Science.gov

Sample records for management existing scenario

  1. Scenario management and automated scenario generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

    2006-05-01

    The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

  2. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  3. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  4. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario studies, links to other scenario studies, a forum for discussion on scenarios, a depository on scenario development publications, and a suggested scenario glossary.

  5. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  6. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    PubMed

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153

  7. Control Based Sensor Management for a Multiple Radar Monitoring Scenario

    E-print Network

    Kokar, Mieczyslaw M.

    Control Based Sensor Management for a Multiple Radar Monitoring Scenario Yong Xun and Mieczyslaw M of each radar (expressed as a quality of service metric). This problem can be viewed as two subproblems: multiple radar monitoring, real-time task generation, real-time scheduling, real-time resource allocation

  8. Energy Management Strategies for Existing Buildings 

    E-print Network

    Gilmer, L.

    2009-01-01

    stream_source_info ESL-IC-09-11-11.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 989 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name ESL-IC-09-11-11.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Energy Management...

  9. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  10. Water Use Conservation Scenarios for the Mississippi Delta Using an Existing Regional Groundwater Flow Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barlow, J. R.; Clark, B. R.

    2010-12-01

    The alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi, locally referred to as the Delta, is a major agricultural area, which contributes significantly to the economy of Mississippi. Land use in this area can be greater than 90 percent agriculture, primarily for growing catfish, corn, cotton, rice, and soybean. Irrigation is needed to smooth out the vagaries of climate and is necessary for the cultivation of rice and for the optimization of corn and soybean. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer, which underlies the Delta, is the sole source of water for irrigation, and over use of the aquifer has led to water-level declines, particularly in the central region. The Yazoo-Mississippi-Delta Joint Water Management District (YMD), which is responsible for water issues in the 17-county area that makes up the Delta, is directing resources to reduce the use of water through conservation efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a regional groundwater flow model of the entire Mississippi embayment, including the Mississippi Delta region, to further our understanding of water availability within the embayment system. This model is being used by the USGS to assist YMD in optimizing their conservation efforts by applying various water-use reduction scenarios, either uniformly throughout the Delta, or in focused areas where there have been large groundwater declines in the MRVA aquifer.

  11. Agricultural water management scenarios to protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foglia, Laura; Harter, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In this work we combine different tools to evaluate impact of water management scenarios in an agricultural basin. Here we first develop a spatio-temporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. In a second step, the water budget model is used to provide recharge and pumping values for each field as input for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2005. Results of the simulations obtained by means of the simple coupled soil water budget model/analytical model have been used to select and design with the engagement of stakeholders feasible management scenarios. The latter have been implemented in the numerical groundwater model. Results and insights from both modelling approaches are discussed. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations obtained with the two approaches suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance - stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site specific feasibility studies. The further implementation of the management scenarios into the numerical groundwater model provides details on the local impact of the results and more insights about specific data collection and needed infrastructures in order to practically develop the management scenarios.

  12. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  13. Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

  14. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  15. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  16. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  17. Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

    PubMed Central

    Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

  18. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    PubMed

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the corresponding system patterns in terms of the proposed architecture, and make this concrete by presenting some comprehensive interaction examples as comic strip stories. Next, we discuss the implementation requirements and how they can be met with the available technologies, discuss a possible architecture, refine it in the concrete case of the TuCSoN coordination technology, present a subsystem prototype and discuss its properties in the Butlers perspective. PMID:24555169

  19. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, A.; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.

    PubMed

    Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T

    2011-01-01

    Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed. PMID:20151189

  1. Current Clinical Practice Scenario of Osteoporosis Management in India

    PubMed Central

    Jhaveri, Shailesh; Upashani, Tejas; Bhadauria, Jitendra; Patel, Kamlesh

    2015-01-01

    Background Various osteoporosis guidelines are available for practice. Aim To understand the current clinical practice scenario from the perspective of Indian orthopaedicians, especially about the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, approach to diagnosis and management and patient compliance patterns to long term treatment. Materials and Methods A pre-validated structured questionnaire containing questions (mostly objective, some open-ended) catering to various objectives of the study was circulated amongst orthopaedic surgeons across India by means of post/courier, after giving a brief overview of the study telephonically. Data was extracted from the completed questionnaires, and analysed using Microsoft Excel software. Results The questionnaire was filled by a total of 84 orthopaedicians throughout India. The prevalence of osteoporosis in India according to the orthopaedic surgeons was 38.4% and there was a female preponderance. Most of the respondents felt out of every 100 osteoporosis patients in India, less than 20 patients are actually diagnosed and treated for osteoporosis. The most common initial presenting feature of established osteoporosis cases was general symptoms. Most respondents preferred Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) as the initial investigation for the diagnosis of osteoporosis in a patient presenting with typical features. While most respondents preferred once-a-month oral over intravenous (IV) bisphosphonates, they agreed that IV administration had advantages such as lower gastrointestinal side effects and improved compliance. The average duration of therapy of oral bisphosphonates was the longest (27.04 months) among the other anti- osteoporosis therapies that they used. On an average, the patient compliance rate in osteoporosis management was around 64%. IV Zoledronic acid (ZA) and intranasal calcitonin were infrequently used than other anti- osteoporosis therapies. While concerns about cost and availability deterred more frequent usage, there was an agreement that if used regularly these two agents may improve compliance rates among patients. Conclusion Current clinical practice scenario of osteoporosis management in India largely adheres to various clinical practice guidelines for osteoporosis. Side effects and lengthy duration of therapy with bisphosphonates seem to be the main factors leading to a low patient compliance. Widespread popularization of once-yearly Zoledronic acid and intranasal calcitonin spray may improve patient compliance and reduce side effect incidence. PMID:26557579

  2. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.

    PubMed

    Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites. PMID:18262405

  3. The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

    PubMed

    Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

    2015-04-15

    Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps. PMID:25638653

  4. Putting watershed restoration in context: alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, A H; Steel, E A; Caras, Y; Sheer, M; Olson, P; Kaje, J

    2009-01-01

    Predicting effects of habitat restoration is an important step for recovery of imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Habitat above three major hydropower dams in the Lewis River watershed, southwestern Washington, USA, will soon become accessible to anadromous fish. We used multiple models to estimate habitat conditions above dams and fish population responses. Additionally, we used scenario planning to predict how habitat and fish will respond to potential future trends in land use due to human population growth and riparian conservation policies. Finally, we developed a hypothetical management strategy (i.e., a set of prioritized restoration projects in specific locations within the watershed) as an example of how a fixed amount of restoration funds might be spent to enhance the success of reintroducing fish above dams. We then compared predicted outcomes from this new strategy to those of six previously modeled strategies. We estimated how the choice of the best management strategy might differ among alternative future scenarios. Results suggest that dam passage will provide access to large amounts of high-quality habitat that will benefit fish populations. Moreover, conservation of existing riparian areas, if implemented, has the potential to improve conditions to a much greater extent than restoration strategies examined, despite expected urban growth. We found that the relative performance of management strategies shifted when fish were allowed to migrate above dams, but less so among alternative futures examined. We discuss how predicted outcomes from these seven hypothetical management strategies could be used for developing an on-the-ground strategy to address a real management situation. PMID:19323185

  5. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling and quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.

  6. The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.

    PubMed

    Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

    2013-12-01

    The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

  7. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  8. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-06-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1-6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  9. A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

  10. Predicting bird response to alternative management scenarios on a ranch in Campeche, Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, P.A.; Dawson, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Wilson, M.H.

    2005-01-01

    We developed models to predict the potential response of wintering Neotropical migrant and resident bird species to alternative management scenarios, using data from point counts of birds along with habitat variables measured or estimated from remotely sensed data in a Geographic Information System. Expected numbers of occurrences at points were calculated for 100 species of birds, under current habitat conditions and under habitat conditions that would result from seven alternative management scenarios for Rancho Sandoval, a cattle ranch and private nature reserve in Campeche, Mexico. Most bird species of conservation concern would benefit from management scenarios that increase the amount of forest, but the highest priority resident species would not. To balance the somewhat conflicting habitat needs of these species and the concerns of ranch managers, we recommend that forest area and connectivity be increased, and pastures be maintained but more efficiently managed to support cattle and the priority resident and migrant birds that require open habitats.

  11. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  12. Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vajk, J. P.

    1978-01-01

    The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

  13. Teaching Conflict Management Using a Scenario-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callanan, Gerard A.; Perri, David F.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors present a framework for the teaching of conflict management in college courses. The framework describes an experiential learning approach for helping individuals understand the influence of contextual factors in the selection of conflict handling strategy. It also includes a comparison of participants' choice of style,…

  14. Contextualizing Learning Scenarios According to Different Learning Management Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drira, R.; Laroussi, M.; Le Pallec, X.; Warin, B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we first demonstrate that an instructional design process of Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) systems based on a Model Driven Approach (MDA) addresses the limits of Learning Technology Standards (LTS), such as SCORM and IMS-LD. Although these standards ensure the interoperability of TEL systems across different Learning Management

  15. Design in Practice: Scenarios for Improving Management Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlenker, Lee; Chantelot, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to design in business, Design Thinking has had little impact on the quality of business school education. Building upon the foundations of long-standing critiques of management education and the potential for student-centric learning, the authors propose that the use of Design in Practice can significantly…

  16. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

  17. Design Scenarios for Web-Based Management of Online Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepting, Daryl H.; Maciag, Timothy

    The Internet enables access to more information, from a greater variety of perspectives and with greater immediacy, than ever before. A person may be interested in information to become more informed or to coordinate his or her local activities and place them into a larger, more global context. The challenge, as has been noted by many, is to sift through all the information to find what is relevant without becoming overwhelmed. Furthermore, the selected information must be put into an actionable form. The diversity of the Web has important consequences for the variety of ideas that are now available. While people once relied on newspaper editors to shape their view of the world, today's technology creates room for a more democratic approach. Today it is easy to pull news feeds from a variety of sources and aggregate them. It is less easy to push that information to a variety of channels. At a higher level, we might have the goal of collecting all the available information about a certain topic, on a daily basis. There are many new technologies available under the umbrella of Web 2.0, but it can be difficult to use them together for the management of online information. Web-based support for online communication management is the most appropriate choice to address the deficiencies apparent with current technologies. We consider the requirements and potential designs for such information management support, by following an example related to local food.

  18. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore »employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

  19. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.

  20. "Managing the existing inventory of bridges and other highway structures

    E-print Network

    Zhigilei, Leonid V.

    scale transportation management systems. Currently, two infrastructure monitoring systems have been of steel bridges using 3-D laser scanning · Using SHM systems to provide asset management data · Bridge for Transportation Innovation and Research (VCTIR). Infrastructure Asset Management Our group is investigating

  1. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

  2. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  3. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  4. Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celi?, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgo?, Nedo; Isajlovi?, Igor; Mar?eta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

    2014-05-01

    The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target species, facilitating the development of control measures to achieve a healthy balance between stock exploitation and socio-economic factors.

  5. Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate across research programmes. If implemented using appropriate technologies and harmonized with existing ontologies, this approach enables queries, sensitivity analyses, and visualization of complex relationships.

  6. Research on Commercial Patterns of China Existing Building Energy Retrofit Based on Energy Management Contract 

    E-print Network

    Han, Z.; Liu, C.; Sun, J.

    2006-01-01

    Existing building energy retrofit is one of the keys of building energy efficiency in China. According to experience in developed countries, implementation of energy management contract (EMC) is crucial to promote existing building energy retrofit...

  7. How Existing Business Management Concepts Become School Leadership Fashions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Craig; Reitzug, Ulrich C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This article examines the history of three management concepts that originated in the business sector and progressed to the K-12 education sector. Framework: We propose a new conceptual model intended to help illuminate how ideas and strategies originally created for business leadership gain influence in the realm of K-12 school…

  8. A Demand-Side Management Experience in Existing Building Commissioning 

    E-print Network

    Franconi, E.; Selch, M.; Bradford, J.; Gruen, B.

    2003-01-01

    As part of a suite of demand-side management (DSM) program offerings, Xcel Energy provides a recommissioning program to its Colorado commercial customers. The program has a summer peak-demand savings goal of 7.8 MW to be achieved by 2005. Commenced...

  9. Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

    2013-01-01

    In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

  10. Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

    2013-01-01

    In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

  11. Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying & Utilizing an Existing Configuration & Data Management Infrastructure

    SciTech Connect

    VANN, J.M.

    2000-08-24

    The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.

  12. Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do Nothing Approach" based on the defined environmental, health, social, and economical criteria, the most important being related to the environment and the economy. The robustness of the achieved ranking of AR management options has been tested by changing the selected criteria, criteria importance and criteria structure. The final analysis shows that all six AR management strategies are better than "doing nothing". The implementation of groundwater artificial recharge with maximum possible infiltration of secondary treated effluent in conjunction with sustainable reuse of the recharged water for agricultural development is the most effective AR solution to the water resources problems of the Gaza Strip.

  13. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping groundwater levels near the stream higher, and the stream gaining longer into the dry summer period.

  14. Effects of hypothetical management scenarios on simulated water temperatures in the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Risley, John C.

    2000-01-01

    In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Unified Sewerage Agency of Washington County, Oregon (USA) began a cooperative study to better understand water-temperature variations in the Tualatin River and to assess mitigative water-management solutions. Continuous water-temperature data were collected at locations along the main stem of the river and along the major tributaries during the lowflow periods of 1994 and 1995. The 1994 data were used to develop and calibrate flow and water-temperature models characterizing conditions in the main stem. The models were used to simulate 10 hypotheti3 cal water-management scenarios, which would enable water managers to understand the effects of various human activities on water temperatures. Modeling results from the study are presented in Risley (1997); the data collected are presented in Risley and Doyle (1997). This report presents the water-temperature model simulation results of 16 additional hypothetical water-management scenarios using the 1994 and 1995 data. The additional modeling was funded by the USGS and the USA under a cooperative agreement. For a comprehensive description of the water-temperature models and their underlying assumptions, refer to Risley (1997).

  15. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    PubMed Central

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  16. Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

    PubMed

    Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

    2015-03-15

    Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. PMID:25617786

  17. Economic and ecological implications of alternative brush management and restoration scenarios designed to improve water yield in two Texas watersheds 

    E-print Network

    Olenick, Keith Layne

    2002-01-01

    to improve water yield and wildlife habitat in two Texas watersheds by using a model which incorporated information from a hydrologic modeling group, landowner focus group meetings, and range scientists. Brush management/restoration Scenario I incorporates...

  18. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    PubMed

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis. PMID:26675997

  19. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is exceeded, and decreases as the forest regenerates. In all cases, the effects are greatest in small to intermediate sized streams where wood is the dominant driver of channel morphology, and become negligible in large streams governed by fluvial processes.

  20. Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

    One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision making.

  1. Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

    2015-04-01

    Humans rely on ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services, namely water supply and water damage mitigation, and promoting forests is a widely used management strategy for the provision of hydrological services. Therefore, it is important to model how forests will contribute for this provision, taking into account the environmental characteristics of each region, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns of societal demand. In addition, ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is one of the aims included in the European Union biodiversity strategy to 2020. On the other hand, forest management for hydrological services must consider possible trade-offs with other services provision, as well as with biodiversity conservation. Accurate modeling and mapping of both hydrological services and biodiversity conservation value is thus important to support spatial planning and land management options involving forests. The objectives of this study were: to analyze the provision and spatial dynamics of hydrological services under two forest cover change scenarios (oak and eucalyptus/pine) compared to the current shrubland-dominated landscape; and to evaluate their spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed (250km2), in northwest Portugal, was used as case-study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services (water supply quantity, timing and quality; soil erosion and flood regulation), and was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments, nitrates and evapotranspiration. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions and field measurements. The maps for each service under the different scenarios were produced at the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) level. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert valuation applied to a land cover map. Statistical correlations between hydrological services provision and biodiversity conservation value were assessed using the Spearman rank correlation. The current delivery of hydrological services in the Vez watershed is higher at the high and low mountain sub-basins, with lower provision in the valley. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and the oak scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine scenario, which performs better for flood regulation and erosion control, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. However, this scenario is the one with more spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value, especially inside protected areas. Several strategies may be suggested for effective land use planning in the Vez watershed. Eucalyptus/pine is the scenario with the best results for flood regulation and soil erosion control, associated to the positive revenues from the pulp production industry. However, cautions should be taken regarding strategies for biodiversity conservation (preferably by favoring native oak species), as well as the potential increase in fire risk. This study highlights SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping hydrological services generated at the watershed scale, therefore contributing to improve the options for land management.

  2. Impact of peatland drainage and restoration on esker groundwater resources: modeling future scenarios for management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Pekka M.; Ala-aho, Pertti; Doherty, John; Kløve, Bjørn

    2014-08-01

    Esker aquifers are common groundwater bodies in Europe. Management of these aquifers should take account of the sustainability of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and land use in an integrated way. An unconfined esker aquifer in northern Finland was modelled with MODFLOW to determine how groundwater resources are impacted by the surrounding peatland drainage scheme and to simulate scenarios for possible drainage restoration. The impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change were also simulated. A calibration-constrained Monte Carlo method was used to provide information on the uncertainties associated with model predictions. The results suggest that peatland drainage in the vicinity of eskers can have a significant role in lowering the water table, even though climate variability may mask these impacts. Drainage restoration by filling the ditches might have positive impacts on the aquifer water levels. Comparison of water-table changes caused by peatland drainage with the changes brought by water abstraction and climate variability helped to quantify impacts of different land-use scenarios and facilitated discussion with the local stakeholders. Based on this study, more attention should be devoted to peatland drainage schemes in integrated groundwater management of esker aquifers.

  3. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  4. Vulnerability to uncertain climate change scenarios: implications for water resources management in two Mediterranean watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, J. P.

    2009-04-01

    Water resource consumption in Mediterranean basins is often dominated by irrigation. Climate change is expected to increase pressure on available resources, due to a decrease in total rainfall coupled with an increase in irrigation water demands due to higher temperatures. This pressure needs to be quantified in order to allow water resource managers to adapt to the impacts of climate change; this is made difficult, however, by the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. This work addressed this uncertainty by using synthetic climate change scenarios covering a good part of climate change scenarios predicted by climate models (temperature increases from 1.6 to 6.4 °C, rainfall decreases from -2.5% to -40%). The SWAT hydrological model was applied to assess changes to water resource availability in the Portuguese part of two large Mediterranean basins, the Guadiana and the Tejo, where water is used mostly (80 to 90%) for irrigation. Changes to water demand in irrigated areas were evaluated, for the same scenarios, using the FAO method, and taking into account adaptation through precision irrigation methods. Supply and demands were compared both for average years and droughts with a 5 year return period, in order to identify changes to the frequency of severe water stress and water shortfall years. The results of this work indicate that climate change would significantly impair the capacity of the Guadiana river basin for sustaining current water uses, with severe water stress coupled with water shortage during drought years predicted for low magnitude climate change; and permanent water shortfalls occurring for high magnitude climate changes. The Tejo basin showed a greater capacity to sustain water uses under climate change, except during 5-year droughts which could lead to severe water stress. However, the water management system in this basin might need to be redesigned in order to cope with these stress periods. In short, the results indicate that there is a greater resilience to climate change on the Tejo basin where severe water stress is not expected for lower magnitudes of climate change. The results also indicate that, in both cases, the adoption of precision irrigation methods only allows for a relatively small margin of adaptation.

  5. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation campaign and the beginning of next year water allocation negotiation processes. From the evolution of the risk profile of the system along the time we can define more approximately the current drought scenario. We applied the methodology presented to the Orbigo River Basin in Spain with promising results.

  6. Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.

    PubMed

    Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

    2013-10-15

    A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

  7. Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, T.R.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  8. Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

    2011-12-01

    There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

  9. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part 922 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to... National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt. P, App. II Appendix II to Subpart P of Part...

  10. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

  11. Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Necmioglu, Ocal; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana; Aksari, Dogan; Koseoglu, Aysegul; Ozer, Ceren; Comoglu, Mustafa; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Wächter, Joachim

    2013-04-01

    On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI. KOERI, representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (TWP) responsibilities for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Based on this profound experience KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios in the context of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS activities. However, KOERI's, most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria in order to meet ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for a hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situation in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise. Experiences and results gained with the TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported.

  12. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  13. Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

  14. A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process. PMID:23311826

  15. Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single-Family Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Cummings, James; Withers, Charles; Martin, Eric; Moyer, Neil

    2012-10-01

    This report is a revision of an earlier report titled: Measure Guideline: Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single-Family Homes. Revisions include: Information in the text box on page 1 was revised to reflect the most accurate information regarding classifications as referenced in the 2012 International Residential Code. “Measure Guideline” was dropped from the title of the report. An addition was made to the reference list.

  16. Preliminary Analysis of Perfusionists’ Strategies for Managing Routine and Failure Mode Scenarios in Cardiopulmonary Bypass

    PubMed Central

    Power, Gerald; Miller, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Abstract: Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is a complex task requiring high levels of practitioner expertise. Although some education standards exist, few are based on an analysis of perfusionists’ problem-solving needs. This study shows the efficacy of work domain analysis (WDA) as a framework for analyzing perfusionists’ conceptualization and problem-solving strategies. A WDA model of a CPB circuit was developed. A high-fidelity CPB simulator (Manbit) was used to present routine and oxygenator failure scenarios to six proficient perfusionists. The video-cued recall technique was used to elicit perfusionists’ conceptualization strategies. The resulting recall transcripts were coded using the WDA model and analyzed for associations between task completion times and patterns of conceptualization. The WDA model developed was successful in being able to account for and describe the thought process followed by each participant. It was also shown that, although there was no correlation between experience with CPB and ability to change an oxygenator, there was a link between the between specific thought patterns and the efficiency in undertaking this task. Simulators are widely used in many fields of human endeavor, and in this research, the attempt was made to use WDA to gain insights into the complexities of the human thought process when engaged in the complex task of conducting CPB. The assumption that experience equates with ability is challenged, and rather, it is shown that thought process is a more significant determinant of success when engaged in complex tasks. WDA analysis in combination with a CPB simulator may be used to elucidate successful strategies for completing complex tasks. PMID:17972450

  17. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials. PMID:23369357

  18. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  19. Tools for primary care management of inflammatory bowel disease: Do they exist?

    PubMed Central

    Bennett, Alice L; Munkholm, Pia; Andrews, Jane M

    2015-01-01

    Healthcare systems throughout the world continue to face emerging challenges associated with chronic disease management. Due to the likely increase in chronic conditions in the future it is now vital that cooperation and support between specialists, generalists and primary health care physicians is conducted. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is one such chronic disease. Despite specialist care being essential, much IBD care could and probably should be delivered in primary care with continued collaboration between all stakeholders. Whilst most primary care physicians only have few patients currently affected by IBD in their caseload, the proportion of patients with IBD-related healthcare issues cared for in the primary care setting appears to be widespread. Data suggests however, that primary care physician’s IBD knowledge and comfort in management is suboptimal. Current treatment guidelines for IBD are helpful but they are not designed for the primary care setting. Few non-expert IBD management tools or guidelines exist compared with those used for other chronic diseases such as asthma and scant data have been published regarding the usefulness of such tools including IBD action plans and associated supportive literature. The purpose of this review is to investigate what non-specialist tools, action plans or guidelines for IBD are published in readily searchable medical literature and compare these to those which exist for other chronic conditions. PMID:25914455

  20. A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

  1. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

  2. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET) structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Johanson, Richard B; Menon, Vijay; Burns, Ethel; Kargramanya, Eduard; Osipov, Vardges; Israelyan, Musheg; Sargsyan, Karine; Dobson, Sarah; Jones, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET)) and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia). Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188) than before (85–129.5). In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery). Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review. PMID:12020355

  3. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    PubMed

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest ecosystems over the future. PMID:26522278

  4. Configuration Data Management (CDM) on a Shoestring Identifying and Utilizing an Existing Configuration and Data Management Infrastructure

    SciTech Connect

    VANN, J.M.

    2000-09-25

    The spreading need for and use of configuration and data management (CDM) standards has highlighted a number of challenges to the companies that need to implement those standards. For companies and organizations that are new to CDM or have limited CDM capabilities, one of the major dilemmas faced is identifying how and where to start. In many cases there is a need to contend with a legacy of poorly identified items and information and an immature or non-existent CDM infrastructure (processes, procedures, people, and information systems). To the company management and CDM professional this poses a seemingly insurmountable task of putting in place a CDM infrastructure that provides the needed benefits while keeping within an acceptable cost and schedule. This paper deals with initially establishing the CDM infrastructure using the tools that a company already has available. The paper identifies features of common software applications that can be used to implement CDM principles.

  5. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

  6. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration in the southwest

  7. Behavioral and environmental influences on fishing rewards and the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for large tropical rivers.

    PubMed

    Hallwass, Gustavo; Lopes, Priscila F M; Juras, Anastácio A; Silvano, Renato A M

    2013-10-15

    Identifying the factors that influence the amount of fish caught, and thus the fishers' income, is important for proposing or improving management plans. Some of these factors influencing fishing rewards may be related to fishers' behavior, which is driven by economic motivations. Therefore, those management rules that have less of an impact on fishers' income could achieve better acceptance and compliance from fishers. We analyzed the relative influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on fish catches (biomass) in fishing communities of a large tropical river. We then used the results from this analysis to propose alternative management scenarios in which we predicted potential fishers' compliance (high, moderate and low) based on the extent to which management proposals would affect fish catches and fishers' income. We used a General Linear Model (GLM) to analyze the influence of environmental (fishing community, season and habitat) and socioeconomic factors (number of fishers in the crew, time spent fishing, fishing gear used, type of canoe, distance traveled to fishing grounds) on fish catches (dependent variable) in 572 fishing trips by small-scale fishers in the Lower Tocantins River, Brazilian Amazon. According to the GLM, all factors together accounted for 43% of the variation in the biomass of the fish that were caught. The behaviors of fishers' that are linked to fishing effort, such as time spent fishing (42% of the total explained by GLM), distance traveled to the fishing ground (12%) and number of fishers (10%), were all positively related to the biomass of fish caught and could explain most of the variation on it. The environmental factor of the fishing habitat accounted for 10% of the variation in fish caught. These results, when applied to management scenarios, indicated that some combinations of the management measures, such as selected lakes as no-take areas, restrictions on the use of gillnets (especially during the high-water season) and individual quotas larger than fishers' usual catches, would most likely have less impact on fishers' income. The proposed scenarios help to identify feasible management options, which could promote the conservation of fish, potentially achieving higher fishers' compliance. PMID:23764509

  8. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  9. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

    PubMed

    Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. PMID:25837786

  10. Night of the living color: horror scenarios in color management land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammens, Johan M.

    1998-12-01

    An ICC-based color management is becoming increasingly feasible and its picking up support from all the major high end design and pre-press applications as well as hardware manufacturers. In addition, the new sRGB standard is emerging as a way to effectively do 'color management for the masses', and is being supported by many leading manufacturers as well. While there certainly remain serious technical issues to address for both ICC and sRGB color management, it seems that the main problem users are facing today is how to integrate all components of their workflow into a seamless system, and how to configured each component to work well with all the others. This paper takes a brief look at the history of color management for a workflow perspective, and attempts to analyze how to compose and configured a quadruple color conversions can become a terrific nightmare. Some of the many ways to get the wrong results are briefly illustrated, as well as a few ways to get the right results. Finally, some technical recommendations are offered for how to improve the situation from a user point of view.

  11. Effectiveness of alternative management scenarios on the sediment load in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The AnnAGNPS model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management Practices (MPs) on soil erosion and sediment load in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2) located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was previously calibrated and validated using f...

  12. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the restrictions on study sites by nature conversation on the maps data about nature protected objects and buffer zones or forming restricted areas around those objects. The results will indicate the utilization possibility and most sustainable scenarios for different land use cases. Moreover, the possible changes in soil functioning accordingly to site specific soil conditions will be discussed and presented.

  13. Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 solar radiation management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Ben; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the effectiveness and the regional inequalities of solar radiation management (SRM) in compensating for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze the results from Earth System Models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Each experiment produces 50 model yrs of simulations: 13 models completed experiment G1 (offsetting 4 × CO2 via solar reduction); 12 models completed experiment G2 (offsetting CO2 that increased by 1% per year); 3 models completed experiment G3 (offsetting increasing radiative forcing under RCP4.5 with increasing stratospheric aerosol); and 7 models completed experiment G4 (injection of 5 Tg SO2 a- 1 into the stratosphere). The regional inequalities in temperature and precipitation compensation for experiments G1, G3 and G4 are significantly different from their corresponding noise backgrounds for most models, but for G2 they are not significantly different from noise. Differences in the regional inequalities and the actual effectiveness among the four SRM scenarios are not significant for many models. However, in more than half of the models, the effectiveness for temperature in the solar dimming geoengineering scenarios (G1 and G2) is significantly higher than that in the SO2 geoengineering scenarios (G3 and G4). The effectiveness of the four SRM experiments in compensating for temperature change is considerably higher than for precipitation. The methodology used highlights that a large across-model variation in the treatment of key geoengineering processes (such as stratospheric aerosols) and the quantification of damage caused by climate change creates significant uncertainties in any strategies to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness across different regions.

  14. Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, D. G.

    2003-02-26

    This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances.

  15. Management dilemma in penetrating head injuries in comatose patients: Scenario in underdeveloped countries

    PubMed Central

    Wani, Abrar Ahad; Ramzan, Altaf Umar; Dar, Tanveer Iqbal; Malik, Nayil K.; Khan, Abdul Quyoom; Wani, Mohd Afzal; Alam, Shafeeq; Nizami, Furqan A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The optimal management of patients with minimal injury to brain has been a matter of controversy and this is especially intensified when the patient has a poor neurological status. This is important in the regions where neurosurgical services are limited and patient turnover is disproportionate to the available resources. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of aggressive management in coma patients after penetrating missile injuries of the brain. Methods: All the patients of gunshots or blast injuries were included if they had a Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 8 after initial resuscitation and had no other injury that could explain their poor neurological status. The indication for emergency surgery was evidence of a mass lesion causing a significant mass effect; otherwise, debridement was done in a delayed fashion. The patients who were not operated were those with irreversible shock or having small intracranial pellets with no significant scalp wounds. The patients who had a Glasgow outcome score of 1, 2, or 3 were classified as having an unfavorable outcome (UO) and those with scores 4 and 5 were classified as having a favorable outcome (FO). Results: We operated 13 patients and the rest 13 were managed conservatively. The characteristics of the patients having a favorable outcome were young age (OR = 28, P = 0 .031), normal hemodynamic status (OR = 18, P = 0.08), presence of pupillary reaction (OR = 9.7, P = 0.1), and injury restricted to one hemisphere only (OR = 15, P = 0.07). All of the patients who were in shock after resuscitation died while 25% of the patients with a normal hemodynamic status had a favorable outcome. Conclusions: In developing countries with limited resources, the patients who are in a comatose condition after sustaining penetrating missile injuries should not be managed aggressively if associated with bihemispheric damage, irreversible shock, or bilateral dilated nonreacting pupils. This is especially important in the event of receiving numerous patients with the same kind of injuries. PMID:23050203

  16. The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenario analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazzari, P.; Mattia, G.; Solidoro, C.; Salon, S.; Crise, A.; Zavatarelli, M.; Oddo, P.; Vichi, M.

    2014-07-01

    The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher.

  17. A web tool for STORET/WQX water quality data retrieval and Best Management Practice scenario suggestion.

    PubMed

    Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A; Kim, Jonggun; Theller, Larry; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Merwade, Venkatesh; Lim, Kyoung Jae

    2015-03-01

    Total Maximum Daily Load is a water quality standard to regulate water quality of streams, rivers and lakes. A wide range of approaches are used currently to develop TMDLs for impaired streams and rivers. Flow and load duration curves (FDC and LDC) have been used in many states to evaluate the relationship between flow and pollutant loading along with other models and approaches. A web-based LDC Tool was developed to facilitate development of FDC and LDC as well as to support other hydrologic analyses. In this study, the FDC and LDC tool was enhanced to allow collection of water quality data via the web and to assist in establishing cost-effective Best Management Practice (BMP) implementations. The enhanced web-based tool provides use of water quality data not only from the US Geological Survey but also from the Water Quality Portal for the U.S. via web access. Moreover, the web-based tool identifies required pollutant reductions to meet standard loads and suggests a BMP scenario based on ability of BMPs to reduce pollutant loads, BMP establishment and maintenance costs. In the study, flow and water quality data were collected via web access to develop LDC and to identify the required reduction. The suggested BMP scenario from the web-based tool was evaluated using the EPA Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load model to attain the required pollutant reduction at least cost. PMID:25460420

  18. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...SANCTUARY PROGRAM REGULATIONS Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt...Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Key Largo-Management Area [Based on differential...45? N 80 deg.12?00? W. Looe Key Management Area [Based on...

  19. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...SANCTUARY PROGRAM REGULATIONS Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt...Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Key Largo-Management Area [Based on differential...45? N 80 deg.12?00? W. Looe Key Management Area [Based on...

  20. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...SANCTUARY PROGRAM REGULATIONS Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt...Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Key Largo-Management Area [Based on differential...45? N 80 deg.12?00? W. Looe Key Management Area [Based on...

  1. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...SANCTUARY PROGRAM REGULATIONS Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt...Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Key Largo-Management Area [Based on differential...45? N 80 deg.12?00? W. Looe Key Management Area [Based on...

  2. 15 CFR Appendix II to Subpart P of... - Existing Management Areas Boundary Coordinates

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...SANCTUARY PROGRAM REGULATIONS Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Pt. 922, Subpt...Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Key Largo-Management Area [Based on differential...45? N 80 deg.12?00? W. Looe Key Management Area [Based on...

  3. Development of Energy Consumption Database Management System of Existing Large Public Buildings 

    E-print Network

    Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Sun, D.

    2006-01-01

    The statistic data of energy consumption are the base of analyzing energy consumption. The scientific management method of energy consumption data and the development of database management system plays an important role in building energy...

  4. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co-benefits contribute to a coherent ecosystem-based adaptation strategy promoting landscape resilience at the landscape scale.

  5. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in tur

  6. From Eutrophic to Mesotrophic: Modelling Watershed Management Scenarios to Change the Trophic Status of a Reservoir

    PubMed Central

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-01-01

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making. PMID:24625620

  7. Integrated mitigation and solar radiation management scenarios under combined climate guardrails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stankoweit, Marius; Schmidt, Hauke; Roshan, Elnaz; Pieper, Patrick; Held, Hermann

    2015-04-01

    In addition to the climate policy options 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' solar radiation management (SRM) has been put on the agenda. As SRM costs are comparably low compared to mitigation costs, including SRM risks in the analysis proves essential. In our contribution we focus on precipitation pattern changes as potential side-effects of SRM and perform an integrated mitigation-SRM-based analysis on the basis of economic welfare optimization, constrained by climate guardrails. We define a tolerable scale of precipitation changes by the anomalies that would have been tolerated under a temperature target. Given that metric and a temperature target, by utilizing the integrated assessment model MIND, we derive the cost reduction, induced by including the additional option of SRM. We show that the cost reduction is a strong function of the fraction of Giorgi regions, for which we require compliance with the newly defined SRM guardrail. Compliance with all Giorgi regions might eliminate most of the economic gain achievable through SRM. The effects of alternative parameterizations of the SRM-precipitation pattern change influence chain are discussed.

  8. Existing capacity to manage pharmaceuticals and related commodities in East Africa: an assessment with specific reference to antiretroviral therapy

    PubMed Central

    Waako, Paul J; Odoi-adome, Richard; Obua, Celestino; Owino, Erisa; Tumwikirize, Winnie; Ogwal-okeng, Jasper; Anokbonggo, Willy W; Matowe, Lloyd; Aupont, Onesky

    2009-01-01

    Background East African countries have in the recent past experienced a tremendous increase in the volume of antiretroviral drugs. Capacity to manage these medicines in the region remains limited. Makerere University, with technical assistance from the USAID supported Rational Pharmaceutical Management Plus (RPM Plus) Program of Management Sciences for Health (MSH) established a network of academic institutions to build capacity for pharmaceutical management in the East African region. The initiative includes institutions from Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda and aims to improve access to safe, effective and quality-assured medicines for the treatment of HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria through spearheading in-country capacity. The initiative conducted a regional assessment to determine the existing capacity for the management of antiretroviral drugs and related commodities. Methods Heads and implementing workers of fifty HIV/AIDS programs and institutions accredited to offer antiretroviral services in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda were key informants in face-to-face interviews guided by structured questionnaires. The assessment explored categories of health workers involved in the management of ARVs, their knowledge and practices in selection, quantification, distribution and use of ARVs, nature of existing training programs, training preferences and resources for capacity building. Results Inadequate human resource capacity including, inability to select, quantify and distribute ARVs and related commodities, and irrational prescribing and dispensing were some of the problems identified. A competence gap existed in all the four countries with a variety of healthcare professionals involved in the supply and distribution of ARVs. Training opportunities and resources for capacity development were limited particularly for workers in remote facilities. On-the-job training and short courses were the preferred modes of training. Conclusion There is inadequate capacity for managing medicines and related commodities in East Africa. There is an urgent need for training in aspects of pharmaceutical management to different categories of health workers. Skills building activities that do not take healthcare workers from their places of work are preferred. PMID:19272134

  9. Unisys' experience in software quality and productivity management of an existing system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Munson, John B.

    1988-01-01

    A summary of Quality Improvement techniques, implementation, and results in the maintenance, management, and modification of large software systems for the Space Shuttle Program's ground-based systems is provided.

  10. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes. Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  11. Quality Assurance Strategy for Existing Homes: Final Quality Management Primer for High Performing Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Del Bianco, M.; Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-12-01

    This guide is designed to help Building America (BA) Teams understand quality management and its role in transitioning from conventional to high performance home building and remodeling. It explains what quality means, the value of quality management systems, the unique need for QMS when building high performing homes, and the first steps to a implementing a comprehensive QMS. This document provides a framework and context for BA teams when they encounter builders and remodelers.

  12. Managing the Drivers of Air Flow and Water Vapor Transport in Existing Single Family Homes (Revised)

    SciTech Connect

    Cummings, J.; Withers, C.; Martin, E.; Moyer, N.

    2012-10-01

    This document focuses on managing the driving forces which move air and moisture across the building envelope. While other previously published Measure Guidelines focus on elimination of air pathways, the ultimate goal of this Measure Guideline is to manage drivers which cause air flow and water vapor transport across the building envelope (and also within the home), control air infiltration, keep relative humidity (RH) within acceptable limits, avoid combustion safety problems, improve occupant comfort, and reduce house energy use.

  13. Wireworms’ Management: An Overview of the Existing Methods, with Particular Regards to Agriotes spp. (Coleoptera: Elateridae)

    PubMed Central

    Barsics, Fanny; Haubruge, Eric; Verheggen, François J.

    2013-01-01

    Wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) are important soil dwelling pests worldwide causing yield losses in many crops. The progressive restrictions in the matter of efficient synthetic chemicals for health and environmental care brought out the need for alternative management techniques. This paper summarizes the main potential tools that have been studied up to now and that could be applied together in integrated pest management systems and suggests guidelines for future research. PMID:26466799

  14. Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maffei, A. R.; Chandler, C. L.; Work, T.; Allen, J.; Groman, R. C.; Fox, P. A.

    2009-12-01

    Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an existing, relational database containing oceanographic metadata, along with an existing interface coded in Cold Fusion middleware, to a Drupal6 Content Management System. The goal was to translate all the existing database tables, input forms, website reports, and other features present in the existing system to employ Drupal CMS features. The replacement features include Drupal content types, CCK node-reference fields, themes, RDB, SPARQL, workflow, and a number of other supporting modules. Strategic use of some Drupal6 CMS features enables three separate but complementary interfaces that provide access to oceanographic research metadata via the MySQL database: 1) a Drupal6-powered front-end; 2) a standard SQL port (used to provide a Mapserver interface to the metadata and data; and 3) a SPARQL port (feeding a new faceted search capability being developed). Future plans include the creation of science ontologies, by scientist/technologist teams, that will drive semantically-enabled faceted search capabilities planned for the site. Incorporation of semantic technologies included in the future Drupal 7 core release is also anticipated. Using a public domain CMS as opposed to proprietary middleware, and taking advantage of the many features of Drupal 6 that are designed to support semantically-enabled interfaces will help prepare the BCO-DMO database for interoperability with other ecosystem databases.

  15. Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations—teachers and nurses—that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0.5%) in chronic “trait” anxiety. A similar pattern was found for coping skills: both treatments were able to significantly increase most coping skills, but only EG participants reported a significant increase (EG=14% vs CG=0.3%) in the Emotional Support skill. Conclusions Our findings provide initial evidence that the Interreality protocol yields better outcomes than the traditionally accepted gold standard for psychological stress treatment: CBT. Consequently, these findings constitute a sound foundation and rationale for the importance of continuing future research in technology-enhanced protocols for psychological stress management. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01683617; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01683617 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6QnziHv3h). PMID:25004803

  16. 75 FR 17913 - Maintenance and Vegetation Management Along Existing Western Area Power Administration...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-08

    .... The proposal covers existing transmission lines located on National Forest System lands in Colorado... interacting with energized transmission lines, and to reduce the potential impact of wildfires on the transmission lines. Forest Service authorizations, issued under 36 CFR 251.54, for Western's use of...

  17. Does Interdisciplinarity Exist behind the Facade of Traditional Disciplines? A Study of Natural Resource Management Teaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pharo, Emma; Bridle, Kerry

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the hypothesis that interdisciplinarity is being explicitly taught behind the facade of traditional disciplines. We interviewed 14 academics (seven geographers and seven agricultural scientists) about their teaching in the inherently interdisciplinary field of natural resource management. Our teachers were generally well informed…

  18. Research on solid waste management system: To improve existing situation in Corlu Town of Turkey

    SciTech Connect

    Tinmaz, Esra . E-mail: idemir@itu.edu.tr

    2006-07-01

    Over the past decades, uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in environmental problems in Corlu Town, Turkey. One of the most important problems is solid waste due to inadequate management practices. Nowadays, increasing public awareness of the environment compels local authorities to define and to adopt new solutions for waste management. This paper presents a general overview of current solid waste management practices in Corlu Town and principles of the recommended municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. In Corlu, 170 tonnes of municipal solid waste are generated each day, or 1.150 kg per capita per day. Approximately one-half of the municipal solid waste generated is organic material and 30% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of municipal solid waste, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. This study also analyzed the recommended system with respect to feasibility and economics. To evaluate whether the suggested system is cost effective or not, the operating cost of the recommended system and market prices of recyclable materials were compared, and the results show that the recommended system will reduce required landfill volume up to 27% of compared to the present situation. The profit of the recommended system is estimated to be about 80 million US dollars.

  19. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  20. Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research. Consequently, further detailed research has begun specifically into the impacts from secondary effects in an effort to further increase resilience to future events.

  1. On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale, accurate predictions cannot be made. What can be provided at best are reasonable scenarios, which describe a set of plausible trajectories based on the best information available about the present trends and specific assumptions about future evolution of the system. Scenarios thus give a better indication of the range of plausible futures than analyses based solely on aleatory uncertainty of present trends. Unfortunately, applying this approach to the coastal zone often emphasizes the large uncertainties and wide range of plausible futures (particularly if a realistic variety of assumptions is considered). We have developed an observation-based approach to scenarios for future local sea levels which allows us to consider a wide range of assumptions concerning the main contributions (vertical land motion, steric changes in the ocean volume, atmospheric circulation changes, and ocean-ice mass exchange) and thus to assess the full range of plausible futures a given location might be facing, including the associated uncertainties. We will demonstrate the approach for three example locations (Venice, New Orleans, Boston) and discuss the relative weight of the uncertainties in the forcing factors at these locations. Communicating the range of plausible futures and the uncertainties to decision makers in a proper way is a key problem that we as scientists too often tend to ignore.

  2. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    PubMed Central

    Davey, Sanjeev; Davey, Anuradha

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Currently, many cheaper “practice management software” (PMS) are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods: First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009) guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst) software using binary random effects (REs) model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results: Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100–226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85). The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion: Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system. PMID:25949969

  3. An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, N. J.; Schulze, R. E.

    The need to improve smallholder rainfed maize production in a sustainable manner is important in South Africa, as maize is a staple food to the rural indigenous population. Smallholder maize production is often characterised by low yields, which are often significantly lower than the potential for the land. However, sustainable maize production is not only a question of yields, but also of protection of the environmental resource base, social welfare, and the livelihoods of farmers as well as adjacent rural and urban communities. Sustainability for the smallholder farmer raises questions of household food security, farmer and community well-being as well as agro-ecosystem integrity. Sustainability was assessed at the smallholder agro-ecosystem scale using a goal-orientated sustainability framework. The use of the physically based CERES-Maize crop model within the sustainability framework meant that agro-ecosystem responses to different management options (e.g. tillage systems and fertiliser application) and climate change scenarios could be quantified. The agro-ecosystem that has been simulated is at Potshini village, which is about 10 km from Bergville in the western-central region of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The agro-ecosystem was simulated for different management strategies for a range of plausible future climate scenarios for South Africa. The future climate scenarios of ‘2 × CO 2’ and ‘2 × CO 2 + 10%rain’ had the biggest positive effect on mean grain yield. These scenarios had increases of over 1000 kg/ha with inorganic fertiliser and ?200 kg/ha with manure. The largest negative effects on yield are with the ‘+2 °C’ scenario. The biggest increase in losses of organic nitrogen were with the ‘2 × CO 2 + 2 °C’ scenario where losses increased by up to 5%.

  4. Software Health Management: A Short Review of Challenges and Existing Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pipatsrisawat, Knot; Darwiche, Adnan; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Schumann, Johann

    2009-01-01

    Modern spacecraft (as well as most other complex mechanisms like aircraft, automobiles, and chemical plants) rely more and more on software, to a point where software failures have caused severe accidents and loss of missions. Software failures during a manned mission can cause loss of life, so there are severe requirements to make the software as safe and reliable as possible. Typically, verification and validation (V&V) has the task of making sure that all software errors are found before the software is deployed and that it always conforms to the requirements. Experience, however, shows that this gold standard of error-free software cannot be reached in practice. Even if the software alone is free of glitches, its interoperation with the hardware (e.g., with sensors or actuators) can cause problems. Unexpected operational conditions or changes in the environment may ultimately cause a software system to fail. Is there a way to surmount this problem? In most modern aircraft and many automobiles, hardware such as central electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components are monitored by IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) systems. These systems can recognize, isolate, and identify faults and failures, both those that already occurred as well as imminent ones. With the help of diagnostics and prognostics, appropriate mitigation strategies can be selected (replacement or repair, switch to redundant systems, etc.). In this short paper, we discuss some challenges and promising techniques for software health management (SWHM). In particular, we identify unique challenges for preventing software failure in systems which involve both software and hardware components. We then present our classifications of techniques related to SWHM. These classifications are performed based on dimensions of interest to both developers and users of the techniques, and hopefully provide a map for dealing with software faults and failures.

  5. PERSPECTIVES Scenarios &

    E-print Network

    on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" #122 0 0 6 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy Technology/speech/2006/ramsay/etp_tokyo.pdf #12;INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ENERGIE G8

  6. Hydrogeologic data for existing excavations and the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The Special Projects Section of Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Co., Inc. is responsible for characterizing the subsurface geology and hydrology of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Waste Management Division. Geologic description, in situ testing, and laboratory analyses of alluvium exposed in existing excavations are important subparts to the Area 5 Site Characterization Program designed to determine the suitability of the RWMS for disposal of low level waste mixed waste and transuranic waste. The primary purpose of the Existing Excavation Project is two-fold: first, to characterize important hydrologic properties of the near surface alluvium, thought to play an important role in the infiltration and redistribution of water and solutes through the upper unsaturated zone at the Area 5 RWMS; and second, to provide guidance for the design of future sampling and testing programs. The justification for this work comes from the state of Nevada review of the original DOE/NV Part B Permit application submitted in 1988 for disposal of mixed wastes at the RWMS. The state of Nevada determined that the permit was deficient in characterization data concerning the hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone. DOE/NV agreed with the state and proposed the study of alluvium exposed in existing excavations as one step toward satisfying these important site characterization data requirements. Other components of the site characterization process include the Science Trench Borehole and Pilot Well Projects.

  7. New formulations of existing antidepressants: advantages in the management of depression.

    PubMed

    Norman, Trevor R; Olver, James S

    2004-01-01

    For nearly 50 years, antidepressant drugs have been the first-line treatment for various forms of depression. Despite their widespread use, these medications have significant shortcomings, in particular problems of patient compliance due to adverse effects. The introduction of new formulations of existing antidepressant medications may provide patients with benefits in terms of convenience of use. As a consequence, improvements in compliance may lead to better antidepressant efficiency.An orally disintegrating formulation of mirtazapine (mirtazapine SolTab), a once-weekly formulation of fluoxetine, an enantiomer-specific formulation of citalopram (escitalopram), an extended-release formulation of venlafaxine (venlafaxine XR), a controlled-release formulation of paroxetine (paroxetine CR) and intravenous formulations of some of the newer antidepressants have all been evaluated in limited clinical trials. In this article, a review of the pharmacokinetics and clinical evaluations of these formulations is presented. While there do not appear to be major clinical advantages for the new formulations in terms of antidepressant efficacy, none of them is less efficacious than their older counterpart. Indeed, some of the new formulations are more acceptable to patients (fluoxetine once-weekly, paroxetine CR), others have pharmacokinetic advantages (venlafaxine XR, paroxetine CR), while others may have a faster onset of effect (mirtazapine SolTab, intravenous formulations). Further evaluation of some formulations is still required (mirtazapine SolTab, fluoxetine once-weekly), while others (venlafaxine XR, escitalopram) are finding widespread acceptance in clinical practice. PMID:15182220

  8. A comparative analysis of user preference-based and existing knowledge management systems attributes in the aerospace industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varghese, Nishad G.

    Knowledge management (KM) exists in various forms throughout organizations. Process documentation, training courses, and experience sharing are examples of KM activities performed daily. The goal of KM systems (KMS) is to provide a tool set which serves to standardize the creation, sharing, and acquisition of business critical information. Existing literature provides numerous examples of targeted evaluations of KMS, focusing on specific system attributes. This research serves to bridge the targeted evaluations with an industry-specific, holistic approach. The user preferences of aerospace employees in engineering and engineering-related fields were compared to profiles of existing aerospace KMS based on three attribute categories: technical features, system administration, and user experience. The results indicated there is a statistically significant difference between aerospace user preferences and existing profiles in the user experience attribute category, but no statistically significant difference in the technical features and system administration attribute categories. Additional analysis indicated in-house developed systems exhibit higher technical features and user experience ratings than commercial-off-the-self (COTS) systems.

  9. Update on the management of restless legs syndrome: existing and emerging treatment options

    PubMed Central

    Facheris, Maurizio F; Hicks, Andrew A; Pramstaller, Peter P; Pichler, Irene

    2010-01-01

    Restless legs syndrome (RLS) is a sensorimotor disorder, characterized by a circadian variation of symptoms involving an urge to move the limbs (usually the legs) as well as paresthesias. There is a primary (familial) and a secondary (acquired) form, which affects a wide variety of individuals, such as pregnant women, patients with end-stage renal disease, iron deficiency, rheumatic disease, and persons taking medications. The symptoms reflect a circadian fluctuation of dopamine in the substantia nigra. RLS patients have lower dopamine and iron levels in the substantia nigra and respond to both dopaminergic therapy and iron administration. Iron, as a cofactor of dopamine production and a regulator of the expression of dopamine type 2-receptor, has an important role in the RLS etiology. In the management of the disease, the first step is to investigate possible secondary causes and their treatment. Dopaminergic agents are considered as the first-line therapy for moderate to severe RLS. If dopaminergic drugs are contraindicated or not efficacious, or if symptoms are resistant and unremitting, gabapentin or other antiepileptic agents, benzodiazepines, or opioids can be used for RLS therapy. Undiagnosed, wrongly diagnosed, and untreated RLS is associated with a significant impairment of the quality of life. PMID:23616710

  10. Vehicle to Micro-Grid: Leveraging Existing Assets for Reliable Energy Management (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, M.; Markel, T.; O'Keefe, M.

    2010-12-01

    Fort Carson, a United States Army installation located south of Colorado Springs, Colorado, is seeking to be a net-zero energy facility. As part of this initiative, the base will be constructing a micro-grid that ties to various forms of renewable energy. To reduce petroleum consumption, Fort Carson is considering grid-connected vehicles (GCVs) such as pure electric trucks to replace some of its on-base truck fleet. As the availability and affordability of distributed renewable energy generation options increase, so will the GCV options (currently, three all-electric trucks are available on the GSA schedule). The presence of GCVs on-base opens up the possibility to utilize these vehicles to provide stability to the base micro-grid. This poster summarizes work to estimate the potential impacts of three electric vehicle grid interactions between the electric truck fleet and the Fort Carson micro-grid: 1) full-power charging without management, 2) full-power charging capability controlled by the local grid authority, and 3) full-power charge and discharge capability controlled by the local grid authority. We found that even at relatively small adoption rates, the control of electric vehicle charging at Fort Carson will aid in regulation of variable renewable generation loads and help stabilize the micro-grid.

  11. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  12. Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.

    2013-07-01

    Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

  13. Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 solar radiation management scenarios

    E-print Network

    Moore, John

    Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 solar radiation management February 2015 Available online 4 March 2015 Keywords: Solar radiation management Regional inequality inequalities of solar radiation management (SRM) in compensat- ing for simultaneous changes in temperature

  14. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

  15. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

  16. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  17. Assessing future scenarios for health care waste management using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool: A case study in the Turkish West Black Sea Region.

    PubMed

    Ciplak, Nesli

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the best possible health care waste management option in the West Black Sea Region by taking into account economic, social, environmental, and technical aspects in the concept of multi-criteria decision analysis. In the scope of this research, three different health care waste management scenarios that consist of different technology alternatives were developed and compared using a decision-making computer software, called Right Choice, by identifying various criteria, measuring them, and ranking their relative importance from the point of key stakeholders. The results of the study show that the decentralized autoclave technology option coupled with the disposal through land-filling with energy recovery has potential to be an optimum option for health care waste management system, and an efficient health care waste segregation scheme should be given more attention by the authorities in the region. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out multidisciplinary approach and the equilibrium between social, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. The methodology used in this research was developed in order to enable the decision makers to gain an increased perception of a decision problem. In general, the results and remarks of this study can be used as a basis of future planning and anticipation of needs for investment in the area of health care waste management in the region and also in developing countries that are dealing with the similar waste management problems. PMID:26211633

  18. Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some months over different years. There are no chances of overtopping of the dam during the 2020s and the 2050s under A2 and B2 scenarios. _______________________________________________________________________________KEY WORDS: Climate Model, Climate Change, Hydrological Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Tarbela Reservoir, Inflow, Outflow, Evaporation, Indus River, Calibration, Bias Correction.

  19. Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, M. S.; Coronado, C.; Miller, M. W.; Rudnick, D. T.; Stabenau, E.; Halley, R. B.; Sklar, F. H.

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year-1 and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

  20. Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the Greater Everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.

    PubMed

    Koch, M S; Coronado, C; Miller, M W; Rudnick, D T; Stabenau, E; Halley, R B; Sklar, F H

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades. PMID:25312295

  1. Climate and Management of the Colorado River: What Does the SSD Study Tell Us About Scenario Analysis?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, D. S.

    2007-12-01

    The "Severe Sustained Drought in the Southwestern US" (SSD) research project conducted between 1989-1994 focused on the likely size and distribution of water shortages in the Colorado River Basin should the most severe, long-term drought found in the tree-ring record reoccur in the modern era. The research approach, generally, was to (a) utilize tree-ring studies to reconstruct prehistoric flows, (b) select the drought from this record that was most likely to catastrophically stress the system, (c) estimate future water demand in the basin, (d) utilize institutional studies and water system modeling to identify the timing, location and magnitude of likely water shortages should this drought reoccur, (e) assess impacts and damages associated with these shortages, and (f) investigate a small set of coping strategies. Each step in this process raised a variety of technical challenges and drew upon the talents of approximately 40 researchers including engineers/hydrologists, attorneys, economists, environmental scientists, sociologists, and policy specialists. The goal was to stimulate thinking and reform prior to a drought crisis; however, the study findings were largely ignored until the recent drought crisis, and then once discovered, some of the key conclusions of the study regarding substantive issues of water shortage vulnerability and distribution were found to be inconsistent with (and thus potentially irrelevant to solving) the current drought. Understanding why some key results of the research scenario differ significantly from the current crisis is important in informing future scenario analyses. Specifically, this case study highlights the importance and difficulty of (a) effectively linking scientific modeling efforts with social analyses, and (b) linking scenario analyses to real-world policy-making settings. In this basin, improving the understanding of drought is likely less about improved scholarship in climate and hydrology, and more about understanding the role of water demand, risk allocation, legal and political uncertainties, distorted economic incentives, and the lack of adequate forums, tools and incentives for dispute resolution. Until the institutional problems are better understood and integrated into scientific assessments, efforts such as the SSD study are unlikely to achieve their full theoretical benefits.

  2. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

  3. Evaluation of Existing Structure and Civil Protection Management Framework in Greek Local Authorities: A Questionnaire Survey Demonstrates Why Prevention Fails

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios

    2013-04-01

    In the face of a growing number of natural disasters and the increasing costs associated with them, Europe and Greece in particular, have devoted significant efforts and resources in natural hazards mitigation during the last decades. Despite the significant legislative efforts (e.g. 1998/22/EC, 2001/792/EC, 2007/60/EC Directives, 3013/2002 Act) and even though a number of steps has been taken towards improving civil protection, recent catastrophic events have illustrated the weaknesses of current approaches. In particular, in Greece, events such as the 1999 Athens earthquake, the 2007 and 2009 wildfires have shown the inadequacy of prevention and mitigation practices. Given the enhanced civil protection responsibilities, given by the Greek national law (Acts 3013/2002, 3852/2010) to local authorities in Greece, this work analyses and evaluates the existing structure and current management framework under which local authorities function and examines their risk mitigation practices. We conducted the largest questionnaire survey regarding Civil Protections issues, among the municipalities of Greece. To this aim, this work used a innovative online tool to assess current framework. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform that acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). Through this network, municipal civil protection officials completed surveys designed to obtain and quantify information on several aspects of civil protection practices and infrastructure. In particular, the examined factors included: (i) personnel and equipment, (ii) inter-agency cooperation, (iii) training, (iv) compliance with existing regulations and (v) persistent problems encountered by civil protection departments, that prevent the effectiveness of current practices. Responses showed that civil protection personnel lack adequate training and expertise, many are overstretched with several duties, while several prevention actions are carried out by seasonal or voluntary staff. Approximately half of the heads of civil protection offices do not hold a university degree, only 27% have a relevant scientific background (geoscientists or engineers) and more than half of them are elected members and not permanent staff, implying that no continuity is secured. Inter-agency cooperation is shown to be poor and organizational learning from international practices not adequate. Half of the municipalities report that the authorization processes are too slow so that prevention actions particularly regarding forest fires are severely delayed. Existing regulations are not followed by a significant portion of municipalities since 19% have not established a civil protection office and 23% have not compiled an action plan yet. Existing action plans lack important information, present no spatial data and are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. Overall, underfunding, poor coordination of the different actors involved, lack of training and understaffing, lack of proper equipment and several other issues are held responsible by officials for preventing effectiveness of current practices. Finally, the EU emergency number 112 is widely unknown (87%). This work was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553" which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

  4. Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makino, Masayuki; Ohnishi, Atsushi

    A method of generating scenarios using differential scenaro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.

  5. Artificial neural networks applied to flow prediction scenarios in Tomebamba River - Paute watershed, for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisneros, Felipe; Veintimilla, Jaime

    2013-04-01

    The main aim of this research is to create a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that allows predicting the flow in Tomebamba River both, at real time and in a certain day of year. As inputs we are using information of rainfall and flow of the stations along of the river. This information is organized in scenarios and each scenario is prepared to a specific area. The information is acquired from the hydrological stations placed in the watershed using an electronic system developed at real time and it supports any kind or brands of this type of sensors. The prediction works very good three days in advance This research includes two ANN models: Back propagation and a hybrid model between back propagation and OWO-HWO. These last two models have been tested in a preliminary research. To validate the results we are using some error indicators such as: MSE, RMSE, EF, CD and BIAS. The results of this research reached high levels of reliability and the level of error are minimal. These predictions are useful for flood and water quality control and management at City of Cuenca Ecuador

  6. Assessing and classifying plant-related ecological risk under water management scenarios in China's Yellow River Delta Wetlands.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhifeng; Qin, Yan; Yang, Wei

    2013-11-30

    The Yellow River Delta is one of the most vigorous delta areas in the world. The wetlands in this delta are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In recent years, the Yellow River Delta Wetlands have gradually shrunk and degraded due to inadequate environmental flows. Water managers have attempted to balance the needs of the environment with the need to protect water supplies for agriculture and urban needs. Despite the need for environmental protection, a broad-scale, integrated way to characterize the degree of ecological stress in the wetlands has been lacking to date. To provide a framework for evaluating various potential water regimes, we developed a model that can be used to estimate the ecological risk for wetland plants, and used the model to determine the degree of ecological risk for different soil moisture conditions based on an ecological value at risk model that we developed and the fuzzy clustering method. The results revealed the spatial distribution of areas with high, medium, or low risks associated with water stress in the study area. These results can serve as a preliminary template to guide managers in their evaluation of water stress-related risk. PMID:24095790

  7. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    SciTech Connect

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C.; Freeman, W.

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

  8. Impacts, Effectiveness and Regional Inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 Solar Radiation Management Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the regional effectiveness of solar radiation management (SRM) to compensate for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze results from multiple earth system models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project(GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Under the solar dimming geoengineering experiments G1(4xCO2) and G2(increasing CO2 by 1% per year), global average temperature is successfully restored to pre-industrial level over 50 years simulations. However, these two SRM experiments also produce a robust global precipitation decrease. The stratospheric aerosol GeoMIP geoengineering experiment, G4 has significantly greater regional inequality and lower effectiveness for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2. G4 also has significantly larger regional inequality for compensating precipitation change than G1and G2. However, there is no significant difference between precipitation change compensation effectiveness of G4 and G2, though there is much larger across model variability in G4 results. G3 has significant greater regional inequality for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2, and has significant lower effectiveness than G1. The effectiveness of four SRMs to compensate for temperature change is much higher than for precipitation. The large cross-model variation in adjustment percentage of compensated SAT and precipitation change by SRM to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness shed a light on the uncertainty accumulation effect in optimizing compensation effectiveness of SRM.

  9. Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland

    PubMed Central

    Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

  10. A "win-win" scenario: the use of sustainable land management technologies to improve rural livelihoods and combat desertification in semi-arid lands in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mganga, Kevin; Musimba, Nashon; Nyariki, Dickson; Nyangito, Moses; Mwang'ombe, Agnes

    2014-05-01

    Dryland ecosystems support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystems goods and services globally. However, desertification continues to pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the drylands and livelihoods of communities inhabiting them. The desertification problem is well exemplified in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya which cover approximately 80% of the total land area. This study aimed to 1) determine what agropastoralists attribute to be the causes of desertification in a semi-arid land in Kenya, 2) document sustainable land management (SLM) technologies being undertaken to improve livelihoods and combat desertification, and 3) identify the factors that influence the choice of the sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Results show that agropastoralists inhabiting the semi-arid lands in southeastern Kenya mainly attribute desertification to the recurrent droughts and low amounts of rainfall. Despite the challenges posed by desertification and climate variability, agropastoralists in the study area are using a combination of SLM technologies notably dryland agroforestry using drought tolerant species (indigenous and exotic), grass reseeding using perennial native and drought tolerant grass species (vegetation reestablishment) and in-situ rainwater harvesting to improve livelihoods and by extension combat desertification. Interestingly, the choice and adoption of these SLM technologies is influenced more by the additional benefits the agropastoralists can derive from them. Therefore, it is rationale to conclude that success in dryland restoration and combating desertification lies in programs and technologies that offer a "win-win" scenario to the communities inhabiting the drylands. Key words: Agroforestry; Agropastoralists; Drylands; Grass Reseeding; Rainwater Harvesting

  11. Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2013-12-01

    This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

  12. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  13. The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.

  14. Baseline scenario(s) for muon collider proton driver

    SciTech Connect

    Jansson, Andreas; /Fermilab

    2008-07-01

    This paper gives an overview of the various muon collider scenarios and the requirements they put on the Proton Driver. The required proton power is about 4-6MW in all the scenarios, but the bunch repetition rate varies between 12 and 65Hz. Since none of the muon collider scenarios have been simulated end-to-end, it would be advisable to plan for an upgrade path to around 10MW. Although the proton driver energy is flexible, cost arguments seems to favor a relatively low energy. In particular, at Fermilab 8GeV seems most attractive, partly due to the possibility of reusing the three existing fixed energy storage rings for bunch manipulations.

  15. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  16. Preparing for Catastrophic Disasters: Application of Earth Science and Engineering Data, and Loss Scenarios for Emergency Management and Disaster Recovery Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisner, R.

    2006-12-01

    Catastrophic disasters, either man or nature caused, pose unique challenges to federal, state and local governments. The complex interactions of lifeline disruption, structural damage, and population displacement are difficult to comprehend or predict. As the preparation for and response to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illustrated, forecasting the occurrence of the event does not adequately define the complexity of the consequences. Preparing for the occurrence of a rapid onset disaster that occurs without warning creates additional challenges to the emergency management community. If the event is catastrophic, it will quickly overwhelm local, regional and state resources. The ability to comprehend the magnitude and complexity of such a disruption will also be overwhelmed. The State of California, in order to gain insights into the complexity and demands of a catastrophic earthquake event (historic events include Central California [1906, 1868], Southern California [1857], and possible future events), has partnered with the United States Geological Survey, Charles Kircher and Associates, PBS&J and FEMA to exercise and test the State's response to a catastrophic recurrence of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. As Kircher notes in his paper, USGS ground motions, enhanced structure inventories, and FEMA' loss estimation tool, HAZUS, are used to define the impact on the San Francisco Bay Region infrastructure, resources and economy. In November of 2006, this scenario will serve as the structure of a 10-county response exercise that will be played out over 36 continuous hours, replicating lifeline, communications and transportation disruption. The exercise, funded by the California Office of Homeland Security, is the first statewide catastrophic disaster response to be carried out in the State and should serve as both a model for integration of natural hazard information into homeland security planning and for developing training that addresses the complex vulnerability of our urban regions. This paper will describe the process of integrating Kircher's work into capability/capacity building and the testing of catastrophic disaster response in California; as well as the lessons, limitations and assessments of the exercise process.

  17. Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, A. E.; Fabos, J. G.; Carlozzi, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

  18. Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

    Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

  19. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum visibility across the project. One key aspect is that the tool was built for a scenario process that accounts for stakeholder input, review, comment, and concurrence. By creating well-designed opportunities for stakeholder input and concurrence and by making the scenario content easily accessible to all project personnel, we maximize the opportunities for stakeholders to both understand and agree on the concepts for how their mission is to be carried out.

  20. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  1. A Survey to Determine if Significant Differences Exist in the Scoring of Select Management Areas for Fast Food and Full Service Restaurant Managers by Two-Year Foodservice Management Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloom, Thomas A.

    A survey was conducted of students in 77 of the 144 two-year foodservice management programs in the United States to assess their knowledge of and attitudes toward fast food restaurant management as compared to full service restaurant management. A total of 1,403 students from 44 programs responded. Results indicated that the food service…

  2. Design, revision, and application of ground-water flow models for simulation of selected water-management scenarios in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, John S.; Krause, Richard E.

    2000-01-01

    Ground-water flow models of the Floridan aquifer system in the coastal area of Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida, were revised and updated to ensure consistency among the various models used, and to facilitate evaluation of the effects of pumping on the ground-water level near areas of saltwater contamination. The revised models, developed as part of regional and areal assessments of ground-water resources in coastal Georgia, are--the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model, the Glynn County area (Glynn) model, and the Savannah area (Savannah) model. Changes were made to hydraulic-property arrays of the RASA and Glynn models to ensure consistency among all of the models; results of theses changes are evidenced in revised water budgets and calibration statistics. Following revision, the three models were used to simulate 32 scenarios of hypothetical changes in pumpage that ranged from about 82 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) lower to about 438 Mgal/d higher, than the May 1985 pumping rate of 308 Mgal/d. The scenarios were developed by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division and the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission to evaluate water-management alternatives in coastal Georgia. Maps showing simulated ground-water-level decline and diagrams presenting changes in simulated flow rates are presented for each scenario. Scenarios were grouped on the basis of pumping location--entire 24-county area, central subarea, Glynn-Wayne-Camden County subarea, and Savannah-Hilton Head Island subarea. For those scenarios that simulated decreased pumpage, the water level at both Brunswick and Hilton Head Island rose, decreasing the hydraulic gradient and reducing the potential for saltwater contamination. Conversely, in response to scenarios of increased pumpage, the water level at both locations declined, increasing the hydraulic gradient and increasing the potential for saltwater contamination. Pumpage effects on ground-water levels and related saltwater contamination at Brunswick and Hilton Head Island generally diminish with increased distance from these areas. Additional development of the Upper Floridan aquifer may be possible in parts of the coastal area without affecting saltwater contamination at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island, due to the presence of two hydrologic boundaries--the Gulf Trough, separating the northern and central subareas; and the hypothesized Satilla Line, separating the central and southern subareas. These boundaries diminish pumpage effects across them; and may enable greater ground-water withdrawal in areas north of the Gulf Trough and south of the Satilla Line without producing appreciable drawdown at Brunswick or Hilton Head Island.

  3. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  4. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  5. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  6. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  7. 43 CFR 3586.2 - Existing leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) SPECIAL LEASING AREAS Sand and Gravel in Nevada § 3586.2 Existing leases. Existing sand and gravel leases may be renewed...the filing fee for renewal of existing sand and gravel leases in Nevada...

  8. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  9. Simulation and particle-tracking analysis of ground-water flow near the Savannah River site, Georgia and South Carolina, 2002, and for selected ground-water management scenarios, 2002 and 2020

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cherry, Gregory S.

    2006-01-01

    Ground-water flow under 2002 hydrologic conditions was evaluated in an eight-county area in Georgia and South Carolina near the Savannah River Site (SRS), by updating boundary conditions and pumping rates in an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground-water model. The original ground-water model, developed to simulate hydrologic conditions during 1987-92, used the quasi-three-dimensional approach by dividing the Floridan, Dublin, and Midville aquifer systems into seven aquifers. The hydrogeologic system was modeled using six active layers (A2-A7) that were separated by confining units with an overlying source-sink layer to simulate the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (layer A1). Potentiometric- surface maps depicting September 2002 for major aquifers were used to update, evaluate, and modify boundary conditions used by the earlier ground-water flow model. The model was updated using the USGS finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during 1987-92 and 2002. The specified heads in the source-sink layer A1 were lowered to reflect observed water-level declines during the 1998-2002 drought. These declines resulted in a decrease of 12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in simulated recharge or vertical inflow to the uppermost confined aquifer (Gordon, layer A2). Although ground-water pumpage in the study area has increased by 32 Mgal/d since 1995, most of this increase (17.5 Mgal/d) was from the unconfined Upper Three Runs aquifer (source-sink layer A1) with the remaining 14.5 Mgal/d assigned to the active layers within the model (A2-A7). The simulated water budget for 2002 shows a decrease from the 1987-92 model from 1,040 Mgal/d to 1,035 Mgal/d. The decreased ground-water inflows and increased ground-water withdrawal rates reduced the simulated ground-water outflow to river cells in the active layers of the model by 43 Mgal/d. The calibration statistics for all layers of the 2002 simulation resulted in a decrease in the root mean square (RMS) of the residuals from 10.6 to 8.0 feet (ft). The residuals indicate 83.3 percent of the values for the 2002 simulation met the calibration error criteria established in the original model, whereas 88.8 percent was within the specified range for the 1987-92 simulation. Simulated ground-water outflow to the Savannah River and its tributaries during water year 2002 was 560 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), or 86 percent of the observed gain in mean-annual streamflow between streamflow gaging stations at the Millhaven, Ga., and Augusta, Ga. At Upper Three Runs Creek, simulated ground-water discharge during 2002 was 110 ft3/s, or 83 percent of the observed streamflow at two streamflow gaging stations near the SRS. These results indicate that the constructed model calibrated to 1987-92 conditions and modified for 2002 dry conditions is still representative of the hydrologic system. The USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH was used to generate advective water-particle pathlines and their associated time-of-travel based on MODFLOW simulations for 1987-92, 2002, and each of four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios. The four hypothetical ground-water management scenarios represent hydrologic conditions for (1) reported pumping for 2002 and boundary conditions for an average year; (2) reported pumping for 2002 with SRS pumping discontinued and boundary conditions for an average year; (3) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for an average year; and (4) projected 2020 pumping and boundary conditions for a dry year. The MODPATH code was used in forward-tracking mode to evaluate flowpaths from areas on the SRS and in backtracking mode to evaluate further areas of previously documented trans-river flow on the Georgia side of the Savannah River. Trans-river flow is a condition in which the local head gradients might allow migration of contaminants from the SRS into the underlying aquifers and beneath the Savannah River into Georgia. More...

  10. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  11. Sensitivity and Scenario Results

    E-print Network

    Yu, Winston

    Presents the results of various scenarios using models used to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin, and discusses the policy and investment implications. The water allocations per ...

  12. Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites

    SciTech Connect

    Boice, D.C.

    1986-04-01

    Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  13. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  14. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    E-print Network

    John Ellis; Jason L. Evans; Feng Luo; Keith A. Olive

    2015-10-13

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses $m_\\chi \\lesssim 8$~TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  15. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  16. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes but also evapotranspiration process. However changes in total precipitation are highly uncertain. The six tested rainfall-runoff models project reduced flows, especially in the spring and summer seasons. Depending on the socio-economic scenarios and the area, the downstream total water needs could decrease or remain stable. Considering the present day constraints, these changes would lead to a decrease in energy production (mainly due to reduced annual inflows) and to less flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand. Results of the R²D² 2050 project suggest also that the downscaling methods still fail to reproduce some crucial aspects of the climate at regional scale. Unexpected biases are propagated along the chain of models. The key issue to simulate accurately reservoir operations under present and future climate conditions is the filling curves that depict the balance between water supply and demand. Probabilistic filling curves were calibrated here to meet the constraint on water level in summer objective nine years over ten. A large proportion of regional climates generated over the baseline period lead to unrealistic curves, pointing out higher levels of requirement in models output to assess global change impacts on water management systems like on the Durance River basin.

  17. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through to eventual disposal. By varying the specifications of the deployment scenario, the simulated annealing algorithm will seek to either minimize the value of a single objective function, or enumerate the trade-off surface between multiple competing objective functions. The available objective functions represent key stakeholder values, minimizing such important factors as high-level waste disposal burden, required uranium ore supply, relative proliferation potential, and economic cost and uncertainty. The optimization program itself is designed to be modular, allowing for continued expansion and exploration as research needs and curiosity indicate. The utility and functionality of this optimization program are demonstrated through its application to one potential fuel cycle scenario of interest. In this scenario, an existing legacy LWR fleet is assumed at the year 2000. The electric power demand grows exponentially at a rate of 1.8% per year through the year 2100. Initially, new demand is met by the construction of 1-GW(e) LWRs. However, beginning in the year 2040, 600-MW(e) sodium-cooled, fast-spectrum reactors operating in a transuranic burning regime with full recycling of spent fuel become available to meet demand. By varying the fraction of new capacity allocated to each reactor type, the optimization program is able to explicitly show the relationships that exist between uranium utilization, long-term heat for geologic disposal, and cost-of-electricity objective functions. The trends associated with these trade-off surfaces tend to confirm many common expectations about the use of nuclear power, namely that while overall it is quite insensitive to variations in the cost of uranium ore, it is quite sensitive to changes in the capital costs of facilities. The optimization algorithm has shown itself to be robust and extensible, with possible extensions to many further fuel cycle optimization problems of interest.

  18. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  19. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  20. Smoldering - The Fire Scenario 

    E-print Network

    Torero, Jose L

    2000-01-01

    of upholstered furniture and the mechanisms that control the process that transforms the weak smolder reaction occurring in the cigarette to a fire are still mostly unknown. A general description of this fire scenario and a discussion of its threats is provided...

  1. IPCC SCENARIO DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made available a consistent set of up-to-date scenarios of changes in climate and related environmental and socio-economic factors for use in climate impacts assessments. This is a link to this data through the Data Distr...

  2. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  3. Big Data Privacy Scenarios

    E-print Network

    Bruce, Elizabeth

    2015-10-01

    This paper is the first in a series on privacy in Big Data. As an outgrowth of a series of workshops on the topic, the Big Data Privacy Working Group undertook a study of a series of use scenarios to highlight the challenges ...

  4. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  5. Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.

    PubMed

    Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

    2013-11-01

    Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science. PMID:24108254

  6. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems. Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days, weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.

  7. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  8. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

  9. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  10. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  11. Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

  12. A $?$CDM bounce scenario

    E-print Network

    Yi-Fu Cai; Edward Wilson-Ewing

    2015-01-28

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  13. A ?CDM bounce scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yi-Fu; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

    2015-03-01

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  14. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  16. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  17. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  18. A minimal inflation scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Gómez, César

    2011-03-01

    We elaborate on a minimal inflation scenario based entirely on the general properties of supersymmetry breaking in supergravity models. We identify the inflaton as the scalar component of the Goldstino superfield. We write plausible candidates for the effective action describing this chiral superfield. In particular the theory depends (apart from parameters of O(1)) on a single free parameter: the scale of supersymmetry breaking. This can be fixed using the amplitude of CMB cosmological perturbations and we therefore obtain the scale of supersymmetry breaking to be 10{sup 12?14} GeV. The model also incorporates explicit R-symmetry breaking in order to satisfy the slow roll conditions. In our model the ??problem is solved without extra fine-tuning. We try to obtain as much information as possible in a model independent way using general symmetry properties of the theory's effective action, this leads to a new proposal on how to exit the inflationary phase and reheat the Universe.

  19. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  20. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  1. Robotic tele-existence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tachi, Susumu; Arai, Hirohiko; Maeda, Taro

    1989-01-01

    Tele-existence is an advanced type of teleoperation system that enables a human operator at the controls to perform remote manipulation tasks dexterously with the feeling that he or she exists in the remote anthropomorphic robot in the remote environment. The concept of a tele-existence is presented, the principle of the tele-existence display method is explained, some of the prototype systems are described, and its space application is discussed.

  2. PREPARING FOR CYBER-ATTACKS ON AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURES

    E-print Network

    Johnson, Chris

    1 PREPARING FOR CYBER-ATTACKS ON AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURES: CYBER-SAFETY SCENARIO in this area has focused on the consequences of a cyber-attack under `optimal conditions'. Very little work has revealed the underlying vulnerabilities that exist across safety-critical transportation infrastructures. 1

  3. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  4. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”? Reasonable worst case fire scenario... âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80.150 Public Contracts and Property...

  5. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”? Reasonable worst case fire scenario... âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80.150 Public Contracts and Property...

  6. Probing unification scenarios with atomic clocks

    E-print Network

    M. C. Ferreira; M. D. Julião; C. J. A. P. Martins; A. M. R. V. L. Monteiro

    2012-12-17

    We discuss the usage of measurements of the stability of nature's fundamental constants coming from comparisons between atomic clocks as a means to constrain coupled variations of these constants in a broad class of unification scenarios. After introducing the phenomenology of these models we provide updated constraints, based on a global analysis of the latest experimental results. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ${\\dot\\mu}/{\\mu}=(0.68\\pm5.79)\\ti mes10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ and for the gyromagnetic factor ${\\dot g_p}/{g_p} =(-0.72\\pm0.89)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ (both of these being at the 95 % confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios, but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

  7. Probing Unification Scenarios with Atomic Clocks

    E-print Network

    M. D. Julião; M. C. Ferreira; C. J. A. P. Martins; A. M. R. V. L. Monteiro

    2013-09-30

    We make use of the comparison between measurements of various pairs of atomic clocks to impose constraints on coupled variations of fundamental constants in severs unification scenarios. We obtain null results for the proton-to-electron mass ratio ${\\dot\\mu}/{\\mu}=(0.68\\pm5.79)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ and for the gyromagnetic factor ${\\dot g_p}/{g_p}=(-0.72\\pm0.89)\\times10^{-16}\\, {\\rm yr}{}^{-1}$ (both of these being at the 95% confidence level). These results are compatible with theoretical expectations on unification scenarios (which we briefly describe), but much freedom exists due to the presence of a degeneracy direction in the relevant parameter space.

  8. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  9. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

  10. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T; Dick Cameron

    2015-01-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  11. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  12. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  13. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  14. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  15. Infiltration under two contrasting hydrologic scenarios in Texas 

    E-print Network

    Dasgupta, Surajit

    2005-08-29

    -1 INFILTRATION UNDER TWO CONTRASTING HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS IN TEXAS by SURAJIT DASGUPTA Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... May 2005 Major Subject: Rangeland Ecology and Management INFILTRATION UNDER TWO CONTRASTING HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS IN TEXAS A Thesis by SURAJIT DASGUPTA Submitted to Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment...

  16. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission is currently in phase B and the launch is planned for 2011.

  17. An Existence without Poetry

    E-print Network

    Landsberg, Melvin

    2000-01-01

    stream_size 5522 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Landsberg_An_Existance_without_Poetry.pdf.txt stream_source_info Landsberg_An_Existance_without_Poetry.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset...=UTF-8 Melvin Landsberg Department of English University of Kansas Lawrence, Kansas 66044 Telephone (785) 749-1766 An Existence without Poetry Recently I expected to write out my...

  18. Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

  19. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  20. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  1. 36 CFR 9.33 - Existing operations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Existing operations. 9.33 Section 9.33 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT Non-Federal Oil and Gas Rights § 9.33 Existing operations. (a) Any person conducting operations on January 8, 1979 in accordance...

  2. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

  3. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  4. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  5. Global evaluation of nuclear infrastructure utilization scenarios (GENIUS)

    SciTech Connect

    unzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A.; Pasamehmetoglu, Kemal; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Oliver, Kyle M.; Turinsky, Paul J.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Hays, Ross; Stover, Tracy E.

    2007-07-01

    A new and unique fuel cycle systems code has been developed. Need for this analysis tool was established via methodical development of technical functions and requirements followed by an evaluation of existing fuel cycle codes. As demonstrated by analysis of GNEP-type scenarios, the GENIUS code discretely tracks nuclear material from beginning to end of the fuel cycle and among any number of independent regions. Users can define scenarios starting with any/all existing reactors and fuel cycle facilities or with an ideal futuristic arrangement. Development and preliminary application of GENIUS capabilities in uncertainty analysis/propagation and multi-parameter optimization have also been accomplished. (authors)

  6. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    1999-09-01

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

  7. Interpreting the IPCC emisions scenarios

    E-print Network

    Margolis, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses ...

  8. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

  9. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  10. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  11. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  12. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  13. FINAL REPORT EXPOSURE SCENARIOS FOR USE IN

    E-print Network

    FINAL REPORT EXPOSURE SCENARIOS FOR USE IN ESTIMATING RADIATION DOSES TO THE PUBLIC FROM HISTORICAL Authors: A. Iulian Apostoaei Willow E. Reed SENES Oak Ridge, Inc. July 2005 #12;Exposure Scenarios July.............................................................................................................7 3.0 Exposure Scenarios and Pathways

  14. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  15. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  16. USER ACCEPTANCE TESTING OF MOBILE PAYMENT IN VARIOUS SCENARIOS

    E-print Network

    Fong, Chi Chiu "Simon"

    combinations. To limit the scope of our study we focus on a generic architectural design of the mobile commerce development. 2 MOBILE PAYMENT SYSTEM DESIGN The Mobile Payment System [1] is designed operate with existingUSER ACCEPTANCE TESTING OF MOBILE PAYMENT IN VARIOUS SCENARIOS Simon Fong, Zhuang Yan, Henry Ho

  17. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  18. Does Unconscious Racism Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quillian, Lincoln

    2008-01-01

    This essay argues for the existence of a form of unconscious racism. Research on implicit prejudice provides good evidence that most persons have deeply held negative associations with minority groups that can lead to subtle discrimination without conscious awareness. The evidence for implicit attitudes is briefly reviewed. Criticisms of the…

  19. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  20. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13millionha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. PMID:26604078

  1. Managing Use Cases During Goal-Driven Requirements Engineering

    E-print Network

    Antón, Annie I.

    Managing Use Cases During Goal-Driven Requirements Engineering: Challenges Encountered and Lessons and scenario analysis. Keywords Scenario management, use cases, requirements engineering, goals, requirements received widespread attention including HCI, strategic management and software engineering [JBC98

  2. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (editor); Mckay, David S. (editor); Duke, Michael B. (editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  3. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  4. Description of the Scenario Machine

    E-print Network

    V. M. Lipunov; K. A. Postnov; M. E. Prokhorov; A. I. Bogomazov

    2007-09-26

    We present here an updated description of the "Scenario Machine" code. This tool is used to carry out a population synthesis of binary stars. Previous version of the description can be found at http://xray.sai.msu.ru/~mystery//articles/review/contents.html

  5. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  6. Do multineutrons exist?

    E-print Network

    N. K. Timofeyuk

    2003-01-08

    Following recent work in which events which may correspond to a bound tetraneutron ($^4$n) were observed, it is pointed out that from the theoretical perspective the two-body nucleon-nucleon (NN) force cannot by itself bind four neutrons, even if it could bind a dineutron. Unrealistic modifications of the NN force or introduction of unreaslistic four-nucleon force would be needed in order to bind the tetraneutron. The existence of other multineutron systems is discussed.

  7. Do Black Holes Exist?

    E-print Network

    J. W. Moffat

    1993-02-22

    The problem of information loss in black hole formation and the associated violations of basic laws of physics, such as conservation of energy, causality and unitarity, are avoided in the nonsymmetric gravitational theory, if the NGT charge of a black hole and its mass satisfy an inequality that does not violate any known experimental data and allows the existence of white dwarfs and neutron stars.

  8. 5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing...

  9. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian functions such as nutrient incorporation and sediment flux alterations.

  10. Review of speculative ``disaster scenarios'' at RHIC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaffe, R. L.; Busza, W.; Wilczek, F.; Sandweiss, J.

    2000-10-01

    This paper discusses speculative disaster scenarios inspired by hypothetical new fundamental processes that might occur in high-energy relativistic heavy-ion collisions. The authors estimate the parameters relevant to black-hole production and find that they are absurdly small. They show that other accelerator and (especially) cosmic-ray environments have already provided far more auspicious opportunities for transition to a new vacuum state, so that existing observations provide stringent bounds. The possibility of producing a dangerous strangelet is discussed in most detail. The authors argue that four separate requirements are necessary for this to occur: existence of large stable strangelets, metastability of intermediate size strangelets, negative charge for strangelets along the stability line, and production of intermediate size strangelets in the heavy ion environment. Both theoretical and experimental reasons why each of these appears unlikely are discussed. In particular, the authors know of no plausible suggestion for why the third or especially the fourth might be true. Given minimal physical assumptions, the continued existence of the Moon, in the form we know it, despite billions of years of cosmic-ray exposure, provides powerful empirical evidence against the possibility of dangerous strangelet production.

  11. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  12. Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality

    E-print Network

    Dougherty, Daniel J.

    Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J. We present Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios

  13. Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality

    E-print Network

    Fisler, Kathryn

    Aluminum: Principled Scenario Exploration through Minimality Tim Nelson1, Salman Saghafi1, Daniel J Aluminum, a modification of Alloy that presents only minimal scenarios: those that contain no more than is necessary. Aluminum lets users explore the scenario space by adding to scenarios and backtracking. It also

  14. Development of the ITER baseline inductive scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casper, T.; Gribov, Y.; Kavin, A.; Lukash, V.; Khayrutdinov, R.; Fujieda, H.; Kessel, C.; pre="for the"> ITER Organization,

    2014-01-01

    Sustainment of Q ˜ 10 operation with a fusion power of ˜500 MW for several hundred seconds is a key mission goal of the ITER Project. Past calculations and simulations predict that these conditions can be produced in high-confinement mode operation (H-mode) at 15 MA relying on only inductive current drive. Earlier development of 15 MA baseline inductive plasma scenarios provided a focal point for the ITER Design Review conducted in 2007-2008. In the intervening period, detailed predictive simulations, supported by experimental demonstrations in existing tokamaks, allow us to assemble an end-to-end specification of this scenario consistent with the final design of the ITER device. Simulations have encompassed plasma initiation, current ramp-up, plasma burn and current ramp-down, and have included density profiles and thermal transport models producing temperature profiles consistent with edge pedestal conditions present in current fusion experiments. These quasi-stationary conditions are maintained due to the presence of edge-localized modes that limit the edge pressure. High temperatures and densities in the pedestal region produce significant edge bootstrap current that must be considered in modelling of feedback control of shape and vertical stability. In this paper we present new results of transport simulations fully consistent with the final ITER design that remain within allowed limits for the coil system and power supplies. These self-consistent simulations increase our confidence in meeting the challenges of the ITER program.

  15. Using advanced technology repositories to accelerate simulation scenario development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trias, Eric; Mathias, Karl S.

    2002-07-01

    One of the more difficult problems facing an analyst wishing to use a simulation is the task of collecting data and transforming it into a correctly formatted scenario. Raw data is often available from a variety of sources: multi-spectral force deployment (MSFD) documents, the electronic warfare integrated reprogramming database (EWIRDB), free text documents such as intelligence reports, pre-existing simulation scenarios, and scenarios taken from other simulations. The task of transforming this data into a usable scenario involves searching for the relevant information, followed by a manual transformation of the original format to the correct simulation format. This problem can be greatly alleviated by using a combination of three technologies: automatic parser generation, repository architectures using extensible markup language (XML), and information retrieval (IR) techniques. Automatic parser generation tools like JavaCC can automatically generate source code capable of reading data sources such as old Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM) or Suppressor input files. For simulations that regularly add scenario keywords to support changing needs, this can greatly reduce redevelopment time and cost for supporting tools. The objects parsed by this source can then be encapsulated in XML and stored into a repository. Using information retrieval techniques, objects can then be queried from the repository and transformed into the appropriate format for use in a scenario.

  16. A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

    PubMed Central

    Leggett, A. J.

    1999-01-01

    I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

  17. Can wormholes exist?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatsymovsky, V.

    1994-01-01

    Renormalized vacuum expectation values of electromagnetic stress-energy tensor are calculated in the background spherically-symmetrical metric of the wormhole topology. The covariant geodesic point separation method of regularization is used. Violation of the weak energy condition at the throat of the wormhole takes place for a geometry sufficiently close to that of an infinitely long wormhole of constant radius irrespective of the detailed from of metric. This is an argument in favour of the possibility of the existence of a self-consistent wormhole in empty space maintained by vacuum field fluctuations in the wormhole's background.

  18. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state tsunami program.

  19. Brownian particle in Verlinde's scenario

    E-print Network

    Momeni, D

    2010-01-01

    In this short letter we survey the effect of the Stochastic motion of the test particle in Verlinde's scenario for gravity [arXiv:1001.0785]. We show that first of all, the equipartition theorem is valid only in long times and secondly, the Brownian's essence of the motion of test particle, modifies the Newton's 2'd law.The direct result is that the Newtonian constant has been time dependence in resemblance as [arXiv:1004.0589].

  20. Scenarios in the design process.

    PubMed

    Stoop, J

    1990-12-01

    The Safety Science Group of Delft University of Technology has developed a method by which the input of safety in the design process is structured through the application of use-scenarios and hazard patterns. The approach is illustrated with case studies in the field of agricultural equipment (pneumatic pruning shears, power chain saws and power-take-off shafts). Use-scenarios and hazard patterns result from safety problem analyses and give structure to the problem space and assist in the explanation of accidents. Selection of solutions is facilitated by a matrix scheme which links technical design options and measures of a social and organisational nature into a set of coherent measures. In the evaluation of designs, the application of use-scenarios and hazard patterns is helpful as a predictor of residual risks. Incorporating safety in the design process is a dynamic decision-making process. The decisions involved and the role of the safety expert in this process are discussed. Application of the method to the design of tools and consumer products seems very promising, although several problems remain. Valid accident data for use in the method are scarce; the technique for the translation of safety requirements into design specifications is still not fully developed and the first projects are only now being carried through to the implementation stage. PMID:15676786

  1. 30 CFR 250.304 - Existing facilities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Existing facilities. 250.304 Section 250.304 Mineral Resources BUREAU OF OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR OPERATIONS IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Pollution...

  2. Two scenarios for overcoming drug resistance by co-targeting.

    PubMed

    Taheri, Golnaz; Ayati, Marzieh; Wong, Limsoon; Eslahchi, Changiz

    2015-01-01

    Removal of proteins on an essential pathway of a pathogen is expected to prohibit the pathogen from performing a vital function. To disrupt these pathways, we consider a cut set S of simple graph G, where G representing the PPI network of the pathogen. After removing S, if the difference of sizes of two partitions is high, the probability of existence of a functioning pathway is increased. We need to partition the graph into balanced partitions and approximate it with spectral bipartitioning. We consider two scenarios: in the first, we do not have any information on drug targets; in second, we consider information on drug targets. Our databases are E. coli and C. jejuni. In the first scenario, 20% and 17% of proteins in cut of E. coli and C. jejuni are drug targets and in the second scenario 53% and 63% of proteins in cut are drug targets respectively. PMID:25667386

  3. A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keith, David W.; MacMartin, Douglas G.

    2015-03-01

    The risks and benefits of solar geoengineering, or solar radiation management (SRM), depend on assumptions about its implementation. Claims that SRM will reduce precipitation, increase ocean acidification or deplete stratospheric ozone, or that it must be continued forever once started, are not inherent features of SRM; rather, they are features of common scenarios for its implementation. Most analyses assume, for example, that SRM would be used to stop the increase in global temperature or restore temperature to pre-industrial values. We argue that these are poor scenario choices on which to base policy-relevant judgements about SRM. As a basis for further analysis, we provide a scenario that is temporary in that its end point is zero SRM, is moderate in that it offsets only half of the growth in anthropogenic climate forcing and is responsive in that it recognizes that the amount of SRM will be adjusted in light of new information.

  4. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

  5. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

  6. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

  7. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

  8. 41 CFR 102-80.150 - What is meant by “reasonable worst case fire scenario”?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...false What is meant by âreasonable worst case fire scenarioâ? 102-80.150 Section 102-80...80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire Prevention Reasonable Worst Case Fire Scenario § 102-80.150 What is meant...

  9. Why radiation belts exist

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Allen, James A.

    In this article, I describe some of the reasons for the existence of radiation belts around the Earth and other planets and some of their basic properties. A radiation belt is an important component of a larger and more complex physical system called a magnetosphere. In another article in this series [see sidebar] the similarities and differences among the diverse and dynamic planetary magnetospheres that have been investigated thus far will be discussed in a more general context.A magnetosphere is that region surrounding a planet within which the planet's intrinsic magnetic field has an important role in physical phenomena involving electrically charged particles. But even unmagnetized planets, satellites of planets, comets, and (presumably) asteroids exhibit similar rudimentary plasma physical effects. The Earth's magnetosphere extends about 10 planetary radii toward the Sun and hundreds of times that far in the direction away from the Sun. Its outer boundaries and much of its physical dynamics are attributed to the solar wind—the tenuous, ionized, magnetized gas (plasma) that flows outward from the solar corona through interplanetary space. The solar wind does not readily penetrate the geomagnetic field but compresses and confines the field around the Earth. The sunward boundary is located where the external pressure of the flowing solar wind equals the internal pressure of the geomagnetic field. A complex process of interconnection of the solar wind's magnetic field and the geomagnetic field stretches out the magnetic field in the direction away from the Sun, creating the long magnetotail.

  10. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. PMID:25976302

  11. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  12. Modelling of disaster risk scenarios at La Soufrière, Guadeloupe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Susanna; Spence, Robin; Baxter, Peter; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Barsotti, Sara; Esposti-Ongaro, Tomaso; Neri, Augusto

    2013-04-01

    As part of the CASAVA project, potential consequences of an eruption at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, have been quantified for the local population and infrastructure through development of an impact model. For a given eruption scenario, and on a 250m grid, the model incorporates hazard information about areas potentially affected by ash fall (vertical loading) and/or pyroclastic density currents (peak dynamic pressure, temperature and duration) sourced from numerical modelling able to describe the transient and 3D features of the phenomena. This is combined with vulnerability information derived from engineering and medical analyses of the exposure and response of humans and buildings to these hazards. Model outputs include maps of the numbers and severity of human casualties and building damage for each given scenario. The impact model is further coupled with a dynamic casualty management model that then tracks the rescue, transport and treatment of casualties to estimate the impact of the eruption on the emergency services and on casualty numbers with time following the eruption. This allows dynamic mapping of human survival in space and time following the eruption scenario and can be combined in GIS with emergency management data to support public officials responsible for planning for a crisis. To identify suitable actions that could be taken to reduce the loss of lives and infrastructure, the consequences from different disaster risk scenarios can be tested by varying the crisis conditions for each model run. For example, by incorporating short- and long-term mitigation activities (e.g. partial evacuation, construction of additional road capacity), differing emergency management (e.g. the location of triage centres) or simulating alternative disaster conditions (e.g. reduced rescuing capacity because of ashy conditions). The models are deliberately generic in nature and could be applied to any volcano, or to other natural hazards, providing input hazard scenarios and appropriate exposure and vulnerability data are available.

  13. Knowledge Based Crime Scenario Modelling Jeroen Keppens

    E-print Network

    Keppens, Jeroen

    Knowledge Based Crime Scenario Modelling Jeroen Keppens Department of Computer Science University to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically

  14. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-09-19

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

  15. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie, (Edited By); Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  16. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  17. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

  18. Conservation of Combinatorial Structures in Evolution Scenarios

    E-print Network

    Chauve, Cedric

    mammals. For example, in the last two years, several very interesting evolution scenarios have beenConservation of Combinatorial Structures in Evolution Scenarios Anne Bergeron, Cedric Chauve La in Evolution Scenarios Sâ??everine Bâ??erard 1 , Anne Bergeron 2 , and Cedric Chauve 2 1 LIRMM, Montpellier, France

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  20. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  1. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  2. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem. The analyses show that there will be much more water available in future under the considered emission scenarios but in some months there will be scarcity of water. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, the scarcity of water can be minimized considerably. Finally, a meta-analysis has been performed to present a combined picture of all scenarios considered in this study. One way to avoid water scarcity is to upgrade and install new reservoirs and water storage capacities to reserve the extra water during high river flow in Indus River, which will then be utilized during low river flow. __________________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Climate Change, Hydro-power, Indus River, Tarbela Reservoir, Upper Indus Basin, Meta-analysis, Hydrological model.

  3. People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times.

    PubMed

    Newby-Clark, I R; Ross, M; Buehler, R; Koehler, D J; Griffin, D

    2000-09-01

    Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affect predictions or accuracy and were consistently rated less plausible than optimistic scenarios (Experiments 1-3). Experiment 4 independently manipulated scenario plausibility and optimism. Plausibility moderated the impact of optimistic, but not pessimistic, scenarios. Experiment 5 supported a motivational explanation of the tendency to disregard pessimistic scenarios regardless of their plausibility. People took pessimistic scenarios into account when predicting someone else's completion times. The authors conclude that pessimistic-scenario generation may not be an effective debiasing technique for personal predictions. PMID:11014050

  4. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  5. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  6. Revisiting the semiclassical gravity scenario for gravitational collapse

    SciTech Connect

    Barcelo, Carlos; Liberati, Stefano; Sonego, Sebastiano; Visser, Matt

    2009-05-01

    The existence of extremely dark and compact astronomical bodies is by now a well established observational fact. On the other hand, classical General Relativity predicts the existence of black holes which fit very well with the observations, but do lead to important conceptual problems. In this contribution we ask ourselves the straightforward question: Are the dark and compact objects that we have observational evidence for black holes in the sense of General Relativity? By revising the semiclassical scenario of stellar collapse we find out that as the result of a collapse some alternative objects could be formed which might supplant black holes.

  7. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four categories: building damages, non-structural damages, damage to lifelines and infrastructure, and fire losses. The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake is modeled to cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses. These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and economic resiliency. These numbers are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done. The earthquake modeled here may never happen. Big earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are inevitable, and by geologic standards extremely common, but probably will not be exactly like this one. The next very damaging earthquake could easily be on another fault. However, lessons learned from this particular event apply to many other events and could provide benefits in many possible future events.

  8. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  9. Surgical management in treatment of Jehovah's witness in trauma surgery in Indian subcontinent

    PubMed Central

    Nishant; Kumari, Renu

    2014-01-01

    The Jehovah's Witness religion is a Christian movement, founded in the US in the 1870s, with 7 million followers worldwide with only 0.002% in India. There is minimal to complete absence of awareness about the existence of this community in our society. Astonishing is that fact that among medical professionals, there is almost no awareness about this unique population, regarding the fact that they completely refuse of blood transfusion even if it leads to their death. This is integral to their faith. Besides legal and ethical issues in treating these group of patients, the biggest challenge exist even in the western world is their management in trauma scenario where few options exist. We have discussed the issues and recommendations in management in trauma scenario in our Indian subcontinent. PMID:25114433

  10. Intellimotion Vol. 17 no. 1 2012 Integrated Construction Zone Traffic Management, Low-Cost Vehicle Detection and Communication Systems for Urban Intersections, Freeways, and Parking Lots, Extracting More Information from the Existing Freeway Traffic Monit

    E-print Network

    Intellimotion Vol. 17 no. 1 2012 Integrated Construction Zone Traffic Management, Low-Cost Vehicle Detection and Communication Systems for Urban Intersections, Freeways, and Parking Lots, Extracting More, Integrated Ramp Metering Design, Evaluation, and Optimization Platform with PARAMICS Simulations, Causes

  11. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC/POC leakage. Based on the modelling results a cost benefit analysis is performed (economics), guiding to the design of environmental policies needed for land use change to come true.

  12. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the transition to hydrogen achieves about the same reduction in CO2 emissions as a transition to advanced gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With significant carbon policy, drastic reductions in well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are possible. Energy transition modeling is a newly evolving field and much remains to be done to improve the utility of models like HyTrans.

  13. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID:24361447

  14. Co-existence of agricultural production systems.

    PubMed

    Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut

    2006-05-01

    Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism. PMID:16545877

  15. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  16. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  17. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  18. Hospitals in the year 2000: a scenario.

    PubMed

    Foster, J T

    1989-01-01

    Hospitals came into the twentieth century as creations of local, usually altruistic, interests and wrestled with accelerating change throughout the decades. Their success brought third-party financing, employee health plans, and government guarantees for charity care. Success seemed to breed success, and they raced ahead with capital investment in bricks, mortar, and high technology, only to find themselves in increasing trouble as 1990 approached. Writing from the precarious perch of the year 2000, the author views the worsening hospital situation and raises questions about the contradictions of federal interventions, the efforts to create "systems," the plight of small hospitals, and the love-hate role of medical staffs. Offered for consideration is a scenario of a health care crisis in the early 1990s comparable to the savings and loan crisis of 1988. However, this time the federal intervention is not simply in dollars, but, instead, brings on a "health for all" program with national financing and decentralized "district health" management. As in other nations of the world, hospitals become an integral part of the commitment to attack the root causes of ill health. PMID:10296999

  19. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qihong; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-05-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state w of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once w reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if w approaches a constant at t ?-?, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if w decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the emergent scenario that avoids the big bang singularity can be successfully implemented in the EC theory of gravity.

  20. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  1. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  2. Can WIMP Dark Matter overcome the Nightmare Scenario?

    E-print Network

    Shinya Kanemura; Shigeki Matsumoto; Takehiro Nabeshima; Nobuchika Okada

    2010-05-31

    Even if new physics beyond the Standard Model (SM) indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called "nightmare scenario". On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) with the mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the SM gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate a possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

  3. Framework for Model Independent Analyses of Multiple Extra Quark Scenarios

    E-print Network

    D. Barducci; A. Belyaev; M. Buchkremer; G. Cacciapaglia; A. Deandrea; S. De Curtis; J. Marrouche; S. Moretti; L. Panizzi

    2014-12-08

    In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analyses so as to set bounds on new quark resonances. In particular, we report on the re-interpretation of the existing limits on benchmark scenarios with one and multiple pair-produced top partners having non-exclusive couplings to the third Standard Model generation of quarks.

  4. Identifying Scenario Spaces, their Outliers and Redundancies, with Application to Bowhead AWMP

    E-print Network

    Givens, Geof H.

    to characterize groups of simulation trial scenarios de­ signed for testing Aboriginal Whaling Management Procedures (AWMPs). Specific features of the trials established for testing bowhead whale AWMPs are also­Chukchi­Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales, yet the ideas could be more widely applied to other management procedure

  5. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  6. The Unified First law in "Cosmic Triad" Vector Field Scenario

    E-print Network

    Yi Zhang; Yungui Gong; Zong-Hong Zhu

    2011-08-04

    In this letter, we try to apply the unified first law to the "cosmic triad" vector field scenario both in the minimal coupling case and in the non-minimalcoupling case. After transferring the non-minimally coupling action in Jordan frame to Einstein frame, the correct dynamical equation (Friedmann equation) is gotten in a thermal equilibrium process by using the already existing entropy while the entropy in the non-minimal coupled "cosmic triad" scenario has not been derived. And after transferring the variables back to Jordan frame, the corresponding Friedmann equation is demonstrated to be correct. For complete arguments, we also calculate the related Misner-Sharp energy in Jordan and Einstein frames.

  7. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

  8. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.

  9. Page 1 of 4 VCU Research FCOI Management Matrix

    E-print Network

    Hammack, Richard

    ) OR Scientific advisory board membership for the sponsoring company Baseline management* for Financial Conflict or may not be amenable to management Financial interests Page 1 of 4 3/2015 VCU Research FCOI Management Matrix Possible COI management plan scenarios

  10. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  11. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  12. CAN HYDROGEN WIN?: EXPLORING SCENARIOS FOR HYDROGEN

    E-print Network

    CAN HYDROGEN WIN?: EXPLORING SCENARIOS FOR HYDROGEN FUELLED VEHICLES by Katherine Aminta Muncaster of Research Project: Can Hydrogen Win?: Exploring Scenarios for Hydrogen Fuelled Vehicles Report No.: 459 explored the conditions under which hydrogen might succeed in Canada's transportation sector in a carbon

  13. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  14. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. PMID:23708563

  15. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized

  16. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  17. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  18. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing trees, the best scenario to reduce carbon was also rotational coppicing, due to the highest potential of CO2 reduction by woodenergy utilization. The result suggests that rotational coppicing, which mimics historical management, can also serve contemporary ends. Rotational coppicing can be promoted from the policies related to carbon reduction, but at the same time, further studies for clarifying the optimum degree of human disturbance (e.g. frequency of tree cutting, groundcover removal) are necessary to avoid negative impacts to forest ecosystems.

  19. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

  20. Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

  1. The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Savina, Marie; Condie, Scott A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives. PMID:23593432

  2. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

  3. Nipah virus infection: current scenario.

    PubMed

    Kulkarni, D D; Tosh, C; Venkatesh, G; Senthil Kumar, D

    2013-12-01

    The emergence of Nipah virus (NiV) infection into the pig population and subsequently into the human population is believed to be due to changes in ecological conditions. In Malaysia, A major NiV outbreak occurred in pigs and humans from September 1998 to April 1999 that resulted in infection of 265 and death of 105 persons. About 1.1 million pigs had to be destroyed to control the outbreak. The disease was recorded in the form of a major outbreak in India in 2001 and then a small incidence in 2007, both the outbreaks in West Bengal only in humans without any involvement of pigs. There were series of human Nipah incidences in Bangladesh from 2001 till 2013 almost every year with mortality exceeding 70 %. The disease transmission from pigs acting as an intermediate host during Malaysian and Singapore outbreaks has changed in NIV outbreaks in India and Bangladesh, transmitting the disease directly from bats to human followed by human to human. The drinking of raw date palm sap contaminated with fruit bat urine or saliva containing NiV is the only known cause of outbreak of the disease in Bangladesh outbreaks. The virus is now known to exist in various fruit bats of Pteropus as well as bats of other genera in a wider belt from Asia to Africa. PMID:24426305

  4. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  5. Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

    Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

  6. Interactive graphical timelines as collaborative scenario management tools 

    E-print Network

    Riddle, Austin Christopher

    2008-10-10

    Training emergency response decision makers using live, virtual and/or constructive simulations can be highly complex since certain situations can generate stimulusresponse cycles that depend significantly on unpredictable human judgments...

  7. Effective management of sarin exposure: simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Neil A; Hobbs, Eugene; Taekman, Jeffrey M

    2008-01-01

    Biological and chemical warfare training is often overlooked in residency programs, but is nonetheless an extremely important part of the curriculum and should be implemented before allowing residents to graduate. The purpose of this case is twofold: (1) explore the diagnosis and treatment of Sarin exposure, (2) discuss the methods of protecting against contamination with toxic agents. PMID:19088651

  8. Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots

    E-print Network

    Allan, Vicki H.

    somewhat different in combat areas, where bomb disposal robots and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have: A bomb disposal robot (left) and a UAV (right).Photographs from U.S. Air Force. The situation has been. Mars Exploration Rover ­ a semi-autonomous exploration robot. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech II

  9. Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnishi, Atsushi

    Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system’s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.

  10. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  11. Neutrino phenomenology of very low-energy seesaw scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gouvea, Andre de; Jenkins, James; Vasudevan, Nirmala

    2007-01-01

    The standard model augmented by the presence of gauge-singlet right-handed neutrinos proves to be an ideal scenario for accommodating nonzero neutrino masses. Among the new parameters of this 'new standard model' are right-handed neutrino Majorana masses M. Theoretical prejudice points to M much larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, but it has recently been emphasized that all M values are technically natural and should be explored. Indeed, M around 1-10 eV can accommodate an elegant oscillation solution to the liquid scintillator neutrino detector (LSND) anomaly, while other M values lead to several observable consequences. We consider the phenomenology of low-energy (M < or approx. 1 keV) seesaw scenarios. By exploring such a framework with three right-handed neutrinos, we can consistently fit all oscillation data--including those from LSND--while partially addressing several astrophysical puzzles, including anomalous pulsar kicks, heavy element nucleosynthesis in supernovae, and the existence of warm dark matter. In order to accomplish all of this, we find that a nonstandard cosmological scenario is required. Finally, low-energy seesaws - regardless of their relation to the LSND anomaly - can also be tested by future tritium beta-decay experiments, neutrinoless double-beta decay searches, and other observables. We estimate the sensitivity of such probes to M.

  12. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    E-print Network

    Gianmassimo Tasinato

    2015-03-03

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  13. Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water management. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedence frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate to build confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of water infrastructure plans and to foster conversations that address water sustainability issues.

  14. Enterprise mobility management (EMM): a way to increase the security of mobile devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knackmuß, Jenny; Creutzburg, Reiner

    2015-03-01

    Proactive monitoring, control and protection of critical companies data - across devices, applications, data and network, are of increasing importance in today's society. Organizations and companies are committed Enterprise Mobility Management solution to meet new and demanding requirements. The aim of this paper is to show, based on certain specific scenarios, which benefits or risks for IT infrastructures exist. The investigation shows a significant step in assessing these applications with respect to the level of protection required in enterprise networks.

  15. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  16. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. PMID:26189995

  17. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  18. Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin

    E-print Network

    Yu, Winston

    Examines the literature and available data on hydroclimatic variability and change on the Indus Basin plains, comparing historical fluctuations in climatic and hydrologic variables and reviewing scenarios of climate change ...

  19. SECTION 23 Table of Contents 23 Spokane Subbasin Inventory of Existing Programs Aquatic..................2

    E-print Network

    SECTION 23 ­ Table of Contents 23 Spokane Subbasin Inventory of Existing Programs ­ Aquatic #12;23-2 23 Spokane Subbasin Inventory of Existing Programs ­ Aquatic 23.1 Current Management and management functions for fish and wildlife resources in the Spokane Subbasin. Cooperation exists

  20. Emergent Universe Scenario via Quintom Matter

    E-print Network

    Yi-Fu Cai; Mingzhe Li; Xinmin Zhang

    2012-11-20

    The emergent universe scenario provides a possible alternative to bouncing cosmology to avoid the Big Bang singularity problem. In this paper we study the realization of the emergent universe scenario by making use of Quintom matter with an equation of state across the cosmological constant boundary. We will show explicitly the analytic and numerical solutions of emergent universe in two Quintom models, which are a phenomenological fluid and a nonconventional spinor field, respectively.

  1. Emergent universe scenario via Quintom matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yi-Fu; Li, Mingzhe; Zhang, Xinmin

    2012-12-01

    The emergent universe scenario provides a possible alternative to bouncing cosmology to avoid the Big Bang singularity problem. In this Letter we study the realization of the emergent universe scenario by making use of Quintom matter with an equation of state across the cosmological constant boundary. We will show explicitly the analytic and numerical solutions of emergent universe in two Quintom models, which are a phenomenological fluid and a nonconventional spinor field, respectively.

  2. Coherent delocalization: Views of entanglement in different scenarios

    E-print Network

    León-Montiel, R de J; Moya-Cessa, H M; Torres, J P

    2015-01-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compo...

  3. Coherent delocalization: Views of entanglement in different scenarios

    E-print Network

    R. de J. León-Montiel; A. Vallés; H. M. Moya-Cessa; J. P. Torres

    2015-07-21

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compose the system of interest.

  4. Coherent delocalization: views of entanglement in different scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    León-Montiel, R. de J.; Vallés, A.; Moya-Cessa, H. M.; Torres, J. P.

    2015-08-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compose the system of interest.

  5. Minor Actinides Transmutation Scenario Studies in PWR with Innovative Fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Grouiller, J. P.; Boucher, L.; Golfier, H.; Dolci, F.; Vasile, A.; Youinou, G.

    2003-02-26

    With the innovative fuels (CORAIL, APA, MIX, MOX-UE) in current PWRs, it is theoretically possible to obtain different plutonium and minor actinides transmutation scenarios, in homogeneous mode, with a significant reduction of the waste radio-toxicity inventory and of the thermal output of the high level waste. Regarding each minor actinide element transmutation in PWRs, conclusions are : neptunium : a solution exists but the gain on the waste radio-toxicity inventory is not significant, americium : a solution exists but it is necessary to transmute americium with curium to obtain a significant gain, curium: Cm244 has a large impact on radiation and residual power in the fuel cycle; a solution remains to be found, maybe separating it and keeping it in interim storage for decay into Pu240 able to be transmuted in reactor.

  6. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  7. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse

  8. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  9. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  10. Multiverse Scenarios in Cosmology: Classification, Cause, Challenge, Controversy, and Criticism

    E-print Network

    Ruediger Vaas

    2010-01-05

    Multiverse scenarios in cosmology assume that other universes exist "beyond" our own universe. They are an exciting challenge both for empirical and theoretical research as well as for philosophy of science. They could be necessary to understand why the big bang occurred, why (some of) the laws of nature and the values of certain physical constants are the way they are, and why there is an arrow of time. This essay clarifies competing notions of "universe" and "multiverse"; it proposes a classification of different multiverse types according to various aspects how the universes are or are not separated from each other; it reviews the main reasons for assuming the existence of other universes: empirical evidence, theoretical explanation, and philosophical arguments; and, finally, it argues that some attempts to criticize multiverse scenarios as "unscientific", insisting on a narrow understanding of falsification, is neither appropriate nor convincing from a philosophy of science point of view. -- Keywords: big bang, universe, multiverse, cosmic inflation, time, quantum gravity, string theory, laws of nature, physical constants, fine-tuning, anthropic principle, philosophy of science, metaphysics, falsificationism

  11. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect

    Guzowski, R.V. |

    1994-12-31

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments.

  12. A guide to wound managment in palliative care.

    PubMed

    Naylor, Wayne A

    2005-11-01

    Wound management in palliative patients is often a very challenging area of care. There are many unique issues that can combine to produce complicated wound management scenarios, including the types of wounds and wound symptoms most commonly affecting palliative care patients, as well as the presence of concurrent disease and associated treatment. Problems exist with the availability of suitable dressings and balancing life expectancy with the goals of wound care. A significant, and possibly under-recognized, issue is the emotional and social distress experienced by these patients, which can be directly attributed to their wound. These problems must all be recognized and addressed in order to manage wounds effectively in this patient population. This article aims to explore these issues and offer advice on the management of wound-related symptoms, with the ultimate goal of improving patients' quality of life. PMID:16471044

  13. The real world and lunar base activation scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Harrison H.

    1992-01-01

    A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

  14. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  15. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  16. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  17. The Future of Scenarios: Issues in Developing New Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-06-01

    Research, analysis and commnetary since the release of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios has suggested a number of areas, e.g. rates of economic growth, downscaling and scenario likelihood, where additional research would make the next set of scenarios of greater use and increased credibility. This essary reviews the work on the areas mentioned above and makes suggestions about possible ways to improve the next set of climate scenarios, to be developed by the research community without a specific IPCC terms of reference to guide the work.

  18. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

  19. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

  20. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  1. Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

    1997-01-01

    ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

  2. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...Alternative release scenario analysis. 68.28 Section 68...Alternative release scenario analysis. (a) The number...the RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially...still be functional. (e) Factors in selecting scenarios....

  3. Biodiversity across Scenarios Coordinating Lead Author: Osvaldo E. Sala

    E-print Network

    Pereira, Henrique Miguel

    Change across Scenarios 10.3 Freshwater Biodiversity across Biomes and Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 10.6 Opportunities for Intervention to 1970 for Different Biomes and Realms for Two Scenarios 10.5 Relative Losses of Global Vascular Plant

  4. Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilpatrick, F.A.

    1977-01-01

    On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

  5. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    E-print Network

    Huang, Qihong; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-01-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state $w$ of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once $w$ reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if $w$ approaches a constant at $t\\rightarrow -\\infty$, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if $w$ decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the eme...

  6. Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

  7. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  8. An alternative scenario for the formation of specialized protein nano-domains (cluster phases) in biomembranes

    E-print Network

    Nicolas Destainville

    2010-09-28

    We discuss a realistic scenario, accounting for the existence of sub-micrometric protein domains in cell membranes. At the biological level, such membrane domains have been shown to be specialized, in order to perform a determined biological task, in the sense that they gather one or a few protein species out of the hundreds of different ones that a cell membrane may contain. By analyzing the balance between mixing entropy and protein affinities, we propose that such protein sorting in distinct domains can be explained without appealing to pre-existing lipidic micro-phase separations, as in the lipid raft scenario. We show that the proposed scenario is compatible with known physical interactions between membrane proteins, even if thousands of different species coexist.

  9. 7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134 Section...PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955.134...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

  10. 7 CFR 1955.134 - Loss, damage, or existing defects in inventory real property.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. 1955.134 Section...PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Disposal of Inventory Property General § 1955.134...damage, or existing defects in inventory real property. (a)...

  11. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domesti

  12. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested Lands § 2812.5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An...

  13. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested Lands § 2812.5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An...

  14. 43 CFR 2812.5-3 - Bonds in connection with existing roads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (2000) TRAMROADS AND LOGGING ROADS Over O. and C. and Coos Bay Revested Lands § 2812.5-3 Bonds in connection with existing roads. An...

  15. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  16. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  17. Mining API Patterns as Partial Orders from Source Code: From Usage Scenarios to Specifications

    E-print Network

    Cortes, Corinna

    Mining API Patterns as Partial Orders from Source Code: From Usage Scenarios to Specifications with third-party libraries through var- ious APIs. Using these library APIs often needs to follow certain usage patterns. Furthermore, ordering rules (specifications) exist between APIs, and these rules govern

  18. The Existence of Myocardial Repair

    PubMed Central

    Schoenfeld, Matthew; Frishman, William H.; Leri, Annarosa; Kajstura, Jan; Anversa, Piero

    2014-01-01

    The lack of myocardial repair after myocardial infarction and the heart failure that eventually ensues was thought of as proof that myocardial cell regeneration and myocardial repair mechanisms do not exist. Recently, growing experimental and clinical evidence has proven this concept wrong. Cardiac stem cells and endogenous myocardial repair mechanisms do exist; however, they do not produce significant myocardial repair. Similarly, the preliminary results of stem cell therapy for myocardial repair have shown early promise but modest results. Preclinical studies are the key to understanding stem cell senescence and lack of cellular contact and vasculature in the infarcted region. Additional laboratory studies are sure to unlock the therapeutic mechanisms that will be required for significant myocardial repair. PMID:23568056

  19. The EXIST Mission Concept Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

    2008-01-01

    EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in scanning mode, interrupted for several orbits per day by GRB follow-ups, followed by a combined pointing-scanning mission phase for optical/IR spectroscopy and redshifts for the large AGN sample found in the survey as well as GRBs and LSST transients. A Team of university, NASA, and industry investigators will conduct the study to determine the full sensitivity and capabilities of this new configuration for EXIST. It will build on the extensive studies of the prior design for the mission and the HET and will incorporate the optical/IR telescope (hereafter IRT) now fully developed by our ITT partner for the NextView Commercial Remote Sensing mission (early 2008 launch) with a focal plane to be developed at GSFC based in part on JWST/NIRSPEC designs. No new technology is needed for either the IRT or HET instruments. The study will pay close attention to full mission cost and present a design for the Decadal Survey Workshop to ensure this even more capable EXIST mission is once again part of the next Decadal Survey.

  20. Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: a water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yong; Wang, Yilin; Sheng, Hu; Dong, Feifei; Zou, Rui; Zhao, Lei; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhu, Xiang; He, Bin

    2014-01-15

    China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hypoxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet season has more flows. PMID:24029694

  1. 5 CFR 9701.526 - Continuation of existing laws, recognitions, agreements, and procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Continuation of existing...

  2. Optimal management design of a pump and treat system at the industrial complex in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Y.

    2011-12-01

    The optimization of the management design using a pump and treat system for the remediation of contaminated groundwater was performed for an industrial complex site in Korea. The main contaminants of groundwater in the site are trichloroethylene (TCE) and other solvents. The pump and treat system was selected as a remediation technique, with a genetic algorithm selected as the optimization technique. MODFLOW, MT3D and RT3D were used to simulate groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Various scenarios were tested to obtain a cost effective remediation strategy. The cost effectiveness was determined by the total cost, including the installation cost of pumping wells and the operational cost of the pump and treat system. Scenario 1 involved the removal of TCE from the entire contaminated area using pre-existing candidate pumping wells and additional candidate wells. Scenario 2 involved the simultaneous removals of TCE and other solvents from the entire contaminated area. Scenario 3 entailed containing the TCE within a compliance line, with another remediation technique applied to the rest of the contaminated area to reduce the total remediation cost. The optimal management design of scenario 3 was selected as the most cost effective remediation strategy. This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "The GAIA Project(173-092-010)".

  3. Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios--lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes.

    PubMed

    Lindborg, Regina; Stenseke, Marie; Cousins, Sara A O; Bengtsson, Jan; Berg, Ake; Gustafsson, Tomas; Sjödin, N Erik; Eriksson, Ove

    2009-01-01

    Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region. Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU. PMID:19853368

  4. Growth of Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes on fresh-cut cantaloupe under different temperature abuse scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Effective cold chain management is a critical component of food safety practice. In this study, we examined the impact of commonly encountered temperature abuse scenarios on the proliferation of Salmonela enterica and Listeria monocytogenes on fresh-cut cantaloupe. During one week of storage, Salmon...

  5. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

    2011-12-01

    Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

  6. Cardiopulmonary Bypass in Patients With Pre-existing Coagulopathy

    PubMed Central

    DeBois, William; Liu, Junli; Lee, Leonard; Girardi, Leonard; Ko, Wilson; Tortolani, Anthony; Krieger, Karl; Isom, O. Wayne

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: Patients with pre-existing coagulopathies who undergo surgical interventions are at increased risk for bleeding complications. This risk is especially true in cardiac surgical procedures with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) because of the necessity for heparinization and the use of the extracorporeal circuits, which have destructive effects on most of the blood components. In this review, cases of cardiac surgeries in patients with certain pre-existing coagulopathies are summarized, which could shed a light on future managements of such patients undergoing cardiac procedures with CPB. Pre-existing coagulopathies include antithrombin III deficiency, heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, cancer, factor XII deficiency, hemophilia, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, protein S deficiency, and drug-induced platelet inhibition. In summary, pre-existing coagulopathy in patients undergoing open-heart surgeries, if not recognized and appropriately managed, can cause serious complications. Management of patients undergoing cardiac procedures should include a routine coagulation work-up and a thorough past medical history examination. If any of the foregoing is abnormal, further evaluation is warranted. Proper diagnosis and management of the pre-existing coagulopathy disorders is of crucial importance to the surgical outcome and long-term morbidity. PMID:15804152

  7. Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

    2013-01-01

    The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

  8. Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre-projection and actually projection stages. On pre-projection stage the algorithm of calculation is developed; the choice of operational units for the projection is carried out; the modern condition of water resources and its connection with use of water in examined river basins is considered; tendencies in development of an economy and use of water resources during last decades are revealed. On actually projection stages are analyzed available forecasts concerning an expected population and indexes of development for the economy basic branches, and also specific water consumption, taking into account radical methods on prevention of water resources quality deterioration. Results of development of integrated scenarios are submitted by the examples for the largest river basins of Russian plain and Siberia (Volga, Don and Lena river basins).

  9. Maximizing Conservation and Production with Intensive Forest Management: It's All About Location

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tittler, Rebecca; Filotas, Élise; Kroese, Jasmin; Messier, Christian

    2015-11-01

    Functional zoning has been suggested as a way to balance the needs of a viable forest industry with those of healthy ecosystems. Under this system, part of the forest is set aside for protected areas, counterbalanced by intensive and extensive management of the rest of the forest. Studies indicate this may provide adequate timber while minimizing road construction and favoring the development of large mature and old stands. However, it is unclear how the spatial arrangement of intensive management areas may affect the success of this zoning. Should these areas be agglomerated or dispersed throughout the forest landscape? Should managers prioritize (a) proximity to existing roads, (b) distance from protected areas, or (c) site-specific productivity? We use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model to examine the effects of different spatial scenarios on landscape structure, connectivity for native forest wildlife, stand diversity, harvest volume, and road construction: (1) random placement of intensive management areas, and (2-8) all possible combinations of rules (a)-(c). Results favor the agglomeration of intensive management areas. For most wildlife species, connectivity was the highest when intensive management was far from the protected areas. This scenario also resulted in relatively high harvest volumes. Maximizing distance of intensive management areas from protected areas may therefore be the best way to maximize the benefits of intensive management areas while minimizing their potentially negative effects on forest structure and biodiversity.

  10. Maximizing Conservation and Production with Intensive Forest Management: It's All About Location.

    PubMed

    Tittler, Rebecca; Filotas, Élise; Kroese, Jasmin; Messier, Christian

    2015-11-01

    Functional zoning has been suggested as a way to balance the needs of a viable forest industry with those of healthy ecosystems. Under this system, part of the forest is set aside for protected areas, counterbalanced by intensive and extensive management of the rest of the forest. Studies indicate this may provide adequate timber while minimizing road construction and favoring the development of large mature and old stands. However, it is unclear how the spatial arrangement of intensive management areas may affect the success of this zoning. Should these areas be agglomerated or dispersed throughout the forest landscape? Should managers prioritize (a) proximity to existing roads, (b) distance from protected areas, or (c) site-specific productivity? We use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model to examine the effects of different spatial scenarios on landscape structure, connectivity for native forest wildlife, stand diversity, harvest volume, and road construction: (1) random placement of intensive management areas, and (2-8) all possible combinations of rules (a)-(c). Results favor the agglomeration of intensive management areas. For most wildlife species, connectivity was the highest when intensive management was far from the protected areas. This scenario also resulted in relatively high harvest volumes. Maximizing distance of intensive management areas from protected areas may therefore be the best way to maximize the benefits of intensive management areas while minimizing their potentially negative effects on forest structure and biodiversity. PMID:26076893

  11. Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R; Brown, Christopher J; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I; Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-02-01

    Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century. PMID:25179273

  12. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  13. Shrinking Global Population: A futuristic scenario

    E-print Network

    Nagurney, Anna

    25 years per generation) imply: 1. Tenfold population growth every century. 2. By 3000 the globalShrinking Global Population: A futuristic scenario or a current challenge. Hillel Bar of RSAI - Atlanta November 15, 2013 #12;The evolution of global population Year Global Population

  14. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  15. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  16. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  17. Life Cycle Assessment of Three Water Scenarios

    E-print Network

    Keller, Arturo A.

    1 Life Cycle Assessment of Three Water Scenarios: Importation, Reclamation, and Desalination Erin and Environmental Engineering Arizona State University #12;Life Cycle Assessment · Described by International · Data analyzed and categorized · Find impacts on planet and humans #12;Life Cycle Assessment Extraction

  18. ALTERNATIVE PLANET FORMATION SCENARIOS ROBERT L. KURUCZ

    E-print Network

    Kurucz, Robert L.

    out to the snow line. The agglomerated material rapidly forms planetesimals and inner planets1 ALTERNATIVE PLANET FORMATION SCENARIOS ROBERT L. KURUCZ HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CENTER FOR ASTROPHYSICS #12;2 SUMMARY When extra-solar giant planets were first discovered, I did not believe

  19. Using Geo-Data Corporately on the Response Phase of Emergency Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir Ozbek, E.; Ates, S.; Aydinoglu, A. C.

    2015-08-01

    Response phase of emergency management is the most complex phase in the entire cycle because it requires cooperation between various actors relating to emergency sectors. A variety of geo-data is needed at the emergency response such as; existing data provided by different institutions and dynamic data collected by different sectors at the time of the disaster. Disaster event is managed according to elaborately defined activity-actor-task-geodata cycle. In this concept, every activity of emergency response is determined with Standard Operation Procedure that enables users to understand their tasks and required data in any activity. In this study, a general conceptual approach for disaster and emergency management system is developed based on the regulations to serve applications in Istanbul Governorship Provincial Disaster and Emergency Directorate. The approach is implemented to industrial facility explosion example. In preparation phase, optimum ambulance locations are determined according to general response time of the ambulance to all injury cases in addition to areas that have industrial fire risk. Management of the industrial fire case is organized according to defined actors, activities, and working cycle that describe required geo-data. A response scenario was prepared and performed for an industrial facility explosion event to exercise effective working cycle of actors. This scenario provides using geo-data corporately between different actors while required data for each task is defined to manage the industrial facility explosion event. Following developing web technologies, this scenario based approach can be effective to use geo-data on the web corporately.

  20. The Greenhouse Effect Does Exist!

    E-print Network

    Ebel, Jochen

    2009-01-01

    In particular, without the greenhouse effect, essential features of the atmospheric temperature profile as a function of height cannot be described, i.e., the existence of the tropopause above which we see an almost isothermal temperature curve, whereas beneath it the temperature curve is nearly adiabatic. The relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed temperature curve is explained and the paper by Gerlich and Tscheuschner [arXiv:0707.1161] critically analyzed. Gerlich and Tscheuschner called for this discussion in their paper.

  1. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  2. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  3. Optimal management of groundwater pumping of the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Haveen; Al-Shukri, Haydar; Mahdi, Hanan

    2015-09-01

    A simulation model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache area, Arkansas, was coupled with an optimization model to determine maximum optimal pumping from irrigation wells in the areas where cones of depression exist. Groundwater Vistas and Groundwater Management software were used for simulation and optimization model, respectively. The Cache area was designated as a critical groundwater area in 2009 due to the decline in its water level to below 50 % of the saturated thickness of the aquifer. The optimization model was formulated with the objective of maximizing water production from wells subjected to minimum head constraints and drawdown constraints, while limiting groundwater withdrawals to a maximum of 100 and 200 % of the rate pumped in 2010. Four different sets of managed wells were tested in Scenarios 1, 3 (938 wells) and Scenarios 2, 4 (3870 wells). The optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.59 and 2.43 Mm3/d for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. In the case of maximum pumping constraints of the managed wells specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of 2010, the optimal pumping rates from groundwater in the case of minimum head constraints were 0.88 and 3.28 Mm3/d for Scenarios 3 and 4, respectively. The average optimal pumping increased by 6-49 % in the case of the maximum pumping constraint specified as 200 % of the pumping rate of the year 2010.

  4. Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes - Cantilever Floor Example

    SciTech Connect

    Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2011-12-01

    This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented.

  5. Entrepreneur-Managers in Higher Education: (How) Do They Exist?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birds, Rachel

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers in the United Kingdom increasingly emphasise the contribution of innovation and entrepreneurialism to the economy. Drawing on a recent ethnographic study of a university commercial enterprise, this article examines the notion of entrepreneurialism in a higher education institution as understood and practised by its employees. The…

  6. Transition scenario to turbulence in thin vibrating plates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Touzé, C.; Bilbao, S.; Cadot, O.

    2012-01-01

    A thin plate, excited by a harmonic external forcing of increasing amplitude, shows transitions from a periodic response to a chaotic state of wave turbulence. By analogy with the transition to turbulence observed in fluid mechanics as the Reynolds number is increased, a generic transition scenario for thin vibrating plates, first experimentally observed, is here numerically studied. The von Kármán equations for thin plates, which include geometric non-linear effects, are used to model large amplitude vibrations, and an energy-conserving finite difference scheme is employed for discretisation. The transition scenario involves two bifurcations separating three distinct regimes. The first regime is the periodic, weakly non-linear response. The second is a quasiperiodic state where energy is exchanged between internally resonant modes. It is observed only when specific internal resonance relationships are fulfilled between the eigenfrequencies of the structure and the forcing frequency; otherwise a direct transition to the last turbulent state is observed. This third, or turbulent, regime is characterized by a broadband Fourier spectrum and a cascade of energy from large to small wavelengths. For perfect plates including cubic non-linearity, only third-order internal resonances are likely to exist. For imperfect plates displaying quadratic nonlinearity, the energy exchanges and the quasiperiodic states are favored and thus are more easily obtained. Finally, the turbulent regime is characterized in the light of available theoretical results from wave turbulence theory.

  7. Off-shell Higgs coupling measurements in BSM scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Englert, Christoph; Soreq, Yotam; Spannowsky, Michael

    2015-05-01

    Proposals of measuring the off-shell Higgs contributions and first measurements at the LHC have electrified the Higgs phenomenology community for two reasons: firstly, probing interactions at high invariant masses and momentum transfers is intrinsically sensitive to new physics beyond the Standard Model, irrespective of a resonant or non-resonant character of a particular BSM scenario. Secondly, under specific assumptions a class of models exists for which the off-shell coupling measurement together with a measurement of the on-shell signal strength can be re-interpreted in terms of a bound on the total Higgs boson width. In this paper, we provide a first step towards a classification of the models for which a total width measurement is viable and we discuss examples of BSM models for which the off-shell coupling measurement can be important in either constraining or even discovering new physics in the upcoming LHC runs. Specifically, we discuss the quantitative impact of the presence of dimension six operators on the (de)correlation of Higgs on- and off-shell regions keeping track of all interference effects. We furthermore investigate off-shell measurements in a wider context of new (non-)resonant physics in Higgs portal scenarios and the MSSM.

  8. Tool Fingerprinting: Characterising Management Tools

    E-print Network

    Mortara, L.; Phaal, R.; Kerr, C.; Farrukh, C.; Probert, D.

    2014-07-31

    . Scenario planning is often preferred by think-tanks and industry groups, whilst professionally trained managers favour SWOT analysis, benchmarking and balanced scorecards. The link between the uptake of tools and education has also been shown more...

  9. A glass transition scenario based on heterogeneities and entropy barriers

    E-print Network

    A. Crisanti; F. Ritort

    2001-06-18

    We propose a scenario for the glass transition based on the cooperative nature of nucleation processes and entropic effects. The main point is the relation between the off-equilibrium energy dissipation and nucleation processes in off-equilibrium supercooled liquids which leads to a natural definition of the complexity. From the absence of coarsening growth we can derive an entropy based fluctuation formula which relates the free energy dissipation rate in the glass with the nucleation rate of the largest cooperative regions. As by-product we obtain a new phenomenological relation between the largest relaxation time in the supercooled liquid phase and an effective temperature. This differs from the Adam-Gibbs relation in that predicts no divergence of the primary relaxation time at the Kauzmann temperature and the existence of a crossover from fragile to strong behavior.

  10. Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

    SciTech Connect

    Kokorin, A.O.

    1996-12-31

    Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

  11. Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vano, Julie A.; Kim, John B.; Rupp, David E.; Mote, Philip W.

    2015-07-01

    Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an ecosystem variable responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We illustrate our approach in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon.

  12. A scenario planning approach for disasters on Swiss road network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendes, G. A.; Axhausen, K. W.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2014-05-01

    We study a vehicular traffic scenario on Swiss roads in an emergency situation, calculating how sequentially roads block due to excessive traffic load until global collapse (gridlock) occurs and in this way displays the fragilities of the system. We used a database from Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung which contains length and maximum allowed speed of all roads in Switzerland. The present work could be interesting for government agencies in planning and managing for emergency logistics for a country or a big city. The model used to generate the flux on the Swiss road network was proposed by Mendes et al. [Physica A 391, 362 (2012)]. It is based on the conservation of the number of vehicles and allows for an easy and fast way to follow the formation of traffic jams in large systems. We also analyze the difference between a nonlinear and a linear model and the distribution of fluxes on the Swiss road.

  13. Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-01

    In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

  14. Do Birthing Options Really Exist?

    PubMed Central

    Lothian, Judith A.

    2001-01-01

    In this column, the author answers the question, “Is choosing to give birth naturally a realistic option in today's birth environment?” Women's choices of health care provider and place of birth are limited by the general belief that birth is safe only in the hospital and when managed by obstetric medicine. In the typical hospital environment, women rarely have access to the wide variety of comfort measures and the continuous emotional and physical support required to give birth naturally. Routine care practices further limit women's birthing options. The Coalition for Improving Maternity Services' document, the “Mother-Friendly Childbirth Initiative,” offers direction for creating birth environments that ensure options for women who choose to give birth naturally. PMID:17273259

  15. 43 CFR 3140.1-1 - Existing rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) LEASING IN SPECIAL TAR SAND AREAS Conversion of Existing Oil and...mineral location situated within a Special Tar Sand Area may convert that portion of the...Owners of oil and gas leases in Special Tar Sand Areas who elect not to convert their...

  16. 43 CFR 3140.1-1 - Existing rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) LEASING IN SPECIAL TAR SAND AREAS Conversion of Existing Oil and...mineral location situated within a Special Tar Sand Area may convert that portion of the...Owners of oil and gas leases in Special Tar Sand Areas who elect not to convert their...

  17. 43 CFR 3140.1-1 - Existing rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) LEASING IN SPECIAL TAR SAND AREAS Conversion of Existing Oil and...mineral location situated within a Special Tar Sand Area may convert that portion of the...Owners of oil and gas leases in Special Tar Sand Areas who elect not to convert their...

  18. 43 CFR 3140.1-1 - Existing rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...MANAGEMENT (3000) LEASING IN SPECIAL TAR SAND AREAS Conversion of Existing Oil and...mineral location situated within a Special Tar Sand Area may convert that portion of the...Owners of oil and gas leases in Special Tar Sand Areas who elect not to convert their...

  19. Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.

    PubMed

    Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

    2009-02-01

    Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario. PMID:19257499

  20. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  1. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  2. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  3. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are 97% lower compared to other anthropogenic sources like the public transport sector. The innovative sanitation scenarios were found to cause less environmental burden in terms of energy and GHGs. Nevertheless, to ensure a positive impact of these treatment systems, an optimum biogas reuse (for the production of electricity and heat), the source separation of human excreta (to disburden the wastewater treatment processes) should be introduced to reduce their GHG emissions. Keywords: Carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, methane, wastewater treatment technologies.

  4. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  5. Quintom scenario with mixed kinetic terms

    SciTech Connect

    Saridakis, Emmanuel N.; Weller, Joel M.

    2010-06-15

    We examine an extension of the quintom scenario of dark energy, in which a canonical scalar field and a phantom field are coupled through a kinetic interaction. We perform a phase-space analysis and show that the kinetic coupling gives rise to novel cosmological behavior. In particular, we obtain both quintessence-like and phantomlike late-time solutions, as well as solutions that cross the phantom divide during the evolution of the Universe.

  6. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  7. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  8. Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

    2011-04-01

    Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.

  9. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  10. Safety Sufficiency for NextGen: Assessment of Selected Existing Safety Methods, Tools, Processes, and Regulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Xidong; Ulrey, Mike L.; Brown, John A.; Mast, James; Lapis, Mary B.

    2013-01-01

    NextGen is a complex socio-technical system and, in many ways, it is expected to be more complex than the current system. It is vital to assess the safety impact of the NextGen elements (technologies, systems, and procedures) in a rigorous and systematic way and to ensure that they do not compromise safety. In this study, the NextGen elements in the form of Operational Improvements (OIs), Enablers, Research Activities, Development Activities, and Policy Issues were identified. The overall hazard situation in NextGen was outlined; a high-level hazard analysis was conducted with respect to multiple elements in a representative NextGen OI known as OI-0349 (Automation Support for Separation Management); and the hazards resulting from the highly dynamic complexity involved in an OI-0349 scenario were illustrated. A selected but representative set of the existing safety methods, tools, processes, and regulations was then reviewed and analyzed regarding whether they are sufficient to assess safety in the elements of that OI and ensure that safety will not be compromised and whether they might incur intolerably high costs.

  11. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing with economic and regulatory influences differently from other sources. The shifting stock of vessels from new-builds serving primary markets in one region to aging vessel technologies serving secondary markets produces substantial differences in future activity projections. This is compounded by the emissions differences between vessels on liner schedules and ships with similar technologies operating on charter or spot-market bases. Different rates of change drive growth among vessel types differently, so regional pattern shifts will occur, and need to be forecast or depicted in scenarios. Regulatory pathways are emerging with less clarity, but affect regional marine inputs. Scientists who measure emissions need to engage engineering principles of combustion, economics principles of supply and demand, and policy inputs to produce inventories that are more coherent, and more useful to the emerging purposes. Moreover, advanced studies (e.g., inverse modeling, source attribution, and control scenario validation) require design of “closure experiments”, where modeling of inventory measurements and modeled ambient impacts is corroborated and reconciled with field stack measurements and field observation campaigns. The most recent shipping inventories and scenarios are now providing details that recognize and address these issues.

  12. Scenario approach for assessing the utility of dispersal information in decision support for aerially spread plant pathogens, applied to Phytophthora infestans.

    PubMed

    Skelsey, P; Rossing, W A H; Kessel, G J T; van der Werf, W

    2009-07-01

    Opportunities exist to improve decision support systems through the use of dispersal information gained from epidemiological research. However, dispersal and demographic information is often fragmentary in plant pathology, and this uncertainty creates a risk of inappropriate action whenever such information is used as a basis for decision making. In this article, a scenario-based simulation approach is used to evaluate crop and economic risks and benefits in the use of dispersal information for decision making using the potato late blight pathosystem (Phytophthora infestans-Solanum tuberosum) as a case study. A recently validated spatiotemporal potato late blight model was coupled to submodels for crop growth, tuber dry matter production, and fungicide efficacy. The yield response of a range of management scenarios to a single influx of primary inoculum (the initial spore load) was calculated. Damage curves (relative yield loss versus initial spore load) from a range of combinations of varietal susceptibility and fungicide treatments were used to classify the various management scenarios as either sensitive to initial spore load or tolerant to initial spore load, thus identifying where a high degree of accuracy would be required in dispersal information for appropriate decision making, and where a greater degree of uncertainty could be tolerated. General epidemics, resulting from spatially homogeneous initial spore loads, responded more strongly to the size of the initial spore load than focal epidemics, resulting from an initial spot infection. Susceptible cultivars responded with sizeable yield losses even at low levels of initial spore load, regardless of the fungicide management regime used. These results indicated that, for susceptible cultivars (late cultivars in particular), the degree of accuracy that would be required in dispersal information for appropriate decision making is unlikely to be practically attainable. The results also indicated that, contrary to "folk wisdom," spore loads of a few hundred spores per square meter do not lead to appreciable crop loss in resistant cultivars and are therefore acceptable. We conclude that scope exists for including dispersal information in decision making for potato late blight with resistant potato cultivars but not for susceptible cultivars. The modeling framework used in this study can be extended to investigate the scope for inclusion of dispersal information in decision support for other aerially transmitted pathogens. PMID:19522587

  13. Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo

    2014-05-01

    Most of the challenges in designing land use policies that address sustainability issues are inherent to the concept of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). Researchers, farmers and mainly policy makers need to evaluate the impact of new and existing policies for soil protection. In Europe, farmers commit themselves, for a minimum period of at least five years, to adopt environmentally-friendly farming techniques that undergone legal obligations. On the other hand, farmers receive payments that provide compensation for additional costs and income foregone resulting from applying those environmentally friendly farming practices in line with the stipulations of agri-environment contracts. In this context we prospect scenarios on soil erosion variations in a detailed case study after the application of Agro-Environmental Measures (AEM). The study area is located in the South part of Sicily. In a district area of 11,588 ha, 35.5 % is devoted to vineyard cultivation, 32.2 % is arable land and only 11.1 % cultivated to olive grow. 2416 ha are urbanized areas and other less important crops. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in soil organic carbon stocks after AEM adoption, following criteria based on Conteh (1999) also applied in several research studies. For the purpose of comparison, the members of a paired site were selected to be similar with respect to the type of soil, slope, elevation, and drainage, but not to AEM. The comparisons were made between adjacent patches of land with different AEM, and a known history of land use and management. 100 paired sites (two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot (600 soil samples). The rainfall erosivity (R) factor (Mj mm ha-1 hour-1 year-1) was estimated with the formula specifically proposed for Sicily by Ferro and coauthors in 1999. The soil erodibility factor (K, in tons hour MJ-1 mm-1) was mapped on the base of soil texture and soil organic carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference—Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147

  14. HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT An interdisciplinary Bachelor's Degree program

    E-print Network

    Dyer, Bill

    , blending new hospitality management coursework with existing courses offered in Health and HumanHOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT An interdisciplinary Bachelor's Degree program for Montana State University emphasizing: RESTAURANT MANAGEMENT: FARM TO TABLE LODGE MANAGEMENT & RURAL TOURISM VALUE-ADDED FOOD ENTERPRISE

  15. Performance issues in management of the Space Station Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Marjory J.

    1988-01-01

    The onboard segment of the Space Station Information System (SSIS), called the Data Management System (DMS), will consist of a Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI) token-ring network. The performance of the DMS in scenarios involving two kinds of network management is analyzed. In the first scenario, how the transmission of routine management messages impacts performance of the DMS is examined. In the second scenario, techniques for ensuring low latency of real-time control messages in an emergency are examined.

  16. Improvement of the management of residual waste in areas without thermal treatment facilities: A life cycle analysis of an Italian management district.

    PubMed

    Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina; Morettini, Emanuela; Sisani, Luciano; Damiano, Roberto

    2015-10-01

    Starting from an existing waste management district without thermal treatment facilities, two different management scenarios for residual waste were compared by life cycle assessment (LCA). The adoption of a bioreactor landfill for managing the mechanically sorted organic fraction instead of bio-stabilization led to reduction of global warming and fresh water eutrophication by 50% and 10%, respectively. Extraction of recyclables from residual waste led to avoided emissions for particulate matter, acidification and resource depletion impact categories. Marginal energy and the amount of energy recovered from landfill gas marginally affected the LCA results. On the contrary the quality of the recyclables extracted can significantly modify the eco profile of the management schemes. PMID:26184897

  17. Optimal randomness certification in the quantum steering and prepare-and-measure scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passaro, Elsa; Cavalcanti, Daniel; Skrzypczyk, Paul; Acín, Antonio

    2015-11-01

    Quantum mechanics predicts the existence of intrinsically random processes. Contrary to classical randomness, this lack of predictability can not be attributed to ignorance or lack of control. Here we find the optimal method to quantify the amount of local or global randomness that can be extracted in two scenarios: (i) the quantum steering scenario, where two parties measure a bipartite system in an unknown state but one of them does not trust his measurement apparatus, and (ii) the prepare-and-measure scenario, where additionally the quantum state is known. We use our methods to compute the maximal amount of local and global randomness that can be certified by measuring systems subject to noise and losses and show that local randomness can be certified from a single measurement if and only if the detectors used in the test have detection efficiency higher than 50%.

  18. The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Edmonds, Dr. Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy; Manning, Dr. Martin R.; Rose, Steven K.; Moss, Dr. Richard; Van Vuuren, Dr. Detlef; Carter, Dr. Timothy; Emori, Dr. Seita; Kainuma, Dr. Mikiko; Kram, Dr. Tom; Meehl, Dr. Gerald A.; Mitchell, Dr. John F. B.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Dr. Keywan; Smith, Dr. Steven J.; Stouffer, Dr. Ronald J.; Thomson, Dr. Allison; Weyant, Dr. John P.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

  19. Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

    2010-05-01

    To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC duration and by promoting CC in the autumn period. To conclude, the ability of TNT2 model to simulate catchments hydrology and nitrogen cycle has been demonstrated with a fine spatial resolution and fine degree of details in agricultural practices. A generic participatory 3-step-method for scenario analysis has been developed to ensure an appropriation of the prospective modeling task in decision support. Finally, the most advantageous CC management has been brought out and its effect of N cycling quantified. Keywords: hydrology, nitrogen, distributed model, diffuse pollution, scenario, decision support

  20. Global existence and blow-up for a weakly dissipative $?$DP equation

    E-print Network

    Martin Kohlmann

    2011-06-07

    In this paper, we study a weakly dissipative variant of the periodic Degasperis-Procesi equation. We show the local well-posedness of the associated Cauchy problem in $H^s(\\S)$, $s>3/2$, and discuss the precise blow-up scenario for $s=3$. We also present explicit examples for globally existing solutions and blow-up.

  1. Network Management Network Management

    E-print Network

    Giaccone, Paolo

    ) ­ Performance monitoring and management ­ Security management ­ Accounting management (pricing) SafetyNetwork Management Pag. 1 Network Management Andrea Bianco Telecommunication Network Group Network management and QoS provisioning - 1Andrea Bianco ­ TNG group - Politecnico di Torino Telecommunication

  2. Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

  3. 78 FR 13695 - Information Collection: Renewable Energy and Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities on the Outer...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-28

    ... Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Information Collection: Renewable Energy and Alternate Uses of Existing... requirements in the regulations under ``Renewable Energy and Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities on the Outer...: 1010-0176. Title: 30 CFR 585, Renewable Energy and Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities on the...

  4. Paper waste - Recycling, incineration or landfilling? A review of existing life cycle assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Villanueva, A. Wenzel, H.

    2007-07-01

    A review of existing life cycle assessments (LCAs) on paper and cardboard waste has been undertaken. The objectives of the review were threefold. Firstly, to see whether a consistent message comes out of published LCA literature on optimum disposal or recycling solutions for this waste type. Such message has implications for current policy formulation on material recycling and disposal in the EU. Secondly, to identify key methodological issues of paper waste management LCAs, and enlighten the influence of such issues on the conclusions of the LCA studies. Thirdly, in light of the analysis made, to discuss whether it is at all valid to use the LCA methodology in its current development state to guide policy decisions on paper waste. A total of nine LCA studies containing altogether 73 scenarios were selected from a thorough, international literature search. The selected studies are LCAs including comparisons of different management options for waste paper. Despite claims of inconsistency, the LCAs reviewed illustrate the environmental benefits in recycling over incineration or landfill options, for paper and cardboard waste. This broad consensus was found despite differences in geographic location and definitions of the paper recycling/disposal systems studied. A systematic exploration of the LCA studies showed, however, important methodological pitfalls and sources of error, mainly concerning differences in the definition of the system boundaries. Fifteen key assumptions were identified that cover the three paper cycle system areas: raw materials and forestry, paper production, and disposal/recovery. It was found that the outcome of the individual LCA studies largely depended on the choices made in some of these assumptions, most specifically the ones concerning energy use and generation, and forestry.

  5. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  6. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  7. Can we manage for biological diversity in the absence of science?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Trauger, D.L.; Hall, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Conservation of biological diversity is dependent on sound scientific information about underlying ecological processes. Current knowledge of the composition, distribution, abundance and life cycles of most species of plants and animals is incomplete, insufficient, unreliable, or nonexistent. Contemporary managers are also confronted with additional levels of complexity related to varying degrees of knowledge and understanding about interactions of species and ecosystems. Consequently, traditional species-oriented management schemes may have unintended consequences and ecosystem-oriented management initiatives may fail in the face of inadequate or fragmentary information on the structure, function, and dynamics of biotic communities and ecological systems. Nevertheless, resource managers must make decisions and manage based on the best biological information currently available. Adaptive resource management may represent a management paradigm that allows managers to learn something about the species or systems that they are managing while they are managing, but potential pitfalls lurk for such approaches. In addition to lack of control over the primary physical, chemical, and ecological processes, managers also lack control over social, economic, and political parameters affecting resource management options. Moreover, appropriate goals may be difficult to identify and criteria for determining success may be elusive. Some management responsibilities do not lend themselves to adaptive strategies. Finally, the lessons learned from adaptive management are usually obtained from a highly situational context that may limit applicability in a wider range of situations or undermine confidence that problems and solutions were properly diagnosed and addressed. Several scenarios are critically examined where adaptive management approaches may be inappropriate or ineffective and where management for biological diversity may be infeasible or inefficient without a sound scientific basis. Whereas some level of management must exist to meet agency responsibilities, more research is needed to conserve biological diversity.

  8. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, R.; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-11-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein’s theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  9. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    PubMed

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc. PMID:18534944

  10. Possible Scenarios for the LHC Luminosity Upgrade

    SciTech Connect

    Scandale, W.

    2005-10-12

    In this paper we consider possible scenarios to upgrade the LHC luminosity beyond 1034 cm-2s-1. By pushing the accelerator parameters to the ultimate performance we can increase to 1.7 1011 the bunch population and eventually reach a peak luminosity of 2.3x1034 cm-2s-1. To go beyond, a considerable improvement of the LHC parameters, such as ss*, beam intensity, bunch length, number of circulating bunches is required. Finally, the upgrade of the injector complex and of the injection energy is another important ingredient to upgrade both peak and integrated luminosity up to an order of magnitude above the nominal value.

  11. Bringing Scenario Planning Home to KU

    E-print Network

    Church-Duran, Jennifer; Ludwig, Deborah

    2012-03-01

    , 42. 3 University of Kansas (KU), Bold Aspirations: The Strategic Plan for the University of Kansas, 2012–2017 (Lawrence, Kansas: KU Office of the Provost, 2011), http://www.provost.ku.edu/planning/. © 2012 Jennifer Church-Duran and Deborah Ludwig... March 2012 research Library issues: a QuarterLy report froM arL, cNi, aNd sparc Bringing Scenario Planning Home to KU Jennifer Church-Duran, Assistant Dean for User Services, University of Kansas Libraries Deborah Ludwig, Assistant Dean...

  12. Traceability of patient records usage: barriers and opportunities for improving user interface design and data management.

    PubMed

    Cruz-Correia, Ricardo; Lapão, Luís; Rodrigues, Pedro Pereira

    2011-01-01

    Although IT governance practices (like ITIL, which recommends on the use of audit logs for proper service level management) are being introduced in many Hospitals to cope with increasing levels of information quality and safety requirements, the standard maturity levels of hospital IT departments is still not enough to reach the level of frequent use of audit logs. This paper aims to address the issues related to the existence of AT in patient records, describe the Hospitals scenario and to produce recommendations. Representatives from four hospitals were interviewed regarding the use of AT in their Hospital IS. Very few AT are known to exist in these hospitals (average of 1 per hospital in an estimate of 21 existing IS). CIOs should to be much more concerned with the existence and maintenance of AT. Recommendations include server clock synchronization and using advanced log visualization tools. PMID:21893756

  13. From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

    One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

  14. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  15. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

    PubMed

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy. PMID:26122632

  16. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    PubMed

    Geary, Matthew; Fielding, Alan H; McGowan, Philip J K; Marsden, Stuart J

    2015-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse. PMID:26569604

  17. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species

    PubMed Central

    Geary, Matthew; Fielding, Alan H.; McGowan, Philip J. K.; Marsden, Stuart J.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse. PMID:26569604

  18. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  19. Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazard along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekovski, I.; Armaroli, C.; Calabrese, L.; Mancini, F.; Stecchi, F.; Perini, L.

    2015-04-01

    The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low lying areas. The study site is the Emilia-Romagna Region coastline (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (Total Water Level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and >100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost-Distance tool of ArcGIS® to a high resolution Digital Terrain Model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-as-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata based SLEUTH model. The results show that, if the urban growth is compact-like, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-as-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identify flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.

  20. Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekovski, I.; Armaroli, C.; Calabrese, L.; Mancini, F.; Stecchi, F.; Perini, L.

    2015-10-01

    The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The study site is the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (total water level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and > 100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost-Distance tool of ArcGIS® to a high-resolution digital terrain model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-to-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata-based SLEUTH model. The results show that if the urban growth progresses compactly, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-to-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identification of flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.

  1. Estimation of the Transportation Risks for the Spent Fuel in Korea for Various Transportation Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Jongtae, Jeong; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W.

    2008-07-01

    According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. From the results of this study, we found that these four transportation scenarios for spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future. (authors)

  2. Anthropogenic phosphorus flows under different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jiechen; Franzén, Daniel; Malmström, Maria E

    2016-01-15

    Today, concerns prevail about the unsustainable use of phosphorus and worldwide eutrophication, thus requiring efficient management of phosphorus flows. With increasing population and associated urban growth, urban management of phosphorus flows in the perspectives of recycling, eutrophication and total budget becomes increasingly important. This study mapped phosphorus flows for a reference year (2013) and a future year (2030) using different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden. The results indicated that the Swedish goal of recycling phosphorus from wastewater would cover the majority of the total phosphorus budget for Stockholm. However, in 2013, only 10% of phosphorus was recycled for agricultural use, around half of which was from sewage sludge and the other half from food waste. Almost 50% of total phosphorus was sent to landfill/mining waste capping with sewage sludge, for economic reasons and lack of market. Among the scenarios of upstream and downstream urban management options studied in combination with population growth, recovery of phosphorus from sewage sludge had the greatest potential to increase the fraction recycled to agriculture. However, only upstream measures, e.g. changed diet, were able to reduce the total phosphorus budget. Urban management of phosphorus flows based on the different perspectives of recycling, eutrophication or total budget was shown to potentially result in different preferred management actions and both upstream and downstream measures need to be considered. Moreover, management needs to pay attention to small but environmentally sensitive flows, particularly when setting city goals on phosphorus recycling by percentage in a large budget. PMID:26442719

  3. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  4. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    E-print Network

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2015-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  5. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  6. Type Ia Supernova Models and Progenitor Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Kamiya, Yasuomi; Nakasato, Naohito

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent developments in theoretical studies on the connection between the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the explosion mechanisms. (1) DD-subCh: In the merging of double C+O white dwarfs (DD scenario), if the carbon detonation is induced near the white dwarf (WD) surface in the early dynamical phase, it could result in the (effectively) sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosion. (2) DD-Ch: If no surface C-detonation is ignited, the WD could grow until the Chandrasekhar mass is reached, but the outcome depends on whether the quiescent carbon shell burning is ignited and burns C+O into O+Ne+Mg. (3) SD-subCh: In the single degenerate (SD) scenario, if the He shell-flashes grow strong to induce a He detonation, it leads to the sub-Chandra explosion. (4) SD-Ch: If the He-shell flashes are not strong enough, they still produce interesting amounts of Si and S near the surface of the C+O WD before the explosion. In the Chandra mass explosion, the central density is high enough to produce electron capture elements, e.g., stable 58Ni. Observations of the emission lines of Ni in the nebular spectra provides useful diagnostics of the sub-Chandra vs. Chandra issue. The recent observations of relatively low velocity carbon near the surface of SNe Ia provide also an interesting constraint on the explosion models.

  7. FMDP reactor alternative summary report. Volume 1 - existing LWR alternative

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, S.R.; Bevard, B.B.

    1996-10-07

    Significant quantities of weapons-usable fissile materials [primarily plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)] are becoming surplus to national defense needs in both the United States and Russia. These stocks of fissile materials pose significant dangers to national and international security. The dangers exist not only in the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons but also in the potential for environmental, safety, and health (ES&H) consequences if surplus fissile materials are not properly managed. This document summarizes the results of analysis concerned with existing light water reactor plutonium disposition alternatives.

  8. Multiple Scenarios in Higher Education. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heydinger, Richard B.

    A model for generating global scenarios for higher education is presented, and five global scenarios for the future of higher education in the United States are proposed. Multiple scenarios help to set the context in which planning occurs. They are similar to planning assumptions that many institutional research offices prepare as background…

  9. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  10. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling...

  11. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling...

  12. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling...

  13. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling...

  14. Mesoscale disturbances and orographic precipitation distribution: Three special case scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, Heather Dawn

    Flow patterns and precipitation distribution in the vicinity of mountains are often attributed to whether the flow is in a blocked or unblocked regime, which, in turn, is dictated by the wind speed and static stability far upstream of the mountain and the mountain height. Herein, the notion that mesoscale disturbances immediately upstream of mountains and/or terrain inhomogeneities could alter the flow patterns significantly, resulting in a precipitation distribution that does not fit typical patterns for blocked vs. unblocked flows, was studied via consideration of specific case studies and idealized numerical experiments. The first scenario considered that of an orographically trapped stable layer upstream of a mountain. A series of quasi-idealized simulations suggests that flow patterns and precipitation distribution in the vicinity of a mountain are affected not only by the presence of such a layer, but by the strength of the capping inversion of this layer. Part two of this research investigated the effects of a pre-existing convective system upstream of a mountain for conditionally unstable flow, where a pre-existing convective system is defined as one that is triggered by some mechanism other than lifting by the mountain in question. Idealized numerical experiments with differing upstream wind speeds reveal that if the flow was in a blocked regime, the introduction of a pre-existing precipitation system had little effect on the precipitation distribution and flow patterns in the vicinity of the mountain. If the flow was in an unblocked regime, the introduction of a pre-existing precipitation system was associated with flow reversal upstream of the mountain and an upstream shift of the locus of maximum precipitation. The last part of the thesis considered the effects of terrain inhomogeneities on precipitation distribution via full-physics simulations of two heavy precipitation events along the western face of the Sierra Nevada mountains. Of the terrain features that were tested, the greatest sensitivity in the precipitation distribution was to directional changes in slope orientation along the upstream face of the range. In sensitivity tests where these undulations were removed, isolated maxima along the upslope that were present in the corresponding reference simulations were either reduced or non-existant. The overriding conclusion from this thesis is that although the wind speed and static stability far upstream of a mountain are important, mesoscale flow phenomena immediately upstream of a mountain can significantly change the flow and precipitation patterns.

  15. Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welling, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

  16. Mechanical ventilation in mass casualty scenarios. Augmenting staff: project XTREME.

    PubMed

    Hanley, Michael E; Bogdan, Gregory M

    2008-02-01

    Disaster preparedness typically includes plans that address the need for surge capacity to manage mass-casualty events. A major concern of disaster preparedness in respiratory therapy focuses on responding to a sudden increase in the volume of patients who require mechanical ventilation. Plans for such disasters must include contingencies to address surge capacity in ventilator inventories and the respiratory therapy staff who will manage the ventilators. Tactics to address these situations include efforts to lower demand by transferring patients to other institutions as well as efforts to augment staffing levels. Staff can be augmented by mobilization of deployable teams of volunteers from outside the region and through exploitation of local resources. The latter includes strategies to recruit local respiratory therapists who are currently in either non-clinical or non-hospital-based positions and policies that optimize existing respiratory therapy resources within an institution by canceling elective surgeries, altering shift structure, and postponing vacations. An alternative approach would employ non-respiratory-therapy staff to assist in the management of patients with respiratory failure. Project XTREME (Cross-Training Respiratory Extenders for Medical Emergencies) is a cross-training program developed to facilitate training of non-respiratory-therapy health professionals to assist in the management of patients who require mechanical ventilation. It includes an interactive digital video disc as well as a competency validation laboratory and is designed to be performed at the time of an emergency. Pilot testing of the program suggests it is effective. PMID:18218149

  17. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China. PMID:26439928

  18. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

    2015-01-01

    Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China. PMID:26439928

  19. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Progra...

  20. Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

    2014-12-01

    For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales. The resulting climate, land use, and groundwater recharge maps give stakeholders a common set of future scenarios that they understand through the participatory scenario process, and identify the vulnerabilities, trade-offs, and adaptive priorities for different groundwater management and land uses in an uncertain future.

  1. Environmental evaluation of waste treatment scenarios for the towns Khanty-Mansiysk and Surgut, Russia.

    PubMed

    Kaazke, Julia; Meneses, Montse; Wilke, Berndt-Michael; Rotter, Vera Susanne

    2013-03-01

    Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra in Siberia has recently started to play a major role in the Russian economy because key oil and gas extraction sites are located in this region. As a result, the extensions of infrastructure and higher incomes have been leading to an accelerated population growth and consequent increase in the generation of solid household waste. The current methods of waste disposal have now reached their limits, especially in the towns Khanty-Mansiysk and Surgut. The key objectives of this study were to identify the influence of waste composition and transport routes on the life cycle assessment (LCA) results and to assess the current waste treatment option for solid household waste and to compare it with proposed scenarios. Furthermore, recommendations for an optimal use of LCA within a decision-making process for a waste management plan are presented. LCA methodology was used to evaluate different waste management scenarios such as landfilling and incineration. One result was that the options 'incineration with recycling' and 'anaerobic mechanical-biological treatment with recycling' demonstrated lower environmental impact in both Khanty-Mansiysk and Surgut. Another finding was that there were hardly any differences in the ranking of the scenarios for Surgut and Khanty-Mansiysk. However, the special socio-cultural circumstances and location of each town have to be considered seriously in the development of a sustainable waste management plan. PMID:23381971

  2. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  3. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  4. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  5. Lyman Alpha Galaxies and Galaxy Formation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, James; Dey, Arjun; Jannuzi, Buell

    2003-02-01

    The Large Area Lyman Alpha survey has successfully identified the population of young Ly? emitting galaxies predicted over 30 years ago. High equivalent widths of Ly? line in these sources suggest that they are a very young (age < 10^7 years), metal poor, population of stars at redshifts 4.5, 5.7 and 6.6, making them very interesting objects to study in the context of galaxy formation scenarios. We have begun to do exactly this using the correlation function of LALA galaxies, with fairly puzzling results. Before this leads to more complications in theoretical galaxy formation scenarios, we would like to put the observational results on a firm footing. In order to do that we ask for one night of Keck/Deimos time for spectroscopic confirmation of 50 secure LALA sources at z=4.5, and a similar number of fainter sources, in order to (1) characterize the completeness of this survey, and (2) weed out foreground emission line galaxies which affect the small scale correlation function. The excellent match between wide-field capabilities of DEIMOS and the LALA survey will allow the most complete confirmation and characterization of the high redshift Ly? population yet in terms of photometric sample reliability, while our planned spectra of foreground emission line galaxies will lead to a characterization of emission line selected star-forming galaxies at 0.25 < z < 1.5. We will use our spectroscopic sample to obtain a clean measurement of the small scale correlations among Ly? galaxies (which are clearly seen in our photometric sample). This will let us understand the halo mass, occupancy number, and duty cycle of these objects, and hence better how Ly? sources fit into the bigger picture of galaxy formation.

  6. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. PMID:16010760

  7. Epidemics Scenarios in the “Romantic Network”

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M.; Gonçalves, Sebastián

    2012-01-01

    The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the “Romantic network”, is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time. PMID:23209561

  8. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required ?v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  9. Existence of a coupled system of fractional differential equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibrahim, Rabha W.; Siri, Zailan

    2015-10-01

    We manage the existence and uniqueness of a fractional coupled system containing Schrödinger equations. Such a system appears in quantum mechanics. We confirm that the fractional system under consideration admits a global solution in appropriate functional spaces. The solution is shown to be unique. The method is based on analytic technique of the fixed point theory. The fractional differential operator is considered from the virtue of the Riemann-Liouville differential operator.

  10. Seismic Risk Scenarios in Puerto Principe (haiti). a Tool for Reconstruction and Emergency Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Palacios, S.; Torres-Fernandez, Y.; Moise, J.; Benito-Oterino, B.; Haiti Working Group

    2011-12-01

    The 12 January 2010, an earthquake hit the city of Port-au-Prince, capital of Haiti. The earthquake reached a magnitude Mw 7.0 and the epicenter was located near the town of Léogâne, approximately 25 km west of the capital. The earthquake occurred in the boundary region separating the Caribbean plate and the North American plate. This plate boundary is dominated by left-lateral strike slip motion and compression, and accommodates about 20 mm/y slip, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to the North American plate (DeMets et al., 2000). Initially the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system (EPGFZ), however Hayes et al., (2010) combined seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process involved slip on multiple faults. Besides, the authors showed that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the EPGFZ. On December 2010, a Spanish cooperation project financed by the Politechnical University of Madrid started with a clear objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. One of the tasks of the project was devoted to vulnerability assessment of the current building stock and the estimation of seismic risk scenarios. The study was carried out by following the capacity spectrum method as implemented in the software SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). The method requires a detailed classification of the building stock in predominant building typologies (according to the materials in the structure and walls, number of stories and age of construction) and the use of the building (residential, commercial, etc.). Later, the knowledge of the soil characteristics of the city and the simulation of a scenario earthquake will provide the seismic risk scenarios (damaged buildings). The initial results of the study show that one of the highest sources of uncertainties comes from the difficulty of achieving a precise building typologies classification due to the craft construction without any regulations. Also it is observed that although the occurrence of big earthquakes usually helps to decrease the vulnerability of the cities due to the collapse of low quality buildings and the reconstruction of seismically designed buildings, in the case of Port-au-Prince the seismic risk in most of the districts remains high, showing very vulnerable areas. Therefore the local authorities have to drive their efforts towards the quality control of the new buildings, the reinforcement of the existing building stock, the establishment of seismic normatives and the development of emergency planning also through the education of the population.

  11. Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

    PubMed Central

    Ni, Shi-Jun; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong

    2013-01-01

    Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources. PMID:23818816