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1

Scenario management and automated scenario generation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

2006-06-01

2

Management of keratoconus: current scenario.  

PubMed

Keratoconus is an ectatic corneal dystrophy and is a leading indication for corneal transplantation surgery worldwide. The disease was first described in detail more than 150 years ago by Dr John Nottingham, but the understanding of the disease and its management have undergone significant changes over the last few decades. Corneal specialists have adopted new techniques and technologies for the effective management of keratoconus, while adhering to the age-old concepts of contact lens fitting and penetrating keratoplasty. Lamellar keratoplasty has been revived with improved outcomes and devices such as intracorneal ring segments are being used to treat cases of early keratoconus effectively. This review article discusses the current scenario on the surgical as well as non-surgical management of keratoconus with a focus on the established, novel and emerging treatment modalities. PMID:20693553

Jhanji, Vishal; Sharma, Namrata; Vajpayee, Rasik B

2010-08-07

3

Scenarios, Real Options and Integrated Risk Management  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the 1970s, scenario planning gained prominence as a strategic management tool. Scenario planning encourages managers to envision plausible future states of the world and consider how to take advantage of opportunities and avoid potential threats. In the last decade, finance researchers have developed real option analysis as a way to value investments under uncertainty. Scenario planning and real option

Kent D. Miller; H. Gregory Waller

2003-01-01

4

Crises, scenarios and the strategic management process  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The aim of this exploratory paper is to consider the strategic importance of crisis management and integration of crisis planning with the organisation's strategy processes, in particular the utilisation of scenario planning as a crisis planning activity. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – A review of the crisis management literature was undertaken and key issues identified, subsequently strategic aspects of crisis management

David Pollard; Sabine Hotho

2006-01-01

5

Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.  

SciTech Connect

A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

2008-08-01

6

Enrollment Management Study: Five Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…

Albers, James R.; Burns, James A.

7

[Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].  

PubMed

This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

2012-06-01

8

Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

9

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios ...  

Treesearch

... management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of ... thinning, prescribed fire) resulted in total area of closed-canopy large- and ... Lynx canadensis, Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS),  ...

10

WebGIS-Based Flood Emergency Management Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

WebGIS provides key decision support capabilities for disaster and emergency management community. Perspective visualization and simultaneous access to emergency management data are among those capabilities that WebGIS provide in support of informed disaster management decisions-making process. This paper presents a WebGIS application for flood modeling for a section of the Don Valley watershed in Toronto, Canada. Different flooding scenarios under

Rifaat Abdalla; Keith Niall

2009-01-01

11

Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

2012-04-01

12

Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.  

PubMed

In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces. PMID:11066387

Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

2000-09-01

13

Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

2010-12-01

14

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

15

Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

2011-01-01

16

An examination of the ethical beliefs of managers using selected scenarios in a cross-cultural environment  

Microsoft Academic Search

Academic literature addressing the topic of business ethics has paid little attention to cross-cultural studies of business ethics. Uncertainty exists concerning the effect of culture on ethical beliefs. The purpose of this research is to compare the ethical beliefs of managers operating in South Africa and Australia. Responses of 52 managers to a series of ethical scenarios were sought. Results

Russell Abratt; Deon Nel; Nicola Susan Higgs

1992-01-01

17

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling  

PubMed Central

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address.

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-01-01

18

Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the everglades.  

PubMed

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

2013-10-11

19

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-10-01

20

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades  

PubMed Central

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

21

E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.  

PubMed

Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed. PMID:20151189

Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T

2010-02-12

22

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario

Theo J. B. M. Postma; Franz Liebl

2005-01-01

23

A hybrid simulation\\/optimisation scenario model for asset\\/liability management  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper we desciibe a decision support model to sustain management of pension-funds in the strategic planning of the available asset- and liability policy instruments. A main characteristic of the approach is that the relevant risk-drivers are modelled by scenarios, rather than by probability distributions. We will describe the scenario generation methodology, and how the scenarios are used by

Guus C. E. Boender

1997-01-01

24

A DSS for water resources management under uncertainty by scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Abstract: In this paper we present a scenario analysis approach to perform water system planning and management under climatic and hydrological uncertainty friendly data - input phase and results analysis Different generation techniques can be used to set up and analyze a number of scenarios modeled by a scenario - tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations

Stefano Pallottino; Giovanni M. Sechi; Paola Zuddas

2005-01-01

25

Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example  

SciTech Connect

This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

2011-12-01

26

Scenario planning approach to strategic management of small travel business in Malaysia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning, an alternative strategic management tool, has given a new meaning and dimension to the way strategy should be thought, discussed and implemented in organizations. This paper introduces scenario planning in the way the turbulent world should be better managed by looking for possible futures and not predicting the only future. No matter how rational strategic planners are, the

Nithi Sevaguru; Mohammad Samaun Safa

2005-01-01

27

Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus  

SciTech Connect

Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites.

Rousis, K.; Moustakas, K. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Chemical Engineering, Unit of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, Heroon Polytechniou St., Zographou Campus, P.C. 15773 Athens (Greece); Malamis, S. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Chemical Engineering, Unit of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, Heroon Polytechniou St., Zographou Campus, P.C. 15773 Athens (Greece)], E-mail: smalamis@central.ntua.gr; Papadopoulos, A.; Loizidou, M. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Chemical Engineering, Unit of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, Heroon Polytechniou St., Zographou Campus, P.C. 15773 Athens (Greece)

2008-07-01

28

Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.  

PubMed

Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites. PMID:18262405

Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

2008-02-08

29

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management  

Microsoft Academic Search

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of

S. Stewart; M. Mahmoud; Y. Liu; H. Hartman; T. Wagener; H. Gupta

2006-01-01

30

SCENARIO-BASED PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF SIMULATION GAME: A REVIEW  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper is devoted to scenario development methodology for planning and management of business simulation games. Nowadays the high efficiency of simulation games as a training method is obvious. Requirements to this kind of training are increasing. Modern computer technologies allow developing complex simulation games that are close to real life conditions. Generation of game scenarios is not a trivial

Jana Bikovska; Galina Merkuryeva

31

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY  

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

32

Scenarios for Public-Private Partnerships in Water Management: A Case Study from Jordan  

Microsoft Academic Search

The aim of this paper is to document the experience of public-private partnership (PPP) in the management of the domestic water sector in Amman city, Jordan. It also intends to reflect on the transformations in water management after the introduction of PPP using metaphors from ecology. Scenarios for water management are developed and assessed based on financial viability and political

Odeh R. Al-Jayyousi

2003-01-01

33

Progress and Pitfalls in Global Change Scenario Use for Water Resources Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water resources was one of the first sectors where focused interest in potential management challenges regarding future climate change was exhibited. This interest was a function of the relatively long planning horizon for water resources infrastructure as well as the centrality of the resource to most human enterprises. As the challenge of climate change draws nearer, use of scenarios for long-term planning has become more critical. To sensibly assess the threats and (sometimes) opportunities that water managers face they need scenarios of climate change and other key future factors (e.g., population, technology, economic development) to determine the climate's future impact on their sector and the factors that influence vulnerability. One key issue in scenario formation (and quantification of uncertainty characterized initially in scenarios) is that of reflexivity, or how to represent decisions within scenarios. This is usually an issue in scenarios of socio-economic development and other factors that influence the development of projections of emissions. One school of thought suggests that scenarios that directly involve human agency should not become part of a probabilistic enterprise, while another suggests that the condition poses no problem for rendering future population, technological advances etc.. This issue will be discussed in the context of water resource management needs for information about the future.

Mearns, L. O.

2006-12-01

34

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

2013-04-01

35

Hospitals become cost centers in managed care scenario.  

PubMed

In a risk-bearing managed care enterprise, acute-care facilities will change from being profit centers to being cost centers, and this transformation will require a focus on controlling costs rather than increasing admissions. This article details the elements of change that healthcare financial managers should consider, from the increased difficulty of matching revenue to expense, to the expanded role of clinical engineers. PMID:10146043

Keegan, A J

1994-08-01

36

Scenario Planning for Wildlife Management: A Case Study of the National Elk Refuge, Jackson, Wyoming  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since the 1980s, scenario planning has increasingly been used in business and military settings to integrate an appreciation of uncertainty about the future into planning processes. There is a growing precedent to use it in ecological management decision making. Although well suited for the purpose, the technique has not been adequately applied to wildlife management. This article presents a case

Mark W. Neff

2007-01-01

37

Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.  

PubMed

Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered. PMID:19837711

Christensen, Thomas H; Simion, Federico; Tonini, Davide; Møller, Jacob

2009-10-16

38

Evaluation of Operations Scenarios for Managing the Big Creek Marsh  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetland management in changing climate is important for maintaining sustainable ecosystem as well as for reducing the impact of climate change on the environment as wetlands act as natural carbon sinks. The Big Creek Marsh within the Essex County is a Provincially Significant Wetland (PSW) in Ontario, Canada. The marsh is approximately 900 hectares in area and is primarily fed by streamflow from the Big Creek Watershed. The water level of this wetland has been managed by the stakeholders using a system of pumps, dykes and a controlled outlet to the Lake Erie. In order to adequately manage the Big Creek Marsh and conserve diverse aquatic plant species, Essex Region Conservation Authority (ERCA), Ontario has embarked on developing an Operations Plan to maintain desire water depths during different marsh phases, viz., Open water, Hemi and Overgrown marsh phases. The objective of the study is to evaluate the alternatives for managing water level of the Big Creek Marsh in different marsh phases. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a continuous simulation model was used to simulate streamflow entering into the marsh from the Big Creek watershed. A Water Budget (WB) model was developed for the Big Creek Marsh to facilitate in operational management of the marsh. The WB model was applied to simulate the marsh level based on operations schedules, and available weather and hydrologic data aiming to attain the target water depths for the marsh phases. This paper presents the results of simulated and target water levels, streamflow entering into the marsh, water releasing from the marsh, and water pumping into and out of the marsh under different hydrologic conditions.

Wilson, Ian; Rahman, Masihur; Wychreschuk, Jeremy; Lebedyk, Dan; Bolisetti, Tirupati

2013-04-01

39

Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

40

Problems exist in financial management teaching and counter measures  

Microsoft Academic Search

With China and the west economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation in many aspects as well as Chinese rapid economic development, financial management has been developed from the initial simple investment, financing ideas into a mature subject branch coming to China. In China, financial management is a young subject, who has a relatively short history, its theoretical system, logical structure,

Zhao Rui; Zhou Xiaona; Mao Jiuzhi; Jin Huixin

2010-01-01

41

Development of a bridge management system for existing bridges  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recently, the rehabilitation of bridges has become a major social concern because the number of damaged bridges has increased in Japan. Thus, there is a need to develop a practical bridge management system. The present study is an attempt to develop a new bridge management system (J-BMS) for damaged concrete bridges. The J-BMS not only evaluates the performance of bridges,

Ayaho Miyamoto; Kei Kawamura; Hideaki Nakamura

2001-01-01

42

Managed care, consumerism, preventive medicine: does a causal connection exist?  

PubMed

Managed care plans, and HMOs in particular, have long touted that their emphasis is on preventive care, to avoid expensive illness later in life. However, few articles in the contemporary literature adequately address this claim. The available evidence seems to support that HMOs do, in fact, provide greater access to preventive services, but the limitations of this research are substantial. This article discusses the scientific evidence on the relationships between managed care arrangements and the implications for preventive care in the current era, emphasizing consumer choices and less-restrictive plan structures. PMID:16898346

Rizzo, John A; Xie, Yang

2006-07-01

43

Building New Water Resources Projects or Managing Existing Systems?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The planning of regional water resources systems and their subsequent management has to rest firmly on three foundations: availability of water of adequate quality, demand for water expressed quantitatively for specific periods of time, and direct, indirect, and externality costs. Mathematical models of hydrosystems represent only a segment of the real world. The basic science of hydrology is an empirical

Nathan Buras

2000-01-01

44

How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

2012-01-01

45

The RUNES Middleware for Networked Embedded Systems and its Application in a Disaster Management Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Due to the inherent nature of their heterogeneity, resource scarcity and dynamism, the provision of middleware for future networked embedded environments is a challenging task. In this paper we present a middleware approach that addresses these key challenges; we also discuss its application in a realistic networked embedded environment. Our application scenario involves fire management in a road tunnel that

Paolo Costa; Geoff Coulson; Richard Gold; Manish Lad; Cecilia Mascolo; Luca Mottola; Gian Pietro Picco; Thirunavukkarasu Sivaharan; Nirmal Weerasinghe; Stefanos Zachariadis

2007-01-01

46

An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.

Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lijing; Dai, Yongli; Fan, Yingying

2007-05-01

47

Cattle herd vulnerability to rainfall variability: responses to two management scenarios in southern Ethiopia.  

PubMed

We examine how the system of grazing management of cattle in savanna rangelands affects the herd response to drought. We have used long-term time series data to evaluate the effects of management on drought-induced cattle mortality using traditional livestock management practices. There was no control of stocking densities, as compared to a government ranch where stocking densities would be adjusted in accordance with available pasture. We tested the responses under two scenarios. Scenario 1: Response of cattle herds to inter-annual rainfall variability (IRV) under a regulated grazing management system; this provides more reliable predictions of cattle population and performance in terms of herd mortality and calving rates than does the communal land use system. Scenario 2: Regardless of the management system, similar trends in cattle populations will be observed in response to IRV. The results of the study showed that fluctuations in cattle numbers, herd mortality and calving rates were highly correlated with IRV, with stronger linear impacts in accordance with scenario 2. In both management systems, cattle herd sizes and calving rates declined during periods of drought, followed by slow recovery. Cattle populations in Borana rangelands in southern Ethiopia did not recover for a period of two decades. We conclude that a management system based on control of stocking densities did not improve herd survival, as compared with traditional drought management strategies. This contradicts common expectations. Increased drought frequencies aggravated cattle mortality and lowered calving rates. The implication of the findings is that regardless of adjusted stocking density, livestock populations in the arid savanna ecosystems of southern Ethiopia remain at risk from climate change. PMID:23054807

Angassa, Ayana; Oba, Gufu

2012-10-07

48

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.  

PubMed

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions. PMID:18488629

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

49

Electronic waste management cost: a scenario-based analysis for Greece.  

PubMed

Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is recognized as a priority waste stream internationally, mostly due to their volume and hazardousness. This paper presents an analysis for the quantification of WEEE management cost for Greece, taking into consideration scenarios for reverse logistics network's development and WEEE volume scenarios. Transportation cost, which represents a major cost element for any reverse logistics network, is modelled with the use of mathematical programming, targeting towards the optimization of locations for the development of required intermediate storage infrastructures. Additionally, overall operational cost and recycling fees are estimated. PMID:21242175

Achillas, Ch; Vlachokostas, Ch; Moussiopoulos, N; Perkoulidis, G; Banias, G; Mastropavlos, M

2011-01-17

50

Hydrological simulation of extreme flood scenarios for operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river requires comprehensive knowledge about the magnitude and characteristics of possible extreme flood events. Since these events are not sufficiently included in available historical records, an extended sample of extreme flood events was generated by hydrological scenario simulation. Present paper emphasises simulations in the German part of the catchment of the Middle Elbe river and introduces the stochastic-conceptual precipitation-runoff model which was developed for this task. After validation of this model and its coupling with the weather forecast model COSMO and hydraulic-numerical models, a set of 25 flood scenarios could be simulated and provided for a planning of flood protection measures. Analysis of simulated scenarios reveal that extreme flood events at the Mulde and Middle Elbe rivers may have a wide spectrum of characteristics and may considerably exceed the magnitude of past flood events (e.g., those of August 2002).

Helms, M.; Ihringer, J.; Mikovec, R.

2012-12-01

51

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.  

PubMed

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2012-06-19

52

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident  

PubMed Central

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management.

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

53

Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying & Utilizing an Existing Configuration & Data Management Infrastructure  

SciTech Connect

The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.

VANN, J.M.

2000-08-24

54

Urban water budgets: a comparative study of three landscape management scenarios in southern California  

Microsoft Academic Search

The fate of irrigation water in urban landscapes is highly uncertain, due in large part to uncertainties in urban ecohydrology. In this study, we compared evapotranspiration (ET), leaf-level stomatal conductance, and soil moisture of three landscapes managed under typical, retrofitted, and low-impact scenarios. The typical landscape consisted of fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub), a common cool-season turfgrass species. Watering was

N. S. Bijoor; D. Haver; D. E. Pataki

2009-01-01

55

Change Management: Key Factor in Pharmaceutical Organizations (Existing Information Systems Approach)  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this article we describe an integrated view of change management (CM) for the pharmaceutical organizations: a powerful concept for the users dealing with change. We present a clear approach that defines the change management framework and provides an efficient means of tracking changes to new and existing systems, applications, and environments within the organization. We argue that change management

Kashif Hussain; Shazia Yasin Mughal

2006-01-01

56

A GIS-based protocol for the simulation and evaluation of realistic 3-D thinning scenarios in recreational forest management.  

PubMed

This study introduces a GIS-based protocol for the simulation and evaluation of thinning treatments in recreational forest management. The protocol was implemented in a research study based on an area of recreational forest in Alishan National Scenic Area, Taiwan. Ground survey data were mapped to a GIS database, to create a precise, yet flexible, GIS-based digital forest. The digital forest model was used to generate 18 different thinning scenario images and one image of the existing unthinned forest. A questionnaire was completed by 456 participants while simultaneously viewing the scenario images. The questionnaire was used to determine the scenic beauty preferences of the respondents. Statistical analysis of the data revealed that the respondents preferred low density, upper-storey thinning treatments and a dispersed retention pattern of the remaining trees. High density upper-storey treatments evoked a strongly negative reaction in the observers. The experiment demonstrated that the proposed protocol is suitable for selecting an appropriate thinning strategy for recreational forest and that the protocol has practical value in recreational forest management. PMID:23062273

Lin, Chinsu; Thomson, Gavin; Hung, Shih-Hsiang; Lin, Yu-Dung

2012-10-11

57

Police Integrity: Rankings of Scenarios on the Klockars Scale by ‘‘Management Cops’’  

Microsoft Academic Search

Policing is recognized as a morally dangerous profession. This study extends analyses of police corruption via a scale developed by Carl Klockars by surveying police managers attending the Administrative Officers’ Course at the Southern Police Institute at the University of Louisville. The findings indicate that these police managers acknowledge the existence of a questionable moral climate in police agencies and

Gennaro F. Vito; Scott Wolfe; George E. Higgins; William F. Walsh

2011-01-01

58

Study on problems existing in building intelligent community and system integrated management in China  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper introduces the constitution of system in intelligent residential district, and analyzes errors and problems existing on building intelligent residential district and integrated management system of intelligent systems. It also presents the major principles should be followed for a good design of residential district of intelligent systems, and points out the significance of intelligent system integration management, last puts

Liu Lihong

2011-01-01

59

Risk management for existing energy facilities. A global approach to numerical safety goals  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a structured set of numerical safety goals for risk management of existing energy facilities. The rationale behind these safety goals is based on principles of equity and economic efficiency. Some of the issues involved when using probabilistic risk analyses results for safety decisions are discussed. A brief review of existing safety targets and [open quotes]floating numbers[close quotes] is presented, and a set of safety goals for industrial risk management is proposed. Relaxation of these standards for existing facilities, the relevance of the lifetime of the plant, the treatment of uncertainties, and problems of failure dependencies are discussed briefly. 17 refs., 1 fig.

Pate-Cornell, M.E. (Stanford Univ., CA (United States))

1993-05-01

60

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data  

PubMed Central

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making.

2011-01-01

61

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

Barbara C. Wales; Lowell H. Suring; Miles A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

62

77 FR 22337 - Privacy Act of 1974; Amendment to an Existing System of Records, Inventory Management System Also...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Existing System of Records, Inventory Management System Also Known as the Public...Act System of Records, Inventory Management System (IMS), also known as...PIH.01 SYSTEM NAME: Inventory Management System (IMS), also known...

2012-04-13

63

PCM Climate Change Scenario Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper explores the water resources impacts associated with climate change scenarios produced by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin (the Central Valley - CV) in California. Three transient climate ensembles from the PCM are used as inputs to a distributed macroscale hydrology model to produce daily transient streamflow scenarios throughout the two basins for the period 1998-2048. Water resource simulation models are then used to predict, on a monthly time-step, the effects of the climate change scenarios on streamflow timing and volume. In the strongly snowmelt dominated CRB, water resources impacts are associated primarily with changes in precipitation volumes (and secondarily by relatively small temperature changes) that reduce summer water supplies via reductions in winter snowpack. A one-month shift in the hydrologic peak endangers storage efficiencies for the CRB, which currently lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate winter flows in normal years. The shift exacerbates allocation problems during the late summer and early fall, while complicating the management of the flood season. Agricultural withdrawals, hydropower generation and federally-mandated streamflow requirements are threatened. In the CV, the climate change scenario temperature changes are larger than in the CRB, and the CV is affected more equally by changes in temperature and precipitation than is the CRB. Since water allocations in the CV are strongly dominated by irrigation, overall system reliability is reduced by the resulting streamflow timing and shifts and volume changes. The northern half of the CV experiences the greatest loss of snowpack, hence summer streamflows, when temperatures warm. Since the reservoirs in the northern portion of the CV serve agricultural, municipal, and industrial surface water needs for the entire region, even subtle shifts in streamflow timing and volume under current operational strategies pose severe problems. The predicted changes in future streamflows under climate change conditions will decrease reliability for hydropower generation, water supply, releases for fisheries support and flood control. To address these concerns in the CRB and CV, a series of operational alternatives are developed that mitigate future economic, hydropower and environmental impacts on the system. >http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~palmer/ACPI/home.htm

Palmer, R. N.; Van Rheenen, N. T.; Payne, J. T.; Hamlet, A. F.; Wood, A. W.

2001-12-01

64

A Study on Energy Management Contracting Pattern in Existing Building Energy Conservation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The chief object of the present study is to demonstrate and the characters and functions of Energy Management Contracting (EMC) in existing building energy conservation. According to the top topics of energy conservation and sustainable development, the patterns of EMC in building energy conservation were analyzed. The main technical measures for building facilities energy conservation were introduced, and a case

Wei Cai; Xiaodong Wen; Wei Gu

2010-01-01

65

Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m-2). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.

Carrera, Analia; Ares, Jorge; Labraga, Juan; Thurner, Stephanie; Bertiller, Mónica

2007-12-01

66

Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

2011-12-01

67

Multi-model integration in a decision support system: a technical user interface approach for watershed and lake management scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Computer simulations using mathematical models provide useful tools to investigate different scenarios based on watershed management strategies and environmental conditions. To study the impact of these strategies and conditions, different models must be linked or coupled following hydrological pathways in air, soil and water. To connect one model to another successfully, we need to resolve a number of computational issues

David C.-L. Lam; Luis F. León; Stuart Hamilton; Norm Crookshank; Derek Bonin; David A. Swayne

2004-01-01

68

Developing sustainable water management scenarios by using thorough hydrologic analysis and environmental criteria.  

PubMed

Wetlands constitute a significant source of life since they incorporate unique habitats with endemic and migrant species. They also contribute to the preservation of high global biodiversity and they are under protection according to EU legislation. Nevertheless, during the last century, significant degradation has been observed in wetlands, mainly due to intensification of agriculture and poor water management practices. Calcareous fens habitat with the endangered species Cladium mariscus and Carex spp. is an ecologically significant wetland that undergoes great ecological stresses globally, due to the irrational use of water resources. In Trichonis lake, Western Greece, this habitat has been under deterioration during the last 50 years due to the lack of a sustainable water management plan that has caused destabilization of the hydrologic balance and high water level fluctuations. This human induced hydrologic regime has led to seasonal shifting between drought and flooding which constitute unfavorable conditions for this fen habitat and as a result significant elimination of this ecosystem extent has occurred. This study has adopted technologically advanced scientific methods such as GIS applications and remote sensing techniques to quantify the existing water resources and formulate a sustainable management scheme by considering both anthropogenic water uses and environmental protection. PMID:14680901

Zacharias, I; Dimitriou, E; Koussouris, Th

2003-12-01

69

A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil  

PubMed Central

Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process.

2013-01-01

70

Change of soil carbon fluxes in European beech forest under different climate and management scenarios: an example from Serbia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature conditions and forest management determine the rate of soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. European beech is one of most important and most abundant tree species in Europe. Forest management strategy influences aboveground biomass as well as belowground biomass and soil organic and inorganic carbon. This study explores how different management strategies (i.e. thinning from above intensities with 10%, 20% and 30% removal of trees every ten years) under three different time periods 1971-2000, 2011-2040 and 2051-2080 of the IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario, influence total soil carbon stock in a beech stand in eastern Serbia. For the simulations, the process-based tree growth model 4C was used. At the beginning of the simulations, the total soil carbon stock was about 85 tC/ha. The most intensive management strategy appears to provide highest carbon fluxes into the soil and the highest total carbon stock values (between 160 and 180 tC/ha) at the end of the simulation periods. All management strategies under the climate of the period 2051-2080 showed the lowest values (about 160 tC/ha). We analyse the interrelationships between management caused changes in litter fluxes and climate (mainly temperature) caused losses of carbon from soil by respiration. In some cases different thinning intensities showed similar fluxes for the same time periods, whereas both climate scenario periods showed quite similar influence for the same management scenarios. The influence of different management strategies on the final total soil carbon stock will be shown.

Stojanovi?, Dejan; Orlovi?, Saša; Matovi?, Bratislav; Suckow, Felicitas; Lasch-Born, Petra; Gali?, Zoran; Reyer, Christopher; Gutsch, Martin; Peke?, Saša

2013-04-01

71

Preliminary analysis of perfusionists' strategies for managing routine and failure mode scenarios in cardiopulmonary bypass.  

PubMed

Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is a complex task requiring high levels of practitioner expertise. Although some education standards exist, few are based on an analysis of perfusionists' problem-solving needs. This study shows the efficacy of work domain analysis (WDA) as a framework for analyzing perfusionists' conceptualization and problem-solving strategies. A WDA model of a CPB circuit was developed. A high-fidelity CPB simulator (Manbit) was used to present routine and oxygenator failure scenarios to six proficient perfusionists. The video-cued recall technique was used to elicit perfusionists' conceptualization strategies. The resulting recall transcripts were coded using the WDA model and analyzed for associations between task completion times and patterns of conceptualization. The WDA model developed was successful in being able to account for and describe the thought process followed by each participant. It was also shown that, although there was no correlation between experience with CPB and ability to change an oxygenator, there was a link between the between specific thought patterns and the efficiency in undertaking this task. Simulators are widely used in many fields of human endeavor, and in this research, the attempt was made to use WDA to gain insights into the complexities of the human thought process when engaged in the complex task of conducting CPB. The assumption that experience equates with ability is challenged, and rather, it is shown that thought process is a more significant determinant of success when engaged in complex tasks. WDA analysis in combination with a CPB simulator may be used to elucidate successful strategies for completing complex tasks. PMID:17972450

Power, Gerald; Miller, Anne

2007-09-01

72

MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE SPORTS INJURIES AND MEDICAL CONDITIONS BY PHYSICAL THERAPISTS: ASSESSMENT VIA CASE SCENARIOS  

PubMed Central

Purpose/Background: Some physical therapists (PTs) provide services at sporting events, but there are limited studies investigating whether PTs are properly prepared to provide such services. The purpose of this study was to assess acute sports injury and medical condition management decision-making skills of PTs. Methods: A Web-based survey presented 17 case scenarios related to acute medical conditions and sport injuries. PTs from the Sports Physical Therapy Section of The American Physical Therapy Association were e-mailed a cover letter/Web link to the survey and invited to participate over a 30-day period. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results: A total of 411 of 5158 PTs who were members of the Sports Physical Therapy Association in 2009 and had valid e-mail addresses completed the survey, of which 389 (7.5%) were appropriate for analysis. Over 75.0% of respondents felt “prepared” or “somewhat prepared” to provide immediate care for 13 out of 16 medical conditions, with seizures, spinal cord injuries, and internal organ injuries having the lowest percentages. Over 75.0% of the respondents made “appropriate” or “overly cautious” decisions for 11 of the 17 acute injury or medical condition cases. Conclusions: Results of the current study indicate that PTs felt more “prepared” and tended to make “appropriate” return to play decisions on the acute sports injury and medical condition case studies more often than coaches who participated in a similar study, regardless of level of importance of the game or whether the athlete was a starter vs. non-starter. However, for PTs who plan on assisting at sporting events, additional preparation/education may be recommended, such as what is taught in an emergency responder course.

Karges, Joy Renae; Salsbery, Mitchell A.; Smith, Danna; Stanley, Erica J.

2011-01-01

73

Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site  

SciTech Connect

Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

1980-11-01

74

Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying and Utilizing an Existing Configuration and Data Management Infrastructure  

SciTech Connect

The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.

VANN, J.M.

2000-09-25

75

Modeling scenarios for water resources management in a semi-arid catchment "Merguellil - Tunisia"  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the Mediterranean climatic zone, also labeled as semi-arid area, hydrological processes are largely variable both in time and space due to the high variability of rainfall regime, the influence of topography and the spatial distribution of geology, soil and land use. These processes may also have changed due to a range of human activities such as land use changes, dams building, soil and water conservations works. Besides, there is a general agreement that global climate change is taking place in the Mediterranean basin. The Merguellil catchment (Central Tunisia), as a typical Mediterranean semi-arid basin, suffers regular water shortage aggravated by current drought with different degrees of frequency, intensity and severity. In addition, the hydrological regime has been changed over the last decade in this catchment. The construction of the large El Haouareb dam (1989) increases the surface storage and evaporations losses. Soil and water Conservation Works (SWCW) (ie. benches terraces) and others small and large dams have altered the hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-2000) model was used in order to simulate the water and nutrient balance at the catchment scale. The simulation results revealed that evapotranspiration is the major component (91%) of the hydrological balance. Hydrological Calibration (1992-1994) and validation (1996-1998) have been carried out referring to a daily flow data at the Hafouz flowgage. The model performance was satisfactory and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranges between 0.3 to 0.5. The water quality simulation shows that Phosphorus simulated concentrations better matched existing measurements. In order to improve the availability of high quality water, three scenarios were generated. Firstly, the total or partial removal of SWCWs from the upstream area has shown an increase of the surface runoff and sediment loading at the outlet. Secondly, by reducing 20% in the applied fertilizers, no change was detected in the crop yield, whereas on a yearly scale, it has been noted a reduction in sediment and nutrient loads. Finally to assess the potential impact of climate change, the predicted precipitations and temperatures (for 2020, 2050 and 2080) from the general circulation model HadCm3 developed by UK Hadley Center for climatic prediction and research, were used. All the components of the water and nutrient balance are foreseen to decrease. A longer arid period in summer is also predicted leading to a decrease of the sediment and nutrient load in that period.

Abouabdillah, A.; Lo Porto, A.; de Girolamo, A. M.; Sakka, M.

2009-04-01

76

A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

77

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

78

Urban water budgets: a comparative study of three landscape management scenarios in southern California  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The fate of irrigation water in urban landscapes is highly uncertain, due in large part to uncertainties in urban ecohydrology. In this study, we compared evapotranspiration (ET), leaf-level stomatal conductance, and soil moisture of three landscapes managed under typical, retrofitted, and low-impact scenarios. The typical landscape consisted of fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub), a common cool-season turfgrass species. Watering was controlled by a timer and occurred on a daily basis, representative of irrigation by most homeowners. The retrofitted landscape consisted of seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum), a warm-season species, and watering was based on measurements of soil moisture. The low-impact landscape consisted of mixed species of cool-season native sedge (Carex), and watering was based on measurements of weather conditions. The amount of irrigation received was highest in the typical landscape, and lowest in the retrofitted landscape. We hypothesized that the low-impact landscape would have the highest irrigation efficiency or IE (ET/applied irrigation water) while the typical landscape would have the lowest, due to differences in stomatal conductance and soil moisture. ET was measured using a chamber technique, and stomatal conductance was determined using a porometer. Destructive samples were used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture was measured using time domain reflectometry (TDR). We found no significant difference in soil moisture among landscapes, except in spring when the retrofitted landscape was drier than the other two. The average annual ET was similar among landscapes, though there were large seasonal differences. In the fall, the ET of sedge was higher than fescue, and paspalum did not differ from the other two species. In the winter, the ET of the warm-season grass paspalum was lower than the cool-season sedge and similar to fescue. In spring, there were no differences among species. In summer, the ET of paspalum was higher than the other two species, which did not differ. Species differences in stomatal conductance were usually similar to ET, and the highest conductances were from paspalum during the summer. Below canopy vapor pressure deficit was extremely low (<0.5 kPa), suggesting low evaporative losses. Due to high LAI, ET is likely dominated by transpiration. The typical landscape had the lowest IE of 40%. It was unexpected that the low-impact landscape had only a slightly higher IE of 49%, while the highest IE of 68% was of the retrofitted landscape. Even in a high IE landscape, it is surprising that nearly one-third of applied irrigation may be lost as drainage or runoff. Along with the large volume of inefficient water use, drainage and runoff from turfgrass may contain pesticides and fertilizer, adding to possible environmental consequences.

Bijoor, N. S.; Haver, D.; Pataki, D. E.

2009-12-01

79

Topical Report on Release Scenario Analysis of Long-Term Management of High-Level Defense Waste at the Hanford Site.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanfo...

R. W. Wallace D. K. Landstrom S. C. Blair B. W. Howes M. A. Robkin

1980-01-01

80

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China  

SciTech Connect

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China); Li Xiangzhi [Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, 1301 Catherine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhaojie Cui [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)

2010-11-15

81

Scenario analysis for the role of sanitation infrastructures in integrated urban wastewater management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Traditionally, the sanitation infrastructures of most of the Urban Wastewater Systems (UWSs) have been managed individually, without considering the many relationships among the sewer systems, Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) and receiving waters. The main objective of WWTP management was to comply with the emission limits, without considering the ecological state of the receiving waters. However, the European Union approved the

F. Devesa; Joaquim Comas; Clàudia Turon; A. Freixó; F. Carrasco; Manel Poch

2009-01-01

82

Fishing management scenarios to rebuild exploited resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic (Mediterranean Sea)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We examined various fishing management options to recover exploited marine resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea. Dynamic simulations were based on a spatial ecological model previously calibrated with time series of data. Scenarios regarding spatial management were evaluated with the establishment of two marine protected areas, respectively, in the Pomo pit and the northern region. In addition, three temporal simulations of temporary closures and overall reduction of fishing effort of demersal and pelagic fleets (bottom, mid-water trawls and purse seines) were also considered. Simulations were run for 45 years (1975-2020), including the calibration period (1975-2002), and changes in biomass and catch of marine resources were analyzed. Our results confirm that current fishing management in the Adriatic Sea does not have clear beneficial impacts for the recovery of exploited resources, which will remain depleted in 2020 if "business as usual" continues. Simulations of alternative management suggest that both protected areas could be beneficial for fish population recovery predicting an increase in the biomass of commercial fish and predatory organisms. Simulations of temporary closures and overall reduction of fishing effort also show significant benefits for several commercial resources. We argue that both management measures may be effective tools to recover exploited ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea and halt the decline of marine resources.

Fouzai, Nadia; Coll, Marta; Palomera, Isabel; Santojanni, Alberto; Arneri, Enrico; Christensen, Villy

2012-10-01

83

How to Assess Global Management Competencies: An Investigation of Existing Instruments  

Microsoft Academic Search

Managers and employees need global leadership competencies in order to operate effectively in international business. In order to prepare both managers and employees for operating in the global arena an instrument measuring global leadership competencies would be very useful. In this article we design a framework for systematically assessing measurement instruments designed to measure Global Management Competencies (GMC). Based on

Joost Buecker; Erik Poutsma

2010-01-01

84

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION FROM CONTRASTING MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

To identify and develop economically viable and environmentally sustainable farming systems, the risks and benefits associated with various management strategies need characterization. We hypothesized that minimized tillage and diversified crop rotation can improve soil quality and enhance sustainab...

85

A study on the comparison of the various waste management scenarios for PET bottles using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology  

Microsoft Academic Search

A comparison study on the various waste management scenarios of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles has been carried out using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The energy and material balances were set up to account for all the energy consumed and the emissions released by each stage of the production and waste management phases of the life-cycle of the PET bottles,

Hyun-Seob Song; Jae Chun Hyun

1999-01-01

86

Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Theemergingcarboneconomywillhaveamajorimpactongrazingbusinessesbecauseofsignificantlivestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for ~11% of Australia's reported greenhousegasemissions.Grazingbusinessesneedtodevelopanunderstandingoftheirgreenhousegasimpactandbeable to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern- central

S. G. BrayA; R. GoldenB

87

Resources Allocation Problem for Local Reserve Depots in Disaster Management Based on Scenario Analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Resource allocation problem for local reserve depots in disaster management is consid- ered in this paper. In order to prepare for natural and manmade disasters of various scales, local government need to decide what kinds of and how much amount of commodities should be main- tained in local reserve depots in order to cope with slight disasters, while cooperating with

Jianming Zhu; Jun Huang; Degang Liu; Jiye Han

2008-01-01

88

Does Interdisciplinarity Exist Behind the Façade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching  

Microsoft Academic Search

We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the façade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed about interdisciplinarity, believed it is important in a natural resource management degree, and participants viewed the

Emma Pharo; Kerry Bridle

2012-01-01

89

Does Interdisciplinarity Exist Behind the Façade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching  

Microsoft Academic Search

We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the façade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed about interdisciplinarity, believed it is important in a natural resource management degree, and participants viewed the

Emma Pharo; Kerry Bridle

2011-01-01

90

Sustainable transboundary groundwater management under shifting political scenarios: the Ceylanpinar Aquifer and Turkey–Syria relations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent scholarship evaluates how peace and conflict affect resource sustainability. The authors of this article address how enhanced Turkey–Syria cooperation could impact management of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer, which flows beneath both countries and accounts for over10% of Turkey's transboundary groundwater discharge. Although the Euphrates–Tigris river system apportionment has been critical for bilateral relations, allocation of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer has been

Mehmet Öztan; Mark Axelrod

2011-01-01

91

An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty  

Microsoft Academic Search

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water\\u000a resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues\\u000a and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems\\u000a have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that

Yong Liu; Huaicheng Guo; Zhenxing Zhang; Lijing Wang; Yongli Dai; Yingying Fan

2007-01-01

92

The Impact of Goal Alignment on Board Existence and Top Management Team Composition: Evidence from Family-Influenced Businesses &ast  

Microsoft Academic Search

Using a sample of 714 private family influenced businesses in Germany, we investigate the relationship of goal alignment between owners and managers and the existence of a board of directors. Agency theory and stewardship theory serve as theoretical bases for our study. We find that firms with relatively high levels of goal alignment are less likely to have a board

Torsten M. Pieper; Sabine B. Klein; Peter Jaskiewicz

2008-01-01

93

Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes  

SciTech Connect

This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

2012-12-01

94

Does Interdisciplinarity Exist behind the Facade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the facade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed…

Pharo, Emma; Bridle, Kerry

2012-01-01

95

An investigation of the existing situation and trends in building energy efficiency management in China  

Microsoft Academic Search

According to the Chinese State Council's “Building Energy Efficiency Management Ordinance”, a large-scale investigation of energy efficiency (EE) in buildings in contemporary China has been carried out in 22 provincial capitals and major cities in China. The aim of this project is to provide reliable information for drawing up the “Decision on reinforcing building energy efficiency” by the Ministry of

Jing Liang; Baizhan Li; Yong Wu; Runming Yao

2007-01-01

96

Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an existing, relational database containing oceanographic metadata, along with an existing interface coded in Cold Fusion middleware, to a Drupal6 Content Management System. The goal was to translate all the existing database tables, input forms, website reports, and other features present in the existing system to employ Drupal CMS features. The replacement features include Drupal content types, CCK node-reference fields, themes, RDB, SPARQL, workflow, and a number of other supporting modules. Strategic use of some Drupal6 CMS features enables three separate but complementary interfaces that provide access to oceanographic research metadata via the MySQL database: 1) a Drupal6-powered front-end; 2) a standard SQL port (used to provide a Mapserver interface to the metadata and data; and 3) a SPARQL port (feeding a new faceted search capability being developed). Future plans include the creation of science ontologies, by scientist/technologist teams, that will drive semantically-enabled faceted search capabilities planned for the site. Incorporation of semantic technologies included in the future Drupal 7 core release is also anticipated. Using a public domain CMS as opposed to proprietary middleware, and taking advantage of the many features of Drupal 6 that are designed to support semantically-enabled interfaces will help prepare the BCO-DMO database for interoperability with other ecosystem databases.

Maffei, A. R.; Chandler, C. L.; Work, T.; Allen, J.; Groman, R. C.; Fox, P. A.

2009-12-01

97

Detection and Management of Pre-Existing Cognitive Impairment and Associated Behavioral Symptoms in the Intensive Care Unit  

PubMed Central

Recent increase in both the elderly population and associated incidence of dementia are of critical importance to patient care in intensive care units (ICU) in the United States. Identification of pre-existing cognitive impairment such as mild cognitive impairment and dementia could prevent delirium and associated morbidity and mortality in ICU. Additionally, non-cognitive behavioral symptoms such as depression, psychosis, agitation, and catastrophic reactions are common in patients with pre-existing cognitive impairment. Detection and management of non-cognitive behavioral symptoms associated with demented elderly patients in ICU leads to improved delivery of life-saving critical care.

Lee, Hochang B.; DeLoatch, Candyce J.; Cho, SeongJin; Rosenberg, Paul; Mears, Simon C.; Sieber, Frederick E.

2008-01-01

98

Pre-existing Inland Fisheries Management in Thailand: The Case of the Lower Songkhram River Basin  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The livelihoods and food security of many Thai rural communities depend on inland capture fisheries, which are characterized\\u000a by multiple species, diverse habitats and complex ecosystems. Current fisheries management in Thailand can neither control\\u000a levels of exploitation and illegal fishing, nor can it achieve an equitable sharing of resources, which have become degraded\\u000a and the focus of serious conflict. The

Malasri Khumsri

99

Design and evaluation of simulation scenarios for a program introducing patient safety, teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to healthcare leaders and managers.  

PubMed

We developed a training program to introduce managers and informal leaders of healthcare organizations to key concepts of teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to motivate them to act as leaders to improve safety within their sphere of influence. This report describes the simulation scenario and debriefing that are core elements of that program. Twelve teams of clinician and nonclinician managers were selected from a larger set of volunteers to participate in a 1-day, multielement training program. Two simulation exercises were developed: one for teams of nonclinicians and the other for clinicians or mixed groups. The scenarios represented two different clinical situations, each designed to engage participants in discussions of their safety leadership and teamwork issues immediately after the experience. In the scenarios for nonclinicians, participants conducted an anesthetic induction and then managed an ethical situation. The scenario for clinicians simulated a consulting visit to an emergency room that evolved into a problem-solving challenge. Participants in this scenario had a limited time to prepare advice for hospital leadership on how to improve observed safety and cultural deficiencies. Debriefings after both types of scenarios were conducted using principles of "debriefing with good judgment." We assessed the relevance and impact of the program by analyzing participant reactions to the simulation through transcript data and facilitator observations as well as a postcourse questionnaire. The teams generally reported positive perceptions of the relevance and quality of the simulation with varying types and degrees of impact on their leadership and teamwork behaviors. These kinds of clinical simulation exercises can be used to teach healthcare leaders and managers safety leadership and teamwork skills and behaviors. PMID:21642906

Cooper, Jeffrey B; Singer, Sara J; Hayes, Jennifer; Sales, Michael; Vogt, Jay W; Raemer, Daniel; Meyer, Gregg S

2011-08-01

100

Managing data quality in an existing medical data warehouse using business intelligence technologies.  

PubMed

The Ohio State University Medical Center (OSUMC) Information Warehouse (IW) is a comprehensive data warehousing facility that provides providing data integration, management, mining, training, and development services to a diversity of customers across the clinical, education, and research sectors of the OSUMC. Providing accurate and complete data is a must for these purposes. In order to monitor the data quality of targeted data sets, an online scorecard has been developed to allow visualization of the critical measures of data quality in the Information Warehouse. PMID:18998950

Eaton, Scott; Ostrander, Michael; Santangelo, Jennifer; Kamal, Jyoti

2008-11-06

101

Update on the management of restless legs syndrome: existing and emerging treatment options  

PubMed Central

Restless legs syndrome (RLS) is a sensorimotor disorder, characterized by a circadian variation of symptoms involving an urge to move the limbs (usually the legs) as well as paresthesias. There is a primary (familial) and a secondary (acquired) form, which affects a wide variety of individuals, such as pregnant women, patients with end-stage renal disease, iron deficiency, rheumatic disease, and persons taking medications. The symptoms reflect a circadian fluctuation of dopamine in the substantia nigra. RLS patients have lower dopamine and iron levels in the substantia nigra and respond to both dopaminergic therapy and iron administration. Iron, as a cofactor of dopamine production and a regulator of the expression of dopamine type 2-receptor, has an important role in the RLS etiology. In the management of the disease, the first step is to investigate possible secondary causes and their treatment. Dopaminergic agents are considered as the first-line therapy for moderate to severe RLS. If dopaminergic drugs are contraindicated or not efficacious, or if symptoms are resistant and unremitting, gabapentin or other antiepileptic agents, benzodiazepines, or opioids can be used for RLS therapy. Undiagnosed, wrongly diagnosed, and untreated RLS is associated with a significant impairment of the quality of life.

Facheris, Maurizio F; Hicks, Andrew A; Pramstaller, Peter P; Pichler, Irene

2010-01-01

102

Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)  

SciTech Connect

Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

2010-12-01

103

Development of failure scenarios for biosolids land application risk assessment.  

PubMed

Although deviations from standard guidance for land application of biosolids occur in practice, their importance is largely unknown. A list of such deviations (plausible failure scenarios) were identified at a workshop of industry, regulators, and academic professionals. Next, a survey of similar professionals was conducted to rank the plausible failure scenarios according to their severity, frequency, incentive to ignore control measures, gaps in existing control processes, public concern, and overall concern. Survey participants rated intentional dumping (unpermitted disposal) as the most severe of the failure scenarios, lack of worker protection as the most frequent scenario, and application of Class A biosolids that have failed to meet treatment standards as the scenario for which incentives to ignore control measures are highest. Failure of public access restrictions to application sites was the scenario for which existing controls were judged the weakest; application of biosolids too close to wells was ranked highest for public concern and for overall concern. Two scenarios for which existing controls were considered weaker, site restriction violations and animal contact leading to human exposure, were also rated as frequently occurring. Both scenarios are related in that they (1) involve inappropriate access to a site before the required time has elapsed, and (2) could be addressed through similar biosolids management measures. PMID:23472330

Galada, Heather C; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S; Teng, Jingjie; Kumar, Arun; Wardell, Michael; Eggers, Sara; Casman, Elizabeth

2013-02-01

104

An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The need to improve smallholder rainfed maize production in a sustainable manner is important in South Africa, as maize is a staple food to the rural indigenous population. Smallholder maize production is often characterised by low yields, which are often significantly lower than the potential for the land. However, sustainable maize production is not only a question of yields, but also of protection of the environmental resource base, social welfare, and the livelihoods of farmers as well as adjacent rural and urban communities. Sustainability for the smallholder farmer raises questions of household food security, farmer and community well-being as well as agro-ecosystem integrity. Sustainability was assessed at the smallholder agro-ecosystem scale using a goal-orientated sustainability framework. The use of the physically based CERES-Maize crop model within the sustainability framework meant that agro-ecosystem responses to different management options (e.g. tillage systems and fertiliser application) and climate change scenarios could be quantified. The agro-ecosystem that has been simulated is at Potshini village, which is about 10 km from Bergville in the western-central region of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The agro-ecosystem was simulated for different management strategies for a range of plausible future climate scenarios for South Africa. The future climate scenarios of ‘2 × CO2’ and ‘2 × CO2 + 10%rain’ had the biggest positive effect on mean grain yield. These scenarios had increases of over 1000 kg/ha with inorganic fertiliser and ˜200 kg/ha with manure. The largest negative effects on yield are with the ‘+2 °C’ scenario. The biggest increase in losses of organic nitrogen were with the ‘2 × CO2 + 2 °C’ scenario where losses increased by up to 5%.

Walker, N. J.; Schulze, R. E.

105

Scenario planning.  

PubMed

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. PMID:21371667

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

106

The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be delivered via the EHP web pages in a user-searchable archive. In addition, we aim to duplicate most of the real-time earthquake event web page functionality for scenario drills and exercises, including all standard post-earthquake information tools. Hence, for each event, USGS PAGER runs will be produced, providing population exposure at current population levels, and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will produce HAZUS impact assessments. Anticipated users include FEMA, the loss modeling and insurance communities, emergency responders and mitigation planners (city, county, state, industry, utilities, corporate), the general public and the media. The Earthquake Scenario Project will also take on several pending scientific challenges related to scenario generation, including ways to include fault directivity, numerical ground motions, and ways to produce ground motion uncertainties (in addition to median peak ground motions). A parallel though less comprehensive effort is underway to produce scenarios for targeted regions and events around the globe.

Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

2009-12-01

107

Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

2008-10-01

108

Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area) and regional (upper Rhine valley) scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

Ponche, J.-L.; Vinuesa, J.-F.

2005-03-01

109

Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area) and regional (upper Rhine valley) scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

Ponche, J.-L.; Vinuesa, J.-F.

2004-12-01

110

Seismic risk scenario planning and sustainable tourism management: Christchurch and the Alpine Fault zone, South Island, New Zealand  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper makes the case for natural disaster emergency planning to be incorporated into sustainable tourism strategies, using seismic risk scenario planning as a technique, and the Southern Alps of the South island of New Zealand as an example. The Alpine Fault is a 450-km-long geological structure running the length of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. Paleoseismic evidence suggests

Caroline Orchiston

2011-01-01

111

Seismic risk scenario planning and sustainable tourism management: Christchurch and the Alpine Fault zone, South Island, New Zealand  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper makes the case for natural disaster emergency planning to be incorporated into sustainable tourism strategies, using seismic risk scenario planning as a technique, and the Southern Alps of the South island of New Zealand as an example. The Alpine Fault is a 450-km-long geological structure running the length of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. Paleoseismic evidence suggests

Caroline Orchiston

2012-01-01

112

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities,

Franklin Dexter; Ruth E Wachtel; Richard H Epstein

2011-01-01

113

Technology forecasting for residential energy management devices  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to forecast the performance and adoption of residential energy management technology (REMT). Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The paper integrates scenarios, analogy and Bass diffusion model. Findings – Four different scenarios were identified. Bass curve parameters were extracted through many different existing devices, and then fit into each scenario subjectively to produce four different kinds

Tugrul U. Daim; Ibrahim Iskin; Daniel Ho

2011-01-01

114

Decision support in urban water management based on generic scenarios: the example of NoMix technology.  

PubMed

Urine source separation (NoMix technology) followed by processing the concentrated nutrient solution has the potential to become a cost-efficient alternative to conventional end-of-pipe nutrient elimination. A choice of processing technologies can only be made for specific scenarios, and there is currently no methodology for analyzing generic situations. In setting up a formalized decision-support methodology (based on STEEPLED analysis), we discuss how to create such generic scenarios, how to couple them with process engineering objectives, how to define the technology requirements, and finally how to produce a realistic subset of technology alternatives. The methodology is tested in five real scenarios. We also touch on the criteria for a final choice of technology taking into account large uncertainties about the performance of real technologies. We conclude that technology development is one of the most important requirements for implementing urine source separation in practice. There is an urgent need to develop cost-efficient processing technologies that satisfy the requirements of stakeholders. PMID:20728264

Larsen, Tove A; Maurer, Max; Eggen, Rik I L; Pronk, Wouter; Lienert, Judit

2010-08-21

115

Scenario Planning  

Microsoft Academic Search

This note introduces and describes scenario building, the strategic-thinking approach developed by Pierre Wack and associates at Royal Dutch\\/Shell in the 1970s and helped catapult the company from seventh to second in its industry. The note defines the concept, outlines who should use it and how it links to strategic planning, and illustrates it with models and verbal examples. The

James Clawson; Leslie Grayson

116

Approaches to Teaching: Adapting Cases in Operations Management for Use in the Technical Writing Classroom.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Describes how technical writing teachers can adapt existing operations management cases for the writing classroom by recognizing communication gaps and filling them with appropriate writing scenarios. (ARH)|

Morrow, John

1988-01-01

117

Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage th...

A. J. Brothers P. D. Whitney K. E. Wolf O. A. Kuchar G. Chin

2005-01-01

118

National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment  

Microsoft Academic Search

An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate

Frank Werner; Ruedi Taverna; Peter Hofer; Esther Thürig; Edgar Kaufmann

2010-01-01

119

Use of primary corticosteroid injection in the management of plantar fasciopathy: is it time to challenge existing practice?  

PubMed

Plantar fasciopathy (PF) is characterized by degeneration of the fascia at the calcaneal enthesis. It is a common cause of foot pain, accounting for 90% of clinical presentations of heel pathology. In 2009-2010, 9.3 million working days were lost in England due to musculoskeletal disorders, with 2.4 million of those attributable to lower-limb disorders, averaging 16.3 lost working days per case. Numerous studies have attempted to establish the short- and long-term clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections in the management of PF. Earlier studies have not informed clinical practice. As the research base has developed, evidence has emerged supporting clinical efficacy. With diverse opinions surrounding the etiology and efficacy debate, there does not seem to be a consensus of opinion on a common treatment pathway. For example, in England, the National Institute for Clinical Health and Excellence does not publish strategic guidance for clinical practice. Herein, we review and evaluate core literature that examines the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injection as a treatment for PF. Outcome measures were wide ranging but largely yielded results supportive of the short- and long-term benefits of this modality. The analysis also looked to establish, where possible, "proof of concept." This article provides evidence supporting the clinical efficacy of corticosteroid injections, in particular those guided by imaging technology. The evidence challenges existing orthodoxy, which marginalizes this treatment as a secondary option. This challenge is supported by recently revised guidelines published by the American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons advocating corticosteroid injection as a primary treatment option. PMID:24072372

Kirkland, Paul; Beeson, Paul

120

Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system  

Microsoft Academic Search

Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an

A. R. Maffei; C. L. Chandler; T. Work; J. Allen; R. C. Groman; P. A. Fox

2009-01-01

121

Existing capacity to manage pharmaceuticals and related commodities in East Africa: an assessment with specific reference to antiretroviral therapy  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: East African countries have in the recent past experienced a tremendous increase in the volume of antiretroviral drugs. Capacity to manage these medicines in the region remains limited. Makerere University, with technical assistance from the USAID supported Rational Pharmaceutical Management Plus (RPM Plus) Program of Management Sciences for Health (MSH) established a network of academic institutions to build capacity

Paul J Waako; Richard Odoi-adome; Celestino Obua; Erisa Owino; Winnie Tumwikirize; Jasper Ogwal-okeng; Willy W Anokbonggo; Lloyd Matowe; Onesky Aupont

2009-01-01

122

A new hierarchical architecture for Air Traffic Management: Optimisation of airway capacity in a Free Flight scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

We describe a new two-level hierarchical architecture for air traffic management problems with corresponding mathematical models. The first level represents the air route network, and its solutions provide the air traffic flows on each arc of the network. This level interacts with the second one, which represents the single airway and its own air traffic flows. This latter model allows

Paolo Dell'olmo; Guglielmo Lulli

2003-01-01

123

Use of a conceptual model of societal drivers of ecological change in South Florida: Implications of an ecosystem management scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Human-dominated ecosystems such as in South Florida's Everglades region are greatly affected by societal actions and choices, and efforts to restore degraded ecosystems must take into account the societal drivers of ecosystem change. A conceptual model of societal-ecological interactions within the region illustrates connections between major societal drivers, such as water management and land use, and ecological stressors, such as

Christine C. Harwell; Christopher W. Deren; George H. Snyder; William D. Solecki; James Wilson; Mark A. Harwell

1999-01-01

124

Learning from global emissions scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-10-01

125

The context of policy design for existing community-based fisheries management systems in the Pacific Islands  

Microsoft Academic Search

Community-based fisheries management is being widely promoted as an alternative to centralized systems based on the familiar bioeconomic models that have manifestly failed to prevent a near catastrophic overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. The Pacific Island Region probably contains the world’s greatest concentration of still-functioning traditional community-based systems for managing coastal-marine fisheries and other resources.It has been frequently asserted that

Kenneth Ruddle

1998-01-01

126

Charting the existence and approaches to management of the tattooing and body piercing industry — a historical overview  

Microsoft Academic Search

Tattooing and body piercing as ancient body arts have existed throughout the centuries. Wholly human phenomena, they are activities that have human phenomena, they are activities that have been practised in almost all cultures at one time or another (Caplan, 2000) and continue and grow in popularity in modern day Western societies (Camphausen, 1997; Rush 2005).The first of a three-part

Claire Chalmers

2009-01-01

127

An Integrated Risk Assessment Tool to Evaluate the Existing Risk Managment System Within a Health Care Facility  

Microsoft Academic Search

Risk assessment is a method used to identify risks within an organisation. It is required by the Safety Health and Welfare at Work Act, 189 for the purpose of safety management. No one method can effectively identify all types of hazard and risks within organisations. The insufficiency of individual risk assessment techniques to generate objective data as to the level

Laura F. Breen

2001-01-01

128

Management System of Security and Health in the Labour – a Premise of the Firm Existence After Romania Adhesion to EU  

Microsoft Academic Search

The general labor protection norms,ed.2002 – oblige the employers to “let the employees know the personal policy of preventing the labor accidents and professional illness which will be oriented exclusively towards the implementation of a management system of security and labor health”. (art.7). Also, it has been established that in a period of 10 years from coming into force of

Lazar LATU

2005-01-01

129

Flood Propagation in the Middle-Lower Reach of the River Po for Different Scenarios of Floodplain Management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The River Po is the longest Italian river, and the largest river in terms of streamflow. The middle-lower Po flows East some 350km in the Pianura Padana, a very important agricultural region and industrial heart of northern Italy. For this portion of the river, the riverbed consists of a stable main channel 200-500m wide and two lateral banks (the overall width varies from 200m to 5km) confined by two continuous artificial levees. The lateral banks are densely cultivated, and cultivations are protected against frequent flooding by a system of minor artificial levees. This sub-system of levees impacts significantly the hydraulic behaviour of the middle-lower Po during major flood events. This study utilizes a quasi-2D hydraulic numerical model. The model has been developed on the basis of laser-scanning DTM (resolution: 2m, topographic survey: 2005) and calibrated using the information available for the significant flood event of October 2000. The study aims at investigating the effects of the adoption of different floodplain management strategies (e.g., raising, lowering or removal of the sub-system of levees) on flood hazard along the river reach.

Castellarin, A.; di Baldassarre, G.; Brath, A.

2009-04-01

130

Using an ecosystem model linked to GCM-derived local weather scenarios to analyse effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on dry matter production and partitioning, and water use in temperate managed grasslands  

Microsoft Academic Search

Local effects of climate change (CC) and elevated CO2 (2 H CO2, 660 ?mol mol-1 )o n managed temperate grasslands were assessed by forcing a dynamic ecosystem model with weather scenarios. The aims of the study were to compare the relative importance of individual and combined effects of CC, 2 H CO2, and photosynthetic acclimation, and to assess the importance

MARCEL R IEDO; A NDREAS F ISCHLIN; JURG F UHRER

131

Environmental scenarios and requirements stability  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper recognizes the gap in research and practice that exists in addressing the evolution of E-Type systems that result from changes in the operating environment of the system over very long lifecycles. Through the fusion of a Goal Directed approach to requirements and the use of techniques drawn from Scenario Planning as used in the business community, this paper

David Bush; Anthony Finkelstein

2002-01-01

132

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during

L. B. Ballou; D. N. Montan; M. A. Revelli

1990-01-01

133

Abbreviated Scenario Thinking  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario development is a time- and resource-intensive process, one that not all companies are positioned to undertake at any given point in time. As such, this article will propose an Abbreviated Scenario Thinking process that uses published scenarios from government and industry sources to allow companies to make strategic decisions based on the results. Scenarios are narratives that describe the

Kathleen Wilburn; Ralph Wilburn

2011-01-01

134

Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015) for the upper Rhine valley  

Microsoft Academic Search

Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality man- agement. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole method- ology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The

J.-L. Ponche; J.-F. Vinuesa

2005-01-01

135

Note On Scenario Planning: An Abridged Version  

Microsoft Academic Search

This note describes one of the major long-range planning tools developed and used during the past three decades--scenario planning. Scenarios were developed as alternatives to single-line and range forecasts, because those techniques often proved to be ineffective and inaccurate tools for developing strategic plans, especially during times of economic turbulence. Scenarios present several plausible but contrasting futures, which forces managers

Charles Kennedy; Leslie Grayson; John Bristow

136

Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver  

SciTech Connect

This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.

Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab

2008-07-01

137

Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

2012-01-01

138

Scenario Planning as a Networking Process  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning implies the collective participation of a variety of people—experts, strategists, managers—organized in networks to create alternative representations of the future. As a networking process, scenario planning has a sensemaking function to challenge strategic paradigms of organizations and to rethink their internal and external borders. From a longitudinal case study, this article reviews the rise of future studies or

Fabrice Roubelat

2000-01-01

139

Management of childhood gastroenteritis in the community  

Microsoft Academic Search

Good evidence-based research exists for the management of gastroenteritis. However, we encountered local anecdotal evidence of wide variations in the management of gastroenteritis.In order to assess the prevailing practice in gastroenteritis management in primary care, in the Tees Health region, an anonymous questionnaire study involving general practitioners (GPs) and health visitors (HVs) was performed. Three case scenarios were presented in

S Rahman; OM Aszkenasy

2001-01-01

140

Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

141

Managing Patients' Wait Time in Specialist Out-patient Clinic Using Real-time Data from Existing Queue Management and ADT Systems.  

PubMed

In major cancer centers, heavy patients load and multiple registration stations could cause significant wait time, and can be result in patient complains. Real-time patient journey data and visual display are useful tools in hospital patient queue management. This paper demonstrates how we capture patient queue data without deploying any tracing devices; and how to convert data into useful patient journey information to understand where interventions are likely to be most effective. During our system development, remarkable effort has been spent on resolving data discrepancy and balancing between accuracy and system performances. A web-based dashboard to display real-time information and a framework for data analysis were also developed to facilitate our clinics' operation. Result shows our system could eliminate more than 95% of data capturing errors and has improved patient wait time data accuracy since it was deployed. PMID:23920725

Ju, John Chen; Gan, Soon Ann; Tan Siew Wee, Justine; Huang Yuchi, Peter; Mei Mei, Chan; Wong Mei Mei, Sharon; Fong, Kam Weng

2013-01-01

142

Example Exposure Scenarios.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The hum...

2004-01-01

143

Extended scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario analysis, as proposed by Rockafellar and Wets, is a stochastic programming technique employing discrete scenarios with known probabilities, usually covering several time periods. The requirement of nonaticipativity (not using future information to make present decisions) is enforced during the computational solution by using Spingarn's method of partial inverses. The scenario analysis method as proposed relies on separability (with respect

Stephen M. Robinson

1991-01-01

144

The Undoing of Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios with dramatic outcomes often evoke counterfactual thinking, mentally undoing that outcome by mutating events in the causal scenario and thereby allowing for the mental simulation of new outcomes. In Experiment 1, we manipulated the order of four events in a scenario. Each of these events could be mutated to alter the outcome, and each event was described as having

Gary L. Wells; Brian R. Taylor; John W. Turtle

1987-01-01

145

Optimal Generator Scheduling using Probabilistic Demand Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We have developed a new method to determine an optimal generator scheduling using probabilistic demand scenarios. The demand scenarios are created statistically as a set of load curves by the past demand data. Covariance matrix is used to reconstruct the distribution of the demand scenarios. Unit commitment calculation is executed for each demand scenario and the operation cost is estimated. Optimal generator scheduling is selected by the expected value of the unit price with including the additional cost to compensate the demand variation. The risk of the scenarios is also estimated to select the optimal generation scenario. The advantage of this method is that the optimum generator scheduling can be calculated in the present load dispatching system since the existing scheduling algorism can be easily adopted with a minimum modification.

Murakami, Yoshiki; Kobayashi, Takenori; Omata, Kazuya; Takahashi, Hirofumi; Kusano, Hideo

146

Research on Digitized Scenario for Tactical Internet Simulative Training  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The scenario of Tactical Internet simulative training can't be realized directly through the scenario systems and methods in existence. For solving this problem, firstly this paper introduced the new concept called digitized scenario, which can describe the meaning of scenario more exactly than the old simulation scenario. Secondly, this paper constructed the framework of digitized scenario, and it settled such issues as composition of digitized scenario system, scenario generating flow and data architecture. Thirdly, this paper built up the general data model for script situation, and it settled the problem of situation setting. Finally, this paper proposed the method of describing scenario files based on eXtensible Markup Language (XML), and it settled such problems as generation, verification and distribution of scenario files. The paper's work has been applied in the Tactical Internet simulative training system, and it also has good directive value to the developing of other communication network simulative training system.

Shen, Jian-Jun; Tian, Hua; Gan, Zhi-Chun

147

The holistic impact of integrated solid waste management on greenhouse gas emissions in Phuket  

Microsoft Academic Search

Continually increasing amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW) and the limited capacity of the existing waste management system in Phuket have led to the consideration of integrated waste management system (IWMS). Life cycle assessment (LCA) was employed to compare the greenhouse gas emissions expressed as global warming potential (GWP) of the existing waste management system (the base scenario) and other

Chalita Liamsanguan; Shabbir H. Gheewala

2008-01-01

148

Do existing research summaries on health systems match immunisation managers' needs in middle- and low-income countries? Analysis of GAVI health systems strengthening support  

PubMed Central

Background The GAVI Alliance was created in 2000 to increase access to vaccines. More recently, GAVI has supported evidence-based health systems strengthening to overcome barriers to vaccination. Our objectives were: to explore countries' priorities for health systems strengthening; to describe published research summaries for each priority area in relation to their number, quality and relevance; and to describe the use of national data from surveys in identifying barriers to immunisation. Methods From 44 health systems strengthening proposals submitted to GAVI in 2007 and 2008, we analysed the topics identified, the coverage of these topics by existing systematic reviews and the use of nation-wide surveys with vaccination data to justify the needs identified in the proposals. Results Thirty topics were identified and grouped into three thematic areas: health workforce (10 topics); organisation and management (14); and supply, distribution and maintenance (6). We found 51 potentially relevant systematic reviews, although for the topic that appeared most frequently in the proposals ('Health information systems') no review was identified. Thematic and geographic relevance were generally categorised as "high" in 33 (65%) and 25 (49%) reviews, respectively, but few reviews were categorised as "highly relevant for policy" (7 reviews, 14%). With regard to methodological quality, 14 reviews (27%) were categorised as "high". The number of topics that were addressed by at least one high quality systematic review was: seven of the 10 topics in the 'health workforce' thematic area; six of the 14 topics in the area of 'organisation and management'; and none of the topics in the thematic area of 'supply, distribution and maintenance'. Only twelve of the 39 countries with available national surveys referred to them in their proposals. Conclusion Relevant, high quality research summaries were found for few of the topics identified by managers. Few proposals used national surveys evidence to identify barriers to vaccination. Researchers generating or adapting evidence about health systems need to be more responsive to managers' needs. Use of available evidence from local or national surveys should be strongly encouraged.

2011-01-01

149

Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)-based scenarios for wind energy  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore a very new approach of creating scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM); specifically to create scenarios for wind energy deployment. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – In this paper a small exercise is conducted to illustrate the usefulness of FCM-based scenarios. Findings – Scenario-based planning is often used in technology management and scenarios are

Muhammad Amer; Antonie Jetter; Tugrul Daim

2011-01-01

150

A critical and comparative evaluation of approaches and policies to measure, benchmark, reduce and manage CO2 emissions from energy use in the existing building stock of developed and rapidly-developing countries - case studies of UK, USA, and India  

Microsoft Academic Search

The proposed paper answers the questions: What can be done to achieve significant reductions in CO2 emissions from the existing building stock of developed and rapidly-developing countries to reduce the worst impacts of climate change? How can we measure, benchmark, reduce and manage CO2 emissions from energy use in the existing building stock? What are the barriers in implementing appropriate

Rajat Gupta; Smita Chandiwala

151

EID Scenario I  

Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER)

Text Version“Exercise Only” Emerging Infection Scenario, Afternoon Session. FDA Workshop. ... “Exercise Only” Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak. ... More results from www.fda.gov/downloads/biologicsbloodvaccines/newsevents

152

The Towers Perrin Global Capital Market Scenario Generation System  

Microsoft Academic Search

Financial management requires a systematic approach for generating scenarios of future capital markets. Today's global environment demands that the scenarios link the economies of individual countries within a common framework. We describe a global scenario system, developed by Towers Perrin, based on a cascading set of stochastic differential equations. The system applies to financial systems for pension plans and insurance

John M. Mulvey; A. Eric Thorlacius

153

Piecing Together Competitive Intelligence using Scenarios in the Classroom  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes a scenario carried out in an intensive course in competitive intelligence and cyberwarfare. The scenario features two business organizations in tight competition and is designed to run over two days. The paper provides details of the scenario and discusses its application as part of a Master of Internet Security Management at Curtin University.

Helen Armstrong; John Davey

154

A Survey to Determine if Significant Differences Exist in the Scoring of Select Management Areas for Fast Food and Full Service Restaurant Managers by Two-Year Foodservice Management Students.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

A survey was conducted of students in 77 of the 144 two-year foodservice management programs in the United States to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward fast food restaurant management as compared to full service restaurant management. A total of 1,403 students from 44 programs responded. Results indicated that the food service…

Bloom, Thomas A.

155

A Survey to Determine if Significant Differences Exist in the Scoring of Select Management Areas for Fast Food and Full Service Restaurant Managers by Two-Year Foodservice Management Students.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|A survey was conducted of students in 77 of the 144 two-year foodservice management programs in the United States to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward fast food restaurant management as compared to full service restaurant management. A total of 1,403 students from 44 programs responded. Results indicated that the food service…

Bloom, Thomas A.

156

Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites  

SciTech Connect

Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Boice, D.C.

1986-04-01

157

Texas Energy Scenarios.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This report presents four scenarios of the future of energy in the state of Texas. The first case is a Baseline Scenario which projects the future as it might have appeared during the relatively stable period from 1967 to 1970. This is then compared with ...

R. D. Finch H. Hahn

1975-01-01

158

Mars Base Buildup Scenarios.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific inves...

J. D. Blacic

1986-01-01

159

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

160

Unified Power Management Framework for Portable Media Devices  

Microsoft Academic Search

Power management is one of the key design challenges in the design of portable multimedia devices (PMD). Existing power management techniques are limited to hardware based DVFS (dynamic schemes) and do not take into account application states and many usage scenarios. In this correspondence, a new unified power management framework (UPMF) is proposed which describes a software architecture for a

Ashwin Iyenggar; Ambudhar Tripathi; Ajit Basarur; Indranil Roy

2007-01-01

161

Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

2000-01-01

162

Managing Our Water Resources--An Assessment of the Existing Management and Financial Program for Water Quality Management in North Central Texas for Consistency with Section 208(c)(2) of P.L. 92-500.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

As part of the areawide water quality management planning program in the Dallas/Fort Worth region during 1977-78, an analysis is being made of the present management authorities of local governments and water districts in comparison to the requirements of...

1977-01-01

163

Mars base buildup scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

164

Enhancing business and technology foresight with electronically mediated scenario process  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The study discusses existing scenario methods in business and technology foresight and introduces electronically mediated scenario process in two varieties. The purpose of the study is to discuss the existing practice, position the IDEAS and SAGES methods, and outline their contribution to the state of the art. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The paper takes the form of a literature study

Kalle Piirainen; Antti Lindqvist

2010-01-01

165

Automated scenario generation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper will discuss automated scenario generation (Sgen) techniques to support the development of simulation scenarios. Current techniques for scenario generation are extremely labor intensive, often requiring manual adjustments to data from numerous sources to support increasingly complex simulations. Due to time constraints this process often prevents the simulation of a large numbers of data sets and the preferred level of "what if analysis". The simulation demands of future mission planning approaches, like Effects Based Operations (EBO), require the rapid development of simulation inputs and multiple simulation runs for those approaches to be effective. This paper will discuss an innovative approach to the automated creation of complete scenarios for mission planning simulation. We will discuss the results of our successful Phase I SBIR effort that validated our approach to scenario generation and refined how scenario generation technology can be directly applied to the types of problems facing EBO and mission planning. The current stovepipe architecture marries a scenario creation capability with each of the simulation tools. The EBO-Scenario generation toolset breaks that connection through an approach centered on a robust data model and the ability to tie mission-planning tools and data resources directly to an open Course Of Action (COA) analysis framework supporting a number of simulation tools. In this approach data sources are accessed through XML tools, proprietary DB structures or legacy tools using SQL and stored as an instance of Sgen Meta Data. The Sgen Meta Data can be mapped to a wide range of simulation tools using a Meta Data to simulation tools mapping editor that generates an XSLT template describing the required data translation. Once the mapping is created, Sgen will automatically convert the Meta Data instance, using XSLT, to the formats required by specific simulation tools. The research results presented in this paper will show how the complex demands of mission planning can be met with current simulation tools and technology.

Koziarz, Walter A.; Krause, Lee S.; Lehman, Lynn A.

2003-09-01

166

Strategic learning with scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions

Theo Postma

1997-01-01

167

Tree-Ring Based Climate Scenarios to Inform Decision Making in Water Resource Management: A Case Study From the Inland Empire, CA  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water agencies in California are concerned about meeting future demand under climate conditions that are potentially drier than today. Tree-rings can be used to reconstruct past climate which features droughts that were longer and more severe than any dry period during the 20th century for which instrumental data used by water managers are available. This research developed a new technique for modifying tree-ring based precipitation and temperature sequences that can be widely used in water management applications. A pilot study using this new method was done for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) in Southern California. This work employed Robust Decisionmaking to identify near-term management actions that may help mitigate future water shortages over a wide range of uncertainties related to climate, planning, and costs. The results of this work suggest that the current IEUA management plan is vulnerable to extended, high-magnitude droughts in the paleoclimate record as well as situations where management goals are not met. Increasing water banking, recycling, groundwater replenishment, and efficiency in the near-term could reduce the risk of unmet demand and shortage costs in the future.

Groves, D.; Tingstad, A.

2009-12-01

168

Scenarios and strategies: making the scenario about the business  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario development has traditionally been an outward looking process designed to enhance awareness of potential change in the external business environment. A set of techniques is presented here for bringing the business and its internal issues directly into the scenario development effort from the beginning. By casting strategies as scenarios, companies can gain many of the benefits of traditional scenario

David H. Mason; James Herman

2003-01-01

169

Modelling Scenarios To Assess The Effects Of Different Management And Land Use Options To Reduce Diffuse Nitrogen Pollution Into The Elbe River From Agricultural Used Land In The Federal State Of Brandenburg/germany  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A deterministic simulation model on nitrogen dynamics was used to calculate nitrogen losses from the root zone of agricultural used land. To analyse the present situation as well as different options to reduce the nitrogen losses, site specific crop rotations and management schemes were defined for different different levels of intensity derived from statistical data. Two farming systems were considered: a conventional farming system and an extensive farming system according to the rules of organic farming. Simulations were performed for arable land, pasture and set aside areas considering 5 differnent ground water levels. Model results were allocated to the river catchment using intersected GIS data for climate zones, main land use types from Corine land cover map, a mesoscale soil map, and a hydrological map. The scenarios address dif- ferent percentages of the different options as well as different allocations. Simulated losses were weighted according to the mapped travel time from the location into the river system.

Kersebaum, K. C.; Bauer, O.; Piorr, H.-P.; Steidl, J.

170

Security and trust in Cloud scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Nowadays Cloud computing has introduced a new paradigm in distributed services, enabling the provision of services or computational resources to remote entities with no need to have them in house. In this paper, we consider two real life scenarios; 1) risk management in work areas, and 2) the execution of scientific experiments in cooperation among various computation nodes. We investigate

Mariagrazia Fugini; George Hadjichristofi

2011-01-01

171

IPCC SCENARIO DATA  

EPA Science Inventory

This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...

172

Light Gluino Scenario.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

We investigate in detail the consequences of the supersymmetry scenario with a light (proportional 5 GeV) gluino and heavy (proportional 100 GeV) squarks, including gluino distribution and fragmentation effects, proposed to explain large missing psub(T) e...

V. Barger S. Jacobs J. Woodside K. Hagiwara

1985-01-01

173

Characterization of maritime scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meteorological modules were developed to describe characteristic maritime scenarios in various oceanic areas for DREV complimentarity studies of shipboard defense. The best means of depicting the maritime atmospheric environment was found to be on the basis of air mass analysis. A methodology was developed whereby, through a mixture of man-machine objective analysis of upper air radiosonde measurements at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels, typical airmasses could be identified. Characteristic scenarios were then defined based on physical considerations of air mass theory. Utilizing an extensive 10-year set of worldwide radiosonde, ozondesonde, and surface observations collected from a combination of land-based stations, oceanographic buoys, and weather ships, frequency and correlation statistics of various global and derived meteorological and oceanographic parameters were established for the CANLANT, NORLANT, WESTLANT, EASTLANT, IBERLANT, MARPAC regions, the ARCTIC OCEAN to 85 degree(s)N, the BALTIC SEA, MEDITERRANEAN SEA, PERSIAN GULF, RED SEA, GULF OF OMAN, and the INDIAN OCEAN. These descriptions included atmospheric profiles of pressure, temperature, dewpoint and relative humidity, wind speeds and direction, refractivity index, and ozone concentration from the surface to approximately 20 km., as well as associated surface visibility, clouds and weather, sea state, and duct height conditions. Many of the derived parameters were found to be a strong function of the defining airmass scenarios. The spatial distribution of these scenarios was also determined.

Low, Tom B.; Hudak, D. R.

1992-09-01

174

Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.  

PubMed

Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

2013-11-01

175

Scenario-based research on unconventional emergency decision-making  

Microsoft Academic Search

`Scenario-Response' has been regarded as a more effective emergency management model to unconventional emergency response. Started with the decision-making research for unconventional emergency, this paper analyzes the importance and relevance of scenario in the decision-making process for unconventional emergency. In accordance with this, the article demonstrates the whole decision-making process for unconventional emergency based on scenario and finally shows empirical

Liang Liu; Yongzhi Wei; Yan Shen; Xiaoming Wang

2010-01-01

176

Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

Laforcade, Pierre

2007-01-01

177

Scenarios and Analysis for Introducing IPv6 into ISP Networks  

Microsoft Academic Search

This document describes different scenarios for the introduction of IPv6 into an ISP's existing IPv4 network without disrupting the IPv4 service. The scenarios for introducing IPv6 are analyzed, and the relevance of already defined transition mechanisms are evaluated. Known challenges are also identified.

V. Ksinant; A. Baudot; P. Savola

178

Scenario-based 3D Objects Synthesizing System Design  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper proposes the framework of the scenario-based 3D image synthesizing system that allows common users who envision a scenario in their mind to realize it into the segments of cool animation. We focused on utilization of the existing motions to synthesize new motions for the objects. The framework is useful to build a 3D animation in game programming with

Ji-seung Nam; Hui Gao; Mi-young Kang; Kyoung-tae Kim; Seung-chul Son; Choung-ung Pom; Kwon Heo

2006-01-01

179

Decision-driven scenarios for assessing four levels of uncertainty  

Microsoft Academic Search

Some classes of scenario planning tools and techniques are designed to inform near-term strategic decisions. In addition, some of these are more appropriate for lower levels of uncertainty, while others are best suited for highly uncertain, truly ambiguous business environments. This paper provides a typology of scenario planning tools and techniques that enables managers to identify the best approach to

Hugh Courtney

2003-01-01

180

Portfolio design for investment companies through scenario planning  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – Scenario planning has significant applications in the field of strategic management and facilitating decision making under uncertainty, and hence this study aims to integrate scenario planning and the preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) method to propose a new methodology to design a portfolio. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The methodology has been designed in two stages, the first

Payam Hanafizadeh; Abolfazl Kazazi; Azam Jalili Bolhasani

2011-01-01

181

A SCENARIO GENERATION METHOD with HETEROSKEDASTICITY and MOMENT MATCHING  

Microsoft Academic Search

We present a portfolio management framework composed of a new scenario generation algorithm and a stochastic programming (SP) model. The algorithm is built on heteroskedastic models and moment matching approach to construct a scenario tree that is a calibrated representation of the randomness in risky asset returns. We also present a multi-stage SP model that maximizes the expected final wealth

Erhan Deniz; James T. Luxhøj

2011-01-01

182

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building  

SciTech Connect

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-07-09

183

EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL  

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

184

Alternative Scenarios Utilizing Nonterrestrial Resources.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever ...

C. H. Eldred B. B. Roberts

1992-01-01

185

Scenario-based requirements analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A method for scenario-based requirements engineering is described. The method uses two types of scenario: structure models\\u000a of the system context and scripts of system usage. A modelling language is reported for describing scenarios, and heuristics\\u000a are given to cross-check dependencies between scenario models and the requirements specification. Heuristics are grouped into\\u000a several analytic treatments that investigate correspondences between users’

Alistair Sutcliffe

1998-01-01

186

Fireshell versus Fireball scenarios  

SciTech Connect

We revisit Cavallo and Rees classification based on the analysis of initial conditions in electron-positron-photon plasma which appears suddenly around compact astrophysical objects and gives origin to GRBs. These initial conditions were recently studied in [1,2] by numerical integration of relativistic Boltzmann equations with collision integrals, including binary and triple interactions between particles. The main conclusion is that the pair plasma in GRB sources quickly reaches thermal equilibrium well before its expansion starts. In light of this work we comment on each of the four scenarios proposed by Cavallo and Rees and discuss their applicability to describe evolution of GRB sources.

De Barros, G.; Aksenov, A.; Bianco, C. L.; Ruffini, R. [Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome (Italy); Vereshchagin, G. [Piazzale delta Repubblica 10, 65100 Pescara (Italy)

2008-10-22

187

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.  

PubMed Central

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account.

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

188

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling  

Microsoft Academic Search

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a

Jeroen Keppens; Burkhard Schafer

2006-01-01

189

Exploring Existence Value  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The notion that individuals value the preservation of water resources independent of their own use of these resources is discussed. Issues in defining this value, termed "existence value," are explored. Economic models are employed to assess the role of existence value in benefit-cost analysis. The motives underlying existence value are shown to matter to contingent valuation measurement of existence benefits. A stylized contingent valuation experiment is used to study nonusers' attitudes regarding projects to improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Survey results indicate that altruism is one of the motives underlying existence value and that goods other than environmental and natural resources may provide existence benefits.

Madariaga, Bruce; McConnell, Kenneth E.

1987-05-01

190

Human & robotics technology space exploration communication scenarios: characteristics, challenges & scenarios for developing intelligent Internet protocols  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive view of current and future space communications systems, and scenarios in relation with intelligent Internet protocol (IIP). IIP is an innovative network layer protocol developed to meet the shortcomings of existing Internet protocol (IP) in an adverse space networking environment and provide future communication support for NASA space exploration activities. IIP distinguishes itself

Behnam Malakooti; Hyun Kim; Kul Bhasin

2006-01-01

191

Scenario-Based Tasks  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page from The Experiential Learning Center provides a number of scenario-based tasks for use in the classroom or for professional development training. The materials are freely available for download and use and would be applicable to learners in a variety of subjects including software development, faculty professional development, office system applications/ICT, biology/bioinformatics, environmental studies, Python programming, engineering, network security/MIS, computational thinking and English writing. Instructor guides and other classroom instructional materials are provided. The project requests that educators let them know when these materials are used in order to track dissemination of the work and in order to inform the community about upcoming workshops and presentations.

2012-10-09

192

Adding a Genomic Healthcare Component to a Health Information Management Curriculum  

PubMed Central

The inclusion of genomic information will become routine in electronic health records (EHRs). Educating health information management (HIM) students about how to best manage, protect, properly release, and use this information for patient care is of utmost importance. This study examined the usefulness of incorporating genomic modules into an existing course in quality management. Pretest and posttest results showed that students improved in all areas related to genomics in healthcare. Also, students enjoyed the class scenarios and discussion on the ethical use of genomic information. Interspersing genomic information management throughout an existing quality management class is an effective way to add this information to an existing HIM curriculum.

Ludwig, Bailee; Zhou, Leming; Watzlaf, Valerie; Abdelhak, Mervat

2010-01-01

193

Future waste treatment and energy systems - examples of joint scenarios.  

PubMed

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project. PMID:23932196

Münster, M; Finnveden, G; Wenzel, H

2013-08-08

194

Observing GRBs with EXIST  

SciTech Connect

We describe the Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey Telescope EXIST, designed to carry out a sensitive all-sky survey in the 10 keV - 600 keV band. The primary goal of EXIST is to find black holes in the local and distant universe. EXIST also traces cosmic star formation via gamma-ray bursts and gamma-ray lines from radioactive elements ejected by supernovae and novae.

Hartmann, D.H. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Clemson University, Clemson, SC (United States); Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.; Loeb, A. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Blandford, R. [Stanford Linear Accelerator, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Craig, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States); Fishman, J.; Kouveliotou, C. [NASA, Marshal Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL (United States); NSSTC, Huntsville, AL (United States); Gehrels, N.; Band, D. [NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Harrison, F. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Woosley, S.E. [Dept. of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)

2004-09-28

195

Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model  

PubMed Central

Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic). Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS) doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by the imagination of the trainers. Significant effort is made to put the participants into "the Zone" - the psychological mindset, where they believe they are in a realistic setting and treating a real patient, so that they gain the most from each teaching session. The method can be used for learning new skills, communication and leadership as well as maintaining existing skills. Conclusion The method described is a low technology, low cost alternative to high technology simulation which may provide a useful adjunct to delivering effective training when properly prepared and delivered. We find this useful for both induction and regular training of pre-hospital trauma care providers.

2010-01-01

196

Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS): development and application of computer modeling to selected National Planning Scenarios for high-consequence events.  

PubMed

Few tools exist that are sufficiently robust to allow manipulation of key input variables to produce casualty estimates resulting from high-consequence events reflecting local or specific regions of concern. This article describes the design and utility of a computerized modeling simulation tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS), developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. As a scalable, flexible tool, EMCAPS is intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels ranging from local health systems to regional and state public health departments to Metropolitan Medical Response System jurisdictions. Designed around the subset of the National Planning Scenarios with health effects, advanced by the US Department of Homeland Security, the tool's platform is supported by the detailed descriptions and readily retrievable evidence-based assumptions of each scenario. The EMCAPS program allows the user to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that would best reflect the region or locale of interest. Inputs include population density, vulnerabilities, event size, and potency, as applicable. Using these inputs, EMCAPS generates the anticipated population-based health surge influence of the hazard scenario. Casualty estimates are stratified by injury severity/types where appropriate. Outputs are graph and table tabulations of surge estimates. The data can then be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems. EMCAPS may be downloaded without cost from http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/EMCAPS/EMCAPS.html as shareware. PMID:18986730

Scheulen, James J; Thanner, Meridith H; Hsu, Edbert B; Latimer, Christian K; Brown, Jeffrey; Kelen, Gabor D

2008-11-04

197

Preparing for change: strategic foresight scenarios.  

PubMed

Most people need stimulus to move from worrying about current problems to planning for the future. A carefully crafted strategic foresight scenario (SFS) can provide that stimulus. Recently, Allen Memorial Hospital, a 240-bed facility in Waterloo, Iowa, set up a management development team to help prepare hospital staff for changes that were expected to result from a reengineering study. One of the techniques they chose was to create an SFS. Strategic foresight exercises are often used at the highest management levels of corporations to prepare for strategic planning. At Allen, the exercise was prepared for use at all levels of staff to prepare for imminent change. A good scenario can stimulate foresight; it can show how relevant driving forces may affect not only the industry but also your individual health system. It identifies specific forces affecting healthcare delivery systems, tests assumptions for the future, assesses alternative and plausible futures and can form a springboard for future planning. A group of six employees considered factors that would affect healthcare delivery in 2005, drew on their creative energies and wrote a scenario (which is included in the article). The scenario is carefully written and follows a story line that is personal and specific to Allen. When presented to a group of senior managers, it was received with great interest and prompted discussion that ran beyond the designated meeting time. The SFS exercise successfully prepared staff at Allen for change, not by predicting the future but by modeling and inspiring an open-mindedness and active approach to the future. PMID:10157201

Nielsen, G A

198

Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.  

SciTech Connect

In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

Darby, John L.

2007-03-01

199

Making use: scenarios and scenario-based design  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of human-computer interaction help us to understand and to create computer systems and applications as artifacts of human activity of human activity as things to learn from, as tools to use in ones work, as media for interacting with other people. Scenario-based design offers significant and unique leverage on some of the most characteristic and vexing challenges of design

John M. Carroll

2000-01-01

200

The Influence of Climate Science on Water Management in Western Australia: Lessons for Climate Scientists  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water flow into dams that supply Perth in Western Australia (WA) has fallen by 50% since the mid-1970s, and this has severely tested water managers. Climate change scenarios available since the 1980s have suggested that global warming will reduce rainfall over southern Australia, including Perth. Water managers recognize the uncertainties associated with the projections, including the significant differences that exist

Scott Power; Brian Sadler; Neville Nicholls

2005-01-01

201

The changing nutrition scenario.  

PubMed

The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

Gopalan, C

2013-09-01

202

Futures Scenario in Science Learning  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

203

Scenarios for future service encounters  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article develops research-based scenarios of future service encounters. Views from senior customer service directors in 14 major service companies regarding future service encounters and future roles and capabilities of customer service professionals were gathered. This was considered in the light of secondary data regarding technology and socio-economic projections. Short scenarios of future service encounters around key dimensions of technology,

Julia Kiely; Neal Beamish; Colin Armistead

2004-01-01

204

Mobile Social Media Service Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Mobile social media services are in a technology selection stage with no clear dominant design. Experimentation is very common, and many service concepts are failing to find a valid business model. We have studied current mobile social media services and categorized them into four distinct scenarios. One of the scenarios does not have any current commercial services, which is seen

O. Makinen; S. Luukkainen

2009-01-01

205

Formal Approach to Scenario Analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios offer promise as a way to tame requirements analysis, but progress has been impeded by the lack of a systematic way to analyze, generate, and validate them. The authors propose such a method and apply it to a simple PBX system. Their method has a formal mathematical base, generates precise scenarios, accommodates change, and keeps users involved in the

Pei Hsia; Jayarajan Samuel; Jerry Gao; David Chenho Kung; Yasufumi Toyoshima; Cris Chen

1994-01-01

206

30 CFR 550.304 - Existing facilities.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...550.304 Section 550.304 Mineral Resources BUREAU OF OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE...AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Pollution Prevention and Control § 550.304 Existing...

2013-07-01

207

Managing existing populations of alien species  

Microsoft Academic Search

Alien Invaders in Canada’s Waters, Wetlands, and Forests provides information on the global impact of alien species across Canadian landscapes. Alien invasive species are recognized as a major global threat to biodiversity. The problems are exacerbated by the globalization of trade and the inability of current inspection and quarantine regimes to cope with an increasing demand. It is a collection

Daniel Simberloff

2002-01-01

208

Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the Great Lakes simulation model was computationally demanding, the model pre-emption strategy was also utilized in conjunction with DDS to reduce the computational burden. The system with the existing two control structures managed by the current regulation plans was considered as a baseline (base case) of assessment. Simulation results demonstrate that the regulation plans developed can substantially reduce the frequency of extreme water levels and reduce the magnitude of extreme violations in multiple extreme water supply scenarios across the system relative to the base case regulation strategy. The regulation plan was also shown to be robust against other unseen extreme future climate scenarios. Moreover, the system simulation results under various future climate scenarios suggest that even the system controlled by four structures might be unable to fully mitigate the negative impacts associated with extreme water levels.

Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

2011-12-01

209

Exploring how to use scenarios to discover requirements  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper investigates the effectiveness of different uses of scenarios on requirements discovery using results from requirements\\u000a processes in two projects. The first specified requirements on a new aircraft management system at a regional UK airport to\\u000a reduce its environmental impact. The second specified new work-based learning tools to be adopted by a consortium of organizations.\\u000a In both projects scenarios

Norbert Seyff; Neil A. M. Maiden; Inger Kristine Karlsen; James Lockerbie; Paul Grünbacher; Florian Graf; Cornelius Ncube

2009-01-01

210

Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.  

PubMed

Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

Eason, Martin P

2013-01-01

211

ON THE SEISMIC VULNERABILITY OF EXISTING UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGS  

Microsoft Academic Search

A large part of the building population in Switzerland is made of unreinforced masonry. For the assessment of the seismic risk the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry buildings is therefore crucial. In this paper a method to evaluate existing buildings, which was developed for the earthquake scenario project for Switzerland, is briefly introduced and discussed in

K. LANG; H. BACHMANN

2003-01-01

212

MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission is currently in phase B and the launch is planned for 2011.

Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

2008-08-01

213

The Practices of Scenario Study to Home Scenario Control  

Microsoft Academic Search

Home is where human living in, and can be relaxed and entertained. Scenario control is a man-machine system integrate audio\\/video\\u000a equipment, light, curtain, air conditioner by using wireless LAN technology, defines common using scenarios, makes user interactive\\u000a with product, handle all equipment quickly, enjoy smart home lifestyle. This research using the method of practice design,\\u000a verifies how user-oriented design (UOD)

Yung Hsing Hu; Yuan Tsing Huang; You Zhao Liang; Wen Ko Chiou

2007-01-01

214

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

215

Does Unconscious Racism Exist?  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|This essay argues for the existence of a form of unconscious racism. Research on implicit prejudice provides good evidence that most persons have deeply held negative associations with minority groups that can lead to subtle discrimination without conscious awareness. The evidence for implicit attitudes is briefly reviewed. Criticisms of the…

Quillian, Lincoln

2008-01-01

216

Do maxicharged particles exist.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The critical charge Z(sub c) is estimated for elementary particles using a Newton-Wigner position operator inspired model. Particles with Z(approx)Z(sub c) (maxicharged particles), if they exist at all, can have unusual properties which turn them into ill...

N. V. Makhaldiani Z. K. Silagadze

1995-01-01

217

Do Maxicharged Particles Exist?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The critical charge Zc is estimated for elementary particles using a Newton-Wigner position operator-inspired model. Particles with Z ~ Zc (maxicharged particles), if they exist at all, can have unusual properties which make them illusive objects, that are not easy to detect. Dirac's magnetic poles have a (magnetic) charge g » Zc. This gives one more argument that it is

N. V. Makhaldiani; Z. K. Silagadze

1999-01-01

218

Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends  

Microsoft Academic Search

An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970–2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future

S. P. Seitzinger; E. Mayorga; A. F. Bouwman; C. Kroeze; A. H. W. Beusen; G. Billen; G. Van Drecht; E. L. Dumont; B. M. Fekete; J. Garnier; J. A. Harrison

2010-01-01

219

Scenario Analysis Via Bundle Decomposition.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

In this paper, we show how the bundle decomposition method can be applied to linear or convex scenario analysis problems that are loosely coupled. We illustrate its effectiveness by presenting computational results for military force planning problems and...

B. J. Chun S. M. Robinson

1995-01-01

220

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

2009-04-01

221

Do Maxicharged particles exist?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The critical charge $Z_c$ is estimated for elementary particles using a Newton-Wigner position operator inspired model. Particles with $Z \\\\sim Z_c$ (maxicharged particles), if they exist at all, can have unusual properties which turn them into elusive objects not easy to detect. Dirac's magnetic poles have a (magnetic) charge $g\\\\gg Z_c$. This gives one more argument that it is unexpected

N. V. Makhaldiani; Z. K. Silagadze

1995-01-01

222

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

None

1999-09-01

223

Scenario-based impact analysis of disaster risks exploring potential implications for disaster prevention strategies in spatial and urban planning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The project deals with scenario techniques to assess, estimate, and communicate the potential consequences of natural disasters on risk governance arrangements. It aims to create a methodology which allows the development of disaster scenarios for different types of natural hazards. This enables relevant stakeholders to derive planning strategies to prevent harmful damage to the community through adequate adaptation. Some main questions in the project are: - How do changing boundary conditions in economic, social and ecological systems influence the significance and the benefit of existent risk analysis as a basis for spatial planning decisions? - Which factors represent or influence the forecast uncertainty of existent extrapolations within the scope of risk analysis? Which of these uncertainties have spatial relevance? (Which go beyond sectoral considerations of risk? Which refer to reservations concerning spatial development? Which influence a community as a whole?) - How can we quantify these uncertainties? Do they change according to altered hazards or vulnerabilities? - How does the explored risk vary, once quantified uncertainties are integrated into current extrapolations? What are the implications for spatial planning activities? - Which software application is suitable to visualize and communicate the scenario methodology? The work is mainly based on existing results of previous hazard analysis and vulnerability studies which have been carried out by the Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) for the federal state of Baden-Württemberg. Existing data concern the risk of damages on residential buildings, industrial and traffic infrastructure, social and economic vulnerability. We will link this data with various assumptions of potentially changing economic, social and built environments and visualize those using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Although the scenario methodology is conceived as a multi-hazard oriented and transferable instrument, it may be helpful to demonstrate the methodology for one hazard (e.g. flooding hazards) and with special local conditions in Baden-Württemberg.

Lüke, J.; Wenzel, F.; Vogt, J.

2009-04-01

224

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

225

Do Baby Crystals Exist?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contrary to the conventional understanding that atomic clusters usually differ in properties and structure from the bulk constituents of which they are comprised, we show that a small cluster containing only four tungsten and twelve oxygen atoms bears all the hallmarks of crystalline tungsten oxide, WO_3. This observation based on a synergistic approach involving mass distributions under quasi-steady state conditions, photo-electron spectroscopy, and first principles molecular orbital theory illustrates the existence of a class of strongly covalent or ionic materials whose embryonic forms are tiny clusters. It also lends the possibility that a fundamental understanding of complex processes such as catalytic reactions on surfaces may be achieved on an atomic scale with these baby crystals as model systems.

Gantefãr, G.; Stolcic, D.; Sun, Q.; Rao, B. K.; Jena, P.; Castleman, J. R.

2003-03-01

226

An Application of Narrowing the Information Gap Between Data Providers and Decision Makers Through a Disaster Response Scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A scenario-based distributed information system for operationally building the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) is presented as part of Northrop Grumman's participation in the GEOSS ten- year Architecture Implementation Pilot plan. Northrop Grumman is responding to the application challenge of implementing GEOSS capabilities by adding several U.S. Global Earth Observing (USGEO) data providers through architecture development and multiple scenario demonstrations, one of which is Natural Disaster Response. The scenarios ensure responders collaborate with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Societal Benefit Area working groups and external agencies. A six-stage disaster cycle is executed for a major hurricane and flooding scenario on the Port of Houston that incorporates multiple user communities and demonstrates how communities of practice may be applied to extend information sharing in response to disasters. The scenario is user driven and uses products derived from existing earth observing systems. The enterprise model for this hurricane and flooding scenario depicts an end-to-end approach to executing disaster response management. The centrality of the community portal in creating a coordinated disaster response cannot be overstated. Northrop Grumman has reached interoperability agreements with multiple community data providers whose goal is to make their data and products accessible as "persistent exemplars" within GEOSS to global users and decision makers. As multiple GEO community members integrate their data and services into GEOSS, the whole of GEOSS becomes much more than the sum of its components; however, GEOSS must deliver high-value information easily understood by decision makers through smart source selection. When this occurs, and GEOSS becomes operational, the information gap will narrow between systems, providers, analysts, and decision makers.

Lowther, R. P.; Brill, M.

2008-12-01

227

Façade Segmentation in a Multi-view Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

We examine a new method of façade segmentation in a multi-view scenario. A set of overlapping, thus redundant street-side images exists and each image shows multiple buildings. A semantic segmentation identifies primary areas in the image such as sky, ground, vegetation, and façade. Subsequently, repeated patterns are detected in image segments previous labeled as \\

Michal Recky; Andreas Wendel; Franz Leberl

2011-01-01

228

Evidence Directed Generation of Plausible Crime Scenarios with Identity Resolution  

Microsoft Academic Search

Given a set of collected evidence and a predefined knowledge base, some existing knowledge-based approaches have the capability of synthesizing plausible crime scenarios under restrictive conditions. However, significant challenges arise for problems where the degree of precision of available intelligence data can vary greatly, often involving vague and uncertain information. Also, the issue of identity disambiguation gives rise to another

Xin Fu; Tossapon Boongoen; Qiang Shen

2010-01-01

229

Evaluating Different Growth Scenarios for Organic Farming Using Bayesian Techniques  

Microsoft Academic Search

Different views exist on the future development of organic agriculture. The Dutch government believes that in 2010 10% of the farm land will be used for organic farming. Others have a more radical view: due to increasing emphasis on sustainable production in the end all farming will be organic. Others believe in a more pessimistic scenario in which the recent

Cornelis Gardebroek

2008-01-01

230

Autophagic cell death exists  

PubMed Central

The term autophagic cell death (ACD) initially referred to cell death with greatly enhanced autophagy, but is increasingly used to imply a death-mediating role of autophagy, as shown by a protective effect of autophagy inhibition. In addition, many authors require that autophagic cell death must not involve apoptosis or necrosis. Adopting these new and restrictive criteria, and emphasizing their own failure to protect human osteosarcoma cells by autophagy inhibition, the authors of a recent Editor’s Corner article in this journal argued for the extreme rarity or nonexistence of autophagic cell death. We here maintain that, even with the more stringent recent criteria, autophagic cell death exists in several situations, some of which were ignored by the Editor’s Corner authors. We reject their additional criterion that the autophagy in ACD must be the agent of ultimate cell dismantlement. And we argue that rapidly dividing mammalian cells such as cancer cells are not the most likely situation for finding pure ACD.

Clarke, Peter G.H.; Puyal, Julien

2012-01-01

231

A Novel Approach of Prioritizing Use Case Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Modern softwares are very large and complex. As the size and complexity of software increases, software developers feel an urgent need for a better management of different activities during the course of software development. In this paper, we present an approach of use case scenario prioritization suitable for project planning at an early phase of the software development. We consider

Debasish Kundu; Debasis Samanta

2007-01-01

232

Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Low earth orbit constellations significantly increase the burden for ground-based systems management. Efficient, accurate management requires that ground station and satellite operators are well-trained. Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method for both training and certification. Effectiveness is

John L. Mohammed; James C. Ong; Jian Li

2005-01-01

233

[Pre-existing diabetes and pregnancy].  

PubMed

The prevalence of pre-existing diabetes associated with pregnancy is 0.5 to 1%. A third are type 1 diabetes, two-thirds are type 2 diabetes, whose prevalence is increasing due to rising obesity. The improved prognosis of pregnancies in women with pre-existing diabetes relies on preconception programming (therefore an effective contraception), multidisciplinary collaboration and appropriate management of these pregnancies. PMID:23236859

Lepercq, Jacques

2012-09-01

234

Consumer strategies for the internet: four scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article outlines a scenario planning process for building successful World Wide Web related businesses. In addition to outlining five tips for Internet content providers, the article describes four alternative scenarios for the future of the Internet and identifies the 16 most relevant drivers of those scenarios. The scenarios—written as though it is the year 2000—describe alternative views of how

Doug Randall

1997-01-01

235

Scenario-Based Requirement Analysis 1  

Microsoft Academic Search

A method for scenario based requirements engineering is described. T he method uses two types of scenario, structure models of the system context and s cripts of system usage. A modelling language is reported for describing scenarios, a nd heuristics are given to cross check dependencies between scenario models and the require ments specification. Heuristics are grouped into several analytic

Alistair Sutcliffe

1998-01-01

236

Scenario Analysis: Applications and Extensions.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The primary aim of this work was to enhance the method of scenario analysis for decision-making under uncertainty. An effect of such enhancement could be to help the Army make better decisions in situations involving resource allocation under uncertainty,...

S. M. Robinson

1993-01-01

237

Hydroclimate Scenarios of Amazon Deforestation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The regional and global implications of the replacement of natural forest by degraded vegetation in the Amazon on the regional and global hydroclimate have yet to be fully understood and quantified. In this study, regional and global climate models are used in conjunction with scenarios of land-cover change resulting from socio-economic and ecological analyses for the coming decades, to estimate potential hydroclimate changes in and outside of the Amazon basin. Four ensembles of six realizations, twelve years each, are produced with the NASA-GISS GCM II: (1) a "control" ensemble that simulates the land cover in the Amazon basin before massive deforestation started; (2) a "current land cover" ensemble; (3) a "scenario for 2030" ensemble; and (4) a "scenario for 2050" ensemble. In addition, The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used at a high resolution (20 km grid size) over the Amazon Basin and using the same four land-cover scenarios but with the NCEP reanalysis for three different years (wet, dry, and typical) forcing its lateral boundaries. The combination of these different simulations reveals significant impact of deforestation on the regional and global hydroclimate.

Avissar, R.; Ramos da Silva, R.; Werth, D.

2004-12-01

238

Inflationary dynamics in the braneworld scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We analyze the attractor behaviour of the inflation field in braneworld scenarios using the Hamilton—Jacobi formalism, where the Friedmann equation has the form of or H2 = ?+in?2/2?, with in = ±1. We find that in all models the linear homogeneous perturbation can decay exponentially as the scalar field rolls down its potential. However, in the case of a -?2 correction to the standard cosmology with ? < ?, the existence of an attractor solution requires (? - ?)/varphi2 > 1. Our results show that the perturbation decays more quickly in models with positive-energy correction than in the standard cosmology, which is opposite to the case of negative-energy correction. Thus, the positive-energy modification rather than the negative one can assist the inflation and widen the range of initial conditions.

Zhang, Kai-Yuan; Wu, Pu-Xun; Yu, Hong-Wei

2013-05-01

239

Community Based Rehabilitation for the Disabled Elderly: A Report on existing Indian Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

The National Population Commission in India has estimated that the population of the elderly (age 60years and above) is expected to grow from 71 million in 2001 to 173 million by 2026.This appears to be a very precarious condition for the older population in India and reflects the growing prevalence and the unique burden it places on caregivers of the

Alokananda Banerjee

240

A Native American exposure scenario.  

PubMed

EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

Harris, S G; Harper, B L

1997-12-01

241

Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

If hydrogen (H2) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be\\u000a produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways H2 can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several H2 scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In

Carmen Difiglio; Dolf Gielen

2007-01-01

242

Assessing the European wastewater reclamation and reuse potential — a scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A model-based estimation of the wastewater reclamation and reuse potential in a European context is presented, and the effects of different water management scenarios on the appraisal are quantified. The impact of climate change on water availability and variation in the demand pattern and water use of considered countries is the modifying variable in these scenarios. The simulation demonstrates that

Rita Hochstrat; Thomas Wintgens; Thomas Melin; Paul Jeffrey

2006-01-01

243

Scenario Analysis Tool Suite: A User's Guide.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This document is a user guide for the software product, the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite (version 1.5). The tool suite implements several scenario analysis techniques, Morphological analysis, Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis, Battelle approach, Bayesian ...

C. Dilek

2009-01-01

244

Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.

Dengler, L.

2006-12-01

245

Supply chain network scenario design and evaluation  

Microsoft Academic Search

A supply chain can involve different scenarios with different products, co-ordination structures, production strategies and locations. Enterprises need to model supply chain scenario complexities and evaluate the performance of scenarios before implementing them. This paper reviews the research in inter-firm network, organisation co-ordination structure and performance measurement, and proposes a new method for designing supply chain scenario by considering multiple

Zhengping Li; Arun Kumar

2005-01-01

246

Visualizing inter-dependencies between scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

One of the main challenges in understanding a scenario- based speciflcation of a reactive system is rooted in the inter-dependencies between the scenarios. These are inher- ently implicit in the very idea of scenario-based program- ming. We introduce a graph-based visualization of such inter-dependencies, and implement it in a tool we call SIV (for Scenario Inter-dependency Visualization), which sup- plies

David Harel; Itai Segall

2008-01-01

247

The minimal scenario of leptogenesis  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

2012-12-01

248

Software performance models from system scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The earliest definition of a software system may be in the form of Use Cases, which may be elaborated as scenarios. In this work, performance models are created from scenarios, to permit the earliest possible analysis of potential performance issues. Suitable forms of scenario models include Unified Modeling Language (UML) Activity or Sequence Diagrams (SD), and Use Case Maps (UCM)

Dorin Bogdan Petriu; C. Murray Woodside

2005-01-01

249

Enhancing a Requirements Baseline with Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios are well reconized as an important strat-egy towards understanding the interface between theenvironment and the system as well as a means toelicit and specify software behavior. We have a broaderunderstanding of scenarios. For us a scenario is anevolving description of situations in the environment.Our proposal is framed by Leite's work on a client orientedrequirements baseline, which aims to model

Julio Cesar Sampaio Do Prado Leite; Gustavo Rossi; Federico Balaguer; Vanesa Maiorana; Gladys N. Kaplan; Graciela D. S. Hadad; Alejandro Oliveros

1997-01-01

250

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS  

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

251

Extranets: Future Trends and Scenarios.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|The extranet--use of the Internet by a corporation's employees and extranet partners for safe communication, collaboration, and commerce--presents the opportunity for true, value-added services on the part network managers. Those that outsource the physical infrastructure management to service providers will have a head start on other networking…

Pincince, Thomas

1998-01-01

252

Ischemic preconditioning and clinical scenarios  

PubMed Central

Purpose of review Ischemic preconditioning (IPC) is gaining attention as a novel neuroprotective therapy and could provide an improved mechanistic understanding of tolerance to cerebral ischemia. The purpose of this article is to review the recent work in the field of IPC and its applications to clinical scenarios. Recent findings The cellular signaling pathways that are activated following IPC are now better understood and have enabled investigators to identify several IPC mimetics. Most of these studies were performed in rodents, and efficacy of these mimetics remains to be evaluated in human patients. Additionally, remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC) may have higher translational value than IPC. Repeated cycles of temporary ischemia in a remote organ can activate protective pathways in the target organ, including the heart and brain. Clinical trials are underway to test the efficacy of RIPC in protecting brain against subarachnoid hemorrhage. Summary IPC, RIPC, and IPC mimetics have the potential to be therapeutic in various clinical scenarios. Further understanding of IPC-induced neuroprotection pathways and utilization of clinically relevant animal models are necessary to increase the translational potential of IPC in the near future.

Narayanan, Srinivasan V.; Dave, Kunjan R.; Perez-Pinzon, Miguel A.

2013-01-01

253

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.  

PubMed Central

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication.

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

254

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.  

PubMed

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

255

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs  

SciTech Connect

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-09-19

256

Evaluation of introduction scenarios for a broadband access network  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The provision of broadband services at a reasonable cost to residential and small business customers is one of the major challenges facing operators. The introduction of cost-effective systems considering the existing infrastructure is an important study. Within the RACE project 2024 Broadband Access Facilities, the economic and evolution aspects of different introduction scenarios of a broadband access system suitable for providing these services are investigated. This paper presents the final results of this study.

Bocker, Geert-Jan; Cuthbert, Laurie; Gobbi, Roberta; Inch, Robert; Sara, Lini

1995-02-01

257

Generation of 100-year geomagnetically induced current scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A series of 100-year extreme geoelectric field and geomagnetically induced current (GIC) scenarios are explored by taking into account the key geophysical factors associated with the geomagnetic induction process. More specifically, we derive explicit geoelectric field temporal profiles as a function of ground conductivity structures and geomagnetic latitudes. We also demonstrate how the extreme geoelectric field scenarios can be mapped into GIC. Generated statistics indicate 20 V/km and 5 V/km 100-year maximum 10-s geoelectric field amplitudes at high-latitude locations with poorly conducting and well-conducting ground structures, respectively. We show that there is an indication that geoelectric field magnitudes may experience a dramatic drop across a boundary at about 40°-60° of geomagnetic latitude. We identify this as a threshold at about 50° of geomagnetic latitude. The sub-threshold geoelectric field magnitudes are about an order of magnitude smaller than those at super-threshold geomagnetic latitudes. Further analyses are required to confirm the existence and location of the possible latitude threshold. The computed extreme GIC scenarios can be used in further engineering analyses that are needed to quantify the geomagnetic storm impact on conductor systems such as high-voltage power transmission systems. To facilitate further work on the topic, the digital data for generated geoelectric field scenarios are made publicly available.

Pulkkinen, A.; Bernabeu, E.; Eichner, J.; Beggan, C.; Thomson, A. W. P.

2012-04-01

258

Taft Prison Facility: Cost Scenarios.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

On July 21, 1997, the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) announced that Wackenhut Corrections would be awarded the contract to manage a new Federal facility. Located in Taft, California, the new facility had been designed and built by the Federal government ...

J. Nelson

1999-01-01

259

Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?  

SciTech Connect

Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the standard model gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate the possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

Kanemura, Shinya; Nabeshima, Takehiro [Department of Physics, University of Toyama, Toyama 930-8555 (Japan); Matsumoto, Shigeki; Okada, Nobuchika [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487 (United States)

2010-09-01

260

Financial scenario generation for stochastic multi-stage decision processes as facility location problems  

Microsoft Academic Search

The quality of multi-stage stochastic optimization models as they appear in asset liability management, energy planning, transportation, supply chain management, and other applications depends heavily on the quality of the underlying scenario model, describing the uncertain processes influencing the profit\\/cost function, such as asset prices and liabilities, the energy demand process, demand for transportation, and the like. A common approach

Ronald Hochreiter; Georg Ch. Pflug

2007-01-01

261

Coordinating Mobile Actors in Pervasive and Mobile Scenarios: An AI-Based Approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

Process Management Systems (PMSs) can be used not only in classical business scenarios, but also in highly dy- namic and uncertain environments, for example, in sup- porting operators during Emergency Management for co- ordinating their activities. In such challenging situatio ns, processes should be adapted in order to cope with anoma- lous situations, including connection anomalies and task faults. This

Massimiliano De Leoni; Andrea Marrella; Massimo Mecella; Stefano Valentini; Sebastian Sardiña

2008-01-01

262

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

263

Testing SN IA progenitor scenarios: SNR 1006  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

For Type Ia supernovae several progenitor scenarios have been proposed: 1) Roche lobe overflow from main sequence stars onto white dwarfs, 2) Roche lobe overflow from subgiants onto white dwarfs, 3) Wind accretion from a giant companion 4) Merging white dwarf pairs. So far, none of these scenarios have been clearly demonstrated to occur in nature, and only for scenario 1 we know potential observed counterparts, the supersoft X-ray sources. We have computed detailed evolutionary model grids for scenarios 1 and 2, and relied on literature data for scenario 3, in order to determine the properties of the white dwarf companion star at the time of the supernova explosion. E.g., we found that the companions in scenario 1 stem from 1.7 dots 2.3 M_odot main sequence stars and are underluminous stars of more than 1 M_odot, out of thermal equilibrium, with luminosities in the range 1 dots 10 L_odot, devoid of Li, Be, and B, and partly enriched in carbon. Scenarios 2 and 3 are found to leave low mass O or B subdwarfs. From Scenarios 1 and 2, we expect large space velocities for the companions after the white dwarf explosion (100 dots 1000 km/s). The remnant of the historical Type Ia supernova SN 1006 is close enough to unambiguously identify the former companion star of the white dwarf and, according to its properties, distinguish between scenarios 1, 2 and 3. We propose a detailed observational strategy to find the companion star. The sdO star near the center of SN 1006 has already been investigated in part. A failure of finding any suitable star in SNR 1006 would support scenario 4. In any case, a distinctive test of Type Ia supernova progenitor scenarios appears to be possible with SNR 1006.

Wellstein, S.; Langer, N.; Gehren, T.; Burleigh, M.; Heber, U.

264

Existence and Detection of Fireballs.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

An attempt is made to analyze critically the experimental proofs indicating the existence of fireballs. Some ideas are presented on methods of the search for fireballs understood as resonances with a large mass. It is conceived that the supposed experimen...

E. I. Daibog I. L. Rozental

1971-01-01

265

The development of evidence-based clinical simulation scenarios: guidelines for nurse educators.  

PubMed

Clinical simulation has been recognized as a teaching method using learning exercises that closely mimic real-life situations. The development of evidence-based clinical simulation scenarios and guidelines for nurses is an important step in redesigning nursing education. These scenarios are created for students to learn in a safe environment. Simulated clinical experience requires immersing students in a representative patient-care scenario, a setting that mimics the actual environment with sufficient realism to allow learners to suspend disbelief. The purpose of this article is to discuss the Bay Area Simulation Collaborative's development of guidelines for effective evidence-based scenarios for use in hospitals and nursing schools. Six scholarly articles were reviewed and evaluated to determine whether evidence-based guidelines for scenario development exist and whether consensus in the literature regarding best practice is evident. PMID:19810672

Waxman, K T

2010-01-04

266

Biosolids - a fuel or a waste? An integrated appraisal of five co-combustion scenarios with policy analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

An integrated appraisal of five technology scenarios for the co-combustion of biosolids in the UK energy and waste management policy context is presented. Co-combustion scenarios with coal, municipal solid waste, wood, and for cement manufacture were subject to thermodynamic and materials flow modeling and evaluated by 19 stakeholder representatives. All scenarios provided a net energy gain (0.58-5.0 kWh\\/kg dry solids),

Elise Cartmell; Peter Gostelow; Drusilla Riddell-Black; Nigel Simms; John Oakey; Joe Morris; Paul Jeffrey; Peter Howsam; Simon J. Pollard

2006-01-01

267

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

268

Soil erosion risk scenarios in the Mediterranean environment using RUSLE and GIS: An application model for Calabria (southern Italy)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soil erosion by water (WSE) has become a relevant issue at the Mediterranean level. In particular, natural conditions and human impact have made the Calabria (southern Italy) particularly prone to intense WSE. The purpose of this investigation is to identify areas highly affected by WSE in Calabria by comparing the scenarios obtained by assuming control and preventive measures and actions, as well as actual conditions generated by forest fires, also in the presence of conditions of maximum rainfall erosion. Geographic Information System techniques have been adopted to treat data of reasonable spatial resolution obtained at a regional scale for application to the RUSLE model. This work is based on the comparison of such data with a basic scenario that has been defined by the present situation (present scenario). In this scenario: (i) R has been assessed by means of an experimental relation adjusted to Calabria on the basis of 5-min observations; (ii) K has been drawn from the soil map of Calabria including 160 soilscapes; (iii) LS has been estimated according to the RUSLE2 model by using (among other subfactors) a 40-m square cell DTM; (iv) C has been derived by processing the data inferred from the project Corine Land Cover, whose legend includes 35 different land uses on three levels; and (v) P has been hypothesized as equal to 1. For the remaining three hypothesized scenarios, the RUSLE factors have been adjusted according to experimental data and to data in the literature. In particular, forest areas subject to fire have been randomly generated as far as fire location, extension, structure, and intensity are concerned. The values obtained by the application of the RUSLE model have emphasized that land management by means of measures and actions for reducing WSE causes a notable reduction of the erosive rate decreasing from ~30 to 12.3 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . On the other hand, variations induced by hypothetical wildfires in forests on 10% of the regional territory bring WSE over the whole region to values varying from 30 to 116 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . This study can be offered to territorial planning authorities as an evaluation instrument as it highlights the merits and limitations of some territorial management actions. In fact, in Calabria no observations exist concerning the implications of these actions.

Terranova, O.; Antronico, L.; Coscarelli, R.; Iaquinta, P.

2009-11-01

269

Critical stress scenarios for a coastal aquifer in southeastern Italy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over the last years the sustainable management of coastal water resources has become strategic, especially in southern Salento Peninsula (Apulia), where mal-performing management strategies adopted, together with the vulnerability of the hydrogeological system, have given rise to the deterioration of groundwater quality due to saltwater intrusion. In the study area there is the presence of multilevel shallow aquifer and a deep aquifer that interact by means of faults. The geological system is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion so there is the need to adopt management strategies to avoid seawater intrusion phenomena. Nevertheless there is a lack of studies that analyze the methodology for the correct exploitation if the water resource in order to avoid further intrusion phenomena. This paper combines a density-driven, flow numerical model (Seawat v.4) with a fault conceptual and hydrologic model to simulate saltwater intrusion phenomenon in the deep as well as in the shallow aquifer of the Salento area. By means of the individuation of an indicator parameter of groundwater quality, it has been possible to simulate different scenarios of exploitation and therefore to define critical stress scenarios for both aquifers. The results show that the deep aquifer is more vulnerable than the shallow one, which means that in the former, in order not to reach conditions of contamination, a lower density of wells is necessary than in the latter. The reduction of well density coupled with the artificial recharge of freshwater into the aquifer may be proposed as a solution strategy to protect the aquifer. Therefore, future developments of the present study will be represented by the simulation of different scenarios of recharging to inhibit the saltwater intrusion front further inland. The proposed methodology and its future developments can represent an empirical tool to provide preliminary guidelines for long-term groundwater management in coastal aquifers.

Cherubini, C.; Pastore, N.

2011-05-01

270

Multimedia Scenario in a Primary School  

Microsoft Academic Search

Multimedia as an educational technology tool is used throughout the educational system. In this article we present a research project where multimedia scenario was used to initiate a discussion about Internet use among students and teachers at a primary school. Multimedia scenario is the use of large screen multimedia to initiate and facilitate discussion in a group of learners. Multimedia

Urban Nulden; Bodil Ward

2002-01-01

271

Learning With Scenarios: Summary and Critical Issues  

Microsoft Academic Search

This issue of Advances in Developing Human Resources has discussed scenario planning as a contemporary business approach to support the strategic roles of human resource departments in organizations. Scenario planning is usually situated in the domain of strategic and business planning, yet it is increasingly considered a major organizational intervention approach to overcome organizational defensive routines and bring about learning

George Burt; Thomas J. Chermack

2008-01-01

272

Scenario Planning at College of Marin.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

273

Definitions and Outcome Variables of Scenario Planning  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning has been receiving increased attention as a tool for considering the future in the midst of a rapidly changing business environment. This article examines available definitions of scenario planning, analyzes the espoused dependent variables of the process, sets forth an integrative definition, and supports the further development of the process as a useful and relevant tool for strategic

Thomas J. Chermack; Susan A. Lynham

2002-01-01

274

The Case Study Approach to Scenario Planning  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that organizations use to develop flexible long-term plans. The authors, experienced in case study design, development, and method for teaching in an MBA program, used the case study approach to create a scenario planning strategy to analyze a company's product and move the company through its decision-making dilemmas. The case study is a

A. Gregory Stone

2006-01-01

275

Offshore information systems outsourcing: strategies and scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents the findings of an ongoing research study into offshore information technology and systems outsourcing. Fieldwork was conducted in India and the United Kingdom to identify different strategies and scenarios. Based on the premise that offshore outsourcing poses greater risks than using suppliers from the home country, the research develops a risk assessment matrix comprising four scenarios: body

Naureen Khan; Wendy L. Currie; Vishanth Weerakkody

2003-01-01

276

Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the

Osvaldo E. Sala; F. Stuart Chapin III; Juan J. Armesto; Eric Berlow; Janine Bloomfield; Rodolfo Dirzo; Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald; Laura F. Huenneke; Robert B. Jackson; David M. Lodge; Harold A. Mooney; N. LeRoy Poff; Martin T. Sykes; Brian H. Walker; Diana H. Wall

2000-01-01

277

Social assessment of waste energy utilization scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) constructed four energy scenarios for the year 2005 and 2020 referring to the German State of Baden-Württemberg. All these scenarios are based on the promise of the German government to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions by 25% in the year 2005, and there is a commitment of a 45% reduction for the year

Ortwin Renn

2003-01-01

278

A Temporal Model for Interactive Multimedia Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

One of the main issues in temporal models of scenarios is the flexibility the model has to express different temporal relationships. In this paper, we a re mainly concerned with the temporal behavior of scenarios; other attributes of the document including its layout, quality, and playback speed are not the primary focus of our investigation. Of main issue to us

Na'el Hirzalla; Benjamin Falchuk; Ahmed Karmouch

1995-01-01

279

USING SERVICE SCENARIOS TO MODEL BUSINESS SERVICES  

Microsoft Academic Search

The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting during the execution of a service. The model

Lars Bækgaard

280

Component ecological footprint: developing sustainable scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The component ecological footprint is presented and its value as a regional planning tool is demonstrated. The component ecological footprint of waste, transport, energy, water, bio-resources is calculated for Guernsey (Channel Islands). This tool also has the ability to be used to develop scenarios for a sustainable future. A detailed scenario for passenger transport on Guernsey is presented demonstrating that

John Barrett

2001-01-01

281

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

282

Management Contracting.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This paper considers a practical method of integrating the management process with the construction process. It involves the identification of existing construction management expertise and an analysis of a rapidly emerging concept by which this expertise...

J. M. DipTech

1983-01-01

283

Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals  

SciTech Connect

Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

2008-10-03

284

Empirical Studies in Information Visualization: Seven Scenarios.  

PubMed

We take a new, scenario based look at evaluation in information visualization. Our seven scenarios, evaluating visual data analysis and reasoning, evaluating user performance, evaluating user experience, evaluating environments and work practices, evaluating communication through visualization, evaluating visualization algorithms, and evaluating collaborative data analysis were derived through an extensive literature review of over 800 visualization publications. These scenarios distinguish different study goals and types of research questions and are illustrated through example studies. Through this broad survey and the distillation of these scenarios we make two contributions. One, we encapsulate the current practices in the information visualization research community and, two, we provide a different approach to reaching decisions about what might be the most effective evaluation of a given information visualization. Scenarios can be used to choose appropriate research questions and goals and the provided examples can be consulted for guidance on how to design one's own study. PMID:22144529

Lam, Heidi; Bertini, Enrico; Isenberg, Petra; Plaisant, Catherine; Carpendale, Sheelagh

2011-11-30

285

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.  

PubMed

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

Leufkens, H; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F; Bakker, A; Dukes, G

1994-10-29

286

The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach  

PubMed Central

We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives.

Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

287

The role of pre-existing disturbances in the effect of marine reserves on coastal ecosystems: a modelling approach.  

PubMed

We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2013-04-12

288

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.  

PubMed

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. PMID:23708563

Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

2013-05-23

289

Generation Scenarios of Mediterranean Cyclones  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of this study is to objectively identify relations between formation of Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) and existing cyclones, regarded as 'parent cyclones'. Our hypothesis is that most of the MCs are 'daughter cyclones' of parent European cyclones or of tropical cyclonic systems, such as the Red Sea trough. The cyclone detection is based on 61 years data (for the months October-May, 1950-2010) of sea-level pressure (SLP). First, the MCs were scanned and tracked. Then they were divided to those formed within the Mediterranean and those entered into the Mediterranean from the Atlantic, Europe or North Africa. For each of the MCs formed within the Mediterranean, we searched for its parent cyclone. This is done by mapping the 'area of influence' (AOI) for the existing cyclones 6 hours prior to the formation of the new MC. The AOI is determined by mapping the curvature of the streamlines on the 1000-hPa level, starting from the cyclone center, and proceeding outwards, through continuous region with positive (cyclonic) curvature and higher SLP values while moving farther from the cyclone center. If the location of a new MC is found within the AOI of existing cyclone, or within a distance of 2° from such, it is regarded as its daughter cyclone. In a case when a new MC is found in an AOI of more than one existing cyclone, the closest one is regarded as its parent cyclone. An objective analysis of the MCs for the study period indicates that 96.5% of them are daughter cyclones. The parent cyclones of 35.5% of them were found to be older MCs, i.e., within the Mediterranean Basin, 30% are outside and north of the Mediterranean (north of 36° N and west of 40° E) and 16.5% are outside and south of the Mediterranean (south of 36° N and west of 40° E). The rest of the daughter MCs either have parent cyclones east of 40° E (14.4%) or found to have no parent cyclone (3.6%).

Ziv, Baruch; Saaroni, Hadas; Harpaz, Tzvi

2013-04-01

290

Integrated Scenarios Analysis for the California Water Plan Update  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Sierra Nevada Mountain Range is the water tower of California - providing drinking water for the state's large urban areas and irrigation for much of the state's vast agricultural land. Presently, Sierra snowpack accounts for approximately half of the surface water storage in the state. Current projections forecast that this snowpack may decline by 70 to 90 percent over the next century, threatening California's water supply. At the same time, by the year 2050 changes in water demands due to trends in population and land use are projected to range from a 3 percent decrease to a 7 percent increase over average 1998-2005 demands (80.1 million acre-feet). Choosing appropriate management policies and/or interventions in the face of this uncertainty is challenging to say the least. As such, we have developed an integrated water basin analysis tool, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, that allows for the evaluation of different combinations of proposed adaptation strategies (response packages) across the range of uncertainties (climate, population, and land use). The tool focuses on two hydrologic regions (Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins) that encompass the bulk of the Sierra Nevada runoff. The tool integrates hydrologic processes into a water resources modeling framework such that climatic inputs can be used to drive the model. We have used this feature to evaluate the impacts on water supplies (through changes in snow melt and runoff patterns) and water demands (through changes in crop evapotranspiration) under twelve climate change projections (2 GHG emission scenarios x 6 GCM's). These scenarios were combined with three demographic and land use projections to produce 36 scenarios, which were the basis for evaluating the effectiveness of different response packages. This study demonstrated that the use of an integrated tool to conduct scenarios analysis is an effective means of identifying robust strategies for water resources planning and management in the face of uncertainty.

Joyce, B. A.; Yates, D.; Groves, D.; Draper, A.; Juricich, R.; Purkey, D.

2010-12-01

291

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND TOURISM - HOW TO HANDLE AND OPERATE WITH DATA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Climate runs with climate scenarios provide many climatological parameters and information at several temporal and spatial scales. Regional climate models, e.g. REMO, produce data at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a temporal scale of one hour. These data files for diverse climate scenarios, e.g. A1B, are huge and it is difficult to do calculation with them. The existing

A. Matzarakis; O. Matuschek; R. Neumcke; F. Rutz; M. Zalloom

2007-01-01

292

The future scorecard: combining external and internal scenarios to create strategic foresight  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a new and systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining traditional external scenarios (market-based approach) with internal scenarios (resource-based approach) into a future scorecard, which can be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The paper builds on the existing literature as well as on

Alexander Fink; Bernard Marr; Andreas Siebe; Jens-Peter Kuhle

2005-01-01

293

Torsion effects in braneworld scenarios  

SciTech Connect

We present gravitational aspects of braneworld models endowed with torsion terms both in the bulk and on the brane. In order to investigate a conceivable and measurable gravitational effect, arising genuinely from bulk torsion terms, we analyze the variation in the black hole area by the presence of torsion. Furthermore, we extend the well-known results about consistency conditions in a framework that incorporates brane torsion terms. It is shown, in a rough estimate, that the resulting effects are generally suppressed by the internal space volume. This formalism provides manageable models and their possible ramifications into some aspects of gravity in this context, and cognizable corrections and physical effects as well.

Hoff da Silva, J. M.; Rocha, R. da [Centro de Matematica, Computacao e Cognicao, Universidade Federal do ABC, 09210-170, Santo Andre, SP (Brazil)

2010-01-15

294

Dealing with environmental uncertainty : The value of scenario planning for small to medium-sized entreprises (SMEs)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The purpose of this commentary is to discuss environmental uncertainty and to illustrate the value of scenario planning for small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in a volatile environment. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The literature regarding strategy formulation, environmental uncertainty and scenario planning is reviewed and considered in the context of managerial decision making. Findings – Given the way managers

Michael Johnston; Audrey Gilmore; David Carson

2008-01-01

295

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.  

PubMed

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies. PMID:15246577

Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

2004-08-01

296

Do fuzzy quantum structures exist?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recently, some fuzzy quantum structures were introduced. We focus on the fuzzy quantum logics arising from the isomorphism of some quantum logics and some systems of fuzzy subsets of the ordering sets of states. In general, a fuzzy quantum logic is equipped with the pointwise-defined fuzzy connectives generated by a common generator g. Stressing the pointwise nature of fuzzy structures and omitting the global properties of quantum elements, we find that only crisp values of elements of a fuzzy quantum logic are allowed. Consequently, fuzzy quantum structures do not exist! However, there exist quantum structures of fuzzy subsets.

Mesiar, Radko

1995-08-01

297

Future ecosystem services in a Southern African river basin: a scenario planning approach to uncertainty.  

PubMed

Scenario planning is a promising tool for dealing with uncertainty, but it has been underutilized in ecology and conservation. The use of scenarios to explore ecological dynamics of alternative futures has been given a major boost by the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a 4-year initiative to investigate relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales. Scenarios, as descriptive narratives of pathways to the future, are a mechanism for improving the understanding and management of ecological and social processes by scientists and decision makers with greater flexibility than conventional techniques could afford. We used scenarios in one of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's subglobal components to explore four possible futures in a Southern African river basin. Because of its ability to capture spatial and temporal dynamics, the scenario exercise revealed key trade-offs in ecosystem services in space and time and the importance of a multiple-scale scenario design. At subglobal scales, scenarios are a powerful vehicle for communication and engagement of decision makers, especially when designed to identify responses to specific problems. Scenario planning has the potential to be a critical ingredient in conservation as calls are increasingly made for the field to help define and achieve sustainable visions for the future. PMID:16922222

Bohensky, Erin L; Reyers, Belinda; Van Jaarsveld, Albert S

2006-08-01

298

DOES THE OEDIPUS COMPLEX EXIST?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Oedipus complex is considered to be the nucleus of neurosis for Freud and many psychoanalysts. Examination of the nature and origins of the Oedipus complex presented by psychoanalysts and critics suggests, that as a hypothetical construct, there is little evidence to support its existence.

JOEL KUPFERSMID

1995-01-01

299

LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement.  

PubMed

When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues. PMID:22516101

Slagstad, Helene; Brattebø, Helge

2012-04-18

300

COML (Classroom Orchestration Modelling Language) and Scenarios Designer: Toolsets to Facilitate Collaborative Learning in a One-to-One Technology Classroom  

Microsoft Academic Search

In a one-to-one collaborative learning classroom supported by ubiquitous computing, teachers require tools that allow them to design of learning scenarios, and to manage and monitor the activities happening in the classroom. Our project proposes an architecture for a classroom management system and a scenarios designer tool, both based on a Classroom Orchestration Modelling Language (COML), to support these requirements.

Jitti Niramitranon; Mike Sharples; Chris Greenhalgh

301

Development Of Strategy For The Management Of LLW In The United Kingdom  

SciTech Connect

The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is a UK non-departmental public body with a remit to clean up the civil public sector nuclear legacy. Much work has been done to date on developing contractor competition for the management of NDA-owned sites, including the UK's principal disposal facility: the Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) in Cumbria. The competition goals and principles are integrated with the framework for the development of a UK Low Level Waste (LLW) management plan, through which the NDA will deliver its commitments to UK Government and stakeholders. Nexia Solutions has undertaken work for the NDA in assessing strategic options and scenarios for the management and disposal of current UK LLW. The volumetric, radiological and strategic limitations of existing disposition routes have been assessed against the inventories and characteristics of LLW forecast to arise. A number of potential alternative scenarios and variants for future LLW management have been modelled and assessed. (authors)

Wareing, A.S. [Nexia Solutions Ltd, Risley, Warrington, Cheshire, WA (United Kingdom); Fisher, J. [Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, Herdus House, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria, CA24 3HU (United Kingdom)

2008-07-01

302

Does Altruism Undermine Existence Value?  

Microsoft Academic Search

The debate over the use of contingent valuation for existence values or passive-use values has failed to explore the validity of motives for such values. One potential motive, altruism, has conflicting implications for benefit-cost analysis, depending on whether the altruist is paternalistic. This paper constructs models of three types of altruism and shows how benefit-cost analysis responds to each type

K. E. McConnell

1997-01-01

303

Hollow current profile scenarios for advanced tokamak reactor operations  

SciTech Connect

Advanced tokamak scenarios are a possible approach to boosting reactor performances. Such schemes usually trigger current holes, a particular magnetohydrodynamics equilibrium where no current or pressure gradients exist in the core of the plasma. While such equilibria have large bootstrap fractions, flat pressure profiles in the plasma core may not be optimal for a reactor. However, moderate modifications of the equilibrium current profile can lead to diamagnetism where most of the pressure gradient is now balanced by poloidal currents and the toroidal magnetic field. In this paper, we consider the properties of diamagnetic current holes, also called ''dual equilibria,'' and demonstrate that fusion throughput can be significantly increased in such scenarios. Their stability is investigated using the DCON code. Plasmas with a beta peak of 30% and an average beta of 6% are found stable to both fixed and free-boundary modes with toroidal mode numbers n=1-4, as well as Mercier and high-n ballooning modes. This is not surprising as these scenarios have a normal beta close to 3.

Gourdain, P.-A. [Laboratory of Plasma Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 (United States) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1547 (United States); Leboeuf, J.-N. [JNL Scientific, Casa Grande, Arizona 85222 (United States)

2009-11-15

304

Neutrino phenomenology of very low-energy seesaw scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The standard model augmented by the presence of gauge-singlet right-handed neutrinos proves to be an ideal scenario for accommodating nonzero neutrino masses. Among the new parameters of this “new standard model” are right-handed neutrino Majorana masses M. Theoretical prejudice points to M much larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, but it has recently been emphasized that all M values are technically natural and should be explored. Indeed, M around 1 10eV can accommodate an elegant oscillation solution to the liquid scintillator neutrino detector (LSND) anomaly, while other M values lead to several observable consequences. We consider the phenomenology of low-energy (M?1keV) seesaw scenarios. By exploring such a framework with three right-handed neutrinos, we can consistently fit all oscillation data—including those from LSND—while partially addressing several astrophysical puzzles, including anomalous pulsar kicks, heavy element nucleosynthesis in supernovae, and the existence of warm dark matter. In order to accomplish all of this, we find that a nonstandard cosmological scenario is required. Finally, low-energy seesaws—regardless of their relation to the LSND anomaly—can also be tested by future tritium beta-decay experiments, neutrinoless double-beta decay searches, and other observables. We estimate the sensitivity of such probes to M.

de Gouvêa, André; Jenkins, James; Vasudevan, Nirmala

2007-01-01

305

Type Ia Supernovae and the DD Scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

Isern, J.; García-Berro, E.; Lorén-Aguilar, P.

2012-07-01

306

IPCC Scenarios for the Year 2100  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The figure summarizes some of the key variations amongst the six illustrative scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in considering possible future emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century.

Rhode, Robert A.; Art, Globalwarming

307

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.  

PubMed

The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process. PMID:21908095

Mazzorana, B; Comiti, F; Scherer, C; Fuchs, S

2011-09-09

308

Emergent universe scenario via Quintom matter  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The emergent universe scenario provides a possible alternative to bouncing cosmology to avoid the Big Bang singularity problem. In this Letter we study the realization of the emergent universe scenario by making use of Quintom matter with an equation of state across the cosmological constant boundary. We will show explicitly the analytic and numerical solutions of emergent universe in two Quintom models, which are a phenomenological fluid and a nonconventional spinor field, respectively.

Cai, Yi-Fu; Li, Mingzhe; Zhang, Xinmin

2012-12-01

309

Climate change scenarios for the California region  

Microsoft Academic Search

To investigate possible future climate changes in California, a set of climate change model simulations was selected and evaluated.\\u000a From the IPCC Fourth Assessment, simulations of twenty-first century climates under a B1 (low emissions) and an A2 (a medium-high\\u000a emissions) emissions scenarios were evaluated, along with occasional comparisons to the A1fi (high emissions) scenario. The\\u000a climate models whose simulations were

Daniel R. Cayan; Edwin P. Maurer; Michael D. Dettinger; Mary Tyree; Katharine Hayhoe

2008-01-01

310

Framework for scenario development in LCA  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article is based on the work of the SETAC-Europe LCA Working Group ‘Scenario Development in LCA’, which has started its\\u000a work in April 1998. The goal of the Working Group is to focus on the use of scenarios in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This\\u000a article presents the results of the first phase of the Working Group. The previous definitions

Hanna-Leena Pesonen; Tomas Ekvall; Giinter Fleischer; Gjalt Huppes; Christina Jahn; Zbigniew S. Klos; Gerald Rebitzer; Guido W. Sonnemann; Alberto Tintinelli; Bo P. Weidema; Henrik Wenzel

2000-01-01

311

String GUT scenarios with stabilized moduli  

Microsoft Academic Search

Taking into account the recently proposed poly-instanton corrections to the superpotential and combining the racetrack with a Kachru-Kallosh-Linde-Trivedi, respectively, large volume scenario in an intricate manner, we show that we gain exponential control over the parameters in an effective superpotential. This allows us to dynamically stabilize moduli such that a conventional minimal supersymmetric standard model scenario with the string scale

Ralph Blumenhagen; Sebastian Moster; Erik Plauschinn

2008-01-01

312

A proposal for a scenario classification framework  

Microsoft Academic Search

The requirements engineering, information systems and software engineering communities recently advocated scenario-based approaches\\u000a which emphasise the user\\/system interaction perspective in developing computer systems. Use of examples, scenes, narrative\\u000a descriptions of contexts, mock-ups and prototypes-all these ideas can be called scenario-based approaches, although exact\\u000a definitions are not easy beyond stating that these approaches emphasise some description of the real world. Experience

C. Rolland; C. Ben Achour; C. Cauvet; J. Ralyté; A. Sutcliffe; N. Maiden; M. Jarke; P. Haumer; K. Pohl; E. Dubois; P. Heymans

1998-01-01

313

Scenario planning for sustainable tourism: an introduction  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper introduces the development of scenario planning for sustainable tourism, from the 1970s to the present day. It outlines the links between scenario planning and forecasting, its role as a business-planning tool generally, and its use in tourism for destination planning and advocacy. The prominent role of models is shown and the evolution from the first generation of forecast-focused

Stefan Gössling; Daniel Scott

2012-01-01

314

FAST plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this paper we present the fusion advanced studies torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of plasma-wall interaction, burning plasma physics, ITER relevant operation problems and steady state scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen in a wide range of parameters from high performance H-mode (toroidal field, BT, up to 8.5 T; plasma current, IP, up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (IP = 3 MA) as well as full non-inductive current scenario (IP = 2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30 MW delivered by an ion cyclotron resonance heating system (30-90 MHz), 6 MW by a lower hybrid system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an electron cyclotron resonant heating system (170 GHz - BT = 6 T) for MHD and localized electron heating control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a negative neutral ion beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ion induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The non-inductive scenario at IP = 2 MA is obtained with 60-70% of bootstrap current and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios have been performed by means of the JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and shape control studies are also presented for the reference scenario.

Calabrò, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Albanese, R.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Granucci, G.; Maddaluno, G.; Marinucci, M.; Nowak, S.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Pironti, A.; Tuccillo, A. A.; Zonca, F.

2009-05-01

315

Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article reports on a simulation and scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth and resulting energy demand and CO2<\\/sub> emissions. The model includes provincial level logistic growth functions with saturation levels representative of neighboring Asian economies, income growth measured in international dollars, and both estimated and literature-based income elasticities. Scenarios explore variation in key parameters, including income and population

Peter H. Kobos; Jon D. Erickson; Thomas E. Drennen

2003-01-01

316

Trials and tribulations of year one: initiating cross-continuum care management in a community-based hospital.  

PubMed

To prepare to enter the Last Great Race, the Iditarod, you need a great team with experience, dedication, training, sponsorship, and the ability to work towards the desired goal. Planning a cross-continuum care management system is equally challenging. In this article, we present a real-life example of how a community-based hospital system has begun to integrate existing case management and care coordination efforts into a unified approach to care management. This scenario challenges organizations developing, refining, and evaluating care management efforts to think about what is being done, how, and why. PMID:10747431

Edson, J W; Hyland-Hill, B M; Kronlund, S

2000-02-01

317

Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.

Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

2001-12-01

318

Generation of Multi-model Ensemble Scenario Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate scenarios and associated applications in hydrologic studies have become an important research area and public interest during the last decades. Many agencies are developing climate models to simulate the current climate and its future changes under several greenhouse gas scenarios. Existing methods for climate change projections are generally based on multiple model ensembles of global circulation model (GCM), and a probabilistic approach considering the multiple models. This study proposes a Hierarchical Bayesian model for the distribution of precipitation and temperature for the 20th century and for the projected scenarios for the 21st century, the proposed model is mainly used to assess the uncertainties and develop multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios for control and scenario periods. The model combines observed rainfall and temperature data for the control period with different GCMs. This study was based on the existing works that are regarded one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different multi-model simulations from the IPCC RCP scenarios.

So, Byung-Jin; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young; Kim, Tae-Jung

2013-04-01

319

Receiving and Shipping Management in a Transshipment Center  

Microsoft Academic Search

This research discusses how to apply the concept of the extra supply chain cost to managing an operational problem in a transshipment center. We set four scenarios. Scenario 1 is: goods will be sent to the transshipment center until there is no free space. Scenario 2 is: goods will be sent to the transshipment center and a temporary space. Scenario

CHYUAN PERNG; ZIH-PING HO

2007-01-01

320

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development  

SciTech Connect

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

321

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2009-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis. 68.28 Section 68.28 ...Assessment § 68.28 Alternative release scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify...

2009-07-01

322

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2010-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis. 68.28 Section 68.28 ...Assessment § 68.28 Alternative release scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify...

2010-07-01

323

Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

2011-12-01

324

The Future of Scenarios: Issues in Developing New Climate Change Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Research, analysis and commnetary since the release of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios has suggested a number of areas, e.g. rates of economic growth, downscaling and scenario likelihood, where additional research would make the next set of scenarios of greater use and increased credibility. This essary reviews the work on the areas mentioned above and makes suggestions about possible ways to improve the next set of climate scenarios, to be developed by the research community without a specific IPCC terms of reference to guide the work.

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-06-01

325

Twenty-Five Years of HIV: Lessons for Low Prevalence Scenarios  

PubMed Central

During the initial quarter century since the discovery of HIV, international response has focused on high prevalence scenarios and concentrated epidemics. Until recently, the theoretical underpinnings of HIV prevention were largely based on these responses—the assumption that inadequate responses to concentrated epidemics within low prevalence populations could rapidly lead to generalized epidemics. The limits of these assumptions for HIV prevention in low prevalence scenarios have become evident. While examples of rapid HIV diffusion in once low prevalence scenarios exist, emergence of generalized epidemics are less likely for much of the world. This paper reviews several key issues and advances in biomedical and behavioural HIV prevention to date and highlights relevance to low prevalence scenarios.

Sawires, Sharif; Birnbaum, Nina; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Szekeres, Greg; Gayle, Jacob

2012-01-01

326

Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

2001-07-11

327

Managing a Non-linear Scenario - A Narrative Evolution  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper examines the causes and consequences of the narrative paradox phenomenon widely ob served in VR. We present an alternative approach to virtual and interactive storytelling in the form of the e mergent narrative concept, together with an implementation of a subset of these ideas in the FearNot! demonstrator.

Sandy Louchart; Ruth Aylett

2005-01-01

328

Scenario of solid waste management in present Indian context  

Microsoft Academic Search

A trend of significant increase in municipal solid waste generation has been recorded worldwide. This has been found due to over population growth rate, industrialization, urbanization and economic growth. Consumerism speed has been found very high covering around more then 50% of total population since last decade due to higher economic growth, which has ultimately resulted in increased solid waste

R. Rajput; G. Prasad; A. K. Chopra

329

Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition, and Management: The World Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial, and construction activities by natural persons that is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population and urbanization, and the development of social economy, coupled with the improvement of living standard, have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world.

Tanmoy Karak; R. M. Bhagat; Pradip Bhattacharyya

2012-01-01

330

Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever\\u000a before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and\\u000a place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through

Daryl H. Hepting; Timothy Maciag

2010-01-01

331

Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition and Management: The World Scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the abridgment of the waste generated from domestic, commercial and construction activities by natural persons which is collected and treated by municipalities. Exponential growth of population, urbanization, development of social economy, coupled with improvement of living standard have resulted in an increase in the amount of MSW generation throughout the world. On an average the

TANMOY KARAK; R. M. BHAGAT; PRADIP BHATTACHARYYA

2011-01-01

332

Scenario analysis of nutrient management at the river basin scale  

Microsoft Academic Search

A new river basin model (TRANS) for studying the transport, removal and accumulation of nutrients in rivers, lakes and riparian areas has been developed and tested on data from a 115 km2 river basin in Denmark (river Gjern). The model combines catchment information on soil type and land use with a physical hydrodynamic modelling system and several semi-dynamic empirical models

B. Kronvang; L. M. Svendsen; J. P. Jensen; J. Dørge

1999-01-01

333

Multiverse Scenarios in Cosmology: Classification, Cause, Challenge, Controversy, and Criticism  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multiverse scenarios in cosmology assume that other universes exist "beyond" our own universe. They are an exciting challenge both for empirical and theoretical research as well as for philosophy of science. They could be necessary to understand why the big bang occurred, why (some of) the laws of nature and the values of certain physical constants are the way they are, and why there is an arrow of time. This essay clarifies competing notions of "universe" and "multiverse"; it proposes a classification of different multiverse types according to various aspects how the universes are or are not separated from each other; it reviews the main reasons for assuming the existence of other universes: empirical evidence, theoretical explanation, and philosophical arguments; and, finally, it argues that some attempts to criticize multiverse scenarios as "unscientific", insisting on a narrow understanding of falsification, is neither appropriate nor convincing from a philosophy of science point of view. -- Keywords: big bang, universe, multiverse, cosmic inflation, time, quantum gravity, string theory, laws of nature, physical constants, fine-tuning, anthropic principle, philosophy of science, metaphysics, falsificationism

Vaas, Rüdiger

2010-01-01

334

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

335

Equality and selection for existence.  

PubMed Central

It is argued that the policy of excluding from further life some human gametes and pre-embryos as "unfit" for existence is not at odds with a defensible idea of human equality. Such an idea must be compatible with the obvious fact that the "functional" value of humans differs, that their "use" to themselves and others differs. A defensible idea of human equality is instead grounded in the fact that as this functional difference is genetically determined, it is nothing which makes humans deserve or be worthy of being better or worse off. Rather, nobody is worth a better life than anyone else. This idea of equality is, however, not applicable to gametes and pre-embryos, since they are not human beings, but something out of which human beings develop.

Persson, I

1999-01-01

336

Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.  

SciTech Connect

The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

2005-10-01

337

String GUT scenarios with stabilized moduli  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taking into account the recently proposed poly-instanton corrections to the superpotential and combining the racetrack with a Kachru-Kallosh-Linde-Trivedi, respectively, large volume scenario in an intricate manner, we show that we gain exponential control over the parameters in an effective superpotential. This allows us to dynamically stabilize moduli such that a conventional minimal supersymmetric standard model scenario with the string scale lowered to the grand unified theory scale is realized. Depending on the cycles wrapped by the minimal supersymmetric standard model branes, two different scenarios for the hierarchy of soft masses arise. The first one is a supergravity mediated model with M3/2?1TeV while the second one features mixed anomaly supergravity mediation with M3/2?1010GeV and split supersymmetry. We also comment on dynamically lowering the scales such that the tree level cosmological constant is of the order ?=(10-3eV)4.

Blumenhagen, Ralph; Moster, Sebastian; Plauschinn, Erik

2008-09-01

338

Q fever in Logroño: an attack scenario.  

PubMed

Bioterrorism has emerged as an important infectious disease and public health challenge in the 21st century, and issues of preparedness and response are now prominent. The development of attack scenarios for assessing this problem contributes to the organization of response systems and identifies aspects that may need to be improved. The authors present an attack scenario involving Q fever in a specific area, the city of Logroño, Spain. The evolution of the outbreak is described and the attempts at diagnosis and implementation of public health measures are outlined. Knowledge of the pathogen in the specific scenario and the ability to directly diagnose the disease it causes may be of help to facilitate a fast response that will contain public unrest and the eventual outcome in terms of morbidity and mortality. PMID:17335700

Pappas, Georgios; Blanco, José R; Oteo, José A

2007-03-01

339

[Dutch government invests in existing biobanks].  

PubMed

Modern research, aimed at discovering factors that influence health and disease, requires large collections of data and samples. Collaboration between biobanks is therefore essential. The Dutch hub in the network of biobanks, the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), is one of the major Dutch biobanking initiatives. It is sponsored by the Dutch government through the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). BBMRI-NL sets up collaboration between approximately 150 existing clinical and population biobanks in the Netherlands, and forms the link with the European BBMRI initiative. BBMRI-NL aims at enrichment and harmonization of existing Dutch biobanks, at data management and analysis, and at laying the legal, social and ethical foundations, in order to improve access and inter-operability, and to render the information and organization up to date. Other major Dutch initiatives are String of Pearls and LifeLines. Together these will create the conditions needed for Dutch researchers to further develop their strong position in the international biobanking field. PMID:21029488

Brandsma, Margreet; van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; Wijmenga, Cisca; Kiemeney, Lambertus A

2010-01-01

340

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

341

Developing MVNO market scenarios and strategies through a scenario planning approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) in Korean mobile market through a scenario planning approach. Due to versatility of MVNO, its advent is expected to create many new service providers, allowing them to launch their businesses in emerging mobile market. But the future business environments for potential MVNOs are very uncertain

Park Jeong-seok; Rye Kyung-seok

2005-01-01

342

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the

Hugh M. Pitcher

2009-01-01

343

Exposure Scenarios and Guidance Values for Urban Soil Pollutants  

Microsoft Academic Search

In general, risk assessments of urban soil pollution are prepared by comparing the levels of pollutants with soil quality criteria. However, large urban areas are contaminated with concentrations of pollutants far exceeding the existing soil quality criteria and would consequently be considered to be of potential risk to humans. This is, however, a rather rigid approach, and for risk management

Helle Buchardt Boyd; Finn Pedersen; Karl-Heinz Cohr; Axel Damborg; Bodil M. Jakobsen; Preben Kristensen; Lise Samsøe-Petersen

1999-01-01

344

Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre-projection and actually projection stages. On pre-projection stage the algorithm of calculation is developed; the choice of operational units for the projection is carried out; the modern condition of water resources and its connection with use of water in examined river basins is considered; tendencies in development of an economy and use of water resources during last decades are revealed. On actually projection stages are analyzed available forecasts concerning an expected population and indexes of development for the economy basic branches, and also specific water consumption, taking into account radical methods on prevention of water resources quality deterioration. Results of development of integrated scenarios are submitted by the examples for the largest river basins of Russian plain and Siberia (Volga, Don and Lena river basins).

Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

2010-12-01

345

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS  

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

346

Scenario analysis of demand in a technology market using leading indicators  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper proposes an approach to analyzing demand scenarios in technology-driven markets where product demands are volatile, but follow a few identifiable lifecycle patterns. After examining a large amount of semiconductor data, we found that not only can products be clustered by lifecycle patterns, but in each cluster there exists a leading indicator product that provides advanced indication of changes

Mary J. Meixell; S. David Wu

2001-01-01

347

Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview  

USGS Publications Warehouse

On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

Kilpatrick, F. A.

1977-01-01

348

Complex decision making experimental platform (CODEM): A counter-insurgency scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

The complex decision making experimental platform (CODEM) is intended as a shareable research tool to stimulate multidisciplinary research on complex dynamic situation management and as an environment for training and testing cognitive readiness. The experimenter can set general parameters, configure the interface, specify the model, insert events and define the resources and capabilities of each player using the scenario development

Daniel Lafond; Michel B. DuCharme

2011-01-01

349

RSS and Vodcasting for Undergraduate Design and Technology Stude nts: Mobile Learning Scenarios, Issues and Challenges  

Microsoft Academic Search

Th is paper describes a study of mobile learning for undergraduate design and technology education. The methodology is action research, to assess student\\/ lecturer competencies with mobile learning on two modules. It was found that RSS and Vodcasting learning scenarios require a fundamental shift in stakeholders' management of internet- based educational information for design and technology education. Collecting data on

M. R. Hepburn; A. R. Hodgson

350

Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling  

Microsoft Academic Search

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative

Margherita Pagani

2009-01-01

351

Projected population dynamics for a federally endangered plant under different climate change emission scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Land managers primarily collect population counts to track rare plant population trends. These count-based data sets are often used to develop population viability analysis (PVA) to project future status of these populations. Additionally, practitioners can use this count-based data to project population size changes under different climate change scenarios at both local and regional levels. In this study we developed

Brenda Molano-Flores; Timothy J. Bell

352

Data envelopment scenario analysis for setting targets to electricity generating plants  

Microsoft Academic Search

The development of viable and challenging performance measurement systems in multi-unit organisations receives increased attention in recent years. Performance is no longer viewed as a static phenomenon that reflects the past history of operating systems. There is increasing appreciation for the value of performance scenarios which can be used to guide management for the expected performance consequences of alternative policies.

Antreas D. Athanassopoulos; Nikos Lambroukos; Lawrence M. Seiford

1999-01-01

353

Modelling future urban scenarios in developing countries: an application case study in Lagos, Nigeria  

Microsoft Academic Search

We consider urban sustainability issues in developing countries, with a focus on urban growth. The need for urban management tools that are able to provide prospective scenarios is addressed. Urban simulations can represent a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current planning policies -- or their incompleteness. Nevertheless, simulations of future urban growth are usually quite difficult without tools

José I Barredo; Luca Demicheli; Carlo Lavalle; Marjo Kasanko; Niall McCormick

2004-01-01

354

Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain  

Microsoft Academic Search

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV\\/E\\/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and

O. Ortiz; J. C. Pasqualino; F. Castells

2010-01-01

355

Adapting for Uncertainty: A Scenario Analysis of U.S. Technology Energy Futures  

Microsoft Academic Search

Policymakers and managers in the U.S. energy sector will face complex multidimensional challenges as they confront potential supply shortfalls, infrastructure constraints, and environmental limitations in the years ahead. Using a technique known as scenario analysis, this paper investigates key energy issues and decisions that could improve or reduce the ability of the United States to deal with the uncertainties that

John A “Skip” Laitner; DONALD A. HANSON; Irving Mintzer; J. Amber Leonard

2006-01-01

356

Guest Editorial: Scenarios as a Tool for Reflection and Learning.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Introduces a collection of papers that resulted from a 3- year project on scenarios for the future of teacher education in Europe. The first part of the issue introduces scenarios and describes the scenario model developed at a conference. The second part analyzes curriculum developments in different countries, using the scenario model as an…

Snoek, Marco

2003-01-01

357

Scenario-based Analysis of Non-Functional Requirements  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, we propose an analysis method that describes scenario templates for NFRs, with heuristics for scenario generation, elaboration and validation. The paper is constructed in four sections. First the method is outlined, then the case study used to illustrate the method is introduced. This is followed by examples of the NFR scenario templates and the scenario based analysis

Alistair G. Sutcliffe; Shailey Minocha

1998-01-01

358

Detecting implied scenarios in message sequence chart specifications  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario-based specifications such as Message Sequence Charts (MSCs) are becoming increasingly popular as part of a requirements specification. Scenario describe how system components, the environment and users work concurrently and interact in order to provide system level functionality. Each scenario is a partial story which, when combined with other scenarios, should conform to provide a complete system description. However, although

Sebastián Uchitel; Jeff Kramer; Jeff Magee

2001-01-01

359

The Future of Economics: Four Possible Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Already during the financial crisis from 2007 through 2009, a growing number of scholars, laymen or media outlets blamed economics as such, at least partially, for the turmoil and subsequent economic malaise. Therefore, the debate concerning future long-term development of economics - or, more precisely, prevailing economic theory - has been intensifying. The following text outlines four possible scenarios -

Lukáš Kovanda

2011-01-01

360

Visual Language for Composable Simulation Scenarios.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Modeling and Simulation play an important role in how the Air Force trains and fights, Scenarios are used in simulation to give users the ability to specify entities and behaviors that should be simulated by a model, however, building and understanding sc...

C. R. Bartley

2003-01-01

361

Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

Goens, George A.

2001-01-01

362

Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight  

Microsoft Academic Search

Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and

Clem Bezold

2010-01-01

363

Integrated exhaust scenarios with actively controlled ELMs  

Microsoft Academic Search

An integrated radiative high performance scenario has been established at ASDEX Upgrade based on simultaneous feedback control of the average divertor neutral particle and power flux in combination with a high, pellet induced frequency of edge localized modes (ELMs). This approach is fully compatible with the present tungsten wall coating covering about 65% of the plasma facing components and is

P. T. Lang; A. Kallenbach; J. Bucalossi; G. D. Conway; A. Degeling; R. Dux; T. Eich; L. Fattorini; O. Gruber; S. Günter; A. Herrmann; J. Hobirk; L. D. Horton; S. Kalvin; G. Kocsis; J. Lister; M. E. Manso; M. Maraschek; Y. Martin; P. J. McCarthy; V. Mertens; R. Neu; J. Neuhauser; I. Nunes; T. Pütterich; V. Rozhansky; R. Schneider; W. Schneider; I. Senichenkov; A. C. C. Sips; W. Suttrop; W. Treutterer; I. Veselova; H. Zohm

2005-01-01

364

Collision Scenarios and Probabilistic Collision Damage  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper examines the influence of collision scenario random variables on the extent of predicted damage in ship collisions. Struck and striking ship speed, collision angle, striking ship type and striking ship displacement are treated as independent random variables. Other striking ship characteristics are treated as dependent variables derived from the independent variables based on relationships developed from worldwide ship

Alan J. Brown

2001-01-01

365

Collision scenarios and probabilistic collision damage  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper examines the influence of collision scenario random variables on the extent of predicted damage in ship collisions. Struck and striking ship speed, collision angle, striking ship type and striking ship displacement are treated as independent random variables. Other striking ship characteristics are treated as dependent variables derived from the independent variables based on relationships developed from worldwide ship

A. J. Brown

2002-01-01

366

A scenario of the TMI2 accident  

Microsoft Academic Search

This article is the first of a series of three Nuclear Safety articles summarizing the major research findings from the TMI-2 Accident Evaluation Program (AEP) being conducted by EG and G Idaho, Inc. for the US Department of Energy. The focal point of the AEP is to develop a consistent understanding of the core damage progression (accident scenario) during the

J. M. Broughton; E. L. Tolman; P. Kuan; D. Petti

1988-01-01

367

Design implications for believable & engaging scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

The recent researches in the realm of virtual learning environments have revealed how children can positively contribute in the design process. Comicboarding is a participatory designed method that involves the use of comic books and drawings to produce believable and engaging scenarios with children. Researchers can elicit ideas from children by leveraging known plot formats, interaction styles and characters in

Samiullah Paracha; M. T. A. Khan; A. Mehmood; Y. Osamu

2008-01-01

368

User Centric Privacy in Mobile Communication Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

One common assumption when defining location privacy metrics is that one is dealing with attackers whose objective is to re-identify an individual out of an anonymized data set. However, today's communication scenarios are more diverse. For instance, there are several entities involved in mobile location sharing between individuals. Hence, in a communication relation with a service provider (e.g. SNS or

Klaus Rechert; Sven Wohlgemuth; Isao Echizen; Noboru Sonehara

2011-01-01

369

Modeling ambient background in complex detection scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Radiation detection instrumentation is being widely deployed as a countermeasure against the movement and use of radiological dispersal devices and nuclear weapons. Accurate ambient background modeling is critical for accurate simulation of detection scenarios of interest; these background source terms influence minimum detectable limits and are thus a significant factor in overall system performance. Described below are the methods used

Scott D. Kiff; Leon E. Smith; Kenneth D. Jarman

2007-01-01

370

A Scenario for the Future of Museums  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

Cunningham, Mary Kay

2009-01-01

371

Simplified scenario for manned Mars missions  

Microsoft Academic Search

We propose a simplified but efficient scenario for a manned Mars mission. The idea is to select a crew of only 2 astronauts and to bring in situ resource utilization systems in the same vehicle. For security reasons, we suggest duplicating the mission as it was proposed by Von Braun. At very moment of the journey, the two vehicles would

Jean Marc Salotti

2011-01-01

372

Participatory scenario analysis for integrated regional modelling  

Microsoft Academic Search

Integrated numerical modelling, scenario analysis and participatory approaches have become common approaches to investigate possible future regional development in sustainability research. But in accordance with disciplinary backgrounds, the literature on specific case studies shows still great biases towards either qualitative social science or the numerical modelling perspective. By presenting a comprehensive case study on changes in agriculture for the Alpine

Ariane Walz; Corina Lardelli; Heiko Behrendt; Adrienne Grêt-Regamey; Corinne Lundström; Susanne Kytzia; Peter Bebi

2007-01-01

373

Developmental scenario analysis of Smalltalk programming  

Microsoft Academic Search

In order to understand long-term learning and the acquisition of expertise, human-computer interaction needs to take a developmental turn. Adopting a developmental approach means using longitudinal research methods, building developmental sequence models of the acquisition of expertise, and analyzing tasks as scenarios specific to developmental levels. The psychology of programming seems particularly amenable to a developmental approach because of the

Robert L. Campbell

1990-01-01

374

Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture  

Microsoft Academic Search

Software architecture is one of the most important tools for designing and un- derstanding a system, whether that system is in preliminary design, active deployment, or maintenance. Scenarios are important tools for exercising an architecture in order to gain information about a system's fitness with respect to a set of desired quality attributes. This paper presents an experiential case study

Rick Kazman; Gregory D. Abowd; Paul C. Clements

1996-01-01

375

How scenarios support strategic early warning processes  

Microsoft Academic Search

To survive and grow in an era of uncertainty, companies should strive not only for a single visionary view, which most likely corresponds with their expectations, but instead they should try to acquire multiple views that describe the whole ”window of opportunities”. The development of external market scenarios to assess current strategies is the usual way of coping with these

Alexander Fink; Andreas Siebe; Jens-Peter Kuhle

2004-01-01

376

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building  

Microsoft Academic Search

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models

E. D. Arthur; D. Beller; G. H. Canavan; R. A. Krakowski; P. Peterson; R. L. Wagner

1999-01-01

377

Integrated plasma controls for steady state scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

In recent campaigns, Tore Supra has focused its efforts on the physics optimisation and operation of stationary scenarios with high input power (up to 8 MW), duration of more than 60 s and vanishing loop voltage (up to 80% of non-inductive current). For physics integration, Tore Supra has been equipped with a large number of new real time sensors. The

E. Joffrin; O. Barana; D. Mazon; P. Moreau; F. Turco; J. F. Artaud; V. Basiuk; C. Bourdelle; S. Brémond; J. Bucalossi; F. Clairet; L. Colas; Y. Corre; R. Dumont; A. Ekedahl; G. Giruzzi; M. Goniche; F. Imbeaux; F. Kazarian; L. Laborde; P. Monier-Garbet; P. Maget; B. Pégourié; Y. Peysson; F. Rimini; F. Saint-Laurent; E. Tsitrone

2007-01-01

378

Pesticide Exposure and Related Illness: A Report on Existing Baseline Data in Region 10.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The report is part of National Network for Environmental Management Studies under the auspices of the Office of Cooperative Environmental Management of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA Region 10's efforts to assess existing baseline exposure ...

C. Pilling

1989-01-01

379

A statistical volcanic forcing scenario generator for climate simulations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The climate system is continuously affected by forcings that add to its inherent variability. Recently, the dominant influence shifted from mostly natural factors to the rapidly increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing. Climate change simulations for the 21st and 22nd centuries then employ possible story lines of human socio-economic development with associated radiative forcing that exclusively explore the potential human influence on climate. None of the scenarios, however, include natural factors that dominated climate variations prior to the large anthropogenic emissions. This leads to a discontinuity at the transition between the historical and the future projection period. Similarly, studies of transient climate variations before the last 1-2 millennia generally use only the well-known, slowly varying forcings such as orbital or greenhouse forcing derived from ice cores. While past solar irradiance variations can be reasonably estimated from cosmogenic isotope data, no well-dated, high-resolution information exists before about A.D. 500 that would allow for an implementation of forcing from explosive volcanism. Here, we present a statistical approach to generate statistically (and geophysically) realistic scenarios of volcanic forcing that are based on the properties of the longest available volcanic forcing series derived from ice cores. The resulting scenarios do not carry direct temporally predictive or hindcast capabilities, but they allow for an appropriate evaluation of natural uncertainty on various timescales. These series can be applied to ensure a seamless integration of an important natural forcing factor for climate change simulations of periods where such forcing is not available.

Ammann, C. M.; Naveau, P.

2010-03-01

380

Parametric Studies for Scenario Earthquakes: Site Effects and Differential Motion  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In presence of strong lateral heterogeneities, the generation of local surface waves and local resonance can give rise to a complicated pattern in the spatial groundshaking scenario. For any object of the built environment with dimensions greater than the characteristic length of the ground motion, different parts of its foundations can experience severe non-synchronous seismic input. In order to perform an accurate estimate of the site effects, and of differential motion, in realistic geometries, it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of reach of stochastic models. Synthetic signals, to be used as seismic input in a subsequent engineering analysis, e.g. for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or for the estimation of differential motion, can be produced at a very low cost/benefit ratio. We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation following the guidelines of the UNESCO IUGS IGCP Project 414 "Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas" and show the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the EC project "Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges" (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. >http://www.ictp.trieste.it/www_users/sand/projects.html

Panza, G. F.; Panza, G. F.; Romanelli, F.

2001-12-01

381

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

382

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory, vehicles, and individuals, a detailed geodatabase of the existing stock of elements and values was established on a single object level. Therefore, the localized and functional differentiated stock of elements was assessed monetarily on the basis of derived representative mean insurance values. Thus, well known difference factors between the analysis of the stock of elements and values on local and on regional scale could be reduced considerably. The spatial join of the results of the hazard analysis with the stock of elements and values enables the identification and quantification of the elements at risk and their corresponding damage potential. Thereupon, Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) were analysed under consideration of different vulnerability approaches which describe the individual element's specific susceptibility. This results in scenario-specific ranges of ESL rather than in single values. The exposure analysis of the general endangerment in Tyrol identifies (i) 105 330 individuals, (ii) 20 272 buildings and 50 157 dwellings with a corresponding damage potential of approx. EUR 20 bn. and (iii) 62 494 vehicles with a corresponding damage potential of EUR 1 bn. Depending on the individual extreme event scenarios, the ESL solely to buildings and inventory vary between EUR 0.9-1.3 bn. for the scenario with the least ESL and EUR 2.2-2.5 bn. for the most serious scenarios. The correlation of the private property losses to buildings and inventory with further direct tangible loss categories on the basis of investigation after the event in 2005, results in potential direct tangible ESL of up to EUR 7.6 bn. Apart from the specific study results a general finding shows that beside the further development of modelling capabilities and scenario concepts, the key to considerably decrease uncertainties of integral flood risk analyses is the development and implementation of more precise methods. These are to determine the stock of elements and values and to evaluate the vulnerability or susceptibility of affected structures to certain flood characteristics more dif

Huttenlau, M.; Stötter, J.; Stiefelmeyer, H.

2010-12-01

383

Optimal management design of a pump and treat system at the industrial complex in Korea  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The optimization of the management design using a pump and treat system for the remediation of contaminated groundwater was performed for an industrial complex site in Korea. The main contaminants of groundwater in the site are trichloroethylene (TCE) and other solvents. The pump and treat system was selected as a remediation technique, with a genetic algorithm selected as the optimization technique. MODFLOW, MT3D and RT3D were used to simulate groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Various scenarios were tested to obtain a cost effective remediation strategy. The cost effectiveness was determined by the total cost, including the installation cost of pumping wells and the operational cost of the pump and treat system. Scenario 1 involved the removal of TCE from the entire contaminated area using pre-existing candidate pumping wells and additional candidate wells. Scenario 2 involved the simultaneous removals of TCE and other solvents from the entire contaminated area. Scenario 3 entailed containing the TCE within a compliance line, with another remediation technique applied to the rest of the contaminated area to reduce the total remediation cost. The optimal management design of scenario 3 was selected as the most cost effective remediation strategy. This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "The GAIA Project(173-092-010)".

Park, Y.

2011-12-01

384

Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

Paši?ko, Robert; Stani?, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

2010-05-01

385

Scenario workshops: A useful method for participatory water resources planning?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This article reports on a scenario workshop (SW) for water resources management at the island of Naxos, Greece. The workshop was part of a European research project studying the advantages and limitations of different participatory methods in the context of the Water Framework Directive. It involved policy makers, scientists, business representatives, and citizens from different parts of the island. On the first day, participants worked to envision a sustainable development future for the island and its water resources. Discussion was inspired by four alternative water development scenarios prepared by the organizers. Participants' vision statements emphasized a diversified development path and balanced water solutions. On the second day, participants worked to plan the actions needed to realize their common vision. The SW turned out to be a good method to initiate a multipartner dialogue, to include new stakeholders in the water policy debate, and to a certain extent, to promote learning between participants. On the other hand, it did not appear well suited to resolve conflicts and aid decisions in the face of scientific complexity and uncertainty. SW seems to be a good method for the "upstream," preparatory, capacity-building tasks of a planning process but not for the production of substantive decision outputs such as consensual agreements or action plans. The Naxos experiment also raised the centrality of framing, participant selection, and facilitation in participatory processes.

Hatzilacou, Dionyssia; Kallis, Giorgos; Mexa, Alexandra; Coccosis, Harris; Svoronou, Eleni

2007-06-01

386

A guide to wound managment in palliative care.  

PubMed

Wound management in palliative patients is often a very challenging area of care. There are many unique issues that can combine to produce complicated wound management scenarios, including the types of wounds and wound symptoms most commonly affecting palliative care patients, as well as the presence of concurrent disease and associated treatment. Problems exist with the availability of suitable dressings and balancing life expectancy with the goals of wound care. A significant, and possibly under-recognized, issue is the emotional and social distress experienced by these patients, which can be directly attributed to their wound. These problems must all be recognized and addressed in order to manage wounds effectively in this patient population. This article aims to explore these issues and offer advice on the management of wound-related symptoms, with the ultimate goal of improving patients' quality of life. PMID:16471044

Naylor, Wayne A

2005-11-01

387

Evaluations of existing waste recycling methods: A Hong Kong study  

Microsoft Academic Search

Environmental problems have been considered as a serious situation in Hong Kong construction. Waste management is pressing harder with the alarming signal warning the industry. Reuse, recycling and reducing the wastes are considered as the only methods to recover the wastes generated; however, the implementations still have much room for improvement. In order to ameliorate the existing situations, evaluations of

Vivian W. Y. Tam; C. M. Tam

2006-01-01

388

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory  

SciTech Connect

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

NONE

1995-08-01

389

Decision support systems for flood scenario elicitation and hazard mapping  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Improved management of flood hazards in mountain catchments entails the investigation of large woody debris transport, their impact in terms of bridge clogging, and the combined effect of these phenomena with high flows in mountain rivers. Moreover, the effects of woody debris may combine with those of possible levee failure in the valley bottoms. The contribution reviews the state of the art of models and methods for the characterization of both aspects, and illustrates a blueprint of a decision support system where information on woody debris recruitment, transport capacity of the stream network, cloggability of hydraulic structures and levees are combined with hydrological information to identify the most appropriate scenarios one should consider for precautionary and realistic flood hazard assessment. The decision support system is exemplified with reference to the case study of South Tyrol, Italy.

Pistocchi, Alberto

2013-04-01

390

River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.  

PubMed

This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. PMID:22275619

Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

2011-01-01

391

Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges.  

PubMed

Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices. PMID:23563817

Romero, Gustavo Adolfo Sierra

392

Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

Antunes, A.

2013-04-01

393

Modeling Ambient Background in Complex Detection Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

Radiation detection instrumentation is being widely deployed as a countermeasure against the movement and use of radiological dispersal devices and nuclear weapons. Accurate ambient background modeling is critical for accurate simulation of detection scenarios of interest; these background source terms influence minimum detectable limits and are thus a significant factor in overall system performance. Described below are the methods used to characterize ambient background source terms in the at-sea maritime cargo container environment, how statistical distributions on those source terms are defined, and how the resulting radiation fields are calibrated using available measurement data from aboard large ocean-going ships. Although the maritime environment is the demonstration case study, these methods are broadly applicable to modeling of all complex detection scenarios.

Kiff, Scott D.; Smith, Leon E.; Jarman, Kenneth D.

2008-08-01

394

Tethered Capturing Scenarios in Low Earth Orbit  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To-date, a few actuation methods have been presented which enable zero differential velocity rendezvous for the tip of a space tether and a payload. Some researchers in the field have also investigated the futuristic, ambitious, tethered capturing scenarios for interplanetary transfers. This paper investigates some new and beneficial tethered space capturing scenarios, which can be implemented for near-term space mass/momentum transfer missions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), by using currently available technology and resources. Zero differential velocity capture could be achieved by initiating a swinging motion in the tether before rendezvous. The lack of significant damping forces in space, means the swinging motion continues after capture, which is extremely undesirable for the retrieval phase and poses a serious danger for the platform as the payload approaches to it. Although exploiting space propulsion on the capturing device at the tip of the tether could stop the swinging motion of the tether directly after the capture, another alternative presented in this paper is to use the space propulsion to boost the payload to the same orbit as the platform. This has the benefit of dramatically reducing fuel consumption and accomplishment of the retrieval phase with low risk of impact to the platform. The numerical methods utilized in the dynamic simulation have been used to evaluate the efficiency of the tethered capturing scenarios mentioned above in comparison to the direct space capture and ideal Hohmann orbit transfer. The payload mass addition to the tip of the elastic tether at capture causes a longitudinal vibration mode (Bobbing mode) in the tether. Since the structural damping in the tether is negligible, a precise length rate/tension control could be used to dampen this mode in the first semi-period, demolishing any subsequent tension peak. This is a new mathematical non-linear control scheme, which is described for tension mitigation and damping of Bobbing mode vibration in the tether directly after capture. Another beneficial capturing scenario is also studied in which the space debris could be captured by a capturing bag at the tip of the swinging tether and would be released in the backward phase of the swing. This results in reduction of the debris' momentum and guidance of the debris directly to the earth's atmosphere via a ballistic trajectory. Small to medium size, non- controllable debris flying in LEO orbits could be burned up in the Earth's atmosphere while part of their momentum could boost the ISS in this post-capture scenario. Two different counter recoiling control schemes are introduced for this scenario, which can prevent the elastic tether from recoiling back toward the platform after releasing its payload. These controllers work based on changing the length of the tether and controlling the tension and do not involve any thrusters as the actuators. The research presented in this paper can significantly assist in development and implementation of feasible tethered mass/momentum transfer space missions in near term, by introducing new and beneficial tethered space capturing scenarios using currently available technology and resources such as the International Space Station (ISS) as platform. The paper is focused on development of new concepts for post-capture and post-release tether control schemes required for these scenarios.

Keramati Nigjeh, Behzad; Trivailo, Pavel; Blanksby, Chris

395

Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.  

PubMed

Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario. PMID:19257499

Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

2009-02-05

396

Revisiting light neutralino scenarios in the MSSM  

SciTech Connect

We revisit the case of a light neutralino lightest supersymmetric particle in the framework of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. We consider a model with 11 free parameters. We show that all scenarios where the annihilation of light neutralinos rely mainly on the exchange of a light pseudoscalar are excluded by direct detection searches and by Fermi measurements of the {gamma}-flux from dwarf spheroidal galaxies. On the other hand, we find scenarios with light sleptons that satisfy all collider and astroparticle physics constraints. In this case, the lower limit on the lightest supersymmetric particle mass is 12.6 GeV. We discuss briefly how the parameter space of the model could be further probed at the LHC.

Albornoz Vasquez, Daniel; Belanger, Genevieve [LAPTH, U. de Savoie, CNRS, BP 110, 74941 Annecy-Le-Vieux (France); Boehm, Celine [LAPTH, U. de Savoie, CNRS, BP 110, 74941 Annecy-Le-Vieux (France); IPPP, Ogden centre, Durham University (United Kingdom)

2011-11-01

397

Septage Management.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Pumping of septage creates the necessity to dispose of this highly offensive sludge in a safe, cost-effective and convenient manner. Many technological alternatives exist for the proper management of septage. This report provides an introduction and compa...

1995-01-01

398

ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS  

SciTech Connect

During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

2000-11-01

399

Using schematic scenarios to understand user needs  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenan'os are narrative descriptions of interactions between users and proposed Tstems. The concreteness qf scenan'os helps users and designers develop a shared understanding of the proposed .ystem 's jiinctionali~; but concreteness leads to a potentially unbounded number of scenan'os for a system. To help designers develop a limited set of salient scenarios, we propose a schema similar to story schemata.

Colin Potts

1995-01-01

400

Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally 4-dimensional; Universe is naturally flat; cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; underlying physics is based

Grigory Volovik; L. D. Landau

2008-01-01

401

Quintom scenario with mixed kinetic terms  

SciTech Connect

We examine an extension of the quintom scenario of dark energy, in which a canonical scalar field and a phantom field are coupled through a kinetic interaction. We perform a phase-space analysis and show that the kinetic coupling gives rise to novel cosmological behavior. In particular, we obtain both quintessence-like and phantomlike late-time solutions, as well as solutions that cross the phantom divide during the evolution of the Universe.

Saridakis, Emmanuel N. [College of Mathematics and Physics, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Weller, Joel M. [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

2010-06-15

402

Low-carbon society scenarios for India  

Microsoft Academic Search

Low-carbon society scenarios visualize social, economic and technological transitions through which societies respond to climate change. This article assesses two paradigms for transiting to a low-carbon future in India. An integrated modelling framework is used for delineating and assessing the alternative development pathways having equal cumulative CO2 emissions during the first half of the 21st century. The first pathway assumes

P. R. SHUKLA; SUBASH DHAR; DIPTIRANJAN MAHAPATRA

2008-01-01

403

Startup scenarios in high-power gyrotrons  

Microsoft Academic Search

To realize continuous-wave (CW) operation of millimeter-wave gyrotrons at megawatt (MW)-power levels, these devices must operate in very high-order modes. To excite such an operating mode and to drive it into the regime of MW-level operation with high efficiency requires careful consideration of the startup scenario through which the operating parameters of the device are brought to their nominal values.

Gregory S. Nusinovich; Oleksandr V. Sinitsyn; Leonid Velikovich; Muralidhar Yeddulla; Thomas M. Antonsen; Alexander N. Vlasov; Stephen R. Cauffman; Kevin Felch

2004-01-01

404

Assessment of a French scenario with the INPRO methodology  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents the French contribution to the Joint Study of the IAEA International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). It concerns the application of the INPRO methodology to a French scenario, on the transition from present LWRs to EPRs in a first phase and to 4. generation fast reactors in a second phase during the 21. century. The scenario also considers the renewal of the present fuel cycle facilities by the third and the fourth generation ones. Present practice of plutonium recycling in PWR is replaced by the middle of the century by a global recycling of actinides, uranium, plutonium and minor actinides in fast reactors. The status and the evolution of the INPRO criteria and the corresponding indicators during the studied period are analyzed for each of the six considered areas: economics, safety, environment, waste management, proliferation resistance and infrastructure. Improvements on economic and safety are expected for both the EPR and the 4. generation systems having these improvements among their basic goals. The use of fast reactors and global recycling of actinides leads to a significant improvement on environment indicators and in particular on the natural resources utilization. The envisaged waste management policy results in significant reductions on mass, thermal loads and radiotoxicity of the final waste which only contains fission products. The use of fuels that do not relay on enriched uranium and separated plutonium increases the proliferation resistance characteristics of the future fuel cycle. The paper summarizes also some recommendations on the data, codes and methods used to support the continuous improvement of the INPRO methodology and help future assessors. (authors)

Vasile, A.; Fiorini, G.L. [CEA Cadarache, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance Cedex (France); Cazalet, J.; Linet, F.L.; Moulin, V. [CEA Saclay CEA Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Greneche, D. [AREVA - Tour AREVA - F - 92084 Paris La Defense Cedex (France)

2006-07-01

405

Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing with economic and regulatory influences differently from other sources. The shifting stock of vessels from new-builds serving primary markets in one region to aging vessel technologies serving secondary markets produces substantial differences in future activity projections. This is compounded by the emissions differences between vessels on liner schedules and ships with similar technologies operating on charter or spot-market bases. Different rates of change drive growth among vessel types differently, so regional pattern shifts will occur, and need to be forecast or depicted in scenarios. Regulatory pathways are emerging with less clarity, but affect regional marine inputs. Scientists who measure emissions need to engage engineering principles of combustion, economics principles of supply and demand, and policy inputs to produce inventories that are more coherent, and more useful to the emerging purposes. Moreover, advanced studies (e.g., inverse modeling, source attribution, and control scenario validation) require design of “closure experiments”, where modeling of inventory measurements and modeled ambient impacts is corroborated and reconciled with field stack measurements and field observation campaigns. The most recent shipping inventories and scenarios are now providing details that recognize and address these issues.

Corbett, J. J.

2010-12-01

406

Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.

García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

2011-04-01

407

Management accounting and corporate management: insights into multinational hotel companies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to provide insights into the links between managerial accounting, as a tool for monitoring and governing multinational hotel companies, and corporate management approaches. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The paper builds upon an extensive survey of general managers previously published by the authors, followed up with interviews and an in-depth analysis of different management scenarios

Marco Mongiello; Peter Harris

2006-01-01

408

Scenario approach for assessing the utility of dispersal information in decision support for aerially spread plant pathogens, applied to Phytophthora infestans.  

PubMed

Opportunities exist to improve decision support systems through the use of dispersal information gained from epidemiological research. However, dispersal and demographic information is often fragmentary in plant pathology, and this uncertainty creates a risk of inappropriate action whenever such information is used as a basis for decision making. In this article, a scenario-based simulation approach is used to evaluate crop and economic risks and benefits in the use of dispersal information for decision making using the potato late blight pathosystem (Phytophthora infestans-Solanum tuberosum) as a case study. A recently validated spatiotemporal potato late blight model was coupled to submodels for crop growth, tuber dry matter production, and fungicide efficacy. The yield response of a range of management scenarios to a single influx of primary inoculum (the initial spore load) was calculated. Damage curves (relative yield loss versus initial spore load) from a range of combinations of varietal susceptibility and fungicide treatments were used to classify the various management scenarios as either sensitive to initial spore load or tolerant to initial spore load, thus identifying where a high degree of accuracy would be required in dispersal information for appropriate decision making, and where a greater degree of uncertainty could be tolerated. General epidemics, resulting from spatially homogeneous initial spore loads, responded more strongly to the size of the initial spore load than focal epidemics, resulting from an initial spot infection. Susceptible cultivars responded with sizeable yield losses even at low levels of initial spore load, regardless of the fungicide management regime used. These results indicated that, for susceptible cultivars (late cultivars in particular), the degree of accuracy that would be required in dispersal information for appropriate decision making is unlikely to be practically attainable. The results also indicated that, contrary to "folk wisdom," spore loads of a few hundred spores per square meter do not lead to appreciable crop loss in resistant cultivars and are therefore acceptable. We conclude that scope exists for including dispersal information in decision making for potato late blight with resistant potato cultivars but not for susceptible cultivars. The modeling framework used in this study can be extended to investigate the scope for inclusion of dispersal information in decision support for other aerially transmitted pathogens. PMID:19522587

Skelsey, P; Rossing, W A H; Kessel, G J T; van der Werf, W

2009-07-01

409

Some Methods for Scenario Analysis in Defence Strategic Planning.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Scenarios are an important tool in the strategic planning process, and are increasingly used in both the Defence and business world. This paper describes some potentially useful scenario analysis methods for systematically selecting and developing future ...

M. Dunn M. Nguyen

2009-01-01

410

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...Alternative release scenario analysis. 68.28 Section 68...PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.28 Alternative release scenario analysis. (a) The number...RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis Guidance or any...

2013-07-01

411

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

... 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

2013-01-01

412

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES  

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

413

The Value of Scenario Development in Environmental and Socio-economic Policy Applications  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Increasing scarcity, growing demand, and a burdened water supply have generated concerns about the sustainability of the southwest's regional water infrastructure. This necessitates the adoption of improved water management practices and policies better suited to contemporary water resource dilemmas. Scenarios introduce an innovative aspect to strategic long-term planning that is currently absent from current decision- making and resource management activities. For the purpose of assessing future water resources management and sustainability needs within the region, the formal approach to scenario development adopted by scientists and researchers at the University of Arizona's SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) center is adopted. Through workshops and meetings with regional and state stakeholders, several dominant themes of interest for water resources management emerged. A historical analysis of several key variables associated with these major themes provided insight on the future uncertainty in projections and assumptions adopted in early examples of future planning in the southwest. Analysis of these key variables indicates that historical assumptions and projections in the dimensions of the environment, climate, and socio-economics lacked the dynamic planning foresight that tools such as scenarios can provide.

Mahmoud, M. I.; Gupta, H. V.

2007-12-01

414

Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario  

SciTech Connect

Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2011-01-25

415

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

416

TMJ imaging by CBCT: Current scenario  

PubMed Central

Radiographic examination forms an integral component of the clinical assessment routine in patients with temporomandibular joint disorders (TMJ). There are several imaging modalities to visualize the TMJ. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a developing technique that is being increasingly used in dentomaxillofacial imaging due to its relatively low-dose high-spatial-resolution characteristics. Research in TMJ imaging has been greatly inspired by the advent of CBCT. In this paper we aim to discuss the present scenario of the role of CBCT in TMJ imaging.

Krishnamoorthy, Bhuvana; Mamatha, NS; Kumar, Vinod AR

2013-01-01

417

Rao and Wald Tests for Nonhomogeneous Scenarios  

PubMed Central

In this paper, we focus on the design of adaptive receivers for nonhomogeneous scenarios. More precisely, at the design stage we assume a mismatch between the covariance matrix of the noise in the cell under test and that of secondary data. Under the above assumption, we show that the Wald test is the adaptive matched filter, while the Rao test coincides with the receiver obtained by using the Rao test design criterion in homogeneous environment, hence providing a theoretical explanation of the enhanced selectivity of this receiver.

Hao, Chengpeng; Orlando, Danilo; Hou, Chaohuan

2012-01-01

418

Dynamic stochastic optimization models for air traffic flow management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This dissertation presents dynamic stochastic optimization models for Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) that enables decisions to adapt to new information on evolving capacities of National Airspace System (NAS) resources. Uncertainty is represented by a set of capacity scenarios, each depicting a particular time-varying capacity profile of NAS resources. We use the concept of a scenario tree in which multiple scenarios are possible initially. Scenarios are eliminated as possibilities in a succession of branching points, until the specific scenario that will be realized on a particular day is known. Thus the scenario tree branching provides updated information on evolving scenarios, and allows ATFM decisions to be re-addressed and revised. First, we propose a dynamic stochastic model for a single airport ground holding problem (SAGHP) that can be used for planning Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) when there is uncertainty about future airport arrival capacities. Ground delays of non-departed flights can be revised based on updated information from scenario tree branching. The problem is formulated so that a wide range of objective functions, including non-linear delay cost functions and functions that reflect equity concerns can be optimized. Furthermore, the model improves on existing practice by ensuring efficient use of available capacity without necessarily exempting long-haul flights. Following this, we present a methodology and optimization models that can be used for decentralized decision making by individual airlines in the GDP planning process, using the solutions from the stochastic dynamic SAGHP. Airlines are allowed to perform cancellations, and re-allocate slots to remaining flights by substitutions. We also present an optimization model that can be used by the FAA, after the airlines perform cancellation and substitutions, to re-utilize vacant arrival slots that are created due to cancellations. Finally, we present three stochastic integer programming models for managing inbound air traffic flow of an airport, when there is adverse weather impacting the arrival capacity of the airport along with its arrival fixes. These are the first models, for optimizing ATFM decisions, which address uncertainty of future capacities of multiple NAS resources.

Mukherjee, Avijit

419

Three scenarios for electric and hybrid vehicle commercialization  

Microsoft Academic Search

Three electric and hybrid vehicle (EHV) market-penetration scenarios are developed for 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The first scenario is intended to maximize the substitution of electricity for gasoline in the 101 metropolitan areas of the US that are nonattainment areas for ozone; by 2010, 12 million EHVs are projected to be operating in those areas. The second scenario focuses

M. J. Bernard; M. K. Singh; K. Heitner

1990-01-01

420

Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

2012-01-01

421

Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit

Y. Liu; M. Mahmoud; H. Hartmann; S. Stewart; T. Wagener; D. Semmens; R. Stewart; H. Gupta; D. Dominguez; D. Hulse; R. Letcher; B. Rashleigh; C. Smith; J. Ticehurst; M. Twery; H. van Delden; D. White

2008-01-01

422

Formal Scenario Development For Environmental Impact Assessment Studies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and\\/or implicit assumptions

Yuqiong Liu; Mohammed Mahmoud; Holly Hartmann; Steven Stewart; Thorsten Wagener; Darius Semmens; Robert Stewart; Hoshin Gupta; Damian Dominguez; David Hulse; Rebecca Letcher; Brenda Rashleigh; Court Smith; Jenifer Ticehurst; Mark Twery; Hedwig van Delden; Ruth Waldick; Denis White; Larry Winter

423

Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development for Strategic Decision Support  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most un- certain and important driving forces afiecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack valida- tion, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors, activities and resources. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model for scenario development

Maarten Mensonides; Bob Huisman; Virginia Dignum

2006-01-01

424

Using Scenario Planning in Public Health: Anticipating Alternative Futures  

Microsoft Academic Search

Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department’s desire to address

Jennifer A. Neiner; Elizabeth H. Howze; Mary L. Greaney

2004-01-01

425

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia  

Microsoft Academic Search

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenario considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario

C. Rachmatullah; Lu Aye; R. J. Fuller

2007-01-01

426

The future of the red metal—scenario analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

A regional copper scenario model has been developed from the perspective of the generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the four world regions: OECD90, ASIA, REF, and ALM. A set of three scenarios: Tech World, Green World, and Trend World, each representing the significant driving forces influencing population and economic growth, technological change

Amit Kapur

2005-01-01

427

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING IN KAZAKHSTAN  

Microsoft Academic Search

The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO2 concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2×

Olga V. Pilifosova; Irina B. Eserkepova; Svetlana A. Dolgih

1997-01-01

428

Goal Decomposition and Scenario Analysis in Business Process Reengineering  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper presents experiences in applying the goal decomposition and scenario analysis model in the context of Business Process Reengineering (BPR). The relationships of goals, scenarios, as well as the understanding and description of business processes are discussed. Different methods of goal refinement, and the application of scenarios to support this process of refining goals and roles are reviewed. A

Annie I. Antón; W. Michael Mccracken; Colin Potts I

1994-01-01

429

Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals  

Microsoft Academic Search

Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of

Veronika Dornburg; Barbara G. Hermann; Martin K. Patel

2008-01-01

430

Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951-2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961-2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950-2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

Wegehenkel, M.; Heinrich, U.; Jochheim, H.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Röber, B.

2010-08-01

431

Operating Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change Scenarios  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Population and industrial growth has resulted in intense demands on the quantity and quality of water resources worldwide. Moreover, climate change/variability is making a growing percentage of the earth's population vulnerable to extreme weather events (drought and flood). The 1996 Saguenay flood, 1997 Red River flood, the 1998 ice storm, and recent droughts in prairies are few examples of extreme weather events in Canada. Rising economic prosperity, growth in urban population, aging infrastructure, and a changing climate are increasing the vulnerability of Canadians to even more serious impacts. This growing threat can seriously undermine the social and economic viability of the country. Our ability to understand the impacts of climate change/variability on water quantity, quality, and its distribution in time and space can prepare us for sustainable management of this precious resource. The sustainability of water resources, over the medium to long-term, is critically dependent on the ability to manage (plan and operate) water resource systems under a more variable and perhaps warmer future climate. Studying the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources is complex and challenging. It is further complicated by the fact that impacts vary with time and are different at different locations. This study deals with the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in a portion of the Red River Basin in Canada, both in terms of change in quantity and spatial-temporal distribution. A System Dynamics model is developed to describe the operation of the Shellmouth Reservoir located on the Red River in Canada. The climate data from Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1 is used. The spatial system dynamics approach, based on distributed parameter control theory, is used to model the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in time and space. A decision support system is developed to help reservoir operators and decision makers in sustainable management of water resources. The decision support system helps in analyzing the impacts of different reservoir operation scenarios, under changing climate conditions, by exploring multiple- what-if- scenarios. Canadian study areas and data sets are used for the research. However, the proposed approach provides a general framework that can be used in other parts of the world.

Ahmad, S.

2002-12-01

432

Estimation of the Transportation Risks for the Spent Fuel in Korea for Various Transportation Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. From the results of this study, we found that these four transportation scenarios for spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future. (authors)

Jongtae, Jeong; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Yuseong, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2008-07-01

433

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many

Afzal S. Siddiqui; Chris Marnay

2006-01-01

434

Research on ODRL Connecting with Application Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Digital right management can be used on digital copyright protection, access to control, trust management and other areas. Right expression language is an important component of DRM system. The purpose of this paper is to research the application of ODRL. It gives the introduction of development of right expression language firstly, and describes in detail the development process of ODRL

Yi Zhang; Xiaoguang Wei; Shu Zhao

2008-01-01

435

Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: case study of Tianjin, China.  

PubMed

The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management have been highlighted in China, due to the continually increasing amount of MSW being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. Of particular interest is greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, aided by the Kyoto Mechanisms. China is an important case study for this global issue; however, an analysis of the entire life cycle of MSW management on GHG emissions is not available for China. This study evaluates the current and possible patterns of MSW management with regard to GHG emissions, using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on the Tianjin case. We assess the baseline scenario, reflecting the existing MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, five exploring waste treatment technology innovations and one exploring integrated MSW management, to quantitatively predict potentials of GHG mitigation for Tianjin. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the influence of landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency, recycling rate and methodological choice, especially allocation, on the outcomes. The results show GHG emissions from Tianjin's MSW management system amount to 467.34 Mg CO2 eq. per year, based on the treatment of MSW collected in the central districts in 2006, and the key issue is LFG released. The integrated MSW management scenario, combining different improvement options, shows the highest GHG mitigation potential. Given the limited financial support and the current waste management practice in Tianjin, LFG utilization scenario would be the preferred choice. The sensitivity analysis of recycling rate shows an approximately linear relation of inverse proportion between recycling rate and total GHG emissions. Kitchen waste composting makes a considerable contribution to total GHG emissions reduction. Allocation choices result in differences in total quantitative outcomes, but preference orders and contributions analysis are found to be robust, suggesting LCA can support decision making. PMID:19068268

Zhao, Wei; van der Voet, Ester; Zhang, Yufeng; Huppes, Gjalt

2008-12-09

436

Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30-40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

Ornetzeder, Michael; Rohracher, Harald; Wächter, Petra

2012-10-01

437

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)  

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Progra...

438

The Seismic Risk Explorer - A Scenario Tool for Assessing Seismic Risk  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Seismic Risk Explorer, an extension for ArcGIS Desktop developed by cedim AG, is a tool for computing the seismic risk, i.e. damage on residential buildings and thereby caused monetary losses for earthquake scenarios. It is based on the research results of the CEDIM (Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology) research center, located at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) in Potsdam. With this software tool seismic scenarios can be simulated for a given magnitude, depths and location. The seismic intensity, the resulting mean damage ratio for residential buildings and the seismic risk, expressed as the monetary loss caused by an earthquake can be computed downscaled to communities, postcode areas or even single buildings. Interested end-users are especially insurance companies, but also public authorities which may use the tool for risk management issues.

Liesch, T.; Stempniewski, L.

2009-04-01

439

Supporting Network Management through Declaratively Specified Data Visualizations  

Microsoft Academic Search

The complexity of managing and controlling large heterogeneous networks requires the availabilityof management stations equipped with sophisticated tools. A fundamental feature of anadvanced network management station is the capability to present to the human manager acomprehensible picture of the relevant scenarios. The tools present at the station must allowthe manager specify management functionalities in a graceful manner. But the overwhelmingvolume

Mariano P. Consens; Masum Z. Hasan

1993-01-01

440

Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program.  

PubMed

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p(i) levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help the decision makers justify and/or adjust their waste management strategies based on their implicit knowledge and preferences. PMID:23313898

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon

2012-12-28

441

OpenScenario: A Flexible Integrated Environment to Develop Educational Activities Based on Pedagogical Scenarios  

Microsoft Academic Search

Creating technology enhanced collaborative learning activities remains a difficult task. Despite the very serious and costly efforts deployed during the past years, teachers or trainers have not yet fully integrated the possibilities offered by the technology probably because the tools provided do not match their habits and requirements. In order to contribute resolving this issue, we propose OpenScenario, an open

Jean-michel Jullien; Christian Martel; Laurence Vignollet; Maia Wentland

2009-01-01

442

Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures,\\u000a paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable\\u000a agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future\\u000a scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS)

I. A. Romanenko; V. A. Romanenkov; P. Smith; J. U. Smith; O. D. Sirotenko; N. V. Lisovoi; L. K. Shevtsova; D. I. Rukhovich; P. V. Koroleva

2007-01-01