Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

2015-01-01

Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most

Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

2016-01-01

Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.

PubMed

Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

2008-01-01

Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites.

Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Sardini, M.

2012-07-01

The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonablemore » according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)« less

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

Treesearch

Alicia Azpeleta Tarancon; Peter Z. Fule; Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Andrew Sanchez Meador; Barbara Strom

2014-01-01

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned...

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory

2017-01-01

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Predicting bird response to alternative management scenarios on a ranch in Campeche, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, P.A.; Dawson, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Wilson, M.H.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

We developed models to predict the potential response of wintering Neotropical migrant and resident bird species to alternative management scenarios, using data from point counts of birds along with habitat variables measured or estimated from remotely sensed data in a Geographic Information System. Expected numbers of occurrences at points were calculated for 100 species of birds, under current habitat conditions and under habitat conditions that would result from seven alternative management scenarios for Rancho Sandoval, a cattle ranch and private nature reserve in Campeche, Mexico. Most bird species of conservation concern would benefit from management scenarios that increase the amount of forest, but the highest priority resident species would not. To balance the somewhat conflicting habitat needs of these species and the concerns of ranch managers, we recommend that forest area and connectivity be increased, and pastures be maintained but more efficiently managed to support cattle and the priority resident and migrant birds that require open habitats.

Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

PubMed

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

PubMed

Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

2008-09-01

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

PubMed

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-12-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

PubMed Central

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-01-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management.

PubMed

Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; Lemay, Kate; Armour, Carol L

2014-01-01

To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists' confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way.

Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management

PubMed Central

Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; LeMay, Kate; Armour, Carol L.

Objective To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists’ confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. Results In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusions Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way. PMID:24644524

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

2016-06-01

Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

2011-01-01

The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone

A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2017-02-16

A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

A GIS-based protocol for the simulation and evaluation of realistic 3-D thinning scenarios in recreational forest management.

PubMed

Lin, Chinsu; Thomson, Gavin; Hung, Shih-Hsiang; Lin, Yu-Dung

2012-12-30

This study introduces a GIS-based protocol for the simulation and evaluation of thinning treatments in recreational forest management. The protocol was implemented in a research study based on an area of recreational forest in Alishan National Scenic Area, Taiwan. Ground survey data were mapped to a GIS database, to create a precise, yet flexible, GIS-based digital forest. The digital forest model was used to generate 18 different thinning scenario images and one image of the existing unthinned forest. A questionnaire was completed by 456 participants while simultaneously viewing the scenario images. The questionnaire was used to determine the scenic beauty preferences of the respondents. Statistical analysis of the data revealed that the respondents preferred low density, upper-storey thinning treatments and a dispersed retention pattern of the remaining trees. High density upper-storey treatments evoked a strongly negative reaction in the observers. The experiment demonstrated that the proposed protocol is suitable for selecting an appropriate thinning strategy for recreational forest and that the protocol has practical value in recreational forest management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

PubMed Central

Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

2015-01-01

Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

PubMed

Denti, Enrico

2014-01-01

Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

Dark scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

Facilities Management of Existing School Buildings: Two Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Building Technology, Inc., Silver Spring, MD.

While all school districts are responsible for the management of their existing buildings, they often approach the task in different ways. This document presents two models that offer ways a school district administration, regardless of size, may introduce activities into its ongoing management process that will lead to improvements in earthquake…

Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

2016-12-01

Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, Amarisa; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

2005-01-01

Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

PubMed

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

2006-12-01

The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.

PubMed

Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T

2011-01-01

Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed.

Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

2017-01-01

The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland.

PubMed

Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

2017-01-01

The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khambatta, Cyrus F.

2007-01-01

A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

2014-02-01

Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE PAGES

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

2016-06-16

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios.

PubMed

Kindermann, Georg E; Schörghuber, Stefan; Linkosalo, Tapio; Sanchez, Anabel; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-02-01

Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010-2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared

Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

2010-05-01

The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do

The European forest sector: past and future carbon budget and fluxes under different management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilli, Roberto; Grassi, Giacomo; Kurz, Werner A.; Fiorese, Giulia; Cescatti, Alessandro

2017-05-01

The comprehensive analysis of carbon stocks and fluxes of managed European forests is a prerequisite to quantify their role in biomass production and climate change mitigation. We applied the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) to 26 European countries, parameterized with country information on the historical forest age structure, management practices, harvest regimes and the main natural disturbances. We modeled the C stocks for the five forest pools plus harvested wood products (HWPs) and the fluxes among these pools from 2000 to 2030. The aim is to quantify, using a consistent modeling framework for all 26 countries, the main C fluxes as affected by land-use changes, natural disturbances and forest management and to assess the impact of specific harvest and afforestation scenarios after 2012 on the mitigation potential of the EU forest sector. Substitution effects and the possible impacts of climate are not included in this analysis. Results show that for the historical period from 2000 to 2012 the net primary productivity (NPP) of the forest pools at the EU level is on average equal to 639 Tg C yr-1. The losses are dominated by heterotrophic respiration (409 Tg C yr-1) and removals (110 Tg C yr-1), with direct fire emissions being only 1 Tg C yr-1, leading to a net carbon stock change (i.e., sink) of 110 Tg C yr-1. Fellings also transferred 28 Tg C yr-1 of harvest residues from biomass to dead organic matter pools. The average annual net sector exchange (NSE) of the forest system, i.e., the carbon stock changes in the forest pools including HWP, equals a sink of 122 Tg C yr-1 (i.e., about 19 % of the NPP) for the historical period, and in 2030 it reaches 126, 101 and 151 Tg C yr-1, assuming constant, increasing (+20 %) and decreasing (-20 %) scenarios, respectively, of both harvest and afforestation rates compared to the historical period. Under the constant harvest rate scenario, our findings show an incipient aging process of the forests existing in 1990: although NPP

Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

PubMed Central

Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

2016-01-01

The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

2013-12-01

Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

PubMed

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident.

PubMed

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management.

Radiological protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations resulting from a nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Hattori, Takatoshi

2013-01-01

In environmental remediation after nuclear accidents, radioactive wastes have to be appropriately managed in existing exposure situations with contamination resulting from the emission of radionuclides by such accidents. In this paper, a framework of radiation protection from radioactive waste management in existing exposure situations for application to the practical and reasonable waste management in contaminated areas, referring to related ICRP recommendations was proposed. In the proposed concept, intermediate reference levels for waste management are adopted gradually according to the progress of the reduction in the existing ambient dose in the environment on the basis of the principles of justification and optimisation by taking into account the practicability of the management of radioactive waste and environmental remediation. It is essential to include the participation of relevant stakeholders living in existing exposure situations in the selection of reference levels for the existing ambient dose and waste management. PMID:22719047

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2018-01-01

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

2014-12-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; C.E. Fiedler; R.E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is...

Predicting Bird Response to Alternative Management Scenarios on a Ranch in Campeche, México

Treesearch

Paul A. Wood; Deanna K. Dawson; John R. Sauer; Marcia H. Wilson

2005-01-01

We developed models to predict the potential response of wintering Neotropical migrant and resident bird species to alternative management scenarios, using data from point counts of birds along with habitat variables measured or estimated from remotely sensed data in a Geographic Information System. Expected numbers of occurrences at points were calculated for 100...

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron,

2015-01-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource

75 FR 17913 - Maintenance and Vegetation Management Along Existing Western Area Power Administration...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-08

... Maintenance and Vegetation Management Along Existing Western Area Power Administration Transmission Line... Corporation's mandatory vegetation management and maintenance standards (FAC-003-1) in accordance with section... Service) authorizations or issuing new authorizations to accommodate Western's vegetation management...

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

2008-01-01

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

Review of scenario analyses to reduce agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the aquatic environment.

PubMed

Hashemi, Fatemeh; Olesen, Jørgen E; Dalgaard, Tommy; Børgesen, Christen D

2016-12-15

Nutrient loadings of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to aquatic environments are of increasing concern globally for managing ecosystems, drinking water supply and food production. There are often multiple sources of these nutrients in the landscape, and the different hydrological flow patterns within stream or river catchments have considerable influence on nutrient transport, transformation and retention processes that all eventually affect loadings to vulnerable aquatic environments. Therefore, in order to address options to reduce nutrient loadings, quantitative assessment of their effects in real catchments need to be undertaken. This involves setting up scenarios of the possible nutrient load reduction measures and quantifying their impacts via modelling. Over the recent two decades there has been a great increase in the use of scenario-based analyses of strategies to combat excessive nutrient loadings. Here we review 130 published papers extracted from Web of Science for 1995 to 2014 that have applied models to analyse scenarios of agricultural impacts on nutrients loadings at catchment scale. The review shows that scenario studies have been performed over a broad range of climatic conditions, with a large focus on measures targeting land cover/use and land management for reducing the source load of N and P in the landscape. Some of the studies considered how to manage the flows of nutrients, or how changes in the landscape may be used to influence both flows and transformation processes. Few studies have considered spatially targeting measures in the landscape, and such studies are more recent. Spatially differentiated options include land cover/use modification and application of different land management options based on catchments characteristics, cropping conditions and climatic conditions. Most of the studies used existing catchment models such as SWAT and INCA, and the choice of the models may also have influenced the setup of the scenarios. The use of

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design and evaluation of simulation scenarios for a program introducing patient safety, teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to healthcare leaders and managers.

PubMed

Cooper, Jeffrey B; Singer, Sara J; Hayes, Jennifer; Sales, Michael; Vogt, Jay W; Raemer, Daniel; Meyer, Gregg S

2011-08-01

We developed a training program to introduce managers and informal leaders of healthcare organizations to key concepts of teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to motivate them to act as leaders to improve safety within their sphere of influence. This report describes the simulation scenario and debriefing that are core elements of that program. Twelve teams of clinician and nonclinician managers were selected from a larger set of volunteers to participate in a 1-day, multielement training program. Two simulation exercises were developed: one for teams of nonclinicians and the other for clinicians or mixed groups. The scenarios represented two different clinical situations, each designed to engage participants in discussions of their safety leadership and teamwork issues immediately after the experience. In the scenarios for nonclinicians, participants conducted an anesthetic induction and then managed an ethical situation. The scenario for clinicians simulated a consulting visit to an emergency room that evolved into a problem-solving challenge. Participants in this scenario had a limited time to prepare advice for hospital leadership on how to improve observed safety and cultural deficiencies. Debriefings after both types of scenarios were conducted using principles of "debriefing with good judgment." We assessed the relevance and impact of the program by analyzing participant reactions to the simulation through transcript data and facilitator observations as well as a postcourse questionnaire. The teams generally reported positive perceptions of the relevance and quality of the simulation with varying types and degrees of impact on their leadership and teamwork behaviors. These kinds of clinical simulation exercises can be used to teach healthcare leaders and managers safety leadership and teamwork skills and behaviors.

Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

2015-04-01

Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

A Scenario Based Assessment of Future Groundwater Resources in the Phoenix Active Management Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, V. M.; Lant, T. W.

2007-12-01

The availability of future water supplies in central Arizona depends on the interaction of multiple physical and human systems: climate, hydrology, water and land-use policy, urbanization, and regulation. The problem in assessing future water supplies requires untangling these drivers and recasting the issue in a way that acknowledges the inherent uncertainties in climate and population growth predictions while offering meaningful metrics for outcomes under alternative scenarios. Further, the drivers, policy options, and outcomes are spatially heterogeneous - surface water supplies, new urban developments and changes in land-use will not be shared uniformly across the region. Consequently, different geographic regions of the Phoenix metropolitan area will be more vulnerable to shortages in water availability, and these potential vulnerabilities will be more or less severe depending on which factors cause the shortage. The results of this research will make several contributions to existing literature and research products for groundwater conservation and future urban planning. It will provide location specific metrics of water vulnerability and offer a novel approach to groundwater analysis; it will demonstrate the XLRM framework with an application to central Arizona Water resources. Lastly, it will add to the WaterSim climate model by spatializing the groundwater component for the Phoenix Active Management Area.

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

B.C. Wales; L.H. Suring; M.A. Hemstrom

2007-01-01

Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior Western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and...

Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

2014-12-01

In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

Future water demand in California under a broad range of land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

2016-12-01

California continues to be gripped by the most severe drought on record. Most general circulation models agree the state will continue to warm this century and research suggests persistent, long-term droughts may become the new normal, exacerbating an already uncertain water supply future. Population increases and agricultural intensification will likely stress existing, highly variable inter-annual water supplies even further in coming decades. Using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model, we explore a wide range of potential water demand futures from 2012 to 2062 based on 8 alternative, spatially-explicit (1 km) land use scenarios and land-use related water demand. Scenarios include low and high rates for urbanization, agricultural expansion, and agricultural contraction as well as lowest and highest rates for the combined suite of anthropogenic land uses. Land change values were sampled from county-level historical (1991-2012) land change data and county-level average water use data for urban areas (i.e. municipal and industrial) and annual and perennial cropland. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario to better characterize and capture model uncertainty and a range of potential future outcomes. Results show water demand in Mediterranean California was lowest in the low anthropogenic change scenario, dropping an average 2.7 million acre feet (MAF) by 2062. The highest water demand was seen in the high urbanization (+3.2 MAF), high agricultural expansion (+4.1 MAF), and the high anthropogenic (+4.3 MAF) scenarios. Results provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on observed land change and water use trends, helping better inform land and resource management decisions.

Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

2016-01-01

This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

2012-01-01

Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

PubMed

Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

2017-03-15

Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

2013-01-01

This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

PubMed

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavioral and environmental influences on fishing rewards and the outcomes of alternative management scenarios for large tropical rivers.

PubMed

Hallwass, Gustavo; Lopes, Priscila F M; Juras, Anastácio A; Silvano, Renato A M

2013-10-15

Identifying the factors that influence the amount of fish caught, and thus the fishers' income, is important for proposing or improving management plans. Some of these factors influencing fishing rewards may be related to fishers' behavior, which is driven by economic motivations. Therefore, those management rules that have less of an impact on fishers' income could achieve better acceptance and compliance from fishers. We analyzed the relative influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on fish catches (biomass) in fishing communities of a large tropical river. We then used the results from this analysis to propose alternative management scenarios in which we predicted potential fishers' compliance (high, moderate and low) based on the extent to which management proposals would affect fish catches and fishers' income. We used a General Linear Model (GLM) to analyze the influence of environmental (fishing community, season and habitat) and socioeconomic factors (number of fishers in the crew, time spent fishing, fishing gear used, type of canoe, distance traveled to fishing grounds) on fish catches (dependent variable) in 572 fishing trips by small-scale fishers in the Lower Tocantins River, Brazilian Amazon. According to the GLM, all factors together accounted for 43% of the variation in the biomass of the fish that were caught. The behaviors of fishers' that are linked to fishing effort, such as time spent fishing (42% of the total explained by GLM), distance traveled to the fishing ground (12%) and number of fishers (10%), were all positively related to the biomass of fish caught and could explain most of the variation on it. The environmental factor of the fishing habitat accounted for 10% of the variation in fish caught. These results, when applied to management scenarios, indicated that some combinations of the management measures, such as selected lakes as no-take areas, restrictions on the use of gillnets (especially during the high-water season

California Groundwater Management During Drought: Existing and Future Regulatory Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekdahl, E.; Boland-Brien, S.; Vanderburgh, B.; Landau, K.; Bean, J.; Peltier, T.

2015-12-01

Groundwater has served as an effective buffer to California's crippling drought of 2012-2015, allowing continued agricultural production in many areas where surface water deliveries have been curtailed. However, over-reliance on groundwater has caused plummeting groundwater levels in much of the state's heavily agricultural regions, with annual groundwater overdraft state-wide estimated in the millions of acre-feet per year. Prior to 2015, California water law did not allow for the effective monitoring or assessment of groundwater use; passage of new state regulations will require development of locally-managed plans that, for the first time, require comprehensive groundwater management and groundwater basin sustainability. Because these plans are not required to be implemented for another 25 years, groundwater levels will likely continue to decrease. Some communities that are 100-percent reliant on groundwater as a source of municipal supply may face shortages and supply issues, which may exacerbate known water quality concerns. Examination of community water systems that are reliant on groundwater, their existing water quality issues, and their response to the current drought (through existing mandatory conservation requirements imposed by California state regulators) can identify areas that are particularly susceptible to continued groundwater overdraft.

USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

2008-12-01

The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laforcade, Pierre

2007-01-01

Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

Scenario planning for water resource management in semi arid zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Rajiv; Kumar, Gaurav

2018-06-01

Scenario planning for water resource management in semi arid zone is performed using systems Input-Output approach of time domain analysis. This approach derived the future weights of input variables of the hydrological system from their precedent weights. Input variables considered here are precipitation, evaporation, population and crop irrigation. Ingles & De Souza's method and Thornthwaite model have been used to estimate runoff and evaporation respectively. Difference between precipitation inflow and the sum of runoff and evaporation has been approximated as groundwater recharge. Population and crop irrigation derived the total water demand. Compensation of total water demand by groundwater recharge has been analyzed. Further compensation has been evaluated by proposing efficient methods of water conservation. The best measure to be adopted for water conservation is suggested based on the cost benefit analysis. A case study for nine villages in Chirawa region of district Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan (India) validates the model.

Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celić, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgoč, Nedo; Isajlović, Igor; Marčeta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

2014-05-01

The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target

Hydraulic and Condition Assessment of Existing Sewerage Network: A Case Study of an Educational Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sourabh, Nishant; Timbadiya, P. V.

2018-04-01

The hydraulic simulation of the existing sewerage network provides various information about critical points to assess the deteriorating condition and help in rehabilitation of existing network and future expansion. In the present study, hydraulic and condition assessment of existing network of educational Institute (i.e. Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology-Surat, Gujarat, India), having an area of 100 ha and ground levels in range of 5.0-9.0 m above mean sea level, has been carried out using sewage flow simulation for existing and future scenarios analysis using SewerGEMS v8i. The paper describes the features of 4.79 km long sewerage network of institute followed by network model simulation for aforesaid scenarios and recommendations on improvement of the existing network for future use. The total sewer loads for present and future scenarios are 1.67 million litres per day (MLD) and 3.62 MLD, considering the peak factor of 3 on the basis of population. The hydraulic simulation of the existing scenario indicated depth by diameter (d/D) ratio in the range of 0.02-0.48 and velocity range of 0.08-0.53 m/s for existing network for present scenario. For the future scenario, the existing network is needed to be modified and it was found that total of 11 conduits (length: 464.8 m) should be replaced to the next higher diameter available, i.e., 350 mm for utilization of existing network for future scenario. The present study provides the methodology for condition assessment of existing network and its utilization as per guidelines provided by Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, 2013. The methodology presented in this paper can be used by municipal/public health engineer for the assessment of existing sewerage network for its serviceability and improvement in future.

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.

PubMed

Wei, Jiufeng; Zhao, Qing; Zhao, Wanqing; Zhang, Hufang

2018-01-01

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting frommore » various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Strategy Guideline: Quality Management in Existing Homes; Cantilever Floor Example

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taggart, J.; Sikora, J.; Wiehagen, J.

2011-12-01

This guideline is designed to highlight the QA process that can be applied to any residential building retrofit activity. The cantilevered floor retrofit detailed in this guideline is included only to provide an actual retrofit example to better illustrate the QA activities being presented. The goal of existing home high performing remodeling quality management systems (HPR-QMS) is to establish practices and processes that can be used throughout any remodeling project. The research presented in this document provides a comparison of a selected retrofit activity as typically done versus that same retrofit activity approached from an integrated high performance remodeling andmore » quality management perspective. It highlights some key quality management tools and approaches that can be adopted incrementally by a high performance remodeler for this or any high performance retrofit. This example is intended as a template and establishes a methodology that can be used to develop a portfolio of high performance remodeling strategies.« less

Sludge quantification at water treatment plant and its management scenario.

PubMed

Ahmad, Tarique; Ahmad, Kafeel; Alam, Mehtab

2017-08-15

Large volume of sludge is generated at the water treatment plants during the purification of surface water for potable supplies. Handling and disposal of sludge require careful attention from civic bodies, plant operators, and environmentalists. Quantification of the sludge produced at the treatment plants is important to develop suitable management strategies for its economical and environment friendly disposal. Present study deals with the quantification of sludge using empirical relation between turbidity, suspended solids, and coagulant dosing. Seasonal variation has significant effect on the raw water quality received at the water treatment plants so forth sludge generation also varies. Yearly production of the sludge in a water treatment plant at Ghaziabad, India, is estimated to be 29,700 ton. Sustainable disposal of such a quantity of sludge is a challenging task under stringent environmental legislation. Several beneficial reuses of sludge in civil engineering and constructional work have been identified globally such as raw material in manufacturing cement, bricks, and artificial aggregates, as cementitious material, and sand substitute in preparing concrete and mortar. About 54 to 60% sand, 24 to 28% silt, and 16% clay constitute the sludge generated at the water treatment plant under investigation. Characteristics of the sludge are found suitable for its potential utilization as locally available construction material for safe disposal. An overview of the sustainable management scenario involving beneficial reuses of the sludge has also been presented.

Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore » employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

DOE PAGES

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

2015-09-08

Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore » employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

Photon and a preferred frame scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rembieliński, Jakub; Ciborowski, Jacek

2018-06-01

Structure of the space of photonic states is discussed in the context of a working hypothesis of existence of a preferred frame for photons. Two polarization experiments are proposed to test the preferred frame scenario.

Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

2004-01-01

The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

2004-01-01

There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

The Scenario Approach to the Development of Regional Waste Management Systems (Implementation Experience in the Regions of Russia)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fomin, Eugene P.; Alekseev, Audrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Dorozhkin, Vladimir E.

2016-01-01

The article illustrates a theoretical approach to scenario modeling of economic indicators of regional waste management system. The method includes a three-iterative algorithm that allows the executive authorities and investors to take a decision on logistics, bulk, technological and economic parameters of the formation of the regional long-term…

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weatherly, D.

1984-01-01

Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process. PMID:23311826

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

PubMed Central

Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

PubMed

Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

2016-09-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

2014-10-01

The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

2004-01-01

The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

2013-01-01

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

2009-04-01

to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PubMed Central

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories. PMID:29088254

Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

2014-12-01

Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research

Interreality in the management of psychological stress: a clinical scenario.

PubMed

Riva, Giuseppe; Raspelli, Simona; Pallavicini, Federica; Grassi, Alessandra; Algeri, Davide; Wiederhold, Brenda K; Gaggioli, Andrea

2010-01-01

The term "psychological stress" describes a situation in which a subject perceives that environmental demands tax or exceed his or her adaptive capacity. According to the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the best validated approach covering both stress management and stress treatment is the Cognitive Behavioral (CBT) approach. We aim to design, develop and test an advanced ICT based solution for the assessment and treatment of psychological stress that is able to improve the actual CBT approach. To reach this goal we will use the "interreality" paradigm integrating assessment and treatment within a hybrid environment, that creates a bridge between the physical and virtual worlds. Our claim is that bridging virtual experiences (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and emotional regulation) with real experiences (allowing both the identification of any critical stressors and the assessment of what has been learned) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, advanced sensors and PDA/mobile phones) is the best way to address the above limitations. To illustrate the proposed concept, a clinical scenario is also presented and discussed: Paola, a 45 years old nurse, with a mother affected by progressive senile dementia.

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

PubMed

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.

2015-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the

Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-09-09

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

2014-01-01

In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-11-01

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities.

PubMed

Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C; Close, David A; Cheung, William W L

2016-01-01

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived

Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C.; Close, David A.; Cheung, William W. L.

2016-01-01

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios on the small island of Mauritius.

PubMed

Rajcoomar, Avinash; Ramjeawon, Toolseeram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to use the life cycle assessment tool to assess, from an environmental point of view, the different possible municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios for the island of Mauritius. The scenarios include landfilling with energy recovery (S1), incineration with energy recovery (S2), composting, incineration and landfilling (S3) and finally composting, recycling, incineration and landfilling (S4). The MSW generated in 2010 was selected as the functional unit. Foreground data were collected through surveys and literature. Background data were obtained from ecoinvent data in SimaPro 8 libraries. The scenarios were compared both through the CML-IA baseline-midpoint method and the ReCiPe end-point method. From the midpoint method, the results obtained indicates that landfilling (S1) has the greatest impact in all the analyzed impact categories except ozone layer depletion and human toxicity, while incineration (S2) has the least impact on almost all the analyzed damage categories except in global warming potential and human toxicity. The collection and transportation of waste has a significant impact on the environment. From the end-point method, S4 reduces the damage impact categories on Human Health, Ecosystems and Resources due to the recycling process. S3 is not favorable due to the impact caused by the composting process. However, it is also very important to emphasize that for incineration, the best available technology with energy recovery shall be considered. It is recommended that S2 and S4 are considered for strategic planning.

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

PubMed

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

PubMed Central

Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Scenario of a dirty bomb in an urban environment and acute management of radiation poisoning and injuries.

PubMed

Chin, F K C

2007-10-01

In the new security environment, there is a clear and present danger of terrorists using non-conventional weapons to inflict maximum psychological and economic damage on their targets. This article examines two scenarios of radiation contamination and injury, one accidental in nature leading to environmental contamination, and another of deliberate intent resulting in injury and death. This article also discusses the management of injury from radiological dispersion devices or dirty bombs, with emphasis on the immediate aftermath as well as strategy recommendations.

Species distributions models in wildlife planning: agricultural policy and wildlife management in the great plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Jorgensen, Christopher; Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Zach, Eric S.; Decker, Karie L.

2017-01-01

We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto a series of alternative future landscape scenarios for Nebraska, USA. Based on our scenarios, we qualitatively and quantitatively estimated the effects of agricultural policy decisions on pheasant populations across Nebraska, in specific management regions, and at wildlife management areas. 

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive

Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

2011-12-01

There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

Integrated analysis of landscape management scenarios using state and transition models in the upper Grande Ronde River subbasin, Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Allison Reger; Barbara. Wales

2007-01-01

We modeled the integrated effects of natural disturbances and management activities for three disturbance scenarios on a 178 000-ha landscape in the upper Grande Ronde subbasin of northeast Oregon. The landscape included three forest environments (warm-dry, cool-moist, and cold) as well as a mixture of publicly and privately owned lands. Our models were state and...

Twenty-five years of HIV: lessons for low prevalence scenarios.

PubMed

Sawires, Sharif; Birnbaum, Nina; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Szekeres, Greg; Gayle, Jacob

2009-07-01

During the initial quarter century since the discovery of HIV, international response has focused on high prevalence scenarios and concentrated epidemics. Until recently, the theoretical underpinnings of HIV prevention were largely based on these responses-the assumption that inadequate responses to concentrated epidemics within low prevalence populations could rapidly lead to generalized epidemics. The limits of these assumptions for HIV prevention in low prevalence scenarios have become evident. While examples of rapid HIV diffusion in once low prevalence scenarios exist, emergence of generalized epidemics are less likely for much of the world. This paper reviews several key issues and advances in biomedical and behavioural HIV prevention to date and highlights relevance to low prevalence scenarios.

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

PubMed

Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

2016-12-15

Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

2009-01-01

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

2017-01-01

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

2010-10-01

This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

1992-01-01

The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

An integrated fuzzy-based advanced eutrophication simulation model to develop the best management scenarios for a river basin.

PubMed

Srinivas, Rallapalli; Singh, Ajit Pratap

2018-03-01

Assessment of water quality status of a river with respect to its discharge has become prerequisite to sustainable river basin management. The present paper develops an integrated model for simulating and evaluating strategies for water quality management in a river basin management by controlling point source pollutant loadings and operations of multi-purpose projects. Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP version 8.0) has been used for modeling the transport of pollutant loadings and their impact on water quality in the river. The study presents a novel approach of integrating fuzzy set theory with an "advanced eutrophication" model to simulate the transmission and distribution of several interrelated water quality variables and their bio-physiochemical processes in an effective manner in the Ganges river basin, India. After calibration, simulated values are compared with the observed values to validate the model's robustness. Fuzzy technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solution (F-TOPSIS) has been used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the water quality simulation results. The model also simulates five different scenarios for pollution reduction, to determine the maximum pollutant loadings during monsoon and dry periods. The final results clearly indicate how modeled reduction in the rate of wastewater discharge has reduced impacts of pollutants in the downstream. Scenarios suggesting a river discharge rate of 1500 m 3 /s during the lean period, in addition to 25 and 50% reduction in the load rate, are found to be the most effective option to restore quality of river Ganges. Thus, the model serves as an important hydrologic tool to the policy makers by suggesting appropriate remediation action plans.

Legacy2Drupal - Conversion of an existing oceanographic relational database to a semantically enabled Drupal content management system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffei, A. R.; Chandler, C. L.; Work, T.; Allen, J.; Groman, R. C.; Fox, P. A.

2009-12-01

Content Management Systems (CMSs) provide powerful features that can be of use to oceanographic (and other geo-science) data managers. However, in many instances, geo-science data management offices have previously designed customized schemas for their metadata. The WHOI Ocean Informatics initiative and the NSF funded Biological Chemical and Biological Data Management Office (BCO-DMO) have jointly sponsored a project to port an existing, relational database containing oceanographic metadata, along with an existing interface coded in Cold Fusion middleware, to a Drupal6 Content Management System. The goal was to translate all the existing database tables, input forms, website reports, and other features present in the existing system to employ Drupal CMS features. The replacement features include Drupal content types, CCK node-reference fields, themes, RDB, SPARQL, workflow, and a number of other supporting modules. Strategic use of some Drupal6 CMS features enables three separate but complementary interfaces that provide access to oceanographic research metadata via the MySQL database: 1) a Drupal6-powered front-end; 2) a standard SQL port (used to provide a Mapserver interface to the metadata and data; and 3) a SPARQL port (feeding a new faceted search capability being developed). Future plans include the creation of science ontologies, by scientist/technologist teams, that will drive semantically-enabled faceted search capabilities planned for the site. Incorporation of semantic technologies included in the future Drupal 7 core release is also anticipated. Using a public domain CMS as opposed to proprietary middleware, and taking advantage of the many features of Drupal 6 that are designed to support semantically-enabled interfaces will help prepare the BCO-DMO database for interoperability with other ecosystem databases.

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Ana M. G. Barros; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Haiganoush K. Preisler; Thomas A. Spies; Eric White; Robert J. Pabst; Keith A. Olsen; Emily Platt; John D. Bailey; John P. Bolte

2017-01-01

We use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining existing treatment strategies in terms of spatial distribution and...

Performance of experienced versus less experienced paramedics in managing challenging scenarios: a cognitive task analysis study.

PubMed

Smith, Michael W; Bentley, Melissa A; Fernandez, Antonio R; Gibson, Gregory; Schweikhart, Sharon B; Woods, David D

2013-10-01

Out-of-hospital care is becoming more complex, thus placing greater reliance on the cognitive abilities of paramedics to manage difficult situations. In adapting to the challenges in their work, paramedics develop expertise. We study the cognitive strategies used by expert paramedics to contribute to understanding how paramedics and the EMS system can adapt to new challenges. We conducted a "staged-world" cognitive task analysis to explore paramedics' handling of cognitive challenges related to sense-making and to resource and task management. A mixed-fidelity simulation was used to present paramedics with 2 challenging scenarios: a pulmonary embolism initially presenting as a myocardial infarction and a 2-person shooting with limited resources available. Participants were 10 paramedics, 6 more experienced and 4 less experienced. Analysis involved comparing the performance of the 2 groups to identify strategies associated with expertise. The more experienced paramedics made more assessments, explored a wider variety of presumptive diagnoses, and identified the pulmonary embolism earlier. They switched attention between the 2 shooting victims more, used their emergency medical technician-basic level partners more, and provided more advanced level care for both patients. Their patients arrived at the emergency department more prepared for specialized emergency care. Our findings correspond to general cognitive attributes of expertise: greater cue gathering and inferential reasoning, and more functional and strategic thinking. These results suggest potential areas and methods to facilitate development of expertise, as well as ways to better support use of expertise. Future studies should expand on these findings through larger sample sizes and more complex scenarios. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1999-09-01

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what typemore » of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing

An integrated approach for the management of demolition waste in Cyprus.

PubMed

Kourmpanis, Basilis; Papadopoulos, Achilleas; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Kourmoussis, Fotis; Stylianou, Marinos; Loizidou, Maria

2008-12-01

This study investigated the generation and management of demolition waste (DW) in Cyprus. A methodology has been developed and applied for the estimation of the quantities of the waste stream under examination, since quantitative primary data were not available. The existing situation relating to the practices applied for the management of DW was investigated and assessed. Furthermore, a multi-criteria analysis method (PROMETHEE II) was developed and applied in order to examine alternative systems that could be implemented for the management of the DW in the country. In particular, nine management systems (scenarios) were examined, evaluated and ranked according to their efficiency using seventeen individual criteria, divided into four groups (social-legislative, environmental, economic and technical). The ranking of the alternative waste management scenarios indicated that the optimum management system for possible implementation in the island included complete selective demolition procedures and transfer of mixed recyclable materials to the recycling centre and non-recyclable material to landfill.

Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

2013-01-01

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city

Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

PubMed

Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

2018-09-01

To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface extra-vehicular activity emergency scenario management: Tools, procedures, and geologically related implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zea, Luis; Diaz, Alejandro R.; Shepherd, Charles K.; Kumar, Ranganathan

2010-07-01

Extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) are an essential part of human space exploration, but involve inherently dangerous procedures which can put crew safety at risk during a space mission. To help mitigate this risk, astronauts' training programs spend substantial attention on preparing for surface EVA emergency scenarios. With the help of two Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) crews (61 and 65), wearing simulated spacesuits, the most important of these emergency scenarios were examined at three different types of locations that geologically and environmentally resemble lunar and Martian landscapes. These three platforms were analyzed geologically as well as topographically (utilizing a laser range finder with slope estimation capabilities and a slope determination software). Emergency scenarios were separated into four main groups: (1) suit issues, (2) general physiological, (3) attacks and (4) others. Specific tools and procedures were developed to address each scenario. The tools and processes were tested in the field under Mars-analog conditions with the suited subjects for feasibility and speed of execution.

Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

PubMed

Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

2015-06-01

This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

PubMed

Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

2014-01-01

With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Cost of enlarged operating zone for an existing Francis runner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monette, Christine; Marmont, Hugues; Chamberland-Lauzon, Joël; Skagerstrand, Anders; Coutu, André; Carlevi, Jens

2016-11-01

Traditionally, hydro power plants have been operated close to best efficiency point, the more stable operating condition for which they have been designed. However, because of changes in the electricity market, many hydro power plants operators wish to operate their machines differently to fulfil those new market needs. New operating conditions can include whole range operation, many start/stops, extensive low load operation, synchronous condenser mode and power/frequency regulation. Many of these new operating conditions may impose more severe fatigue damage than the traditional base load operation close to best efficiency point. Under these conditions, the fatigue life of the runner may be significantly reduced and reparation or replacement cost might occur sooner than expected. In order to design reliable Francis runners for those new challenging operating scenarios, Andritz Hydro has developed various proprietary tools and design rules. These are used within Andritz Hydro to design mechanically robust Francis runners for the operating scenarios fulfilling customer's specifications. To estimate residual life under different operating scenarios of an existing runner designed years ago for best efficiency base load operation, Andritz Hydro's design rules and tools would necessarily lead to conservative results. While the geometry of a new runner can be modified to fulfil all conservative mechanical design rules, the predicted fatigue life of an existing runner under off-design operating conditions may appear rather short because of the conservative safety factor included in the calculations. The most precise and reliable way to calculate residual life of an existing runner under different operating scenarios is to perform a strain gauge measurement campaign on the runner. This paper presents the runner strain gage measurement campaign of a mid-head Francis turbine over all the operating conditions available during the test, the analysis of the measurement signals

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

A disease management programme for patients with diabetes mellitus is associated with improved quality of care within existing budgets.

PubMed

Steuten, L M G; Vrijhoef, H J M; Landewé-Cleuren, S; Schaper, N; Van Merode, G G; Spreeuwenberg, C

2007-10-01

To assess the impact of a disease management programme for patients with diabetes mellitus (Type 1 and Type 2) on cost-effectiveness, quality of life and patient self-management. By organizing care in accordance with the principles of disease management, it is aimed to increase quality of care within existing budgets. Single-group, pre-post design with 2-year follow-up in 473 patients. Substantial significant improvements in glycaemic control, health-related quality of life (HRQL) and patient self-management were found. No significant changes were detected in total costs of care. The probability that the disease management programme is cost-effective compared with usual care amounts to 74%, expressed in an average saving of 117 per additional life year at 5% improved HRQL. Introduction of a disease management programme for patients with diabetes is associated with improved intermediate outcomes within existing budgets. Further research should focus on long-term cost-effectiveness, including diabetic complications and mortality, in a controlled setting or by using decision-analytic modelling techniques.

Ancillary study management systems: a review of needs

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The valuable clinical data, specimens, and assay results collected during a primary clinical trial or observational study can enable researchers to answer additional, pressing questions with relatively small investments in new measurements. However, management of such follow-on, “ancillary” studies is complex. It requires coordinating across institutions, sites, repositories, and approval boards, as well as distributing, integrating, and analyzing diverse data types. General-purpose software systems that simplify the management of ancillary studies have not yet been explored in the research literature. Methods We have identified requirements for ancillary study management primarily as part of our ongoing work with a number of large research consortia. These organizations include the Center for HIV/AIDS Vaccine Immunology (CHAVI), the Immune Tolerance Network (ITN), the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN), the U.S. Military HIV Research Program (MHRP), and the Network for Pancreatic Organ Donors with Diabetes (nPOD). We also consulted with researchers at a range of other disease research organizations regarding their workflows and data management strategies. Lastly, to enhance breadth, we reviewed process documents for ancillary study management from other organizations. Results By exploring characteristics of ancillary studies, we identify differentiating requirements and scenarios for ancillary study management systems (ASMSs). Distinguishing characteristics of ancillary studies may include the collection of additional measurements (particularly new analyses of existing specimens); the initiation of studies by investigators unaffiliated with the original study; cross-protocol data pooling and analysis; pre-existing participant consent; and pre-existing data context and provenance. For an ASMS to address these characteristics, it would need to address both operational requirements (e.g., allocating existing specimens) and data management requirements

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.

2013-09-24

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing differentmore » techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

PubMed Central

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Enrollment Management Study: Five Scenarios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albers, James R.; Burns, James A.

The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

PubMed Central

Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

2016-01-01

Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Development and Evaluation of an Instrument to Measure Reasoning About Managing Asthma in Older School-Age Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kintner, Eileen; Cook, Gwendolyn; Hull, Lakisha; Meeder, Linda

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose This article describes development and evaluation of a 4-scenario instrument designed to measure reasoning abilities for managing asthma symptoms. Methods Existing literature informed creation of a reasoning template and the reasoning scenarios. Think-aloud interviews appraised scenario functionality. Experts assessed content validity. Data from 2 groups of students with asthma aged 9–15 years (N = 132 and 307) were used to evaluate psychometric properties. Results The scenarios were deemed functional, content was relevant, and readability was age/grade appropriate. Cronbach’s alpha was 0.79. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single component solution and revealed a good fit. Concurrent validity was established using correlations with asthma knowledge. Conclusion The instrument could be used to assess reasoning about symptom management and to evaluate educational interventions. PMID:24620511

Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

5 CFR 9701.506 - Impact on existing agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Impact on existing agreements. 9701.506 Section 9701.506 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT... HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Labor-Management Relations § 9701.506 Impact on existing agreements...

Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

PubMed

Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

2016-10-01

Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

2016-04-01

Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Sterle, Kelley; Simpson, Karen; Singletary, Loretta; Fitzgerald, Kelsey; McCarthy, Maureen

2017-01-01

In this study, the scenarios ultimately take the form of gridded, daily (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation totals spanning the entire Truckee-Carson River System, from which meteorological inputs to various hydrologic, water-balance and watermanagement models can be extracted by other parts of the Water for the Seasons project and by other studies and stakeholders. Climate scenarios are constructed using: 1) survey data from interviews with 66 Truckee-Carson River System water-management and water-interest organizations to identify plausible drought and high-flow events that could stress the system irreparably; 2) input from the Stakeholder Affiliate Group and other modelers on the Water for the Seasons team to gain additional key stakeholder input with regard to organizational survey results and to identify the most pressing water-management issues being faced in the system; and 3) historical climate datasets used to simulate possible future conditions.

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

PubMed

Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

2017-11-01

Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

2013-04-01

state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the Greater Everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.

PubMed

Koch, M S; Coronado, C; Miller, M W; Rudnick, D T; Stabenau, E; Halley, R B; Sklar, F H

2015-04-01

Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

Greenhouse gas footprint and the carbon flow associated with different solid waste management strategy for urban metabolism in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Islam, K M Nazmul

2017-02-15

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) and associated climate change consequences are gripping attention globally, while MSW management as a vital subsystem of urban metabolism significantly influences the urban carbon cycles. This study evaluates the GHG emissions and carbon flow of existing and proposed MSW management in Bangladesh through scenario analysis, including landfill with landfill gas (LFG) recovery, waste to energy (WtE), and material recovery facility (MRF). The analysis indicates that, scenario H 2 and H 5 emitted net GHGs -152.20kg CO 2 eq. and -140.32kg CO 2 eq., respectively, in comparison with 420.88kg CO 2 eq. of scenario H 1 for managing per ton of wastes during the reference year 2015. The annual horizontal carbon flux of the waste input was 319Gg and 158Gg during 2015 in Dhaka and Chittagong, respectively. An integrated strategy of managing the wastes in the urban areas of Bangladesh involving WtE incineration plant and LFG recovery to generate electricity as well as MRF could reverse back 209.46Gg carbon and 422.29Gg carbon to the Chittagong and Dhaka urban system, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for the MSW policy framework and revamp of existing MSW management practices with regards to reduction of GHGs emissions from the waste sector in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stars with relativistic speeds in the Hills scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dremova, G. N.; Dremov, V. V.; Tutukov, A. V.

2017-07-01

The dynamical capture of a binary system consisting of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and an ordinary star in the gravitational field of a central (more massive) SMBH is considered in the three-body problem in the framework of a modified Hills scenario. The results of numerical simulations predict the existence of objects whose spatial speeds are comparable to the speed of light. The conditions for and constraints imposed on the ejection speeds realized in a classical scenario and the modified Hills scenario are analyzed. The star is modeled using an N-body approach, making it possible to treat it as a structured object, enabling estimation of the probability that the object survives when it is ejected with relativistic speed as a function of the mass of the star, the masses of both SMBHs, and the pericenter distance. It is possible that the modern kinematic classification for stars with anomalously high spatial velocities will be augmented with a new class—stars with relativistic speeds.

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided

Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-03-01

A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenario Planning for Water Resources: a Forward-looking Approach Combining Science, Demographic Trends and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, F.; Thorsten, W.

2007-12-01

Although there has been much written about the use of scenario analysis for long-term planning, particularly with respect to the decisions facing firms, the extant literature has few examples of scenarios explicitly applied to water resource issues. Fewer still have considered short-fuse events such as floods and failure of water retention and conveyance structures in the context of longer-term scenarios for water resources planning. We report progress on an effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. We place particular emphasis on semi-arid environments and forces external to the traditional water management process such as high-impact weather and climate events or unforeseen changes in government institutions that may drive unanticipated change in environmental systems. Most water resource scenarios are typically based on high, medium and low projections of demographics (gpcd), climate (precipitation, temperature), and perhaps institutional variables (conveyance infrastructure, legal issues). We discuss the relative merits of this with other approaches including: probabalistic scenarios, which explicitly weight the likelihood of different outcomes; anticipatory scenarios, which consider how to achieve or avoid some subjective future state; strategic scenarios, which seeks to identify the inconsistencies between disciplines in the way the environmental models are constructed

Estimating the potential of carbon sequestration by Korean forestry sector under climate change and management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Kim, M.; Son, Y.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Korean forests have recovered by the national-scale reforestation program and can contribute to the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal. The forest carbon (C) sequestration is expected to change by climate change and forest management regime. In this context, estimating the changes in GHG mitigation potential of Korean forestry sector by climate and management is a timely issue. Thus, we estimated the forest C sequestration of Korea under four scenarios (2010­-2050): constant temperature with no management (CT_No), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 with no management (RCP_No), constant temperature with thinning management (CT_Man), and RCP 8.5 with thinning management (RCP_Man). Dynamic stand growth model (KO-G-Dynamic; for biomass) and forest C model (FBDC model; for non-biomass) were used at approximately 64,000 simulation units (1km2). As model input data, the forest data (e.g., forest type and stand age) and climate data were spatially prepared from the national forest inventories and the RCP 8.5 climate data. The model simulation results showed that the mean annual C sequestrations during the period (Tg C yr-1) were 11.0, 9.9, 11.5, and 10.5, respectively, under the CT_No, RCP_No, CT_Man, and RCP_Man, respectively, at the national scale. The C sequestration decreased with the time passage due to the maturity of the forests. The climate change seemed disadvantageous to the C sequestration by the forest ecosystems (≒ -1.0 Tg C yr-1) due to the increase in organic matter decomposition. In particular, the decrease in C sequestration by the climate change was greater for the needle-leaved species, compared to the broad-leaved species. Meanwhile, the forest management enhanced forest C sequestration (≒ 0.5 Tg C yr-1). Accordingly, implementing appropriate forest management strategies for adaptation would contribute to maintaining the C sequestration by Korean forestry sector under climate change. Acknowledgement: This study was supported

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Management of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Could Dietary Polyphenols Be an Alternative to Existing Therapies?

PubMed Central

Eleazu, Chinedum; Eleazu, Kate; Kalu, Winner

2017-01-01

The incidence of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is gradually on the increase. While conventional drugs such as the α1-adrenergic receptor antagonists and 5α-reductase inhibitors have been found to be useful in the treatment of BPH, the adverse side effects associated with their usage, have led to increased search for alternative means of managing this disease. Furthermore, although surgery has also been suggested to be a sure method, the cost and risks associated with it excludes it as a routine treatment. Dietary polyphenols have gained public interest in recent times due to their roles in the prevention of various diseases that implicate free radicals/reactive oxygen species. However, their roles in the management of BPH have not been explored. Hence, this review on their prospects in the management of BPH and their mechanisms of action. Literature search was carried out in several electronic data bases such as PubMed, Google Scholar, Medline, Agora, and Hinari from1970 to 2017 to identify the current status of knowledge on this concept. The findings from these data bases suggest that while dietary polyphenols may not replace the need for the existing therapies in the management of BPH, they hold promise in BPH management which could be explored by researchers working in this field. PMID:28503148

What we know about the purpose, theoretical foundation, scope and dimensionality of existing self-management measurement tools: A scoping review.

PubMed

Packer, Tanya L; Fracini, America; Audulv, Åsa; Alizadeh, Neda; van Gaal, Betsie G I; Warner, Grace; Kephart, George

2018-04-01

To identify self-report, self-management measures for adults with chronic conditions, and describe their purpose, theoretical foundation, dimensionality (multi versus uni), and scope (generic versus condition specific). A search of four databases (8479 articles) resulted in a scoping review of 28 self-management measures. Although authors identified tools as measures of self-management, wide variation in constructs measured, purpose, and theoretical foundations existed. Subscales on 13 multidimensional tools collectively measure domains of self-management relevant to clients, however no one tool's subscales cover all domains. Viewing self-management as a complex, multidimensional whole, demonstrated that existing measures assess different, related aspects of self-management. Activities and social roles, though important to patients, are rarely measured. Measures with capacity to quantify and distinguish aspects of self-management may promote tailored patient care. In selecting tools for research or assessment, the reason for development, definitions, and theories underpinning the measure should be scrutinized. Our ability to measure self-management must be rigorously mapped to provide comprehensive and system-wide care for clients with chronic conditions. Viewing self-management as a complex whole will help practitioners to understand the patient perspective and their contribution in supporting each individual patient. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

Interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for environmental management under multiple uncertainties.

PubMed

Guo, P; Huang, G H

2010-03-01

In this study, an interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-chance-constrained mixed-integer linear programming (ISIFCIP) approach is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing interval-parameter semi-infinite programming (ISIP) and fuzzy-chance-constrained programming (FCCP) by incorporating uncertainties expressed as dual uncertainties of functional intervals and multiple uncertainties of distributions with fuzzy-interval admissible probability of violating constraint within a general optimization framework. The binary-variable solutions represent the decisions of waste-management-facility expansion, and the continuous ones are related to decisions of waste-flow allocation. The interval solutions can help decision-makers to obtain multiple decision alternatives, as well as provide bases for further analyses of tradeoffs between waste-management cost and system-failure risk. In the application to the City of Regina, Canada, two scenarios are considered. In Scenario 1, the City's waste-management practices would be based on the existing policy over the next 25 years. The total diversion rate for the residential waste would be approximately 14%. Scenario 2 is associated with a policy for waste minimization and diversion, where 35% diversion of residential waste should be achieved within 15 years, and 50% diversion over 25 years. In this scenario, not only landfill would be expanded, but also CF and MRF would be expanded. Through the scenario analyses, useful decision support for the City's solid-waste managers and decision-makers has been generated. Three special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it is useful for tackling multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, functional intervals, probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

PubMed

Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

2015-08-01

This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2005-08-01

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2005-01-01

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

Model predictive control design for polytopic uncertain systems by synthesising multi-step prediction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianbo; Xi, Yugeng; Li, Dewei; Xu, Yuli; Gan, Zhongxue

2018-01-01

A common objective of model predictive control (MPC) design is the large initial feasible region, low online computational burden as well as satisfactory control performance of the resulting algorithm. It is well known that interpolation-based MPC can achieve a favourable trade-off among these different aspects. However, the existing results are usually based on fixed prediction scenarios, which inevitably limits the performance of the obtained algorithms. So by replacing the fixed prediction scenarios with the time-varying multi-step prediction scenarios, this paper provides a new insight into improvement of the existing MPC designs. The adopted control law is a combination of predetermined multi-step feedback control laws, based on which two MPC algorithms with guaranteed recursive feasibility and asymptotic stability are presented. The efficacy of the proposed algorithms is illustrated by a numerical example.

Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

2010-12-01

A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal

Existing capacity to manage pharmaceuticals and related commodities in East Africa: an assessment with specific reference to antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Waako, Paul J; Odoi-adome, Richard; Obua, Celestino; Owino, Erisa; Tumwikirize, Winnie; Ogwal-okeng, Jasper; Anokbonggo, Willy W; Matowe, Lloyd; Aupont, Onesky

2009-01-01

Background East African countries have in the recent past experienced a tremendous increase in the volume of antiretroviral drugs. Capacity to manage these medicines in the region remains limited. Makerere University, with technical assistance from the USAID supported Rational Pharmaceutical Management Plus (RPM Plus) Program of Management Sciences for Health (MSH) established a network of academic institutions to build capacity for pharmaceutical management in the East African region. The initiative includes institutions from Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda and aims to improve access to safe, effective and quality-assured medicines for the treatment of HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria through spearheading in-country capacity. The initiative conducted a regional assessment to determine the existing capacity for the management of antiretroviral drugs and related commodities. Methods Heads and implementing workers of fifty HIV/AIDS programs and institutions accredited to offer antiretroviral services in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda were key informants in face-to-face interviews guided by structured questionnaires. The assessment explored categories of health workers involved in the management of ARVs, their knowledge and practices in selection, quantification, distribution and use of ARVs, nature of existing training programs, training preferences and resources for capacity building. Results Inadequate human resource capacity including, inability to select, quantify and distribute ARVs and related commodities, and irrational prescribing and dispensing were some of the problems identified. A competence gap existed in all the four countries with a variety of healthcare professionals involved in the supply and distribution of ARVs. Training opportunities and resources for capacity development were limited particularly for workers in remote facilities. On-the-job training and short courses were the preferred modes of training. Conclusion There is inadequate capacity for

Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

PubMed

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Brainard, Russell E

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Brainard, Russell E.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario. PMID:27023183

The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

PubMed

Burtles, Jim

2015-01-01

This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Management of onychomycosis and co-existing tinea pedis.

PubMed

Lipner, Shari R; Scher, Richard K

2015-05-01

Onychomycosis is a common nail infection that often co-exists with tinea pedis. Surveys have suggested the diseases co-exist in at least one third of patients, although actual numbers may be a lot higher due to significant under-reporting. The importance of evaluating and treating both diseases is being increasingly recognized, however, data on improved outcomes, and the potential to minimize re-infection are limited. We review a recent post hoc analysis of two large studies treating mild to moderate onychomycosis with efinaconazole topical solution, 10%, demonstrating that complete cure rates of onychomycosis are significantly improved when any co-existing tinea pedis is also treated.

Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chodas, Paul

2016-05-01

In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

Satellite power system (SPS) financial/management scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-10-01

The problems of financing and managing a large-scale, lengthy SPS program reduce to the key questions of ownership and control. Ownership (that is, the sources of capital) may be governmental, corporate, or individual; control may be exercised by a government agency, a government-sanctioned monopoly, or a competitive corporation. Since the R and D phase and the commercial implementation phase of an SPS program are qualitatively very different with respect to length of time before return-on-investment, we have considered two general categories of SPS organizations: (1) organizations capable of carrying out a complete SPS program, from R and D through commercialization;more » (2) organizations capable of carrying out commercial implementation only. Six organizational models for carrying out the complete SPS program have been examined in some detail: 1) existing government agencies (DOE, NASA, etc.); 2) a new government agency, patterned after TVA; 3) a taxpayer stock corporation, a new concept; 4) a trust fund supported by energy taxes, patterned after the financing of the Interstate Highway System; 5) a federal agency financed by bonds, patterned after the Federal National Mortgage Association; and 6) the staging company, a new concept, already in the early stages of implementation as a private venture. Four additional organizational forms have been considered for commercial implementation of SPS: 7) a government-chartered monopoly, patterned after the Communications Satellite Corporation; 8) the consortium model, already widely used for large-scale projects; 9) the corporate socialism model, patterned after such developments as the transcontinental railroad; and 10) the universal capitalism model, a concept partially implemented in the 1976 legislation creating Employee Stock Ownership Plans. A number of qualitative criteria for comparative assessment of these alternatives have been developed.« less

Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

PubMed Central

NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

2016-01-01

Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

PubMed

Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

2016-08-05

Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

PubMed

Sheaff, R

1999-01-01

At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

Evaluation of existing district health management information systems a case study of the district health systems in Kenya.

PubMed

Odhiambo-Otieno, George W

2005-09-01

This paper discusses some of the issues and challenges of implementing appropriate and coordinated District Health Management Information System (DHMIS) in environments dependent on external support especially when insufficient attention has been given to the sustainability of systems. It also discusses fundamental issues which affect the usability of DHMIS to support District Health System (DHS), including meeting user needs and user education in the use of information for management; and the need for integration of data from all health-providing and related organizations in the district. This descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out in three DHSs in Kenya. Data was collected through use of questionnaires, focus group discussions and review of relevant literature, reports and operational manuals of the studied DHMISs. Key personnel at the DHS level were not involved in the development and implementation of the established systems. The DHMISs were fragmented to the extent that their information products were bypassing the very levels they were created to serve. None of the DHMISs was computerized. Key resources for DHMIS operation were inadequate. The adequacy of personnel was 47%, working space 40%, storage space 34%, stationery 20%, 73% of DHMIS staff were not trained, management support was 13%. Information produced was 30% accurate, 19% complete, 26% timely, 72% relevant; the level of confidentiality and use of information at the point of collection stood at 32% and 22% respectively and information security at 48%. Basic DHMIS equipment for information processing was not available. This inhibited effective and efficient provision of information services. An effective DHMIS is essential for DHS planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation activities. Without accurate, timely, relevant and complete information the existing information systems are not capable of facilitating the DHS managers in their day-today operational management. The existing

Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

2014-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales

Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

PubMed

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

2010-11-15

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment wasmore » ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.« less

A web tool for STORET/WQX water quality data retrieval and Best Management Practice scenario suggestion.

PubMed

Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A; Kim, Jonggun; Theller, Larry; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Merwade, Venkatesh; Lim, Kyoung Jae

2015-03-01

Total Maximum Daily Load is a water quality standard to regulate water quality of streams, rivers and lakes. A wide range of approaches are used currently to develop TMDLs for impaired streams and rivers. Flow and load duration curves (FDC and LDC) have been used in many states to evaluate the relationship between flow and pollutant loading along with other models and approaches. A web-based LDC Tool was developed to facilitate development of FDC and LDC as well as to support other hydrologic analyses. In this study, the FDC and LDC tool was enhanced to allow collection of water quality data via the web and to assist in establishing cost-effective Best Management Practice (BMP) implementations. The enhanced web-based tool provides use of water quality data not only from the US Geological Survey but also from the Water Quality Portal for the U.S. via web access. Moreover, the web-based tool identifies required pollutant reductions to meet standard loads and suggests a BMP scenario based on ability of BMPs to reduce pollutant loads, BMP establishment and maintenance costs. In the study, flow and water quality data were collected via web access to develop LDC and to identify the required reduction. The suggested BMP scenario from the web-based tool was evaluated using the EPA Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load model to attain the required pollutant reduction at least cost. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved water resource management using three dimensional groundwater modelling for a highly complex environmental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

2017-04-01

Proper allocation and management of groundwater is an important and critical challenge under rising water demands of various environmental sectors but good groundwater quality is often limited because of urbanization and contamination of aquifers. Given the predictive capability of groundwater models, they are often the only viable means of providing input to water management decisions. However, modelling flow and transport processes can be difficult due to their unknown subsurface heterogeneity and typically unknown distribution of contaminants. As a result water resource management tasks are based on uncertain assumption on contaminants patterns and this uncertainty is typically not incorporated into the assessment of risks associated with different proposed management scenarios. A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area, where drinking water production is close to different former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water into the gravel aquifer is used to create a hydraulic barrier between contaminated sites and drinking water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction and magnitude between existing observation points using a newly developed three point estimation method for a large amount of scenarios was carried out. Due to the numerous observation points 32 triangles (three-points) were created which cover the entire area around the Hardwald. We demonstrated that systematically applying our developed methodology helps to identify important locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions and where additional protection is required without highly computational demanding transport modelling. The presented integrated approach using the flow direction

[Accidental ingestion of dental prostheses; 2 scenarios in the management and outcome. Case reports].

PubMed

Santander-Flores, Selene Artemisa; Mata-Quintero, Carlos Javier; O'Farrill-Anzures, Ricardo; González-Villegas, Paloma; Calvo-Vázquez, Iván; Campos-Serna, Esteban Israel

Foreign body ingestion is the second cause of endoscopic emergency in the elderly, and dentures are the most frequent accidently ingested objects. Once in the stomach, their expulsion can be expected in 4 to 6 days. The treatment is wait and see in asymptomatic patients, but preventive endoscopic removal can also be performed. To present 2 scenarios of the outcome and treatment in patients with foreign body ingestion. Patient under study due to weight loss, with a denture detected by abdominal x-ray, ingested inadvertently a year ago. A laparotomy was required as extraction by colonoscopy failed, due to excessive inflammation. The second case, of 24-hour onset, was due to the ingestion of a partial denture. As duodenal endoscopy extraction was unsuccessful, the patient was kept under observation. When it did not pass the caecum, it was extracted by colonoscopy, with no further complications and shorter hospital stay. Follow-up can be by simple abdominal x-ray, with endoscopic management if there is insufficient progress. In one of our cases, the outcome was unfavourable due to time of ingestion, and endoscopic management was not possible, whereas in the second case colonoscopy was performed early with success. Proper diagnostic and timely treatment mark the difference in the progression and outcome of the ingestion of foreign bodies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, A. E.; Fabos, J. G.; Carlozzi, C. C.

1982-01-01

A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

[The body as the scenario for social vulnerability regarding health].

PubMed

Ortega-Bolaños, Jesús A; Bula-Escobar, Jorge I

2012-10-01

Theoretical reflection concerning the human body within a scenario of social healthcare practices recognizes its nature through ontological dimensions for defining our finiteness and facticity in a world where nobody experiences their own birth or death but rather experiences such events through others. Considering health as an overall process called existence, being conscious of one's own body in terms of dynamic states of health and disease, is related to scenarios where the body has played a central role in the existential experience of the culture which it has built and in which it has been living, as well as in the relationship of knowledge with how power is exercised. Relationships between knowledge, power, resistance and the action of bodies are scenarios concerning social vulnerability regarding health. We wish to raise awareness concerning the relationship between bodies and social vulnerability regarding health as an emergent scenario for promoting discussion dealing with claiming the right to health and the chances of it being positively affected by public health policy from a trans-sector response and a community-based response proposed by Colombian society and culture.

Scenario Decomposition for 0-1 Stochastic Programs: Improvements and Asynchronous Implementation

DOE PAGES

Ryan, Kevin; Rajan, Deepak; Ahmed, Shabbir

2016-05-01

We recently proposed scenario decomposition algorithm for stochastic 0-1 programs finds an optimal solution by evaluating and removing individual solutions that are discovered by solving scenario subproblems. In our work, we develop an asynchronous, distributed implementation of the algorithm which has computational advantages over existing synchronous implementations of the algorithm. Improvements to both the synchronous and asynchronous algorithm are proposed. We also test the results on well known stochastic 0-1 programs from the SIPLIB test library and is able to solve one previously unsolved instance from the test set.

TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

2017-01-01

This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production: Evaluating Best Management Practices for Biofuel Feedstock Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. This study evaluates the improvement of water sustainability through an integrated landscaping management strategy, where landscaping design, land management operations, crop systems, and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) play equal roles. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, with a focus on implementing riparian buffers and converting low productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass while benefiting soil and water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulatemore » the impact of integrated landscape design on nutrients, suspended sediments, and flow on the watershed and subbasin scales. First, the study evaluated the representation of buffer strip as a vegetative barrier and as a riparian buffer using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. For the riparian buffer, the area ratio method tends to be more conservative, especially in nitrate loadings, while the trapping efficiency method generates more optimistic results. The differences between the two methods increase with buffer width. The two methods may not be comparable for the field-scale vegetative barrier simulation because of limitations in model spatial resolution. Landscape scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (1) current land use, (2) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (3) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that when low productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively, in the watershed surface streams. The reduction was less extensive when riparian buffer strips (30 m or 50 m) were applied to the stream network at 1.4% of total

Conducting and Supporting a Goal-Based Scenario Learning Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Joel; And Others

1994-01-01

Discussion of goal-based scenario (GBS) learning environments focuses on a training module designed to prepare consultants with new skills in managing clients, designing user-friendly graphical computer interfaces, and working in a client/server computing environment. Transforming the environment from teaching focused to learning focused is…

44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... accessibility: Existing facilities. (a) General. The agency shall operate each program or activity so that the... facilities accessible to and usable by individuals with handicaps; (2) In the case of historic preservation...

Examining Communities at Risk: Physical and Socioeconomic Impacts of an Earthquake Scenario on the Hayward Fault (The HayWired Scenario)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinitz, L.; Wein, A. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Jones, J. L.

2015-12-01

This research led by the U.S. Geological Survey aims to inform and stimulate the development of plans and policies in disaster management and hazard mitigation that will help improve the capacity of residents, businesses and communities to rebound from disasters. As was evidenced in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, "ghost towns" emerged in neighborhoods with high concentrations of damaged rental housing. Also, rental properties that served predominantly lower income households had more difficulty financing repairs which led to blight and other long-term community recovery challenges. Our approach is to develop a framework for identifying and spatially analyzing communities at risk of long-term displacement and recovery challenges for an earthquake scenario. The HayWired scenario postulates a M7.05 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area with surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and fires, as well as subsequent aftershocks. The analytical framework relies on the literature and prior disaster experience to identify and systematically combine physical and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake sequence with pre-existing socioeconomic conditions to identify areas where housing and building damage, lifeline service disruption, and socioeconomic challenges intersect and can potentially lead to long-term displacements of people, businesses, and jobs. Hazus analyses estimate $46 billion in building damage from the HayWired main shock, which increases by 10-25% due to aftershocks. Heavy damage to large apartment buildings exceeds many other housing types, and preliminary analyses identify neighborhoods where these damage concentrations also intersect with concentrations of low income households. Also, in some counties, the estimated population displaced from severely damaged housing far exceeds the number of vacant housing units, which means residents may be forced to move well away from former neighborhoods and even outside the region

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

PubMed

Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hays, Ross Daniel

Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-12-18

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Vacuum birefringence detection in all-optical scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataman, Stefan

2018-06-01

In this paper we propose an all-optical vacuum birefringence experiment and evaluate its feasibility for various scenarios. Many petawatt-class lasers became operational and many more are expected to enter operation in the near future, therefore unprecedented electromagnetic fields (EL˜1014-1015 V/m and intensities IL˜1021-1023W/cm 2 ) will become available for experiments. In our proposal a petawatt-class laser disturbs the quantum vacuum and creates a delay in a counterpropagating probe laser beam. Placing this delayed beam in one arm of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MZI), allows the measurement of the vacuum refraction coefficient via a phase shift. Coherent as well as squeezed light are both considered and the minimum phase sensitivity evaluated. We show that using existing technology with some moderately optimistic assumptions, at least part of the discussed scenarios are feasible for a vacuum birefringence detection experiment.

Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

2014-12-01

Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

PubMed

Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Web-Based Water Accounting Scenario Platform to Address Uncertainties in Water Resources Management in the Mekong : A Case Study in Ca River Basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apirumanekul, C.; Purkey, D. R.; Pudashine, J.; Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S.; Wang, D.; Ate, P.; Meechaiya, C.

2017-12-01

Rapid economic development in the Mekong Region is placing pressure on environmental resources. Uncertain changes in land-use, increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, migration patterns and climate risks s combined with scarce water resources are increasing water demand in various sectors. More appropriate policies, strategies and planning for sustainable water resource management are urgently needed. Over the last five years, Vietnam has experienced more frequent and intense droughts affecting agricultural and domestic water use during the dry season. The Ca River Basin is the third largest river basin in Vietnam with 35% of its area located in Lao PDR. The delta landscape comprises natural vegetation, forest, paddy fields, farming and urban areas. The Ca River Basin is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that impacts on crop production, farming livelihoods and household water consumption. Water scarcity is exacerbated by uncertainties in policy changes (e.g. changes in land-use, crop types), basin development (e.g. reservoir construction, urban expansion), and climate change (e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and onset of monsoon). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model, with inputs from satellite-based information and institutional data, is used to estimate water supply, water use and water allocation in various sectors (e.g. household, crops, irrigation and flood control) under a wide range of plausible future scenarios in the Ca River Basin. Web-Based Water Allocation Scenario Platform is an online implementation of WEAP model structured in terms of a gaming experience. The online game, as an educational tool, helps key agencies relevant to water resources management understand and explore the complexity of integrated system of river basin under a wide range of scenarios. Performance of the different water resources strategies in Ca River Basin (e.g. change of dam operation to address needs in various sectors, construction of dams, changes

Future Scenarios of Livestock and Land Use in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Abrahão, G. M.

2016-12-01

Brazil currently has about 213 M cattle heads in 151 M ha of pastures. In the last 40 years, both the top 5% and the average stocking rate are increasing exponentially in Brazil, while the relative yield gap has been constant. Using these historical relationships, we estimate future scenarios of livestock and land use in Brazil. We assume a reference scenario for the top 5%, in which pasturelands are adequately fertilized, soil is not compacted and well drained, grasses are never burned, pastures are divided in 8 subdivisions of regular area, are cattle is rotated through the subdivisions. The reference scenario does not consider irrigation or feed supplementation. We calibrate a computer model and run it for the pasturelands throughout the entire country. We conclude that current pastures have about 20% efficiency to raise cattle compared to the reference scenario. Considering the reference scenario, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 100 years, with top 5% with about 9.3 heads per ha and the average 4.3 heads per ha, or 600 M heads of livestock. Considering a more pessimistic scenario, which considers an inflection of the curve in present times, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 60 years, with the top 5% stocking rate equal to 4.3 heads per ha and the average equal to 2.2 heads per ha, or 300 M heads of livestock. Both cases represent a considerable expansion of the livestock, maybe even higher than the growth of the global demands for beef. These scenarios indicate that not all existing pasturelands need to be used in the future - a significant part of them may be converted to croplands, which will also contribute to the reduction of deforestation.

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

2012-12-01

There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

PubMed

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

2012-12-01

The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water

Responding to home maintenance challenge scenarios: the role of selection, optimization, and compensation in aging-in-place.

PubMed

Kelly, Andrew John; Fausset, Cara Bailey; Rogers, Wendy; Fisk, Arthur D

2014-12-01

This study examined potential issues faced by older adults in managing their homes and their proposed solutions for overcoming hypothetical difficulties. Forty-four diverse, independently living older adults (66-85) participated in structured group interviews in which they discussed potential solutions to manage difficulties presented in four scenarios: perceptual, mobility, physical, and cognitive difficulties. The proposed solutions were classified using the Selection, Optimization, and Compensation (SOC) model. Participants indicated they would continue performing most tasks and reported a range of strategies to manage home maintenance challenges. Most participants reported that they would manage home maintenance challenges using compensation; the most frequently mentioned compensation strategy was using tools and technologies. There were also differences across the scenarios: Optimization was discussed most frequently with perceptual and cognitive difficulty scenarios. These results provide insights into supporting older adults' potential needs for aging-in-place and provide evidence of the value of the SOC model in applied research. © The Author(s) 2012.

A comparative analysis of user preference-based and existing knowledge management systems attributes in the aerospace industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varghese, Nishad G.

Knowledge management (KM) exists in various forms throughout organizations. Process documentation, training courses, and experience sharing are examples of KM activities performed daily. The goal of KM systems (KMS) is to provide a tool set which serves to standardize the creation, sharing, and acquisition of business critical information. Existing literature provides numerous examples of targeted evaluations of KMS, focusing on specific system attributes. This research serves to bridge the targeted evaluations with an industry-specific, holistic approach. The user preferences of aerospace employees in engineering and engineering-related fields were compared to profiles of existing aerospace KMS based on three attribute categories: technical features, system administration, and user experience. The results indicated there is a statistically significant difference between aerospace user preferences and existing profiles in the user experience attribute category, but no statistically significant difference in the technical features and system administration attribute categories. Additional analysis indicated in-house developed systems exhibit higher technical features and user experience ratings than commercial-off-the-self (COTS) systems.

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

2010-04-01

The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

PubMed

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mixed waste management options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

1991-12-31

Disposal fees for mixed waste at proposed commercial disposal sites have been estimated to be $15,000 to $40,000 per cubit foot. If such high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and attempts to answer the question: Can mixed waste be managed out of existence? Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatorymore » and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition, no migration petition, and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly.« less

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

An integrated Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS) to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative flow scenarios on river ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maloney, Kelly O.; Talbert, Colin B.; Cole, Jeffrey C.; Galbraith, Heather S.; Blakeslee, Carrie J.; Hanson, Leanne; Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

In regulated rivers, managers must evaluate competing flow release scenarios that attempt to balance both human and natural needs. Meeting these natural flow needs is complex due to the myriad of interacting physical and hydrological factors that affect ecosystems. Tools that synthesize the voluminous scientific data and models on these factors will facilitate management of these systems. Here, we present the Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS), a tool that enables evaluation of competing flow scenarios and other variables on instream habitat. We developed a REFDSS for the Upper Delaware River, USA, a system that is regulated by three headwater reservoirs. This version of the REFDSS has the ability to integrate any set of spatially explicit data and synthesizes modeled discharge for three competing management scenarios, flow-specific 2-D hydrodynamic modeled estimates of local hydrologic conditions (e.g., depth, velocity, shear stress, etc.) at a fine pixel-scale (1 m2), and habitat suitability criteria (HSC) for a variety of taxa. It contains all individual model outputs, computationally integrates these data, and outputs the amount of potentially available habitat for a suite of species of interest under each flow release scenario. Users have the flexibility to change the time period of interest and vary the HSC. The REFDSS was developed to enable side-by-side evaluation of different flow management scenarios and their effects on potential habitat availability, allowing managers to make informed decisions on the best flow scenarios. An exercise comparing two alternative flow scenarios to a baseline scenario for several key species is presented. The Upper Delaware REFDSS was robust to minor changes in HSC (± 10 %). The general REFDSS platform was developed as a user-friendly Windows desktop application that was designed to include other potential parameters of interest (e.g., temperature) and for transferability to other riverine systems.

Improved water resource management for a highly complex environment using three-dimensional groundwater modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Dressmann, Horst; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

2018-02-01

A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area in north-west Switzerland, where drinking-water production is close to former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking-water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water is used to create a hydraulic barrier between the contaminated sites and drinking-water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction between existing observation points using a developed three-point estimation method for a large number of scenarios was carried out. It is demonstrated that systematically applying the developed methodology helps to identify vulnerable locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions such as those arising from changes to artificial groundwater recharge rates. At these locations, additional investigations and protection are required. The presented integrated approach, using the groundwater flow direction between observation points, can be easily transferred to a variety of hydrological settings to systematically evaluate groundwater modelling scenarios.

Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

PubMed Central

Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

2016-01-01

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

PubMed

Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

2016-08-31

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vajk, J. P.

1978-01-01

The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

2012-01-01

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

PubMed

Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

2016-05-15

For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

Current approaches to challenging scenarios in myeloproliferative neoplasms.

PubMed

Zimran, Eran; Hoffman, Ronald; Kremyanskaya, Marina

2018-06-01

The Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) including polycythemia vera, essential thrombocythemia and primary myelofibrosis are clonal hematological malignancies that originate at the level of the hematopoietic stem cell, and are characterized by excessive proliferation of cells belonging to one or more of the myeloid lineages. Central to the pathogenesis of the MPNs is constitutive activation of the JAK/STAT signaling pathway due to a family of driver mutations affecting JAK2, CALR or MPL. These disorders share common clinical and laboratory features, a significant burden of systemic symptoms, increased risk of developing arterial and venous thrombotic events, and the potential to progress to myelofibrosis and acute leukemia. Areas covered: We identified four clinical situations which represent challenging management dilemmas for patients with MPNs. Our conclusions and recommendations are based on a literature search using MEDLINE and recent meeting abstracts using the keywords, focusing on publications directly addressing these scenarios and on recent contributions to the field. Expert commentary: Multi-center efforts to study large cohorts of MPN patients have led to more uniform and evidence-based approaches to key aspects in MPN management. However, treatment strategies to deal with specific clinical scenarios are lacking.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

2016-07-01

The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521. �

Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

2016-04-01

In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

44 CFR 16.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Program accessibility: Existing facilities. 16.150 Section 16.150 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... IN PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY § 16.150 Program...

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

PubMed

Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

2013-09-01

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Soulard, Christopher E.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken heremore » is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.« less

Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kecskes, Csaba

2002-05-01

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

PubMed

Kecskes, Csaba

2002-05-01

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter. c2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

41 CFR 60-1.45 - Existing contracts and subcontracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Existing contracts and subcontracts. 60-1.45 Section 60-1.45 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to... OF LABOR 1-OBLIGATIONS OF CONTRACTORS AND SUBCONTRACTORS Ancillary Matters § 60-1.45 Existing...

41 CFR 60-1.45 - Existing contracts and subcontracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Existing contracts and subcontracts. 60-1.45 Section 60-1.45 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to... OF LABOR 1-OBLIGATIONS OF CONTRACTORS AND SUBCONTRACTORS Ancillary Matters § 60-1.45 Existing...

Determining the Supply of Material Resources for High-Rise Construction: Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnullina, Anna; Vasiliev, Vladimir

2018-03-01

This article presents a multi-criteria approach to determining the supply of material resources for high-rise construction under certain and uncertain conditions, which enables integrating a number of existing models into a fairly compact generalised economic and mathematical model developed for two extreme scenarios.

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

PubMed

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

PubMed

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

Using Geo-Data Corporately on the Response Phase of Emergency Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir Ozbek, E.; Ates, S.; Aydinoglu, A. C.

2015-08-01

Response phase of emergency management is the most complex phase in the entire cycle because it requires cooperation between various actors relating to emergency sectors. A variety of geo-data is needed at the emergency response such as; existing data provided by different institutions and dynamic data collected by different sectors at the time of the disaster. Disaster event is managed according to elaborately defined activity-actor-task-geodata cycle. In this concept, every activity of emergency response is determined with Standard Operation Procedure that enables users to understand their tasks and required data in any activity. In this study, a general conceptual approach for disaster and emergency management system is developed based on the regulations to serve applications in Istanbul Governorship Provincial Disaster and Emergency Directorate. The approach is implemented to industrial facility explosion example. In preparation phase, optimum ambulance locations are determined according to general response time of the ambulance to all injury cases in addition to areas that have industrial fire risk. Management of the industrial fire case is organized according to defined actors, activities, and working cycle that describe required geo-data. A response scenario was prepared and performed for an industrial facility explosion event to exercise effective working cycle of actors. This scenario provides using geo-data corporately between different actors while required data for each task is defined to manage the industrial facility explosion event. Following developing web technologies, this scenario based approach can be effective to use geo-data on the web corporately.

Systematic Evaluation of Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Food Waste Management Strategies in the United States.

PubMed

Hodge, Keith L; Levis, James W; DeCarolis, Joseph F; Barlaz, Morton A

2016-08-16

New regulations and targets limiting the disposal of food waste have been recently enacted in numerous jurisdictions. This analysis evaluated selected environmental implications of food waste management policies using life-cycle assessment. Scenarios were developed to evaluate management alternatives applicable to the waste discarded at facilities where food waste is a large component of the waste (e.g., restaurants, grocery stores, and food processors). Options considered include anaerobic digestion (AD), aerobic composting, waste-to-energy combustion (WTE), and landfilling, and multiple performance levels were considered for each option. The global warming impact ranged from approximately -350 to -45 kg CO2e Mg(-1) of waste for scenarios using AD, -190 to 62 kg CO2e Mg(-1) for those using composting, -350 to -28 kg CO2e Mg(-1) when all waste was managed by WTE, and -260 to 260 kg CO2e Mg(-1) when all waste was landfilled. Landfill diversion was found to reduce emissions, and diverting food waste from WTE generally increased emissions. The analysis further found that when a 20 year GWP was used instead of a 100 year GWP, every scenario including WTE was preferable to every scenario including landfill. Jurisdictions seeking to enact food waste disposal regulations should consider regional factors and material properties before duplicating existing statutes.

Predicting wading bird and aquatic faunal responses to ecosystem restoration scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Trexler, Joel C.; Catano, Christopher P.

2017-01-01

In large-scale conservation decisions, scenario planning identifies key uncertainties of ecosystem function linked to ecological drivers affected by management, incorporates ecological feedbacks, and scales up to answer questions robust to alternative futures. Wetland restoration planning requires an understanding of how proposed changes in surface hydrology, water storage, and landscape connectivity affect aquatic animal composition, productivity, and food-web function. In the Florida Everglades, reintroduction of historical hydrologic patterns is expected to increase productivity of all trophic levels. Highly mobile indicator species such as wading birds integrate secondary productivity from aquatic prey (small fishes and crayfish) over the landscape. To evaluate how fish, crayfish, and wading birds may respond to alternative hydrologic restoration plans, we compared predicted small fish density, crayfish density and biomass, and wading bird occurrence for existing conditions to four restoration scenarios that varied water storage and removal of levees and canals (i.e. decompartmentalization). Densities of small fish and occurrence of wading birds are predicted to increase throughout most of the Everglades under all restoration options because of increased flows and connectivity. Full decompartmentalization goes furthest toward recreating hypothesized historical patterns of fish density by draining excess water ponded by levees and hydrating areas that are currently drier than in the past. In contrast, crayfish density declined and species composition shifted under all restoration options because of lengthened hydroperiods (i.e. time of inundation). Under full decompartmentalization, the distribution of increased prey available for wading birds shifted south, closer to historical locations of nesting activity in Everglades National Park.

Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Brewington, L.; Finucane, M.

2015-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui in Hawai'i has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to both surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for sustainable future freshwater supply in Hawai'i requires adaptive policies and decision-making that emphasizes private and public partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. We have downscaled dynamical climate models to 1 km resolution in Maui and coupled them with a USGS Water Budget model and a participatory scenario building process to quantify future changes in island-scale climate and groundwater recharge under different land uses. Although these projections are uncertain, the integrated nature of the Pacific RISA research program has allowed us to take a multi-pronged approach to facilitate the uptake of climate information into policy and management. This presentation details the ongoing work to support the development of Hawai'i's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of ~100 decision-makers in state and local government, watershed restoration, agriculture, and conservation to 1) determine the type of information (climate variables, land use and development, agricultural practices) they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of nested scenarios that represent alternative climate and management futures. This integration of knowledge is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives of complex futures comprised of information at multiple scales. We will present an overview of the downscaling, scenario building, hydrological modeling processes, and stakeholder response.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

PubMed

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling moose–forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeJager, Nathan R.; Rohweder, Jason; Miranda, Brian R.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Fox, Timothy J.; Romanski, Mark C.

2017-01-01

Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios. We contrasted a 100-yr future without wolves (no predation) with two predation scenarios (weak, long-term average predation rates and strong, higher than average rates). Increasing predation rates led to lower peak moose population densities, lower biomass removal rates, and higher estimates of forage availability and landscape carrying capacity, especially during the first 40 yr of simulations. Thereafter, moose population density was similar for all predation scenarios, but available forage biomass and the carrying capacity of the landscape continued to diverge among predation scenarios. Changes in total aboveground live biomass and species composition were most pronounced in the no predation and weak predation scenarios. Consistent with smaller-scale studies, high browsing rates led to reductions in the biomass of heavily browsed Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, and Abies balsamea, and increases in the biomass of unbrowsed Picea glauca and Picea mariana, especially after the simulation year 2050, when existing boreal hardwood stands at Isle Royale are projected to senesce. As a consequence, lower predation rates corresponded with a landscape that progressively shifted toward dominance by Picea glauca and Picea mariana, and lacking available forage biomass. Consistencies with previously documented

Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2014-05-01

Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Modification of Obstetric Emergency Simulation Scenarios for Realism in a Home-Birth Setting.

PubMed

Komorowski, Janelle; Andrighetti, Tia; Benton, Melissa

2017-01-01

Clinical competency and clear communication are essential for intrapartum care providers who encounter high-stakes, low-frequency emergencies. The challenge for these providers is to maintain infrequently used skills. The challenge is even more significant for midwives who manage births at home and who, due to low practice volume and low-risk clientele, may rarely encounter an emergency. In addition, access to team simulation may be limited for home-birth midwives. This project modified existing validated obstetric simulation scenarios for a home-birth setting. Twelve certified professional midwives (CPMs) in active home-birth practice participated in shoulder dystocia and postpartum hemorrhage simulations. The simulations were staged to resemble home-birth settings, supplies, and personnel. Fidelity (realism) of the simulations was assessed with the Simulation Design Scale, and satisfaction and self-confidence were assessed with the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale. Both utilized a 5-point Likert scale, with higher scores suggesting greater levels of fidelity, participant satisfaction, and self-confidence. Simulation Design Scale scores indicated participants agreed fidelity was achieved for the home-birth setting, while scores on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning indicated high levels of participant satisfaction and self-confidence. If offered without modification, simulation scenarios designed for use in hospitals may lose fidelity for home-birth midwives, particularly in the environmental and psychological components. Simulation is standard of care in most settings, an excellent vehicle for maintaining skills, and some evidence suggests it results in improved perinatal outcomes. Additional study is needed in this area to support home-birth providers in maintaining skills. This pilot study suggests that simulation scenarios intended for hospital use can be successfully adapted to the home-birth setting. © 2016 by

A guide to wound managment in palliative care.

PubMed

Naylor, Wayne A

2005-11-01

Wound management in palliative patients is often a very challenging area of care. There are many unique issues that can combine to produce complicated wound management scenarios, including the types of wounds and wound symptoms most commonly affecting palliative care patients, as well as the presence of concurrent disease and associated treatment. Problems exist with the availability of suitable dressings and balancing life expectancy with the goals of wound care. A significant, and possibly under-recognized, issue is the emotional and social distress experienced by these patients, which can be directly attributed to their wound. These problems must all be recognized and addressed in order to manage wounds effectively in this patient population. This article aims to explore these issues and offer advice on the management of wound-related symptoms, with the ultimate goal of improving patients' quality of life.

Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

PubMed

Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

2017-12-01

Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Team-based model for non-operating room airway management: validation using a simulation-based study.

PubMed

DeMaria, S; Berman, D J; Goldberg, A; Lin, H-M; Khelemsky, Y; Levine, A I

2016-07-01

Non-operating room (non-OR) airway management has previously been identified as an area of concern because it carries a significant risk for complications. One reason for this could be attributed to the independent practice of residents in these situations. The aim of the present study was to ascertain whether differences in performance exist between residents working alone vs with a resident partner when encountering simulated non-OR airway management scenarios. Thirty-six anaesthesia residents were randomized into two groups. Each group experienced three separate scenarios (two scenarios initially and then a third 6 weeks later). The scenarios consisted of one control scenario and two critical event scenarios [i.e. asystole during laryngoscopy and pulseless electrical activity (PEA) upon post-intubation institution of positive pressure ventilation]. One group experienced the simulated non-OR scenarios alone (Solo group). The other group consisted of resident pairs, participating in the same three scenarios (Team group). Although the time to intubation did not differ between the Solo and Team groups, there were several differences in performance. The Team group received better overall performance ratings for the asystole (8.5 vs 5.5 out of 10; P<0.001) and PEA (8.5 vs 5.8 out of 10; P<0.001) scenarios. The Team group was also able to recognize asystole and PEA conditions faster than the Solo group [10.1 vs 23.5 s (P<0.001) and 13.3 vs 36.0 s (P<0.001), respectively]. Residents who performed a simulated intubation with a second trained provider had better overall performance than those who practised independently. The residents who practised in a group were also faster to diagnose serious complications, including peri-intubation asystole and PEA. Given these data, it is reasonable that training programmes consider performing all non-OR airway management with a team-based method. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British

Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: the Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.

PubMed

Christensen, Jette; El Allaki, Farouk; Vallières, André

2014-05-01

Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances - the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes. Our objective was to propose a systematic approach to present changes to an existing scenario tree model for freedom from disease. We used the example of how we adapted the deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza scenario tree model published in 2011 to a stochastic scenario tree model where the definition of sub-populations and the estimation of probability of introduction of the pathogen were modified. We found that the standardized approach by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) with modifications provided a systematic approach to make and present changes to an existing scenario tree model. We believe that the new 2013 CanNAISS scenario tree model is a better model than the 2011 model because the 2013 model included more surveillance data. In particular, the new data on Notifiable Avian Influenza in Canada from the last 5 years were used to improve input parameters and model structure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

PubMed

Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

2017-01-01

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Providing image management and communication functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayhoff, Ruth E.; Maloney, Daniel L.

1990-08-01

The effective delivery of health care has become increasingly dependent on a wide range of medical data which includes a variety of images. Manual and computer-based medical records ordinarily do not contain image data, leaving the physician to deal with a fragmented patient record widely scattered throughout the hospital. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is currently installing a prototype hospital information system (HIS) workstation network to demonstrate the feasibility of providing image management and communications (IMAC) functionality as an integral part of an existing hospital information system. The core of this system is a database management system adapted to handle images as a new data type. A general model for this integration is discussed and specifics of the hospital-wide network of image display workstations are given.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

The real world and lunar base activation scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, Harrison H.

1992-01-01

A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

Evaluation of introduction scenarios for a broadband access network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocker, Geert-Jan; Cuthbert, Laurie; Gobbi, Roberta; Inch, Robert; Sara, Lini

1995-02-01

The provision of broadband services at a reasonable cost to residential and small business customers is one of the major challenges facing operators. The introduction of cost-effective systems considering the existing infrastructure is an important study. Within the RACE project 2024 Broadband Access Facilities, the economic and evolution aspects of different introduction scenarios of a broadband access system suitable for providing these services are investigated. This paper presents the final results of this study.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

A rare challenging case of co-existent craniopharyngioma, acromegaly and squamous cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Fountas, Athanasios; Chai, Shu Teng; Ayuk, John; Gittoes, Neil; Chavda, Swarupsinh; Karavitaki, Niki

2018-01-01

Co-existence of craniopharyngioma and acromegaly has been very rarely reported. A 65-year-old man presented with visual deterioration, fatigue and frontal headaches. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed a suprasellar heterogeneous, mainly cystic, 1.9 × 2 × 1.9 cm mass compressing the optic chiasm and expanding to the third ventricle; the findings were consistent with a craniopharyngioma. Pituitary hormone profile showed hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, mildly elevated prolactin, increased insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and normal thyroid function and cortisol reserve. The patient had transsphenoidal surgery and pathology of the specimen was diagnostic of adamantinomatous craniopharyngioma. Post-operatively, he had diabetes insipidus, hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and adrenocorticotropic hormone and thyroid-stimulating hormone deficiency. Despite the hypopituitarism, his IGF-1 levels remained elevated and subsequent oral glucose tolerance test did not show complete growth hormone (GH) suppression. Further review of the pre-operative imaging revealed a 12 × 4 mm pituitary adenoma close to the right carotid artery and no signs of pituitary hyperplasia. At that time, he was also diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma of the left upper lung lobe finally managed with radical radiotherapy. Treatment with long-acting somatostatin analogue was initiated leading to biochemical control of the acromegaly. Latest imaging has shown no evidence of craniopharyngioma regrowth and stable adenoma. This is a unique case report of co-existence of craniopharyngioma, acromegaly and squamous lung cell carcinoma that highlights diagnostic and management challenges. Potential effects of the GH hypersecretion on the co-existent tumours of this patient are also briefly discussed. Although an extremely rare clinical scenario, craniopharyngioma and acromegaly can co-exist; aetiopathogenic link between these two conditions is unlikely.Meticulous review of unexpected

Using Rapid-Response Scenario-Building Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, K. A.; Stoepler, T. M.; Schuster, R.

2015-12-01

Rapid-response scenario-building methodology can be modified to develop scenarios for slow-onset disasters associated with climate change such as drought. Results of a collaboration between the Department of the Interior (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) and the Southwest Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience Project are presented in which SSG scenario-building methods were revised and applied to climate change adaptation planning in Colorado's Gunnison Basin, United States. The SSG provides the DOI with the capacity to rapidly assemble multidisciplinary teams of experts to develop scenarios of the potential environmental, social, and economic cascading consequences of environmental crises, and to analyze these chains to determine actionable intervention points. By design, the SSG responds to acute events of a relatively defined duration. As a capacity-building exercise, the SSG explored how its scenario-building methodology could be applied to outlining the cascading consequences of slow-onset events related to climate change. SSG staff facilitated two workshops to analyze the impacts of drought, wildfire, and insect outbreak in the sagebrush and spruce-fir ecosystems. Participants included local land managers, natural and social scientists, ranchers, and other stakeholders. Key findings were: 1) scenario framing must be adjusted to accommodate the multiple, synergistic components and longer time frames of slow-onset events; 2) the development of slow-onset event scenarios is likely influenced by participants having had more time to consider potential consequences, relative to acute events; 3) participants who are from the affected area may have a more vested interest in the outcome and/or may be able to directly implement interventions.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Qin; Florita, Anthony R; Krishnan, Venkat K

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced.more » The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.« less

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, William V.; Kopp, Robert E.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, Chris

2017-01-01

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

[New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

PubMed

Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

2012-07-01

With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Key strategies to improve systems for managing patient complaints within health facilities - what can we learn from the existing literature?

PubMed

Mirzoev, Tolib; Kane, Sumit

2018-01-01

Information from patient complaints - a widely accepted measure of patient satisfaction with services - can inform improvements in service quality, and contribute towards overall health systems performance. While analyses of data from patient complaints received much emphasis, there is limited published literature on key interventions to improve complaint management systems. The objectives are two-fold: first, to synthesise existing evidence and provide practical options to inform future policy and practice and, second, to identify key outstanding gaps in the existing literature to inform agenda for future research. We report results of review of the existing literature. Peer-reviewed published literature was searched in OVID Medline, OVID Global Health and PubMed. In addition, relevant citations from the reviewed articles were followed up, and we also report grey literature from the UK and the Netherlands. Effective interventions can improve collection of complaints (e.g. establishing easy-to-use channels and raising patients' awareness of these), analysis of complaint data (e.g. creating structures and spaces for analysis and learning from complaints data), and subsequent action (e.g. timely feedback to complainants and integrating learning from complaints into service quality improvement). No one single measure can be sufficient, and any intervention to improve patient complaint management system must include different components, which need to be feasible, effective, scalable, and sustainable within local context. Effective interventions to strengthen patient complaints systems need to be: comprehensive, integrated within existing systems, context-specific and cognizant of the information asymmetry and the unequal power relations between the key actors. Four gaps in the published literature represent an agenda for future research: limited understanding of contexts of effective interventions, absence of system-wide approaches, lack of evidence from low- and

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-02-05

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8-61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9-58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3-45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47, and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Nutrient inputs and hydrology together determine biogeochemical status of the Loire River (France): Current situation and possible future scenarios.

PubMed

Garnier, Josette; Ramarson, Antsiva; Billen, Gilles; Théry, Sylvain; Thiéry, Dominique; Thieu, Vincent; Minaudo, Camille; Moatar, Florentina

2018-10-01

The Grafs-Seneque/Riverstrahler model was implemented for the first time on the Loire River for the 2002-2014 period, to explore eutrophication after improvement of wastewater treatments. The model reproduced the interannual levels and seasonal trends of the major water quality variables. Although eutrophication has been impressively reduced in the drainage network, a eutrophication risk still exists at the coast, as shown by the N-ICEP indicator, pointing out an excess of nitrogen over silica and phosphorus. From maximum biomass exceeding 120 μgChla l -1 in the 1980's, we observed decreasing maximum values from 80 to 30 μgChla l -1 during the period studied. Several scenarios were explored. Regarding nutrient point sources, a low wastewater treatment scenario, similar to the situation in the 1980's, was elaborated, representing much greater pollution than the reference period (2002-2014). For diffuse sources, two agricultural scenarios were elaborated for reducing nitrogen, one with a strict application of the agricultural directives and another investigating the impact of radical structural changes in agriculture and the population's diet. Although reduced, a risk of eutrophication would remain, even with the most drastic scenario. In addition, a pristine scenario, with no human activity within the basin, was devised to assess water quality in a natural state. The impact of a change in hydrology on the Loire biogeochemical functioning was also explored according to the effect of climate change by the end of the 21st century. The EROS hydrological model was used to force Riverstrahler, considering the most pessimistic SRES A2 scenario run with the ARPEGE model. Nutrient fluxes all decreased due to a >50% reduction in the average annual discharge, overall reducing the risk of coastal eutrophication, but worsening the water quality status of the river network. The Riverstrahler model could be useful to help water managers contend with future threats in the

Alternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricultural landscape and implications for bird communities.

PubMed

Blank, Peter J; Williams, Carol L; Sample, David W; Meehan, Timothy D; Turner, Monica G

2016-01-01

Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will

Periprocedural Management of Non-Vitamin K Oral Anticoagulants in Chronic Kidney Disease: A Review of Existing Heterogeneity and Contemporary Evidence.

PubMed

Gunasekaran, Prasad; Parashara, Deepak K

2015-12-01

Non vitamin-K oral anticoagulants (NOAC) have considerably enhanced anticoagulation practice for non-valvular atrial fibrillation with specific advantages of fixed dosing, non-fluctuant therapeutic levels and obviation of therapeutic level monitoring. NOAC pharmacology is remarkable for considerable renal excretion. Heterogeneity in the precise time cut-offs for discontinuation of NOACs prior to elective surgical or percutaneous procedures arise from the non-linear variations of drug excretion with different levels of creatinine clearances as in chronic kidney disease. Multiple authors have suggested cut-offs leading to ambiguity among practicing clinicians. Recent data pertaining to systemic thromboembolism, stroke and major bleeding derived from randomized controlled clinical trials have simplified the periprocedural management of NOACs. This review focusses on heterogeneity in the management of NOACs in patients with CKD in this peculiar scenario and highlights the contemporary evidence to support a unified approach towards perioperative management of NOACs. Multiple antidotes targeted towards binding of specific NOACs have been developed and are in the testing phase, thereby offering immense potential for rapid and complete reversal of NOAC activity in emergent procedures and major bleeding episodes. Targeted research on thromboembolism, stroke and major bleeding following temporary periprocedural interruption of NOACs using multicentric registries could further expand the clinical utility of these agents.

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e

Information basis for developing comprehensive waste management system-US-Japan joint nuclear energy action plan waste management working group phase I report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutt, M.; Nuclear Engineering Division

2010-05-25

The activity of Phase I of the Waste Management Working Group under the United States - Japan Joint Nuclear Energy Action Plan started in 2007. The US-Japan JNEAP is a bilateral collaborative framework to support the global implementation of safe, secure, and sustainable, nuclear fuel cycles (referred to in this document as fuel cycles). The Waste Management Working Group was established by strong interest of both parties, which arise from the recognition that development and optimization of waste management and disposal system(s) are central issues of the present and future nuclear fuel cycles. This report summarizes the activity of themore » Waste Management Working Group that focused on consolidation of the existing technical basis between the U.S. and Japan and the joint development of a plan for future collaborative activities. Firstly, the political/regulatory frameworks related to nuclear fuel cycles in both countries were reviewed. The various advanced fuel cycle scenarios that have been considered in both countries were then surveyed and summarized. The working group established the working reference scenario for the future cooperative activity that corresponds to a fuel cycle scenario being considered both in Japan and the U.S. This working scenario involves transitioning from a once-through fuel cycle utilizing light water reactors to a one-pass uranium-plutonium fuel recycle in light water reactors to a combination of light water reactors and fast reactors with plutonium, uranium, and minor actinide recycle, ultimately concluding with multiple recycle passes primarily using fast reactors. Considering the scenario, current and future expected waste streams, treatment and inventory were discussed, and the relevant information was summarized. Second, the waste management/disposal system optimization was discussed. Repository system concepts were reviewed, repository design concepts for the various classifications of nuclear waste were summarized, and the

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Impacts of future radiation management scenarios on terrestrial carbon dynamics simulated with fully coupled NorESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Altug; Tjiputra, Jerry; Grini, Alf; Muri, Helene

2017-04-01

We have simulated 3 different radiation management geoengineering methods (CCT - cirrus cloud thinning; SAI - stratospheric aerosol injection; MSB - marine sky brightening) on top of future RCP8.5 scenario with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A globally consistent cooling in both atmosphere and soil is observed with all methods. However, precipitation patterns are dependent on the used method. Globally CCT and MSB methods do not affect the vegetation carbon budget, while SAI leads to a loss compared to RCP8.5 simulations. Spatially the most sensitive region is the tropics. Here, the changes in vegetation carbon content are related to the precipitation changes. Increase in soil carbon is projected in all three methods, the biggest change seen in SAI method. Simulations with CCT method leads to twice as much soil carbon retention in the tropics compared to the MSB method. Our findings show that there are unforeseen regional consequences of such geoengineering methods in the biogeochemical cycles and they should be considered with care in future climate policies.

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Permitting Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Aaron L; Young, Katherine R

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including permitting. Activities required for permitting, such as the associated environmental reviews, can take a considerable amount of time and delay project development. This paper discusses the impacts to geothermal development timelines due to the permitting challenges, including the regulatory framework, environmental review process, and ancillary permits. We identified barriers that have the potential to prevent geothermal development or delay timelines and defined improvement scenarios that could assist in expediting geothermal development and permitting timelines and lead to the deployment of additional geothermal resources by 2030 and 2050: (1) themore » creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices as well as (2) an expansion of existing categorical exclusions applicable to geothermal development on Bureau of Land Management public lands to include the oil and gas categorical exclusions passed as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. We utilized the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) to forecast baseline geothermal deployment based on previous analysis of geothermal project development and permitting timelines. The model results forecast that reductions in geothermal project timelines can have a significant impact on geothermal deployment. For example, using the ReEDS model, we estimated that reducing timelines by two years, perhaps due to the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices, could result in deployment of an additional 204 MW by 2030 and 768 MW by 2050 - a 13% improvement when compared to the business as usual scenario. The model results forecast that a timeline improvement of four years - for example with an expansion of existing

Implementation of partnership management model of SMK (Vocational High School) with existing industries in mechanical engineering expertise in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumbodo, Wirawan; Pardjono, Samsudi, Rahadjo, Winarno Dwi

2018-03-01

This study aims to determine the existing conditions of implementation of partnership management model of SMK with the industry on the mechanical engineering expertise in Central Java. The method used is descriptive analysis. The research result shows that the implementation of partnership management model of SMK based on new existing industry produces ready graduates of 62.5% which belongs to low category, although the partnership program of SMK with the industry is done well with the average score of 3.17. As many as 37.5% of SMK graduates of Mechanical Engineering Expertise Program choose to continue their studies or to be an entrepreneur. It is expected that the partnership model of SMK with the industry can be developed into a reference for government policy in developing SMK that is able to produce graduates who are ready to work according to the needs of partner industry.

Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.

2006-12-01

In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

Application of life cycle assessment for hospital solid waste management: A case study.

PubMed

Ali, Mustafa; Wang, Wenping; Chaudhry, Nawaz

2016-10-01

This study was meant to determine environmental aspects of hospital waste management scenarios using a life cycle analysis approach. The survey for this study was conducted at the largest hospital in a major city of Pakistan. The hospital was thoroughly analyzed from November 2014 to January 2015 to quantify its wastes by category. The functional unit of the study was selected as 1 tonne of disposable solid hospital waste. System boundaries included transportation of hospital solid waste and its treatment and disposal by landfilling, incineration, composting, and material recycling methods. These methods were evaluated based on their greenhouse gas emissions. Landfilling and incineration turned out to be the worst final disposal alternatives, whereas composting and material recovery displayed savings in emissions. An integrated system (composting, incineration, and material recycling) was found as the best solution among the evaluated scenarios. This study can be used by policymakers for the formulation of an integrated hospital waste management plan. This study deals with environmental aspects of hospital waste management scenarios. It is an increasing area of concern in many developing and resource-constrained countries of the world. The life cycle analysis (LCA) approach is a useful tool for estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from different waste management activities. There is a shortage of information in existing literature regarding LCA of hospital wastes. To the best knowledge of the authors this work is the first attempt at quantifying the environmental footprint of hospital waste in Pakistan.

Using Hydraulic Modeling to Evaluate Lateral Connectivity Improvements under Alternative Restoration Scenarios in the Atchafalaya River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayden-Lesmeister, A.; Remo, J. W.; Piazza, B.

2017-12-01

The Atchafalaya River (AR) in Louisiana is the principal distributary of the Mississippi River. Reach to system scale modifications on the AR and throughout its basin for regional flood mitigation, navigation, and hydrocarbon extraction have substantially altered the hydrologic connectivity between the river and its floodplain wetlands, threatening the ecological integrity of this globally-important ecosystem. Stakeholder groups agree that restoring flow connectivity is essential to maintaining the basin's water quality, and recent management efforts have focused on the 174 km2 Flat Lake Water Management Unit (WMU). Several flow-connectivity enhancement projects have been proposed by the Atchafalaya Basin Program's Technical Advisory Group, but none have been constructed. We collaborated with The Nature Conservancy and other agencies to obtain existing datasets and develop a 1D2D hydraulic model to examine whether proposed restoration projects improved lateral surface-water connectivity in the Flat Lake WMU. To do this, we employed a range of physical parameters (inundation extent, water depths, and rates of WSEL reduction) as potential indicators of improved connectivity with restoration. We ran simulations to examine two scenarios - a baseline scenario (S1) to examine current conditions (no restoration projects), and a full-implementation scenario (S2), where all restoration projects that could be examined at the model resolution were implemented. Potential indicators of improved lateral connectivity indicated that proposed projects may play an important role in improving water quality in the Flat Lake WMU. At the end of the constant-discharge portion of the run, average depths between S1 and S2 remained unchanged; however, depths and water levels were consistently lower for S2 during a drawdown. Volumetrically, up to 4.4 million m3 less water was in the Flat Lake system when projects were implemented. The results indicate that projects introduce nutrient

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

PubMed

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.

1997-01-01

ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried

Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

Multi-machine analysis of termination scenarios with comparison to simulations of controlled shutdown of ITER discharges

DOE PAGES

de Vries, Peter C.; Luce, Timothy C.; Bae, Young-soon; ...

2017-11-22

To improve our understanding of the dynamics and control of ITER terminations, a study has been carried out on data from existing tokamaks. The aim of this joint analysis is to compare the assumptions for ITER terminations with the present experience basis. The study examined the parameter ranges in which present day devices operated during their terminations, as well as the dynamics of these parameters. The analysis of a database, built using a selected set of experimental termination cases, showed that, the H-mode density decays slower than the plasma current ramp-down. The consequential increase in f_GW limits the duration ofmore » the H-mode phase or result in disruptions. The lower temperatures after the drop out of H-mode will allow the plasma internal inductance to increase. But vertical stability control remains manageable in ITER at high internal inductance when accompanied by a strong elongation reduction. This will result in ITER terminations remaining longer at low q (q₉₅~3) than most present-day devices during the current ramp-down. A fast power ramp-down leads to a larger change in β_p at the H-L transition, but the experimental data showed that these are manageable for the ITER radial position control. The analysis of JET data shows that radiation and impurity levels significantly alter the H-L transition dynamics. Self-consistent calculations of the impurity content and resulting radiation should be taken into account when modelling ITER termination scenarios. Here, the results from this analysis can be used to better prescribe the inputs for the detailed modelling and preparation of ITER termination scenarios.« less

Multi-machine analysis of termination scenarios with comparison to simulations of controlled shutdown of ITER discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vries, P. C.; Luce, T. C.; Bae, Y. S.; Gerhardt, S.; Gong, X.; Gribov, Y.; Humphreys, D.; Kavin, A.; Khayrutdinov, R. R.; Kessel, C.; Kim, S. H.; Loarte, A.; Lukash, V. E.; de la Luna, E.; Nunes, I.; Poli, F.; Qian, J.; Reinke, M.; Sauter, O.; Sips, A. C. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J.; Treutterer, W.; Teplukhina, A. A.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Woo, M. H.; Wolfe, S.; Zabeo, L.; the Alcator C-MOD Team; the ASDEX Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; the EAST Team; contributors, JET; the KSTAR Team; the NSTX-U Team; the TCV Team; IOS members, ITPA; experts

2018-02-01

To improve our understanding of the dynamics and control of ITER terminations, a study has been carried out on data from existing tokamaks. The aim of this joint analysis is to compare the assumptions for ITER terminations with the present experience basis. The study examined the parameter ranges in which present day devices operated during their terminations, as well as the dynamics of these parameters. The analysis of a database, built using a selected set of experimental termination cases, showed that, the H-mode density decays slower than the plasma current ramp-down. The consequential increase in f GW limits the duration of the H-mode phase or result in disruptions. The lower temperatures after the drop out of H-mode will allow the plasma internal inductance to increase. But vertical stability control remains manageable in ITER at high internal inductance when accompanied by a strong elongation reduction. This will result in ITER terminations remaining longer at low q (q 95 ~ 3) than most present-day devices during the current ramp-down. A fast power ramp-down leads to a larger change in β p at the H-L transition, but the experimental data showed that these are manageable for the ITER radial position control. The analysis of JET data shows that radiation and impurity levels significantly alter the H-L transition dynamics. Self-consistent calculations of the impurity content and resulting radiation should be taken into account when modelling ITER termination scenarios. The results from this analysis can be used to better prescribe the inputs for the detailed modelling and preparation of ITER termination scenarios.

Soil erosion risk scenarios in the Mediterranean environment using RUSLE and GIS: An application model for Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, O.; Antronico, L.; Coscarelli, R.; Iaquinta, P.

2009-11-01

Soil erosion by water (WSE) has become a relevant issue at the Mediterranean level. In particular, natural conditions and human impact have made the Calabria (southern Italy) particularly prone to intense WSE. The purpose of this investigation is to identify areas highly affected by WSE in Calabria by comparing the scenarios obtained by assuming control and preventive measures and actions, as well as actual conditions generated by forest fires, also in the presence of conditions of maximum rainfall erosion. Geographic Information System techniques have been adopted to treat data of reasonable spatial resolution obtained at a regional scale for application to the RUSLE model. This work is based on the comparison of such data with a basic scenario that has been defined by the present situation (present scenario). In this scenario: (i) R has been assessed by means of an experimental relation adjusted to Calabria on the basis of 5-min observations; (ii) K has been drawn from the soil map of Calabria including 160 soilscapes; (iii) LS has been estimated according to the RUSLE2 model by using (among other subfactors) a 40-m square cell DTM; (iv) C has been derived by processing the data inferred from the project Corine Land Cover, whose legend includes 35 different land uses on three levels; and (v) P has been hypothesized as equal to 1. For the remaining three hypothesized scenarios, the RUSLE factors have been adjusted according to experimental data and to data in the literature. In particular, forest areas subject to fire have been randomly generated as far as fire location, extension, structure, and intensity are concerned. The values obtained by the application of the RUSLE model have emphasized that land management by means of measures and actions for reducing WSE causes a notable reduction of the erosive rate decreasing from ~30 to 12.3 Mg ha - 1 y - 1 . On the other hand, variations induced by hypothetical wildfires in forests on 10% of the regional territory

Competency in managing cardiac arrest: A scenario-based evaluation of dental students.

PubMed

Breuer, Georg; Knipfer, Christian; Huber, Tobias; Huettl, Stephan; Shams, Nima; Knipfer, Kristin; Neukam, Friedrich Wilhelm; Schuettler, Juergen; Stelzle, Florian

2016-01-01

Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) in life-threatening situations is perceived as a basic skill for dental professionals. However, medical emergency training in dental schools is often not standardized. The dental students' knowledge transfer to an ACLS setting thus remains questionable. The aim of the study was to evaluate dental pre-doctorate students' practical competence in ACLS in a standardized manner to enable the curriculum to be adapted to meet their particular needs. Thirty dental students (age 25.47 ± 1.81; 16 male/14 female) in their last year of dental studies were randomly assigned to 15 teams. Students' ability to successfully manage ACLS was assessed by a scenario-based approach (training module: Laerdal® ALS Skillmaster). Competence was assessed by means of (a) an observation chart, (b) video analysis and (c) training module analysis (Laerdal HeartSim®4000; Version 1.4). The evaluation was conducted by a trained anesthesiologist with regard to the 2010 guidelines of the European Resuscitation Council (ERC). Only five teams (33.3%) checked for all three vital functions (response, breathing and circulation). All teams initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Only 54.12% of the compressions performed during CPR were sufficient. Four teams stopped the CPR after initiation. In total, 93% of the teams used the equipment for bag-valve-mask ventilation and 53.3% used the AED (Automated external defibrillator). ACLS training on a regular basis is necessary and, consistent with a close link between dentistry and medicine, should be a standardized part of the medical emergency curriculum for dental students with a specific focus on the deficiencies revealed in this study.

Synthesis of the effects to fish species of two management scenarios for the secretarial determination on removal of the lower four dams on the Klamath

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton,; Rondorf, Dennis W.; Hampton,; Quinones,; Simondet,; Smith,

2011-01-01

For decades the long-standing conflict in the Klamath River Basin over water and fish resources has persisted. In an effort to resolve these disputes, PacifiCorp and interested parties negotiated, wrote, and signed the Klamath Hydroelectric Settlement Agreement (KHSA) in 2010, calling for the potential removal of the four lower dams on the Klamath River mainstem. The KHSA established a process known as the Secretarial Determination, which includes 1) conducting new scientific studies and a re-evaluation of existing studies found in the FERC record and from other sources, and 2) evaluating the potential environmental and human effects of such an action pursuant to National Environmental Policy Act, California Environmental Quality Act, and other applicable laws.  In March 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will decide whether removal of these dams on the Klamath River: 1) will advance salmonid fisheries, and 2) is in the public interest. In this report, we summarize anticipated effects to fish resources under two management scenarios: 1) current conditions with dams in place and without the programs and actions in the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA), and 2) removal of the lower four dams plus programs and actions called for in the KBRA and KHSA. This information will aid the Secretary of the Interior in determining whether dam removal and implementation of KBRA will advance restoration of salmonid (salmon and trout) fisheries.

Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

PubMed

Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

2014-04-01

Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2014-05-01

Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures

Merger of Two Neutron Stars: Predictions from the Two-families Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drago, Alessandro; Pagliara, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

If only one family of “neutron stars” exists, their maximum mass must be equal to or larger than 2{M}ȯ and then, only in less than about 18% of cases, the outcome of the merger of two neutron stars is a prompt collapse to a black hole, since the newly formed system can avoid the collapse at least until differential rotation is present. In the so-called two-families scenario, stars made of hadrons are stable only up to about (1.5{--}1.6){M}ȯ , while the most massive compact stars are entirely made of strange quark matter. We show that in this scenario the outcome of the merger of two compact stars, entirely composed by hadrons, is a prompt collapse in at least 34% of the cases. It will therefore be easy to discriminate between the two scenarios once the gravitational waves emitted at the moment of the merger are detected. Finally, we shortly discuss the implications of GW170817‑GRB 170817A.

Improvement of the management of residual waste in areas without thermal treatment facilities: A life cycle analysis of an Italian management district

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Maria, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaria@unipg.it; Micale, Caterina; Morettini, Emanuela

2015-10-15

Highlights: • LCA analysis of two option for residual waste management. • Exploitation of mechanical physical sorting facility for extracting recyclable from RMSW. • Processing the mechanically sorted organic fraction in bioreactor landfill. • Sensitivity analysis demonstrate high influence for impact assessment of substitution ratio for recycle materials. - Abstract: Starting from an existing waste management district without thermal treatment facilities, two different management scenarios for residual waste were compared by life cycle assessment (LCA). The adoption of a bioreactor landfill for managing the mechanically sorted organic fraction instead of bio-stabilization led to reduction of global warming and fresh watermore » eutrophication by 50% and 10%, respectively. Extraction of recyclables from residual waste led to avoided emissions for particulate matter, acidification and resource depletion impact categories. Marginal energy and the amount of energy recovered from landfill gas marginally affected the LCA results. On the contrary the quality of the recyclables extracted can significantly modify the eco profile of the management schemes.« less

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

PubMed

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patient empowerment by the means of citizen-managed Electronic Health Records: web 2.0 health digital identity scenarios.

PubMed

Falcão-Reis, Filipa; Correia, Manuel E

2010-01-01

With the advent of more sophisticated and comprehensive healthcare information systems, system builders are becoming more interested in patient interaction and what he can do to help to improve his own health care. Information systems play nowadays a crucial and fundamental role in hospital work-flows, thus providing great opportunities to introduce and improve upon "patient empowerment" processes for the personalization and management of Electronic Health Records (EHRs). In this paper, we present a patient's privacy generic control mechanisms scenarios based on the Extended OpenID (eOID), a user centric digital identity provider previously developed by our group, which leverages a secured OpenID 2.0 infrastructure with the recently released Portuguese Citizen Card (CC) for secure authentication in a distributed health information environment. eOID also takes advantage of Oauth assertion based mechanisms to implement patient controlled secure qualified role based access to his EHR, by third parties.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Qin; Florita, Anthony R; Krishnan, Venkat K

2017-08-31

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) ismore » analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.« less

Climate impact analysis of waste treatment scenarios--thermal treatment of commercial and pretreated waste versus landfilling in Austria.

PubMed

Ragossnig, A M; Wartha, C; Pomberger, R

2009-11-01

A major challenge for modern waste management lies in a smart integration of waste-to-energy installations in local energy systems in such a way that the energy efficiency of the waste-to-energy plant is optimized and that the energy contained in the waste is, therefore, optimally utilized. The extent of integration of thermal waste treatment processes into regular energy supply systems plays a major role with regard to climate control. In this research, the specific waste management situation looked at scenarios aiming at maximizing the energy recovery from waste (i.e. actual scenario and waste-to-energy process with 75% energy efficiency [22.5% electricity, 52.5% heat]) yield greenhouse gas emission savings due to the fact that more greenhouse gas emissions are avoided in the energy sector than caused by the various waste treatment processes. Comparing dedicated waste-to-energy-systems based on the combined heat and power (CHP) process with concepts based on sole electricity production, the energy efficiency proves to be crucial with regard to climate control. This underlines the importance of choosing appropriate sites for waste-to-energy-plants. This research was looking at the effect with regard to the climate impact of various waste management scenarios that could be applied alternatively by a private waste management company in Austria. The research is, therefore, based on a specific set of data for the waste streams looked at (waste characteristics, logistics needed, etc.). Furthermore, the investigated scenarios have been defined based on the actual available alternatives with regard to the usage of treatment plants for this specific company. The standard scenarios for identifying climate impact implications due to energy recovery from waste are based on the respective marginal energy data for the power and heat generation facilities/industrial processes in Austria.

Maximizing Conservation and Production with Intensive Forest Management: It's All About Location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittler, Rebecca; Filotas, Élise; Kroese, Jasmin; Messier, Christian

2015-11-01

Functional zoning has been suggested as a way to balance the needs of a viable forest industry with those of healthy ecosystems. Under this system, part of the forest is set aside for protected areas, counterbalanced by intensive and extensive management of the rest of the forest. Studies indicate this may provide adequate timber while minimizing road construction and favoring the development of large mature and old stands. However, it is unclear how the spatial arrangement of intensive management areas may affect the success of this zoning. Should these areas be agglomerated or dispersed throughout the forest landscape? Should managers prioritize (a) proximity to existing roads, (b) distance from protected areas, or (c) site-specific productivity? We use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model to examine the effects of different spatial scenarios on landscape structure, connectivity for native forest wildlife, stand diversity, harvest volume, and road construction: (1) random placement of intensive management areas, and (2-8) all possible combinations of rules (a)-(c). Results favor the agglomeration of intensive management areas. For most wildlife species, connectivity was the highest when intensive management was far from the protected areas. This scenario also resulted in relatively high harvest volumes. Maximizing distance of intensive management areas from protected areas may therefore be the best way to maximize the benefits of intensive management areas while minimizing their potentially negative effects on forest structure and biodiversity.

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Key strategies to improve systems for managing patient complaints within health facilities – what can we learn from the existing literature?

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Information from patient complaints – a widely accepted measure of patient satisfaction with services – can inform improvements in service quality, and contribute towards overall health systems performance. While analyses of data from patient complaints received much emphasis, there is limited published literature on key interventions to improve complaint management systems. Objectives: The objectives are two-fold: first, to synthesise existing evidence and provide practical options to inform future policy and practice and, second, to identify key outstanding gaps in the existing literature to inform agenda for future research. Methods: We report results of review of the existing literature. Peer-reviewed published literature was searched in OVID Medline, OVID Global Health and PubMed. In addition, relevant citations from the reviewed articles were followed up, and we also report grey literature from the UK and the Netherlands. Results: Effective interventions can improve collection of complaints (e.g. establishing easy-to-use channels and raising patients’ awareness of these), analysis of complaint data (e.g. creating structures and spaces for analysis and learning from complaints data), and subsequent action (e.g. timely feedback to complainants and integrating learning from complaints into service quality improvement). No one single measure can be sufficient, and any intervention to improve patient complaint management system must include different components, which need to be feasible, effective, scalable, and sustainable within local context. Conclusions: Effective interventions to strengthen patient complaints systems need to be: comprehensive, integrated within existing systems, context-specific and cognizant of the information asymmetry and the unequal power relations between the key actors. Four gaps in the published literature represent an agenda for future research: limited understanding of contexts of effective interventions

Coronary artery aneurysms in acute coronary syndrome: case series, review, and proposed management strategy.

PubMed

Boyer, Nathan; Gupta, Rajesh; Schevchuck, Alex; Hindnavis, Vindhya; Maliske, Seth; Sheldon, Mark; Drachman, Douglas; Yeghiazarians, Yerem

2014-06-01

Coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) is an uncommon clinical finding, with an incidence varying from 1.5%-4.9% in adults, and is usually considered a variant of coronary artery disease (CAD). CAA identified in the context of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) represents a unique management challenge, particularly if the morphology of the CAA is suspected to have provoked the acute clinical syndrome. CAA is associated with thrombus formation due to abnormal laminar flow, as well as abnormal platelet and endothelial-derived pathophysiologic factors within the CAA. Once formed, mural thrombus may potentiate the deposition of additional thrombus within aneurysmal segments. Percutaneous revascularization of CAA has been associated with complications including distal embolization of thrombus, no-reflow phenomenon, stent malapposition, dissection, and rupture. Presently, there are no formal guidelines to direct the management of CAA in patients presenting with ACS; controversies exist whether conservative, surgical, or catheter-based management should be pursued. In this manuscript, we present an extensive review of the existing literature and associated clinical guidelines, and propose a management algorithm for patients with this complex clinical scenario. Armed with this perspective, therapeutic decisions may be tailored to synthesize patient factors and preferences, individualized clinical assessment, and existing American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines for management of ACS.

Co-existence of agricultural production systems.

PubMed

Jank, Bernhard; Rath, Johannes; Gaugitsch, Helmut

2006-05-01

Strategies and best practices for the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops need to be developed and implemented with the participation of farmers and other stakeholders. According to the principle of 'subsidiarity', decisions should be made by the lowest authority possible. When applying this concept to the case of GM crops, the affected society should determine their use and management in a regional decision-making process. Public participation is better accomplished at a lower level, and democratic deficits in decision-making on GMOs are better resolved, enabling farmers to manage or avoid GM crops. Ultimately, voluntary GMO-free zones might be a tool for sustainable co-existence and GM-free production and GMO-free zones might create a specific image for marketing regional products and services, such as tourism.

Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Thomas W. R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2013-06-01

We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species-energy and species-area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

FHWA scenario planning guidebook

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework to develop a scenario planning approach tailored to th...

Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

Forest management strategies for reducing carbon emissions, the French case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, Aude; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Bellassen, Valentin; Vallet, Patrick; Martin, Manuel

2015-04-01

International agreements now recognize the role of forest in the mitigation of climate change through the levers of in-situ sequestration, storage in products and energy and product substitution. These three strategies of carbon management are often antagonistic and it is still not clear which strategy would have the most significant impact on atmospheric carbon concentrations. With a focus on France, this study compares several scenarios of forest management in terms of their effect on the overall carbon budget from trees to wood-products. We elaborated four scenarios of forest management that target different wood production objectives. One scenario is 'Business as usual' and reproduces the current forest management and wood production levels. Two scenarios target an increase in bioenergy wood production, with either long-term or short-term goals. One scenario aims at increasing the production of timber for construction. For this, an empirical regression model was developed building on the rich French inventory database. The model can project the current forest resource at a time horizon of 20 years for characteristic variables diameter, standing volume, above-ground biomass, stand age. A simplified life-cycle analysis provides a full carbon budget for each scenario from forest management to wood use and allows the identification of the scenario that most reduces carbon emissions.

Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

2016-01-01

Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

2001-12-01

estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.

Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Speer, Bethany; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16more » GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.« less

Deployment of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) in Emergency and Disaster Response Scenarios to Support Local Emergency Management Agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calamaio, C. L.; Walker, J.; Beck, J. M.; Graves, S. J.; Johnson, C.

2017-12-01

Researchers at the Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville are working closely with the Madison County Emergency Management Agency (EMA), GeoHuntsville's UAS Working Group, and the NOAA UAS Program Office, to conduct a series of practical demonstrations testing the use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for emergency response activities in Madison County, Alabama. These exercises demonstrate the use of UAS to detect and visualize hazards in affected areas via the delivery of aerial imagery and associated data products to law enforcement first responders in a variety of different scenarios, for example, search and rescue, tornado track mapping, damage assessment, and situational awareness/containment during active shooter incidents. In addition to showcasing the use of UAS as a tool for emergency services, these pilot exercises provide the opportunity to engage the appropriate stakeholders from several communities including first responders, geospatial intelligence, active members of the unmanned systems industry, and academia. This presentation will showcase the challenges associated with delivering quality data products for emergency services in a timely manner as well as the related challenges in integrating the technology into local emergency management.

Using existing case-mix methods to fund trauma cases.

PubMed

Monakova, Julia; Blais, Irene; Botz, Charles; Chechulin, Yuriy; Picciano, Gino; Basinski, Antoni

2010-01-01

Policymakers frequently face the need to increase funding in isolated and frequently heterogeneous (clinically and in terms of resource consumption) patient subpopulations. This article presents a methodologic solution for testing the appropriateness of using existing grouping and weighting methodologies for funding subsets of patients in the scenario where a case-mix approach is preferable to a flat-rate based payment system. Using as an example the subpopulation of trauma cases of Ontario lead trauma hospitals, the statistical techniques of linear and nonlinear regression models, regression trees, and spline models were applied to examine the fit of the existing case-mix groups and reference weights for the trauma cases. The analyses demonstrated that for funding Ontario trauma cases, the existing case-mix systems can form the basis for rational and equitable hospital funding, decreasing the need to develop a different grouper for this subset of patients. This study confirmed that Injury Severity Score is a poor predictor of costs for trauma patients. Although our analysis used the Canadian case-mix classification system and cost weights, the demonstrated concept of using existing case-mix systems to develop funding rates for specific subsets of patient populations may be applicable internationally.

Attractor scenarios and superluminal signals in k-essence cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Jin U; Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Department of Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Theresienstrasse 37, 80333 Munich; Vanchurin, Vitaly

Cosmological scenarios with k-essence are invoked in order to explain the observed late-time acceleration of the Universe. These scenarios avoid the need for fine-tuned initial conditions (the 'coincidence problem') because of the attractorlike dynamics of the k-essence field {phi}. It was recently shown that all k-essence scenarios with Lagrangians p=L(X){phi}{sup -2}, where X{identical_to}(1/2){phi}{sub ,{mu}}{phi}{sup ,{mu}}, necessarily involve an epoch where perturbations of {phi} propagate faster than light (the 'no-go theorem'). We carry out a comprehensive study of attractorlike cosmological solutions ('trackers') involving a k-essence scalar field {phi} and another matter component. The result of this study is a complete classificationmore » of k-essence Lagrangians that admit asymptotically stable tracking solutions, among all Lagrangians of the form p=K({phi})L(X). Using this classification, we select the class of models that describe the late-time acceleration and avoid the coincidence problem through the tracking mechanism. An analogous 'no-go theorem' still holds for this class of models, indicating the existence of a superluminal epoch. In the context of k-essence cosmology, the superluminal epoch does not lead to causality violations. We discuss the implications of superluminal signal propagation for possible causality violations in Lorentz-invariant field theories.« less

5 CFR 723.150 - Program accessibility: Existing facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... facilities. 723.150 Section 723.150 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL... ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED BY THE OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT § 723.150 Program accessibility: Existing... would result in a fundamental alteration in the nature of a program or activity or in undue financial...

A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozek, Matthew L.; Donahue, Kenneth M.; Ingham, Michel D.; Kaderka, Justin D.

2015-01-01

Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

PubMed

Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

Testing Domestication Scenarios of Lima Bean (Phaseolus lunatus L.) in Mesoamerica: Insights from Genome-Wide Genetic Markers

PubMed Central

Chacón-Sánchez, María I.; Martínez-Castillo, Jaime

2017-01-01

Plant domestication can be seen as a long-term process that involves a complex interplay among demographic processes and evolutionary forces. Previous studies have suggested two domestication scenarios for Lima bean in Mesoamerica: two separate domestication events, one from gene pool MI in central-western Mexico and another one from gene pool MII in the area Guatemala-Costa Rica, or a single domestication from gene pool MI in central-western Mexico followed by post-domestication gene flow with wild populations. In this study we evaluated the genetic structure of the wild gene pool and tested these two competing domestication scenarios of Lima bean in Mesoamerica by applying an ABC approach to a set of genome-wide SNP markers. The results confirm the existence of three gene pools in wild Lima bean, two Mesoamerican gene pools (MI and MII) and the Andean gene pool (AI), and suggest the existence of another gene pool in central Colombia. The results indicate that although both domestication scenarios may be supported by genetic data, higher statistical support was given to the single domestication scenario in central-western Mexico followed by admixture with wild populations. Domestication would have involved strong founder effects reflected in loss of genetic diversity and increased LD levels in landraces. Genomic regions affected by selection were detected and these may harbor candidate genes related to domestication. PMID:28955351

Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

2017-08-01

In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

2015-04-01

Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

GRB 090423 IN the Fireshell Scenario: a Canonical GRB at Redshift 8.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izzo, Luca; Bernardini, Maria Grazia; Bianco, Carlo Luciano; Caito, Letizia; Patricelli, Barbara; Ruffini, Remo

GRB 090423 is the farthest GRB up to date, with a redshift of about 8.1. We present within the Fireshell scenario a complete analysis of this GRB in the γ-ray band and a detailed analysis also in the X-rays, where we note the existence of a second component. We obtain that the FireShell model gives a good indication for the energetic emitted in the burst, Etot = 1:2x1053 ergs. Moreover we note that GRB 090423 is a long GRB with a relatively high bulk Lorentz Gamma factor at the transparency of the Fireshell. Finally we present a study of this extra component in the context of the synchrotron emission scenario, delineated in.8

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer

2005-09-19

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. Inmore » this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.« less

Combinatorial structure of genome rearrangements scenarios.

PubMed

Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne

2010-09-01

In genome rearrangement theory, one of the elusive questions raised in recent years is the enumeration of rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. This problem is related to the uniform generation of rearrangement scenarios and the derivation of tests of statistical significance of the properties of these scenarios. Here we give an exact formula for the number of double-cut-and-join (DCJ) rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. We also construct effective bijections between the set of scenarios that sort a component as well studied combinatorial objects such as parking functions, labeled trees, and prüfer codes.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

DOE PAGES

Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

2015-08-29

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century.

PubMed

Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R; Brown, Christopher J; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I; Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J

2015-02-01

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Life cycle comparison of centralized wastewater treatment and urine source separation with struvite precipitation: Focus on urine nutrient management.

PubMed

Ishii, Stephanie K L; Boyer, Treavor H

2015-08-01

Alternative approaches to wastewater management including urine source separation have the potential to simultaneously improve multiple aspects of wastewater treatment, including reduced use of potable water for waste conveyance and improved contaminant removal, especially nutrients. In order to pursue such radical changes, system-level evaluations of urine source separation in community contexts are required. The focus of this life cycle assessment (LCA) is managing nutrients from urine produced in a residential setting with urine source separation and struvite precipitation, as compared with a centralized wastewater treatment approach. The life cycle impacts evaluated in this study pertain to construction of the urine source separation system and operation of drinking water treatment, decentralized urine treatment, and centralized wastewater treatment. System boundaries include fertilizer offsets resulting from the production of urine based struvite fertilizer. As calculated by the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI), urine source separation with MgO addition for subsequent struvite precipitation with high P recovery (Scenario B) has the smallest environmental cost relative to existing centralized wastewater treatment (Scenario A) and urine source separation with MgO and Na3PO4 addition for subsequent struvite precipitation with concurrent high P and N recovery (Scenario C). Preliminary economic evaluations show that the three urine management scenarios are relatively equal on a monetary basis (<13% difference). The impacts of each urine management scenario are most sensitive to the assumed urine composition, the selected urine storage time, and the assumed electricity required to treat influent urine and toilet water used to convey urine at the centralized wastewater treatment plant. The importance of full nutrient recovery from urine in combination with the substantial chemical inputs required for N recovery

41 CFR 300-2.1 - What formats exist in the FTR?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What formats exist in the FTR? 300-2.1 Section 300-2.1 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Travel Regulation System GENERAL INTRODUCTION 2-HOW TO USE THE FTR General § 300-2.1 What formats exist in the FTR? The FTR...

Tailoring Green Infrastructure Implementation Scenarios based on Stormwater Management Objectives

EPA Science Inventory

Green infrastructure (GI) refers to stormwater management practices that mimic nature by soaking up, storing, and controlling onsite. GI practices can contribute reckonable benefits towards meeting stormwater management objectives, such as runoff peak shaving, volume reduction, f...

Coherent delocalization: views of entanglement in different scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

León-Montiel, R. de J.; Vallés, A.; Moya-Cessa, H. M.; Torres, J. P.

2015-08-01

The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compose the system of interest.

Mars base buildup scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blacic, J. D.

1986-01-01

Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Robust surveillance and control of invasive species using a scenario optimization approach

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Robert G. Haight; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Robert C. Venette; Ronald E. Fournier; Jean J. Turgeon

2017-01-01

Uncertainty about future outcomes of invasions is a major hurdle in the planning of invasive species management programs. We present a scenario optimization model that incorporates uncertainty about the spread of an invasive species and allocates survey and eradication measures to minimize the number of infested or potentially infested host plants on the landscape. We...

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species

PubMed Central

Geary, Matthew; Fielding, Alan H.; McGowan, Philip J. K.; Marsden, Stuart J.

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse. PMID:26569604

Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

2011-09-01

The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

2015-12-01

Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon

Oblique Photogrammetry Supporting 3d Urban Reconstruction of Complex Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toschi, I.; Ramos, M. M.; Nocerino, E.; Menna, F.; Remondino, F.; Moe, K.; Poli, D.; Legat, K.; Fassi, F.

2017-05-01

Accurate 3D city models represent an important source of geospatial information to support various "smart city" applications, such as space management, energy assessment, 3D cartography, noise and pollution mapping as well as disaster management. Even though remarkable progress has been made in recent years, there are still many open issues, especially when it comes to the 3D modelling of complex urban scenarios like historical and densely-built city centres featuring narrow streets and non-conventional building shapes. Most approaches introduce strong building priors/constraints on symmetry and roof typology that penalize urban environments having high variations of roof shapes. Furthermore, although oblique photogrammetry is rapidly maturing, the use of slanted views for façade reconstruction is not completely included in the reconstruction pipeline of state-of-the-art software. This paper aims to investigate state-of-the-art methods for 3D building modelling in complex urban scenarios with the support of oblique airborne images. A reconstruction approach based on roof primitives fitting is tested. Oblique imagery is then exploited to support the manual editing of the generated building models. At the same time, mobile mapping data are collected at cm resolution and then integrated with the aerial ones. All approaches are tested on the historical city centre of Bergamo (Italy).

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Simulation and Particle-Tracking Analysis of Selected Ground-Water Pumping Scenarios at Vogtle Electric Generation Plant, Burke County, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, Gregory S.; Clarke, John S.

2007-01-01

The source of ground water to production wells at Vogtle Electric Generation Plant (VEGP), a nuclear power plant in Burke County, Georgia, was simulated under existing (2002) and potential future pumping conditions using an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) MODFLOW ground-water flow model of a 4,455-square-mile area in the Coastal Plain of Georgia and South Carolina. Simulation results for three steady-state pumping scenarios were compared to each other and to a 2002 Base Case condition. The pumping scenarios focused on pumping increases at VEGP resulting from projected future demands and the addition of two electrical-generating reactor units. Scenarios simulated pumping increases at VEGP ranging from 1.09 to 3.42 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), with one of the scenarios simulating the elimination of 5.3 Mgal/d of pumping at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a U.S. Department of Energy facility located across the Savannah River from VEGP. The largest simulated water-level changes at VEGP were for the scenario whereby pumping at the facility was more than tripled, resulting in drawdown exceeding 4-8 feet (ft) in the aquifers screened in the production wells. For the scenario that eliminated pumping at SRS, water-level rises of as much as 4-8 ft were simulated in the same aquifers at SRS. Results of MODFLOW simulations were analyzed using the USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH to determine the source of water and associated time of travel to VEGP production wells. For each of the scenarios, most of the recharge to VEGP wells originated in an upland area near the county line between Burke and Jefferson Counties, Georgia, with none of the recharge originating on SRS or elsewhere in South Carolina. An exception occurs for the scenario whereby pumping at VEGP was more than tripled. For this scenario, some of the recharge originates in an upland area in eastern Barnwell County, South Carolina. Simulated mean time of travel from recharge areas to VEGP wells for the

DENTAL CARE PROFESSIONALS AND CHILD PROTECTION: CASE SCENARIOS AND DISCUSSIONS.

PubMed

Park, Christine

2015-11-01

Any concerns about paediatric patients in general dental practice can be stressful for all involved. Barriers to the reporting of concerns by dental teams are known to exist. Anything that can help ease those situations can only be beneficial. In this article we look at three scenarios that could arise which I am often asked about during teaching and training sessions on safeguarding and child protection for dental teams. They can be discussed at team meetings and training, so that if they are ever to happen for real, everyone will know exactly what to do. This article cannot be completely prescriptive as there will be local variations, but it gives general guidance on issues raised by the scenarios. If you already have a child protection policy in your practice, make sure you know what it says; and if you don't this article will point the way to further resources for developing one.

30 CFR 250.304 - Existing facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS AND SULPHUR... indicates that emissions from existing facilities may be significantly affecting the air quality of the... Regional Supervisor which demonstrates that the facility is not significantly affecting the air quality of...

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

2011-01-01

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

PubMed

Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

2018-05-01

Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright �

Spatial-temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Ran; Tao, Fulu; Xu, Zhihui

2018-06-01

temperature would generally cause runoff to decrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation also played a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our results were supported by previous studies. However, there existed large uncertainties in climate scenarios from different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in impact assessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differences between the two warming scenarios. Our findings on the spatiotemporal patterns of climate impacts and their shifts from the 1.5 to the 2.0 °C warming scenario are useful for water resource management under different warming scenarios.

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Baena-Ruiz, Leticia

2018-05-01

the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

Performance issues in management of the Space Station Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Marjory J.

1988-01-01

The onboard segment of the Space Station Information System (SSIS), called the Data Management System (DMS), will consist of a Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI) token-ring network. The performance of the DMS in scenarios involving two kinds of network management is analyzed. In the first scenario, how the transmission of routine management messages impacts performance of the DMS is examined. In the second scenario, techniques for ensuring low latency of real-time control messages in an emergency are examined.

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios.

PubMed

Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie K; Christensen, Thomas H

2018-04-01

The current waste management system, handling around 500,000 t of household, commercial, and institutional waste annually in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, is based on landfilling in an old landfill with no controls of leachate and gas. Life-cycle assessment modelling of the current system shows that it is a major load on the environment, while the simulation of seven alternative systems results in large savings in many impact categories. With respect to climate change, it is estimated that a saving of about 1200 kg CO 2 equivalents is possible per year, per inhabitant, which is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The best alternatives involve efficient energy recovery from waste and recycling by source separation for commercial and institutional waste, the major waste type in the Irkutsk region. Recycling of household waste seems less attractive, and it is therefore recommended only to consider this option after experience has been gained with the commercial and institutional waste. Sensitivity analysis shows that recovery of energy - in particular electricity, heat, and steam - from waste is crucial to the environmental performance of the waste management system. This relates to the efficiencies of energy recovery as well as what the recovered energy substitutes, that is, the 'dirtier' the off-set energy, the higher the environmental savings for the waste management system. Since recovered energy may be utilised by only a few energy grids or industrial users, it is recommended to perform additional local assessments of the integration of the waste energy into existing systems and facilities.

Two-step adaptive management for choosing between two management actions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Alana L.; Walker, Leila; Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve; McCarthy, Michael A

2017-01-01

Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action. We constructed a two-time-step scenario where a manager is choosing between two possible management actions. The manager has a total budget that can be split between a learning phase and an implementation phase. We use this scenario to investigate when and how much a manager should invest in learning about the management actions available. The optimal investment in learning can be understood intuitively by accounting for the expected value of sample information, the benefits that accrue during learning, the direct costs of learning, and the opportunity costs of learning. We find that the optimal proportion of the budget to spend on learning is characterized by several critical thresholds that mark a jump from spending a large proportion of the budget on learning to spending nothing. For example, as sampling variance increases, it is optimal to spend a larger proportion of the budget on learning, up to a point: if the sampling variance passes a critical threshold, it is no longer beneficial to invest in learning. Similar thresholds are observed as a function of the total budget and the difference in the expected performance of the two actions. We illustrate how this model can be applied using a case study of choosing between alternative rearing diets for hihi, an endangered New Zealand passerine. Although the model presented is a simplified scenario, we believe it is relevant to many management situations. Managers often have relatively short time horizons for management, and might be reluctant to consider further investment in learning and monitoring beyond collecting data

Two-step adaptive management for choosing between two management actions.

PubMed

Moore, Alana L; Walker, Leila; Runge, Michael C; McDonald-Madden, Eve; McCarthy, Michael A

2017-06-01

Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action. We constructed a two-time-step scenario where a manager is choosing between two possible management actions. The manager has a total budget that can be split between a learning phase and an implementation phase. We use this scenario to investigate when and how much a manager should invest in learning about the management actions available. The optimal investment in learning can be understood intuitively by accounting for the expected value of sample information, the benefits that accrue during learning, the direct costs of learning, and the opportunity costs of learning. We find that the optimal proportion of the budget to spend on learning is characterized by several critical thresholds that mark a jump from spending a large proportion of the budget on learning to spending nothing. For example, as sampling variance increases, it is optimal to spend a larger proportion of the budget on learning, up to a point: if the sampling variance passes a critical threshold, it is no longer beneficial to invest in learning. Similar thresholds are observed as a function of the total budget and the difference in the expected performance of the two actions. We illustrate how this model can be applied using a case study of choosing between alternative rearing diets for hihi, an endangered New Zealand passerine. Although the model presented is a simplified scenario, we believe it is relevant to many management situations. Managers often have relatively short time horizons for management, and might be reluctant to consider further investment in learning and monitoring beyond collecting data

A GIS based watershed information system for water resources management and planning in semi-arid areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-04-01

The overall objective of this work is the development of an Information System which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of water management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making in semi-arid areas. An integrated modeling system has been developed and applied to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The modeling system, developed in the framework of "HYDROMENTOR" research project, is based on a GIS modelling approach which uses remote sensing data and includes coupled models for the simulation of surface water and groundwater resources, the operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and the estimation of water demands at several spatial scales. Lake Karla basin was the region where the system was tested but the methodology may be the basis for future analysis elsewhere. Τwo (2) base and three (3) management scenarios were investigated. In total, eight (8) water management scenarios were evaluated: i) Base scenario without operation of the reservoir and the designed Lake Karla district irrigation network (actual situation) • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation ii) Base scenario including the operation of the reservoir and the Lake Karla district irrigation network • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is very large. However, the operation of the reservoir and the cooperative Lake Karla district irrigation network coupled with water demand management measures, like reduction of water distribution system losses and alteration of irrigation methods, could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. Acknowledgements: This study