS-based protocol for the simulation and evaluation of realistic 3-D thinning scenarios in recreational forest management.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chinsu; Thomson, Gavin; Hung, Shih-Hsiang; Lin, Yu-Dung

    2012-12-30

    This study introduces a GIS-based protocol for the simulation and evaluation of thinning treatments in recreational forest management. The protocol was implemented in a research study based on an area of recreational forest in Alishan National Scenic Area, Taiwan. Ground survey data were mapped to a GIS database, to create a precise, yet flexible, GIS-based digital forest. The digital forest model was used to generate 18 different thinning scenario images and one image of the existing unthinned forest. A questionnaire was completed by 456 participants while simultaneously viewing the scenario images. The questionnaire was used to determine the scenic beauty preferences of the respondents. Statistical analysis of the data revealed that the respondents preferred low density, upper-storey thinning treatments and a dispersed retention pattern of the remaining trees. High density upper-storey treatments evoked a strongly negative reaction in the observers. The experiment demonstrated that the proposed protocol is suitable for selecting an appropriate thinning strategy for recreational forest and that the protocol has practical value in recreational forest management. PMID:23062273

  9. Effects of hypothetical management scenarios on simulated water temperatures in the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Risley, John C.

    2000-01-01

    In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Unified Sewerage Agency of Washington County, Oregon (USA) began a cooperative study to better understand water-temperature variations in the Tualatin River and to assess mitigative water-management solutions. Continuous water-temperature data were collected at locations along the main stem of the river and along the major tributaries during the lowflow periods of 1994 and 1995. The 1994 data were used to develop and calibrate flow and water-temperature models characterizing conditions in the main stem. The models were used to simulate 10 hypotheti3 cal water-management scenarios, which would enable water managers to understand the effects of various human activities on water temperatures. Modeling results from the study are presented in Risley (1997); the data collected are presented in Risley and Doyle (1997). This report presents the water-temperature model simulation results of 16 additional hypothetical water-management scenarios using the 1994 and 1995 data. The additional modeling was funded by the USGS and the USA under a cooperative agreement. For a comprehensive description of the water-temperature models and their underlying assumptions, refer to Risley (1997).

  10. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their linkage and the involvement of stakeholders will have to be taken into account when constructing future scenarios of water supply and demand on the islands. First results on scenario studies based on this approach will be presented.

  11. Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

    PubMed

    Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

    2015-03-15

    Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. PMID:25617786

  12. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    PubMed Central

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  13. Communicating worst-case scenarios: neighbors' views of industrial accident management.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Branden B; Chess, Caron

    2003-08-01

    The prospect of industrial accidents motivated the U.S. Congress to require in the Clean Air Act of 1990 that manufacturing facilities develop Risk Management Plans (RMP) to submit to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) by July 1999. Industry worried that the requirement to communicate to the public a "worst-case scenario" would arouse unnecessary and counterproductive fears among industry neighbors. We report here the results of focus groups and surveys with such neighbors, focusing particularly upon their reactions to messages about a hypothetical worst-case scenario and management of these risks by industry, government, and other parties. Our findings confirmed our hypotheses that citizens would be skeptical of the competence and trustworthiness of these managers and that this stance would color their views of industrial-facility accident risks. People with job ties to industry or who saw industrial benefits to the community as exceeding its risks had more positive views of industrial risks, but still expressed great concern about the risk and doubt about accident management. Notwithstanding these reactions, overall respondents welcomed this and other related information, which they wanted their local industries to supply. Respondents were not more reassured by additional text describing management of accidents by government and industry. However, respondents did react very positively to the concept of community oversight to review plant safety. Claims about the firm's moral obligation or financial self-interest in preventing accidents were also received positively. Further research on innovative communication and management of accident risks is warranted by these results, even before recent terrorist attacks made this topic more salient. PMID:12926575

  14. EMI Risk Management with the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabath, F.

    EMI risk assessment is a process for identifying, analyzing, and developing mitigation strategies for risks caused by electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The EMI risk assessment incorporates risk analysis and risk management, i.e., it combines systematic processes for risk identification, and evaluation, and how to deal with these risks. This chapter introduces a novel methodology for EMI risk assessment at system level, the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (TSECA). The TSECA is based on the general principle of the well-established Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), which has been modified to include.

  15. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... Management Areas Boundary Coordinates (1) The boundary of each of the Existing Management Areas is formed by connecting in succession the points at the following coordinates: National Oceanic and...

  16. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... Management Areas Boundary Coordinates (1) The boundary of each of the Existing Management Areas is formed by connecting in succession the points at the following coordinates: National Oceanic and...

  17. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... Management Areas Boundary Coordinates (1) The boundary of each of the Existing Management Areas is formed by connecting in succession the points at the following coordinates: National Oceanic and...

  18. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... Management Areas Boundary Coordinates (1) The boundary of each of the Existing Management Areas is formed by connecting in succession the points at the following coordinates: National Oceanic and...

  19. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... Management Areas Boundary Coordinates (1) The boundary of each of the Existing Management Areas is formed by connecting in succession the points at the following coordinates: National Oceanic and...

  20. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    PubMed

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis. PMID:26675997

  1. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is exceeded, and decreases as the forest regenerates. In all cases, the effects are greatest in small to intermediate sized streams where wood is the dominant driver of channel morphology, and become negligible in large streams governed by fluvial processes.

  2. Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

    2015-04-01

    Humans rely on ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services, namely water supply and water damage mitigation, and promoting forests is a widely used management strategy for the provision of hydrological services. Therefore, it is important to model how forests will contribute for this provision, taking into account the environmental characteristics of each region, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns of societal demand. In addition, ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is one of the aims included in the European Union biodiversity strategy to 2020. On the other hand, forest management for hydrological services must consider possible trade-offs with other services provision, as well as with biodiversity conservation. Accurate modeling and mapping of both hydrological services and biodiversity conservation value is thus important to support spatial planning and land management options involving forests. The objectives of this study were: to analyze the provision and spatial dynamics of hydrological services under two forest cover change scenarios (oak and eucalyptus/pine) compared to the current shrubland-dominated landscape; and to evaluate their spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed (250km2), in northwest Portugal, was used as case-study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services (water supply quantity, timing and quality; soil erosion and flood regulation), and was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments, nitrates and evapotranspiration. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions and field measurements. The maps for each service under the different scenarios were produced at the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) level. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert valuation applied to a land cover map. Statistical correlations between hydrological services provision and biodiversity conservation value were assessed using the Spearman rank correlation. The current delivery of hydrological services in the Vez watershed is higher at the high and low mountain sub-basins, with lower provision in the valley. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and the oak scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine scenario, which performs better for flood regulation and erosion control, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. However, this scenario is the one with more spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value, especially inside protected areas. Several strategies may be suggested for effective land use planning in the Vez watershed. Eucalyptus/pine is the scenario with the best results for flood regulation and soil erosion control, associated to the positive revenues from the pulp production industry. However, cautions should be taken regarding strategies for biodiversity conservation (preferably by favoring native oak species), as well as the potential increase in fire risk. This study highlights SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping hydrological services generated at the watershed scale, therefore contributing to improve the options for land management.

  3. Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

    One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision making.

  4. Impact of peatland drainage and restoration on esker groundwater resources: modeling future scenarios for management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Pekka M.; Ala-aho, Pertti; Doherty, John; Kløve, Bjørn

    2014-08-01

    Esker aquifers are common groundwater bodies in Europe. Management of these aquifers should take account of the sustainability of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and land use in an integrated way. An unconfined esker aquifer in northern Finland was modelled with MODFLOW to determine how groundwater resources are impacted by the surrounding peatland drainage scheme and to simulate scenarios for possible drainage restoration. The impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change were also simulated. A calibration-constrained Monte Carlo method was used to provide information on the uncertainties associated with model predictions. The results suggest that peatland drainage in the vicinity of eskers can have a significant role in lowering the water table, even though climate variability may mask these impacts. Drainage restoration by filling the ditches might have positive impacts on the aquifer water levels. Comparison of water-table changes caused by peatland drainage with the changes brought by water abstraction and climate variability helped to quantify impacts of different land-use scenarios and facilitated discussion with the local stakeholders. Based on this study, more attention should be devoted to peatland drainage schemes in integrated groundwater management of esker aquifers.

  5. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  6. Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities

    PubMed Central

    Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C.; Close, David A.; Cheung, William W. L.

    2016-01-01

    Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge. PMID:26761439

  7. Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities.

    PubMed

    Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C; Close, David A; Cheung, William W L

    2016-01-01

    Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers' knowledge. PMID:26761439

  8. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1996-05-01

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  9. Case Scenario: Perioperative Management of a Young Woman with Fontan Repair for Major Gynecologic Surgery.

    PubMed

    Dell'Anna, Antonio Maria; Grieco, Domenico Luca; Russo, Andrea; Marana, Elisabetta; Antonelli, Massimo

    2016-02-01

    Effective treatment for many congenital heart diseases diagnosed before birth has become available since the last three decades. Continuous improvements in surgical knowledge and techniques have allowed patients born with severe heart defects to survive through adulthood. However, palliative surgery often implies profound modifications of classical circulatory physiology, which must be taken into account particularly when general anesthesia is needed for major noncardiac surgery. Among the palliative surgeries, Fontan repair is an intervention aiming at excluding the right heart chambers with a total cavopulmonary conduit, which directs blood flow from both inferior and superior vena cavae directly to the right pulmonary artery. In such condition, patients are very sensitive to both preload reduction and pulmonary vascular resistances increase, so that a careful monitoring during anesthesia is required. Unfortunately, standard monitoring with a pulmonary artery catheter is not possible because of altered anatomy of right sections. In this case scenario, the authors report the perioperative management of a young woman who underwent major gynecologic surgery, who was managed using a transpulmonary thermodilution technique that was deemed more accurate than noncalibrated pulse-contour method and also able to provide more information regarding preload status. The authors adopted an integrated approach merging together hemodynamic and functional data (ScvO2 and venoarterial CO2 difference) to assess the appropriateness of hemodynamic management. The authors describe also pathophysiologic changes during such condition and also potential drawbacks of chosen technique. PMID:26606173

  10. PCM Climate Change Scenario Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, R. N.; Van Rheenen, N. T.; Payne, J. T.; Hamlet, A. F.; Wood, A. W.

    2001-12-01

    This paper explores the water resources impacts associated with climate change scenarios produced by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin (the Central Valley - CV) in California. Three transient climate ensembles from the PCM are used as inputs to a distributed macroscale hydrology model to produce daily transient streamflow scenarios throughout the two basins for the period 1998-2048. Water resource simulation models are then used to predict, on a monthly time-step, the effects of the climate change scenarios on streamflow timing and volume. In the strongly snowmelt dominated CRB, water resources impacts are associated primarily with changes in precipitation volumes (and secondarily by relatively small temperature changes) that reduce summer water supplies via reductions in winter snowpack. A one-month shift in the hydrologic peak endangers storage efficiencies for the CRB, which currently lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate winter flows in normal years. The shift exacerbates allocation problems during the late summer and early fall, while complicating the management of the flood season. Agricultural withdrawals, hydropower generation and federally-mandated streamflow requirements are threatened. In the CV, the climate change scenario temperature changes are larger than in the CRB, and the CV is affected more equally by changes in temperature and precipitation than is the CRB. Since water allocations in the CV are strongly dominated by irrigation, overall system reliability is reduced by the resulting streamflow timing and shifts and volume changes. The northern half of the CV experiences the greatest loss of snowpack, hence summer streamflows, when temperatures warm. Since the reservoirs in the northern portion of the CV serve agricultural, municipal, and industrial surface water needs for the entire region, even subtle shifts in streamflow timing and volume under current operational strategies pose severe problems. The predicted changes in future streamflows under climate change conditions will decrease reliability for hydropower generation, water supply, releases for fisheries support and flood control. To address these concerns in the CRB and CV, a series of operational alternatives are developed that mitigate future economic, hydropower and environmental impacts on the system. >http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~palmer/ACPI/home.htm

  11. Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.

    PubMed

    Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

    2013-10-15

    A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

  12. Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced that feed the watershed management model under different sensitivity scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Vulnerability is observed on the produced base flows of the moorlands ecosystem due to a decrease in moorlands' area and to climate variability-related impacts during the 50 years of simulation. This system-level vulnerability has significant effects on the water supply available for downstream demand sites, including rural and agricultural users that rely exclusively on a reservoir.

  13. Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

    Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

  14. Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, T.R.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  15. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed VWRS model will account for the blue water component of the system (water taken from the rivers and reservoirs) as well as the green water (soil water used by agriculture), and track water-dependent products and services (energy, mining, crops, and industrial products). The system dynamics approach is used as a simulation environment for constructing the VWRS model due to its ability to accommodate hydrological and non-hydrological variables in one modeling platform. A set of scenarios representing various levels of water availability, combined with a set of various priorities of water uses, will be considered and tested. The scenarios will be evaluated with regard to the overall value of water use. The findings will be used to develop water value-based allocation priorities and reservoir operating rules. This novel modeling tool and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying virtual and value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. In this paper, the first and tentative version of the VWRS model is presented and applied to the Saskatchewan portion of the SSRB. Various scenarios of changes of the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan will be considered and tested to validate the VWRS model.

  16. Using reconstructed streamflow time-series to develop operational scenarios for near-future water management in Tasmania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Patrick; Allie, Stuart; Parkyn, Roger; Allen, Kathy; Goddard, Michael; Ling, Fiona; Cook, Edward

    2013-04-01

    Water resources management requires balancing a wide range of competing social, environmental, and economic demands. The development of realistic management scenarios often depends on limited data with multiple uncertainties. In Tasmania, southeastern Australia, the lack of long-term streamflow time-series reduces confidence in decision-making for water resources management. The longest time-series of measured river flow covers ~70 years, but most monitoring sites have only been operational for <40 years. Here we present a preliminary streamflow reconstruction from a tree-ring wood properties chronology that extends the streamflow record for the second largest catchment in Tasmania by ~500 years. We then consider several analytical approaches to incorporating this reconstruction into water management tools and processes. In particular, we focus on characterising the uncertainties in the streamflow reconstruction to provide a context for droughts and floods in the observational record and ensure adequate coverage of potential future variability in our water management scenarios.

  17. Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Necmioglu, Ocal; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana; Aksari, Dogan; Koseoglu, Aysegul; Ozer, Ceren; Comoglu, Mustafa; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Wächter, Joachim

    2013-04-01

    On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI. KOERI, representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (TWP) responsibilities for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Based on this profound experience KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios in the context of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS activities. However, KOERI's, most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria in order to meet ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for a hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situation in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise. Experiences and results gained with the TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported.

  18. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. PMID:26734840

  19. Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single-Family Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Cummings, James; Withers, Charles; Martin, Eric; Moyer, Neil

    2012-10-01

    This report is a revision of an earlier report titled: Measure Guideline: Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single-Family Homes. Revisions include: Information in the text box on page 1 was revised to reflect the most accurate information regarding classifications as referenced in the 2012 International Residential Code. “Measure Guideline” was dropped from the title of the report. An addition was made to the reference list.

  20. Pregnant women with pre-existing diabetes: family support in managing the pregnancy process.

    PubMed

    Letherby, Gayle; Stephen, Nicole; Stenhouse, Elizabeth

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we report on findings from a Diabetes UK funded qualitative research project concerned to explore daughter/mother relationships during pregnancy and the transition to motherhood of women with pre-existing diabetes. In-depth qualitative interviews took place with 12 pregnant women with pre-existing diabetes and four of their mothers, three (male) partners and one father. The study was exploratory in nature and aimed to consider what support pregnant women felt they needed and what support they received from their mothers and other family members to discover policy and practice needs and identify further research concerns. Here, we focus on one theme from the data: management of the pregnancy process from planning for pregnancy and through pregnancy with specific reference to relationships with family members. Respondents reflect on the relationship between diabetes and pregnancy planning, on managing pregnancy and on their relationships with healthcare professionals. The data suggest overwhelmingly that pre-existing diabetes is a significant aspect of pregnancy planning and pregnancy for women and that managing the pregnancy process is a more positive experience if they have the support of family members. PMID:23268726

  1. Optimizing irrigation management using CropSyst: Solving water allocation problems under Climate Change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meza, F. J.; Maureira, F.; Stockle, C.

    2012-12-01

    Irrigation is fundamental to achieve economically viable yields in Mediterranean and semi-arid areas. Under normal conditions, irrigation systems are designed considering unlimited water supply and in many cases operated at relatively low marginal costs. Total satisfaction of plant water demands is seen as the main objective to maximize crop productivity. This paradigm is currently challenged by higher pressure on water resources as a consequence of economic and population growth, increasing exposure to impacts associated to droughts. In addition, future climate projections for these regions show likely increase in temperature and significant reductions in precipitation that will affect snowmelt dynamics and streamflows. This new scenario requires an efficient management of water resources at all levels, and especially to explore irrigation alternatives to maximize productivity with limited water resources. Crop Simulation models can become a very attractive tool to evaluate ex ante the results of different irrigation strategies. In this study, we used CropSyst to simulate the responses of maize as function of multiple combinations of monthly irrigation decisions. We generated six irrigation treatments that represented a range from 100% to 50% irrigation water demands. Each treatment was evaluated using a series of daily climate in the basin of Limari, Chile. Model results showed that crop productivity can be improved when compared to standard irrigation practices that consider constant irrigation reductions proportional to expected decreases in water availability.

  2. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  3. Managed care's reconstruction of human existence: the triumph of technical reason.

    PubMed

    Phillips, James

    2002-01-01

    To achieve its goals of managing and restricting access to psychiatric care, managed care organizations rely on an instrument, the outpatient treatment report, that carries significant implications about how they view psychiatric patients and psychiatric care. In addition to involving ethical transgressions such as violation of patient confidentiality, denial of access to care, spurious use of concepts like quality of care, and harassment of practitioners, the managed care approach also depends on an overly technical, instrumental interpretation of human beings and psychiatric treatment. It is this grounding of managed care in technical reason that I will explore in this study. I begin with a review of a typical outpatient treatment report and show how, with its dependence on the DSM-IV, on behavioral symptoms and patient 'functioning', on the biomedical model of psychiatric illness, and on gross quantitative measures, the report results in a crude, skeletonized view of the human being as a congeries of behavioral symptoms and functions. I then develop the managed care construal of human existence further by showing its grounding in technical reason, exploring the latter in its modern embodiment and deriving it and its opposite, practical reason, from Aristotle's distinction between technical and practical reason, techne and phronesis. In this analysis of the role of technical reason in managed care, I point out that managed care did not have to develop its rationale de novo but could rather lift its arguments, e.g. the biomedical model, from contemporary psychiatry and simply apply them in a restrictive manner. Finally, I conclude this study by arguing for psychiatry's status as a discipline of practical knowledge. PMID:12516837

  4. Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

  5. Applying waste management scenarios in the Peloponnese Region in Greece: a critical analysis in the frame of life cycle assessment.

    PubMed

    Antonopoulos, I-S; Karagiannidis, A; Tsatsarelis, T; Perkoulidis, G

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to apply life cycle assessment in the waste management sector, in order to compare the environmental performance of different waste management methods. The methods that are studied are: landfilling, aerobic and anaerobic biological treatment, incineration and recycling, focusing on mass and energy balances and the environmental performance of each applied scenario. The Peloponnese Region in Greece was selected as a case for the application of this methodology and more specifically its largest municipalities, where a significant amount of waste is presented. The conducted LCA study proves the necessity of the adoption of an integrated waste management system and indicates its principal objectives by measuring environmental impacts. Thermal scenario contributes significant to the mitigation on the Greenhouse Gases. On the other hand, separation at source and recycling practices provides significant benefits to the abiotic depletion impact. PMID:22961485

  6. Preliminary Analysis of Perfusionists’ Strategies for Managing Routine and Failure Mode Scenarios in Cardiopulmonary Bypass

    PubMed Central

    Power, Gerald; Miller, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Abstract: Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is a complex task requiring high levels of practitioner expertise. Although some education standards exist, few are based on an analysis of perfusionists’ problem-solving needs. This study shows the efficacy of work domain analysis (WDA) as a framework for analyzing perfusionists’ conceptualization and problem-solving strategies. A WDA model of a CPB circuit was developed. A high-fidelity CPB simulator (Manbit) was used to present routine and oxygenator failure scenarios to six proficient perfusionists. The video-cued recall technique was used to elicit perfusionists’ conceptualization strategies. The resulting recall transcripts were coded using the WDA model and analyzed for associations between task completion times and patterns of conceptualization. The WDA model developed was successful in being able to account for and describe the thought process followed by each participant. It was also shown that, although there was no correlation between experience with CPB and ability to change an oxygenator, there was a link between the between specific thought patterns and the efficiency in undertaking this task. Simulators are widely used in many fields of human endeavor, and in this research, the attempt was made to use WDA to gain insights into the complexities of the human thought process when engaged in the complex task of conducting CPB. The assumption that experience equates with ability is challenged, and rather, it is shown that thought process is a more significant determinant of success when engaged in complex tasks. WDA analysis in combination with a CPB simulator may be used to elucidate successful strategies for completing complex tasks. PMID:17972450

  7. A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process. PMID:23311826

  8. Change of soil carbon fluxes in European beech forest under different climate and management scenarios: an example from Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanovi?, Dejan; Orlovi?, Saša; Matovi?, Bratislav; Suckow, Felicitas; Lasch-Born, Petra; Gali?, Zoran; Reyer, Christopher; Gutsch, Martin; Peke?, Saša

    2013-04-01

    Soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature conditions and forest management determine the rate of soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. European beech is one of most important and most abundant tree species in Europe. Forest management strategy influences aboveground biomass as well as belowground biomass and soil organic and inorganic carbon. This study explores how different management strategies (i.e. thinning from above intensities with 10%, 20% and 30% removal of trees every ten years) under three different time periods 1971-2000, 2011-2040 and 2051-2080 of the IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario, influence total soil carbon stock in a beech stand in eastern Serbia. For the simulations, the process-based tree growth model 4C was used. At the beginning of the simulations, the total soil carbon stock was about 85 tC/ha. The most intensive management strategy appears to provide highest carbon fluxes into the soil and the highest total carbon stock values (between 160 and 180 tC/ha) at the end of the simulation periods. All management strategies under the climate of the period 2051-2080 showed the lowest values (about 160 tC/ha). We analyse the interrelationships between management caused changes in litter fluxes and climate (mainly temperature) caused losses of carbon from soil by respiration. In some cases different thinning intensities showed similar fluxes for the same time periods, whereas both climate scenario periods showed quite similar influence for the same management scenarios. The influence of different management strategies on the final total soil carbon stock will be shown.

  9. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials. PMID:23369357

  10. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

  11. Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying and Utilizing an Existing Configuration and Data Management Infrastructure

    SciTech Connect

    VANN, J.M.

    2000-09-25

    The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.

  12. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  13. Modeling scenarios for water resources management in a semi-arid catchment "Merguellil - Tunisia"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abouabdillah, A.; Lo Porto, A.; de Girolamo, A. M.; Sakka, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the Mediterranean climatic zone, also labeled as semi-arid area, hydrological processes are largely variable both in time and space due to the high variability of rainfall regime, the influence of topography and the spatial distribution of geology, soil and land use. These processes may also have changed due to a range of human activities such as land use changes, dams building, soil and water conservations works. Besides, there is a general agreement that global climate change is taking place in the Mediterranean basin. The Merguellil catchment (Central Tunisia), as a typical Mediterranean semi-arid basin, suffers regular water shortage aggravated by current drought with different degrees of frequency, intensity and severity. In addition, the hydrological regime has been changed over the last decade in this catchment. The construction of the large El Haouareb dam (1989) increases the surface storage and evaporations losses. Soil and water Conservation Works (SWCW) (ie. benches terraces) and others small and large dams have altered the hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-2000) model was used in order to simulate the water and nutrient balance at the catchment scale. The simulation results revealed that evapotranspiration is the major component (91%) of the hydrological balance. Hydrological Calibration (1992-1994) and validation (1996-1998) have been carried out referring to a daily flow data at the Hafouz flowgage. The model performance was satisfactory and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranges between 0.3 to 0.5. The water quality simulation shows that Phosphorus simulated concentrations better matched existing measurements. In order to improve the availability of high quality water, three scenarios were generated. Firstly, the total or partial removal of SWCWs from the upstream area has shown an increase of the surface runoff and sediment loading at the outlet. Secondly, by reducing 20% in the applied fertilizers, no change was detected in the crop yield, whereas on a yearly scale, it has been noted a reduction in sediment and nutrient loads. Finally to assess the potential impact of climate change, the predicted precipitations and temperatures (for 2020, 2050 and 2080) from the general circulation model HadCm3 developed by UK Hadley Center for climatic prediction and research, were used. All the components of the water and nutrient balance are foreseen to decrease. A longer arid period in summer is also predicted leading to a decrease of the sediment and nutrient load in that period.

  14. A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

  15. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET) structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Johanson, Richard B; Menon, Vijay; Burns, Ethel; Kargramanya, Eduard; Osipov, Vardges; Israelyan, Musheg; Sargsyan, Karine; Dobson, Sarah; Jones, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET)) and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia). Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188) than before (85–129.5). In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery). Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review. PMID:12020355

  16. Surface extra-vehicular activity emergency scenario management: Tools, procedures, and geologically related implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zea, Luis; Diaz, Alejandro R.; Shepherd, Charles K.; Kumar, Ranganathan

    2010-07-01

    Extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) are an essential part of human space exploration, but involve inherently dangerous procedures which can put crew safety at risk during a space mission. To help mitigate this risk, astronauts' training programs spend substantial attention on preparing for surface EVA emergency scenarios. With the help of two Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) crews (61 and 65), wearing simulated spacesuits, the most important of these emergency scenarios were examined at three different types of locations that geologically and environmentally resemble lunar and Martian landscapes. These three platforms were analyzed geologically as well as topographically (utilizing a laser range finder with slope estimation capabilities and a slope determination software). Emergency scenarios were separated into four main groups: (1) suit issues, (2) general physiological, (3) attacks and (4) others. Specific tools and procedures were developed to address each scenario. The tools and processes were tested in the field under Mars-analog conditions with the suited subjects for feasibility and speed of execution.

  17. Administrative Problem-Solving for Writing Programs and Writing Centers: Scenarios in Effective Program Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myers-Breslin, Linda

    Addressing the issues and problems faced by writing program administrators (WPAs) and writing center directors (WCDs), and how they can most effectively resolve the political, pedagogical, and financial questions that arise, this book presents essays from experienced WPAs and WCDs at a wide variety of institutions that offer scenarios and case…

  18. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

  19. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

  20. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    PubMed

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest ecosystems over the future. PMID:26522278

  1. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. PMID:24161647

  2. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  3. Behavioral and environmental influences on fishing rewards and the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for large tropical rivers.

    PubMed

    Hallwass, Gustavo; Lopes, Priscila F M; Juras, Anastácio A; Silvano, Renato A M

    2013-10-15

    Identifying the factors that influence the amount of fish caught, and thus the fishers' income, is important for proposing or improving management plans. Some of these factors influencing fishing rewards may be related to fishers' behavior, which is driven by economic motivations. Therefore, those management rules that have less of an impact on fishers' income could achieve better acceptance and compliance from fishers. We analyzed the relative influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on fish catches (biomass) in fishing communities of a large tropical river. We then used the results from this analysis to propose alternative management scenarios in which we predicted potential fishers' compliance (high, moderate and low) based on the extent to which management proposals would affect fish catches and fishers' income. We used a General Linear Model (GLM) to analyze the influence of environmental (fishing community, season and habitat) and socioeconomic factors (number of fishers in the crew, time spent fishing, fishing gear used, type of canoe, distance traveled to fishing grounds) on fish catches (dependent variable) in 572 fishing trips by small-scale fishers in the Lower Tocantins River, Brazilian Amazon. According to the GLM, all factors together accounted for 43% of the variation in the biomass of the fish that were caught. The behaviors of fishers' that are linked to fishing effort, such as time spent fishing (42% of the total explained by GLM), distance traveled to the fishing ground (12%) and number of fishers (10%), were all positively related to the biomass of fish caught and could explain most of the variation on it. The environmental factor of the fishing habitat accounted for 10% of the variation in fish caught. These results, when applied to management scenarios, indicated that some combinations of the management measures, such as selected lakes as no-take areas, restrictions on the use of gillnets (especially during the high-water season) and individual quotas larger than fishers' usual catches, would most likely have less impact on fishers' income. The proposed scenarios help to identify feasible management options, which could promote the conservation of fish, potentially achieving higher fishers' compliance. PMID:23764509

  4. Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, D. G.

    2003-02-26

    This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances.

  5. 77 FR 22337 - Privacy Act of 1974; Amendment to an Existing System of Records, Inventory Management System Also...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-13

    ... URBAN DEVELOPMENT Privacy Act of 1974; Amendment to an Existing System of Records, Inventory Management..., Inventory Management System (IMS), also known as the Public and Indian Housing (PIH) Information Center (PIC.... This notice supersedes the previously published notice on October 6, 2008, at 73 FR 58256....

  6. CO2 deserts: implications of existing CO2 supply limitations for carbon management.

    PubMed

    Middleton, Richard S; Clarens, Andres F; Liu, Xiaowei; Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan S

    2014-10-01

    Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change will require deep reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the scale of gigatonnes per year. CO2 capture and utilization and/or storage technologies are a class of approaches that can substantially reduce CO2 emissions. Even though examples of this approach, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, are already being practiced on a scale >0.05 Gt/year, little attention has been focused on the supply of CO2 for these projects. Here, facility-scale data newly collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was processed to produce the first comprehensive map of CO2 sources from industrial sectors currently supplying CO2 in the United States. Collectively these sources produce 0.16 Gt/year, but the data reveal the presence of large areas without access to CO2 at an industrially relevant scale (>25 kt/year). Even though some facilities with the capability to capture CO2 are not doing so and in some regions pipeline networks are being built to link CO2 sources and sinks, much of the country exists in "CO2 deserts". A life cycle analysis of the sources reveals that the predominant source of CO2, dedicated wells, has the largest carbon footprint further confounding prospects for rational carbon management strategies. PMID:25137398

  7. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration in the southwest

  8. Nasal Foreign Bodies: A Review of Management Strategies and a Clinical Scenario Presentation

    PubMed Central

    Patil, Pavan M.; Anand, Rajeev

    2011-01-01

    We report a case of a toothbrush head lodged into the nasal cavity, which required an external rhinoplasty for retrieval. A review of the literature on management strategies in case of nasal foreign bodies is presented. PMID:22379507

  9. Fishing management scenarios to rebuild exploited resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic (Mediterranean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fouzai, Nadia; Coll, Marta; Palomera, Isabel; Santojanni, Alberto; Arneri, Enrico; Christensen, Villy

    2012-10-01

    We examined various fishing management options to recover exploited marine resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea. Dynamic simulations were based on a spatial ecological model previously calibrated with time series of data. Scenarios regarding spatial management were evaluated with the establishment of two marine protected areas, respectively, in the Pomo pit and the northern region. In addition, three temporal simulations of temporary closures and overall reduction of fishing effort of demersal and pelagic fleets (bottom, mid-water trawls and purse seines) were also considered. Simulations were run for 45 years (1975-2020), including the calibration period (1975-2002), and changes in biomass and catch of marine resources were analyzed. Our results confirm that current fishing management in the Adriatic Sea does not have clear beneficial impacts for the recovery of exploited resources, which will remain depleted in 2020 if "business as usual" continues. Simulations of alternative management suggest that both protected areas could be beneficial for fish population recovery predicting an increase in the biomass of commercial fish and predatory organisms. Simulations of temporary closures and overall reduction of fishing effort also show significant benefits for several commercial resources. We argue that both management measures may be effective tools to recover exploited ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea and halt the decline of marine resources.

  10. Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with a few modifications, may help address the complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

  11. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

    PubMed

    Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. PMID:25837786

  12. Pomace waste management scenarios in Québec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

    2011-09-15

    Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. PMID:21733627

  13. Water management in the Basin of Mexico: current state and alternative scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrera-Hernández, Jaime J.; Gaskin, S. J.

    2009-09-01

    Water management policies in the Basin of Mexico, where Mexico City and its nearly 20 million inhabitants live, are analyzed. After a brief description of how water has been managed, possible water management plans that would change water management practices in the Basin are discussed and a call is made for a change in the defensive attitude towards water taken to date. As the aquifer’s replacement cost is considered to be the proxy for the implementation of water tariffs, this is determined, based on the cost of future water sources, and found to be 0.65-0.72 USD/m3. This is twice the amount currently charged in the Federal District (0.34 USD/m3), where 45% of the City's domestic water users are found. As another alternative, the development of an artificial recharge program is also analyzed and found to be a plausible way to increase water supply at a unitary cost of 0.605 USD/m3. Despite the presence of these alternatives, it is suggested that water management in the Basin needs to change from a water supply approach to a water demand approach.

  14. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  15. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the restrictions on study sites by nature conversation on the maps data about nature protected objects and buffer zones or forming restricted areas around those objects. The results will indicate the utilization possibility and most sustainable scenarios for different land use cases. Moreover, the possible changes in soil functioning accordingly to site specific soil conditions will be discussed and presented.

  16. Effectiveness of alternative management scenarios on the sediment load in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The AnnAGNPS model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management Practices (MPs) on soil erosion and sediment load in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2) located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was previously calibrated and validated using f...

  17. Night of the living color: horror scenarios in color management land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammens, Johan M.

    1998-12-01

    An ICC-based color management is becoming increasingly feasible and its picking up support from all the major high end design and pre-press applications as well as hardware manufacturers. In addition, the new sRGB standard is emerging as a way to effectively do 'color management for the masses', and is being supported by many leading manufacturers as well. While there certainly remain serious technical issues to address for both ICC and sRGB color management, it seems that the main problem users are facing today is how to integrate all components of their workflow into a seamless system, and how to configured each component to work well with all the others. This paper takes a brief look at the history of color management for a workflow perspective, and attempts to analyze how to compose and configured a quadruple color conversions can become a terrific nightmare. Some of the many ways to get the wrong results are briefly illustrated, as well as a few ways to get the right results. Finally, some technical recommendations are offered for how to improve the situation from a user point of view.

  18. Role of Exercise in the Management of Diabetes Mellitus: the Global Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Thent, Zar Chi; Das, Srijit; Henry, Leonard Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Background Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. Methods Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms “type 2 diabetes mellitus,” “type 2 DM,” “exercise,” and/or “physical activity,” and “type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise.” Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. Results Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%). Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA) showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. Conclusion Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM. PMID:24236181

  19. Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 solar radiation management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Ben; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the effectiveness and the regional inequalities of solar radiation management (SRM) in compensating for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze the results from Earth System Models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Each experiment produces 50 model yrs of simulations: 13 models completed experiment G1 (offsetting 4 × CO2 via solar reduction); 12 models completed experiment G2 (offsetting CO2 that increased by 1% per year); 3 models completed experiment G3 (offsetting increasing radiative forcing under RCP4.5 with increasing stratospheric aerosol); and 7 models completed experiment G4 (injection of 5 Tg SO2 a- 1 into the stratosphere). The regional inequalities in temperature and precipitation compensation for experiments G1, G3 and G4 are significantly different from their corresponding noise backgrounds for most models, but for G2 they are not significantly different from noise. Differences in the regional inequalities and the actual effectiveness among the four SRM scenarios are not significant for many models. However, in more than half of the models, the effectiveness for temperature in the solar dimming geoengineering scenarios (G1 and G2) is significantly higher than that in the SO2 geoengineering scenarios (G3 and G4). The effectiveness of the four SRM experiments in compensating for temperature change is considerably higher than for precipitation. The methodology used highlights that a large across-model variation in the treatment of key geoengineering processes (such as stratospheric aerosols) and the quantification of damage caused by climate change creates significant uncertainties in any strategies to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness across different regions.

  20. A web tool for STORET/WQX water quality data retrieval and Best Management Practice scenario suggestion.

    PubMed

    Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A; Kim, Jonggun; Theller, Larry; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Merwade, Venkatesh; Lim, Kyoung Jae

    2015-03-01

    Total Maximum Daily Load is a water quality standard to regulate water quality of streams, rivers and lakes. A wide range of approaches are used currently to develop TMDLs for impaired streams and rivers. Flow and load duration curves (FDC and LDC) have been used in many states to evaluate the relationship between flow and pollutant loading along with other models and approaches. A web-based LDC Tool was developed to facilitate development of FDC and LDC as well as to support other hydrologic analyses. In this study, the FDC and LDC tool was enhanced to allow collection of water quality data via the web and to assist in establishing cost-effective Best Management Practice (BMP) implementations. The enhanced web-based tool provides use of water quality data not only from the US Geological Survey but also from the Water Quality Portal for the U.S. via web access. Moreover, the web-based tool identifies required pollutant reductions to meet standard loads and suggests a BMP scenario based on ability of BMPs to reduce pollutant loads, BMP establishment and maintenance costs. In the study, flow and water quality data were collected via web access to develop LDC and to identify the required reduction. The suggested BMP scenario from the web-based tool was evaluated using the EPA Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load model to attain the required pollutant reduction at least cost. PMID:25460420

  1. From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.

    PubMed

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-03-01

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

  2. From Eutrophic to Mesotrophic: Modelling Watershed Management Scenarios to Change the Trophic Status of a Reservoir

    PubMed Central

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-01-01

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

  3. Application of knowledge management and the intelligence continuum for medical emergencies and disaster scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bali, Rajeev K; Naguib, Raouf N G

    2006-01-01

    The world has recently witnessed several large scale natural disasters. These include the Asian tsunami which devastated many of the countries around the rim of the Indian Ocean in December 2004, extensive flooding in many parts of Europe in August 2005, hurricane katrina (September 2005), the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in many regions of Asia and Canada in 2003 and the Pakistan earthquake (towards the end of 2005). Such emergency and disaster situations (E&DS) serve to underscore the utter chaos that ensues in the aftermath of such events, the many casualties and lives lost not to mention the devastation and destruction that is left behind. One recurring theme that is apparent in all these situations is that, irrespective of the warnings of imminent threats, countries have not been prepared and ready to exhibit effective and efficient crisis management. This paper examines the application of the tools, techniques and processes of the knowledge economy to develop a prescriptive model that will support superior decision making in E&DS, thereby enabling effective and efficient crisis management. PMID:17946683

  4. Patient empowerment by the means of citizen-managed Electronic Health Records: web 2.0 health digital identity scenarios.

    PubMed

    Falcão-Reis, Filipa; Correia, Manuel E

    2010-01-01

    With the advent of more sophisticated and comprehensive healthcare information systems, system builders are becoming more interested in patient interaction and what he can do to help to improve his own health care. Information systems play nowadays a crucial and fundamental role in hospital work-flows, thus providing great opportunities to introduce and improve upon "patient empowerment" processes for the personalization and management of Electronic Health Records (EHRs). In this paper, we present a patient's privacy generic control mechanisms scenarios based on the Extended OpenID (eOID), a user centric digital identity provider previously developed by our group, which leverages a secured OpenID 2.0 infrastructure with the recently released Portuguese Citizen Card (CC) for secure authentication in a distributed health information environment. eOID also takes advantage of Oauth assertion based mechanisms to implement patient controlled secure qualified role based access to his EHR, by third parties. PMID:20543356

  5. Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Munson, John B.

    1988-01-01

    A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

  6. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co-benefits contribute to a coherent ecosystem-based adaptation strategy promoting landscape resilience at the landscape scale.

  7. Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single Family Homes (Revised)

    SciTech Connect

    Cummings, J.; Withers, C.; Martin, E.; Moyer, N.

    2012-10-01

    This document focuses on managing the driving forces which move air and moisture across the building envelope. While other previously published Measure Guidelines focus on elimination of air pathways, the ultimate goal of this Measure Guideline is to manage drivers which cause air flow and water vapor transport across the building envelope (and also within the home), control air infiltration, keep relative humidity (RH) within acceptable limits, avoid combustion safety problems, improve occupant comfort, and reduce house energy use.

  8. Wireworms’ Management: An Overview of the Existing Methods, with Particular Regards to Agriotes spp. (Coleoptera: Elateridae)

    PubMed Central

    Barsics, Fanny; Haubruge, Eric; Verheggen, François J.

    2013-01-01

    Wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) are important soil dwelling pests worldwide causing yield losses in many crops. The progressive restrictions in the matter of efficient synthetic chemicals for health and environmental care brought out the need for alternative management techniques. This paper summarizes the main potential tools that have been studied up to now and that could be applied together in integrated pest management systems and suggests guidelines for future research. PMID:26466799

  9. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes. Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  10. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  11. Managing urban water supplies in developing countries Climate change and water scarcity scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vairavamoorthy, Kala; Gorantiwar, Sunil D.; Pathirana, Assela

    Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional 'supply based management' to a 'demand management' paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and techniques that recognise the relationship between outflow at a water connection and the pressure experienced at that connection. The paper presents a case study where it is demonstrated that the new guidelines can provide an equitable and acceptable level of service throughout the design horizon of the project.

  12. Integrated mitigation and solar radiation management scenarios under combined climate guardrails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stankoweit, Marius; Schmidt, Hauke; Roshan, Elnaz; Pieper, Patrick; Held, Hermann

    2015-04-01

    In addition to the climate policy options 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' solar radiation management (SRM) has been put on the agenda. As SRM costs are comparably low compared to mitigation costs, including SRM risks in the analysis proves essential. In our contribution we focus on precipitation pattern changes as potential side-effects of SRM and perform an integrated mitigation-SRM-based analysis on the basis of economic welfare optimization, constrained by climate guardrails. We define a tolerable scale of precipitation changes by the anomalies that would have been tolerated under a temperature target. Given that metric and a temperature target, by utilizing the integrated assessment model MIND, we derive the cost reduction, induced by including the additional option of SRM. We show that the cost reduction is a strong function of the fraction of Giorgi regions, for which we require compliance with the newly defined SRM guardrail. Compliance with all Giorgi regions might eliminate most of the economic gain achievable through SRM. The effects of alternative parameterizations of the SRM-precipitation pattern change influence chain are discussed.

  13. Does Interdisciplinarity Exist behind the Facade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pharo, Emma; Bridle, Kerry

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the facade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed…

  14. Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey

    SciTech Connect

    Tinmaz, Esra . E-mail: idemir@itu.edu.tr

    2006-07-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.

  15. Research on solid waste management system: to improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey.

    PubMed

    Tinmaz, Esra; Demir, Ibrahim

    2006-01-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars. PMID:16112565

  16. Does Interdisciplinarity Exist behind the Facade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pharo, Emma; Bridle, Kerry

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the facade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed…

  17. Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

    2011-09-01

    The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

  18. Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

    2011-12-01

    There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

  19. Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maffei, A. R.; Chandler, C. L.; Work, T.; Allen, J.; Groman, R. C.; Fox, P. A.

    2009-12-01

    Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an existing, relational database containing oceanographic metadata, along with an existing interface coded in Cold Fusion middleware, to a Drupal6 Content Management System. The goal was to translate all the existing database tables, input forms, website reports, and other features present in the existing system to employ Drupal CMS features. The replacement features include Drupal content types, CCK node-reference fields, themes, RDB, SPARQL, workflow, and a number of other supporting modules. Strategic use of some Drupal6 CMS features enables three separate but complementary interfaces that provide access to oceanographic research metadata via the MySQL database: 1) a Drupal6-powered front-end; 2) a standard SQL port (used to provide a Mapserver interface to the metadata and data; and 3) a SPARQL port (feeding a new faceted search capability being developed). Future plans include the creation of science ontologies, by scientist/technologist teams, that will drive semantically-enabled faceted search capabilities planned for the site. Incorporation of semantic technologies included in the future Drupal 7 core release is also anticipated. Using a public domain CMS as opposed to proprietary middleware, and taking advantage of the many features of Drupal 6 that are designed to support semantically-enabled interfaces will help prepare the BCO-DMO database for interoperability with other ecosystem databases.

  20. Science Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cronin-Jones, Linda

    2000-01-01

    Focuses on using science-related issues in classrooms. Explains how to select these issues and create a scenario, and presents a sample scenario for a role-playing activity. Provides several format structures for role-plays. (YDS)

  1. Analytical perspectives on performance-based management: an outline of theoretical assumptions in the existing literature.

    PubMed

    Wadmann, Sarah; Johansen, Sarah; Lind, Ane; Okkels Birk, Hans; Hoeyer, Klaus

    2013-10-01

    Performance-based management (PBM) has become a dominant form of governance in health care and there is a need for careful assessment of its function and effects. This article contains a cross-disciplinary literature synthesis of current studies of PBM. Literature was retrieved by database searches and categorized according to analytical differences and similarities concerning (1) purpose and (2) governance mechanism of PBM. The literature could be grouped into three approaches to the study of PBM, which we termed: the ‘functionalist’, the ‘interpretive’ and the ‘post-modern’ perspective. In the functionalist perspective, PBM is perceived as a management tool aimed at improving health care services by means of market-based mechanisms. In the interpretive perspective, the adoption of PBM is understood as consequence of institutional and individual agents striving for public legitimacy. In the post-modern perspective, PBM is analysed as a form of governance, which has become so ingrained in Western culture that health care professionals internalize and understand their own behaviour and goals according to the values expressed in these governance systems. The recognition of differences in analytical perspectives allows appreciation of otherwise implicit assumptions and potential implications of PBM. Reflections on such differences are important to ensure vigilant appropriation of shifting management tools in health quality governance. PMID:23506797

  2. Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system.

    PubMed

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Johnson, Craig R; Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Chérubin, Laurent M; Arias-González, J Ernesto; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2011-06-01

    The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems. PMID:21774437

  3. Managing data quality in an existing medical data warehouse using business intelligence technologies.

    PubMed

    Eaton, Scott; Ostrander, Michael; Santangelo, Jennifer; Kamal, Jyoti

    2008-01-01

    The Ohio State University Medical Center (OSUMC) Information Warehouse (IW) is a comprehensive data warehousing facility that provides providing data integration, management, mining, training, and development services to a diversity of customers across the clinical, education, and research sectors of the OSUMC. Providing accurate and complete data is a must for these purposes. In order to monitor the data quality of targeted data sets, an online scorecard has been developed to allow visualization of the critical measures of data quality in the Information Warehouse. PMID:18998950

  4. CARBON MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR EXISTING U.S. GENERATION CAPACITY: A VINTAGE-BASED APPROACH

    SciTech Connect

    Dahowski, Robert T.; Dooley, James J.; Gale, J.; Kaya, Y.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the existing stock of fossil-fired power generation capacity in the United States within the context of climate change. At present, there are over 1,337 fossil-fired power generating units of at least 100 MW in capacity, that began operating between the early 1940's and today. Together these units provide some 453 GW of electric power, and simply retiring this stock early or repowering with advanced technology as a means of addressing their greenhouse gas emissions will not be a realistic option for them all. Considering a conservative 40-year operating life, there are over 667 fossil-fired power plants, representing a capacity of over 291 GW, that have a minimum of a decade's worth of productive life remaining. This paper draws upon specialized tools developed by Battelle to analyze the characteristics of this subset of U.S. power generation assets and explore the relationships between plant type, location, emissions, and vintage. It examines the economics of retrofit capture technologies and the proximity of these existing power plants to geologic reservoirs with promise for long-term storage of CO2. The costs for retrofitting these plants and disposing of their CO2 into nearby geologic reservoirs are presented.

  5. Software Health Management: A Short Review of Challenges and Existing Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pipatsrisawat, Knot; Darwiche, Adnan; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Schumann, Johann

    2009-01-01

    Modern spacecraft (as well as most other complex mechanisms like aircraft, automobiles, and chemical plants) rely more and more on software, to a point where software failures have caused severe accidents and loss of missions. Software failures during a manned mission can cause loss of life, so there are severe requirements to make the software as safe and reliable as possible. Typically, verification and validation (V&V) has the task of making sure that all software errors are found before the software is deployed and that it always conforms to the requirements. Experience, however, shows that this gold standard of error-free software cannot be reached in practice. Even if the software alone is free of glitches, its interoperation with the hardware (e.g., with sensors or actuators) can cause problems. Unexpected operational conditions or changes in the environment may ultimately cause a software system to fail. Is there a way to surmount this problem? In most modern aircraft and many automobiles, hardware such as central electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components are monitored by IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) systems. These systems can recognize, isolate, and identify faults and failures, both those that already occurred as well as imminent ones. With the help of diagnostics and prognostics, appropriate mitigation strategies can be selected (replacement or repair, switch to redundant systems, etc.). In this short paper, we discuss some challenges and promising techniques for software health management (SWHM). In particular, we identify unique challenges for preventing software failure in systems which involve both software and hardware components. We then present our classifications of techniques related to SWHM. These classifications are performed based on dimensions of interest to both developers and users of the techniques, and hopefully provide a map for dealing with software faults and failures.

  6. Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations—teachers and nurses—that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0.5%) in chronic “trait” anxiety. A similar pattern was found for coping skills: both treatments were able to significantly increase most coping skills, but only EG participants reported a significant increase (EG=14% vs CG=0.3%) in the Emotional Support skill. Conclusions Our findings provide initial evidence that the Interreality protocol yields better outcomes than the traditionally accepted gold standard for psychological stress treatment: CBT. Consequently, these findings constitute a sound foundation and rationale for the importance of continuing future research in technology-enhanced protocols for psychological stress management. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01683617; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01683617 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6QnziHv3h). PMID:25004803

  7. New formulations of existing antidepressants: advantages in the management of depression.

    PubMed

    Norman, Trevor R; Olver, James S

    2004-01-01

    For nearly 50 years, antidepressant drugs have been the first-line treatment for various forms of depression. Despite their widespread use, these medications have significant shortcomings, in particular problems of patient compliance due to adverse effects. The introduction of new formulations of existing antidepressant medications may provide patients with benefits in terms of convenience of use. As a consequence, improvements in compliance may lead to better antidepressant efficiency.An orally disintegrating formulation of mirtazapine (mirtazapine SolTab), a once-weekly formulation of fluoxetine, an enantiomer-specific formulation of citalopram (escitalopram), an extended-release formulation of venlafaxine (venlafaxine XR), a controlled-release formulation of paroxetine (paroxetine CR) and intravenous formulations of some of the newer antidepressants have all been evaluated in limited clinical trials. In this article, a review of the pharmacokinetics and clinical evaluations of these formulations is presented. While there do not appear to be major clinical advantages for the new formulations in terms of antidepressant efficacy, none of them is less efficacious than their older counterpart. Indeed, some of the new formulations are more acceptable to patients (fluoxetine once-weekly, paroxetine CR), others have pharmacokinetic advantages (venlafaxine XR, paroxetine CR), while others may have a faster onset of effect (mirtazapine SolTab, intravenous formulations). Further evaluation of some formulations is still required (mirtazapine SolTab, fluoxetine once-weekly), while others (venlafaxine XR, escitalopram) are finding widespread acceptance in clinical practice. PMID:15182220

  8. [V Consensus Meeting of the Spanish Society for Liver Transplant on high-risk recipients, immunosupression scenarios and management of hepatocarcinoma on the transplant waiting list].

    PubMed

    Pardo, Fernando; Pons, José Antonio; Briceño, Javier

    2015-12-01

    With the aim to promote the elaboration of consensus documents on state of the art topics in liver transplantation with multidisciplinary management, the Spanish Society for Liver Transplantation (SETH) organized the V Consensus Meeting with the participation of experts from all the Spanish liver transplant programs. In this edition, the following topics were revised, and we present the summary: 1. High-risk receptors; 2. Immunosuppression scenarios; and 3. Management of the patient with hepatocarcinoma in the waiting list. PMID:26404045

  9. Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

    2010-12-01

    Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

  10. Update on the management of restless legs syndrome: existing and emerging treatment options

    PubMed Central

    Facheris, Maurizio F; Hicks, Andrew A; Pramstaller, Peter P; Pichler, Irene

    2010-01-01

    Restless legs syndrome (RLS) is a sensorimotor disorder, characterized by a circadian variation of symptoms involving an urge to move the limbs (usually the legs) as well as paresthesias. There is a primary (familial) and a secondary (acquired) form, which affects a wide variety of individuals, such as pregnant women, patients with end-stage renal disease, iron deficiency, rheumatic disease, and persons taking medications. The symptoms reflect a circadian fluctuation of dopamine in the substantia nigra. RLS patients have lower dopamine and iron levels in the substantia nigra and respond to both dopaminergic therapy and iron administration. Iron, as a cofactor of dopamine production and a regulator of the expression of dopamine type 2-receptor, has an important role in the RLS etiology. In the management of the disease, the first step is to investigate possible secondary causes and their treatment. Dopaminergic agents are considered as the first-line therapy for moderate to severe RLS. If dopaminergic drugs are contraindicated or not efficacious, or if symptoms are resistant and unremitting, gabapentin or other antiepileptic agents, benzodiazepines, or opioids can be used for RLS therapy. Undiagnosed, wrongly diagnosed, and untreated RLS is associated with a significant impairment of the quality of life. PMID:23616710

  11. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  12. Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-09-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  13. On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale, accurate predictions cannot be made. What can be provided at best are reasonable scenarios, which describe a set of plausible trajectories based on the best information available about the present trends and specific assumptions about future evolution of the system. Scenarios thus give a better indication of the range of plausible futures than analyses based solely on aleatory uncertainty of present trends. Unfortunately, applying this approach to the coastal zone often emphasizes the large uncertainties and wide range of plausible futures (particularly if a realistic variety of assumptions is considered). We have developed an observation-based approach to scenarios for future local sea levels which allows us to consider a wide range of assumptions concerning the main contributions (vertical land motion, steric changes in the ocean volume, atmospheric circulation changes, and ocean-ice mass exchange) and thus to assess the full range of plausible futures a given location might be facing, including the associated uncertainties. We will demonstrate the approach for three example locations (Venice, New Orleans, Boston) and discuss the relative weight of the uncertainties in the forcing factors at these locations. Communicating the range of plausible futures and the uncertainties to decision makers in a proper way is a key problem that we as scientists too often tend to ignore.

  14. Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research. Consequently, further detailed research has begun specifically into the impacts from secondary effects in an effort to further increase resilience to future events.

  15. Hydrogeologic data for existing excavations and the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The Special Projects Section of Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., Inc. is responsible for characterizing the subsurface geology and hydrology of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Waste Management Division. Geologic description, in situ testing, and laboratory analyses of alluvium exposed in existing excavations are important subparts to the Area 5 Site Characterization Program designed to determine the suitability of the RWMS for disposal of low level waste mixed waste and transuranic waste. The primary purpose of the Existing Excavation Project is two-fold: first, to characterize important hydrologic properties of the near surface alluvium, thought to play an important role in the infiltration and redistribution of water and solutes through the upper unsaturated zone at the Area 5 RWMS; and second, to provide guidance for the design of future sampling and testing programs. The justification for this work comes from the state of Nevada review of the original DOE/NV Part B Permit application submitted in 1988 for disposal of mixed wastes at the RWMS. The state of Nevada determined that the permit was deficient in characterization data concerning the hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone. DOE/NV agreed with the state and proposed the study of alluvium exposed in existing excavations as one step toward satisfying these important site characterization data requirements. Other components of the site characterization process include the Science Trench Borehole and Pilot Well Projects.

  16. A comparative analysis of user preference-based and existing knowledge management systems attributes in the aerospace industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varghese, Nishad G.

    Knowledge management (KM) exists in various forms throughout organizations. Process documentation, training courses, and experience sharing are examples of KM activities performed daily. The goal of KM systems (KMS) is to provide a tool set which serves to standardize the creation, sharing, and acquisition of business critical information. Existing literature provides numerous examples of targeted evaluations of KMS, focusing on specific system attributes. This research serves to bridge the targeted evaluations with an industry-specific, holistic approach. The user preferences of aerospace employees in engineering and engineering-related fields were compared to profiles of existing aerospace KMS based on three attribute categories: technical features, system administration, and user experience. The results indicated there is a statistically significant difference between aerospace user preferences and existing profiles in the user experience attribute category, but no statistically significant difference in the technical features and system administration attribute categories. Additional analysis indicated in-house developed systems exhibit higher technical features and user experience ratings than commercial-off-the-self (COTS) systems.

  17. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    PubMed Central

    Davey, Sanjeev; Davey, Anuradha

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Currently, many cheaper “practice management software” (PMS) are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods: First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009) guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst) software using binary random effects (REs) model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results: Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100–226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85). The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion: Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system. PMID:25949969

  18. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

  19. An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, N. J.; Schulze, R. E.

    The need to improve smallholder rainfed maize production in a sustainable manner is important in South Africa, as maize is a staple food to the rural indigenous population. Smallholder maize production is often characterised by low yields, which are often significantly lower than the potential for the land. However, sustainable maize production is not only a question of yields, but also of protection of the environmental resource base, social welfare, and the livelihoods of farmers as well as adjacent rural and urban communities. Sustainability for the smallholder farmer raises questions of household food security, farmer and community well-being as well as agro-ecosystem integrity. Sustainability was assessed at the smallholder agro-ecosystem scale using a goal-orientated sustainability framework. The use of the physically based CERES-Maize crop model within the sustainability framework meant that agro-ecosystem responses to different management options (e.g. tillage systems and fertiliser application) and climate change scenarios could be quantified. The agro-ecosystem that has been simulated is at Potshini village, which is about 10 km from Bergville in the western-central region of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The agro-ecosystem was simulated for different management strategies for a range of plausible future climate scenarios for South Africa. The future climate scenarios of ‘2 × CO 2’ and ‘2 × CO 2 + 10%rain’ had the biggest positive effect on mean grain yield. These scenarios had increases of over 1000 kg/ha with inorganic fertiliser and ?200 kg/ha with manure. The largest negative effects on yield are with the ‘+2 °C’ scenario. The biggest increase in losses of organic nitrogen were with the ‘2 × CO 2 + 2 °C’ scenario where losses increased by up to 5%.

  20. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  1. Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.

    2013-07-01

    Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

  2. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    PubMed

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. PMID:26724447

  3. Modelling scenarios to assess the effects of different agricultural management and land use options to reduce diffuse nitrogen pollution into the river Elbe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Steidl, J.; Bauer, O.; Piorr, H.-P.

    The European Water Framework Directive requires the development of measure programs, management plans and strategies to avoid the water pollution with nutrients and other harmful matters. In a case study model calculations were used to evaluate different options of land use, agricultural and water management to reduce nitrogen immissions and enhance water and nutrient retardation in the Elbe river basin. The model scenarios consider measures which are recommended to reduce nitrogen pollution like organic farming, conversion of arable land into pasture, extensivation of grassland production and set aside. Additionally the re-wetting of formerly drained areas by water management is considered where applicable. Although there are distinct differences in nitrogen leaching between the different agricultural land use and management options, the regional effects of the scenarios on the emissions from the root zone are only fair (max. 13%) because of their limited extent of application. But the targeted application of the measures in zones of high river impact risk derived from groundwater residence times and decay calculations lead to a distinct reduction of the nitrogen input into the river flow system. The combination of water management and extensivation of agricultural production can achieve a reduction of 22% (4.400 t/a) of the nitrogen immissions originated from agriculture. Areas with a high reduction potential for nitrogen immission can be identified. This can be a relevant information for the development of measure programs within the water framework directive.

  4. The implications of using large ensembles of climate scenarios for the management of river ecology in an English chalk stream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, C. F.; Lopez, A.; New, M.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is likely to impact on freshwater ecology, the delivery of regulatory commitments to ecological status and the management of water resources. It is becoming increasingly important for European environment agencies to use and develop methods to aid planning and abstraction licensing procedures and policies in the face of climate change and with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive. Studies have been carried out in the past to investigate the implications of climate change for biodiversity. However, predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, an area which has not been dealt with in great depth in the past. This study has been undertaken to draw on the results of new methodologies to address the uncertainties inherent in modelling future climate and assess their usability for decision-making in water resources allocations specifically in considering interactions between flow and invertebrate communities The River Itchen was chosen as the case study catchment on the strength of having a long-term coupled ecological and flow dataset and having been an area of intensive study in the past. It is a chalk stream located in the south of England and a candidate Special Area of Conservation. It has also been designated a Special Site of Scientific Interest achieved due to the number of rare species, and the richness of the macro-invertebrate community in the river catchment. An ensemble of 246 transient simulations for future climate was obtained from ClimatePrediction.net which were then used to drive a rainfall-runoff model. In order to link the modelled river flow to ecology, the Lotic Invertebrate Flow Evaluation score has been used where the invertebrate community is linked to flow largely through sensitivity to water velocity and siltation, driven by flow variability at sites with fixed channel dimensions The large ensemble of climate scenarios and thereby flow and ecological indices allows the exploration of the risk of the river of not meeting environmental flow targets in the future. Three sets of environmental flow targets which were drawn up by the Environment Agency for England and Wales for the River Itchen were tested and show that it may be difficult to maintain a natural chalk stream invertebrate community in the River Itchen in the future. The ensemble also shows low flows regularly extending from August to December which could result in the loss of a high proportion of individuals recruited that year. This would in turn lead to diminished over-wintering populations, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the following years breeding and recruitment programme. Due to a paucity of quantitative data for the response of macroinvertebrates to multi-year droughts, to provide a richer story, a matrix has been proposed for analysing the effects on biodiversity of the river which combines both the thresholds derived previously and expert opinion on how the ecology of the River Itchen will react to climate change. The matrices also provide a more accessible way of communicating rather complex information to a wider community of decision-makers. Should large changes in flow arise in the future it is likely that some form of action will be taken to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of climate change. Maintaining the ecological status of the river throug river support, i.e. augmenting river flow by pumping from the groundwater aquifer, has also been investigated. However, by augmenting the flow, the high flows are also reduced which can be important for scouring the river bed and removing silt to the benefit of the invertebrate community. Therefore at some point further augmentation may need to be curtailed in order to maintain high flows.

  5. Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponche, J.-L.; Vinuesa, J.-F.

    2005-03-01

    Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area) and regional (upper Rhine valley) scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

  6. Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponche, J.-L.; Vinuesa, J.-F.

    2004-12-01

    Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area) and regional (upper Rhine valley) scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

  7. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: The case of an Italian urban area

    SciTech Connect

    Di Maria, Francesco Micale, Caterina

    2014-11-15

    Highlights: • Waste management scenarios starting from different SS intensity were analyzed by LCA. • Several experimental data were utilized for the inventory. • Collection activities influences marginally global impact. • Maximum global environmental gain was achieved by SRF for coke substitution. - Abstract: Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process.

  8. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

  9. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a persistent environmental change observed globally for more than a century, and its expected continuation poses significant challenges to the United States (US). We summarize a process associated with the United States National Climate Assessment for identifying four scenarios of global mean sea level rise (SLR). The main finding is that global mean sea level is expected to rise no less than 0.2 meters and no more than 2.0 meters by the end of the century. Recent publications suggest that a 4 C world would result in global mean SLR towards the upper end of that range. Aside from this process, there is currently no coordinated, interagency effort in the US to identify agreed upon global mean sea level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management. This is an important gap because identifying global mean SLR estimates is a critical step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. At present, coastal managers are left to identify global SLR estimates through their own interpretation of the scientific literature or the advice of experts on an ad-hoc basis. Yet, relative SLR at over one hundred tide gages (~80%) along the US coast reflect the global trend (1.7 - 3.2 mm/yr). No widely accepted method is currently available for producing probabilistic projections of SLR at actionable scales (i.e., regional to local). The desire to have a most probable or likely outcome can lead to paralysis or inaction for coastal decision-making. Given the range of uncertainty in future global SLR, scenario planning offers an opportunity to overcome decision-making paralysis and initiate actions now that may reduce future impacts and vulnerabilities. Scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe future potential conditions in a manner that supports decision-making under uncertainty. Using multiple scenarios, none more likely than the other, encourages experts and decision makers to rehearse multiple, plausible futures and to develop multiple response options. Coastal management actions can take anywhere from a few years for alterations to an existing levee to a decade or longer for large-scale, multi-use projects. Given the observed accelerated rate of global SLR in recent decades, it is now critical for the scientific community to help decision makers use scenario planning approaches for coastal adaptation in order to avoid future impacts of sea level rise and its effect on the frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding.

  10. Decision support in urban water management based on generic scenarios: the example of NoMix technology.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Tove A; Maurer, Max; Eggen, Rik I L; Pronk, Wouter; Lienert, Judit

    2010-12-01

    Urine source separation (NoMix technology) followed by processing the concentrated nutrient solution has the potential to become a cost-efficient alternative to conventional end-of-pipe nutrient elimination. A choice of processing technologies can only be made for specific scenarios, and there is currently no methodology for analyzing generic situations. In setting up a formalized decision-support methodology (based on STEEPLED analysis), we discuss how to create such generic scenarios, how to couple them with process engineering objectives, how to define the technology requirements, and finally how to produce a realistic subset of technology alternatives. The methodology is tested in five real scenarios. We also touch on the criteria for a final choice of technology taking into account large uncertainties about the performance of real technologies. We conclude that technology development is one of the most important requirements for implementing urine source separation in practice. There is an urgent need to develop cost-efficient processing technologies that satisfy the requirements of stakeholders. PMID:20728264

  11. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be delivered via the EHP web pages in a user-searchable archive. In addition, we aim to duplicate most of the real-time earthquake event web page functionality for scenario drills and exercises, including all standard post-earthquake information tools. Hence, for each event, USGS PAGER runs will be produced, providing population exposure at current population levels, and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will produce HAZUS impact assessments. Anticipated users include FEMA, the loss modeling and insurance communities, emergency responders and mitigation planners (city, county, state, industry, utilities, corporate), the general public and the media. The Earthquake Scenario Project will also take on several pending scientific challenges related to scenario generation, including ways to include fault directivity, numerical ground motions, and ways to produce ground motion uncertainties (in addition to median peak ground motions). A parallel though less comprehensive effort is underway to produce scenarios for targeted regions and events around the globe.

  12. Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Guiying; Xu, Minggang; He, Xinhua; Zhang, Wenju; Huang, Shaomin; Yang, Xueyun; Liu, Hua; Peng, Chang; Shirato, Yasuhito; Iizumi, Toshichika; Wang, Jinzhou; Murphy, Daniel V.

    2014-03-01

    We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term field trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general circulation models were validated using these field trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year-1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be -4.3 to 18.2 t C ha-1 by 2100. The effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ significantly between climate scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2) was approximately 0.136 t C ha-1 yr-1 in northern China. These findings highlight the need to maintain, and where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming inorganic fertilizer intensive.

  13. Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

    2013-04-01

    In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

  14. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

  15. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  16. Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some months over different years. There are no chances of overtopping of the dam during the 2020s and the 2050s under A2 and B2 scenarios. _______________________________________________________________________________KEY WORDS: Climate Model, Climate Change, Hydrological Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Tarbela Reservoir, Inflow, Outflow, Evaporation, Indus River, Calibration, Bias Correction.

  17. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  18. Assessing future scenarios for health care waste management using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool: A case study in the Turkish West Black Sea Region.

    PubMed

    Ciplak, Nesli

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the best possible health care waste management option in the West Black Sea Region by taking into account economic, social, environmental, and technical aspects in the concept of multi-criteria decision analysis. In the scope of this research, three different health care waste management scenarios that consist of different technology alternatives were developed and compared using a decision-making computer software, called Right Choice, by identifying various criteria, measuring them, and ranking their relative importance from the point of key stakeholders. The results of the study show that the decentralized autoclave technology option coupled with the disposal through land-filling with energy recovery has potential to be an optimum option for health care waste management system, and an efficient health care waste segregation scheme should be given more attention by the authorities in the region. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out multidisciplinary approach and the equilibrium between social, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. The methodology used in this research was developed in order to enable the decision makers to gain an increased perception of a decision problem. In general, the results and remarks of this study can be used as a basis of future planning and anticipation of needs for investment in the area of health care waste management in the region and also in developing countries that are dealing with the similar waste management problems. PMID:26211633

  19. Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the Greater Everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.

    PubMed

    Koch, M S; Coronado, C; Miller, M W; Rudnick, D T; Stabenau, E; Halley, R B; Sklar, F H

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades. PMID:25312295

  20. Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, M. S.; Coronado, C.; Miller, M. W.; Rudnick, D. T.; Stabenau, E.; Halley, R. B.; Sklar, F. H.

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year-1 and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

  1. Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makino, Masayuki; Ohnishi, Atsushi

    A method of generating scenarios using differential scenaro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.

  2. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

  3. Artificial neural networks applied to flow prediction scenarios in Tomebamba River - Paute watershed, for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisneros, Felipe; Veintimilla, Jaime

    2013-04-01

    The main aim of this research is to create a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that allows predicting the flow in Tomebamba River both, at real time and in a certain day of year. As inputs we are using information of rainfall and flow of the stations along of the river. This information is organized in scenarios and each scenario is prepared to a specific area. The information is acquired from the hydrological stations placed in the watershed using an electronic system developed at real time and it supports any kind or brands of this type of sensors. The prediction works very good three days in advance This research includes two ANN models: Back propagation and a hybrid model between back propagation and OWO-HWO. These last two models have been tested in a preliminary research. To validate the results we are using some error indicators such as: MSE, RMSE, EF, CD and BIAS. The results of this research reached high levels of reliability and the level of error are minimal. These predictions are useful for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

  4. Family Physicians’ Management of Genetic Aspects of a Cardiac Disease: A Scenario-Based Study from Slovenia

    PubMed Central

    Klemenc-Ketiš, Z; Peterlin, B

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find out how Slovenian family physicians (FPs) would manage a hypothetical clinical case, to explore their views about possible ethical dilemmas associated with this clinical case and to determine possible associations with demographic and other characteristics of FPs. This was an observational cross-sectional postal study in the Slovenian FPs’ surgeries. The study population consisted of the whole population of Slovenian FPs (n = 950). The main outcome measures were the percentages of the answers of FPs on different questions about the clinical case on the management of patient and his relative with hereditary cardiomyopathy. There were 271 FPs who answered the questionnaire (response rate was 27.1%). A sample included 66 (24.4%) men and the mean age of all respondents was 45.5 ± 10.6 years. When dealing with the clinical case, most FPs expressed willingness to take the patient’s family history. Only 34.2% FPs did not believe that ordering genetic tests was part of their job. Additionally, only 50.0% of them felt competent to interpret the genetic risk, 25.0% of them would give information about genetic testing and only 6.0% would interpret the results of the genetic testing. Family physicians in Slovenia were willing to include genetic tasks into routine management of their patients, but they do not feel competent enough to interpret the genetic risks and the results of genetic testing. However, an important part of FPs would not refer patients at risk to genetic counseling. The inclusion of genetic topics to family medicine specialization curriculum is needed. PMID:25741210

  5. Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei

    2013-11-30

    The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790

  6. Why are most EU pigs tail docked? Economic and ethical analysis of four pig housing and management scenarios in the light of EU legislation and animal welfare outcomes.

    PubMed

    D'Eath, R B; Niemi, J K; Vosough Ahmadi, B; Rutherford, K M D; Ison, S H; Turner, S P; Anker, H T; Jensen, T; Busch, M E; Jensen, K K; Lawrence, A B; Sandøe, P

    2016-04-01

    To limit tail biting incidence, most pig producers in Europe tail dock their piglets. This is despite EU Council Directive 2008/120/EC banning routine tail docking and allowing it only as a last resort. The paper aims to understand what it takes to fulfil the intentions of the Directive by examining economic results of four management and housing scenarios, and by discussing their consequences for animal welfare in the light of legal and ethical considerations. The four scenarios compared are: 'Standard Docked', a conventional housing scenario with tail docking meeting the recommendations for Danish production (0.7 m2/pig); 'Standard Undocked', which is the same as 'Standard Docked' but with no tail docking, 'Efficient Undocked' and 'Enhanced Undocked', which have increased solid floor area (0.9 and 1.0 m2/pig, respectively) provision of loose manipulable materials (100 and 200 g/straw per pig per day) and no tail docking. A decision tree model based on data from Danish and Finnish pig production suggests that Standard Docked provides the highest economic gross margin with the least tail biting. Given our assumptions, Enhanced Undocked is the least economic, although Efficient Undocked is better economically and both result in a lower incidence of tail biting than Standard Undocked but higher than Standard Docked. For a pig, being bitten is worse for welfare (repeated pain, risk of infections) than being docked, but to compare welfare consequences at a farm level means considering the number of affected pigs. Because of the high levels of biting in Standard Undocked, it has on average inferior welfare to Standard Docked, whereas the comparison of Standard Docked and Enhanced (or Efficient) Undocked is more difficult. In Enhanced (or Efficient) Undocked, more pigs than in Standard Docked suffer from being tail bitten, whereas all the pigs avoid the acute pain of docking endured by the pigs in Standard Docked. We illustrate and discuss this ethical balance using numbers derived from the above-mentioned data. We discuss our results in the light of the EU Directive and its adoption and enforcement by Member States. Widespread use of tail docking seems to be accepted, mainly because the alternative steps that producers are required to take before resorting to it are not specified in detail. By tail docking, producers are acting in their own best interests. We suggest that for the practice of tail docking to be terminated in a way that benefits animal welfare, changes in the way pigs are housed and managed may first be required. PMID:26522665

  7. Flood Propagation in the Middle-Lower Reach of the River Po for Different Scenarios of Floodplain Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellarin, A.; di Baldassarre, G.; Brath, A.

    2009-04-01

    The River Po is the longest Italian river, and the largest river in terms of streamflow. The middle-lower Po flows East some 350km in the Pianura Padana, a very important agricultural region and industrial heart of northern Italy. For this portion of the river, the riverbed consists of a stable main channel 200-500m wide and two lateral banks (the overall width varies from 200m to 5km) confined by two continuous artificial levees. The lateral banks are densely cultivated, and cultivations are protected against frequent flooding by a system of minor artificial levees. This sub-system of levees impacts significantly the hydraulic behaviour of the middle-lower Po during major flood events. This study utilizes a quasi-2D hydraulic numerical model. The model has been developed on the basis of laser-scanning DTM (resolution: 2m, topographic survey: 2005) and calibrated using the information available for the significant flood event of October 2000. The study aims at investigating the effects of the adoption of different floodplain management strategies (e.g., raising, lowering or removal of the sub-system of levees) on flood hazard along the river reach.

  8. Impacts, Effectiveness and Regional Inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 Solar Radiation Management Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the regional effectiveness of solar radiation management (SRM) to compensate for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze results from multiple earth system models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project(GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Under the solar dimming geoengineering experiments G1(4xCO2) and G2(increasing CO2 by 1% per year), global average temperature is successfully restored to pre-industrial level over 50 years simulations. However, these two SRM experiments also produce a robust global precipitation decrease. The stratospheric aerosol GeoMIP geoengineering experiment, G4 has significantly greater regional inequality and lower effectiveness for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2. G4 also has significantly larger regional inequality for compensating precipitation change than G1and G2. However, there is no significant difference between precipitation change compensation effectiveness of G4 and G2, though there is much larger across model variability in G4 results. G3 has significant greater regional inequality for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2, and has significant lower effectiveness than G1. The effectiveness of four SRMs to compensate for temperature change is much higher than for precipitation. The large cross-model variation in adjustment percentage of compensated SAT and precipitation change by SRM to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness shed a light on the uncertainty accumulation effect in optimizing compensation effectiveness of SRM.

  9. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C.; Freeman, W.

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

  10. An evaluation of the impact of forest biomass harvest for biofuels on carbon storage in the US west coast states under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. M.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    Mitigation strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide have lead to investigation of alternative sources of fuels. National and state forest policies have been implemented to both reduce risk of wildfire and promote use of forest biomass as a secondary biofuels energy source. However, the cost and biomass availability have been estimated without quantifying the impact on current and future terrestrial carbon balances. This study uses a combination of Federal Inventory Analysis data (FIA) and supplementary plot data for Washington, Oregon and California to quantify the current forest carbon stocks, net ecosystem production (NEP), and net biome production (NBP = NEP - removals) for the period from 2001-2006. Varying management treatments were applied to determine the net cost, carbon debt, and biofuels energy potential. The treatments were designed to meet multiple objectives emphasizing carbon storage, economic gain, or energy production. The hazardous fuels reduction treatment minimizes carbon loss by only harvesting biomass in forested areas classified by moderate to high risk fire condition classes (FRCC class). This scenario assumes no additional harvest in ecoregions characterized by long fire return intervals (>100 years) such as the Coast Range and the West Cascades and limits removals to an 18 in diameter at breast height (DBH). The energy production treatment maximizes biomass removal by harvesting areas regardless of FRCC class and allows removals up to a 24 inch DBH. Statewide estimates of carbon for 2001-2006 prior to harvest scenarios for California, Oregon, and Washington respectively are as follows: 1) Total land-based carbon stocks (excluding soils) averages 1680, 1663, and 1278 Tg C; 2) NEP is positive in most ecoregions averaging 213, 180, and 191 g C m-2 yr-1; 3) Actual harvest removals averaged 2.7, 6.5, and 5.1 Tg C yr-1 for the same period. In Oregon, the amount of biomass available for biofuels varies from 128 g C m-2 in the hazardous fuels reduction treatment versus 185 g C m-2 in the energy production treatment. Removal of this biomass over the next 20 years is estimated to result in an additional 4 Tg C yr-1 (a 60% increase) in harvest removals for the hazardous fuels reduction treatment and an additional 14 Tg C yr-1 (216% increase) for the energy production treatment. Even in a minimal removals scenario and assuming no other disturbance losses (i.e. insects and fire), Oregon forest NBP will be significantly reduced with the potential to become a carbon source.

  11. Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2013-12-01

    This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

  12. A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

    2014-05-01

    Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

  13. Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland

    PubMed Central

    Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

  14. Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

    Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

  15. Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, A. E.; Fabos, J. G.; Carlozzi, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

  16. Preparing for Catastrophic Disasters: Application of Earth Science and Engineering Data, and Loss Scenarios for Emergency Management and Disaster Recovery Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisner, R.

    2006-12-01

    Catastrophic disasters, either man or nature caused, pose unique challenges to federal, state and local governments. The complex interactions of lifeline disruption, structural damage, and population displacement are difficult to comprehend or predict. As the preparation for and response to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illustrated, forecasting the occurrence of the event does not adequately define the complexity of the consequences. Preparing for the occurrence of a rapid onset disaster that occurs without warning creates additional challenges to the emergency management community. If the event is catastrophic, it will quickly overwhelm local, regional and state resources. The ability to comprehend the magnitude and complexity of such a disruption will also be overwhelmed. The State of California, in order to gain insights into the complexity and demands of a catastrophic earthquake event (historic events include Central California [1906, 1868], Southern California [1857], and possible future events), has partnered with the United States Geological Survey, Charles Kircher and Associates, PBS&J and FEMA to exercise and test the State's response to a catastrophic recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. As Kircher notes in his paper, USGS ground motions, enhanced structure inventories, and FEMA' loss estimation tool, HAZUS, are used to define the impact on the San Francisco Bay Region infrastructure, resources and economy. In November of 2006, this scenario will serve as the structure of a 10-county response exercise that will be played out over 36 continuous hours, replicating lifeline, communications and transportation disruption. The exercise, funded by the California Office of Homeland Security, is the first statewide catastrophic disaster response to be carried out in the State and should serve as both a model for integration of natural hazard information into homeland security planning and for developing training that addresses the complex vulnerability of our urban regions. This paper will describe the process of integrating Kircher's work into capability/capacity building and the testing of catastrophic disaster response in California; as well as the lessons, limitations and assessments of the exercise process.

  17. The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.

  18. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  19. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum visibility across the project. One key aspect is that the tool was built for a scenario process that accounts for stakeholder input, review, comment, and concurrence. By creating well-designed opportunities for stakeholder input and concurrence and by making the scenario content easily accessible to all project personnel, we maximize the opportunities for stakeholders to both understand and agree on the concepts for how their mission is to be carried out.

  20. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  1. Comparison of a User-Centered Design, Self-Management App to Existing mHealth Apps for Persons Living With HIV

    PubMed Central

    Mosley, Jocelyn Patterson; Iribarren, Sarah J; Bakken, Suzanne; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex; Brown III, William

    2015-01-01

    Background There is preliminary evidence that mobile health (mHealth) apps are feasible, attractive, and an effective platform for the creation of self-management tools for persons living with HIV (PLWH). As a foundation for the current study, we conducted formative research using focus groups, participatory design sessions, and usability evaluation methods to inform the development of a health management app for PLWH. The formative research resulted in identification of the following functional requirements of a mHealth app for self-management: (1) communication between providers and peers, (2) medication reminders, (3) medication log, (4) lab reports, (5) pharmacy information, (6) nutrition and fitness, (7) resources (eg, social services, substance use, video testimonials), (8) settings, and (9) search function. Objective The purpose of this study was to conduct an ecological review of the existing apps for PLWH and to compare the functionality of existing apps with the app specifications identified in our formative work. Methods We searched two mobile app stores (Google Play and iTunes) and found a total of 5606 apps. We reviewed the apps, narrowed our search terms, and found a total of 112 apps. Of these, we excluded 97 (86.6%) apps that were either not in English (10/112, 8.9%), not HIV focused (32/112, 28.9%), or focused only on HIV prevention (2/112, 7.8%); targeted health care providers (26/112, 23.2%); provided information only on conference schedules and events (7/112, 6.3%), fundraisers (7/112, 6.3%), specific clinics (7/112, 6.3%), international or narrow local resources (3/112, 2.7%); or were identified in the first search but were no longer on the market at the next review (4/112, 3.6%). The 15 apps meeting inclusion criteria were then evaluated for inclusion of the nine functionalities identified in our earlier work. Results Of the 15 apps that we included in our final review, none had all of the functionalities that were identified in our formative work. The apps that we identified included the following functionalities: communication with providers and/or peers (4/15, 27%), medication reminders (6/15, 40%), medication logs (7/15, 47%), lab reports (5/15, 33%), pharmacy information (4/15, 27%), resources (7/15, 47%), settings (11/15, 73%), and search function (6/15, 40%). No apps included nutrition or fitness information. Conclusions Currently, there are only a small number of apps that have been designed for PLWH to manage their health. Of the apps that are currently available, none have all of the desired functionalities identified by PLWH and experts in our formative research. Findings from this work elucidate the need to develop and evaluate mobile apps that meet PLWH’s desired functional specifications. PMID:26385783

  2. A Survey to Determine if Significant Differences Exist in the Scoring of Select Management Areas for Fast Food and Full Service Restaurant Managers by Two-Year Foodservice Management Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloom, Thomas A.

    A survey was conducted of students in 77 of the 144 two-year foodservice management programs in the United States to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward fast food restaurant management as compared to full service restaurant management. A total of 1,403 students from 44 programs responded. Results indicated that the food service…

  3. Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

    PubMed Central

    Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C.; Hull, Angela D.; Sanderson, William G.

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”. PMID:23894298

  4. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.

    PubMed

    Gormley, Kate S G; Porter, Joanne S; Bell, Michael C; Hull, Angela D; Sanderson, William G

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool". PMID:23894298

  5. Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites

    SciTech Connect

    Boice, D.C.

    1986-04-01

    Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  6. Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

    2000-01-01

    Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

  7. Striving for Balance: The Co-Existence of Multi-, Inter- and Transdisciplinary Curricula in Information Management Education To Address Information Imbalances on Tertiary Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fairer-Wessels, Felicite A.

    Within the South African tertiary education context, information management is taught from a variety of perspectives, including computer science, business management, informatics, and library and information science. Each discipline has a particular multidisciplinary focus dealing with its fundamentals. To investigate information management…

  8. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  9. Tree-Ring Based Climate Scenarios to Inform Decision Making in Water Resource Management: A Case Study From the Inland Empire, CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groves, D.; Tingstad, A.

    2009-12-01

    Water agencies in California are concerned about meeting future demand under climate conditions that are potentially drier than today. Tree-rings can be used to reconstruct past climate which features droughts that were longer and more severe than any dry period during the 20th century for which instrumental data used by water managers are available. This research developed a new technique for modifying tree-ring based precipitation and temperature sequences that can be widely used in water management applications. A pilot study using this new method was done for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) in Southern California. This work employed Robust Decisionmaking to identify near-term management actions that may help mitigate future water shortages over a wide range of uncertainties related to climate, planning, and costs. The results of this work suggest that the current IEUA management plan is vulnerable to extended, high-magnitude droughts in the paleoclimate record as well as situations where management goals are not met. Increasing water banking, recycling, groundwater replenishment, and efficiency in the near-term could reduce the risk of unmet demand and shortage costs in the future.

  10. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  11. Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cherry, Gregory S.

    2006-01-01

    Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

  12. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  13. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  14. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m χ ≲ 8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly- mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  15. Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone.

    PubMed

    Gude, Patricia H; Hansen, Andrew J; Jones, Danielle A

    2007-06-01

    Land use is rapidly expanding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, primarily from growth in the number of rural homes. There is a need to project possible future land use and assess impacts on nature reserves as a guide to future management. We assessed the potential biodiversity impacts of alternative future land use scenarios in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. An existing regression-based simulation model was used to project three alternative scenarios of future rural home development. The spatial patterns of forecasted development were then compared to several biodiversity response variables that included cover types, species habitats, and biodiversity indices. We identified the four biodiversity responses most at risk of exurban development, designed growth management policies to protect these areas, and tested their effectiveness in two alternative future scenarios. We found that the measured biodiversity responses, including riparian habitat, elk winter range, migration corridors, and eight other land cover, habitat, and biodiversity indices, are likely to undergo substantial conversion (between 5% and 40%) to exurban development by 2020. Future habitat conversion to exurban development outside the region's nature reserves is likely to impact wildlife populations within the reserves. Existing growth management policies will provide minimal protection to biodiversity in this region. We identified specific growth management policies, including incentives to cluster future growth near towns, that can protect "at risk" habitat types without limiting overall growth in housing. PMID:17555214

  16. Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.

    PubMed

    Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

    2013-11-01

    Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

  17. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  18. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  19. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through to eventual disposal. By varying the specifications of the deployment scenario, the simulated annealing algorithm will seek to either minimize the value of a single objective function, or enumerate the trade-off surface between multiple competing objective functions. The available objective functions represent key stakeholder values, minimizing such important factors as high-level waste disposal burden, required uranium ore supply, relative proliferation potential, and economic cost and uncertainty. The optimization program itself is designed to be modular, allowing for continued expansion and exploration as research needs and curiosity indicate. The utility and functionality of this optimization program are demonstrated through its application to one potential fuel cycle scenario of interest. In this scenario, an existing legacy LWR fleet is assumed at the year 2000. The electric power demand grows exponentially at a rate of 1.8% per year through the year 2100. Initially, new demand is met by the construction of 1-GW(e) LWRs. However, beginning in the year 2040, 600-MW(e) sodium-cooled, fast-spectrum reactors operating in a transuranic burning regime with full recycling of spent fuel become available to meet demand. By varying the fraction of new capacity allocated to each reactor type, the optimization program is able to explicitly show the relationships that exist between uranium utilization, long-term heat for geologic disposal, and cost-of-electricity objective functions. The trends associated with these trade-off surfaces tend to confirm many common expectations about the use of nuclear power, namely that while overall it is quite insensitive to variations in the cost of uranium ore, it is quite sensitive to changes in the capital costs of facilities. The optimization algorithm has shown itself to be robust and extensible, with possible extensions to many further fuel cycle optimization problems of interest.

  20. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes but also evapotranspiration process. However changes in total precipitation are highly uncertain. The six tested rainfall-runoff models project reduced flows, especially in the spring and summer seasons. Depending on the socio-economic scenarios and the area, the downstream total water needs could decrease or remain stable. Considering the present day constraints, these changes would lead to a decrease in energy production (mainly due to reduced annual inflows) and to less flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand. Results of the R²D² 2050 project suggest also that the downscaling methods still fail to reproduce some crucial aspects of the climate at regional scale. Unexpected biases are propagated along the chain of models. The key issue to simulate accurately reservoir operations under present and future climate conditions is the filling curves that depict the balance between water supply and demand. Probabilistic filling curves were calibrated here to meet the constraint on water level in summer objective nine years over ten. A large proportion of regional climates generated over the baseline period lead to unrealistic curves, pointing out higher levels of requirement in models output to assess global change impacts on water management systems like on the Durance River basin.

  1. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  2. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Federal Property Management Regulations System (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80... quantitative analysis of the probability of occurrence of each scenario and combination of events will...

  3. Testing the potential for predictive modeling and mapping and extending its use as a tool for evaluating management scenarios and economic valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB).

    PubMed

    Lindegarth, Mats; Bergström, Ulf; Mattila, Johanna; Olenin, Sergej; Ollikainen, Markku; Downie, Anna-Leena; Sundblad, Göran; Bu?as, Martynas; Gullström, Martin; Snickars, Martin; von Numers, Mikael; Svensson, J Robin; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa

    2014-02-01

    We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea. PMID:24414807

  4. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  5. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems. Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days, weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.

  6. Mission MOX Fuel Physics Design--Preliminary Equilibrium MOX Assembly Design and Expected Operating Power for Existing Balakovo Fuel Management Scheme

    SciTech Connect

    Pavlovichev, A.M.

    2001-09-28

    Among various versions of excess weapons-grade plutonium handling the most preferred in Russia is its burning in power reactors. This is accounted for by the desire to utilize the power value of weapons-grade plutonium and the potentialities of the existing nuclear industry complex. In Russia the versions of burning weapons-grade plutonium in the VVER-, BN-, and HTGR-type power reactors are being developed. However the analysis of the current structure of nuclear power and the energy strategy reveals that in the coming years the VVER-1000-type (designs B-320 and B-392) as well as the VVER-640 reactor (design B-407) now under development appear to be the most promising for this purpose. The experience with the use of mixed uranium/plutonium fuel in the LWR, gained in the West and the preliminary studies carried out in Russia show that weapons-grade plutonium may be actually used as fuel for the Russian VVER reactors. At present Russia has 7 operating VVER-1000 of total installed capacity 7 GWe, 11 reactors of this type are in operation in Ukraine, and 2 in Bulgaria. Before 2003 it is planned to put into operation 2 VVER-1000 units more in Russian and at least 2 units in Ukraine.

  7. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  8. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  9. Exploring Existence Value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madariaga, Bruce; McConnell, Kenneth E.

    1987-05-01

    The notion that individuals value the preservation of water resources independent of their own use of these resources is discussed. Issues in defining this value, termed "existence value," are explored. Economic models are employed to assess the role of existence value in benefit-cost analysis. The motives underlying existence value are shown to matter to contingent valuation measurement of existence benefits. A stylized contingent valuation experiment is used to study nonusers' attitudes regarding projects to improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Survey results indicate that altruism is one of the motives underlying existence value and that goods other than environmental and natural resources may provide existence benefits.

  10. The degenerate gravitino scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Boubekeur, Lotfi; Vives, Oscar; Choi, Ki Young; Austri, Roberto Ruiz de E-mail: kiyoung.choi@uam.es E-mail: oscar.vives@uv.es

    2010-04-01

    In this work, we explore the ''degenerate gravitino'' scenario where the mass difference between the gravitino and the lightest MSSM particle is much smaller than the gravitino mass itself. In this case, the energy released in the decay of the next to lightest sypersymmetric particle (NLSP) is reduced. Consequently the cosmological and astrophysical constraints on the gravitino abundance, and hence on the reheating temperature, become softer than in the usual case. On the other hand, such small mass splittings generically imply a much longer lifetime for the NLSP. We find that, in the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), for neutralino LSP or NLSP, reheating temperatures compatible with thermal leptogenesis are reached for small splittings of order 10{sup −2} GeV. While for stau NLSP, temperatures of T{sub RH} ≅ 4 × 10{sup 9}GeV can be obtained even for splittings of order of tens of GeVs. This ''degenerate gravitino'' scenario offers a possible way out to the gravitino problem for thermal leptogenesis in supersymmetric theories.

  11. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).

  13. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  14. Low Grade Micropapillary Urothelial Carcinoma, Does It Exist? - Analysis of Management and Outcomes from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database

    PubMed Central

    Vourganti, Srinivas; Harbin, Andrew; Singer, Eric A.; Shuch, Brian; Metwalli, Adam R.; Agarwal, Piyush K.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To elucidate the oncologic behavior of Micropapillary Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma (MPBC), a rare aggressive variant histology. Methods: All MPBC patients in SEER 17 database were compared with those with traditional urothelial carcinoma (UC). Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine OS and CSS. A Cox proportional hazards model (CPH) was constructed to test the effect of covariates on outcomes. Results: From 2001-2008, 120 MPBC patients were identified, 0.1% of all bladder cancer. MPBC presented with more high grade (86.1% vs. 38.7%, p<0.0001) and more high stage disease (40.8% NMI vs. 90.4% NMI, p < 0.0001) than UC. Low grade (LG) NMI MPBC had worse OS and CSS compared to LG UC (p=0.0037, p<0.0001 respectively), and did no better than high grade (HG) NMI MPBC. No difference was detected between HG NMI MPBC and HG NMI UC pts. A CPH model controlling for stage, grade, treatment, age, race, and sex detected no significant survival difference in MPBC vs. UC (HR 1.04, p=0.7966). For NMI MPBC (n=49), only 4 patients underwent definitive therapy, of whom none died of disease. However, in those not receiving definitive therapy (n=45), 7 cancer specific deaths occurred (15.6%). Conclusion: Controlling for stage and grade, no survival difference could be detected between MPBC and UC. Low grade NMI MPBC behaved similarly to both high grade MPBC and high grade UC. We propose that all MPBC (regardless of grade) be managed as high grade disease, and that strong consideration for definitive therapy should be given in all cases. PMID:23678370

  15. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  16. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  17. Robotic tele-existence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro

    1989-01-01

    Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.

  18. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008), the product-process distinction serves to highlight the unique characteristics and challenges of scenarios for global environmental change, including their use in large-scale official assessments, basis in biophysical modelling, weak connections to decision-makers, and roles as sites of public controversy. Parson argues that these characteristics of global environmental change scenarios prohibit process-oriented approaches, which rely on pre-identifying intended users and engaging them in the scenario development process. Instead, he proposes ways in which scenario products can be enhanced to support use by multiple, non-participant user communities. Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) reach a different conclusion. They too identify the particular challenges of grappling with global environmental change. They examine approaches to past scenario efforts and categorize them into two groups that map loosely onto the product-process distinction: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric' approaches. They propose that progress in global environmental issues can best be made through a new, third type of approach ('reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based') that would combine elements of problem- and actor-focused approaches, creating scenario processes that can simultaneously support longer-term thinking as well as more immediate actions. Collectively, the papers in this issue range widely across issues associated with contemporary scenario processes and products. We can discern in them the outlines of an important set of suggestions for improving scenario development in the future, including, among others, the following: Focus scenario exercises on more specific questions so that results from multiple models can be more illuminating (O'Neill and Nakicenovic; Garb et al 2008). Enhance scenario transparency so as to enable extensions by users, rather than further expanding representation in global scenarios themselves (Parson 2008). Incorporate relatively simple measures (such as sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

  19. A minimal inflation scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Gómez, César

    2011-03-01

    We elaborate on a minimal inflation scenario based entirely on the general properties of supersymmetry breaking in supergravity models. We identify the inflaton as the scalar component of the Goldstino superfield. We write plausible candidates for the effective action describing this chiral superfield. In particular the theory depends (apart from parameters of O(1)) on a single free parameter: the scale of supersymmetry breaking. This can be fixed using the amplitude of CMB cosmological perturbations and we therefore obtain the scale of supersymmetry breaking to be 10{sup 12?14} GeV. The model also incorporates explicit R-symmetry breaking in order to satisfy the slow roll conditions. In our model the ??problem is solved without extra fine-tuning. We try to obtain as much information as possible in a model independent way using general symmetry properties of the theory's effective action, this leads to a new proposal on how to exit the inflationary phase and reheat the Universe.

  20. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  1. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  2. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  3. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  4. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  5. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  6. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

  7. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  8. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  9. Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

  10. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  11. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  12. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  13. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  14. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  15. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  16. Japanese National Standards: Learning Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Indiana Univ., Bloomington. Indiana Teachers of Japanese.

    This small manual presents 12 learning scenarios designed to teach the Japanese national learning standards to American learners of Japanese. It is written by teachers for teachers. These scenarios are designed to teach interpersonal, interpretive, and presentational communication; practices and products of culture; cultural comparisons; language…

  17. Scenarios for Enhancing Communicative Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salah, Ghaida

    A study of the effects of the complexity of scenarios used in the Strategic Interaction Method of second language instruction had four scenarios of varying complexity performed by four university classes of students of English as a second language at varying levels. Indicators of complexity included the degree of verbalness, contextual constraint,…

  18. Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS): development and application of computer modeling to selected National Planning Scenarios for high-consequence events.

    PubMed

    Scheulen, James J; Thanner, Meridith H; Hsu, Edbert B; Latimer, Christian K; Brown, Jeffrey; Kelen, Gabor D

    2009-02-01

    Few tools exist that are sufficiently robust to allow manipulation of key input variables to produce casualty estimates resulting from high-consequence events reflecting local or specific regions of concern. This article describes the design and utility of a computerized modeling simulation tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS), developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. As a scalable, flexible tool, EMCAPS is intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels ranging from local health systems to regional and state public health departments to Metropolitan Medical Response System jurisdictions. Designed around the subset of the National Planning Scenarios with health effects, advanced by the US Department of Homeland Security, the tool's platform is supported by the detailed descriptions and readily retrievable evidence-based assumptions of each scenario. The EMCAPS program allows the user to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that would best reflect the region or locale of interest. Inputs include population density, vulnerabilities, event size, and potency, as applicable. Using these inputs, EMCAPS generates the anticipated population-based health surge influence of the hazard scenario. Casualty estimates are stratified by injury severity/types where appropriate. Outputs are graph and table tabulations of surge estimates. The data can then be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems. EMCAPS may be downloaded without cost from http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/EMCAPS/EMCAPS.html as shareware. PMID:18986730

  19. Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

  20. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  1. Eastern Europe scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hafele, W.

    1996-12-31

    The Russian situation is key to Eastern Europe if present trends continue. Its strategy for the establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle was conceived decades ago when the former USSR still existed. It was based on the fuel recycle with attention given to the requirements of the military. The former Warsaw Pact Countries (WPC) were not meant to have independent fuel cycles, and their irradiated fuel elements were scheduled to go back to Russian territory. In 1976 a fuel cycle center was built at Mayak/Chelyabinsk, centered on the RT-1 plant with a nominal capacity of 400 tonnes/yr plant for the reprocessing of spent fuel from VVER-440 reactors, fast reactors (BN-350 and BN-600) icebreaker and submarine transport units, research reactors, and other power units. The plan provided for the reprocessing of spent fuel from the WPC all having VVER-440 reactors. All together, 3000 tonnes of spent fuel have been processed there. Nuclear waste went to vitrification. A new reprocessing facility is under construction in the neighborhood of Krasnoyarsk 26, the RT-2 plant. It is scheduled to operate after 2005, and its design capacity is 1500 tonne/yr. A storage for 6000 tonnes of spent fuel from VVER-1000 reactors is in operation since 1985. A second mixed-oxide plant for VVER-1000 reactors is under consideration. Now, there are no fuel cycle facilities in the newly independent countries. The fuel cycle problems in Eastern Europe and Russia are discussed.

  2. Existing capacity; The key to reducing emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Andrews, C.J. ); Connors, S.R. . Energy Lab.)

    1991-01-01

    Existing power plants, often grandfathered under previous environmental regulations, are the source of much pollution. Yet in seeking to reduce emissions from electricity production, most efforts have been focused on the choice of new generation technologies and electricity conservation options,assuming that changes to existing capacity were too problematic. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the electric power sector in New England suggests that there are surprisingly cost-competitive existing capacity options, which, as part of multi-option strategies, offer promise in reducing systemwide pollutant emissions. Technically achievable strategies combine the repowering or retirement of the dirtiest of the existing capacity, fuel switching in remaining utility boilers, end-use conservation, and the introduction of new, cleaner, and more efficient generating technologies. A scenario-based multi-attribute trade off analysis framework is used to identify these strategies.

  3. Does Unconscious Racism Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quillian, Lincoln

    2008-01-01

    This essay argues for the existence of a form of unconscious racism. Research on implicit prejudice provides good evidence that most persons have deeply held negative associations with minority groups that can lead to subtle discrimination without conscious awareness. The evidence for implicit attitudes is briefly reviewed. Criticisms of the…

  4. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  5. Scenarios: a planning tool for health care organizations.

    PubMed

    Zentner, R D; Gelb, B D

    1991-01-01

    An organization's strategic planners require an understanding of future developments in the environment in which their decisions will be made. However, there is increasing recognition that there is no single predetermined "future." Therefore, the use of alternative future scenarios can be helpful. Scenario construction is a technique for combining possible environmental developments in a systematic way to help managers assess the potential consequences of alternative decisions. This article discusses the scenario technique and shows, as an example, its application to one organization in the health care field. PMID:10110407

  6. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  7. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  8. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  9. Security message exchange interoperability scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tarman, Thomas

    1998-07-01

    This contribution describes three interoperability scenarios for the ATM Security Message Exchange (SME) protocol. These scenarios include network-wide signaling support for the Security Services Information Element, partial signaling support wherethe SSIE is only supported in private or workgroup ATM networks, and the case where the SSIE is nonsupported by any network elements (exceptthosethat implement security services). Explanatory text is proposed for inclusion infection 2.3 of the ATM Security Specification, Version 1.0.

  10. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  11. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  12. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  13. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T; Dick Cameron

    2015-01-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  14. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

  15. Global evaluation of nuclear infrastructure utilization scenarios (GENIUS)

    SciTech Connect

    unzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A.; Pasamehmetoglu, Kemal; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Oliver, Kyle M.; Turinsky, Paul J.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Hays, Ross; Stover, Tracy E.

    2007-07-01

    A new and unique fuel cycle systems code has been developed. Need for this analysis tool was established via methodical development of technical functions and requirements followed by an evaluation of existing fuel cycle codes. As demonstrated by analysis of GNEP-type scenarios, the GENIUS code discretely tracks nuclear material from beginning to end of the fuel cycle and among any number of independent regions. Users can define scenarios starting with any/all existing reactors and fuel cycle facilities or with an ideal futuristic arrangement. Development and preliminary application of GENIUS capabilities in uncertainty analysis/propagation and multi-parameter optimization have also been accomplished. (authors)

  16. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

  17. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    1999-09-01

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

  18. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  19. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT... HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  20. Autophagic cell death exists

    PubMed Central

    Clarke, Peter G.H.; Puyal, Julien

    2012-01-01

    The term autophagic cell death (ACD) initially referred to cell death with greatly enhanced autophagy, but is increasingly used to imply a death-mediating role of autophagy, as shown by a protective effect of autophagy inhibition. In addition, many authors require that autophagic cell death must not involve apoptosis or necrosis. Adopting these new and restrictive criteria, and emphasizing their own failure to protect human osteosarcoma cells by autophagy inhibition, the authors of a recent Editor’s Corner article in this journal argued for the extreme rarity or nonexistence of autophagic cell death. We here maintain that, even with the more stringent recent criteria, autophagic cell death exists in several situations, some of which were ignored by the Editor’s Corner authors. We reject their additional criterion that the autophagy in ACD must be the agent of ultimate cell dismantlement. And we argue that rapidly dividing mammalian cells such as cancer cells are not the most likely situation for finding pure ACD. PMID:22652592

  1. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  2. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13millionha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. PMID:26604078

  3. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  4. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  5. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  6. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  7. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  8. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  9. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  10. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian functions such as nutrient incorporation and sediment flux alterations.

  11. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sips, A. C. C.; Steady State Operationthe Transport Physics topical Groups of International Tokamak Physics Activity

    2005-05-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving the conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER, is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self-heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of ?-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence that ITER will achieve its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios, on the other hand, use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off-axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimization of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the results obtained in experiments today and to demonstrate the potential to significantly increase the economic attractiveness of the tokamak.

  12. A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

    PubMed Central

    Leggett, A. J.

    1999-01-01

    I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

  13. Simulation of Hydro-meteorological Variables by RCPs scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Choi, M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is most important issue since the changes influenced in many phenomenal forms for the entire globe. The various problems such as water shortage, localized heavy rain, and drought cuts across water resources which is vulnerable to the climate change. For the prediction and preparation of these phenomena, Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is developing and offering diverse climate change scenarios according to artificial causes such as greenhouse gas and change of aerosol. Most recently, IPCC introduced Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios which are the latest scenarios for preparing IPCC 5th report. The scenarios for the future give aid to assess uncertainty about contribution of human activity to climate change and the earth system (Moss et al., 2010). In this study, Common Land Model (CLM) which is typical land surface model used to predict the hydro-meteorological variables using RCPs scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The simulated hydro-meteorological variables will be analyzed to spatio-temporal variations for the East Asia. For the future study, the hydro-meteorological components will be simulated using CLM with more RCPs scenarios and compared with existing research results for understanding and forecasting aspect of transition.

  14. Using advanced technology repositories to accelerate simulation scenario development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trias, Eric; Mathias, Karl S.

    2002-07-01

    One of the more difficult problems facing an analyst wishing to use a simulation is the task of collecting data and transforming it into a correctly formatted scenario. Raw data is often available from a variety of sources: multi-spectral force deployment (MSFD) documents, the electronic warfare integrated reprogramming database (EWIRDB), free text documents such as intelligence reports, pre-existing simulation scenarios, and scenarios taken from other simulations. The task of transforming this data into a usable scenario involves searching for the relevant information, followed by a manual transformation of the original format to the correct simulation format. This problem can be greatly alleviated by using a combination of three technologies: automatic parser generation, repository architectures using extensible markup language (XML), and information retrieval (IR) techniques. Automatic parser generation tools like JavaCC can automatically generate source code capable of reading data sources such as old Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM) or Suppressor input files. For simulations that regularly add scenario keywords to support changing needs, this can greatly reduce redevelopment time and cost for supporting tools. The objects parsed by this source can then be encapsulated in XML and stored into a repository. Using information retrieval techniques, objects can then be queried from the repository and transformed into the appropriate format for use in a scenario.

  15. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  16. 44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150...

  17. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  18. 30 CFR 250.304 - Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Existing facilities. 250.304 Section 250.304 Mineral Resources BUREAU OF OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Pollution...

  19. Generating scenario trees: A parallel integrated simulation-optimization approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beraldi, Patrizia; de Simone, Francesco; Violi, Antonio

    2010-03-01

    A crucial issue for addressing decision-making problems under uncertainty is the approximate representation of multivariate stochastic processes in the form of scenario tree. This paper proposes a scenario generation approach based on the idea of integrating simulation and optimization techniques. In particular, simulation is used to generate outcomes associated with the nodes of the scenario tree which, in turn, provide the input parameters for an optimization model aimed at determining the scenarios' probabilities matching some prescribed targets. The approach relies on the moment-matching technique originally proposed in [K. Høyland, S.W. Wallace, Generating scenario trees for multistage decision problems, Manag. Sci. 47 (2001) 295-307] and further refined in [K. Høyland, M. Kaut, S.W. Wallace, A heuristic for moment-matching scenario generation, Comput. Optim. Appl. 24 (2003) 169-185]. By taking advantage of the iterative nature of our approach, a parallel implementation has been designed and extensively tested on financial data. Numerical results show the efficiency of the parallel algorithm and the improvement in accuracy and effectiveness.

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state tsunami program.

  1. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  2. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  3. Program Simulates Spacecraft Communication Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Land, Kenneth P.; Best, Robert E.; Steel, Douglas J.; Gadd, William C.

    1994-01-01

    Dynamic Environment Communications Alalysis Testbed (DECAT) computer program is modular simulation program. Computes effects of motion, antenna radiation patterns, noise, interference, and other phenomena. Flexibility enables users to analyze many communications scenarios quickly and easily, eliminating need for users to create specific computer programs. Users create simulations involving any number of vehicles, receivers, transmitters, and antennas via graphical user interface (GUI). DECAT GUI implemented by use of software tool called "Transportable Applications Environment Plus" (TAE Plus). Written in C language. Graphical user interface requires TAE Plus, Version 5.1 package available from COSMIC (GSC-13463).

  4. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-01-01

    The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, ‘Decision robustness’ and ‘Learning success’, we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

  5. Two scenarios for overcoming drug resistance by co-targeting.

    PubMed

    Taheri, Golnaz; Ayati, Marzieh; Wong, Limsoon; Eslahchi, Changiz

    2015-01-01

    Removal of proteins on an essential pathway of a pathogen is expected to prohibit the pathogen from performing a vital function. To disrupt these pathways, we consider a cut set S of simple graph G, where G representing the PPI network of the pathogen. After removing S, if the difference of sizes of two partitions is high, the probability of existence of a functioning pathway is increased. We need to partition the graph into balanced partitions and approximate it with spectral bipartitioning. We consider two scenarios: in the first, we do not have any information on drug targets; in second, we consider information on drug targets. Our databases are E. coli and C. jejuni. In the first scenario, 20% and 17% of proteins in cut of E. coli and C. jejuni are drug targets and in the second scenario 53% and 63% of proteins in cut are drug targets respectively. PMID:25667386

  6. A genetic approach to Spanish populations of the threatened Austropotamobius italicus located at three different scenarios.

    PubMed

    Matallanas, Beatriz; Callejas, Carmen; Ochando, M Dolores

    2012-01-01

    Spanish freshwater ecosystems are suffering great modification and some macroinvertebrates like Austropotamobius italicus, the white-clawed crayfish, are threatened. This species was once widely distributed in Spain, but its populations have shown a very strong decline over the last thirty years, due to different factors. Three Spanish populations of this crayfish--from different scenarios--were analysed with nuclear (microsatellites) and mitochondrial markers (COI and 16S rDNA). Data analyses reveal the existence of four haplotypes at mitochondrial level and polymorphism for four microsatellite loci. Despite this genetic variability, bottlenecks were detected in the two natural Spanish populations tested. In addition, the distribution of the mitochondrial haplotypes and SSR alleles show a similar geographic pattern and the genetic differentiation between these samples is mainly due to genetic drift. Given the current risk status of the species across its range, this diversity offers some hope for the species from a management point of view. PMID:22645491

  7. A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keith, David W.; MacMartin, Douglas G.

    2015-03-01

    The risks and benefits of solar geoengineering, or solar radiation management (SRM), depend on assumptions about its implementation. Claims that SRM will reduce precipitation, increase ocean acidification or deplete stratospheric ozone, or that it must be continued forever once started, are not inherent features of SRM; rather, they are features of common scenarios for its implementation. Most analyses assume, for example, that SRM would be used to stop the increase in global temperature or restore temperature to pre-industrial values. We argue that these are poor scenario choices on which to base policy-relevant judgements about SRM. As a basis for further analysis, we provide a scenario that is temporary in that its end point is zero SRM, is moderate in that it offsets only half of the growth in anthropogenic climate forcing and is responsive in that it recognizes that the amount of SRM will be adjusted in light of new information.

  8. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  9. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  10. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  11. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. PMID:25976302

  12. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

  13. Good health -- the future scenario.

    PubMed

    Prasad, S

    1995-10-15

    Obstacles to effective health management in India include the size of the population, the low infrastructure, and the apathy of government. Efforts toward improvement of health care are being made by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), which has organized a 4-day conference in October 1995 on Good Health. Industry is considered an appropriate vehicle for reaching people and educating them in a holistic approach about individual health and a healthy society. The conference program included medical professionals and industry experts. CII has undertaken a half day conference on the role of the corporate sector in population management, scheduled for October 5, 1995. The conference focus is on population management as a means of enhancing quality of life, standard of living, and national economic growth. Another seminar is scheduled for discussion of construction of corporate hospitals, advanced technology, and staffing with world class doctors. Executive health is a popular concern, and many companies offer health screenings followed by regular health check-ups. CII has scheduled for October 6, 1995, an executive health management seminar and a seminar on health insurance. Discussion will focus on the feasibility of health insurance in India. A special seminar will address the use of information technology within health care facilities. On October 7, 1995, the seminar will focus on government and private industries joint partnership in environmental management and waste reduction. Another October seminar will focus on AIDS and health care management, and another specifically on the vegetarian diet. PMID:12179191

  14. People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times.

    PubMed

    Newby-Clark, I R; Ross, M; Buehler, R; Koehler, D J; Griffin, D

    2000-09-01

    Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affect predictions or accuracy and were consistently rated less plausible than optimistic scenarios (Experiments 1-3). Experiment 4 independently manipulated scenario plausibility and optimism. Plausibility moderated the impact of optimistic, but not pessimistic, scenarios. Experiment 5 supported a motivational explanation of the tendency to disregard pessimistic scenarios regardless of their plausibility. People took pessimistic scenarios into account when predicting someone else's completion times. The authors conclude that pessimistic-scenario generation may not be an effective debiasing technique for personal predictions. PMID:11014050

  15. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.

  16. Scenario analysis of the future of clinical pharmacy.

    PubMed

    Leufkens, H; Hekster, Y; Hudson, S

    1997-08-01

    The role of clinical pharmacy in the health care system is changing rapidly. This change is almost universal among different countries and is related to developments in medical technology, health economics, informatics, socio-economic status, and professional relations. Transitions to new systems of clinical pharmacy are difficult to anticipate. Even with well defined targets, it remains uncertain what the future of clinical pharmacy will bring us. The construction of plausible scenarios may help us better in preparing for the 'new world' ahead. At the annual congresses of ESCP in Prague 1995 (24th) and Lisbon 1996 (25th), a number of scenario analysis workshops with respect to the future of clinical pharmacy were organized. This paper gives a report of the results of these scenario sessions and reflects on the implications for future policy making. After we identified the driving forces behind the future of clinical pharmacy, various sets of assumptions were made and from them scenarios were constructed which are plausible: they 'could' happen. This analysis provided a logical framework in which we ultimately depicted three alternating stories of the future of clinical pharmacy, named 'CLERK', 'CONTROLLER' and 'CARE MANAGER'. These scenarios are intended to help clinical pharmacists to break free of familiar mental maps and to stimulate creative thinking on the future. PMID:9297730

  17. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  18. Co-existence of agricultural production systems.

    PubMed

    Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut

    2006-05-01

    Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism. PMID:16545877

  19. Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

    2010-12-01

    A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal coliform in shellfish growing areas, 2) sediment supply to beaches, 3) State beach recreational visits, 4) eelgrass habitat suitability, 5) forage fish habitat suitability, and 6) nutrient loadings. In some cases thousands of shoreline units were evaluated with multiple predictive models, creating a need for streamlined and consistent database development and data processing. Model development over multiple disciplines demonstrated the challenge of merging data types from multiple sources that were inconsistent in spatial and temporal resolution, classification schemes, and topology. Misalignment of data in space and time created potential for error and misinterpretation of results. This effort revealed that the fusion of growth scenarios and biophysical models requires an up-front iterative adjustment of both scenarios and models so that growth model outputs provide the needed input data in the correct format. Successful design of data flow across models that includes feedbacks between human and ecological systems was found to enhance the use of the final data product for decision making.

  20. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  1. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC/POC leakage. Based on the modelling results a cost benefit analysis is performed (economics), guiding to the design of environmental policies needed for land use change to come true.

  2. Revisiting the semiclassical gravity scenario for gravitational collapse

    SciTech Connect

    Barcelo, Carlos; Liberati, Stefano; Sonego, Sebastiano; Visser, Matt

    2009-05-01

    The existence of extremely dark and compact astronomical bodies is by now a well established observational fact. On the other hand, classical General Relativity predicts the existence of black holes which fit very well with the observations, but do lead to important conceptual problems. In this contribution we ask ourselves the straightforward question: Are the dark and compact objects that we have observational evidence for black holes in the sense of General Relativity? By revising the semiclassical scenario of stellar collapse we find out that as the result of a collapse some alternative objects could be formed which might supplant black holes.

  3. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

  4. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-09-19

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

  5. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem. The analyses show that there will be much more water available in future under the considered emission scenarios but in some months there will be scarcity of water. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, the scarcity of water can be minimized considerably. Finally, a meta-analysis has been performed to present a combined picture of all scenarios considered in this study. One way to avoid water scarcity is to upgrade and install new reservoirs and water storage capacities to reserve the extra water during high river flow in Indus River, which will then be utilized during low river flow. __________________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Climate Change, Hydro-power, Indus River, Tarbela Reservoir, Upper Indus Basin, Meta-analysis, Hydrological model.

  6. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  7. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  8. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    PubMed

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  9. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  10. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  11. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  12. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  13. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qihong; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-05-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state w of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once w reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if w approaches a constant at t →-∞, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if w decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the emergent scenario that avoids the big bang singularity can be successfully implemented in the EC theory of gravity.

  14. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?

    SciTech Connect

    Kanemura, Shinya; Nabeshima, Takehiro; Matsumoto, Shigeki; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-09-01

    Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the standard model gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate the possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

  15. Framework for model independent analyses of multiple extra quark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barducci, Daniele; Belyaev, Alexander; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

    2014-12-01

    In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analyses so as to set bounds on new quark resonances. In particular, we report on the re-interpretation of the existing limits on benchmark scenarios with one and multiple pair-produced top partners having non-exclusive couplings to the third Standard Model generation of quarks.

  16. Future waste treatment and energy systems--examples of joint scenarios.

    PubMed

    Münster, M; Finnveden, G; Wenzel, H

    2013-11-01

    Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project. PMID:23932196

  17. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID:24361447

  18. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  19. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  20. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  1. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  2. Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

    PubMed Central

    Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

    1994-01-01

    Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

  3. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  4. DENTAL CARE PROFESSIONALS AND CHILD PROTECTION: CASE SCENARIOS AND DISCUSSIONS.

    PubMed

    Park, Christine

    2015-11-01

    Any concerns about paediatric patients in general dental practice can be stressful for all involved. Barriers to the reporting of concerns by dental teams are known to exist. Anything that can help ease those situations can only be beneficial. In this article we look at three scenarios that could arise which I am often asked about during teaching and training sessions on safeguarding and child protection for dental teams. They can be discussed at team meetings and training, so that if they are ever to happen for real, everyone will know exactly what to do. This article cannot be completely prescriptive as there will be local variations, but it gives general guidance on issues raised by the scenarios. If you already have a child protection policy in your practice, make sure you know what it says; and if you don't this article will point the way to further resources for developing one. PMID:26966774

  5. Pre-existing diabetes in pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Padmanabhan, Suja; Zen, Monica; Lee, Vincent; Cheung, Ngai W

    2016-03-01

    The incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes amongst women of reproductive age is increasing worldwide. Despite recent advances in treatment options for diabetes outside of pregnancy, women still have a significantly increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes including perinatal death and congenital malformation, compared to the non-diabetic population. An understanding of the physiological changes during pregnancy, management, early detection and prevention of complications and pre-pregnancy care, specific to women with pre-existing diabetes, is important in improving health outcomes in this growing group of women. This review particularly focuses on areas where there have been recent developments or controversy. PMID:26878562

  6. Integrated modelling of ITER reference scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parail, V.; Belo, P.; Boerner, P.; Bonnin, X.; Corrigan, G.; Coster, D.; Ferreira, J.; Foster, A.; Garzotti, L.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Houlberg, W.; Imbeaux, F.; Johner, J.; Kochl, F.; Kotov, V.; Lauro-Taroni, L.; Litaudon, X.; Lonnroth, J.; Pereverzev, G.; Peysson, Y.; Saibene, G.; Sartori, R.; Schneider, M.; Sips, G.; Strand, P.; Tardini, G.; Valovic, M.; Wiesen, S.; Wischmeier, M.; Zagorski, R.; JET EFDA contributors; EU ITM Task Force

    2009-07-01

    The ITER Scenario Modelling Working Group (ISM WG) is organized within the European Task Force on Integrated Tokamak Modelling (ITM-TF). The main responsibility of the WG is to advance a pan-European approach to integrated predictive modelling of ITER plasmas with the emphasis on urgent issues, identified during the ITER Design Review. Three major topics are discussed, which are considered as urgent and where the WG has the best possible expertize. These are modelling of current profile control, modelling of density control and impurity control in ITER (the last two topics involve modelling of both core and SOL plasma). Different methods of heating and current drive are tested as controllers for the current profile tailoring during the current ramp-up in ITER. These include Ohmic, NBI, ECRH and LHCD methods. Simulation results elucidate the available operational margins and rank different methods according to their ability to meet different requirements. A range of 'ITER-relevant' plasmas from existing tokamaks were modelled. Simulations confirmed that the theory-based transport model, GLF23, reproduces the density profile reasonably well and can be used to assess ITER profiles with both pellet injection and gas puffing. In addition, simulations of the SOL plasma were launched using both H-mode and L-mode models for perpendicular transport within the edge barrier and in the SOL. Finally, an integrated approach was also used for the predictive modelling of impurity accumulation in ITER. This includes helium ash, extrinsic impurities (such as argon) and impurities coming from the wall (including tungsten). The relative importance of anomalous and neo-classical pinch contributions towards impurity penetration through the edge transport barrier and further accumulation in the core was assessed.

  7. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. PMID:23708563

  8. Can Boltzmann Soliton Star Exist?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Rukeng; Chen, Xuelei; Pan, Rongshi

    1992-12-01

    The fermion soliton stars suggested by Lee and Pang are extended to finite temperature. The degeneracy temperature TD above which the fermion soliton star will become a Boltzmann soliton star is given. We prove that the Boltzmann soliton star cannot exist, because it is unstable.

  9. Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony; Vance, Tessa; Roberts, Jason; Ho, Michelle

    2015-04-01

    Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers can robustly deal with such uncertainty.

  10. The development of evidence-based clinical simulation scenarios: guidelines for nurse educators.

    PubMed

    Waxman, K T

    2010-01-01

    Clinical simulation has been recognized as a teaching method using learning exercises that closely mimic real-life situations. The development of evidence-based clinical simulation scenarios and guidelines for nurses is an important step in redesigning nursing education. These scenarios are created for students to learn in a safe environment. Simulated clinical experience requires immersing students in a representative patient-care scenario, a setting that mimics the actual environment with sufficient realism to allow learners to suspend disbelief. The purpose of this article is to discuss the Bay Area Simulation Collaborative's development of guidelines for effective evidence-based scenarios for use in hospitals and nursing schools. Six scholarly articles were reviewed and evaluated to determine whether evidence-based guidelines for scenario development exist and whether consensus in the literature regarding best practice is evident. PMID:19810672

  11. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.

  12. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  13. 40 CFR 165.97 - States with existing containment programs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false States with existing containment programs. 165.97 Section 165.97 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) PESTICIDE PROGRAMS PESTICIDE MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSAL Standards for Pesticide Containment Structures § 165.97 States with existing containment programs....

  14. Nipah virus infection: current scenario.

    PubMed

    Kulkarni, D D; Tosh, C; Venkatesh, G; Senthil Kumar, D

    2013-12-01

    The emergence of Nipah virus (NiV) infection into the pig population and subsequently into the human population is believed to be due to changes in ecological conditions. In Malaysia, A major NiV outbreak occurred in pigs and humans from September 1998 to April 1999 that resulted in infection of 265 and death of 105 persons. About 1.1 million pigs had to be destroyed to control the outbreak. The disease was recorded in the form of a major outbreak in India in 2001 and then a small incidence in 2007, both the outbreaks in West Bengal only in humans without any involvement of pigs. There were series of human Nipah incidences in Bangladesh from 2001 till 2013 almost every year with mortality exceeding 70 %. The disease transmission from pigs acting as an intermediate host during Malaysian and Singapore outbreaks has changed in NIV outbreaks in India and Bangladesh, transmitting the disease directly from bats to human followed by human to human. The drinking of raw date palm sap contaminated with fruit bat urine or saliva containing NiV is the only known cause of outbreak of the disease in Bangladesh outbreaks. The virus is now known to exist in various fruit bats of Pteropus as well as bats of other genera in a wider belt from Asia to Africa. PMID:24426305

  15. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  16. Risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Visser, M.

    1995-12-31

    In the autumn of 1993 an incident occurred with a diving support vessel, whereby a live pipeline from a NAM gas production platform, situated in the Dutch sector of the North Sea, was considerably displaced. Key element in the repair of the line was to identify potential hazards involved in various remedial scenarios and to manage the associated risks.

  17. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  18. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing trees, the best scenario to reduce carbon was also rotational coppicing, due to the highest potential of CO2 reduction by woodenergy utilization. The result suggests that rotational coppicing, which mimics historical management, can also serve contemporary ends. Rotational coppicing can be promoted from the policies related to carbon reduction, but at the same time, further studies for clarifying the optimum degree of human disturbance (e.g. frequency of tree cutting, groundcover removal) are necessary to avoid negative impacts to forest ecosystems.

  19. 43 CFR 3802.1-7 - Existing operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Existing operations. 3802.1-7 Section 3802.1-7 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) MINING CLAIMS UNDER THE GENERAL MINING...

  20. 41 CFR 51-10.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 51-10.150 Section 51-10.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions... result in a fundamental alteration in the nature of a program or activity or in undue financial...

  1. 5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... facilities. 723.150 Section 723.150 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL... ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT § 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing... would result in a fundamental alteration in the nature of a program or activity or in undue...

  2. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  3. Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnishi, Atsushi

    Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system’s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.

  4. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  5. Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent.

    PubMed

    Nishant; Kumari, Renu

    2014-07-01

    The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

  6. Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent

    PubMed Central

    Nishant; Kumari, Renu

    2014-01-01

    The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

  7. Refining Gold from Existing Data

    PubMed Central

    Wade, Ted D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose of review The purpose is to review the arguments for increasing use of existing data in health research. Recent Findings The reuse of data in observational, exploratory and outcome studies, as well as in confirming other findings, is being justified on epistemological grounds as the major path to new knowledge and to the generalizing of findings to “real world” populations. It is also justified on grounds of cost, power and efficiency, even though data reuse comes with real informatics, scientific culture, societal and regulatory issues. Summary Data reuse is becoming more compelling. When contemplating new research for any purpose other than RCTs for efficacy, it is prudent to consider whether partnership with existing data holders should be part of the optimal research plan. PMID:24625777

  8. The EXIST Mission Concept Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

    2008-01-01

    EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in scanning mode, interrupted for several orbits per day by GRB follow-ups, followed by a combined pointing-scanning mission phase for optical/IR spectroscopy and redshifts for the large AGN sample found in the survey as well as GRBs and LSST transients. A Team of university, NASA, and industry investigators will conduct the study to determine the full sensitivity and capabilities of this new configuration for EXIST. It will build on the extensive studies of the prior design for the mission and the HET and will incorporate the optical/IR telescope (hereafter IRT) now fully developed by our ITT partner for the NextView Commercial Remote Sensing mission (early 2008 launch) with a focal plane to be developed at GSFC based in part on JWST/NIRSPEC designs. No new technology is needed for either the IRT or HET instruments. The study will pay close attention to full mission cost and present a design for the Decadal Survey Workshop to ensure this even more capable EXIST mission is once again part of the next Decadal Survey.

  9. Contextualizing Learning Scenarios According to Different Learning Management Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drira, R.; Laroussi, M.; Le Pallec, X.; Warin, B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we first demonstrate that an instructional design process of Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) systems based on a Model Driven Approach (MDA) addresses the limits of Learning Technology Standards (LTS), such as SCORM and IMS-LD. Although these standards ensure the interoperability of TEL systems across different Learning Management…

  10. Antibiotic resistance to Propionobacterium acnes: worldwide scenario, diagnosis and management.

    PubMed

    Sardana, Kabir; Gupta, Tanvi; Garg, Vijay K; Ghunawat, Sneha

    2015-07-01

    Antibiotic resistance in cutaneous Propionobacterium is a global problem. As a general rule, resistance levels are high to macrolides, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and clindamycin, while tetracyclines and levofloxacin have low resistance potential. Newer preparations like doxycycline MR and doxycycline 20 mg are subantimicrobial and may not lead to resistance. Sampling techniques are crucial to determine resistance. Genomic evaluation using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing can be useful in diagnosing mutations and mapping phylotypes of Propionobacterium acnes. Resistance may lead to slow response and relapses. Apart from benzoyl peroxide, azelaic acid, topical dapsone, oral zinc and retinoids, novel molecules with little resistance potential include octadecenedioic acid, phytosphingosine, lauric acid, retapamulin, resveratrol, T-3912 and NB-003. The use of oral retinoids and non-antibiotics like zinc can prevent resistance and help reduce the dependence on antibiotics. PMID:26025191

  11. The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

  12. Superfluid Density in the d-Density-Wave Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qiang-Hua; Han, Jung Hoon; Lee, Dung-Hai

    2001-08-01

    Recently Chakravarty, Laughlin, Morr, and Nayak [Phys. Rev. B 62, 4880 (2000)] made an interesting proposal that the cuprate superconductors possess a hidden `` d-density-wave'' (DDW) order. We study the implication of this proposal for the superfluid density ?s. We find that it predicts a temperature gradient \\|d?s/dT\\|T = 0 that is strongly doping dependent near the critical doping at which the superconducting gap vanishes. This demonstrates that the DDW scenario is inconsistent with existing well-established experimental data.

  13. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

  14. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. PMID:26189995

  15. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  16. Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

  17. Natural water availability scenarios for the Guanting basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conradt, T.; Guanting Project Team

    2012-04-01

    Water resources are heavily managed in Northern China. The Guanting basin is the catchment area of the Guanting reservoir, which is located about 70 km northwest of Beijing. The basin covers roughly 43 500 km2 and has an elevation range of 438-2449 m a.m.s.l. Precipitation events concentrate in summer while the rest of the year is dry. Water scarcity and quality problems sparked the idea of a joint research project lead by the Potsdam Institute and the Hebei Institute for Water Resources. The core of our investigations is a model chain providing scenario data from climate to management and water quality projections for decision making. The adequate simulation of quasi-natural runoffs by the eco-hydrological model SWIM using climate scenarios is a key task for further analyses. Output data are used for water management and water quality modelling. SWIM, a derivate of SWAT, is spatially semi-distributed. The model domain is split into sub-basins according to the river network. These are further discretised into so-called hydrotopes defined by land use, soil profile, and wetland property. The hydrotopes make up the primary simulation units for vertical fluxes and processes. Their runoff contributions are accumulated to the sub-basins' discharges which are then routed and accumulated through the sub-basin structure simulating river runoff. Scenario projections driven by the stochastical climate model STAR show further decreases in water availability for the Guanting region. This result is presented besides current research directions like the simulation of agricultural yields with respect to irrigation.

  18. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  19. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.

    PubMed

    Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies. PMID:15246577

  20. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  1. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-01

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  2. Hollow current profile scenarios for advanced tokamak reactor operations

    SciTech Connect

    Gourdain, P.-A.; Leboeuf, J.-N.

    2009-11-15

    Advanced tokamak scenarios are a possible approach to boosting reactor performances. Such schemes usually trigger current holes, a particular magnetohydrodynamics equilibrium where no current or pressure gradients exist in the core of the plasma. While such equilibria have large bootstrap fractions, flat pressure profiles in the plasma core may not be optimal for a reactor. However, moderate modifications of the equilibrium current profile can lead to diamagnetism where most of the pressure gradient is now balanced by poloidal currents and the toroidal magnetic field. In this paper, we consider the properties of diamagnetic current holes, also called ''dual equilibria,'' and demonstrate that fusion throughput can be significantly increased in such scenarios. Their stability is investigated using the DCON code. Plasmas with a beta peak of 30% and an average beta of 6% are found stable to both fixed and free-boundary modes with toroidal mode numbers n=1-4, as well as Mercier and high-n ballooning modes. This is not surprising as these scenarios have a normal beta close to 3.

  3. Neutrino phenomenology of very low-energy seesaw scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gouvea, Andre de; Jenkins, James; Vasudevan, Nirmala

    2007-01-01

    The standard model augmented by the presence of gauge-singlet right-handed neutrinos proves to be an ideal scenario for accommodating nonzero neutrino masses. Among the new parameters of this 'new standard model' are right-handed neutrino Majorana masses M. Theoretical prejudice points to M much larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, but it has recently been emphasized that all M values are technically natural and should be explored. Indeed, M around 1-10 eV can accommodate an elegant oscillation solution to the liquid scintillator neutrino detector (LSND) anomaly, while other M values lead to several observable consequences. We consider the phenomenology of low-energy (M < or approx. 1 keV) seesaw scenarios. By exploring such a framework with three right-handed neutrinos, we can consistently fit all oscillation data--including those from LSND--while partially addressing several astrophysical puzzles, including anomalous pulsar kicks, heavy element nucleosynthesis in supernovae, and the existence of warm dark matter. In order to accomplish all of this, we find that a nonstandard cosmological scenario is required. Finally, low-energy seesaws - regardless of their relation to the LSND anomaly - can also be tested by future tritium beta-decay experiments, neutrinoless double-beta decay searches, and other observables. We estimate the sensitivity of such probes to M.

  4. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

  5. Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.

    PubMed

    Mazzorana, B; Comiti, F; Scherer, C; Fuchs, S

    2012-02-01

    The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process. PMID:21908095

  6. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  7. Coherent delocalization: views of entanglement in different scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    León-Montiel, R. de J.; Vallés, A.; Moya-Cessa, H. M.; Torres, J. P.

    2015-08-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compose the system of interest.

  8. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

  9. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis of flood risks in aging-dam management in China: a framework and case study.

    PubMed

    Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

    2011-05-01

    Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

  10. Straightening: existence, uniqueness and stability

    PubMed Central

    Destrade, M.; Ogden, R. W.; Sgura, I.; Vergori, L.

    2014-01-01

    One of the least studied universal deformations of incompressible nonlinear elasticity, namely the straightening of a sector of a circular cylinder into a rectangular block, is revisited here and, in particular, issues of existence and stability are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the system of forces required to sustain the large static deformation, including by the application of end couples. The influence of geometric parameters and constitutive models on the appearance of wrinkles on the compressed face of the block is also studied. Different numerical methods for solving the incremental stability problem are compared and it is found that the impedance matrix method, based on the resolution of a matrix Riccati differential equation, is the more precise. PMID:24711723

  11. Does a quarterlife crisis exist?

    PubMed

    Rossi, Nicole E; Mebert, Carolyn J

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the authors examined quarterlife crisis, defined in the popular press as an identity crisis that leaves recent college graduates depressed, anxious, and full of doubt. To determine if a unique crisis exists, 4 groups of young adults (recent high school [n = 23] and college [n = 117] graduates in the workforce, present undergraduate [n = 75], and graduate [n = 57] students) completed self-report measures assessing identity development, future time perspective, social support, coping, depression, anxiety, and job and life satisfaction. No support was found for a quarterlife crisis among these 4 groups. Working high school graduates displayed the highest anxiety, followed by present undergraduates. Depression was predicted by family support and identity commitment. Job satisfaction was associated with income and support from friends. Life satisfaction was associated with income, social support from friends and family, and identity commitment. PMID:21675544

  12. Straightening: existence, uniqueness and stability.

    PubMed

    Destrade, M; Ogden, R W; Sgura, I; Vergori, L

    2014-04-01

    One of the least studied universal deformations of incompressible nonlinear elasticity, namely the straightening of a sector of a circular cylinder into a rectangular block, is revisited here and, in particular, issues of existence and stability are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the system of forces required to sustain the large static deformation, including by the application of end couples. The influence of geometric parameters and constitutive models on the appearance of wrinkles on the compressed face of the block is also studied. Different numerical methods for solving the incremental stability problem are compared and it is found that the impedance matrix method, based on the resolution of a matrix Riccati differential equation, is the more precise. PMID:24711723

  13. Equality and selection for existence.

    PubMed Central

    Persson, I

    1999-01-01

    It is argued that the policy of excluding from further life some human gametes and pre-embryos as "unfit" for existence is not at odds with a defensible idea of human equality. Such an idea must be compatible with the obvious fact that the "functional" value of humans differs, that their "use" to themselves and others differs. A defensible idea of human equality is instead grounded in the fact that as this functional difference is genetically determined, it is nothing which makes humans deserve or be worthy of being better or worse off. Rather, nobody is worth a better life than anyone else. This idea of equality is, however, not applicable to gametes and pre-embryos, since they are not human beings, but something out of which human beings develop. PMID:10226918

  14. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  15. LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement.

    PubMed

    Slagstad, Helene; Brattebø, Helge

    2012-07-01

    When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues. PMID:22516101

  16. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.

  17. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse

  18. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W.

    2007-07-15

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  19. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  20. Development Of Strategy For The Management Of LLW In The United Kingdom

    SciTech Connect

    Wareing, A.S.; Fisher, J.

    2008-07-01

    The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is a UK non-departmental public body with a remit to clean up the civil public sector nuclear legacy. Much work has been done to date on developing contractor competition for the management of NDA-owned sites, including the UK's principal disposal facility: the Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) in Cumbria. The competition goals and principles are integrated with the framework for the development of a UK Low Level Waste (LLW) management plan, through which the NDA will deliver its commitments to UK Government and stakeholders. Nexia Solutions has undertaken work for the NDA in assessing strategic options and scenarios for the management and disposal of current UK LLW. The volumetric, radiological and strategic limitations of existing disposition routes have been assessed against the inventories and characteristics of LLW forecast to arise. A number of potential alternative scenarios and variants for future LLW management have been modelled and assessed. (authors)

  1. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  2. Subtype Diagnosis of Primary Aldosteronism: Approach to Different Clinical Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burrello, J; Monticone, S; Tetti, M; Rossato, D; Versace, K; Castellano, I; Williams, T A; Veglio, F; Mulatero, P

    2015-12-01

    Identification and management of patients with primary aldosteronism are of utmost importance because it is a frequent cause of endocrine hypertension, and affected patients display an increase of cardio- and cerebro-vascular events, compared to essential hypertensives. Distinction of primary aldosteronism subtypes is of particular relevance to allocate the patients to the appropriate treatment, represented by mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists for bilateral forms and unilateral adrenalectomy for patients with unilateral aldosterone secretion. Subtype differentiation of confirmed hyperaldosteronism comprises adrenal CT scanning and adrenal venous sampling. In this review, we will discuss different clinical scenarios where execution, interpretation of adrenal vein sampling and subsequent patient management might be challenging, providing the clinician with useful information to help the interpretation of controversial procedures. PMID:26575304

  3. Soil water balance scenario studies using predicted soil hydraulic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemes, A.; Wösten, J. H. M.; Bouma, J.; Várallyay, G.

    2006-03-01

    Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have become a topic drawing increasing interest within the field of soil and environmental research because they can provide important soil physical data at relatively low cost. Few studies, however, explore which contributions PTFs can make to land-use planning, in terms of examining the expected outcome of certain changes in soil and water management practices. This paper describes three scenario studies that show some aspects of how PTFs may help improve decision making about land management practices. We use an exploratory research approach using simulation modelling to explore the potential effect of alternative solutions in land management. We: (i) evaluate benefits and risks when irrigating a field, and the impact of soil heterogeneity; (ii) examine which changes can be expected (in terms of soil water balance and supply) if organic matter content is changed as a result of an alternative management system; (iii) evaluate the risk of leaching to deeper horizons in some soils of Hungary. Using this research approach, quantitative answers are provided to what if? type questions, allowing the distinction of trends and potential problems, which may contribute to the development of sustainable management systems.

  4. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes - Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented.

  5. Entrepreneur-Managers in Higher Education: (How) Do They Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birds, Rachel

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers in the United Kingdom increasingly emphasise the contribution of innovation and entrepreneurialism to the economy. Drawing on a recent ethnographic study of a university commercial enterprise, this article examines the notion of entrepreneurialism in a higher education institution as understood and practised by its employees. The…

  6. Third Mission Activities: University Managers' Perceptions on Existing Barriers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koryakina, Tatyana; Sarrico, Cláudia S.; Teixeira, Pedro N.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of increased international competition and financial austerity, an economic development mission has become an important strategic and policy issue for European higher education. This paper aims to contribute to knowledge regarding universities' engagement with the external environment and its impact on internal governance and…

  7. Entrepreneur-Managers in Higher Education: (How) Do They Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birds, Rachel

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers in the United Kingdom increasingly emphasise the contribution of innovation and entrepreneurialism to the economy. Drawing on a recent ethnographic study of a university commercial enterprise, this article examines the notion of entrepreneurialism in a higher education institution as understood and practised by its employees. The…

  8. The real world and lunar base activation scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Harrison H.

    1992-01-01

    A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

  9. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect

    Guzowski, R.V. |

    1994-12-31

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments.

  10. Two scenarios for quantum multifractality breakdown.

    PubMed

    Dubertrand, R; García-Mata, I; Georgeot, B; Giraud, O; Lemarié, G; Martin, J

    2014-06-13

    We expose two scenarios for the breakdown of quantum multifractality under the effect of perturbations. In the first scenario, multifractality survives below a certain scale of the quantum fluctuations. In the other one, the fluctuations of the wave functions are changed at every scale and each multifractal dimension smoothly goes to the ergodic value. We use as generic examples a one-dimensional dynamical system and the three-dimensional Anderson model at the metal-insulator transition. Based on our results, we conjecture that the sensitivity of quantum multifractality to perturbation is universal in the sense that it follows one of these two scenarios depending on the perturbation. We also discuss the experimental implications. PMID:24972209

  11. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  12. String GUT scenarios with stabilized moduli

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blumenhagen, Ralph; Moster, Sebastian; Plauschinn, Erik

    2008-09-01

    Taking into account the recently proposed poly-instanton corrections to the superpotential and combining the racetrack with a Kachru-Kallosh-Linde-Trivedi, respectively, large volume scenario in an intricate manner, we show that we gain exponential control over the parameters in an effective superpotential. This allows us to dynamically stabilize moduli such that a conventional minimal supersymmetric standard model scenario with the string scale lowered to the grand unified theory scale is realized. Depending on the cycles wrapped by the minimal supersymmetric standard model branes, two different scenarios for the hierarchy of soft masses arise. The first one is a supergravity mediated model with M3/2?1TeV while the second one features mixed anomaly supergravity mediation with M3/2?1010GeV and split supersymmetry. We also comment on dynamically lowering the scales such that the tree level cosmological constant is of the order ?=(10-3eV)4.

  13. Design Evaluation Process for Existing Waste Removal Design Documents

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, P.D.

    1995-05-12

    This document provides guidelines for implementing Engineering`s responsibility relating to evaluating the adequacy of existing project design outputs. At this time, there exists design documents that were prepared and approved for modifications to operating facilities, that may or may not have been constructed, but have never been turned over to the Operating Facility Management. The process described herein describes the methodology to perform an evaluation of these existing designs and document the findings. The key elements in this process are (1) to evaluate the existing design for general adequacy of the design, (2) to evaluate the existing design due to changes subsequent to the issuance of the documents (i.e. lessons learned, codes or standards change, changes to input documents, ect.), and (3) to verify the existence of critical supporting documentation in the areas of personnel safety, facility safety or environmental compliance.

  14. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities must... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false What energy...

  15. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities must... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What energy...

  16. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities must... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What energy...

  17. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities must... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What energy...

  18. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities must... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false What energy...

  19. Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.

  20. New trends in diabetes management: mobile telemedicine closed-loop system.

    PubMed

    Hernando, M Elena; Gómez, Enrique J; Gili, Antonio; Gómez, Mónica; García, Gema; del Pozo, Francisco

    2004-01-01

    The rapid growth and development of information technologies over recent years, in the areas of mobile and wireless technologies is shaping a new technological scenario of telemedicine in diabetes. This telemedicine scenario can play an important role for further acceptance by diabetic patients of the existing continuous glucose monitoring systems and insulin pumps with the final goal of improving current therapeutic procedures. This paper describes a Personal Smart Assistant integrated in a multi-access telemedicine architecture for the implementation of a mobile telemedicine closed-loop system for diabetes management. The system is being evaluated within the European Union project named INCA ("Intelligent Control Assistant for Diabetes"). PMID:15718596

  1. Performance enhancement of existing air conditioning systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mathur, G.D.

    1997-12-31

    The performance of an existing 5 ton (17.7 kW) air conditioning system with an EER of 8 has been simulated by retrofitting it with a two-phase natural circulation heat recovery loop and an evaporatively cooled condenser. The author has developed a simulation program for predicting the performance of existing air conditioning systems with one or both of the above retrofits for the performance enhancement. The performance of the air conditioning system is simulated for hot and humid climates which are typical of Southeastern US. The performance data along with an economic analysis has been presented in the paper. This investigation shows that by retrofitting an existing 5 ton air conditioning system with a two-phase natural circulation heat recovery loop and an evaporatively cooled condenser, the operational cost and the peak demand are reduced. Hence, there is a cost impact from both the utility and the consumer perspective. This also results in an increased dehumidification which improves the indoor air quality; and reduces compressor power. The results show that the system performance increases by 84.4% and results in a diversified peak reduction of 6.78 kW. For the present investigation, a combination of the above two retrofits will pay for itself in 0.71 year. On the basis of this investigation it is recommended that two-phase natural circulation heat recovery loops and evaporatively cooled condensers may be used for Demand Side Management (DSM) program for reducing energy consumption and peak demand for air conditioning in the residential and commercial sectors.

  2. The Spokane Tribe's multipathway subsistence exposure scenario and screening level RME.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara L; Flett, Brian; Harris, Stuart; Abeyta, Corn; Kirschner, Fred

    2002-06-01

    Exposure scenarios are a critical part of risk assessment; however, representative scenarios are not generally available for tribal communities where a traditional subsistence lifestyle and diet are relevant and actively encouraged. This article presents portions of a multipathway exposure scenario developed by AESE, Inc. in conjunction with the Spokane Tribal Cultural Resources Program. The scenario serves as the basis for a screening-level reasonable maximum exposure (RME) developed for the Midnite Uranium Mine Superfund site. The process used in developing this scenario balances the need to characterize exposures without revealing proprietary information. The scenario and resulting RME reflect the subsistence use of original and existing natural resources by a hypothetical but representative family living on the reservation at or near the mine site. The representative family lives in a house in a sparsely populated conifer forest, tends a home garden, partakes in a high rate of subsistence activities (hunting, gathering, fishing), uses a sweat lodge daily, has a regular schedule of other cultural activities, and has members employed in outdoor monitoring of natural and cultural resources. The scenario includes two largely subsistence diets based on fish or game, both of which include native plants and home-grown produce. Data gaps and sources of uncertainty are identified. Additional information that risk assessors and agencies need to understand before doing any kind of risk assessment or public health assessment in tribal situations is presented. PMID:12088230

  3. Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

    1997-01-01

    ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

  4. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  5. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  6. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  7. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  8. Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilpatrick, F.A.

    1977-01-01

    On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

  9. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  10. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

  11. Cardiopulmonary Bypass in Patients With Pre-existing Coagulopathy

    PubMed Central

    DeBois, William; Liu, Junli; Lee, Leonard; Girardi, Leonard; Ko, Wilson; Tortolani, Anthony; Krieger, Karl; Isom, O. Wayne

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: Patients with pre-existing coagulopathies who undergo surgical interventions are at increased risk for bleeding complications. This risk is especially true in cardiac surgical procedures with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) because of the necessity for heparinization and the use of the extracorporeal circuits, which have destructive effects on most of the blood components. In this review, cases of cardiac surgeries in patients with certain pre-existing coagulopathies are summarized, which could shed a light on future managements of such patients undergoing cardiac procedures with CPB. Pre-existing coagulopathies include antithrombin III deficiency, heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, cancer, factor XII deficiency, hemophilia, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, protein S deficiency, and drug-induced platelet inhibition. In summary, pre-existing coagulopathy in patients undergoing open-heart surgeries, if not recognized and appropriately managed, can cause serious complications. Management of patients undergoing cardiac procedures should include a routine coagulation work-up and a thorough past medical history examination. If any of the foregoing is abnormal, further evaluation is warranted. Proper diagnosis and management of the pre-existing coagulopathy disorders is of crucial importance to the surgical outcome and long-term morbidity. PMID:15804152

  12. The development of alternative case scenarios for hazard analyses under {section}112(r)(7)

    SciTech Connect

    Egan, B.A.; Yuhas, J.A.

    1997-12-31

    EPA`s 112(r)(7) rule, which requires the preparation of Risk Management Plans, requires sources to perform offsite consequence analyses for a worst case release scenario and also for alternative (more likely to occur) scenarios. The worst case scenarios are well defined by the regulation and will be recognized for most situations as over predicting the potential impact of a release major factors. Model selection does have an effect on calculated distances to toxic endpoints. However, as is shown, the magnitude of these results does not vary greatly. The need to define alternative scenarios presents an opportunity for sources to consider much more carefully what a more likely to occur (although, hopefully also improbable) accident might pose as a threat to the public. Precautionary and preventative as well as mitigative measures become more important to the actual safety of the public.

  13. Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

  14. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  15. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  16. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  17. Competency-Based Teacher Education: A Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Wilford A.; Cooper, James M.

    This fictitious scenario embodies all the characteristics and dimensions for a fully developed competency-based teacher education program envisioned by the authors. A single program and its implications for students, faculty, and the institution are presented. Specific areas of the program covered 1) a fundamental description of the competency…

  18. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the pr