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Sample records for management existing scenario

  1. Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hassan, M Manzurul; Ahmed, Shafiul Azam; Rahman, K Anisur; Biswas, Tarit Kanti

    2008-01-01

    Background Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of information for planning. This paper seeks to document the handling practice of waste (e.g. collection, storage, transportation and disposal) along with the types and amount of wastes generated by Health Care Establishments (HCE). A total of 60 out of the existing 68 HCE in the study areas provided us with relevant information. Methods The methodology for this paper includes empirical field observation and field-level data collection through inventory, questionnaire survey and formal and informal interviews. A structured questionnaire was designed to collect information addressing the generation of different medical wastes according to amount and sources from different HCE. A number of in-depth interviews were arranged to enhance our understanding of previous and existing management practice of medical wastes. A number of specific questions were asked of nurses, hospital managers, doctors, and cleaners to elicit their knowledge. The collected data with the questionnaire survey were analysed, mainly with simple descriptive statistics; while the qualitative mode of analysis is mainly in narrative form. Results The paper shows that the surveyed HCE generate a total of 5,562 kg/day of wastes, of which about 77.4 per cent are non-hazardous and about 22.6 per cent are hazardous. The average waste generation rate for the surveyed HCE is 1.9 kg/bed/day or 0.5 kg/patient/day. The study reveals that there is no proper, systematic management of medical waste except in a few private HCE that segregate their infectious wastes. Some cleaners were found to salvage used sharps

  2. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  3. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  4. Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.

    PubMed

    Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507

  5. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  6. Evaluating water management scenarios to support habitat management for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beerens, James M.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; McKelvy, Mark

    2016-01-01

    The endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) is endemic to south Florida and a key indicator species of marl prairie, a highly diverse freshwater community in the Florida Everglades. Maintenance and creation of suitable habitat is seen as the most important pathway to the persistence of the six existing sparrow subpopulations; however, major uncertainties remain in how to increase suitable habitat within and surrounding these subpopulations, which are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity. Currently, consistently suitable conditions for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow are only present in two of these subpopulations (B and E). The water management scenarios evaluated herein were intended to lower water levels and improve habitat conditions in subpopulation A and D, raise water levels to improve habitat conditions in subpopulations C and F, and minimize impacts to subpopulations B and E. Our objective in this analysis was to compare these scenarios utilizing a set of metrics (short- to long-time scales) that relate habitat suitability to hydrologic conditions. Although hydrologic outputs are similar across scenarios in subpopulation A, scenario R2H reaches the hydroperiod and depth suitability targets more than the other scenarios relative to ECB, while minimizing negative consequences to subpopulation E. However, although R2H hydroperiods are longer than those for ECB during the wet season in subpopulations C and F, depths during the breeding season are predicted to decrease in suitability (less than -50 cm) relative to existing conditions.

  7. Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

    2016-01-01

    Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

  8. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1. PMID:25762565

  9. Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

    PubMed

    Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

    2000-09-01

    In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces. PMID:11066387

  10. Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

    2010-12-01

    The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

  11. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

    2012-04-01

    Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

  12. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    PubMed

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153

  13. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  14. Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone

  15. Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

    PubMed

    Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented. PMID:26942525

  16. Life cycle inventory for municipal solid waste management. Part 2: MSW management scenarios and modeling.

    PubMed

    Wilson, E J

    2002-02-01

    Evaluating the environmental performance of municipal solid waste management options is a complex task. Part 1 of this study presents the municipal solid waste management program of the Pamplona Region in Spain and explores the operational, economic, and environmental factors of the program. In Part 2, alternative waste management scenarios that include the selective collection of organic material and composting are illustrated. The use of a Life Cycle Inventory model for waste management allows for the comparison of the environmental burdens of the different scenarios. This use of a Life Cycle Inventory model for solid waste management lets program managers and decision makers include energy use, final solid waste, and Greenhouse gas emissions in the decision making process. Additionally, the different management scenarios are evaluated on their ability to fulfil Pamplona regional objectives and meet European Packaging and Landfill Directive targets. PMID:12020093

  17. Facilities Management of Existing School Buildings: Two Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Building Technology, Inc., Silver Spring, MD.

    While all school districts are responsible for the management of their existing buildings, they often approach the task in different ways. This document presents two models that offer ways a school district administration, regardless of size, may introduce activities into its ongoing management process that will lead to improvements in earthquake…

  18. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  19. Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

    2016-06-01

    Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

  20. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    PubMed

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  1. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, A.; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

    PubMed Central

    Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

  3. Scenario-based decision making in water resource management: A case study in the Yellow River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Congli; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2013-04-01

    Decision making in water resource management encounters difficulties due to uncertainties about the future. Scenarios are useful to explore uncertainties and inform decision makers to take actions. Scenarios are originally used to describe the future states in the form of storylines. These are then supplemented with numerical information from model predictions and expert judgement. Probabilities are attached to scenarios to encourage the specific explanation of the assumptions and expectations behind the storylines, and communicate the possibility of each scenario. Bayesian probability offers a prior probability on the basis of available knowledge and beliefs at the presence of uncertainties, and allows for updating to the posterior probability as new evidence arises. Bayesian rules are also applicable for decision making given the existing probabilistic scenarios. Decisions can be ranked according to their performance on the utility function given each possible scenario. A case study is provided to find an optimal solution to alleviate the water stress problem in the Yellow River Delta for the next 30 years. Scenarios of water availability and water demand are developed for the planning period. In order to make decisions rationally, cost-benefit analysis is used to evaluate the performance of viable decisions given the probabilistic scenarios. Key word: Scenarios, Water Management, Uncertainty, Decision making, Bayesian approach

  4. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  5. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  6. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  7. Current Clinical Practice Scenario of Osteoporosis Management in India

    PubMed Central

    Jhaveri, Shailesh; Upashani, Tejas; Bhadauria, Jitendra; Patel, Kamlesh

    2015-01-01

    Background Various osteoporosis guidelines are available for practice. Aim To understand the current clinical practice scenario from the perspective of Indian orthopaedicians, especially about the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, approach to diagnosis and management and patient compliance patterns to long term treatment. Materials and Methods A pre-validated structured questionnaire containing questions (mostly objective, some open-ended) catering to various objectives of the study was circulated amongst orthopaedic surgeons across India by means of post/courier, after giving a brief overview of the study telephonically. Data was extracted from the completed questionnaires, and analysed using Microsoft Excel software. Results The questionnaire was filled by a total of 84 orthopaedicians throughout India. The prevalence of osteoporosis in India according to the orthopaedic surgeons was 38.4% and there was a female preponderance. Most of the respondents felt out of every 100 osteoporosis patients in India, less than 20 patients are actually diagnosed and treated for osteoporosis. The most common initial presenting feature of established osteoporosis cases was general symptoms. Most respondents preferred Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) as the initial investigation for the diagnosis of osteoporosis in a patient presenting with typical features. While most respondents preferred once-a-month oral over intravenous (IV) bisphosphonates, they agreed that IV administration had advantages such as lower gastrointestinal side effects and improved compliance. The average duration of therapy of oral bisphosphonates was the longest (27.04 months) among the other anti- osteoporosis therapies that they used. On an average, the patient compliance rate in osteoporosis management was around 64%. IV Zoledronic acid (ZA) and intranasal calcitonin were infrequently used than other anti- osteoporosis therapies. While concerns about cost and availability deterred more frequent

  8. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  9. Management of the Mediterranean Coast in Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Conte, D.; Scarascia, L.; Sanchez-Arcilla, A.; Sierra, J. P.; Mosso, C.; Hinkel, J.; Vafeidis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Model projections can provide a rich information on the hazards posed by marine storminess on coastal areas and their evolution in climate change scenarios. When addressing coastal protection issues is however necessary to consider simultaneously different factors, that are usually separately computed, such as sea level rise, storm surges and ocean waves and adopt an approach accounting for their superposition. Further, this information need to be combined with that on the vulnerability of the coastal areas, their morphology and the location of harbors and defenses. This study shows how to use multi-factor projections and geographical information to identify critical parts of the coastline and to suggest to policymaker where to invest resources at country and regional scale. Results are applied to the Mediterranean coastline. Impacts on beaches (e.g. erosion), harbors (e.g. overtopping), human settlements (e.g., flood damage) and their management through enhanced coastal defenses are discussed. This study is part of the RISES-AM project (FP7-EU-603396).

  10. Interreality in the management of psychological stress: a clinical scenario.

    PubMed

    Riva, Giuseppe; Raspelli, Simona; Pallavicini, Federica; Grassi, Alessandra; Algeri, Davide; Wiederhold, Brenda K; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    The term "psychological stress" describes a situation in which a subject perceives that environmental demands tax or exceed his or her adaptive capacity. According to the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the best validated approach covering both stress management and stress treatment is the Cognitive Behavioral (CBT) approach. We aim to design, develop and test an advanced ICT based solution for the assessment and treatment of psychological stress that is able to improve the actual CBT approach. To reach this goal we will use the "interreality" paradigm integrating assessment and treatment within a hybrid environment, that creates a bridge between the physical and virtual worlds. Our claim is that bridging virtual experiences (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and emotional regulation) with real experiences (allowing both the identification of any critical stressors and the assessment of what has been learned) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, advanced sensors and PDA/mobile phones) is the best way to address the above limitations. To illustrate the proposed concept, a clinical scenario is also presented and discussed: Paola, a 45 years old nurse, with a mother affected by progressive senile dementia. PMID:20543263

  11. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

  12. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.

    PubMed

    Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites. PMID:18262405

  13. The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

    PubMed

    Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

    2015-04-15

    Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be

  14. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  15. The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.

    PubMed

    Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

    2013-12-01

    The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

  16. Putting watershed restoration in context: alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, A H; Steel, E A; Caras, Y; Sheer, M; Olson, P; Kaje, J

    2009-01-01

    Predicting effects of habitat restoration is an important step for recovery of imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Habitat above three major hydropower dams in the Lewis River watershed, southwestern Washington, USA, will soon become accessible to anadromous fish. We used multiple models to estimate habitat conditions above dams and fish population responses. Additionally, we used scenario planning to predict how habitat and fish will respond to potential future trends in land use due to human population growth and riparian conservation policies. Finally, we developed a hypothetical management strategy (i.e., a set of prioritized restoration projects in specific locations within the watershed) as an example of how a fixed amount of restoration funds might be spent to enhance the success of reintroducing fish above dams. We then compared predicted outcomes from this new strategy to those of six previously modeled strategies. We estimated how the choice of the best management strategy might differ among alternative future scenarios. Results suggest that dam passage will provide access to large amounts of high-quality habitat that will benefit fish populations. Moreover, conservation of existing riparian areas, if implemented, has the potential to improve conditions to a much greater extent than restoration strategies examined, despite expected urban growth. We found that the relative performance of management strategies shifted when fish were allowed to migrate above dams, but less so among alternative futures examined. We discuss how predicted outcomes from these seven hypothetical management strategies could be used for developing an on-the-ground strategy to address a real management situation. PMID:19323185

  17. Tailoring Green Infrastructure Implementation Scenarios based on Stormwater Management Objectives

    EPA Science Inventory

    Green infrastructure (GI) refers to stormwater management practices that mimic nature by soaking up, storing, and controlling onsite. GI practices can contribute reckonable benefits towards meeting stormwater management objectives, such as runoff peak shaving, volume reduction, f...

  18. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  19. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  20. A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

  1. Municipal solid waste management scenarios for Attica and their greenhouse gas emission impact.

    PubMed

    Papageorgiou, Asterios; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Barton, John R; Kalogirou, Efstratios

    2009-11-01

    Disposal of municipal solid waste in sanitary landfills is still the main waste management method in the Attica region, as in most regions of Greece. Nevertheless, diversion from landfilling is being promoted by regional plans, in which the perspectives of new waste treatment technologies are being evaluated. The present study aimed to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact of different municipal solid waste treatment technologies currently under assessment in the new regional plan for Attica. These technologies are mechanical-biological treatment, mass-burn incineration and mechanical treatment and have been assessed in the context of different scenarios. The present study utilized existing methodologies and emission factors for the quantification of GHG emissions from the waste management process and found that all technologies under assessment could provide GHG emission savings. However, the performance and ranking of these technologies is strongly dependent on the existence of end markets for the waste-derived fuels produced by the mechanical-biological treatment processes. In the absence of these markets the disposal of these fuels would be necessary and thus significant GHG savings would be lost. PMID:19837710

  2. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  3. Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vajk, J. P.

    1978-01-01

    The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

  4. Teaching Conflict Management Using a Scenario-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callanan, Gerard A.; Perri, David F.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors present a framework for the teaching of conflict management in college courses. The framework describes an experiential learning approach for helping individuals understand the influence of contextual factors in the selection of conflict handling strategy. It also includes a comparison of participants' choice of style,…

  5. Design in Practice: Scenarios for Improving Management Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlenker, Lee; Chantelot, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to design in business, Design Thinking has had little impact on the quality of business school education. Building upon the foundations of long-standing critiques of management education and the potential for student-centric learning, the authors propose that the use of Design in Practice can significantly…

  6. Evaluation of Operations Scenarios for Managing the Big Creek Marsh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Ian; Rahman, Masihur; Wychreschuk, Jeremy; Lebedyk, Dan; Bolisetti, Tirupati

    2013-04-01

    Wetland management in changing climate is important for maintaining sustainable ecosystem as well as for reducing the impact of climate change on the environment as wetlands act as natural carbon sinks. The Big Creek Marsh within the Essex County is a Provincially Significant Wetland (PSW) in Ontario, Canada. The marsh is approximately 900 hectares in area and is primarily fed by streamflow from the Big Creek Watershed. The water level of this wetland has been managed by the stakeholders using a system of pumps, dykes and a controlled outlet to the Lake Erie. In order to adequately manage the Big Creek Marsh and conserve diverse aquatic plant species, Essex Region Conservation Authority (ERCA), Ontario has embarked on developing an Operations Plan to maintain desire water depths during different marsh phases, viz., Open water, Hemi and Overgrown marsh phases. The objective of the study is to evaluate the alternatives for managing water level of the Big Creek Marsh in different marsh phases. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a continuous simulation model was used to simulate streamflow entering into the marsh from the Big Creek watershed. A Water Budget (WB) model was developed for the Big Creek Marsh to facilitate in operational management of the marsh. The WB model was applied to simulate the marsh level based on operations schedules, and available weather and hydrologic data aiming to attain the target water depths for the marsh phases. This paper presents the results of simulated and target water levels, streamflow entering into the marsh, water releasing from the marsh, and water pumping into and out of the marsh under different hydrologic conditions.

  7. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

    2013-04-01

    To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the

  8. Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

    The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

  9. Sustainable Phosphorus Management in Land Applied Reclaimed Water Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinkam, G.

    2015-12-01

    Florida leads the nation in wastewater effluent/reclaimed water use, at over 700 million gallons per day, of which 75% is land applied. While these effluent waters are treated to reduce pathogen loads, phosphorus (P) concentrations can still be substantial in long term application scenarios. Currently an estimated 1.5 million kg of P are reintroduced to the landscape yearly (at effluent = 2 mg P/L), compared to only 23,000 kg that would be applied if landscapes were irrigated with ground water (at ground water = 0.03 mg P/L). Research suggests that under long term applications of P systems can reach a state at which they are no longer able to assimilate further loading, potentially resulting in landscapes that are actively leaching and eroding P rich particulate matter to receiving hydrologic systems. This can be especially relevant in Florida given the large proportion of sandy soils that contain, relatively, low physical and chemical ion exchange capacity and high hydraulic conductivity, thus increasing the potential for water quality impairment. Due to increasingly stringent surface water P concentrations allowances, and the many uncertainties regarding the long term fate and transport of P, this research seeks to determine how different soil conditions and reclaimed water loading amounts can alter P leaching profiles in Florida. Field sampling at reclaimed water sprayfield sites are used to determine the relative change in P sequestration potential using soil-phosphorus saturation capacity (SPSC) analyses and potential leaching risk is determined by soil core experimentation. The resulting information improves fundamental understanding of soil-phosphorus transport dynamics and provides insights into alternative techniques for long term environmental sustainability of reclaimed wastewater usage.

  10. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  11. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

    2015-01-01

    Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most

  12. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.

  13. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore » employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

  14. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

  15. An Ontology-Based Scenario for Teaching the Management of Health Information Systems.

    PubMed

    Jahn, Franziska; Schaaf, Michael; Kahmann, Christian; Tahar, Kais; Kücherer, Christian; Paech, Barbara; Winter, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    The terminology for the management of health information systems is characterized by complexity and polysemy which is both challenging for medical informatics students and practitioners. SNIK, an ontology of information management (IMI) in hospitals, brings together IM concepts from different literature sources. Based on SNIK, we developed a blended learning scenario to teach medical informatics students IM concepts and their relationships. In proof-of-concept teaching units, students found the use of SNIK in teaching and learning motivating and useful. In the next step, the blended learning scenario will be rolled out to an international course for medical informatics students. PMID:27577404

  16. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  17. How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

  18. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  19. Waste management and quality assurance: Reasonable co-existence?

    SciTech Connect

    Bresson, J.F.

    1989-11-01

    Implementing Chapter 3, Low-Level Waste Management, of DOE Order 5820-2, ``Radioactive Waste Management`` has created a major change in the operating philosophy of DOE`s prime contractors. So has the decision of May 1, 1987, when it was made clear that EPA has regulatory authority over DOE`s mixed waste. Suddenly two additional items became clear. First, DOE and its contractors were going to learn more about composition of low-level and low-level mixed waste than ever before. Second, low-level waste management was about to become a more focused, formal program, complete with needs for: (1) waste form identification, (2) program documentation; and (3) assurance that DOE`s waste does in fact comply with applicable requirements. The importance of the above items is clearly emphasized by the inclusion of Data Quality Objectives in the Waste Acceptance Criteria section of DOE 5820-2 Chapter 3 guidance called Data Quality Objectives, (DQO). Simply put, the purpose of the DQO is to identify the quality (and quantity) of information necessary to convince a regulator or decision maker that enough is known about DOE`s low-level and low-level mixed waste to allow safe disposal. The main objectives of the DOE and EPA shallow land burial requirements are to: (1) generate, with documented evidence, waste forms which are chemically inert and immobile, such that the waste will not tend to move about in the disposal medium; (2) select a disposal medium which would not let the wastes move about anyway; and (3) build some barriers around the wastes as emplaced in burial grounds, to provide additional assurance that buried wastes will stay in place. Compliance with these requirements must be demonstrated by quality data which describes the entire series of compliance activities.

  20. Salmon Futures: Stakeholder-driven salmon management scenarios under changing environmental conditions on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trammell, E. J.; Krupa, M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the adaptive capacity of individuals within natural resource management agencies is a key component of assessing the vulnerability of salmon to future environmental change. We seek to explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula by exploring the drivers and implications of different salmon allocation scenarios through participatory workshops with managers. We present here the initial results from the first workshop, which explores the various drivers responsible for changes in salmon allocation. Ranging from global to local, and biophysical to socioeconomic, these drivers are also linked to specific actors in the region. These complex interactions comprise the Kenai Peninsula's social-ecological system and determine its ability to react to change. Using a stakeholder-driven scenario framework, we aim to: 1) explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies in the region by exploring and exposing managers to different but logically coherent salmon allocation scenarios; 2) build stakeholder confidence in the science of environmental change on the Kenai Peninsula; and 3) develop a decision support tool that helps regional resource managers better understand their changing environment. We utilize and present the scenario framework as a platform for integrating hydrologic, landscape, and cultural change information into actionable decisions, crafted by the stakeholders, so that landscape change on the Kenai becomes more coordinated.

  1. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  2. Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celić, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgoč, Nedo; Isajlović, Igor; Marčeta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

    2014-05-01

    The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target

  3. Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

    2013-01-01

    In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

  4. Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

    2013-01-01

    In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

  5. Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate

  6. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  7. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  8. Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Complex Watershed Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, J. P.; McPhee, J.

    2007-05-01

    The Aconcagua River Basin in central Chile supplies water for over one million people, high-return agriculture, mining and hydropower industries. The Aconcagua river basin has Mediterranean/semi-arid climate, its hydrologic regime varies along its path from snow- to a rainfall-dominated, and significant stream-aquifer interaction is observed throughout the river path. A complex water market operates in the Aconcagua River Basin, where private owners hold surface and subsurface water rights independently of land ownership and/or intended use. The above yield integrated watershed management critical for the sustainability of basin operations, moreover under conditions of significant precipitation interannual variability and uncertain future climatic scenarios. In this work we propose an integrated hydrologic-operational model for the Aconcagua River in order to evaluate sustainable management scenarios under conditions of climatic uncertainty. The modeling software WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) serves as the platform for decision support, allowing the assessment of diverse scenarios of water use development and hydrologic conditions. The hydrologic component of the adopted model utilizes conceptual functions for describing the relations between different hydrologic variables. The management component relies on economic valuation for characterizing the space of efficient operational policies.

  9. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios. 2. Reservoir management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, H.; Georgakakos, A.

    2001-08-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios. The inflow forecasting options include operational forecasts, historical analog ensemble forecasts, hydrologic ensemble forecasts, GCM-conditioned hydrologic ensemble forecasts, and perfect forecasts. Reservoir management is based on either heuristic rule curves or a decision system which includes three coupled models pertinent to turbine load dispatching, short-range energy generation scheduling, and long/mid-range reservoir management. The climate scenarios are based on historical inflow realizations, potential inflow realizations generated by General Circulation Models assuming no CO 2 increase, and potential inflow realizations assuming 1% CO 2 annual increase. The study demonstrates that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures can be effective climate change coping strategies.

  10. Impact assessment of combined climate and management scenarios on groundwater resources and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candela, Lucila; von Igel, Wolf; Javier Elorza, F.; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2009-10-01

    SummaryClimate change impact on a groundwater dependent wetland and natural recharge has been investigated in the Inca-Sa Pobla coastal aquifer for the year 2025. Temperature and precipitation based on the downscaled output from a general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a groundwater model to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater. Management practices were based on changes in the volume of water extracted for agricultural and domestic purposes. Climate change impacts on the hydrogeological system were based on downscaled HadCM3 outputs for future medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) greenhouse gas scenarios developed by the IPCC [IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., Van Der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp]. Assessment of the impacts on the water level of the wetland were carried out by estimating the flow rate of springs discharging from the aquifer obtained by changes of agricultural land use and water supply allocation and variation of recharge according climate scenarios. The greatest reduction in recharge was observed in scenario A2 (-21%), while recharge in scenario B2 remained relatively unchanged (-4%). However, as uncertainties arising from GCM outputs maybe greater than the differences simulated here results are only indicative of the system response. In order to preserve the spring discharge at its current level (17 Mm 3/yr), which successfully prevents the wetland from drying up, a decrease in groundwater extraction is needed. In addition, the reallocation of agricultural wells is recommended under both scenarios. Spring discharge was affected the most by agricultural wells located near the wetland, as indicated by

  11. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping

  12. Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do

  13. Effects of hypothetical management scenarios on simulated water temperatures in the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Risley, John C.

    2000-01-01

    In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Unified Sewerage Agency of Washington County, Oregon (USA) began a cooperative study to better understand water-temperature variations in the Tualatin River and to assess mitigative water-management solutions. Continuous water-temperature data were collected at locations along the main stem of the river and along the major tributaries during the lowflow periods of 1994 and 1995. The 1994 data were used to develop and calibrate flow and water-temperature models characterizing conditions in the main stem. The models were used to simulate 10 hypotheti3 cal water-management scenarios, which would enable water managers to understand the effects of various human activities on water temperatures. Modeling results from the study are presented in Risley (1997); the data collected are presented in Risley and Doyle (1997). This report presents the water-temperature model simulation results of 16 additional hypothetical water-management scenarios using the 1994 and 1995 data. The additional modeling was funded by the USGS and the USA under a cooperative agreement. For a comprehensive description of the water-temperature models and their underlying assumptions, refer to Risley (1997).

  14. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  15. Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

    PubMed

    Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

    2015-03-15

    Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. PMID:25617786

  16. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    PubMed Central

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  17. Communicating worst-case scenarios: neighbors' views of industrial accident management.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Branden B; Chess, Caron

    2003-08-01

    The prospect of industrial accidents motivated the U.S. Congress to require in the Clean Air Act of 1990 that manufacturing facilities develop Risk Management Plans (RMP) to submit to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) by July 1999. Industry worried that the requirement to communicate to the public a "worst-case scenario" would arouse unnecessary and counterproductive fears among industry neighbors. We report here the results of focus groups and surveys with such neighbors, focusing particularly upon their reactions to messages about a hypothetical worst-case scenario and management of these risks by industry, government, and other parties. Our findings confirmed our hypotheses that citizens would be skeptical of the competence and trustworthiness of these managers and that this stance would color their views of industrial-facility accident risks. People with job ties to industry or who saw industrial benefits to the community as exceeding its risks had more positive views of industrial risks, but still expressed great concern about the risk and doubt about accident management. Notwithstanding these reactions, overall respondents welcomed this and other related information, which they wanted their local industries to supply. Respondents were not more reassured by additional text describing management of accidents by government and industry. However, respondents did react very positively to the concept of community oversight to review plant safety. Claims about the firm's moral obligation or financial self-interest in preventing accidents were also received positively. Further research on innovative communication and management of accident risks is warranted by these results, even before recent terrorist attacks made this topic more salient. PMID:12926575

  18. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

  19. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-01-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.

  20. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-09-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraints.

  1. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    PubMed

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis. PMID:26675997

  2. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  3. Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

    2015-04-01

    Humans rely on ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services, namely water supply and water damage mitigation, and promoting forests is a widely used management strategy for the provision of hydrological services. Therefore, it is important to model how forests will contribute for this provision, taking into account the environmental characteristics of each region, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns of societal demand. In addition, ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is one of the aims included in the European Union biodiversity strategy to 2020. On the other hand, forest management for hydrological services must consider possible trade-offs with other services provision, as well as with biodiversity conservation. Accurate modeling and mapping of both hydrological services and biodiversity conservation value is thus important to support spatial planning and land management options involving forests. The objectives of this study were: to analyze the provision and spatial dynamics of hydrological services under two forest cover change scenarios (oak and eucalyptus/pine) compared to the current shrubland-dominated landscape; and to evaluate their spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed (250km2), in northwest Portugal, was used as case-study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services (water supply quantity, timing and quality; soil erosion and flood regulation), and was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments, nitrates and evapotranspiration. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions and field measurements. The maps for each service under the different scenarios were produced at the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) level. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert valuation applied to a land cover map. Statistical correlations between hydrological services provision

  4. Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

    One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision

  5. Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Loveland, Thomas R

    2007-01-01

    Background Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. PMID:17650336

  6. Groundwater artificial recharge solutions for integrated management of watersheds and aquifer systems under extreme drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo-Ferreira, Joao-Paulo; Oliveira, Luís.; Diamantino, Catarina

    2010-05-01

    The paper addresses groundwater artificial recharge solutions for integrated management of watersheds and aquifer systems under extreme drought scenarios. The conceptual idea of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) is considered as one of the scientific based solutions towards scientific based mitigation measures to climate variability and change in many parts of the world. In Portugal two European Union sponsored 6th Framework Programme for Research Projects have been addressing this topic, namely GABARDINE Project on "Groundwater artificial recharge based on alternative sources of water: Advanced integrated technologies and management" and the Coordinated Action ASEMWATERNet, a "Multi-Stakeholder Platform for ASEM S&T Cooperation on Sustainable Water Use". An application of Aquifer Storage and Recovery methodologies aiming drought mitigation and Integrated Water Resource Management of the Algarve (Portugal). The technique of artificial recharge of groundwater is used in many parts of the world with several aims, e.g. water storing in appropriate aquifers for the mitigation of future water needs during droughts or as protection against pollution or even for the recovery of groundwater quality. Artificial recharge of the aquifer systems of Campina de Faro and Silves-Querença is addressed in this paper, proposed to be an alternative to decrease the vulnerability of the Algarve to a future drought. Integrated management of water resources in the Algarve is not a clear issue since the last decade, when groundwater resources that supplied almost all water needs, have been drastically replaced by surface water stored in new reservoirs.

  7. Nitrogen related constraints of carbon sequestration by afforestation under management and climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracher, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    Land use change and land management contribute to the exchange of greenhouse gases and are an important factor for man-made climate change. However, land use and land management can also be used to counteract climate change, which is analysed in this study. Large-scale afforestation is expected to increase terrestrial CO2 uptake due to expansion of forested areas and due to higher biomass production under CO2 fertilization. Management of those areas, particularly harvesting biomass, is an important factor influencing the CO2 sequestration potential. However, productivity of forests can be limited by N availability. Especially under higher harvest, nutrients are continuously removed from the ecosystem which is then prone to nutrient limitation. In this study, the interference of N availability with the C-sequestration potential of afforestation and land management under climate change conditions is quantified by conducting scenario simulations with the land component of the MPI Earth System Model. Especially the efficiency of applying N fertilizer to counteract N limitation under moderate and high harvest, and potential offsets due to higher N2O emissions, are shown.

  8. Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities.

    PubMed

    Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C; Close, David A; Cheung, William W L

    2016-01-01

    Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived

  9. Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities

    PubMed Central

    Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C.; Close, David A.; Cheung, William W. L.

    2016-01-01

    Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived

  10. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments

  11. Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.

    PubMed

    Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

    2013-10-15

    A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

  12. Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced

  13. Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

    Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times

  14. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part...

  15. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part...

  16. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part...

  17. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part...

  18. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part...

  19. Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrera, Analia; Ares, Jorge; Labraga, Juan; Thurner, Stephanie; Bertiller, Mónica

    2007-12-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m-2). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.

  20. Scenarios of future climate and land-management effects on carbon stocks in northern Patagonian shrublands.

    PubMed

    Carrera, Analia; Ares, Jorge; Labraga, Juan; Thurner, Stephanie; Bertiller, Mónica

    2007-12-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m(-2)). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%. PMID:17786512

  1. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  2. Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Necmioglu, Ocal; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana; Aksari, Dogan; Koseoglu, Aysegul; Ozer, Ceren; Comoglu, Mustafa; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Wächter, Joachim

    2013-04-01

    On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI. KOERI, representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (TWP) responsibilities for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Based on this profound experience KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios in the context of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS activities. However, KOERI's, most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria in order to meet ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC

  3. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. PMID:26734840

  4. Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single-Family Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Cummings, James; Withers, Charles; Martin, Eric; Moyer, Neil

    2012-10-01

    This report is a revision of an earlier report titled: Measure Guideline: Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single-Family Homes. Revisions include: Information in the text box on page 1 was revised to reflect the most accurate information regarding classifications as referenced in the 2012 International Residential Code. “Measure Guideline” was dropped from the title of the report. An addition was made to the reference list.

  5. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  6. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  7. A scenario-based study on information flow and collaboration patterns in disaster management.

    PubMed

    Sagun, Aysu; Bouchlaghem, Dino; Anumba, Chimay J

    2009-04-01

    Disaster management (DM) is a continuous, highly collaborative process involving governments, DM organisations, responders, the construction sector, and the general public. Most research approaches to DM include the development of information and communication technologies (ICT) to support the collaboration process rather than the creation of a collaboration process to provide information flows and patterns. An Intelligent Disaster Collaboration System (IDCS) is introduced in this paper as a conceptual model to integrate ICT into DM and the mitigation process and to enhance collaboration. The framework is applicable to the collaboration process at the local, regional and national levels. Within this context, the deployment of ICT tools in DM is explored and scenario-based case studies on flooding and terrorism--examples of natural and human-induced disasters, respectively--are presented. Conclusions are drawn regarding the differences found in collaboration patterns and ICT used during natural and human-induced disasters and the differences between currently available ICT and proposed ICT. PMID:18699856

  8. Use of narrative scenarios for evaluating drought management responses in the Upper Colorado River Basin (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, R. L.; Miller, K.; Yates, D. N.; Kaatz, L.

    2013-12-01

    Drought and water scarcity are already recurrent features of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Climate model projections (such as CMIP3 and CMIP5) show large uncertainty in future precipitation and river flow for the region. However, there is consensus amongst the models that air temperatures will rise, implying earlier and shorter melt seasons, increased risk of wildfire, outbreak of mountain pine beetle die back, and changing in-stream habitat over coming decades. Hence, future water supply and demand planning must be sufficiently flexible to accommodate multiple, uncertain, and interacting stressors on the water system. This paper describes a decision-centered approach for evaluating drought management options under changed climate conditions, taking into account other co-stressors. The framework comprises three main elements: 1) a model of the water collection and rights system; 2) adaptation options for maintaining overall water for supply; and 3) plausible narratives of future conditions for stress-testing the system/option set configuration. We demonstrate our approach using the Colorado River to Glenwood Springs as a case study. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was selected as a parsimonious tool for rapid appraisal of the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA) under various narrative scenarios. The SCRA allows relaxation of a senior water right at Shoshone power plant when upstream reservoir storage is forecast to be below 80% and April-July flow in the Colorado is expected to be less than 85% of average. An extended call relaxation may be triggered when a domestic lawn water ban has been invoked by the Denver Board of Water Commissioners. These measures are designed to enable capture of more spring melt to maintain overall volumetric water entitlements regardless of climate variability and change. The SCRA was assessed in terms of frequency of trigger conditions, volume of water stored, and amount of water that is potentially harvested by

  9. Incorporating Seasonal Forecast of Inflow into Existing Water Resource Management at Ubolratana Dam, Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatikavanij, V.; Block, P. J.; Lall, U.

    2011-12-01

    Seasonal forecast of streamflow, coupled with dynamic reservoir operation policy, has been shown to improve water allocation and flood control. By considering current and expected future reservoir level, water managers can make more adaptive and informed judgments about reservoir operation and allocation policy. While seasonal forecast application has shown substantial positive results, its adoption is still lagging due to the difficulties in integrating forecast into the current reservoir management system. This project offers a simple framework for incorporating seasonal streamflow forecasts into existing operation to optimize reservoir management decisions at the Ubolratana Dam in the Northeastern region of Thailand. The framework allows for the retention of existing reservoir policy while altering the application of the upper rule curve based on forecast information. Our objective is to maximize water release for hydropower generation, minimize spill and shortages while meeting demands for irrigation and water quality control during the peak summer monsoon season. Climate variables, including sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure in March-May, are used to develop streamflow forecast ensembles for September-November. We use a dynamically linked system of forecast and reservoir management models to specify operating rules for end of the month storage levels at the Ubolratana Reservoir. Benefits and reliability based on the forecast ensembles are compared with historical operations and a climatological-based approach. Forecast ensembles are also divided into terciles to evaluate performance during dry and wet years, of particular interest to water managers. Results demonstrate that the dynamic operations contingent on forecasts may increase water releases for hydropower, decrease spill and deficit, and improve reliability compared with the status quo.

  10. Preliminary analysis of perfusionists' strategies for managing routine and failure mode scenarios in cardiopulmonary bypass.

    PubMed

    Power, Gerald; Miller, Anne

    2007-09-01

    Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is a complex task requiring high levels of practitioner expertise. Although some education standards exist, few are based on an analysis of perfusionists' problem-solving needs. This study shows the efficacy of work domain analysis (WDA) as a framework for analyzing perfusionists' conceptualization and problem-solving strategies. A WDA model of a CPB circuit was developed. A high-fidelity CPB simulator (Manbit) was used to present routine and oxygenator failure scenarios to six proficient perfusionists. The video-cued recall technique was used to elicit perfusionists' conceptualization strategies. The resulting recall transcripts were coded using the WDA model and analyzed for associations between task completion times and patterns of conceptualization. The WDA model developed was successful in being able to account for and describe the thought process followed by each participant. It was also shown that, although there was no correlation between experience with CPB and ability to change an oxygenator, there was a link between the between specific thought patterns and the efficiency in undertaking this task. Simulators are widely used in many fields of human endeavor, and in this research, the attempt was made to use WDA to gain insights into the complexities of the human thought process when engaged in the complex task of conducting CPB. The assumption that experience equates with ability is challenged, and rather, it is shown that thought process is a more significant determinant of success when engaged in complex tasks. WDA analysis in combination with a CPB simulator may be used to elucidate successful strategies for completing complex tasks. PMID:17972450

  11. Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to

  12. Managed care's reconstruction of human existence: the triumph of technical reason.

    PubMed

    Phillips, James

    2002-01-01

    To achieve its goals of managing and restricting access to psychiatric care, managed care organizations rely on an instrument, the outpatient treatment report, that carries significant implications about how they view psychiatric patients and psychiatric care. In addition to involving ethical transgressions such as violation of patient confidentiality, denial of access to care, spurious use of concepts like quality of care, and harassment of practitioners, the managed care approach also depends on an overly technical, instrumental interpretation of human beings and psychiatric treatment. It is this grounding of managed care in technical reason that I will explore in this study. I begin with a review of a typical outpatient treatment report and show how, with its dependence on the DSM-IV, on behavioral symptoms and patient 'functioning', on the biomedical model of psychiatric illness, and on gross quantitative measures, the report results in a crude, skeletonized view of the human being as a congeries of behavioral symptoms and functions. I then develop the managed care construal of human existence further by showing its grounding in technical reason, exploring the latter in its modern embodiment and deriving it and its opposite, practical reason, from Aristotle's distinction between technical and practical reason, techne and phronesis. In this analysis of the role of technical reason in managed care, I point out that managed care did not have to develop its rationale de novo but could rather lift its arguments, e.g. the biomedical model, from contemporary psychiatry and simply apply them in a restrictive manner. Finally, I conclude this study by arguing for psychiatry's status as a discipline of practical knowledge. PMID:12516837

  13. Tools for primary care management of inflammatory bowel disease: do they exist?

    PubMed

    Bennett, Alice L; Munkholm, Pia; Andrews, Jane M

    2015-04-21

    Healthcare systems throughout the world continue to face emerging challenges associated with chronic disease management. Due to the likely increase in chronic conditions in the future it is now vital that cooperation and support between specialists, generalists and primary health care physicians is conducted. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is one such chronic disease. Despite specialist care being essential, much IBD care could and probably should be delivered in primary care with continued collaboration between all stakeholders. Whilst most primary care physicians only have few patients currently affected by IBD in their caseload, the proportion of patients with IBD-related healthcare issues cared for in the primary care setting appears to be widespread. Data suggests however, that primary care physician's IBD knowledge and comfort in management is suboptimal. Current treatment guidelines for IBD are helpful but they are not designed for the primary care setting. Few non-expert IBD management tools or guidelines exist compared with those used for other chronic diseases such as asthma and scant data have been published regarding the usefulness of such tools including IBD action plans and associated supportive literature. The purpose of this review is to investigate what non-specialist tools, action plans or guidelines for IBD are published in readily searchable medical literature and compare these to those which exist for other chronic conditions. PMID:25914455

  14. Tools for primary care management of inflammatory bowel disease: Do they exist?

    PubMed Central

    Bennett, Alice L; Munkholm, Pia; Andrews, Jane M

    2015-01-01

    Healthcare systems throughout the world continue to face emerging challenges associated with chronic disease management. Due to the likely increase in chronic conditions in the future it is now vital that cooperation and support between specialists, generalists and primary health care physicians is conducted. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is one such chronic disease. Despite specialist care being essential, much IBD care could and probably should be delivered in primary care with continued collaboration between all stakeholders. Whilst most primary care physicians only have few patients currently affected by IBD in their caseload, the proportion of patients with IBD-related healthcare issues cared for in the primary care setting appears to be widespread. Data suggests however, that primary care physician’s IBD knowledge and comfort in management is suboptimal. Current treatment guidelines for IBD are helpful but they are not designed for the primary care setting. Few non-expert IBD management tools or guidelines exist compared with those used for other chronic diseases such as asthma and scant data have been published regarding the usefulness of such tools including IBD action plans and associated supportive literature. The purpose of this review is to investigate what non-specialist tools, action plans or guidelines for IBD are published in readily searchable medical literature and compare these to those which exist for other chronic conditions. PMID:25914455

  15. Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.

    1990-08-01

    The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.

  16. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are

  17. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

  18. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is

  19. Applications of mathematical modeling in managing the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer under alternative harvesting scenarios.

    PubMed

    Al-Arydah, M; Croteau, M C; Oraby, T; Smith, R J; Krewski, D

    2016-01-01

    The application of a recently developed mathematical model for predicting the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer was assessed under different scenarios where harvesting is employed in disease management. A process-based mathematical model for CWD transmission in wild deer populations was recently developed and parameterized by Al-arydah et al. (2011) to provide a scientific basis for understanding the factors that affect spread of CWD and evaluate concomitant disease-control strategies. The impact of gender on CWD transmission was shown to have a significant influence on the spread of the disease in the wild. Our model demonstrates a range of harvesting rates in which CWD is controlled and deer populations survive. However, if harvesting rates are too low, the disease remains endemic for decades. Conversely, the Canadian deer population is eradicated if harvesting rates are excessive. Future investigation includes building the model to assess the spread of CWD under different disease-management scenarios. PMID:27556563

  20. A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

  1. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET) structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Johanson, Richard B; Menon, Vijay; Burns, Ethel; Kargramanya, Eduard; Osipov, Vardges; Israelyan, Musheg; Sargsyan, Karine; Dobson, Sarah; Jones, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET)) and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia). Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188) than before (85–129.5). In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery). Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review. PMID:12020355

  2. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

  3. Administrative Problem-Solving for Writing Programs and Writing Centers: Scenarios in Effective Program Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myers-Breslin, Linda

    Addressing the issues and problems faced by writing program administrators (WPAs) and writing center directors (WCDs), and how they can most effectively resolve the political, pedagogical, and financial questions that arise, this book presents essays from experienced WPAs and WCDs at a wide variety of institutions that offer scenarios and case…

  4. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

  5. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    PubMed

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

  6. Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W; Symstad, Amy; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

    2016-01-01

    The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

  7. Predicted Impacts of Conjunctive Water Management Scenarios on Late Summer Streamflow in an Agricultural Groundwater Basin with Limited Storage, Scott Valley, CA.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolley, D. G., III; Foglia, L.; Harter, T.

    2015-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of the stream. This negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODFLOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different conjunctive management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a 100 m lateral resolution with aggregated monthly stresses over a 21 year simulation period (1990-2011). The Scott River and tributaries are represented using the streamflow routing (SFR) package. A sensitivity analysis and calibration were performed by hand using 812 head observations from 50 wells in the basin and average daily streamflow observations from a USGS stream gauge during the simulation period. The calibrated model was used to evaluate two different management scenarios: 1) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 2) managed aquifer recharge during the winter months on agricultural fields located in gulches on the eastern side of the valley using existing infrastructure. Preliminary results indicate that implementation of conjunctive water management may increase late summer streamflow at the gauging station by 1-2 cubic feet per second (cfs), a significant amount given that flows are around 10-20 cfs during this time. This increase in flow during the late summer decreases the length of dry reaches both spatially and temporally, allowing for earlier reconnection of the Scott River and decreased stress on fish.

  8. Future scenarios of soil water availability at managed grassland ecosystems in the Austrian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammerle, Albin; Calanca, Pierluigi; Themessl, Matthias; Gobiet, Andreas; Wohlfahrt, Georg

    2014-05-01

    Available soil water is a major constraint for numerous ecosystem functions and is likely to be considerably affected by projected shifts in temperature and precipitation. Quantifying likely future changes in soil water content is therefore essential for assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functions. We present a data fusion approach addressing changes in soil water content of temperate grasslands in the Austrian Alps under future climate scenarios. We use a simple soil bucket model, characterized by an efficient structure and minimal requirements regarding meteorological inputs (solar radiation, precipitation and air temperature). The model is therefore suitable for the analysis of a wide range of ecological datasets. Model parameter were constrained by up to three different datasets (soil water content, evapotranspiration and snow water equivalent) using a Bayesian inversion scheme. Given a repository of data collected at ten sites in the Eastern Alps as well as a set of downscaled and error corrected (quantile mapping) regional climate scenarios, developed for the years 1961 - 2050 with 5 different regional/global climate models (CNRMRM, AITCCLM, KNMIRACMO, DMIHIRHAM, ETHZCLM) we simulated soil water content conditions under these future climate scenarios. Despite the simple model structure calibrated model runs do show a very good performance at the majority of investigated sites. Results show that if any trend can be found, the investigated ecosystems tend to higher soil water contents on average, associated with a distinct decrease in snow cover duration under future climate conditions. Regardless of these average trends some climate models cause an increasing frequency and a longer duration of extreme dry soil water conditions under future climate scenarios.

  9. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  10. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  11. Behavioral and environmental influences on fishing rewards and the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for large tropical rivers.

    PubMed

    Hallwass, Gustavo; Lopes, Priscila F M; Juras, Anastácio A; Silvano, Renato A M

    2013-10-15

    Identifying the factors that influence the amount of fish caught, and thus the fishers' income, is important for proposing or improving management plans. Some of these factors influencing fishing rewards may be related to fishers' behavior, which is driven by economic motivations. Therefore, those management rules that have less of an impact on fishers' income could achieve better acceptance and compliance from fishers. We analyzed the relative influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on fish catches (biomass) in fishing communities of a large tropical river. We then used the results from this analysis to propose alternative management scenarios in which we predicted potential fishers' compliance (high, moderate and low) based on the extent to which management proposals would affect fish catches and fishers' income. We used a General Linear Model (GLM) to analyze the influence of environmental (fishing community, season and habitat) and socioeconomic factors (number of fishers in the crew, time spent fishing, fishing gear used, type of canoe, distance traveled to fishing grounds) on fish catches (dependent variable) in 572 fishing trips by small-scale fishers in the Lower Tocantins River, Brazilian Amazon. According to the GLM, all factors together accounted for 43% of the variation in the biomass of the fish that were caught. The behaviors of fishers' that are linked to fishing effort, such as time spent fishing (42% of the total explained by GLM), distance traveled to the fishing ground (12%) and number of fishers (10%), were all positively related to the biomass of fish caught and could explain most of the variation on it. The environmental factor of the fishing habitat accounted for 10% of the variation in fish caught. These results, when applied to management scenarios, indicated that some combinations of the management measures, such as selected lakes as no-take areas, restrictions on the use of gillnets (especially during the high-water season

  12. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    SciTech Connect

    Parkes, Olga Lettieri, Paola Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  13. Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Shuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

    2016-01-01

    The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

  14. CO2 deserts: implications of existing CO2 supply limitations for carbon management.

    PubMed

    Middleton, Richard S; Clarens, Andres F; Liu, Xiaowei; Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan S

    2014-10-01

    Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change will require deep reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the scale of gigatonnes per year. CO2 capture and utilization and/or storage technologies are a class of approaches that can substantially reduce CO2 emissions. Even though examples of this approach, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, are already being practiced on a scale >0.05 Gt/year, little attention has been focused on the supply of CO2 for these projects. Here, facility-scale data newly collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was processed to produce the first comprehensive map of CO2 sources from industrial sectors currently supplying CO2 in the United States. Collectively these sources produce 0.16 Gt/year, but the data reveal the presence of large areas without access to CO2 at an industrially relevant scale (>25 kt/year). Even though some facilities with the capability to capture CO2 are not doing so and in some regions pipeline networks are being built to link CO2 sources and sinks, much of the country exists in "CO2 deserts". A life cycle analysis of the sources reveals that the predominant source of CO2, dedicated wells, has the largest carbon footprint further confounding prospects for rational carbon management strategies. PMID:25137398

  15. Fishing management scenarios to rebuild exploited resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic (Mediterranean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fouzai, Nadia; Coll, Marta; Palomera, Isabel; Santojanni, Alberto; Arneri, Enrico; Christensen, Villy

    2012-10-01

    We examined various fishing management options to recover exploited marine resources and ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea. Dynamic simulations were based on a spatial ecological model previously calibrated with time series of data. Scenarios regarding spatial management were evaluated with the establishment of two marine protected areas, respectively, in the Pomo pit and the northern region. In addition, three temporal simulations of temporary closures and overall reduction of fishing effort of demersal and pelagic fleets (bottom, mid-water trawls and purse seines) were also considered. Simulations were run for 45 years (1975-2020), including the calibration period (1975-2002), and changes in biomass and catch of marine resources were analyzed. Our results confirm that current fishing management in the Adriatic Sea does not have clear beneficial impacts for the recovery of exploited resources, which will remain depleted in 2020 if "business as usual" continues. Simulations of alternative management suggest that both protected areas could be beneficial for fish population recovery predicting an increase in the biomass of commercial fish and predatory organisms. Simulations of temporary closures and overall reduction of fishing effort also show significant benefits for several commercial resources. We argue that both management measures may be effective tools to recover exploited ecosystems of the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea and halt the decline of marine resources.

  16. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

    PubMed

    Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. PMID:25837786

  17. Distributed ecohydrological modelling to evaluate irrigation system performance in Sirsa district, India II: Impact of viable water management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R.; Jhorar, R. K.; van Dam, J. C.; Feddes, R. A.

    2006-10-01

    SummaryThis study focuses on the identification of appropriate strategies to improve water management and productivity in an irrigated area of 4270 km 2 in India (Sirsa district). The field scale ecohydrological model SWAP in combination with field experiments, remote sensing and GIS has been applied in a distributed manner generating the required hydrological and biophysical variables to evaluate alternative water management scenarios at different spatial and temporal scales. Simulation results for the period 1991-2001 show that the water and salt limited crop production is 1.2-2.0 times higher than the actual recorded crop production. Improved crop husbandry in terms of improved crop varieties, timely sowing, better nutrient supply and more effective weed, pest and disease control, will increase crop yields and water productivity in Sirsa district. The scenario results further showed that reduction of seepage losses to 25-30% of the total canal inflow and reallocation of 15% canal water inflow from the northern to the central canal commands will improve significantly the long term water productivity, halt the rising and declining groundwater levels, and decrease the salinization in Sirsa district.

  18. Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

    2007-12-01

    Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

  19. Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM

  20. Water management in the Basin of Mexico: current state and alternative scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrera-Hernández, Jaime J.; Gaskin, S. J.

    2009-09-01

    Water management policies in the Basin of Mexico, where Mexico City and its nearly 20 million inhabitants live, are analyzed. After a brief description of how water has been managed, possible water management plans that would change water management practices in the Basin are discussed and a call is made for a change in the defensive attitude towards water taken to date. As the aquifer’s replacement cost is considered to be the proxy for the implementation of water tariffs, this is determined, based on the cost of future water sources, and found to be 0.65-0.72 USD/m3. This is twice the amount currently charged in the Federal District (0.34 USD/m3), where 45% of the City's domestic water users are found. As another alternative, the development of an artificial recharge program is also analyzed and found to be a plausible way to increase water supply at a unitary cost of 0.605 USD/m3. Despite the presence of these alternatives, it is suggested that water management in the Basin needs to change from a water supply approach to a water demand approach.

  1. Deriving empirical benchmarks from existing monitoring datasets for rangeland adaptive management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Under adaptive management, goals and decisions for managing rangeland resources are shaped by requirements like the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Land Health Standards, which specify desired conditions. Without formalized, quantitative benchmarks for triggering management actions, adaptive man...

  2. Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lévite, Hervé; Sally, Hilmy; Cour, Julien

    Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called “reserve” (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users’ associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users’ behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not

  3. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  4. A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process. PMID:23311826

  5. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the

  6. Effectiveness of alternative management scenarios on the sediment load in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The AnnAGNPS model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management Practices (MPs) on soil erosion and sediment load in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2) located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was previously calibrated and validated using f...

  7. Night of the living color: horror scenarios in color management land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammens, Johan M.

    1998-12-01

    An ICC-based color management is becoming increasingly feasible and its picking up support from all the major high end design and pre-press applications as well as hardware manufacturers. In addition, the new sRGB standard is emerging as a way to effectively do 'color management for the masses', and is being supported by many leading manufacturers as well. While there certainly remain serious technical issues to address for both ICC and sRGB color management, it seems that the main problem users are facing today is how to integrate all components of their workflow into a seamless system, and how to configured each component to work well with all the others. This paper takes a brief look at the history of color management for a workflow perspective, and attempts to analyze how to compose and configured a quadruple color conversions can become a terrific nightmare. Some of the many ways to get the wrong results are briefly illustrated, as well as a few ways to get the right results. Finally, some technical recommendations are offered for how to improve the situation from a user point of view.

  8. A web tool for STORET/WQX water quality data retrieval and Best Management Practice scenario suggestion.

    PubMed

    Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A; Kim, Jonggun; Theller, Larry; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Merwade, Venkatesh; Lim, Kyoung Jae

    2015-03-01

    Total Maximum Daily Load is a water quality standard to regulate water quality of streams, rivers and lakes. A wide range of approaches are used currently to develop TMDLs for impaired streams and rivers. Flow and load duration curves (FDC and LDC) have been used in many states to evaluate the relationship between flow and pollutant loading along with other models and approaches. A web-based LDC Tool was developed to facilitate development of FDC and LDC as well as to support other hydrologic analyses. In this study, the FDC and LDC tool was enhanced to allow collection of water quality data via the web and to assist in establishing cost-effective Best Management Practice (BMP) implementations. The enhanced web-based tool provides use of water quality data not only from the US Geological Survey but also from the Water Quality Portal for the U.S. via web access. Moreover, the web-based tool identifies required pollutant reductions to meet standard loads and suggests a BMP scenario based on ability of BMPs to reduce pollutant loads, BMP establishment and maintenance costs. In the study, flow and water quality data were collected via web access to develop LDC and to identify the required reduction. The suggested BMP scenario from the web-based tool was evaluated using the EPA Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load model to attain the required pollutant reduction at least cost. PMID:25460420

  9. Patient empowerment by the means of citizen-managed Electronic Health Records: web 2.0 health digital identity scenarios.

    PubMed

    Falcão-Reis, Filipa; Correia, Manuel E

    2010-01-01

    With the advent of more sophisticated and comprehensive healthcare information systems, system builders are becoming more interested in patient interaction and what he can do to help to improve his own health care. Information systems play nowadays a crucial and fundamental role in hospital work-flows, thus providing great opportunities to introduce and improve upon "patient empowerment" processes for the personalization and management of Electronic Health Records (EHRs). In this paper, we present a patient's privacy generic control mechanisms scenarios based on the Extended OpenID (eOID), a user centric digital identity provider previously developed by our group, which leverages a secured OpenID 2.0 infrastructure with the recently released Portuguese Citizen Card (CC) for secure authentication in a distributed health information environment. eOID also takes advantage of Oauth assertion based mechanisms to implement patient controlled secure qualified role based access to his EHR, by third parties. PMID:20543356

  10. From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.

    PubMed

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-03-01

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

  11. From Eutrophic to Mesotrophic: Modelling Watershed Management Scenarios to Change the Trophic Status of a Reservoir

    PubMed Central

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-01-01

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

  12. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co

  13. Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Munson, John B.

    1988-01-01

    A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

  14. Using Existing Teams to Teach about Teams: How an MBA Course in Managing Teams Helps Students and the Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isabella, Lynn A.

    2005-01-01

    This article chronicles the unique manner in which a second-year MBA elective course in managing teams has been crafted using existing first-year learning teams as its core. The design and orchestration of this course are detailed, as are the challenges posed, in delivering a course that not only teaches about teams and team dynamics but does so…

  15. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes. Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  16. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  17. Wireworms’ Management: An Overview of the Existing Methods, with Particular Regards to Agriotes spp. (Coleoptera: Elateridae)

    PubMed Central

    Barsics, Fanny; Haubruge, Eric; Verheggen, François J.

    2013-01-01

    Wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) are important soil dwelling pests worldwide causing yield losses in many crops. The progressive restrictions in the matter of efficient synthetic chemicals for health and environmental care brought out the need for alternative management techniques. This paper summarizes the main potential tools that have been studied up to now and that could be applied together in integrated pest management systems and suggests guidelines for future research. PMID:26466799

  18. Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single Family Homes (Revised)

    SciTech Connect

    Cummings, J.; Withers, C.; Martin, E.; Moyer, N.

    2012-10-01

    This document focuses on managing the driving forces which move air and moisture across the building envelope. While other previously published Measure Guidelines focus on elimination of air pathways, the ultimate goal of this Measure Guideline is to manage drivers which cause air flow and water vapor transport across the building envelope (and also within the home), control air infiltration, keep relative humidity (RH) within acceptable limits, avoid combustion safety problems, improve occupant comfort, and reduce house energy use.

  19. Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

    2011-12-01

    There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

  20. Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

    2011-09-01

    The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

  1. Does Interdisciplinarity Exist behind the Facade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pharo, Emma; Bridle, Kerry

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the facade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed…

  2. Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey

    SciTech Connect

    Tinmaz, Esra . E-mail: idemir@itu.edu.tr

    2006-07-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.

  3. Research on solid waste management system: to improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey.

    PubMed

    Tinmaz, Esra; Demir, Ibrahim

    2006-01-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars. PMID:16112565

  4. Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maffei, A. R.; Chandler, C. L.; Work, T.; Allen, J.; Groman, R. C.; Fox, P. A.

    2009-12-01

    Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an existing, relational database containing oceanographic metadata, along with an existing interface coded in Cold Fusion middleware, to a Drupal6 Content Management System. The goal was to translate all the existing database tables, input forms, website reports, and other features present in the existing system to employ Drupal CMS features. The replacement features include Drupal content types, CCK node-reference fields, themes, RDB, SPARQL, workflow, and a number of other supporting modules. Strategic use of some Drupal6 CMS features enables three separate but complementary interfaces that provide access to oceanographic research metadata via the MySQL database: 1) a Drupal6-powered front-end; 2) a standard SQL port (used to provide a Mapserver interface to the metadata and data; and 3) a SPARQL port (feeding a new faceted search capability being developed). Future plans include the creation of science ontologies, by scientist/technologist teams, that will drive semantically-enabled faceted search capabilities planned for the site. Incorporation of semantic technologies included in the future Drupal 7 core release is also anticipated. Using a public domain CMS as opposed to proprietary middleware, and taking advantage of the many features of Drupal 6 that are designed to support semantically-enabled interfaces will help prepare the BCO-DMO database for interoperability with other ecosystem databases.

  5. Detection and management of pre-existing cognitive impairment and associated behavioral symptoms in the Intensive Care Unit.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hochang B; DeLoatch, Candyce J; Cho, SeongJin; Rosenberg, Paul; Mears, Simon C; Sieber, Frederick E

    2008-10-01

    Recent increase in both the elderly population and associated incidence of dementia are of critical importance to patient care in ICUs in the United States. Identification of pre-existing cognitive impairment, such as mild cognitive impairment and dementia, could prevent delirium and associated morbidity and mortality in the ICU. Additionally, noncognitive behavioral symptoms, such as depression, psychosis, agitation, and catastrophic reactions, are common in patients with pre-existing cognitive impairment. Detection and management of noncognitive behavioral symptoms associated with MRI and dementia in ICU leads to improved delivery of life-saving critical care. PMID:18929940

  6. Detection and Management of Pre-Existing Cognitive Impairment and Associated Behavioral Symptoms in the Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Hochang B.; DeLoatch, Candyce J.; Cho, SeongJin; Rosenberg, Paul; Mears, Simon C.; Sieber, Frederick E.

    2008-01-01

    Recent increase in both the elderly population and associated incidence of dementia are of critical importance to patient care in intensive care units (ICU) in the United States. Identification of pre-existing cognitive impairment such as mild cognitive impairment and dementia could prevent delirium and associated morbidity and mortality in ICU. Additionally, non-cognitive behavioral symptoms such as depression, psychosis, agitation, and catastrophic reactions are common in patients with pre-existing cognitive impairment. Detection and management of non-cognitive behavioral symptoms associated with demented elderly patients in ICU leads to improved delivery of life-saving critical care. PMID:18929940

  7. Mating system, population growth, and management scenario for Kalanchoe pinnata in an invaded seasonally dry tropical forest.

    PubMed

    González de León, Salvador; Herrera, Ileana; Guevara, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east-central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand-pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life-stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand-pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross-pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self- and cross-pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self-compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self-compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies. PMID:27386095

  8. Analytical perspectives on performance-based management: an outline of theoretical assumptions in the existing literature.

    PubMed

    Wadmann, Sarah; Johansen, Sarah; Lind, Ane; Okkels Birk, Hans; Hoeyer, Klaus

    2013-10-01

    Performance-based management (PBM) has become a dominant form of governance in health care and there is a need for careful assessment of its function and effects. This article contains a cross-disciplinary literature synthesis of current studies of PBM. Literature was retrieved by database searches and categorized according to analytical differences and similarities concerning (1) purpose and (2) governance mechanism of PBM. The literature could be grouped into three approaches to the study of PBM, which we termed: the ‘functionalist’, the ‘interpretive’ and the ‘post-modern’ perspective. In the functionalist perspective, PBM is perceived as a management tool aimed at improving health care services by means of market-based mechanisms. In the interpretive perspective, the adoption of PBM is understood as consequence of institutional and individual agents striving for public legitimacy. In the post-modern perspective, PBM is analysed as a form of governance, which has become so ingrained in Western culture that health care professionals internalize and understand their own behaviour and goals according to the values expressed in these governance systems. The recognition of differences in analytical perspectives allows appreciation of otherwise implicit assumptions and potential implications of PBM. Reflections on such differences are important to ensure vigilant appropriation of shifting management tools in health quality governance. PMID:23506797

  9. Managing data quality in an existing medical data warehouse using business intelligence technologies.

    PubMed

    Eaton, Scott; Ostrander, Michael; Santangelo, Jennifer; Kamal, Jyoti

    2008-01-01

    The Ohio State University Medical Center (OSUMC) Information Warehouse (IW) is a comprehensive data warehousing facility that provides providing data integration, management, mining, training, and development services to a diversity of customers across the clinical, education, and research sectors of the OSUMC. Providing accurate and complete data is a must for these purposes. In order to monitor the data quality of targeted data sets, an online scorecard has been developed to allow visualization of the critical measures of data quality in the Information Warehouse. PMID:18998950

  10. Comprehensive Review of the Literature on Existing Punctal Plugs for the Management of Dry Eye Disease

    PubMed Central

    Jehangir, Naz; Bever, Greg; Mahmood, S. M. Jafar; Moshirfar, Majid

    2016-01-01

    Numerous designs of punctal and canalicular plugs are available on the market. This variety presents challenges to ophthalmologists when choosing punctal plugs for the management of various ocular conditions. The aim of this literature review is to provide a classification system for lacrimal occlusive devices based on their location and duration of action as well as to identify different characteristics of each one of them. We want to give a comprehensive overview on punctal and canalicular plugs including their manufacturing companies, indications, and complications that have been reported in various articles. PubMed and Google Scholar were used to identify articles written in English as well as few articles written in Japanese, Chinese, Slovak, and Spanish that had abstracts in English. Nine different companies that manufacture punctal and canalicular plugs were identified and their plugs were included in this review. Punctal and canalicular plugs are used in the management of various ocular conditions including dry eye disease and punctal stenosis as well as in ocular drug delivery. Although they are a relatively safe option, associated complications have been reported in the literature such as infection, allergic reaction, extrusion, and migration. PMID:27088009

  11. Comprehensive Review of the Literature on Existing Punctal Plugs for the Management of Dry Eye Disease.

    PubMed

    Jehangir, Naz; Bever, Greg; Mahmood, S M Jafar; Moshirfar, Majid

    2016-01-01

    Numerous designs of punctal and canalicular plugs are available on the market. This variety presents challenges to ophthalmologists when choosing punctal plugs for the management of various ocular conditions. The aim of this literature review is to provide a classification system for lacrimal occlusive devices based on their location and duration of action as well as to identify different characteristics of each one of them. We want to give a comprehensive overview on punctal and canalicular plugs including their manufacturing companies, indications, and complications that have been reported in various articles. PubMed and Google Scholar were used to identify articles written in English as well as few articles written in Japanese, Chinese, Slovak, and Spanish that had abstracts in English. Nine different companies that manufacture punctal and canalicular plugs were identified and their plugs were included in this review. Punctal and canalicular plugs are used in the management of various ocular conditions including dry eye disease and punctal stenosis as well as in ocular drug delivery. Although they are a relatively safe option, associated complications have been reported in the literature such as infection, allergic reaction, extrusion, and migration. PMID:27088009

  12. Software Health Management: A Short Review of Challenges and Existing Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pipatsrisawat, Knot; Darwiche, Adnan; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Schumann, Johann

    2009-01-01

    Modern spacecraft (as well as most other complex mechanisms like aircraft, automobiles, and chemical plants) rely more and more on software, to a point where software failures have caused severe accidents and loss of missions. Software failures during a manned mission can cause loss of life, so there are severe requirements to make the software as safe and reliable as possible. Typically, verification and validation (V&V) has the task of making sure that all software errors are found before the software is deployed and that it always conforms to the requirements. Experience, however, shows that this gold standard of error-free software cannot be reached in practice. Even if the software alone is free of glitches, its interoperation with the hardware (e.g., with sensors or actuators) can cause problems. Unexpected operational conditions or changes in the environment may ultimately cause a software system to fail. Is there a way to surmount this problem? In most modern aircraft and many automobiles, hardware such as central electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components are monitored by IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) systems. These systems can recognize, isolate, and identify faults and failures, both those that already occurred as well as imminent ones. With the help of diagnostics and prognostics, appropriate mitigation strategies can be selected (replacement or repair, switch to redundant systems, etc.). In this short paper, we discuss some challenges and promising techniques for software health management (SWHM). In particular, we identify unique challenges for preventing software failure in systems which involve both software and hardware components. We then present our classifications of techniques related to SWHM. These classifications are performed based on dimensions of interest to both developers and users of the techniques, and hopefully provide a map for dealing with software faults and failures.

  13. Evaluation of Managed Aquifer Recharge Scenarios using Treated Wastewater: a Case study of the Zarqa River Basin, Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Rawy, Mustafa; Zlotnik, Vitaly; Al-Maktoumi, Ali; Al-Raggad, Marwan; Kacimov, Anvar; Abdalla, Osman

    2016-04-01

    Jordan is an arid country, facing great challenges due to limited water resources. The shortage of water resources constrains economy, especially agriculture that consumes the largest amount of available water (about 53 % of the total demand). According to the Jordan Water Strategy 2008 - 2022, groundwater is twice greater than the recharge rate. Therefore, the government charged the planners to consider treated wastewater (TWW) as a choice in the water resources management and development strategies. In Jordan, there are 31 TWW plants. Among them, As Samra plant serving the two major cities, Amman and Zarqa, is the largest, with projected maximum capacity of 135 Million m3/year. This plant is located upstream of the Zarqa River basin that accepts all TWW discharges. The Zarqa River is considered the most important source of surface water in Jordan and more than 78 % of its current is composed of TWW. The main objectives were to develop a conceptual model for a selected part of the Zarqa River basin, including the As Samrapant, and to provide insights to water resources management in the area using TWW. The groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW 2005 and used to assess changes in the aquifer and the Zarqa River under a set of different increments in discharge rates from the As Samra plant and different groundwater pumping rates. The results show that the water table in the study area underwent an average water table decline of 29 m prior to the As Samra plant construction, comparing with the current situation (with annual TWW discharge of 110 Million m3). The analysis of the TWW rate increase to 135 million m3/year (maximum capacity of the As Samra plant) shows that the average groundwater level will rise 0.55 m, compared to the current conditions. We found that the best practices require conjunctive use management of surface- and groundwater. The simulated scenarios highlight the significant role of TWW in augmenting the aquifer storage, improving

  14. Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations—teachers and nurses—that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0

  15. [V Consensus Meeting of the Spanish Society for Liver Transplant on high-risk recipients, immunosupression scenarios and management of hepatocarcinoma on the transplant waiting list].

    PubMed

    Pardo, Fernando; Pons, José Antonio; Briceño, Javier

    2015-12-01

    With the aim to promote the elaboration of consensus documents on state of the art topics in liver transplantation with multidisciplinary management, the Spanish Society for Liver Transplantation (SETH) organized the V Consensus Meeting with the participation of experts from all the Spanish liver transplant programs. In this edition, the following topics were revised, and we present the summary: 1. High-risk receptors; 2. Immunosuppression scenarios; and 3. Management of the patient with hepatocarcinoma in the waiting list. PMID:26404045

  16. V Consensus Meeting of the Spanish Society for Liver Transplant on high-risk recipients, immunosupression scenarios and management of hepatocarcinoma on the transplant waiting list.

    PubMed

    Pardo, Fernando; Pons, José Antonio; Briceño, Javier

    2015-12-01

    With the aim to promote the elaboration of consensus documents on state of the art topics in liver transplantation with multidisciplinary management, the Spanish Society for Liver Transplantation (SETH) organized the V Consensus Meeting with the participation of experts from all the Spanish liver transplant programs. In this edition, the following topics were revised, and we present the summary: 1. High-risk receptors; 2. Immunosuppression scenarios; and 3. Management of the patient with hepatocarcinoma in the waiting list. PMID:26187597

  17. Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

    2010-12-01

    Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

  18. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  19. On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale

  20. Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research

  1. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

  2. A comparative analysis of user preference-based and existing knowledge management systems attributes in the aerospace industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varghese, Nishad G.

    Knowledge management (KM) exists in various forms throughout organizations. Process documentation, training courses, and experience sharing are examples of KM activities performed daily. The goal of KM systems (KMS) is to provide a tool set which serves to standardize the creation, sharing, and acquisition of business critical information. Existing literature provides numerous examples of targeted evaluations of KMS, focusing on specific system attributes. This research serves to bridge the targeted evaluations with an industry-specific, holistic approach. The user preferences of aerospace employees in engineering and engineering-related fields were compared to profiles of existing aerospace KMS based on three attribute categories: technical features, system administration, and user experience. The results indicated there is a statistically significant difference between aerospace user preferences and existing profiles in the user experience attribute category, but no statistically significant difference in the technical features and system administration attribute categories. Additional analysis indicated in-house developed systems exhibit higher technical features and user experience ratings than commercial-off-the-self (COTS) systems.

  3. Diagnosis and Management of Drug-Induced Liver Injury (DILI) in Patients with Pre-Existing Liver Disease.

    PubMed

    Teschke, Rolf; Danan, Gaby

    2016-08-01

    The relationship between drugs and pre-existing liver disease is complex, particularly when increased liver tests (LTs) or new symptoms emerge in patients with pre-existing liver disease during drug therapy. This requires two strategies to assess whether these changes are due to drug-induced liver injury (DILI) as a new event or due to flares of the underlying liver disease. Lacking a valid diagnostic biomarker, DILI is a diagnosis of exclusion and requires causality assessment by RUCAM, the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method, to establish an individual causality grading of the suspected drug(s). Flares of pre-existing liver disease can reliably be assessed in some hepatotropic virus infections by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and antibody titers at the beginning and in the clinical course to ascertain flares during the natural course of the disease. Unfortunately, flares cannot be verified in many other liver diseases such as alcoholic liver disease, since specific tests are unavailable. However, such a diagnostic approach using RUCAM applied to suspected DILI cases includes clinical and biological markers of pre-existing liver diseases and would determine whether drugs or underlying liver diseases caused the LT abnormalities or the new symptoms. More importantly, a clear diagnosis is essential to ensure effective disease management by drug cessation or specific treatment of the flare up due to the underlying disease. PMID:27091053

  4. Hydrogeologic data for existing excavations and the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The Special Projects Section of Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., Inc. is responsible for characterizing the subsurface geology and hydrology of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Waste Management Division. Geologic description, in situ testing, and laboratory analyses of alluvium exposed in existing excavations are important subparts to the Area 5 Site Characterization Program designed to determine the suitability of the RWMS for disposal of low level waste mixed waste and transuranic waste. The primary purpose of the Existing Excavation Project is two-fold: first, to characterize important hydrologic properties of the near surface alluvium, thought to play an important role in the infiltration and redistribution of water and solutes through the upper unsaturated zone at the Area 5 RWMS; and second, to provide guidance for the design of future sampling and testing programs. The justification for this work comes from the state of Nevada review of the original DOE/NV Part B Permit application submitted in 1988 for disposal of mixed wastes at the RWMS. The state of Nevada determined that the permit was deficient in characterization data concerning the hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone. DOE/NV agreed with the state and proposed the study of alluvium exposed in existing excavations as one step toward satisfying these important site characterization data requirements. Other components of the site characterization process include the Science Trench Borehole and Pilot Well Projects.

  5. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    PubMed Central

    Davey, Sanjeev; Davey, Anuradha

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Currently, many cheaper “practice management software” (PMS) are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods: First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009) guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst) software using binary random effects (REs) model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results: Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100–226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85). The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion: Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system. PMID:25949969

  6. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2

  7. Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.

    2013-07-01

    Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

  8. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  9. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    PubMed

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. PMID:26724447

  10. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    PubMed

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  11. The implications of using large ensembles of climate scenarios for the management of river ecology in an English chalk stream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, C. F.; Lopez, A.; New, M.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is likely to impact on freshwater ecology, the delivery of regulatory commitments to ecological status and the management of water resources. It is becoming increasingly important for European environment agencies to use and develop methods to aid planning and abstraction licensing procedures and policies in the face of climate change and with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive. Studies have been carried out in the past to investigate the implications of climate change for biodiversity. However, predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, an area which has not been dealt with in great depth in the past. This study has been undertaken to draw on the results of new methodologies to address the uncertainties inherent in modelling future climate and assess their usability for decision-making in water resources allocations specifically in considering interactions between flow and invertebrate communities The River Itchen was chosen as the case study catchment on the strength of having a long-term coupled ecological and flow dataset and having been an area of intensive study in the past. It is a chalk stream located in the south of England and a candidate Special Area of Conservation. It has also been designated a Special Site of Scientific Interest achieved due to the number of rare species, and the richness of the macro-invertebrate community in the river catchment. An ensemble of 246 transient simulations for future climate was obtained from ClimatePrediction.net which were then used to drive a rainfall-runoff model. In order to link the modelled river flow to ecology, the Lotic Invertebrate Flow Evaluation score has been used where the invertebrate community is linked to flow largely through sensitivity to water velocity and siltation, driven by flow variability at sites with fixed channel dimensions The large ensemble of climate scenarios and thereby flow and ecological indices allows the exploration of the risk of the river of

  12. Lessons learned from Toulouse and Buncefield disasters: from risk analysis failures to the identification of atypical scenarios through a better knowledge management.

    PubMed

    Paltrinieri, Nicola; Dechy, Nicolas; Salzano, Ernesto; Wardman, Mike; Cozzani, Valerio

    2012-08-01

    The recent occurrence of severe major accidents has brought to light flaws and limitations of hazard identification (HAZID) processes performed for safety reports, as in the accidents at Toulouse (France) and Buncefield (UK), where the accident scenarios that occurred were not captured by HAZID techniques. This study focuses on this type of atypical accident scenario deviating from normal expectations. The main purpose is to analyze the examples of atypical accidents mentioned and to attempt to identify them through the application of a well-known methodology such as the bow-tie analysis. To these aims, the concept of atypical event is accurately defined. Early warnings, causes, consequences, and occurrence mechanisms of the specific events are widely studied and general failures of risk assessment, management, and governance isolated. These activities contribute to outline a set of targeted recommendations, addressing transversal common deficiencies and also demonstrating how a better management of knowledge from the study of past events can support future risk assessment processes in the identification of atypical accident scenarios. Thus, a new methodology is not suggested; rather, a specific approach coordinating a more effective use of experience and available information is described, to suggest that lessons to be learned from past accidents can be effectively translated into actions of prevention. PMID:22211299

  13. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    and to develop multiple response options. Coastal management actions can take anywhere from a few years for alterations to an existing levee to a decade or longer for large-scale, multi-use projects. Given the observed accelerated rate of global SLR in recent decades, it is now critical for the scientific community to help decision makers use scenario planning approaches for coastal adaptation in order to avoid future impacts of sea level rise and its effect on the frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding.

  14. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: The case of an Italian urban area

    SciTech Connect

    Di Maria, Francesco Micale, Caterina

    2014-11-15

    Highlights: • Waste management scenarios starting from different SS intensity were analyzed by LCA. • Several experimental data were utilized for the inventory. • Collection activities influences marginally global impact. • Maximum global environmental gain was achieved by SRF for coke substitution. - Abstract: Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process.

  15. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  16. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North

  17. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  18. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: the case of an Italian urban area.

    PubMed

    Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

    2014-11-01

    Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process. PMID:25008299

  19. Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Guiying; Xu, Minggang; He, Xinhua; Zhang, Wenju; Huang, Shaomin; Yang, Xueyun; Liu, Hua; Peng, Chang; Shirato, Yasuhito; Iizumi, Toshichika; Wang, Jinzhou; Murphy, Daniel V.

    2014-03-01

    We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term field trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general circulation models were validated using these field trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year-1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be -4.3 to 18.2 t C ha-1 by 2100. The effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ significantly between climate scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2) was approximately 0.136 t C ha-1 yr-1 in northern China. These findings highlight the need to maintain, and where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming inorganic fertilizer intensive.

  20. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    PubMed

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  1. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  2. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

  3. Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

    2013-04-01

    In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current

  4. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  5. Climate and Management of the Colorado River: What Does the SSD Study Tell Us About Scenario Analysis?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, D. S.

    2007-12-01

    The "Severe Sustained Drought in the Southwestern US" (SSD) research project conducted between 1989-1994 focused on the likely size and distribution of water shortages in the Colorado River Basin should the most severe, long-term drought found in the tree-ring record reoccur in the modern era. The research approach, generally, was to (a) utilize tree-ring studies to reconstruct prehistoric flows, (b) select the drought from this record that was most likely to catastrophically stress the system, (c) estimate future water demand in the basin, (d) utilize institutional studies and water system modeling to identify the timing, location and magnitude of likely water shortages should this drought reoccur, (e) assess impacts and damages associated with these shortages, and (f) investigate a small set of coping strategies. Each step in this process raised a variety of technical challenges and drew upon the talents of approximately 40 researchers including engineers/hydrologists, attorneys, economists, environmental scientists, sociologists, and policy specialists. The goal was to stimulate thinking and reform prior to a drought crisis; however, the study findings were largely ignored until the recent drought crisis, and then once discovered, some of the key conclusions of the study regarding substantive issues of water shortage vulnerability and distribution were found to be inconsistent with (and thus potentially irrelevant to solving) the current drought. Understanding why some key results of the research scenario differ significantly from the current crisis is important in informing future scenario analyses. Specifically, this case study highlights the importance and difficulty of (a) effectively linking scientific modeling efforts with social analyses, and (b) linking scenario analyses to real-world policy-making settings. In this basin, improving the understanding of drought is likely less about improved scholarship in climate and hydrology, and more about

  6. Assessing future scenarios for health care waste management using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool: A case study in the Turkish West Black Sea Region.

    PubMed

    Ciplak, Nesli

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the best possible health care waste management option in the West Black Sea Region by taking into account economic, social, environmental, and technical aspects in the concept of multi-criteria decision analysis. In the scope of this research, three different health care waste management scenarios that consist of different technology alternatives were developed and compared using a decision-making computer software, called Right Choice, by identifying various criteria, measuring them, and ranking their relative importance from the point of key stakeholders. The results of the study show that the decentralized autoclave technology option coupled with the disposal through land-filling with energy recovery has potential to be an optimum option for health care waste management system, and an efficient health care waste segregation scheme should be given more attention by the authorities in the region. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out multidisciplinary approach and the equilibrium between social, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. The methodology used in this research was developed in order to enable the decision makers to gain an increased perception of a decision problem. In general, the results and remarks of this study can be used as a basis of future planning and anticipation of needs for investment in the area of health care waste management in the region and also in developing countries that are dealing with the similar waste management problems. PMID:26211633

  7. Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, M. S.; Coronado, C.; Miller, M. W.; Rudnick, D. T.; Stabenau, E.; Halley, R. B.; Sklar, F. H.

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year-1 and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

  8. Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the Greater Everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.

    PubMed

    Koch, M S; Coronado, C; Miller, M W; Rudnick, D T; Stabenau, E; Halley, R B; Sklar, F H

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades. PMID:25312295

  9. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  10. Approaches to Teaching: Adapting Cases in Operations Management for Use in the Technical Writing Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrow, John

    1988-01-01

    Describes how technical writing teachers can adapt existing operations management cases for the writing classroom by recognizing communication gaps and filling them with appropriate writing scenarios. (ARH)

  11. Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei

    2013-11-30

    The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790

  12. Why are most EU pigs tail docked? Economic and ethical analysis of four pig housing and management scenarios in the light of EU legislation and animal welfare outcomes.

    PubMed

    D'Eath, R B; Niemi, J K; Vosough Ahmadi, B; Rutherford, K M D; Ison, S H; Turner, S P; Anker, H T; Jensen, T; Busch, M E; Jensen, K K; Lawrence, A B; Sandøe, P

    2016-04-01

    To limit tail biting incidence, most pig producers in Europe tail dock their piglets. This is despite EU Council Directive 2008/120/EC banning routine tail docking and allowing it only as a last resort. The paper aims to understand what it takes to fulfil the intentions of the Directive by examining economic results of four management and housing scenarios, and by discussing their consequences for animal welfare in the light of legal and ethical considerations. The four scenarios compared are: 'Standard Docked', a conventional housing scenario with tail docking meeting the recommendations for Danish production (0.7 m2/pig); 'Standard Undocked', which is the same as 'Standard Docked' but with no tail docking, 'Efficient Undocked' and 'Enhanced Undocked', which have increased solid floor area (0.9 and 1.0 m2/pig, respectively) provision of loose manipulable materials (100 and 200 g/straw per pig per day) and no tail docking. A decision tree model based on data from Danish and Finnish pig production suggests that Standard Docked provides the highest economic gross margin with the least tail biting. Given our assumptions, Enhanced Undocked is the least economic, although Efficient Undocked is better economically and both result in a lower incidence of tail biting than Standard Undocked but higher than Standard Docked. For a pig, being bitten is worse for welfare (repeated pain, risk of infections) than being docked, but to compare welfare consequences at a farm level means considering the number of affected pigs. Because of the high levels of biting in Standard Undocked, it has on average inferior welfare to Standard Docked, whereas the comparison of Standard Docked and Enhanced (or Efficient) Undocked is more difficult. In Enhanced (or Efficient) Undocked, more pigs than in Standard Docked suffer from being tail bitten, whereas all the pigs avoid the acute pain of docking endured by the pigs in Standard Docked. We illustrate and discuss this ethical balance using

  13. Flood Propagation in the Middle-Lower Reach of the River Po for Different Scenarios of Floodplain Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellarin, A.; di Baldassarre, G.; Brath, A.

    2009-04-01

    The River Po is the longest Italian river, and the largest river in terms of streamflow. The middle-lower Po flows East some 350km in the Pianura Padana, a very important agricultural region and industrial heart of northern Italy. For this portion of the river, the riverbed consists of a stable main channel 200-500m wide and two lateral banks (the overall width varies from 200m to 5km) confined by two continuous artificial levees. The lateral banks are densely cultivated, and cultivations are protected against frequent flooding by a system of minor artificial levees. This sub-system of levees impacts significantly the hydraulic behaviour of the middle-lower Po during major flood events. This study utilizes a quasi-2D hydraulic numerical model. The model has been developed on the basis of laser-scanning DTM (resolution: 2m, topographic survey: 2005) and calibrated using the information available for the significant flood event of October 2000. The study aims at investigating the effects of the adoption of different floodplain management strategies (e.g., raising, lowering or removal of the sub-system of levees) on flood hazard along the river reach.

  14. Impacts, Effectiveness and Regional Inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 Solar Radiation Management Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the regional effectiveness of solar radiation management (SRM) to compensate for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze results from multiple earth system models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project(GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Under the solar dimming geoengineering experiments G1(4xCO2) and G2(increasing CO2 by 1% per year), global average temperature is successfully restored to pre-industrial level over 50 years simulations. However, these two SRM experiments also produce a robust global precipitation decrease. The stratospheric aerosol GeoMIP geoengineering experiment, G4 has significantly greater regional inequality and lower effectiveness for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2. G4 also has significantly larger regional inequality for compensating precipitation change than G1and G2. However, there is no significant difference between precipitation change compensation effectiveness of G4 and G2, though there is much larger across model variability in G4 results. G3 has significant greater regional inequality for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2, and has significant lower effectiveness than G1. The effectiveness of four SRMs to compensate for temperature change is much higher than for precipitation. The large cross-model variation in adjustment percentage of compensated SAT and precipitation change by SRM to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness shed a light on the uncertainty accumulation effect in optimizing compensation effectiveness of SRM.

  15. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C.; Freeman, W.

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

  16. An evaluation of the impact of forest biomass harvest for biofuels on carbon storage in the US west coast states under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. M.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    Mitigation strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide have lead to investigation of alternative sources of fuels. National and state forest policies have been implemented to both reduce risk of wildfire and promote use of forest biomass as a secondary biofuels energy source. However, the cost and biomass availability have been estimated without quantifying the impact on current and future terrestrial carbon balances. This study uses a combination of Federal Inventory Analysis data (FIA) and supplementary plot data for Washington, Oregon and California to quantify the current forest carbon stocks, net ecosystem production (NEP), and net biome production (NBP = NEP - removals) for the period from 2001-2006. Varying management treatments were applied to determine the net cost, carbon debt, and biofuels energy potential. The treatments were designed to meet multiple objectives emphasizing carbon storage, economic gain, or energy production. The hazardous fuels reduction treatment minimizes carbon loss by only harvesting biomass in forested areas classified by moderate to high risk fire condition classes (FRCC class). This scenario assumes no additional harvest in ecoregions characterized by long fire return intervals (>100 years) such as the Coast Range and the West Cascades and limits removals to an 18 in diameter at breast height (DBH). The energy production treatment maximizes biomass removal by harvesting areas regardless of FRCC class and allows removals up to a 24 inch DBH. Statewide estimates of carbon for 2001-2006 prior to harvest scenarios for California, Oregon, and Washington respectively are as follows: 1) Total land-based carbon stocks (excluding soils) averages 1680, 1663, and 1278 Tg C; 2) NEP is positive in most ecoregions averaging 213, 180, and 191 g C m-2 yr-1; 3) Actual harvest removals averaged 2.7, 6.5, and 5.1 Tg C yr-1 for the same period. In Oregon, the amount of biomass available for biofuels varies from 128 g C m-2 in the

  17. Costs of existing and recommended manure management practices for house fly and stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) control on dairy farms.

    PubMed

    Lazarus, W F; Rutz, D A; Miller, R W; Brown, D A

    1989-08-01

    Costs of fly control practices were estimated for 26 New York and Maryland dairy farms. Objectives were to characterize existing practices, compare them with the cost of more frequent and complete manure removal to reduce fly breeding, and to compare costs of manure removal and insecticide application. Information was collected in scouting visits and personal interviews of farm operators. Equipment, labor, and bedding costs were included for manure removal. Insecticide application costs included chemicals and labor for application. A typical farm with a stanchion barn had manure removal costs of $0.348 per cow per day. Recommended changes would increase costs by $0.016-0.033 per cow per day. Insecticide costs averaged $0.021 per cow per day. It may be possible to eliminate many of the insecticide applications on the farms by using the recommended 7-d manure removal practice. Even if insecticides are not eliminated entirely, increased manure removal costs would be offset by some reduction in insecticide cost. This also would have the additional benefit of greatly slowing the development of insecticide resistance by the flies. PMID:2768644

  18. Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2013-12-01

    This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

  19. A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

    2014-05-01

    Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

  20. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  1. Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

    Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

  2. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  3. Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, A. E.; Fabos, J. G.; Carlozzi, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

  4. Geographic information systems for assessing existing and potential bio-energy resources: Their use in determining land use and management options which minimize ecological and landscape impacts in rural areas

    SciTech Connect

    Jackman, A.E.; Fabos, J.G.; Carlozzi, C.C.

    1982-01-01

    A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The description of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

  5. Preparing for Catastrophic Disasters: Application of Earth Science and Engineering Data, and Loss Scenarios for Emergency Management and Disaster Recovery Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisner, R.

    2006-12-01

    Catastrophic disasters, either man or nature caused, pose unique challenges to federal, state and local governments. The complex interactions of lifeline disruption, structural damage, and population displacement are difficult to comprehend or predict. As the preparation for and response to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illustrated, forecasting the occurrence of the event does not adequately define the complexity of the consequences. Preparing for the occurrence of a rapid onset disaster that occurs without warning creates additional challenges to the emergency management community. If the event is catastrophic, it will quickly overwhelm local, regional and state resources. The ability to comprehend the magnitude and complexity of such a disruption will also be overwhelmed. The State of California, in order to gain insights into the complexity and demands of a catastrophic earthquake event (historic events include Central California [1906, 1868], Southern California [1857], and possible future events), has partnered with the United States Geological Survey, Charles Kircher and Associates, PBS&J and FEMA to exercise and test the State's response to a catastrophic recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. As Kircher notes in his paper, USGS ground motions, enhanced structure inventories, and FEMA' loss estimation tool, HAZUS, are used to define the impact on the San Francisco Bay Region infrastructure, resources and economy. In November of 2006, this scenario will serve as the structure of a 10-county response exercise that will be played out over 36 continuous hours, replicating lifeline, communications and transportation disruption. The exercise, funded by the California Office of Homeland Security, is the first statewide catastrophic disaster response to be carried out in the State and should serve as both a model for integration of natural hazard information into homeland security planning and for developing training that addresses the complex

  6. The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.

  7. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  8. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  9. Comparison of a User-Centered Design, Self-Management App to Existing mHealth Apps for Persons Living With HIV

    PubMed Central

    Mosley, Jocelyn Patterson; Iribarren, Sarah J; Bakken, Suzanne; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex; Brown III, William

    2015-01-01

    Background There is preliminary evidence that mobile health (mHealth) apps are feasible, attractive, and an effective platform for the creation of self-management tools for persons living with HIV (PLWH). As a foundation for the current study, we conducted formative research using focus groups, participatory design sessions, and usability evaluation methods to inform the development of a health management app for PLWH. The formative research resulted in identification of the following functional requirements of a mHealth app for self-management: (1) communication between providers and peers, (2) medication reminders, (3) medication log, (4) lab reports, (5) pharmacy information, (6) nutrition and fitness, (7) resources (eg, social services, substance use, video testimonials), (8) settings, and (9) search function. Objective The purpose of this study was to conduct an ecological review of the existing apps for PLWH and to compare the functionality of existing apps with the app specifications identified in our formative work. Methods We searched two mobile app stores (Google Play and iTunes) and found a total of 5606 apps. We reviewed the apps, narrowed our search terms, and found a total of 112 apps. Of these, we excluded 97 (86.6%) apps that were either not in English (10/112, 8.9%), not HIV focused (32/112, 28.9%), or focused only on HIV prevention (2/112, 7.8%); targeted health care providers (26/112, 23.2%); provided information only on conference schedules and events (7/112, 6.3%), fundraisers (7/112, 6.3%), specific clinics (7/112, 6.3%), international or narrow local resources (3/112, 2.7%); or were identified in the first search but were no longer on the market at the next review (4/112, 3.6%). The 15 apps meeting inclusion criteria were then evaluated for inclusion of the nine functionalities identified in our earlier work. Results Of the 15 apps that we included in our final review, none had all of the functionalities that were identified in our formative

  10. A Survey to Determine if Significant Differences Exist in the Scoring of Select Management Areas for Fast Food and Full Service Restaurant Managers by Two-Year Foodservice Management Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloom, Thomas A.

    A survey was conducted of students in 77 of the 144 two-year foodservice management programs in the United States to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward fast food restaurant management as compared to full service restaurant management. A total of 1,403 students from 44 programs responded. Results indicated that the food service…

  11. Towards a Clinical Decision Support System for Drug Allergy Management: Are Existing Drug Reference Terminologies Sufficient for Identifying Substitutes and Cross-Reactants?

    PubMed

    Ogallo, William; Kanter, Andrew S

    2015-01-01

    Drug allergy cross-reactivity checking is an important component of electronic health record systems. Currently, a single, open-source medication dictionary that can provide this function does not exist. In this study, we assessed the feasibility of using RxNorm and NDF-RT (National Drug File--Reference Terminology) for allergy management decision support. We evaluated the performance of using the Pharmacological Class, Mechanism of Action and Chemical Structure NDF-RT classifications in discriminating between safe and cross-reactive alternatives to a sample of common drug allergens. The positive predictive values for the three approaches were 96.3%, 99.3% and 96.2% respectively. The negative predictive values were 94.7%, 56.8% and 92.6%. Our findings suggest that in the absence of an established medication allergy classification system, using the Pharmacologic Class and Chemical Structure classifications in NDF-RT may still be effective for discriminating between safe and cross-reactive alternatives to potential allergens. PMID:26262387

  12. Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

    PubMed Central

    Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C.; Hull, Angela D.; Sanderson, William G.

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”. PMID:23894298

  13. Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites

    SciTech Connect

    Boice, D.C.

    1986-04-01

    Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  14. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  15. Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

    2000-01-01

    Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination

  16. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  17. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  18. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  19. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  20. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m χ ≲ 8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly- mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  1. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  2. Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cherry, Gregory S.

    2006-01-01

    (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

  3. Striving for Balance: The Co-Existence of Multi-, Inter- and Transdisciplinary Curricula in Information Management Education To Address Information Imbalances on Tertiary Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fairer-Wessels, Felicite A.

    Within the South African tertiary education context, information management is taught from a variety of perspectives, including computer science, business management, informatics, and library and information science. Each discipline has a particular multidisciplinary focus dealing with its fundamentals. To investigate information management…

  4. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person. PMID:19502145

  5. Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone.

    PubMed

    Gude, Patricia H; Hansen, Andrew J; Jones, Danielle A

    2007-06-01

    Land use is rapidly expanding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, primarily from growth in the number of rural homes. There is a need to project possible future land use and assess impacts on nature reserves as a guide to future management. We assessed the potential biodiversity impacts of alternative future land use scenarios in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. An existing regression-based simulation model was used to project three alternative scenarios of future rural home development. The spatial patterns of forecasted development were then compared to several biodiversity response variables that included cover types, species habitats, and biodiversity indices. We identified the four biodiversity responses most at risk of exurban development, designed growth management policies to protect these areas, and tested their effectiveness in two alternative future scenarios. We found that the measured biodiversity responses, including riparian habitat, elk winter range, migration corridors, and eight other land cover, habitat, and biodiversity indices, are likely to undergo substantial conversion (between 5% and 40%) to exurban development by 2020. Future habitat conversion to exurban development outside the region's nature reserves is likely to impact wildlife populations within the reserves. Existing growth management policies will provide minimal protection to biodiversity in this region. We identified specific growth management policies, including incentives to cluster future growth near towns, that can protect "at risk" habitat types without limiting overall growth in housing. PMID:17555214

  6. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  7. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  8. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  9. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  10. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  11. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  12. Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.

    PubMed

    Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

    2013-11-01

    Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

  13. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes

  14. Alternative conceptual models and the robustness of groundwater management scenarios in the multi-aquifer system of the Central Veneto Basin, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passadore, Giulia; Monego, Martina; Altissimo, Lorenzo; Sottani, Andrea; Putti, Mario; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2012-05-01

    A three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model of the deep multi-aquifer Quaternary deposits of the Po plain sedimentary basin, within a 3,300-km2 area (Veneto, Italy), is developed, tested and applied to aid sustainable large-scale water-resources management. Integrated mathematical modelling proves significantly successful, owing to an unusual wealth of available geological, geophysical, and hydrologic data and to state-of-the-art numerical tools. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the influence of alternative conceptual models; that is, of reconstructed representations of the 3D geological model of the structure of the aquifers. The reference conceptual model is set up by means of extended geological sections and stratigraphic records, and is used to create a large, unstructured 3D finite element grid. By analyzing the effects on piezometric surfaces and on the overall water budget of geometrical perturbations from the reference structure, alternative geo-structural models, obtained by systematically shifting the pinch-out of the aquitards, are compared. Interestingly, the impacts of aquitard pinch-out prove far from negligible. The results suggest the critical importance of reliable geological models even for large, complex 3D models. The good practice of iteratively testing numerically the impact of surprises on the conceptual model, as more field information is collected, is thus supported.

  15. SAPPHIRE: scenarios, architecture, and process.

    PubMed

    Kay, S; Redman, R; McWilliams, A; Bradley, P; Daniels, A

    1994-06-01

    General Medical Practice (GMP) information systems within the UK are becoming more sophisticated and more complex and are widely available from numerous suppliers. Although such systems are viewed as being important, they are problematic in terms of interpreting and assessing their usefulness, and their impact upon work and the organisation (G. Walsham, Interpreting Information Systems in Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1993)). In particular, it is difficult for any who have an interest in these systems to apply existing technical specifications to a specific situation, and to match individual requirements with the supplier's products. The research project SAPPHIRE seeks to inform the decision making of stakeholders, e.g. GPs, facilitators and suppliers, with respect to procurement, update, design and supply of GMP systems by developing the means of evaluating such systems, and by facilitating an accreditation process through that evaluation. This extended paper introduces the multi-faceted approach, scenarios, architecture and process of SAPPHIRE. PMID:7956163

  16. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  17. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  18. Review and Analysis of Existing Mobile Phone Apps to Support Heart Failure Symptom Monitoring and Self-Care Management Using the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS)

    PubMed Central

    Maurer, Mathew S; Reading, Meghan; Hiraldo, Grenny; Hickey, Kathleen T; Iribarren, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart failure is the most common cause of hospital readmissions among Medicare beneficiaries and these hospitalizations are often driven by exacerbations in common heart failure symptoms. Patient collaboration with health care providers and decision making is a core component of increasing symptom monitoring and decreasing hospital use. Mobile phone apps offer a potentially cost-effective solution for symptom monitoring and self-care management at the point of need. Objective The purpose of this review of commercially available apps was to identify and assess the functionalities of patient-facing mobile health apps targeted toward supporting heart failure symptom monitoring and self-care management. Methods We searched 3 Web-based mobile app stores using multiple terms and combinations (eg, “heart failure,” “cardiology,” “heart failure and self-management”). Apps meeting inclusion criteria were evaluated using the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS), IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics functionality scores, and Heart Failure Society of America (HFSA) guidelines for nonpharmacologic management. Apps were downloaded and assessed independently by 2-4 reviewers, interclass correlations between reviewers were calculated, and consensus was met by discussion. Results Of 3636 potentially relevant apps searched, 34 met inclusion criteria. Most apps were excluded because they were unrelated to heart failure, not in English or Spanish, or were games. Interrater reliability between reviewers was high. AskMD app had the highest average MARS total (4.9/5). More than half of the apps (23/34, 68%) had acceptable MARS scores (>3.0). Heart Failure Health Storylines (4.6) and AskMD (4.5) had the highest scores for behavior change. Factoring MARS, functionality, and HFSA guideline scores, the highest performing apps included Heart Failure Health Storylines, Symple, ContinuousCare Health App, WebMD, and AskMD. Peer-reviewed publications were identified

  19. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  20. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  1. Exploring Existence Value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madariaga, Bruce; McConnell, Kenneth E.

    1987-05-01

    The notion that individuals value the preservation of water resources independent of their own use of these resources is discussed. Issues in defining this value, termed "existence value," are explored. Economic models are employed to assess the role of existence value in benefit-cost analysis. The motives underlying existence value are shown to matter to contingent valuation measurement of existence benefits. A stylized contingent valuation experiment is used to study nonusers' attitudes regarding projects to improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Survey results indicate that altruism is one of the motives underlying existence value and that goods other than environmental and natural resources may provide existence benefits.

  2. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  3. Winds of change: How will windstorms and forest harvesting affect C cycling in northern MN under different climate scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucash, M. S.; Scheller, R. M.; Gustafson, E.; Sturtevant, B.

    2013-12-01

    Forest managers struggle to manage timber resources while integrating the complex interactions that exist among disturbances with the novel conditions produced by a changing climate. To help forest managers better integrate climate change and disturbance projections into their forest management plans, we are using a forest landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II, Century extension) to project carbon sequestration in northern Minnesota under multiple climate change, management and disturbance scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using empirical estimates of aboveground productivity and net ecosystem exchange. Our simulations suggest that windstorms will decrease tree biomass and soil organic matter and will increase dead C, resulting in an overall decrease in total C and C sink strength under the GFDL A1FI climate scenario. However the direct effects of climate change on C via altered production and heterotrophic respiration were larger than the impacts of wind. In contrast, forest harvesting will remain the dominant determinant of C dynamics under A1FI, even under management scenarios of more selective logging and longer rotation periods. Recovery from historic (late 1800s and early 1900s) disturbance - clearcut logging and wildfire - remain an important, though declining, driver of long-term C dynamics. Our research results will inform regional planning efforts and help forest managers evaluate the relative importance of disturbances (e.g. wind) and forest harvesting under a changing climate.

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  5. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now

  6. Mission MOX Fuel Physics Design--Preliminary Equilibrium MOX Assembly Design and Expected Operating Power for Existing Balakovo Fuel Management Scheme

    SciTech Connect

    Pavlovichev, A.M.

    2001-09-28

    Among various versions of excess weapons-grade plutonium handling the most preferred in Russia is its burning in power reactors. This is accounted for by the desire to utilize the power value of weapons-grade plutonium and the potentialities of the existing nuclear industry complex. In Russia the versions of burning weapons-grade plutonium in the VVER-, BN-, and HTGR-type power reactors are being developed. However the analysis of the current structure of nuclear power and the energy strategy reveals that in the coming years the VVER-1000-type (designs B-320 and B-392) as well as the VVER-640 reactor (design B-407) now under development appear to be the most promising for this purpose. The experience with the use of mixed uranium/plutonium fuel in the LWR, gained in the West and the preliminary studies carried out in Russia show that weapons-grade plutonium may be actually used as fuel for the Russian VVER reactors. At present Russia has 7 operating VVER-1000 of total installed capacity 7 GWe, 11 reactors of this type are in operation in Ukraine, and 2 in Bulgaria. Before 2003 it is planned to put into operation 2 VVER-1000 units more in Russian and at least 2 units in Ukraine.

  7. Robotic tele-existence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro

    1989-01-01

    Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.

  8. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  9. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  10. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  11. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  12. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  13. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  14. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  15. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed at the expiration of their initial... expiration of the lease term and be accompanied by the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and...

  16. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  17. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  18. Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

  19. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  20. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  1. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  2. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  3. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  4. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  5. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  6. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  7. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  8. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  9. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  10. Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast

  11. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

  12. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  13. Does Unconscious Racism Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quillian, Lincoln

    2008-01-01

    This essay argues for the existence of a form of unconscious racism. Research on implicit prejudice provides good evidence that most persons have deeply held negative associations with minority groups that can lead to subtle discrimination without conscious awareness. The evidence for implicit attitudes is briefly reviewed. Criticisms of the…

  14. Understanding existing exposure situations.

    PubMed

    Lecomte, J-F

    2016-06-01

    International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 103 removed the distinction between practices and interventions, and introduced three types of exposure situation: existing, planned, and emergency. It also emphasised the optimisation principle in connection with individual dose restrictions for all controllable exposure situations. Existing exposure situations are those resulting from sources, natural or man-made, that already exist when a decision on control has to be taken. They have common features to be taken into account when implementing general recommendations, such as: the source may be difficult to control; all exposures cannot be anticipated; protective actions can only be implemented after characterisation of the exposure situation; time may be needed to reduce exposure below the reference level; levels of exposure are highly dependent on individual behaviour and present a wide spread of individual dose distribution; exposures at work may be adventitious and not considered as occupational exposure; there is generally no potential for accident; many stakeholders have to be involved; and many factors need to be considered. ICRP is currently developing a series of reports related to the practical implementation of Publication 103 to various existing exposure situations, including exposure from radon, exposure from cosmic radiation in aviation, exposure from processes using naturally occurring radioactive material, and exposure from contaminated sites due to past activities. PMID:26975365

  15. 36 CFR 9.33 - Existing operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Existing operations. 9.33 Section 9.33 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT Non-Federal Oil and Gas Rights § 9.33 Existing operations. (a) Any person conducting operations on January 8, 1979 in accordance...

  16. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  17. Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the

  18. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  19. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  20. Security message exchange interoperability scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tarman, Thomas

    1998-07-01

    This contribution describes three interoperability scenarios for the ATM Security Message Exchange (SME) protocol. These scenarios include network-wide signaling support for the Security Services Information Element, partial signaling support wherethe SSIE is only supported in private or workgroup ATM networks, and the case where the SSIE is nonsupported by any network elements (exceptthosethat implement security services). Explanatory text is proposed for inclusion infection 2.3 of the ATM Security Specification, Version 1.0.

  1. Existence of hyperbolic calorons

    PubMed Central

    Sibner, Lesley; Sibner, Robert; Yang, Yisong

    2015-01-01

    Recent work of Harland shows that the SO(3)-symmetric, dimensionally reduced, charge-N self-dual Yang–Mills calorons on the hyperbolic space H3×S1 may be obtained through constructing N-vortex solutions of an Abelian Higgs model as in the study of Witten on multiple instantons. In this paper, we establish the existence of such minimal action charge-N calorons by constructing arbitrarily prescribed N-vortex solutions of the Witten type equations.

  2. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  3. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  4. Transportation capabilities of the existing cask fleet

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, P.E.; Joy, D.S.; Wankerl, M.W.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes a number of scenarios estimating the amount of spent nuclear fuel that could be transported to a Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) Facility by various combinations of existing cask fleets. To develop the scenarios, the data provided by the Transportation System Data Base (TSDB) were modified to reflect the additional time for cask turnaround resulting from various startup and transportation issues. With these more realistic speed and cask-handling assumptions, the annual transportation capability of a fleet consisting of all of the existing casks is approximately 46 metric tons of uranium (MTU). The most likely fleet of existing casks that would be made available to the Department of Energy (DOE) consists of two rail, three overweight truck, and six legal weight truck casks. Under the same transportation assumptions, this cask fleet is capable of approximately transporting 270 MTU/year. These ranges of capability is a result of the assumptions pertaining to the number of casks assumed to be available. It should be noted that this assessment assumes additional casks based on existing certifications are not fabricated. 5 refs., 4 tabs.

  5. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  6. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa.

    PubMed

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several "day to day" clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  7. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  8. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  9. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T; Dick Cameron

    2015-01-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource

  10. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

  11. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  12. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    1999-09-01

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and

  13. Integrated Water Management Strategies For The Rhine and Meuse Basins In A Changing Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Middelkoop, H.; van Asselt, M. B. A.; van St Klooster, S. A.; van Deursen, W. P. A.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Buiteveld, H.; Haasnoot, M.; Können, G. P.

    Water management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best water management strategy? This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. Within the framework of IRMA-SPONGE a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling was combined with socio-cultural theory. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water man- agement strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view on the future, together with the according water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, both where these match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of differ- ent water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies.

  14. EXIST Perspective for SFXTs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ubertini, Pietro; Sidoli, L.; Sguera, V.; Bazzano, A.

    2009-12-01

    Supergiant Fast X-ray Transients (SFXTs) are one of the most interesting (and unexpected) results of the INTEGRAL mission. They are a new class of HMXBs displaying short hard X-ray outbursts (duration less tha a day) characterized by fast flares (few hours timescale) and large dinamic range (10E3-10E4). The physical mechanism driving their peculiar behaviour is still unclear and highly debated: some models involve the structure of the supergiant companion donor wind (likely clumpy, in a spherical or non spherical geometry) and the orbital properties (wide separation with eccentric or circular orbit), while others involve the properties of the neutron star compact object and invoke very low magnetic field values (B < 1E10 G) or alternatively very high (B>1E14 G, magnetars). The picture is still highly unclear from the observational point of view as well: no cyclotron lines have been detected in the spectra, thus the strength of the neutron star magnetic field is unknown. Orbital periods have been measured in only 4 systems, spanning from 3.3 days to 165 days. Even the duty cycle seems to be quite different from source to source. The Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey Telescope (EXIST), with its hard X-ray all-sky survey and large improved limiting sensitivity, will allow us to get a clearer picture of SFXTs. A complete census of their number is essential to enlarge the sample. A long term and continuous as possible X-ray monitoring is crucial to -(1) obtain the duty cycle, -(2 )investigate their unknown orbital properties (separation, orbital period, eccentricity),- (3) to completely cover the whole outburst activity, (4)-to search for cyclotron lines in the high energy spectra. EXIST observations will provide crucial informations to test the different models and shed light on the peculiar behaviour of SFXTs.

  15. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  16. Scenario-based impact analysis of disaster risks exploring potential implications for disaster prevention strategies in spatial and urban planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lüke, J.; Wenzel, F.; Vogt, J.

    2009-04-01

    The project deals with scenario techniques to assess, estimate, and communicate the potential consequences of natural disasters on risk governance arrangements. It aims to create a methodology which allows the development of disaster scenarios for different types of natural hazards. This enables relevant stakeholders to derive planning strategies to prevent harmful damage to the community through adequate adaptation. Some main questions in the project are: - How do changing boundary conditions in economic, social and ecological systems influence the significance and the benefit of existent risk analysis as a basis for spatial planning decisions? - Which factors represent or influence the forecast uncertainty of existent extrapolations within the scope of risk analysis? Which of these uncertainties have spatial relevance? (Which go beyond sectoral considerations of risk? Which refer to reservations concerning spatial development? Which influence a community as a whole?) - How can we quantify these uncertainties? Do they change according to altered hazards or vulnerabilities? - How does the explored risk vary, once quantified uncertainties are integrated into current extrapolations? What are the implications for spatial planning activities? - Which software application is suitable to visualize and communicate the scenario methodology? The work is mainly based on existing results of previous hazard analysis and vulnerability studies which have been carried out by the Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) for the federal state of Baden-Württemberg. Existing data concern the risk of damages on residential buildings, industrial and traffic infrastructure, social and economic vulnerability. We will link this data with various assumptions of potentially changing economic, social and built environments and visualize those using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Although the scenario methodology is conceived as a multi-hazard oriented and

  17. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  18. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT... HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  19. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT... HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  20. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT... HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  1. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT... HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  2. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  3. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  4. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  5. Designing Scenarios for Human Action.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carroll, John M.

    1994-01-01

    An approach to the design of computer systems and applications in which scenarios of human-system interaction are a central working design representation are described and illustrated by examples from the design of a multimedia information system. (Contains 21 references.) (KRN)

  6. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  7. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. PMID:26604078

  8. Robustness Analysis of Regional Water Supply Portfolios using Synthetic Inflow Scenarios with Variable Drought Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, J. D.; Zeff, H. B.; Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which existing or planned policies may fail to meet stakeholder objectives. Such assessments rely heavily on the choice of plausible future scenarios, which, in the case of drought management, requires sampling or generating a broad ensemble of reservoir inflows which do not necessarily reflect the historical record. Here we adapt a widely used synthetic streamflow generation method to adjust the frequency of low-flow periods, which can be related to impactful historical events from the perspective of decision makers. Specifically, the modified generation procedure allows the user to specify parameters n, p such that events with observed weekly non-exceedance frequency p appear in the synthetic scenario with approximate frequency np (i.e., the pth percentile flow occurs n times more frequently). Additionally, the generator preserves the historical autocorrelation of streamflow and its seasonality, as well as approximate multi-site correlation. Using model simulations from recent work in multi-objective urban drought portfolio planning in North Carolina, a region whose water supply faces both climate and population pressures, we illustrate the decision-relevant consequences caused by raising the frequency of low flows associated with the 2007-2008 drought. This method explores system performance under extreme events of increasing frequency prior to reconciling these findings with climate model projections, and thus can be used to support bottom-up robustness methods in water systems planning.

  9. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  10. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  11. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  12. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  13. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  14. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    PubMed Central

    Contractor, Kaiyumars B; Kaur, Kanchan; Rodrigues, Gabriel S; Kulkarni, Dhananjay M; Singhal, Hemant

    2008-01-01

    Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease. PMID:18558006

  15. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  16. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  17. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  18. 44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150...

  19. 44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150...

  20. 44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150...

  1. 44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150...

  2. 44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150...

  3. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  4. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  5. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  6. Program Simulates Spacecraft Communication Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Land, Kenneth P.; Best, Robert E.; Steel, Douglas J.; Gadd, William C.

    1994-01-01

    Dynamic Environment Communications Alalysis Testbed (DECAT) computer program is modular simulation program. Computes effects of motion, antenna radiation patterns, noise, interference, and other phenomena. Flexibility enables users to analyze many communications scenarios quickly and easily, eliminating need for users to create specific computer programs. Users create simulations involving any number of vehicles, receivers, transmitters, and antennas via graphical user interface (GUI). DECAT GUI implemented by use of software tool called "Transportable Applications Environment Plus" (TAE Plus). Written in C language. Graphical user interface requires TAE Plus, Version 5.1 package available from COSMIC (GSC-13463).

  7. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  8. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-01-01

    The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, ‘Decision robustness’ and ‘Learning success’, we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

  9. Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.

    2015-12-01

    Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the

  10. 41 CFR 105-8.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 105-8.150 Section 105-8.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property...-8.150 Program accessibility: Existing facilities....

  11. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  13. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  14. Scenario Writing: A Vision of the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shewach, Dawn L.

    1991-01-01

    The Scenario Writing component of the Future Problem Solving Program calls for students to write a short-short story exploring variables in the future. This article describes the scenario writing process, presents samples of award-winning scenarios, and offers tips for student-authors and for coaches. (JDD)

  15. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  16. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  17. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. PMID:25976302

  18. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  19. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  20. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  1. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  2. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  3. 43 CFR 3140.1-1 - Existing rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Existing rights. 3140.1-1 Section 3140.1-1 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT... Existing Oil and Gas Leases and Valid Claims Based on Mineral Locations § 3140.1-1 Existing rights. (a)...

  4. 43 CFR 3140.1-1 - Existing rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Existing rights. 3140.1-1 Section 3140.1-1 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT... Existing Oil and Gas Leases and Valid Claims Based on Mineral Locations § 3140.1-1 Existing rights. (a)...

  5. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie, (Edited By); Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  6. Co-existence of agricultural production systems.

    PubMed

    Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut

    2006-05-01

    Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism. PMID:16545877

  7. Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

    2010-12-01

    A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal

  8. Existence and non-existence of breather solutions in damped and driven nonlinear lattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennig, D.

    2013-10-01

    We investigate the existence of spatially localised solutions, in the form of discrete breathers, in general damped and driven nonlinear lattice systems of coupled oscillators. Conditions for the exponential decay of the difference between the maximal and minimal amplitudes of the oscillators are provided which proves that initial non-uniform spatial patterns representing breathers attain exponentially fast a spatially uniform state preventing the formation and/or preservation of any breather solution at all. Strikingly our results are generic in the sense that they hold for arbitrary dimension of the system, any attractive interaction, coupling strength and on-site potential and general driving fields. Furthermore, our rigorous quantitative results establish conditions under which discrete breathers in general damped and driven nonlinear lattices can exist at all and open the way for further research on the emergent dynamical scenarios, in particular features of pattern formation, localisation and synchronisation, in coupled cell networks.

  9. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  10. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  11. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  12. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  13. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-09-19

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

  14. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  15. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem

  16. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  17. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  18. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  19. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  20. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  1. Hospitals in the year 2000: a scenario.

    PubMed

    Foster, J T

    1989-01-01

    Hospitals came into the twentieth century as creations of local, usually altruistic, interests and wrestled with accelerating change throughout the decades. Their success brought third-party financing, employee health plans, and government guarantees for charity care. Success seemed to breed success, and they raced ahead with capital investment in bricks, mortar, and high technology, only to find themselves in increasing trouble as 1990 approached. Writing from the precarious perch of the year 2000, the author views the worsening hospital situation and raises questions about the contradictions of federal interventions, the efforts to create "systems," the plight of small hospitals, and the love-hate role of medical staffs. Offered for consideration is a scenario of a health care crisis in the early 1990s comparable to the savings and loan crisis of 1988. However, this time the federal intervention is not simply in dollars, but, instead, brings on a "health for all" program with national financing and decentralized "district health" management. As in other nations of the world, hospitals become an integral part of the commitment to attack the root causes of ill health. PMID:10296999

  2. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  3. An integrated approach for the management of demolition waste in Cyprus.

    PubMed

    Kourmpanis, Basilis; Papadopoulos, Achilleas; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Kourmoussis, Fotis; Stylianou, Marinos; Loizidou, Maria

    2008-12-01

    This study investigated the generation and management of demolition waste (DW) in Cyprus. A methodology has been developed and applied for the estimation of the quantities of the waste stream under examination, since quantitative primary data were not available. The existing situation relating to the practices applied for the management of DW was investigated and assessed. Furthermore, a multi-criteria analysis method (PROMETHEE II) was developed and applied in order to examine alternative systems that could be implemented for the management of the DW in the country. In particular, nine management systems (scenarios) were examined, evaluated and ranked according to their efficiency using seventeen individual criteria, divided into four groups (social-legislative, environmental, economic and technical). The ranking of the alternative waste management scenarios indicated that the optimum management system for possible implementation in the island included complete selective demolition procedures and transfer of mixed recyclable materials to the recycling centre and non-recyclable material to landfill. PMID:19039075

  4. Hydrological scenarios for two selected Alpine catchments for the 21st century using a stochastic weather generator and enhanced process understanding for modelling of seasonal snow and glacier melt for improved water resources management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dabhi, Hetal; Dubrovsky, Martin; Hanzer, Florian; Marke, Thomas; Oberguggenberger, Michael; Rössler, Ole; Schmieder, Jan; Rotach, Mathias; Stötter, Johann; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    The overall objective of HydroGeM³ is to quantify and assess both water demand and water supply in two coupled human-environment mountain systems, i.e. Lütschine in Switzerland and Ötztaler Ache in Austria. Special emphasis is laid on the analysis of possible future seasonal water scarcity. The hydrological response of high Alpine catchments is characterised by a strong seasonal variability with low runoff in winter and high runoff in spring and summer. Climate change is expected to cause a seasonal shift of the runoff regime and thus it has significant impact on both amount and timing of the release of the available water resources, and thereof, possible future water conflicts. In order to identify and quantify the contribution of snow and ice melt as well as rain to runoff, streamflow composition will be analysed with natural tracers. The results of the field investigations will help to improve the snow and ice melt and runoff modules of two selected hydrological models (i.e. AMUNDSEN and WaSiM) which are used to investigate the seasonal water availability under current and future climate conditions. Together, they comprise improved descriptions of boundary layer and surface melt processes (AMUNDSEN), and of streamflow runoff generation (WaSiM). Future meteorological forcing for the modelling until the end of the century will be provided by both a stochastic multi-site weather generator, and downscaled climate model output. Both approches will use EUROCORDEX data as input. The water demand in the selected study areas is quantified for the relevant societal sectors, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation and (winter) tourism. The comparison of water availability and water demand under current and future climate conditions will allow the identification of possible seasonal bottlenecks of future water supply and resulting conflicts. Thus these investigations can provide a quantitative basis for the development of strategies for sustainable water management in

  5. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  6. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qihong; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-05-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state w of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once w reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if w approaches a constant at t →-∞, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if w decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the emergent scenario that avoids the big bang singularity can be successfully implemented in the EC theory of gravity.

  7. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?

    SciTech Connect

    Kanemura, Shinya; Nabeshima, Takehiro; Matsumoto, Shigeki; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-09-01

    Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the standard model gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate the possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

  8. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  9. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  10. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  11. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID

  12. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  13. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions. PMID:27037383

  14. Badnaviruses: The Current Global Scenario.

    PubMed

    Bhat, Alangar Ishwara; Hohn, Thomas; Selvarajan, Ramasamy

    2016-01-01

    Badnaviruses (Family: Caulimoviridae; Genus: Badnavirus) are non-enveloped bacilliform DNA viruses with a monopartite genome containing about 7.2 to 9.2 kb of dsDNA with three to seven open reading frames. They are transmitted by mealybugs and a few species by aphids in a semi-persistent manner. They are one of the most important plant virus groups and have emerged as serious pathogens affecting the cultivation of several horticultural crops in the tropics, especially banana, black pepper, cocoa, citrus, sugarcane, taro, and yam. Some badnaviruses are also known as endogenous viruses integrated into their host genomes and a few such endogenous viruses can be awakened, e.g., through abiotic stress, giving rise to infective episomal forms. The presence of endogenous badnaviruses poses a new challenge for the fool-proof diagnosis, taxonomy, and management of the diseases. The present review aims to highlight emerging disease problems, virus characteristics, transmission, and diagnosis of badnaviruses. PMID:27338451

  15. Badnaviruses: The Current Global Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Bhat, Alangar Ishwara; Hohn, Thomas; Selvarajan, Ramasamy

    2016-01-01

    Badnaviruses (Family: Caulimoviridae; Genus: Badnavirus) are non-enveloped bacilliform DNA viruses with a monopartite genome containing about 7.2 to 9.2 kb of dsDNA with three to seven open reading frames. They are transmitted by mealybugs and a few species by aphids in a semi-persistent manner. They are one of the most important plant virus groups and have emerged as serious pathogens affecting the cultivation of several horticultural crops in the tropics, especially banana, black pepper, cocoa, citrus, sugarcane, taro, and yam. Some badnaviruses are also known as endogenous viruses integrated into their host genomes and a few such endogenous viruses can be awakened, e.g., through abiotic stress, giving rise to infective episomal forms. The presence of endogenous badnaviruses poses a new challenge for the fool-proof diagnosis, taxonomy, and management of the diseases. The present review aims to highlight emerging disease problems, virus characteristics, transmission, and diagnosis of badnaviruses. PMID:27338451

  16. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  17. Examining Communities at Risk: Physical and Socioeconomic Impacts of an Earthquake Scenario on the Hayward Fault (The HayWired Scenario)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dinitz, L.; Wein, A. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Jones, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    This research led by the U.S. Geological Survey aims to inform and stimulate the development of plans and policies in disaster management and hazard mitigation that will help improve the capacity of residents, businesses and communities to rebound from disasters. As was evidenced in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, "ghost towns" emerged in neighborhoods with high concentrations of damaged rental housing. Also, rental properties that served predominantly lower income households had more difficulty financing repairs which led to blight and other long-term community recovery challenges. Our approach is to develop a framework for identifying and spatially analyzing communities at risk of long-term displacement and recovery challenges for an earthquake scenario. The HayWired scenario postulates a M7.05 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area with surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and fires, as well as subsequent aftershocks. The analytical framework relies on the literature and prior disaster experience to identify and systematically combine physical and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake sequence with pre-existing socioeconomic conditions to identify areas where housing and building damage, lifeline service disruption, and socioeconomic challenges intersect and can potentially lead to long-term displacements of people, businesses, and jobs. Hazus analyses estimate $46 billion in building damage from the HayWired main shock, which increases by 10-25% due to aftershocks. Heavy damage to large apartment buildings exceeds many other housing types, and preliminary analyses identify neighborhoods where these damage concentrations also intersect with concentrations of low income households. Also, in some counties, the estimated population displaced from severely damaged housing far exceeds the number of vacant housing units, which means residents may be forced to move well away from former neighborhoods and even outside the region

  18. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  19. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  20. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  1. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices

  2. Does sporadic Leber's disease exist?

    PubMed

    Nikoskelainen, E; Nummelin, K; Savontaus, M L

    1988-12-01

    This study gives some illustrative case reports of the difficulties in the diagnosis of Leber's hereditary optic neuroretinopathy. It underlies the importance of careful family history and search for peripapillary microangiopathy in the maternal relatives of patients suspected to suffer from Leber's disease. The article casts doubt on the existence of so-called sporadic Leber's disease. PMID:2977137

  3. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  4. Multidecadal Fluvial Sediment Fluxes to Deltas under Environmental Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, Frances; Darby, Stephen; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Sediment delivery is vital to sustain delta environments on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Due to factors such as subsidence and sea level rise, deltas sink relative to sea level if sediment is not delivered to and retained on their surfaces. Deltas which sink relative to sea level experience flooding, land degradation and loss, which endangers anthropogenic activities and populations. The future of fluvial sediment fluxes, a key mechanism for sediment delivery to deltas, is uncertain due to complex environmental changes which are predicted to occur over the coming decades. This research investigates fluvial sediment fluxes under environmental changes in order to assess the sustainability of delta environments under potential future scenarios up to 2100. Global datasets of climate change, reservoir construction, and population and GDP as proxies for anthropogenic influence through land use changes are used to drive the catchment numerical model WBMsed, which is being used to investigate the effects of these environmental changes on fluvial sediment delivery. This process produces fluvial sediment fluxes under multiple future scenarios which will be used to assess the future sustainability of a selection of 8 vulnerable deltas, although the approach can be applied to deltas worldwide. By modelling potential future scenarios of fluvial sediment flux, this research contributes to the prognosis for delta environments. The future scenarios will inform management at multiple temporal scales, and indicate the potential consequences for deltas of various anthropogenic activities. This research will both forewarn managers of potentially unsustainable deltas and indicate those anthropogenic activities which encourage or hinder the creation of sustainable delta environments.

  5. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing

  6. Clinical scenarios: enhancing the skill set of the nurse as a vigilant guardian.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Therese; Belcher, Erin; Sarr, Barbara; Riutta, Emily; Ferrier, Jennifer Douglas; Botten, Mary A

    2010-08-01

    Patient safety is enhanced when nursing staff recognize and respond to subtle changes in a patient's condition. In this quality improvement project, simulated clinical scenarios were conducted with staff nurses on a multi-specialty surgical unit. Scenarios were developed from actual patient situations as well as from calls to the rapid response team. Nurses were given the opportunity to practice assessment, critical thinking, and communication skills. Pre- and post-project surveys were used to assess nurses' perceived level of confidence and skill in handling emergency situations. Post-project survey data showed that nurses perceived that the scenario exercises improved their confidence and skill in managing critical patient situations. In addition, the findings supported the continued use of the scenarios as a teaching strategy. The scenarios have increased nurses' awareness of early signs of patients' conditions deteriorating and have the potential to decrease the number of patient situations that escalate to emergencies. PMID:20666355

  7. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  8. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  9. 41 CFR 51-10.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 51-10.150 Section 51-10.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to Public Contracts COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 10-ENFORCEMENT OF NONDISCRIMINATION ON...

  10. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND...

  11. 41 CFR 51-10.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 51-10.150 Section 51-10.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions... of historic properties that cannot otherwise be made accessible; or (iii) Adopting other...

  12. 41 CFR 51-10.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 51-10.150 Section 51-10.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions... of historic properties that cannot otherwise be made accessible; or (iii) Adopting other...

  13. 41 CFR 51-10.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 51-10.150 Section 51-10.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to Public Contracts COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 10-ENFORCEMENT OF NONDISCRIMINATION ON...

  14. 5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... facilities. 723.150 Section 723.150 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL... ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT § 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing... otherwise be made accessible; or (iii) Adopting other innovative methods. (c) Time period for...

  15. 41 CFR 51-10.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2012-07-01 2009-07-01 true Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 51-10.150 Section 51-10.150 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions... of historic properties that cannot otherwise be made accessible; or (iii) Adopting other...

  16. 5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... facilities. 723.150 Section 723.150 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL... ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT § 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing... otherwise be made accessible; or (iii) Adopting other innovative methods. (c) Time period for...

  17. Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony; Vance, Tessa; Roberts, Jason; Ho, Michelle

    2015-04-01

    Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers can robustly deal with such uncertainty.

  18. Soil erosion risk scenarios in the Mediterranean environment using RUSLE and GIS: An application model for Calabria (southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terranova, O.; Antronico, L.; Coscarelli, R.; Iaquinta, P.

    2009-11-01

    Soil erosion by water (WSE) has become a relevant issue at the Mediterranean level. In particular, natural conditions and human impact have made the Calabria (southern Italy) particularly prone to intense WSE. The purpose of this investigation is to identify areas highly affected by WSE in Calabria by comparing the scenarios obtained by assuming control and preventive measures and actions, as well as actual conditions generated by forest fires, also in the presence of conditions of maximum rainfall erosion. Geographic Information System techniques have been adopted to treat data of reasonable spatial resolution obtained at a regional scale for application to the RUSLE model. This work is based on the comparison of such data with a basic scenario that has been defined by the present situation (present scenario). In this scenario: (i) R has been assessed by means of an experimental relation adjusted to Calabria on the basis of 5-min observations; (ii) K has been drawn from the soil map of Calabria including 160 soilscapes; (iii) LS has been estimated according to the RUSLE2 model by using (among other subfactors) a 40-m square cell DTM; (iv) C has been derived by processing the data inferred from the project Corine Land Cover, whose legend includes 35 different land uses on three levels; and (v) P has been hypothesized as equal to 1. For the remaining three hypothesized scenarios, the RUSLE factors have been adjusted according to experimental data and to data in the literature. In particular, forest areas subject to fire have been randomly generated as far as fire location, extension, structure, and intensity are concerned. The values obtained by the application of the RUSLE model have emphasized that land management by means of measures and actions for reducing WSE causes a notable reduction of the erosive rate decreasing from ~30 to 12.3 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . On the other hand, variations induced by hypothetical wildfires in forests on 10% of the regional territory

  19. Coal chemicals -- The Indian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bhattacharya, R.N.

    1998-12-31

    Presently the production of coal chemicals in India is primarily based on by-products of high temperature and low temperature carbonization of coal/lignite. There are seven major steel plants in different parts of the country, each having their own coking plants. The total production figures of coal tar and benzole from these plants are about 373,400 tonnes (te) and 40,500 te respectively. In addition, about 4,000 te of coal tar is available from the small and medium scale coking plants. There exists about 15 coal tar distillation units, mostly in the steel plants, having facilities for the recovery and processing of by-products. The total tar distillation capacity is about 1,530 tpd including 230 tpd available in the state and private sectors. Currently, only seven important chemicals, namely ammonium sulfate, benzene, toluene, xylenes, naphthalene, phenol and cresols are recovered from high temperature tar. In addition, three low temperature carbonization units are in operation. The installed capacity of the briquetting and carbonization plant at Neyveli (Tamil Nadu) is 1.5 million tpa of raw lignite designated to produce about 33,800 te of tar apart from 3,350 te of neutral oil and 2,820 te of phenols. The other two units at Ramakrishnapuram (Andhra Pradesh) and Dankuni (West Bengal) have throughputs of 900 te and 1,500 te of non-coking coal per day respectively. Chemicals likely to be available from these units are phenol, cresols, xylenols and high boiling tar acids. The by-products of coal carbonization are, however, not sufficient to meet the present day demand of organic chemicals in the country so that many of these chemicals are now obtained from petro-sources including natural gas as well as by synthetic route. This paper presents the current status of technology available in India and discusses how a change in the outlook to consider coal as a chemical feedstock rather than a fuel can make coal chemicals a viable option for chemical industry, at least

  20. Refining Gold from Existing Data

    PubMed Central

    Wade, Ted D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose of review The purpose is to review the arguments for increasing use of existing data in health research. Recent Findings The reuse of data in observational, exploratory and outcome studies, as well as in confirming other findings, is being justified on epistemological grounds as the major path to new knowledge and to the generalizing of findings to “real world” populations. It is also justified on grounds of cost, power and efficiency, even though data reuse comes with real informatics, scientific culture, societal and regulatory issues. Summary Data reuse is becoming more compelling. When contemplating new research for any purpose other than RCTs for efficacy, it is prudent to consider whether partnership with existing data holders should be part of the optimal research plan. PMID:24625777

  1. The EXIST Mission Concept Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

    2008-01-01

    EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in

  2. Cogeneration for existing alfalfa processing

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-01-01

    This study is designed to look at the application of gas-turbine generator cogeneration to a typical Nebraska alfalfa processing mill. The practicality is examined of installing a combustion turbine generator at a plant site and modifying existing facilities for generating electricity, utilizing the electricity generated, selling excess electricity to the power company and incorporating the turbine exhaust flow as a drying medium for the alfalfa. The results of this study are not conclusive but the findings are summarized.

  3. Why do stem cells exist?

    PubMed

    Heddle, J A; Cosentino, L; Dawod, G; Swiger, R R; Paashuis-Lew, Y

    1996-01-01

    Self-renewing tissues have a differentiation hierarchy such that the stem cells are the only permanent residents of the tissue, and it is in these cells that most cancerous mutations arise. The progeny of the stem cells either remain stem cells or enter a transient proliferating cell population that differentiates to produce the functional cells of the tissue. The reason that this differentiation hierarchy exists has not been established. We show here that alternative hierarchies, in which there would be no stem cells, are feasible and biologically plausible. We show that current evidence from somatic mutation frequencies at both transgenic and endogenous loci implicates cell division in the origin of most somatic mutations. We suggest, therefore, that the existence of stem cells is an evolutionary consequence of a selective pressure to avoid cancer by reducing the number of somatic mutations. The stem cell hierarchy reduces the number of cell divisions of those cells that reside permanently in the tissue, which reduces the number of somatic mutations and thus minimizes the cancer rate. In the small intestine, the existence of stem cells reduces the mutant frequency in the stem cells by about one order of magnitude. Since two or more mutations are required to transform a cell, the protective effect may be 100-fold or more. Similar factors may be expected in other tissues. PMID:8991061

  4. The role of pre-existing disturbances in the effect of marine reserves on coastal ecosystems: a modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2013-01-01

    We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

  5. The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

  6. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. PMID:26189995

  7. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  8. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  9. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

  10. Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seitzinger, S. P.; Mayorga, E.; Bouwman, A. F.; Kroeze, C.; Beusen, A. H. W.; Billen, G.; van Drecht, G.; Dumont, E.; Fekete, B. M.; Garnier, J.; Harrison, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970-2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export.

  11. Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

  12. Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent

    PubMed Central

    Nishant; Kumari, Renu

    2014-01-01

    The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

  13. Antibiotic resistance to Propionobacterium acnes: worldwide scenario, diagnosis and management.

    PubMed

    Sardana, Kabir; Gupta, Tanvi; Garg, Vijay K; Ghunawat, Sneha

    2015-07-01

    Antibiotic resistance in cutaneous Propionobacterium is a global problem. As a general rule, resistance levels are high to macrolides, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and clindamycin, while tetracyclines and levofloxacin have low resistance potential. Newer preparations like doxycycline MR and doxycycline 20 mg are subantimicrobial and may not lead to resistance. Sampling techniques are crucial to determine resistance. Genomic evaluation using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing can be useful in diagnosing mutations and mapping phylotypes of Propionobacterium acnes. Resistance may lead to slow response and relapses. Apart from benzoyl peroxide, azelaic acid, topical dapsone, oral zinc and retinoids, novel molecules with little resistance potential include octadecenedioic acid, phytosphingosine, lauric acid, retapamulin, resveratrol, T-3912 and NB-003. The use of oral retinoids and non-antibiotics like zinc can prevent resistance and help reduce the dependence on antibiotics. PMID:26025191

  14. Contextualizing Learning Scenarios According to Different Learning Management Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drira, R.; Laroussi, M.; Le Pallec, X.; Warin, B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we first demonstrate that an instructional design process of Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) systems based on a Model Driven Approach (MDA) addresses the limits of Learning Technology Standards (LTS), such as SCORM and IMS-LD. Although these standards ensure the interoperability of TEL systems across different Learning Management…

  15. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  16. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  17. Hollow current profile scenarios for advanced tokamak reactor operations

    SciTech Connect

    Gourdain, P.-A.; Leboeuf, J.-N.

    2009-11-15

    Advanced tokamak scenarios are a possible approach to boosting reactor performances. Such schemes usually trigger current holes, a particular magnetohydrodynamics equilibrium where no current or pressure gradients exist in the core of the plasma. While such equilibria have large bootstrap fractions, flat pressure profiles in the plasma core may not be optimal for a reactor. However, moderate modifications of the equilibrium current profile can lead to diamagnetism where most of the pressure gradient is now balanced by poloidal currents and the toroidal magnetic field. In this paper, we consider the properties of diamagnetic current holes, also called ''dual equilibria,'' and demonstrate that fusion throughput can be significantly increased in such scenarios. Their stability is investigated using the DCON code. Plasmas with a beta peak of 30% and an average beta of 6% are found stable to both fixed and free-boundary modes with toroidal mode numbers n=1-4, as well as Mercier and high-n ballooning modes. This is not surprising as these scenarios have a normal beta close to 3.

  18. Neutrino phenomenology of very low-energy seesaw scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gouvea, Andre de; Jenkins, James; Vasudevan, Nirmala

    2007-01-01

    The standard model augmented by the presence of gauge-singlet right-handed neutrinos proves to be an ideal scenario for accommodating nonzero neutrino masses. Among the new parameters of this 'new standard model' are right-handed neutrino Majorana masses M. Theoretical prejudice points to M much larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, but it has recently been emphasized that all M values are technically natural and should be explored. Indeed, M around 1-10 eV can accommodate an elegant oscillation solution to the liquid scintillator neutrino detector (LSND) anomaly, while other M values lead to several observable consequences. We consider the phenomenology of low-energy (M < or approx. 1 keV) seesaw scenarios. By exploring such a framework with three right-handed neutrinos, we can consistently fit all oscillation data--including those from LSND--while partially addressing several astrophysical puzzles, including anomalous pulsar kicks, heavy element nucleosynthesis in supernovae, and the existence of warm dark matter. In order to accomplish all of this, we find that a nonstandard cosmological scenario is required. Finally, low-energy seesaws - regardless of their relation to the LSND anomaly - can also be tested by future tritium beta-decay experiments, neutrinoless double-beta decay searches, and other observables. We estimate the sensitivity of such probes to M.

  19. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  20. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  1. Existing technology transfer reports. Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Schweighardt, F.K.

    1984-06-01

    From 1974 to 1980, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APCI) conducted a broad spectrum of internal research projects on coal, coal liquefaction processing, and coal liquids analysis. The sum of all of these projects is reported to the United States Department of Energy (DOE) by a set of five Existing Technology Transfer Reports under the following titles: (1) Liquefaction Process and Product Studies, DOE/OR/03054-109; (2) Filtration and Deashing Technology, DOE/OR/03054-118; (3) Dissolver Cold-Flow Modelling, DOE/OR/03054-108; (4) Second-Stage Support, DOE/OR/03054-117; and (5) Analytical Capabilities, DOE/OR/03054-116. This summary report provides an overview of the five Existing Technology Transfer Reports by highlighting the program objectives/results and listing the documents in which the original experimental data are contained. These documents are presented as either an attached appendix or as a file of raw data maintained by the US DOE and the International Coal Refining Company (ICRC).

  2. Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea.

    PubMed

    Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; Waseem, Saba; Ragonnet, Romain; McBryde, Emma S

    2016-06-15

    Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around key epidemiologic parameters, and an economic evaluation was performed. With continuation of existing programmatic strategies, overall TB incidence remained stable at 555 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% simulation interval (SI): 420, 807), but the proportion of incident cases attributable to MDR-TB increased from 16% to 35%. Comprehensive, provincewide strengthening of existing programs reduced incidence to 353 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 246, 558), with 46% being cases of MDR-TB, while incorporating programmatic management of MDR-TB into these programs reduced incidence to 233 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 198, 269) with 14% MDR-TB. Most economic costs were due to hospitalization during the intensive treatment phase. Broad scale-up of TB control activities in Western Province with incorporation of programmatic management of MDR-TB is vital if control is to be achieved. Community-based treatment approaches are important to reduce the associated economic costs. PMID:27199387

  3. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. PMID:26950650

  4. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  5. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  6. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

  7. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.

  8. Straightening: existence, uniqueness and stability

    PubMed Central

    Destrade, M.; Ogden, R. W.; Sgura, I.; Vergori, L.

    2014-01-01

    One of the least studied universal deformations of incompressible nonlinear elasticity, namely the straightening of a sector of a circular cylinder into a rectangular block, is revisited here and, in particular, issues of existence and stability are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the system of forces required to sustain the large static deformation, including by the application of end couples. The influence of geometric parameters and constitutive models on the appearance of wrinkles on the compressed face of the block is also studied. Different numerical methods for solving the incremental stability problem are compared and it is found that the impedance matrix method, based on the resolution of a matrix Riccati differential equation, is the more precise. PMID:24711723

  9. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  10. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

  11. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  12. Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

    2016-07-01

    The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521.

  13. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  14. LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement.

    PubMed

    Slagstad, Helene; Brattebø, Helge

    2012-07-01

    When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues. PMID:22516101

  15. The real world and lunar base activation scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Harrison H.

    1992-01-01

    A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

  16. Perfect storm: organizational management of patient care under natural disaster conditions.

    PubMed

    McCaughrin, William Cass; Mattammal, Maria

    2003-01-01

    Managing uncertainty is an essential attribute of organizational leadership and effectiveness. Uncertainty threatens optimal decision making by managers and, by extension, reduces the quality of patient care. Variation in the work flows of everyday patient caregiving reflects management's steps to control uncertainty, which include strategies for contending with potential disaster scenarios. Little exists in the literature that reveals how management's strategic response to controlling uncertainty in a real disaster event differs from strategies practiced in disaster simulations, with the goal of protecting patient care. Using organization theory, this article presents the application of uncertainty management to the catastrophic flooding of a major teaching hospital. A detailed description of management's strategies for patient rescue and evacuation is provided. Unique aspects of managing uncertainty stemming from a natural disaster are highlighted. Recommendations on organization responses to disasters that optimize patient care, safety, and continuity are offered to managers. PMID:14552099

  17. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

    PubMed Central

    Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  18. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    PubMed

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  19. The epistemology of AIDS in South Africa: lessons from three scenario projects.

    PubMed

    Swart, Charl; Fourie, Pieter

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the methodology of future scenario-building in the context of HIV and AIDS in Africa. It considers three scenario studies conducted in the past decade: UNAIDS (2005), Metropolitan Holdings (2006) and the AIDS Governance scenarios (2015). The article is a critical reflection of Future Studies epistemology which claims to contribute a unique heuristic niche in the study of AIDS. The article offers several methodological insights: (1) despite claims to the contrary, scenario methodology remains profoundly influenced by existing political and research agenda; instead of denying these, scenarists should acknowledge this; (2) the utility of scenario studies is strongly influenced by their unit of analysis and their time frame, which determine their applicability and therefore their policy relevance; and (3) scenario planners should guard against perpetuating the myth that this methodology is a crystal ball into the future because they are powerful tools for strategic planning about the present, rather than the distant future. In addition to these methodological insights, the article finds that future scenario studies are useful in identifying significant discursive and policy shifts in the AIDS response. PMID:26223335

  20. Does Metabolically Healthy Obesity Exist?

    PubMed Central

    Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Cornejo-Pareja, Isabel; Tinahones, Francisco J.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between obesity and other metabolic diseases have been deeply studied. However, there are clinical inconsistencies, exceptions to the paradigm of “more fat means more metabolic disease”, and the subjects in this condition are referred to as metabolically healthy obese (MHO).They have long-standing obesity and morbid obesity but can be considered healthy despite their high degree of obesity. We describe the variable definitions of MHO, the underlying mechanisms that can explain the existence of this phenotype caused by greater adipose tissue inflammation or the different capacity for adipose tissue expansion and functionality apart from other unknown mechanisms. We analyze whether these subjects improve after an intervention (traditional lifestyle recommendations or bariatric surgery) or if they stay healthy as the years pass. MHO is common among the obese population and constitutes a unique subset of characteristics that reduce metabolic and cardiovascular risk factors despite the presence of excessive fat mass. The protective factors that grant a healthier profile to individuals with MHO are being elucidated. PMID:27258304

  1. Does Metabolically Healthy Obesity Exist?

    PubMed

    Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Cornejo-Pareja, Isabel; Tinahones, Francisco J

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between obesity and other metabolic diseases have been deeply studied. However, there are clinical inconsistencies, exceptions to the paradigm of "more fat means more metabolic disease", and the subjects in this condition are referred to as metabolically healthy obese (MHO).They have long-standing obesity and morbid obesity but can be considered healthy despite their high degree of obesity. We describe the variable definitions of MHO, the underlying mechanisms that can explain the existence of this phenotype caused by greater adipose tissue inflammation or the different capacity for adipose tissue expansion and functionality apart from other unknown mechanisms. We analyze whether these subjects improve after an intervention (traditional lifestyle recommendations or bariatric surgery) or if they stay healthy as the years pass. MHO is common among the obese population and constitutes a unique subset of characteristics that reduce metabolic and cardiovascular risk factors despite the presence of excessive fat mass. The protective factors that grant a healthier profile to individuals with MHO are being elucidated. PMID:27258304

  2. Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water

  3. Twenty-Five Years of HIV: Lessons for Low Prevalence Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Sawires, Sharif; Birnbaum, Nina; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Szekeres, Greg; Gayle, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    During the initial quarter century since the discovery of HIV, international response has focused on high prevalence scenarios and concentrated epidemics. Until recently, the theoretical underpinnings of HIV prevention were largely based on these responses—the assumption that inadequate responses to concentrated epidemics within low prevalence populations could rapidly lead to generalized epidemics. The limits of these assumptions for HIV prevention in low prevalence scenarios have become evident. While examples of rapid HIV diffusion in once low prevalence scenarios exist, emergence of generalized epidemics are less likely for much of the world. This paper reviews several key issues and advances in biomedical and behavioural HIV prevention to date and highlights relevance to low prevalence scenarios. PMID:19553782

  4. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  5. [Dutch government invests in existing biobanks].

    PubMed

    Brandsma, Margreet; van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; Wijmenga, Cisca; Kiemeney, Lambertus A

    2010-01-01

    Modern research, aimed at discovering factors that influence health and disease, requires large collections of data and samples. Collaboration between biobanks is therefore essential. The Dutch hub in the network of biobanks, the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), is one of the major Dutch biobanking initiatives. It is sponsored by the Dutch government through the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). BBMRI-NL sets up collaboration between approximately 150 existing clinical and population biobanks in the Netherlands, and forms the link with the European BBMRI initiative. BBMRI-NL aims at enrichment and harmonization of existing Dutch biobanks, at data management and analysis, and at laying the legal, social and ethical foundations, in order to improve access and inter-operability, and to render the information and organization up to date. Other major Dutch initiatives are String of Pearls and LifeLines. Together these will create the conditions needed for Dutch researchers to further develop their strong position in the international biobanking field. PMID:21029488

  6. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  7. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  8. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  9. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false What energy standards... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities...

  10. 41 CFR 102-74.165 - What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What energy standards... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 74-FACILITY MANAGEMENT Facility Management Energy Conservation § 102-74.165 What energy standards must Federal agencies follow for existing facilities? Existing Federal facilities...

  11. Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilpatrick, F.A.

    1977-01-01

    On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

    1997-01-01

    ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried

  13. Mixed waste management options

    SciTech Connect

    Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

    1991-12-31

    Disposal fees for mixed waste at proposed commercial disposal sites have been estimated to be $15,000 to $40,000 per cubit foot. If such high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and attempts to answer the question: Can mixed waste be managed out of existence? Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatory and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition, no migration petition, and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly.

  14. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  15. Entrepreneur-Managers in Higher Education: (How) Do They Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birds, Rachel

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers in the United Kingdom increasingly emphasise the contribution of innovation and entrepreneurialism to the economy. Drawing on a recent ethnographic study of a university commercial enterprise, this article examines the notion of entrepreneurialism in a higher education institution as understood and practised by its employees. The…

  16. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes - Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented.

  17. Multimedia Environmental Assessment of Existing Materials Management Approaches for Communities

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Sustainable and Healthy Communities Program has a mission to develop data and tools that enable community leaders to integrate environmental, societal, and economic factors into their decision-making processes and thus foster community sustainability. This report examines on...

  18. Third Mission Activities: University Managers' Perceptions on Existing Barriers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koryakina, Tatyana; Sarrico, Cláudia S.; Teixeira, Pedro N.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of increased international competition and financial austerity, an economic development mission has become an important strategic and policy issue for European higher education. This paper aims to contribute to knowledge regarding universities' engagement with the external environment and its impact on internal governance and…

  19. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  20. Simulating climate change scenarios using an improved K-nearest neighbor model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, Mohammed; Burn, Donald H.

    2006-06-01

    An improved weather-generating model that allows nearest neighbour resampling with perturbation of the historic data is applied to generate weather data based upon plausible climate scenarios. The intent is to create an ensemble of climate scenarios that can be used for the assessment of the vulnerability of a watershed to extreme events, including both floods and droughts. Analysis of the results clearly indicates that the model adequately simulated extreme unprecedented events for five different climate change scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the increasing precipitation scenario is identified as the critical scenario for the assessment of risks associated with the occurrence of floods in the basin. The increasing temperature scenario appears to be the critical scenario for the analysis of droughts in the basin. Frequency analysis was carried out to determine the impact of potential climatic change on the occurrence of storm depths of any given magnitude. A promising potential application of the model is in rainfall-runoff modelling where the storms depths could be related to the occurrence of extreme events in the basin. The proposed model, in conjunction with a rainfall-runoff model, has the potential of providing valuable aid in developing efficient management strategies for a watershed. The model produces spatially correlated data, which is crucial for accurate runoff estimation. Although the model is applied to the Upper Thames River Basin in the Canadian province of Ontario, it is generic and transportable to any other watershed with minimal changes.

  1. New trends in diabetes management: mobile telemedicine closed-loop system.

    PubMed

    Hernando, M Elena; Gómez, Enrique J; Gili, Antonio; Gómez, Mónica; García, Gema; del Pozo, Francisco

    2004-01-01

    The rapid growth and development of information technologies over recent years, in the areas of mobile and wireless technologies is shaping a new technological scenario of telemedicine in diabetes. This telemedicine scenario can play an important role for further acceptance by diabetic patients of the existing continuous glucose monitoring systems and insulin pumps with the final goal of improving current therapeutic procedures. This paper describes a Personal Smart Assistant integrated in a multi-access telemedicine architecture for the implementation of a mobile telemedicine closed-loop system for diabetes management. The system is being evaluated within the European Union project named INCA ("Intelligent Control Assistant for Diabetes"). PMID:15718596

  2. Does "ICU psychosis" really exist?

    PubMed

    Justic, M

    2000-06-01

    In summary, ICU psychosis does not develop in all patients. Instead, many patients are at risk for hypoactive, hyperactive, or mixed hypoactive and hyperactive delirium. Prevention of delirium should always be foremost, including recognition of patients at high risk, minimal use of causative medications, and treatment of physiological conditions that are often unrelated to a patient's admitting diagnosis. When prevention fails, early diagnosis and treatment can make a marked difference in patients' outcomes. The potential adverse outcomes of delirium are well documented. These include increased mortality; increased length of stay; reduced level of functioning in the elderly, which often leads to placement in a nursing home; and stress response syndrome after hospitalization. The value of nursing in preventing delirium is evident when nurses apply their knowledge of potential causes and develop strategies to avoid these causes in their patients. Nurses provide early detection and coordinate with other members of the healthcare team to initiate a plan of care that includes prompt treatment of delirium to reduce the signs and symptoms, duration, and potential adverse sequelae of this disorder. Nursing interventions are designed to enhance patients' cognitive status, sense of security, safety, and comfort. Nurses are instrumental in providing appropriate choices, doses, and administration of medications and in recognizing side effects. Use of medications ordered to treat delirium is often left to nurses' discretion because the orders specify that the drugs should be given as needed. Finally, nurses are the ones who recognize the need for additional assistance via psychiatric consultations or for more intensive observation and management of patients to ensure quality care. PMID:11876211

  3. Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

  4. An alternative scenario for the formation of specialized protein nano-domains (cluster phases) in biomembranes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Destainville, N.

    2010-09-01

    We discuss a realistic scenario, accounting for the existence of sub-micrometric protein domains in cell membranes. At the biological level, such membrane domains have been shown to be specialized, in order to perform a determined biological task, in the sense that they gather one or a few protein species out of the hundreds of different ones that a cell membrane may contain. By analyzing the balance between mixing entropy and protein affinities, we propose that such protein sorting in distinct domains can be explained without appealing to pre-existing lipidic micro-phase separations, as in the lipid raft scenario. We show that the proposed scenario is compatible with known physical interactions between membrane proteins, even if thousands of different species coexist.

  5. Scenario-Based E-Learning Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Kathleen; Colkey, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    As it was initially implemented, e-learning did little other than supply facts and information, offering limited opportunity for interactivity and problem-solving. Designers need to find ways to address past limitations and bring the engagement of classroom training to the web. One method that merits attention is scenario-based learning. The…

  6. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  7. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  8. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  9. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  10. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  11. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  12. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  13. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics