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Sample records for marine ecosystems climatic

  1. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doney, Scott C.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Emmett Duffy, J.; Barry, James P.; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A.; Galindo, Heather M.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N.; Sydeman, William J.; Talley, Lynne D.

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  2. Climate projections for selected large marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Muyin; Overland, James E.; Bond, Nicholas A.

    2010-02-01

    In preparation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) modeling centers from around the world carried out sets of global climate simulations under various emission scenarios with a total of 23 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. We evaluated the models' 20th century hindcasts of selected variables relevant to several large marine ecosystems and examined 21st century projections by a subset of these models under the A1B (middle range) emission scenario. In general we find that a subset (about half) of the models are able to simulate large-scale aspects of the historical observations reasonably well, which provides some confidence in their application for projections of ocean conditions into the future. Over the North Pacific by the mid-21st century, the warming due to the trend in wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) will be 1°-1.5 °C, which is as large as the amplitude of the major mode of variability, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). For areas northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, these models projected a steady increase of 1.2 °C in summer SST over the period from 2000 to 2050. For the Bering and Barents seas, a subset of models selected on the basis of their ability to simulate sea-ice area in late 20th century yield an average decrease in sea-ice coverage of 43% and 36%, respectively, by the decade centered on 2050 with a reasonable degree of consistency. On the other hand, model simulations of coastal upwelling for the California, Canary and Humboldt Currents, and of bottom temperatures in the Barents Sea, feature a relatively large degree of uncertainty. These results illustrate that 21st century projections for marine ecosystems in certain regions using present-generation climate models require additional analysis.

  3. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. PMID:27387951

  4. Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, Megan I.; Leon, Javier X.; Callaghan, David P.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Hamylton, Sarah; Brown, Christopher J.; Baldock, Tom; Golshani, Aliasghar; Phinn, Stuart R.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Mumby, Peter J.

    2014-08-01

    Ecosystems are linked within landscapes by the physical and biological processes they mediate. In such connected landscapes, the response of one ecosystem to climate change could have profound consequences for neighbouring systems. Here, we report the first quantitative predictions of interdependencies between ecosystems in response to climate change. In shallow tropical marine ecosystems, coral reefs shelter lagoons from incoming waves, allowing seagrass meadows to thrive. Deepening water over coral reefs from sea-level rise results in larger, more energetic waves traversing the reef into the lagoon, potentially generating hostile conditions for seagrass. However, growth of coral reef such that the relative water depth is maintained could mitigate negative effects of sea-level rise on seagrass. Parameterizing physical and biological models for Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we find negative effects of sea-level rise on seagrass before the middle of this century given reasonable rates of reef growth. Rates of vertical carbonate accretion typical of modern reef flats (up to 3 mm yr-1) will probably be insufficient to maintain suitable conditions for reef lagoon seagrass under moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by 2100. Accounting for interdependencies in ecosystem responses to climate change is challenging, but failure to do so results in inaccurate predictions of habitat extent in the future.

  5. Climate warming and estuarine and marine coastal ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, V.S.

    1994-12-31

    Estuaries are physically controlled, resilient coastal ecosystems harboring environmentally tolerant species in diluted seawater. Marine coastal systems are less stressed physically and contain some environmentally less tolerant species. Both systems are biologically productive and economically significant. Because of their complex structure and function, it is difficult to predict accurately the effects of climate change, but some broad generalizations can be made. If climate warming occurs, it will raise sea-level, heat shallow waters, and modify precipitation, wind, and water circulation patterns. Rapid sea-level rise could cause the loss of salt marshes, mangrove swamps, and coral reefs, thus diminishing the ecological roles of these highly productive systems. Warmer waters could eliminate heat-sensitive species from part of their geographical range while allowing heat-tolerant species to expand their range, depending on their ability to disperse. Most thermally influenced losses of species will probably only be local, but changed distributions may lead to changed community function. It is more difficult to predict the effects of modified precipitation, wind, and water circulation patterns, but changes could affect organisms dependent on such patterns for food production (e.g., in upwelling regions) or for retention in estuaries. Aquacultural and fishery-related enterprises would be affected negatively in some regions and positively in others. 73 refs.

  6. Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent

    2016-01-01

    This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.

  7. Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

    PubMed

    Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

    2009-12-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation. PMID:19636605

  8. Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Brian D.; Gleason, Daniel F.; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M.; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D.; Friedlander, Alan M.; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E.; Miller, Steven L.; Steneck, Robert S.

    2009-12-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

  9. Variability in biomass yields of large marine ecosystems (LMEs) during climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, K. )

    1993-06-01

    Results of ecosystem studies relating to variations in biomass yields are examined in relation to principle driving forces including climate change, coastal pollution, habitat degradation, and overexploitation of living marine resources. Among the ecosystems compared with regard to the different prime driving forces, affecting sustainability of biomass yields, are the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea, Kuroshio Current, California Current, Great Barrier Reef, Gulf of Mexico, Yellow Sea, Icelandic Shelf, and Northeast US Shelf ecosystems. The designation and management of large marine ecosystems (LMEs) is, at present, an evolving scientific and geopolitical process. Sufficient progress has been made to allow for useful comparisons among different processes influencing large-scale changes in the biomass yields of LMEs. The most severely impacted LMEs are off the coasts of the continents.

  10. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. PMID:26648483

  11. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  12. An integrated modeling study of ocean circulation, the ocean carbon cycle, marine ecosystems, and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Long

    The unifying theme of this study is to conduct an extensive exploration of various interactions between ocean circulation, the carbon cycle, marine ecosystems, and climate change using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, ISAM-2.5D (Integrated Science Assessment Model). First, through the simulation of radiocarbon (in terms of Delta14C) it is demonstrated that the inclusion of isopycnal diffusion and a parameterization of eddy-induced circulation in the ISAM-2.5D model yields the most realistic representation of ocean mixing and circulation. Secondly, I demonstrate the value of the simulation of multiple tracers, combined with a variety of observational data, in constraining the ISAM-2.5D model that has been constrained by the simulation of Delta14C. Through the simulation of ocean biogeochemical cycles and CFC-11 and the use of the updated observational data of bomb radiocarbon, I improve the Delta14C-constrained ISAM-2.5D model's performance in simulating ocean circulation and air-sea gas exchange, as well as its credibility in predicting oceanic carbon uptake. Third, I use the ISAM-2.5D model to assess the efficiency of direct carbon injection into the deep ocean with the influence of climate change. It is shown that the consideration of climate change enhances the retention time of injected carbon into the Atlantic Ocean as a result of weakened North Atlantic overturning circulation in a warming climate. However, the climatic effect is insignificant on the efficiency of carbon injection into the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Finally, I quantify that increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations would be mainly responsible for future ocean acidification, including lowering in ocean pH and sea water saturation state with respect to carbonate minerals. The consideration of climate change produces a second-order modification to projected ocean acidification. Therefore, in addition to its radiative effects on climate change, increased atmospheric CO2

  13. Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia.

    PubMed

    Ong, Joyce J L; Rountrey, Adam N; Zinke, Jens; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Grierson, Pauline F; O'Donnell, Alison J; Newman, Stephen J; Lough, Janice M; Trougan, Mélissa; Meekan, Mark G

    2016-08-01

    The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long-term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate-driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO-driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño-4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree-ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation

  14. Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Black, Bryan A; Sydeman, William J; Frank, David C; Griffin, Daniel; Stahle, David W; García-Reyes, Marisol; Rykaczewski, Ryan R; Bograd, Steven J; Peterson, William T

    2014-09-19

    Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest. PMID:25237100

  15. An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.

  16. THE RESPONSE OF MARINE ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A strong association is documented between variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in various trophic levels of the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Examples are presented for phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, fish, marine diseases, whales and s...

  17. Climatic Change and Marine Ecosystems in the NE Pacific: A Holocene Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, B. P.; Addison, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    Historical records suggest strong responses of marine ecosystems to climatic change in the NE Pacific Ocean. The abundance of zooplankton, salmon and other marine organisms varied substantially during the 20th century, and appear to correlate with inter-decadal climate variability. To better understand marine ecosystem-climate linkages, proxy records from a variety of sources are being assembled and compared. Paleoceanographic changes are being reconstructed from sediment cores from the fjords and continental margin of the Gulf of Alaska, where the rapidly accumulating sediment can resolve environmental changes on annual to decadal timescales. Past sockeye salmon abundance is reconstructed by analyzing nitrogen stable isotopes in sediment cores from lakes where sockeye return to spawn. Paleoclimatic data is available for this region from studies of tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores and glacial advances. The changes in primary and secondary ocean production in this region indicate that climatic forcing has direct impacts on lower trophic levels, which subsequently affects salmon production probably through food availability a hypothesis that can be assessed through paleoenvironmental analyses. Preliminary multi-proxy data on ocean paleoproductivity indicates substantial variability during the Holocene over a range of timescales. Productivity appears to have generally increased during the Holocene, with relatively higher levels during the little ice age, and in the last few decades. Reconstructions of salmon abundance from a suite of lakes show generally similar patterns, consistent with the hypothesis that climate is an important driver of their abundance. Over the Holocene, shifts in salmon abundance far exceed the historical decadal-scale variability. Salmon abundance generally increased over the Holocene, punctuated by several abrupt steps, as well as multi-decadal variability. Salmon increased during neoglaciation (c.a. 3500 yr BP), and were consistently

  18. Climate and Demography Dictate the Strength of Predator-Prey Overlap in a Subarctic Marine Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Hunsicker, Mary E.; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Bailey, Kevin M.; Zador, Stephani; Stige, Leif Christian

    2013-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate and anthropogenic influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in species spatial dynamics. However, less is known about how shifts in species distributions might alter predator-prey overlap and the dynamics of prey populations. We developed a general approach to quantify species spatial overlap and identify the biotic and abiotic variables that dictate the strength of overlap. We used this method to test the hypothesis that population abundance and temperature have a synergistic effect on the spatial overlap of arrowtooth flounder (predator) and juvenile Alaska walleye pollock (prey, age-1) in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analyses indicate that (1) flounder abundance and temperature are key variables dictating the strength of flounder and pollock overlap, (2) changes in the magnitude of overlap may be largely driven by density-dependent habitat selection of flounder, and (3) species overlap is negatively correlated to juvenile pollock recruitment when flounder biomass is high. Overall, our findings suggest that continued increases in flounder abundance coupled with the predicted long-term warming of ocean temperatures could have important implications for the predator-prey dynamics of arrowtooth flounder and juvenile pollock. The approach used in this study is valuable for identifying potential consequences of climate variability and exploitation on species spatial dynamics and interactions in many marine ecosystems. PMID:23824707

  19. Climatic regime shifts and their impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chang Ik; Lee, Jae Bong; Kim, Suam; Oh, Jai-Ho

    2000-10-01

    There were climatic regime shifts over the North Pacific in 1976 and 1988 which affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters. Precipitation in Korean waters showed a decadal scale climatic jump, especially of Ullungdo Island, reflecting the regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific. The variation was also detected in East Asian atmospheric systems. The Aleutian Low and North Pacific High Pressure Systems showed substantial changes in 1976 and around 1987-89. 1976 was an unusually warm year for Korea; mean sea surface temperature (SST) was higher than ‘normal’ and was accompanied by a northward shift in the thermal front. Post 1976, the volume transport of the Kuroshio Current increased and higher seawater and air temperatures persisted until 1988. Other shifts occurred after 1976 such as an increase in mixed layer depth (MLD) and biological changes in the ecosystem of Korean waters including decreases in spring primary production and an increase in autumn primary production. Primary production increased again after 1988, and was followed by a significant increase in zooplankton biomass after 1991. The 1976 regime shift was manifested by a decreased biomass and production of saury, but an increase in biomass and production of sardine and filefish in Korean waters. After 1988, recruitment, biomass, and production of sardine collapsed while those of mackerel substantially increased. Based on these observations, hypotheses on the relationship between the climate-driven oceanic changes and changes in fisheries resources were developed and are discussed.

  20. Climate change and the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Andrew; Murphy, Eugene J; Meredith, Michael P; King, John C; Peck, Lloyd S; Barnes, David K A; Smith, Raymond C

    2007-01-29

    The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading. PMID:17405211

  1. Climate change and the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula

    PubMed Central

    Clarke, Andrew; Murphy, Eugene J; Meredith, Michael P; King, John C; Peck, Lloyd S; Barnes, David K.A; Smith, Raymond C

    2006-01-01

    The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading. PMID:17405211

  2. Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

    2002-01-01

    Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction

  3. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

    PubMed

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

    2016-07-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. PMID:26990671

  4. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  5. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barange, M.; Merino, G.; Blanchard, J. L.; Scholtens, J.; Harle, J.; Allison, E. H.; Allen, J. I.; Holt, J.; Jennings, S.

    2014-03-01

    Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean +3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness and trade practices will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

  6. Implications of climate change for northern Canada: freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Wrona, Fred J; Reist, James D

    2009-07-01

    Climate variability and change is projected to have significant effects on the physical, chemical, and biological components of northern Canadian marine, terrestrial, and freshwater systems. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests. The northward migration of species and the disruption and competition from invading species are already occurring and will continue to affect marine, terrestrial, and freshwater communities. Shifting environmental conditions will likely introduce new animal-transmitted diseases and redistribute some existing diseases, affecting key economic resources and some human populations. Stress on populations of iconic wildlife species, such as the polar bear, ringed seals, and whales, will continue as a result of changes in critical sea-ice habitat interactions. Where these stresses affect economically and culturally important species, they will have significant effects on people and regional economies. Further integrated, field-based monitoring and research programs, and the development of predictive models are required to allow for more detailed and comprehensive projections of change to be made, and to inform the development and implementation of appropriate adaptation, wildlife, and habitat conservation and protection strategies. PMID:19714961

  7. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    reorganizations in the earth's climate system. Additional sedimentary records of marine fish abundance and corresponding paleoenvironmental conditions are likely to further enhance our understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics.

  8. RETRACTED: Impacts of past climate variability on marine ecosystems: Lessons from sediment records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emeis, Kay-Christian; Finney, Bruce P.; Ganeshram, Raja; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Poulsen, Bo; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    This article has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief and Author. Please see Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal ( http://www.elsevier.com/locate/withdrawalpolicy). Reason: Paragraph 3.3 of this article contains text (verbatim) that had already appeared in a book chapter "Variability from scales in marine sediments and other historical records" by David B. Field, Tim R. Baumgartner, Vicente Ferreira, Dimitri Gutierrez, Hector Lozano-Montes, Renato Salvatteci and Andy Soutar. The book is entitled "Climate Change and Small Pelagic Fish", 2009, edited by Dave Checkley, Claude Roy, Jurgen Alheit, and Yoshioki Oozeki (Cambridge University Press; 2009).The authors would like to apologize for this administrative error on their part.

  9. The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts.

    PubMed

    Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D; Hay, Mark E; Poore, Alistair G B; Campbell, Alexandra H; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L; Booth, David J; Coleman, Melinda A; Feary, David A; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K

    2014-08-22

    Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to 'barrens' when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

  10. The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts

    PubMed Central

    Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J.; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A.; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

  11. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Blanchard, Julia L.; Jennings, Simon; Holmes, Robert; Harle, James; Merino, Gorka; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Barange, Manuel

    2012-01-01

    Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%. PMID:23007086

  12. Information Needs Assessment for Coastal and Marine Management and Policy: Ecosystem Services Under Changing Climatic, Land Use, and Demographic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldsmith, Kaitlin A.; Granek, Elise F.; Lubitow, Amy

    2015-12-01

    Changing climatic, demographic, and land use conditions are projected to alter the provisioning of ecosystem services in estuarine, coastal, and nearshore marine ecosystems, necessitating mitigation and adaptation policies and management. The current paradigm of research efforts occurring in parallel to, rather than in collaboration with, decision makers will be insufficient for the rapid responses required to adapt to and mitigate for projected changing conditions. Here, we suggest a different paradigm: one where research begins by engaging decision makers in the identification of priority data needs (biophysical, economic, and social). This paper uses synthesized interview data to provide insight into the varied demands for scientific research as described by decision makers working on coastal issues in Oregon, USA. The findings highlight the need to recognize (1) the differing framing of ecosystem services by decision makers versus scientists; and (2) the differing data priorities relevant to inland versus coastal decision makers. The findings further serve to highlight the need for decision makers, scientists, and funders to engage in increased communication. This research is an important first step in advancing efforts toward evidence-based decision making in Oregon and provides a template for further research across the US.

  13. Linking climate to population variability in marine ecosystems characterized by non-simple dynamics: Conceptual templates and schematic constructs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakun, Andrew

    2010-02-01

    The ability to abstract and symbolize ideas and knowledge as simplified schematic constructs is an important element of scientific creativity and communication. Availability of such generalized symbolic constructs may be particularly important when addressing a complex adaptive system such as a marine ecosystem. Various examples have appeared in the climate-fisheries literature, each more or less effectively integrating hypothesized effects of several interacting environmental and/or biological processes in controlling population dynamics of exploited fish species. A selection of these are herein presented and reviewed, including match-mismatch, connectivity, school trap, loopholes, ocean triads, stable ocean hypothesis, several classes of nonlinear feedback loops (e.g., ' P2P', school-mix feedback, predator pit), as well as several prominent large-scale integrative climatic index series ( SOI, NAO, PDO). The importance of considering the potential for adaptation and/or rapid evolution is stressed. An argument is offered for the potential utility of such widely recognizable schematic concepts in offering relatively well-understood, fairly well-defined frameworks for comparative identification and elaboration of important mechanistic linkages between climate variability and fishery dynamics, as well as in easing effective communication among scientists from different regions and disciplinary backgrounds. Certain difficulties in the application of the comparative method are discussed. It is suggested that alleviation of such difficulties may be one of the major benefits of international collaborative programs such as GLOBEC and IMBER.

  14. Towards end-to-end models for investigating the effects of climate and fishing in marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travers, M.; Shin, Y.-J.; Jennings, S.; Cury, P.

    2007-12-01

    End-to-end models that represent ecosystem components from primary producers to top predators, linked through trophic interactions and affected by the abiotic environment, are expected to provide valuable tools for assessing the effects of climate change and fishing on ecosystem dynamics. Here, we review the main process-based approaches used for marine ecosystem modelling, focusing on the extent of the food web modelled, the forcing factors considered, the trophic processes represented, as well as the potential use and further development of the models. We consider models of a subset of the food web, models which represent the first attempts to couple low and high trophic levels, integrated models of the whole ecosystem, and size spectrum models. Comparisons within and among these groups of models highlight the preferential use of functional groups at low trophic levels and species at higher trophic levels and the different ways in which the models account for abiotic processes. The model comparisons also highlight the importance of choosing an appropriate spatial dimension for representing organism dynamics. Many of the reviewed models could be extended by adding components and by ensuring that the full life cycles of species components are represented, but end-to-end models should provide full coverage of ecosystem components, the integration of physical and biological processes at different scales and two-way interactions between ecosystem components. We suggest that this is best achieved by coupling models, but there are very few existing cases where the coupling supports true two-way interaction. The advantages of coupling models are that the extent of discretization and representation can be targeted to the part of the food web being considered, making their development time- and cost-effective. Processes such as predation can be coupled to allow the propagation of forcing factors effects up and down the food web. However, there needs to be a stronger focus

  15. Climate-induced changes in bottom-up and top-down processes independently alter a marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Jochum, Malte; Schneider, Florian D; Crowe, Tasman P; Brose, Ulrich; O'Gorman, Eoin J

    2012-11-01

    Climate change has complex structural impacts on coastal ecosystems. Global warming is linked to a widespread decline in body size, whereas increased flood frequency can amplify nutrient enrichment through enhanced run-off. Altered population body-size structure represents a disruption in top-down control, whereas eutrophication embodies a change in bottom-up forcing. These processes are typically studied in isolation and little is known about their potential interactive effects. Here, we present the results of an in situ experiment examining the combined effects of top-down and bottom-up forces on the structure of a coastal marine community. Reduced average body mass of the top predator (the shore crab, Carcinus maenas) and nutrient enrichment combined additively to alter mean community body mass. Nutrient enrichment increased species richness and overall density of organisms. Reduced top-predator body mass increased community biomass. Additionally, we found evidence for an allometrically induced trophic cascade. Here, the reduction in top-predator body mass enabled greater biomass of intermediate fish predators within the mesocosms. This, in turn, suppressed key micrograzers, which led to an overall increase in microalgal biomass. This response highlights the possibility for climate-induced trophic cascades, driven by altered size structure of populations, rather than species extinction. PMID:23007084

  16. Climate-induced changes in bottom-up and top-down processes independently alter a marine ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Jochum, Malte; Schneider, Florian D.; Crowe, Tasman P.; Brose, Ulrich; O'Gorman, Eoin J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change has complex structural impacts on coastal ecosystems. Global warming is linked to a widespread decline in body size, whereas increased flood frequency can amplify nutrient enrichment through enhanced run-off. Altered population body-size structure represents a disruption in top-down control, whereas eutrophication embodies a change in bottom-up forcing. These processes are typically studied in isolation and little is known about their potential interactive effects. Here, we present the results of an in situ experiment examining the combined effects of top-down and bottom-up forces on the structure of a coastal marine community. Reduced average body mass of the top predator (the shore crab, Carcinus maenas) and nutrient enrichment combined additively to alter mean community body mass. Nutrient enrichment increased species richness and overall density of organisms. Reduced top-predator body mass increased community biomass. Additionally, we found evidence for an allometrically induced trophic cascade. Here, the reduction in top-predator body mass enabled greater biomass of intermediate fish predators within the mesocosms. This, in turn, suppressed key micrograzers, which led to an overall increase in microalgal biomass. This response highlights the possibility for climate-induced trophic cascades, driven by altered size structure of populations, rather than species extinction. PMID:23007084

  17. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    PubMed

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-01

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years. PMID:23908226

  18. Constructing an Eocene Marine Ecosystem Sensitivity Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'haenens, S.; Bornemann, A.; Speijer, R. P.; Hull, P. M.

    2014-12-01

    A key question in the face of current global environmental change is how marine ecosystems will respond and evolve in the future. To answer this, we first need to understand the relationship between environmental and ecosystem change - i.e., the ecosystem sensitivity. Addressing this question requires understanding of how biota respond to (a succession of) sudden environmental perturbations of varying sizes and durations in varying background conditions (i.e., climatic, oceanographic, biotic). Here, we compare new and published data from the Early to Middle Eocene greenhouse world to understand the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to background environmental change and hyperthermal events. This work focuses on the early Paleogene, because it is considered to be a good analog for a future high CO2 world. Newly generated high-resolution multiproxy datasets based on northern Atlantic DSDP Leg 48 and IODP Leg 342 material will allow us to compare the marine ecosystem responses (including bentho-pelagic systems) to abiotic drivers across climatic disruptions of differing magnitude. Initial results of a benthic foraminiferal community comparison including the PETM and ETM2 hyperthermals in the northeastern Atlantic DSDP sites 401 and 5501 suggest that benthic ecosystem sensitivity may actually be non-linearly linked to background climate states as reflected by a range of geochemical proxies (XRF, TOC, CaCO3, grain sizes, XRD clay mineralogy and foraminiferal δ18O, δ13C, Mg/Ca)2,3, in contrast to planktic communities4. Testing the type of scaling across different taxa, communities, initial background conditions and time scales may be the first big step to disentangle the often synergistic effects of environmental change on ecosystems5. References: 1D'haenens et al., 2012, in prep. 2Bornemann et al., 2014, EPSL 3D'haenens et al., 2014, PA 4Gibbs et al., 2012, Biogeosc. 5 Norris et al., 2013, Science

  19. Ecotoxicology of tropical marine ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, E.C.; Gassman, N.J.; Firman, J.C.; Richmond, R.H.; Power, E.A.

    1997-01-01

    The negative effects of chemical contaminants on tropical marine ecosystems are of increasing concern as human populations expand adjacent to these communities. Watershed streams and ground water carry a variety of chemicals from agricultural, industrial, and domestic activities, while winds and currents transport pollutants from atmospheric and oceanic sources to these coastal ecosystems. The implications of the limited information available on impacts of chemical stressors on mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and coral reefs are discussed in the context of ecosystem management and ecological risk assessment. Three classes of pollutants have received attention: heavy metals, petroleum, and synthetic organics. Heavy metals have been detected in all three ecosystems, causing physiological stress, reduced reproductive success, and outright mortality in associated invertebrates and fishes. Oil spills have been responsible for the destruction of entire coastal shallow-water communities, with recovery requiring years. Herbicides are particularly detrimental to mangroves and seagrasses and adversely affect the animal-algal symbioses in corals. Pesticides interfere with chemical cues responsible for key biological processes, including reproduction and recruitment of a variety of organisms. Information is lacking with regard to long-term recovery, indicator species, and biomarkers for tropical communities. Critical areas that are beginning to be addressed include the development of appropriate benchmarks for risk assessment, baseline monitoring criteria, and effective management strategies to protect tropical marine ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic disturbance.

  20. Marine pelagic ecosystems: the west Antarctic Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Ducklow, Hugh W; Baker, Karen; Martinson, Douglas G; Quetin, Langdon B; Ross, Robin M; Smith, Raymond C; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Vernet, Maria; Fraser, William

    2007-01-29

    The marine ecosystem of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) extends from the Bellingshausen Sea to the northern tip of the peninsula and from the mostly glaciated coast across the continental shelf to the shelf break in the west. The glacially sculpted coastline along the peninsula is highly convoluted and characterized by deep embayments that are often interconnected by channels that facilitate transport of heat and nutrients into the shelf domain. The ecosystem is divided into three subregions, the continental slope, shelf and coastal regions, each with unique ocean dynamics, water mass and biological distributions. The WAP shelf lies within the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and like other SIZs, the WAP system is very productive, supporting large stocks of marine mammals, birds and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba. Ecosystem dynamics is dominated by the seasonal and interannual variation in sea ice extent and retreat. The Antarctic Peninsula is one among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, having experienced a 2 degrees C increase in the annual mean temperature and a 6 degrees C rise in the mean winter temperature since 1950. Delivery of heat from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has increased significantly in the past decade, sufficient to drive to a 0.6 degrees C warming of the upper 300 m of shelf water. In the past 50 years and continuing in the twenty-first century, the warm, moist maritime climate of the northern WAP has been migrating south, displacing the once dominant cold, dry continental Antarctic climate and causing multi-level responses in the marine ecosystem. Ecosystem responses to the regional warming include increased heat transport, decreased sea ice extent and duration, local declines in icedependent Adélie penguins, increase in ice-tolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins, alterations in phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition and changes in krill recruitment, abundance and availability to predators. The climate

  1. Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic Peninsula

    PubMed Central

    Ducklow, Hugh W; Baker, Karen; Martinson, Douglas G; Quetin, Langdon B; Ross, Robin M; Smith, Raymond C; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Vernet, Maria; Fraser, William

    2006-01-01

    The marine ecosystem of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) extends from the Bellingshausen Sea to the northern tip of the peninsula and from the mostly glaciated coast across the continental shelf to the shelf break in the west. The glacially sculpted coastline along the peninsula is highly convoluted and characterized by deep embayments that are often interconnected by channels that facilitate transport of heat and nutrients into the shelf domain. The ecosystem is divided into three subregions, the continental slope, shelf and coastal regions, each with unique ocean dynamics, water mass and biological distributions. The WAP shelf lies within the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and like other SIZs, the WAP system is very productive, supporting large stocks of marine mammals, birds and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba. Ecosystem dynamics is dominated by the seasonal and interannual variation in sea ice extent and retreat. The Antarctic Peninsula is one among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, having experienced a 2°C increase in the annual mean temperature and a 6°C rise in the mean winter temperature since 1950. Delivery of heat from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has increased significantly in the past decade, sufficient to drive to a 0.6°C warming of the upper 300 m of shelf water. In the past 50 years and continuing in the twenty-first century, the warm, moist maritime climate of the northern WAP has been migrating south, displacing the once dominant cold, dry continental Antarctic climate and causing multi-level responses in the marine ecosystem. Ecosystem responses to the regional warming include increased heat transport, decreased sea ice extent and duration, local declines in ice-dependent Adélie penguins, increase in ice-tolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins, alterations in phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition and changes in krill recruitment, abundance and availability to predators. The climate/ecological gradients

  2. From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

    PubMed

    Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

    2016-06-01

    climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. PMID:26855008

  3. Combining modeling and observations to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curchitser, Enrique N.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Ito, Shin-ichi; Peck, Myron A.; Kishi, Michio J.

    2015-11-01

    The linkage between climate-scale variability and the dynamics of marine ecosystems has been the subject of increasing research. From global estimates and predictions of primary productivity to the dynamics of near-shore fish populations, the concept of environmental drivers affecting marine ecosystems is often used. Despite significant correlations between the environment and various aspects of the ecosystem, cause-and-effect relationships between climate and biology remain, in most cases, elusive. Additionally, in ecosystems experiencing high human activities (e.g., coastal development) or generating high commercial or recreational value (e.g., fisheries), understanding the ecosystem dynamics becomes more complicated by the need to consider humans as dynamic members of the ecosystem.

  4. Fronts in Large Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belkin, Igor M.; Cornillon, Peter C.; Sherman, Kenneth

    2009-04-01

    Oceanic fronts shape marine ecosystems; therefore front mapping and characterization are among the most important aspects of physical oceanography. Here we report on the first global remote sensing survey of fronts in the Large Marine Ecosystems (LME). This survey is based on a unique frontal data archive assembled at the University of Rhode Island. Thermal fronts were automatically derived with the edge detection algorithm of Cayula and Cornillon (1992, 1995, 1996) from 12 years of twice-daily, global, 9-km resolution satellite sea surface temperature (SST) fields to produce synoptic (nearly instantaneous) frontal maps, and to compute the long-term mean frequency of occurrence of SST fronts and their gradients. These synoptic and long-term maps were used to identify major quasi-stationary fronts and to derive provisional frontal distribution maps for all LMEs. Since SST fronts are typically collocated with fronts in other water properties such as salinity, density and chlorophyll, digital frontal paths from SST frontal maps can be used in studies of physical-biological correlations at fronts. Frontal patterns in several exemplary LMEs are described and compared, including those for: the East and West Bering Sea LMEs, Sea of Okhotsk LME, East China Sea LME, Yellow Sea LME, North Sea LME, East and West Greenland Shelf LMEs, Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf LME, Northeast and Southeast US Continental Shelf LMEs, Gulf of Mexico LME, and Patagonian Shelf LME. Seasonal evolution of frontal patterns in major upwelling zones reveals an order-of-magnitude growth of frontal scales from summer to winter. A classification of LMEs with regard to the origin and physics of their respective dominant fronts is presented. The proposed classification lends itself to comparative studies of frontal ecosystems.

  5. Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, Anna; Marinov, Irina; Leung, Shirley

    2015-09-01

    We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in projected phytoplankton biomass, productivity, and organic carbon export changes over the twenty-first century in the RCP8.5 scenario (years 2080-2099) compared to the historical scenario (years 1980-1999). All models predict decreases in primary and export production globally of up to 30 % of the historical value. We divide the ocean into biomes using upwelling velocities, sea-ice coverage, and maximum mixed layer depths. Models generally show expansion of subtropical, oligotrophic biomes and contraction of marginal sea-ice biomes. The equatorial and subtropical biomes account for 77 % of the total modern oceanic primary production (PP), but contribute 117 % to the global drop in PP, slightly compensated by an increase in PP in high latitudes. The phytoplankton productivity response to climate is surprisingly similar across models in low latitude biomes, indicating a common set of modeled processes controlling productivity changes. Ecological responses are less consistent across models in the subpolar and sea-ice biomes. Inter-hemispheric asymmetries in physical drivers result in stronger climate-driven relative decreases in biomass, productivity, and export of organic matter in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere low latitudes. The export ratio, a measure of the efficiency of carbon export to the deep ocean, decreases across low and mid-latitude biomes and models with more than one phytoplankton type, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Inter-model variability is much higher for biogeochemical than physical variables in the historical period, but is very similar among predicted 100-year biogeochemical and physical changes. We include detailed biome-by-biome analyses, discuss the decoupling between biomass, productivity and export across biomes and models, and present

  6. Climate change and marine life

    PubMed Central

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F.; Buckley, Lauren; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schoeman, David S.; Schwing, Frank; Sydeman, William J.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change. PMID:22791706

  7. Terrestrial ecosystems and climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Emanuel, W.R. ); Schimel, D.S. . Natural Resources Ecology Lab.)

    1990-01-01

    The structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems depend on climate, and in turn, ecosystems influence atmospheric composition and climate. A comprehensive, global model of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics is needed. A hierarchical approach appears advisable given currently available concepts, data, and formalisms. The organization of models can be based on the temporal scales involved. A rapidly responding model describes the processes associated with photosynthesis, including carbon, moisture, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. An intermediate model handles subannual variations that are closely associated with allocation and seasonal changes in productivity and decomposition. A slow response model describes plant growth and succession with associated element cycling over decades and centuries. These three levels of terrestrial models are linked through common specifications of environmental conditions and constrain each other. 58 refs.

  8. Mining Ecosystem and Climate Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, V.

    2012-12-01

    Climate related observations from multiple sources of information, such as satellite remote sensors, or from in-situ sensors and sensor networks, provide terabytes of temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal data. These massive and information rich datasets offer huge potential for advancing the science of climate change and understanding the influences of climatic drivers on the not-so-well predicted climate extremes (or naturally occurring disturbance events), which may cause extreme stresses on a broad range of socio-economic activities (e.g., forest fires, heat waves, large storms and droughts). Current analysis techniques do not fully harness the potential benefits of these climate and ecosystem datasets and systematic efforts in exploring climatic influences on highly variable (unpredictable) extreme events are lacking, which could help in reducing our uncertainty in their prediction (understanding). Climate scientists often need to develop qualitative inferences about extreme events based on insights from observations (e.g., increase in hurricane intensity) or conceptual understanding (e.g., relation of wildfires to regional warming or drying and hurricanes to sea surface temperature). As an example, climate teleconnections, which are long-range spatio-temporal dependencies, such as climate dipoles, are among the most consistent attributes of the climate system, linking oceanic dynamics with inter-annual variability in the extremes of temperature and intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones and forest fires. These urgent societal priorities offer fertile grounds for knowledge discovery approaches using a combination of hypothesis-driven data analysis and data-guided discovery processes.

  9. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, J.; Yletyinen, J.; Biggs, R.; Blenckner, T.; Peterson, G.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.

  10. Emergent Properties Delineate Marine Ecosystem Perturbation and Recovery.

    PubMed

    Link, Jason S; Pranovi, Fabio; Libralato, Simone; Coll, Marta; Christensen, Villy; Solidoro, Cosimo; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2015-11-01

    Whether there are common and emergent patterns from marine ecosystems remains an important question because marine ecosystems provide billions of dollars of ecosystem services to the global community, but face many perturbations with significant consequences. Here, we develop cumulative trophic patterns for marine ecosystems, featuring sigmoidal cumulative biomass (cumB)-trophic level (TL) and 'hockey-stick' production (cumP)-cumB curves. The patterns have a trophodynamic theoretical basis and capitalize on emergent, fundamental, and invariant features of marine ecosystems. These patterns have strong global support, being observed in over 120 marine ecosystems. Parameters from these curves elucidate the direction and magnitude of marine ecosystem perturbation or recovery; if biomass and productivity can be monitored effectively over time, such relations may prove to be broadly useful. Curve parameters are proposed as possible ecosystem thresholds, perhaps to better manage the marine ecosystems of the world. PMID:26456382

  11. Climatic Impacts and resilience of coastal ecosystems and fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Micheli, F.

    2012-12-01

    Marine and coastal ecosystems and human communities around the world are impacted by local anthropogenic pressures and by climate change, resulting in decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, habitat degradation, economic losses, and health and safety risks as a consequence of the changing and more variable climate. Climatic impacts occur both through altered physical conditions and variability, e.g., seawater temperature and sea level, and through a suite of chemical changes, including ocean acidification and hypoxia. In particular, time series analyses have highlighted declines in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in the ocean over the last several decades. In addition to these global trends of decreasing DO, hypoxic conditions have been documented at several coastal locations within productive upwelling-driven ecosystems, including the California Current region, resulting in high mortality of ecologically and commercially important nearshore marine species and significant economic losses. The capacity of local ecosystems and associated human communities to adapt to these pressures depends on their resilience, that is the ability of ecosystems to absorb disturbance while retaining function and continuing to provide ecosystem services, and the ability of people to adapt to change in their environment by altering their behaviors and interactions. I will present global assessments of the cumulative impacts of climatic and local anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems, and results of interdisciplinary research investigating the current impacts of climate change on coastal marine ecosystems and human communities of the Pacific coast of Baja California, Mexico, and the influences of local and global feedbacks on the resilience and adaptive capacity of these systems.

  12. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  13. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  14. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  15. Sunnyvale Marine Climate Deep Retrofit

    SciTech Connect

    German, A.; Siddiqui, A.; Dakin, B.

    2014-11-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) and Allen Gilliland of One Sky Homes collaborated on a marine climate retrofit project designed to meet both Passive House (PH) and Building America program standards. The scope included sealing, installing wall, roof and floor insulation (previously lacking), replacing windows, upgrading the heating and cooling system, and installing mechanical ventilation.

  16. Sunnyvale Marine Climate Deep Retrofit

    SciTech Connect

    German, A.; Siddiqui, A.; Dakin, B.

    2014-11-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) and Allen Gilliland of One Sky Homes collaborated on a marine climate retrofit project designed to meet both Passive House (PH) and Building America (BA) program standards. The scope included sealing, installing wall, roof and floor insulation (previously lacking), replacing windows, upgrading the heating and cooling system, and installing.

  17. Large-scale marine ecosystem change and the conservation of marine mammals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Odell, D.K.

    2008-01-01

    Papers in this Special Feature stem from a symposium on large-scale ecosystem change and the conservation of marine mammals convened at the 86th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Mammalogists in June 2006. Major changes are occurring in multiple aspects of the marine environment at unprecedented rates, within the life spans of some individual marine mammals. Drivers of change include shifts in climate, acoustic pollution, disturbances to trophic structure, fisheries interactions, harmful algal blooms, and environmental contaminants. This Special Feature provides an in-depth examination of 3 issues that are particularly troublesome. The 1st article notes the huge spatial and temporal scales of change to which marine mammals are showing ecological responses, and how these species can function as sentinels of such change. The 2nd paper describes the serious problems arising from conflicts with fisheries, and the 3rd contribution reviews the growing issues associated with underwater noise. ?? 2008 American Society of Mammalogists.

  18. Ocean acidification and its potential effects on marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guinotte, John M; Fabry, Victoria J

    2008-01-01

    Ocean acidification is rapidly changing the carbonate system of the world oceans. Past mass extinction events have been linked to ocean acidification, and the current rate of change in seawater chemistry is unprecedented. Evidence suggests that these changes will have significant consequences for marine taxa, particularly those that build skeletons, shells, and tests of biogenic calcium carbonate. Potential changes in species distributions and abundances could propagate through multiple trophic levels of marine food webs, though research into the long-term ecosystem impacts of ocean acidification is in its infancy. This review attempts to provide a general synthesis of known and/or hypothesized biological and ecosystem responses to increasing ocean acidification. Marine taxa covered in this review include tropical reef-building corals, cold-water corals, crustose coralline algae, Halimeda, benthic mollusks, echinoderms, coccolithophores, foraminifera, pteropods, seagrasses, jellyfishes, and fishes. The risk of irreversible ecosystem changes due to ocean acidification should enlighten the ongoing CO(2) emissions debate and make it clear that the human dependence on fossil fuels must end quickly. Political will and significant large-scale investment in clean-energy technologies are essential if we are to avoid the most damaging effects of human-induced climate change, including ocean acidification. PMID:18566099

  19. Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This techn...

  20. Variability and management of large marine ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, K.; Alexander, L.

    1986-01-01

    Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) are being subjected to increasing stress from industrial and urban wastes, aerosol contaminants, and heavy exploitation of renewable resources. Recent studies suggest that the population structure of LMEs can be altered by these factors, resulting in a negative economic impact. Ecosystem perturbations have been documented from the Bering Sea to the Antarctic, from the Gulf of Thailand to the El Nino region off the Peruvian coast. This bood is a review of effective means for measuring changes in populations and productivity, physical-chemical environments, and management options for LMEs. LMEs are treated holistically as regional management units, bringing together fragmented efforts to optimize ocean resources. Strategies for measuring natural variability are examined against a background of anthropogenically induced pollution and over-exploitation.

  1. Marine reserves help coastal ecosystems cope with extreme weather.

    PubMed

    Olds, Andrew D; Pitt, Kylie A; Maxwell, Paul S; Babcock, Russell C; Rissik, David; Connolly, Rod M

    2014-10-01

    Natural ecosystems have experienced widespread degradation due to human activities. Consequently, enhancing resilience has become a primary objective for conservation. Nature reserves are a favored management tool, but we need clearer empirical tests of whether they can impart resilience. Catastrophic flooding in early 2011 impacted coastal ecosystems across eastern Australia. We demonstrate that marine reserves enhanced the capacity of coral reefs to withstand flood impacts. Reserve reefs resisted the impact of perturbation, whilst fished reefs did not. Changes on fished reefs were correlated with the magnitude of flood impact, whereas variation on reserve reefs was related to ecological variables. Herbivory and coral recruitment are critical ecological processes that underpin reef resilience, and were greater in reserves and further enhanced on reserve reefs near mangroves. The capacity of reserves to mitigate external disturbances and promote ecological resilience will be critical to resisting an increased frequency of climate-related disturbance. PMID:24849111

  2. Adaptive classification of marine ecosystems: Identifying biologically meaningful regions in the marine environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregr, Edward J.; Bodtker, Karin M.

    2007-03-01

    The move to ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries and endangered species would be greatly facilitated by a quantitative method for identifying marine ecosystems that captures temporal dynamics at meso-scale (10s or 100s of kilometers) resolutions. Understanding the dynamics of ecosystem boundaries, which may differ according to the species of interest or the management objectives, is a fundamental challenge of ecosystem-based management. We present an adaptive ecosystem classification that begins to address these challenges. To demonstrate the approach, we quantitatively bounded distinct, biologically meaningful marine regions in the North Pacific Ocean based on physical oceanography. We identified the regions by applying image classification algorithms to a comprehensive description of the ocean's surface, derived from an oceanographic circulation model. Our resulting maps illustrate 15 distinct marine regions. The size and location of these regions related well to previously described water masses in the North Pacific. We investigated seasonal and long-term changes in the pattern of regions and their boundaries by dividing the oceanographic data into four seasons and two 10-year time periods, one on either side of the 1976-1977 North Pacific Ocean climate regime shift. We compared our results for each season across the regime shift and for sequential seasons within regimes using the Kappa Index of Agreement and the index of Average Mutual Information. Seasonal patterns were more similar between regimes than from one season to the next within a regime, while the magnitude of seasonal transitions appeared to differ before and after the regime shift. We assessed the biological relevance of the identified regions using seasonal maps derived from remotely sensed chlorophyll- a concentrations ([chl-a]). We used Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon rank sum tests to evaluate the correspondence between the [chl-a] maps and our post-regime shift regions. There was a

  3. Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

    PubMed

    Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

    2016-01-01

    Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales. PMID:27573049

  4. Upgrading Marine Ecosystem Restoration Using Ecological‐Social Concepts

    PubMed Central

    Abelson, Avigdor; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Reed, Daniel C.; Orth, Robert J.; Kendrick, Gary A.; Beck, Michael W.; Belmaker, Jonathan; Krause, Gesche; Edgar, Graham J.; Airoldi, Laura; Brokovich, Eran; France, Robert; Shashar, Nadav; de Blaeij, Arianne; Stambler, Noga; Salameh, Pierre; Shechter, Mordechai; Nelson, Peter A.

    2015-01-01

    Conservation and environmental management are principal countermeasures to the degradation of marine ecosystems and their services. However, in many cases, current practices are insufficient to reverse ecosystem declines. We suggest that restoration ecology, the science underlying the concepts and tools needed to restore ecosystems, must be recognized as an integral element for marine conservation and environmental management. Marine restoration ecology is a young scientific discipline, often with gaps between its application and the supporting science. Bridging these gaps is essential to using restoration as an effective management tool and reversing the decline of marine ecosystems and their services. Ecological restoration should address objectives that include improved ecosystem services, and it therefore should encompass social–ecological elements rather than focusing solely on ecological parameters. We recommend using existing management frameworks to identify clear restoration targets, to apply quantitative tools for assessment, and to make the re-establishment of ecosystem services a criterion for success. PMID:26977115

  5. Biomanipulation: a tool in marine ecosystem management and restoration?

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Hansson, Lars-Anders

    2010-12-01

    Widespread losses of production and conservation values make large-scale ecosystem restoration increasingly urgent. Ecological restoration by means of biomanipulation, i.e., by fishing out planktivores to reduce the predation pressure on herbivorous zooplankton, has proved to be an effective tool in restoring degraded lakes and coastal ecosystems. Whether biomanipulation may prove a useful restoration method in open and structurally complex marine ecosystems is, however, still unknown. To promote a recovery of the collapsed stock of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), large-scale biomanipulation of sprat (Sprattus sprattus), the main planktivore in the Baltic Sea, has been suggested as a possible management approach. We study the effect of biomanipulation on sprat using a statistical food-web model, which integrates internal interactions between the main fish species of the Central Baltic Sea, with external forcing through commercial fishing, zooplankton, and climate. By running multiple, stochastic simulations of reductions in sprat spawning stock biomass (SSB) only minor increases in cod SSB were detected, none of which brought the cod significantly above ecologically safe levels. On the contrary, reductions in cod fishing mortality and/or improved climatic conditions would promote a significant recovery of the stock. By this we demonstrate that an ecosystem-scale biomanipulation, with the main focus of reinstating the dominance of cod in the Baltic Sea may likely be ecologically ineffective, operationally difficult, and costly. We argue that reducing exploitation pressure on Eastern Baltic cod to ecologically sound levels is a far more appealing management strategy in promoting a long-term recovery and a sustainable fishery of the stock. PMID:21265454

  6. How Does Climate Change Affect the Bering Sea Ecosystem?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigler, Michael F.; Harvey, H. Rodger; Ashjian, Carin J.; Lomas, Michael W.; Napp, Jeffrey M.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Van Pelt, Thomas I.

    2010-11-01

    The Bering Sea is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world, sustaining nearly half of U.S. annual commercial fish catches and providing food and cultural value to thousands of coastal and island residents. Fish and crab are abundant in the Bering Sea; whales, seals, and seabirds migrate there every year. In winter, the topography, latitude, atmosphere, and ocean circulation combine to produce a sea ice advance in the Bering Sea unmatched elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, and in spring the retreating ice; longer daylight hours; and nutrient-rich, deep-ocean waters forced up onto the broad continental shelf result in intense marine productivity (Figure 1). This seasonal ice cover is a major driver of Bering Sea ecology, making this ecosystem particularly sensitive to changes in climate. Predicted changes in ice cover in the coming decades have intensified concern about the future of this economically and culturally important region. In response, the North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) and the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) entered into a partnership in 2007 to support the Bering Sea Project, a comprehensive $52 million investigation to understand how climate change is affecting the Bering Sea ecosystem, ranging from lower trophic levels (e.g., plankton) to fish, seabirds, marine mammals, and, ultimately, humans. The project integrates two research programs, the NSF Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST) and the NPRB Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program (BSIERP), with substantial in-kind contributions from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

  7. Draft Genome Sequences of Gammaproteobacterial Methanotrophs Isolated from Marine Ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Flynn, James D; Hirayama, Hisako; Sakai, Yasuyoshi; Dunfield, Peter F; Klotz, Martin G; Knief, Claudia; Op den Camp, Huub J M; Jetten, Mike S M; Khmelenina, Valentina N; Trotsenko, Yuri A; Murrell, J Colin; Semrau, Jeremy D; Svenning, Mette M; Stein, Lisa Y; Kyrpides, Nikos; Shapiro, Nicole; Woyke, Tanja; Bringel, Françoise; Vuilleumier, Stéphane; DiSpirito, Alan A; Kalyuzhnaya, Marina G

    2016-01-01

    The genome sequences of Methylobacter marinus A45, Methylobacter sp. strain BBA5.1, and Methylomarinum vadi IT-4 were obtained. These aerobic methanotrophs are typical members of coastal and hydrothermal vent marine ecosystems. PMID:26798114

  8. Draft Genome Sequences of Gammaproteobacterial Methanotrophs Isolated from Marine Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Flynn, James D.; Hirayama, Hisako; Sakai, Yasuyoshi; Dunfield, Peter F.; Knief, Claudia; Op den Camp, Huub J. M.; Jetten, Mike S. M.; Khmelenina, Valentina N.; Trotsenko, Yuri A.; Murrell, J. Colin; Semrau, Jeremy D.; Svenning, Mette M.; Stein, Lisa Y.; Kyrpides, Nikos; Shapiro, Nicole; Woyke, Tanja; Bringel, Françoise; Vuilleumier, Stéphane; DiSpirito, Alan A.

    2016-01-01

    The genome sequences of Methylobacter marinus A45, Methylobacter sp. strain BBA5.1, and Methylomarinum vadi IT-4 were obtained. These aerobic methanotrophs are typical members of coastal and hydrothermal vent marine ecosystems. PMID:26798114

  9. Evidence that marine reserves enhance resilience to climatic impacts.

    PubMed

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Saenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Greenley, Ashley; Vazquez, Leonardo; Espinoza Montes, Jose Antonio; Rossetto, Marisa; De Leo, Giulio A

    2012-01-01

    Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection. PMID:22855690

  10. Evidence That Marine Reserves Enhance Resilience to Climatic Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Saenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Greenley, Ashley; Vazquez, Leonardo; Espinoza Montes, Jose Antonio; Rossetto, Marisa; De Leo, Giulio A.

    2012-01-01

    Establishment of marine protected areas, including fully protected marine reserves, is one of the few management tools available for local communities to combat the deleterious effect of large scale environmental impacts, including global climate change, on ocean ecosystems. Despite the common hope that reserves play this role, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of local protection against global problems is lacking. Here we show that marine reserves increase the resilience of marine populations to a mass mortality event possibly caused by climate-driven hypoxia. Despite high and widespread adult mortality of benthic invertebrates in Baja California, Mexico, that affected populations both within and outside marine reserves, juvenile replenishment of the species that supports local economies, the pink abalone Haliotis corrugata, remained stable within reserves because of large body size and high egg production of the protected adults. Thus, local protection provided resilience through greater resistance and faster recovery of protected populations. Moreover, this benefit extended to adjacent unprotected areas through larval spillover across the edges of the reserves. While climate change mitigation is being debated, coastal communities have few tools to slow down negative impacts of global environmental shifts. These results show that marine protected areas can provide such protection. PMID:22855690

  11. The role of sustained observations in tracking impacts of environmental change on marine biodiversity and ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Mieszkowska, N.; Sugden, H.; Firth, L. B.; Hawkins, S. J.

    2014-01-01

    Marine biodiversity currently faces unprecedented threats from multiple pressures arising from human activities. Global drivers such as climate change and ocean acidification interact with regional eutrophication, exploitation of commercial fish stocks and localized pressures including pollution, coastal development and the extraction of aggregates and fuel, causing alteration and degradation of habitats and communities. Segregating natural from anthropogenically induced change in marine ecosystems requires long-term, sustained observations of marine biota. In this review, we outline the history of biological recording in the coastal and shelf seas of the UK and Ireland and highlight where sustained observations have contributed new understanding of how anthropogenic activities have impacted on marine biodiversity. The contributions of sustained observations, from those collected at observatories, single station platforms and multiple-site programmes to the emergent field of multiple stressor impacts research, are discussed, along with implications for management and sustainable governance of marine resources in an era of unprecedented use of the marine environment. PMID:25157190

  12. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Deal, Clara; Jin, Meibing

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  13. Integration of Biogeochemistry and Marine Ecosystem Model in Mercator-Ocean Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Moussaoui, Abdelali; Dombrowsky, Eric; Moulin, Cyril; Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    Accounting for ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystem dynamic is of strong interest in the context of Earth System modelling to better represent the marine component to the global atmospheric cycle of greenhouse gazes that influence climate as CO2. Furthermore, treating the ocean as a whole is also the way to address large anthropogenic impacts on marine systems as climate change, nutrients loading, acidification, and eventually overfishing and habitat destructuring. To forecast how interactions between marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems respond to and force global change, several efforts have been promoted on biogeochemical integration into operational Mercator Ocean systems. The aim of this work is to implement a marine biogeochemical and ecosystem component at global scale into the MERCATOR operational system, using first PSY3 analysis at 1/4° then PSY4 at 1/12°. Previous works have conducted successfully the integration of a multi-nutrient and multi-plankton biogeochemical model (PISCES, N5P2Z2D2 type) into MERCATOR system. This allowed the use of MERCATOR operational analyses to drive near real time forecast of marine primary production. Results will be shown and advances on biogeochemical model integration within Mercator Systems will be discussed.

  14. Communicating Climate and Ecosystem Change in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soreide, N. N.; Overland, J. E.; Calder, J. A.; Rodionov, S.

    2005-12-01

    There is an explosion of interest in Northern Hemisphere climate, highlighting the importance of recent changes in the Arctic on mid-latitude climate and its impact on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional sea ice and tundra dominated arctic ecosystems are being reorganizing into warmer sub-arctic ecosystem types. Over the previous two years we have developed a comprehensive, near real-time arctic change detection protocol to track physical and biological changes for presentation on the web: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect. The effort provides a continuous update to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Report, released in November 2004. Principles for the protocol include an accessible narrative style, scientifically credible and objective indicators, notes multiple uses for the information, acknowledges uncertainties, and balances having too many indicators-which leads to information overload-and too few-which does not capture the complexity of the system. Screening criteria include concreteness, public awareness, being understandable, availability of historical time series, and sensitivity. The site provides sufficient information for an individual to make their own assessment regarding the balance of the evidence for tracking change. The product provides an overview, recent news, links to many arctic websites, and highlights climate, global impacts, land and marine ecosystems, and human consequences. Since its inception a year ago, it has averaged about 9000 hits an day on the web, and is a major information source as determined by Google search. The future direction focuses on understanding the causes for change. In spring 2005 we also presented a near real-time ecological and climatic surveillance website for the Bering Sea: www.beringclimate.noaa.gov. The site provides up-to-date information which ties northward shifts of fish, invertebrate and marine mammal populations to physical changes in the Arctic. This site is more technical than the

  15. Cumulative human impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea marine ecosystems: assessing current pressures and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Halpern, Benjamin S; Walbridge, Shaun; Ciriaco, Saul; Ferretti, Francesco; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lewison, Rebecca; Nykjaer, Leo; Rosenberg, Andrew A

    2013-01-01

    Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60-99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification), demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems. PMID:24324585

  16. Cumulative Human Impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea Marine Ecosystems: Assessing Current Pressures and Opportunities

    PubMed Central

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Walbridge, Shaun; Ciriaco, Saul; Ferretti, Francesco; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lewison, Rebecca; Nykjaer, Leo; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

    2013-01-01

    Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60–99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification), demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems. PMID:24324585

  17. Marine mammals' influence on ecosystem processes affecting fisheries in the Barents Sea is trivial.

    PubMed

    Corkeron, Peter J

    2009-04-23

    Some interpretations of ecosystem-based fishery management include culling marine mammals as an integral component. The current Norwegian policy on marine mammal management is one example. Scientific support for this policy includes the Scenario Barents Sea (SBS) models. These modelled interactions between cod, Gadus morhua, herring, Clupea harengus, capelin, Mallotus villosus and northern minke whales, Balaenoptera acutorostrata. Adding harp seals Phoca groenlandica into this top-down modelling approach resulted in unrealistic model outputs. Another set of models of the Barents Sea fish-fisheries system focused on interactions within and between the three fish populations, fisheries and climate. These model key processes of the system successfully. Continuing calls to support the SBS models despite their failure suggest a belief that marine mammal predation must be a problem for fisheries. The best available scientific evidence provides no justification for marine mammal culls as a primary component of an ecosystem-based approach to managing the fisheries of the Barents Sea. PMID:19126534

  18. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures.

    PubMed

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Llope, Marcos; Möllmann, Christian; Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F; Casini, Michele; Lindegren, Martin; Folke, Carl; Chr Stenseth, Nils

    2015-03-22

    Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change. PMID:25694626

  19. Transnational corporations as 'keystone actors' in marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Österblom, Henrik; Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Folke, Carl; Crona, Beatrice; Troell, Max; Merrie, Andrew; Rockström, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Keystone species have a disproportionate influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Here we analyze whether a keystone-like pattern can be observed in the relationship between transnational corporations and marine ecosystems globally. We show how thirteen corporations control 11-16% of the global marine catch (9-13 million tons) and 19-40% of the largest and most valuable stocks, including species that play important roles in their respective ecosystem. They dominate all segments of seafood production, operate through an extensive global network of subsidiaries and are profoundly involved in fisheries and aquaculture decision-making. Based on our findings, we define these companies as keystone actors of the Anthropocene. The phenomenon of keystone actors represents an increasingly important feature of the human-dominated world. Sustainable leadership by keystone actors could result in cascading effects throughout the entire seafood industry and enable a critical transition towards improved management of marine living resources and ecosystems. PMID:26017777

  20. Transnational Corporations as ‘Keystone Actors’ in Marine Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Folke, Carl; Crona, Beatrice; Troell, Max; Merrie, Andrew; Rockström, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Keystone species have a disproportionate influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Here we analyze whether a keystone-like pattern can be observed in the relationship between transnational corporations and marine ecosystems globally. We show how thirteen corporations control 11-16% of the global marine catch (9-13 million tons) and 19-40% of the largest and most valuable stocks, including species that play important roles in their respective ecosystem. They dominate all segments of seafood production, operate through an extensive global network of subsidiaries and are profoundly involved in fisheries and aquaculture decision-making. Based on our findings, we define these companies as keystone actors of the Anthropocene. The phenomenon of keystone actors represents an increasingly important feature of the human-dominated world. Sustainable leadership by keystone actors could result in cascading effects throughout the entire seafood industry and enable a critical transition towards improved management of marine living resources and ecosystems. PMID:26017777

  1. Spatial patterns and predictors of trophic control in marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Boyce, Daniel G; Frank, Kenneth T; Worm, Boris; Leggett, William C

    2015-10-01

    A key question in ecology is under which conditions ecosystem structure tends to be controlled by resource availability vs. consumer pressure. Several hypotheses derived from theory, experiments and observational field studies have been advanced, yet a unified explanation remains elusive. Here, we identify common predictors of trophic control in a synthetic analysis of 52 observational field studies conducted within marine ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere and published between 1951 and 2014. Spatial regression analysis of 45 candidate variables revealed temperature to be the dominant predictor, with unimodal effects on trophic control operating both directly (r(2) = 0.32; P < 0.0001) and indirectly through influences on turnover rate and quality of primary production, biodiversity and omnivory. These findings indicate that temperature is an overarching determinant of the trophic dynamics of marine ecosystems, and that variation in ocean temperature will affect the trophic structure of marine ecosystems through both direct and indirect mechanisms. PMID:26252155

  2. Use of regional climate models in climate based ecosystem studies

    SciTech Connect

    Hostetler, S.

    1995-09-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) use horizontal grid spacings on the order of tens of kilometers and thus are able to simulate the climate of a limited area at resolutions much higher than can be attained by general circulation models (horizontal scales of several degrees of hundreds of kilometers). The fine mesh of RCMs allows regional scale features that exert forcings on climate (e.g., lakes, mountains, coastlines) to be resolved. As a result, RCM simulations begin to reflect the heterogeneity of climate that supports the spatially diverse distribution of ecosystems in western North American. Examples of model simulations and comparisons with reconstructions of vegetation during the last glacial maximum (21 K CAL) will be presented.

  3. Shifting seasons, climate change and ecosystem consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thackeray, Stephen; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah; Huntingford, Chris; Bell, James; Leech, David; Wanless, Sarah

    2014-05-01

    In recent decades, the seasonal timing of many biological events (e.g. flowering, breeding, migration) has shifted. These phenological changes are believed to be one of the most conspicuous biological indicators of climate change. Rates and directions of phenological change have differed markedly among species, potentially threatening the seasonal synchrony of key species interactions and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Differences in phenological change among-species at different trophic levels, and with respect to other broad species traits, are likely to be driven by variations in the climatic sensitivity of phenological events. However, as yet, inconsistencies in analytical methods have hampered broad-scale assessments of variation in climate sensitivity among taxonomic and functional groups of organisms. In this presentation, results will be presented from a current collaborative project (http://www.ceh.ac.uk/sci_programmes/shifting-seasons-uk.html) in which many UK long-term data sets are being integrated in order to assess relationships between temperature/precipitation, and the timing of seasonal events for a wide range of plants and animals. Our aim is to assess which organism groups (in which locations/habitats) are most sensitive to climate. Furthermore, the role of anthropogenic climate change as a driver of phenological change is being assessed.

  4. Modeling the impact of watershed management policies on marine ecosystem services with application to Hood Canal, WA, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutherland, D. A.; Kim, C.; Marsik, M.; Spiridonov, G.; Toft, J.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Guerry, A.; Plummer, M.

    2011-12-01

    Humans obtain numerous benefits from marine ecosystems, including fish to eat; mitigation of storm damage; nutrient and water cycling and primary production; and cultural, aesthetic and recreational values. However, managing these benefits, or ecosystem services, in the marine world relies on an integrated approach that accounts for both marine and watershed activities. Here we present the results of a set of simple, physically-based, and spatially-explicit models that quantify the effects of terrestrial activities on marine ecosystem services. Specifically, we model the circulation and water quality of Hood Canal, WA, USA, a fjord system in Puget Sound where multiple human uses of the nearshore ecosystem (e.g., shellfish aquaculture, recreational Dungeness crab and shellfish harvest) can be compromised when water quality is poor (e.g., hypoxia, excessive non-point source pollution). Linked to the estuarine water quality model is a terrestrial hydrology model that simulates streamflow and nutrient loading, so land cover and climate changes in watersheds can be reflected in the marine environment. In addition, a shellfish aquaculture model is linked to the water quality model to test the sensitivity of the ecosystem service and its value to both terrestrial and marine activities. The modeling framework is general and will be publicly available, allowing easy comparisons of watershed impacts on marine ecosystem services across multiple scales and regions.

  5. Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against extreme climate events, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Although early results suggested that biodiversity might provide both resistance and resilience (sensu rapid recovery) of ecosystem productivity to drought, ...

  6. Microbial Dysbiosis: Rethinking Disease in Marine Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Egan, Suhelen; Gardiner, Melissa

    2016-01-01

    With growing environmental pressures placed on our marine habitats there is concern that the prevalence and severity of diseases affecting marine organisms will increase. Yet relative to terrestrial systems, we know little about the underlying causes of many of these diseases. Moreover, factors such as saprophytic colonizers and a lack of baseline data on healthy individuals make it difficult to accurately assess the role of specific microbial pathogens in disease states. Emerging evidence in the field of medicine suggests that a growing number of human diseases result from a microbiome imbalance (or dysbiosis), questioning the traditional view of a singular pathogenic agent. Here we discuss the possibility that many diseases seen in marine systems are, similarly, the result of microbial dysbiosis and the rise of opportunistic or polymicrobial infections. Thus, understanding and managing disease in the future will require us to also rethink definitions of disease and pathogenesis for marine systems. We suggest that a targeted, multidisciplinary approach that addresses the questions of microbial symbiosis in both healthy and diseased states, and at that the level of the holobiont, will be key to progress in this area. PMID:27446031

  7. Global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book is based on a symposium held in May 1990, sponsored by NASA, US EPA, and the North American Benthological Society. It focuses on the potential interactions between climate change and freshwater ecosystems. The assumption of global warming 2-5 degrees occurring in the next century was presented to the authors by the editors, and each author was asked to comment on how this warming might affect their particular system or process of interest. The book deals primarily with streams in the USA. Other chapters deal with the following topics: mechanisms driving global climate change; remote sensing; wetlands; lakes; general issues related to water resources and regional studies as they apply to flowing water.

  8. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future. PMID:23789087

  9. Bridging marine ecosystem and biogeochemistry research: Lessons and recommendations from comparative studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salihoglu, B.; Neuer, S.; Painting, S.; Murtugudde, R.; Hofmann, E. E.; Steele, J. H.; Hood, R. R.; Legendre, L.; Lomas, M. W.; Wiggert, J. D.; Ito, S.; Lachkar, Z.; Hunt, G. L.; Drinkwater, K. F.; Sabine, C. L.

    2013-01-01

    There is growing interest in linking marine biogeochemistry with marine ecosystems research in response to the increasing need to understand and predict the effect of global change on the marine ecosystem. Such a holistic approach combines oceanographic and biogeochemical processes and information on organisms, ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-levels. Comparative studies offer a means to improve understanding of critical mechanisms that influence marine systems by showing differences in ecosystem response to changing ocean conditions. Comparing similar biomes that differ in a particular set of physical or biological characteristics can provide insight into the susceptibility of the key features of a system to perturbation. Also, comparative studies based on long-term observations at fixed time-series stations enable the evaluation of long-term changes in the physical and biological environment, such as those driven by climate patterns. Moreover, the comparative approach provides a feasible alternative to costly and complex research programs designed to provide detailed end-to-end evaluations of marine systems. Planned and unplanned perturbations allow the investigation of the sensitivity of ecosystems and their biogeochemical processes to change at different time and space scales. In well-studied regions where sufficient data are available, models can provide comprehensive syntheses, mechanistic insights and even predictions. We present examples of successful comparative studies that incorporate both biogeochemical and ecosystems aspects. A framework for a basic approach for comparative studies is proposed that considers the interactions between biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems. This approach is based on constructing a minimalistic observational framework grounded within a conceptual model.

  10. Comparing marine and terrestrial ecosystems: Implications for the design of coastal marine reserves

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carr, M.H.; Neigel, J.E.; Estes, J.A.; Andelman, S.; Warner, R.R.; Largier, J. L.

    2003-01-01

    Concepts and theory for the design and application of terrestrial reserves is based on our understanding of environmental, ecological, and evolutionary processes responsible for biological diversity and sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems and how humans have influenced these processes. How well this terrestrial-based theory can be applied toward the design and application of reserves in the coastal marine environment depends, in part, on the degree of similarity between these systems. Several marked differences in ecological and evolutionary processes exist between marine and terrestrial ecosystems as ramifications of fundamental differences in their physical environments (i.e., the relative prevalence of air and water) and contemporary patterns of human impacts. Most notably, the great extent and rate of dispersal of nutrients, materials, holoplanktonic organisms, and reproductive propagules of benthic organisms expand scales of connectivity among near-shore communities and ecosystems. Consequently, the "openness" of marine populations, communities, and ecosystems probably has marked influences on their spatial, genetic, and trophic structures and dynamics in ways experienced by only some terrestrial species. Such differences appear to be particularly significant for the kinds of organisms most exploited and targeted for protection in coastal marine ecosystems (fishes and macroinvertebrates). These and other differences imply some unique design criteria and application of reserves in the marine environment. In explaining the implications of these differences for marine reserve design and application, we identify many of the environmental and ecological processes and design criteria necessary for consideration in the development of the analytical approaches developed elsewhere in this Special Issue.

  11. The effects of pollution on marine ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    The long-term program for pollution monitoring and research in the mediterranean sea (MED POL--PHASE II), which is the scientific/technical component of the mediterranean action plan, is basically divided into two groups of activities, namely monitoring and research. The research component is divided into twelve topics one of which is concerned with the ecosystem modifications in areas influenced by pollutants.

  12. Squid as nutrient vectors linking Southwest Atlantic marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arkhipkin, Alexander I.

    2013-10-01

    Long-term investigations of three abundant nektonic squid species from the Southwest Atlantic, Illex argentinus, Doryteuthis gahi and Onykia ingens, permitted to estimate important population parameters including individual growth rates, duration of ontogenetic phases and mortalities. Using production model, the productivity of squid populations at different phases of their life cycle was assessed and the amount of biomass they convey between marine ecosystems as a result of their ontogenetic migrations was quantified. It was found that squid are major nutrient vectors and play a key role as transient 'biological pumps' linking spatially distinct marine ecosystems. I. argentinus has the largest impact in all three ecosystems it encounters due to its high abundance and productivity. The variable nature of squid populations increases the vulnerability of these biological conveyers to overfishing and environmental change. Failure of these critical biological pathways may induce irreversible long-term consequences for biodiversity, resource abundance and spatial availability in the world ocean.

  13. Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of marine ecosystem drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Rodgers, K. B.; Stock, C. A.; Cheung, W. W. L.

    2015-12-01

    Marine ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced climate change affecting their physical and biogeochemical environment. At present, future projections of marine ecosystem drivers are inherently uncertain, complicating assessments of climate change impacts. Here we evaluate the relative importance of specific sources of uncertainties in projections of marine ecosystem drivers (warming, acidification, nutrient availability and declining oxygen levels) as a function of prediction lead-time and spatial scales. We show that the uncertainty in century-scale global and regional surface pH projections is dominated by scenario uncertainty, highlighting the critical importance of policy decisions on carbon emissions. In contrast, uncertainty in century-scale sea surface temperature projections in polar regions, oxygen levels in low oxygen waters, and regional nutrient availability is dominated by model uncertainty, underscoring that overcoming deficiencies in scientific understanding and improved process representation in Earth system models are critical for making more robust predictions. For smaller spatial and temporal scales, uncertainty associated with internal variability also constitutes an important source of uncertainty, suggesting irreducible uncertainty inherent in these projections. We also show that changes in the combined multiple ecosystem drivers emerges from the noise in 44% of the ocean in the next decade and in 57% of the ocean by the end of the century following a high carbon emissions scenario. Changes in pH and sea surface temperature can be reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive carbon emissions mitigation, but only marginally for oxygen and net primary productivity. The broader scientific implications, including downscaling of Earth system model output for large marine ecosystem regions and for impact assessment models, will also be discussed.

  14. Ecosystem productivity is associated with bacterial phylogenetic distance in surface marine waters.

    PubMed

    Galand, Pierre E; Salter, Ian; Kalenitchenko, Dimitri

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the link between community diversity and ecosystem function is a fundamental aspect of ecology. Systematic losses in biodiversity are widely acknowledged but the impact this may exert on ecosystem functioning remains ambiguous. There is growing evidence of a positive relationship between species richness and ecosystem productivity for terrestrial macro-organisms, but similar links for marine micro-organisms, which help drive global climate, are unclear. Community manipulation experiments show both positive and negative relationships for microbes. These previous studies rely, however, on artificial communities and any links between the full diversity of active bacterial communities in the environment, their phylogenetic relatedness and ecosystem function remain hitherto unexplored. Here, we test the hypothesis that productivity is associated with diversity in the metabolically active fraction of microbial communities. We show in natural assemblages of active bacteria that communities containing more distantly related members were associated with higher bacterial production. The positive phylogenetic diversity-productivity relationship was independent of community diversity calculated as the Shannon index. From our long-term (7-year) survey of surface marine bacterial communities, we also found that similarly, productive communities had greater phylogenetic similarity to each other, further suggesting that the traits of active bacteria are an important predictor of ecosystem productivity. Our findings demonstrate that the evolutionary history of the active fraction of a microbial community is critical for understanding their role in ecosystem functioning. PMID:26289961

  15. Climate change, marine environments, and the US Endangered species act.

    PubMed

    Seney, Erin E; Rowland, Melanie J; Lowery, Ruth Ann; Griffis, Roger B; McClure, Michelle M

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to be a top driver of global biodiversity loss in the 21st century. It poses new challenges to conserving and managing imperiled species, particularly in marine and estuarine ecosystems. The use of climate-related science in statutorily driven species management, such as under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), is in its early stages. This article provides an overview of ESA processes, with emphasis on the mandate to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage listed marine, estuarine, and anadromous species. Although the ESA is specific to the United States, its requirements are broadly relevant to conservation planning. Under the ESA, species, subspecies, and "distinct population segments" may be listed as either endangered or threatened, and taking of most listed species (harassing, harming, pursuing, wounding, killing, or capturing) is prohibited unless specifically authorized via a case-by-case permit process. Government agencies, in addition to avoiding take, must ensure that actions they fund, authorize, or conduct are not likely to jeopardize a listed species' continued existence or adversely affect designated critical habitat. Decisions for which climate change is likely to be a key factor include: determining whether a species should be listed under the ESA, designating critical habitat areas, developing species recovery plans, and predicting whether effects of proposed human activities will be compatible with ESA-listed species' survival and recovery. Scientific analyses that underlie these critical conservation decisions include risk assessment, long-term recovery planning, defining environmental baselines, predicting distribution, and defining appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Although specific guidance is still evolving, it is clear that the unprecedented changes in global ecosystems brought about by climate change necessitate new information and approaches to conservation of imperiled species. El

  16. Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

    PubMed

    Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T; Mori, Akira S; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A; Polley, H Wayne; Reich, Peter B; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W; Smith, Melinda D; Thakur, Madhav P; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F; van der Putten, Wim H; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2015-10-22

    It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events. PMID:26466564

  17. Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T. Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Mori, Akira S.; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Reich, Peter B.; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W.; Smith, Melinda D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F.; van der Putten, Wim H.; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2015-10-01

    It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

  18. Organization of marine phenology data in support of planning and conservation in ocean and coastal ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Fornwall, Mark D.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Griffis, R.B.

    2014-01-01

    Among the many effects of climate change is its influence on the phenology of biota. In marine and coastal ecosystems, phenological shifts have been documented for multiple life forms; however, biological data related to marine species' phenology remain difficult to access and is under-used. We conducted an assessment of potential sources of biological data for marine species and their availability for use in phenological analyses and assessments. Our evaluations showed that data potentially related to understanding marine species' phenology are available through online resources of governmental, academic, and non-governmental organizations, but appropriate datasets are often difficult to discover and access, presenting opportunities for scientific infrastructure improvement. The developing Federal Marine Data Architecture when fully implemented will improve data flow and standardization for marine data within major federal repositories and provide an archival repository for collaborating academic and public data contributors. Another opportunity, largely untapped, is the engagement of citizen scientists in standardized collection of marine phenology data and contribution of these data to established data flows. Use of metadata with marine phenology related keywords could improve discovery and access to appropriate datasets. When data originators choose to self-publish, publication of research datasets with a digital object identifier, linked to metadata, will also improve subsequent discovery and access. Phenological changes in the marine environment will affect human economics, food systems, and recreation. No one source of data will be sufficient to understand these changes. The collective attention of marine data collectors is needed—whether with an agency, an educational institution, or a citizen scientist group—toward adopting the data management processes and standards needed to ensure availability of sufficient and useable marine data to understand

  19. Eutrophication of freshwater and marine ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Val H.; Joye, Samantha B.; Howarth, Robert W.

    2006-01-01

    Initial understanding of the links between nutrients and aquatic productivity originated in Europe in the early 1900s, and our knowledge base has expanded greatly during the past 40 yr. This explosion of eutrophication-related research has made it unequivocally clear that a comprehensive strategy to prevent excessive amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus from entering our waterways is needed to protect our lakes, rivers, and coasts from water quality deterioration. However, despite these very significant advances, cultural eutrophication remains one of the foremost problems for protecting our valuable surface water resources. The papers in this special issue provide a valuable cross section and synthesis of our current understanding of both freshwater and marine eutrophication science. They also serve to identify gaps in our knowledge and will help to guide future research.

  20. Marine Chemical Ecology: Chemical Signals and Cues Structure Marine Populations, Communities, and Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Mark E.

    2012-01-01

    Chemical cues constitute much of the language of life in the sea. Our understanding of biotic interactions and their effects on marine ecosystems will advance more rapidly if this language is studied and understood. Here, I review how chemical cues regulate critical aspects of the behavior of marine organisms from bacteria to phytoplankton to benthic invertebrates and water column fishes. These chemically mediated interactions strongly affect population structure, community organization, and ecosystem function. Chemical cues determine foraging strategies, feeding choices, commensal associations, selection of mates and habitats, competitive interactions, and transfer of energy and nutrients within and among ecosystems. In numerous cases, the indirect effects of chemical signals on behavior have as much or more effect on community structure and function as the direct effects of consumers and pathogens. Chemical cues are critical for understanding marine systems, but their omnipresence and impact are inadequately recognized. PMID:21141035

  1. Marine Chemical Ecology: Chemical Signals and Cues Structure Marine Populations, Communities, and Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, Mark E.

    2009-01-01

    Chemical cues constitute much of the language of life in the sea. Our understanding of biotic interactions and their effects on marine ecosystems will advance more rapidly if this language is studied and understood. Here, I review how chemical cues regulate critical aspects of the behavior of marine organisms from bacteria to phytoplankton to benthic invertebrates and water column fishes. These chemically mediated interactions strongly affect population structure, community organization, and ecosystem function. Chemical cues determine foraging strategies, feeding choices, commensal associations, selection of mates and habitats, competitive interactions, and transfer of energy and nutrients within and among ecosystems. In numerous cases, the indirect effects of chemical signals on behavior have as much or more effect on community structure and function as the direct effects of consumers and pathogens. Chemical cues are critical for understanding marine systems, but their omnipresence and impact are inadequately recognized.

  2. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Kröel-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus; De Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Estiarte, Marc; Garadnai, János; Kongstad, Jane; Kovács-Láng, Edit; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Liberati, Dario; Ogaya, Romà; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Smith, Andrew R; Sowerby, Alwyn; Tietema, Albert; Penuelas, Josep

    2015-01-01

    Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change. PMID:25801187

  3. Modelling marine ecosystems as a discipline in Earth Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nihoul, Jacques C. J.

    1998-07-01

    Faced with the imperatives of sustainable development, Earth Science must open to the study of ecosystems and their interactions with a multiscale geophysical environment. The indispensable development of interdisciplinary Earth Science models requires that the crafts and skills of physicists, chemists and biologists merge and cross-fertilize, with often a long way to go for each discipline to win over the others. This paper contains the reflections, queries and suggestions of a marine hydrodynamicist trying to develop coupled physical, chemical and biological marine models and negotiating admittance in the Biogeochemistry Club.

  4. Testing paradigms of ecosystem change under climate warming in Antarctica.

    PubMed

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Constable, Andrew; Wotherspoon, Simon; Raymond, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations-or "paradigms of change"-that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth's most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. PMID:23405116

  5. Quantifying the Climate Regulation Values of Ecosystems Globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; DeLucia, E. H.; Snyder, P. K.; LeBauer, D.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in the climate system, regulating climate through both biogeochemical (greenhouse-gas regulation) and biophysical (regulation of water and energy) mechanisms. However, initiatives aimed at climate protection through land management account only for biogeochemical mechanisms. By ignoring biophysical processes, these initiatives risk promoting suboptimal solutions. Our recently proposed metric for the climate regulation value (CRV) of ecosystems provides one potential approach to quantifying how biogeochemical and biophysical effects combine to determine the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. In order to provide broadly accessible estimates of CRV for ecosystems worldwide, we have created an online ecosystem climate regulation services calculator with global coverage. The CRV calculator incorporates global maps of climatically significant ecosystem properties (for example, biomass, soil carbon, and evapotranspiration) to provide location-specific CRV estimates. We use this calculator to derive values for forests globally, revealing that CRV commonly differs meaningfully from values derived based purely on carbon storage. In the face of increasing land-use pressures and the increasingly urgent need for climate change mitigation, the CRV calculator has the potential to facilitate improved quantification of ecosystem climate regulation services by scientists, conservationists, policy makers, and the private sector.

  6. Merging Marine Ecosystem Models and Genomics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coles, V.; Hood, R. R.; Stukel, M. R.; Moran, M. A.; Paul, J. H.; Satinsky, B.; Zielinski, B.; Yager, P. L.

    2015-12-01

    oceanography. One of the grand challenges of oceanography is to develop model techniques to more effectively incorporate genomic information. As one approach, we developed an ecosystem model whose community is determined by randomly assigning functional genes to build each organism's "DNA". Microbes are assigned a size that sets their baseline environmental responses using allometric response cuves. These responses are modified by the costs and benefits conferred by each gene in an organism's genome. The microbes are embedded in a general circulation model where environmental conditions shape the emergent population. This model is used to explore whether organisms constructed from randomized combinations of metabolic capability alone can self-organize to create realistic oceanic biogeochemical gradients. Realistic community size spectra and chlorophyll-a concentrations emerge in the model. The model is run repeatedly with randomly-generated microbial communities and each time realistic gradients in community size spectra, chlorophyll-a, and forms of nitrogen develop. This supports the hypothesis that the metabolic potential of a community rather than the realized species composition is the primary factor setting vertical and horizontal environmental gradients. Vertical distributions of nitrogen and transcripts for genes involved in nitrification are broadly consistent with observations. Modeled gene and transcript abundance for nitrogen cycling and processing of land-derived organic material match observations along the extreme gradients in the Amazon River plume, and they help to explain the factors controlling observed variability.

  7. Human activities change marine ecosystems by altering predation risk.

    PubMed

    Madin, Elizabeth M P; Dill, Lawrence M; Ridlon, April D; Heithaus, Michael R; Warner, Robert R

    2016-01-01

    In ocean ecosystems, many of the changes in predation risk - both increases and decreases - are human-induced. These changes are occurring at scales ranging from global to local and across variable temporal scales. Indirect, risk-based effects of human activity are known to be important in structuring some terrestrial ecosystems, but these impacts have largely been neglected in oceans. Here, we synthesize existing literature and data to explore multiple lines of evidence that collectively suggest diverse human activities are changing marine ecosystems, including carbon storage capacity, in myriad ways by altering predation risk. We provide novel, compelling evidence that at least one key human activity, overfishing, can lead to distinct, cascading risk effects in natural ecosystems whose magnitude exceeds that of presumed lethal effects and may account for previously unexplained findings. We further discuss the conservation implications of human-caused indirect risk effects. Finally, we provide a predictive framework for when human alterations of risk in oceans should lead to cascading effects and outline a prospectus for future research. Given the speed and extent with which human activities are altering marine risk landscapes, it is crucial that conservation and management policy considers the indirect effects of these activities in order to increase the likelihood of success and avoid unfortunate surprises. PMID:26448058

  8. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  9. Coastal Ecosystems and Climate Change: Is Modeling and Monitoring Enough?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronin, T. M.; Walker, H. A.

    2005-05-01

    Many coastal ecosystems are severely degraded due to a variety of human factors, requiring large and expensive monitoring and modeling efforts for restoration and management. Climate variability, including abrupt climate change, is seldom factored into coastal ecosystem management despite growing evidence for climate forcing of precipitation, river discharge, water quality, salinity, turbidity, faunal and phytoplankton dynamics, dissolved oxygen, and other ecosystem processes. We will review evidence from long-term monitoring records, multi-proxy paleoclimatic and paleoecological records, and climatic modeling that suggests that the effects of climate can override local and regional human activities and may potentially diminish the success of restoration efforts. Because ecosystem restoration often involves long-term objectives requiring decades to achieve, our focus will be on examples from sub-tropical and temperate estuaries in North America that show ecosystem response over decadal timescales to variability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic variability evident from paleo-records of the past few centuries exceeds that recorded in most 20th century monitoring records. This raises issues about the efficacy of local and regional ecosystem and hydrodynamic models designed to simulate ecosystem response to anthropogenic changes in sediment and nutrient input, fresh-water discharge, and land-use because such models, though tested with rigorous validation procedures, use calibration data sets limited to a few years. Thus, they might not be appropriate for simulating response to climatic extremes on the scale and duration of past events outside their calibration range. Understanding the complexities of ecosystem response to climatic forcing, especially in the context of local and regional ecosystem disturbance, raises formidable challenges, but attempts to integrate climate

  10. Evaluation of ecosystem services for good balance between climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, A.; Adachi, M.; Yamagata, Y.; Suzuki, R.; Saigusa, N.; Sekine, H.

    2011-12-01

    For appropriate decision making in ecosystem management for global warming prevention and biodiversity conservation, a reliable and practical method to evaluate ecosystem services is necessary. For this purpose, we are conducting a project focusing on the evaluation of ecosystem services with a financial support from the Ministry of Environment, Japan, during the period from 2011 to 2013. The project is titled "Development of a method for evaluation of ecosystem services aiming at trade-off mitigation between climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation" (Environmental Research Fund, No. F-1101) and jointly conducted through collaboration among: the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the Japan-Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, and Mitsubishi Research Institute. The objectives of the project include: (1) integration of observational data from field sites and satellites related to ecosystem functions, (2) development of a practical evaluation method of ecosystem services, and (3) contribution to mitigate conflicts between environmental mitigation options such as climate change prevention and biodiversity conservation. In this project, we have a couple of candidate sites in Asian region to conduct field studies including in situ observation of forest biomass, leaf area index, canopy structure, in conjunction with corresponding satellite observations. These data on functional traits will be related with important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and climate regulation, water supply, and genetic resource stemming from biodiversity.

  11. Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Emer; O' Riordan, Ruth M; Culloty, Sarah C

    2013-03-01

    Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010-mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment. PMID:23532482

  12. Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Emer; O' Riordan, Ruth M; Culloty, Sarah C

    2013-01-01

    Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010–mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment. PMID:23532482

  13. The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

    2015-01-01

    Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

  14. Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; John, J.; Le Quéré, C.; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Seferian, R.; Totterdell, I.; Vichi, M.; Völker, C.

    2015-02-01

    Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between -25 and +40%. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012-2031 average and the 2081-2100 average is up to 3 mol C m-2 yr-1. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also

  15. Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; John, J.; Le Quéré, C.; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Seferian, R.; Totterdell, I.; Vichi, M.; Völker, C.

    2015-12-01

    Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon-climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between -25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve

  16. Resilience and stability of a pelagic marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Checkley, David M; Ohman, Mark D; Koslow, J Anthony; Goericke, Ralf

    2016-01-13

    The accelerating loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide has accentuated a long-standing debate on the role of diversity in stabilizing ecological communities and has given rise to a field of research on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Although broad consensus has been reached regarding the positive BEF relationship, a number of important challenges remain unanswered. These primarily concern the underlying mechanisms by which diversity increases resilience and community stability, particularly the relative importance of statistical averaging and functional complementarity. Our understanding of these mechanisms relies heavily on theoretical and experimental studies, yet the degree to which theory adequately explains the dynamics and stability of natural ecosystems is largely unknown, especially in marine ecosystems. Using modelling and a unique 60-year dataset covering multiple trophic levels, we show that the pronounced multi-decadal variability of the Southern California Current System (SCCS) does not represent fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning, but a linear response to key environmental drivers channelled through bottom-up and physical control. Furthermore, we show strong temporal asynchrony between key species or functional groups within multiple trophic levels caused by opposite responses to these drivers. We argue that functional complementarity is the primary mechanism reducing community variability and promoting resilience and stability in the SCCS. PMID:26763697

  17. Tool kit development to refine and visualize essential climate data and information for marine protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cecil, L.; Stachniewicz, J.; Shein, K. A.; Ansari, S.; Jarvis, C.

    2013-05-01

    Marine ecosystem responses to climate variability and change such as changing water temperature, water chemistry (e.g., pH, salinity), water level, or storminess may result in adverse impacts including mass mortality, loss of habitat, increased disease susceptibility, and trophic cascade feedbacks. Unfortunately, while marine ecosystem resource managers are aware of these threats, they often lack sufficient expertise with identifying, accessing and using the many large and complex climate data products that would inform ecosystem-scale climate impact assessments. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has been working with the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Ocean Climate Center to enhance and expand the functionality of NCDC's Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT) to begin to address this limitation. The WCT is a freely available, Java-based user interface (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/wct/) designed to access, analyze, and display a variety of NCDC's georeferenced climate data products (e.g., satellite data, radar, reanalysis datasets, in-situ observations). However, the WCT requires the user to have already identified a data set of interest and gained access to it. This can limit its utility by users who are not knowledgeable about which data sets are relevant to their needs and where those data sets can be found. The Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tools (IMPACT) prototype modification to the WCT addresses those requirements through an iterative process between climate scientists and resource managers. The WCT-IMPACT prototype couples a user query approach with a quasi-expert system that determines, retrieves, and loads the appropriate data products for visualization and analysis by the user. Relevant data products are identified based on the environmental variables in which ecosystem managers have indicated an importance to their ecosystems. To improve response time, the user, through the WCT-IMPACT interface, crops (or subsets) the

  18. Perceptions of Rule-Breaking Related to Marine Ecosystem Health

    PubMed Central

    Slater, Matthew J.; Mgaya, Yunus D.; Stead, Selina M.

    2014-01-01

    Finding effective solutions to manage marine resources is high on political and conservation agendas worldwide. This is made more urgent by the rate of increase in the human population and concomitant resource pressures in coastal areas. This paper links empirical socio-economic data about perceptions of marine resource health to the breaking of marine management rules, using fisheries as a case study. The relationship between perceived rule-breaking (non-compliance with regulations controlling fishing) and perceived health of inshore marine environments was investigated through face-to-face interviews with 299 heads of households in three Tanzanian coastal communities in November and December 2011. Awareness of rules controlling fishing activity was high among all respondents. Fishers were able to describe more specific rules controlling fishing practices than non-fishers (t = 3.5, df = 297, p<0.01). Perceived breaking of fishing regulations was reported by nearly half of all respondents, saying “some” (32% of responses) or “most” (15% of responses) people break fishing rules. Ordinal regression modelling revealed a significant linkage (z = −3.44, p<0.001) in the relationship between respondents' perceptions of deteriorating marine health and their perception of increased rule-breaking. In this paper, inferences from an empirical study are used to identify and argue the potential for using perceptions of ecosystem health and level of rule-breaking as a means to guide management measures. When considering different management options (e.g. Marine Protected Areas), policy makers are advised to take account of and utilise likely egoistic or altruistic decision-making factors used by fishers to determine their marine activities. PMID:24586558

  19. The role of large marine vertebrates in the assessment of the quality of pelagic marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Fossi, Maria Cristina; Casini, Silvia; Caliani, Ilaria; Panti, Cristina; Marsili, Letizia; Viarengo, Aldo; Giangreco, Roberto; Notarbartolo di Sciara, Giuseppe; Serena, Fabrizio; Ouerghi, Atef; Depledge, Michael H

    2012-06-01

    The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy has been developed and is being implemented, with the objective to deliver "Good Environmental Status" by 2020. A pragmatic way forward has been achieved through the development of 11 "qualitative descriptors". In an attempt to identify gaps in MSFD, regarding the data on large marine vertebrates, the SETAC--Italian Branch organised a workshop in Siena (IT). Particular attention was paid to the qualitative descriptors 8 (contaminants and pollution effects) and 10 (marine litter). The specific remit was to discuss the potential use of large marine vertebrates (from large pelagic fish, sea turtles, sea birds and cetaceans) in determining the environmental status of pelagic marine ecosystems. During the workshop it emerged that large pelagic fish may be especially useful for monitoring short- to medium-term changes in pelagic ecosystems, while cetaceans provided a more integrated view over the long-term. A theme that strongly emerged was the broad recognition that biomarkers offer real potential for the determination of good ecological status detecting the "undesirable biological effects" (indicator for descriptor 8). PMID:22494853

  20. Sensitivity and Thresholds of Ecosystems to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Peteet, D. M.

    2001-12-01

    Rapid vegetational change is a hallmark of past abrupt climate change, as evidenced from Younger Dryas records in Europe, eastern North America, and the Pacific North American rim. The potential response of future ecosystems to abrupt climate change is targeted, with a focus on particular changes in the hydrological cycle. The vulnerability of ecosystems is notable when particular shifts cross thresholds of precipitation and temperature, as many plants and animals are adapted to specific climatic "windows". Significant forest species compositional changes occur at ecotonal boundaries, which are often the first locations to record a climatic response. Historical forest declines have been linked to stress, and even Pleistocene extinctions have been associated with human interaction at times of rapid climatic shifts. Environmental extremes are risky for reproductive stages, and result in nonlinearities. The role of humans in association with abrupt climate change suggests that many ecosystems may cross thresholds from which they will find it difficult to recover. Sectors particularly vulnerable will be reviewed.

  1. Biomass yields and geography of large marine ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, K.; Alexander, L.M.

    1989-01-01

    Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) regions with unique hydrographic regimes, submarine topography, productivity, and trophically dependent populations. Over the past several decades, some populations of organisms within LMEs have increased and others declined amidst a background of natural environmental perturbation, disposal of urban wastes, aerosol contamination, spills of petrogenic hydrocarbons, overexploitation of fisheries resources, and growing evidence of global changes in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone. The paper presented at the symposium, with appropriate revision based on peer- review, are given in this volume. Participants were encouraged to synthesize scattered information on biological, physical, and chemical processes affecting decadal fluctuations in biomass yields for LMEs including the Huanghai (Yellow) Sea, Kuroshio Current, Oyashio Current, Gulf of Thailand, and the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem around the Pacific basin, and for the Barents Sea, Gulf of Mexico, the Iberian coastal and Benguela Current ecosystems around the margins of the Atlantic. Participants also provided the results of studies of the geographic extent and boundaries of LMEs and the legal basis for the management of marine resources within LMEs.

  2. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience.

    PubMed

    Moore, Sue E; Huntington, Henry P

    2008-03-01

    Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential managemen...

  4. Climate Forced Alpine Tundra Ecosystem Dynamics: A Model Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarosch, A. H.; Clarke, G. K.; Danby, R. K.; Hik, D. S.

    2007-12-01

    Insights concerning the future evolution of alpine ecosystems depend on understanding and simulating their response to climate change. Comprehensive studies of these regions require novel spatio-temporal computational models of climate-forced landscape/ecosystem interactions. As part of the International Polar Year (IPY) we are examining alpine tundra landscapes and ecosystems in the Kluane region of southwest Yukon, Canada. Based on the combination of long-term geophysical and ecological field studies and driven by different climate change scenarios, such a model is being used to explore the range of possible future scenarios for the region. As the first step in building such a complex model, we present a simplified, grid-based model to demonstrate potential changes in plant community distribution driven by key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. A linear orographic precipitation model is used to downscale climate data which, in combination with a digital elevation model, forms the geophysical input for the model. Simplified ecological rules describing the potential state transition of different plant communities and land cover types are incorporated in the model in a cellular automation fashion. The response of the ecosystem to several different climate scenarios will be presented, including a set of North American Regional Reanalysis climate data. This simplified model is used to demonstrate the potential of such interdisciplinary simulations to gain deeper understanding of ecosystem evolution with climate change.

  5. Regional climate change, ecosystem responses, and climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Benjamin Issac

    2007-12-01

    I use empirical/statistical models and physically based general circulation models to assess the capacity for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to influence terrestrial ecosystems, and the potential for those ecosystems to feedback to the climate system. AO warming leads to modest reductions in Eurasian carbon stocks; ˜17 Pg carbon are lost to the atmosphere, primarily from increased soil decomposition. Precipitation reductions in southern Africa associated with increased frequency of El Nino events lead to a reduction in tree cover and expansion of grasslands in the north and a reduction in grass cover in drier areas. Here half the carbon cycle changes are driven by the loss of tree cover, leading to a net loss of ˜5 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. Over southern Africa, positive soil moisture anomalies lead to reduced precipitation through enhanced subsidence and reduced moisture convergence. Higher snow cover alone in Eurasia leads to minor albedo increases and moderate localized cooling (3°-5°C), mostly at very high latitudes (>70°N) and during the spring season. When vegetation is allowed to interact, increased snow cover leads to southward retreat of boreal vegetation, widespread cooling, and persistent snow cover over much of the boreal region during the boreal summer, with cold anomalies of up to 15°C. In southern Africa, the feedback experiments suggest a negative feedback between soil moisture and precipitation over the same area, implying this region may be resistant to externally forced changes in precipitation. In Eurasia, a persistent high phase of the AO leads to winter warming, but the feedback response is complicated. Warming during this season has been associated with increased snowfall, which could increase snow cover and albedo, countering the AO warming. Conversely, increased temperatures could lead to increased snow melting and decreased albedo, amplifying the AO warming.

  6. Regularity underlies erratic population abundances in marine ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Jie; Cornelius, Sean P.; Janssen, John; Gray, Kimberly A.; Motter, Adilson E.

    2015-01-01

    The abundance of a species' population in an ecosystem is rarely stationary, often exhibiting large fluctuations over time. Using historical data on marine species, we show that the year-to-year fluctuations of population growth rate obey a well-defined double-exponential (Laplace) distribution. This striking regularity allows us to devise a stochastic model despite seemingly irregular variations in population abundances. The model identifies the effect of reduced growth at low population density as a key factor missed in current approaches of population variability analysis and without which extinction risks are severely underestimated. The model also allows us to separate the effect of demographic stochasticity and show that single-species growth rates are dominantly determined by stochasticity common to all species. This dominance—and the implications it has for interspecies correlations, including co-extinctions—emphasizes the need for ecosystem-level management approaches to reduce the extinction risk of the individual species themselves. PMID:25972438

  7. The Large Marine Ecosystem Approach for 21st Century Ocean Health and International Sustainable Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honey, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The global coastal ocean and watersheds are divided into 66 Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which encompass regions from river basins, estuaries, and coasts to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and margins of major currents. Approximately 80% of global fisheries catch comes from LME waters. Ecosystem goods and services from LMEs contribute an estimated US 18-25 trillion dollars annually to the global economy in market and non-market value. The critical importance of these large-scale systems, however, is threatened by human populations and pressures, including climate change. Fortunately, there is pragmatic reason for optimism. Interdisciplinary frameworks exist, such as the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) approach for adaptive management that can integrate both nature-centric and human-centric views into ecosystem monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management practices for long-term sustainability. Originally proposed almost 30 years ago, the LME approach rests on five modules are: (i) productivity, (ii) fish and fisheries, (iii) pollution and ecosystem health, (iv) socioeconomics, and (v) governance for iterative adaptive management at a large, international scale of 200,000 km2 or greater. The Global Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank, and United Nations agencies recognize and support the LME approach—as evidenced by over 3.15 billion in financial assistance to date for LME projects. This year of 2014 is an exciting milestone in LME history, after 20 years of the United Nations and GEF organizations adopting LMEs as a unit for ecosystem-based approaches to management. The LME approach, however, is not perfect. Nor is it immutable. Similar to the adaptive management framework it propones, the LME approach itself must adapt to new and emerging 21st Century technologies, science, and realities. The LME approach must further consider socioeconomics and governance. Within the socioeconomics module alone, several trillion-dollar opportunities exist

  8. Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing

  9. RESTORING COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consensus exists that U.S. coastal ecosystems are severely degraded due to a variety of human-factors requiring large financial expenditures to restore and manage. Yet, even as controversy surrounds human factors in ecosystem degradation in the Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, an...

  10. Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Österblom, Henrik; Larsson, Per; Andersson, Agneta; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea. PMID:26022332

  11. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, D.B.; Peterson, D.L.; Hessl, A.E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  12. Marine ecosystem regime shifts: challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

    PubMed Central

    Levin, Phillip S.; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the globe. These phenomena can result in dramatic changes in the provision of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Accounting for regime shifts in management clearly requires integrative, ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches. EBM has emerged as an accepted paradigm for ocean management worldwide, yet, despite the rapid and intense development of EBM theory, implementation has languished, and many implemented or proposed EBM schemes largely ignore the special characteristics of regime shifts. Here, we first explore key aspects of regime shifts that are of critical importance to EBM, and then suggest how regime shifts can be better incorporated into EBM using the concept of integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). An IEA uses approaches that determine the likelihood that ecological or socio-economic properties of systems will move beyond or return to acceptable bounds as defined by resource managers and policy makers. We suggest an approach for implementing IEAs for cases of regime shifts where the objectives are either avoiding an undesired state or returning to a desired condition. We discuss the suitability and short-comings of methods summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies. IEAs are evolving as an EBM approach that can address regime shifts; however, advances in statistical, analytical and simulation modelling are needed before IEAs can robustly inform tactical management in systems characterized by regime shifts.

  13. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart, III; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  14. Committed ecosystem changes and contributions to climate recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, C. D.; Lowe, J. A.; Liddicoat, S. K.; Betts, R. A.

    2009-04-01

    Future climate change and the carbon cycle are tightly coupled. Many studies have now shown positive feedbacks which amplify climate change, reduce the natural uptake of carbon and influence global emissions pathways to stabilisation. On the timescale of 1 or 2 centuries, this feedback is mainly due to the terrestrial biosphere. Here we assess to what extent the biosphere contributes to recovery of CO2 levels after a cessation of carbon emissions. We find that when significant climate change has weakened natural terrestrial carbon sinks, these sinks do not recover after a stop of emissions and thus recovery of CO2 (and hence climate) is slow. Further, we find that the terrestrial biosphere exhibits significant inertia and can continue to respond to climate changes decades after stabilisation of climate. This has serious implications for definitions of dangerous climate change based simply on stabilisation temperature as the absence of significant biome changes at the time of stabilisation does not preclude significant and potentially detrimental changes in subsequent decades. Assessments of targets for stabilising climate change often consider the impacts of different levels of global warming. These assessments usually consider impacts that would occur at the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, global terrestrial ecosystems continue to respond over longer timescales. Here we introduce the concept of "committed ecosystem changes" analogous to climate warming commitments and committed sea-level rise due to thermal inertia. The true impact of climate change on ecosystems will not be revealed for many decades after stabilising temperatures. Further, we suggest that ecosystems may become committed to substantial damage long before any is observable. For example, significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia may become inevitable significantly below a global warming of 2K. When defining dangerous climate change, and forming policy to avoid it, such

  15. Seasonality in marine ecosystems: Peruvian seabirds, anchovy, and oceanographic conditions.

    PubMed

    Passuni, Giannina; Barbraud, Christophe; Chaigneau, Alexis; Demarcq, Hervé; Ledesma, Jesus; Bertrand, Arnaud; Castillo, Ramiro; Perea, Angel; Mori, Julio; Viblanc, Vincent A; Torres-MaitaA, Jose; Bertrand, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    In fluctuating environments, matching breeding timing to periods of high resource availability is crucial for the fitness of many vertebrate species, and may have major consequences on population health. Yet, our understanding of the proximate environmental cues driving seasonal breeding is limited. This is particularly the case in marine ecosystems, where key environmental factors and prey abundance and availability are seldom quantified. The Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is a highly productive, low-latitude ecosystem of moderate seasonality. In this ecosystem, three tropical seabird species (the Guanay Cormorant Phalacrocorax bougainvillii, the Peruvian Booby Sula variegata, and the Peruvian Pelican Pelecanus thagus) live in sympatry and prey almost exclusively on anchovy, Engraulis ringens. From January 2003 to December 2012, we monitored 31 breeding sites along the Peruvian coast to investigate the breeding cycle of these species. We tested for relationships between breeding timing, oceanographic conditions, and prey availability using occupancy models. We found that all three seabird species exhibited seasonal breeding patterns, with marked interspecific differences. Whereas breeding mainly started during the austral winter/early spring and ended in summer/early fall, this pattern was stronger in boobies and pelicans than in cormorants. Breeding onset mainly occurred when upwelling was intense but ecosystem productivity was below its annual maxima, and when anchovy were less available and in poor physiological condition. Conversely, the abundance and availability of anchovy improved during chick rearing and peaked around the time of fledging. These results suggest that breeding timing is adjusted so that fledging may occur under optimal environmental conditions, rather than being constrained by nutritional requirements during egg laying. Adjusting breeding time so that fledglings meet optimal conditions at independence is unique compared with other

  16. Modelling the interactions between DOM and bacteria in marine ecosystems: state of the art and future prospective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    polimene, Luca

    2014-05-01

    Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) is the main source of carbon, nutrients and energy for marine prokaryotes, the most abundant life form in the oceans. Only a fraction of assimilated DOM is used by prokaryotes to synthesise new biomass (particulate organic matter, POM), while the rest is used for respiration or is excreted back into the environment as recalcitrant DOM (RDOM). The relative proportions of assimilated DOM that is distributed either to POM, respiration or RDOM is not constant but highly variable depending on the environmental conditions (e.g. nutrient availability, quality/quantity of DOM, temperature). This metabolic plasticity allows bacteria to shape the biogeochemistry of the surrounding waters by modulating three key carbon/energy fluxes fundamental for the functioning of the marine ecosystem: i) the transition from DOM to POM, ii) the remineralisation of carbon and nutrients, and iii) the transformation of labile DOM into recalcitrant DOM. The explicit representation of these processes (and their relative efficiency) in marine ecosystem models is a crucial (and challenging) issue which cannot be overlooked if we want to properly simulate marine biogeochemical cycles under present and climate changing conditions. This talk will provide an overview of how state of the art marine ecosystem models represent the interactions between DOM and bacteria, highlighting strengths and limits of the approaches currently used. A summary of future developments along with issues still open on the topic will also be presented and discussed.

  17. Proceedings of the global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book discusses global climate change which is a certainty. The Earth's climate has never remained static for long and the prospect for human-accelerated climate change in the near future appears likely. Freshwater systems are intimately connected to climate in several ways. They may influence, or even drive, global atmospheric processes affecting climate (e.g., biogenic gas emissions from freshwater wetlands). They may be sensitive early indicators of climate change because they integrate the atmospheric and terrestrial events occurring in their catchments. And, of course, they will be affected by climate change. Freshwater hydrological processes, freshwater resources, and freshwater ecosystems have historically responded to climatic shifts and we fully expect that they will continue to do so. Climate-induced changes may include altered water temperatures, runoff, nutrient flux, discharge, flow regime, lake and aquifer levels, water quality, ice cover, suspended load, primary and secondary production, trophic dynamics, organism ranges, and migration patterns.

  18. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  19. The developing framework of marine ecotoxicology: Pollutants as a variable in marine ecosystems?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luoma, Samuel N.

    1996-01-01

    Marine ecosystems include a subset in which at least some interrelated geochemical, biochemical, physiological, population and community characteristics are changed by pollutants. Moderate contamination is relatively widespread in coastal and estuarine ecosystems, so the subset of ecosystems with at least some processes affected could be relatively large. Pollutant influences have changed and will probably continue to change on time scales of decades. Biological exposures and dose in such ecosystems are species-specific and determined by how the species is exposed to different environmental media and the geochemistry of individual pollutants within those media. Bioaccumulation models offer significant promise for interpreting such exposures. Biological responses to pollutants need to be more directly linked to exposure and dose. At the level of the individual this might be improved by better understanding relationships between tissue concentrations of pollutants and responses to pollutants. Multi-discipline field and laboratory studies combined with advanced understanding of some basic processes have reduced the ambiguities in interpreting a few physiological/organismic responses to pollutants in nature. Recognition of pollutant-induced patterns in population responses could lead to similar advances. A rational framework for ecotoxicology is developing, but its further advance is dependent upon better integration of ecotoxicology with basic marine ecology and biology.

  20. Summertime CO2 fluxes and ecosystem respiration from marine animal colony tundra in maritime Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Renbin; Bao, Tao; Wang, Qing; Xu, Hua; Liu, Yashu

    2014-12-01

    Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (ER) were investigated at penguin, seal and skua colony tundra and the adjacent animal-lacking tundra sites in maritime Antarctica. Net CO2 fluxes showed a large difference between marine animal colonies and animal-lacking tundra sites. The mean NEE from penguin, seal and skua colony tundra sites ranged from -37.2 to 5.2 mg CO2 m-2 h-1, whereas animal-lacking tundra sites experienced a larger net gain of CO2 with the mean flux range from -85.6 to -23.9 mg CO2 m-2 h-1. Ecosystem respiration rates at penguin colony tundra sites (mean 201.3 ± 31.4 mg CO2 m-2 h-1) were significantly higher (P < 0.01) than those at penguin-lacking tundra sites (64.0-87.1 mg CO2 m-2 h-1). The gross photosynthesis (Pg) showed a consistent trend to ER with the highest mean Pg (219.7 ± 34.5 mg CO2 m-2 h-1) at penguin colony tundra sites. When all the data were combined from different types of tundra ecosystems, summertime tundra NEE showed a weak or strong positive correlation with air temperature, 0-10 cm soil temperature or precipitation. The NEE from marine animal colony and animal-lacking tundra was significantly positively correlated (P < 0.001) with soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN) contents and C:N ratios. The ER showed a significant exponential correlation (P < 0.01) with mean 0-15 cm soil temperature, and much higher Q10 value (9.97) was obtained compared with other terrestrial ecosystems, indicating greater temperature sensitivity of tundra ecosystem respiration. Our results indicate that marine animals and the deposition of their excreta might have an important effect on tundra CO2 exchanges and ecosystem respiration, and current climate warming will further decrease tundra CO2 sink in maritime Antarctica.

  1. Provenance for actionable data products and indicators in marine ecosystem assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, S. E.; Maffei, A. R.; Fox, P. A.; West, P.; Di Stefano, M.; Hare, J. A.; Fogarty, M.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystem-based management of Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) involves the sharing of data and information products among a diverse set of stakeholders - from environmental and fisheries scientists to policy makers, commercial entities, nonprofits, and the public. Often the data products that are shared have resulted from a number of processing steps and may also have involved the combination of a number of data sources. The traceability from an actionable data product or indicator back to its original data source(s) is important not just for trust and understanding of each final data product, but also to compare with similar data products produced by the different stakeholder groups. For a data product to be traceable, its provenance, i.e., lineage or history, must be recorded and preferably machine-readable. We are collaborating on a use case to develop a software framework for the bi-annual Ecosystem Status Report (ESR) for the U.S. Northeast Shelf LME. The ESR presents indicators of ecosystem status including climate forcing, primary and secondary production, anthropogenic factors, and integrated ecosystem measures. Our software framework retrieves data, conducts standard analyses, provides iterative and interactive visualization, and generates final graphics for the ESR. The specific process for each data and information product is updated in a metadata template, including data source, code versioning, attribution, and related contextual information suitable for traceability, repeatability, explanation, verification, and validation. Here we present the use of standard metadata for provenance for data products in the ESR, in particular the W3C provenance (PROV) family of specifications, including the PROV-O ontology which maps the PROV data model to RDF. We are also exploring extensions to PROV-O in development (e.g., PROV-ES for Earth Science Data Systems, D-PROV for workflow structure). To associate data products in the ESR to domain-specific ontologies we are

  2. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos.

    PubMed

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-08-28

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  3. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos

    PubMed Central

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E.; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980–2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  4. Vulnerability and resilience of European ecosystems towards extreme climatic events: The ecosystem perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonicke, Kirsten; Rolinski, Susanne; Walz, Ariane; von Bloh, Werner; van Oijen, Marcel; Davin, Edouard; Vieli, Barla; Kato, Tomomichi; Beer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Extremes of meteorological events may but do not have to cause damages in ecosystems. Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on the resilience and stability of ecosystems worldwide. So far, the impacts of trends and extremes of physical drivers on ecosystems have generally been studied regardless of the extremeness of the ecosystem response. We base our analysis on a Probabilistic Risk Assessment concept of Van Oijen et al. (2013) quantifying the vulnerability of vegetation dynamics in relation to the extremeness of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation or drought indices. Here, the definition of extreme, hazardous weather conditions is based on the ecosystem response. Instead of searching for extreme meteorological events, we define extreme ecosystem responses in terms of threshold levels of carbon uptake, and search for the meteorological conditions which are responsible. Having defined hazardous events in this way, we quantify the vulnerability or resilience of ecosystems to such hazards. We apply this approach on results of different vegetation models (such as LPJmL, Orchidee, JSBACH or CLM4) and the forest model BASFOR using climatic input for Europe from the WATCH-ERAI-REMO climate dataset with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Our results show that under current climatic conditions, the southern part of Europe already suffers severe heat and drought stress which is reflected in our approach by vulnerability values being high for precipitation, relatively high for the SPEI index, moderately high for temperature and quite high for the consecutive dry days. Thus, hazard occurrence is frequent enough to determine ecosystem vulnerability but this depends on the definition of the threshold of hazardous ecosystem responses. Vulnerability values in the Mediterranean increase towards the end of the 21st century for all models indicating that a tipping point towards drought damages has been reached for the chosen climate scenario.

  5. Climate extremes and ecosystem productivity in global warming simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wehner, M. F.; Collins, W.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystem responses to present-day droughts and heat-waves are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts on ecosystems, under the assumption that the temperature above which vegetation experiences heat and drought stress is invariant with changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration. Understanding how the impacts of temperature extremes on ecosystems can change with climate change is essential for correctly evaluating and developing Earth System Models (ESMs). The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) historical and future (RCP8.5) climate predictions were analyzed in this study to illustrate non-stationarity of climate impacts on ecosystems, as evident by changes in the distribution of Gross Primary Production (GPP) as a function of temperature between future and historical climates. These changes consist of (1) a uniform shift in the GPP distribution toward warmer temperatures between future and historical climates, and (2) a proportional increase in GPP at all temperatures, consistent with CO2 fertilization. The temperature at which GPP has a local maximum within a given climate increases with global warming and closely tracks the change in mean temperature for each ecosystem. This maximum GPP temperature can be conceptualized as a stable equilibrium determined by the temperature at which an increase in plant water stress is compensated by a decrease in light stress (decreasing cloud cover) with increasing temperature. Temperature relative to the temperature of maximum GPP is proposed as an improved measure of climate extremes more relevant to ecosystem productivity than absolute temperature. The percentage change in GPP attributed to changes in relative temperature extremes is up to 3% per K (decrease in GPP), and reflects both an increase in the frequency of climate extremes in global warming scenarios and the change in temperature criteria for negative climate impacts on ecosystem productivity. Temperature at GPP maximum as

  6. Not just about sunburn--the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Sharon A; Erickson, David J

    2015-02-01

    Climate scientists have concluded that stratospheric ozone depletion has been a major driver of Southern Hemisphere climate processes since about 1980. The implications of these observed and modelled changes in climate are likely to be far more pervasive for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems than the increase in ultraviolet-B radiation due to ozone depletion; however, they have been largely overlooked in the biological literature. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of how ozone depletion has impacted Southern Hemisphere climate and highlight the relatively few documented impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Reviewing the climate literature, we present examples of how ozone depletion changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation, with an emphasis on how these alterations in the physical climate system affect Southern Hemisphere weather, especially over the summer season (December-February). These potentially include increased incidence of extreme events, resulting in costly floods, drought, wildfires and serious environmental damage. The ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes. The objective of this synthesis was to stimulate the ecological community to look beyond ultraviolet-B radiation when considering the impacts of ozone depletion. Such widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate are likely to have had as much or more impact on natural ecosystems and food production over the past few decades, than the increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion. PMID:25402975

  7. MAREDAT: towards a world atlas of MARine Ecosystem DATa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buitenhuis, E. T.; Vogt, M.; Moriarty, R.; Bednaršek, N.; Doney, S. C.; Leblanc, K.; Le Quéré, C.; Luo, Y.-W.; O'Brien, C.; O'Brien, T.; Peloquin, J.; Schiebel, R.; Swan, C.

    2013-07-01

    We present a summary of biomass data for 11 plankton functional types (PFTs) plus phytoplankton pigment data, compiled as part of the MARine Ecosystem biomass DATa (MAREDAT) initiative. The goal of the MAREDAT initiative is to provide, in due course, global gridded data products with coverage of all planktic components of the global ocean ecosystem. This special issue is the first step towards achieving this. The PFTs presented here include picophytoplankton, diazotrophs, coccolithophores, Phaeocystis, diatoms, picoheterotrophs, microzooplankton, foraminifers, mesozooplankton, pteropods and macrozooplankton. All variables have been gridded onto a World Ocean Atlas (WOA) grid (1° × 1° × 33 vertical levels × monthly climatologies). The results show that abundance is much better constrained than their carbon content/elemental composition, and coastal seas and other high productivity regions have much better coverage than the much larger volumes where biomass is relatively low. The data show that (1) the global total heterotrophic biomass (2.0-4.6 Pg C) is at least as high as the total autotrophic biomass (0.5-2.4 Pg C excluding nanophytoplankton and autotrophic dinoflagellates); (2) the biomass of zooplankton calcifiers (0.03-0.67 Pg C) is substantially higher than that of coccolithophores (0.001-0.03 Pg C); (3) patchiness of biomass distribution increases with organism size; and (4) although zooplankton biomass measurements below 200 m are rare, the limited measurements available suggest that Bacteria and Archaea are not the only important heterotrophs in the deep sea. More data will be needed to characterise ocean ecosystem functioning and associated biogeochemistry in the Southern Hemisphere and below 200 m. Future efforts to understand marine ecosystem composition and functioning will be helped both by further archiving of historical data and future sampling at new locations. Microzooplankton database:

  8. Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

    PubMed

    Schmittner, Andreas

    2005-03-31

    Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. PMID:15800620

  9. Integrating Climate Change Resilience Features into the Incremental Refinement of an Existing Marine Park

    PubMed Central

    Beckley, Lynnath E.; Kobryn, Halina T.; Lombard, Amanda T.; Radford, Ben; Heyward, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Marine protected area (MPA) designs are likely to require iterative refinement as new knowledge is gained. In particular, there is an increasing need to consider the effects of climate change, especially the ability of ecosystems to resist and/or recover from climate-related disturbances, within the MPA planning process. However, there has been limited research addressing the incorporation of climate change resilience into MPA design. This study used Marxan conservation planning software with fine-scale shallow water (<20 m) bathymetry and habitat maps, models of major benthic communities for deeper water, and comprehensive human use information from Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia to identify climate change resilience features to integrate into the incremental refinement of the marine park. The study assessed the representation of benthic habitats within the current marine park zones, identified priority areas of high resilience for inclusion within no-take zones and examined if any iterative refinements to the current no-take zones are necessary. Of the 65 habitat classes, 16 did not meet representation targets within the current no-take zones, most of which were in deeper offshore waters. These deeper areas also demonstrated the highest resilience values and, as such, Marxan outputs suggested minor increases to the current no-take zones in the deeper offshore areas. This work demonstrates that inclusion of fine-scale climate change resilience features within the design process for MPAs is feasible, and can be applied to future marine spatial planning practices globally. PMID:27529820

  10. Integrating Climate Change Resilience Features into the Incremental Refinement of an Existing Marine Park.

    PubMed

    Davies, Harriet N; Beckley, Lynnath E; Kobryn, Halina T; Lombard, Amanda T; Radford, Ben; Heyward, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Marine protected area (MPA) designs are likely to require iterative refinement as new knowledge is gained. In particular, there is an increasing need to consider the effects of climate change, especially the ability of ecosystems to resist and/or recover from climate-related disturbances, within the MPA planning process. However, there has been limited research addressing the incorporation of climate change resilience into MPA design. This study used Marxan conservation planning software with fine-scale shallow water (<20 m) bathymetry and habitat maps, models of major benthic communities for deeper water, and comprehensive human use information from Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia to identify climate change resilience features to integrate into the incremental refinement of the marine park. The study assessed the representation of benthic habitats within the current marine park zones, identified priority areas of high resilience for inclusion within no-take zones and examined if any iterative refinements to the current no-take zones are necessary. Of the 65 habitat classes, 16 did not meet representation targets within the current no-take zones, most of which were in deeper offshore waters. These deeper areas also demonstrated the highest resilience values and, as such, Marxan outputs suggested minor increases to the current no-take zones in the deeper offshore areas. This work demonstrates that inclusion of fine-scale climate change resilience features within the design process for MPAs is feasible, and can be applied to future marine spatial planning practices globally. PMID:27529820

  11. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-10-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

  12. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    PubMed Central

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes. PMID:26506134

  13. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

    PubMed

    Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes. PMID:26506134

  14. Challenges for Ecosystem Services Provided by Coral Reefs In the Face of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikuchi, R. K.; Elliff, C. I.

    2014-12-01

    to increase resilience and guarantee the adaptation of this ecosystem to climate change. Thus, considering that the majority of the marine ecosystem services we benefit from are provided from coastal habitats, of which coral reefs play an important role, the challenge at hand is in fact the interaction between local factors and climate change

  15. Biological Invasions Impact Ecosystem Properties and can Affect Climate Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Meler, M.; Matamala, R.; Cook, D. R.; Graham, S.; Fan, Z.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change models vary widely in their predictions of the effects of climate forcing, in part because of difficulties in assigning sources of uncertainties and in simulating changes in the carbon source/sink status and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems. We studied the impacts of vegetation and weather variations on carbon and energy fluxes at a restored tallgrass prairie in Illinois. The prairie was a strong carbon sink, despite a prolonged drought period and vegetation changes due to the presence of a non-native biennial plant. A model considering the combined effects of air temperature, precipitation, RH, incoming solar radiation, and vegetation was also developed and used to describe net ecosystem exchange for all years. The vegetation factor was represented in the model with summer albedo and/or NDVI. Results showed that the vegetation factor was more important than abiotic factors in describing changes in C and energy fluxes in ecosystems under disturbances. Changes from natives to a non-native forbs species had the strongest effect in reducing net ecosystem production and increasing sensible heat flux and albedo, which may result in positive feedbacks on warming. Here we show that non-native species invasions can alter the ecosystem sensitivity to climatic factors often construed in models.

  16. Effects of Ocean Ecosystem on Marine Aerosol-Cloud Interaction

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Nenes, Athanasios

    2010-01-01

    Using smore » atellite data for the surface ocean, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and cloud microphysical parameters, we show that statistically significant positive correlations exist between ocean ecosystem productivity, the abundance of submicron aerosols, and cloud microphysical properties over different parts of the remote oceans. The correlation coefficient for remotely sensed surface chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl- a ]) and liquid cloud effective radii over productive areas of the oceans varies between − 0.2 and − 0.6 . Special attention is given to identifying (and addressing) problems from correlation analysis used in the previous studies that can lead to erroneous conclusions. A new approach (using the difference between retrieved AOD and predicted sea salt aerosol optical depth, AOD diff ) is developed to explore causal links between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the remote marine atmosphere. We have found that over multiple time periods, 550 nm AOD diff (sensitive to accumulation mode aerosol, which is the prime contributor to CCN) correlates well with [Chl- a ] over the productive waters of the Southern Ocean. Since [Chl- a ] can be used as a proxy of ocean biological productivity, our analysis demonstrates the role of ocean ecology in contributing CCN, thus shaping the microphysical properties of low-level marine clouds.« less

  17. Ediacaran Marine Redox Heterogeneity and Early Animal Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chao; Planavsky, Noah J.; Shi, Wei; Zhang, Zihu; Zhou, Chuanming; Cheng, Meng; Tarhan, Lidya G.; Luo, Genming; Xie, Shucheng

    2015-01-01

    Oxygenation has widely been viewed as a major factor driving the emergence and diversification of animals. However, links between early animal evolution and shifts in surface oxygen levels have largely been limited to extrapolation of paleoredox conditions reconstructed from unfossiliferous strata to settings in which contemporaneous fossils were preserved. Herein, we present a multi-proxy paleoredox study of late Ediacaran (ca. 560-551 Ma) shales hosting the Miaohe Konservat-Lagerstätte of South China and, for comparison, equivalent non-fossil-bearing shales at adjacent sections. For the fossiliferous strata at Miaohe there is geochemical evidence for anoxic conditions, but paleontological evidence for at least episodically oxic conditions. An oxygen-stressed environment is consistent with the low diversity and simple morphology of Miaohe Biota macrofossils. However, there is no evidence for euxinic (anoxic and sulphidic) conditions for the fossiliferous strata at Miaohe, in contrast to adjacent unfossiliferous sections. Our results indicate that Ediacaran marine redox chemistry was highly heterogeneous, even at the kilometre-scale. Therefore, our study provides direct—rather than inferred—evidence that anoxia played a role in shaping a landmark Ediacaran ecosystem. If the anoxic conditions characteristic of the studied sections were widespread in the late Neoproterozoic, environmental stress would have hindered the development of complex ecosystems. PMID:26597559

  18. Ediacaran Marine Redox Heterogeneity and Early Animal Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chao; Planavsky, Noah J.; Shi, Wei; Zhang, Zihu; Zhou, Chuanming; Cheng, Meng; Tarhan, Lidya G.; Luo, Genming; Xie, Shucheng

    2015-11-01

    Oxygenation has widely been viewed as a major factor driving the emergence and diversification of animals. However, links between early animal evolution and shifts in surface oxygen levels have largely been limited to extrapolation of paleoredox conditions reconstructed from unfossiliferous strata to settings in which contemporaneous fossils were preserved. Herein, we present a multi-proxy paleoredox study of late Ediacaran (ca. 560-551 Ma) shales hosting the Miaohe Konservat-Lagerstätte of South China and, for comparison, equivalent non-fossil-bearing shales at adjacent sections. For the fossiliferous strata at Miaohe there is geochemical evidence for anoxic conditions, but paleontological evidence for at least episodically oxic conditions. An oxygen-stressed environment is consistent with the low diversity and simple morphology of Miaohe Biota macrofossils. However, there is no evidence for euxinic (anoxic and sulphidic) conditions for the fossiliferous strata at Miaohe, in contrast to adjacent unfossiliferous sections. Our results indicate that Ediacaran marine redox chemistry was highly heterogeneous, even at the kilometre-scale. Therefore, our study provides direct—rather than inferred—evidence that anoxia played a role in shaping a landmark Ediacaran ecosystem. If the anoxic conditions characteristic of the studied sections were widespread in the late Neoproterozoic, environmental stress would have hindered the development of complex ecosystems.

  19. Functional consequences of realistic biodiversity changes in a marine ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Bracken, Matthew E. S.; Friberg, Sara E.; Gonzalez-Dorantes, Cirse A.; Williams, Susan L.

    2008-01-01

    Declines in biodiversity have prompted concern over the consequences of species loss for the goods and services provided by natural ecosystems. However, relatively few studies have evaluated the functional consequences of realistic, nonrandom changes in biodiversity. Instead, most designs have used randomly selected assemblages from a local species pool to construct diversity gradients. It is therefore difficult, based on current evidence, to predict the functional consequences of realistic declines in biodiversity. In this study, we used tide pool microcosms to demonstrate that the effects of real-world changes in biodiversity may be very different from those of random diversity changes. Specifically, we measured the relationship between the diversity of a seaweed assemblage and its ability to use nitrogen, a key limiting nutrient in nearshore marine systems. We quantified nitrogen uptake using both experimental and model seaweed assemblages and found that natural increases in diversity resulted in enhanced rates of nitrogen use, whereas random diversity changes had no effect on nitrogen uptake. Our results suggest that understanding the real-world consequences of declining biodiversity will require addressing changes in species performance along natural diversity gradients and understanding the relationships between species' susceptibility to loss and their contributions to ecosystem functioning. PMID:18195375

  20. Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Loehle, Craig

    2011-01-01

    There is concern about the potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. To address this concern, a large body of literature has developed in which these impacts are assessed. In this study, criteria for conducting reliable and useful assessments of impacts of future climate are suggested. The major decisions involve: clearly defining an emissions scenario; selecting a climate model; evaluating climate model skill and bias; quantifying General Circulation Model (GCM) between-model variability; selecting an ecosystem model and assessing uncertainty; properly considering transient versus equilibrium responses; including effects of CO2 on plant response; evaluating implications of simplifying assumptions; and considering animal linkage with vegetation. A sample of the literature was surveyed in light of these criteria. Many of the studies used climate simulations that were >10 years old and not representative of best current models. Future effects of elevated CO2 on plant drought resistance and productivity were generally included in growth model studies but not in niche (habitat suitability) studies, causing the latter to forecast greater future adverse impacts. Overly simplified spatial representation was frequent and caused the existence of refugia to be underestimated. Few studies compared multiple climate simulations and ecosystem models (including parametric uncertainty), leading to a false impression of precision and potentially arbitrary results due to high between-model variance. No study assessed climate model retrodictive skill or bias. Overall, most current studies fail to meet all of the proposed criteria. Suggestions for improving assessments are provided. PMID:22393483

  1. Western Mountain Initiative: predicting ecosystem responses to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baron, Jill S.; Peterson, David L.; Wilson, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Mountain ecosystems of the western United States provide irreplaceable goods and services such as water, timber, biodiversity, and recreational opportunities, but their responses to climatic changes are complex and not well understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI), a collaboration between USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists, catalyzes assessment and synthesis of the effects of disturbance and climate change across western mountain areas, focusing on national parks and surrounding national forests. The WMI takes an ecosystem approach to science, integrating research across science disciplines at scales ranging from field studies to global trends.

  2. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  3. Effects of ocean acidification on temperate coastal marine ecosystems and fisheries in the northeast Pacific.

    PubMed

    Haigh, Rowan; Ianson, Debby; Holt, Carrie A; Neate, Holly E; Edwards, Andrew M

    2015-01-01

    As the oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 they become more acidic, a problem termed ocean acidification (OA). Since this increase in CO2 is occurring rapidly, OA may have profound implications for marine ecosystems. In the temperate northeast Pacific, fisheries play key economic and cultural roles and provide significant employment, especially in rural areas. In British Columbia (BC), sport (recreational) fishing generates more income than commercial fishing (including the expanding aquaculture industry). Salmon (fished recreationally and farmed) and Pacific Halibut are responsible for the majority of fishery-related income. This region naturally has relatively acidic (low pH) waters due to ocean circulation, and so may be particularly vulnerable to OA. We have analyzed available data to provide a current description of the marine ecosystem, focusing on vertical distributions of commercially harvested groups in BC in the context of local carbon and pH conditions. We then evaluated the potential impact of OA on this temperate marine system using currently available studies. Our results highlight significant knowledge gaps. Above trophic levels 2-3 (where most local fishery-income is generated), little is known about the direct impact of OA, and more importantly about the combined impact of multi-stressors, like temperature, that are also changing as our climate changes. There is evidence that OA may have indirect negative impacts on finfish through changes at lower trophic levels and in habitats. In particular, OA may lead to increased fish-killing algal blooms that can affect the lucrative salmon aquaculture industry. On the other hand, some species of locally farmed shellfish have been well-studied and exhibit significant negative direct impacts associated with OA, especially at the larval stage. We summarize the direct and indirect impacts of OA on all groups of marine organisms in this region and provide conclusions, ordered by immediacy and certainty. PMID

  4. Effects of Ocean Acidification on Temperate Coastal Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries in the Northeast Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Haigh, Rowan; Ianson, Debby; Holt, Carrie A.; Neate, Holly E.; Edwards, Andrew M.

    2015-01-01

    As the oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 they become more acidic, a problem termed ocean acidification (OA). Since this increase in CO2 is occurring rapidly, OA may have profound implications for marine ecosystems. In the temperate northeast Pacific, fisheries play key economic and cultural roles and provide significant employment, especially in rural areas. In British Columbia (BC), sport (recreational) fishing generates more income than commercial fishing (including the expanding aquaculture industry). Salmon (fished recreationally and farmed) and Pacific Halibut are responsible for the majority of fishery-related income. This region naturally has relatively acidic (low pH) waters due to ocean circulation, and so may be particularly vulnerable to OA. We have analyzed available data to provide a current description of the marine ecosystem, focusing on vertical distributions of commercially harvested groups in BC in the context of local carbon and pH conditions. We then evaluated the potential impact of OA on this temperate marine system using currently available studies. Our results highlight significant knowledge gaps. Above trophic levels 2–3 (where most local fishery-income is generated), little is known about the direct impact of OA, and more importantly about the combined impact of multi-stressors, like temperature, that are also changing as our climate changes. There is evidence that OA may have indirect negative impacts on finfish through changes at lower trophic levels and in habitats. In particular, OA may lead to increased fish-killing algal blooms that can affect the lucrative salmon aquaculture industry. On the other hand, some species of locally farmed shellfish have been well-studied and exhibit significant negative direct impacts associated with OA, especially at the larval stage. We summarize the direct and indirect impacts of OA on all groups of marine organisms in this region and provide conclusions, ordered by immediacy and certainty. PMID

  5. Marine Mammal Impacts in Exploited Ecosystems: Would Large Scale Culling Benefit Fisheries?

    PubMed Central

    Morissette, Lyne; Christensen, Villy; Pauly, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Competition between marine mammals and fisheries for marine resources—whether real or perceived—has become a major issue for several countries and in international fora. We examined trophic interactions between marine mammals and fisheries based on a resource overlap index, using seven Ecopath models including marine mammal groups. On a global scale, most food consumed by marine mammals consisted of prey types that were not the main target of fisheries. For each ecosystem, the primary production required (PPR) to sustain marine mammals was less than half the PPR to sustain fisheries catches. We also developed an index representing the mean trophic level of marine mammal's consumption (TLQ) and compared it with the mean trophic level of fisheries' catches (TLC). Our results showed that overall TLQ was lower than TLC (2.88 versus 3.42). As fisheries increasingly exploit lower-trophic level species, the competition with marine mammals may become more important. We used mixed trophic impact analysis to evaluate indirect trophic effects of marine mammals, and in some cases found beneficial effects on some prey. Finally, we assessed the change in the trophic structure of an ecosystem after a simulated extirpation of marine mammal populations. We found that this lead to alterations in the structure of the ecosystems, and that there was no clear and direct relationship between marine mammals' predation and the potential catch by fisheries. Indeed, total biomass, with no marine mammals in the ecosystem, generally remained surprisingly similar, or even decreased for some species. PMID:22970153

  6. Mammoth ecosystem: Climatic areal, animal's density and cause of extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimov, S.; Zimov, N.; Zimova, G.; Chapin, S. F.

    2008-12-01

    During the last glaciations Mammoth Ecosystem (ME) occupied territory from present-day France to Canada and from the Arctic islands to China. This ecosystem played major role in global carbon cycle and human settling around the planet. Causes of extinction of this ecosystem are debatable. Analyses of hundreds of radiocarbon dates of ME animal fossil remains showed that warming and moistening of climate wasn't accompanied by animal extinction. On the opposite, on the north right after the warming rise of herbivore population was observed. Reconstruction of ME climatic areal showed that its climatic optimum lies within range of annual precipitation of 200-350 mm and average summer temperatures of +8-+12oC which corresponds with modern climate of Northern Siberia. Analyses of bones and skeletons concentrations in permafrost of Northern Siberia showed that animal density in ME was similar to African savannah. That was a high productive ecosystem that could sustain in wide variety of climates because numerous herbivores maintained there pastures themselves.

  7. Marine mammal strandings and environmental changes: a 15-year study in the St. Lawrence ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Truchon, Marie-Hélène; Measures, Lena; L'Hérault, Vincent; Brêthes, Jean-Claude; Galbraith, Peter S; Harvey, Michel; Lessard, Sylvie; Starr, Michel; Lecomte, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the effects of climatic variability on marine mammals is challenging due to the complexity of ecological interactions. We used general linear models to analyze a 15-year database documenting marine mammal strandings (1994-2008; n = 1,193) and nine environmental parameters known to affect marine mammal survival, from regional (sea ice) to continental scales (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Stranding events were more frequent during summer and fall than other seasons, and have increased since 1994. Poor ice conditions observed during the same period may have affected marine mammals either directly, by modulating the availability of habitat for feeding and breeding activities, or indirectly, through changes in water conditions and marine productivity (krill abundance). For most species (75%, n = 6 species), a low volume of ice was correlated with increasing frequency of stranding events (e.g. R(2)adj = 0.59, hooded seal, Cystophora cristata). This likely led to an increase in seal mortality during the breeding period, but also to increase habitat availability for seasonal migratory cetaceans using ice-free areas during winter. We also detected a high frequency of stranding events for mysticete species (minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and resident species (beluga, Delphinapterus leucas), correlated with low krill abundance since 1994. Positive NAO indices were positively correlated with high frequencies of stranding events for resident and seasonal migratory cetaceans, as well as rare species (R(2)adj = 0.53, 0.81 and 0.34, respectively). This contrasts with seal mass stranding numbers, which were negatively correlated with a positive NAO index. In addition, an unusual multiple species mortality event (n = 114, 62% of total annual mortality) in 2008 was caused by a harmful algal bloom. Our findings provide an empirical baseline in understanding marine mammal survival when faced with climatic variability. This is a promising

  8. Marine Mammal Strandings and Environmental Changes: A 15-Year Study in the St. Lawrence Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Truchon, Marie-Hélène; Measures, Lena; L’Hérault, Vincent; Brêthes, Jean-Claude; Galbraith, Peter S.; Harvey, Michel; Lessard, Sylvie; Starr, Michel; Lecomte, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the effects of climatic variability on marine mammals is challenging due to the complexity of ecological interactions. We used general linear models to analyze a 15-year database documenting marine mammal strandings (1994–2008; n = 1,193) and nine environmental parameters known to affect marine mammal survival, from regional (sea ice) to continental scales (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Stranding events were more frequent during summer and fall than other seasons, and have increased since 1994. Poor ice conditions observed during the same period may have affected marine mammals either directly, by modulating the availability of habitat for feeding and breeding activities, or indirectly, through changes in water conditions and marine productivity (krill abundance). For most species (75%, n = 6 species), a low volume of ice was correlated with increasing frequency of stranding events (e.g. R2adj = 0.59, hooded seal, Cystophora cristata). This likely led to an increase in seal mortality during the breeding period, but also to increase habitat availability for seasonal migratory cetaceans using ice-free areas during winter. We also detected a high frequency of stranding events for mysticete species (minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and resident species (beluga, Delphinapterus leucas), correlated with low krill abundance since 1994. Positive NAO indices were positively correlated with high frequencies of stranding events for resident and seasonal migratory cetaceans, as well as rare species (R2adj = 0.53, 0.81 and 0.34, respectively). This contrasts with seal mass stranding numbers, which were negatively correlated with a positive NAO index. In addition, an unusual multiple species mortality event (n = 114, 62% of total annual mortality) in 2008 was caused by a harmful algal bloom. Our findings provide an empirical baseline in understanding marine mammal survival when faced with climatic variability. This is a promising

  9. Critical indirect effects of climate change on sub-Antarctic ecosystem functioning

    PubMed Central

    Louise Allan, E; William Froneman, P; Durgadoo, Jonathan V; McQuaid, Christopher D; Ansorge, Isabelle J; Richoux, Nicole B

    2013-01-01

    Sub-Antarctic islands represent critical breeding habitats for land-based top predators that dominate Southern Ocean food webs. Reproduction and molting incur high energetic demands that are sustained at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) by both inshore (phytoplankton blooms; “island mass effect”; autochthonous) and offshore (allochthonous) productivity. As the relative contributions of these sustenance pathways are, in turn, affected by oceanographic conditions around the PEIs, we address the consequences of climatically driven changes in the physical environment on this island ecosystem. We show that there has been a measurable long-term shift in the carbon isotope signatures of the benthos inhabiting the shallow shelf region of the PEIs, most likely reflecting a long-term decline in enhanced phytoplankton productivity at the islands in response to a climate-driven shift in the position of the sub-Antarctic Front. Our results indicate that regional climate change has affected the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous productivity at the PEIs. Over the last three decades, inshore-feeding top predators at the islands have shown a marked decrease in their population sizes. Conversely, population sizes of offshore-feeding predators that forage over great distances from the islands have remained stable or increased, with one exception. Population decline of predators that rely heavily on organisms inhabiting the inshore region strongly suggest changes in prey availability, which are likely driven by factors such as fisheries impacts on some prey populations and shifts in competitive interactions among predators. In addition to these local factors, our analysis indicates that changes in prey availability may also result indirectly through regional climate change effects on the islands' marine ecosystem. Most importantly, our results indicate that a fundamental shift in the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous trophic pathways

  10. Assessing the trophic position and ecological role of squids in marine ecosystems by means of food-web models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coll, Marta; Navarro, Joan; Olson, Robert J.; Christensen, Villy

    2013-10-01

    We synthesized available information from ecological models at local and regional scales to obtain a global picture of the trophic position and ecological role of squids in marine ecosystems. First, static food-web models were used to analyze basic ecological parameters and indicators of squids: biomass, production, consumption, trophic level, omnivory index, predation mortality diet, and the ecological role. In addition, we developed various dynamic temporal simulations using two food-web models that included squids in their parameterization, and we investigated potential impacts of fishing pressure and environmental conditions for squid populations and, consequently, for marine food webs. Our results showed that squids occupy a large range of trophic levels in marine food webs and show a large trophic width, reflecting the versatility in their feeding behaviors and dietary habits. Models illustrated that squids are abundant organisms in marine ecosystems, and have high growth and consumption rates, but these parameters are highly variable because squids are adapted to a large variety of environmental conditions. Results also show that squids can have a large trophic impact on other elements of the food web, and top-down control from squids to their prey can be high. In addition, some squid species are important prey of apical predators and may be keystone species in marine food webs. In fact, we found strong interrelationships between neritic squids and the populations of their prey and predators in coastal and shelf areas, while the role of squids in open ocean and upwelling ecosystems appeared more constrained to a bottom-up impact on their predators. Therefore, large removals of squids will likely have large-scale effects on marine ecosystems. In addition, simulations confirm that squids are able to benefit from a general increase in fishing pressure, mainly due to predation release, and quickly respond to changes triggered by the environment. Squids may thus

  11. Oceanic periglacial in the evolution of the Arctic marine ecosystem

    SciTech Connect

    Matishov, G.G.

    1996-12-31

    A study of the Arctic marine and land environment and biota is connected with the analysis of the global climatic changes and the general history of Arctic and subarctic ecological systems. Ancient glaciation not only influenced the geomorphology of landscapes, physical and chemical properties of the ocean and its seas, but also caused the global change of the morphoclimatic zonality in the ocean as a whole. Submarine and subaqual hydrological, geomorphological and biological processes on the shelves of polar and temperate latitudes had intensified especially during the melting of continental glaciers. The study of the periglacial problem consists, as a whole, in the research of the geological and biological phenomena which take place in the pelagial and the benthal outside the ice sheets and are connected with them by causal, spatial and temporal relations.

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND HUMAN HEALTH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health and well-being are and will be affected by climate change, both directly through changes in extreme weather events and indirectly through weather induced changes in societal systems and their supporting ecosystems. The goal of this study was to develop and apply a b...

  13. The costs of climate change: ecosystem services and wildland fires

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper we use Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) to monetize the avoided ecosystem services losses due to climate change-induced wildland fires in the U.S. Specifically, we use the U.S. Forest Service’s MC1 dynamic global vegetation model to forecast changes in wildland fi...

  14. RESPONSE AND FEEDBACKS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. Climate Change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response, and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. Forests play a major role in the Eart...

  15. A new climate regime in northeast pacific ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, William T.; Schwing, Franklin B.

    2003-09-01

    Following a strong El Niño, the climate of the North Pacific underwent a rapid and striking transition in late 1998. Upwelling-favorable winds strengthened over the California Current (CC), and winds weakened in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Coastal waters of the CC and GOA cooled by several degrees, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) reversed sign and remained negative through summer 2002. Zooplankton biomass in the northern CC doubled and switched from warm to cold water species dominance, coho and chinook salmon stocks rebounded, and anchovy and osmeriids increased. Persistent changes in atmosphere and upper ocean fields and ecosystem structure suggest a climate regime shift has occurred, similar (opposite) to shifts observed in 1947 (1925 and 1976). If the 1998 regime shift in the northern CC is completely analogous to earlier shifts, then ecosystem structure should have changed in the GOA. Recent surveys indicate this ecosystem has transformed as well.

  16. [Values of marine ecosystem services in Sanggou Bay].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhao-hui; Lü, Ji-bin; Ye, Shu-feng; Zhu, Ming-yuan

    2007-11-01

    A valuation study was conducted in Sanggou Bay, a typical and intensive coastal aquaculture area in China Yellow Sea. The results showed that the total value of ecosystem services (VES) in Sanggou Bay was 6.07 x 10(8) Yen in 2003, with an average unit VES being 4.24 x 10(6) Yen x km(-2). Within the total VES, the provision services, regulation services, and culture services accounted for 51.29%, 17.34%, and 31.37%, respectively. Among the eight primary and secondary services valuated in Sanggou Bay, food provision services held the highest value (50.45%), followed by tourism and entertainment services (29.89%) and climate regulation services (9.18%). Harmful organism and disease control services have the lowest value (0.0017%). The aquaculture activities had greater contributions to the local social economy, environmental regulation, and social culture. Aquaculture activities, especially macro-algae farming, are of significance in maintaining and enhancing the ecosystem services. PMID:18260461

  17. Environmental controls on marine ecosystems during the early Toarcian extinction event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danise, Silvia; Twitchett, Richard J.

    2015-04-01

    The fossil record has the potential to provide valuable insights into species response to past climate change if paleontological data are combined with appropriate proxies of environmental change. In the early Toarcian (Early Jurassic, ˜183Ma ago) rapid warming coincided with a main perturbation in the carbon cycle, seal level rise, widespread deposition of organic-rich, black shales under anoxic conditions, increased weathering rates and a biotic crisis in the marine realm, with the extinction of approximately 5% of families and 26% of genera. Because of this complex suite of inter-linked environmental and oceanographic changes, a key challenge is to determine which of these were most influential in controlling specific aspects of extinction and ecological collapse. In this study we combine high resolution palaeontological and palaeoenvironmental data from the coastal sections of the Whitby Mudstone Formation in North Yorkshire, UK, to reconstruct how climate changes controlled the structure of benthic and nektonic communities through the event, over a time period of ˜1.7 Ma. We show that benthic and nektonic ecosystems became decoupled and were driven by different environmental variables. Although rapid warming has been invoked as the main trigger of this event, the palaeotemperature proxy was a poor predictor of marine community dynamics, and abiotic factors indirectly linked to temperature, such as change in seawater dissolved oxygen concentration and nutrient inputs, were more important.

  18. Climate-ecosystem change off southern California: Time-dependent seabird predator-prey numerical responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sydeman, William J.; Thompson, Sarah Ann; Santora, Jarrod A.; Koslow, J. Anthony; Goericke, Ralf; Ohman, Mark D.

    2015-02-01

    Climate change may increase both stratification and upwelling in marine ecosystems, but these processes may affect productivity in opposing or complementary ways. For the Southern California region of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), we hypothesized that changes in stratification and upwelling have affected marine bird populations indirectly through changes in prey availability. To test this hypothesis, we derived trends and associations between stratification and upwelling, the relative abundance of potential prey including krill and forage fish, and seabirds based on the long-term, multi-disciplinary CalCOFI/CCE-LTER program. Over the period 1987 through 2011, spring and summer seabird density (all species combined) declined by ~2% per year, mostly in the northern sector of the study region. Krill showed variable trends with two species increasing and one deceasing, resulting in community reorganization. Nearshore forage fish, dominated by northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) as well as offshore mesopelagic species, show declines in relative abundance over this period. The unidirectional decline in springtime seabird density is largely explained by declining nearshore fish abundance in the previous season (winter). Interannual variability in seabird density, especially in the 2000s, is explained by variability in krill abundance. Changes in the numerical responses of seabirds to prey abundance correspond to a putative ecosystem shift in 1998-1999 and support aspects of optimal foraging (diet) theory. Predator-prey interactions and numerical responses clearly explain aspects of the upper trophic level patterns of change in the pelagic ecosystem off southern California.

  19. The role of a dominant predator in shaping biodiversity over space and time in a marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Ellingsen, Kari E; Anderson, Marti J; Shackell, Nancy L; Tveraa, Torkild; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Frank, Kenneth T

    2015-09-01

    1. Exploitation of living marine resources has resulted in major changes to populations of targeted species and functional groups of large-bodied species in the ocean. However, the effects of overfishing and collapse of large top predators on the broad-scale biodiversity of oceanic ecosystems remain largely unexplored. 2. Populations of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were overfished and several collapsed in the early 1990s across Atlantic Canada, providing a unique opportunity to study potential ecosystem-level effects of the reduction of a dominant predator on fish biodiversity, and to identify how such effects might interact with other environmental factors, such as changes in climate, over time. 3. We combined causal modelling with model selection and multimodel inference to analyse 41 years of fishery-independent survey data (1970-2010) and quantify ecosystem-level effects of overfishing and climate variation on the biodiversity of fishes across a broad area (172 000 km(2) ) of the Scotian Shelf. 4. We found that alpha and beta diversity increased with decreases in cod occurrence; fish communities were less homogeneous and more variable in systems where cod no longer dominated. These effects were most pronounced in the colder north-eastern parts of the Scotian Shelf. 5. Our results provide strong evidence that intensive harvesting (and collapse) of marine apex predators can have large impacts on biodiversity, with far-reaching consequences for ecological stability across an entire ecosystem. PMID:25981204

  20. Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaugrand, Grégory

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is unambiguous and its effects are clearly detected in all functional units of the Earth system. This study presents new analyses of sea-surface temperature changes and show that climate change is affecting ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Changes are seen from phytoplankton to zooplankton to fish and are modifying the dominance of species and the structure, the diversity and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Changes also range from phenological to biogeographical shifts and have involved in some regions of the Atlantic abrupt ecosystem shifts. These alterations reflect a response of pelagic ecosystems to a warmer temperature regime. Mechanisms are complex because they are nonlinear exhibiting tipping points and varying in space and time. Sensitivity of organisms to temperature changes is high, implicating that a small temperature modification can have sustained ecosystem effects. Implications of these changes for biogeochemical cycles are discussed. Two observed changes detected in the North Sea that could have opposite effects on carbon cycle are discussed. Increase in phytoplankton, as inferred from the phytoplankton colour index derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, has been detected in the North Sea. This pattern has been accompanied by a reduction in the abundance of the herbivorous species Calanus finmarchicus. This might have reduced the grazing pressure and increase diatomaceous 'fluff', therefore carbon export in the North Sea. Therefore, it could be argued that the biological carbon pump might increase in this region with sea warming. In the meantime, however, the mean size of organisms (calanoid copepods) has dropped. Such changes have implications for the turnover time of biogenic carbon in plankton organisms and the mean residence time of particulate carbon they produce. The system characterising the warmer period is more based on recycling and less on export. The increase in the minimum turnover time

  1. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    PubMed

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being. PMID:26886790

  2. Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2011-12-01

    Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

  3. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Smith, K. L.; Ruhl, H. A.; Bett, B. J.; Billett, D. S. M.; Lampitt, R. S.; Kaufmann, R. S.

    2009-01-01

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy ≈60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate. PMID:19901326

  4. Uncovering the volatile nature of tropical coastal marine ecosystems in a changing world.

    PubMed

    Exton, Dan A; McGenity, Terry J; Steinke, Michael; Smith, David J; Suggett, David J

    2015-04-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), in particular dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and isoprene, have fundamental ecological, physiological and climatic roles. Our current understanding of these roles is almost exclusively established from terrestrial or oceanic environments but signifies a potentially major, but largely unknown, role for BVOCs in tropical coastal marine ecosystems. The tropical coast is a transition zone between the land and ocean, characterized by highly productive and biodiverse coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves, which house primary producers that are amongst the greatest emitters of BVOCs on the planet. Here, we synthesize our existing understanding of BVOC emissions to produce a novel conceptual framework of the tropical marine coast as a continuum from DMS-dominated reef producers to isoprene-dominated mangroves. We use existing and previously unpublished data to consider how current environmental conditions shape BVOC production across the tropical coastal continuum, and in turn how BVOCs can regulate environmental stress tolerance or species interactions via infochemical networks. We use this as a framework to discuss how existing predictions of future tropical coastal BVOC emissions, and the roles they play, are effectively restricted to present day 'baseline' trends of BVOC production across species and environmental conditions; as such, there remains a critical need to focus research efforts on BVOC responses to rapidly accelerating anthropogenic impacts at local and regional scales. We highlight the complete lack of current knowledge required to understand the future ecological functioning of these important systems, and to predict whether feedback mechanisms are likely to regulate or exacerbate current climate change scenarios through environmentally and ecologically mediated changes to BVOC budgets at the ecosystem level. PMID:25311223

  5. Persistence of chlorinated hydrocarbon contamination in a California marine ecosystem

    SciTech Connect

    Young, D.R.; Gossett, R.W.; Heesen, T.C.

    1989-01-01

    Despite major reductions in the dominant DDT and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) input off Los Angeles (California, U.S.A.) in the early 1970s, the levels of these pollutants decreased only slightly from 1972 to 1975 both in surficial bottom sediments and in a flatfish bioindicator (Dover sole, Microstomus pacificus) collected near the submarine outfall. Concentrations of these pollutants in the soft tissues of the mussel Mytilus californianus, collected intertidally well inshore of the highly contaminated bottom sediments, followed much more closely the decreases in the outfall discharges. These observations suggest that contaminated sediments on the seafloor were the principal (although not necessarily direct) cause of the relatively high and persistent concentrations of DDT and PCB residues in tissues. The study indicated that residues of the higher-molecular-weight chlorinated hydrocarbons, such as DDT and PCB, can be highly persistent once released to coastal marine ecosystems and that their accumulation in surficial bottom sediments is the most likely cause of this persistence observed in the biota of the discharge zone.

  6. Meeting report: Methylmercury in marine ecosystems--from sources to seafood consumers.

    PubMed

    Chen, Celia Y; Serrell, Nancy; Evers, David C; Fleishman, Bethany J; Lambert, Kathleen F; Weiss, Jeri; Mason, Robert P; Bank, Michael S

    2008-12-01

    Mercury and other contaminants in coastal and open-ocean ecosystems are an issue of great concern globally and in the United States, where consumption of marine fish and shellfish is a major route of human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg). A recent National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-Superfund Basic Research Program workshop titled "Fate and Bioavailability of Mercury in Aquatic Ecosystems and Effects on Human Exposure," convened by the Dartmouth Toxic Metals Research Program on 15-16 November 2006 in Durham, New Hampshire, brought together human health experts, marine scientists, and ecotoxicologists to encourage cross-disciplinary discussion between ecosystem and human health scientists and to articulate research and monitoring priorities to better understand how marine food webs have become contaminated with MeHg. Although human health effects of Hg contamination were a major theme, the workshop also explored effects on marine biota. The workgroup focused on three major topics: a) the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in marine ecosystems, b) the trophic transfer and bioaccumulation of MeHg in marine food webs, and c) human exposure to Hg from marine fish and shellfish consumption. The group concluded that current understanding of Hg in marine ecosystems across a range of habitats, chemical conditions, and ocean basins is severely data limited. An integrated research and monitoring program is needed to link the processes and mechanisms of MeHg production, bioaccumulation, and transfer with MeHg exposure in humans. PMID:19079724

  7. CLANIMAE: Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on African Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verschuren, D.; André, L.; Mahy, G.; Cocquyt, C.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Gelorini, V.; Rumes, B.; Lebrun, J.; Bock, L.; Marchant, R.

    2009-04-01

    Global studies of historical land use focusing on the large-scale landscape change that can potentially affect global climate (via effects on surface albedo, aerosols, and the carbon cycle) have concluded that the impact of pre-colonial East African cultures on regional ecosystems was limited, due to very low mean population density. This contrasts with the paradigm in East African archaeology and paleoecology that the onset of anthropogenic deforestation started at least 2500 years ago, following the introduction of iron metallurgy by Bantu immigrants. This conflict highlights the present lack of real data on historical climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, which are eminently relevant to sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation in a future of continued population growth and global climate change. CLANIMAE responds to the urgent need of a correct long-term perspective to today's climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, by reconstructing simultaneously the histories of past climate change and of vegetation and water-quality changes over the last 2500 years, through multi-disciplinary analysis of dated lake-sediment records. The climate reconstructions integrate information on biological, geochemical and sedimentological indicators of past changes in the water balance of the study lakes, which cover the climatological gradient from (sub-)humid western Uganda to semi-arid eastern Kenya. Reconstruction of past terrestrial vegetation dynamics is based on analyses of fossil plant pollen and phytoliths, plus the fossil spores of fungi associated with the excrements of large domestic animals as indicators of lake use by pastoralists. The evolution of water quality through time is reconstructed using silicon isotopes in diatom algae as proxy indicator for past phytoplankton productivity, and paleoecological analyses of fossil diatoms and aquatic macrophytes, following calibration of diatom and macrophyte species

  8. Could Ecosystem Change over Amazonia Influence Climate over North America?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Arias Gomez, P. A.; Wang, H.

    2014-12-01

    Earth system model experiments suggest that ecosystem changes in the Northern Hemisphere could influence climate over the Southern Hemisphere, or vice versa. In reality, whether an ecosystem change could have a detectable influence on climate variability in remote regions is not clear. Direct validation of such an influence based on available climate records is not feasible largely because we cannot isolate the influences of ecosystems from more dominant sources of climate variability from ocean and atmosphere. However, our observational analysis suggests that the variability of wet season onset over the Amazonia, which is significantly influenced by evapotranspiration of the rainforest, could influence the demise of the North American monsoon. Such a remote influence appears to be carried out by the influence of the Amazonia rainfall on the cross-equatorial flow and latitudinal propagation of the atmospheric waves, which in turn, influence wind and moisture transport over the North American monsoon region. These results suggest that perhaps the future reduction of evapotranspiration due to CO2 fertilization and large-scale land use over the Amazonia will not only delay the wet season onset over this region, but also impact the demise of the North American monsoon.

  9. Marine Mammals and Climate Change in the Pacific Arctic: Impacts & Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have become a hallmark of climate change, but impacts to the marine ecosystem are poorly understood. As top predators, marine mammals must adapt to biological responses to physical forcing and thereby become sentinels to ecosystem variability and reorganization. Recent sea ice retreats have influenced the ecology of marine mammals in the Pacific Arctic sector. Walruses now often haul out by the thousands along the NW Alaska coast in late summer, and reports of harbor porpoise, humpback, fin and minke whales in the Chukchi Sea demonstrate that these temperate species routinely occur there. In 2010, satellite tagged bowhead whales from Atlantic and Pacific populations met in the Northwest Passage, an overlap thought precluded by sea ice since the Holocene. To forage effectively, baleen whales must target dense patches of zooplankton and small fishes. In the Pacific Arctic, bowhead and gray whales appear to be responding to enhanced prey availability delivered both by new production and advection pathways. Two programs, the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR), include tracking of marine mammal and prey species' responses to ecosystem shifts associated with sea ice loss. Both programs provide an integrated-ecosystem baseline in support of the development of a web-based Marine Mammal Health Map, envisioned as a component of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). An overarching goal is to identify ecological patterns for marine mammals in the 'new' Arctic, as a foundation for integrative research, local response and adaptive management.

  10. UV EFFECTS ON MARINE AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS. IN: PHOTOBIOLOGY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Authors present a review of the literature dealing with UV effects on marine and aquatic ecosystems. Topic headings include Direct Effects, Interactive Effects, Indirect Effects, Response Variability, and The Future.

  11. A probabilistic process model for pelagic marine ecosystems informed by Bayesian inverse analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Marine ecosystems are complex systems with multiple pathways that produce feedback cycles, which may lead to unanticipated effects. Models abstract this complexity and allow us to predict, understand, and hypothesize. In ecological models, however, the paucity of empirical data...

  12. Characterizing driver-response relationships in marine pelagic ecosystems for improved ocean management.

    PubMed

    Hunsicker, Mary E; Kappel, Carrie V; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Halpern, Benjamin S; Scarborough, Courtney; Mease, Lindley; Amrhein, Alisan

    2016-04-01

    Scientists and resource managers often use methods and tools that assume ecosystem components respond linearly to environmental drivers and human stressors. However, a growing body of literature demonstrates that many relationships are-non-linear, where small changes in a driver prompt a disproportionately large ecological response. We aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the relationships between drivers and ecosystem components to identify where and when non-linearities are likely to occur. We focused our analyses on one of the best-studied marine systems, pelagic ecosystems, which allowed us to apply robust statistical techniques on a large pool of previously published studies. In this synthesis, we (1) conduct a wide literature review on single driver-response relationships in pelagic systems, (2) use statistical models to identify the degree of non-linearity in these relationships, and (3) assess whether general patterns exist in the strengths and shapes of non-linear relationships across drivers. Overall we found that non-linearities are common in pelagic ecosystems, comprising at least 52% of all driver-response relation- ships. This is likely an underestimate, as papers with higher quality data and analytical approaches reported non-linear relationships at a higher frequency (on average 11% more). Consequently, in the absence of evidence for a linear relationship, it is safer to assume a relationship is non-linear. Strong non-linearities can lead to greater ecological and socioeconomic consequences if they are unknown (and/or unanticipated), but if known they may provide clear thresholds to inform management targets. In pelagic systems, strongly non-linear relationships are often driven by climate and trophodynamic variables but are also associated with local stressors, such as overfishing and pollution, that can be more easily controlled by managers. Even when marine resource managers cannot influence ecosystem change, they can use information

  13. Changes in Marine Environments and Responses of Ecosystem Dynamics in the East Asian Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogawa, Hiroshi; Saito, Hiroaki; Ju, Se-Jong

    2014-02-01

    At an international symposium on the marine systems of the Pacific region of East Asia, scientists concluded that changes in the ocean environment are having a significant effect on biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems and, consequently, on humans and the food supply. The meeting, the 6th China-Japan-Korea (CJK) Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research symposium, was held in Japan at the University of Tokyo.

  14. Tropical rainforest response to marine sky brightening climate engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill

    2015-04-01

    Tropical forests represent a major atmospheric carbon dioxide sink. Here the gross primary productivity (GPP) response of tropical rainforests to climate engineering via marine sky brightening under a future scenario is investigated in three Earth system models. The model response is diverse, and in two of the three models, the tropical GPP shows a decrease from the marine sky brightening climate engineering. Partial correlation analysis indicates precipitation to be important in one of those models, while precipitation and temperature are limiting factors in the other. One model experiences a reversal of its Amazon dieback under marine sky brightening. There, the strongest partial correlation of GPP is to temperature and incoming solar radiation at the surface. Carbon fertilization provides a higher future tropical rainforest GPP overall, both with and without climate engineering. Salt damage to plants and soils could be an important aspect of marine sky brightening.

  15. Dom Export from Coastal Temperate Bog Forest Watersheds to Marine Ecosystems: Improving Understanding of Watershed Processes and Terrestrial-Marine Linkages on the Central Coast of British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliver, A. A.; Giesbrecht, I.; Tank, S. E.; Hunt, B. P.; Lertzman, K. P.

    2014-12-01

    The coastal temperate bog forests of British Columbia, Canada, export high amounts of dissolved organic matter (DOM) relative to the global average. Little is known about the factors influencing the quantity and quality of DOM exported from these forests or the role of this terrestrially-derived DOM in near-shore marine ecosystems. The objectives of this study are to better understand patterns and controls of DOM being exported from bog forest watersheds and its potential role in near-shore marine ecosystems. In 2013, the Kwakshua Watershed Ecosystems Study at Hakai Beach Institute (Calvert Island, BC) began year-round routine collection and analysis of DOM, nutrients, and environmental variables (e.g. conductivity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen) of freshwater grab samples from the outlets of seven watersheds draining directly to the ocean, as well as near-shore marine samples adjacent to freshwater outflows. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) varied across watersheds (mean= 11.45 mg L-1, sd± 4.22) and fluctuated synchronously with seasons and storm events. In general, higher DOC was associated with lower specific UV absorbance (SUVA254; mean= 4.59 L mg-1 m-1, sd± 0.55). The relationship between DOC and SUVA254 differed between watersheds, suggesting exports in DOM are regulated by individual watershed attributes (e.g. landscape classification, flow paths) as well as precipitation. We are using LiDAR and other remote sensing data to examine watershed controls on DOC export. At near-shore marine sites, coupled CTD (Conductivity Temperature Depth) and optical measures (e.g. spectral slopes, slope ratios (SR), EEMs), showed a clear freshwater DOM signature within the system following rainfall events. Ongoing work will explore the relationship between bog forest watershed attributes and DOM flux and composition, with implications for further studies on biogeochemical cycling, carbon budgets, marine food webs, and climate change.

  16. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  17. The Action of Marine Climate on Some Polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornelia Butnaru, Mariana

    2007-04-01

    This article presents some studies referring to the structural changes of some polymers due to the action of marine climate. The marine climate refers to seas, oceans and lands under the action of sea weather. So, the marine climate can be extreme cold, tropical or extreme cold and tropical. In the marine climate, dust, radiation, sand and salt fog have important effects of medium on which the produces are exposed when they are stored, used or transported. The wind increases these effects. However, one of the most important effects, is the effect of humidity. For measurements we have selected those materials which are often aging by climatic factors like humidity, could, warm, dust and sand, radiations. We present the measurements and the results for PN50, PN70, PN80 elastomer rubbers used for gaskets resistant at oil environments. First the structure of the elastomers was analysed (IR measurements) with a spectrometer Equinox-55. Then, the samples were exposed on Agigea Station according to a test program. When we study the intermolecular process, an important role has the double link. The configuration of the double link relating to the position in the main chain in the lateraly groups, influence the oxidative process. Due to the marine climate, appear a lot of changes on the structure of polymers.

  18. Archaeology Meets Marine Ecology: The Antiquity of Maritime Cultures and Human Impacts on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erlandson, Jon M.; Rick, Torben C.

    2010-01-01

    Interdisciplinary study of coastal archaeological sites provides a wealth of information on the ecology and evolution of ancient marine animal populations, the structure of past marine ecosystems, and the history of human impacts on coastal fisheries. In this paper, we review recent methodological developments in the archaeology and historical ecology of coastal regions around the world. Using two case studies, we examine (a) a deep history of anthropogenic effects on the marine ecosystems of California's Channel Islands through the past 12,000 years and (b) geographic variation in the effects of human fishing on Pacific Island peoples who spread through Oceania during the late Holocene. These case studies—the first focused on hunter-gatherers, the second on maritime horticulturalists—provide evidence for shifting baselines and timelines, documenting a much deeper anthropogenic influence on many coastal ecosystems and fisheries than considered by most ecologists, conservation biologists, and fisheries managers.

  19. Climate Change Altered Disturbance Regimes in High Elevation Pine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Logan, J. A.

    2004-12-01

    Insects in aggregate are the greatest cause of forest disturbance. Outbreaks of both native and exotic insects can be spectacular events in both their intensity and spatial extent. In the case of native species, forest ecosystems have co-evolved (or at least co-adapted) in ways that incorporate these disturbances into the normal cycle of forest maturation and renewal. The time frame of response to changing climate, however, is much shorter for insects (typically one year) than for their host forests (decades or longer). As a result, outbreaks of forest insects, particularly bark beetles, are occurring at unprecedented levels throughout western North America, resulting in the loss of biodiversity and potentially entire ecosystems. In this talk, I will describe one such ecosystem, the whitebark pine association at high elevations in the north-central Rocky Mountains of the United States. White bark pines are keystone species, which in consort with Clark's nutcracker, build entire ecosystems at high elevations. These ecosystems provide valuable ecological services, including the distribution and abundance of water resources. I will briefly describe the keystone nature of whitebark pine and the historic role of mountain pine beetle disturbance in these ecosystems. The mountain pine beetle is the most important outbreak insect in forests of the western United States. Although capable of spectacular outbreak events, in historic climate regimes, outbreak populations were largely restricted to lower elevation pines; for example, lodgepole and ponderosa pines. The recent series of unusually warm years, however, has allowed this insect to expand its range into high elevation, whitebark pine ecosystems with devastating consequences. The aspects of mountain pine beetle thermal ecology that has allowed it to capitalize so effectively on a warming climate will be discussed. A model that incorporates critical thermal attributes of the mountain pine beetle's life cycle was

  20. Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Chris; Lowe, Jason; Liddicoat, Spencer; Betts, Richard

    2009-07-01

    Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures and sea level rise due to thermal expansion or the melting of large ice sheets, continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate-vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2∘C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.

  1. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  2. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson, Agneta

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4oC warming and 50-80% decreasing ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30% in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants. Salinity will decrease by about 2 units. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favoured by AOM while phytoplankton may become hampered. More trophic levels in the food web will increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as effects of anthrophogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach and encompass both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g. bacterial) processes.

  3. U.S. 2013 National Climate Assessment of Oceans and Marine Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doney, S. C.; Rosenberg, A.

    2012-12-01

    We will discuss the key findings from the Oceans and Marine Resources chapter of the U.S. 2013 National Climate Assessment. As a nation, we depend on the ocean for seafood, recreation and tourism, cultural heritage, transportation of goods, and increasingly, energy and other critical resources. The U.S. ocean Exclusive Economic Zone extends 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, spanning an area about 1.7 times the land area of the continental United States and encompassing waters along the U.S. east, west and Gulf coasts, around Alaska and Hawaii, and including the U.S. territories in the Pacific and Caribbean. This vast region is host to a rich diversity of marine plants and animals and a wide range of ecosystems from tropical coral reefs to sea-ice covered, polar waters in the Arctic. We will highlight the current state of knowledge on changing ocean climate conditions, such as warming, sea-ice retreat and ocean acidification, and how these may be impacting valuable marine ecosystems and the array of resources and services we derive from the sea now and into the future. We will also touch on the interaction of climate change impacts with other human factors including pollution and over-fishing.

  4. Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.

    2015-12-01

    The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030-2040) and the far future (2082-2099) are compared to the recent past (1983-2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production (netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

  5. The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.

    PubMed

    Gutt, Julian; Bertler, Nancy; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Buschmann, Alexander; Comiso, Josefino; Hosie, Graham; Isla, Enrique; Schloss, Irene R; Smith, Craig R; Tournadre, Jean; Xavier, José C

    2015-04-01

    A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (<1% area of the SO) are affected by glacier retreat and warming in the deeper euphotic layer. In the future, decrease in the sea-ice is expected to be widespread. Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to <1% for four and five overlapping factors. In the future, areas expected to be affected by 2 and 3 overlapping factors are equally large, including potential iceberg changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem. PMID:25369312

  6. Marine biogeography, climate change and societal needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krause, Dale C.; Angel, Martin V.

    Pelagic biogeography deals with the large scale distributional patterns of pelagic organisms in the world's oceans, their origins through evolution and the changes in ocean morphology during the geological past, and the factors which currently control and maintain them. The knowledge it generates has a wide variety of uses in science, both basic and applied, and in socio-economics. Its products include: (1) Distributional data compiled in data bases, maps and atlases; (2) Explanatory scientific and non-scientific publications on the distributions and their implications; (3) Standardisation of methodologies; (4) Trained specialists; (5) Advice to society on oceanic aspects of global resource management; and (6) Assessments of oceanic biodiversity in relation to the Biodiversity Convention. The immediate users of this knowledge include oceanographers in other disciplines, ecologists, applied scientists and engineers, resource managers, fishermen, environmentalists, teachers, international lawuers and policy-makers. At present the largest users are the natural resource managers seeking to optimise and to sustain the resource for which they are responsible. There is a considerable body of national and international legislation which is underpinned by biogeographical information. Similarly much of our understanding about past climate which is being used to predict future trends, is based on applying information on present-day distributional patterns to the interpretation of the fossil record in marine sediments. Global change, in the ocean, the atmosphere and on land, is strongly modulated by the feedback between marine organisms, nutrients and greenhouse gases. The marked coherence observed between the distributions of physical, chemical and biological patterns suggest that the process involved in this feedback are linked with pelagic community structure. Remote sensing of sea-surface properties and the heat content of the mixed-layer, offer considerable potential for

  7. Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society (CLICHE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weckström, J.; Korhola, A.; Väliranta, M.; Seppä, H.; Luoto, M.; Tuittila, E.-S.; Leppäranta, M.; Kahilainen, K.; Saarinen, J.; Heikkinen, H.

    2012-04-01

    The predicted climate warming has raised many questions and concerns about its impacts on the environment and society. As a respond to the need of holistic studies comprising both of these areas, The Academy of Finland launched The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA 2011-2014) in spring 2010 with the main aim to focus on the interaction between the environment and society. Ultimately 11 national consortium projects were funded (total budget 12 million EUR). Here we shortly present the main objectives of the largest consortium project "Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society" (CLICHE). The CLICHE consortium comprises eight interrelated work packages (treeline, diversity, peatlands, snow, lakes, fish, tourism, and traditional livelihoods), each led by a prominent research group and a team leader. The research consortium has three main overall objectives: 1) Investigate, map and model the past, present and future climate change-induced changes in central ecosystems of the European Arctic with unprecedented precision 2) Deepen our understanding of the basic principles of ecosystem and social resilience and dynamics; identify key taxa, structures or processes that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour, using analogues from the past (e.g. Holocene Thermal Maximum, Medieval Warm Period), experiments, observations and models 3) Develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change on local communities, traditional livelihoods, fisheries, and tourism industry, and promote sustainable development of local community structures and enhance the quality of life of local human populations. As the project has started only recently no final results are available yet. However, the fieldwork as well as the co-operation between the research teams has thus far been very successful. Thus, the expectations for the final outcome of the project

  8. Hidden persistence of salinity and productivity gradients shaping pelagic diversity in highly dynamic marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, M; Reglero, P; Álvarez-Berastegui, D; Torres, A P; Álvarez, I; Rodriguez, J M; Carbonell, A; Balbín, R; Alemany, F

    2015-03-01

    While large-scale patterns of pelagic marine diversity are generally well described, they remain elusive at regional-scale given the high temporal and spatial dynamics of biological and local oceanographic processes. We here evaluated whether the main drivers of pelagic diversity can be more pervasive than expected at regional scale, using a meroplankton community of a frontal system in the Western Mediterranean. We evidence that regional biodiversity in a highly dynamic ecosystem can be summarized attending to both static (bathymetric) and ephemeral (biological and hydrographical) environmental axes of seascape. This pattern can be observed irrespectively of the regional hydroclimatic scenario with distance to coast, salinity gradient and chlorophyll a concentration being the main and recurrent drivers. By contrast, their effect is overridden in common analyses given that different non-linear effects are buffered between years of contrasting scenarios, emerging the influence of secondary effects on diversity. We conclude that community studies may reveal hidden persistent processes when they take into account different functional effects related to hydroclimatic variability. A better understanding of regional dynamics of the pelagic realm will improve our capability to forecast future responses of plankton communities as well as impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. PMID:25617678

  9. Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, Jason; Icarus Allen, J.; Anderson, Thomas R.; Brewin, Robert; Butenschön, Momme; Harle, James; Huse, Geir; Lehodey, Patrick; Lindemann, Christian; Memery, Laurent; Salihoglu, Baris; Senina, Inna; Yool, Andrew

    2014-12-01

    It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

  10. The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

  11. Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.

    PubMed

    Rizzi, J; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Zabeo, A; Brigolin, D; Carniel, S; Pastres, R; Marcomini, A

    2016-01-30

    Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies. PMID:26152856

  12. Combined terrestrial and marine biomarker records from an Icelandic fjord: insights into Holocene climate drivers and marine/ terrestrial responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moossen, H. M.; Seki, O.; Quillmann, U.; Andrews, J. T.; Bendle, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Holocene climate change has affected human cultures throughout at least the last 4000 years (D'Andrea et al., 2011). Today, studying Holocene climate variability is important, both to constrain the influence of climate change on ancient cultures and to place contemporary climate change in a historic context. Organic geochemical biomarkers are an ideal tool to study how climatic changes have affected terrestrial and marine ecosystems, as a host of different biomarker based climate proxies have emerged over recent years. Applying the available biomarker proxies on sediment cores from fjordic environments facilitates the study of how climate has affected terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and how these ecosystems have interacted. Ìsafjardardjúp fjord in Northwest Iceland is an ideal location to study North Atlantic Holocene climate change because the area is very sensitive to changes in the oceanic and atmospheric current systems (Hurrell, 1995; Quillmann et al., 2010). In this study we present high resolution (1 sample/30 calibrated years) terrestrial and marine biomarker records from a 38 m sediment core from Ìsafjardardjúp fjord covering the Holocene. We reconstruct sea surface temperature variations using the alkenone derived UK'37 proxy. Air temperature changes are reconstructed using the GDGT derived MBT/CBT palaeothermometer. We use the average chain length (ACL) variability of n-alkanes derived from terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes to reconstruct changing precipitation regimes. The relationship between ACL and precipitation is confirmed by comparing it with the δD signature of the C29 n-alkane and soil pH changes inferred by the CBT proxy. The combined sea surface and air temperature and precipitation records indicate that different climate changing drivers were dominant at different stages of the Holocene. Sea surface temperatures were strongly influenced by the melting of the remaining glaciers from the last glacial maximum throughout the early

  13. Ecosystem Network Shifts As Indicators of Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwell, A. E.; Kumar, P.

    2014-12-01

    Ecosystem states evolve due to complex interactions over various space and time scales. Process networks, in which nodes are time series variables and directional links are measures of information transfer, provide a method to analyze an ecosystem in terms of feedbacks, information transfer, and synchronization. It has been shown using FLUXNET data and ecohydrological modeling that variables such as precipitation, soil temperature, soil moisture, and heat fluxes exhibit forcings and feedbacks that are altered during periods of climate extremes such as drought. In this study, we use methods to deal with short datasets to observe shifts in network behavior over hourly to daily timescales. We compute network properties including transfer entropy, mutual information, and net system transport. To test our methods, we first generate chaotic test networks of various sizes and connectivity structures. It is found that a single feedback between two nodes causes a "self-feedback" to be detected at both nodes, which propagates throughout the network causing complete connectivity at predictable timescales. Depending on the symmetry of feedbacks and overall connectivity, a network may partially or completely synchronize. We then apply our methods to evaluate short-term ecosystem responses to climate extremes in agricultural landscapes in Illinois. We use 30- minute flux tower data from Bondville, IL, and 1 to15-minute data from recently installed weather stations and flux tower in the Sangamon River watershed to analyze network structure before, during, and after rainfall events or dry periods. Simulations in MLCan, a plant-atmosphere-canopy model, are performed to incorporate unmeasured nodes involving photosynthesis and soil hydrology. We compare the structure of feedbacks, forcings, and synchronization to vegetation response as measured by LAI or NDVI, in addition to a comparison with our test networks. This type of analysis can identify the feedbacks and links critical for

  14. The marine ecosystem off Peru: What are the secrets of its fishery productivity and what might its future hold?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakun, Andrew; Weeks, Scarla J.

    2008-10-01

    The marine ecosystem located off the coast of central and northern Peru has stood as the “world’s champion” producer, by far, of exploitable fish biomass, generally yielding more than 20 times the tonnage of fishery landings produced by other comparable regional large marine ecosystems of the world’s oceans that operate under similar dynamic contexts and are characterized by comparable, or even greater, basic primary production. Two potentially contributing aspects are discussed from a framework of interregional comparative pattern recognition: (1) the advantageous low-latitude situation that combines strong upwelling-based nutrient enrichment with low wind-induced turbulence generation and relatively extended mean “residence times” within the favorable upwelling-conditioned near-coastal habitat and (2) the cyclic “re-setting” of the system by ENSO perturbations that may tend to interrupt malignant growth of adverse self-amplifying feedback loops within the nonlinear biological dynamics of the ecosystem. There is a developing scientific consensus that one of the more probable consequences of impending global climate changes will be a general slowing of the equatorial Pacific Walker Circulation and a consequent weakening of the Pacific trade wind system. Since the upwelling-favorable winds off Peru tend to flow directly into the Pacific southeast trade winds, a question arises as to the likely effect on the upwelling-producing winds that power the productivity of the regional coastal ecosystems of the Peru-Humboldt Current zone. It is argued that the effects will in fact be decoupled to the extent that upwelling-favorable winds will actually tend to increase off Peru. Data demonstrative of this decoupling are presented. A tendency for less intense El Niño episodes in the future is also suggested. These conclusions provide a framework for posing certain imponderables as to the future character of the Peruvian marine ecosystem and of the fisheries it

  15. Effects of solar UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and interactions with climate change.

    PubMed

    Häder, D-P; Kumar, H D; Smith, R C; Worrest, R C

    2007-03-01

    Recent results continue to show the general consensus that ozone-related increases in UV-B radiation can negatively influence many aquatic species and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., lakes, rivers, marshes, oceans). Solar UV radiation penetrates to ecological significant depths in aquatic systems and can affect both marine and freshwater systems from major biomass producers (phytoplankton) to consumers (e.g., zooplankton, fish, etc.) higher in the food web. Many factors influence the depth of penetration of radiation into natural waters including dissolved organic compounds whose concentration and chemical composition are likely to be influenced by future climate and UV radiation variability. There is also considerable evidence that aquatic species utilize many mechanisms for photoprotection against excessive radiation. Often, these protective mechanisms pose conflicting selection pressures on species making UV radiation an additional stressor on the organism. It is at the ecosystem level where assessments of anthropogenic climate change and UV-related effects are interrelated and where much recent research has been directed. Several studies suggest that the influence of UV-B at the ecosystem level may be more pronounced on community and trophic level structure, and hence on subsequent biogeochemical cycles, than on biomass levels per se. PMID:17344962

  16. GENIES/SimCLIM Tools to Support Climate Change Information and Marine Resource Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Urich, P.; Yin, C.; Kouwenhoven, P.; CLIMsystems Team

    2013-05-01

    Climate change will significantly impact the global environment, and the faster the change, the greater the risk of damage. The natural environment will be assaulted by increases in sea surface temperature and changes in the biogeochemical cycles of ocean ecosystems. Marine resource managers have begun to realize that the projected impacts of climate change in coastal and marine environments are full of uncertainties, creating enormous challenges when it comes to climate change response planning. CMIP5 GCMs produced a large amount of climate and ocean biogeochemical data for different climate change scenarios, which can provide indispensable information for marine resource planning and decision making. However, for end users, climate and ocean information needs to be processed to make it usable while applying robust scientific methods to make that processing acceptable. SimCLIM/GENIES software provides a comprehensive climate information, data management, and impact assessment platform. The software system consists of historical data and projections for atmospheric and oceanic variables, including air-temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sea surface temperature, ocean primary production, pH, pCO2, DIO, and DIC, with the potential for other data layers. These data are pre-processed using different downscaling and pattern scaling approaches, and then stored in a compact format with a very high compression ratio, which makes them more transferable. Users can carry out statistical and ensemble analyses with the software in order to better understand uncertainties. Within the software system, historical climate data, a climate change scenario generator, and impact assessment tools are all integrated into a single platform. They are policy-maker and end-user oriented and present climate information in a friendly and easily understandable manner with excellent spatial visualization tools. Moreover, the system provided and released an ArcGIS/marine add-in, which allows

  17. Tales from the Jungle: The Evolving Climate Services Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redmond, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    In 2001 the NRC Report "A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future" examined the state and trends of climate services. That report included a definition of this term that has lost no relevance: "The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers." The original entities delivering such services, at the state level, are represented by the American Association of State Climatologists (AASC). In 1986 the NOAA Regional Climate Center program was initiated, followed in 1994 by the NOAA Regional Climate Sciences and Assessments. Since 2010 we have seen the establishment of the USDI Climate Science Centers and the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, the NOAA Regional Climate Service Directors, and the USDA Regional Climate Hubs. The recent expansion of formal programs has essentially filled out the agency "niche space." Other non-governmental and private entities are also expanding into this space. The present profusion runs a risk of creating a perception of excessive duplication in some quarters, including those funding these enterprises. Collectively these activities form what can be thought of as an ecosystem of climate services. A certain amount of replication is desirable, healthy, and necessary, but beyond some point can be excessive unless the total capacity remains insufficient. Each component has come into existence for a different set of reasons. Since these components were invented by human beings, their subsequent evolution can in theory be guided by humans. The history and purpose of each component needs to be borne in mind, with capsule descriptions suitable for rapid delivery to the decision-makers who approve the support for the various components. Good communication among the components is therefore essential for a healthy and functional overall system. This in turn calls for the ability to adequately represent the role of each of those components, a purpose best informed through actual

  18. Climate change effects on groundwater dependent temperate forest ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Brolsma, R. J.; van Beek, R. L.; van Vliet, M. T.

    2008-12-01

    Models developed to predict the influence of changing climate on ecosystems often concentrate on vegetation in connection with soil moisture, but usually omit groundwater. However in temperate climate zones, groundwater can have a profound effect on the reaction of vegetation to climate change, because it strongly influences the spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture and therefore water and oxygen stress of vegetation. Here we focus on the qualitative and quantitative effects of climate change on the zonation of vegetation and groundwater dynamics along a hill slope. To study this we developed a fully coupled hydrological-vegetation model, for a groundwater influenced temperate forest ecosystem. The vegetation model is based on the carbon assimilation model of Farquhar et al. (1980) and the extension of Daly et al. (2004), which includes transpiration of vegetation and accounts for the response to low soil moisture content. We modified this model to account for vegetation response to high soil moisture contents due to high groundwater levels, and we extended the model to include light competition, phenology and vegetation growth. To simulate the hydrological system the saturated-unsaturated flow model by van Beek (2002) is used. The coupled model was first compared to measured semi-hourly flux tower data of H2O and CO2, showing good results. Than simulation runs of 1000 years were performed to study the effect of climate change on soil water, groundwater and vegetation. We performed simulation runs with competition between wet and dry adapted species under current conditions and after climate change. Meteorological time series for the 2100 climate (SRESA2) were obtained from downscaling 6 different regional climate model runs from the ENSEMBLES project with a stochastic weather generator (Kilby et al., 2007). Results show that in the zones were the groundwater system is close to the surface, climate change causes large shifts in vegetation zonation of the

  19. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wolken, Jane M.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Rupp, T. Scott; Chapin, Stuart III; Trainor, Sarah F.; Barrett, Tara M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; McGuire, A. David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hennon, Paul E.; Beever, Erik A.; Conn, Jeff S.; Crone, Lisa K.; D'Amore, David V.; Fresco, Nancy; Hanley, Thomas A.; Kielland, Knut; Kruse, James J.; Patterson, Trista; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Verbyla, David L.; Yarie, John

    2011-01-01

    The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates

  20. Physical processes mediating climate impacts in shelf sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschon, Momme; Daewel, Ute; Fach, Bettina; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    How global scale climate change might impact coastal and shelf seas is far from straightforward. A myriad of physical processes can potentially act as vectors transferring the larger scale oceanic and atmospheric variability and change to shelf sea physics, biogeochemistry and lower trophic level ecosystems. These act on a wide range of time scales, being strongly dependent on the prevailing conditions of an individual shelf sea basin. Examples of the physical processes include upper ocean warming, seasonal/permanent stratification, wind mixing, convective mixing, light climate, terrestrial input, circulation and ocean-shelf exchange. These potentially impact ecosystem processes such as primary production, plankton community structured, bloom timing, and mid-water production. However, different processes often act in a different sense and are not necessarily additive, leading to damping or amplification effects. During the MEECE project (www.meece.eu) we conducted a series of coordinated downscaled coupled physics-ecosystem model experiments to explore these issues. Here, we review the prevailing physical processes, contrasting five very different shelf sea regions: North Sea, Celtic seas, Baltic Sea, Black sea and Barents Sea, using results from three different model systems: POLCOMS-ERSEM, ECOSMO, BIMS-ECO. Using this ensemble of simulations, along with process sensitivity studies and multiple forcing studies, we are able to identify which physical processes are important in which region, and how they interact. This builds up a picture of contrasting vulnerability of these regions to different vectors of change.

  1. Coralline alga reveals first marine record of subarctic North Pacific climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Halfar, J.; Steneck, R.; Schone, B.; Moore, G.W.K.; Joachimski, M.; Kronz, A.; Fietzke, J.; Estes, James

    2007-01-01

    While recent changes in subarctic North Pacific climate had dramatic effects on ecosystems and fishery yields, past climate dynamics and teleconnection patterns are poorly understood due to the absence of century-long high-resolution marine records. We present the first 117-year long annually resolved marine climate history from the western Bering Sea/Aleutian Island region using information contained in the calcitic skeleton of the long-lived crustose coralline red alga Clathromorphum nereostratum, a previously unused climate archive. The skeletal ??18O-time series indicates significant warming and/or freshening of surface waters after the middle of the 20th century. Furthermore, the time series is spatiotemporally correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical El Nio??-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices. Even though the western Bering Sea/Aleutian Island region is believed to be outside the area of significant marine response to ENSO, we propose that an ENSO signal is transmitted via the Alaskan Stream from the Eastern North Pacific, a region of known ENSO teleconnections. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    PubMed

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  3. Effectiveness of marine protected areas in managing the drivers of ecosystem change: a case of Mnazi Bay Marine Park, Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Machumu, Milali Ernest; Yakupitiyage, Amararatne

    2013-04-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are being promoted in Tanzania to mitigate the drivers of ecosystem change such as overfishing and other anthropogenic impacts on marine resources. The effectiveness of MPAs in managing those drivers was assessed in three ecological zones, seafront, mangrove, and riverine of Mnazi Bay Marine Park, using Participatory Community Analysis techniques, questionnaire survey, checklist and fishery resource assessment methods. Eleven major drivers of ecosystem change were identified. Resource dependence had a major effect in all ecological zones of the park. The results indicated that the park's legislations/regulations, management procedures, and conservation efforts are reasonably effective in managing its resources. The positive signs accrued from conservation efforts have been realized by the communities in terms of increased catch/income, awareness and compliance. However, some natural and anthropogenic drivers continued to threaten the park's sustainability. Furthermore, implementation of resource use and benefit sharing mechanisms still remained a considerable challenge to be addressed. PMID:23307198

  4. Interplay between top-down, bottom-up, and wasp-waist control in marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, George L.; McKinnell, Skip

    2006-02-01

    In October 2004, the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) sponsored a symposium to consider “ Mechanisms that regulate North Pacific ecosystems: Bottom up, top down, or something else?” It sought to examine how marine populations, particularly the upper-trophic-level species, are regulated and to understand how energy flows through marine ecosystems. This introductory essay examines aspects of control mechanisms in pelagic marine ecosystems and some of the issues discussed during the symposium and in the 11 papers that were selected for this special issue. At global scales, the greatest biomass of fishes, seabirds and marine mammals tends to occur in regions of the world ocean with high primary production, e.g., the sub-arctic seas and up-welling regions of continental shelves. These large-scale animal distribution patterns are driven by food availability, not the absence of predators. At regional scales however, it is likely that current predation or past predation events have shaped local distributions, at least in marine birds and pinnipeds. Wasp-waist control occurs when one of the intermediate trophic levels is dominated by a single species, as occurs with small pelagic fishes of the world’s up-welling zones. Processes in these ecosystems may have features that result in a switch from bottom-up to top-down control.

  5. Embedding ecosystem services into the Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Illustrated by eutrophication in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Higgins, T. G.; Gilbert, A. J.

    2014-03-01

    The introduction of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its focus on an Ecosystem Approach places an emphasis on the human dimensions of environmental problems. Human activities may be the source of marine degradation, but may also be adversely affected should degradation compromise the provision of ecosystem services. The MSFD marks a shift away from management aiming to restore past, undegraded states toward management for Good Environmental Status (GEnS) based on delivery of marine goods and services. An example relating ecosystem services to criteria for Good Environmental Status is presented for eutrophication, a long recognised problem in many parts of Europe's seas and specifically targeted by descriptors for GEnS. Taking the North Sea as a case study the relationships between the eutrophication criteria of the MSFD and final and intermediate marine ecosystem services are examined. Ecosystem services are valued, where possible in monetary terms, in order to illustrate how eutrophication affects human welfare (economic externalities) through its multiple effects on ecosystem services.

  6. Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed

    Edeline, Eric; Groth, Andreas; Cazelles, Bernard; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J; Ohlberger, Jan; Asbjørn Vøllestad, L; Stenseth, Nils C; Ghil, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Evaluating the effects of climate variation on ecosystems is of paramount importance for our ability to forecast and mitigate the consequences of global change. However, the ways in which complex food webs respond to climate variations remain poorly understood. Here, we use long-term time series to investigate the effects of temperature variation on the intraguild-predation (IGP) system of Windermere (UK), a lake where pike (Esox lucius, top predator) feed on small-sized perch (Perca fluviatilis) but compete with large-sized perch for the same food sources. Spectral analyses of time series reveal that pike recruitment dynamics are temperature controlled. In 1976, expansion of a size-truncating perch pathogen into the lake severely impacted large perch and favoured pike as the IGP-dominant species. This pathogen-induced regime shift to a pike-dominated IGP apparently triggered a temperature-controlled trophic cascade passing through pike down to dissolved nutrients. In simple food chains, warming is predicted to strengthen top-down control by accelerating metabolic rates in ectothermic consumers, while pathogens of top consumers are predicted to dampen this top-down control. In contrast, the local IGP structure in Windermere made warming and pathogens synergistic in their top-down effects on ecosystem functioning. More generally, our results point to top predators as major mediators of community response to global change, and show that size-selective agents (e.g. pathogens, fishers or hunters) may change the topological architecture of food webs and alter whole ecosystem sensitivity to climate variation. PMID:26910776

  7. The Longterm Effects of Climate Change in European Shrubland Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmett, B.; Sowerby, A.; Smith, A.; EU Increase-infrastructure Project Team

    2011-12-01

    Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems. As climate change progresses the potential feedback from the biosphere to the atmosphere through changes in above and below-ground structure and functioning will become increasingly important. A series of replicate long term climate change experiments have been running for ca. 10 years in contrasting shrubland types across Europe to quantify; (a) the potential changes in carbon sequestration, GHG emissions and nutrient cycling, (b) the links to above and below-ground biodiversity, and (c) implications for water quality, in response to warming and repeated summer drought. Results indicate a relatively high rate of below-ground carbon allocation compared to forest systems and the importance of modifying factors such as past and current management, atmospheric deposition and soil type in determining resilience to change. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods and despite major winter rainfall) was observed in the repeated summer drought treatment, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. The persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels in the hydric, organic-rich UK system. As above-ground biomass, litter production and diversity was remarkably stable, changes in soil fungal communities and soil physical structure appear to be critical in driving changes in soil carbon fluxes in this organic-rich site. Current ecosystem models may under-estimate potential changes in carbon loss in response to climate change if changes in soil biological and physical properties are not included.

  8. Climate and Soil Interactions in the Context of Climate, Water, Ecosystems and Food Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatfield, J.

    2015-12-01

    Soil as source of ecosystem services is a major component of climate resilience. Two of the critical ecosystem services derived from soil are water and nutrient cycling. High quality soils improve the capacity to absorb and retain precipitation leading to enhanced water availability to plants which increases climate resilience. The trend towards increasing variability in precipitation requires that the soil be capable of maintaining infiltration rates under extreme precipitation events. Climate resilience will occur when crop productivity is stabilized under more variable climate regimes and dependent upon having adequate soil water supplies to each crop. There is a direct relationship between soil quality and crop productivity and as the soil resource is degraded there is a greater gap between attainable and actual productivity of crop. As the soil is improved there is enhanced nutrient cycling which in turn increases nutrient availability to the crop and food security. Soil becomes the foundation of sustainable ecosystems and enhancing the quality of soil will have a benefit to food and water resources. Improving the soil will benefit humankind through multiple impacts on water, food, and ecosystems.

  9. Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laufkötter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Hauck, Judith; John, Jasmin G.; Lima, Ivan D.; Seferian, Roland; Völker, Christoph

    2016-07-01

    Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11-94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6-3.8 times higher than their

  10. Quantifying Patterns of Change in Marine Ecosystem Response to Multiple Pressures

    PubMed Central

    Large, Scott I.; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D.; Link, Jason S.

    2015-01-01

    The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator’s variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response

  11. Biodiversity and the resistance and resilience of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against extreme climate events, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Although early results suggested that biodiversity might provide both resistance and resilience (sensu rapid recovery) of ecosystem productivity to drought, ...

  12. A holistic approach to marine eco-systems biology.

    PubMed

    Karsenti, Eric; Acinas, Silvia G; Bork, Peer; Bowler, Chris; De Vargas, Colomban; Raes, Jeroen; Sullivan, Matthew; Arendt, Detlev; Benzoni, Francesca; Claverie, Jean-Michel; Follows, Mick; Gorsky, Gaby; Hingamp, Pascal; Iudicone, Daniele; Jaillon, Olivier; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Krzic, Uros; Not, Fabrice; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Pesant, Stéphane; Reynaud, Emmanuel Georges; Sardet, Christian; Sieracki, Michael E; Speich, Sabrina; Velayoudon, Didier; Weissenbach, Jean; Wincker, Patrick

    2011-10-01

    The structure, robustness, and dynamics of ocean plankton ecosystems remain poorly understood due to sampling, analysis, and computational limitations. The Tara Oceans consortium organizes expeditions to help fill this gap at the global level. PMID:22028628

  13. An integrated approach to manage coastal ecosystems and prevent marine pollution effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcelli, Marco; Bonamano, Simone; Carli, Filippo Maria; Giovacchini, Monica; Madonia, Alice; Mancini, Emanuele; Molino, Chiara; Piermattei, Viviana; Manfredi Frattarelli, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    This work focuses an integrated approach based on Sea-Use-Map (SUM), backed by a permanent monitoring system (C-CEMS-Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System). This tool supports the management of the marine coastal area, contributing substantially to ecosystem benefits evaluation and to minimize pollution impacts. Within the Blue Growth strategy, the protection of marine ecosystems is considered a priority for the sustainable growth of marine and maritime sectors. To face this issue, the European MSP and MSFD directives (2014/89/EU; 2008/56/EC) strongly promote the adoption of an ecosystem-based approach, paying particular attention to the support of monitoring networks that use L-TER (long-term ecological research) observations and integrate multi-disciplinary data sets. Although not largely used in Europe yet, the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI), developed in 1979 by NOAA (and promoted by IMO in 2010), can be considered an excellent example of ecosystem-based approach to reduce the environmental consequences of an oil spill event in a coastal area. SUM is an ecosystem oriented cartographic tool specifically designed to support the sustainable management of the coastal areas, such as the selection of the best sites for the introduction of new uses or the identification of the coastal areas subjected to potential impacts. It also enables a rapid evaluation of the benefits produced by marine areas as well as of their anthropogenic disturbance. SUM integrates C-CEMS dataset, geomorphological and ecological features and knowledge on the coastal and maritime space uses. The SUM appliance allowed to obtain relevant operational results in the Civitavecchia coastal area (Latium, Italy), characterized by high variability of marine and coastal environments, historical heritage and affected by the presence of a big harbour, relevant industrial infrastructures, and touristic features. In particular, the valuation of marine ecosystem services based on

  14. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, T. M.; Demenocal, P.B.; Okahashi, H.; Linsley, B.K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Aller??d Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until ???8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  15. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes. PMID:26022318

  16. Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness.

    PubMed

    Eigenbrod, Felix; Gonzalez, Patrick; Dash, Jadunandan; Steyl, Ilse

    2015-01-01

    The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48×48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8×4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large-scale refugia is the priority. In human-dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large-scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network. PMID:25059822

  17. Predicting ecological changes on benthic estuarine assemblages through decadal climate trends along Brazilian Marine Ecoregions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernardino, Angelo F.; Netto, Sérgio A.; Pagliosa, Paulo R.; Barros, Francisco; Christofoletti, Ronaldo A.; Rosa Filho, José S.; Colling, André; Lana, Paulo C.

    2015-12-01

    Estuaries are threatened coastal ecosystems that support relevant ecological functions worldwide. The predicted global climate changes demand actions to understand, anticipate and avoid further damage to estuarine habitats. In this study we reviewed data on polychaete assemblages, as a surrogate for overall benthic communities, from 51 estuaries along five Marine Ecoregions of Brazil (Amazonia, NE Brazil, E Brazil, SE Brazil and Rio Grande). We critically evaluated the adaptive capacity and ultimately the resilience to decadal changes in temperature and rainfall of the polychaete assemblages. As a support for theoretical predictions on changes linked to global warming we compared the variability of benthic assemblages across the ecoregions with a 40-year time series of temperature and rainfall data. We found a significant upward trend in temperature during the last four decades at all marine ecoregions of Brazil, while rainfall increase was restricted to the SE Brazil ecoregion. Benthic assemblages and climate trends varied significantly among and within ecoregions. The high variability in climate patterns in estuaries within the same ecoregion may lead to correspondingly high levels of noise on the expected responses of benthic fauna. Nonetheless, we expect changes in community structure and productivity of benthic species at marine ecoregions under increasing influence of higher temperatures, extreme events and pollution.

  18. Effects of acidification on olfactory-mediated behaviour in freshwater and marine ecosystems: a synthesis

    PubMed Central

    Leduc, Antoine O. H. C.; Munday, Philip L.; Brown, Grant E.; Ferrari, Maud C. O.

    2013-01-01

    For many aquatic organisms, olfactory-mediated behaviour is essential to the maintenance of numerous fitness-enhancing activities, including foraging, reproduction and predator avoidance. Studies in both freshwater and marine ecosystems have demonstrated significant impacts of anthropogenic acidification on olfactory abilities of fish and macroinvertebrates, leading to impaired behavioural responses, with potentially far-reaching consequences to population dynamics and community structure. Whereas the ecological impacts of impaired olfactory-mediated behaviour may be similar between freshwater and marine ecosystems, the underlying mechanisms are quite distinct. In acidified freshwater, molecular change to chemical cues along with reduced olfaction sensitivity appear to be the primary causes of olfactory-mediated behavioural impairment. By contrast, experiments simulating future ocean acidification suggest that interference of high CO2 with brain neurotransmitter function is the primary cause for olfactory-mediated behavioural impairment in fish. Different physico-chemical characteristics between marine and freshwater systems are probably responsible for these distinct mechanisms of impairment, which, under globally rising CO2 levels, may lead to strikingly different consequences to olfaction. While fluctuations in pH may occur in both freshwater and marine ecosystems, marine habitat will remain alkaline despite future ocean acidification caused by globally rising CO2 levels. In this synthesis, we argue that ecosystem-specific mechanisms affecting olfaction need to be considered for effective management and conservation practices. PMID:23980246

  19. Effects of acidification on olfactory-mediated behaviour in freshwater and marine ecosystems: a synthesis.

    PubMed

    Leduc, Antoine O H C; Munday, Philip L; Brown, Grant E; Ferrari, Maud C O

    2013-01-01

    For many aquatic organisms, olfactory-mediated behaviour is essential to the maintenance of numerous fitness-enhancing activities, including foraging, reproduction and predator avoidance. Studies in both freshwater and marine ecosystems have demonstrated significant impacts of anthropogenic acidification on olfactory abilities of fish and macroinvertebrates, leading to impaired behavioural responses, with potentially far-reaching consequences to population dynamics and community structure. Whereas the ecological impacts of impaired olfactory-mediated behaviour may be similar between freshwater and marine ecosystems, the underlying mechanisms are quite distinct. In acidified freshwater, molecular change to chemical cues along with reduced olfaction sensitivity appear to be the primary causes of olfactory-mediated behavioural impairment. By contrast, experiments simulating future ocean acidification suggest that interference of high CO2 with brain neurotransmitter function is the primary cause for olfactory-mediated behavioural impairment in fish. Different physico-chemical characteristics between marine and freshwater systems are probably responsible for these distinct mechanisms of impairment, which, under globally rising CO2 levels, may lead to strikingly different consequences to olfaction. While fluctuations in pH may occur in both freshwater and marine ecosystems, marine habitat will remain alkaline despite future ocean acidification caused by globally rising CO2 levels. In this synthesis, we argue that ecosystem-specific mechanisms affecting olfaction need to be considered for effective management and conservation practices. PMID:23980246

  20. Ecosystem-based analysis of a marine protected area where fisheries and protected species coexist.

    PubMed

    Espinoza-Tenorio, Alejandro; Montaño-Moctezuma, Gabriela; Espejel, Ileana

    2010-04-01

    The Gulf of California Biosphere Reserve (UGC&CRDBR) is a Marine Protected Area that was established in 1993 with the aim of preserving biodiversity and remediating environmental impacts. Because remaining vigilant is hard and because regulatory measures are difficult to enforce, harvesting has been allowed to diminish poaching. Useful management strategies have not been implemented, however, and conflicts remain between conservation legislation and the fisheries. We developed a transdisciplinary methodological scheme (pressure-state-response, loop analysis, and Geographic Information System) that includes both protected species and fisheries modeled together in a spatially represented marine ecosystem. We analyzed the response of this marine ecosystem supposing that conservation strategies were successful and that the abundance of protected species had increased. The final aim of this study was to identify ecosystem-level management alternatives capable of diminishing the conflict between conservation measures and fisheries. This methodological integration aimed to understand the functioning of the UGC&CRDBR community as well as to identify implications of conservation strategies such as the recovery of protected species. Our results suggest research hypotheses related to key species that should be protected within the ecosystem, and they point out the importance of considering spatial management strategies. Counterintuitive findings underline the importance of understanding how the community responds to disturbances and the effect of indirect pathways on the abundance of ecosystem constituents. Insights from this research are valuable in defining policies in marine reserves where fisheries and protected species coexist. PMID:20204634

  1. Ecosystem-Based Analysis of a Marine Protected Area Where Fisheries and Protected Species Coexist

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espinoza-Tenorio, Alejandro; Montaño-Moctezuma, Gabriela; Espejel, Ileana

    2010-04-01

    The Gulf of California Biosphere Reserve (UGC&CRDBR) is a Marine Protected Area that was established in 1993 with the aim of preserving biodiversity and remediating environmental impacts. Because remaining vigilant is hard and because regulatory measures are difficult to enforce, harvesting has been allowed to diminish poaching. Useful management strategies have not been implemented, however, and conflicts remain between conservation legislation and the fisheries. We developed a transdisciplinary methodological scheme (pressure-state-response, loop analysis, and Geographic Information System) that includes both protected species and fisheries modeled together in a spatially represented marine ecosystem. We analyzed the response of this marine ecosystem supposing that conservation strategies were successful and that the abundance of protected species had increased. The final aim of this study was to identify ecosystem-level management alternatives capable of diminishing the conflict between conservation measures and fisheries. This methodological integration aimed to understand the functioning of the UGC&CRDBR community as well as to identify implications of conservation strategies such as the recovery of protected species. Our results suggest research hypotheses related to key species that should be protected within the ecosystem, and they point out the importance of considering spatial management strategies. Counterintuitive findings underline the importance of understanding how the community responds to disturbances and the effect of indirect pathways on the abundance of ecosystem constituents. Insights from this research are valuable in defining policies in marine reserves where fisheries and protected species coexist.

  2. Enabling the Integrated Assessment of Large Marine Ecosystems: Informatics to the Forefront of Science-Based Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Stefano, M.; Fox, P. A.; Beaulieu, S. E.; Maffei, A. R.; West, P.; Hare, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessments of large marine ecosystems require the understanding of interactions between environmental, ecological, and socio-economic factors that affect production and utilization of marine natural resources. Assessing the functioning of complex coupled natural-human systems calls for collaboration between natural and social scientists across disciplinary and national boundaries. We are developing a platform to implement and sustain informatics solutions for these applications, providing interoperability among very diverse and heterogeneous data and information sources, as well as multi-disciplinary organizations and people. We have partnered with NOAA NMFS scientists to facilitate the deployment of an integrated ecosystem approach to management in the Northeast U.S. (NES) and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). Our platform will facilitate the collaboration and knowledge sharing among NMFS natural and social scientists, promoting community participation in integrating data, models, and knowledge. Here, we present collaborative software tools developed to aid the production of the Ecosystem Status Report (ESR) for the NES LME. The ESR addresses the D-P-S portion of the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) management framework: reporting data, indicators, and information products for climate drivers, physical and human (fisheries) pressures, and ecosystem state (primary and secondary production and higher trophic levels). We are developing our tools in open-source software, with the main tool based on a web application capable of providing the ability to work on multiple data types from a variety of sources, providing an effective way to share the source code used to generate data products and associated metadata as well as track workflow provenance to allow in the reproducibility of a data product. Our platform retrieves data, conducts standard analyses, reports data quality and other standardized metadata, provides iterative

  3. Assessment of the impact of increased solar ultraviolet radiation upon marine ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandyke, H.; Worrest, R. C.

    1976-01-01

    Data was provided to assess the potential impact upon marine ecosystems if space shuttle operations contribute to a reduction of the stratospheric ozone layer. The potential for irreversible damage to the productivity, structure and/or functioning of a model estuarine ecosystem by increased UV-B radiation was established. The sensitivity of key community components (the primary producers) to increased UV-B radiation was delineated.

  4. Functional diversity of marine ecosystems after the Late Permian mass extinction event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, William J.; Twitchett, Richard J.

    2014-03-01

    The Late Permian mass extinction event about 252 million years ago was the most severe biotic crisis of the past 500 million years and occurred during an episode of global warming. The loss of around two-thirds of marine genera is thought to have had substantial ecological effects, but the overall impacts on the functioning of marine ecosystems and the pattern of marine recovery are uncertain. Here we analyse the fossil occurrences of all known benthic marine invertebrate genera from the Permian and Triassic periods, and assign each to a functional group based on their inferred lifestyle. We show that despite the selective extinction of 62-74% of these genera, all but one functional group persisted through the crisis, indicating that there was no significant loss of functional diversity at the global scale. In addition, only one new mode of life originated in the extinction aftermath. We suggest that Early Triassic marine ecosystems were not as ecologically depauperate as widely assumed. Functional diversity was, however, reduced in particular regions and habitats, such as tropical reefs; at these smaller scales, recovery varied spatially and temporally, probably driven by migration of surviving groups. We find that marine ecosystems did not return to their pre-extinction state, and by the Middle Triassic greater functional evenness is recorded, resulting from the radiation of previously subordinate groups such as motile, epifaunal grazers.

  5. The effect of widespread early aerobic marine ecosystems on methane cycling and the Great Oxidation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daines, Stuart J.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2016-01-01

    The balance of evidence suggests that oxygenic photosynthesis had evolved by 3.0-2.7 Ga, several hundred million years prior to the Great Oxidation ≈2.4 Ga. Previous work has shown that if oxygenic photosynthesis spread globally prior to the Great Oxidation, this could have supported widespread aerobic ecosystems in the surface ocean, without oxidising the atmosphere. Here we use a suite of models to explore the implications for carbon cycling and the Great Oxidation. We find that recycling of oxygen and carbon within early aerobic marine ecosystems would have restricted the balanced fluxes of methane and oxygen escaping from the ocean, lowering the atmospheric concentration of methane in the Great Oxidation transition and its aftermath. This in turn would have minimised any bi-stability of atmospheric oxygen, by weakening a stabilising feedback on oxygen from hydrogen escape to space. The result would have been a more reversible and probably episodic rise of oxygen at the Great Oxidation transition, consistent with existing geochemical evidence. The resulting drop in methane levels to ≈10 ppm is consistent with climate cooling at the time but adds to the puzzle of what kept the rest of the Proterozoic warm. A key test of the scenario of abundant methanotrophy in oxygen oases before the Great Oxidation is its predicted effects on the organic carbon isotope (δ13Corg) record. Our open ocean general circulation model predicts δC13org ≈ - 30 to -45‰ consistent with most data from 2.65 to 2.45 Ga. However, values of δC13org ≈ - 50 ‰ require an extreme scenario such as concentrated methanotroph production where shelf-slope upwelling of methane-rich water met oxic shelf water.

  6. Development of a decision support system to manage contamination in marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Dagnino, A; Viarengo, A

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, contamination and its interaction with climate-change variables have been recognized as critical stressors in coastal areas, emphasizing the need for a standardized framework encompassing chemical and biological data into risk indices to support decision-making. We therefore developed an innovative, expert decision support system (Exp-DSS) for the management of contamination in marine coastal ecosystems. The Exp-DSS has two main applications: (i) to determine environmental risk and biological vulnerability in contaminated sites; and (ii) to support the management of waters and sediments by assessing the risk due to the exposure of biota to these matrices. The Exp-DSS evaluates chemical data, both as single compounds and as total toxic pressure of the mixture, to compare concentrations to effect-based thresholds (TELs and PELs). Sites are then placed into three categories of contamination: uncontaminated, mildly contaminated, and highly contaminated. In highly contaminated sites, effects on high-level ecotoxicological endpoints (i.e. survival and reproduction) are used to determine risk at the organism-population level, while ecological parameters (i.e. alterations in community structure and ecosystem functions) are considered for assessing effects on biodiversity. Changes in sublethal biomarkers are utilized to assess the stress level of the organisms in mildly contaminated sites. In Triad studies, chemical concentrations, ecotoxicological high-level effects, and ecological data are combined to determine the level of environmental risk in highly contaminated sites; chemical concentration and ecotoxicological sublethal effects are evaluated to determine biological vulnerability in mildly contaminated sites. The Exp-DSS was applied to data from the literature about sediment quality in estuarine areas of Spain, and ranked risks related to exposure to contaminated sediments from high risk (Huelva estuary) to mild risk (Guadalquivir estuary and Bay of

  7. Climate Change Has Cascading Ecological Effects on Mountain Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fagre, D. B.

    2007-12-01

    Evidence that ecosystems of the Northern Rocky Mountains are responding to climate change abounds. Alpine glaciers, as iconic landscape features, are disappearing rapidly with some glaciers losing one half of their area in five years. A model developed in the 1990s to predict future rates of melt has proved too conservative when compared to recent measurements. The largest glaciers in Glacier National Park are almost 10 years ahead of schedule in their retreat. The cascading ecological effects of losing glaciers in high-elevation watersheds includes shifts in distribution and dominance of temperature-sensitive stream macroinvertebrates as stream volume dwindles (or disappears) in later summer months and water temperatures increase. Critical spawning areas for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) will be lost without the consistent supply of cold water that melting snow and ice provide and raise management questions regarding the efficacy of recovery efforts. Snowpacks are documented as becoming smaller and melting earlier in the spring, facilitating the invasion of subalpine meadows by trees and reducing habitat for current alpine wildlife. Even vital ecosystem disturbances, such as periodic snow avalanches that clear mountain slope forests, have been shown by tree-ring studies to be responsive to climatic trends and are likely to become less prevalent. Monitoring of high-elevation mountain environments is difficult and has largely been opportunistic despite the fact that these areas have experienced three times the temperature increases over the past century when compared to lowland environments. A system of alpine observatories is sorely needed. Tighter integration of mountains studies, and comparisons among diverse mountain systems of the western U.S. has been initiated by the USGS-sponsored Western Mountain Initiative and the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains to begin addressing this need.

  8. Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Hauck, J.; John, J. G.; Lima, I. D.; Seferian, R.; Völker, C.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralization of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5, and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralization is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralization or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralization. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11-94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6-3.8 times lower/higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver

  9. Changes in grassland ecosystem function due to extreme rainfall events: implications for responses to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is causing measurable changes in precipitation patterns. Most climate change scenarios forecast continuing increases in extreme precipitation patterns for North American terrestrial ecosystems, manifest as larger precipitation event...

  10. Mercury in Arctic Marine Ecosystems: Sources, Pathways, and Exposure

    PubMed Central

    Kirk, Jane L.; Lehnherr, Igor; Andersson, Maria; Braune, Birgit M.; Chan, Laurie; Dastoor, Ashu P.; Durnford, Dorothy; Gleason, Amber L.; Loseto, Lisa L.; Steffen, Alexandra; St. Louis, Vincent L.

    2014-01-01

    Mercury in the Arctic is an important environmental and human health issue. The reliance of Northern Peoples on traditional foods, such as marine mammals, for subsistence means that they are particularly at risk from mercury exposure. The cycling of mercury in Arctic marine systems is reviewed here, with emphasis placed on the key sources, pathways and processes which regulate mercury levels in marine food webs and ultimately the exposure of human populations to this contaminant. While many knowledge gaps exist limiting our ability to make strong conclusions, it appears that the long range transport of mercury from Asian emissions is an important source of atmospheric Hg to the Arctic and that mercury methylation resulting in monomethylmercury production (an organic form of mercury which is both toxic and bioaccumulated) in Arctic marine waters is the principal source of mercury incorporated into food webs. Mercury concentrations in biological organisms have increased since the onset of the industrial age and are controlled by a combination of abiotic factors (e.g., monomethylmercury supply), food web dynamics and structure, and animal behavior (e.g., habitat selection and feeding behavior). Finally, although some Northern Peoples have high mercury concentrations of mercury in their blood and hair, harvesting and consuming traditional foods has many nutritional, social, cultural and physical health benefits which must be considered in risk management and communication. PMID:23102902

  11. A comparison of biological trends from four marine ecosystems: Synchronies, differences, and commonalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Link, Jason S.; Stockhausen, William T.; Skaret, Georg; Overholtz, William; Megrey, Bernard A.; Gjøsæter, Harald; Gaichas, Sarah; Dommasnes, Are; Falk-Petersen, Jannike; Kane, Joseph; Mueter, Franz J.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2009-04-01

    Major features of four marine ecosystems were analyzed based on a broad range of fisheries-associated datasets and a suite of oceanographic surveys. The ecosystems analyzed included the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the Norwegian/Barents Seas in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. We examined survey trends in major fish abundances, total system fish biomass, and zooplankton biomasses. We standardized each time series and examined trends and anomalies over time, using both time series and cross-correlational statistical methods. We compared dynamics of functionally analogous species from each of these four ecosystems. Major commonalities among ecosystems included a relatively stable amount of total fish biomass and the importance of large calanoid copepods, small pelagic fishes and gadids. Some of the changes in these components were synchronous across ecosystems. Major differences between ecosystems included gradients in the magnitude of total fish biomass, commercial fish biomass, and the timing of major detected events. This work demonstrates the value of comparative analysis across a wide range of marine ecosystems, suggestive of very few but none-the-less detectable common features across all northern hemisphere ocean systems.

  12. Climate change impacts on stream carbon export from coastal temperate rainforest ecosystems in Alaska (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hood, E. W.

    2013-12-01

    Coastal temperate rainforests (CTR) in Alaska contain about 10% of the total carbon in the forests of the conterminous United States. CTR ecosystems span a large environmental gradient that ranges from icefields mantling the Coast Mountains to carbon-rich conifer forests along the coastal margin and within the islands of the Alexander Archipelago in the Gulf of Alaska. Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from Alaskan CTR ecosystems, which can exceed 2 Tg C yr-1, is large relative to other northern ecosystems as a result of high rates of specific discharge (~2.5 m yr-1) and an abundance of organic soils found in peatlands and forested wetlands. Runoff from glaciers, which are rapidly thinning and retreating, has also been shown to an important contributor to land-to-ocean fluxes of DOC in this region. Downscaled regional climate models suggest that CTR ecosystems in Alaska will become warmer and wetter in coming decades, with uncertain effects on riverine organic matter (OM) export. Changes in watershed OM export are likely to be driven by changes in both hydrology and the availability of OM in terrestrial source pools. However, the impacts of these climate driven changes will vary with watershed landcover across the continuum from icefields to coastal temperate forests. Expected hydrological perturbations include changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow associated with shifts in: 1) the extent and duration of seasonal snowcover and 2) the mass balance of glaciers and icefields in the Coast Mountains. The availability of OM for export along hydrologic flowpaths will likely be altered by increased soil temperatures and shifts in water table elevations during the summer/fall runoff season. This will be particularly true for organic carbon export from peatlands in which changes in temperature and oxygen availability can strongly impact rates of organic matter decomposition. This talk will explore how climate-driven changes in hydrology and

  13. Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Matthew J; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E; Thomas, Chris D

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators. PMID:26227623

  14. Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Matthew J.; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E.; Thomas, Chris D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators. PMID:26227623

  15. Mass Spectrometry-Based Metabolomics to Elucidate Functions in Marine Organisms and Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Goulitquer, Sophie; Potin, Philippe; Tonon, Thierry

    2012-01-01

    Marine systems are very diverse and recognized as being sources of a wide range of biomolecules. This review provides an overview of metabolite profiling based on mass spectrometry (MS) approaches in marine organisms and their environments, focusing on recent advances in the field. We also point out some of the technical challenges that need to be overcome in order to increase applications of metabolomics in marine systems, including extraction of chemical compounds from different matrices and data management. Metabolites being important links between genotype and phenotype, we describe added value provided by integration of data from metabolite profiling with other layers of omics, as well as their importance for the development of systems biology approaches in marine systems to study several biological processes, and to analyze interactions between organisms within communities. The growing importance of MS-based metabolomics in chemical ecology studies in marine ecosystems is also illustrated. PMID:22690147

  16. Utilizing Ecosystem Information to Improve Decision Support Systems for Marine Fisheries (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, F.; Chai, F.; Chao, Y.; Wells, B.; Safari Team

    2010-12-01

    Successful ecological forecasting of fishery yields has eluded resource managers for decades. However, recent advances in observing systems, computational power and understanding of ecosystem function offer credible evidence that the variability of the ocean ecosystem and its impact on fishery yield can be forecast accurately enough and with enough lead time to be useful to society. Advances in space-based real time sensors, high performance computing, very high-resolution physical models, and robust ecosystem theory make possible operational forecasts of both fish availability and ecosystem health. Accurate and timely forecasts can provide the information needed to maintain the long-term sustainability of fish stocks and protect the ecosystem of which the fish are an integral part, while maximizing social and economic benefits and preventing wasteful overinvestment of economic resources. Here we review progress in improving the decision support systems by forecasting two marine fisheries: 1) the coastal Peru small pelagic fishery and 2) the central California salmon fishery.

  17. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    SciTech Connect

    Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

  18. Modeling Complex Marine Ecosystems: An Investigation of Two Teaching Approaches with Fifth Graders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papaevripidou, M.; Constantinou, C. P.; Zacharia, Z. C.

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated acquisition and transfer of the modeling ability of fifth graders in various domains. Teaching interventions concentrated on the topic of marine ecosystems either through a modeling-based approach or a worksheet-based approach. A quasi-experimental (pre-post comparison study) design was used. The control group (n = 17)…

  19. Methylmercury in Marine Ecosystems: From Sources to Seafood Consumers -- A Work Group Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consumption of marine fish and shellfish is a major route of human exposure to methyl mercury. This paper is the result of a workshop by the Dartmouth Toxic Metals Research Program in November 2006 on "Fate and Bioavailability of Mercury in Aquatic Ecosystems and Effects on Human...

  20. Late Holocene interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel: inferences from a marine dust record offshore Senegal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, I.; Stuut, J.-B.; Mollenhauer, G.; Mulitza, S.; Zabel, M.

    2009-04-01

    Present-day climate in northwestern Africa strongly depends on the avaiability of water. At least since the Pliocene the Saharan Desert and the semiarid Sahel belt (tropical North Afrika) have been frequently affected by sudden shifts to more arid climate. The rate of change from arid to humid conditions is presently under heavy debate (e.g., deMenocal et al., 2001, Kröpelin et al., 2008). A recent example of abrupt droughts occurred in the early 70's and 80's of the last century. In this study we compare different high-resolution marine sediment records of Sahel climate variability from the Senegal mud belt, northwest Africa. Marine sediment cores show the variations of terrigenous input (both aeolian dust and fluvial matter) from the African continent. Due to their different distinctive grain-size distributions, aeolian dust and fluvial mud can be recognised and quantified in marine sediments (e.g., Stuut et al., 2002). Based on these variations in the grain-size distributions of the terrigenous sediment fraction, deconvolved with an end-member modelling algorithm (Weltje, 1997), are used to reconstruct rainfall variability and dust production on land for the last 4,000 years. References P. B. deMenocal, et al. (2001). Late Holocene Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Holocene. Science 292, 667 S. Kröpelin, et al. (2008) Response to Comment on "Climate-Driven Ecosystem Succession in the Sahara: The Past 6000 Years" Science 322, 1326c G. J. Weltje (1997) End-member modeling of compositional data: Numerical-statistical algorithms for solving the explicit mixing problem. Mathematical Geology 9, 4

  1. Consequences of natural upwelling in oligotrophic marine ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, J J

    1980-03-01

    One of the major environmental consequences of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) plans may be the artificial upwelling of nutrients to the surface waters of oligotrophic ecosystems. Within a 10 km/sup 2/ area, OTEC plants of 1000 MWe total capacity could upwell the same amount of nutrients as occurs naturally off Peru each day. The biological response to possible eutrophication by OTEC plants may not be similar to that within coastal upwelling ecosystems, however. Upwelling in offshore oceanic systems does not lead to increased primary production despite high nutrient content of the euphotic zone. Continuous grazing may not allow phytoplankton blooms to develop in oceanic upwelling systems to the proposed OTEC sites. At present this is a hypothesis to be tested before full evaluation of OTEC induced upwelling can be made.

  2. Climate impacts of geoengineering marine stratocumulus clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Andy; Haywood, Jim; Boucher, Olivier

    2009-05-01

    Theoretical potential geoengineering solutions to the global warming problem have recently been proposed. Here, we present an idealized study of the climate response to deliberately seeding large-scale stratocumulus cloud decks in the North Pacific, South Pacific, and South Atlantic, thereby inducing cooling via aerosol indirect effects. Atmosphere-only, atmosphere/mixed-layer ocean, and fully coupled atmosphere/ocean versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre model are used to investigate the radiative forcing, climate efficacy, and regional response of temperature, precipitation, and net primary productivity to such geoengineering. The radiative forcing simulations indicate that, for our parameterization of aerosol indirect effects, up to 35% of the radiative forcing due to current levels of greenhouse gases could be offset by stratocumulus modification. Equilibrium simulations with the atmosphere/mixed-layer ocean model, wherein each of the three stratocumulus sheets is modified in turn, reveal that the most efficient cooling per unit radiative forcing occurs when the South Pacific stratocumulus sheet is modified. Transient coupled model simulations suggest that geoengineering all three stratocumulus areas delays the simulated global warming by about 25 years. These simulations also indicate that, while some areas experience increases in precipitation and net primary productivity, sharp decreases are simulated in South America, with particularly detrimental impacts on the Amazon rain forest. These results show that, while some areas benefit from geoengineering, there are significant areas where the response could be very detrimental with implications for the practical applicability of such a scheme.

  3. Agricultural ecosystem effects on trace gases and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change is an issue that has been thrust to the forefront of scientific, political, and general community interest. In the span of this human generation, the earth's climate is expected to change more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of recorded history. Some of the changes will result from natural processes, beyond human control, but much of this change is subject to anthropogenic influence arising from processes that are only beginning to be understood. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric radiatively active trace gases are being inadvertently affected by fossil fuel combustion; but other activities of industry, agriculture, forestry, changing land-use practices, waste disposal, and transportation also affect the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The measured and projected changes of the atmospheric concentrations of radiatively active trace gases have been modeled and estimated to predict changes in the global climate. Accuracy and reliability of these predictions are the subject of considerable debate among scientists and other concerned individuals, groups, and governmental agencies throughout the world. The objective of this book is to provide a review of current knowledge on the measurement of radiatively active trace gases in agricultural ecosystems and the effect of agriculture on the atmospheric concentrations of these gases. This book is compiled from written papers presented at a symposium entitled, Agroecosystem Effects on Radiatively Important Trace Gases and Global Climate Change, held at the American Society of Agronomy Meetings in Denver, CO, 27 Oct.-1 Nov. 1991. Fourteen chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  4. Interactions of aquaculture, marine coastal ecosystems, and near-shore waters: A bibliography. Bibliographies and literature of agriculture (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Hanfman, D.T.; Coleman, D.E.; Tibbitt, S.J.

    1991-01-01

    The bibliography contains selected literature citations on the interactions of aquaculture and marine coastal ecosystems. The focus is on aquaculture effluents and their impact on marine coastal ecosystems and waterways as well as the impact of pollutants on aquaculture development. Factors affecting these issues include domestic and industrial wastes, thermal discharges, acid rain, heavy metals, oil spills, and microbial contamination of marine waters and aquatic species. Coastal zone management, environmenal impact of aquaculture, and water quality issues are also included in the bibliography.

  5. Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance.

    PubMed

    Pörtner, Hans O; Knust, Rainer

    2007-01-01

    A cause-and-effect understanding of climate influences on ecosystems requires evaluation of thermal limits of member species and of their ability to cope with changing temperatures. Laboratory data available for marine fish and invertebrates from various climatic regions led to the hypothesis that, as a unifying principle, a mismatch between the demand for oxygen and the capacity of oxygen supply to tissues is the first mechanism to restrict whole-animal tolerance to thermal extremes. We show in the eelpout, Zoarces viviparus, a bioindicator fish species for environmental monitoring from North and Baltic Seas (Helcom), that thermally limited oxygen delivery closely matches environmental temperatures beyond which growth performance and abundance decrease. Decrements in aerobic performance in warming seas will thus be the first process to cause extinction or relocation to cooler waters. PMID:17204649

  6. Climate change impact on peatland and forest ecosystems of Russia

    SciTech Connect

    Kondrasheva, N.Yu.; Kobak, K.I.; Turchinovich, I.Ye.

    1996-12-31

    Paleoclimatic and paleobotanic reconstructions allow a conclusion that ecosystems and natural zones significantly changed due to climate fluctuations. The average long-term carbon accumulation in peatlands of Russia was estimated as 45.6 mln tons of carbon per year. During the Holocene the rate of peat accumulation changed. During the Subboreal period the rate of peat accumulation gradually decreased to 17 gC/m2 yr, reaching its lowest value in the Subatlantic period. Apparently, the rate of peat accumulation decreased in Subboreal period due to sharp cooling and precipitation decrease. Future rates of peat accumulation might be higher than the present one. Forest ecosystems of north-western Russia also significantly changed during the Holocene. In Atlantic time the boundary between middle and south taiga was located 500 km northward compared to the present and broad-leaved forest occupied large areas. According to their forecast, a mean global air temperature increase by 1.4 C is expected to result in a considerable decrease in coniferous forest area and an increase in mixed and broad-leaved forest area.

  7. Introduction to CCE-LTER: Responses of the California Current Ecosystem to climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goericke, R.; Ohman, M. D.

    2015-02-01

    The California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research (CCE-LTER) site has been in existence since 2004. One of its primary objectives is to understand the response of the southern California Current ecosystem to climate forcing. The CCE-LTER site cooperates with the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) program and complements CalCOFI's work through more extensive observations, process studies, and a modeling program. This special issue is focused on the long-term observations made by the CCE-LTER and CalCOFI programs, describing and understanding long-term changes in the physical, chemical, and biotic environment in the region. The papers in this issue highlight the climatological conditions during recent years and employ modeling to diagnose the principal forcing of meridional currents and eddy transport, both of which affect biotic responses. Changes in source waters in the region, and altered flushing of the Santa Barbara Basin, are considered. Temporal variations in inherent optical properties and in higher trophic levels, including seabirds and marine mammals, are presented. Key methodological developments presented include the incorporation of subsurface phytoplankton and light distributions in order to improve remotely sensed measures of primary production, and the validation of multi-frequency acoustic estimates of mesopelagic fish biomass. Results also highlight significant spatial differences across the CCE-LTER region, including cross-shore trends in microbial assemblages, and glider-resolved frontal features and zones of mixing associated with abrupt topography. Alterations to the spatial structure of the pelagic ecosystem must also be considered when evaluating future climate-related changes.

  8. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota.

    PubMed

    Harvell, C Drew; Mitchell, Charles E; Ward, Jessica R; Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P; Ostfeld, Richard S; Samuel, Michael D

    2002-06-21

    Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact. PMID:12077394

  9. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harvell, C.D.; Mitchell, C.E.; Ward, J.R.; Altizer, S.; Dobson, A.P.; Ostfeld, R.S.; Samuel, M.D.

    2002-01-01

    Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

  10. Manatees as sentinels of marine ecosystem health: are they the 2000-pound canaries?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonde, R.K.; Aguirre, A.A.; Powell, J.

    2004-01-01

    The order Sirenia is represented by three species of manatees and one species of dugong distributed in tropical and subtropical regions of the world and considered vulnerable to extinction. The sentinel species concept is useful to identify indicators of the environment and may reflect the quality of health in marine ecosystems. The single species approach to evaluate ecological health may provide a series of “snap shots” of environmental changes to determine if animal, human, or ecosystem health may be affected. Under this concept, marine vertebrates may be good integrators of changes over space and time, and excellent sentinels of ecosystem health. Based on their life history, manatees may or may not be ideal sentinels, as they are robust, long-lived species and appear remarkably resilient to natural disease and the effects of human-related injury and trauma. These characteristics might be the result of an efficient and responsive immune system compared to other marine mammals. Although relatively immune to infectious agents, manatees face other potentially serious threats, including epizootic diseases and pollution while in large aggregations. Manatees can serve as excellent sentinels of harmful algal blooms due to their high sensitivity, specifically to brevetoxicosis, which has caused at least two major die-offs in recent times. Threats to manatees worldwide, such as illegal hunting and boat collisions, are increasing. Habitat is being lost at an alarming rate and the full effects of uncontrolled human population growth on the species are unknown. The manatee may serve as a sentinel species, prognosticating the deleterious effects of unhealthy marine and aquatic ecosystems on humans. We have identified a number of critical research needs and opportunities for transdisciplinary collaboration that could help advance the use of the sentinel species concept in marine ecosystem health and monitoring of disease emergence using our knowledge on these magnificent

  11. Projected climate change impacts to the North Sea marine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrum, Corinna

    2015-04-01

    Future climate change impacts to the North Sea marine system are driven by a combination of changes induced by the globally forced oceanic boundary conditions and the regional atmospheric and terrestrial changes. We reviewed the recent progress and the projected future change of the North Sea marine system as part of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and focussed on three major aspects, namely the change of (i) sea level, the (ii) hydrographic and circulation changes of the North Sea and the (iii) changes in lower trophic level dynamics, biogeochemistry and ocean acidification. In recent years more and more regional climate change assessments became available for the North Sea and new developments contributed important understanding on regional processes mediating climate change impacts in the North Sea. Important new knowledge on regional future sea level change was gained by improved understanding of processes contributing to global sea level rise during the last decade. Assessment of climate change impacts to hydrography, circulation and biogeochemistry has benefited from new and advanced downscaling methods. The large number of regional studies enables now a critical review of the current knowledge on climate change impacts on the North Sea and allows the identification of challenges, robust changes, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. The long term trends in the climate conditions are superposed on the natural modes of variability and separating these to give a clear anthropogenic climate change signal is one of the 'grand challenges' of climate change impact studies in marine regions and of particular relevance for North Sea. The impact of natural variability on future annual average steric sea level, sea surface temperature and ocean acidification is less dominant compared to the climate change signal and their projected changes for the North Sea, namely rising future sea level, increasing surface temperature and

  12. Climate Change Alters Seedling Emergence and Establishment in an Old-Field Ecosystem

    SciTech Connect

    Classen, Aimee T; Norby, Richard J; Campany, Courtney E; Sides, Katherine E; Weltzin, Jake

    2010-01-01

    In shaping how ecosystems respond to climatic change, ecosystem structure can dominate over physiological responses of individuals, especially under conditions of multiple, simultaneous changes in environmental factors. Ecological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem structure over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change alters succession remain unresolved. Here, we investigate effects of atmospheric and climatic change on seedling establishment, recognizing that small shifts in seedling establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future. Our 4-year experiment in an old-field ecosystem revealed that response of seedling emergence to different combinations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture depends on seed phenology, the timing of seed arrival into an ecosystem. We conclude that seed phenology is an important plant trait that can shape, and help predict, the trajectories of ecosystems under climatic change.

  13. Nutrient supply and mercury dynamics in marine ecosystems: A conceptual model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Celia Y.; Hammerschmidt, Chad R.; Mason, Robert P.; Gilmour, Cynthia C.; Sunderland, Elsie M.; Greenfield, Ben K.; Buckman, Kate L.; Lamborg, Carl H.

    2013-01-01

    There is increasing interest and concern over the impacts of mercury (Hg) inputs to marine ecosystems. One of the challenges in assessing these effects is that the cycling and trophic transfer of Hg are strongly linked to other contaminants and disturbances. In addition to Hg, a major problem facing coastal waters is the impacts of elevated nutrient, particularly nitrogen (N), inputs. Increases in nutrient loading alter coastal ecosystems in ways that should change the transport, transformations and fate of Hg, including increases in fixation of organic carbon and deposition to sediments, decreases in the redox status of sediments and changes in fish habitat. In this paper we present a conceptual model which suggests that increases in loading of reactive N to marine ecosystems might alter Hg dynamics, decreasing bioavailabilty and trophic transfer. This conceptual model is most applicable to coastal waters, but may also be relevant to the pelagic ocean. We present information from case studies that both support and challenge this conceptual model, including marine observations across a nutrient gradient; results of a nutrient-trophic transfer Hg model for pelagic and coastal ecosystems; observations of Hg species, and nutrients from coastal sediments in the northeastern U.S.; and an analysis of fish Hg concentrations in estuaries under different nutrient loadings. These case studies suggest that changes in nutrient loading can impact Hg dynamics in coastal and open ocean ecosystems. Unfortunately none of the case studies is comprehensive; each only addresses a portion of the conceptual model and has limitations. Nevertheless, our conceptual model has important management implications. Many estuaries near developed areas are impaired due to elevated nutrient inputs. Widespread efforts are underway to control N loading and restore coastal ecosystem function. An unintended consequence of nutrient control measures could be to exacerbate problems associated with Hg

  14. Chapter 2. Vulnerability of marine turtles to climate change.

    PubMed

    Poloczanska, Elvira S; Limpus, Colin J; Hays, Graeme C

    2009-01-01

    Marine turtles are generally viewed as vulnerable to climate change because of the role that temperature plays in the sex determination of embryos, their long life history, long age-to-maturity and their highly migratory nature. Extant species of marine turtles probably arose during the mid-late Jurassic period (180-150 Mya) so have survived past shifts in climate, including glacial periods and warm events and therefore have some capacity for adaptation. The present-day rates of increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated temperature changes, are very rapid; the capacity of marine turtles to adapt to this rapid change may be compromised by their relatively long generation times. We consider the evidence and likely consequences of present-day trends of climate change on marine turtles. Impacts are likely to be complex and may be positive as well as negative. For example, rising sea levels and increased storm intensity will negatively impact turtle nesting beaches; however, extreme storms can also lead to coastal accretion. Alteration of wind patterns and ocean currents will have implications for juveniles and adults in the open ocean. Warming temperatures are likely to impact directly all turtle life stages, such as the sex determination of embryos in the nest and growth rates. Warming of 2 degrees C could potentially result in a large shift in sex ratios towards females at many rookeries, although some populations may be resilient to warming if female biases remain within levels where population success is not impaired. Indirectly, climate change is likely to impact turtles through changes in food availability. The highly migratory nature of turtles and their ability to move considerable distances in short periods of time should increase their resilience to climate change. However, any such resilience of marine turtles to climate change is likely to be severely compromised by other anthropogenic influences. Development of coastlines may

  15. Ecosystem service provision: an operational way for marine biodiversity conservation and management.

    PubMed

    Cognetti, Giuseppe; Maltagliati, Ferruccio

    2010-11-01

    Since no extensive conceptual framework has been developed on the issues of ecosystem service (ES) and service provider (SP) in the marine environment, we have made an attempt to apply these to the conservation and management of marine biodiversity. Within this context, an accurate individuation of SPs, namely the biological component of a given ecosystem that supports human activities is fundamental. SPs are the agents responsible for making the ES-based approach operational. The application of these concepts to the marine environment should be based on an model different to the terrestrial one. In the latter, the basic model envisages a matrix of a human-altered landscape with fragments of original biodiversity; conversely, in the marine environment the model provides fragments where human activities are carried out and the matrix is represented by the original biodiversity. We have identified three main classes of ES provision: in natural, disturbed and human-controlled environments. Economic valuation of marine ESs is an essential condition for making conservation strategies financially sustainable, as it may stimulate the perceived need for investing in protection and exploitation of marine resources. PMID:20933248

  16. Matching biological traits to environmental conditions in marine benthic ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bremner, J.; Rogers, S. I.; Frid, C. L. J.

    2006-05-01

    The effects of variability in environmental conditions on species composition in benthic ecosystems are well established, but relatively little is known about how environmental variability relates to ecosystem functioning. Benthic invertebrate assemblages are heavily involved in the maintenance of ecological processes and investigation of the biological characteristics (traits) expressed in these assemblages can provide information about some aspects of functioning. The aim of this study was to establish and explore relationships between environmental variability and biological traits expressed in megafauna assemblages in two UK regions. Patterns of trait composition were matched to environmental conditions and subsets of variables best describing these patterns determined. The nature of the relationships were subsequently examined at two separate scales, both between and within the regions studied. Over the whole area, some traits related to size, longevity, reproduction, mobility, flexibility, feeding method, sociability and living habit were negatively correlated with salinity, sea surface temperature, annual temperature range and the level of fishing effort, and positively associated with fish taxon richness and shell content of the substratum. Between the two regions, reductions in temperature range and shell content were associated with infrequent relative occurrences of short-lived, moderately mobile, flexible, solitary, opportunistic, permanent-burrow dwelling fauna and those exhibiting reproductive strategies based on benthic development. Relationships between some traits and environmental conditions diverged within the two regions, with increases in fishing effort and shell content of the substratum being associated with low frequencies of occurrence of moderately mobile and moderately to highly flexible fauna within one region, but high frequencies in the other. These changes in trait composition have implications for ecosystem processes, with, for

  17. Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Cornwall, Christopher E; Eddy, Tyler D

    2015-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators. PMID:25354555

  18. Relationships among fisheries exploitation, environmental conditions, and ecological indicators across a series of marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Caihong; Large, Scott; Knight, Ben; Richardson, Anthony J.; Bundy, Alida; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Boldt, Jennifer; van der Meeren, Gro I.; Torres, Maria A.; Sobrino, Ignacio; Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Piroddi, Chiara; Diallo, Ibrahima; Jouffre, Didier; Mendes, Hugo; Borges, Maria Fatima; Lynam, Christopher P.; Coll, Marta; Shannon, Lynne J.; Shin, Yunne-Jai

    2015-08-01

    Understanding how external pressures impact ecosystem structure and functioning is essential for ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. We quantified the relative effects of fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions on ecological indicators derived from two different data sources, fisheries catch data (catch-based) and fisheries independent survey data (survey-based) for 12 marine ecosystems using a partial least squares path modeling approach (PLS-PM). We linked these ecological indicators to the total biomass of the ecosystem. Although the effects of exploitation and environmental conditions differed across the ecosystems, some general results can be drawn from the comparative approach. Interestingly, the PLS-PM analyses showed that survey-based indicators were less tightly associated with each other than the catch-based ones. The analyses also showed that the effects of environmental conditions on the ecological indicators were predominantly significant, and tended to be negative, suggesting that in the recent period, indicators accounted for changes in environmental conditions and the changes were more likely to be adverse. Total biomass was associated with fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions; however its association with the ecological indicators was weak across the ecosystems. Knowledge of the relative influence of exploitation and environmental pressures on the dynamics within exploited ecosystems will help us to move towards ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. PLS-PM proved to be a useful approach to quantify the relative effects of fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions and suggest it could be used more widely in fisheries oceanography.

  19. Dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem models: The paradox of use for living marine resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Link, J. S.; Ihde, T. F.; Harvey, C. J.; Gaichas, S. K.; Field, J. C.; Brodziak, J. K. T.; Townsend, H. M.; Peterman, R. M.

    2012-09-01

    To better manage living marine resources (LMRs), it has become clear that ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is a desired approach. To do EBFM, one of the key tools will be to use ecosystem models. To fully use ecosystem models and have their outputs adopted, there is an increasingly recognized need to address uncertainty associated with such modeling activities. Here we characterize uncertainty as applied to ecosystem models into six major factors, including: natural variability; observation error; inadequate communication among scientists, decision-makers and stakeholders; the structural complexity of the model(s) used; outcome uncertainty; and unclear management objectives. We then describe best practices to address each of these uncertainties as they particularly apply to ecosystem models being used in a LMR management context. We also present case studies to highlight examples of how these best practices have been implemented. Although we acknowledge that this work was compiled by ecosystem modelers in an LMR management context primarily for other ecosystem modelers, the principles and practices described herein are also germane for managers, stakeholders and other natural resource management communities. We conclude by emphasizing not only the need to address uncertainty in ecosystem models, but also the feasibility and benefits of doing so.

  20. Changing climate and endangered high mountain ecosystems in Colombia.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Daniel; Moreno, Hernán Alonso; Gutiérrez, María Elena; Zapata, Paula Andrea

    2008-07-15

    High mountain ecosystems are among the most sensitive environments to changes in climatic conditions occurring on global, regional and local scales. The article describes the changing conditions observed over recent years in the high mountain basin of the Claro River, on the west flank of the Colombian Andean Central mountain range. Local ground truth data gathered at 4150 m, regional data available at nearby weather stations, and satellite info were used to analyze changes in the mean and the variance, and significant trends in climatic time series. Records included minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and cloud characteristics. In high levels, minimum and maximum temperatures during the coldest days increased at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C/decade, whereas maximum temperatures during the warmest days increased at a rate of about 1.3 degrees C/decade. Rates of increase in maximum, mean and minimum diurnal temperature range reached 0.6, 0.7, and 0.5 degrees C/decade. Maximum, mean and minimum relative humidity records showed reductions of about 1.8, 3.9 and 6.6%/decade. The total number of sunny days per month increased in almost 2.1 days. The headwaters exhibited no changes in rainfall totals, but evidenced an increased occurrence of unusually heavy rainfall events. Reductions in the amount of all cloud types over the area reached 1.9%/decade. In low levels changes in mean monthly temperatures and monthly rainfall totals exceeded + 0.2 degrees C and - 4% per decade, respectively. These striking changes might have contributed to the retreat of glacier icecaps and to the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, as well as to the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires. Significant reductions in water supply, important disruptions of the integrity of high mountain ecosystems, and dramatic losses of biodiversity are now a steady menu of the severe climatic conditions experienced by these

  1. Experimental confirmation of multiple community states in a marine ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Petraitis, Peter S.; Methratta, Elizabeth T.; Rhile, Erika C.; Vidargas, Nicholas A.; Dudgeon, Steve R.

    2009-01-01

    Small changes in environmental conditions can unexpectedly tip an ecosystem from one community type to another, and these often irreversible shifts have been observed in semi-arid grasslands, freshwater lakes and ponds, coral reefs, and kelp forests. A commonly accepted explanation is that these ecosystems contain multiple stable points, but experimental tests confirming multiple stable states have proven elusive. Here we present a novel approach and show that mussel beds and rockweed stands are multiple stable states on intertidal shores in the Gulf of Maine, USA. Using broad-scale observational data and long-term data from experimental clearings, we show that the removal of rockweed by winter ice scour can tip persistent rockweed stands to mussel beds. The observational data were analyzed with Anderson's discriminant analysis of principal coordinates, which provided an objective function to separate mussel beds from rockweed stands. The function was then applied to 55 experimental plots, which had been established in rockweed stands in 1996. Based on 2005 data, all uncleared controls and all but one of the small clearings were classified as rockweed stands; 37% of the large clearings were classified as mussel beds. Our results address the establishment of mussels versus rockweeds and complement rather than refute the current paradigm that mussel beds and rockweed stands, once established, are maintained by site-specific differences in strong consumer control. PMID:19399520

  2. Experimental confirmation of multiple community states in a marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Petraitis, Peter S; Methratta, Elizabeth T; Rhile, Erika C; Vidargas, Nicholas A; Dudgeon, Steve R

    2009-08-01

    Small changes in environmental conditions can unexpectedly tip an ecosystem from one community type to another, and these often irreversible shifts have been observed in semi-arid grasslands, freshwater lakes and ponds, coral reefs, and kelp forests. A commonly accepted explanation is that these ecosystems contain multiple stable points, but experimental tests confirming multiple stable states have proven elusive. Here we present a novel approach and show that mussel beds and rockweed stands are multiple stable states on intertidal shores in the Gulf of Maine, USA. Using broad-scale observational data and long-term data from experimental clearings, we show that the removal of rockweed by winter ice scour can tip persistent rockweed stands to mussel beds. The observational data were analyzed with Anderson's discriminant analysis of principal coordinates, which provided an objective function to separate mussel beds from rockweed stands. The function was then applied to 55 experimental plots, which had been established in rockweed stands in 1996. Based on 2005 data, all uncleared controls and all but one of the small clearings were classified as rockweed stands; 37% of the large clearings were classified as mussel beds. Our results address the establishment of mussels versus rockweeds and complement rather than refute the current paradigm that mussel beds and rockweed stands, once established, are maintained by site-specific differences in strong consumer control. PMID:19399520

  3. Challenges for implementing the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in a climate of macroecological change.

    PubMed

    McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail

    2012-12-13

    Unprecedented basin-scale ecological changes are occurring in our seas. As temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations increase, the extent of sea ice is decreasing, stratification and nutrient regimes are changing and pH is decreasing. These unparalleled changes present new challenges for managing our seas, as we are only just beginning to understand the ecological manifestations of these climate alterations. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires all European Member States to achieve good environmental status (GES) in their seas by 2020; this means management towards GES will take place against a background of climate-driven macroecological change. Each Member State must set environmental targets to achieve GES; however, in order to do so, an understanding of large-scale ecological change in the marine ecosystem is necessary. Much of our knowledge of macroecological change in the North Atlantic is a result of research using data gathered by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, a near-surface plankton monitoring programme that has been sampling in the North Atlantic since 1931. CPR data indicate that North Atlantic and North Sea plankton dynamics are responding to both climate and human-induced changes, presenting challenges to the development of pelagic targets for achievement of GES in European Seas. Thus, the continuation of long-term ecological time series such as the CPR survey is crucial for informing and supporting the sustainable management of European seas through policy mechanisms. PMID:23129715

  4. Sources, factors, mechanisms and possible solutions to pollutants in marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Mostofa, Khan M G; Liu, Cong-Qiang; Vione, Davide; Gao, Kunshan; Ogawa, Hiroshi

    2013-11-01

    Algal toxins or red-tide toxins produced during algal blooms are naturally-derived toxic emerging contaminants (ECs) that may kill organisms, including humans, through contaminated fish or seafood. Other ECs produced either naturally or anthropogenically ultimately flow into marine waters. Pharmaceuticals are also an important pollution source, mostly due to overproduction and incorrect disposal. Ship breaking and recycle industries (SBRIs) can also release various pollutants and substantially deteriorate habitats and marine biodiversity. Overfishing is significantly increasing due to the global food crisis, caused by an increasing world population. Organic matter (OM) pollution and global warming (GW) are key factors that exacerbate these challenges (e.g. algal blooms), to which acidification in marine waters should be added as well. Sources, factors, mechanisms and possible remedial measures of these challenges to marine ecosystems are discussed, including their eventual impact on all forms of life including humans. PMID:23992682

  5. Tropical Marginal Seas: Priority Regions for Managing Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKinnon, A. David; Williams, Alan; Young, Jock; Ceccarelli, Daniela; Dunstan, Piers; Brewin, Robert J. W.; Watson, Reg; Brinkman, Richard; Cappo, Mike; Duggan, Samantha; Kelley, Russell; Ridgway, Ken; Lindsay, Dhugal; Gledhill, Daniel; Hutton, Trevor; Richardson, Anthony J.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical marginal seas (TMSs) are natural subregions of tropical oceans containing biodiverse ecosystems with conspicuous, valued, and vulnerable biodiversity assets. They are focal points for global marine conservation because they occur in regions where human populations are rapidly expanding. Our review of 11 TMSs focuses on three key ecosystems - coral reefs and emergent atolls, deep benthic systems, and pelagic biomes - and synthesizes, illustrates, and contrasts knowledge of biodiversity, ecosystem function, interaction between adjacent habitats, and anthropogenic pressures. TMSs vary in the extent that they have been subject to human influence - from the nearly pristine Coral Sea to the heavily exploited South China and Caribbean Seas - but we predict that they will all be similarly complex to manage because most span multiple national jurisdictions. We conclude that developing a structured process to identify ecologically and biologically significant areas that uses a set of globally agreed criteria is a tractable first step toward effective multinational and transboundary ecosystem management of TMSs.

  6. Large-scale impacts of climate change on tropical West African ecosystems over the past ~540,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosling, William; Miller, Charlotte; Kemp, David; Coe, Angela; Gilmour, Iain

    2016-04-01

    A paucity of empirical non-marine data means that uncertainty surrounds the impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in tropical regions. The sedimentary-fill of the Bosumtwi impact crater (Ghana) provides the longest Quaternary terrestrial archive of environmental change in Africa, spanning the last ~540,000 years. Here we present a reconstruction of vegetation biomes and moisture availability in tropical West Africa for the past ~540,000 years using pollen analysis and the nitrogen isotope composition of bulk organic matter preserved in sediments from Lake Bosumtwi. Variations in grass pollen abundance (0-99%) indicate abrupt transitions between savannah and woodland biomes. Coeval variations in the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter indicate that intervals of savannah expansion coincided with minimum lake-levels and low regional moisture availability. The observed changes responded to orbitally paced global climate variations on both glacial-interglacial and shorter timescales. Importantly, the magnitude and abruptness of ecosystem change revealed by our data exceeds that previously determined from marine records, demonstrating for the first time the true sensitivity of tropical regions to Quaternary climate change.

  7. Review of inorganic nitrogen transformations and effect of global climate change on inorganic nitrogen cycling in ocean ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Haryun

    2016-03-01

    Inorganic N transformations (nitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium) are regulated by various biogeochemical factors linked either by the supply of electron acceptors and donors or by competition for electron acceptors. This review considers both the microbial community related to each process and the technical methods used to measure each process rate. With this background knowledge, this article summarizes how global climate change through increased pCO2, ocean acidification, deoxygenation and anthropogenic N deposition will alter oceanic N cycling, and finally emphasizes the need for comprehensive research on inorganic N transformation in marine ecosystems.

  8. Protecting marine biodiversity to preserve ecosystem functioning: A tribute to Carlo Heip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, Peter; Warwick, Richard; Aller, Robert; Arvanitidis, Christos; Hewitt, Judi; Stal, Lucas; Vincx, Magda

    2015-04-01

    Carlo Heip was the highly respected Editor-In-Chief of the Journal of Sea Research until his untimely death on 15 February 2013. As a tribute, the Journal wished to organize a special volume in his honour, the scope of which would provide an overview of the current state of affairs and the future outlook of marine biodiversity, a field of research to which Carlo made a major contribution. The volume places special emphasis on how marine biodiversity links to ecosystem functioning. Authors were invited to address such issues as: Which ecosystem functions are vulnerable to loss of biodiversity and how is the relation causally structured? How do trophic and non-trophic networks in ecosystems function and how do they depend on biodiversity? What is the role of spatial structuring for biodiversity? What is the role of biodiversity in biogeochemical fluxes at different scales? What are the new frontiers in the study of marine biodiversity and how can functional aspects be integrated in them? In this approach we wanted to cover a broad range of organisms reflecting Carlo's interests, the whole marine area from coastal systems to the deep sea, and spatial scales from single locations to worldwide databases.

  9. Impacts of climate change on marine top predators: Advances and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobday, Alistair J.; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Evans, Karen; Nicol, Simon; Young, Jock W.; Weng, Kevin C.

    2015-03-01

    Oceanic top predators are the subject of studies by researchers under the international Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators (CLIOTOP) program. A wide range of data sets have shown that environmental conditions, such as temperature and marine productivity, affect the distribution and biological processes of these species, and thus the activities of the humans that depend on them. In this special issue, 25 papers arising from the 2nd CLIOTOP symposium, held in Noumea, New Caledonia in February 2013 report the importance of realistic physical descriptions of oceanic processes for climate change projections, demonstrate a wide range of predator responses to historical climate variability, describe new analytical approaches for understanding the physiology, behaviour and trophodynamics, and project future distributions for a range of species. Several contributions discuss the implications for conservation and fisheries and show that resolving ecosystem management challenges and conflicts in the face of climate change is possible, but will require attention by decision-makers to issues that are broader than their traditional mandate. In the coming years, an increased focus on the development of management options to reduce the impacts of climate change on top predators and their dependent industries is needed.

  10. Bioinvasion: a paradigm shift from marine to inland ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Jaiswal, Neeshma; Malhotra, Anshu; Malhotra, Sandeep K

    2016-06-01

    Anisakidosis is one of the most fearsome zoonotic food borne disease in aquaculture. The natural infections by anisakidoids or related variety in freshwater fish are not known, though sporadic experimental reports are available abroad (Butcher and Shamsi 2011). Invasive severity of anisakidoids in fish from Gangetic riverine ecosystems, i.e., in river Ganges at Fatehpur and Allahabad, as well as in river Yamuna at Allahabad, and molecular heterogeneity among these worms have been extensively investigated. The pathways of transmission of non-native alien species due to long distance migratory habits of Rita rita, man-made alterations including dredging in long stretches of the river bed of Ganges to facilitate ballast water transfer mechanism owing to the commercial ship movements between Haldia and Allahabad; and sudden water chemistry (salinity, hardness, alkalinity) alteration (due particularly to rainy period) oriented micro-fauna interchange are identified, and remedial measures suggested. PMID:27413303

  11. Benthic Marine Cyanobacterial Mat Ecosystems: Biogeochemistry and Biomarkers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DesMarais, David J.; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Cyanobacterial mats are complete ecosystems that can include processes of primary production, diagenesis and lithification. Light sustains oxygenic photosynthesis, which in turn provides energy, organic matter and oxygen to the community. Due to both absorption and scattering phenomena, incident light is transformed with depth in the mat, both in intensity and spectral composition. Mobile photo synthesizers optimize their position with respect to this light gradient. When photosynthesis ceases at night, the upper layers of the mat become reduced and sulfidic. Counteracting gradients of oxygen and sulfide combine to provide daily-contrasting environments separated on a scale of a few mm. The functional complexity of mats, coupled with the highly proximal and ordered spatial arrangement of biota, offers the potential for a staggering number of interactions. At a minimum, the products of each functional group of microorganisms affect the other groups both positively and negatively. For example, cyanobacteria generate organic matter (potential substrates) but also oxygen (a toxin for many anaerobes). Anaerobic activity recycles nutrients to the photosynthesizers but also generates potentially toxic sulfide. The combination of benefits and hazards of light, oxygen and sulfide promotes the allocation of the various essential mat processes between light and dark periods, and to various depths in the mat. Observations of mats have produced numerous surprises. For example, obligately anaerobic processes can occur in the presence of abundant oxygen, highly reduced gases are produced in the presence of abundant sulfate, meiofauna thrive at high sulfide concentrations, and the mats' constituent populations respond to environmental changes in complex ways. While photosynthetic bacteria dominate the biomass and productivity of the mat, nonphotosynthetic, anaerobic processes constitute the ultimate biological filter on the ecosystem's emergent biosignatures, including those

  12. Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the

  13. Global Sea Surface Temperature and Ecosystem Change Across the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veenstra, T. J. T.; Bakker, V. B.; Sangiorgi, F.; Peterse, F.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) (ca. 17 to 14 Ma) is generally considered as the warmest episode of the Neogene based on deep marine oxygen isotope records and terrestrial plant fossils. To date, however, reasonable resolution high-quality sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records spanning its onset are scarce at best. For the remainder of the MMCO, reliable SST records are absent from the tropics and very scarce in temperate and polar regions. This leaves the question if the MMCO was truly associated with global warming and if this warming was associated with biotic change. We use organic biomarker paleothermometry (Uk'37 and TEX86) to reconstruct SST across the MMCO at four locations along a pole-to-pole transect in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Additionally, we use marine palynology (mostly dinoflagellate cysts) to assess ecosystem change at these locations. This study includes the first tropical biomarker-based SST records of the MMCO. Together with new and existing SST records from higher latitudes and the corresponding palynological records, they provide new insights in the temporal and spatial development of the MMCO. Our results indicate that Mid-Miocene warming was most prominent in the Norwegian Sea, showed a more complex, perhaps upwelling-related pattern in a tropical location, and was small in the Southern Hemisphere.

  14. The Mar Piccolo of Taranto: an interesting marine ecosystem for the environmental problems studies.

    PubMed

    Cardellicchio, Nicola; Annicchiarico, Cristina; Di Leo, Antonella; Giandomenico, Santina; Spada, Lucia

    2016-07-01

    The National Project RITMARE (la Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE-Italian Research for the sea) started from 1 January 2012. It is one of the national research programs funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research. RITMARE is coordinated by the National Research Council (CNR) and involves an integrated effort of most of the scientific community working on marine and maritime issues. Within the project, different marine study areas of strategic importance for the Mediterranean have been identified: Among these, the coastal area of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy) was chosen for its different industry settlements and the relative impact on the marine environment. In particular, the research has been concentrated on the Mar Piccolo of Taranto, a complex marine ecosystem model important in terms of ecological, social, and economic activities for the presence also of extensive mussel farms. The site has been selected also because the Mar Piccolo area is a characteristic "on field" laboratory suitable to investigate release and diffusion mechanisms of contaminants, evaluate chemical-ecological risks towards the marine ecosystem and human health, and suggest and test potential remediation strategies for contaminated sediments. In this context, within the project RITMARE, a task force of researchers has contributed to elaboration a functioning conceptual model with a multidisciplinary approach useful to identify anthropogenic forcings, its impacts, and solutions of environmental remediation. This paper describes in brief some of the environmental issues related to the Mar Piccolo basin. PMID:26111753

  15. Interactions Between Climate Change, Fire and Invasive Plants in California Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keeley, J. E.

    2007-12-01

    Changes in fire regimes are predicted in many climate change scenarios. The types of changes are greatly affected by the fuel structure of the ecosystem and different trajectories of change are expected in surface fire regimes than in crown fire regimes. However, in the multi-factorial world of natural ecosystems, climate is only one of the drivers of future change and some of the known threats to ecosystem stability are expected to push the system over particular thresholds of tolerance very rapidly. Invasive species have been widely recognized as drivers of ecosystem change, often generating feedback effects that alter fuel structure and future fire behavior. Human demographic changes, and the concomitant changes in anthropogenic fire ignitions are an additional threat to future ecosystem stability. I will address how these factors might interact with climate change in ecosystems of very different fuel structure, including surface fire ponderosa pine forests and crown fire chaparral shrublands in California.

  16. [Impact of global climate change on agro-ecosystem: a review].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Guo-Ju; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Jing

    2007-08-01

    In global climate change, the most important ecological factors influencing agricultural production and agro-ecosystem are elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, enhanced air temperature, and changed precipitation, which mainly exert on crop output, crop growth, diseases and pests, agricultural water resources, and structure and function of agro-ecosystem. In past decades, global climate change already made great influences on our agriculture and agro-ecosystem, especially the agricultural production in arid regions of North China, and many of the influences were negative or adverse. This paper summarized the impact of global climate change on agricultural water resources, soil nutrients, crop growth and development, diseases and pests, weeds, food safety, and structure and function of agro-ecosystem. Aiming at the challenges brought about by the global climate change to the agricultural production and agro-ecosystem in China in 21st century, the key points and difficulties in future research were put forward. PMID:17974260

  17. Marine water quality under climate change conditions/scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Brigolin, Daniele; Carniel, Sandro; Pastres, Roberto; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The increase of sea temperature and the changes in marine currents are generating impacts on coastal waters such as changes in water biogeochemical and physical parameters (e.g. primary production, pH, salinity) leading to progressive degradation of the marine environment. With the main aim of analysing the potential impacts of climate change on coastal water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic (i.e. coastal water bodies of the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions, Italy). RRA integrates the outputs of regional models providing information on macronutrients (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen e reactive phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and temperature, etc., under future climate change scenarios with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. biotic index, presence and extension of seagrasses, presence of aquaculture). The presented approach uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the integration of stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the evaluation process. RRA outputs are hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and damage maps useful for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets in the considered region. Therefore, the main aim of this contribution is to apply the RRA methodology to integrate, visualize, and rank according to spatial distribution, physical and chemical data concerning the coastal waters of the North Adriatic Sea in order to predict possible changes of the actual water quality.

  18. How are climate and marine biological outbreaks functionally linked?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Marshall L.; Bonaventura, Joseph; Mitchell, Todd P.; Prospero, Joseph M.; Shinn, Eugene A.; Van Dolah, Frances; Barber, Richard T.

    2001-01-01

    Since the mid-1970s, large-scale episodic events such as disease epidemics, mass mortalities, harmful algal blooms and other population explosions have been occurring in marine environments at an historically unprecedented rate. The variety of organisms involved (host, pathogens and other opportunists) and the absolute number of episodes have also increased during this period. Are these changes coincidental? Between 1972 and 1976, a global climate regime shift took place, and it is manifest most clearly by a change in strength of the North Pacific and North Atlantic pressure systems. Consequences of this regime shift are: (1) prolonged drought conditions in the Sahel region of Africa; (2) increased dust supply to the global atmosphere, by a factor of approximately four; (3) increased easterly trade winds across the Atlantic; (4) increased eolian transport of dust to the Atlantic and Caribbean basins; and (5) increased deposition of iron-rich eolian dust to typically iron-poor marine regions. On the basis of well-documented climate and dust observations and the widely accepted increase in marine outbreak rates, this paper proposes that the increased iron supply has altered the micronutrient factors limiting growth of opportunistic organisms and virulence of pathogenic microbes, particularly in macronutrient-rich coastal systems.

  19. High abundances of cyanomyoviruses in marine ecosystems demonstrate ecological relevance.

    PubMed

    Matteson, Audrey R; Rowe, Janet M; Ponsero, Alise J; Pimentel, Tiana M; Boyd, Philip W; Wilhelm, Steven W

    2013-05-01

    The distribution of cyanomyoviruses was estimated using a quantitative PCR (qPCR) approach that targeted the g20 gene as a proxy for phage. Samples were collected spatially during a > 3000 km transect through the Sargasso Sea and temporally during a gyre-constrained phytoplankton bloom within the southern Pacific Ocean. Cyanomyovirus abundances were lower in the Sargasso Sea than in the southern Pacific Ocean, ranging from 2.75 × 10(3) to 5.15 × 10(4) mL(-1) and correlating with the abundance of their potential hosts (Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus). Cyanomyovirus abundance in the southern Pacific Ocean (east of New Zealand) followed Synechococcus host populations in the system: this included a decrease in g20 gene copies (from 4.3 × 10(5) to 9.6 × 10(3) mL(-1) ) following the demise of a Synechococcus bloom. When compared with direct counts of viruses, observations suggest that the cyanomyoviruses comprised 0.5 to >25% of the total virus community. We estimated daily lysis rates of 0.2-46% of the standing stock of Synechococcus in the Pacific Ocean compared with c. < 1.0% in the Sargasso Sea. In total, our observations confirm this family of viruses is abundant in marine systems and that they are an important source of cyanobacterial mortality. PMID:23240688

  20. Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

  1. The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amanda Staudt; Allison K. Leidner; Jennifer Howard; Kate A. Brauman; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Hansen, Lara J.; Paukert, Craig; Sabo, John L.; Solorzano, Luis A.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystems around the world are already threatened by land-use and land-cover change, extraction of natural resources, biological disturbances, and pollution. These environmental stressors have been the primary source of ecosystem degradation to date, and climate change is now exacerbating some of their effects. Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases. Understanding these interactions could be critically important in the design of climate adaptation strategies, especially because actions taken by other sectors (eg energy, agriculture, transportation) to address climate change may create new ecosystem stresses.

  2. Ecosystem sensitivity to climate warming: A modeling approach

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Warmer atmospheric temperatures will affect ecosystem functioning directly through changes in metabolic rate and tissue damage of organisms. Indirectly, increased temperatures can also affect ecosystem water balance with increased evapotranspiration (from bare-soil evaporation and transpiration) tha...

  3. Marine storminess in the Mediterranean in future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.

    2009-09-01

    This talk reviews the analysis that is presently available on marine storms, their climatology and change in future climate scenarios. The cyclones that are responsible for the storms are analyzed using a regional climate model simulations of present day (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100, A2 and B2 emission scenarios) and the differences between northern Europe and Mediterranean are discussed. In the A2 and B2 scenarios the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over the Eastern Mediterranean region with respect to present day conditions,. The number of cyclones decreases in future scenarios throughout Europe, except over the central Europe and Mediterranean in summer, where it increases. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. Wind-wave field changes are discussed considering a similar analysis. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean Sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  4. Climatically driven emissions of hydrocarbons from marine sediments during deglaciation

    PubMed Central

    Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J. P.; Valentine, D. L.; Yang, Z.; Reddy, C. M.; Nelson, R. K.; Behl, R. J.; Robert, C.; Beaufort, L.

    2006-01-01

    Marine hydrocarbon seepage emits oil and gas, including methane (≈30 Tg of CH4 per year), to the ocean and atmosphere. Sediments from the California margin contain preserved tar, primarily formed through hydrocarbon weathering at the sea surface. We present a record of variation in the abundance of tar in sediments for the past 32,000 years, providing evidence for increases in hydrocarbon emissions before and during Termination IA [16,000 years ago (16 ka) to 14 ka] and again over Termination IB (11–10 ka). Our study provides direct evidence for increased hydrocarbon seepage associated with deglacial warming through tar abundance in marine sediments, independent of previous geochemical proxies. Climate-sensitive gas hydrates may modulate thermogenic hydrocarbon seepage during deglaciation. PMID:16945904

  5. Assimilation of remotely-sensed diffuse attenuation data to improve the simulation of a marine ecosystem model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciavatta, Stefano; Torres, Ricardo; Martinez-Vicente, Victor; Smyth, Timothy; Dall'Olmo, Giorgio; Polimene, Luca; Allen, Icarus

    2014-05-01

    Biogeochemical processes in shelf seas and coastal areas can determine the health and productivity of local systems and are important terms of the global carbon budget. The quantitative characterization of the spatial-temporal evolution of biogeochemical variables in shelf-seas is thus relevant in the framework of marine system management and climate change studies In this work we evaluate, for the first time, whether the assimilation of remotely-sensed diffuse attenuation coefficient data into a marine ecosystem model can improve the simulation of key biogeochemical variables and processes in a shelf sea. A localized Ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate weekly SeaWiFS data of diffuse light attenuation coefficient, i.e. Kd(443), into an ecosystem model of the western English Channel, for the simulation of year 2006. The spatial distributions of (unassimilated) surface chlorophyll from SeaWiFS, and eighteen time series of biogeochemical and optical data measured weekly at the monitoring station L4 were used to evaluate the system performance. A comparative assimilation experiment was run by using SeaWiFS chlorophyll data. We found that Kd(443) assimilation reduced the root mean square error and improved the correlation with the assimilated satellite observations in the largest part area of the WEC. The error for the (unassimilated) chlorophyll tended to decrease as well, but the estimates deteriorated in some parts of the study area. Assimilation of Kd(443) provided better estimates of the (unassimilated) in situ data when compared with both the reference simulation and chlorophyll assimilation. Indeed, model RMSE and bias of the estimates decreased for more than a half of the variables, and the skill metrics resulted in general better for the assimilation of the optical data. Importantly, assimilation of Kd(443) impacted the simulation of biogeochemical fluxes and ecosystem processes (e.g. shifted the simulated food web towards the microbial loop), and in

  6. Australia: Climate-Ecosystem Variability and Impacts on Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gustafson, K. C.; Diabate, M.; Anyamba, A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability in Australia is largely driven by an atmospheric phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation (SO), which involves a see-saw like behavior between low and high pressure systems within the equatorial Pacific regions. The interaction of SO with abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) - El Niño - or abnormally low SSTs - La Niña ("anti-El Niño") - creates extreme drought or extreme flooding respectively throughout the Australian continent. These El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have significant impacts on Australia's landscape, ecosystems, agriculture production, and, as this report show, human health. The teleconnection between ENSO and human health is straight forward but not obvious. During La Niña years, when ENSO events are characterized by increased rainfall and consequential flooding, Australia's tropical, warm climate in addition to an associated increase in vegetation growth from the increased rainfall creates an ideal habitat for mosquito population increase. Certain species of Australian mosquitoes [Culux annulirostris] are carriers of Murray Valley Encephalitis (MVE) virus which is a rare but potentially fatal infection that attacks neurological and muscular functioning. It is hypothesized that a widespread increase in vegetation indicates an expansion of ideal mosquito production habitats and will translate to an increased risk of MVE contraction. The objective of this research is to show if a correlation exists between the ENSO-driven climate- and consequential ecosystem- changes and MVE outbreaks throughout Australia. To do so, this study makes use of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor operating on NASA's Terra satellite to obtain monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. It is assumed in this research that an anomalous increase in NDVI values - indicative of vegetation growth - occurs as a result of increased rainfall. Due to Australia's tropical positioning and

  7. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  8. Impacts of discarded plastic bags on marine assemblages and ecosystem functioning.

    PubMed

    Green, Dannielle Senga; Boots, Bas; Blockley, David James; Rocha, Carlos; Thompson, Richard

    2015-05-01

    The accumulation of plastic debris is a global environmental problem due to its durability, persistence, and abundance. Although effects of plastic debris on individual marine organisms, particularly mammals and birds, have been extensively documented (e.g., entanglement and choking), very little is known about effects on assemblages and consequences for ecosystem functioning. In Europe, around 40% of the plastic items produced are utilized as single-use packaging, which rapidly accumulate in waste management facilities and as litter in the environment. A range of biodegradable plastics have been developed with the aspiration of reducing the persistence of litter; however, their impacts on marine assemblages or ecosystem functioning have never been evaluated. A field experiment was conducted to assess the impact of conventional and biodegradable plastic carrier bags as litter on benthic macro- and meio-faunal assemblages and biogeochemical processes (primary productivity, redox condition, organic matter content, and pore-water nutrients) on an intertidal shore near Dublin, Ireland. After 9 weeks, the presence of either type of bag created anoxic conditions within the sediment along with reduced primary productivity and organic matter and significantly lower abundances of infaunal invertebrates. This indicates that both conventional and biodegradable bags can rapidly alter marine assemblages and the ecosystem services they provide. PMID:25822754

  9. Methylmercury in Marine Ecosystems: Spatial Patterns and Processes of Production, Bioaccumulation, and Biomagnification

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Celia; Amirbahman, Aria; Fisher, Nicholas; Harding, Gareth; Lamborg, Carl; Nacci, Diane; Taylor, David

    2008-01-01

    The spatial variation of MeHg production, bioaccumulation and biomagnification in marine food webs is poorly characterized but critical to understanding the links between sources and higher trophic levels such as fish that are ultimately vectors of human and wildlife exposure. This paper discusses both large and local scale processes controlling Hg supply, methylation, bioaccumulation and transfer in marine ecosystems. While global estimates of Hg supply suggest important open ocean reservoirs of MeHg, only coastal processes and food webs are known sources of MeHg production, bioaccumulation, and bioadvection. The patterns observed to date suggest that not all sources and biotic receptors are spatially linked and that physical and ecological processes are important in transferring MeHg from source regions to bioaccumulation in marine food webs and from lower to higher trophic levels. PMID:19015919

  10. Seabird diversity hotspot linked to ocean productivity in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Attrill, Martin J.; Becker, Peter H.; Egevang, Carsten; Furness, Robert W.; Grémillet, David; Kopp, Matthias; Lescroël, Amélie; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Peter, Hans-Ulrich; Phillips, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Upwelling regions are highly productive habitats targeted by wide-ranging marine predators and industrial fisheries. In this study, we track the migratory movements of eight seabird species from across the Atlantic; quantify overlap with the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) and determine the habitat characteristics that drive this association. Our results indicate the CCLME is a biodiversity hotspot for migratory seabirds; all tracked species and more than 70% of individuals used this upwelling region. Relative species richness peaked in areas where sea surface temperature averaged between 15 and 20°C, and correlated positively with chlorophyll a, revealing the optimum conditions driving bottom-up trophic effects for seabirds. Marine vertebrates are not confined by international boundaries, making conservation challenging. However, by linking diversity to ocean productivity, our research reveals the significance of the CCLME for seabird populations from across the Atlantic, making it a priority for conservation action. PMID:27531154

  11. Seabird diversity hotspot linked to ocean productivity in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Grecian, W James; Witt, Matthew J; Attrill, Martin J; Bearhop, Stuart; Becker, Peter H; Egevang, Carsten; Furness, Robert W; Godley, Brendan J; González-Solís, Jacob; Grémillet, David; Kopp, Matthias; Lescroël, Amélie; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Patrick, Samantha C; Peter, Hans-Ulrich; Phillips, Richard A; Stenhouse, Iain J; Votier, Stephen C

    2016-08-01

    Upwelling regions are highly productive habitats targeted by wide-ranging marine predators and industrial fisheries. In this study, we track the migratory movements of eight seabird species from across the Atlantic; quantify overlap with the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) and determine the habitat characteristics that drive this association. Our results indicate the CCLME is a biodiversity hotspot for migratory seabirds; all tracked species and more than 70% of individuals used this upwelling region. Relative species richness peaked in areas where sea surface temperature averaged between 15 and 20°C, and correlated positively with chlorophyll a, revealing the optimum conditions driving bottom-up trophic effects for seabirds. Marine vertebrates are not confined by international boundaries, making conservation challenging. However, by linking diversity to ocean productivity, our research reveals the significance of the CCLME for seabird populations from across the Atlantic, making it a priority for conservation action. PMID:27531154

  12. The links between ecosystem multifunctionality and above- and belowground biodiversity are mediated by climate

    PubMed Central

    Jing, Xin; Sanders, Nathan J.; Shi, Yu; Chu, Haiyan; Classen, Aimée T.; Zhao, Ke; Chen, Litong; Shi, Yue; Jiang, Youxu; He, Jin-Sheng

    2015-01-01

    Plant biodiversity is often correlated with ecosystem functioning in terrestrial ecosystems. However, we know little about the relative and combined effects of above- and belowground biodiversity on multiple ecosystem functions (for example, ecosystem multifunctionality, EMF) or how climate might mediate those relationships. Here we tease apart the effects of biotic and abiotic factors, both above- and belowground, on EMF on the Tibetan Plateau, China. We found that a suite of biotic and abiotic variables account for up to 86% of the variation in EMF, with the combined effects of above- and belowground biodiversity accounting for 45% of the variation in EMF. Our results have two important implications: first, including belowground biodiversity in models can improve the ability to explain and predict EMF. Second, regional-scale variation in climate, and perhaps climate change, can determine, or at least modify, the effects of biodiversity on EMF in natural ecosystems. PMID:26328906

  13. Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lazarus, David; Barron, John; Renaudie, Johan; Diver, Patrick; Türke, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂18O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂13C, and 20-0 Ma pCO2). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p2 were only moderately higher than today. Diversity is strongly correlated to both ∂13C and pCO2 over the last 15 my (for both: r>.9, detrended r>.6, all p<.001), but only weakly over the earlier Cenozoic, suggesting increasingly strong linkage of diatom and climate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.

  14. Cenozoic Planktonic Marine Diatom Diversity and Correlation to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Lazarus, David; Barron, John; Renaudie, Johan; Diver, Patrick; Türke, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂18O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂13C, and 20-0 Ma pCO2). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p<.001; detrended, r = .6, p = .01). Diatoms were 20% less diverse in the early late Miocene, when temperatures and pCO2 were only moderately higher than today. Diversity is strongly correlated to both ∂13C and pCO2 over the last 15 my (for both: r>.9, detrended r>.6, all p<.001), but only weakly over the earlier Cenozoic, suggesting increasingly strong linkage of diatom and climate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic

  15. Holocene climate dynamics, biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem variability in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmiedl, Gerhard; Adloff, Fanny; Emeis, Kay; Grimm, Rosina; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Möbius, Jürgen; Müller-Navarra, Katharina

    2013-04-01

    The past variability of biogeochemical processes and marine ecosystems of the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS) is documented in the form of organic-rich sapropels that occurred at northern hemisphere insolation maxima. In order to understand the processes leading from deglacial and Holocene climate variability to the formation of sapropel S1 via changed biogeochemical cycling in the EMS, we integrated results from global and regional Earth system model experiments with biogeochemical and micropaleontological proxy records. Our results suggest a high spatiotemporal variability of deep-water oxygenation and biogeochemical processes at the sea floor during the late glacial and early Holocene. Changes in trophic conditions of bathyal ecosystems along ocean margins are closely linked to the hydrology of the EMS borderlands; they reflect orbital and sub-orbital climate variations of the high northern latitudes and the African monsoon system. Local trophic conditions were particularly variable in the northern Aegean Sea as a response to changes in riverine runoff and Black Sea outflow. During the time of S1 deposition, average oxygen levels decreased exponentially with increasing water depth, suggesting a basin-wide shallowing of vertical convection superimposed by local signals. In the northernmost Aegean Sea, deep-water ventilation persisted during the early period of S1 formation, owing to temperature-driven local convection and the absence of low-salinity Black Sea outflow. At the same time, severe temporary dysoxia or even short anoxia occurred in the eastern Levantine basin at water depths as shallow as 900 m. This area was likely influenced by enhanced nutrient input of the Nile river that resulted in high organic matter fluxes and related high oxygen-consumption rates in the water column. In contrast, abyssal ecosystems of the Levantine and Ionian basins lack eutrophication during the early Holocene suggesting that enhanced productivity did not play a crucial role

  16. Evaluating Threats in Multinational Marine Ecosystems: A Coast Salish First Nations and Tribal Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Gaydos, Joseph K.; Thixton, Sofie; Donatuto, Jamie

    2015-01-01

    Despite the merit of managing natural resources on the scale of ecosystems, evaluating threats and managing risk in ecosystems that span multiple countries or jurisdictions can be challenging. This requires each government involved to consider actions in concert with actions being taken in other countries by co-managing entities. Multiple proposed fossil fuel-related and port development projects in the Salish Sea, a 16,925 km2 inland sea shared by Washington State (USA), British Columbia (Canada), and Indigenous Coast Salish governments, have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic and negatively impact natural resources. There is no legal mandate or management mechanism requiring a comprehensive review of the potential cumulative impacts of these development activities throughout the Salish Sea and across the international border. This project identifies ongoing and proposed energy-related development projects that will increase marine vessel traffic in the Salish Sea and evaluates the threats each project poses to natural resources important to the Coast Salish. While recognizing that Coast Salish traditions identify all species as important and connected, we used expert elicitation to identify 50 species upon which we could evaluate impact. These species were chosen because Coast Salish depend upon them heavily for harvest revenue or as a staple food source, they were particularly culturally or spiritually significant, or they were historically part of Coast Salish lifeways. We identified six development projects, each of which had three potential impacts (pressures) associated with increased marine vessel traffic: oil spill, vessel noise and vessel strike. Projects varied in their potential for localized impacts (pressures) including shoreline development, harbor oil spill, pipeline spill, coal dust accumulation and nearshore LNG explosion. Based on available published data, impact for each pressure/species interaction was rated as likely, possible or

  17. Ecosystem Services and Climate Change Considerations for Long Island (NY) Planning Post Hurricane Sandy

    EPA Science Inventory

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change enco...

  18. Basin-wide Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mekong ecosystems are under pressure from a number of "drivers", including rapid economic development, population growth, unsustainable resource use, and climate change. Ecological modeling can help assess vulnerability and impacts of these drivers on the Lower Mekong Basin.

  19. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, J. M.; Julius, S. H.; Weaver, C. P.

    2012-03-01

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change.

  20. CLIMAITE - a three factor climate change ecosystem manipulation experiment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikkelsen, T. N.; Beier, C.; Albert, K.; Ro-Poulsen, H.

    2007-12-01

    The Danish multi factorial climate change effects on vegetation experiment (Climaite) have now been conducted for two years on semi-natural grassland. The day time [CO2], night time temperature and precipitation (drought) have been altered, according to a regional climate change model for the year 2075, in a full factorial split plot design. The manipulated area for each treatment is 7 m2 and it is replicated 6 times. The CO2 and temperature treatments have been conducted continuously except for periods with snow cover. The CO2 is enhanced to 510 ppm via a FACE system based on concentrated CO2 released upwind under pressure. The control of the [CO2] varies with wind speed and irradiation, but during 50 percent of the fumigation period the target concentration was kept within +/-5 percent. The temperature treatment is conducted via infrared reflective curtains covering the plots during night time, and the warming of plants and soil depends of the day irradiation, night time wind speed and factors related to seasonality. In general, the air temperature is increased during night time with 1-2 C° and negligible during the day. The soil temperature in 5 cm depth is enhanced to 0.3 - 0.6 C° during night and day. The artificial summer droughts lasted about one month and differences in soil water content were developed over time. By the end of the treatment the èv content in the soil was as low as 0.06 m3 m-3 compared to 0.20 m3 m-3 in the control. Numerous physical and biological parameters in the grassland ecosystem have been measured and several are responding to the changed environment. After 9 months of exposure enhanced [CO2] stimulated the net photosynthesis (based on dry weight) in both of the domination plant species Calluna Vulgaris and Deschampsia flexuosa. When the plants were exposed to short term saturated [CO2] during gasexchange measurements the long term CO2 treated plants also had the highest photosynthesis rate, meaning that the plants were not

  1. Oceanic and Climate phasing analysis across Marine Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Glacial climate oscillated between cold stadial periods similar to the Last Glacial Maximum and warmer periods more similar to today from 25,000 to 60,000 years BP, an envelop of time referred to as marine isotope stage three (MIS3). The sudden warmings (Dansgaard-Oeschger events) and ice sheet surges (Heinrich events) have long captured researchers' attention as a means of exploring significant perturbations to the climate system. The climate dynamics associated with these events have been recently elucidated throughhigh-resolution analysis of ice and sediment core archives. In particular, it has been recently demonstrated through synchronization of Greenlandic and Antarctic ice cores that abrupt climate events propagated from the Northern to Southern hemisphere. Likewise, during Heinrich events ice rafted detritus appeared in the Northern North Atlantic generally after cold stadial conditions had already been established. These results indict the ocean's conveyor as the vehicle hemispheric partitioning heat across these events. Here we test the phased response of multiple paleoproxies sensitive to circulation across these abrupt climate events through all of MIS3. Through correlation analysis of multiple paleoproxy records generated from a high accumulation sediment core taken from the Bermuda Rise, we examine the phase relationship of high latitude climate records with the kinematic circulation proxy Pa/Th, benthic d13C and d18O, SST, d18Osw, CaCO3 content, 230Th-normalized bulk and component fluxes in order to infer the sequence of change across these abrupt millennial events. We find that shifts in water mass composition precede increases in temperatures across the identified time interval, while the export of Pa relative to Th increases in tandem with changes in with Bermuda Rise SST estimates during warmings, but lags during cooling. Rapid shifts in thorium normalized carbonate flux supply secondary evidence for changes in preservation accompanying changes

  2. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam, III; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE 2001: CHAP. 5: ECOSYSTEMS AND THEIR GOODS AND SERVICES

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ecosystems are subject to many pressures (e.g., land-use change, resource demands, population changes); their extent and pattern of distribution is changing, and landscapes are becoming more fragmented. Climate change constitutes an additional pressure that could change or endanger ecosystems and th...

  4. CHARACTERIZE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND CHANGES IN CLIMATE, UV, AND LAND USE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessments of the long-term impacts of global changes in climate, ultraviolet (UV) radiation and land use on ecosystems require scientific data, concepts and models that describe the responses of ecosystem health to stresses related to the changes as well as information and mode...

  5. Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V; Cohen, Erika C; McNulty, Steven G; Aldridge, Heather D; Zhang, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services. PMID:27100360

  6. Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate

    PubMed Central

    Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; McNulty, Steven G.; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhang, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m−2 yr−1 (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr−1 (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr−1). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services. PMID:27100360

  7. Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; McNulty, Steven G.; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhang, Yang

    2016-04-01

    The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m‑2 yr‑1 (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr‑1 (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr‑1). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

  8. IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research: Support of Ocean Carbon Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rimetz-Planchon, J.; Gattuso, J.; Maddison, L.; Bakker, D. C.; Gruber, N.

    2011-12-01

    IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research), co-sponsored by SCOR (Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research) and IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme), coordinates research that focuses on understanding and predicting changes in oceanic food webs and biogeochemical cycles that arise from global change. An integral part of this overall goal is to understand the marine carbon cycle, with emphasis on changes that may occur as a result of a changing climate, increased atmospheric CO2 levels and/or reduced oceanic pH. To address these key ocean carbon issues, IMBER and SOLAS (Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study), formed the joint SOLAS-IMBER Carbon, or SIC Working Group. The SIC Working Group activities are organised into three sub-groups. Sub-group 1 (Surface Ocean Systems) focuses on synthesis, instrumentation and technology development, VOS (Voluntary Observing Ships) and mixed layer sampling strategies. The group contributed to the development of SOCAT (Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas, www.socat.info), a global compilation of underway surface water fCO2 (fugacity of CO2) data in common format. It includes 6.3 million measurements from 1767 cruises from 1968 and 2008 by more than 10 countries. SOCAT will be publically available and will serve a wide range of user communities. Its public release is planned for September 2011. SOCAT is strongly supported by IOCCP and CARBOOCEAN. Sub-group 2 (Interior Ocean Carbon Storage) covers inventory and observations, natural variability, transformation and interaction with modelling. It coordinated a review of vulnerabilities of the decadal variations of the interior ocean carbon and oxygen cycle. It has also developed a plan to add dissolved oxygen sensors to the ARGO float program in order to address the expected loss of oxygen as a result of ocean warming. The group also focuses on the global synthesis of ocean interior carbon observations to determine the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 since

  9. Microbial processes in marine ecosystem models: state of the art and future prospective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polimene, L.; Butenschon, M.; Blackford, J.; Allen, I.

    2012-12-01

    Heterotrophic bacteria play a key role in the marine biogeochemistry being the main consumer of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the main producer of carbon dioxide (CO2) by respiration. Quantifying the carbon and energy fluxes within bacteria (i.e. production, respiration, overflow metabolism etc.) is therefore crucial for the assessment of the global ocean carbon and nutrient cycles. Consequently, the description of bacteria dynamic in ecosystem models is a key (although challenging) issue which cannot be overlooked if we want to properly simulate the marine environment. We present an overview of the microbial processes described in the European Sea Regional Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), a state of the art biogeochemical model resolving carbon and nutrient cycles (N, P, Si and Fe) within the low trophic levels (up to mesozooplankton) of the marine ecosystem. The description of the theoretical assumptions and philosophy underpinning the ERSEM bacteria sub-model will be followed by the presentation of some case studies highlighting the relevance of resolving microbial processes in the simulation of ecosystem dynamics at a local scale. Recent results concerning the implementation of ERSEM on a global ocean domain will be also presented. This latter exercise includes a comparison between simulations carried out with the full bacteria sub-model and simulations carried out with an implicit parameterization of bacterial activity. The results strongly underline the importance of explicitly resolved bacteria in the simulation of global carbon fluxes. Finally, a summary of the future developments along with issues still open on the topic will be presented and discussed.

  10. Multi-proxy reconstructions and the power of integration across marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, P. J.

    2011-12-01

    Over the past decade, dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) techniques have been increasingly applied to growth increments of various bivalve, fish, and coral species. In particular, the use of crossdating ensures that all increments in a dataset have assigned the correct calendar year of formation and that the resulting chronology is exactly placed in time. Such temporal alignment facilitates direct comparisons among chronologies that span diverse taxa and ecosystems, illustrating the pervasive, synchronizing influence of climate from alpine forests to the continental slope. Such an approach can be particularly beneficial to reconstructions in that each species captures climate signals from its unique 'perspective' of life history and habitat. For example, combinations of tree-ring data and chronologies for the long-lived bivalve Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa) capture substantially more variance in regional sea surface temperatures than either proxy could explain alone. Just as importantly, networks of chronologies spanning multiple trophic levels can help identify climate variables critical to ecosystem functioning, which can then be targeted to generate most biologically relevant reconstructions possible. Along the west coast of North America, fish and bivalve chronologies in combination with records of seabird reproductive success indicate that winter sea-level pressure is closely associated with California Current productivity, which can be hind-cast over the past six centuries using coastal tree-ring chronologies. Thus, multiple proxies not only increase reconstruction skill, but also help isolate climate variables most closely linked to ecosystem structure and functioning.

  11. Multi-proxy reconstructions and the power of integration across marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, B.

    2013-12-01

    Over the past decade, dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) techniques have been increasingly applied to growth increments of various bivalve, fish, and coral species. In particular, the use of crossdating ensures that all increments in a dataset have assigned the correct calendar year of formation and that the resulting chronology is exactly placed in time. Such temporal alignment facilitates direct comparisons among chronologies that span diverse taxa and ecosystems, illustrating the pervasive, synchronizing influence of climate from alpine forests to the continental slope. Such an approach can be particularly beneficial to reconstructions in that each species captures climate signals from its unique 'perspective' of life history and habitat. For example, combinations of tree-ring data and chronologies for the long-lived bivalve Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa) capture substantially more variance in regional sea surface temperatures than either proxy could explain alone. Just as importantly, networks of chronologies spanning multiple trophic levels can help identify climate variables critical to ecosystem functioning, which can then be targeted to generate most biologically relevant reconstructions possible. Along the west coast of North America, fish and bivalve chronologies in combination with records of seabird reproductive success indicate that winter sea-level pressure is closely associated with California Current productivity, which can be hind-cast over the past six centuries using coastal tree-ring chronologies. Thus, multiple proxies not only increase reconstruction skill, but also help isolate climate variables most closely linked to ecosystem structure and functioning.

  12. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  13. Managing for Climate Change in Western Forest Ecosystems; The Role of Refugia in Adaptation Strategies (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millar, C. I.; Morelli, T.

    2009-12-01

    Managing forested ecosystems in western North America for adaptation to climate change involves options that depend on resource objectives, landscape conditions, sensitivity to change, and social desires. Strategies range from preserving species and ecosystems in the face of change (resisting change); managing for resilience to change; realigning ecosystems that have been severely altered so that they can adapt successfully; and enabling species to respond to climate changes. We are exploring one extreme in this range of strategies, that is, to manage locations, species, communities, or ecosystems as refugia. This concept is familiar from the Quaternary literature as isolated locations where climates remained warm during cold glacial intervals and wherein species contracted and persisted in small populations. References to refugia have been made in the climate-adaptation literature but little elaborated, and applications have not been described. We are addressing this gap conceptually and in case-studies from national forest and national park environments in California. Using a classification of refugium categories, we extend the concept beyond the original use to include diverse locations and conditions where plant or animal species, or ecosystems of concern, would persist during future changing climatic backgrounds. These locations may be determined as refugial for reasons of local microclimate, substrate, elevation, topographic context, paleohistory, species ecology, or management capacity. Recognizing that species and ecosystems respond to climate change differently, refugium strategies are appropriate in some situations and not others. We describe favorable conditions for using refugium strategies and elaborate specific approaches in Sierra Nevada case studies.

  14. Concepts and approaches for marine ecosystem research with reference to the tropics.

    PubMed

    Wolff, Matthias

    2002-06-01

    The present article gives an overview on the leading concepts and modelling approaches for marine ecosystems' research including (1) The trophodynamic theory of pelagic ecosystems, (2) Compartment/network models, (3) Mesocosm experiments and (4) Individual based modelling approaches and virtual ecosystems (VE). The main research questions addressed, as well as the potential and limits of each approach, are summarized and discussed and it is shown how the concept of ecosystem has changed over time. Aquatic biomass spectra (derived from the theory of pelagic ecosystems) can give insight into the trophic structure of different systems, and can show how organism sizes are distributed within the system and how different size groups participate in the system's metabolism and production. Compartment/network models allow for a more detailed description of the trophic structure of ecosystems and of the energy/biomass fluxes through the explicit modelling of P/B- and food consumption rates and biomasses for each system compartment. Moreover, system indices for a characterization and comparison with other systems can be obtained such as average trophic efficiency, energy throughput, and degree of connectivity, degree of maturity, and others. Recent dynamic extensions of trophic network models allow for exploring past and future impacts of fishing and environmental disturbances as well as to explore policies such as marine protected areas. Mesocosm experiments address a multitude of questions related to aquatic processes (i.e. primary production, grazing, predation, energy transfer between trophic levels etc.) and the behaviour of organisms (i.e. growth, migration, response to contaminants etc.) under semi-natural conditions. As processes within mesocosms often differ in rate and magnitude from those occurring in nature, mesocosms should be viewed as large in vitro experiments designed to test selected components of the ecosystem and not as an attempt to enclose a multitude of

  15. Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parkes, B.; Challinor, A.; Nicklin, K.

    2015-08-01

    The impact of geoengineering on crops has to date been studied by examining mean yields. We present the first work focusing on the rate of crop failures under a geoengineered climate. We investigate the impact of a future climate and a potential geoengineering scheme on the number of crop failures in two regions, Northeastern China and West Africa. Climate change associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the number of crop failures in Northeastern China while reducing the number of crop failures in West Africa. In both regions marine cloud brightening is likely to reduce the number crop failures, although it is more effective at reducing mild crop failure than severe crop failure. We find that water stress, rather than heat stress, is the main cause of crop failure in current, future and geoengineered climates. This demonstrates the importance of irrigation and breeding for tolerance to water stress as adaptation methods in all futures. Analysis of global rainfall under marine cloud brightening has the potential to significantly reduce the impact of climate change on global wheat and groundnut production.

  16. Adapting to extreme climates: raising animals in hot and arid ecosystems in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, S. Niggol

    2015-05-01

    This paper provides an analysis of adaptation to extreme climate changes using the Australian animal husbandry data. The paper finds that farmers have adapted to a hot and arid climate regime through animal husbandry. The number of sheep vastly increases into arid ecosystems while the number of beef cattle does not decline in high temperatures. In the future climate system in which Australia becomes hotter and more arid, we predict that farmers will increase by large percentages the numbers of beef cattle and/or sheep owned in order to adapt to a highly unfavorable climate condition, especially into the arid ecosystems. This paper shows how humanity has adapted to climate extremes taking into account changing ecosystems.

  17. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  18. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  19. Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate

  20. Sessile and mobile components of a benthic ecosystem display mixed trends within a temperate marine reserve.

    PubMed

    Howarth, Leigh M; Pickup, Sarah E; Evans, Lowri E; Cross, Tim J; Hawkins, Julie P; Roberts, Callum M; Stewart, Bryce D

    2015-06-01

    Despite recent efforts to increase the global coverage of marine protected areas (MPAs), studies investigating the effectiveness of marine protected areas within temperate waters remain scarce. Furthermore, out of the few studies published on MPAs in temperate waters, the majority focus on specific ecological or fishery components rather than investigating the ecosystem as a whole. This study therefore investigated the dynamics of both benthic communities and fish populations within a recently established, fully protected marine reserve in Lamlash Bay, Isle of Arran, United Kingdom, over a four year period. A combination of photo and diver surveys revealed live maerl (Phymatolithon calcareum), macroalgae, sponges, hydroids, feather stars and eyelash worms (Myxicola infundibulum) to be significantly more abundant within the marine reserve than on surrounding fishing grounds. Likewise, the overall composition of epifaunal communities in and outside the reserve was significantly different. Both results are consistent with the hypothesis that protecting areas from fishing can encourage seafloor habitats to recover. In addition, the greater abundance of complex habitats within the reserve appeared to providing nursery habitat for juvenile cod (Gadus morhua) and scallops (Pecten maximus and Aequipecten opercularis). In contrast, there was little difference in the abundance of mobile benthic fauna, such as crabs and starfish, between the reserve and outside. Similarly, the use of baited underwater video cameras revealed no difference in the abundance and size of fish between the reserve and outside. Limited recovery of these ecosystem components may be due to the relatively small size (2.67 km(2)) and young age of the reserve (<5 years), both of which might have limited the extent of any benefits afforded to mobile fauna and fish communities. Overall, this study provides evidence that fully protected marine reserves can encourage seafloor habitats to recover, which in

  1. The quickening pace and widening scope of ecosystem transformation under climate change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graumlich, L. J.; Bunn, A. G.

    2013-12-01

    When will we see climate-driven impacts on ecosystems and the associated services they provide to humans? Two large ecosystems stand out as heading towards tipping points: arctic ecosystems, and the forests of western North America. While each ecosystem is structurally distinct (i.e., tundra and sparse boreal forests vs. closed canopy forest) and proximate drivers of change are different (i.e., warming vs. drought), commonalities between them offer insights into what processes lead to the kind of ecosystem changes that have the potential to truly 'tip' into a novel regime. First, scale matters: in both ecosystems the spatial scale of change is unprecedented since the Holocene Climate Optimum more than 5,000 years ago. In the Arctic we see widespread changes in the timing and magnitude of ecosystem productivity, which affects biogeochemical cycling, evapotranspiration, and albedo. In western US forests, large fires have increased in frequency by a factor of 4 over the past few decades, driven in large part by broad-scale, severe droughts. Second, timing is everything: changing phenology is associated with unraveling ecological relationships. In the Arctic we see a reduction of seasonality in temperature and vegetation production equivalent to several degrees of latitudinal shift towards the equator. In western US forests, relatively small advances in the timing of snowmelt are associated with earlier dry down of fine fuels, which, in turn, lengthens the fire season. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, ecosystem change can and will accelerate climate change. This can be seen in high latitude systems, as well as in the American West, as changes in microclimate, albedo, and ecosystem function feed back to atmospheric processes. Such large-scale, abrupt and non-linear changes in ecosystems and the associated provision of ecosystem services are one of the greatest challenges society faces in adapting to climate change.

  2. Characterizing Vegetation Model Skill and Uncertainty in Simulated Ecosystem Response to Climate Change in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drapek, R. J.; Kim, J. B.

    2013-12-01

    We simulated ecosystem response to climate change in the USA and Canada at a 5 arc-minute grid resolution using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model and nine CMIP3 future climate projections as input. The climate projections were produced by 3 GCMs simulating 3 SRES emissions scenarios. We examined MC1 outputs for the conterminous USA by summarizing them by EPA level II and III ecoregions to characterize model skill and evaluate the magnitude and uncertainties of simulated ecosystem response to climate change. First, we evaluated model skill by comparing outputs from the recent historical period with benchmark datasets. Distribution of potential natural vegetation simulated by MC1 was compared with Kuchler's map. Above ground live carbon simulated by MC1 was compared with the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset. Fire return intervals calculated by MC1 were compared with maximum and minimum values compiled for the United States. Each EPA Level III Ecoregion was scored for average agreement with corresponding benchmark data and an average score was calculated for all three types of output. Greatest agreement with benchmark data happened in the Western Cordillera, the Ozark / Ouachita-Appalachian Forests, and the Southeastern USA Plains (EPA Level II Ecoregions). The lowest agreement happened in the Everglades and the Tamaulipas-Texas Semiarid Plain. For simulated ecosystem response to future climate projections we examined MC1 output for shifts in vegetation type, vegetation carbon, runoff, and biomass consumed by fire. Each ecoregion was scored for the amount of change from historical conditions for each variable and an average score was calculated. Smallest changes were forecast for Western Cordillera and Marine West Coast Forest ecosystems. Largest changes were forecast for the Cold Deserts, the Mixed Wood Plains, and the Central USA Plains. By combining scores of model skill for the historical period for each EPA Level 3 Ecoregion with scores representing the

  3. Responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change treatments along an elevation gradient

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Zhuoting; Koch, George W.; Dijkstra, Paul; Bowker, Matthew A.; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    Global temperature increases and precipitation changes are both expected to alter ecosystem carbon (C) cycling. We tested responses of ecosystem C cycling to simulated climate change using field manipulations of temperature and precipitation across a range of grass-dominated ecosystems along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona. In 2002, we transplanted intact plant–soil mesocosms to simulate warming and used passive interceptors and collectors to manipulate precipitation. We measured daytime ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem C exchange throughout the growing season in 2008 and 2009. Warming generally stimulated ER and photosynthesis, but had variable effects on daytime net C exchange. Increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C cycling only in the driest ecosystem at the lowest elevation, whereas decreased precipitation showed no effects on ecosystem C cycling across all ecosystems. No significant interaction between temperature and precipitation treatments was observed. Structural equation modeling revealed that in the wetter-than-average year of 2008, changes in ecosystem C cycling were more strongly affected by warming-induced reduction in soil moisture than by altered precipitation. In contrast, during the drier year of 2009, warming induced increase in soil temperature rather than changes in soil moisture determined ecosystem C cycling. Our findings suggest that warming exerted the strongest influence on ecosystem C cycling in both years, by modulating soil moisture in the wet year and soil temperature in the dry year.

  4. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on (Marine) Animals: Physiological Underpinnings and Evolutionary Consequences.

    PubMed

    Pörtner, Hans O; Gutt, Julian

    2016-07-01

    Understanding thermal ranges and limits of organisms becomes important in light of climate change and observed effects on ecosystems as reported by the IPCC (2014). Evolutionary adaptation to temperature is presently unable to keep animals and other organisms in place; if they can these rather follow the moving isotherms. These effects of climate change on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have brought into focus the mechanisms by which temperature and its oscillations shape the biogeography and survival of species. For animals, the integrative concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has successfully characterized the sublethal limits to performance and the consequences of such limits for ecosystems. Recent models illustrate how routine energy demand defines the realized niche. Steady state temperature-dependent performance profiles thus trace the thermal window and indicate a key role for aerobic metabolism, and the resulting budget of available energy (power), in defining performance under routine conditions, from growth to exercise and reproduction. Differences in the performance and productivity of marine species across latitudes relate to changes in mitochondrial density, capacity, and other features of cellular design. Comparative studies indicate how and why such mechanisms underpinning OCLTT may have developed on evolutionary timescales in different climatic zones and contributed to shaping the functional characteristics and species richness of the respective fauna. A cause-and-effect understanding emerges from considering the relationships between fluctuations in body temperature, cellular design, and performance. Such principles may also have been involved in shaping the functional characteristics of survivors in mass extinction events during earth's history; furthermore, they may provide access to understanding the evolution of endothermy in mammals and birds. Accordingly, an understanding is emerging how climate changes and

  5. Climate Change Experiments in Arctic Ecosystems: Scientific Strategy and Design Criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wullschleger, S. D.; Hinzman, L. D.; McGuire, A. D.; Oberbauer, S. F.; Oechel, W. C.; Norby, R. J.; Thornton, P. E.; Schuur, E. A.; Shugart, H. H.; Walsh, J. E.; Wilson, C. J.

    2010-12-01

    Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate. These are among the largest and coldest of all ecosystems and are perceived by many as especially vulnerable to environmental change. Warming, in particular, is expected to be greatest in northern latitudes with potentially significant consequences for tundra, taiga, and peat lands. Observational evidence suggests that warming is already affecting physical and ecological processes in high-latitude ecosystems. Models predict that permafrost degradation and the northward expansion of shrubs into tundra represent important feedbacks on climate. Manipulative experiments can help understand the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate warming. Previous attempts to manipulate the environment of ecosystems in arctic and subarctic regions have focused on warming plant and soils, but treatments have been limited to small scales and modest increases in temperature. Manipulating the environment at larger scales and exposing ecosystems to higher temperatures for longer periods of time will be required to fully describe the physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms that govern land-atmosphere interactions. A variety of logistical and engineering challenges must be overcome and new approaches developed before we can address the questions being asked of the scientific community especially as we continue to move toward large-scale and long-term experiments. In light of the many uncertainties that surround the response of high-latitude ecosystems to global climate change, it is important that the scientific community consider how manipulative experiments can address and resolve ecosystem impacts and feedbacks to climate. A workshop sponsored by the Department of Energy, Office of Science was recently held at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. The goal of the workshop was to highlight conclusions from observational and modeling studies about the response of arctic and subarctic ecosystems to a changing climate

  6. Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

    2015-09-01

    Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

  7. Biological invasions as a component of global change in stressed marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A; Savini, D

    2003-05-01

    Biological invasions in marine environment are the lesser known aspect of global change. However, recent events which occurred in the Mediterranean Sea demonstrate that they represent a serious ecological and economical menace leading to biodiversity loss, ecosystem unbalancing, fishery and tourism impairment. In this paper we review marine bioinvasions using examples taken from the Mediterranean/Black Sea region. Particular attention is given to the environmental status of the receiving area as a fundamental pre-requisite for the colonisation success of alien species. The spread of the tropical algae belonging to the genus Caulerpa in the northwestern basin of the Mediterranean Sea has been facilitated by pre-existing conditions of instability of the Posidonia oceanica endemic ecosystem in relation to stress of both natural and anthropogenic origin. Human interventions caused long-term modification in the Black Sea environment, preparing a fertile ground for mass bioinvasion of aquatic nuisance species which, in some cases, altered the original equilibrium of the entire basin. Finally, the Venice lagoon is presented as the third example of an environment subjected to high propagule pressure and anthropogenic forcing and bearing the higher "diversity" of non-indigenous species compared to the other Mediterranean lagoons. Stressed environments are easily colonised by alien species; understanding the links between human and natural disturbance and massive development of non-indigenous species will help prevent marine bioinvasions, that are already favoured by global oceanic trade. PMID:12735951

  8. High-throughput sequencing and morphology perform equally well for benthic monitoring of marine ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Lejzerowicz, Franck; Esling, Philippe; Pillet, Loïc; Wilding, Thomas A.; Black, Kenneth D.; Pawlowski, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Environmental diversity surveys are crucial for the bioassessment of anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems. Traditional benthic monitoring relying on morphotaxonomic inventories of macrofaunal communities is expensive, time-consuming and expertise-demanding. High-throughput sequencing of environmental DNA barcodes (metabarcoding) offers an alternative to describe biological communities. However, whether the metabarcoding approach meets the quality standards of benthic monitoring remains to be tested. Here, we compared morphological and eDNA/RNA-based inventories of metazoans from samples collected at 10 stations around a fish farm in Scotland, including near-cage and distant zones. For each of 5 replicate samples per station, we sequenced the V4 region of the 18S rRNA gene using the Illumina technology. After filtering, we obtained 841,766 metazoan sequences clustered in 163 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs). We assigned the OTUs by combining local BLAST searches with phylogenetic analyses. We calculated two commonly used indices: the Infaunal Trophic Index and the AZTI Marine Biotic Index. We found that the molecular data faithfully reflect the morphology-based indices and provides an equivalent assessment of the impact associated with fish farms activities. We advocate that future benthic monitoring should integrate metabarcoding as a rapid and accurate tool for the evaluation of the quality of marine benthic ecosystems. PMID:26355099

  9. High-resolution modeling of a marine ecosystem using the FRESCO hydroecological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zalesny, V. B.; Tamsalu, R.

    2009-02-01

    The FRESCO (Finnish Russian Estonian Cooperation) mathematical model describing a marine hydroecosystem is presented. The methodology of the numerical solution is based on the method of multicomponent splitting into physical and biological processes, spatial coordinates, etc. The model is used for the reproduction of physical and biological processes proceeding in the Baltic Sea. Numerical experiments are performed with different spatial resolutions for four marine basins that are enclosed into one another: the Baltic Sea, the Gulf of Finland, the Tallinn-Helsinki water area, and Tallinn Bay. Physical processes are described by the equations of nonhydrostatic dynamics, including the k-ω parametrization of turbulence. Biological processes are described by the three-dimensional equations of an aquatic ecosystem with the use of a size-dependent parametrization of biochemical reactions. The main goal of this study is to illustrate the efficiency of the developed numerical technique and to demonstrate the importance of a high spatial resolution for water basins that have complex bottom topography, such as the Baltic Sea. Detailed information about the atmospheric forcing, bottom topography, and coastline is very important for the description of coastal dynamics and specific features of a marine ecosystem. Experiments show that the spatial inhomogeneity of hydroecosystem fields is caused by the combined effect of upwelling, turbulent mixing, surface-wave breaking, and temperature variations, which affect biochemical reactions.

  10. An integrated view of gamma radiation effects on marine fauna: from molecules to ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Won, Eun-Ji; Dahms, Hans-U; Kumar, K Suresh; Shin, Kyung-Hoon; Lee, Jae-Seong

    2015-11-01

    Accidental release of nuclides into the ocean is causing health risks to marine organisms and humans. All life forms are susceptible to gamma radiation with a high variation, depending on various physical factors such as dose, mode, and time of exposure and various biological factors such as species, vitality, age, and gender. Differences in sensitivity of gamma radiation are also associated with different efficiencies of mechanisms related to protection and repair systems. Gamma radiation may also affect various other integration levels: from gene, protein, cells and organs, population, and communities, disturbing the energy flow of food webs that will ultimately affect the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Depending on exposure levels, gamma radiation induces damages on growth and reproduction in various organisms such as zooplankton, benthos, and fish in aquatic ecosystems. In this paper, harmful effects of gamma-irradiated aquatic organisms are described and the potential of marine copepods in assessing the risk of gamma radiation is discussed with respect to physiological adverse effects that even affect the ecosystem level. PMID:25382502

  11. Marine Phytophthora species can hamper conservation and restoration of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Govers, Laura L; Man In 't Veld, Willem A; Meffert, Johan P; Bouma, Tjeerd J; van Rijswick, Patricia C J; Heusinkveld, Jannes H T; Orth, Robert J; van Katwijk, Marieke M; van der Heide, Tjisse

    2016-08-31

    Phytophthora species are potent pathogens that can devastate terrestrial plants, causing billions of dollars of damage yearly to agricultural crops and harming fragile ecosystems worldwide. Yet, virtually nothing is known about the distribution and pathogenicity of their marine relatives. This is surprising, as marine plants form vital habitats in coastal zones worldwide (i.e. mangrove forests, salt marshes, seagrass beds), and disease may be an important bottleneck for the conservation and restoration of these rapidly declining ecosystems. We are the first to report on widespread infection of Phytophthora and Halophytophthora species on a common seagrass species, Zostera marina (eelgrass), across the northern Atlantic and Mediterranean. In addition, we tested the effects of Halophytophthora sp. Zostera and Phytophthora gemini on Z. marina seed germination in a full-factorial laboratory experiment under various environmental conditions. Results suggest that Phytophthora species are widespread as we found these oomycetes in eelgrass beds in six countries across the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. Infection by Halophytophthora sp. Zostera, P. gemini, or both, strongly affected sexual reproduction by reducing seed germination sixfold. Our findings have important implications for seagrass ecology, because these putative pathogens probably negatively affect ecosystem functioning, as well as current restoration and conservation efforts. PMID:27559058

  12. Deep-water longline fishing has reduced impact on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Pham, Christopher K.; Diogo, Hugo; Menezes, Gui; Porteiro, Filipe; Braga-Henriques, Andreia; Vandeperre, Frederic; Morato, Telmo

    2014-01-01

    Bottom trawl fishing threatens deep-sea ecosystems, modifying the seafloor morphology and its physical properties, with dramatic consequences on benthic communities. Therefore, the future of deep-sea fishing relies on alternative techniques that maintain the health of deep-sea ecosystems and tolerate appropriate human uses of the marine environment. In this study, we demonstrate that deep-sea bottom longline fishing has little impact on vulnerable marine ecosystems, reducing bycatch of cold-water corals and limiting additional damage to benthic communities. We found that slow-growing vulnerable species are still common in areas subject to more than 20 years of longlining activity and estimate that one deep-sea bottom trawl will have a similar impact to 296–1,719 longlines, depending on the morphological complexity of the impacted species. Given the pronounced differences in the magnitude of disturbances coupled with its selectivity and low fuel consumption, we suggest that regulated deep-sea longlining can be an alternative to deep-sea bottom trawling. PMID:24776718

  13. Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

    2014-01-01

    Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

  14. Climate extremes in multi-model simulations of stratospheric aerosol and marine cloud brightening climate engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aswathy, V. N.; Boucher, O.; Quaas, M.; Niemeier, U.; Muri, H.; Quaas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Simulations from a multi-model ensemble for the RCP4.5 climate change scenario for the 21st century, and for two solar radiation management schemes (stratospheric sulfate injection, G3, and marine cloud brightening, G3SSCE) have been analyzed in terms of changes in the mean and extremes for surface air temperature and precipitation. The climate engineered (SRM 2060s - RCP4.5 2010s) and termination (2080s - 2060s) periods are investigated. During the climate engineering period, both schemes, as intended, offset temperature increases by about 60% globally, but are more effective in the low latitudes and exhibit some residual warming in the Arctic (especially in the case of marine cloud brightening that is only applied in the low latitudes). In both climate engineering scenarios, extreme temperatures changes are similar to the mean temperature changes over much of the globe. The exception is in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, where high temperatures (90th percentile of the distribution) of climate engineering relative to RCP4.5 rise less than the mean and cold temperatures (10th percentile) much more than the mean. When defining temperature extremes by fixed thresholds, namely number of frost days and summer days, it is found that both climate engineering experiments are not completely alleviating the changes relative to RCP 4.5. The reduction in 2060s dry spell occurrence over land region in G3-SSCE is is more pronounced than over oceans. Experiment G3 exhibits same pattern as G3-SSCE albeit, stronger in magnitude. A strong termination effect is found for the two climate engineering schemes, with large temperature increases especially in the Arctic. Mean temperatures rise faster than the extremes, especially over oceans, with the exception of the Tropics. Conversely precipitation extremes rise much more than the mean, even more so over the ocean, and especially in the Tropics.

  15. Climate Feedback on Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butenhoff, C. L.; Sithole, A.; Khalil, A. K.; Rice, A. L.; Shearer, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are one of the important components of the climate system that are bound to change and cause feedbacks with global warming. One major mechanism of this feedback is the response of biological processes, mostly bacteria, that produce or consume greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Here we are concerned with the emissions of CH4 which is considered the most important non-CO2 greenhouse gas because it has more than doubled during the last century and is about 20 times more potent per kilogram once emitted to the atmosphere. Methane is produced by anaerobic methanogens in wetland soils and rice paddies, and is consumed by methanotrophic bacteria in aerobic and upland soils. Together these sources account for about 40-60% of global methane emissions. Properly accounting for the feedback of CH4 emissions with temperature in Earth Systems Models (ESMs) remains an open challenge in part due to the lack of experimental data. Reported Q10 values (factor by which reaction rate increases for a 10°C rise in temperature) of CH4 flux from wetlands and rice agriculture vary over an order of magnitude for reasons that are not well known contributing to this uncertainty. We report here a suite of experimental measurements to determine the Q10 of CH4 flux from rice agriculture and to understand how it depends on the temperature responses of its underlying processes. Since processes may have different Q10 values it is essential that these are properly represented in ESMs. We grew rice plants in temperature-controlled mesocosms at 20, 24, 28 and 32°C over two seasons (years 2009 - 2010) and measured flux, production and oxidation rates, at regular intervals using static chambers, soil core incubations, and carbon isotopes (δ13C-CH4), respectively. In addition we used qPCR techniques to measure methyl coenzyme M reductase (mcrA) and particulate methane monooxygenase (pmoA) genes from mesocosm soil cores to establish the temperature

  16. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    PubMed

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response. PMID:17148349

  17. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian–zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response. PMID:17148349

  18. Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests.

    PubMed

    Susaeta, Andres; Adams, Damian C; Carter, Douglas R; Dwivedi, Puneet

    2016-09-01

    Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production. PMID:27263100

  19. Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Susaeta, Andres; Adams, Damian C.; Carter, Douglas R.; Dwivedi, Puneet

    2016-09-01

    Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production.

  20. Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Ge; Duan, Kai; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter; Cohen, Erika; McNulty, Steven; Zhang, Yang

    2016-04-01

    The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This modeling study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in forest productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m-2 yr-1 (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr-1 (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 ℃) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr-1). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

  1. Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation

    PubMed Central

    Schneider, Richard R.; Bayne, Erin M.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous. PMID:25978759

  2. The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis.

    PubMed

    Younger, Jane L; Emmerson, Louise M; Miller, Karen J

    2016-02-01

    The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds

  3. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  4. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Covich, A. P.; Fritz, S. C.; Lamb, P. J.; Marzolf, R. D.; Matthews, W. J.; Poiani, K. A.; Prepas, E. E.; Richman, M. B.; Winter, T. C.

    1997-06-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research.

  5. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Ecosystem Diversity and Heterogeneity Determine the Resilience of the Amazon to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moorcroft, P. R.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; Powell, T.; Zhang, K.

    2015-12-01

    Amazon Forests, which play a vital role in global water, energy and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intensive dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, while several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. In this study we use an individual-based terrestrial ecosystem model to explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. Our results show that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, strongly influence the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Further analysis shows that two key traits influencing the climatic sensitivity of individuals within the plant canopy are their phenology and hydraulic architecture. In contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, our analyses indicate that, as a result of these effects of ecosystem diversity and heterogeneity, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah ecosystems. While fire, logging and other anthropogenic disturbances may exacerbate the impacts of climate-induced changes, our analysis indicates considerable spatial variation in the vulnerability of Amazon forests to human induced climate change.

  7. Recent Rapid Climate Changes in Antarctic and Their Influence on Low Diversity Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chwedorzewska, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    The geographic position, astronomic factors (e.g. the Earth's maximum distance from the Sun during winter), ice cover and altitude are the main factors affecting the climate of the Antarctic, which is the coldest place on Earth. Parts of Antarctica are facing the most rapid rates of anthropogenic climate change currently seen on the planet. Climate changes are occurring throughout Antarctica, affecting three major groups of environmental variables of considerable biological significance: temperature, water, UV-B radiation. Low diversity ecosystems are expected to be more vulnerable to global changes than high diversity ecosystems.

  8. Recent Rapid Climate Changes in Antarctic and their Influence on Low Diversity Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chwedorzewska, Katarzyna J.

    2010-01-01

    The geographic position, astronomic factors (e.g. the Earth's maximum distance from the Sun during winter), ice cover and altitude are the main factors affecting the climate of the Antarctic, which is the coldest place on Earth. Parts of Antarctica are facing the most rapid rates of anthropogenic climate change currently seen on the planet. Climate changes are occurring throughout Antarctica, affecting three major groups of environmental variables of considerable biological significance: temperature, water, UV-B radiation. Low diversity ecosystems are expected to be more vulnerable to global changes than high diversity ecosystems

  9. The climate responses of tropical and boreal ecosystems with an improved land surface model (JULES)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, Anna; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Cox, Peter; Wiltshire, Andy; Jones, Chris

    2016-04-01

    The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land surface of the next generation UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). Recently, JULES was updated with new plant functional types and physiology based on a global plant trait database. These developments improved the simulation of terrestrial gross and net primary productivity on local and global scales, and enabled a more realistic representation of the global distribution of vegetation. In this study, we explore the present-day distribution of ecosystems and their vulnerability to climate change in JULES with these improvements, focusing on tropical and boreal ecosystems. Changes to these ecosystems will have implications for biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change and need to be understood. First, we examine the simulated and observed rainforest-savannah boundary, which is strongly related to annual precipitation and the maximum climatological water deficit. Second, we assess the length of growing season and biomass stored in boreal ecosystems, where 20th century warming has likely extended the growing season. In each case, we first evaluate the ability of JULES to capture observed climate-vegetation relationships and trends. Finally, we run JULES to 2100 using climate data from 3 models and 2 RCP scenarios, and examine potential 21st century changes to these ecosystems. For example, do the tropical forests shrink in response to changes in tropical rainfall seasonality? And, how does the composition of boreal ecosystems change in response to climate warming? Given the potential for climate feedbacks and the inherent value in these ecosystems, it is essential to assess their responses to a range of climate change scenarios.

  10. The Elusive Baseline of Marine Disease: Are Diseases in Ocean Ecosystems Increasing?

    PubMed Central

    2004-01-01

    Disease outbreaks alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems, directly affecting vertebrates (mammals, turtles, fish), invertebrates (corals, crustaceans, echinoderms), and plants (seagrasses). Previous studies suggest a recent increase in marine disease. However, lack of baseline data in most communities prevents a direct test of this hypothesis. We developed a proxy to evaluate a prediction of the increasing disease hypothesis: the proportion of scientific publications reporting disease increased in recent decades. This represents, to our knowledge, the first quantitative use of normalized trends in the literature to investigate an ecological hypothesis. We searched a literature database for reports of parasites and disease (hereafter “disease”) in nine marine taxonomic groups from 1970 to 2001. Reports, normalized for research effort, increased in turtles, corals, mammals, urchins, and molluscs. No significant trends were detected for seagrasses, decapods, or sharks/rays (though disease occurred in these groups). Counter to the prediction, disease reports decreased in fishes. Formulating effective resource management policy requires understanding the basis and timing of marine disease events. Why disease outbreaks increased in some groups but not in others should be a priority for future investigation. The increase in several groups lends urgency to understanding disease dynamics, particularly since few viable options currently exist to mitigate disease in the oceans. PMID:15094816

  11. Bubble Stripping as a Tool To Reduce High Dissolved CO2 in Coastal Marine Ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Koweek, David A; Mucciarone, David A; Dunbar, Robert B

    2016-04-01

    High dissolved CO2 concentrations in coastal ecosystems are a common occurrence due to a combination of large ecosystem metabolism, shallow water, and long residence times. Many important coastal species may have adapted to this natural variability over time, but eutrophication and ocean acidification may be perturbing the water chemistry beyond the bounds of tolerance for these organisms. We are currently limited in our ability to deal with the geochemical changes unfolding in our coastal ocean. This study helps to address this deficit of solutions by introducing bubble stripping as a novel geochemical engineering approach to reducing high CO2 in coastal marine ecosystems. We use a process-based model to find that air/sea gas exchange rates within a bubbled system are 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than within a nonbubbled system. By coupling bubbling-enhanced ventilation to a coastal ecosystem metabolism model, we demonstrate that strategically timed bubble plumes can mitigate exposure to high CO2 under present-day conditions and that exposure mitigation is enhanced in the more acidic conditions predicted by the end of the century. We argue that shallow water CO2 bubble stripping should be considered among the growing list of engineering approaches intended to increase coastal resilience in a changing ocean. PMID:26988138

  12. Tropical marginal seas: priority regions for managing marine biodiversity and ecosystem function.

    PubMed

    McKinnon, A David; Williams, Alan; Young, Jock; Ceccarelli, Daniela; Dunstan, Piers; Brewin, Robert J W; Watson, Reg; Brinkman, Richard; Cappo, Mike; Duggan, Samantha; Kelley, Russell; Ridgway, Ken; Lindsay, Dhugal; Gledhill, Daniel; Hutton, Trevor; Richardson, Anthony J

    2014-01-01

    Tropical marginal seas (TMSs) are natural subregions of tropical oceans containing biodiverse ecosystems with conspicuous, valued, and vulnerable biodiversity assets. They are focal points for global marine conservation because they occur in regions where human populations are rapidly expanding. Our review of 11 TMSs focuses on three key ecosystems-coral reefs and emergent atolls, deep benthic systems, and pelagic biomes-and synthesizes, illustrates, and contrasts knowledge of biodiversity, ecosystem function, interaction between adjacent habitats, and anthropogenic pressures. TMSs vary in the extent that they have been subject to human influence-from the nearly pristine Coral Sea to the heavily exploited South China and Caribbean Seas-but we predict that they will all be similarly complex to manage because most span multiple national jurisdictions. We conclude that developing a structured process to identify ecologically and biologically significant areas that uses a set of globally agreed criteria is a tractable first step toward effective multinational and transboundary ecosystem management of TMSs. PMID:24128091

  13. Activation of the marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS for the Baltic Sea in operational mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, Lidia; Jakacki, Jaromir; Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur

    2013-04-01

    The paper presents a new marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS designed for the Baltic Sea. The ecosystem model is incorporated into the 3D POPCICE ocean-ice model. The Current Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from the National Center for Atmospheric Research) which was adapted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice Code (CICE model, version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (version 2.1). The ecosystem model is a biological submodel of the 3D CEMBS. It consists of eleven mass conservation equations. There are eleven partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type with the advective term for phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved and particulate organic matter. This model is an effective tool for solving the problem of ecosystem bioproductivity. The model is forced by 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM). The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No N N305 111636, N N306 353239). The partial support for this study was also provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBaltyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract no. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09. Calculations were carried out at the Academy Computer Centre in Gdańsk.

  14. The relation between productivity and species diversity in temperate-Arctic marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Witman, Jon D; Cusson, Mathieu; Archambault, Philippe; Pershing, Andrew J; Mieszkowska, Nova

    2008-11-01

    Energy variables, such as evapotranspiration, temperature, and productivity explain significant variation in the diversity of many groups of terrestrial plants and animals at local to global scales. Although the ocean represents the largest continuous habitat on earth with a vast spectrum of primary productivity and species richness, little is known about how productivity influences species diversity in marine systems. To search for general relationships between productivity and species richness in the ocean, we analyzed data from three different benthic marine ecosystems (epifaunal communities on subtidal rock walls, on navigation buoys in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Canadian Arctic macrobenthos) across local to continental spatial scales (<20 to >1000 km) using a standardized proxy for productivity, satellite-derived chlorophyll a. Theoretically, the form of the function between productivity and species richness is either monotonically increasing or decreasing, or curvilinear (hump- or U-shaped). We found three negative linear and three hump-shaped relationships between chlorophyll a and species richness out of 10 independent comparisons. Scale dependence was suggested by more prevalent diversity-productivity relationships at smaller (local, landscape) than larger (regional, continental) spatial scales. Differences in the form of the functions were more closely allied with community type than with scale, as negative linear functions were restricted to sessile epifauna while hump-shaped functions occurred in Arctic macrobenthos (mixed epifauna, infauna). In two of the data sets, (St. Lawrence epifauna and Arctic macrobenthos) significant effects of chlorophyll a co-varied with the effects of salinity, suggesting that environmental stress as well as productivity influences diversity in these marine systems. The co-varying effect of salinity may commonly arise in broad-scale studies of productivity and diversity in marine ecosystems when attempting to sample the

  15. Climatic regulation of seasonal and inter-annual variability in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 on rangelands

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) from terrestrial ecosystems varies seasonally and inter-annually because of temporal variation in climate. If we are predict climate-caused variation in NEE, we must understand how climatic variation influences NEE and its components, CO2 uptake and CO2 loss. ...

  16. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling associated with Typhoons/ Hurricane and their impacts on marine ecosystem (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    DanLing TANG South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou, China Phone (86) 13924282728; Fax/Tel: (86) 020 89023203 (off), 020 89023191 (Lab),Email,lingzistdl@126.com, Typhoon / hurricane activities and their impacts on environments have been strengthening in both intensity and spatial coverage, along with global changes in the past several decades; however, our knowledge about impact of typhoon on the marine ecosystem is very scarce. We have conducted a series studies in the South China Sea (SCS), investigating phytoplankton, sea surface temperature (SST), fishery data and related factors before, during, and after typhoon. Satellite remote sensing and in situ observation data obtained from research cruise were applied. Our study showed that typhoon can support nutrients to surface phytoplankton by inducing upwelling and vertical mixing, and typhoon rain can also nourish marine phytoplankton; both typhoon winds and rain can enhance production of marine phytoplankton. Slow-moving typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of higher Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), the strong typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of a large area. We conservatively estimate that typhoon periods may account for 3.5% of the annual primary production in the oligotrophic SCS. It indicated that one typhoon may induce transport of nutrient-rich water from depth and from the coast to offshore regions, nourishing phytoplankton biomass. More observations confirmed that typhoon can induce cold eddy, and cold eddy can support eddy-shape phytoplankton bloom by upwelling. We have suggested a new index to evaluate typhoon impact on marine ecosystem and environment. This is the first time to report moving eddies and eddy-shape phytoplankton blooms associated with tropical cyclone, the relationship among tropical cyclone, cold eddy upwelling and eddy-shape phytoplankton bloom may give some viewpoint on the tropical cyclone's affection on the mesoscale circulation. Those studies may

  17. Ecosystem responses in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Gordon T.; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Thunell, Robert C.; Scranton, Mary I.; Astor, Yrene; Varela, Ramon; Ghinaglia, Luis Troccoli; Lorenzoni, Laura; Fanning, Kent A.; Hameed, Sultan; Doherty, Owen

    2012-01-01

    Over the last few decades, rising greenhouse gas emissions have promoted poleward expansion of the large-scale atmospheric Hadley circulation that dominates the Tropics, thereby affecting behavior of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Expression of these changes in tropical marine ecosystems is poorly understood because of sparse observational datasets. We link contemporary ecological changes in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change indices. Monthly observations from the CARIACO Ocean Time-Series between 1996 and 2010 document significant decadal scale trends, including a net sea surface temperature (SST) rise of ∼1.0 ± 0.14 °C (±SE), intensified stratification, reduced delivery of upwelled nutrients to surface waters, and diminished phytoplankton bloom intensities evident as overall declines in chlorophyll a concentrations (ΔChla = −2.8 ± 0.5%⋅y−1) and net primary production (ΔNPP = −1.5 ± 0.3%⋅y−1). Additionally, phytoplankton taxon dominance shifted from diatoms, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophorids to smaller taxa after 2004, whereas mesozooplankton biomass increased and commercial landings of planktivorous sardines collapsed. Collectively, our results reveal an ecological state change in this planktonic system. The weakening trend in Trade Winds (−1.9 ± 0.3%⋅y−1) and dependent local variables are largely explained by trends in two climatic indices, namely the northward migration of the Azores High pressure center (descending branch of Hadley cell) by 1.12 ± 0.42°N latitude and the northeasterly progression of the ITCZ Atlantic centroid (ascending branch of Hadley cell), the March position of which shifted by about 800 km between 1996 and 2009. PMID:23071299

  18. Observations from Space: Marine Ecosystem and Environment Response to Typhoon/ Hurricanes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Danling; Yi, Sui

    Marine ecosystem is sensitive to environmental factors, including typhoon. Typhoon's activities have been strengthening in both intensity and spatial coverage in the past several decades, along with global changes; however, our knowledge about the impact of typhoons upon the marine ecosystem is very scarce. To understand how could typhoon/hurricane impact on marine ecosystem, we have conducted a series studies in the South China Sea, by using Satellite remote sensing and in situ observation data to investigate phytoplankton concentration, sea surface temperature (SST) and related factors before, during, and after typhoon. Results show that typhoon can induce large area of phytoplankton blooms with increases of Chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations and decrease of sea surface temperature (SST) about 4 oC. Analysis showed that typhoon can support nutrients to surface phytoplankton by upwelling and vertical mixing, and typhoon rain can also nourish marine phytoplankton. More observations confirmed that typhoon can induce cold eddy, and cold eddy can support eddy-shape phyto-plankton bloom by upwelling. Typhoon can also induce transport of nutrient-rich water from depth and from the coast to offshore regions, nourishing phytoplankton biomass. Comparative study show that slow-moving typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of higher Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), the strong typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of a large area. Therefore, typhoons may have important contribution to the marine primary production. Those studies may help better understand the mechanism of typhoon impacts on marine ecosys-tem, and the role of typhoon in the global environmental changes. The series research were sup-ported by: NSFC (40976091, 40811140533) and GD NSF (8351030101000002); (2) CAS(kzcx2-yw-226 and LYQ200701); (3) The CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams (KZCX2-YW-T001). References: Tang, DanLing, H Kawamura, P Shi, W Takahashi, T Shimada, F. Sakaida, O

  19. Patterns and Variation in Benthic Biodiversity in a Large Marine Ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Piacenza, Susan E; Barner, Allison K; Benkwitt, Cassandra E; Boersma, Kate S; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B; Ingeman, Kurt E; Kindinger, Tye L; Lee, Jonathan D; Lindsley, Amy J; Reimer, Jessica N; Rowe, Jennifer C; Shen, Chenchen; Thompson, Kevin A; Thurman, Lindsey L; Heppell, Selina S

    2015-01-01

    While there is a persistent inverse relationship between latitude and species diversity across many taxa and ecosystems, deviations from this norm offer an opportunity to understand the conditions that contribute to large-scale diversity patterns. Marine systems, in particular, provide such an opportunity, as marine diversity does not always follow a strict latitudinal gradient, perhaps because several hypothesized drivers of the latitudinal diversity gradient are uncorrelated in marine systems. We used a large scale public monitoring dataset collected over an eight year period to examine benthic marine faunal biodiversity patterns for the continental shelf (55-183 m depth) and slope habitats (184-1280 m depth) off the US West Coast (47°20'N-32°40'N). We specifically asked whether marine biodiversity followed a strict latitudinal gradient, and if these latitudinal patterns varied across depth, in different benthic substrates, and over ecological time scales. Further, we subdivided our study area into three smaller regions to test whether coast-wide patterns of biodiversity held at regional scales, where local oceanographic processes tend to influence community structure and function. Overall, we found complex patterns of biodiversity on both the coast-wide and regional scales that differed by taxonomic group. Importantly, marine biodiversity was not always highest at low latitudes. We found that latitude, depth, substrate, and year were all important descriptors of fish and invertebrate diversity. Invertebrate richness and taxonomic diversity were highest at high latitudes and in deeper waters. Fish richness also increased with latitude, but exhibited a hump-shaped relationship with depth, increasing with depth up to the continental shelf break, ~200 m depth, and then decreasing in deeper waters. We found relationships between fish taxonomic and functional diversity and latitude, depth, substrate, and time at the regional scale, but not at the coast-wide scale

  20. Patterns and Variation in Benthic Biodiversity in a Large Marine Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jonathan D.

    2015-01-01

    While there is a persistent inverse relationship between latitude and species diversity across many taxa and ecosystems, deviations from this norm offer an opportunity to understand the conditions that contribute to large-scale diversity patterns. Marine systems, in particular, provide such an opportunity, as marine diversity does not always follow a strict latitudinal gradient, perhaps because several hypothesized drivers of the latitudinal diversity gradient are uncorrelated in marine systems. We used a large scale public monitoring dataset collected over an eight year period to examine benthic marine faunal biodiversity patterns for the continental shelf (55–183 m depth) and slope habitats (184–1280 m depth) off the US West Coast (47°20′N—32°40′N). We specifically asked whether marine biodiversity followed a strict latitudinal gradient, and if these latitudinal patterns varied across depth, in different benthic substrates, and over ecological time scales. Further, we subdivided our study area into three smaller regions to test whether coast-wide patterns of biodiversity held at regional scales, where local oceanographic processes tend to influence community structure and function. Overall, we found complex patterns of biodiversity on both the coast-wide and regional scales that differed by taxonomic group. Importantly, marine biodiversity was not always highest at low latitudes. We found that latitude, depth, substrate, and year were all important descriptors of fish and invertebrate diversity. Invertebrate richness and taxonomic diversity were highest at high latitudes and in deeper waters. Fish richness also increased with latitude, but exhibited a hump-shaped relationship with depth, increasing with depth up to the continental shelf break, ~200 m depth, and then decreasing in deeper waters. We found relationships between fish taxonomic and functional diversity and latitude, depth, substrate, and time at the regional scale, but not at the coast

  1. INCREASE - an Integrated Network on Climate Change REsearch Activities on Shrubland Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappel Schmidt, Inger; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Beier, Claus; Tietema, Albert; Emmett, Bridget; De Angelis, Paolo; Duce, Pierpaolo; Cesaraccio, Carla; Spano, Donatella; Kroel-Dulay, Gyuri; Jones, Davey

    2013-04-01

    Climate change poses a serious challenge for the scientific communities to develop new concepts for research and modeling to provide better and more realistic answers and predictions of what the impact will be. INCREASE is an EU-funded research infrastructure based upon large scale field experiments with non-intrusive manipulations of temperature and precipitation since 1999. The experiments are placed in vulnerable scrubland ecosystems across Europe. Shrubland ecosystems were chosen because they represent an important natural resource, which are known to be sensitive to observed changes in environmental pressures. The experiments combine 2 different approaches to study climate effects on ecosystems. The first approach is known as "space for time" substitution, where the long term effect of a pressure on an ecosystem at any particular site is studied by moving to another site along temperature and precipitation gradients. This was done by carrying out the same studies in comparable ecosystems in UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Hungary, Spain and Italy - which are naturally exposed to large differences in the climatic conditions. The other approach applied is "ecosystem manipulations", which means that the ecosystem is exposed to the changes in the field by realistic manipulations of temperature and water and in one experiment in combination with CO2. This combination of gradients and experimental manipulation increases the potential for evaluating the generality of the observed responses to the changes in the climatic drivers. Within INCREASE we improve the technology and methodology for studies of climate change effects on European shrublands and stimulate collaboration within the scientific community around climate manipulation experiments. In addition, data and results from the research infrastructures were collected into an integrated database (INCREASE DB) with the aim to improve capacities in the protection, management and storage of data and to provide a web

  2. Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service

  3. Arctic marine climate of the early nineteenth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brohan, P.; Ward, C.; Willetts, G.; Wilkinson, C.; Allan, R.; Wheeler, D.

    2010-02-01

    The climate of the early nineteenth century is likely to have been significantly cooler than that of today, as it was a period of low solar activity (the Dalton minimum) and followed a series of large volcanic eruptions. Proxy reconstructions of the temperature of the period do not agree well on the size of the temperature change, so other observational records from the period are particularly valuable. Weather observations have been extracted from the reports of the noted whaling captain William Scoresby Jr., and from the records of a series of Royal Navy expeditions to the Arctic, preserved in the UK National Archives. They demonstrate that marine climate in 1810-25 was marked by consistently cold summers, with abundant sea-ice. But although the period was significantly colder than the modern average, there was a lot of variability: in the Greenland Sea the summers following the Tambora eruption (1816 and 1817) were noticeably warmer, and had lower sea-ice coverage, than the years immediately preceding them; and the sea-ice coverage in Lancaster Sound in 1819 and 1820 was low even by modern standards.

  4. Arctic marine climate of the early nineteenth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brohan, P.; Ward, C.; Willetts, G.; Wilkinson, C.; Allan, R.; Wheeler, D.

    2010-05-01

    The climate of the early nineteenth century is likely to have been significantly cooler than that of today, as it was a period of low solar activity (the Dalton minimum) and followed a series of large volcanic eruptions. Proxy reconstructions of the temperature of the period do not agree well on the size of the temperature change, so other observational records from the period are particularly valuable. Weather observations have been extracted from the reports of the noted whaling captain William Scoresby Jr., and from the records of a series of Royal Navy expeditions to the Arctic, preserved in the UK National Archives. They demonstrate that marine climate in 1810-1825 was marked by consistently cold summers, with abundant sea-ice. But although the period was significantly colder than the modern average, there was considerable variability: in the Greenland Sea the summers following the Tambora eruption (1816 and 1817) were noticeably warmer, and had less sea-ice coverage, than the years immediately preceding them; and the sea-ice coverage in Lancaster Sound in 1819 and 1820 was low even by modern standards.

  5. Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

    PubMed

    Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

    2016-03-01

    Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. PMID:26599719

  6. Opportunities to Improve Urban and Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change Through Conservation of Green Space.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    The conservation of biotic communities in urbanized ecosystems is critical in light of heightened vulnerability due to climate change. Conservation of large open spaces around cities and smaller 'green' spaces within cities - such as forest patches and wetlands - has the capacity to diminish the vulnerability of human communities to higher temperatures, water shortages, increased flooding and other impacts of climate change. In addition, native species need to migrate to track their climate niches and the chances of successful migration will be increased if species have access to habitat throughout the landscape. Thus there is a strong rationale to do more conservation and restoration for both ecosystem and urban adaptation to climate change. Despite this alignment, planning efforts in the urban and ecosystem sectors are rarely done synergistically. As a result it is not clear how well plans will achieve biodiversity along with other ecosystem services goals. In this talk, I will discuss how urban adaptation planning can better align with ecosystem adaptation planning by drawing on research exploring sustainability plans and urban ecology in US cities, including work conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area by the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3). This research shows that there are considerable opportunities for linking agendas across sectors in ways that could yield multiple benefits. There are however both social and ecological challenges. In some cases difficult choices will need to be made about which values and services are most important, or where in the landscape different values should be prioritized.

  7. Improved Climate Prediction through a System Level Understanding of Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE-Arctic)*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubbard, S. S.; Graham, D. E.; Hinzman, L. D.; Liang, L.; Liljedahl, A.; Norby, R. J.; Rogers, A.; Rowland, J. C.; Thornton, P. E.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Wilson, C. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.

    2013-12-01

    Characterized by vast amounts of carbon stored in permafrost and a rapidly evolving landscape, the Arctic has emerged as an important focal point for the study of climate change. Although recognized as an ecosystem highly vulnerable to climate change, mechanisms that govern feedbacks between the terrestrial and climate system are not well understood. Increasing our confidence in climate projections for high-latitude regions of the world requires coordinated investigations that target improved process understanding and model representation of important ecosystem-climate feedbacks. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE-Arctic) seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the physical, chemical, and biological behavior of terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. The NGEE-Arctic project is a large, multi-disciplinary activity sponsored by the Department of Energy, Office of Science. Recent NGEE-Arctic research has focused on the highly dynamic landscapes of the North Slope Arctic tundra where thaw lakes, drained thaw lake basins, and ice-rich polygonal ground offer distinct land units for investigation and modeling. The project is working on the Barrow Environmental Observatory to study interactions that drive critical climate feedbacks within these environments through greenhouse gas fluxes and changes in surface energy balance associated with permafrost degradation and the many other processes that arise as a result of these landscape dynamics. Ongoing are mechanistic studies in the field and in the laboratory; modeling of critical and interrelated water, nitrogen, carbon, and energy dynamics; and characterization of important interactions from molecular to landscape scales that drive feedbacks to the climate system. A suite of climate-, intermediate- and fine-scale models are being used to guide observations and interpret data, while characterization information and process studies serve to initialize state variables in models, provide new algorithms and

  8. Marine reserves reduce risk of climate-driven phase shift by reinstating size- and habitat-specific trophic interactions.

    PubMed

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R

    2012-06-01

    Spatial closures in the marine environment are widely accepted as effective conservation and fisheries management tools. Given increasing human-derived stressors acting on marine ecosystems, the need for such effective action is urgently clear. Here we explore mechanisms underlying the utility of marine reserves to reinstate trophic dynamics and to increase resilience of kelp beds against climate-driven phase shift to sea urchin barrens on the rapidly warming Tasmanian east coast. Tethering and tagging experiments were used to examine size- and shelter-specific survival of the range-extending sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) translocated to reefs inside and outside no-take Tasmanian marine reserves. Results show that survival rates of C. rodgersii exposed on flat reef substratum by tethering were approximately seven times (small urchins 10.1 times; large urchins 6.1 times) lower on protected reef within marine reserve boundaries (high abundance of large predatory-capable lobsters) compared to fished reef (large predatory lobsters absent). When able to seek crevice shelter, tag-resighting models estimated that mortality rates of C. rodgersii were lower overall but remained 3.3 times (small urchins 2.1 times; large urchins 6.4 times) higher in the presence of large lobsters inside marine reserves, with higher survival of small urchins owing to greater access to crevices relative to large urchins. Indeed, shelter was 6.3 times and 3.1 times more important to survival of small and large urchins, respectively, on reserved relative to fished reef. Experimental results corroborate with surveys throughout the range extension region, showing greater occurrence of overgrazing on high-relief rocky habitats where shelter for C. rodgersii is readily available. This shows that ecosystem impacts mediated by range extension of such habitat-modifying organisms will be heterogeneous in space, and that marine systems with a more natural complement of large and thus

  9. Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Cloern, James E; Abreu, Paulo C; Carstensen, Jacob; Chauvaud, Laurent; Elmgren, Ragnar; Grall, Jacques; Greening, Holly; Johansson, John Olov Roger; Kahru, Mati; Sherwood, Edward T; Xu, Jie; Yin, Kedong

    2016-02-01

    Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines. PMID:26242490

  10. Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, James E.; Abreu, Paulo C.; Carstensen, Jacob; Chauvaud, Laurent; Elmgren, Ragnar; Grall, Jacques; Greening, Holly; Johansson, John O.R.; Kahru, Mati; Sherwood, Edward T.; Xu, Jie; Yin, Kedong

    2016-01-01

    Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

  11. Regional Climate Variations and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop Review

    EPA Science Inventory

    North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC), hosted the Regional Climate Variations and Change for ...

  12. Biogeochemistry of Hypersaline Springs Supporting a Mid-Continent Marine Ecosystem: An Analogue for Martian Springs?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasby, Stephen E.; Londry, Kathleen L.

    2007-08-01

    Hypersaline springs that host unique mid-continent marine ecosystems were examined in central Manitoba, Canada. The springs originate from a reflux of glacial meltwater that intrudes into underlying bedrock and dissolved buried salt beds. Two spring types were distinguished based both on flow rate and geochemistry. High flow springs (greater than 10 L/s) hosted extensive marine microbial mats, which were dominated by algae but also included diverse microbes. These varied somewhat between springs as indicated by changes in profiles of fatty acid methyl esters. Culture studies confirmed the presence of sulfate-reducing bacteria in sediments at the high flow sites. In contrast, low flow springs were affected by solar evaporation, increasing salinity, and temperature. These low flow springs behaved more like closed nutrient-limited systems and did not support microbial mats. Direct comparison of the high and low flow springs revealed interesting implications for the potential to record biosignatures in the rock record. High flow springs have abundant, well-developed microbial mats, which desiccate and are cemented along the edges of the spring pools; however, the high mass flux overwhelms any geochemical signature of microbial activity. In contrast, the nutrient-limited low flow sites develop strong geochemical signatures of sulfate reduction, even in the absence of microbial mats, due to less dilution with the lower flows. Geochemical and physical evidence for life did not correlate with the abundance of microbial life but, rather, with the extent to which the biological system formed a closed ecosystem.

  13. Activities of bioprotection systems of marine organisms representative of coastal ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea

    SciTech Connect

    Narbonne, J.F.; Garrigues, P.; Monod, J.L.; Lafaurie, M. )

    1988-09-01

    With a view to applying the biochemical tests under study to the monitoring of sea pollutants, they have created, together with a number of laboratories, the G.I.C.B.E.M. (Groupe Interface Chimie Biologie Ecosystemes Marins). The special characteristic of this program is to provide a global evaluation of the health of a marine ecosystem by studying in situ the correlations existing between the activity levels of bioprotection systems (biotransformation of organic pollutants, induction of metallothioneins) in coastal benthic organisms and the presence of potentially toxic molecules in the environment. A discerning selection of sampling sites in the Mediterranean exhibiting well-known pollution of various origins (heavy metals, HAP, PCB, lindane {hor ellipsis}) and at various degrees, should allow the determination of the bioprotection systems as well as of their activity levels. Thus, a global evaluation of the health of a given system and a quick warning as to the presence of potentially toxic substances in the environment will be made possible by applying a battery of suitable and simple tests on representative organisms.

  14. Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

    2015-12-01

    Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

  15. Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

    2016-07-01

    Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

  16. Transient Climate Simulation of DMS in the Marine Ocean - Atmosphere System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Six, K.; Stier, P.; Roeckner, E.

    2005-12-01

    Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is thought to be the major biogenic component of the global atmospheric sulphur burden. Phytoplankton produces dimethylsulphoniopropionate, which via enzymatic cleavage forms DMS in the seawater. Through sea-air exchange oceanic DMS enters the atmosphere. DMS in the atmosphere is oxidized to sulphate aerosols, which may impact climate directly through light scattering or indirectly through their role as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), thereby affecting the cloud albedo. It has been postulated that the Earth's climate is partly regulated by variation in DMS emissions through this DMS-CCN-albedo feedback. A reduced version of the "Hamburg Earth System Model" is used to study the feedback of DMS on climate in a transient climate simulation running from 1860 to 2100. The model includes a scheme of the DMS cycle in the ocean linked to the explicit simulation of plankton dynamics in the marine biogeochemistry model (MPI-OM/HAMOCC5). The DMS emissions are passed interactively to the atmosphere model (ECHAM5). The atmosphere model is extended by the microphysical aerosol model (HAM), which predicts the size distribution, the composition and mixing state of the aerosol components sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt and dust. These parameters are necessary for an inclusion of the radiative perturbations caused by aerosols in the radiation scheme of the atmospheric model. The transient evolution of black carbon, organic carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions are prescribed assuming for the future the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. DMS, dust and sea salt emissions are calculated interactively. Iron contained in dust deposited onto the ocean surface serves as a micronutrient for phytoplankton in the ocean and therefore influences the DMS production in the ocean. Phytoplankton growth is simulated to be light and temperature dependent. The simulated global warming between 1860 and 2100 affects the marine ecosystem and alters the DMS sea surface

  17. Biogeochemial Cycling and Ocean Climate in the Maastrichtian: a Coupled Ecosystem-Physical Climate Simulation Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, J.; Valdes, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Paleoclimate simulations of the Latest Cretaceous are presented, specifically for the Maastrichtian stage using the UK Met Office model HadCM3L. The vast majority of traditional paleoclimate simulation studies using General Circulation Models include representations of the atmosphere and ocean as well as a dynamic sea ice model. In this we study new presents model results from a GCM that also includes a detailed ocean biogeochemical scheme HadOCC. HadOCC is an ecosystem model, meaning it contains an explicit representation of planktonic species (both autotrophic phytoplankton and heterotrophic zooplankton) and is an NZPD model (Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Detritus). It is also able to simulate air-sea gas exchange and primary productivity in the surface and near-surface as well as full ecosystem interaction throughout the water column. Compared to the present day, the Latest Cretaceous represents a very different world, both in terms of its atmospheric composition and in the configuration of the continents. It also offers the prospect of studying a past warm climate with significantly enhanced CO2 levels compared to the preindustrial era. For the simulations presented here, atmospheric CO2 levels are set to be four times their preindustrial values (290 parts per million). The combination of a very different continental configuration and hugely enhanced atmospheric CO2 levels results in a very different climate from what we know today. To first order, ocean temperatures are significantly higher and circulation patterns are very different. The combination of these fundamentally important ocean properties means that the resulting biological activity (which will be shown in an annual mean and seasonal sense) is able to provide clues as to which oceanic areas were more biologically active than others. Because of the fully dynamic and coupled nature of the biology and physics of this modelling framework, surface and benthic processes (and their interactions

  18. Wetland Ecosystem Services Vary With Climate for Prairie Pothole Landscapes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Hydrology is the primary mechanism for the cyclic vegetation dynamics collectively known as the wetland cover cycle, which drives ecosystem services for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). These palustrine, depressional basin waters vacillate with regional drought and deluge, so surface water fluctuat...

  19. Marine ecosystems’ responses to climatic and anthropogenic forcings in the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durrieu de Madron, X.; Guieu, C.; Sempéré, R.; Conan, P.; Cossa, D.; D'Ortenzio, F.; Estournel, C.; Gazeau, F.; Rabouille, C.; Stemmann, L.; Bonnet, S.; Diaz, F.; Koubbi, P.; Radakovitch, O.; Babin, M.; Baklouti, M.; Bancon-Montigny, C.; Belviso, S.; Bensoussan, N.; Bonsang, B.; Bouloubassi, I.; Brunet, C.; Cadiou, J.-F.; Carlotti, F.; Chami, M.; Charmasson, S.; Charrière, B.; Dachs, J.; Doxaran, D.; Dutay, J.-C.; Elbaz-Poulichet, F.; Eléaume, M.; Eyrolles, F.; Fernandez, C.; Fowler, S.; Francour, P.; Gaertner, J. C.; Galzin, R.; Gasparini, S.; Ghiglione, J.-F.; Gonzalez, J.-L.; Goyet, C.; Guidi, L.; Guizien, K.; Heimbürger, L.-E.; Jacquet, S. H. M.; Jeffrey, W. H.; Joux, F.; Le Hir, P.; Leblanc, K.; Lefèvre, D.; Lejeusne, C.; Lemé, R.; Loÿe-Pilot, M.-D.; Mallet, M.; Méjanelle, L.; Mélin, F.; Mellon, C.; Mérigot, B.; Merle, P.-L.; Migon, C.; Miller, W. L.; Mortier, L.; Mostajir, B.; Mousseau, L.; Moutin, T.; Para, J.; Pérez, T.; Petrenko, A.; Poggiale, J.-C.; Prieur, L.; Pujo-Pay, M.; Pulido-Villena; Raimbault, P.; Rees, A. P.; Ridame, C.; Rontani, J.-F.; Ruiz Pino, D.; Sicre, M. A.; Taillandier, V.; Tamburini, C.; Tanaka, T.; Taupier-Letage, I.; Tedetti, M.; Testor, P.; Thébault, H.; Thouvenin, B.; Touratier, F.; Tronczynski, J.; Ulses, C.; Van Wambeke, F.; Vantrepotte, V.; Vaz, S.; Verney, R.; MerMex Group:

    2011-10-01

    The semi-enclosed nature of the Mediterranean Sea, together with its smaller inertia due to the relative short residence time of its water masses, make it highly reactive to external forcings, in particular variations of water, energy and matter fluxes at the interfaces. This region, which has been identified as a “hotspot” for climate change, is therefore expected to experience environmental impacts that are considerably greater than those in many other places around the world. These natural pressures interact with the increasing demographic and economic developments occurring heterogeneously in the coastal zone, making the Mediterranean even more sensitive. This review paper aims to provide a review of the state of current functioning and responses of Mediterranean marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems with respect to key natural and anthropogenic drivers and to consider the ecosystems’ responses to likely changes in physical, chemical and socio-economical forcings induced by global change and by growing anthropogenic pressure at the regional scale. The current knowledge on and expected changes due to single forcing (hydrodynamics, solar radiation, temperature and acidification, chemical contaminants) and combined forcing (nutrient sources and stoichiometry, extreme events) affecting the biogeochemical fluxes and ecosystem functioning are explored. Expected changes in biodiversity resulting from the combined action of the different forcings are proposed. Finally, modeling capabilities and necessity for modeling are presented. A synthesis of our current knowledge of expected changes is proposed, highlighting relevant questions for the future of the Mediterranean ecosystems that are current research priorities for the scientific community. Finally, we discuss how these priorities can be approached by national and international multi-disciplinary research, which should be implemented on several levels, including observational studies and modeling at

  20. Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems.

    PubMed

    Russell, Bayden D; Harley, Christopher D G; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Connell, Sean D

    2012-04-23

    Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317

  1. A novel approach to model exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to riverine flood plumes based on remote sensing techniques.

    PubMed

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Devlin, Michelle; Teixeira da Silva, Eduardo; Petus, Caroline; Ban, Natalie C; Pressey, Robert L; Kool, Johnathan; Roberts, Jason J; Cerdeira-Estrada, Sergio; Wenger, Amelia S; Brodie, Jon

    2013-04-15

    Increased loads of land-based pollutants are a major threat to coastal-marine ecosystems. Identifying the affected marine areas and the scale of influence on ecosystems is critical to assess the impacts of degraded water quality and to inform planning for catchment management and marine conservation. Studies using remotely-sensed data have contributed to our understanding of the occurrence and influence of river plumes, and to our ability to assess exposure of marine ecosystems to land-based pollutants. However, refinement of plume modeling techniques is required to improve risk assessments. We developed a novel, complementary, approach to model exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to land-based pollutants. We used supervised classification of MODIS-Aqua true-color satellite imagery to map the extent of plumes and to qualitatively assess the dispersal of pollutants in plumes. We used the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world's largest coral reef system, to test our approach. We combined frequency of plume occurrence with spatially distributed loads (based on a cost-distance function) to create maps of exposure to suspended sediment and dissolved inorganic nitrogen. We then compared annual exposure maps (2007-2011) to assess inter-annual variability in the exposure of coral reefs and seagrass beds to these pollutants. We found this method useful to map plumes and qualitatively assess exposure to land-based pollutants. We observed inter-annual variation in exposure of ecosystems to pollutants in the GBR, stressing the need to incorporate a temporal component into plume exposure/risk models. Our study contributes to our understanding of plume spatial-temporal dynamics of the GBR and offers a method that can also be applied to monitor exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to plumes and explore their ecological influences. PMID:23500022

  2. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    PubMed

    Vorsino, Adam E; Fortini, Lucas B; Amidon, Fred A; Miller, Stephen E; Jacobi, James D; Price, Jonathan P; Gon, Sam 'ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions. PMID:24805254

  3. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    PubMed

    Vorsino, Adam E; Fortini, Lucas B; Amidon, Fred A; Miller, Stephen E; Jacobi, James D; Price, Jonathan P; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions. PMID:24991934

  4. Modeling Hawaiian Ecosystem Degradation due to Invasive Plants under Current and Future Climates

    PubMed Central

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; Gon, Sam 'Ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions. PMID:24805254

  5. Effects of Past Climate Changes on Ecosystem Biogeochemical Cycles in Rocky Mountain Forests and Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuman, B.; Mechenich, M. F.; Stefanova, I.; Henderson, A.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2007-12-01

    Ongoing climate trends will likely alter how forest ecosystems produce important goods and services, in part, by changing ecosystem responses to disturbances, such as fires and land-use. Disturbances induce forest succession and thus dramatically change the flow of water and nutrients through a given ecosystem. However, long-term ecosystem responses to disturbance, especially regarding nutrient pools and cycling rates, are poorly documented, and less is known about the effects of century-scale climate trends on these responses especially with respect to moisture. Here, we show biogeochemical responses to repeated (>20) episodes of disturbance and succession in a single ecosystem under a range of climatic conditions over 2000 years. Our lake sediment record shows regular fluctuations in the flux of base cations and other macronutrients from lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta) forests in northern Colorado following catastrophic stand-replacing fires. Post-fire elemental fluctuations are consistent with ecosystem theory regarding the re-equilibration of biomass and nutrient pools during succession, but show systematic variation that has been previously undocumented. The time span of post-fire re-equilibration correlates positively with measures of fire severity, which is consistent with hypotheses that seed dispersal and soil recovery likely slow re-growth after large or severe fires. Likewise, dry conditions during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA, 1200-500 yrs BP) altered elemental fluctuations and, thus, generated post-fire pulses of lake eutrophication that were not evident during other periods. The interaction of climate and disturbance, therefore, has important consequences for ecosystem function and services, including the quality of aquatic environments.

  6. Steep spatial gradients of volcanic and marine sulfur in Hawaiian rainfall and ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bern, Carleton R.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Kendall, Carol; Pribil, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Sulfur, a nutrient required by terrestrial ecosystems, is likely to be regulated by atmospheric processes in well-drained, upland settings because of its low concentration in most bedrock and generally poor retention by inorganic reactions within soils. Environmental controls on sulfur sources in unpolluted ecosystems have seldom been investigated in detail, even though the possibility of sulfur limiting primary production is much greater where atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic sulfur is low. Here we measure sulfur isotopic compositions of soils, vegetation and bulk atmospheric deposition from the Hawaiian Islands for the purpose of tracing sources of ecosystem sulfur. Hawaiian lava has a mantle-derived sulfur isotopic composition (δ34S VCDT) of − 0.8‰. Bulk deposition on the island of Maui had a δ34S VCDT that varied temporally, spanned a range from + 8.2 to + 19.7‰, and reflected isotopic mixing from three sources: sea-salt (+ 21.1‰), marine biogenic emissions (+ 15.6‰), and volcanic emissions from active vents on Kilauea Volcano (+ 0.8‰). A straightforward, weathering-driven transition in ecosystem sulfur sources could be interpreted in the shift from relatively low (0.0 to + 2.7‰) to relatively high (+ 17.8 to + 19.3‰) soil δ34S values along a 0.3 to 4100 ka soil age-gradient, and similar patterns in associated vegetation. However, sub-kilometer scale spatial variation in soil sulfur isotopic composition was found along soil transects assumed by age and mass balance to be dominated by atmospheric sulfur inputs. Soil sulfur isotopic compositions ranged from + 8.1 to + 20.3‰ and generally decreased with increasing elevation (0–2000 m), distance from the coast (0–12 km), and annual rainfall (180–5000 mm). Such trends reflect the spatial variation in marine versus volcanic inputs from atmospheric deposition. Broadly, these results illustrate how the sources and magnitude of atmospheric deposition can exert controls

  7. Effects of exotic fish farms on bird communities in lake and marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Jiménez, Jaime E; Arriagada, Aldo M; Fontúrbel, Francisco E; Camus, Patricio A; Avila-Thieme, M Isidora

    2013-08-01

    Salmon farming is a widespread activity around the world, also known to promote diverse environmental effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, information regarding the impact of salmon farming on bird assemblages is notably scarce. We hypothesize that salmon farming, by providing food subsidies and physical structures to birds, will change their local community structure. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a seasonal monitoring of bird richness, abundance, and composition at paired salmon pen and control plots in two marine and two lake sites in southern Chile, from fall 2002 to summer 2004. Overall, salmon farming had no significant effects on species richness, but bird abundance was significantly and noticeably higher in salmon pens than in controls. Such aggregation was mainly accounted for by the trophic guilds of omnivores, diving piscivores, carrion eaters, and perching piscivores, but not by invertebrate feeders, herbivores, and surface feeders. Species composition was also significantly and persistently different between salmon pens and controls within each lake or marine locality. The patterns described above remained consistent across environment types and seasons indicating that salmon farming is changing the community structure of birds in both lake and marine habitats by promoting functional and aggregation responses, particularly by favoring species with broader niches. Such local patterns may thus anticipate potential threats from the ongoing expansion of the salmon industry to neighboring areas in Chile, resulting in regional changes of bird communities, toward a less diverse one and dominated by opportunistic, common, and generalist species such as gulls, vultures, and cormorants. PMID:23817947

  8. Offshore Texas and Louisiana marine ecosystems data synthesis. Volume 1: Executive Summary. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, N.W.; James, B.M.

    1988-11-01

    This study provided a synthesis of available environmental information for the continental shelf from the shallow sublittoral to a depth of 500 m for the area between Corpus Christi Bay, Texas and the Mississippi River Delta. Results of the study are given in three volumes: Executive Summary (Volume I), Synthesis Report (Volume II), and Annotated Bibliography (Volume III). The Synthesis Report consists of separate chapters devoted to marine geology, physical oceanography and meteorology, marine chemistry, marine biology, socioeconomics, and conceptual modeling of the area's major ecosystems with emphasis on the environmental effects of oil and gas operations. There is a summary of data gaps and information needs and suggestions for future field studies. The annotated bibliography, which contains 1,535 references, was compiled through a combination of computer searches, telephone contacts, library visits, and submissions from chapter authors. The bibliographic data set is presented in hard copy and on IBM-compatible floppy disks that have been indexed with a computer program (FYI 3000 Plus) to allow searching by author, date, topic and geographic keywords, or words in the title, source, or annotation.

  9. Marine Habitat Classification for Ecosystem-Based Management: A Proposed Hierarchical Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guarinello, Marisa L.; Shumchenia, Emily J.; King, John W.

    2010-04-01

    Creating a habitat classification and mapping system for marine and coastal ecosystems is a daunting challenge due to the complex array of habitats that shift on various spatial and temporal scales. To meet this challenge, several countries have, or are developing, national classification systems and mapping protocols for marine habitats. To be effectively applied by scientists and managers it is essential that classification systems be comprehensive and incorporate pertinent physical, geological, biological, and anthropogenic habitat characteristics. Current systems tend to provide over-simplified conceptual structures that do not capture biological habitat complexity, marginalize anthropogenic features, and remain largely untested at finer scales. We propose a multi-scale hierarchical framework with a particular focus on finer scale habitat classification levels and conceptual schematics to guide habitat studies and management decisions. A case study using published data is included to compare the proposed framework with existing schemes. The example demonstrates how the proposed framework’s inclusion of user-defined variables, a combined top-down and bottom-up approach, and multi-scale hierarchical organization can facilitate examination of marine habitats and inform management decisions.

  10. Effects of exotic fish farms on bird communities in lake and marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez, Jaime E.; Arriagada, Aldo M.; Fontúrbel, Francisco E.; Camus, Patricio A.; Ávila-Thieme, M. Isidora

    2013-08-01

    Salmon farming is a widespread activity around the world, also known to promote diverse environmental effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, information regarding the impact of salmon farming on bird assemblages is notably scarce. We hypothesize that salmon farming, by providing food subsidies and physical structures to birds, will change their local community structure. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a seasonal monitoring of bird richness, abundance, and composition at paired salmon pen and control plots in two marine and two lake sites in southern Chile, from fall 2002 to summer 2004. Overall, salmon farming had no significant effects on species richness, but bird abundance was significantly and noticeably higher in salmon pens than in controls. Such aggregation was mainly accounted for by the trophic guilds of omnivores, diving piscivores, carrion eaters, and perching piscivores, but not by invertebrate feeders, herbivores, and surface feeders. Species composition was also significantly and persistently different between salmon pens and controls within each lake or marine locality. The patterns described above remained consistent across environment types and seasons indicating that salmon farming is changing the community structure of birds in both lake and marine habitats by promoting functional and aggregation responses, particularly by favoring species with broader niches. Such local patterns may thus anticipate potential threats from the ongoing expansion of the salmon industry to neighboring areas in Chile, resulting in regional changes of bird communities, toward a less diverse one and dominated by opportunistic, common, and generalist species such as gulls, vultures, and cormorants.

  11. Persistent natural acidification drives major distribution shifts in marine benthic ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Linares, C; Vidal, M; Canals, M; Kersting, D K; Amblas, D; Aspillaga, E; Cebrián, E; Delgado-Huertas, A; Díaz, D; Garrabou, J; Hereu, B; Navarro, L; Teixidó, N; Ballesteros, E

    2015-11-01

    Ocean acidification is receiving increasing attention because of its potential to affect marine ecosystems. Rare CO2 vents offer a unique opportunity to investigate the response of benthic ecosystems to acidification. However, the benthic habitats investigated so far are mainly found at very shallow water (less than or equal to 5 m depth) and therefore are not representative of the broad range of continental shelf habitats. Here, we show that a decrease from pH 8.1 to 7.9 observed in a CO2 vent system at 40 m depth leads to a dramatic shift in highly diverse and structurally complex habitats. Forests of the kelp Laminaria rodriguezii usually found at larger depths (greater than 65 m) replace the otherwise dominant habitats (i.e. coralligenous outcrops and rhodolith beds), which are mainly characterized by calcifying organisms. Only the aragonite-calcifying algae are able to survive in acidified waters, while high-magnesium-calcite organisms are almost completely absent. Although a long-term survey of the venting area would be necessary to fully understand the effects of the variability of pH and other carbonate parameters over the structure and functioning of the investigated mesophotic habitats, our results suggest that in addition of significant changes at species level, moderate ocean acidification may entail major shifts in the distribution and dominance of key benthic ecosystems at regional scale, which could have broad ecological and socio-economic implications. PMID:26511045

  12. Porting marine ecosystem model spin-up using transport matrices to GPUs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siewertsen, E.; Piwonski, J.; Slawig, T.

    2013-01-01

    We have ported an implementation of the spin-up for marine ecosystem models based on transport matrices to graphics processing units (GPUs). The original implementation was designed for distributed-memory architectures and uses the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) library that is based on the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard. The spin-up computes a steady seasonal cycle of ecosystem tracers with climatological ocean circulation data as forcing. Since the transport is linear with respect to the tracers, the resulting operator is represented by matrices. Each iteration of the spin-up involves two matrix-vector multiplications and the evaluation of the used biogeochemical model. The original code was written in C and Fortran. On the GPU, we use the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) standard, a customized version of PETSc and a commercial CUDA Fortran compiler. We describe the extensions to PETSc and the modifications of the original C and Fortran codes that had to be done. Here we make use of freely available libraries for the GPU. We analyze the computational effort of the main parts of the spin-up for two exemplar ecosystem models and compare the overall computational time to those necessary on different CPUs. The results show that a consumer GPU can compete with a significant number of cluster CPUs without further code optimization.

  13. Biological modifiers of marine benthic seascapes: Their role as ecosystem engineers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meadows, Peter S.; Meadows, Azra; Murray, John M. H.

    2012-07-01

    Benthic organisms in marine ecosystems modify the environment on different spatial and temporal scales. These modifications, many of which are initially at a microscale, are likely to have large scale effects on benthic seascapes. This is especially so if the species are ecosystem engineers. Most species of infaunal and epifaunal invertebrates and macrophytes contribute at a geophysical or geochemical level. Microorganisms also play a key but currently neglected role. In the intertidal and immediately sublittoral zone, algae and seagrasses, and mussels in mussel beds have received considerable attention. A substantial fossil record also exists. Mathematical modelling of these systems is still in its infancy, although several sophisticated mathematical tools have been applied. The effects of bioturbation and of microorganisms have been less studied, and little is known about the activities of benthic organisms in the deep sea. This paper addresses all these effects, and places them in the context of large scale benthic seascapes and of the extensive literature on species defined as ecosystem engineers in the sea.

  14. Porting marine ecosystem model spin-up using transport matrices to GPUs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siewertsen, E.; Piwonski, J.; Slawig, T.

    2012-07-01

    We have ported an implementation of the spin-up for marine ecosystem models based on the "Transport Matrix Method" to graphics processing units (GPUs). The original implementation was designed for distributed-memory architectures and uses the PETSc library that is based on the "Message Passing Interface (MPI)" standard. The spin-up computes a steady seasonal cycle of the ecosystem tracers with climatological ocean circulation data as forcing. Since the transport is linear with respect to the tracers, the resulting operator is represented in so-called "transport matrices". Each iteration of the spin-up involves two matrix-vector multiplications and the evaluation of the used biogeochemical model. The original code was written in C and Fortran. On the GPU, we use the CUDA standard, a specialized version of the PETSc toolkit and a CUDA Fortran compiler. We describe the extensions to PETSc and the modifications of the original C and Fortran codes that had to be done. Here we make use of freely available libraries for the GPU. We analyze the computational effort of the main parts of the spin-up for two exemplary ecosystem models and compare the overall computational time to those necessary on different CPUs. The results show that a consumer GPU can beat a significant number of cluster CPUs without further code optimization.

  15. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

    PubMed Central

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-01-01

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. PMID:26336179

  16. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

    PubMed

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-09-01

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. PMID:26336179

  17. Vulnerability to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services of boreal forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmberg, Maria; Rankinen, Katri; Aalto, Tuula; Akujärvi, Anu; Nadir Arslan, Ali; Liski, Jari; Markkanen, Tiina; Mäkelä, Annikki; Peltoniemi, Mikko

    2016-04-01

    Boreal forests provide an array of ecosystem services. They regulate climate, and carbon, water and nutrient fluxes, and provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming is projected for the boreal zone, and has already been observed in Finland, which sets these services at risk. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409, 2.9.2013 - 1.9.2017) is a project funded by EU Life programme about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone Applying Innovative Observation and Modeling Techniques. The coordinating beneficiary of the project is the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Associated beneficiaries are the Natural Resources Institute Finland, the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Helsinki. In the MONIMET project, we use state-of-the-art models and new monitoring methods to investigate the impacts of a warming climate on the provision of ecosystem services of boreal forests. This poster presents results on carbon storage in soil and assessment of drought indices, as a preparation for assessing the vulnerability of society to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services. The risk of decreasing provision of ecosystem services depends on the sensitivity of the ecosystem as well as its exposure to climate stress. The vulnerability of society, in turn, depends on the risk of decreasing provision of a certain service in combination with society's demand for that service. In the next phase, we will look for solutions to challenges relating to the quantification of the demand for ecosystem services and differences in spatial extent and resolution of the information on future supply and demand.

  18. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2013-12-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5-19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980-2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

  19. Ecohydrology of adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems: the consequences of climate change and disturbance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.

    2014-01-01

    Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance.

  20. Permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude ecosystems: evidence from the Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Y.; Ding, J.; Han, T.; Peng, Y.; Li, F.; Chen, L.; Chen, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost carbon-climate feedback has received particular interest from the global change research community. However, current evidence is mainly derived from high-latitude ecosystems, with little known about high-altitude ecosystems. In this study, we examined permafrost carbon-climate feedback in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau from the following three aspects. First, we evaluated soil carbon stock in the top 3 meter by conducting a large-scale soil survey across the study area during the summer of 2013-2014. We found that Tibetan grassland soils store 10.4 Pg C in the upper 3 meter, ~40% larger than previous estimation in the top 1 meter. Second, we examined large-scale patterns of temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition in alpine ecosystems by conducting laboratory incubation experiments, and found that greater temperature sensitivity occurred in those soils with more recalcitrant components. Third, we explored the responses of carbon cycling processes in alpine grasslands to climate warming by conducting OTC experiments. We found that experimental warming stimulated ecosystem respiration, but also increased gross primary production, and thus led to the net carbon accumulation. Overall, these three lines of evidence demonstrate that carbon cycle in high-altitude ecosystems is very sensitive to climate warming.

  1. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

    PubMed

    Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2016-01-19

    Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

  2. Current Status and Future Prospects for the Assessment of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G.; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis

    2013-01-01

    Background Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. Methodology/Principal Findings We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. Conclusions/Significance This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies. PMID:23844080

  3. Response of plants and ecosystems to CO{sub 2} and climate change. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.

    1993-12-31

    In recognition of the important role of vegetation in the bio-geosphere carbon cycle, the Carbon Dioxide Research Program of the US Department of Energy established the research program: Direct Effects of increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. The ultimate goal is to develop a general ecosystem model to investigate, via hypothesis testing, the potential responses of different terrestrial ecosystems to changes in the global environment over the next century. The approach involves the parallel development of models at several hierarchical levels, from the leaf to the ecosystem. At the plant level, mechanism and the direct effects of CO{sub 2} in the development of a general plant growth model, GEPSI - GEneral Plant SImulator has been stressed. At the ecosystem level, we have stressed the translation Of CO{sub 2} effects and other aspects of climate change throughout the ecosystem, including feedbacks and constraints to system response, in the development of a mechanistic, general ecosystem model SERECO - Simulation of Ecosystem Response to Elevated CO{sub 2} and Climate Change has been stressed.

  4. Restoration of marine ecosystems following the end-Permian mass extinction: pattern and dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Life came closest to complete annihilation during the end-Permian mass extinction (EPME). Pattern and cause of this great dying have long been disputed. Similarly, there is also some debate on the recovery rate and pattern of marine organisms in the aftermath of the EPME. Some clades recovered rapidly, within the first 1-3 Myr of the Triassic. For instance, foraminiferal recovery began 1 Myr into the Triassic and was not much affected by Early Triassic crises. Further, some earliest Triassic body and trace fossil assemblages are also more diverse than predicted. Others, ie. Brachiopods, corals etc., however, did not rebound until the Middle Triassic. In addition, although ammonoids recovered fast, reaching a higher diversity by the Smithian than in the Late Permian, much of this Early Triassic radiation was within a single group, the Ceratitina, and their morphological disparity did not expand until the end-Spathian. Here, I like to broaden the modern ecologic network model to explore the complete trophic structure of fossilized ecosystems during the Permian-Triassic transition as a means of assessing the recovery. During the Late Permian and Early Triassic, primary producers, forming the lowest trophic level, were microbes. The middle part of the food web comprises primary and meso-consumer trophic levels, the former dominated by microorganisms such as foraminifers, the latter by opportunistic communities (i.e. disaster taxa), benthic shelly communities, and reef-builders. They were often consumed by invertebrate and vertebrate predators, the top trophic level. Fossil record from South China shows that the post-extinction ecosystems were degraded to a low level and typified by primary producers or opportunistic consumers, which are represented by widespread microbialites or high-abundance, low-diversity communities. Except for some opportunists, primary consumers, namely foraminifers, rebounded in Smithian. Trace-makers recovered in Spathian, which also saw

  5. ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butenschön, Momme; Clark, James; Aldridge, John N.; Icarus Allen, Julian; Artioli, Yuri; Blackford, Jeremy; Bruggeman, Jorn; Cazenave, Pierre; Ciavatta, Stefano; Kay, Susan; Lessin, Gennadi; van Leeuwen, Sonja; van der Molen, Johan; de Mora, Lee; Polimene, Luca; Sailley, Sevrine; Stephens, Nicholas; Torres, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simulations from shelf seas to the global ocean. The current model release contains all essential elements for the pelagic and benthic parts of the marine ecosystem, including the microbial food web, the carbonate system, and calcification. Its distribution is accompanied by a testing framework enabling the analysis of individual parts of the model. Here we provide a detailed mathematical description of all ERSEM components along with case studies of mesocosm-type simulations, water column implementations, and a brief example of a full-scale application for the north-western European shelf. Validation against in situ data demonstrates the capability of the model to represent the marine ecosystem in contrasting environments.

  6. Hypoxia and acidification in ocean ecosystems: coupled dynamics and effects on marine life.

    PubMed

    Gobler, Christopher J; Baumann, Hannes

    2016-05-01

    There is increasing recognition that low dissolved oxygen (DO) and low pH conditions co-occur in many coastal and open ocean environments. Within temperate ecosystems, these conditions not only develop seasonally as temperatures rise and metabolic rates accelerate, but can also display strong diurnal variability, especially in shallow systems where photosynthetic rates ameliorate hypoxia and acidification by day. Despite the widespread, global co-occurrence of low pH and low DO and the likelihood that these conditions may negatively impact marine life, very few studies have actually assessed the extent to which the combination of both stressors elicits additive, synergistic or antagonistic effects in marine organisms. We review the evidence from published factorial experiments that used static and/or fluctuating pH and DO levels to examine different traits (e.g. survival, growth, metabolism), life stages and species across a broad taxonomic spectrum. Additive negative effects of combined low pH and low DO appear to be most common; however, synergistic negative effects have also been observed. Neither the occurrence nor the strength of these synergistic impacts is currently predictable, and therefore, the true threat of concurrent acidification and hypoxia to marine food webs and fisheries is still not fully understood. Addressing this knowledge gap will require an expansion of multi-stressor approaches in experimental and field studies, and the development of a predictive framework. In consideration of marine policy, we note that DO criteria in coastal waters have been developed without consideration of concurrent pH levels. Given the persistence of concurrent low pH-low DO conditions in estuaries and the increased mortality experienced by fish and bivalves under concurrent acidification and hypoxia compared with hypoxia alone, we conclude that such DO criteria may leave coastal fisheries more vulnerable to population reductions than previously anticipated. PMID

  7. Data Assimilation In A Marine Ecosystem Coupled To A Mixed Layer Model of The Upper Ocean.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magri, S.; Brasseur, P.; Lacroix, G.

    Data assimilation have been conducted in a one-dimensional, coupled physical ecosys- tem model of the upper ocean to characterize the observability properties of in situ and satellite observing systems. The assimilation method is based on the Singular Evolu- tive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, in which the error sub-space is decomposed into multivariate orthogonal functions of the system's variability. The coupled model simulates the primary production in a coastal zone of the Ligurian Sea, where oligotrophic conditions prevail. The ecosystem dynamics is represented by 12 interacting compartments expressed in nitrogen units. The coupling with a hydrodynamic model determines the physical constraints asso- ciated to the development of a seasonal mixed layer. The stratification of the water column, according to the computation of the vertical turbulent diffusivities, is a key parameter of the evolution of the marine ecosystem. The coupled system has been developed and validated on the basis of field data col- lected during the FRONTAL campains, between 1984 and 1988. As a first approach, twin experiments are performed to check the algorithmic imple- mentation of the SEEK filter, and to verify the statistical consistence of the assimila- tion scheme in non-linear regimes. Vertical temperature and salinity profiles have been assimilated to evaluate the impact of a better representation of the water column strat- ification on the primary production. Then, nitrate and chlorophyll-a profiles have been assimilated to try to control the ecosystem in spite of an imperfect physical model. Finally, physical and biological profiles of in situ data collected during the FRONTAL campains, will be used to reconstruct the seasonal evolution of the ecosystem.

  8. Urbanization, Climate Change, and Changes to Ecosystem Services in Coastal Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutton, P. C.; Costanza, R.; Roman, J.; Kubiszewski, I.

    2011-12-01

    We examine the history and status of ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas (LLCA's), how they might change in the future in particular because of urbanization and wider environmental and social changes, and what the implications of these changes might be for the migration of humans. We synthesized information from a number of sources on the status and value of ecosystem services in LLCA's, including information about key ecosystems that are likely to be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. We created maps of ecosystem and human population changes in LLCA's and then estimated changes in ecosystem services. We developed four scenarios for future ecosystem and ecosystem services conditions in 2060, based on the four SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios with additional reference to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Great Transition Initiative scenarios. The two axes of the SRES scenarios are global vs. regional and material economy vs. environment foci. This allowed an assessment of the plausible range of future uncertainty about ecosystem services in LLCA's and the potential for changes in ecosystem services to drive human migration. Major findings include: 1) Coastal ecosystems are among the most productive on the planet. They provide more than 70% of total global ecosystem services; 2) At the same time, these systems are the most threatened by climate change, human settlement and potential coastward migration; 3) In the mid 1990's, approximately 25 million people were forced to leave their homelands due to the inability to secure a livelihood as ecosystem services declined; 4) In the coming decades, one estimate puts the number at 240-525 million people who may feel impelled to migrate due to loss of ecosystem services; 5) Risk factors for coastal populations include overexploitation of resources, including fisheries; destruction of mangroves, wetlands, and other natural infrastructure; increased storm activity and

  9. Interannual variability of the early summer circulation around the Balearic Islands: Driving factors and potential effects on the marine ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Flexas, M. M.; Reglero, P.; Vélez-Velchí, P.; González-Pola, C.; Rodríguez, J. M.; García, A.; Alemany, F.

    2014-10-01

    Six summer surveys conducted from 2001 to 2005 and in 2012 by the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) reveal that the hydrographic early summer scenarios around the Balearic Islands are related to the winter atmospheric forcing in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. The Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean Sea) lie at the transition between the southern, fresher, newly arrived Atlantic Waters (AWs) and the northern, saltier, resident AW. The meridional position of the salinity driven oceanic density front separating the new from the resident AW is determined by the presence/absence of Western Intermediate Water (WIW) in the Mallorca and Ibiza channels. When WIW is present in the channels, the oceanic density front is found either at the south of the islands, or along the Emile Baudot escarpment. In contrast, when WIW is absent, new AW progresses northwards crossing the Ibiza channel and/or the Mallorca channel. In this later scenario, the oceanic density front is closer to the Balearic Islands. A good correspondence exists between standardized winter air temperature anomaly in the Gulf of Lions and the presence of WIW in the channels. We discuss the use of a regional climatic index based on these parameters to forecast in a first-order approach the position of the oceanic front, as it is expected to have high impact on the regional marine ecosystem.

  10. Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, David A.; Helfrich, J. V. K., III; Moore, B., III; Vorosmarty, C.J.

    1998-01-01

    The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Nino episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Nino years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation in the Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.

  11. Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Su, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-12-01

    Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and

  12. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resou