Sample records for management existing scenario

  1. Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hassan, M Manzurul; Ahmed, Shafiul Azam; Rahman, K Anisur; Biswas, Tarit Kanti

    2008-01-01

    Background Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of information for planning. This paper seeks to document the handling practice of waste (e.g. collection, storage, transportation and disposal) along with the types and amount of wastes generated by Health Care Establishments (HCE). A total of 60 out of the existing 68 HCE in the study areas provided us with relevant information. Methods The methodology for this paper includes empirical field observation and field-level data collection through inventory, questionnaire survey and formal and informal interviews. A structured questionnaire was designed to collect information addressing the generation of different medical wastes according to amount and sources from different HCE. A number of in-depth interviews were arranged to enhance our understanding of previous and existing management practice of medical wastes. A number of specific questions were asked of nurses, hospital managers, doctors, and cleaners to elicit their knowledge. The collected data with the questionnaire survey were analysed, mainly with simple descriptive statistics; while the qualitative mode of analysis is mainly in narrative form. Results The paper shows that the surveyed HCE generate a total of 5,562 kg/day of wastes, of which about 77.4 per cent are non-hazardous and about 22.6 per cent are hazardous. The average waste generation rate for the surveyed HCE is 1.9 kg/bed/day or 0.5 kg/patient/day. The study reveals that there is no proper, systematic management of medical waste except in a few private HCE that segregate their infectious wastes. Some cleaners were found to salvage used sharps, saline bags, blood bags and test tubes for resale or reuse. Conclusion The paper reveals that lack of awareness, appropriate policy and laws, and willingness are responsible for the improper management of medical waste in Dhaka City. The paper also shows that a newly designed medical waste management system currently serves a limited number of HCE. New facilities should be established for the complete management of medical waste in Dhaka City. PMID:18221548

  2. Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M Manzurul Hassan; Shafiul Azam Ahmed; K Anisur Rahman; Tarit Kanti Biswas

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of

  3. Environmental management scenarios: Ecological implications

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John C. Ogden; Joan A. Browder; John H. Gentile; Lance H. Gunderson; Robert Fennema; John Wang

    1999-01-01

    The measure of whether a management scenario is capable of establishing regional-scale ecosystem sustainability is the degree to which it recovers the historical characteristics of the regional landscape mosaic. This study examines the ability of alternate management scenarios to recover the defining ecological features of the Everglades and South Florida landscape. Five conceptual scenarios are evaluated for recovering and sustaining

  4. COMPREHENSIVE WATER MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING

    Microsoft Academic Search

    E. MANOLI; G. ARAMPATZIS; D. ASSIMACOPOULOS

    The assessment of the applicability and suitability of potential measures and instruments is crucial in the strategic planning of water resources management. This paper presents a methodology founded on scenario analysis for assessing potentially applicable water management options in a regional context with respect to their efficiency, extent of application, cost and environmental impact. Formulation, analysis and evaluation of the

  5. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacomelli, P.; Rossetti, A.; Brambilla, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  6. Management of keratoconus: current scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Vishal Jhanji; Namrata Sharma; Rasik B Vajpayee

    2010-01-01

    Keratoconus is an ectatic corneal dystrophy and is a leading indication for corneal transplantation surgery worldwide. The disease was first described in detail more than 150 years ago by Dr John Nottingham, but the understanding of the disease and its management have undergone significant changes over the last few decades. Corneal specialists have adopted new techniques and technologies for the

  7. Enrollment Management Study: Five Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albers, James R.; Burns, James A.

    The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…

  8. Academic Administration and Management Scenarios on the Semantic Web

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shakeel A. Khoja; Hugh C. Davis; Andrew M. Gravell

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This paper describes scenarios developed as part of the Ed-Scene project which,aims,to provide intelligent services to the academic stakeholders (teachers, students, administrators, employers) by semantically managing learning resources in order to provide a value-added semantics layer where semantic annotation, query and reasoning can be carried out to support management requirements in Ed-Scene scenarios, such as teaching module allocation among

  9. CCIEA PHASE II REPORT 2012: MANAGEMENT TESTING AND SCENARIOS MANAGEMENT TESTING AND SCENARIOS IN THE

    E-print Network

    ....................................................................................................................................766 Trade-offs among ecosystem components, including human well ................................................................................................................................................................................751 Human population growth.....................................................................................................763 Human well-being across scenarios

  10. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    PubMed

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153

  11. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; K?y?k, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novovi?, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1. PMID:25762565

  12. An Objective Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Water Management Scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    B. Srdjevic; Y. D. P. Medeiros; A. S. Faria

    2004-01-01

    Advanced computer models are commonly used to simulate reservoir system's performance. If the number of possible management scenarios is large, it can be extremely difficult to follow related system's operation and get a valuable picture on its spatial and temporal behavior. The decision maker or analyst can be overburdened by quantity and complexity of information generated by model, particularly if

  13. Control Based Sensor Management for a Multiple Radar Monitoring Scenario

    E-print Network

    Kokar, Mieczyslaw M.

    Control Based Sensor Management for a Multiple Radar Monitoring Scenario Yong Xun and Mieczyslaw M by controlling both the generation of the tuning requests and the scheduling. According to the control theory metaphor of software development, we map this problem onto a control architecture with one system

  14. Coastal Resources The Center for Coastal Resources Management exists to

    E-print Network

    Management exists to develop and support integrated and adaptive management of coastal zone resourcesAnnual Report 2008 Center for Coastal Resources Management #12;The Center for Coastal Resources a mix of state funding and grant/contract support. #12;Center for Coastal Resources Management 2008

  15. An examination of the ethical beliefs of managers using selected scenarios in a cross-cultural environment

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Russell Abratt; Deon Nel; Nicola Susan Higgs

    1992-01-01

    Academic literature addressing the topic of business ethics has paid little attention to cross-cultural studies of business ethics. Uncertainty exists concerning the effect of culture on ethical beliefs. The purpose of this research is to compare the ethical beliefs of managers operating in South Africa and Australia. Responses of 52 managers to a series of ethical scenarios were sought. Results

  16. Agricultural water management scenarios to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foglia, Laura; Harter, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In this work we combine different tools to evaluate impact of water management scenarios in an agricultural basin. Here we first develop a spatio-temporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. In a second step, the water budget model is used to provide recharge and pumping values for each field as input for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2005. Results of the simulations obtained by means of the simple coupled soil water budget model/analytical model have been used to select and design with the engagement of stakeholders feasible management scenarios. The latter have been implemented in the numerical groundwater model. Results and insights from both modelling approaches are discussed. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations obtained with the two approaches suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance - stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site specific feasibility studies. The further implementation of the management scenarios into the numerical groundwater model provides details on the local impact of the results and more insights about specific data collection and needed infrastructures in order to practically develop the management scenarios.

  17. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  18. Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

  19. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  20. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    PubMed

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the corresponding system patterns in terms of the proposed architecture, and make this concrete by presenting some comprehensive interaction examples as comic strip stories. Next, we discuss the implementation requirements and how they can be met with the available technologies, discuss a possible architecture, refine it in the concrete case of the TuCSoN coordination technology, present a subsystem prototype and discuss its properties in the Butlers perspective. PMID:24555169

  1. E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.

    PubMed

    Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T

    2011-01-01

    Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed. PMID:20151189

  2. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

  3. The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.

    PubMed

    Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

    2013-12-01

    The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

  4. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  5. Design in Practice: Scenarios for Improving Management Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlenker, Lee; Chantelot, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to design in business, Design Thinking has had little impact on the quality of business school education. Building upon the foundations of long-standing critiques of management education and the potential for student-centric learning, the authors propose that the use of Design in Practice can significantly…

  6. A framework for assessing integrated water and energy management scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Debborah Marsh; Deepak Sharma

    Water and energy management strategies in Australia have undergone un- precedented change over the last two decades, as a result of reforms initi- ated by State and Federal governments. These reforms brought about changes to the structure, ownership and regulatory arrangements of the sectors. While the dominant focus of reform has been economic, devel- opments in the recent past, for

  7. Efficient Key Management for Enforcing Access Control in Outsourced Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blundo, Carlo; Cimato, Stelvio; de Capitani di Vimercati, Sabrina; de Santis, Alfredo; Foresti, Sara; Paraboschi, Stefano; Samarati, Pierangela

    Data outsourcing is emerging today as a successful paradigm allowing individuals and organizations to exploit external servers for storing and distributing data. While trusted to properly manage the data, external servers are often not authorized to read them, therefore requiring data to be encrypted. In such a context, the application of an access control policy requires different data to be encrypted with different keys so to allow the external server to directly enforce access control and support selective dissemination and access.

  8. Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

    The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

  9. Description and Analysis of Existing Knowledge Management Frameworks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Clyde W. Holsapple; Kshiti D. Joshi

    1999-01-01

    There is a growing recognition in the business community about the importance of managing knowledge. Some organizations have taken initiatives to understand and manage this critical resource. Major organizations have appointed chief knowledge officers (CKOs) and chief learning officers to formally initiate and cultivate KM activities in their organizations. In spite of these initiatives, the bulk of organizations still have

  10. Adaptive Process Management in Highly Dynamic and Pervasive Scenarios

    E-print Network

    de Leoni, Massimiliano

    2009-01-01

    Process Management Systems (PMSs) are currently more and more used as a supporting tool for cooperative processes in pervasive and highly dynamic situations, such as emergency situations, pervasive healthcare or domotics/home automation. But in all such situations, designed processes can be easily invalidated since the execution environment may change continuously due to frequent unforeseeable events. This paper aims at illustrating the theoretical framework and the concrete implementation of SmartPM, a PMS that features a set of sound and complete techniques to automatically cope with unplanned exceptions. PMS SmartPM is based on a general framework which adopts the Situation Calculus and Indigolog.

  11. Management of onychomycosis and co-existing tinea pedis.

    PubMed

    Lipner, Shari R; Scher, Richard K

    2015-05-01

    Onychomycosis is a common nail infection that often co-exists with tinea pedis. Surveys have suggested the diseases co-exist in at least one third of patients, although actual numbers may be a lot higher due to significant under-reporting. The importance of evaluating and treating both diseases is being increasingly recognized, however, data on improved outcomes, and the potential to minimize re-infection are limited. We review a recent post hoc analysis of two large studies treating mild to moderate onychomycosis with efinaconazole topical solution, 10%, demonstrating that complete cure rates of onychomycosis are significantly improved when any co-existing tinea pedis is also treated.

    J Drugs Dermatol. 2015;14(5):492-494. PMID:25942668

  12. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  13. How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

  14. Building New Water Resources Projects or Managing Existing Systems?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nathan Buras

    2000-01-01

    The planning of regional water resources systems and their subsequent management has to rest firmly on three foundations: availability of water of adequate quality, demand for water expressed quantitatively for specific periods of time, and direct, indirect, and externality costs. Mathematical models of hydrosystems represent only a segment of the real world. The basic science of hydrology is an empirical

  15. Research on Commercial Patterns of China Existing Building Energy Retrofit Based on Energy Management Contract 

    E-print Network

    Han, Z.; Liu, C.; Sun, J.

    2006-01-01

    Existing building energy retrofit is one of the keys of building energy efficiency in China. According to experience in developed countries, implementation of energy management contract (EMC) is crucial to promote existing building energy retrofit...

  16. Issues and Scenarios for Self-Managing Grid Middleware Philippe Collet

    E-print Network

    Boyer, Edmond

    Issues and Scenarios for Self-Managing Grid Middleware Philippe Collet Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis, I3S - CNRS -- EPU, 930 route des Colles 06903 Sophia Antipolis, France philippe.collet@polytech.unice.fr David Manset Maat Gknowledge Méjico, 2. 45004 Toledo, Spain dmanset@maat-g.com ABSTRACT Despite

  17. An optimization method based on scenario analysis for watershed management under uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lijing; Dai, Yongli; Fan, Yingying

    2007-05-01

    In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management. PMID:17377728

  18. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. F. Escudero; J. L. de la Fuente; C. Garcia; F. J. Prieto

    1996-01-01

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power generation management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. They describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model

  19. Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

    2008-04-01

    To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions. PMID:18488629

  20. Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Timo Karjalainen; Ari Pussinen; Jari Liski; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Thies Eggers; Tuija Lapveteläinen; Terhi Kaipainen

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of forests are included in the analysis. Two forest management and climate scenarios were applied.

  1. Urban water budgets: a comparative study of three landscape management scenarios in southern California

    Microsoft Academic Search

    N. S. Bijoor; D. Haver; D. E. Pataki

    2009-01-01

    The fate of irrigation water in urban landscapes is highly uncertain, due in large part to uncertainties in urban ecohydrology. In this study, we compared evapotranspiration (ET), leaf-level stomatal conductance, and soil moisture of three landscapes managed under typical, retrofitted, and low-impact scenarios. The typical landscape consisted of fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub), a common cool-season turfgrass species. Watering was

  2. Scenario-based virtual network infrastructure management in research and educational testbeds with VNUML

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Fermín Galán Márquez; David Fernández; Walter Fuertes; Miguel Gómez; Jorge E. López De Vergara

    2009-01-01

    Virtual machine technologies have evolved during the last 40 years from mainframe to commodity (x86) systems. Although these\\u000a techniques are nowadays quite mature in data center environments (consolidation, service continuity, etc.), scenario-based\\u000a virtual infrastructure management tools keep evolving in research and educational areas. In this work, one such tool is described,\\u000a Virtual Network User Mode Linux (VNUML), which has been successfully

  3. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Olivier JGJ

    2007-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using\\u000astatistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying\\u000aemission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future\\u000aemissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the\\u000adevelopment of the volume of air traffic, of specific fuel consumption\\u000aand of the emission factors. In addition, some policy

  4. Impact assessment of combined climate and management scenarios on groundwater resources and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candela, Lucila; von Igel, Wolf; Javier Elorza, F.; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2009-10-01

    SummaryClimate change impact on a groundwater dependent wetland and natural recharge has been investigated in the Inca-Sa Pobla coastal aquifer for the year 2025. Temperature and precipitation based on the downscaled output from a general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a groundwater model to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater. Management practices were based on changes in the volume of water extracted for agricultural and domestic purposes. Climate change impacts on the hydrogeological system were based on downscaled HadCM3 outputs for future medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) greenhouse gas scenarios developed by the IPCC [IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., Van Der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp]. Assessment of the impacts on the water level of the wetland were carried out by estimating the flow rate of springs discharging from the aquifer obtained by changes of agricultural land use and water supply allocation and variation of recharge according climate scenarios. The greatest reduction in recharge was observed in scenario A2 (-21%), while recharge in scenario B2 remained relatively unchanged (-4%). However, as uncertainties arising from GCM outputs maybe greater than the differences simulated here results are only indicative of the system response. In order to preserve the spring discharge at its current level (17 Mm 3/yr), which successfully prevents the wetland from drying up, a decrease in groundwater extraction is needed. In addition, the reallocation of agricultural wells is recommended under both scenarios. Spring discharge was affected the most by agricultural wells located near the wetland, as indicated by the sensitivity analysis.

  5. Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do Nothing Approach" based on the defined environmental, health, social, and economical criteria, the most important being related to the environment and the economy. The robustness of the achieved ranking of AR management options has been tested by changing the selected criteria, criteria importance and criteria structure. The final analysis shows that all six AR management strategies are better than "doing nothing". The implementation of groundwater artificial recharge with maximum possible infiltration of secondary treated effluent in conjunction with sustainable reuse of the recharged water for agricultural development is the most effective AR solution to the water resources problems of the Gaza Strip.

  6. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping groundwater levels near the stream higher, and the stream gaining longer into the dry summer period.

  7. Situation-Based Access Control: privacy management via modeling of patient data access scenarios.

    PubMed

    Peleg, Mor; Beimel, Dizza; Dori, Dov; Denekamp, Yaron

    2008-12-01

    Access control is a central problem in privacy management. A common practice in controlling access to sensitive data, such as electronic health records (EHRs), is Role-Based Access Control (RBAC). RBAC is limited as it does not account for the circumstances under which access to sensitive data is requested. Following a qualitative study that elicited access scenarios, we used Object-Process Methodology to structure the scenarios and conceive a Situation-Based Access Control (SitBAC) model. SitBAC is a conceptual model, which defines scenarios where patient's data access is permitted or denied. The main concept underlying this model is the Situation Schema, which is a pattern consisting of the entities Data-Requestor, Patient, EHR, Access Task, Legal-Authorization, and Response, along with their properties and relations. The various data access scenarios are expressed via Situation Instances. While we focus on the medical domain, the model is generic and can be adapted to other domains. PMID:18511349

  8. Sense The Physical, Walkthrough The Virtual, Manage The Co (existing) Spaces: A Database Perspective

    E-print Network

    Tung, Anthony Kum Hoe

    Sense The Physical, Walkthrough The Virtual, Manage The Co (existing) Spaces: A Database In a co-space environment, the physical space and the virtual space co-exist, and interact simultaneously. While the phys- ical space is virtually enhanced with information, the virtual space is continuously

  9. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their linkage and the involvement of stakeholders will have to be taken into account when constructing future scenarios of water supply and demand on the islands. First results on scenario studies based on this approach will be presented.

  10. Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Kassa, Habtemariam; Campbell, Bruce; Sandewall, Mats; Kebede, Mammo; Tesfaye, Yemiru; Dessie, Gessesse; Seifu, Abebe; Tadesse, Menfese; Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Kajsa

    2009-02-01

    We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process; and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels. PMID:18439742

  11. An analysis of possible scenarios of medical waste management in Bangladesh

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nasima Akter; Josef Tränkler

    2003-01-01

    This study investigated medical waste management (MWM) practices in Bangladesh: its present constraints, the health effect of existing practices, and the weaknesses of the current system. Suggestions for improvement of the MWM situation have also been offered. Those interviewed included hospital staff, waste pickers and local residents. In-depth field observations and a questionnaire survey were conducted in June-July 2000 and

  12. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is exceeded, and decreases as the forest regenerates. In all cases, the effects are greatest in small to intermediate sized streams where wood is the dominant driver of channel morphology, and become negligible in large streams governed by fluvial processes.

  13. Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

    2015-04-01

    Humans rely on ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services, namely water supply and water damage mitigation, and promoting forests is a widely used management strategy for the provision of hydrological services. Therefore, it is important to model how forests will contribute for this provision, taking into account the environmental characteristics of each region, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns of societal demand. In addition, ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is one of the aims included in the European Union biodiversity strategy to 2020. On the other hand, forest management for hydrological services must consider possible trade-offs with other services provision, as well as with biodiversity conservation. Accurate modeling and mapping of both hydrological services and biodiversity conservation value is thus important to support spatial planning and land management options involving forests. The objectives of this study were: to analyze the provision and spatial dynamics of hydrological services under two forest cover change scenarios (oak and eucalyptus/pine) compared to the current shrubland-dominated landscape; and to evaluate their spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed (250km2), in northwest Portugal, was used as case-study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services (water supply quantity, timing and quality; soil erosion and flood regulation), and was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments, nitrates and evapotranspiration. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions and field measurements. The maps for each service under the different scenarios were produced at the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) level. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert valuation applied to a land cover map. Statistical correlations between hydrological services provision and biodiversity conservation value were assessed using the Spearman rank correlation. The current delivery of hydrological services in the Vez watershed is higher at the high and low mountain sub-basins, with lower provision in the valley. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and the oak scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine scenario, which performs better for flood regulation and erosion control, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. However, this scenario is the one with more spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value, especially inside protected areas. Several strategies may be suggested for effective land use planning in the Vez watershed. Eucalyptus/pine is the scenario with the best results for flood regulation and soil erosion control, associated to the positive revenues from the pulp production industry. However, cautions should be taken regarding strategies for biodiversity conservation (preferably by favoring native oak species), as well as the potential increase in fire risk. This study highlights SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping hydrological services generated at the watershed scale, therefore contributing to improve the options for land management.

  14. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making. PMID:21214905

  15. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks. PMID:23314394

  16. Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Loveland, Thomas R

    2007-01-01

    Background Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. PMID:17650336

  17. Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Barbara C. Wales; Lowell H. Suring; Miles A. Hemstrom

    2007-01-01

    Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

  18. Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Barbara C. Wales; Miles A. HemstromC

    Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and compared vegetation trends against the natural range of variability

  19. Was ist der EXIST-priME-Cup? Der EXIST-priME-Cup ist ein Management-und Entrepreneurship-Wettbewerb, der

    E-print Network

    Möbius, Bernd

    Was ist der EXIST-priME-Cup? Der EXIST-priME-Cup ist ein Management- und Entrepreneurship wird in 30 bis 40 Master-Cups (Vorrunden), 6 Professional-Cups (Zwischenrun- den, qualifiziert sind die Gewinner der Master-Cups) und dem Champions-Cup (Finale, Gewinner der Professional-Cups), der in Berlin

  20. Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced that feed the watershed management model under different sensitivity scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Vulnerability is observed on the produced base flows of the moorlands ecosystem due to a decrease in moorlands' area and to climate variability-related impacts during the 50 years of simulation. This system-level vulnerability has significant effects on the water supply available for downstream demand sites, including rural and agricultural users that rely exclusively on a reservoir.

  1. Precious Corals in Hawaii: Discovery of a New Bed and Revised Management Measures for Existing Beds

    E-print Network

    Precious Corals in Hawaii: Discovery of a New Bed and Revised Management Measures for Existing Beds Introduction and History of Hawaii's Precious Coral Fishery Precious corals, Corallium spp., were precious corals in the Hawaiian Islands has experienced an on-and-off history for almost 40 years. In spite

  2. The economics of managing carbon via forestry: Assessment of existing studies

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Roger A. Sedjo; Joe Wisniewski; Alaric V. Sample; John D. Kinsman

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess the existing studies on the economics of using forests as a means of mitigating atmospheric carbon build-up. This assessment addresses conceptual and empirical issues and provides a basis for a comprehensive and cost efficient forest management strategy. Critical needs and opportunities for future research are identified.

  3. A Study on Energy Management Contracting Pattern in Existing Building Energy Conservation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Wei Cai; Xiaodong Wen; Wei Gu

    2010-01-01

    The chief object of the present study is to demonstrate and the characters and functions of Energy Management Contracting (EMC) in existing building energy conservation. According to the top topics of energy conservation and sustainable development, the patterns of EMC in building energy conservation were analyzed. The main technical measures for building facilities energy conservation were introduced, and a case

  4. Effects of hypothetical management scenarios on simulated water temperatures in the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Risley, John C.

    2000-01-01

    Water temperature is one of the most important factors determining the health of fish and other aquatic organisms. If water temperatures warm beyond a critical threshold, particularly during the sensitive life stages of fish, survival can markedly decrease. In 1996, the State of Oregon adopted a revised maximum water temperature standard of 17.8oC (degrees Celsius) (64oF [degrees Fahrenheit]) for most waterways, including the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon. To assess water temperature conditions in the Tualatin River, a recent cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Unified Sewerage Agency of Washington County, Oregon, used two dynamic-flow heat-transport models, DAFLOW-BLTM (river mile [RM] 63.9-RM 38.4) and CE-QUAL-W2 (RM 3 8.4-RM 3.4). After the models were calibrated with data collected during the 1994 low-flow season, they were used to simulate various hypothetical water-management scenarios. Results from the first 10 scenarios were published in an earlier report. This report presents the results of an additional 16 scenarios for both 1994 and 1995 conditions. In all 16 scenarios, the State's temperature standard (17.8oC) was exceeded in much of the lower reaches of the Tualatin River during the warmer months in both years.The effect of diverting 1.33 ft3/s (cubic feet per second) of Rock Creek Wastewater-Treatment plant (WWTP) effluent for irrigation was evaluated. Temperatures downstream of that facility (RM 38.1) for most months decreased about 0.05oC or less. Farther downstream, near RM 10, the effect was almost negligible. The effect of the diversion is slightly more apparent in the 1994 simulation than in the 1995 simulation. In a similar follow-up scenario, a constant flow of 1.33 ft3/s was withdrawn from the river at RM 37.3 and an additional constant flow of 2.0 ft3/s was released from Henry Hagg Lake to compensate. The effect of this diversion/augmentation on the river system was also fairly minimal for both 1994 and 1995. Temperatures generally decreased from RM 60.0 to RM 3.4 by about 0.05 to 0.1oC. For most months, the overall cooling resulting from this scenario was slightly greater than the cooling resulting from the former scenario.In another set of scenarios, the effect of piping and then releasing Rock Creek WWTP effluent at two upstream locations (RM 43.8 and RM 55.2) was evaluated. A constant flow of 5 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) was released at each upstream location, in addition to a constant release of either 10, 20, or 30 Mgal/d of effluent at RM 38.1. Temperatures increased between RM 55.2 and RM 38.1 by about 1.0oC or less, but were still within compliance with the water-quality standard. Downstream of RM 38.1 the river temperature decreased (generally 0.6oC or less) if the release from Rock Creek WWTP was only 10 Mgal/d. If the release from Rock Creek WWTP was 20 or 30 Mgal/d, temperatures downstream of RM 38.1 generally increased. However, the magnitude of the increase was generally less than 1.0oC. The temperature effect resulting from constant 25, 45, or 65 Mgal/d effluent releases from the Rock Creek (RM 38.1) and Durham (RM 9.3) WWTPs was evaluated. Temperatures throughout the reach downstream of Rock Creek WWTP and, to a lesser extent downstream of Durham WWTP, increased proportionately. The magnitude of the increases was as much as 0.6, 1.5, and 2.2oC for the three scenarios, respectively.In another scenario, a cooler water-temperature data set, representing more shaded 'natural' background conditions, was used as input to the model upper boundary at Gaston (RM 63.9). Water temperatures decreased substantially between RM 63.9 and the confluence with Scoggins Creek (RM 60.0) by as much as 4.0ooC. In a follow-up scenario, the same model upper boundary condition was used in conjunction with the 'natural' background conditions scenario from an earlier study. Water temperatures again decreased substantially between RM 63.9 and the confluence with Scoggins Creek

  5. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Fuente, J.L. de la [Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain); Prieto, F.J. [Univ. Carlos III, Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Statistics and Econometrics

    1995-12-31

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems and uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. This approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The code have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  6. PCM Climate Change Scenario Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, R. N.; Van Rheenen, N. T.; Payne, J. T.; Hamlet, A. F.; Wood, A. W.

    2001-12-01

    This paper explores the water resources impacts associated with climate change scenarios produced by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin (the Central Valley - CV) in California. Three transient climate ensembles from the PCM are used as inputs to a distributed macroscale hydrology model to produce daily transient streamflow scenarios throughout the two basins for the period 1998-2048. Water resource simulation models are then used to predict, on a monthly time-step, the effects of the climate change scenarios on streamflow timing and volume. In the strongly snowmelt dominated CRB, water resources impacts are associated primarily with changes in precipitation volumes (and secondarily by relatively small temperature changes) that reduce summer water supplies via reductions in winter snowpack. A one-month shift in the hydrologic peak endangers storage efficiencies for the CRB, which currently lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate winter flows in normal years. The shift exacerbates allocation problems during the late summer and early fall, while complicating the management of the flood season. Agricultural withdrawals, hydropower generation and federally-mandated streamflow requirements are threatened. In the CV, the climate change scenario temperature changes are larger than in the CRB, and the CV is affected more equally by changes in temperature and precipitation than is the CRB. Since water allocations in the CV are strongly dominated by irrigation, overall system reliability is reduced by the resulting streamflow timing and shifts and volume changes. The northern half of the CV experiences the greatest loss of snowpack, hence summer streamflows, when temperatures warm. Since the reservoirs in the northern portion of the CV serve agricultural, municipal, and industrial surface water needs for the entire region, even subtle shifts in streamflow timing and volume under current operational strategies pose severe problems. The predicted changes in future streamflows under climate change conditions will decrease reliability for hydropower generation, water supply, releases for fisheries support and flood control. To address these concerns in the CRB and CV, a series of operational alternatives are developed that mitigate future economic, hydropower and environmental impacts on the system. >http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~palmer/ACPI/home.htm

  7. Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

    Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

  8. Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

    2011-12-01

    There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

  9. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

  10. Development of Energy Consumption Database Management System of Existing Large Public Buildings 

    E-print Network

    Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Sun, D.

    2006-01-01

    ICEBO2006, Shenzhen, China Policy for Energy Efficiency and Comfort, Vol.VII-3-1 Development of Energy Consumption Database Management System of Existing Large Public Buildings1 Yunhua Li Jili Zhang Dexing...-conditioning System in Some Public Building. FULID MACHINERY. 2003, 31(3):42~46.(In Chinese) [3] Li Yuyun, Zhang Chunzhi, Zeng Shengzhi. Analysis of air-conditioning energy consumption in commercial buildings of Wuhan.HV&AC. 2002,32(4):85~87.(In Chinese) [4...

  11. Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Necmioglu, Ocal; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana; Aksari, Dogan; Koseoglu, Aysegul; Ozer, Ceren; Comoglu, Mustafa; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Wächter, Joachim

    2013-04-01

    On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI. KOERI, representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (TWP) responsibilities for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Based on this profound experience KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios in the context of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS activities. However, KOERI's, most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria in order to meet ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for a hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situation in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise. Experiences and results gained with the TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported.

  12. Optimizing irrigation management using CropSyst: Solving water allocation problems under Climate Change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meza, F. J.; Maureira, F.; Stockle, C.

    2012-12-01

    Irrigation is fundamental to achieve economically viable yields in Mediterranean and semi-arid areas. Under normal conditions, irrigation systems are designed considering unlimited water supply and in many cases operated at relatively low marginal costs. Total satisfaction of plant water demands is seen as the main objective to maximize crop productivity. This paradigm is currently challenged by higher pressure on water resources as a consequence of economic and population growth, increasing exposure to impacts associated to droughts. In addition, future climate projections for these regions show likely increase in temperature and significant reductions in precipitation that will affect snowmelt dynamics and streamflows. This new scenario requires an efficient management of water resources at all levels, and especially to explore irrigation alternatives to maximize productivity with limited water resources. Crop Simulation models can become a very attractive tool to evaluate ex ante the results of different irrigation strategies. In this study, we used CropSyst to simulate the responses of maize as function of multiple combinations of monthly irrigation decisions. We generated six irrigation treatments that represented a range from 100% to 50% irrigation water demands. Each treatment was evaluated using a series of daily climate in the basin of Limari, Chile. Model results showed that crop productivity can be improved when compared to standard irrigation practices that consider constant irrigation reductions proportional to expected decreases in water availability.

  13. Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.

    1990-08-01

    The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.

  14. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials. PMID:23369357

  15. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  16. The future of the Salton Sea under proposed lower Colorado River basin water management scenarios 

    E-print Network

    Kjelland, Michael Edward

    2009-05-15

    distributions were fit to the monthly datasets. Monthly distributions were used to preserve seasonality when modeling future climate scenarios. Additionally, binomial and multinomial logistic regression models were utilized to determine the relationships...

  17. Modeling scenarios for water resources management in a semi-arid catchment "Merguellil - Tunisia"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abouabdillah, A.; Lo Porto, A.; de Girolamo, A. M.; Sakka, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the Mediterranean climatic zone, also labeled as semi-arid area, hydrological processes are largely variable both in time and space due to the high variability of rainfall regime, the influence of topography and the spatial distribution of geology, soil and land use. These processes may also have changed due to a range of human activities such as land use changes, dams building, soil and water conservations works. Besides, there is a general agreement that global climate change is taking place in the Mediterranean basin. The Merguellil catchment (Central Tunisia), as a typical Mediterranean semi-arid basin, suffers regular water shortage aggravated by current drought with different degrees of frequency, intensity and severity. In addition, the hydrological regime has been changed over the last decade in this catchment. The construction of the large El Haouareb dam (1989) increases the surface storage and evaporations losses. Soil and water Conservation Works (SWCW) (ie. benches terraces) and others small and large dams have altered the hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-2000) model was used in order to simulate the water and nutrient balance at the catchment scale. The simulation results revealed that evapotranspiration is the major component (91%) of the hydrological balance. Hydrological Calibration (1992-1994) and validation (1996-1998) have been carried out referring to a daily flow data at the Hafouz flowgage. The model performance was satisfactory and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranges between 0.3 to 0.5. The water quality simulation shows that Phosphorus simulated concentrations better matched existing measurements. In order to improve the availability of high quality water, three scenarios were generated. Firstly, the total or partial removal of SWCWs from the upstream area has shown an increase of the surface runoff and sediment loading at the outlet. Secondly, by reducing 20% in the applied fertilizers, no change was detected in the crop yield, whereas on a yearly scale, it has been noted a reduction in sediment and nutrient loads. Finally to assess the potential impact of climate change, the predicted precipitations and temperatures (for 2020, 2050 and 2080) from the general circulation model HadCm3 developed by UK Hadley Center for climatic prediction and research, were used. All the components of the water and nutrient balance are foreseen to decrease. A longer arid period in summer is also predicted leading to a decrease of the sediment and nutrient load in that period.

  18. Formation Scenarios

    E-print Network

    Rosemary F. G. Wyse

    1999-11-18

    I discuss various proposed formation scenarios for the metal-poor components of the Milky Way Galaxy, emphasising the stellar halo and the thick disk. Interactions and accretion played a significant role in Galactic evolution, in particular at earlier epochs. The present observations favour a scenario by which the thick disk formed through the heating of a pre-existing thin stellar disk, with the heating mechanism being the merging of a satellite galaxy. A remnant `moving group' of the satellite would provide strong support for this scenario, and may have been detected. The field stars in the stellar halo probably formed in early small-scale star-forming regions, which subsequently disrupted. Late accretion is not important for the bulk of the stellar halo. The stellar initial mass function shows no evidence of variations, and indeed shows evidence of being invariant, even in companion satellite galaxies.

  19. A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

  20. PCM Climate Change Scenario Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources Management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. N. Palmer; N. T. Van Rheenen; J. T. Payne; A. F. Hamlet; A. W. Wood

    2001-01-01

    This paper explores the water resources impacts associated with climate change scenarios produced by the NCAR\\/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin (the Central Valley - CV) in California. Three transient climate ensembles from the PCM are used as inputs to a distributed macroscale hydrology model

  1. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

  2. Urban water budgets: a comparative study of three landscape management scenarios in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bijoor, N. S.; Haver, D.; Pataki, D. E.

    2009-12-01

    The fate of irrigation water in urban landscapes is highly uncertain, due in large part to uncertainties in urban ecohydrology. In this study, we compared evapotranspiration (ET), leaf-level stomatal conductance, and soil moisture of three landscapes managed under typical, retrofitted, and low-impact scenarios. The typical landscape consisted of fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub), a common cool-season turfgrass species. Watering was controlled by a timer and occurred on a daily basis, representative of irrigation by most homeowners. The retrofitted landscape consisted of seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum), a warm-season species, and watering was based on measurements of soil moisture. The low-impact landscape consisted of mixed species of cool-season native sedge (Carex), and watering was based on measurements of weather conditions. The amount of irrigation received was highest in the typical landscape, and lowest in the retrofitted landscape. We hypothesized that the low-impact landscape would have the highest irrigation efficiency or IE (ET/applied irrigation water) while the typical landscape would have the lowest, due to differences in stomatal conductance and soil moisture. ET was measured using a chamber technique, and stomatal conductance was determined using a porometer. Destructive samples were used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture was measured using time domain reflectometry (TDR). We found no significant difference in soil moisture among landscapes, except in spring when the retrofitted landscape was drier than the other two. The average annual ET was similar among landscapes, though there were large seasonal differences. In the fall, the ET of sedge was higher than fescue, and paspalum did not differ from the other two species. In the winter, the ET of the warm-season grass paspalum was lower than the cool-season sedge and similar to fescue. In spring, there were no differences among species. In summer, the ET of paspalum was higher than the other two species, which did not differ. Species differences in stomatal conductance were usually similar to ET, and the highest conductances were from paspalum during the summer. Below canopy vapor pressure deficit was extremely low (<0.5 kPa), suggesting low evaporative losses. Due to high LAI, ET is likely dominated by transpiration. The typical landscape had the lowest IE of 40%. It was unexpected that the low-impact landscape had only a slightly higher IE of 49%, while the highest IE of 68% was of the retrofitted landscape. Even in a high IE landscape, it is surprising that nearly one-third of applied irrigation may be lost as drainage or runoff. Along with the large volume of inefficient water use, drainage and runoff from turfgrass may contain pesticides and fertilizer, adding to possible environmental consequences.

  3. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. PMID:24161647

  4. CO2 deserts: implications of existing CO2 supply limitations for carbon management.

    PubMed

    Middleton, Richard S; Clarens, Andres F; Liu, Xiaowei; Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan S

    2014-10-01

    Efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change will require deep reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the scale of gigatonnes per year. CO2 capture and utilization and/or storage technologies are a class of approaches that can substantially reduce CO2 emissions. Even though examples of this approach, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, are already being practiced on a scale >0.05 Gt/year, little attention has been focused on the supply of CO2 for these projects. Here, facility-scale data newly collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was processed to produce the first comprehensive map of CO2 sources from industrial sectors currently supplying CO2 in the United States. Collectively these sources produce 0.16 Gt/year, but the data reveal the presence of large areas without access to CO2 at an industrially relevant scale (>25 kt/year). Even though some facilities with the capability to capture CO2 are not doing so and in some regions pipeline networks are being built to link CO2 sources and sinks, much of the country exists in "CO2 deserts". A life cycle analysis of the sources reveals that the predominant source of CO2, dedicated wells, has the largest carbon footprint further confounding prospects for rational carbon management strategies. PMID:25137398

  5. SEISMIC RISK SCENARIOS FOR AN EFFICIENT SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF THESSALONIKI (GREECE)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    KYRIAZIS PITILAKIS; MARIA ALEXOUDI; SOTIRIS ARGYROUDIS; ANASTASIOS ANASTASIADIS

    This paper presents the methodology developed in the framework of the RISK-UE project for the creation of earthquake-risk scenarios in urban systems. The main steps of the methodology are illustrated through an application in Thessaloniki. It is shown that RISK-UE methodology is a general and modular methodology, based on seismic hazard assessment, systematic inventory and typology of the elements at

  6. Scenario of a dirty bomb in an urban environment and acute management of radiation poisoning and injuries.

    PubMed

    Chin, F K C

    2007-10-01

    In the new security environment, there is a clear and present danger of terrorists using non-conventional weapons to inflict maximum psychological and economic damage on their targets. This article examines two scenarios of radiation contamination and injury, one accidental in nature leading to environmental contamination, and another of deliberate intent resulting in injury and death. This article also discusses the management of injury from radiological dispersion devices or dirty bombs, with emphasis on the immediate aftermath as well as strategy recommendations. PMID:17909684

  7. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China); Li Xiangzhi [Department of Pathology, University of Michigan, 1301 Catherine, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Zhaojie Cui [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  8. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

    PubMed

    Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. PMID:25837786

  9. ID Management Strategies for Interactive Systems in Multi-Camera Scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Benedikt Gollan; Bernhard Wally; Alois Ferscha

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach towards identity management strategies for application in large scale interactive systems while separating pure detection from the identity management processes. Detection is achieved by em- ploying a scalable, modal, network-based, real-time multi-camera tracking system in which numerous cameras are used to cover large areas. Objects are detected by employing blob detection and image pre-processing

  10. Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, D. G.

    2003-02-26

    This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances.

  11. Effectiveness of alternative management scenarios on the sediment load in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The AnnAGNPS model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management Practices (MPs) on soil erosion and sediment load in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2) located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was previously calibrated and validated using f...

  12. Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Çorlu Town of Turkey

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Esra. Tinmaz; Ibrahim . Demir

    2006-01-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Çorlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management.This paper presents a general overview

  13. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the restrictions on study sites by nature conversation on the maps data about nature protected objects and buffer zones or forming restricted areas around those objects. The results will indicate the utilization possibility and most sustainable scenarios for different land use cases. Moreover, the possible changes in soil functioning accordingly to site specific soil conditions will be discussed and presented.

  14. Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 solar radiation management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Ben; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the effectiveness and the regional inequalities of solar radiation management (SRM) in compensating for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze the results from Earth System Models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Each experiment produces 50 model yrs of simulations: 13 models completed experiment G1 (offsetting 4 × CO2 via solar reduction); 12 models completed experiment G2 (offsetting CO2 that increased by 1% per year); 3 models completed experiment G3 (offsetting increasing radiative forcing under RCP4.5 with increasing stratospheric aerosol); and 7 models completed experiment G4 (injection of 5 Tg SO2 a- 1 into the stratosphere). The regional inequalities in temperature and precipitation compensation for experiments G1, G3 and G4 are significantly different from their corresponding noise backgrounds for most models, but for G2 they are not significantly different from noise. Differences in the regional inequalities and the actual effectiveness among the four SRM scenarios are not significant for many models. However, in more than half of the models, the effectiveness for temperature in the solar dimming geoengineering scenarios (G1 and G2) is significantly higher than that in the SO2 geoengineering scenarios (G3 and G4). The effectiveness of the four SRM experiments in compensating for temperature change is considerably higher than for precipitation. The methodology used highlights that a large across-model variation in the treatment of key geoengineering processes (such as stratospheric aerosols) and the quantification of damage caused by climate change creates significant uncertainties in any strategies to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness across different regions.

  15. An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yong Liu; Huaicheng Guo; Zhenxing Zhang; Lijing Wang; Yongli Dai; Yingying Fan

    2007-01-01

    In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water\\u000a resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues\\u000a and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems\\u000a have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that

  16. A web tool for STORET/WQX water quality data retrieval and Best Management Practice scenario suggestion.

    PubMed

    Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A; Kim, Jonggun; Theller, Larry; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Merwade, Venkatesh; Lim, Kyoung Jae

    2015-03-01

    Total Maximum Daily Load is a water quality standard to regulate water quality of streams, rivers and lakes. A wide range of approaches are used currently to develop TMDLs for impaired streams and rivers. Flow and load duration curves (FDC and LDC) have been used in many states to evaluate the relationship between flow and pollutant loading along with other models and approaches. A web-based LDC Tool was developed to facilitate development of FDC and LDC as well as to support other hydrologic analyses. In this study, the FDC and LDC tool was enhanced to allow collection of water quality data via the web and to assist in establishing cost-effective Best Management Practice (BMP) implementations. The enhanced web-based tool provides use of water quality data not only from the US Geological Survey but also from the Water Quality Portal for the U.S. via web access. Moreover, the web-based tool identifies required pollutant reductions to meet standard loads and suggests a BMP scenario based on ability of BMPs to reduce pollutant loads, BMP establishment and maintenance costs. In the study, flow and water quality data were collected via web access to develop LDC and to identify the required reduction. The suggested BMP scenario from the web-based tool was evaluated using the EPA Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load model to attain the required pollutant reduction at least cost. PMID:25460420

  17. Patient empowerment by the means of citizen-managed Electronic Health Records: web 2.0 health digital identity scenarios.

    PubMed

    Falcão-Reis, Filipa; Correia, Manuel E

    2010-01-01

    With the advent of more sophisticated and comprehensive healthcare information systems, system builders are becoming more interested in patient interaction and what he can do to help to improve his own health care. Information systems play nowadays a crucial and fundamental role in hospital work-flows, thus providing great opportunities to introduce and improve upon "patient empowerment" processes for the personalization and management of Electronic Health Records (EHRs). In this paper, we present a patient's privacy generic control mechanisms scenarios based on the Extended OpenID (eOID), a user centric digital identity provider previously developed by our group, which leverages a secured OpenID 2.0 infrastructure with the recently released Portuguese Citizen Card (CC) for secure authentication in a distributed health information environment. eOID also takes advantage of Oauth assertion based mechanisms to implement patient controlled secure qualified role based access to his EHR, by third parties. PMID:20543356

  18. Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Munson, John B.

    1988-01-01

    A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

  19. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  20. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in tur

  1. From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.

    PubMed

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-03-01

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

  2. Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey

    SciTech Connect

    Tinmaz, Esra [Trakya University, Corlu Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, 59860 Corlu/Tekirdag (Turkey)]. E-mail: esratinmaz@gmail.com; Demir, Ibrahim [Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty, Department of Environmental Engineering, Maslak/Istanbul (Turkey)]. E-mail: idemir@itu.edu.tr

    2006-07-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.

  3. An investigation of the existing situation and trends in building energy efficiency management in China

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jing Liang; Baizhan Li; Yong Wu; Runming Yao

    2007-01-01

    According to the Chinese State Council's “Building Energy Efficiency Management Ordinance”, a large-scale investigation of energy efficiency (EE) in buildings in contemporary China has been carried out in 22 provincial capitals and major cities in China. The aim of this project is to provide reliable information for drawing up the “Decision on reinforcing building energy efficiency” by the Ministry of

  4. Does gender bias exist in the medical management of heart failure?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kishore J. Harjai; Eduardo Nunez; J. Stewart Humphrey; Tansel Turgut; Mehul Shah; Jeff Newman

    2000-01-01

    Introduction: The purpose of this study was to ascertain the presence of gender bias in the medical management of heart failure, and to assess its association with the specialty of the caregiver physician. Methods: In 309 patients with documented left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction <45%) and at least one hospitalization for heart failure, we assessed the frequency of use

  5. Integrated mitigation and solar radiation management scenarios under combined climate guardrails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stankoweit, Marius; Schmidt, Hauke; Roshan, Elnaz; Pieper, Patrick; Held, Hermann

    2015-04-01

    In addition to the climate policy options 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' solar radiation management (SRM) has been put on the agenda. As SRM costs are comparably low compared to mitigation costs, including SRM risks in the analysis proves essential. In our contribution we focus on precipitation pattern changes as potential side-effects of SRM and perform an integrated mitigation-SRM-based analysis on the basis of economic welfare optimization, constrained by climate guardrails. We define a tolerable scale of precipitation changes by the anomalies that would have been tolerated under a temperature target. Given that metric and a temperature target, by utilizing the integrated assessment model MIND, we derive the cost reduction, induced by including the additional option of SRM. We show that the cost reduction is a strong function of the fraction of Giorgi regions, for which we require compliance with the newly defined SRM guardrail. Compliance with all Giorgi regions might eliminate most of the economic gain achievable through SRM. The effects of alternative parameterizations of the SRM-precipitation pattern change influence chain are discussed.

  6. Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system.

    PubMed

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Johnson, Craig R; Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Chérubin, Laurent M; Arias-González, J Ernesto; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2011-06-01

    The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems. PMID:21774437

  7. Analytical perspectives on performance-based management: an outline of theoretical assumptions in the existing literature.

    PubMed

    Wadmann, Sarah; Johansen, Sarah; Lind, Ane; Okkels Birk, Hans; Hoeyer, Klaus

    2013-10-01

    Performance-based management (PBM) has become a dominant form of governance in health care and there is a need for careful assessment of its function and effects. This article contains a cross-disciplinary literature synthesis of current studies of PBM. Literature was retrieved by database searches and categorized according to analytical differences and similarities concerning (1) purpose and (2) governance mechanism of PBM. The literature could be grouped into three approaches to the study of PBM, which we termed: the ‘functionalist’, the ‘interpretive’ and the ‘post-modern’ perspective. In the functionalist perspective, PBM is perceived as a management tool aimed at improving health care services by means of market-based mechanisms. In the interpretive perspective, the adoption of PBM is understood as consequence of institutional and individual agents striving for public legitimacy. In the post-modern perspective, PBM is analysed as a form of governance, which has become so ingrained in Western culture that health care professionals internalize and understand their own behaviour and goals according to the values expressed in these governance systems. The recognition of differences in analytical perspectives allows appreciation of otherwise implicit assumptions and potential implications of PBM. Reflections on such differences are important to ensure vigilant appropriation of shifting management tools in health quality governance. PMID:23506797

  8. Design and evaluation of simulation scenarios for a program introducing patient safety, teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to healthcare leaders and managers.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Jeffrey B; Singer, Sara J; Hayes, Jennifer; Sales, Michael; Vogt, Jay W; Raemer, Daniel; Meyer, Gregg S

    2011-08-01

    We developed a training program to introduce managers and informal leaders of healthcare organizations to key concepts of teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to motivate them to act as leaders to improve safety within their sphere of influence. This report describes the simulation scenario and debriefing that are core elements of that program. Twelve teams of clinician and nonclinician managers were selected from a larger set of volunteers to participate in a 1-day, multielement training program. Two simulation exercises were developed: one for teams of nonclinicians and the other for clinicians or mixed groups. The scenarios represented two different clinical situations, each designed to engage participants in discussions of their safety leadership and teamwork issues immediately after the experience. In the scenarios for nonclinicians, participants conducted an anesthetic induction and then managed an ethical situation. The scenario for clinicians simulated a consulting visit to an emergency room that evolved into a problem-solving challenge. Participants in this scenario had a limited time to prepare advice for hospital leadership on how to improve observed safety and cultural deficiencies. Debriefings after both types of scenarios were conducted using principles of "debriefing with good judgment." We assessed the relevance and impact of the program by analyzing participant reactions to the simulation through transcript data and facilitator observations as well as a postcourse questionnaire. The teams generally reported positive perceptions of the relevance and quality of the simulation with varying types and degrees of impact on their leadership and teamwork behaviors. These kinds of clinical simulation exercises can be used to teach healthcare leaders and managers safety leadership and teamwork skills and behaviors. PMID:21642906

  9. Examining the world of subcultural existence: a descriptive analysis of African American management experiences and values 

    E-print Network

    Stephens, Chandra D.

    2007-04-25

    i l a r l y f r a m e d a r o u n d s o m e v a l u e s e x a m i n e d i n P e p p a s ? r e s e a r c h , t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s study was to explore the African American subcultural experiences in practice... through q u a l i t a t i v e i n q u i r y , p r e s e n t i n g t h e i n f o r m a n t s ? e m i c v i e w s t o u n d e r s t a n d u n i q u e n e s s o r commonalities of their management values (attitudes, beliefs...

  10. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  11. Example Scenarios

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Christopher Griffith

    This section explores several hypothetical scenarios of nuclear-weapon detonations on U.S. cities. These scenarios are meant to illustrate the possibilities of such events. Scenarios include a "what-if" scenario of a 150-kiloton nuclear explosion by terrorists on New York City, and the effects of a nuclear accident or "broken arrow" on board a nuclear submarine in San Francisco Bay.

  12. Hydrogeologic data for existing excavations and the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The Special Projects Section of Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., Inc. is responsible for characterizing the subsurface geology and hydrology of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Waste Management Division. Geologic description, in situ testing, and laboratory analyses of alluvium exposed in existing excavations are important subparts to the Area 5 Site Characterization Program designed to determine the suitability of the RWMS for disposal of low level waste mixed waste and transuranic waste. The primary purpose of the Existing Excavation Project is two-fold: first, to characterize important hydrologic properties of the near surface alluvium, thought to play an important role in the infiltration and redistribution of water and solutes through the upper unsaturated zone at the Area 5 RWMS; and second, to provide guidance for the design of future sampling and testing programs. The justification for this work comes from the state of Nevada review of the original DOE/NV Part B Permit application submitted in 1988 for disposal of mixed wastes at the RWMS. The state of Nevada determined that the permit was deficient in characterization data concerning the hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone. DOE/NV agreed with the state and proposed the study of alluvium exposed in existing excavations as one step toward satisfying these important site characterization data requirements. Other components of the site characterization process include the Science Trench Borehole and Pilot Well Projects.

  13. New formulations of existing antidepressants: advantages in the management of depression.

    PubMed

    Norman, Trevor R; Olver, James S

    2004-01-01

    For nearly 50 years, antidepressant drugs have been the first-line treatment for various forms of depression. Despite their widespread use, these medications have significant shortcomings, in particular problems of patient compliance due to adverse effects. The introduction of new formulations of existing antidepressant medications may provide patients with benefits in terms of convenience of use. As a consequence, improvements in compliance may lead to better antidepressant efficiency.An orally disintegrating formulation of mirtazapine (mirtazapine SolTab), a once-weekly formulation of fluoxetine, an enantiomer-specific formulation of citalopram (escitalopram), an extended-release formulation of venlafaxine (venlafaxine XR), a controlled-release formulation of paroxetine (paroxetine CR) and intravenous formulations of some of the newer antidepressants have all been evaluated in limited clinical trials. In this article, a review of the pharmacokinetics and clinical evaluations of these formulations is presented. While there do not appear to be major clinical advantages for the new formulations in terms of antidepressant efficacy, none of them is less efficacious than their older counterpart. Indeed, some of the new formulations are more acceptable to patients (fluoxetine once-weekly, paroxetine CR), others have pharmacokinetic advantages (venlafaxine XR, paroxetine CR), while others may have a faster onset of effect (mirtazapine SolTab, intravenous formulations). Further evaluation of some formulations is still required (mirtazapine SolTab, fluoxetine once-weekly), while others (venlafaxine XR, escitalopram) are finding widespread acceptance in clinical practice. PMID:15182220

  14. Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

    2010-12-01

    Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

  15. A comparative analysis of user preference-based and existing knowledge management systems attributes in the aerospace industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varghese, Nishad G.

    Knowledge management (KM) exists in various forms throughout organizations. Process documentation, training courses, and experience sharing are examples of KM activities performed daily. The goal of KM systems (KMS) is to provide a tool set which serves to standardize the creation, sharing, and acquisition of business critical information. Existing literature provides numerous examples of targeted evaluations of KMS, focusing on specific system attributes. This research serves to bridge the targeted evaluations with an industry-specific, holistic approach. The user preferences of aerospace employees in engineering and engineering-related fields were compared to profiles of existing aerospace KMS based on three attribute categories: technical features, system administration, and user experience. The results indicated there is a statistically significant difference between aerospace user preferences and existing profiles in the user experience attribute category, but no statistically significant difference in the technical features and system administration attribute categories. Additional analysis indicated in-house developed systems exhibit higher technical features and user experience ratings than commercial-off-the-self (COTS) systems.

  16. Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research. Consequently, further detailed research has begun specifically into the impacts from secondary effects in an effort to further increase resilience to future events.

  17. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  18. Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - KIT, Hermann-von-Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

  19. Explorative study of the expected consequences for existing quality management systems due to the revision of ISO 9001 in certified companies in Germany

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ingo Janas; Holger Luczak

    2002-01-01

    The revised ISO 9001 requires companies fundamentally to restructure their existing quality management system and to adapt it to the processes taking place in the individual company. In this context, it is of utmost importance not only to identify current weak points but also to retain the positive effects of the present quality management system. Based on the results of

  20. The implications of using large ensembles of climate scenarios for the management of river ecology in an English chalk stream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, C. F.; Lopez, A.; New, M.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is likely to impact on freshwater ecology, the delivery of regulatory commitments to ecological status and the management of water resources. It is becoming increasingly important for European environment agencies to use and develop methods to aid planning and abstraction licensing procedures and policies in the face of climate change and with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive. Studies have been carried out in the past to investigate the implications of climate change for biodiversity. However, predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, an area which has not been dealt with in great depth in the past. This study has been undertaken to draw on the results of new methodologies to address the uncertainties inherent in modelling future climate and assess their usability for decision-making in water resources allocations specifically in considering interactions between flow and invertebrate communities The River Itchen was chosen as the case study catchment on the strength of having a long-term coupled ecological and flow dataset and having been an area of intensive study in the past. It is a chalk stream located in the south of England and a candidate Special Area of Conservation. It has also been designated a Special Site of Scientific Interest achieved due to the number of rare species, and the richness of the macro-invertebrate community in the river catchment. An ensemble of 246 transient simulations for future climate was obtained from ClimatePrediction.net which were then used to drive a rainfall-runoff model. In order to link the modelled river flow to ecology, the Lotic Invertebrate Flow Evaluation score has been used where the invertebrate community is linked to flow largely through sensitivity to water velocity and siltation, driven by flow variability at sites with fixed channel dimensions The large ensemble of climate scenarios and thereby flow and ecological indices allows the exploration of the risk of the river of not meeting environmental flow targets in the future. Three sets of environmental flow targets which were drawn up by the Environment Agency for England and Wales for the River Itchen were tested and show that it may be difficult to maintain a natural chalk stream invertebrate community in the River Itchen in the future. The ensemble also shows low flows regularly extending from August to December which could result in the loss of a high proportion of individuals recruited that year. This would in turn lead to diminished over-wintering populations, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the following years breeding and recruitment programme. Due to a paucity of quantitative data for the response of macroinvertebrates to multi-year droughts, to provide a richer story, a matrix has been proposed for analysing the effects on biodiversity of the river which combines both the thresholds derived previously and expert opinion on how the ecology of the River Itchen will react to climate change. The matrices also provide a more accessible way of communicating rather complex information to a wider community of decision-makers. Should large changes in flow arise in the future it is likely that some form of action will be taken to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of climate change. Maintaining the ecological status of the river throug river support, i.e. augmenting river flow by pumping from the groundwater aquifer, has also been investigated. However, by augmenting the flow, the high flows are also reduced which can be important for scouring the river bed and removing silt to the benefit of the invertebrate community. Therefore at some point further augmentation may need to be curtailed in order to maintain high flows.

  1. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

  2. Decision support in urban water management based on generic scenarios: The example of NoMix technology

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tove A. Larsen; Max Maurer; Rik I. L. Eggen; Wouter Pronk; Judit Lienert

    2010-01-01

    Urine source separation (NoMix technology) followed by processing the concentrated nutrient solution has the potential to become a cost-efficient alternative to conventional end-of-pipe nutrient elimination. A choice of processing technologies can only be made for specific scenarios, and there is currently no methodology for analyzing generic situations. In setting up a formalized decision-support methodology (based on STEEPLED analysis), we discuss

  3. Methods for interfacing IPCC climate change scenarios with higher resolution watershed management models in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easton, Z. M.; MacAlister, C.; Fuka, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    As much as 90% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region, and could be severely impacted by projected climate change. This analysis coupled hydrodynamic/watershed models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 climate change scenarios to assess the potential impact on water resources and sediment dynamics. Specific AR4 scenarios include the A1B, B1, B2 and COMMIT, which were used to force the baseline hydrodynamic models calibrated against 1979-2011 streamflow for 20 sub-watersheds in the Tana and Beles basins. Transfer functions were developed to distribute the model parameters from the calibrated sub-watersheds to un-gauged portions of the basins based on a similarity index of hydrologic response units. We analyzed the scenario in two manners: first we ran all of the seven individual Global Circulation Model results in the IPCC AR4 report though our watershed models to asses the potential spread of climate change predictions; then we assessed the mean value produced for each IPCC AR4 scenario to better estimate convergence. Results indicate that the Tana basin is expected to experience an increase in mean annual flow. The Beles basin is predicted to experience a small decrease in mean annual flow. Sediment concentrations in the Tana basin increase proportionally more than the flow increase. Interestingly, and perhaps counter to what might be expected for a decrease in flow in the Beles basin, sediment concentrations increase.

  4. Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

    2013-04-01

    In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

  5. Extreme Climatic Events Modelling and Economic Impacts Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: a Risk Management Application to the Rural Sector in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, E.; Ghil, M.

    2013-05-01

    An increasing body of literature has shown the increase of frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation events across the world. Several economic systems and networks present high levels of vulnerability to weather variability and extreme weather events. This research proposes a methodological framework to characterize the cascading climate-to-economy risk profiles of economic systems to weather variability in different global warming scenarios. A weather-index and machine learning-based approach is introduced to encode and characterize the studied systems vulnerability to weather variability. The latter is enclosed in a "weather-within-climate" stochastic downscaling approach in order to characterize the interaction of low and high frequency climate variability and project risk profiles into future climate scenarios. The probabilistic weather-driven physical loss risk profiles are finally used to model supply shock-driven economic direct and indirect economic losses in the studied region or country. Given the acute vulnerability of the rural population to weather variability and global warming, this probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology is applied to the study the risk profile of weather-driven loss in the rural sector in a developing country, China. Province-level weather-to-economy risk profiles results of weather-driven staple crops loss under different technological and climate scenarios are presented. Implications for the design of risk management policy mixes are finally discussed.

  6. Risk Management training: the development of simulator-based scenarios from the analysis of recent maritime accidents

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael L BARNETT

    This paper opens with a brief introduction to the development of crew resource and risk management training in the international shipping industry. A review of three case studies is used to highlight some of the current risk management issues raised by recent maritime casualties. The paper provides an overview of how these issues have led to research-led developments in simulator-based

  7. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

  8. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  9. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  10. Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils of northern China under variable fertilizer management and climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Guiying; Xu, Minggang; He, Xinhua; Zhang, Wenju; Huang, Shaomin; Yang, Xueyun; Liu, Hua; Peng, Chang; Shirato, Yasuhito; Iizumi, Toshichika; Wang, Jinzhou; Murphy, Daniel V.

    2014-03-01

    We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term field trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general circulation models were validated using these field trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year-1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be -4.3 to 18.2 t C ha-1 by 2100. The effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ significantly between climate scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2) was approximately 0.136 t C ha-1 yr-1 in northern China. These findings highlight the need to maintain, and where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming inorganic fertilizer intensive.

  11. Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees.

    PubMed

    López-Moreno, J I; Zabalza, J; Vicente-Serrano, S M; Revuelto, J; Gilaberte, M; Azorin-Molina, C; Morán-Tejeda, E; García-Ruiz, J M; Tague, C

    2014-09-15

    Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced. PMID:24090497

  12. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

  13. A computerized support system to cooperative training in emergency scenarios management and its application to an oil port domain

    SciTech Connect

    Balducelli, C.; Bologna, S.; Di Costanzo, G.; Vicoli, G. [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Boero, M. [AUTOMA, Genova (Italy)

    1995-12-31

    The paper describes part of the results achieved in the framework of the MUSTER project (Multi-Users System for Training and Evaluating Environmental Emergency Response). The aim of this project is to define the detailed specifications of a computer based system supporting collaborative training for emergency management. A system prototype has been implemented to support the refinement and improvement of the system specifications.

  14. Economic and ecological implications of alternative brush management and restoration scenarios designed to improve water yield in two Texas watersheds 

    E-print Network

    Olenick, Keith Layne

    2002-01-01

    . Costs of additional water are lower for sub-basins within the Edwards study area (ranging from $32 to $70 per acre-foot of water added) than in the Twin Buttes (ranging from $63 to $218 per acre-foot), meaning that brush management efforts are more...

  15. Trophic structure of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in 2000-2006: Insights on the effects of management scenarios for the hake fishery using the IBM trophic model Osmose

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzloff, Martin; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Tam, Jorge; Travers, Morgane; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2009-01-01

    The individual-based trophic model Osmose is applied to the upwelling marine ecosystem off the coast of Peru. The dynamics and life cycle of eight major species of the Peruvian marine ecosystem are explicitly considered in the model. Reference simulations provide an overview of the trophic structure of the Peruvian ecosystem during the period 2000-2006. Results of model calibration and simulations are discussed in the light of current empirical knowledge on the trophic functioning of the Peruvian ecosystem and are compared to outputs obtained recently using the trophic model Ecopath. The impacts on the ecosystem of restoration plans for the depleted hake ( Merluccius gayi peruanus) population are explored through two management scenarios: a) a long term reduction of fishing effort targeting hake and b) a moratorium on the hake fishery. The simulations help better understand the recent failure of a 20 month hake moratorium and provide long-term strategic support to ecosystem-based management. Limits of our approach are discussed and recommendations are detailed for future developments of the Osmose model and ecosystem approach to fishery management in the Peruvian context.

  16. Artificial neural networks applied to flow prediction scenarios in Tomebamba River - Paute watershed, for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisneros, Felipe; Veintimilla, Jaime

    2013-04-01

    The main aim of this research is to create a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that allows predicting the flow in Tomebamba River both, at real time and in a certain day of year. As inputs we are using information of rainfall and flow of the stations along of the river. This information is organized in scenarios and each scenario is prepared to a specific area. The information is acquired from the hydrological stations placed in the watershed using an electronic system developed at real time and it supports any kind or brands of this type of sensors. The prediction works very good three days in advance This research includes two ANN models: Back propagation and a hybrid model between back propagation and OWO-HWO. These last two models have been tested in a preliminary research. To validate the results we are using some error indicators such as: MSE, RMSE, EF, CD and BIAS. The results of this research reached high levels of reliability and the level of error are minimal. These predictions are useful for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

  17. 77 FR 22337 - Privacy Act of 1974; Amendment to an Existing System of Records, Inventory Management System Also...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-13

    ...management agents: Last name, first name, middle initial, date of birth, age on effective date of action, sex, relationship to head of household, citizenship status, disability status, race, ethnicity, social security number,...

  18. Family physicians' management of genetic aspects of a cardiac disease: a scenario-based study from slovenia.

    PubMed

    Klemenc-Ketiš, Z; Peterlin, B

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this study was to find out how Slovenian family physicians (FPs) would manage a hypothetical clinical case, to explore their views about possible ethical dilemmas associated with this clinical case and to determine possible associations with demographic and other characteristics of FPs. This was an observational cross-sectional postal study in the Slovenian FPs' surgeries. The study population consisted of the whole population of Slovenian FPs (n = 950). The main outcome measures were the percentages of the answers of FPs on different questions about the clinical case on the management of patient and his relative with hereditary cardiomyopathy. There were 271 FPs who answered the questionnaire (response rate was 27.1%). A sample included 66 (24.4%) men and the mean age of all respondents was 45.5 ± 10.6 years. When dealing with the clinical case, most FPs expressed willingness to take the patient's family history. Only 34.2% FPs did not believe that ordering genetic tests was part of their job. Additionally, only 50.0% of them felt competent to interpret the genetic risk, 25.0% of them would give information about genetic testing and only 6.0% would interpret the results of the genetic testing. Family physicians in Slovenia were willing to include genetic tasks into routine management of their patients, but they do not feel competent enough to interpret the genetic risks and the results of genetic testing. However, an important part of FPs would not refer patients at risk to genetic counseling. The inclusion of genetic topics to family medicine specialization curriculum is needed. PMID:25741210

  19. Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei

    2013-11-30

    The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790

  20. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Freeman, W. [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Chemistry

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

  1. An evaluation of the impact of forest biomass harvest for biofuels on carbon storage in the US west coast states under different management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. M.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    Mitigation strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide have lead to investigation of alternative sources of fuels. National and state forest policies have been implemented to both reduce risk of wildfire and promote use of forest biomass as a secondary biofuels energy source. However, the cost and biomass availability have been estimated without quantifying the impact on current and future terrestrial carbon balances. This study uses a combination of Federal Inventory Analysis data (FIA) and supplementary plot data for Washington, Oregon and California to quantify the current forest carbon stocks, net ecosystem production (NEP), and net biome production (NBP = NEP - removals) for the period from 2001-2006. Varying management treatments were applied to determine the net cost, carbon debt, and biofuels energy potential. The treatments were designed to meet multiple objectives emphasizing carbon storage, economic gain, or energy production. The hazardous fuels reduction treatment minimizes carbon loss by only harvesting biomass in forested areas classified by moderate to high risk fire condition classes (FRCC class). This scenario assumes no additional harvest in ecoregions characterized by long fire return intervals (>100 years) such as the Coast Range and the West Cascades and limits removals to an 18 in diameter at breast height (DBH). The energy production treatment maximizes biomass removal by harvesting areas regardless of FRCC class and allows removals up to a 24 inch DBH. Statewide estimates of carbon for 2001-2006 prior to harvest scenarios for California, Oregon, and Washington respectively are as follows: 1) Total land-based carbon stocks (excluding soils) averages 1680, 1663, and 1278 Tg C; 2) NEP is positive in most ecoregions averaging 213, 180, and 191 g C m-2 yr-1; 3) Actual harvest removals averaged 2.7, 6.5, and 5.1 Tg C yr-1 for the same period. In Oregon, the amount of biomass available for biofuels varies from 128 g C m-2 in the hazardous fuels reduction treatment versus 185 g C m-2 in the energy production treatment. Removal of this biomass over the next 20 years is estimated to result in an additional 4 Tg C yr-1 (a 60% increase) in harvest removals for the hazardous fuels reduction treatment and an additional 14 Tg C yr-1 (216% increase) for the energy production treatment. Even in a minimal removals scenario and assuming no other disturbance losses (i.e. insects and fire), Oregon forest NBP will be significantly reduced with the potential to become a carbon source.

  2. Tracing the Scenarios in Scenario-Based Product Design: a study to support scenario generation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Irene Anggreeni; Mascha van der Voort

    2007-01-01

    Scenario-based design originates from the human-computer interaction and\\u000asoftware engineering disciplines, and continues to be adapted for product development.\\u000aProduct development differs from software development in the former’s more varied\\u000acontext of use, broader characteristics of users and more tangible solutions. The possible\\u000ause of scenarios in product design is therefore broader and more challenging. Existing\\u000adesign methods that involve

  3. A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

    2014-05-01

    Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

  4. Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2013-12-01

    This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

  5. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  6. The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.

  7. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  8. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  9. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-print Network

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 1 June 1998 Systems Analysis research programme (tenta- tively titled: Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development). The tentative objective of the research programme is 1) to contribute to the assessment of technological and scientific

  10. COMMISSION SCENARIO ANALYSES OF

    E-print Network

    efficiency, renewable generation, solar photo voltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis high penetrations of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy generation (both rooftop solar: · Two additional energy efficiency scenarios. · Carbon adder impact on coal plant dispatch. · Resource

  11. Optimal Generator Scheduling using Probabilistic Demand Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Yoshiki; Kobayashi, Takenori; Omata, Kazuya; Takahashi, Hirofumi; Kusano, Hideo

    We have developed a new method to determine an optimal generator scheduling using probabilistic demand scenarios. The demand scenarios are created statistically as a set of load curves by the past demand data. Covariance matrix is used to reconstruct the distribution of the demand scenarios. Unit commitment calculation is executed for each demand scenario and the operation cost is estimated. Optimal generator scheduling is selected by the expected value of the unit price with including the additional cost to compensate the demand variation. The risk of the scenarios is also estimated to select the optimal generation scenario. The advantage of this method is that the optimum generator scheduling can be calculated in the present load dispatching system since the existing scheduling algorism can be easily adopted with a minimum modification.

  12. Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

    PubMed Central

    Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C.; Hull, Angela D.; Sanderson, William G.

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”. PMID:23894298

  13. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.

    PubMed

    Gormley, Kate S G; Porter, Joanne S; Bell, Michael C; Hull, Angela D; Sanderson, William G

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool". PMID:23894298

  14. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  15. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  16. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  17. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  18. Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

    2000-01-01

    Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

  19. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-print Network

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  20. Moon manned mission scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. de Angelis; R. K. Tripathi; J. W. Wilson; M. S. Clowdsley; J. E. Nealy; F. F. Badavi

    2004-01-01

    An analysis is performed on the radiation environment found around and on the surface of the Moon, and applied to different possible lunar mission scenarios. An optimization technique has been used to obtain mission scenarios minimizing the astronaut radiation exposure and at the same time controlling the effect of shielding, in terms of mass addition and material choice, as a

  1. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  2. Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cherry, Gregory S.

    2006-01-01

    Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

  3. rSmart Sakai CLE User Guide, Version 2.7 Administration and Site Management Tools 733 Revising an Existing Group

    E-print Network

    Tufts University

    rSmart Sakai CLE User Guide, Version 2.7 Administration and Site Management Tools 733 Revising;734 Administration and Site Management Tools rSmart Sakai CLE User Guide, Version 2.7 3. To make your site available, click Update. The CLE displays the Site Editor home page again. Or, to return to the Site Editor home

  4. Correlations in -local scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Sarkar, Debasis

    2015-06-01

    Recently Bell-type inequalities were introduced in Branciard et al. (Phys Rev A 85:032119, 2012) to analyze the correlations emerging in an entanglement swapping scenario characterized by independence of the two sources shared between three parties. The corresponding scenario was referred to as bilocal scenario. Here, we derive Bell-type inequalities in party scenario, i.e., in -local scenario. Considering the two different cases with several number of inputs and outputs, we derive local and -local bounds. The -local inequality studied for two cases are proved to be tight. Replacing the sources by maximally entangled states for two binary inputs and two binary outputs and also for the fixed input and four outputs, we observe quantum violations of -local bounds. But the resistance offered to noise cannot be increased as compared to the bilocal scenario. Thus increasing the number of parties in a linear fashion in source-independent scenario does not contribute in lowering down the requirements of revealing quantumness in a network in contrast to the star configuration (Tavakoli et al. in Phys Rev A 90:062109, 2014) of parties.

  5. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  6. 'Phantom networks' of managed behavioral health providers: an empirical study of their existence and effect on patients in two New Jersey counties.

    PubMed

    Holstein, Russell; Paul, David P

    2012-01-01

    Managed care organizations often tout the availability of clinicians in their provider networks, yet their clients seeking mental healthcare may find it difficult to obtain such care in a timely and effective manner. Using comprehensive data from two counties in New Jersey, the authors examine the prevalence of phantom networks of managed care providers of behavioral health services and the effects of such networks on patients' wait times and the availability of therapists treating children. PMID:22989224

  7. Sensitivity and Scenario Results

    E-print Network

    Yu, Winston

    Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

  8. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  9. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes but also evapotranspiration process. However changes in total precipitation are highly uncertain. The six tested rainfall-runoff models project reduced flows, especially in the spring and summer seasons. Depending on the socio-economic scenarios and the area, the downstream total water needs could decrease or remain stable. Considering the present day constraints, these changes would lead to a decrease in energy production (mainly due to reduced annual inflows) and to less flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand. Results of the R²D² 2050 project suggest also that the downscaling methods still fail to reproduce some crucial aspects of the climate at regional scale. Unexpected biases are propagated along the chain of models. The key issue to simulate accurately reservoir operations under present and future climate conditions is the filling curves that depict the balance between water supply and demand. Probabilistic filling curves were calibrated here to meet the constraint on water level in summer objective nine years over ten. A large proportion of regional climates generated over the baseline period lead to unrealistic curves, pointing out higher levels of requirement in models output to assess global change impacts on water management systems like on the Durance River basin.

  10. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  11. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  12. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person. PMID:19502145

  13. IPCC SCENARIO DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...

  14. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  15. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

  16. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  17. Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake

    E-print Network

    Wilcock, William

    Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division June 2005 #12;iv Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake

  18. Charlie's Gumballs Scenario Video

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Suzanne Alejandre

    2012-04-06

    This page from the Math Forum blog of Suzanne Alejandre links to a one-minute video during which Max Ray acts out the "Charlie's Gumball" Problem of the Week. The page includes links to PDFs of the scenario, the PoW Packet with the solution and teaching suggestions, a scoring rubric and the "Notice/Wonder" strategy handout that can be used to introduce the problem.

  19. Describing viable technicolor scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hirn, Johannes; Martin, Adam; Sanz, Veronica [Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520 (United States); Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215 and Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 (Canada)

    2008-10-01

    We construct an effective Lagrangian for new strong interactions at the LHC, including as a first step the two lightest triplets of spin-1 resonances. Our parametrization is general enough to allow for previously unstudied spectrum and couplings. Among available frameworks to describe the spin-1 sector, we rely on an extra-dimensional description. Our approach limits the number of parameters yet is versatile enough to describe the phenomenology of a wide range of new scenarios of strong electroweak symmetry breaking.

  20. Low Grade Micropapillary Urothelial Carcinoma, Does It Exist? - Analysis of Management and Outcomes from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database

    PubMed Central

    Vourganti, Srinivas; Harbin, Andrew; Singer, Eric A.; Shuch, Brian; Metwalli, Adam R.; Agarwal, Piyush K.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To elucidate the oncologic behavior of Micropapillary Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma (MPBC), a rare aggressive variant histology. Methods: All MPBC patients in SEER 17 database were compared with those with traditional urothelial carcinoma (UC). Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine OS and CSS. A Cox proportional hazards model (CPH) was constructed to test the effect of covariates on outcomes. Results: From 2001-2008, 120 MPBC patients were identified, 0.1% of all bladder cancer. MPBC presented with more high grade (86.1% vs. 38.7%, p<0.0001) and more high stage disease (40.8% NMI vs. 90.4% NMI, p < 0.0001) than UC. Low grade (LG) NMI MPBC had worse OS and CSS compared to LG UC (p=0.0037, p<0.0001 respectively), and did no better than high grade (HG) NMI MPBC. No difference was detected between HG NMI MPBC and HG NMI UC pts. A CPH model controlling for stage, grade, treatment, age, race, and sex detected no significant survival difference in MPBC vs. UC (HR 1.04, p=0.7966). For NMI MPBC (n=49), only 4 patients underwent definitive therapy, of whom none died of disease. However, in those not receiving definitive therapy (n=45), 7 cancer specific deaths occurred (15.6%). Conclusion: Controlling for stage and grade, no survival difference could be detected between MPBC and UC. Low grade NMI MPBC behaved similarly to both high grade MPBC and high grade UC. We propose that all MPBC (regardless of grade) be managed as high grade disease, and that strong consideration for definitive therapy should be given in all cases. PMID:23678370

  1. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  2. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).

  3. Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia's largest river.

    PubMed

    Lester, Rebecca E; Fairweather, Peter G; Webster, Ian T; Quin, Rebecca A

    2013-07-01

    Management of natural resources, particularly water, increasingly requires that likely benefits of particular actions (e.g., allocating an environmental flow) are quantified in advance. Therefore, new techniques are required that enable those potential benefits to be objectively compared among competing options for management (e.g., compared to a "do nothing" scenario). Scenario modeling is one method for developing such an objective comparison. We used existing hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem response models for a case study location, the Coorong, an inverse estuary in South Australia, to illustrate the potential for such scenario modeling to inform natural resource management. We modeled a set of 12 scenarios that included different levels of water extraction, potential future climate change, and sea-level change, thereby enabling a comparison of the different drivers of possible future reductions in water availability in the Coorong. We discovered that potential future climate change combined with current extraction levels has the capacity to devastate the ecology of the Coorong, but also that much of the degradation could be averted by reducing upstream extractions of water. The inclusion of possible sea-level change had a surprising effect, whereby higher sea levels increased hydrodynamic connectivity between the Coorong's two lagoons. Increased hydrodynamic connectivity limited the occurrence of extremely low water levels and high salinities due to evapoconcentration that were simulated for dry future climates in the absence of sea-level rise. These findings strongly suggest that future ecological degradation in the Coorong is not a foregone conclusion, and that management decisions regarding water allocations upstream will determine the ecological future of this coastal lagoon. PMID:23967570

  4. Exploring Existence Value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madariaga, Bruce; McConnell, Kenneth E.

    1987-05-01

    The notion that individuals value the preservation of water resources independent of their own use of these resources is discussed. Issues in defining this value, termed "existence value," are explored. Economic models are employed to assess the role of existence value in benefit-cost analysis. The motives underlying existence value are shown to matter to contingent valuation measurement of existence benefits. A stylized contingent valuation experiment is used to study nonusers' attitudes regarding projects to improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Survey results indicate that altruism is one of the motives underlying existence value and that goods other than environmental and natural resources may provide existence benefits.

  5. Managing Innovation: A Multidisciplinary Scenario Development Approach

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Henshaw1 1 Systems Engineering Innovation Centre, Holywell Park, Loughborough University, Loughborough of Defence (MoD) is focusing on and shifting toward a Network Enabled Capability (NEC) approach for improved military effect. This is being realised through the physical networking and coherent integration

  6. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  7. Do axions exist

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. W. Donnelly; S. J. Freedman; R. S. Lytel; R. D. Peccei; M. Schwartz

    1978-01-01

    We critically examine various existing experiments which could provide evidence for the axion. Although our conclusions regarding the existence of this particle are somewhat pessimistic, we discuss other possible experiments which could throw additional light on this question.

  8. Robotic tele-existence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro

    1989-01-01

    Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.

  9. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  10. A $?$CDM bounce scenario

    E-print Network

    Yi-Fu Cai; Edward Wilson-Ewing

    2015-01-28

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  11. A Collaboration Framework for Cross-enterprise Business Process Management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    O. Adam; A. Hofer; S. Zang; C. Hammer; M. Jerrentrup; S. Leinenbach

    New forms of cooperation like collaborative business scenarios re- quire a deep but flexible integration of enterprises. In order to manage interor- ganizational business processes, existing concepts for business process man- agement need to be adapted and extended. In this paper a framework is pre- sented, that shows how cross-enterprise processes can be planned, implemented and controlled. The framework is

  12. Commissioning Existing Buildings: A Program Perspective 

    E-print Network

    Jump, D.; Rosillo, A.; Tahir, A.

    2003-01-01

    Since September 2002, the Oakland Energy Partnership's Large Commercial Building Tune-Up Program has recruited managers and operators of existing large commercial buildings in the City of Oakland for program participation. The Tune-Up Program...

  13. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic). Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS) doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by the imagination of the trainers. Significant effort is made to put the participants into "the Zone" - the psychological mindset, where they believe they are in a realistic setting and treating a real patient, so that they gain the most from each teaching session. The method can be used for learning new skills, communication and leadership as well as maintaining existing skills. Conclusion The method described is a low technology, low cost alternative to high technology simulation which may provide a useful adjunct to delivering effective training when properly prepared and delivered. We find this useful for both induction and regular training of pre-hospital trauma care providers. PMID:20230636

  14. Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

  15. Energy Management Strategies for Existing Buildings 

    E-print Network

    Gilmer, L.

    2009-01-01

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 11 Microbial biomass determined using the CFI method. . . . . . 12 Microbial biomass determined by the CFE method for soils from each state . . 44 13 Microbial biomass determined by the CFI method without subtraction of a control . . . . . 47... and subsurface horizons from di fferent states. . . . 43 The percentage of SOC constituted by biomass (measured by CFE) in organic, mineral surface and subsurface horizons over thc whole data set and from different states. . . 46 The percentage of SOC...

  16. Supporting Scenario Evolution* Karin Koogan Breitman Julio Cesar Sampaio do Prado Leite Daniel M. Berry

    E-print Network

    Berry, Daniel M.

    development lifecycle requires integration of scenarios to other representations used during CBS development development lifecycle creates the necessity to maintain scenarios through the inevitable changes support for full-lifecycle scenario management and have applied it to some non-trivial systems. 1

  17. Management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael Cotta-Schönberg

    2000-01-01

    The area of management is a naturally fertile ground for theory making, development of models and ... fads! Moreover, gurus, consultant firms, and publishers alike have vested interests in keeping the management mill going. Finally, our political lords and masters regularly come up with new trendy demands on public managers. So, it is no wonder that library managers may sometimes

  18. Newsletter No.6 NovemberTechnologyScenarios The Technology Scenarios

    E-print Network

    in science and technology based organisations · Use of scientific advises in decision processes) and Aalborg University we are planning a Doctoral School on Technology Analysis and Environmental StrategiesNewsletter No.6 NovemberTechnologyScenarios The Technology Scenarios research programme

  19. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

  20. Probing Unification Scenarios with Atomic Clocks

    E-print Network

    M. D. Julião; M. C. Ferreira; C. J. A. P. Martins; A. M. R. V. L. Monteiro

    2013-09-30

    We make use of the comparison between measurements of various pairs of atomic clocks to impose constraints on coupled variations of fundamental constants in severs unification scenarios. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ${\\dot\\mu}/{\\mu}=(0.68\\pm5.79)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ and for the gyromagnetic factor ${\\dot g_p}/{g_p}=(-0.72\\pm0.89)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ (both of these being at the 95% confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios (which we briefly describe), but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

  1. Probing unification scenarios with atomic clocks

    E-print Network

    M. C. Ferreira; M. D. Julião; C. J. A. P. Martins; A. M. R. V. L. Monteiro

    2012-12-17

    We discuss the usage of measurements of the stability of nature's fundamental constants coming from comparisons between atomic clocks as a means to constrain coupled variations of these constants in a broad class of unification scenarios. After introducing the phenomenology of these models we provide updated constraints, based on a global analysis of the latest experimental results. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ${\\dot\\mu}/{\\mu}=(0.68\\pm5.79)\\ti mes10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ and for the gyromagnetic factor ${\\dot g_p}/{g_p} =(-0.72\\pm0.89)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ (both of these being at the 95 % confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios, but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

  2. Existing power system

    SciTech Connect

    NONE

    1995-10-01

    This portion of the energy Vision 2020 draft report is a discussion of the existing power system of the Tennessee Valley Authority. A summary listing of hydro, fossil, nuclear generating facilities is included, with net capacity and age being given for each unit. Data on emissions from coal-fired plants is also given. A discussion of TVA`s transmission system, including interchanges with existing utilities, is also given.

  3. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  4. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  5. Emergent universe scenario and the low CMB multipoles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Labraña, Pedro

    2015-04-01

    In this work we study superinflation in the context of the emergent universe (EU) scenario. The existence of a superinflating phase before the onset of slow-roll inflation arises in any emergent universe model. We found that the superinflationary period in the EU scenario produces a suppression of the CMB anisotropies at large scale which could be responsible for the observed lack of power at large angular scales of the CMB.

  6. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. Wein

    2010-01-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a

  7. Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios

    E-print Network

    Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies #12;Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies By André of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuels

  8. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  9. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael D.; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  10. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

  11. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  12. Do Multiquark Hadrons Exist?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John Weinstein; Nathan Isgur

    1982-01-01

    The qqqq--- system has been examined by solving the four-particle Schrödinger equation variationally. The main findings are that (1) qqqq--- bound states normally do not exist, (2) the cryptoexotic 0++ sector of this system with KK¯ quantum numbers is probably the only exception to (1) and its bound states can be identified with the S* and delta just below KK¯

  13. Does Cobol exist?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    F. P. Coyle

    2000-01-01

    At first glance, asking whether Cobol exists might seem like a ploy, a setup for describing how the billions of lines of Cobol in the world are responsible for almost every facet of daily life: from paychecks and utility bills to the entire computer based corporate infrastructure. Yet, although thousands of Cobol programmers are alive and well, keeping the wheels

  14. Case scenario - thoracic trauma.

    PubMed

    Michelet, P; Boussen, S

    2013-01-01

    Among trauma patients, blunt chest trauma remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. We report the case of an 85-year old patient under new oral anticoagulant implicated in a multiple-vehicle accident. The patient presented a complex thoracic trauma involving multiple rib fractures, flail chest, hemothorax and lung contusions. All the thoracic lesions were situated at the left side. Despite the absence of neurological lesion and hemodynamic instability, the patient required the admission in our intensive care unit related to the worsening of a respiratory distress. This respiratory distress resulted from the association of the thoracic injuries with related hypoxemia and a high level of pain. The management of this case included the reversal of the anticoagulant therapy, use of non-invasive ventilation, the placement of a paravertebral block and the surgical fixation of the flail chest. We provide a discussion of the risk/benefit balance for all the medical and surgical strategies used in this case as the interest of chest ultrasonography in thoracic trauma situations. PMID:23916516

  15. 5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities...NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF HANDICAP IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT § 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing...

  16. Existing power system

    SciTech Connect

    NONE

    1995-10-01

    This portion of the Energy Vision 2020 draft report is a description of TVA`s existing power system. The existing system provides 25,600 MWe of generating capacity in the summer-57% from coal-fired plants, 16% from hydro facilities, 13% from nuclear facilities, 8% from combustion turbines, and 6% from pumped-storage hydro facilities. Two nuclear units will be added in 1996, bringing the total installed capacity to 28,800 MWe. TVA also operates 16,000 miles of transmission lines to carry power from 42 generating sites to 750 wholesale delivery points. TVA also connects with 13 neighboring utilities at 57 different locations. In 1994, TVA generated 134 billion KWh of electricity, with 84% going to wholesalers and the balance going directly to industrial and federal customers. The revenue from these sales was $5.4 billion.

  17. Background Studies for EXIST

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Colleen A.; Pendleton, G. N.; Fishman, G. J.

    2004-01-01

    We present results from a study of the trapped proton and electron background for several orbital inclinations and altitudes. This study includes time dependent effects. In addition we describe a 3 component cosmic background model developed at the University of Southampton, UK. The three components are cosmic diffuse gamma rays, atmospheric albedo gamma rays, and cosmic ray protons. We present examples of how this model was applied to BATSE and discuss its application to EXIST.

  18. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  19. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  20. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  1. Can wormholes exist?

    E-print Network

    V. Khatsymovsky

    1993-10-23

    Renormalized vacuum expectation values of electromagnetic stress-energy tensor are calculated in the background spherically-symmetrical metric of the wormhole's topology. Covariant geodesic point separation method of regularization is used. Violation of the weak energy condition at the throat of wormhole takes place for geometry sufficiently close to that of infinitely long wormhole of constant radius irrespectively of the detailed form of metric. This is an argument in favour of possibility of existence of selfconsistent wormhole in empty space maintained by vacuum field fluctuations in the wormhole's background.

  2. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  3. Autophagic cell death exists

    PubMed Central

    Clarke, Peter G.H.; Puyal, Julien

    2012-01-01

    The term autophagic cell death (ACD) initially referred to cell death with greatly enhanced autophagy, but is increasingly used to imply a death-mediating role of autophagy, as shown by a protective effect of autophagy inhibition. In addition, many authors require that autophagic cell death must not involve apoptosis or necrosis. Adopting these new and restrictive criteria, and emphasizing their own failure to protect human osteosarcoma cells by autophagy inhibition, the authors of a recent Editor’s Corner article in this journal argued for the extreme rarity or nonexistence of autophagic cell death. We here maintain that, even with the more stringent recent criteria, autophagic cell death exists in several situations, some of which were ignored by the Editor’s Corner authors. We reject their additional criterion that the autophagy in ACD must be the agent of ultimate cell dismantlement. And we argue that rapidly dividing mammalian cells such as cancer cells are not the most likely situation for finding pure ACD. PMID:22652592

  4. Cross-Enterprise Business Process Management Architecture - Methods and Tools for Flexible Collaboration

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sven Zang; Anja Hofer; Otmar Adam

    2004-01-01

    \\u000a New forms of cooperation like collaborative business scenarios require a deep but flexible integration of enterprises. To\\u000a manage cross-organizational business processes existing concepts for business process management need to be adapted and extended.\\u000a In this paper an architecture is presented, that shows how cross-enterprise processes can be planned, implemented and controlled.\\u000a The architecture is based on the differentiation of global

  5. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian functions such as nutrient incorporation and sediment flux alterations.

  6. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  7. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (editor); Mckay, David S. (editor); Duke, Michael B. (editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  8. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Hugh Saddler; Mark Diesendorf; Richard Denniss

    2007-01-01

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a ‘fossil-fuel dependent’ country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting

  9. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  10. Using advanced technology repositories to accelerate simulation scenario development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trias, Eric; Mathias, Karl S.

    2002-07-01

    One of the more difficult problems facing an analyst wishing to use a simulation is the task of collecting data and transforming it into a correctly formatted scenario. Raw data is often available from a variety of sources: multi-spectral force deployment (MSFD) documents, the electronic warfare integrated reprogramming database (EWIRDB), free text documents such as intelligence reports, pre-existing simulation scenarios, and scenarios taken from other simulations. The task of transforming this data into a usable scenario involves searching for the relevant information, followed by a manual transformation of the original format to the correct simulation format. This problem can be greatly alleviated by using a combination of three technologies: automatic parser generation, repository architectures using extensible markup language (XML), and information retrieval (IR) techniques. Automatic parser generation tools like JavaCC can automatically generate source code capable of reading data sources such as old Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM) or Suppressor input files. For simulations that regularly add scenario keywords to support changing needs, this can greatly reduce redevelopment time and cost for supporting tools. The objects parsed by this source can then be encapsulated in XML and stored into a repository. Using information retrieval techniques, objects can then be queried from the repository and transformed into the appropriate format for use in a scenario.

  11. Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality

    E-print Network

    Dougherty, Daniel J.

    Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J. We present Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios

  12. Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality

    E-print Network

    Krishnamurthi, Shriram

    Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios and backtracking. It also

  13. A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

    PubMed Central

    Leggett, A. J.

    1999-01-01

    I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

  14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state tsunami program.

  15. Towards semi-automatic generation of training scenarios in industrial automated systems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Saher Arnous; Arnaud Lelevé; Khalid Kouiss; Patrick Prévôt

    2009-01-01

    In the context of E-Learning, remote hands-on training has become an insisting need as in traditional learning, especially in scientific and technical disciplines. Electronic Laboratories (ELabs) have been growing for the last few years. But till now, exchanging learning scenarios of ELabs is still difficult as existing scenarios (elaborated by means of standard ELearning authoring tools) are restricted to specific

  16. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine 14 (1998) 139155 Scenario recognition for temporal reasoning in

    E-print Network

    Dojat, Michel

    1998-01-01

    scenario S01 excerpt from the management of mechanical ventilation may have the following sequence (Fig. 1 imprecision attached to the occurrence date of some events. 1.1.1. Scenario recognition on the fly A simple ventilation. The last suctioning of the endotracheal tube is reported 2 h prior to the respiratory rate

  17. SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2

    E-print Network

    Diaconescu, Ada

    SCENARIOS FOR AN AUTONOMIC MICRO SMART GRID Sylvain Frey1,2 , François Huguet1 , Cédric Mivielle1 Systems, Micro Smart Grids. Abstract: Autonomic computing is a bio-inspired vision elaborated to manage presents a series of scenarios relative to micro smart grids ­ district-size "smart" electricity networks

  18. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Politzer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V. V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.; the ITPA Integrated Operation Scenario Topical Group Members; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; EFDA Contributors, JET; the JT-60U Team

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prospects for applications in ITER have been advanced significantly during that time, especially with respect to experimental results. The principal findings of this research activity are as follows. Inductive scenarios capable of higher normalized pressure (?N ? 2.4) than the ITER baseline scenario (?N = 1.8) with normalized confinement at or above the standard H-mode scaling are well established under stationary conditions on the four largest diverted tokamaks (AUG, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U), demonstrated in a database of more than 500 plasmas from these tokamaks analysed here. The parameter range where high performance is achieved is broad in q95 and density normalized to the empirical density limit. MHD modes can play a key role in reaching stationary high performance, but also define the limits to achieved stability and confinement. Projection of performance in ITER from existing experiments uses empirical scalings and theory-based modelling. The status of the experimental validation of both approaches is summarized here. The database shows significant variation in the energy confinement normalized to standard H-mode confinement scalings, indicating the possible influence of additional physics variables absent from the scalings. Tests using the available information on rotation and the ratio of the electron and ion temperatures indicate neither of these variables in isolation can explain the variation in normalized confinement observed. Trends in the normalized confinement with the two dimensionless parameters that vary most from present-day experiments to ITER, gyroradius and collision frequency, are significant. Regression analysis on the multi-tokamak database has been performed, but it appears that the database is not conditioned sufficiently well to yield a new scaling for this type of plasma. Coordinated experiments on size scaling using the dimensionless parameter scaling approach find a weaker scaling with normalized gyroradius than the standard H-mode scaling. Preliminary studies on scaling with collision frequency show a favourable scaling stronger than the standard H-mode scaling. Coordinated modelling activity has resulted in successful benchmarking of modelling codes in the ITER regime. Validation of transport models using these codes on present-day experiments is in progress, but no single model has been shown to capture the variations seen in the experiments. However, projection to ITER using these models is in general agreement with the favourable projections found with the empirical scalings.

  19. Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Carmen Difiglio; Dolf Gielen

    2007-01-01

    If hydrogen (H2) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be\\u000a produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways H2 can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several H2 scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In

  20. Two scenarios for overcoming drug resistance by co-targeting.

    PubMed

    Taheri, Golnaz; Ayati, Marzieh; Wong, Limsoon; Eslahchi, Changiz

    2015-01-01

    Removal of proteins on an essential pathway of a pathogen is expected to prohibit the pathogen from performing a vital function. To disrupt these pathways, we consider a cut set S of simple graph G, where G representing the PPI network of the pathogen. After removing S, if the difference of sizes of two partitions is high, the probability of existence of a functioning pathway is increased. We need to partition the graph into balanced partitions and approximate it with spectral bipartitioning. We consider two scenarios: in the first, we do not have any information on drug targets; in second, we consider information on drug targets. Our databases are E. coli and C. jejuni. In the first scenario, 20% and 17% of proteins in cut of E. coli and C. jejuni are drug targets and in the second scenario 53% and 63% of proteins in cut are drug targets respectively. PMID:25667386

  1. Pseudo-Dirac Neutrino Scenario: Cosmic Neutrinos at Neutrino Telescopes

    E-print Network

    Arman Esmaili

    2009-09-29

    Within the "pseudo-Dirac" scenario for massive neutrinos the existence of sterile neutrinos which are almost degenerate in mass with the active ones is hypothesized. The presence of these sterile neutrinos can affect the flavor composition of cosmic neutrinos arriving at Earth after traveling large distances from astrophysical objects. We examine the prospects of neutrino telescopes such as IceCube to probe the very tiny mass squared differences 10^(-12) eV^2pseudo-Dirac neutrino scenario and especially to discriminate it from the conventional scenario with no sterile neutrino. We also discuss the robustness of our results with respect to the uncertainties in the initial flavor ratio of neutrinos at the source.

  2. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. PMID:25976302

  3. Co-existence of agricultural production systems.

    PubMed

    Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut

    2006-05-01

    Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism. PMID:16545877

  4. Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent

    PubMed Central

    Nishant; Kumari, Renu

    2014-01-01

    The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

  5. Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent.

    PubMed

    Nishant; Kumari, Renu

    2014-07-01

    The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

  6. Modelling of disaster risk scenarios at La Soufrière, Guadeloupe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Susanna; Spence, Robin; Baxter, Peter; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Barsotti, Sara; Esposti-Ongaro, Tomaso; Neri, Augusto

    2013-04-01

    As part of the CASAVA project, potential consequences of an eruption at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, have been quantified for the local population and infrastructure through development of an impact model. For a given eruption scenario, and on a 250m grid, the model incorporates hazard information about areas potentially affected by ash fall (vertical loading) and/or pyroclastic density currents (peak dynamic pressure, temperature and duration) sourced from numerical modelling able to describe the transient and 3D features of the phenomena. This is combined with vulnerability information derived from engineering and medical analyses of the exposure and response of humans and buildings to these hazards. Model outputs include maps of the numbers and severity of human casualties and building damage for each given scenario. The impact model is further coupled with a dynamic casualty management model that then tracks the rescue, transport and treatment of casualties to estimate the impact of the eruption on the emergency services and on casualty numbers with time following the eruption. This allows dynamic mapping of human survival in space and time following the eruption scenario and can be combined in GIS with emergency management data to support public officials responsible for planning for a crisis. To identify suitable actions that could be taken to reduce the loss of lives and infrastructure, the consequences from different disaster risk scenarios can be tested by varying the crisis conditions for each model run. For example, by incorporating short- and long-term mitigation activities (e.g. partial evacuation, construction of additional road capacity), differing emergency management (e.g. the location of triage centres) or simulating alternative disaster conditions (e.g. reduced rescuing capacity because of ashy conditions). The models are deliberately generic in nature and could be applied to any volcano, or to other natural hazards, providing input hazard scenarios and appropriate exposure and vulnerability data are available.

  7. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.

  8. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem. The analyses show that there will be much more water available in future under the considered emission scenarios but in some months there will be scarcity of water. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, the scarcity of water can be minimized considerably. Finally, a meta-analysis has been performed to present a combined picture of all scenarios considered in this study. One way to avoid water scarcity is to upgrade and install new reservoirs and water storage capacities to reserve the extra water during high river flow in Indus River, which will then be utilized during low river flow. __________________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Climate Change, Hydro-power, Indus River, Tarbela Reservoir, Upper Indus Basin, Meta-analysis, Hydrological model.

  9. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  10. 30 CFR 227.111 - Do existing delegation agreements remain in effect?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Do existing delegation agreements remain in effect? 227.111...THE INTERIOR MINERALS REVENUE MANAGEMENT DELEGATION TO STATES Existing Delegations § 227.111 Do existing delegation...

  11. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

  12. Visualizing inter-dependencies between scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David Harel; Itai Segall

    2008-01-01

    One of the main challenges in understanding a scenario- based speciflcation of a reactive system is rooted in the inter-dependencies between the scenarios. These are inher- ently implicit in the very idea of scenario-based program- ming. We introduce a graph-based visualization of such inter-dependencies, and implement it in a tool we call SIV (for Scenario Inter-dependency Visualization), which sup- plies

  13. Comet Splitting - Observations and Model Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boehnhardt, Hermann

    2000-10-01

    Splitting events affect cometary nuclei to a different level of severity ranging from complete disruption of the nucleus (e.g., C/1999 S4 LINEAR) to separation of major fragments (e.g., 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3) and spill-offs of smaller boulders (e.g., C/2001 A2 LINEAR).Fragmentation of comets produces secondary products over a wide range of sizes (from cometesimals to sub-micron dust). It is detectable through the presence of fragments (with own comae and tails) in the coma of the parent nucleus, through outbursts in its activity and through arc-lets (“coma wings”)associated with fragments. The secondaries have different life times and show different non-gravitational forces. Nucleus splitting is also considered to generate whole families of comets (Kreutz group) or — if gravitational bound — multiple nuclei (e.g., C/1995 O1 Hale-Bopp). It may explain the striae phenomena seen in dust tails of bright comets (C/1995 O1 Hale-Bopp) and the detection of chains of impact craters onother bodies in the solar system. As process of significant mass loss it is relevant for the scenario of nucleus extinction, at the same time it also plays a role for the number statistics of existing (observable) comets and for the size distribution of comet nuclei. Various model scenarios for nucleus splitting are proposed: tidal disruption, rotational splitting, break-up due to internal gas pressure, fragmentation due to collision with other bodies. Only in one case, Comet D/1993 F1Shoemaker-Levy 9, the physical process of fragmentation could be undoubtedly identified. In any case, comet splitting provides important insights inthe internal structure, surface layering and chemistry of comet nuclei.

  14. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  15. Existence and non-existence of breather solutions in damped and driven nonlinear lattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennig, D.

    2013-10-01

    We investigate the existence of spatially localised solutions, in the form of discrete breathers, in general damped and driven nonlinear lattice systems of coupled oscillators. Conditions for the exponential decay of the difference between the maximal and minimal amplitudes of the oscillators are provided which proves that initial non-uniform spatial patterns representing breathers attain exponentially fast a spatially uniform state preventing the formation and/or preservation of any breather solution at all. Strikingly our results are generic in the sense that they hold for arbitrary dimension of the system, any attractive interaction, coupling strength and on-site potential and general driving fields. Furthermore, our rigorous quantitative results establish conditions under which discrete breathers in general damped and driven nonlinear lattices can exist at all and open the way for further research on the emergent dynamical scenarios, in particular features of pattern formation, localisation and synchronisation, in coupled cell networks.

  16. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID:24361447

  17. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

  18. Development Of Strategy For The Management Of LLW In The United Kingdom

    SciTech Connect

    Wareing, A.S. [Nexia Solutions Ltd, Risley, Warrington, Cheshire, WA (United Kingdom); Fisher, J. [Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, Herdus House, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria, CA24 3HU (United Kingdom)

    2008-07-01

    The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is a UK non-departmental public body with a remit to clean up the civil public sector nuclear legacy. Much work has been done to date on developing contractor competition for the management of NDA-owned sites, including the UK's principal disposal facility: the Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) in Cumbria. The competition goals and principles are integrated with the framework for the development of a UK Low Level Waste (LLW) management plan, through which the NDA will deliver its commitments to UK Government and stakeholders. Nexia Solutions has undertaken work for the NDA in assessing strategic options and scenarios for the management and disposal of current UK LLW. The volumetric, radiological and strategic limitations of existing disposition routes have been assessed against the inventories and characteristics of LLW forecast to arise. A number of potential alternative scenarios and variants for future LLW management have been modelled and assessed. (authors)

  19. BunchBunch RecombinerRecombiner for afor a ++--Collider Cooling ScenarioCollider Cooling Scenario

    E-print Network

    McDonald, Kirk

    1 BunchBunch RecombinerRecombiner for afor a ++-- Collider Cooling ScenarioCollider Cooling/MC Concepts developed during study 2A Extend to Collider need bunch recombiner Use See MuCOOL Note 548 (March 2010) #12;3 Collider ScenarioCollider Scenario Scenario requires bunch recombiner half

  20. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  1. EPR accident scenarios and provisions

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Dietmar Bittermann; Ulrich Krugmann; Garo Azarian

    2001-01-01

    For the EPR an improved defence-in-depth concept is applied. In an evolutionary way, accident control is developed from existing French and German PWR designs, thereby achieving a high safety level quantified by probabilistic safety assessment. Independent of that, severe accidents are considered in the design. By a robust containment and severe accident mitigation measures, the need for offsite emergency response

  2. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration.

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; Jungels, John; Oppel, Fred J., [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these chal- lenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in %22cloud%22 computing and %22big-data%22 methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing envirnoment that could provide the foundation (i.e. %22cloud%22) for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of %22parallel multi-simulation%22. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  3. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

  4. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis of flood risks in aging-dam management in China: a framework and case study.

    PubMed

    Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

    2011-05-01

    Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

  5. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  6. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qihong; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-05-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state w of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once w reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if w approaches a constant at t ?-?, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if w decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the emergent scenario that avoids the big bang singularity can be successfully implemented in the EC theory of gravity.

  7. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  8. Soil erosion risk scenarios in the Mediterranean environment using RUSLE and GIS: An application model for Calabria (southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terranova, O.; Antronico, L.; Coscarelli, R.; Iaquinta, P.

    2009-11-01

    Soil erosion by water (WSE) has become a relevant issue at the Mediterranean level. In particular, natural conditions and human impact have made the Calabria (southern Italy) particularly prone to intense WSE. The purpose of this investigation is to identify areas highly affected by WSE in Calabria by comparing the scenarios obtained by assuming control and preventive measures and actions, as well as actual conditions generated by forest fires, also in the presence of conditions of maximum rainfall erosion. Geographic Information System techniques have been adopted to treat data of reasonable spatial resolution obtained at a regional scale for application to the RUSLE model. This work is based on the comparison of such data with a basic scenario that has been defined by the present situation (present scenario). In this scenario: (i) R has been assessed by means of an experimental relation adjusted to Calabria on the basis of 5-min observations; (ii) K has been drawn from the soil map of Calabria including 160 soilscapes; (iii) LS has been estimated according to the RUSLE2 model by using (among other subfactors) a 40-m square cell DTM; (iv) C has been derived by processing the data inferred from the project Corine Land Cover, whose legend includes 35 different land uses on three levels; and (v) P has been hypothesized as equal to 1. For the remaining three hypothesized scenarios, the RUSLE factors have been adjusted according to experimental data and to data in the literature. In particular, forest areas subject to fire have been randomly generated as far as fire location, extension, structure, and intensity are concerned. The values obtained by the application of the RUSLE model have emphasized that land management by means of measures and actions for reducing WSE causes a notable reduction of the erosive rate decreasing from ~30 to 12.3 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . On the other hand, variations induced by hypothetical wildfires in forests on 10% of the regional territory bring WSE over the whole region to values varying from 30 to 116 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . This study can be offered to territorial planning authorities as an evaluation instrument as it highlights the merits and limitations of some territorial management actions. In fact, in Calabria no observations exist concerning the implications of these actions.

  9. Logistics resupply scenario for the Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powell, L.; Hoodless, R. M., Jr.; Stebbins, J. A.

    1986-01-01

    The paper addresses an approach to developing an integrated scenario definition, operations considerations and hardware concepts development cycle that will provide the most effective set of concepts meeting Space Station logistics criteria. Attention is given to logistics system requirements sources, design package team involvement, requirements analysis and development, scenario development and evaluation, and logistics elements configuration. It is noted that the surviving set of integrated scenarios provided hardware and support requirements with built in discipline compliance and operational sensitivity.

  10. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  11. How should indicators be found for scenario monitoring ?

    E-print Network

    He, Zheng, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning is a widely used approach for developing long-term strategies. The typical scenario process involves developing scenarios, identifying strategies whose success is contingent on the scenario, and monitoring ...

  12. The Unified First law in "Cosmic Triad" Vector Field Scenario

    E-print Network

    Yi Zhang; Yungui Gong; Zong-Hong Zhu

    2011-08-04

    In this letter, we try to apply the unified first law to the "cosmic triad" vector field scenario both in the minimal coupling case and in the non-minimalcoupling case. After transferring the non-minimally coupling action in Jordan frame to Einstein frame, the correct dynamical equation (Friedmann equation) is gotten in a thermal equilibrium process by using the already existing entropy while the entropy in the non-minimal coupled "cosmic triad" scenario has not been derived. And after transferring the variables back to Jordan frame, the corresponding Friedmann equation is demonstrated to be correct. For complete arguments, we also calculate the related Misner-Sharp energy in Jordan and Einstein frames.

  13. Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony; Vance, Tessa; Roberts, Jason; Ho, Michelle

    2015-04-01

    Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers can robustly deal with such uncertainty.

  14. Efficient Access Control of Sensitive Data Service in Outsourcing Scenarios Yang ZHANG and Jun-Liang CHEN

    E-print Network

    Efficient Access Control of Sensitive Data Service in Outsourcing Scenarios Yang ZHANG and Jun-oriented technologies, service and data outsourcing has become a practical and useful computing paradigm. Combined use in this outsourcing scenario. However, existing approaches often limit dynamical update of access control policy

  15. 32 CFR 239.10 - Management Controls.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...Headquarters, USACE has an existing information management system that manages all information related to the HAP program. (1... The Homeowners Assistance Program Management Information System (HAPMIS) provides program...

  16. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized

  17. Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tom Kram; Tsuneyuki Morita; Keywan Riahi; R. Alexander Roehrl; Sascha Van Rooijen; Alexei Sankovski; Bert De Vries

    2000-01-01

    This article presents a set of 30 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios developed by six modeling teams. The scenarios describe trajectories up to 2100 by four world regions. Today the distribution of both income and GHG emissions is very unbalanced between various world regions. Furthermore, the relative importance of individual gases and sources of emission differ from region to region.

  18. Scenario based threat detection and attack analysis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Pi-Cheng Hsiu; Chin-Fu Kuo; Tei-Wei Kuo; E. Y. T. Juan

    2005-01-01

    This paper targets two essential issues in intrusion detection system designs: the optimization of rule selection and the attack discovery in attack analysis. A scenario-based approach is proposed to correlate malicious packets and to intelligently select intrusion detection rules to fire. We propose algorithms for rule selection and attack scenario identification. Potential threats and their relationship for a gateway and

  19. Modeling Emergency Scenarios Algebraic Higher Order Nets

    E-print Network

    Wichmann, Felix

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.1.1 Scenario 1: Gas Leak in a Residential Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.1.2 Scenario 2: Explosion of a Gas Pipeline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 4.2 General Requirements.2.1 The Group Nets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 7.2.2 Gas Measure - An Example

  20. Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a

    E-print Network

    DEMAND Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future #12;#12;TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES SERIES: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future Government or any agency thereof. #12;iv ABOUT THE TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES PROJECT This is one

  1. CAN HYDROGEN WIN?: EXPLORING SCENARIOS FOR HYDROGEN

    E-print Network

    CAN HYDROGEN WIN?: EXPLORING SCENARIOS FOR HYDROGEN FUELLED VEHICLES by Katherine Aminta Muncaster of Research Project: Can Hydrogen Win?: Exploring Scenarios for Hydrogen Fuelled Vehicles Report No.: 459- and near-zero emission vehicles. Hydrogen was found to gain less market share than other options

  2. Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Osvaldo E. Sala; F. Stuart Chapin III; Juan J. Armesto; Eric Berlow; Janine Bloomfield; Rodolfo Dirzo; Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald; Laura F. Huenneke; Robert B. Jackson; David M. Lodge; Harold A. Mooney; N. LeRoy Poff; Martin T. Sykes; Brian H. Walker; Diana H. Wall

    2000-01-01

    Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the

  3. Utilizing Scenarios in the Software Development Process

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kevin Benner; Martin S. Feather; W. Lewis Johnson; Lorna A. Zorman

    1993-01-01

    Scenarios play an important role throughout the information system development process.Scenarios are partial descriptions of system and environment behavior arising inrestricted situations. They are instrumental to the following activities: describing andclarifying the relevant properties of the application domain, uncovering system requirements,evaluating design alternatives, and validating designs. This paper will describethese roles in the context of an example and explain how...

  4. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  5. A Brace of Agent Simulation Scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Martyn Fletcher; Pavel Vrba

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a pair of agent simulation scenarios from the defense and manufacturing domains using COTS agent simulation products from Agent Oriented Software and Rockwell Automation. These scenarios highlight the requirements for exploring how the agents should behave autonomously and interact socially to ensure the overall simulation plays out coherently

  6. Scenario description for multi-agent simulation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yohei Murakami; Toru Ishida; Tomoyuki Kawasoe; Reiko Hishiyama

    2003-01-01

    Making it easier to design interactions between agents and humans is essential for realizing multi-agent simulations of social phenomena such as group dynamics. To realize large-scale social simulations, we have developed the scenario description languages Q and IPC (Interaction Pattern Card); they enable experts in the application domain (often not computing professionals) to easily create complex scenarios. We have also

  7. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

  8. Existence of symmetric central configurations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montaldi, James

    2015-06-01

    Central configurations have been of great interest over many years, with the earliest examples due to Euler and Lagrange. There are numerous results in the literature demonstrating the existence of central configurations with specific symmetry properties, using slightly different techniques in each. The aim here is to describe a uniform approach by adapting to the symmetric case the well-known variational argument showing the existence of central configurations. The principal conclusion is that there is a central configuration for every possible symmetry type, and for any symmetric choice of masses. Finally the same argument is applied to the class of balanced configurations introduced by Albouy and Chenciner.

  9. Existing reactor expansion study basis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Heacock

    1959-01-01

    The latest HAPO Five Year Program review, HW-59633, forecasts substantial increases in Pu production from the eight existing Hanford reactors over the next several years. These production increases would be attained by a combination of several methods which include increased reactor power levels resulting from higher process water flow rates and coolant bulk outlet temperatures, improved time operated efficiency, higher

  10. Existing reactor expansion study basis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Heacock

    1959-01-01

    The latest HAPO Five Year Program review, indicates that significant increases in Pu production from the eight existing Hanford reactors may be achieved. These production increases would be attained by a combination of several methods including increased process water flow rates, reactor coolant outlet temperature, improved time operated efficiency, conversion ratio and induced transient reactivity looses. In order to provide

  11. Magnetohydrodynamic turbulent flows: Existence results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sango, Mamadou

    2010-06-01

    In this paper we provide a detailed investigation of the problem of existence of solutions to the stochastic magnetohydrodynamic equations which describe the motion of turbulent particles of fluids in a magnetic field. The results are proved through a delicate combination of Galerkin approximation scheme with some deep compactness results of analytic and probabilistic nature.

  12. Can Boltzmann Soliton Star Exist?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Rukeng; Chen, Xuelei; Pan, Rongshi

    1992-12-01

    The fermion soliton stars suggested by Lee and Pang are extended to finite temperature. The degeneracy temperature TD above which the fermion soliton star will become a Boltzmann soliton star is given. We prove that the Boltzmann soliton star cannot exist, because it is unstable.

  13. On Adler-Bell-Jackiw Anomaly in 3-brane Scenario

    E-print Network

    W. F. Chen; R. B. Mann

    2002-04-15

    We investigate the ABJ anomaly in the framework of an effective field theory for a 3-brane scenario and show that the contribution from induced gravity on the brane depends on both the topological structure of the bulk space-time and the embedding of the brane in the bulk. This fact implies the existence of a non-trivial vacuum structure of bulk quantum gravity. Furthermore, we argue that this axial gravitational anomaly may not necessarily be cancelled by choosing the matter content on the brane since it could be considered as a possible effect from bulk quantum gravity.

  14. Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.

  15. Scenarios for integrated river catchment and coastal zone management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. Ledoux; N. Beaumont; R. Cave; R. K. Turner

    2005-01-01

    The European Water Framework Directive requires EU Member States to introduce water quality objectives for all water bodies, including coastal waters. Measures will have to be introduced if these objectives are not met, given predictions based on current trends. In this context, the estimation of future fluxes of nutrients and contaminants in the catchment, and the evaluation of policies to

  16. Stand establishment: Researching operational vegetation management scenarios designed to

    E-print Network

    Release Spring Release Year 2 (2007) Description Year 1 (2006) Spring Release Spring Release, Glyphosate Release, Glyphosate Release Fall Site Prep, Spring Release, Glyphosate Release No Control No Control Fall Site Prep = Chopper and Accord Spring Release = Atrazine and Transline Glyphosate Release = 2

  17. Issues and scenarios for self-managing grid middleware

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Philippe Collet; Filip K?ikava; Johan Montagnat; Mireille Blay-Fornarino; David Manset

    2010-01-01

    Despite significant efforts to achieve reliable grid middlewares, grid infrastructures still encounter important difficulties to implement the promise of ubiquitous, seamless and transparent computing. Identified causes are numerous, such as the complexity of middleware stacks, dependence to many distributed resources, heterogeneity of hardware and software operated or incompatibilities between software components declared as interoperable. Based on failures that occurred during

  18. Antibiotic resistance to Propionobacterium acnes: worldwide scenario, diagnosis and management.

    PubMed

    Sardana, Kabir; Gupta, Tanvi; Garg, Vijay K; Ghunawat, Sneha

    2015-07-01

    Antibiotic resistance in cutaneous Propionobacterium is a global problem. As a general rule, resistance levels are high to macrolides, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and clindamycin, while tetracyclines and levofloxacin have low resistance potential. Newer preparations like doxycycline MR and doxycycline 20 mg are subantimicrobial and may not lead to resistance. Sampling techniques are crucial to determine resistance. Genomic evaluation using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing can be useful in diagnosing mutations and mapping phylotypes of Propionobacterium acnes. Resistance may lead to slow response and relapses. Apart from benzoyl peroxide, azelaic acid, topical dapsone, oral zinc and retinoids, novel molecules with little resistance potential include octadecenedioic acid, phytosphingosine, lauric acid, retapamulin, resveratrol, T-3912 and NB-003. The use of oral retinoids and non-antibiotics like zinc can prevent resistance and help reduce the dependence on antibiotics. PMID:26025191

  19. A novel scenario-based information security management exercise

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael R. Grimaila

    2004-01-01

    In an environment of continually growing security threats, it is essential to raise the information security (INFOSEC) awareness and capabilities of ALL students entering the workforce. When considering INFOSEC education in the academic community, one often overlooked group is business students. However, the recognition and mitigation of information security risk is not only vital to the well being and survival

  20. Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools

    E-print Network

    Riddle, Austin Christopher

    2008-10-10

    of people all over are writhing and vomiting!” Remote Triage Center establishment planned. Increased medical personnel requested. +25 min. Chemical makeup of plume identified. Incident Action Plan is established. Evacuation mandated and plan...

  1. Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools 

    E-print Network

    Riddle, Austin Christopher

    2008-10-10

    Training emergency response decision makers using live, virtual and/or constructive simulations can be highly complex since certain situations can generate stimulusresponse cycles that depend significantly on unpredictable human judgments...

  2. Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots

    E-print Network

    Allan, Vicki H.

    . The design of a computer model used to investigate issues of trust and the impact of reliability: A bomb disposal robot (left) and a UAV (right).Photographs from U.S. Air Force. The situation has been somewhat different in combat areas, where bomb disposal robots and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have

  3. Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

    1997-01-01

    ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

  4. 7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134...REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

  5. 7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134...REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

  6. 5 CFR 550.164 - Construction and computation of existing aggregate rates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Construction and computation of existing aggregate...Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PAY ADMINISTRATION...Pay on An Annual Basis § 550.164 Construction and computation of existing...

  7. Design Evaluation Process for Existing Waste Removal Design Documents

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, P.D.

    1995-05-12

    This document provides guidelines for implementing Engineering`s responsibility relating to evaluating the adequacy of existing project design outputs. At this time, there exists design documents that were prepared and approved for modifications to operating facilities, that may or may not have been constructed, but have never been turned over to the Operating Facility Management. The process described herein describes the methodology to perform an evaluation of these existing designs and document the findings. The key elements in this process are (1) to evaluate the existing design for general adequacy of the design, (2) to evaluate the existing design due to changes subsequent to the issuance of the documents (i.e. lessons learned, codes or standards change, changes to input documents, ect.), and (3) to verify the existence of critical supporting documentation in the areas of personnel safety, facility safety or environmental compliance.

  8. Refining Gold from Existing Data

    PubMed Central

    Wade, Ted D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose of review The purpose is to review the arguments for increasing use of existing data in health research. Recent Findings The reuse of data in observational, exploratory and outcome studies, as well as in confirming other findings, is being justified on epistemological grounds as the major path to new knowledge and to the generalizing of findings to “real world” populations. It is also justified on grounds of cost, power and efficiency, even though data reuse comes with real informatics, scientific culture, societal and regulatory issues. Summary Data reuse is becoming more compelling. When contemplating new research for any purpose other than RCTs for efficacy, it is prudent to consider whether partnership with existing data holders should be part of the optimal research plan. PMID:24625777

  9. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    E-print Network

    Gianmassimo Tasinato

    2015-03-03

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  10. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  11. Landscape visualisation tools and methods: Decision making with scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    E. L. Smith; I. D. Bishop; R. M. Ford

    2009-01-01

    Landscapes reflect the multifunctional nature of land and the complex relationships that exist between society and the environment. Land management systems have evolved to provide resources to meet societal demand but within a human lifetime these practices can significantly change both the landscape and the relationship that people have with the affected land. Land uses have differing, often conflicting objectives

  12. Does Altruism Undermine Existence Value?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. E. McConnell

    1997-01-01

    The debate over the use of contingent valuation for existence values or passive-use values has failed to explore the validity of motives for such values. One potential motive, altruism, has conflicting implications for benefit-cost analysis, depending on whether the altruist is paternalistic. This paper constructs models of three types of altruism and shows how benefit-cost analysis responds to each type

  13. Evaluating the environmental impacts of a land use scenario for bioenergy production in the Midwest U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.; Twine, T. E.; Hill, J.

    2012-12-01

    A variety of land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios are being developed in the Midwest United States (U.S.) to meet bioenergy production goals. Differences in these scenarios (e.g., maize vs. perennial grass and areal distribution) could result in different impacts to water resources and carbon emissions. Thus it is important to comprehensively evaluate the potential effects of LULC scenarios on the environment. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed one land cover scenario in the Midwest U.S. to meet the projected bioenergy production demands in 2020. In this study we use Agro-IBIS, a global dynamic ecosystem model, to evaluate how this scenario might affect future water and carbon budgets. The model represents a wide range of processes including leaf and canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics, and nutrient cycling in both natural and managed ecosystems. The model is capable of simulating crop growth and behavior by taking into account management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. By comparing the simulation results from the current land cover and future land cover scenario, we evaluate the potential impact on regional hydrology, carbon sequestration, and biomass production as a result of this particular scenario's land cover change. Future work will evaluate additional scenarios and could contribute to improvements in scenario development.

  14. IPCC Scenarios for the Year 2100

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Robert A. Rhode

    The figure summarizes some of the key variations amongst the six illustrative scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in considering possible future emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century.

  15. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  16. Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.

    2003-02-26

    With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.

  17. Coherent delocalization: Views of entanglement in different scenarios

    E-print Network

    R. de J. León-Montiel; A. Vallés; H. M. Moya-Cessa; J. P. Torres

    2015-06-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compose the system of interest.

  18. Coherent delocalization: Views of entanglement in different scenarios

    E-print Network

    León-Montiel, R de J; Moya-Cessa, H M; Torres, J P

    2015-01-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compo...

  19. Climate change scenarios for the California region

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniel R. Cayan; Edwin P. Maurer; Michael D. Dettinger; Mary Tyree; Katharine Hayhoe

    2008-01-01

    To investigate possible future climate changes in California, a set of climate change model simulations was selected and evaluated.\\u000a From the IPCC Fourth Assessment, simulations of twenty-first century climates under a B1 (low emissions) and an A2 (a medium-high\\u000a emissions) emissions scenarios were evaluated, along with occasional comparisons to the A1fi (high emissions) scenario. The\\u000a climate models whose simulations were

  20. Coal chemicals -- The Indian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bhattacharya, R.N. [Central Fuel Research Inst., Dhanbad (India)

    1998-12-31

    Presently the production of coal chemicals in India is primarily based on by-products of high temperature and low temperature carbonization of coal/lignite. There are seven major steel plants in different parts of the country, each having their own coking plants. The total production figures of coal tar and benzole from these plants are about 373,400 tonnes (te) and 40,500 te respectively. In addition, about 4,000 te of coal tar is available from the small and medium scale coking plants. There exists about 15 coal tar distillation units, mostly in the steel plants, having facilities for the recovery and processing of by-products. The total tar distillation capacity is about 1,530 tpd including 230 tpd available in the state and private sectors. Currently, only seven important chemicals, namely ammonium sulfate, benzene, toluene, xylenes, naphthalene, phenol and cresols are recovered from high temperature tar. In addition, three low temperature carbonization units are in operation. The installed capacity of the briquetting and carbonization plant at Neyveli (Tamil Nadu) is 1.5 million tpa of raw lignite designated to produce about 33,800 te of tar apart from 3,350 te of neutral oil and 2,820 te of phenols. The other two units at Ramakrishnapuram (Andhra Pradesh) and Dankuni (West Bengal) have throughputs of 900 te and 1,500 te of non-coking coal per day respectively. Chemicals likely to be available from these units are phenol, cresols, xylenols and high boiling tar acids. The by-products of coal carbonization are, however, not sufficient to meet the present day demand of organic chemicals in the country so that many of these chemicals are now obtained from petro-sources including natural gas as well as by synthetic route. This paper presents the current status of technology available in India and discusses how a change in the outlook to consider coal as a chemical feedstock rather than a fuel can make coal chemicals a viable option for chemical industry, at least in some specialized fields of applications, until such time as some more dependable alternative source is identified.

  1. Hydrologic Prediction in the Pacific Northwest: An Integrated Scenarios Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores Cervantes, J. H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Hegewisch, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Mote, P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Climate and hydrologic projections indicate changes in the water resources of the Pacific Northwest in the coming decades - in particular, reduced mountain snowpack, with more runoff in winter and less in spring and summer in many of the region's streams. These changes will have implications for water management and potential shifts in ecosystems. Generally climate, hydrology and vegetation studies are carried out independently, resulting in an array of estimates that sometimes are incongruent. We report on a collaborative and coordinated effort to produce integrated future scenarios of climate, hydrology and vegetation for the region, but focus on the hydrological modeling aspect of it. For this work we use a subset of ten of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) global climate models (GCMs) as archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and two anthropogenic forcing pathways (RCP4.5/RCP8.5), with an emphasis on the implications of future climate scenarios for the hydrology of the Pacific Northwest. We evaluate methods to downscale the coarse resolution GCM data (1-2 degrees latitude by longitude) to the finer hydrologic modeling resolution (1/16 degrees). Future hydrologic scenarios were produced using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, forced with downscaled GCM data, at a 3-hourly, 1/16-degree spatial resolution. Among the variables produced were: evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, base flow and runoff, sensible and latent heat, and net radiation. We present preliminary results of our modeling effort, including changes in climatology for specific locations in the domain and spatial maps of average values of each variable in the region during different future periods. In general, as mean temperatures rise, there is an increase in evapotranspiration losses at the expense of water available for runoff, and both base flow (especially in summer) and soil moisture decrease by the 2040-2070 future scenarios, relative to the 1970-1999 historical period.

  2. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  3. MODELLING AND SIMULATING PROCESS-ORIENTED KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

    E-print Network

    Anjewierden, Anjo

    scenarios. Key words: process-oriented knowledge management, knowledge management business modelMODELLING AND SIMULATING PROCESS-ORIENTED KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT Irina Shostak¹, Anjo Anjewierden and executable model of a company that includes business processes, knowledge processes and the relationships

  4. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  5. Monitoring and Control in Scenario-Based Requirements Analysis

    E-print Network

    Bae, Doo-Hwan

    scenarios are detected #12;9 / 19 Implied Scenarios (3/3) Example Boiler Control System Implied Scenario of Boiler Control System Control pressure #12;10 / 19 Input-Output Implied Scenarios (1/4) AbilityMonitoring and Control in Scenario-Based Requirements Analysis Emmanuel Letier, Jeff Kramer, Jeff

  6. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

  7. Searching for existing nuclear data

    SciTech Connect

    Tesmer, J.R. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)); Cokal, H.; Maggiore, C.J. (National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DC (USA). Center for Materials Science)

    1989-01-01

    As an example of finding existing data useful for high energy and heavy ion materials analysis the Nuclear Structure References of Brookhaven National Laboratory's National Nuclear Data Center was searched. The search was limited to incident ions of mass {le} 7 amu (excluding alphas) with energies under 100 MeV, and the target nuclei were limited to mass {le} 30 amu. Ease of use, time necessary for retrieval as well as pertinence was explored. Examples of applicable data found during the search are presented. 8 refs., 1 tab.

  8. Does Zeeman's Fine Topology Exist?

    E-print Network

    Norberto Sainz

    2012-01-23

    We work on the family of topologies for the Minkowski manifold M. We partially order this family by inclusion to form the lattice \\Sigma(M), and focus on the sublattice Z of topologies that induce the Euclidean metric space on every time axis and every space axis. We analyze the bounds of Z in the lattice \\Sigma(M), in search for its supremum. Our conclusion --that such a supremum does not belong in Z-- is compared with constructive proofs of existence of the fine topology, defined as the maximum of Z and conceived to play an essential role in contemporary physical theories. Essential mathematical and physical questions arise.

  9. Existence of mesons after deconfinement

    E-print Network

    F. Brau; F. Buisseret

    2007-10-24

    We investigate the possibility for a quark-antiquark pair to form a bound state at temperatures higher than the critical one ($T>T_c$), thus after deconfinement. Our main goal is to find analytical criteria constraining the existence of such mesons. Our formalism relies on a Schr\\"{o}dinger equation for which we study the physical consequences of both using the free energy and the internal energy as potential term, assuming a widely accepted temperature-dependent Yukawa form for the free energy and a recently proposed nonperturbative form for the screening mass. We show that using the free energy only allows for the 1S bottomonium to be bound above $T_c$, with a dissociation temperature around $1.5\\times T_c$. The situation is very different with the internal energy, where we show that no bound states at all can exist in the deconfined phase. But, in this last case, quasi-bound states could be present at higher temperatures because of a positive barrier appearing in the potential.

  10. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  11. Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

  12. On the existence of stable seasonally varying Arctic sea ice

    E-print Network

    Moon, W

    2012-01-01

    Within the framework lower order thermodynamic theories for the climatic evolution of Arctic sea ice we isolate the conditions required for the existence of stable seasonally-varying ice states. This is done by constructing a two-season model from the continuously evolving theory of Eisenman and Wettlaufer (2009) and showing that the necessary and sufficient condition for stable seasonally-varying states resides in the relaxation of the constant annual average short-wave radiative forcing. This forcing is examined within the scenario of greenhouse gas warming, as a function of which stability conditions are discerned.

  13. Information management and Process Improvement Using Data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    N. Ireland

    This paper describes a computer component manufacturing scenario which concentrates on the application of data mining techniques to improve information management and process improvement within a manufacturing scenario. The case- study involved, relates to an engineering component manufacturing company with a consortium of several plant outlets in various geographical locations world-wide. Currently, data, information and knowledge management, transparency and communication

  14. AVERAGING OF DISPERSION-MANAGED SOLITONS: EXISTENCE AND STABILITY

    E-print Network

    Zharnitsky, Vadim

    of the periodic nonlinear Schr¨odinger (NLS) equation: (i) a dynamical system for a Gaussian pulse and (ii fibers of op- posite dispersion are periodically concatenated into a line [1]. If the communication]. The chirped return-to-zero pulses are weakly broadened on the average due to transmission, and some post-transmission

  15. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    E-print Network

    Huang, Qihong; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-01-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state $w$ of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once $w$ reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if $w$ approaches a constant at $t\\rightarrow -\\infty$, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if $w$ decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the eme...

  16. Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilpatrick, F.A.

    1977-01-01

    On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

  17. Automatic Video Interpretation: A Novel Algorithm for Temporal Scenario Recognition

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Van-thinh Vu; François Brémond; Monique Thonnat

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a new scenario recognition algorithm for Video Interpretation. We represent a scenario model by specifying the characters involved in the scenario, the sub-scenarios com­ posing the scenario and the constraints combin­ ing the sub-scenarios. Various types of con­ straints can be used including spatio-temporal and logical constraints. In this paper, we focus on the performance of the

  18. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  19. 2-LAMA Architecture vs. BitTorrent Protocol in a Peer-to-Peer Scenario

    E-print Network

    López-Sánchez, Maite

    2-LAMA Architecture vs. BitTorrent Protocol in a Peer-to-Peer Scenario Jordi CAMPOS a&1 , Maite review our Multi-Agent System (MAS) architecture (2- LAMA) proposed to assist existing MAS. This architecture consists of two levels: the conventional MAS system and an additional meta-level in charge

  20. Assurance Analysis by Scenario-based UML-Modeling Konstantinos Kosmidis and Matthias Sand

    E-print Network

    Fey, Dietmar

    Assurance Analysis by Scenario-based UML-Modeling Konstantinos Kosmidis and Matthias Sand popularity and the large variety of existing tools we decided to use the Unified Modeling Language (UML) [1 as the (dynamic) semantics of the UML are not strictly enough specified to generally allow the design of models

  1. Nemo-enabled localized mobility support for internet access in automotive scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ignacio Soto; Carlos J. Bernardos; Maria Calderon; Albert Banchs; Arturo Azcorra

    2009-01-01

    This article surveys the major existing approaches and proposes a novel architecture to support mobile networks in network-based, localized mobility domains. Our architecture enables conventional terminals without mobility support to obtain connectivity either from fixed locations or mobile platforms (e.g., vehicles) and move between them, while keeping their ongoing sessions. This functionality offers broadband Internet access in automotive scenarios such

  2. Growth of Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes on fresh-cut cantaloupe under different temperature abuse scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Effective cold chain management is a critical component of food safety practice. In this study, we examined the impact of commonly encountered temperature abuse scenarios on the proliferation of Salmonela enterica and Listeria monocytogenes on fresh-cut cantaloupe. During one week of storage, Salmon...

  3. Complex decision making experimental platform (CODEM): A counter-insurgency scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniel Lafond; Michel B. DuCharme

    2011-01-01

    The complex decision making experimental platform (CODEM) is intended as a shareable research tool to stimulate multidisciplinary research on complex dynamic situation management and as an environment for training and testing cognitive readiness. The experimenter can set general parameters, configure the interface, specify the model, insert events and define the resources and capabilities of each player using the scenario development

  4. A technique for generating regional climate scenarios using a nearest-neighbor algorithm

    E-print Network

    Balaji, Rajagopalan

    Yates1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA Received 14 October 2002; revised 17 of ensembles of climate scenarios that can be used in integrated assessment and water resource management

  5. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

    2011-12-01

    Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

  6. Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

    2013-01-01

    The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

  7. Climate Scenarios: A Florida-Centric View A White Paper on Climate Scenarios for Florida

    E-print Network

    Climate Scenarios: A Florida-Centric View A White Paper on Climate Scenarios for Florida November for providing useful review comments on an earlier version of this white paper. The support of the cluster grant.2 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 21 SECTION 5 Impact of Aerosols (W. Landing) 24 5.1 Particle Pollution 24 5

  8. Coarsening Scenarios in Unstable Crystal Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagi, Sofia; Misbah, Chaouqi; Politi, Paolo

    2012-08-01

    Crystal surfaces may undergo thermodynamical as well as kinetic, out-of-equilibrium instabilities. We consider the case of mound and pyramid formation, a common phenomenon in crystal growth and a long-standing problem in the field of pattern formation and coarsening dynamics. We are finally able to attack the problem analytically and get rigorous results. Three dynamical scenarios are possible: perpetual coarsening, interrupted coarsening, and no coarsening. In the perpetual coarsening scenario, mound size increases in time as L˜tn, where the coarsening exponent is n=1/3 when faceting occurs, otherwise n=1/4.

  9. Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: case study of Tianjin, China.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Wei; van der Voet, Ester; Zhang, Yufeng; Huppes, Gjalt

    2009-02-15

    The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management have been highlighted in China, due to the continually increasing amount of MSW being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. Of particular interest is greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, aided by the Kyoto Mechanisms. China is an important case study for this global issue; however, an analysis of the entire life cycle of MSW management on GHG emissions is not available for China. This study evaluates the current and possible patterns of MSW management with regard to GHG emissions, using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on the Tianjin case. We assess the baseline scenario, reflecting the existing MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, five exploring waste treatment technology innovations and one exploring integrated MSW management, to quantitatively predict potentials of GHG mitigation for Tianjin. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the influence of landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency, recycling rate and methodological choice, especially allocation, on the outcomes. The results show GHG emissions from Tianjin's MSW management system amount to 467.34 Mg CO2 eq. per year, based on the treatment of MSW collected in the central districts in 2006, and the key issue is LFG released. The integrated MSW management scenario, combining different improvement options, shows the highest GHG mitigation potential. Given the limited financial support and the current waste management practice in Tianjin, LFG utilization scenario would be the preferred choice. The sensitivity analysis of recycling rate shows an approximately linear relation of inverse proportion between recycling rate and total GHG emissions. Kitchen waste composting makes a considerable contribution to total GHG emissions reduction. Allocation choices result in differences in total quantitative outcomes, but preference orders and contributions analysis are found to be robust, suggesting LCA can support decision making. PMID:19068268

  10. 24 CFR 200.24 - Existing projects.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ...Requirements for Existing Projects Miscellaneous Project Mortgage Insurance § 200.24 Existing projects. A mortgage financing the purchase or refinance of an existing rental housing project under section 207 of the Act, or for...

  11. Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon

    2013-02-15

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p(i) levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help the decision makers justify and/or adjust their waste management strategies based on their implicit knowledge and preferences. PMID:23313898

  12. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huttenlau, M.; Stötter, J.; Stiefelmeyer, H.

    2010-12-01

    Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory, vehicles, and individuals, a detailed geodatabase of the existing stock of elements and values was established on a single object level. Therefore, the localized and functional differentiated stock of elements was assessed monetarily on the basis of derived representative mean insurance values. Thus, well known difference factors between the analysis of the stock of elements and values on local and on regional scale could be reduced considerably. The spatial join of the results of the hazard analysis with the stock of elements and values enables the identification and quantification of the elements at risk and their corresponding damage potential. Thereupon, Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) were analysed under consideration of different vulnerability approaches which describe the individual element's specific susceptibility. This results in scenario-specific ranges of ESL rather than in single values. The exposure analysis of the general endangerment in Tyrol identifies (i) 105 330 individuals, (ii) 20 272 buildings and 50 157 dwellings with a corresponding damage potential of approx. EUR 20 bn. and (iii) 62 494 vehicles with a corresponding damage potential of EUR 1 bn. Depending on the individual extreme event scenarios, the ESL solely to buildings and inventory vary between EUR 0.9-1.3 bn. for the scenario with the least ESL and EUR 2.2-2.5 bn. for the most serious scenarios. The correlation of the private property losses to buildings and inventory with further direct tangible loss categories on the basis of investigation after the event in 2005, results in potential direct tangible ESL of up to EUR 7.6 bn. Apart from the specific study results a general finding shows that beside the further development of modelling capabilities and scenario concepts, the key to considerably decrease uncertainties of integral flood risk analyses is the development and implementation of more precise methods. These are to determine the stock of elements and values and to evaluate the vulnerability or susceptibility of affected structures to certain flood characteristics more dif

  13. Parametric Studies for Scenario Earthquakes: Site Effects and Differential Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panza, G. F.; Panza, G. F.; Romanelli, F.

    2001-12-01

    In presence of strong lateral heterogeneities, the generation of local surface waves and local resonance can give rise to a complicated pattern in the spatial groundshaking scenario. For any object of the built environment with dimensions greater than the characteristic length of the ground motion, different parts of its foundations can experience severe non-synchronous seismic input. In order to perform an accurate estimate of the site effects, and of differential motion, in realistic geometries, it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of reach of stochastic models. Synthetic signals, to be used as seismic input in a subsequent engineering analysis, e.g. for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or for the estimation of differential motion, can be produced at a very low cost/benefit ratio. We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation following the guidelines of the UNESCO IUGS IGCP Project 414 "Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas" and show the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the EC project "Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges" (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. >http://www.ictp.trieste.it/www_users/sand/projects.html

  14. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  15. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  16. Dynamic Networks: Rapid Assessment of Changing Scenarios

    E-print Network

    Sadeh, Norman M.

    >@atl.lmco.com, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories, Cherry Hill, New Jersey * enhanced representations such as CoreNetML--developed by Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology LaboratoriesDynamic Networks: Rapid Assessment of Changing Scenarios Nadya Belov , Michael K. Martin* , Jeff

  17. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis

    E-print Network

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) TruckH2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline 100 or 1500 kg

  18. Indistinguishable states II : Imperfect model scenarios

    E-print Network

    Smith, Leonard A

    Indistinguishable states II : Imperfect model scenarios Kevin Judd #3; Leonard Smith y July 16, 2001 Abstract A previous paper [4] considered the problem of estimating the true state of a system is that in any situation of state estimation or prediction of nonlinear systems it is essential to take even

  19. Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Rick Kazman; Gregory D. Abowd; Paul C. Clements

    1996-01-01

    Software architecture is one of the most important tools for designing and un- derstanding a system, whether that system is in preliminary design, active deployment, or maintenance. Scenarios are important tools for exercising an architecture in order to gain information about a system's fitness with respect to a set of desired quality attributes. This paper presents an experiential case study

  20. The Mobile Digital Contents Distribution Scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Enrico Furregoni; Andrea Rangone; Filippo Renga; Marta Valsecchi

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to draw the possible reference scenario for Mobile Digital Contents' distribution and to detect the main macro variables that will drive the evolution process of this market. This paper aims at giving a better understanding of the Mobile Digital Contents' state of the art and the level of interaction between Mobile and other digital

  1. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  2. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana [Department of Structural Engineering, University of Naples 'Federico II' Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples (Italy)

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  3. Mining modal scenarios from execution traces

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David Lo; Shahar Maoz; Siau-cheng Khoo

    2007-01-01

    Specification mining is a dynamic analysis process aimed at automatically inferring suggested specifications of a pro- gram from its execution traces. We describe a method, a framework, and a tool, for mining inter-object scenario- based specifications in the form of a UML2-compliant vari- ant of Damm and Harel's Live Sequence Charts (LSC), which extends the classical partial order semantics of

  4. Scenario-based software architecture reengineering

    Microsoft Academic Search

    PerOlof Bengtsson; Jan Bosch

    1998-01-01

    The paper presents a method for reengineering software architectures. The method explicitly addresses the quality attributes of the software architecture. Assessment of quality attributes is performed primarily using scenarios. Design transformations are done to improve quality attributes that do not satisfy the requirements. Assessment and design transformation can be performed for several iterations until all requirements are met. To illustrate

  5. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. Zuccaro; F. Cacace; R. J. S. Spence; P. J. Baxter

    2008-01-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by

  6. Modeling ambient background in complex detection scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Scott D. Kiff; Leon E. Smith; Kenneth D. Jarman

    2007-01-01

    Radiation detection instrumentation is being widely deployed as a countermeasure against the movement and use of radiological dispersal devices and nuclear weapons. Accurate ambient background modeling is critical for accurate simulation of detection scenarios of interest; these background source terms influence minimum detectable limits and are thus a significant factor in overall system performance. Described below are the methods used

  7. Scenario-Based E-Learning Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Kathleen; Colkey, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    As it was initially implemented, e-learning did little other than supply facts and information, offering limited opportunity for interactivity and problem-solving. Designers need to find ways to address past limitations and bring the engagement of classroom training to the web. One method that merits attention is scenario-based learning. The…

  8. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.

  9. Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

    SciTech Connect

    Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

  10. Selecting scenarios to assess exposure of surface waters to veterinary medicines in Europe.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Manuel K; Stamm, Christian; Fenner, Kathrin

    2007-07-01

    Registering a veterinary medicinal product (VMP) in the European Union requires assessing its potential to contaminate surface waters (SW) on a European scale. VMP are spread to land in manure or excreted during grazing and may enter SW through runoff, erosion, or leaching. Since the factors driving these processes vary largely across Europe, it is necessary to identify characteristic conditions, so-called scenarios, under which VMP enter SW. These scenarios may guide the parameterization of mechanistic fate models to predict environmental concentrations for environmental risk assessment. A number of such scenarios for pesticides and VMP have been developed rather pragmatically. Here, we describe how a geo-referenced European database of driving factors was used to divide the European environment into groups with similar conditions for SW contamination by VMP. Out of these groups, relevant exposure scenarios in Europe were selected by a simple scoring system. Comparing these to the existing scenarios showed that a number of situations are not well covered. The newly identified scenarios are primarily located in hilly areas of Central Europe and the Mediterranean, and in Eastern European plains with a continental climate. We recommend that they are included in the technical guidelines for higher-tier assessment of VMP. PMID:17695913

  11. Detecting implied scenarios in message sequence chart specifications

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sebastián Uchitel; Jeff Kramer; Jeff Magee

    2001-01-01

    Scenario-based specifications such as Message Sequence Charts (MSCs) are becoming increasingly popular as part of a requirements specification. Scenario describe how system components, the environment and users work concurrently and interact in order to provide system level functionality. Each scenario is a partial story which, when combined with other scenarios, should conform to provide a complete system description. However, although

  12. Parametric Studies For Scenario Earthquakes: Site Effects and Differential Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romanelli, F.; Panza, G. F.; Vaccari, F.

    In presence of strong lateral heterogeneities, the generation of local surface waves and local resonance can give rise to a complicated pattern in the spatial groundshaking sce- nario. For any object of the built environment with dimensions greater than the charac- teristic length of the ground motion, different parts of its foundations can experience severe non-synchronous seismic input. In order to perform an accurate estimate of the site effects, and of differential motion, in realistic geometries, it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of reach of stochastic models. We show the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the EC project "Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges" (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures.

  13. Paper waste - Recycling, incineration or landfilling? A review of existing life cycle assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Villanueva, A. [European Topic Centre on Resource and Waste Management, Hojbro Plads 4, DK-1200 Copenhagen K (Denmark)], E-mail: alejandro@villanueva.dk; Wenzel, H. [Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, Technical University of Denmark, Building 424, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

    2007-07-01

    A review of existing life cycle assessments (LCAs) on paper and cardboard waste has been undertaken. The objectives of the review were threefold. Firstly, to see whether a consistent message comes out of published LCA literature on optimum disposal or recycling solutions for this waste type. Such message has implications for current policy formulation on material recycling and disposal in the EU. Secondly, to identify key methodological issues of paper waste management LCAs, and enlighten the influence of such issues on the conclusions of the LCA studies. Thirdly, in light of the analysis made, to discuss whether it is at all valid to use the LCA methodology in its current development state to guide policy decisions on paper waste. A total of nine LCA studies containing altogether 73 scenarios were selected from a thorough, international literature search. The selected studies are LCAs including comparisons of different management options for waste paper. Despite claims of inconsistency, the LCAs reviewed illustrate the environmental benefits in recycling over incineration or landfill options, for paper and cardboard waste. This broad consensus was found despite differences in geographic location and definitions of the paper recycling/disposal systems studied. A systematic exploration of the LCA studies showed, however, important methodological pitfalls and sources of error, mainly concerning differences in the definition of the system boundaries. Fifteen key assumptions were identified that cover the three paper cycle system areas: raw materials and forestry, paper production, and disposal/recovery. It was found that the outcome of the individual LCA studies largely depended on the choices made in some of these assumptions, most specifically the ones concerning energy use and generation, and forestry.

  14. Decision support systems for flood scenario elicitation and hazard mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pistocchi, Alberto

    2013-04-01

    Improved management of flood hazards in mountain catchments entails the investigation of large woody debris transport, their impact in terms of bridge clogging, and the combined effect of these phenomena with high flows in mountain rivers. Moreover, the effects of woody debris may combine with those of possible levee failure in the valley bottoms. The contribution reviews the state of the art of models and methods for the characterization of both aspects, and illustrates a blueprint of a decision support system where information on woody debris recruitment, transport capacity of the stream network, cloggability of hydraulic structures and levees are combined with hydrological information to identify the most appropriate scenarios one should consider for precautionary and realistic flood hazard assessment. The decision support system is exemplified with reference to the case study of South Tyrol, Italy.

  15. Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

  16. Realization of inverse Kibble-Zurek scenario with trapped Bose gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yukalov, V. I.; Novikov, A. N.; Bagnato, V. S.

    2015-07-01

    We show that there exists the inverse Kibble-Zurek scenario, when we start with an equilibrium system with broken symmetry and, by imposing perturbations, transform it to a strongly nonequilibrium symmetric state through the sequence of states with spontaneously arising topological defects. We demonstrate the inverse Kibble-Zurek scenario both experimentally, by perturbing the Bose-Einstein condensate of trapped 87Rb atoms, and also by accomplishing numerical simulations for the same setup as in the experiment, the experimental and numerical results being in good agreement with each other.

  17. Interim Storage of Plutonium in Existing Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Woodsmall, T.D.

    1999-05-10

    'In this era of nuclear weapons disarmament and nonproliferation treaties, among many problems being faced by the Department of Energy is the safe disposal of plutonium. There is a large stockpile of plutonium at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Center and it remains politically and environmentally strategic to relocate the inventory closer to a processing facility. Savannah River Site has been chosen as the final storage location, and the Actinide Packaging and Storage Facility (APSF) is currently under construction for this purpose. With the ability of APSF to receive Rocky Flats material an estimated ten years away, DOE has decided to use the existing reactor building in K-Area of SRS as temporary storage to accelerate the removal of plutonium from Rocky Flats. There are enormous cost savings to the government that serve as incentive to start this removal as soon as possible, and the KAMS project is scheduled to receive the first shipment of plutonium in January 2000. The reactor building in K-Area was chosen for its hardened structure and upgraded seismic qualification, both resulting from an effort to restart the reactor in 1991. The KAMS project has faced unique challenges from Authorization Basis and Safety Analysis perspectives. Although modifying a reactor building from a production facility to a storage shelter is not technically difficult, the nature of plutonium has caused design and safety analysis engineers to make certain that the design of systems, structures and components included will protect the public, SRS workers, and the environment. A basic overview of the KAMS project follows. Plutonium will be measured and loaded into DOT Type-B shipping packages at Rocky Flats. The packages are 35-gallon stainless steel drums with multiple internal containment boundaries. DOE transportation vehicles will be used to ship the drums to the KAMS facility at SRS. They will then be unloaded, stacked and stored in specific locations throughout the reactor building. The storage life is projected to be ten years to allow the preparation of APSF. DOE has stipulated that there be no credible release during storage, since there are no design features in place to mitigate a release of plutonium (i.e. HEPA filters, facility containment boundaries, etc.). This mandate has presented most of the significant challenges to the safety analysis team. The shipping packages are designed to withstand certain accidents and conditions, but in order to take credit for these the storage environment must be strictly controlled. Damages to the packages from exposure to fire, dropping, crushing and other impact accidents have been analyzed, and appropriate preventative design features have been incorporated. Other efforts include the extension of the shipping life (roughly two years) to a suitable storage life of ten years. These issues include the effects of internal pressure increases, seal degradation and the presence of impurities. A process known as the Container Qualification Program has been conducted to address these issues. The KAMS project will be ready to receive the first shipment from Rocky Flats in January 2000. No credible design basis scenarios resulting in the release of plutonium exist. This work has been useful in the effort to provide a safer disposition of plutonium, but also the lessons learned and techniques established by the team will help with the analysis of future facility modifications.'

  18. Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eric P. Salathé Jr; Philip W. Mote; Matthew W. Wiley

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews methods that have been used to evaluate global climate simulations and to downscale global climate scenarios for the assessment of climate impacts on hydrologic systems in the Pacific Northwest, USA. The approach described has been developed to facilitate integrated assessment research in support of regional resource management. Global climate model scenarios are evaluated and selected based on

  19. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are 97% lower compared to other anthropogenic sources like the public transport sector. The innovative sanitation scenarios were found to cause less environmental burden in terms of energy and GHGs. Nevertheless, to ensure a positive impact of these treatment systems, an optimum biogas reuse (for the production of electricity and heat), the source separation of human excreta (to disburden the wastewater treatment processes) should be introduced to reduce their GHG emissions. Keywords: Carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, methane, wastewater treatment technologies.

  20. Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo

    2014-05-01

    Most of the challenges in designing land use policies that address sustainability issues are inherent to the concept of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). Researchers, farmers and mainly policy makers need to evaluate the impact of new and existing policies for soil protection. In Europe, farmers commit themselves, for a minimum period of at least five years, to adopt environmentally-friendly farming techniques that undergone legal obligations. On the other hand, farmers receive payments that provide compensation for additional costs and income foregone resulting from applying those environmentally friendly farming practices in line with the stipulations of agri-environment contracts. In this context we prospect scenarios on soil erosion variations in a detailed case study after the application of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). The study area is located in the South part of Sicily. In a district area of 11,588 ha, 35.5 % is devoted to vineyard cultivation, 32.2 % is arable land and only 11.1 % cultivated to olive grow. 2416 ha are urbanized areas and other less important crops. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in soil organic carbon stocks after AEM adoption, following criteria based on Conteh (1999) also applied in several research studies. For the purpose of comparison, the members of a paired site were selected to be similar with respect to the type of soil, slope, elevation, and drainage, but not to AEM. The comparisons were made between adjacent patches of land with different AEM, and a known history of land use and management. 100 paired sites (two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot (600 soil samples). The rainfall erosivity (R) factor (Mj mm ha-1 hour-1 year-1) was estimated with the formula specifically proposed for Sicily by Ferro and coauthors in 1999. The soil erodibility factor (K, in tons hour MJ-1 mm-1) was mapped on the base of soil texture and soil organic carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference—Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147

  1. Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

    2011-04-01

    Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.

  2. FMDP reactor alternative summary report. Volume 1 - existing LWR alternative

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, S.R.; Bevard, B.B. [and others

    1996-10-07

    Significant quantities of weapons-usable fissile materials [primarily plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)] are becoming surplus to national defense needs in both the United States and Russia. These stocks of fissile materials pose significant dangers to national and international security. The dangers exist not only in the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons but also in the potential for environmental, safety, and health (ES&H) consequences if surplus fissile materials are not properly managed. This document summarizes the results of analysis concerned with existing light water reactor plutonium disposition alternatives.

  3. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  4. Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sheykhi, Ahmad, E-mail: sheykhi@mail.uk.ac.ir [Department of Physics, Shahid Bahonar University, P.O. Box 76175, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of)] [Department of Physics, Shahid Bahonar University, P.O. Box 76175, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2009-05-15

    We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

  5. Modeling Ambient Background in Complex Detection Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kiff, Scott D.; Smith, Leon E.; Jarman, Kenneth D.

    2008-08-01

    Radiation detection instrumentation is being widely deployed as a countermeasure against the movement and use of radiological dispersal devices and nuclear weapons. Accurate ambient background modeling is critical for accurate simulation of detection scenarios of interest; these background source terms influence minimum detectable limits and are thus a significant factor in overall system performance. Described below are the methods used to characterize ambient background source terms in the at-sea maritime cargo container environment, how statistical distributions on those source terms are defined, and how the resulting radiation fields are calibrated using available measurement data from aboard large ocean-going ships. Although the maritime environment is the demonstration case study, these methods are broadly applicable to modeling of all complex detection scenarios.

  6. Quintom scenario with mixed kinetic terms

    SciTech Connect

    Saridakis, Emmanuel N. [College of Mathematics and Physics, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Weller, Joel M. [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2010-06-15

    We examine an extension of the quintom scenario of dark energy, in which a canonical scalar field and a phantom field are coupled through a kinetic interaction. We perform a phase-space analysis and show that the kinetic coupling gives rise to novel cosmological behavior. In particular, we obtain both quintessence-like and phantomlike late-time solutions, as well as solutions that cross the phantom divide during the evolution of the Universe.

  7. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Grigory Volovik; L. D. Landau

    2008-01-01

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally 4-dimensional; Universe is naturally flat; cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; underlying physics is based

  8. 1906 Earthquake Scenario: San Francisco Bay Area

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This map shows estimated Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values for the City of San Francisco and the eight counties of the Greater Bay Area, in a scenario based on the 1906 earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The 430 kilometers of fault rupture included several segments during one massive earthquake. Links are supplied to more detailed maps of the cities of Rohnert Park, Pittsburg, Antioch, San Francisco, and Palo Alto.

  9. Scenarios for a clean energy future

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marilyn A. Brown; Mark D. Levine; Walter Short; Jonathan G. Koomey

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of a study—Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future—that assess how energy-efficient and clean energy technologies can address key energy and environmental challenges facing the US. A particular focus of this study is the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of different public policies and programs. Hundreds of technologies and approximately 50 policies are analyzed. The study

  10. The DYMO Routing Protocol in VANET Scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Christoph Sommer; Falko Dressler

    2007-01-01

    Abstract—Coupling Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) with wired networks such as the Internet via access points creates a difficult mix,of highly mobile nodes and,a static infrastructure. In order to evaluate the performance of typical ad hoc routing protocols—in particular, we used Dynamic MANET On Demand (DYMO)—in such VANET scenarios, we combined microsimulation of road traffic and event-driven network simu- lation.

  11. The Cosmological Slingshot Scenario: Myths and Facts

    E-print Network

    Germani, Cristiano; Kehagias, Alex

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we clarify two important issues regarding the Cosmological Slingshot Scenario, namely the choice of frame and the creation of primordial fluctuations. In particular, we show that the Einstein frame represents a non-trivial bouncing cosmology. Regarding the calculation of the primordial perturbations, we identify their vacuum state and elucidate their evolution from the quantum to the classical regimes. Finally, we calculate the exact power spectrum of primordial perturbations showing its compatibility with current data.

  12. Steady state advanced scenarios at ASDEX Upgrade

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A C C Sips; R Arslanbekov; C Atanasiu; W Becker; G Becker; K Behler; K Behringer; A Bergmann; R Bilato; D Bolshukhin; K Borrass; B Braams; M Brambilla; F Braun; A Buhler; G Conway; D Coster; R Drube; R Dux; S Egorov; T Eich; K Engelhardt; H-U Fahrbach; U Fantz; H Faugel; M Foley; K B Fournier; P Franzen; J C Fuchs; J Gafert; G Gantenbein; O Gehre; A Geier; J Gernhardt; O Gruber; A Gude; S Günter; G Haas; D Hartmann; B Heger; B Heinemann; A Herrmann; J Hobirk; F Hofmeister; H Hohenöcker; L Horton; V Igochine; D Jacobi; M Jakobi; F Jenko; A Kallenbach; O Kardaun; M Kaufmann; A Keller; A Kendl; J-W Kim; K Kirov; R Kochergov; H Kollotzek; W Kraus; K Krieger; B Kurzan; P T Lang; P Lauber; M Laux; F Leuterer; A Lohs; A Lorenz; C Maggi; H Maier; K Mank; M-E Manso; M Maraschek; K F Mast; P McCarthy; D Meisel; H Meister; F Meo; R Merkel; D Merkl; V Mertens; F Monaco; A Mück; H W Müller; M Münich; H Murmann; Y-S Na; G Neu; R Neu; J Neuhauser; J-M Noterdaeme; I Nunes; G Pautasso; A G Peeters; G Pereverzev; S Pinches; E Poli; M Proschek; R Pugno; E Quigley; G Raupp; T Ribeiro; R Riedl; S Riondato; V Rohde; J Roth; F Ryter; S Saarelma; W Sandmann; S Schade; H-B Schilling; W Schneider; G Schramm; S Schweizer; B Scott; U Seidel; F Serra; S Sesnic; C Sihler; A Silva; E Speth; A Stäbler; K-H Steuer; J Stober; B Streibl; E Strumberger; W Suttrop; A Tabasso; A Tanga; G Tardini; C Tichmann; W Treutterer; M Troppmann; P Varela; O Vollmer; D Wagner; U Wenzel; F Wesner; R Wolf; E Wolfrum; E Würsching; Q Yu; D Zasche; T Zehetbauer; H-P Zehrfeld; H Zohm

    2002-01-01

    Recent experiments at ASDEX Upgrade have achieved advanced scenarios with high ?N (>3) and confinement enhancement over ITER98(y, 2) scaling, HH98y2 = 1.1–1.5, in steady state. These discharges have been obtained in a modified divertor configuration for ASDEX Upgrade, allowing operation at higher triangularity, and with a changed neutral beam injection (NBI) system, for a more tangential, off-axis beam deposition.

  13. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  14. GRB Precursors in the Fallback Collapsar Scenario

    E-print Network

    Wang, X Y; Wang, Xiang-Yu; Meszaros, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Precursor emission has been observed in a non-negligible fraction of gamma-ray bursts, the time gap between the precursor and the main burst extending up to hundreds of seconds in some cases, such as in GRB041219A, GRB050820A and GRB060124. We have investigated the maximum possible time gaps arising from the jet propagation inside the progenitor star, in models which assume that the precursor is produced by the jet bow shock or the cocoon breaking out of the progenitor. Due to the pressure drop ahead of the jet head after it reaches the stellar surface, a rarefaction wave propagates back into the jet at the sound speed, which re-accelerates the jet to a relativistic velocity and therefore limits the gap period to within about ten seconds. This scenario therefore cannot explain gaps which are hundreds of seconds long. Instead, we ascribe such long time gaps to the behavior of the central engine, and suggest a fallback collapsar scenario for these bursts. In this scenario, the precursor is produced by a weak je...

  15. Assessing hypothetical scenario methodology in genetic susceptibility testing analog studies: a quantitative review.

    PubMed

    Persky, Susan; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Condit, Celeste M; McBride, Colleen M

    2007-11-01

    Hypothetical scenario methodology is commonly employed in the study of genetic susceptibility testing uptake estimation. The methodology, however, has not been rigorously assessed and sizeable gaps exist between estimated and actual uptake for tests that have recently become available. This quantitative review explores the effect of several theoretically based factors on genetic test uptake accuracy among a sample of 38 articles. These factors include verbal immediacy and temporal proximity of test scenarios, method of decision assessment, content of testing detail provided, processing demand required, and study features related to administration and sample. A number of assessed factors influenced uptake accuracy. Among these, temporal proximity of the genetic susceptibility test appeared to be the most consistent. There was also some evidence for effects of verbal immediacy and decision-assessment method on interest in testing. We recommend strategies for increasing accuracy using hypothetical scenario methodology to examine genetic susceptibility test uptake prediction. PMID:18007141

  16. Application Scenarios of Ontology-Driven

    E-print Network

    Hochreiter, Sepp

    , in use in the domains of road traffic man- agement or air traffic control, operate in geographically wide. Large-scale control systems, as encountered in the domain of road traffic management, typically deal, Context Awareness, Road Traffic Management Introduction Large-scale control systems, as, for example

  17. Quasiminimal excellent classes Chains, existence, and definability

    E-print Network

    Kirby, Jonathan

    Quasiminimal excellent classes Chains, existence, and definability Conclusions On Quasiminimal Excellent Classes Jonathan Kirby University of Oxford 5th October, 2007 Jonathan Kirby Definability of Quasiminimal Excellent Classes #12;Quasiminimal excellent classes Chains, existence, and definability

  18. Summary of Concrete Overlays Existing concrete pavement

    E-print Network

    Summary of Concrete Overlays Existing concrete pavement with surface distresses Prepared surface Monolithic pavement with new concrete surface Existing asphalt pavement with surface distresses Milled and cleaned surface New 2­5 in. (5.1­12.7 cm) bonded concrete overlay with square panels Existing composite

  19. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non-linear threshold responses, can help in communicating potential stability concerns from a political/social/economic/security perspective. This research illustrates scenario improvements that approach critical climate uncertainties from a risk assessment perspective, without losing traceability of related scientific data.

  20. The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

    1988-07-01

    In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a series of statements on (i) possible preventive, compensatory and substitution strategies and (ii) an assessment of current knowledge gaps and deficiencies, with recommendations for future areas of research.

  1. Estimation of the Transportation Risks for the Spent Fuel in Korea for Various Transportation Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Jongtae, Jeong; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Yuseong, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-07-01

    According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. From the results of this study, we found that these four transportation scenarios for spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future. (authors)

  2. Benefit cost scenarios of potential oral rabies vaccination for skunks in California.

    PubMed

    Shwiff, Stephanie A; Sterner, Ray T; Hale, Robert; Jay, Michele T; Sun, Ben; Slate, Dennis

    2009-01-01

    Scenario-based analyses were computed for benefits and costs linked with hypothetical oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns to contain or eliminate skunk-variant rabies in skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in California, USA. Scenario 1 assumed baiting eight zones (43,388 km(2) total) that comprised 73% of known skunk rabies locations in the state. Scenario 2 also assumed baiting these eight zones, but further assumed that added benefits would result from preventing the spread of skunk-variant rabies into Los Angeles County, USA. Scenarios assumed a fixed bait cost ($1.24 each) but varied campaigns (one, two and three annual ORV applications), densities of baits (37.5/km(2), 75/km(2) and 150/km(2)), levels of prevention (50%, 75%, and 100%), and contingency expenditures if rabies recurred (20%, 40%, and 60% of campaign costs). Prorating potential annual benefits during a 12-yr time horizon yielded benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) between 0.16 and 2.91 and between 0.34 and 6.35 for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Economic issues relevant to potentially managing skunk-variant rabies with ORV are discussed. PMID:19204355

  3. A GIS based watershed information system for water resources management and planning in semi-arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

    2015-04-01

    The overall objective of this work is the development of an Information System which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of water management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making in semi-arid areas. An integrated modeling system has been developed and applied to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The modeling system, developed in the framework of "HYDROMENTOR" research project, is based on a GIS modelling approach which uses remote sensing data and includes coupled models for the simulation of surface water and groundwater resources, the operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and the estimation of water demands at several spatial scales. Lake Karla basin was the region where the system was tested but the methodology may be the basis for future analysis elsewhere. ?wo (2) base and three (3) management scenarios were investigated. In total, eight (8) water management scenarios were evaluated: i) Base scenario without operation of the reservoir and the designed Lake Karla district irrigation network (actual situation) • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation ii) Base scenario including the operation of the reservoir and the Lake Karla district irrigation network • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is very large. However, the operation of the reservoir and the cooperative Lake Karla district irrigation network coupled with water demand management measures, like reduction of water distribution system losses and alteration of irrigation methods, could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by the research project "Hydromentor" funded by the Greek General Secretariat of Research and Technology in the framework of the E.U. co-funded National Action "Cooperation"

  4. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr?1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr?1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  5. GRB Precursors in the Fallback Collapsar Scenario

    E-print Network

    Xiang-Yu Wang; Peter Meszaros

    2007-08-27

    Precursor emission has been observed in a non-negligible fraction of gamma-ray bursts.The time gap between the precursor and the main burst extends in some case up to hundreds of seconds, such as in GRB041219A, GRB050820A and GRB060124. Both the origin of the precursor and the large value of the time gap are controversial. Here we investigate the maximum possible time gaps arising from the jet propagation inside the progenitor star, in models which assume that the precursor is produced by the jet bow shock or the cocoon breaking out of the progenitor. Due to the pressure drop ahead of the jet head after it reaches the stellar surface, a rarefaction wave propagates back into the jet at the sound speed, which re-accelerates the jet to a relativistic velocity and therefore limits the gap period to within about ten seconds. This scenario therefore cannot explain gaps which are hundreds of seconds long. Instead, we ascribe such long time gaps to the behavior of the central engine, and suggest a fallback collapsar scenario for these bursts. In this scenario, the precursor is produced by a weak jet formed during the initial core collapse, possibly related to MHD processes associated with a short-lived proto-neutron star, while the main burst is produced by a stronger jet fed by fallback accretion onto the black hole resulting from the collapse of the neutron star. We have examined the propagation times of the weak precursor jet through the stellar progenitor. We find that the initial weak jet can break out of the progenitor in a time less than ten seconds (a typical precursor duration) provided that it has a moderately high relativistic Lorentz factor \\Gamma>=10 (abridged).

  6. TMJ imaging by CBCT: Current scenario

    PubMed Central

    Krishnamoorthy, Bhuvana; Mamatha, NS; Kumar, Vinod AR

    2013-01-01

    Radiographic examination forms an integral component of the clinical assessment routine in patients with temporomandibular joint disorders (TMJ). There are several imaging modalities to visualize the TMJ. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a developing technique that is being increasingly used in dentomaxillofacial imaging due to its relatively low-dose high-spatial-resolution characteristics. Research in TMJ imaging has been greatly inspired by the advent of CBCT. In this paper we aim to discuss the present scenario of the role of CBCT in TMJ imaging. PMID:23662265

  7. Scenario one for the European Hadron Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Colton, E.P.

    1985-01-01

    Scenario one consists of an H linac, a 4 GeV-50 Hz booster, a 4 GeV accumulator, a 30 GeV-12.5 Hz main ring synchrotron, and a 30 GeV storage ring (stretcher). In this report, the author presents designs for both synchrotrons but do not discuss the accumulator or stretcher rings. A cost analysis was performed for different final linac energies - the minimum cost occurs in the energy range of 1.0 to 1.2 GeV. Some detail is included on booster injection, rf acceleration, rf requirements, and on longitudinal stability.

  8. Morphology and Galactic Distribution of PNe: a new scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. Garcia-Segura; J. Franco; J. A. Lopez; N. Langer; M. F. Rocyczca

    2000-01-01

    We discuss an scenario which addresses the morphology and galactic distribut ion of Planetary Nebulae. This scenario is based in MHD computations of interacting winds which include the effects of stellar rotation and stellar magnetic field.

  9. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63...Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of...

  10. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  11. OPTIMIZING THE SCENARIO POSITIONS FOR ROBUST RADIATION THERAPY TREATMENT PLANNING

    E-print Network

    Forsgren, Anders

    OPTIMIZING THE SCENARIO POSITIONS FOR ROBUST RADIATION THERAPY TREATMENT PLANNING Albin FREDRIKSSON Royal Institute of Technology October 10, 2012 Abstract Complex external beam radiation therapy scenario positions. 1. Introduction In external beam radiation therapy, misalignment of the patient

  12. Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welling, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

  13. Implementation of abnormal operation scenarios into the DWPF process plant simulator

    SciTech Connect

    Ozkardesh, K.

    1994-04-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) will be used by the Department of Energy to process high level liquid radioactive waste into a stable and manageable solid form. The facility requires a performance-based operator training program to satisfy DOE orders and guidelines. The control room operator training portion of this program is conducted on the DWPF Process Plant Simulator and is divided into normal and abnormal operations training. Normal operations training reflects the normal manual and automatic operations of the process. Abnormal operations training initiates equipment failures and process upsets in order to train the operators on transient operation and safe shutdown of a specific DWPF process. Abnormal operations g requires the capability of the DWPF Process Plant Simulator to initiate and manage predefined malfunction scenarios as needed by the training instructors. This paper will discuss the implementation of abnormal operation scenarios capability into the DWPF Process Plant Simulator.

  14. Memory Enhanced PSO-Based Optimization Approach for Smart Antennas Control in Complex Interference Scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Manuel Benedetti; Renzo Azaro; Andrea Massa

    2008-01-01

    In the framework of control methods for adaptive phased-arrays, this paper deals with complex communication scenarios by considering a memory-enhanced cooperative algorithm. Compared to existing approaches where far-field interferences are taken into account, the proposed analysis considers a more realistic situation where the jamming sources are located either in the near-field or in the far-field of the receiving antenna. In

  15. A cervical spine model to predict injury scenarios and clinical instability

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Abraham Tchako; Ali Sadegh

    2009-01-01

    A complete and detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the human cervical spine (C1–C7), including soft and hard tissues, was created using a digitized geometric measurement tool. The model was validated against existing experimental studies in flexion, extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation. The aims of this study were to use the model to simulate the mechanisms of injury scenarios,

  16. Cement kiln dust management regulatory and technical update

    SciTech Connect

    Riney, S.M.; Yonley, C. [Schreiber, Grana and Yonley, Inc., Fenton, MO (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) currently excludes cement kiln dust (CKD) from regulation under Subtitle C. The exclusion, commonly referred to as the Bevill Amendment, has been pending, awaiting completion of a report to Congress (RTC) which is required under RCRA. Then the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Administrator must either to promulgate regulations under Subtitle C or determine that regulations are unwarranted. Five management scenarios were outlined in the December 1993 RTC. Three of the scenarios incorporate Subtitle C regulations to some degree. The other two suggest CKD management remain exempt from Subtitle C, with an emphasis on alternatives for recycling and reuse of the CKD material. A review of the overall report indicates that there may neither be sufficient cause nor factual basis for requiring Subtitle C regulation of CKD. The conclusions derived from data do not consider the necessary operating parameters and variables involved in the manufacture of CKD. Additional input is necessary in order for the RTC to provide information relevant to the generation and characteristics of CKD, as well as, the existing regulatory controls available for CKD management.

  17. Environmental Risk Assessment for Veterinary Medicinal Products Part 4. Exposure assessment scenarios

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Montforts MHMM; Tarazona Lafarga JV

    2007-01-01

    Residues of veterinary medicinal products reach the environment through\\u000aspreading of slurry on agricultural soil. In this report animal\\u000ahusbandry, slurry handling and environmental conditions throughout Europe\\u000aare considered in order to define realistic worst case scenarios, in\\u000aconjunction with environmental distribution models. Given the\\u000avariability in manure management a straightforward approach for the\\u000amanure model was selected. Realistic worst

  18. Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: the Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.

    PubMed

    Christensen, Jette; El Allaki, Farouk; Vallières, André

    2014-05-01

    Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances - the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes. Our objective was to propose a systematic approach to present changes to an existing scenario tree model for freedom from disease. We used the example of how we adapted the deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza scenario tree model published in 2011 to a stochastic scenario tree model where the definition of sub-populations and the estimation of probability of introduction of the pathogen were modified. We found that the standardized approach by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) with modifications provided a systematic approach to make and present changes to an existing scenario tree model. We believe that the new 2013 CanNAISS scenario tree model is a better model than the 2011 model because the 2013 model included more surveillance data. In particular, the new data on Notifiable Avian Influenza in Canada from the last 5 years were used to improve input parameters and model structure. PMID:24588975

  19. Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California

    E-print Network

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    Questioning Inevitability of Energy Pathways: Alternative Energy Scenarios for California May 21.6.4 Alternative Scenario 3 ­ Patriotic Energy Independence Section 3: Developing the Scenario Model and Examining, 2002 by Rebecca Ghanadan rebeccag@socrates.berkeley.edu The Energy and Resources Group University

  20. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Rebecca Ghanadan; Jonathan G. Koomey

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives

  1. Scenario-Based User's Needs Discovery for Creative Product Design

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zhi-jun Wu; Liang-zhi Li; Cheng-ai Na

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present systemic creative product design methods based on user's life scenarios. Based on the nature of scenario and user's needs, combining with design principles and modeling activities in creative design process, this paper presented a solution to discovery user's needs from scenarios, and transfer these needs to structures, outlined a creative design model

  2. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  3. Carbon dioxide emission scenarios: limitations of the fossil fuel resource

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Christopher Vernon; Erica Thompson; Sarah Cornell

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in large part the result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Scenario analysis is commonly used to generate projections of future carbon dioxide emissions, the resulting atmospheric concentrations and climate impact. In most scenario modelling published to date, carbon dioxide emission scenarios are based on demand-side (socioeconomic and technology)

  4. Scenarios for future use of hydrogen and fuel cells

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Bent Sørensen

    Scenarios for a transition to a hydrogen society are constructed. The scenarios are detailed on both a geographical scale (500m by 500m grid) and a time scale (hourly), for Denmark. The physical basis for the scenarios is the exploitation of renewable energy resources already in progress in Denmark. Hydrogen is proposed as a convenient energy carrier due to its versatility

  5. High-resolution climate change simulations within EURO-CORDEX: Projected changes in the RCP2.6 scenario simulations in comparison to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teichmann, Claas; Eggert, Bastian; Haensler, Andreas; Kriegsmann, Arne; Marien, Lennart; Petersen, Juliane; Pfeifer, Susanne; Preuschmann, Swantje; Raub, Thomas; Rechid, Diana; Remke, Thomas; Sieck, Kevin; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Within the EURO-CORDEX initiative a first set of downscaled climate change projections at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km has been completed for the new emission scenarios. Up to now the majority of the simulations follow the emission pathways of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and only a smaller number of simulations downscaling the RCP2.6 scenario exists. Also, the analysis in so far published papers on the projections of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is focused on the higher emission scenarios. However, for policy makers it is of special importance to identify the magnitude of future climate change that would already occur under a low emission scenario like the RCP2.6 scenario. In this study, we therefore want to present the results of the new high resolution climate change projections for European impact research within the WCRP EURO-CORDEX initiative with focus on RCP2.6 simulations. We will compare the results of the RCP2.6 simulations with respect to the other two scenarios. Our analysis will highlight the differences in large scale patterns of projected changes in temperature and precipitation as well as the statistical distribution of projected changes for selected regions in Europe.

  6. 76 FR 4244 - Regulation and Enforcement; Renewable Energy Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities on the Outer...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-25

    ...OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Ocean Energy Management 30 CFR Part 285 [Docket...1010-AD71 Regulation and Enforcement; Renewable Energy Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities...final rule to amend BOEMRE's renewable energy regulatory provisions that...

  7. 5 CFR 293.509 - Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL RECORDS Employee Medical File System Records § 293.509 Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment. The requirements of §...

  8. 5 CFR 293.509 - Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL RECORDS Employee Medical File System Records § 293.509 Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment. The requirements of §...

  9. 5 CFR 293.509 - Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL RECORDS Employee Medical File System Records § 293.509 Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment. The requirements of §...

  10. 5 CFR 293.509 - Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL RECORDS Employee Medical File System Records § 293.509 Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment. The requirements of §...

  11. 5 CFR 293.509 - Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL RECORDS Employee Medical File System Records § 293.509 Use of existing Employee Medical Folders upon transfer or reemployment. The requirements of §...

  12. AIM: A Home-Owner Usable Energy Calculator for Existing Residential Homes 

    E-print Network

    Marshall, K.; Moss, M.; Malhotra, M.; Liu, B.; Culp, C.; Haberl, J.; Herbert, C.

    2009-01-01

    AIM: A HOME-OWNER USABLE ENERGY CALCULATOR FOR EXISTING RESIDENTIAL HOMES Kyle Marshall Matt Moss Mini Malhotra Manager of Software Development Software Developer Research Assistant Energy Systems Laboratory College Station, TX USA...

  13. QUANTITATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT: CONCEPTS, TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS*

    E-print Network

    Embrechts, Paul

    of dependencies and stress scenarios · Integrated Risk Management c 2004 (A. Dias and P. Embrechts) 7 #12;THEQUANTITATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT: CONCEPTS, TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS* Paul Embrechts Department of Mathematics ETH Zurich www.math.ethz.ch/~embrechts #12;QUANTITATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT: CONCEPTS, TECHNIQUES

  14. Mesoscale disturbances and orographic precipitation distribution: Three special case scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, Heather Dawn

    Flow patterns and precipitation distribution in the vicinity of mountains are often attributed to whether the flow is in a blocked or unblocked regime, which, in turn, is dictated by the wind speed and static stability far upstream of the mountain and the mountain height. Herein, the notion that mesoscale disturbances immediately upstream of mountains and/or terrain inhomogeneities could alter the flow patterns significantly, resulting in a precipitation distribution that does not fit typical patterns for blocked vs. unblocked flows, was studied via consideration of specific case studies and idealized numerical experiments. The first scenario considered that of an orographically trapped stable layer upstream of a mountain. A series of quasi-idealized simulations suggests that flow patterns and precipitation distribution in the vicinity of a mountain are affected not only by the presence of such a layer, but by the strength of the capping inversion of this layer. Part two of this research investigated the effects of a pre-existing convective system upstream of a mountain for conditionally unstable flow, where a pre-existing convective system is defined as one that is triggered by some mechanism other than lifting by the mountain in question. Idealized numerical experiments with differing upstream wind speeds reveal that if the flow was in a blocked regime, the introduction of a pre-existing precipitation system had little effect on the precipitation distribution and flow patterns in the vicinity of the mountain. If the flow was in an unblocked regime, the introduction of a pre-existing precipitation system was associated with flow reversal upstream of the mountain and an upstream shift of the locus of maximum precipitation. The last part of the thesis considered the effects of terrain inhomogeneities on precipitation distribution via full-physics simulations of two heavy precipitation events along the western face of the Sierra Nevada mountains. Of the terrain features that were tested, the greatest sensitivity in the precipitation distribution was to directional changes in slope orientation along the upstream face of the range. In sensitivity tests where these undulations were removed, isolated maxima along the upslope that were present in the corresponding reference simulations were either reduced or non-existant. The overriding conclusion from this thesis is that although the wind speed and static stability far upstream of a mountain are important, mesoscale flow phenomena immediately upstream of a mountain can significantly change the flow and precipitation patterns.

  15. Life cycle assessment: Existing building retrofit versus replacement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darabi, Nura

    The embodied energy in building materials constitutes a large part of the total energy required for any building (Thormark 2001, 429). In working to make buildings more energy efficient this needs to be considered. Integrating considerations about life cycle assessment for buildings and materials is one promising way to reduce the amount of energy consumption being used within the building sector and the environmental impacts associated with that energy. A life cycle assessment (LCA) model can be utilized to help evaluate the embodied energy in building materials in comparison to the buildings operational energy. This thesis takes into consideration the potential life cycle reductions in energy and CO2 emissions that can be made through an energy retrofit of an existing building verses demolition and replacement with a new energy efficient building. A 95,000 square foot institutional building built in the 1960`s was used as a case study for a building LCA, along with a calibrated energy model of the existing building created as part of a previous Masters of Building Science thesis. The chosen case study building was compared to 10 possible improvement options of either energy retrofit or replacement of the existing building with a higher energy performing building in order to see the life cycle relationship between embodied energy, operational energy, and C02 emissions. As a result of completing the LCA, it is shown under which scenarios building retrofit saves more energy over the lifespan of the building than replacement with new construction. It was calculated that energy retrofit of the chosen existing institutional building would reduce the amount of energy and C02 emissions associated with that building over its life span.

  16. Water Management Strategies against Water Shortage in the Alps (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jong, C.

    2009-12-01

    In the European Alps water has been perceived as ubiquitous and not the subject of management. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures have changed demand and supply relations rapidly and over the last 10 years, water problems have increasingly become apparent over temporal and spatial hotspots. Stakeholders in the Alpine Space have been confronted with water management problems in agriculture, tourism and hydropower to such an extent that they approached scientists to create solution strategies based on adaptation and mitigation. In this context, Alp-Water-Scarce, a European project on Water Management Strategies against Water Scarcity in the Alps was funded by the Alpine Space programme as part of the "European Territorial Cooperation" scheme. It has 17 project partners from Austria Switzerland, France, Italy and Slovenia from local governments, provinces, federal institutes and offices, universities, regional agencies, alpine societies, geological surveys, and chambers of agriculture and forestry. The Lead Partner is the Mountain Institute in Savoy, Rhone-Alpes, France. The main challenges of this project are to create local Early Warning Systems against Water Scarcity in the Alps. This system is based on strengthening existing long-term monitoring and modeling and creating new measuring networks in those countries where they do not yet exist. It is anchored strongly and actively within a Stakeholder Interaction Forum linked across comparative and contrasting regions across the Alps. The Early Warning System is based on the linkage and improvement of field monitoring and assemblage of qualitative and quantitative data derived both from natural water reservoirs as well as from anthropogenic water use in 28 selected pilot regions selected in France, Italy, Austria, Slovenia and Switzerland. The objectives are to improve water management at the short term (annual scale) and long term (using future scenarios) based on modelling and application of climate change and anthropogenic scenarios. Innovative measures of mitigation and adaptation should predict and prevent future water shortages.

  17. MANAGING AIRPORT FUTURES USING ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Philip KIMMET MPhil

    Environmental management systems (EMS) are specifically designed to instruct organisations in the management of environmental impacts, and are considered by many to be the most valuable tool for building a sustainable future. However, because EMS are hinged to best practice and existing leading technology, they tend to lock-in current thinking. This is problematic for businesses such as airports, which are

  18. Ontologies for Enterprise Knowledge Management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alexander Maedche; Boris Motik; Ljiljana Stojanovic; Rudi Studer; Raphael Volz

    2003-01-01

    Several challenges exist related to applying ontologies in real-world environments. The authors present an integrated enterprise-knowledge management architecture, focusing on how to support multiple ontologies and manage ontology evolution.

  19. GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

    2009-12-01

    Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. The framework was successfully tested in two use scenarios of the GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG aiming to predict species distribution changes due to Climate Change factors, with the scientific patronage of the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop .

  20. GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

    2010-05-01

    In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. This framework was assessed in two use scenarios of GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG. Both scenarios concern the prediction of species distributions driven by climatological change forecasts. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. The scientific patronage was provided by the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska, respectively. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop.

  1. The Template of Events for Applied and Critical Healthcare Simulation (TEACH Sim): a tool for systematic simulation scenario design.

    PubMed

    Benishek, Lauren E; Lazzara, Elizabeth H; Gaught, William L; Arcaro, Lygia L; Okuda, Yasuharu; Salas, Eduardo

    2015-02-01

    Simulation-based training (SBT) affords practice opportunities for improving the quality of clinicians' technical and nontechnical skills. However, the development of practice scenarios is a process plagued by a set of challenges that must be addressed for the full learning potential of SBT to be realized. Scenario templates are useful tools for assisting with SBT and navigating its inherent challenges. This article describes existing SBT templates, explores considerations in choosing an appropriate template, and introduces the Template of Events for Applied and Critical Healthcare Simulation (TEACH Sim) as a tool for facilitating the formation of practice scenarios in accordance with an established evidence-based simulation design methodology. TEACH Sim's unique contributions are situated within the landscape of previously existing templates, and each of its component sections is explained in detail. PMID:25514586

  2. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

    PubMed

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter. PMID:11989487

  3. Water supply and demand in the lower Río Bravo\\/Río Grande basin: The irrigated agriculture scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    José Návar

    2004-01-01

    Conventional management of water resources cannot sustain development in the lower Río Bravo\\/Río Grande watershed. Long-term projections of water supply and demand provide information to plan for the sustainable management of water re- sources. Four scenarios were studied to project water availability and supply on the Mexican side of the Lower Río Bravo\\/Río Grande watershed: (i) water development of the

  4. Dark radiation in extended cosmological scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archidiacono, Maria; Giusarma, Elena; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Mena, Olga

    2012-08-01

    Recent cosmological data have provided evidence for a “dark” relativistic background at high statistical significance. Parameterized in terms of the number of relativistic degrees of freedom Neff, however, the current data seem to indicate a higher value than the one expected in the standard scenario based on three active neutrinos. This dark radiation component can be characterized not only by its abundance but also by its clustering properties, as its effective sound speed and its viscosity parameter. It is therefore crucial to study the correlations among the dark radiation properties and key cosmological parameters, as the dark energy equation of state or the running of the scalar spectral index, with current and future cosmic microwave background data. We find that dark radiation with viscosity parameters different from their standard values may be misinterpreted as an evolving dark energy component or as a running spectral index in the power spectrum of primordial fluctuations.

  5. Emergence in Holographic Scenarios for Gravity

    E-print Network

    Dieks, Dennis; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightfowardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and ...

  6. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  7. The Cosmological Slingshot Scenario: Myths and Facts

    E-print Network

    Cristiano Germani; Nicolas Grandi; Alex Kehagias

    2009-04-28

    We generalize the Cosmological Slingshot Scenario for a Slingshot brane moving in a Klebanov-Strassler throat. We show that the horizon and isotropy problems of standard cosmology are avoided, while the flatness problem is acceptably alleviated. Regarding the primordial perturbations, we identify their vacuum state and elucidate the evolution from the quantum to the classical regimes. Also, we calculate their exact power spectrum showing its compatibility with current data. We discuss the bouncing solution from a four dimensional point of view. In this framework the radial and angular motion of the Slingshot brane are described by two scalar fields. We show that the bouncing solution for the scale factor in String frame is mapped into a monotonically increasing (in conformal time) solution in the Einstein frame. We finally discuss about the regularity of the geometry in Einstein frame.

  8. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. PMID:16010760

  9. Commissioning Existing Buildings: A Program Perspective

    E-print Network

    Jump, D.; Rosillo, A.; Tahir, A.

    2003-01-01

    Plug leaky air tubing Relocate/ add zone temperature sensors. Implement averaging control strategies Eliminate one 25-HP air compressor Photocell/ astronomic clock/ schedule strategy for exterior lighting Replace leaky diaphragms Clean existing... sensors. Implement averaging control strategies Install occupancy sensors on selected areas Photocell/ astronomic clock/ schedule strategy for exterior lighting Clean existing fixtures and lenses Clean reflective surfaces and walls and ceilings...

  10. God exists with probability 1/(H+1)

    E-print Network

    Hoey, Jesse

    2012-01-01

    This note will address the issue of the existence of God from a game theoretic perspective. We will show that, under certain assumptions, man cannot simultaneously be (i) rational and (ii) believe that an infinitely powerful God exists. Game theory and decision theory have long been used to address this thorny question.

  11. Wrap existing COBOL programs as Web Services Wrap existing COBOL programs as Web Services

    E-print Network

    Wrap existing COBOL programs as Web Services Wrap existing COBOL programs as Web Services with IBM Boston May, 2011 © 2010 IBM Corporation 1 #12;Wrap existing COBOL programs as Web Services Abstract Developer for System z to craft modular components from existing code written in COBOL, PL/I or Java

  12. Agricultural conservation planning framework: 1. Developing multipractice watershed planning scenarios and assessing nutrient reduction potential.

    PubMed

    Tomer, M D; Porter, S A; Boomer, K M B; James, D E; Kostel, J A; Helmers, M J; Isenhart, T M; McLellan, E

    2015-05-01

    Spatial data on soils, land use, and topography, combined with knowledge of conservation effectiveness, can be used to identify alternatives to reduce nutrient discharge from small (hydrologic unit code [HUC]12) watersheds. Databases comprising soil attributes, agricultural land use, and light detection and ranging-derived elevation models were developed for two glaciated midwestern HUC12 watersheds: Iowa's Beaver Creek watershed has an older dissected landscape, and Lime Creek in Illinois is young and less dissected. Subsurface drainage is common in both watersheds. We identified locations for conservation practices, including in-field practices (grassed waterways), edge-of-field practices (nutrient-removal wetlands, saturated buffers), and drainage-water management, by applying terrain analyses, geographic criteria, and cross-classifications to field- and watershed-scale geographic data. Cover crops were randomly distributed to fields without geographic prioritization. A set of alternative planning scenarios was developed to represent a variety of extents of implementation among these practices. The scenarios were assessed for nutrient reduction potential using a spreadsheet approach to calculate the average nutrient-removal efficiency required among the practices included in each scenario to achieve a 40% NO-N reduction. Results were evaluated in the context of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which reviewed nutrient-removal efficiencies of practices and established the 40% NO-N reduction as Iowa's target for Gulf of Mexico hypoxia mitigation by agriculture. In both test watersheds, planning scenarios that could potentially achieve the targeted NO-N reduction but remove <5% of cropland from production were identified. Cover crops and nutrient removal wetlands were common to these scenarios. This approach provides an interim technology to assist local watershed planning and could provide planning scenarios to evaluate using watershed simulation models. A set of ArcGIS tools is being released to enable transfer of this mapping technology. PMID:26024256

  13. EXIST-priME-Cup 2012 Campus-Cup fr Frauen

    E-print Network

    Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität

    © EXIST-priME-Cup 2012 Campus-Cup für Frauen am 22./23.11.2012 bei der BARMER GEK Rostock Starkes Auftreten und erfolgreiche Gründung im Frauen Campus-Cup trainieren. Im Rahmen des bundesweiten Management- und Existenzgründungswettbewerbs EXIST-priME-Cup findet bei der BARMER GEK ein zweitägiges

  14. An Energy Conservation Retrofit Process for Existing Public and Institutional Facilities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tiedeman, Thomas V.

    This manual was developed to provide assistance to public officials first considering energy conservation in existing public buildings. The manual focuses on management decisions which must be made in implementing energy conservation programs for existing buildings. It provides assistance in developing a plan of attack, establishing schedules,…

  15. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...false Bonds in connection with existing roads. 2812.5-3 Section 2812.5-3...MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested...5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An applicant for permit or a...

  16. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...false Bonds in connection with existing roads. 2812.5-3 Section 2812.5-3...MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested...5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An applicant for permit or a...

  17. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...false Bonds in connection with existing roads. 2812.5-3 Section 2812.5-3...MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested...5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An applicant for permit or a...

  18. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...false Bonds in connection with existing roads. 2812.5-3 Section 2812.5-3...MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested...5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An applicant for permit or a...

  19. Grid management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hwang, Danny

    1992-01-01

    A computational environment that allows many Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) engineers to work on the same project exists in the Special Project Office (SPO). This environment enables several users to carry out the task of grid generation. The grid management system, used by the engineers, is described in a brief overview. The topics will include the grid file naming system, the grid-generation procedure, grid storage, and the grid format standard.

  20. SECTION 15 Table of Contents 15 Pend Oreille Subbasin Inventory of Existing Programs Aquatic............2

    E-print Network

    15-1 SECTION 15 ­ Table of Contents 15 Pend Oreille Subbasin Inventory of Existing Programs (Paragamian 1994). The world record bull trout, 14.5 kilograms (kg, 32 pounds), and the world record rainbow with bull trout and rainbow trout managed for a trophy fishery. Westslope cutthroat trout will be managed

  1. RECOGNIZING CONFLICTS This document provides a series of brief scenarios that illustrate situations in which an apparent

    E-print Network

    Fabry, Frederic

    RECOGNIZING CONFLICTS This document provides a series of brief scenarios that illustrate situations of interest regulations that these examples illustrate are specifically drafted in broad terms as it is never these illustrations that the mere existence of an apparent or real conflict situation does not necessarily connote

  2. The cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening for Cystic Fibrosis: an analysis of alternative scenarios using a decision model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Neil Simpson; Rob Anderson; Franco Sassi; Alexandra Pitman; Peter Lewis; Karen Tu; Heather Lannin

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis is widely debated in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, but the evidence available to inform policy is limited. This paper explores the cost-effectiveness of adding screening for cystic fibrosis to an existing routine neonatal screening programme for congenital hypothyroidism and phenylketonuria, under alternative scenarios and assumptions. METHODS: The study is based

  3. Fodder oat germplasm: a world scenario

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Keith W. Armstrong

    Summary Cultivation of fodder oats is growing in popularity with farmers in many areas of the HHK. Oat cultivars as part of new crop management technologies have been effective in increasing winter fodder production and improving animal condition, fertility and milk yields. The ad hoc supply of cultivars to the HHK region is of immediate concern. There is an urgent

  4. The combination of Forest Site Maps, Site specific Growth Models and Nutrient Balance Models as a Basis for Sustainable Management in the Northern Limestone Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ettmayer, C.; Katzensteiner, K.; Eckmüllner, O.

    2012-04-01

    The demand for biomass from forests is rising continuously. Decision support tools for managers and forest authorities should help to avoid negative consequences of increased biomass extraction on ecosystem processes and the sustainable supply of forest services. Those tools have to be site and stand specific. In Alpine regions shallow soils with high organic matter content are widespread on calcareous bedrock. There is increasing evidence that those soils are particularly vulnerable and intensive harvest leads to rapid humus and nutrient losses and a decline of water storage capacity. Such soils may rely on the existence of a continuous forest cover and/or a minimum input of coarse woody debris. For a test region in Tyrol management scenarios will be modelled to predict management effects on sites with calcareous bedrock. Site specific growth and yield models for biomass fractions are developed based on existing inventory data, site maps and high resolution digital surface and terrain models, complemented by stratified biomass and nutrient inventories, and are used for the calculation of different production scenarios. Nutrient balance models taking into account nutrient extraction via harvest, leaching losses as well as gains via atmospheric deposition, and fertilization are used to calculate the potential sustainable harvest intensity. In addition humus dynamics of the frequently shallow rendzic Leptosols is taken into account. Concepts for long term carbon and nutrient management experiments as a basis for adaptive forest management in the Calacareous Alps are developed.

  5. The space station integrated refuse management system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Loren A.

    1988-01-01

    The design and development of an Integrated Refuse Management System for the proposed International Space Station was performed. The primary goal was to make use of any existing potential energy or material properties that refuse may possess. The secondary goal was based on the complete removal or disposal of those products that could not, in any way, benefit astronauts' needs aboard the Space Station. The design of a continuous living and experimental habitat in space has spawned the need for a highly efficient and effective refuse management system capable of managing nearly forty-thousand pounds of refuse annually. To satisfy this need, the following four integrable systems were researched and developed: collection and transfer; recycle and reuse; advance disposal; and propulsion assist in disposal. The design of a Space Station subsystem capable of collecting and transporting refuse from its generation site to its disposal and/or recycling site was accomplished. Several methods of recycling or reusing refuse in the space environment were researched. The optimal solution was determined to be the method of pyrolysis. The objective of removing refuse from the Space Station environment, subsequent to recycling, was fulfilled with the design of a jettison vehicle. A number of jettison vehicle launch scenarios were analyzed. Selection of a proper disposal site and the development of a system to propel the vehicle to that site were completed. Reentry into the earth atmosphere for the purpose of refuse incineration was determined to be the most attractive solution.

  6. 78 FR 43860 - Caribbean Fishery Management Council; Scoping Meetings

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-22

    ...federal fishery management measures included in each of the existing species based management plans (Spiny Lobster, Reef Fish, Coral and Queen Conch). The goal is to create management plans tailored to the specific fishery management needs of each...

  7. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  8. Vehicle tracking and classification in challenging scenarios via slice sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieto, Marcos; Unzueta, Luis; Barandiaran, Javier; Cortés, Andoni; Otaegui, Oihana; Sánchez, Pedro

    2011-12-01

    This article introduces a 3D vehicle tracking system in a traffic surveillance environment devised for shadow tolling applications. It has been specially designed to operate in real time with high correct detection and classification rates. The system is capable of providing accurate and robust results in challenging road scenarios, with rain, traffic jams, casted shadows in sunny days at sunrise and sunset times, etc. A Bayesian inference method has been designed to generate estimates of multiple variable objects entering and exiting the scene. This framework allows easily mixing different nature information, gathering in a single step observation models, calibration, motion priors and interaction models. The inference of results is carried out with a novel optimization procedure that generates estimates of the maxima of the posterior distribution combining concepts from Gibbs and slice sampling. Experimental tests have shown excellent results for traffic-flow video surveillance applications that can be used to classify vehicles according to their length, width, and height. Therefore, this vision-based system can be seen as a good substitute to existing inductive loop detectors.

  9. Efficient Sensor Data Gathering and Resilient Communication for Rescue Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munaretto, Daniele; An, Chunlei; Widmer, Joerg; Timm-Giel, Andreas

    Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have been used mainly to collect environmental data and send it to a base station. Routing protocols are needed to efficiently direct the information flows to the base station. Since sensor nodes have strict energy constraints, data gathering and communication schemes for WSNs need to be designed for an efficient utilization of the available resources. An emergency management scenario is investigated, where a sensor network is deployed as virtual lifeline when entering a building. In addition to navigation support, the virtual lifeline is also used for two purposes. Firstly, to exchange short voice messages between fire fighter and command post. For the communication between command post and fire fighter a fast and reliable routing protocol (EMRO) has been developed based on a broadcasting scheme. Secondly, for data gathering a network coding based algorithm has been designed. The feasibility of simultaneously using this virtual lifeline for data gathering and communications is investigated in this paper by means of simulation and real experiments. The resilience to packet loss and node failure, as well as the transmission delay are investigated by means of short voice messages for the communication part and temperature readings for data gathering.

  10. Rehabilitation after Amputation: Psychotherapeutic Intervention Module in Indian Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srivastava, Kalpana; Chaudhury, Suprakash

    2014-01-01

    Psychological aspects of adjustment to amputation are varied and not addressed in the present treatment regime. There is no research evidence available of psychological intervention and outcome in Indian scenario. One hundred and seventy-three consecutive patients with limb amputations were randomly assigned to psychotherapeutic intervention module (PIM, study group) (n = 90) and treatment as usual group (TAU, control group) (n = 83). Patients with psychotic disorder were excluded from the study. Carroll Rating Scale for Depression (CRSD), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Amputees Body Image Scale (ABIS), and Impact of Event Scale (IES) along with specially designed information schedule were administered individually. Structured psychotherapeutic module was developed for the intervention. Patients in PIM group were given six therapy sessions, addressing the specific areas of concern. All patients were evaluated on the same tools after two months of therapy. Analysis showed that after treatment a significant reduction in scores was noted on CRSD, STAI, ABIS, and IES in the PIM group. On the TAU group a significant reduction was seen only in the ABIS. The psychological intervention module proposed by authors was efficacious in alleviating the psychological distress, depression, and anxiety and thus was vastly superior to the conventional method of management of amputees. PMID:24526895

  11. Life-cycle flow of mercury and recycling scenario of fluorescent lamps in Japan.

    PubMed

    Asari, Misuzu; Fukui, Kazuki; Sakai, Shin-Ichi

    2008-04-01

    We summarized the mercury flow of mercury-containing products from their manufacture to their disposal in Japan and discussed the current management of mercury-containing hazardous household waste (HHW). The mercury flow originating from these products was estimated to be about 10-20 tonnes annually, about 5 tonnes of which was attributable to fluorescent lamps, the major mercury-containing product in Japan. The recent rapid increase in digital home electronics with liquid crystal displays (e.g.,televisions, personal computers, mobile phones, and digital cameras) has led to a marked increase in the production of backlights, which are also fluorescent and contain mercury. Most of the annual flow was disposed of as waste, with only 0.6 tonnes Hg recovered. The mercury flow for end-of-life fluorescent lamps (excluding backlights) was analyzed under three scenarios for Kyoto, Japan for 2003: the present condition scenario, the improved recycling scenario, and the complete recycling scenario. Under the present condition scenario, mercury flow was calculated to be 34 kg Hg for incineration, 21 kg Hg for landfill, and only 4 kg Hg for recycling. The complete recycling scenario shows a simple flow, with all mercury recycled. Under this scenario for Kyoto, we calculated that a cyclic system having 47 kg of mercury (3.5 tonnes Hg in Japan) could be established if all fluorescent lamps (excluding those stored in residences) were collected and recycled. Mercury is a HHW priority chemical, and we need to limit its use and establish a closed-loop system. There are currently no regulations to achieve this, and the management of most HHWs is left to local governments. Therefore, products are disposed of in landfills or incinerated, except for some that are voluntarily collected and recycled. In order to recycle all of the waste fluorescent lamps, we must have a complete recycling system that has a high rate of public participation in collection. We also must have a closed-loop system of mercury recovery and reuse in which all stakeholders participate. Furthermore, it is important to share information and policies regarding fluorescent lamp recycling and related technologies with other countries, especially those in other countries, where fluorescent lamps are becoming more popular because of their high energy efficiency and long life. Also, it is important to develop mercury free and energy efficient lamps including LEDs (light emitting diodes). PMID:18237763

  12. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System for the Turkish and Portuguese NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana

    2013-04-01

    On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI and IPMA. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room and deployed at IPMA has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC and for the Portuguese NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situations in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise for the Turkish and Portuguese tsunami exercise scenarios. Impressions gained with the standards compliant TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported. The system version presented is based on event-driven architecture (EDA) and service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and is making use of relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). This demonstration is linked with the talk 'Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario' (EGU2013-2833) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.6).

  13. Architect's and engineer's guide to energy conservation in existing buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-04-01

    This second volume of the Architect's and Engineer's Guide to Energy Conservation in Existing Buildings serves as a handbook for energy managers to assist them in deciding which energy conservation opportunities (ECOs) to pursue. While the first volume of the set deals in general with ECOs, this volume details specifics concerning 118 ECOs, including how to implement the ECO, the information required to analyze the ECO, and the use of a personal computer model, ASEAM, to analyze each ECO. The 118 ECOs discussed in Chapter 1 and analyzed in Chapter 2 fall into the following eight categories: building equipment operation, building envelope, HVAC systems, HVAC distribution systems, water heating systems, lighting systems, power systems, and miscellaneous ECOs that do not fall into the other categories. The two-volume guide is based on research performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the Federal Energy management Program within the Office of Conservation. 33 refs., 18 figs., 32 tabs.

  14. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius]. The first part of the work describes the numerical modelling and the methodology adopted to evaluate the resistance of buildings under the combined action of volcanic phenomena. Those considered here for this multi-hazard approach are limited to the following: earthquakes, pyroclastic flows and ash falls. Because of the lack of a systematic and extensive database of building damages observed after eruptions of such intensity of the past, approaches to this work must take a hybrid form of stochastic and deterministic analyses, taking into account written histories of volcanic eruptions and expertise from field geologists to build up a semi-deterministic model of the possible combinations of the above hazards that are situated both in time and space. Once a range of possible scenarios has been determined, a full stochastic method can be applied to find a sub-set of permutations and combinations of possible effects. This preliminary study of identification of the possible combination of the phenomena, subdividing them into those which are discrete and those which are continuous in time and space, enables consideration the vulnerability functions of the combinations to be feasible. In previous works [Spence, R., Brichieri-Colombi, N., Holdsworth, F., Baxter, P., Zuccaro, G., 2004a. Vesuvius: building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow (25 pages). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 321-343. ISSN 0377-0273; Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Baxter, P.J., 2004b. The resistance of buildings to pyroclastic flows: theoretical and experimental studies in relation to Vesuvius, ASCE Nat. Hazards Rev. 5, 48-50. ISSN 1527-6988; Spence, R., Kelman, I., Petrazzuoli, S., Zuccaro, G., 2005. Residential Buildings and Occupant Vulnerabi

  15. Data linkage between existing healthcare databases to support hospital epidemiology.

    PubMed

    García Álvarez, L; Aylin, P; Tian, J; King, C; Catchpole, M; Hassall, S; Whittaker-Axon, K; Holmes, A

    2011-11-01

    Enhancing the use of existing datasets within acute hospitals will greatly facilitate hospital epidemiology, surveillance, the monitoring of a variety of processes, outcomes and risk factors, and the provision of alert systems. Multiple overlapping data systems exist within National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in the UK, and many duplicate data recordings take place because of the lack of linkage and interfaces. This results in hospital-collected data not being used efficiently. The objective was to create an inventory of all existing systems, including administrative, management, human resources, microbiology, patient care and other platforms, to describe the data architecture that could contribute valuable information for a hospital epidemiology unit. These datasets were investigated as to how they could be used to generate surveillance data, key performance indicators and risk information that could be shared at board, clinical programme group, specialty and ward level. An example of an output of this integrated data platform and its application in influenza resilience planning and responsiveness is described. The development of metrics for staff absence and staffing levels may also be used as key indicators for risk-monitoring for infection prevention. This work demonstrates the value of such a data inventory and linkage and the importance of more sophisticated uses of existing NHS data, and innovative collaborative approaches to support clinical care, quality improvement, surveillance, emergency planning and research. PMID:21868128

  16. Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

    2012-12-01

    Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud. PMID:22492177

  17. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amy K. Snover; Nathan J. Mantua; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander; Michelle M. McClure; Janet Nye

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  18. Ranked management concerns to assess SLR impacts to wetlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, H. H.; Fletcher, C. H.

    2012-12-01

    Historically the Hawaiian Islands supported over 30 species of waterbirds. However, due largely to habitat loss, four of the six remaining endemic waterbird species are listed as endangered and require low-lying coastal plain freshwater wetlands for their survival. Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens these ecosystems by direct inundation, salt water intrusion, coastal erosion, drainage problems, and habitat change. To better communicate these risks to wetland decision-makers we improve upon standard inundation mapping by assessing the SLR vulnerability of James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge, O'ahu, Hawai'i as a function of four input parameters: 1. time of inundation, 2. inundation type, 3. ecological significance, and 4. management intensity. We create a 2 m horizontal resolution raster for each input parameter and apply a vulnerability score of 1-10, 10 being most vulnerable. We estimate time of inundation and inundation type using Vermeer and Rahmstorf's (2009) economic scenario SLR curves, a 2007 USACE digital elevation model (DEM), and the 8-sided hydrologic connectivity method. Ecologically threatened habitats flooded by SLR were digitized by wetland managers from imagery, and management intensity is a measure of difficulty in managing flooded areas due to the location of water control devices and accessibility associated with land cover. The resulting spatial information is combined and areas with the highest total vulnerability score are identified as a guide to focus future management efforts. Existing wetland areas with low vulnerability scores may serve as the most suitable areas for future wetlands.

  19. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile inventory, capacity to be deployed, induced radiotoxicities, and R&D efforts.

  20. Greening existing buildings with LEED-EB!

    E-print Network

    Dirksen, Tyson H

    2008-01-01

    The market of existing office buildings is going green. While early adopters of green buildings were owner-occupiers, there is a current wave of nonowner-occupied office buildings seeking Leadership in Energy and Environmental ...

  1. DESIGN MANUAL: UPGRADING EXISTING WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A revision to the 1971 original, it discusses and evaluates corrective actions that are required to upgrade existing municipal wastewater treatment plants. ull chapter is devoted to case histories of successful upgrading situations....

  2. Improvements to Existing Jefferson Lab Wire Scanners

    SciTech Connect

    McCaughan, Michael D. [JLAB; Tiefenback, Michael G. [JLAB; Turner, Dennis L. [JLAB

    2013-06-01

    This poster will detail the augmentation of selected existing CEBAF wire scanners with commercially available hardware, PMTs, and self created software in order to improve the scanners both in function and utility.

  3. Existence Verification for Singular Zeros of Nonlinear

    E-print Network

    Kearfott, R. Baker

    verification May, 1999 SIAM--4 #12; Singularities When the Jacobi matrix F 0 (x \\Lambda ) is singular, computations as above cannot possibly prove existence and uniqueness. For such systems, the best

  4. Preventing Existence Cleo Condoravdi Dick Crouch

    E-print Network

    Stolle, Reinhard

    of prevention statements in both natural language semantics and knowledge representation, with particular regard problems for both knowledge representation and natural language semantics. (1) Negotiations preventedPreventing Existence Cleo Condoravdi Dick Crouch John Everett Valeria Paiva Reinhard Stolle Danny

  5. 15 CFR 8b.17 - Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...17(a) and, if the time period of the transition plan is longer than one year...taken during each year of the transition period; and (4) Indicate the...Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control...

  6. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    E-print Network

    Liew, Seng Pei; Mawatari, Kentarou; Sakurai, Kazuki; Vereecken, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 $\\sigma$ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain $\\tilde g\\to g\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}\\to gZ\\tilde G'$ becomes dominant, where $\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}$ and $\\tilde G'$ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as $m_{\\tilde g}\\sim 900$ GeV, $m_{\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}}\\sim 700$ GeV and $m_{\\tilde G'}\\sim 600$ GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  7. Metagenomic detection methods in biopreparedness outbreak scenarios.

    PubMed

    Karlsson, Oskar Erik; Hansen, Trine; Knutsson, Rickard; Löfström, Charlotta; Granberg, Fredrik; Berg, Mikael

    2013-09-01

    In the field of diagnostic microbiology, rapid molecular methods are critically important for detecting pathogens. With rapid and accurate detection, preventive measures can be put in place early, thereby preventing loss of life and further spread of a disease. From a preparedness perspective, early detection and response are important in order to minimize the consequences. During the past 2 decades, advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology have changed the playing field of molecular methods. Today, it is within reach to completely sequence the total microbiological content of a clinical sample, creating a metagenome, in a single week of laboratory work. As new technologies emerge, their dissemination and capacity building must be facilitated, and criteria for use, as well as guidelines on how to report results, must be established. This article focuses on the use of metagenomics, from sample collection to data analysis and to some extent NGS, for the detection of pathogens, the integration of the technique in outbreak response systems, and the risk-based evaluation of sample processing in routine diagnostics labs. The article covers recent advances in the field, current debate, gaps in research, and future directions. Examples of metagenomic detection, as well as possible applications of the methods, are described in various biopreparedness outbreak scenarios. PMID:23971800

  8. Recent scenario of obesity and male fertility.

    PubMed

    Shukla, K K; Chambial, S; Dwivedi, S; Misra, S; Sharma, P

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this review was to provide current scenario linking obesity and male fertility. Obesity has been linked to male fertility because of lifestyle changes, internal hormonal environment alterations, and sperm genetic factors. A few studies assessing the impact of obesity on sperm genetic factor have been published, but they did not lead to a strong consensus. Our objective was to explore further the relationship between sperm genetic factor and obesity. There are emerging facts that obesity negatively affects male reproductive potential not only by reducing sperm quality, but in particular it alters the physical and molecular structure of germ cells in the testes and ultimately affects the maturity and function of sperm cells. Inhibition of microRNA in the male pronucleus of fertilized zygotes produces offspring of phenotypes of variable severity depending on miRNAs ratios. Hence, these RNAs have a role in the oocyte development during fertilization and in embryo development, fetal survival, and offspring phenotype. It has been reported that the miRNA profile is altered in spermatozoa of obese males, however, the impact of these changes in fertilization and embryo health remains as yet not known. PMID:25269421

  9. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunziata, C.; Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.; Panza, G. F.

    2008-07-01

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  10. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Nunziata, C. [Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Univ. Napoli Federico II (Italy); Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E. [Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Univ. Trieste (Italy); Panza, G. F. [Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Univ. Trieste (Italy); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ESP-SAND Group, Trieste (Italy)

    2008-07-08

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  11. Tracking Object Existence From an Autonomous Patrol Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolf, Michael; Scharenbroich, Lucas

    2011-01-01

    An autonomous vehicle patrols a large region, during which an algorithm receives measurements of detected potential objects within its sensor range. The goal of the algorithm is to track all objects in the region over time. This problem differs from traditional multi-target tracking scenarios because the region of interest is much larger than the sensor range and relies on the movement of the sensor through this region for coverage. The goal is to know whether anything has changed between visits to the same location. In particular, two kinds of alert conditions must be detected: (1) a previously detected object has disappeared and (2) a new object has appeared in a location already checked. For the time an object is within sensor range, the object can be assumed to remain stationary, changing position only between visits. The problem is difficult because the upstream object detection processing is likely to make many errors, resulting in heavy clutter (false positives) and missed detections (false negatives), and because only noisy, bearings-only measurements are available. This work has three main goals: (1) Associate incoming measurements with known objects or mark them as new objects or false positives, as appropriate. For this, a multiple hypothesis tracker was adapted to this scenario. (2) Localize the objects using multiple bearings-only measurements to provide estimates of global position (e.g., latitude and longitude). A nonlinear Kalman filter extension provides these 2D position estimates using the 1D measurements. (3) Calculate the probability that a suspected object truly exists (in the estimated position), and determine whether alert conditions have been triggered (for new objects or disappeared objects). The concept of a probability of existence was created, and a new Bayesian method for updating this probability at each time step was developed. A probabilistic multiple hypothesis approach is chosen because of its superiority in handling the uncertainty arising from errors in sensors and upstream processes. However, traditional target tracking methods typically assume a stationary detection volume of interest, whereas in this case, one must make adjustments for being able to see only a small portion of the region of interest and understand when an alert situation has occurred. To track object existence inside and outside the vehicle's sensor range, a probability of existence was defined for each hypothesized object, and this value was updated at every time step in a Bayesian manner based on expected characteristics of the sensor and object and whether that object has been detected in the most recent time step. Then, this value feeds into a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to determine the status of the object (suspected, confirmed, or deleted). Alerts are sent upon selected status transitions. Additionally, in order to track objects that move in and out of sensor range and update the probability of existence appropriately a variable probability detection has been defined and the hypothesis probability equations have been re-derived to accommodate this change. Unsupervised object tracking is a pervasive issue in automated perception systems. This work could apply to any mobile platform (ground vehicle, sea vessel, air vehicle, or orbiter) that intermittently revisits regions of interest and needs to determine whether anything interesting has changed.

  12. Fault management Fault management

    E-print Network

    Fault management Pag. 1 Fault management Andrea Bianco T l i ti N t k G Network Management and Qo Torino #12;Fault management Pag. 2 The impact of network failures Cable 1101011000110101011 1 cable x 200 fibers/cable x 160 /fiber x 10 Gb/s/ = 320 Tb/s 5 billion telephone lines (@ 64 kb/s) Network Management

  13. Fault management Fault management

    E-print Network

    Fault management Pag. 1 Fault management Network Management and QoS Provisioning - 1Andrea Bianco traffic · May translate to revenue losses 5 billion telephone lines (@ 64 kb/s) 60.000 full CDs per second #12;Fault management Pag. 2 Fibers Network Management and QoS Provisioning - 4Andrea Bianco ­ TNG

  14. Information basis for developing comprehensive waste management system-US-Japan joint nuclear energy action plan waste management working group phase I report.

    SciTech Connect

    Nutt, M.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2010-05-25

    The activity of Phase I of the Waste Management Working Group under the United States - Japan Joint Nuclear Energy Action Plan started in 2007. The US-Japan JNEAP is a bilateral collaborative framework to support the global implementation of safe, secure, and sustainable, nuclear fuel cycles (referred to in this document as fuel cycles). The Waste Management Working Group was established by strong interest of both parties, which arise from the recognition that development and optimization of waste management and disposal system(s) are central issues of the present and future nuclear fuel cycles. This report summarizes the activity of the Waste Management Working Group that focused on consolidation of the existing technical basis between the U.S. and Japan and the joint development of a plan for future collaborative activities. Firstly, the political/regulatory frameworks related to nuclear fuel cycles in both countries were reviewed. The various advanced fuel cycle scenarios that have been considered in both countries were then surveyed and summarized. The working group established the working reference scenario for the future cooperative activity that corresponds to a fuel cycle scenario being considered both in Japan and the U.S. This working scenario involves transitioning from a once-through fuel cycle utilizing light water reactors to a one-pass uranium-plutonium fuel recycle in light water reactors to a combination of light water reactors and fast reactors with plutonium, uranium, and minor actinide recycle, ultimately concluding with multiple recycle passes primarily using fast reactors. Considering the scenario, current and future expected waste streams, treatment and inventory were discussed, and the relevant information was summarized. Second, the waste management/disposal system optimization was discussed. Repository system concepts were reviewed, repository design concepts for the various classifications of nuclear waste were summarized, and the factors to consider in repository design and optimization were then discussed. Japan is considering various alternatives and options for the geologic disposal facility and the framework for future analysis of repository concepts was discussed. Regarding the advanced waste and storage form development, waste form technologies developed in both countries were surveyed and compared. Potential collaboration areas and activities were next identified. Disposal system optimization processes and techniques were reviewed, and factors to consider in future repository design optimization activities were also discussed. Then the potential collaboration areas and activities related to the optimization problem were extracted.

  15. 77 FR 41444 - Notice of Availability of the Draft Resource Management Plan and Draft Environmental Impact...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-13

    ...recreation, areas with special management designations, lands with...continuation of existing management; Alternative B, which...mechanized firefighting equipment, chemical drops, intensive forestry management, and fire hazard...

  16. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.

  17. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  18. Ground shaking scenarios for historical earthquakes in the southeastern Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiberi, L.; Costa, G.; Suhadolc, P.

    2012-04-01

    In the southeastern Alps destructive earthquakes up to Mw 6 have occurred in the past and might occur in the future with a similar strenght. Knowledge of past earthquakes - based on historical research - is useful to regional governments and regional planning bodies that have to develop prevention and civil protection plans. Some of the most relevant seismogenic sources of northeastern of Italy, western Slovenia and southern Austria, which play an important role in earthquake hazard and risk of the area, are studied in the framework of the Interreg IV A HAREIA project. In particular, based on active fault data and historical records we produce ground shaking scenarios for the biggest known historical earthquakes. In our scenarios the synthetic seismograms are computed using a kinematic approach for the representation of the extended source. We assume an a priori seismic moment distribution, which is a function of time and space and use geometrical dimensions of the fault, related to the estimated epicentral intensity, and focal mechanism parameters based either on recent mechanisms or active tectonics data. The method has been tested on the Bovec 2002 event. In this case synthetic seismograms have been calculated not only on a pre-determined grid but also at some existing stations that have recorded data in order to compare real and synthetic seismograms. The main result of this study is the calculation of the maximum peak ground velocity value computed at 1Hz (PGV1H) for all studied events at every point of the computation grid, which covers the entire area of interest. Additionally, we have started an accurate analysis of some historical events known as the Tyrol (1572,1670 and1689), Villach (1348) and Idrija (1511) earthquakes. For the latter we compare the intensity distribution estimated independently by other researchers with the one derived using empirical relationship from our computed PGV1H values, in order to get a first estimate of those parameter (i.e. fault mechanism, position of nucleation point, hypocentral depth) values, that produce PGV1H maps which have a roughly similar pattern as that of the observed intensity ones.

  19. Cost analysis of hospital material management systems.

    PubMed

    Egbelu, P J; Harmonosky, C M; Ventura, J A; O'Brien, W E; Sommer, H J

    1998-01-01

    Integrated healthcare material management begins with manufactures of medical/surgical supplies, uses distributors and ends at the point of use at hospitals. Recent material management philosophies in the healthcare industry, such as just-in-time and stockless systems, are yet to be fully evaluated. In order to evaluate the cost effectiveness of each type of material management technique, a cost model for hospital materials management has been designed. Several case scenarios are analyzed and results are reported. PMID:9785293

  20. Scenario Planning as the Development of Leadership Capability and Capacity; and Virtual Human Resource Development 

    E-print Network

    McWhorter, Rochell 1963-

    2011-08-03

    scenario planning and leadership development, 2) descriptive process and outcome data from scenario planning programs in university business schools, and 3) fifteen published scenario planning reports, 4) observations of the scenario planning process...