Science.gov

Sample records for model gsam annual

  1. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM). Annual report, July 1996--July 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-12-31

    The objective of GSAM development is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the system, including the resource base, exploration and development practices, extraction technology performance and costs, project economics, transportation costs and restrictions, storage, and end-use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and subreservoir level. This disaggregation allows direct evaluation of alternative extraction technologies based on discretely estimated, individual well productivity, required investments, and associated operating costs. GSAM`s design allows users to evaluate complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives as they directly impact the gas market. GSAM development has been ongoing for the past five years. Key activities completed during the past year are described.

  2. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM). Annual report, January 1994--January 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1994-07-01

    The objective of GSAM development is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the system, including the resource base, exploration and development practices, extraction technology performance and costs, project economics, transportation costs and restrictions, storage, and end-use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and sub-reservoir level. This disaggregation allows direct evaluation of alternative extraction technologies based on discretely estimated, individual well productivity, required investments, and associated operating costs. GSAM`s design allows users to evaluate complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives as they directly impact the gas market. Key activities completed during the past year include: conducted a comparative analysis of commercial reservoir databases; licensed and screened NRG Associates Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the US reservoir database; developed and tested reduced form reservoir model production type curves; fully developed database structures for use in GSAM and linkage to other systems; developed a methodology for the exploration module; collected and updated upstream capital and operating cost parameters; completed initial integration of downstream/demand models; presented research results at METC Contractor Review Meeting; conducted other briefings for METC managers, including initiation of the GSAM Environmental Module; and delivered draft topical reports on technology review, model review, and GSAM methodology.

  3. Development of a natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    Lacking a detailed characterization of the resource base and a comprehensive borehole-to-burnertip evaluation model of the North American natural gas system, past R&D, tax and regulatory policies have been formulated without a full understanding of their likely direct and indirect impacts on future gas supply and demand. The recent disappearance of the deliverability surplus, pipeline deregulation, and current policy debates about regulatory initiatives in taxation, environmental compliance and leasing make the need for a comprehensive gas evaluation system critical. Traditional econometric or highly aggregated energy models are increasingly regarded as unable to incorporate available geologic detail and explicit technology performance and costing algorithms necessary to evaluate resource-technology-economic interactions in a market context. The objective of this research is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the natural gas system, including resource base, exploration and development, extraction technology performance and costs, transportation and storage and end use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and sub-reservoir level and the impact of alternative extraction technologies on well productivity and economics. GSAM evaluates the complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives in the context of the evolving gas markets. Scheduled for completion in 1995, a prototype is planned for early 1994. ICF Resources reviewed relevant natural gas upstream, downstream and market models to identify appropriate analytic capabilities to incorporate into GSAM. We have reviewed extraction technologies to better characterize performance and costs in terms of GSAM parameters.

  4. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM). Annual report, July 1994--June 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-01

    North American natural gas markets have changed dramatically over the past decade. A competitive, cost-conscious production, transportation, and distribution system has emerged from the highly regulated transportation wellhead pricing structure of the 1980`s. Technology advances have played an important role in the evolution of the gas industry, a role likely to expand substantially as alternative fuel price competition and a maturing natural gas resource base force operators to maximize efficiency. Finally, significant changes continue in regional gas demand patterns, industry practices, and infrastructure needs. As the complexity of the gas system grows so does the need to evaluate and plan for alternative future resource, technology, and market scenarios. Traditional gas modeling systems focused solely on the econometric aspects of gas marketing. These systems, developed to assess a regulated industry at a high level of aggregation, rely on simple representation of complex and evolving systems, thereby precluding insight into how the industry will change over time. Credible evaluations of specific policy initiatives and research activities require a different approach. Also, the mounting pressure on energy producers from environmental compliance activities requires development of analysis that incorporates relevant geologic, engineering, and project economic details. The objective of policy, research and development (R&D), and market analysis is to integrate fundamental understanding of natural gas resources, technology, and markets to fully describe the potential of the gas resource under alternative future scenarios. This report summarizes work over the past twelve months on DOE Contract DE-AC21-92MC28138, Development of a Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The products developed under this project directly support the Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) in carrying out its natural gas R&D mission.

  5. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    1999-10-01

    This report provides an overview of the activities to date and schedule for future testing, validation, and authorized enhancements of Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The goal of this report is to inform DOE managers of progress in model development and to provide a benchmark for ongoing and future research. Section II of the report provides a detailed discussion on the major GSAM development programs performed and completed during the period of performance, July 1, 1998 to September 30, 1999. Key improvements in the new GSAM version are summarized in Section III. Programmer's guides for GSAM main modules were produced to provide detailed descriptions of all major subroutines and main variables of the computer code. General logical flowcharts of the subroutines are also presented in the guides to provide overall picture of interactions between the subroutines. A standard structure of routine explanation is applied in every programmer's guide. The explanation is started with a brief description or main purpose of the routine, lists of input and output files read and created, and lists of invoked/child and calling/parent routines. In some of the guides, interactions between the routine itself and its parent and child routines are presented in the form of graphical flowchart. The explanation is then proceeded with step by step description of computer code in the subroutine where each step delegates a section of related code. Between steps, if a certain section of code needs further explanation, a Note is inserted with relevant explanation.

  6. Development of a gas systems analysis model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    Godec, M.L.

    1995-04-01

    The objectives of developing a Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM) are to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, PC based model of domestic gas industry activity. The system is capable of assessing the impacts of various changes in the natural gas system within North America. The individual and collective impacts due to changes in technology and economic conditions are explicitly modeled in GSAM. Major gas resources are all modeled, including conventional, tight, Devonian Shale, coalbed methane, and low-quality gas sources. The modeling system asseses all key components of the gas industry, including available resources, exploration, drilling, completion, production, and processing practices, both for now and in the future. The model similarly assesses the distribution, storage, and utilization of natural gas in a dynamic market-based analytical structure. GSAM is designed to provide METC managers with a tool to project the impacts of future research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) benefits in order to determine priorities in a rapidly changing, market-driven gas industry.

  7. Development of a natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    Godec, M.; Haas, M.; Pepper, W.; Rose, J.

    1993-12-31

    Recent dramatic changes in natural gas markets have significant implications for the scope and direction of DOE`s upstream as well as downstream natural gas R&D. Open access transportation changes the way gas is bought and sold. The end of the gas deliverability surplus requires increased reserve development above recent levels. Increased gas demand for power generation and other new uses changes the overall demand picture in terms of volumes, locations and seasonality. DOE`s Natural Gas Strategic Plan requires that its R&D activities be evaluated for their ability to provide adequate supplies of reasonably priced gas. Potential R&D projects are to be evaluated using a full fuel cycle, benefit-cost approach to estimate likely market impact as well as technical success. To assure R&D projects are evaluated on a comparable basis, METC has undertaken the development of a comprehensive natural gas technology evaluation framework. Existing energy systems models lack the level of detail required to estimate the impact of specific upstream natural gas technologies across the known range of geological settings and likely market conditions. Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM) research during FY 1993 developed and implemented this comprehensive, consistent natural gas system evaluation framework. Rather than a isolated research activity, however, GSAM represents the integration of many prior and ongoing natural gas research efforts. When complete, it will incorporate the most current resource base description, reservoir modeling, technology characterization and other geologic and engineering aspects developed through recent METC and industry gas R&D programs.

  8. DEVELOPMENT OF A NATURAL GAS SYSTEMS ANALYSIS MODEL (GSAM) VOLUME I - SUMMARY REPORT VOLUME II - USER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIA - RP PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIB - SRPM PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIC - E&P PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIID - D&I PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Unknown

    2001-02-01

    This report summarizes work completed on DOE Contract DE-AC21-92MC28138, Development of a Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The products developed under this project directly support the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in carrying out its natural gas R&D mission. The objective of this research effort has been to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas market. GSAM has been developed to explicitly evaluate components of the natural gas system, including the entire in-place gas resource base, exploration and development technologies, extraction technology and performance parameters, transportation and storage factors, and end-use demand issues. The system has been fully tested and calibrated and has been used for multiple natural gas metrics analyses at NETL in which metric associated with NETL natural gas upstream R&D technologies and strategies under the direction of NETL has been evaluated. NETL's Natural Gas Strategic Plan requires that R&D activities be evaluated for their ability to provide adequate supplies of reasonably priced natural gas. GSAM provides the capability to assess potential and on-going R&D projects using a full fuel cycle, cost-benefit approach. This method yields realistic, market-based assessments of benefits and costs of alternative or related technology advances. GSAM is capable of estimating both technical and commercial successes, quantifying the potential benefits to the market, as well as to other related research. GSAM, therefore, represents an integration of research activities and a method for planning and prioritizing efforts to maximize benefits and minimize costs. Without an analytical tool like GSAM, NETL natural gas upstream R&D activities cannot be appropriately ranked or focused on the most important aspects of natural gas extraction efforts or utilization considerations.

  9. 48 CFR 501.404-71 - Deviations to the nonregulatory GSAM.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Deviations to the nonregulatory GSAM. 501.404-71 Section 501.404-71 Federal Acquisition Regulations System GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION GENERAL GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION ACQUISITION REGULATION SYSTEM Deviations From the FAR...

  10. A generalized approach to the modeling of the species-area relationship.

    PubMed

    Conceição, Katiane Silva; Ulrich, Werner; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro; Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido; de Andrade, Marinho Gomes

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a statistical generalized species-area model (GSAM) to represent various patterns of species-area relationship (SAR), which is one of the fundamental patterns in ecology. The approach enables the generalization of many preliminary models, as power-curve model, which is commonly used to mathematically describe the SAR. The GSAM is applied to simulated data set of species diversity in areas of different sizes and a real-world data of insects of Hymenoptera order has been modeled. We show that the GSAM enables the identification of the best statistical model and estimates the number of species according to the area. PMID:25171161

  11. The GSAM software: A global search algorithm of minima exploration for the investigation of low lying isomers of clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Marchal, Rémi; Carbonnière, Philippe; Pouchan, Claude

    2015-01-22

    The study of atomic clusters has become an increasingly active area of research in the recent years because of the fundamental interest in studying a completely new area that can bridge the gap between atomic and solid state physics. Due to their specific properties, such compounds are of great interest in the field of nanotechnology [1,2]. Here, we would present our GSAM algorithm based on a DFT exploration of the PES to find the low lying isomers of such compounds. This algorithm includes the generation of an intial set of structure from which the most relevant are selected. Moreover, an optimization process, called raking optimization, able to discard step by step all the non physically reasonnable configurations have been implemented to reduce the computational cost of this algorithm. Structural properties of Ga{sub n}Asm clusters will be presented as an illustration of the method.

  12. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A; Garrett, Bruce C; Straatsma, TP; Jones, Donald R; Studham, Scott; Harrison, Robert J; Nichols, Jeffrey A

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM and S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  13. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A.; Garrett, Bruce C.; Straatsma, Tp; Jones, Donald R.; Studham, Ronald S.; Harrison, Robert J.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM&S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  14. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  15. A Markov switching model for annual hydrologic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akıntuǧ, B.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2005-09-01

    This paper investigates the properties of Markov switching (MS) models (also known as hidden Markov models) for generating annual time series. This type of model has been used in a number of recent studies in the water resources literature. The model considered here assumes that climate is switching between M states and that the state sequence can be described by a Markov chain. Observations are assumed to be drawn from a normal distribution whose parameters depend on the state variable. We present the stochastic properties of this class of models along with procedures for model identification and parameter estimation. Although, at a first glance, MS models appear to be quite different from ARMA models, we show that it is possible to find an ARMA model that has the same autocorrelation function and the same marginal distribution as any given MS model. Hence, despite the difference in model structure, there are strong similarities between MS and ARMA models. MS and ARMA models are applied to the time series of mean annual discharge of the Niagara River. Although it is difficult to draw any general conclusion from a single case study, it appears that MS models (and ARMA models derived from MS models) generally have stronger autocorrelation at higher lags than ARMA models estimated by conventional maximum likelihood. This may be an important property if the purpose of the study is the analysis of multiyear droughts.

  16. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  17. Infectivity model verification studies, annual report - 1981

    SciTech Connect

    McGrath, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    The infectivity model has been used as one of the leading indicators of the potential health effects that may be associated with energy-related pollutants including nitrogen dioxide (NOs), ozone, and diesel exhaust. The original studies with the infectivity model and chronic exposure to NO2 reported by Ehrlich and Henry (1968) have not been replicated. This report details the work that has been performed in Texas Tech's laboratory thus far in initiating a chronic NO2 exposure study to replicate the original work by Ehrlich and Henry, and reviews the preliminary results. At the end of the first contract year, a functioning inhalation facility with a capability to expose animals continuously to low levels of NO2 is in place. One group of animals has been exposed to NO2 for eight months and challenged with Klebsiella pneumonia by inhalation. The results are similar to, but do not replicate entirely, those reported by Ehrlich and Henry. Two additional exposures have been initiated, and the animals will be challenged with the infectious agent in a bacterial infectivity chamber similar to that used by EPA.

  18. Forecasting of Annual Streamflow Using Data-Driven Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Miller, W. P.; Ahmad, S.; Lamb, K. W.

    2010-12-01

    In a water-stressed region, such as the western United States, it is essential to have long lead-time streamflow forecast for reservoir operation and water resources management. In this study, we develop and examine the accuracy of a data driven model incorporating large-scale climate information for extending streamflow forecast lead-time. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 1-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of “Hondo” region for a period of 1906-2006 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes for multiple sites in Gunnison River Basin (GRB) and San Juan River Basin (SJRB) located in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Contrary to this, the current research shows a stronger signal between the “Hondo” region SST and GRB and SJRB streamflow for 1-year lead-time. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed-forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network model and Multiple Linear Regression model. The streamflow forecast provide valuable and useful information for optimal management and planning of water resources in the basins.

  19. A full annual cycle modeling framework for American black ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor; Devers, Patrick K.; Brook, Rodney W.; Huang, Min; Jones, Malcom; McAuley, Daniel G.; Zimmerman, Guthrie

    2016-01-01

    American black ducks (Anas rubripes) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density-dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.

  20. Modeling annual flooding in the Logone floodplain in Cameroon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, A.; Najafi, M. R.; Durand, M. T.; Mark, B. G.; Moritz, M.; Shastry, A.; Laborde, S.; Phang, S. C.; Hamilton, I.; Ningchuan, X.; Neal, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Logone floodplain (LFP), part of the Lake Chad Basin, is flooded annually by water from the Logone River and its branches during September and October. The inundated LFP is highly productive, providing support for fishing, pastoralism, and agriculture. In the last few decades, droughts, dam construction, manmade fishing canals (MFCs), and irrigation development have caused significant shifts in the LFP's flooding regime. Recently, MFCs have proliferated as consequence of ecological and manmade changes in the LFP. Future impacts of these modifications may parallel projected, although still uncertain, regional hydroclimatic changes derived from global warming. In order to understand feedbacks between human actions and hydroclimate, we are developing an integrated model that links hydroclimate, hydraulics, and human dynamics such as fishermen and pastoralist behavior. Here we present one component of this research focused on simulating the annual flooding dynamics of the LFP using LISFLOOD-FP, a raster-based numerical model that includes sub-grid parameterization of MFCs. Our goal is to evaluate the model's skill to simulate spatiotemporal features of the inundated LFP using a minimum amount of input data, such as discontinuous time series of river discharge and satellite-derived rainfall. Our simulations using three different spatial resolutions (1, 0.5, and 0.25-km grid-cell) suggest that the model is insensitive to pixel size, showing no significant differences between simulated volume, discharge, flooded area, and flood seasonality. Despite the model is able to simulate flow, with a Nash Sutcliff efficiency of 0.81, we find some significant spatial mismatch between observed and simulated inundation areas. In addition, results indicate that overbank flow provides more annual flood volume than rainfall. We discuss the impact of topographic and climatic input data on these results, as well as the potential to simulate the effects of MFCs on the local hydrology.

  1. 76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ... COMMISSION Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling... the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) will convene to discuss the latest developments in environmental modeling applications, tools and frameworks...

  2. Regional Annual Extreme Precipitation Modeling: Choose Your Parents Wisely.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fennessey, N. M.

    2001-05-01

    A great deal of research has been invested in developing a better understanding of the characteristics of and descriptive models of annual extreme precipitation. Some advocate the analysis of the annual maximum series (AMS) others advocate the analysis of partial duration series (PDS). The former is easy to generate, the latter provides more information, which is advantageous for better estimation. Both schools of thought seem to agree that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a good choice for the annual extreme precipitation event. Recently published work suggests that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) is a good choice for generating a PDS because of its analytical link with the GEV. There are, however, two well-recognized disadvantages to using the GPA for this purpose. The analyst must specify both a sampling threshold/lower-bound and a minimum time between peaks to create an acceptable PDS. Using L-moment diagrams and regional frequency analysis, a paper presented at the 1998 Spring AGU meeting suggests that daily precipitation observed in the northeast U.S. is much better described by a two parameter gamma distribution than the three parameter GPA. The 116 NOAA observatories used have periods-of-record which range from 15 to 60 complete years of no missing daily data. The observed AMS in this region is well described by a GEV. In the present work, using the L-moment estimators developed from these daily observations, serially independent gamma distributed, three parameter Pearson Type III (PE3) distributed and three parameter GPA distributed quantiles are generated for a daily period-of-record equal to that of each parent NOAA observatory. No efforts are made to specify a GPA lower bound, but many synthetic days of rainfall have negative values. The maximum value within each 365-day simulation year is retained to create three synthetic AMS, each with a different parent. L-moment diagrams of the observed, gamma day, PE3 day and GPA day

  3. Modeling the annual cycle of HDO in the Martian atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montmessin, F.; Fouchet, T.; Forget, F.

    2005-03-01

    We present the results of the first three-dimensional (3-D) simulation of the water isotope HDO in the Martian atmosphere. This deuterated isotope of water has long been used on both Earth and Mars as a proxy to understand the climatic evolutions of these planets. On Mars, the current enrichment in deuterium concentration in the atmosphere is believed to be indirect evidence of a wetter climate in the past. Due to its vapor pressure being lower than that of H2O, HDO gets fractionated at condensation and therefore concentrates in the Martian water ice clouds. Our study aims at understanding the latitudinal, vertical, and temporal variations of this species under current Martian climate. Our results indicate that the globally averaged D/H ratio in the Martian atmosphere should vary modestly with season, with changes on the order of 2%. Locally, however, this same ratio exhibits large annual changes (by a factor of 2) in the high-latitude regions. These fluctuations are controlled by the Polar Hood water ice clouds, within which HDO gets heavily fractionated. Due to the combined action of summer clouds above the north polar cap and to the cold-trapping effect of the south residual cap, the global atmospheric deuterium concentration is predicted to be more than 15% lower than the concentration in the north permanent cap ice. We thus extrapolate by suggesting that the ``true'' D/H ratio of Martian water may exceed 6.5 (wrt. SMOW), rather than the 5.6 inferred from atmospheric probing. The globally and annually averaged vertical distribution of HDO exhibits a mild decline with altitude, a result in significant contrast with previous 1-D studies. These results will help constrain more accurately the photochemical models aimed at understanding the observed low concentration of deuterium at high altitudes and thus the process of water escape to space.

  4. Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education 2016: Mathematical Modeling and Modeling Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hirsch, Christian R., Ed.; McDuffie, Amy Roth, Ed.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical modeling plays an increasingly important role both in real-life applications--in engineering, business, the social sciences, climate study, advanced design, and more--and within mathematics education itself. This 2016 volume of "Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education" ("APME") focuses on this key topic from a…

  5. An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  6. Incorporating Results of Avian Toxicity Tests into a Model of Annual Reproductive Success

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript presents a modeling approach for translating results from laboratory avian reproduction tests into an estimate of pesticide-caused change in the annual reproductive success of birds, also known as fecundity rate.

  7. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  8. An annual model of SSM/I radiobrightness for dry soil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, Yuei-An; England, A. W.

    1992-01-01

    An annual model is presented of the temperature structure within a homogeneous, dry soil halfspace that is subject to both diurnal and annual insolation, radiant heating from the atmosphere, sensible heat exchange with the atmosphere, and radiant cooling. The thermal constitutive properties of the soil are assumed to be constant so that the heat flow equation can be solved analytically. For computational economy, a variable time interval Laplace transform method is developed to predict the temperature.

  9. Benchmarking global land surface models against the observed mean annual runoff from 150 large basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Xinyao; Zhang, Yongqiang; Wang, Yingping; Zhang, Huqiang; Vaze, Jai; Zhang, Lu; Yang, Yonghui; Zhou, Yanchun

    2012-11-01

    SummaryUsing the observed mean annual runoff for 1986-1995 from 150 large basins globally, we evaluate the performance of the 14 global land surface models (LSMs) and six Budyko-type hydrological models that are forced by the meteorological data from the second phase of the Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP-2). The results show that both the 14 LSMs and six Budyko-type models can explain 55-70% of the spatial variations of mean annual runoff across the selected 150 basins. However, the 14 LSMs show larger biases in the simulated mean annual runoff than the Budyko-type models. The LSMs biases are caused by errors in forcing data, model structure and model parameterisation. The errors in the precipitation forcing data are found to be the main cause for biases in the simulated mean annual runoffs by the Budyko-types models, and most likely for biases in the 14 global land surface models too. The GSWP-2 precipitation is noticeably overestimated at Northern high-latitudes, which causes large positive biases for the LSMs in simulating mean annual runoff in these regions. The most LSMs show large biases in the regions with low mean annual precipitation. Underestimation of the GSWP-2 precipitation in Amazon and Orinoco basins results in significant underestimation in the simulated mean annual runoff by all LSMs and Budyko-type models for these regions. The LSMs with smaller biases generally show larger baseflow ratio in wet basins than in dry basins while the LSMs with larger biases generally show smaller baseflow ratio in wet basins than in dry basins. This indicates that errors in model structure can result in large biases in the simulated runoff. Several parameter sensitivity experiments for one LSM are carried out to investigate impacts on simulated mean runoff. The result indicates that ±20% changes in five key model parameters have relatively smaller impacts on the simulated mean annual runoff across the 150 basins, compared to errors in model structure.

  10. 78 FR 59662 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-27

    ...The annual public meeting of the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) will convene to discuss the latest developments in environmental modeling applications, tools and frameworks as well as new operational initiatives for FY 2014 among the participating agencies. The meeting will be hosted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC), one......

  11. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale P loss model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolster, Carl H.; Vadas, Peter A.; Boykin, Debbie

    2016-08-01

    Phosphorous (P) fate and transport models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. Because all models are simplifications of complex systems, there will exist an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with their predictions. It is therefore important that efforts be directed at identifying, quantifying, and communicating the different sources of model uncertainties. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our analysis included calculating parameter uncertainties and confidence and prediction intervals for five internal regression equations in APLE. We also estimated uncertainties of the model input variables based on values reported in the literature. We then predicted P loss for a suite of fields under different management and climatic conditions while accounting for uncertainties in the model parameters and inputs and compared the relative contributions of these two sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty associated with predictions of P loss. Both the overall magnitude of the prediction uncertainties and the relative contributions of the two sources of uncertainty varied depending on management practices and field characteristics. This was due to differences in the number of model input variables and the uncertainties in the regression equations associated with each P loss pathway. Inspection of the uncertainties in the five regression equations brought attention to a previously unrecognized limitation with the equation used to partition surface-applied fertilizer P between leaching and runoff losses. As a result, an alternate equation was identified that provided similar predictions with much less uncertainty. Our results demonstrate how a thorough uncertainty and model residual analysis can be used to identify limitations with a model. Such insight can then be used to guide future data collection and model

  12. Evaluation of annual, global seismicity forecasts, including ensemble models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taroni, Matteo; Zechar, Jeremy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2013-04-01

    In 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of the Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) initiated a prototype global earthquake forecast experiment. Three models participated in this experiment for 2009, 2010 and 2011—each model forecast the number of earthquakes above magnitude 6 in 1x1 degree cells that span the globe. Here we use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed seismicity. We compare model performance with statistical tests and a new method based on the peer-to-peer gambling score. The results of the comparisons are used to build ensemble models that are a weighted combination of the individual models. Notably, in these experiments the ensemble model always performs significantly better than the single best-performing model. Our results indicate the following: i) time-varying forecasts, if not updated after each major shock, may not provide significant advantages with respect to time-invariant models in 1-year forecast experiments; ii) the spatial distribution seems to be the most important feature to characterize the different forecasting performances of the models; iii) the interpretation of consistency tests may be misleading because some good models may be rejected while trivial models may pass consistency tests; iv) a proper ensemble modeling seems to be a valuable procedure to get the best performing model for practical purposes.

  13. CO2 annual and semiannual cycles from multiple satellite retrievals and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xun; Crisp, David; Olsen, Edward T.; Kulawik, Susan S.; Miller, Charles E.; Pagano, Thomas S.; Liang, Maochang; Yung, Yuk L.

    2016-02-01

    Satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and in situ measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) are utilized to explore the CO2 variability at different altitudes. A multiple regression method is used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes for GOSAT XCO2 and TCCON XCO2 are consistent but smaller than those seen in the NOAA-ESRL surface data. The CO2 annual and semiannual cycles are smallest in the AIRS midtropospheric CO2 compared with other data sets in the Northern Hemisphere. The amplitudes for the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle from GOSAT, TES, and AIRS CO2 are small and comparable to each other in the Southern Hemisphere. Similar regression analysis is applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the models tend to underestimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and underestimate the CO2 semiannual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes. These results can be used to better understand the vertical structures for the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle and help identify deficiencies in the models, which are very important for the carbon budget study.

  14. Application of nonstationary generalized logistic models for analyzing the annual maximum rainfall data in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Joo, K.; Kim, H.; Heo, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the various approaches for the nonstationary frequency analysis have been studied since the effect of climate change was widely recognized for hydrologic data. Most nonstationary studies proposed the nonstationary general extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto models for the annual maximum and POT (peak-over-threshold) data, respectively. However, various alternatives is needed to analyze the nonstationary hydrologic data because of the complicated influence of climate change. This study proposed the nonstationary generalized logistic models containing time-dependent location and scale parameters. These models contain only or both nonstationary location and scale parameters that change linearly over time. The parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood based on the Newton-Raphson method. In addition, the proposed models apply to the annual maximum rainfall data of Korea in order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed models.

  15. A hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff of the Kaidu River in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Xu, Yiwen

    2016-04-01

    Fluctuant and complicated hydrological processes can result in the uncertainty of runoff forecasting. Thus, it is necessary to apply the multi-method integrated modeling approaches to simulate runoff. Integrating the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) and the nonlinear regression equation, we put forward a hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff (AR) of the Kaidu River in northwest China. We also validate the simulated effects by using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) based on the observed data from 1960 to 2012 at the Dashankou hydrological station. The average absolute and relative errors show the high simulation accuracy of the hybrid model. R2 and AIC both illustrate that the hybrid model has a much better performance than the single BPANN. The hybrid model and integrated approach elicited by this study can be applied to simulate the annual runoff of similar rivers in northwest China.

  16. AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF THE 2005 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ

    EPA Science Inventory

    An annual operation performance evaluation of the 2005 release of Models-3 CMAQ v4.5 has been performed. The poster presented results from the winter and summer season for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, organic carbon, PM2.5 mass and AQS 8-hr maximum ozone. Stati...

  17. Theoretical model for the latitude dependence of the thermospheric annual and semiannual variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Volland, H.

    1972-01-01

    A three-dimensional model for the annual and semiannual variations of the thermosphere is presented in which energy and diffusive mass transport associated with the global circulation are considered in a self-consistent form. It is shown that these processes play a major role in the thermosphere dynamics and account for a number of temperature and compositional phenomena.

  18. Analysis for Regression Model Behavior by Sampling Strategy for Annual Pollutant Load Estimation.

    PubMed

    Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A

    2015-11-01

    Water quality data are typically collected less frequently than streamflow data due to the cost of collection and analysis, and therefore water quality data may need to be estimated for additional days. Regression models are applicable to interpolate water quality data associated with streamflow data and have come to be extensively used, requiring relatively small amounts of data. There is a need to evaluate how well the regression models represent pollutant loads from intermittent water quality data sets. Both the specific regression model and water quality data frequency are important factors in pollutant load estimation. In this study, nine regression models from the Load Estimator (LOADEST) and one regression model from the Web-based Load Interpolation Tool (LOADIN) were evaluated with subsampled water quality data sets from daily measured water quality data sets for N, P, and sediment. Each water quality parameter had different correlations with streamflow, and the subsampled water quality data sets had various proportions of storm samples. The behaviors of the regression models differed not only by water quality parameter but also by proportion of storm samples. The regression models from LOADEST provided accurate and precise annual sediment and P load estimates using the water quality data of 20 to 40% storm samples. LOADIN provided more accurate and precise annual N load estimates than LOADEST. In addition, the results indicate that avoidance of water quality data extrapolation and availability of water quality data from storm events were crucial in annual pollutant load estimation using pollutant regression models. PMID:26641336

  19. Pataha [Creek] Model Watershed : 1997 Habitat Projects : Annual Progress Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bartels, Duane

    1998-10-28

    The projects outlined in detail on the attached project reports are a few of the many projects implemented in the Pataha Creek Model Watershed since it was selected as a model in 1993. Up until this year, demonstration sites using riparian fencing, off site watering facilities, tree and shrub plantings and upland conservation practices were used for information and education and was the main focus of the implementation phase of the watershed plan. These practices are the main focus of the watershed plan to reduce the majority of the sediment entering the stream.

  20. A GIS tool for modelling annual diffuse infiltration on a plot scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    España, Salvador; Alcalá, Francisco J.; Vallejos, Ángela; Pulido-Bosch, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    ArcB is a GIS tool for modelling annual diffuse infiltration (RP) from precipitation (P) on a plot scale that uses ArcObjects as the programming language to incorporate equations and boundary conditions for the water-balance consistency. Because detailed weather, soil, and vegetation data are often missing, ArcB uses well-known non-global models such as Hargreaves for daily potential evapotranspiration and Budyko for annual actual evapotranspiration (EA), as well as the SCS Curve Number procedure for 24-h plot runoff (RO). Annual RP is quantified as the difference in annual P, EA, and RO. Because the use of non-global models for EA may induce suboptimal RP results, ArcB allows corrections of EA estimates by comparisons with data from a reference station. In a semiarid heterogeneous region in south-eastern Spain, the uncertainty of RO and RP was lowered to 4% and 2%, respectively, when correcting EA. ArcObjects is a versatile programming language which allows advanced users to incorporate more complex formulations for more accurate results as detailed data is acquired and to develop routines for calibration when reference data exist.

  1. SP-100 operational life model. Fiscal Year 1990 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Ewell, R.; Awaya, H.

    1990-12-14

    This report covers the initial year`s effort in the development of an Operational Life Model (OLM) for the SP-100 Space Reactor Power System. The initial step undertaken in developing the OLM was to review all available documentation from GE on their plans for the OLM and on the degradation and failure mechanisms envisioned for the SP-100. In addition, the DEGRA code developed at JPL, which modelled the degradation of the General Purpose Heat Source based Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG), was reviewed. Based on the review of the degradation and failure mechanisms, a list of the most pertinent degradation effects along with their key degradation mechanisms was compiled. This was done as a way of separating the mechanisms from the effects and allowing all of the effects to be incorporated into the OLM. The emphasis was on parameters which will tend to change performance as a function of time and not on those that are simply failures without any prior degradation.

  2. A model to predict annual bed load transport in ungauged watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segura, C.; Pitlick, J.

    2014-12-01

    The prediction of bed load transport is relevant to many aspects of river management such as river engineering, channel stability, and stream ecology. However, given that the functions used to predict bed load transport are very sensitive to input values, the uncertainty associated with estimates of transport at a specific place or point in time can be quite large. In addition, if the goal is to predict annual loads, a distribution characterizing the frequency of sediment-transporting flows must also be known. In this work we develop a model to predict annual bed load transport in ungauged catchments by computing the sediment movement associated with discharge levels between ½ of bankfull and bankfull flow. The model incorporates both the prediction of daily flows based on a power function, and a field-based parameterization of the spatial-temporal distribution of boundary shear stress based on two-dimensional flow modelling. The data inputs for the model are channel geometry (depth, width, and slope), grain size distribution, and drainage area. We will present the results sites in Colorado and Idaho. The model can be used to explore how changes in the frequency of extreme events impacts the total annual bed load and the spatial-temporal disturbance regime of aquatic ecosystems.

  3. Hydroclimatology of dual-peak annual cholera incidence: Insights from a spatially explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-03-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g., sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of a model river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of river flows. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely river flow, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. Our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

  4. The Annual Cycle of Arctic Ice and Ocean Heat and Freshwater Fluxes, Measured and Modelled

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacon, S.; Aksenov, Y.; Tsubouchi, T.

    2014-12-01

    Paucity of measurements means that quantifying and evaluating the Arctic thermal and hydrological cycles is problematic. For example: atmospheric reanalyses are not well constrained by observations; for river runoff measurements, there are un-gauged flows to consider; and until the relatively recent advent of autonomous measurement systems, ocean measurements outside the summer melt season were rare. We have assembled a complete and continuous Arctic Ocean boundary measurement array from moored installations in four ocean gateways: Fram, Davis and Bering Straits, and the Barents Sea Opening. Occasionally "patching" with coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) output is required; if so, the output water properties are validated and calibrated against climatology. This approach enables application of inverse modeling methods through the use of conservation constraints, and consequent generation of a set of 12 monthly-mean ocean (including sea ice) fluxes of freshwater and heat spanning a full calendar year. We will present results from a single annual cycle (2005-6). We have also transferred the design of the Arctic Ocean Boundary Array to the GCM environment, where we have calculated the mean annual cycles (from ca. 30-year model runs) both of net surface fluxes (atmosphere-ocean and land-ocean, including sea ice) and equivalent ice and ocean boundary fluxes of freshwater and heat, at two model resolutions (1/4 degree and 1/12 degree global mean) and for two different surface forcing data sets. We will show the resulting comparisons of the mean annual cycles of measured and modeled Arctic freshwater and heat fluxes, and also show the modeled mean annual cycle of heat and freshwater storage. We believe that the integral boundary array formed by sustained measurements in the four named ocean gateways should be a cornerstone of any Arctic environmental monitoring system.

  5. Annual cost of antiretroviral therapy among three service delivery models in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Vu, Lung; Waliggo, Samuel; Zieman, Brady; Jani, Nrupa; Buzaalirwa, Lydia; Okoboi, Stephen; Okal, Jerry; Borse, Nagesh N; Kalibala, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    Introduction In response to the increasing burden of HIV, the Ugandan government has employed different service delivery models since 2004 that aim to reduce costs and remove barriers to accessing HIV care. These models include community-based approaches to delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) and delegating tasks to lower-level health workers. This study aimed to provide data on annual ART cost per client among three different service delivery models in Uganda. Methods Costing data for the entire year 2012 were retrospectively collected as part of a larger task-shifting study conducted in three organizations in Uganda: Kitovu Mobile (KM), the AIDS Support Organisation (TASO) and Uganda Cares (UC). A standard cost data capture tool was developed and used to retrospectively collect cost information regarding antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and non-ARV drugs, ART-related lab tests, personnel and administrative costs. A random sample of four TASO centres (out of 11), four UC clinics (out of 29) and all KM outreach units were selected for the study. Results Cost varied across sites within each organization as well as across the three organizations. In addition, the number of annual ART visits was more frequent in rural areas and through KM (the community distribution model), which played a major part in the overall annual ART cost. The annual cost per client (in USD) was $404 for KM, $332 for TASO and $257 for UC. These estimates were lower than previous analyses in Uganda or the region compared to data from 2001 to 2009, but comparable with recent estimates using data from 2010 to 2013. ARVs accounted for the majority of the total cost, followed by personnel and operational costs. Conclusions The study provides updated data on annual cost per ART visit for three service delivery models in Uganda. These data will be vital for in-country budgetary efforts to ensure that universal access to ART, as called for in the 2015 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, is

  6. Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our

  7. Hydrological annual hysteresis: functional signature for assessing the consistency of catchment conceptual models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, Ophelie; Laurent, Ruiz; Markus, Hrachowitz; Chantal, Gascuel-Odoux

    2015-04-01

    While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. In particular, the relationship between storage and discharge, which often follows annual hysteretic patterns in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely considered in modelling studies. One main reason is that catchment storage is difficult to measure and another one is that objective functions are usually based on individual variables time series (e.g. the discharge). This reduces the ability of classical procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypotheses associated with models. In this study, the annual hysteric patterns observed between stream flow and water storage is analysed both in the saturated and unsaturated zones of the hillslope and the riparian zone of a headwater catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys). The saturated zone storage was estimated using distributed shallow groundwater levels and the unsaturated zone storage using several moisture profiles. All hysteretic loops were characterized by a hysteresis index. Four conceptual models, previously calibrated and evaluated for the same catchment, were assessed with respect to their ability to reproduce the hysteretic patterns. The observed relationship between stream flow, saturated, and unsaturated storages led to identify four hydrological periods and emphasized a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters. Although all the tested models were able to produce an annual hysteresis loop between discharge and both saturated and unsaturated storage, integration of a riparian component led to overall improved hysteretic signatures, even if some misrepresentation remained. Such systems-like approach is likely to improve model selection.

  8. Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

    2013-08-01

    Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

  9. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran.

    PubMed

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-01-01

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R(2) values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited. PMID:27622593

  10. Using "snapshot" measurements of CH4 fluxes from peatlands to estimate annual budgets: interpolation vs. modelling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Sophie M.; Baird, Andy J.

    2016-04-01

    There is growing interest in estimating annual budgets of peatland-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchanges. Such budgeting is required for calculating peatland carbon balance and the radiative forcing impact of peatlands on climate. There have been multiple approaches used to estimate CO2 budgets; however, there is a limited literature regarding the modelling of annual CH4 budgets. Using data collected from flux chamber tests in an area of blanket peatland in North Wales, we compared annual estimates of peatland-atmosphere CH4 emissions using an interpolation approach and an additive and multiplicative modelling approach. Flux-chamber measurements represent a snapshot of the conditions on a particular site. In contrast to CO2, most studies that have estimated the time-integrated flux of CH4 have not used models. Typically, linear interpolation is used to estimate CH4 fluxes during the time periods between flux-chamber measurements. It is unclear how much error is involved with such a simple integration method. CH4 fluxes generally show a rise followed by a fall through the growing season that may be captured reasonably well by interpolation, provided there are sufficiently frequent measurements. However, day-to-day and week-to-week variability is also often evident in CH4 flux data, and will not necessarily be properly represented by interpolation. Our fits of the CH4 flux models yielded r2 > 0.5 in 38 of the 48 models constructed, with 55% of these having a weighted rw2 > 0.4. Comparison of annualised CH4 fluxes estimated by interpolation and modelling reveals no correlation between the two data sets; indeed, in some cases even the sign of the flux differs. The difference between the methods seems also to be related to the size of the flux - for modest annual fluxes there is a fairly even scatter of points around the 1:1 line, whereas when the modelled fluxes are high, the corresponding interpolated fluxes tend to be low. We consider the

  11. Using the Annual Cycle to Understand Climate Model Biases in Trade-wind Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medeiros, B.; Nuijens, L.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the clouds of the north Atlantic trade-wind region as represented in climate models. We focus on an area near Barbados, a site with long-term cloud observations. We begin by asking whether the annual cycle of cloud cover is properly represented in models compared to satellite observations and reanalysis. The models robustly overestimate the amplitude of the annual cycle in cloud cover compared to satellite estimates, but qualitatively capture the phase of the annual cycle with the cloudiest months in the summer wet season in association with deeper convection and higher clouds. We show that the wet season biases are associated with biases in the large-scale circulation, in particular the location of the ITCZ. During the dry season, however, cloud cover is underestimated. Comparison of simulated cloud fraction with the expected cloud-controlling factors shows only weak relationships and little correspondence between the models and observation-based estimates. We infer that the cloud cover variations within the dry season are controlled at least as much by local factors as large-scale ones; these local factors are determined by parameterized physics in the climate models. Like the cloud cover, the vertical structure of the the simulated clouds varies tremendously across models. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is relatively well-captured by the models during the dry season, signaling a common compensating bias among the models and reaffirming the ''too few, too bright'' error. Conditioning on dry season and SWCRE shows that models diverge as to the cause of SWCRE variation, some having more influence from shallow cumulus cloud variation while others show more dependence on middle and upper-level clouds. These higher clouds are usually considered unimportant for the overall cloudiness and the shortwave radiation budget in the trades, but this does not appear to be the case at least for some models. Since

  12. Empirical models of monthly and annual surface albedo in managed boreal forests of Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Astrup, Rasmus; Strømman, Anders H.

    2013-04-01

    As forest management activities play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation strategies of Nordic regions such as Norway, Sweden, and Finland -- the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the types and magnitude of biogeophysical climate effects and their various tradeoffs with the global carbon cycle becomes essential to avoid implementation of sub-optimal policy. Forest harvest in these regions reduces the albedo "masking effect" and impacts Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways to that of concomitant carbon cycle perturbations; thus, policies based solely on biogeochemical considerations in these regions risk being counterproductive. There is therefore a need to better understand how human disturbances (i.e., forest management activities) affect important biophysical factors like surface albedo. An 11-year remotely sensed surface albedo dataset coupled with stand-level forest management data for a variety of stands in Norway's most productive logging region are used to develop regression models describing temporal changes in monthly and annual forest albedo following clear-cut harvest disturbance events. Datasets are grouped by dominant tree species and site indices (productivity), and two alternate multiple regression models are developed and tested following a potential plus modifier approach. This resulted in an annual albedo model with statistically significant parameters that explains a large proportion of the observed variation, requiring as few as two predictor variables: i) average stand age - a canopy modifier predictor of albedo, and ii) stand elevation - a local climate predictor of a forest's potential albedo. The same model structure is used to derive monthly albedo models, with models for winter months generally found superior to summer models, and conifer models generally outperforming deciduous. We demonstrate how these statistical models can be applied to routine forest inventory data to predict the albedo

  13. A general model of intra-annual tree growth using dendrometer bands.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Sean M; Parker, Geoffrey G

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth is an important indicator of forest health, productivity, and demography. Knowing precisely how trees' grow within a year, instead of across years, can lead to a finer understanding of the mechanisms that drive these larger patterns. The growing use of dendrometer bands in research forests has only rarely been used to measure growth at resolutions finer than yearly, but intra-annual growth patterns can be observed from dendrometer bands using precision digital calipers and weekly measurements. Here we present a workflow to help forest ecologists fit growth models to intra-annual measurements using standard optimization functions provided by the R platform. We explain our protocol, test uncertainty in parameter estimates with respect to sample sizes, extend the optimization protocol to estimate robust lower and upper annual diameter bounds, and discuss potential challenges to optimal fits. We offer R code to implement this workflow. We found that starting values and initial optimization routines are critical to fitting the best functional forms. After using a bounded, broad search method, a more focused search algorithm obtained consistent results. To estimate starting and ending annual diameters, we combined the growth function with early and late estimates of beginning and ending growth. Once we fit the functions, we present extension algorithms that estimate periodic reductions in growth, total growth, and present a method of controlling for the shifting allocation to girth during the growth season. We demonstrate that with these extensions, an analysis of growth response to weather (e.g., the water available to a tree) can be derived in a way that is comparable across trees, years, and sites. Thus, this approach, when applied across broader data sets, offers a pathway to build inference about the effects of seasonal weather on growth, size- and light-dependent patterns of growth, species-specific patterns, and phenology. PMID:25691954

  14. A general model of intra-annual tree growth using dendrometer bands

    PubMed Central

    McMahon, Sean M; Parker, Geoffrey G

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth is an important indicator of forest health, productivity, and demography. Knowing precisely how trees' grow within a year, instead of across years, can lead to a finer understanding of the mechanisms that drive these larger patterns. The growing use of dendrometer bands in research forests has only rarely been used to measure growth at resolutions finer than yearly, but intra-annual growth patterns can be observed from dendrometer bands using precision digital calipers and weekly measurements. Here we present a workflow to help forest ecologists fit growth models to intra-annual measurements using standard optimization functions provided by the R platform. We explain our protocol, test uncertainty in parameter estimates with respect to sample sizes, extend the optimization protocol to estimate robust lower and upper annual diameter bounds, and discuss potential challenges to optimal fits. We offer R code to implement this workflow. We found that starting values and initial optimization routines are critical to fitting the best functional forms. After using a bounded, broad search method, a more focused search algorithm obtained consistent results. To estimate starting and ending annual diameters, we combined the growth function with early and late estimates of beginning and ending growth. Once we fit the functions, we present extension algorithms that estimate periodic reductions in growth, total growth, and present a method of controlling for the shifting allocation to girth during the growth season. We demonstrate that with these extensions, an analysis of growth response to weather (e.g., the water available to a tree) can be derived in a way that is comparable across trees, years, and sites. Thus, this approach, when applied across broader data sets, offers a pathway to build inference about the effects of seasonal weather on growth, size- and light-dependent patterns of growth, species-specific patterns, and phenology. PMID:25691954

  15. Latent risk and trend models for the evolution of annual fatality numbers in 30 European countries.

    PubMed

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Commandeur, Jacques J F; Lassarre, Sylvain; Bijleveld, Frits; Martensen, Heike; Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Hermans, Elke; Pérez, Katherine; Santamariña-Rubio, Elena; Usami, Davide Shingo; Giustiniani, Gabriele

    2014-10-01

    In this paper a unified methodology is presented for the modelling of the evolution of road safety in 30 European countries. For each country, annual data of the best available exposure indicator and of the number of fatalities were simultaneously analysed with the bivariate latent risk time series model. This model is based on the assumption that the amount of exposure and the number of fatalities are intrinsically related. It captures the dynamic evolution in the fatalities as the product of the dynamic evolution in two latent trends: the trend in the fatality risk and the trend in the exposure to that risk. Before applying the latent risk model to the different countries it was first investigated and tested whether the exposure indicator at hand and the fatalities in each country were in fact related at all. If they were, the latent risk model was applied to that country; if not, a univariate local linear trend model was applied to the fatalities series only, unless the latent risk time series model was found to yield better forecasts than the univariate local linear trend model. In either case, the temporal structure of the unobserved components of the optimal model was established, and structural breaks in the trends related to external events were identified and captured by adding intervention variables to the appropriate components of the model. As a final step, for each country the optimally modelled developments were projected into the future, thus yielding forecasts for the number of fatalities up to and including 2020. PMID:25000194

  16. TRAC-MIP: Tropical Rain bands with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Scheff, Jack; Zeppetello, Lucas Randall

    2016-04-01

    Understanding and modeling tropical rainfall has proven to be one of the most stubborn challenges in climate science. Tropical rainfall biases such as a double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the East Pacific have now persisted more than two decades despite the general improvements of climate models, and projections for the ITCZ and the monsoon systems remain uncertain in magnitude and sign. Progress in these areas can be fostered by a set of idealized experiments that target the dynamics of tropical rain band, as long as these simple experiments are properly integrated within a full hierarchy of model simulations. To this aim, we have designed the "Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project." TRAC-MIP involves five experiments using idealized aquaplanet and land setups to explore the dynamics of tropical rainfall. By using interactive sea-surface temperatures and seasonally-varying insolation TRAC-MIP fills the gap between idealized aquaplanet simulations with prescribed SSTs and the fully-coupled realistic model simulations of CMIP5. TRAC-MIP includes the participation of 13 state-of-the art comprehensive climate models, and it also includes a simplified model that neglects cloud and water-vapor radiative feedbacks, thus allowing a more direct connection between the results from the TRAC-MIP comprehensive models and the theoretical studies of tropical rain belt dynamics. We will present preliminary results from the ensemble, aiming to examine the mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation in the context of forced variability. First and foremost, we are interested in the largest forced variation: the annual cycle. Second, we are interested in the response to key forcings of the future (greenhouse gases) and of the Holocene (insolation). We will draw out the similarities and the distinctions between oceanic and continental rain bands, study the ways in which the two interact with each other, and investigate

  17. ENSO and annual cycle interaction: the combination mode representation in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Hong-Li; Zuo, Jinqing; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

    2015-08-01

    Recent research demonstrated the existence of a combination mode (C-mode) originating from the atmospheric nonlinear interaction between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle. In this paper, we show that the majority of coupled climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of the C-mode in terms of surface wind anomalies reasonably well, and about half of the coupled models are able to reproduce spectral power at the combination tone periodicities of about 10 and/or 15 months. Compared to the CMIP5 historical simulations, the CMIP5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations can generally exhibit a more realistic simulation of the C-mode due to prescribed lower boundary forcing. Overall, the multi-model ensemble average of the CMIP5 models tends to capture the C-mode better than the individual models. Furthermore, the models with better performance in simulating the ENSO mode tend to also exhibit a more realistic C-mode with respect to its spatial pattern and amplitude, in both the CMIP5 historical and AMIP simulations. This study shows that the CMIP5 models are able to simulate the proposed combination mode mechanism to some degree, resulting from their reasonable performance in representing the ENSO mode. It is suggested that the main ENSO periods in the current climate models needs to be further improved for making the C-mode better.

  18. ENSO and annual cycle interaction: the combination mode representation in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Hong-Li; Zuo, Jinqing; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

    2016-06-01

    Recent research demonstrated the existence of a combination mode (C-mode) originating from the atmospheric nonlinear interaction between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle. In this paper, we show that the majority of coupled climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of the C-mode in terms of surface wind anomalies reasonably well, and about half of the coupled models are able to reproduce spectral power at the combination tone periodicities of about 10 and/or 15 months. Compared to the CMIP5 historical simulations, the CMIP5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations can generally exhibit a more realistic simulation of the C-mode due to prescribed lower boundary forcing. Overall, the multi-model ensemble average of the CMIP5 models tends to capture the C-mode better than the individual models. Furthermore, the models with better performance in simulating the ENSO mode tend to also exhibit a more realistic C-mode with respect to its spatial pattern and amplitude, in both the CMIP5 historical and AMIP simulations. This study shows that the CMIP5 models are able to simulate the proposed combination mode mechanism to some degree, resulting from their reasonable performance in representing the ENSO mode. It is suggested that the main ENSO periods in the current climate models needs to be further improved for making the C-mode better.

  19. Upper ocean model of dissolved atmospheric gases. Annual report, 1 August 1991--31 July 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schudlich, R.; Emerson, S.

    1992-12-31

    The goal of this project is to estimate the rate of biological oxygen production at Hawaiian Ocean Time-series station ALOHA in the central North Pacific ocean. Our approach is to use an upper ocean model together with measurements to interpret an annual cycle of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, argon, nitrogen, and the stable isotope ratio of oxygen at station ALOHA. This project represents the first upper ocean geochemical study in which model predictions are verifiable by independent measurements. Using the model, we will be able to assess the relative roles played by physical processes (air-sea gas exchange, air injection by bubbles, temperature-induced changes in gas solubility, trapping below the mixed layer, and diffusion) and biological processes (photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient recycling) in producing the observed distribution of dissolved atmospheric gases. The long term goal of this project is to understand the utility of chemical tracers for quantifying biological processes in the ocean.

  20. Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

    2001-01-01

    Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern

  1. Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

    PubMed

    Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

    2013-05-01

    In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model. PMID:23613585

  2. Optimal Strategy for the Integrated Vendor-buyer Inventory Model with Fuzzy Annual Demand and Fuzzy Adjustable Production Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, M. F.

    In this research we present a stylized model to find the optimal strategy for integrated vendor-buyer inventory model with fuzzy annual demand and fuzzy adjustable production rate. This model with such consideration is based on the total cost optimization under a common stock strategy. However, the supposition of known annual demand and adjustable production rate in most related publications may not be realistic. This paper proposes the triangular fuzzy number of annual demand and adjustable production rate and then employs the signed distance, to find the estimation of the common total cost in the fuzzy sense and derives the corresponding optimal buyer`s quantity consequently and the integer number of lots in which the items are delivered from the vendor to the purchaser. A numerical example is provided and the results of fuzzy and crisp models are compared.

  3. Three-parameter-based streamflow elasticity model: application to MOPEX basins in the USA at annual and seasonal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2016-07-01

    We present a three-parameter streamflow elasticity model as a function of precipitation, potential evaporation, and change in groundwater storage applicable at both seasonal and annual scales. The model was applied to 245 Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) basins spread across the continental USA. The analysis of the modified equation at annual and seasonal scales indicated that the groundwater and surface water storage change contributes significantly to the streamflow elasticity. Overall, in case of annual as well as seasonal water balances, precipitation has higher elasticity values when compared to both potential evapotranspiration and storage changes. The streamflow elasticities show significant nonlinear associations with the climate conditions of the catchments indicating a complex interplay between elasticities and climate variables with substantial seasonal variations.

  4. The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

    2012-01-01

    Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

  5. Changes in Sahelian annual vegetation growth and phenology since 1960: A modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierre, C.; Grippa, M.; Mougin, E.; Guichard, F.; Kergoat, L.

    2016-08-01

    In semi-arid areas like the Sahel, vegetation is particularly sensitive to climate variability and can play an important role in surface-atmosphere coupling. After a wet period extending from 1950 to 1970, the Sahel experienced a severe drought in the 1970s and 1980s, followed by a partial recovery of rainfall and a "re-greening" of vegetation beginning in the 1990s. This study explores how the multidecadal variability of Sahelian rainfall and particularly the drought period have affected vegetation phenology and growth since 1960. The STEP model, which is specifically designed to simulate the Sahelian annual vegetation, including the dry season processes, is run over an area extending from 13°N to 18°N and from 20°W to 20°E. Mean values, interannual variability and phenological characteristics of the Sahelian annual grasslands simulated by STEP are in good agreement with MODIS derived production and phenology over the 2001-2014 period, which demonstrates the skill of the model and allows the analysis of vegetation changes and variability over the last 50 years. It was found that droughts in the 1970s and 1980s shortened the mean vegetation cycle and reduced its amplitude and that, despite the rainfall recovery since the 1990s, the current conditions for green and dry vegetation are still below pre-drought conditions. While the decrease in vegetation production has been largely homogeneous during droughts, vegetation recovery has been heterogeneous over the Sahel since 1990, with specific changes near the western coast and at the eastern edge of the West African monsoon area. Since 1970, the Sahel also experienced an increased interannual variability in vegetation mass and phenology. In terms of phenology, region-averaged End and Length of Season are the most variable, while maximum date and Start of Season are the least variable, although the latter displays a high variability locally.

  6. Regional Climate Model Simulation of U.S. Precipitation during 1982 2002. Part I: Annual Cycle.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Xin-Zhong; Li, Li; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Ting, Mingfang; Wang, Julian X. L.

    2004-09-01

    The fifth-generation PSU NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)-based regional climate model (CMM5) capability in simulating the U.S. precipitation annual cycle is evaluated with a 1982 2002 continuous baseline integration driven by the NCEP DOE second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II) reanalysis. The causes for major model biases (differences from observations) are studied through supplementary seasonal sensitivity experiments with various driving lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and physics representations. It is demonstrated that the CMM5 has a pronounced rainfall downscaling skill, producing more realistic regional details and overall smaller biases than the driving global reanalysis. The precipitation simulation is most skillful in the Northwest, where orographic forcing dominates throughout the year; in the Midwest, where mesoscale convective complexes prevail in summer; and in the central Great Plains, where nocturnal low-level jet and rainfall peaks occur in summer. The actual model skill, however, is masked by existing large LBC uncertainties over data-poor areas, especially over oceans. For example, winter dry biases in the Gulf States likely result from LBC errors in the south and east buffer zones. On the other hand, several important regional biases are identified with model physics deficiencies. In particular, summer dry biases in the North American monsoon region and along the east coast of the United States can be largely rectified by replacing the Grell with the Kain Fritsch cumulus scheme. The latter scheme, however, yields excessive rainfall in the Atlantic Ocean but large deficits over the Midwest. The fall dry biases over the lower Mississippi River basin, common to all existing global and regional models, remain unexplained and the search for their responsible physical mechanisms will be challenging. In addition, the representation of cloud radiation interaction is essential in determining the precipitation distribution and regional

  7. Forecasting geomagnetic activity at monthly and annual horizons: Time series models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2015-10-01

    Most of the existing work on forecasting geomagnetic activity has been over short intervals, on the order of hours or days. However, it is also of interest to predict over longer horizons, ranging from months to years. Forecasting tests are run for the Aa index, which begins in 1868 and provides the longest continuous records of geomagnetic activity. This series is challenging to forecast. While it exhibits cycles at 11-22 years, the amplitude and period of the cycles varies over time. There is also evidence of discontinuous trending: the slope and direction of the trend change repeatedly. Further, at the monthly resolution, the data exhibits nonlinear variability, with intermittent large outliers. Several types of models are tested: regressions, neural networks, a frequency domain algorithm, and combined models. Forecasting tests are run at horizons of 1-11 years using the annual data, and 1-12 months using the monthly data. At the 1-year horizon, the mean errors are in the range of 13-17 percent while the median errors are in the range of 10-14 percent. The accuracy of the models deteriorates at longer horizons. At 5 years, the mean errors lie in the range of 21-23 percent, and at 11 years, 23-25 percent. At the 1 year horizon, the most accurate forecast is achieved by a combined model, but over longer horizons (2-11 years), the neural net dominates. At the monthly resolution, the mean errors are in the range of 17-19 percent at 1 month, while the median errors lie in a range of 14-17 percent. The mean error increases to 23-24 percent at 5 months, and 25 percent at 12 months. A model combining frequency and time domain methods is marginally better than regressions and neural networks alone, up to 11 months. The main conclusion is that geomagnetic activity can only be predicted to within a limited threshold of accuracy, over a given range of horizons. This is consistent with the finding of irregular trends and cycles in the annual data and nonlinear variability in

  8. Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-04-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

  9. Turnaround Management Strategies: The Adaptive Model and the Constructive Model. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chaffee, Ellen E.

    The use of two management strategies by 14 liberal arts and comprehensive colleges attempting to recover from serious financial decline during 1973-1976 were studied. The adaptive model of strategy, based on resource dependence, involves managing demands in order to satisfy critical-resource providers. The constructive model of strategy, based on…

  10. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale phosphorus loss model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  11. The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mote, Philip W.

    1995-01-01

    The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

  12. Comprehensive Model of Annual Plankton Succession Based on the Whole-Plankton Time Series Approach

    PubMed Central

    Romagnan, Jean-Baptiste; Legendre, Louis; Guidi, Lionel; Jamet, Jean-Louis; Jamet, Dominique; Mousseau, Laure; Pedrotti, Maria-Luiza; Picheral, Marc; Gorsky, Gabriel; Sardet, Christian; Stemmann, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally. PMID:25780912

  13. Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

    2006-01-01

    In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

  14. ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2013-04-01

    A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast

  15. Modeling of clouds and radiation for developing parameterizations for general circulation models. Annual report, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Toon, O.B.; Westphal, D.L.

    1996-07-01

    We have used a hierarchy of numerical models for cirrus and stratus clouds and for radiative transfer to improve the reliability of general circulation models. Our detailed cloud microphysical model includes all of the physical processes believed to control the lifecycles of liquid and ice clouds in the troposphere. We have worked on specific GCM parameterizations for the radiative properties of cirrus clouds, making use of a mesocale model as the test-bed for the parameterizations. We have also modeled cirrus cloud properties with a detailed cloud physics model to better understand how the radiatively important properties of cirrus are controlled by their environment. We have used another cloud microphysics model to investigate of the interactions between aerosols and clouds. This work is some of the first to follow the details of interactions between aerosols and cloud droplets and has shown some unexpected relations between clouds and aerosols. We have also used line-by- line radiative transfer results verified with ARM data, to derive a GCMS.

  16. Modeling of clouds and radiation for developing parameterizations for general circulation models. Annual report, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-31

    We are using a hierarchy of numerical models of cirrus and stratus clouds and radiative transfer to improve the reliability of general circulation models. Our detailed cloud microphysical model includes all of the physical processes believed to control the lifecycle of liquid and ice clouds in the troposphere. In our one-dimensional cirrus studies, we find that the ice crystal number and size in cirrus clouds are not very sensitive to the number of condensation nuclei which are present. We have compared our three-dimensional meoscale simulations of cirrus clouds with radar, lidar satellite and other observations of water vapor and cloud fields and find that the model accurately predicts the characteristics of a cirrus cloud system. The model results reproduce several features detected by remote sensing (lidar and radar) measurements, including the appearance of the high cirrus cloud at about 15 UTC and the thickening of the cloud at 20 UTC. We have developed a new parameterizations for production of ice crystals based on the detailed one-dimensional cloud model, and are presently testing the parameterization in three-dimensional simulations of the FIRE-II November 26 case study. We have analyzed NWS radiosonde humidity data from FIRE and ARM and found errors, biases, and uncertainties in the conversion of the sensed resistance to humidity.

  17. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) and monthly and inter annual regional forecasting.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.; Sloman, L.

    2015-12-01

    By exploiting the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, GCM's can generate a statistical ensemble of future states in which the high frequency "weather" is treated as a driving noise. Following Hasselman, 1976, this has lead to stochastic models that directly generate the noise, and model the low frequencies using systems of integer ordered linear ordinary differential equations, the most well known are the linear inverse models (LIM). These have been presented as a benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast. Using the LIM, hindcast skills comparable to and sometimes even better than the skill of (coupled) Global Circulation Models (GCM's) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Nevertheless, the short range exponential temporal decorrelations implicit in the LIM models are unrealistic (the true decorrelations are closer to long range power laws), and - as a consequence - the useful limit to the forecast horizon is roughly one year: it enormously underestimates the memory of the system. In presentation, we make a scaling analogue of the LIM: ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) that exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and consequently, make use of the long history dependence of the data to improve the skill. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5º x 5º regions on the planet using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as a reference datasets. As a first step, we removed the anthropogenic component of each time series based on its sensitivity to equivalent CO2 concentration for the last 130 years, the residues are our estimates of the natural variability that SLIMM predicts. This residues were treated as fractional Gaussian noise processes with scaling exponent H between -0.5 and 0. The value of H for each grid-point can be obtained directly from the data. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we

  18. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  19. 8th Annual Glycoscience Symposium: Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Azadi, Paratoo

    2015-09-24

    The Complex Carbohydrate Research Center (CCRC) of the University of Georgia holds a symposium yearly that highlights a broad range of carbohydrate research topics. The 8th Annual Georgia Glycoscience Symposium entitled “Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly” was held on April 7, 2014 at the CCRC. The focus of symposium was on the role of glycans in plant cell wall structure and synthesis. The goal was to have world leaders in conjunction with graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and research scientists to propose the newest plant cell wall models. The symposium program closely followed the DOE’s mission and was specifically designed to highlight chemical and biochemical structures and processes important for the formation and modification of renewable plant cell walls which serve as the basis for biomaterial and biofuels. The symposium was attended by both senior investigators in the field as well as students including a total attendance of 103, which included 80 faculty/research scientists, 11 graduate students and 12 Postdoctoral students.

  20. Inter-annual climate variability and productivity models for grapevines in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinho, M.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Pinto, J. G.

    2009-09-01

    Grapevines are a major crop in Portugal, constituting an important source of income for local farmers. The Mediterranean type climate of the country strongly influences the growth and development of this crop, and ultimately the yield. Therefore, for several (9) Portuguese regions over 19 years (1986-2004), the inter-annual variability of grapevine productivity and climate data (mostly temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis) was analyzed in order to define mathematical models based on statistically significant correlations between those variables. One particular region (Vila Real, close to Demarcated Valley of Douro) was studied in more detail using the daily data available. For that purpose, a number of derived indices was calculated (e.g., number of days with positive minimum air temperature or maximum temperature above 25°C, number of days with precipitation higher than 10 mm). Close relationships between temperature, precipitation and relative air humidity were then found to influence productivity. In fact, a high-quality mathematical linear model based on these variables was found for Vila Real. Those analyses also enabled the verification of monthly climatic conditions, which are or not favorable for growth and development of grapevines; results indicate a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements. After validation, this model may be used for predicting future yields in the region and, using data from an atmospheric model, it was also possible to project a future scenario for the productivity in the period (2030-2050), based on an specific emission scenario (A1B). Lastly, in order to isolate the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most favorable/unfavorable to wine productivity, years with extremely high (e.g., 1989) and extremely low yields (e.g., 1987) were selected and the corresponding dynamical conditions were analyzed in more detail.

  1. Quantifying uncertainty in modelled estimates of annual maximum precipitation: confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Economou, Polychronis; Caroni, Chrys

    2016-04-01

    The possible nonstationarity of the GEV distribution fitted to annual maximum precipitation under climate change is a topic of active investigation. Of particular significance is how best to construct confidence intervals for items of interest arising from stationary/nonstationary GEV models.We are usually not only interested in parameter estimates but also in quantiles of the GEV distribution and it might be expected that estimates of extreme upper quantiles are far from being normally distributed even for moderate sample sizes.Therefore, we consider constructing confidence intervals for all quantities of interest by bootstrap methods based on resampling techniques. To this end, we examined three bootstrapping approaches to constructing confidence intervals for parameters and quantiles: random-t resampling, fixed-t resampling and the parametric bootstrap. Each approach was used in combination with the normal approximation method, percentile method, basic bootstrap method and bias-corrected method for constructing confidence intervals. We found that all the confidence intervals for the stationary model parameters have similar coverage and mean length. Confidence intervals for the more extreme quantiles tend to become very wide for all bootstrap methods. For nonstationary GEV models with linear time dependence of location or log-linear time dependence of scale, confidence interval coverage probabilities are reasonably accurate for the parameters. For the extreme percentiles, the bias-corrected and accelerated method is best overall, and the fixed-t method also has good average coverage probabilities. Reference: Panagoulia D., Economou P. and Caroni C., Stationary and non-stationary GEV modeling of extreme precipitation over a mountainous area under climate change, Environmetrics, 25 (1), 29-43, 2014.

  2. Intra-annual and interannual ensemble forcing of a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutton, Jan F.; Barron, Eric J.

    2000-12-01

    The use of ensemble modeling within the framework of dynamical downscaling of climate change scenarios derived from global climate model scenarios has not been fully explored. This study uses a six member ensemble of RegCM2 regional climate model simulations forced by the CCM3 global climate model to explore the one-way boundary forcing of regional interannual variability of 500 mbar heights, precipitation, and surface temperature. Anomaly pattern correlations (APCs) between the CCM3 and the RegCM2 500 mbar heights, precipitation, and surface temperature show distinct annual cycles. The January ensemble-averaged APCs for 500 mbar heights, precipitation, and surface temperature are 0.95, 0.65, and 0.90, respectively. The July correlations for the same variables are 0.63, 0.14, and 0.52, respectively. This indicates that the RegCM2 winter interannual variability is strongly dependent on the GCM interannual variability. The summer interannual variability of precipitation is found to contain little GCM-supplied signal. The ensemble run variance of the CCM3 and RegCM2 is also explored. The ratio of RegCM2 to CCM3 500 mbar height normalized ensemble run variance (NERV), a measure of climate reproducibility, is near 1.0 for various regions in the simulated domain. The RegCM2 precipitation NERV is greater than CCM3 NERV, suggesting less reproducibility and therefore less predictability. Certain regions show statistically significant reduced RegCM2 surface temperature NERV, suggesting that greater reproducibility may exist in these regions. The effect of increased topographic resolution in the RegCM2 domain was not found to significantly enhance reproducibility.

  3. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially-explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear catchment, NC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2014-10-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko framework. Our study involved the comparison of ten subcatchments in the Cape Fear watershed, NC, ranging in size and land use configuration. We analyzed the model sensitivity to the eco-hydrological parameters and the effect of extrapolating a lumped theory to a fully distributed model. Comparison of the model predictions with observations and with a lumped water balance model confirmed that the model is able to represent differences in land uses. Our results also emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the eco-hydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. In practice, our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While the results are inherently local, analysis of the model structure suggests that many insights from this study will hold globally. Further work toward characterization of uncertainties in such simple models will help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  4. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall in Nigeria: intra-annual variation of model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimoh, O. D.; Webster, P.

    1999-09-01

    A Markov model of order 1 may be used to describe the occurrence of wet and dry days in Nigeria. Such models feature two parameter sets; P01 to characterise the probability of a wet day following a dry day and P11 to characterise the probability of a wet day following a wet day. The model parameter sets, when estimated from historical records, are characterised by a distinctive seasonal behaviour. However, the comparison of this seasonal behaviour between rainfall stations is hampered by the noise reflecting the high variability of parameters on successive days. The first part of this article is concerned with methods for smoothing these inherently noisy parameter sets. Smoothing has been approached using Fourier series, averaging techniques, or a combination thereof. It has been found that different methods generally perform well with respect to estimation of the average number of wet events and the frequency duration curves of wet and dry events. Parameterisation of the P01 parameter set is more successful than the P11 in view of the relatively small number of wet events lasting two or more days. The second part of the article is concerned with describing the regional variation in smoothed parameter sets. There is a systematic variation in the P01 parameter set as one moves northwards. In contrast, there is limited regional variation in the P11 set. Although this regional variation in P01 appears to be related to the gradual movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, the contrasting behaviour of the two parameter sets is difficult to explain on physical grounds.

  5. Process-based distributed hydrological modelling of annual floods in the Upper Zambezi using the Desert Flood Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinhardt, Markus; Sven, Kralisch; Manfred, Fink; Daniel, Butchart-Kuhlmann; Anthony, Chabala; Melanie, Fleischer; Jörg, Helmschrot; Wilson, Phiri; Tina, Trautmann; Henry, Zimba; Imasiku, Nyambe

    2016-04-01

    Wetland areas are especially sensitive to changes in hydrological conditions. The catchment of the Luanginga River, a tributary of the Upper Zambezi which covers about 33000 km², shows this characteristic in an exemplary way. Ranging from the Angolan highlands to the Barotse floodplain of the Zambezi River , it is characterized by an annual flow regime and extensive wetland areas. Due to its annual flooding with peak times in April, the area features exceptionally fertile soils with high agricultural production and is further known for its rich cultural heritage, making it especially sensitive to changes of hydrological conditions . To identify possible changes related to projected climate and land management change, especially in the area of the floodplain, there is a need to apply a process-based distributed hydrological model of the annual floods . Remote sensing techniques have shown to be appropriate to identify the extend of the important flooding and were used to validate the model in space and time. The results of this research can be used as a basis with which to provide evidence-based advice and information for all decision-makers and stakeholders in the region. For this assessment , such a modelling approach is applied to adequately represent hydrological processes and to address key water resources management issues at sub-basin levels. Introducing a wetland simulation extension, the model allows to represent the annual flood regime of the system and thus to address the effect of climate change and upstream land use changes on flow regimes in the downstream watershed. In order to provide a basis for model validation and calibration, the inundated area was determined using the Desert Flood Index (DFI), which was generated from a time series of Landsat images. We will give a short introduction to the study area and related water resources management problems, present the intended model structure and show first simulations and model validation results

  6. An annual evapotranspiration model by combining Budyko curve and complementary relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Songjun; Tian, Fuqiang; Shao, Weiwei

    2015-04-01

    The complementary relationship and Budyko curve together describe the tight connections and feedbacks between water-energy balances and the landscape (Yang et al., 2006). The evapotranspiration models based on Budyko curve and complementary relationship are two kinds of parsimonious approaches for predicting mean annual catchment-scale evapotranspiration. Under the Budyko framework, actual evapotranspiration is partitioned from the precipitation as a functional balance between the water availability and the evaporative demand, and modified by catchment property parameter. The catchment property parameter was thought to be related to catchment landscape properties such as vegetation, soil, geological features, and rainfall distribution, etc.. The catchment properties seem change over time, and are difficult to be quantified (Roderick and Farquhar, 2011). Under the complementary relationship framework, actual evapotranspiration is estimated using only the routinely measured climatological variables, and the catchment properties were thought to be indirectly reflected by the relative magnitude of the aerodynamic and radiation terms of potential evapotranspiration because of the climate-vegetation-soil interactions. A implicit combination of the two approaches was conducted with the aim to represent the changing catchment properties using the relative magnitude of the aerodynamic and radiation terms of potential evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration estimation of 99 non-humid catchments in China under varying environments was improved by this method.

  7. A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

    2007-07-01

    SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

  8. Modeling Inter-annual Variability of Seasonal Evaporation and Storage Change Based on the Extended Budyko Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Alimohammadi, N.; Wang, D.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term climate is the first order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  9. Integrated ray tracing simulation of annual variation of spectral bio-signatures from cloud free 3D optical Earth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Dongok; Kim, Sug-Whan; Kim, Dae Wook; Lee, Jae-Min; Lee, Hanshin; Park, Won Hyun; Seong, Sehyun; Ham, Sun-Jeong

    2010-09-01

    Understanding the Earth spectral bio-signatures provides an important reference datum for accurate de-convolution of collapsed spectral signals from potential earth-like planets of other star systems. This study presents a new ray tracing computation method including an improved 3D optical earth model constructed with the coastal line and vegetation distribution data from the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map. Using non-Lambertian bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) models, the input earth surface model is characterized with three different scattering properties and their annual variations depending on monthly changes in vegetation distribution, sea ice coverage and illumination angle. The input atmosphere model consists of one layer with Rayleigh scattering model from the sea level to 100 km in altitude and its radiative transfer characteristics is computed for four seasons using the SMART codes. The ocean scattering model is a combination of sun-glint scattering and Lambertian scattering models. The land surface scattering is defined with the semi empirical parametric kernel method used for MODIS and POLDER missions. These three component models were integrated into the final Earth model that was then incorporated into the in-house built integrated ray tracing (IRT) model capable of computing both spectral imaging and radiative transfer performance of a hypothetical space instrument as it observes the Earth from its designated orbit. The IRT model simulation inputs include variation in earth orientation, illuminated phases, and seasonal sea ice and vegetation distribution. The trial simulation runs result in the annual variations in phase dependent disk averaged spectra (DAS) and its associated bio-signatures such as NDVI. The full computational details are presented together with the resulting annual variation in DAS and its associated bio-signatures.

  10. CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

    2016-09-01

    Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD

  11. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko hydrological framework. Our study involved the comparison of 10 subcatchments ranging in size and land-use configuration, in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. We analyzed the model sensitivity to climate variables and input parameters, and the structural error associated with the use of the Budyko framework, a lumped (catchment-scale) model theory, in a spatially explicit way. Comparison of model predictions with observations and with the lumped model predictions confirmed that the InVEST model is able to represent differences in land uses and therefore in the spatial distribution of water provisioning services. Our results emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the ecohydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. Our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land-use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While some results are context-specific, our study provides general insights and methods to help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  12. Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Favre, Alice; Philippon, Nathalie; Pohl, Benjamin; Kalognomou, Evangelia-Anna; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Nikulin, Grigori; Dosio, Alessandro; Panitz, Hans-Juergen; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth

    2016-03-01

    This study presents an evaluation of the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-Africa to reproduce the present-day spatial distribution of annual cycles of precipitation over the South African region and its borders. As found in previous studies, annual mean precipitation is quasi-systematically overestimated by the RCMs over a large part of southern Africa south of about 20°S and more strongly over South Africa. The spatial analysis of precipitation over the studied region shows that in most models the distribution of biases appears to be linked to orography. Wet biases are quasi-systematic in regions with higher elevation with inversely neutral to dry biases particularly in the coastal fringes. This spatial pattern of biases is particularly obvious during summer and specifically at the beginning of the rainy season (November and December) when the wet biases are found to be the strongest across all models. Applying a k-means algorithm, a classification of annual cycles is performed using observed precipitation data, and is compared with those derived from modeled data. It is found that the in-homogeneity of the spatial and temporal distribution of biases tends to impact the modeled seasonality of precipitation. Generally, the pattern of rainfall seasonality in the ensemble mean of the 10 RCMs tends to be shifted to the southwest. This spatial shift is mainly linked to a strong overestimation of convective precipitation at the beginning of the rainy season over the plateau inducing an early annual peak and to an underestimation of stratiform rainfall in winter and spring over southwestern South Africa.

  13. Identifying the simplest predictive model of annual runoff ratio for quantifying the hydrologic impact of climate change in a Great Lakes river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meissner, R.; Shaw, S. B.

    2014-12-01

    A standard approach to predict hydrologic fluxes in a changing climate is to downscale climate model output and feed it into a process-based hydrologic model. However, it has been demonstrated that 1) uncertainty in climate model projections often overwhelms uncertainties in the structure and parameterization of hydrologic models and 2) multiple parameter sets and structures can be used to make a hydrologic model match historical discharge (implying actual processes are not always known). Thus, it makes sense to attempt to use the simplest hydrologic model possible, both to focus on better quantifying uncertainty in climate model input and to try to ensure that the described hydrologic processes can actually be confirmed with some confidence. In addition, the use of a simple model increases the transparency of the science and can be helpful in building public consensus in making decisions regarding climate adaptation. As a case study, the Genesee River watershed was examined. The Genesee River is a 6475 sq km watershed extending from Northern Pennsylvania to Lake Ontario, running south to north. We focused on an important but simple measure of hydrologic function: the annual runoff ratio (annual average streamflow/annual average precipitation). The annual runoff ratio varies between 0.3 and 0.8 from 1927 to 2013. The obvious explanation for higher runoff ratio years - high precipitation in seasons with little evapotranspiration - does not readily explain the variations. Three simple attempts to explain this variation were explored: a statistical regression model, the Budyko Curve, and a hydrologic "bucket" model. All models were compared based on ability to replicate annual variations in runoff ratios. Preliminary analyses suggest that although the "bucket" model most closely predicts the annual runoff ratio values, none of the simple models sufficiently explain the annual runoff ratio variability. This indicates that a more complicated hydrologic model may be

  14. ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION OF TOXIC METALS TO LAKE MICHIGAN: PRELIMINARY ANNUAL MODEL CALCULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Concern is growing for the environmental water quality of the Great Lakes. tmospheric deposition of toxic substances is recognized as a major pathway of contaminants to the water medium. o estimate the annual atmospheric loadings of five toxic metals -- arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd)...

  15. Water balance model for mean annual hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions in surface waters of the contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Gabriel J.; Kennedy, Casey D.; Liu, Zhongfang; Stalker, Jeremy

    2011-12-01

    The stable H and O isotope composition of river and stream water records information on runoff sources and land-atmosphere water fluxes within the catchment and is a potentially powerful tool for network-based monitoring of ecohydrological systems. Process-based hydrological models, however, have thus far shown limited power to replicate observed large-scale variation in U.S. surface water isotope ratios. Here we develop a geographic information system-based model to predict long-term annual average surface water isotope ratios across the contiguous United States. We use elevation-explicit, gridded precipitation isotope maps as model input and data from a U.S. Geological Survey monitoring program for validation. We find that models incorporating monthly variation in precipitation-evapotranspiration (P-E) amounts account for the majority (>89%) of isotopic variation and have reduced regional bias relative to models that do not consider intra-annual P-E effects on catchment water balance. Residuals from the water balance model exhibit strong spatial patterning and correlations that suggest model residuals isolate additional hydrological signal. We use interpolated model residuals to generate optimized prediction maps for U.S. surface water δ2H and δ18O values. We show that the modeled surface water values represent a relatively accurate and unbiased proxy for drinking water isotope ratios across the United States, making these data products useful in ecological and criminal forensics applications that require estimates of the local environmental water isotope variation across large geographic regions.

  16. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed Central

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W.; Kendall, Anthony D.; Grace, Peter R.; Robertson, G. Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability. PMID:26043188

  17. Annual Rainfall Maxima: Theoretical Estimation of the GEV Shape Parameter k Using Multifractal Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veneziano, D.; Langousis, A.; Lepore, C.

    2009-12-01

    The annual maximum of the average rainfall intensity in a period of duration d, Iyear(d), is typically assumed to have generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The shape parameter k of that distribution is especially difficult to estimate from either at-site or regional data, making it important to constraint k using theoretical arguments. In the context of multifractal representations of rainfall, we observe that standard theoretical estimates of k from extreme value (EV) and extreme excess (EE) theories do not apply, while estimates from large deviation (LD) theory hold only for very small d. We then propose a new theoretical estimator based on fitting GEV models to the numerically calculated distribution of Iyear(d). A standard result from EV and EE theories is that k depends on the tail behavior of the average rainfall in d, I(d). This result holds if Iyear(d) is the maximum of a sufficiently large number n of variables, all distributed like I(d); therefore its applicability hinges on whether n = 1yr/d is large enough and the tail of I(d) is sufficiently well known. One typically assumes that at least for small d the former condition is met, but poor knowledge of the upper tail of I(d) remains an obstacle for all d. In fact, in the case of multifractal rainfall, also the first condition is not met because, irrespective of d, 1yr/d is too small (Veneziano et al., 2009, WRR, in press). Applying large deviation (LD) theory to this multifractal case, we find that, as d → 0, Iyear(d) approaches a GEV distribution whose shape parameter kLD depends on a region of the distribution of I(d) well below the upper tail, is always positive (in the EV2 range), is much larger than the value predicted by EV and EE theories, and can be readily found from the scaling properties of I(d). The scaling properties of rainfall can be inferred also from short records, but the limitation remains that the result holds under d → 0 not for finite d. Therefore, for different reasons

  18. A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steele, Timothy Doak

    1978-01-01

    Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

  19. Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jianwei; Luo, Yiqi; Natali, Susan; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Xia, Jianyang; Kowalczyk, Eva; Wang, Yingping

    2014-06-01

    Permafrost thaw and its impacts on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics are critical for predicting global climate change. It remains unclear whether annual and seasonal warming (winter or summer) affect permafrost thaw and ecosystem C balance differently. It is also required to compare the short-term stepwise warming and long-term gradual warming effects. This study validated a land surface model, the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model, at an Alaskan tundra site, and then used it to simulate permafrost thaw and ecosystem C flux under annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. The simulations were conducted under stepwise air warming (2°C yr-1) during 2007-2011, and gradual air warming (0.04°C yr-1) during 2007-2056. We hypothesized that all warming treatments induced greater permafrost thaw, and larger ecosystem respiration than plant growth thus shifting the ecosystem C sink to C source. Results only partially supported our hypothesis. Climate warming further enhanced C sink under stepwise (6-15%) and gradual (1-8%) warming scenarios as followed by annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. This is attributed to disproportionally low temperature increase in soil (0.1°C) in comparison to air warming (2°C). In a separate simulation, a greater soil warming (1.5°C under winter warming) led to a net ecosystem C source (i.e., 18 g C m-2 yr-1). This suggests that warming tundra can potentially provide positive feedbacks to global climate change. As a key variable, soil temperature and its dynamics, especially during wintertime, need to be carefully studied under global warming using both modeling and experimental approaches.

  20. Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Rouault, Mathieu; Roy, Shouraseni Sen

    2014-10-01

    The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998-2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.

  1. Stochastic models and spectra of interannual variability of mean annual sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Privalsky, V. E.

    1988-10-01

    Estimates of one- and two-variate autoregressive models of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) in five Smed squares in the North Atlantic are obtained by analysing time series of SST, 1881-1970. Year-to-year variations of SST are shown to follow the AR model of order one with a regression parameter of 0.5 so that their generalized spectrum decreases monotonically and relatively fast with frequency while the limits of statistical predictability amount up to two years. Two-variate models of SST reveal frequency-dependent time lags up to three years and possess slightly better statistical predictability. A feedback in the system of warm and cold currents is found with a characteristic time scale of about six years, which plays an important role in the system's energy budget.

  2. A Nonstationary Hidden Markov Model for Stochastic Streamflow Simulation and Inter-annual Forecasting in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bracken, C. W.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E. A.

    2011-12-01

    Upper Colorado River Basin annual flow exhibits very low autocorrelation but regime shifting behavior causing long departures from the historical average flow producing sustained wet and dry periods. Traditional stochastic time series models do not capture this feature thereby misleading the water resources system risk and consequently impacting the management and planning efforts. To address this, we developed a nonstationary Hidden Markov (HM) model with Gamma component distributions, as opposed to Normal distributions which is widely used in literature, for stochastic simulation and short term forecasting. Global decoding from this model reveals and captures strong underlying persistent structure in the Lees Ferry flow time series. In addition to capturing the shifting mean, simulations from this model have a 20% greater chance than a first order Auto Regressive model (AR1), the best time series model for this data, of simulating wet and dry runs of 6 or more years. Relative to AR1 the HM model also captures the spectral features quite well. When applied to short term forecasting (i.e. of 1-2 years) they show higher skill relative to climatology but also to an AR1 model.

  3. Annual plankton dynamics in a coupled physical-biological model of the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña, M. Angelica; Masson, Diane; Callendar, Wendy

    2016-08-01

    A three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was developed to study the dynamics of the plankton ecosystem in the Strait of Georgia (SoG) estuary. The ocean circulation component is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the lower trophic level ecosystem is a nine-compartment Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model that includes two types of phytoplankton and of zooplankton. A three year hindcast (2007-2009) is used to examine the mean annual seasonal cycle of the local plankton dynamics. For realistic values of irradiance, wind forcing and fresh water fluxes, the model predicts a seasonal cycle of salinity, nutrients and plankton in reasonable agreement with observations. In particular, the model reproduces the main features of the estuarine circulation, the marked increase in phytoplankton biomass during spring followed by intermittent less intense blooms during summer and fall, as well as the seasonal pattern of zooplankton biomass. Model results show that primary production fluctuates between low values in January and high values in April, with an annual production of 270 ± 33 (gC m-2) in the SoG. Most primary production is fueled by nitrate (f-ratio of about 0.7). Upwelling is the main source of nitrate into the upper layer, while most of the nitrate entering the Strait is exported out by horizontal advection. Physical processes, such as freshwater inflow, wind events, tidal mixing, and horizontal transports are important in maintaining the high spatio-temporal variability of the local phytoplankton biomass and production. Horizontal variability is high during the growing season (March to September). In summer, phytoplankton concentrates near the surface, in the shallow mixed layer, resulting in sporadic nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth. In the northern portion of the strait, weaker summer winds and tidal currents lead to increased near-surface stratification which restricts nutrient fluxes and limit

  4. A modelling study of inter-annual variation of Kuroshio intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiaxing; Wei, Hao; Zhang, Zhihua; Lu, Youyu

    2013-12-01

    Inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio water intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea (ECS) was simulated with a nested global and Northwest Pacific ocean circulation model. The model analysis reveals the influence of the variability of Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan on the intrusion to the northeast of Taiwan: high correlation ( r = 0.92) with the on-shore volume flux in the lower layer (50-200 m); low correlation ( r = 0.50) with the on-shore flux in the upper layer (0-50 m). Spatial distribution of correlations between volume fluxes and sea surface height suggests that inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio flux east of Taiwan and its subsurface water intruding to the shelf lag behind the sea surface height anomalies in the central Pacific at 162°E by about 14 months, and could be related to wind-forced variation in the interior North Pacific that propagates westward as Rossby waves. The intrusion of Kuroshio surface water is also influenced by local winds. The intruding Kuroshio subsurface water causes variations of temperature and salinity of bottom waters on the southern ECS shelf. The influence of the intruding Kuroshio subsurface water extends widely from the shelf slope northeast of Taiwan northward to the central ECS near the 60 m isobath, and northeastward to the region near the 90 m isobath.

  5. Modeling the Ecohydrologic Response of the Forest-Grassland Ecotone in Western Canada to Changes in Annual Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yetemen, O.; Ireson, A. M.; Barr, A.; Melton, J. R.; Black, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    The ecotone between the southern boreal forest and the grassland of western Canada is controlled by the water balance, and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Although ecohydrologic fluxes are being investigated at the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) at the stand level, the ecohydrologic response of this ecotone to climate change is poorly understood. We use CTEM (the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model), coupled to CLASS (the Canadian Land Surface Scheme), to explore the structural and functional responses of the forest-grassland ecotone to climatic variability. The initial evaluations of CLASS-CTEM are being done using data from three mature forest sites (jack pine, aspen and black spruce) at BERMS and one grassland site. The model is forced with observed climate data between 1997 and 2010 by using each year, run repeatedly with a 400 year spin up, as one climatic scenario. Preliminary results show a sigmoidal response of annual gross primary production (GPP) to annual precipitation within each plant functional type, with limited GPP at low precipitation, higher but uniform GPP at high precipitation, and an intermediate precipitation range where GPP responds sensitively to increasing precipitation.

  6. Modelling the impact of retention-detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction.

    PubMed

    Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, Søren; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Taylor, Heidi; Bockhorn, Britta; Larsen, Hauge; Kjølby, Morten Just; Blicher, Anne Steensen; Binning, Philip John

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark. The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m³/100 m² (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous simulations covering 22 years showed that annual stormwater runoff was reduced by 68-87%, and that the retention volume was on average 53% full at the beginning of rain events. The effect of different retention-detention volume combinations was simulated, and results showed that allocating 20-40% of a soakaway volume to detention would significantly increase peak runoff reduction with a small reduction in the annual runoff. PMID:25812100

  7. A rainfall-runoff modeling procedure for improving estimates of T-year (annual) floods for small drainage basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lichty, Robert W.; Liscum, Fred

    1978-01-01

    Maps depicting the influence of a climatic factor, C, on the magnitude of synthetic T-year (annual) floods were prepared for a large portion of the eastern United States. The climatic factors were developed by regression analysis of flood data using a parametric rainfall-runoff model and long-term rainfall records. Map estimates of C values and calibrated values of rainfall-runoff model parameters were used as variables in a synthetic T-year flood relation to compute ' map-model ' flood estimates for 98 small drainage basins in a six-state study area. Improved estimates of T-year floods were computed as a weighted average of the map-model estimate and an observed estimate, with the weights proportional to the relative accuracies of the two estimates. The accuracy of the map-model estimates was appraised by decomposing components of variance into average time-sampling error associated with the observed estimates and average map-model error. Map-model estimates have an accuracy, in terms of equivalent length of observed record, that ranges from 6 years for the 1.25-year flood up to 30 years for the 50- and 100-year flood. (Woodard-USGS)

  8. Modeling the annual soil erosion rate in the mouth of river Pineios' sub-basin in Thessaly County, Greece.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilia, Ioanna; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas

    2015-04-01

    Erosion is a natural - geomorphological phenomenon, active through geological time that is considered as one of the main agents that forms the earth surface. Soil erosion models estimate the rates of soil erosion and provide useful information and guidance for the development of appropriate intervention and soil conservation practices and strategies. A significant number of soil erosion models can be found in literature; however, the most extensively applied model is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) established in 1997 by Renard KG, Foster GR, Weesies GA, McCool DK and Yoder DC. RUSLE is an empirically based model that enables the estimation of the average annual rate of soil erosion for an area of interest providing several alternative scenarios involving cropping systems, management methods and erosion control strategies. According to RUSLE model's specifications five major factors (rainfall pattern, soil type, topography, crop system, and management practices) are utilized for estimating the average annual erosion through the following equation: A=RxKxLxSxCxP, PIC where A is the computed spatial average soil loss and temporal average soil loss per unit area (tons ha-1 year-1), R the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (MJ mm ha-1h-1 year-1), K the soil erodibility factor (tons h MJ-1 mm-1), L the slope - length factor, S the slope steepness factor, C the cover management factor and P the conservation support practice factor. L, S, C and P factors are all dimensionless. The present study aims to utilize a GIS-based RUSLE model in order to estimate the average annual soil loss rate in the sub-basin extending at the mouth of Pineios river in Thessaly County, Greece. The area covers approximate 775.9 km2 with a mean slope angle of 7.8o. The rainfall data of 39 gauge station from 1980 to 2000 where used in order to predict the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R). The K-factor was estimated using soil maps available from the European Soil Portal with a

  9. 77 FR 61748 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-11

    ... Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling AGENCY: Office... public meeting of the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) will convene to discuss the latest developments in environmental modeling applications, tools...

  10. Statistically Integrated Flow and Flood Modelling Compared to Hydrologically Integrated Quantity and Quality Model for Annual Flows in the Regulated Macquarie River in Arid Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Shiquan; Kingsford, Richard T.

    2011-07-01

    Water resource management traditionally depends on use of highly complex hydrological models designed originally to manage water for abstraction but increasingly relied on to determine ecological impacts and test ecological rehabilitation opportunities. These models are rarely independently tested. We compared a relatively simple statistical model, integrated flow and flood modelling (IFFM), with a complex hydrological model, the integrated quality and quantity model (IQQM), on the highly regulated Macquarie River of the Murray-Darling Basin, southeastern Australia. We compared annual flows (1891-2007) at three gauges to actual data and modelled output: before dams and diversions (unregulated) and after river regulation (regulated), using the goodness of fit (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency) and nonparametric tests. IQQM underestimated impacts of river regulation respectively on median and average flows at the Macquarie Marshes (Oxley gauge) by about 10% and 16%, compared to IFFM. IFFM model output more closely matched actual unregulated and regulated flows than IQQM which tended to underestimate unregulated flows and overestimate regulated flows at the Ramsar-listed wetland. Output was reasonably similar for the two models at the other two flow gauges. Relatively simple statistical models could more reliably estimate ecological impact at floodplains of large river systems, as well as an independent assessment tool compared to complex hydrological models. Finally, such statistical models may be valuable for predicting ecological responses to environmental flows, given their simplicity and relative ease to run.

  11. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Models in the St. Joseph River Watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This study evaluated the performance of two water quality models in accordance to specific tasks designated in the USDA Agricultural Research Service Conservation Effects Assessment Project. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) models ...

  12. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual P loss estimator (APLE) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that there are inherent uncertainties with model predictions, limited studies have addressed model prediction uncertainty. In this study we assess the effect of model input error on predict...

  13. Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale P loss

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Several models with varying degrees of complexity are available for describing P movement through the landscape. The complexity of these models is dependent on the amount of data required by the model, the number of model parameters needed to be estimated, the theoretical rigor of the governing equa...

  14. Mean SST bias and variability at inter-annual and decadal time-scales in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, Irene; Villamayor, Julian; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa

    2016-04-01

    Analysis of model systematic errors in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has generally focused on local processes and particular basins. Mean warm bias over the south subtropical upwelling systems in coupled models are largely studied and local cloud cover, alongshore winds and ocean stratification are pointed out as the responsible processes. Mean errors have impacts on the variability but this is less understood. In this study we try to understand the relation between mean global SST biases and how models perform the variability at different time-scales. To this end, we calculate the SST variability modes for 18 models in the preindustrial control CMIP5 experiment. We first analyse the seasonality of those modes and the inter-model differences. Associated parameters are confronted with the mean SST bias variability among models, thus we conclude how realistic models simulate the variability depending on the mean SST bias. Preliminary results suggest that models with cooler (warmer) that average SST mean bias over the southern hemisphere reproduce better (worse) the Inter-Decadal Pacific variability. Similar mean bias pattern has an effect on the skill for reproducing Pacific El Nino and Atlantic Nino modes. Finally an inter-model SST bias variability mode is found relating errors over the southern upwelling systems with cloud cover around 60S and equatorial precipitation shift. This mode is able to summarize some features in relation with inter-decadal to inter-annual variability in CMIP5 models and thus represents a potential tool to understand the wider picture in relation to SST biases and future projections.

  15. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

  16. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    2012-01-01

    Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

  17. Using Predictive Modeling To Target Student Recruitment: Theory and Practice. AIR 1999 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Emily; Reznik, Gayle; Dawes, William

    This paper argues that a typical use of regression models to target student recruitment efforts is theoretically unsound and may therefore be operationally inefficient. It presents results from a study using a predictive model to identify the prospective students on whom recruitment efforts have the greatest impact. The model uses four kinds of…

  18. Analyzing Faculty Workload Data Using Multilevel Modeling. AIR 2000 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, Stephen R.; Umbach, Paul

    This study used the multilevel modeling method to analyze the research productivity of 1,104 tenured or tenure track faculty from the 1993 National Study of Postsecondary Faculty. The study compared statistical and substantive results of multilevel modeling (or hierarchical linear modeling) to the traditional regression approach. Two dependent…

  19. Predicting Distribution and Inter-Annual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity from a Stochastic, Multiple-Linear Regression Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. Y.; Tippett, M. K.; Sobel, A. H.; Camargo, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    We are working towards the development of a new statistical-dynamical downscaling system to study the influence of climate on tropical cyclones (TCs). The first step is development of an appropriate model for TC intensity as a function of environmental variables. We approach this issue with a stochastic model consisting of a multiple linear regression model (MLR) for 12-hour intensity forecasts as a deterministic component, and a random error generator as a stochastic component. Similar to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), MLR relates the surrounding environment to storm intensity, but with only essential predictors calculated from monthly-mean NCEP reanalysis fields (potential intensity, shear, etc.) and from persistence. The deterministic MLR is developed with data from 1981-1999 and tested with data from 2000-2012 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, Western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere basins. While the global MLR's skill is comparable to that of the operational statistical models (e.g., SHIPS), the distribution of the predicted maximum intensity from deterministic results has a systematic low bias compared to observations; the deterministic MLR creates almost no storms with intensities greater than 100 kt. The deterministic MLR can be significantly improved by adding the stochastic component, based on the distribution of random forecasting errors from the deterministic model compared to the training data. This stochastic component may be thought of as representing the component of TC intensification that is not linearly related to the environmental variables. We find that in order for the stochastic model to accurately capture the observed distribution of maximum storm intensities, the stochastic component must be auto-correlated across 12-hour time steps. This presentation also includes a detailed discussion of the distributions of other TC-intensity related quantities, as well as the inter-annual

  20. From the bush to the bench: the annual Nothobranchius fishes as a new model system in biology.

    PubMed

    Cellerino, Alessandro; Valenzano, Dario R; Reichard, Martin

    2016-05-01

    African annual fishes from the genus Nothobranchius are small teleosts that inhabit temporary water bodies subject to annual desiccation due to the alternation of the monsoon seasons. Given their unique biology, these fish have emerged as a model taxon in several biological disciplines. Their increasing popularity stems from the extremely short lifespan that is the result of their specific life-history adaptations and is retained under laboratory conditions. Nothobranchius furzeri, the most popular laboratory species, is the vertebrate species with the shortest lifespan recorded in captivity. In the laboratory, adults of different Nothobranchius species and populations live between 3 and 18 months and, notably, there is a negative correlation between the captive lifespan of a species and the aridity of their habitat. Their short lifespan is coupled to rapid age-dependent functional decline and expression of cellular and molecular changes comparable to those observed in other vertebrates, including humans. The recent development of transgenesis in this species makes it possible to insert specific constructs into their genome, and the establishment of transgenic lines is facilitated by their very rapid generation time, which can be as short as 1 month. This makes Nothobranchius species particularly suited for investigating biological and molecular aspects of ageing and ageing-associated dysfunctions. At the same time, they also represent a unique model taxon to investigate the evolution of life-history adaptations and their genetic architecture. We review their natural history, including phylogenetic relationships, distribution in relation to habitat conditions and natural selection for differential longevity, population structure and demography, and life cycle with emphasis on diapause that may occur at three stages during embryonic development. We further critically evaluate their use as a laboratory model for understanding the evolution of a rapid ageing rate and

  1. Variations in the elemental ratio of organic matter in the central Baltic Sea: Part II - Sensitivities of annual mass flux estimates to model parameter variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreus, Markus; Schartau, Markus

    2015-06-01

    This study describes a sensitivity analysis that allows the parameters of a one-dimensional ecosystem model to be ranked according to their specificity in determining biochemical key fluxes. Key fluxes of interest are annual (a) total production (TP), (b) remineralization above the halocline (RM), and (c) export at 50 m (EX) at the Baltic Sea monitoring site BY15 located in the Gotland Deep basin. The model resolves mass flux of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorous (P), while considering nitrogen fixation explicitly. Our first null hypothesis is that the variation of the value of every single model parameter affects each annual C, N, and P budget simultaneously. Our second null hypothesis states that the variation of every parameter value induces changes at least in either of the annual C, N or P budgets. Our analyses falsify both null hypotheses and reveal that 8 out of 36 parameters must be regarded redundant, as their variation neither alter annual key fluxes nor produce considerable time-shifts in model trajectories at the respective site. Seven parameters were found to induce substantial changes in annual C, N, and P flux estimates simultaneously. The assimilation efficiency of zooplankton turned out to be of vital importance. This parameter discriminates between the assimilation and destruction of algal prey during grazing. The fraction of unassimilated dead algal cells is critical for the amount of organic matter exported out of the euphotic zone. The maximum cellular N:C quota of diazotrophs and the degradation/hydrolysis rate of detrital carbon are two parameters that will likely remain unconstrained by time series data, but both affect the annual C budget considerably. Overall, our detailed specification of model sensitivities to parameter variations will facilitate the formulation of a well-posed inverse problem for the estimation of C, N and P fluxes from stock observations at the Gotland Deep.

  2. An Economically Driven Enrollment Projections Model. AIR 1986 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yost, Michael, Jr.; Chino, Laney

    An admissions/enrollment model was developed using 5 years of data on undergraduate and graduate enrollment, admissions, budget and tuition revenues, and anticipated tuition costs. The model produced estimates of admissions and enrollment numbers required to meet projected increases in the institutional budget. Using a variation of the Markov…

  3. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  4. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-08-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. Here we investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and also of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the tropical Pacific mean climate and annual cycle, and their combined impact on ENSO during the Pliocene. To this end the Kiel Climate Model), a global climate model, is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15-20 %. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages enhances ENSO strength but only by about 6 %. ENSO period changes are modest and the spectral ENSO peak stays rather broad. Annual cycle changes are more prominent. An intensification of the annual cycle by about 50 % is simulated in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. In comparison to the closing of the Panama Seaway, the narrowing of the Indonesian Passages only drives relatively weak changes in the annual cycle. A robust relationship is found such that ENSO amplitude strengthens when the annual cycle amplitude weakens.

  5. The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 1. Hydrology Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colgan, William; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert; Steffen. Konrad; Phillips, Thomas; Zwally, H. Jay; Abdalati, Waleed

    2012-01-01

    We apply a novel one-dimensional glacier hydrology model that calculates hydraulic head to the tidewater-terminating Sermeq Avannarleq flowline of the Greenland ice sheet. Within a plausible parameter space, the model achieves a quasi-steady-state annual cycle in which hydraulic head oscillates close to flotation throughout the ablation zone. Flotation is briefly achieved during the summer melt season along a approx.17 km stretch of the approx.50 km of flowline within the ablation zone. Beneath the majority of the flowline, subglacial conduit storage closes (i.e. obtains minimum radius) during the winter and opens (i.e. obtains maximum radius) during the summer. Along certain stretches of the flowline, the model predicts that subglacial conduit storage remains open throughout the year. A calculated mean glacier water residence time of approx.2.2 years implies that significant amounts of water are stored in the glacier throughout the year. We interpret this residence time as being indicative of the timescale over which the glacier hydrologic system is capable of adjusting to external surface meltwater forcings. Based on in situ ice velocity observations, we suggest that the summer speed-up event generally corresponds to conditions of increasing hydraulic head during inefficient subglacial drainage. Conversely, the slowdown during fall generally corresponds to conditions of decreasing hydraulic head during efficient subglacial drainage.

  6. Annual Report: Property Improvement in CZT via Modeling and Processing Innovations

    SciTech Connect

    Henager, Charles H.; Setyawan, Wahyu; Gao, Fei; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Bliss, Mary; Riley, Brian J.; Alvine, Kyle J.; Stave, Jean A.

    2013-09-01

    The objective of this project is to develop growth models of CZT crystals from the melt using vertical gradient freeze (VGF) or vertical Bridgman growth as a typical process. Further, the project will perform critical experiments including single crystal growth to validate the growth models and to provide detailed data for modeling and simulation. Ideally, the project will develop growth models that will provide, for the first time, choices for optimal CZT single crystal growth from the melt based on model input. The overarching goal that guides this research proposal is to produce large, single crystals of CZT with good yield and reproducible properties. In our view this depends on 1) understanding crystal growth processes, including annealing and cool-down processing, and 2) understanding the role of defects on detector response since it is not possible, yet, to produce defect-free materials. Models of defect structure and formation are addressed. Validated models and experiments on reducing defects in melt-grown crystals are used to guide our understanding of growth processes and in-furnace annealing plus cool-down.

  7. The AFTAC model integration project: An annual progress report. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez, D.J.; Moore, R.M.

    1993-12-01

    The EXPRESS and ADPIC models have been designed to assist emergency personnel in their response to radiological accidents. Closure on the development of an operational version of the HADPIC Modeling System (HMS), a multi-faceted application that supports the hemispheric ADPIC (HADPIC) atmospheric dispersion model on a Sun workstation, was achieved toward the end of the fiscal year. The fulfilling tasks over the period encompassed by this report included: (1) the generation of software for calculating average concentrations at arbitrary locations in the model domain and displaying isopleths of concentration and (2) the comprehensive testing of major components of the HMS using IEEE standards. Scientists for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Institute of Experimental Meteorology in Obninsk, Russia, extensively evaluated their respective models (ADPIC/U.S. and EXPRESS/Russia) using perfluorocarbon tracer data from the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX). The results of both models are reported here because of the useful insights they provide regarding limits of performance as a function of model sophistication and the quality of the input meteorology.

  8. Salt Repository Project: Waste Package Program (WPP) modeling activiteis: FY 1984 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Kuhn, W.L.; Simonson, S.A.; Pulsipher, B.A.

    1987-03-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is supporting the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Salt Repository Project (SRP) through its Waste Package Program (WPP). During FY 1984, the WPP continued its program of waste package component development and interactions testing and application of the resulting data base to develop predictive models describing waste package degradation and radionuclide release. Within the WPP, the Modeling Task (Task 04 during FY 1984) was conducted to interpret the tests in such a way that scientifically defensible models can be developed for use in qualification of the waste package.

  9. Estimation of Annual Average Soil Loss, Based on Rusle Model in Kallar Watershed, Bhavani Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahaman, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.; Ajeez, S. Abdul

    2015-10-01

    Soil erosion is a widespread environmental challenge faced in Kallar watershed nowadays. Erosion is defined as the movement of soil by water and wind, and it occurs in Kallar watershed under a wide range of land uses. Erosion by water can be dramatic during storm events, resulting in wash-outs and gullies. It can also be insidious, occurring as sheet and rill erosion during heavy rains. Most of the soil lost by water erosion is by the processes of sheet and rill erosion. Land degradation and subsequent soil erosion and sedimentation play a significant role in impairing water resources within sub watersheds, watersheds and basins. Using conventional methods to assess soil erosion risk is expensive and time consuming. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), coupled with the use of an empirical model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation- RUSLE) to assess risk, can identify and assess soil erosion potential and estimate the value of soil loss. GIS data layers including, rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodability (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C) and conservation practice (P) factors were computed to determine their effects on average annual soil loss in the study area. The final map of annual soil erosion shows a maximum soil loss of 398.58 t/ h-1/ y-1. Based on the result soil erosion was classified in to soil erosion severity map with five classes, very low, low, moderate, high and critical respectively. Further RUSLE factors has been broken into two categories, soil erosion susceptibility (A=RKLS), and soil erosion hazard (A=RKLSCP) have been computed. It is understood that functions of C and P are factors that can be controlled and thus can greatly reduce soil loss through management and conservational measures.

  10. Model Watershed Development in Eastern Washington, Administrative Project Support, Annual Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Bottman, Bob; Bartels, Duane; Johnson, Bradley J.

    1998-10-28

    The purpose of the Model Watershed Coordinator Grant was to help impact water quality and fisheries habitat concerns within the Asotin Creek Watershed by developing relationships between local landowners and resource agencies in the area.

  11. Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

    PubMed

    Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

    2016-09-15

    Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. PMID:27203517

  12. Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand

    PubMed Central

    Blakely, Tony; Cobiac, Linda J.; Cleghorn, Christine L.; Pearson, Amber L.; van der Deen, Frederieke S.; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Melissa; Wilson, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Background Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD

  13. Bayesian Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Nigeria, Including Annual Deworming Requirements

    PubMed Central

    Oluwole, Akinola S.; Ekpo, Uwem F.; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M.; Olamiju, Francisca O.; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J.; Braide, Eka I.; Mafiana, Chiedu F.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-01-01

    Background The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. Methodology STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. Principal Findings We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. Conclusions/Significance The predictive risk maps and estimated

  14. Eddy permitting simulation of the global ocean model COCO4.3 driven by the CORE inter- annual forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, T.; Hasumi, H.; Komuro, Y.; Sakamoto, T. T.

    2008-12-01

    We are developing ocean component of the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC climate model to conduct high-resolution global warming simulations under IPCC scenarios. This presentation focuses on the performance and the behavior and role of eddies in the global ocean. The Ocean model is CCSR Ocean Component Model (COCO) version 4.3, which is a z-coordinate, free-surface primitive equation ocean model with multi-category sea ice model. The geographical North Pole is moved to 40W, 77N on Greenland and the geographical South Pole is moved to 40E, 77S. The computational domain covers global ocean, with zonal grid spacing of 0.28125 degree and meridional grid spacing of 0.1875 degree. There are 50 vertical levels excluding the bottom boundary layer, and 7 of which are within the sigma-coordinate (~42m). The model employs the momentum advection algorithm of Ishizaki and Motoi (1991), which is a pseudo-enstrophy preserving scheme with a consideration for up-/down-sloping advection. The model's tracer advection is based on the second-order moment (SOM) advection scheme of Prather, M. J. (1986). The vertical mixing of momentum and tracers is represented by a harmonic form. The coefficients are calculated by the parameterization of Noh and Kim (1999), but the formulation is slightly modified (see K1-developers, 2004). As background diffusivity, a minimum value is set for each level, suggested by Tsujino et al. (2000). The Smagorinsky's (1963) biharmonic viscosity is applied for the lateral momentum mixing, and its coefficient is dependent on the grid width and the strain rate, and its controlled by a single non- dimensional parameter whose values is taken to be 2.5. The constant coefficient biharmonic diffusion is applied with the coefficient value of 1.0E9 m4/s. The model is driven by the inter-annual forcing data set adopted by common ocean-ice reference experiments (CORE). The results are reported by focusing on heat transport in strong eddy activity regions, such as the Kuroshio

  15. Inter-annual Variations and Trend Analyses of Precipitation and Vapor Isotopes with a Global Isotope Circulation Model and Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshimura, K.; Oki, T.

    2006-12-01

    An atmosphere, land, sea surface, and river-coupled global isotope circulation model has been developed and it successfully reproduced spatial distribution of precipitation and vapor isotopes as well as those of "real" daily to inter-annual cycles provided by GNIP. A relationship between ENSO and simulated isotope ratio anomaly shows significant signals in DJF. They show lows in Greenland, southern USA and center of the Pacific, and highs in the northern North America, South America, and center of Asia in El Nino periods. Mostly vice versa in La Nina periods. In low latitude zones, it corresponds with the anomaly variations of precipitation amount, but in high latitudes, isotopes show original information on complex water circulation. Further investigation will be done by the presentation. Long-term trends of anomaly of precipitation isotopes are interesting, too. The observation show significant increase of precipitation isotope ratio over west Europe and the simulation agrees with it. Very simply speaking, when hydrologic cycle is enhanced, precipitation isotope will be increased, because the residence time of vapor becomes shorter. The trends in GNIP and the model is well agreed with Dirmeyer and Brubaker's (2006) finding the increase trend of recycling ratio in Northern Hemisphere. GNIP, we often regard it as "already understood", still has unknown to be tackled with.

  16. Modeling Comparative Daily Enrollment Indicators To Aid Intelligent College Decisions. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lajubutu, Oyebanjo A.

    This paper shows how three critical enrollment indicators drawn from a relationship database were used to guide planning and management decisions. The paper discusses the guidelines for the development of the model, attributes needed, variables to be calculated, and other issues that may improve the effectiveness and efficiency of daily enrollment…

  17. An Interactive Model for Studying Student Retention. AIR 1990 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glover, Robert H.; Wilcox, Jerry

    A design for improving the quality of information available for continuous operational study of student retention at the University of Hartford in Connecticut was examined involving a microcomputer based decision support system for student retention research. The system, an interactive modeling approach to conduct longitudinal and comparative…

  18. Using Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Capital Project Review. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaynor, Robert K.

    The value of microcomputer modeling tools and spreadsheets to help college institutional researchers analyze proposed capital projects is discussed, along with strengths and weaknesses of different software packages. Capital budgeting is the analysis that supports decisions about the allocation and commitment of funds to long-term capital…

  19. A Student Environment Model: A Measure of Institutional Effectiveness. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris-Baldwin, Darline

    This study traces the development of a student environment model (SEM) at Texas State Technical College (Waco) that is used to assess students' perceptions of their college environment outside the formal classroom, provides baseline data for comparative analyses, establishes goals for student support services, measures program and process…

  20. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2007: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns)concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 calen...

  1. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2006 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2006 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  2. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2001 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2001 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O 3...

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2003 – Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2003 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  4. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2005 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2005 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2002– Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2002 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  6. Studying Faculty Flows Using an Interactive Spreadsheet Model. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Wayne

    This paper describes a spreadsheet-based faculty flow model developed and implemented at the University of Calgary (Canada) to analyze faculty retirement, turnover, and salary issues. The study examined whether, given expected faculty turnover, the current salary increment system was sustainable in a stable or declining funding environment, and…

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2008: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA’s Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns) concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 ca...

  8. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  9. Using an Ablation Gradient Model to Characterize Annual Glacial Melt Contribution to Major Rivers in High Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodzik, M. J.; Armstrong, R. L.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Racoviteanu, A.; Rittger, K.

    2014-12-01

    Ice melt from mountain glaciers can represent a significant contribution to freshwater hydrological budgets, along with seasonal snow melt, rainfall and groundwater. In the rivers of High Asia, understanding the proportion of glacier ice melt is critical for water resource management of irrigation and planning for hydropower generation and human consumption. Current climate conditions are producing heterogeneous glacier responses across the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan ranges. However, it is not yet clear how contrasting glacier patterns affect regional water resources. For example, in the Upper Indus basin, estimates of glacial contribution to runoff are often not distinguished from seasonal snow contribution, and vary widely, from as little as 15% to as much as 55%. While many studies are based on reasonable concepts, most are based on assumptions uninformed by actual snow or ice cover measurements. While straightforward temperature index models have been used to estimate glacier runoff in some Himalayan basins, application of these models in larger Himalayan basins is limited by difficulties in estimating key model parameters, particularly air temperature. Estimating glacial area from the MODIS Permanent Snow and Ice Extent (MODICE) product for the years 2000-2013, with recently released Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTMGL3) elevation data, we use a simple ablation gradient approach to calculate an upper limit on the contribution of clean glacier ice melt to streamflow data. We present model results for the five major rivers with glaciated headwaters in High Asia: the Bramaputra, Ganges, Indus, Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Using GRDC historical discharge records, we characterize the annual contribution from glacier ice melt. We use MODICE interannual trends in each basin to estimate glacier ice melt uncertainties. Our results are being used in the USAID project, Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice and Snow (CHARIS), to inform regional-scale planning for

  10. Climate system modeling program. Annual report, September 1, 1991--August 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schimel, D.; Bretherton, F.

    1993-05-14

    The CSMP proposal to NSF contained a description of a project to examine variability of the climate system on decadal-to-contennial time scales, with an emphasis on eventually understanding the processes which led to climate variability over the past one to two centuries as a basis for validating models of potential future changes. The project thus focused first, on understanding, and second on understanding as a basis for the development of validation procedures for models intended for use in climate change applications. The principal activity of the first year of the project was a workshop on one of the major sources of interdecadal variability-the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the oceans. This workshop was focused on review of the cutting edge science of the THC, and on identification of opportunities for future research. The workshop report is attached.

  11. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes. Annual report, October 1990--September 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, P.R.; Serio, M.A.; Hamblen, D.G.; Smoot, L.D.; Brewster, B.S.

    1991-12-31

    The overall objective of this program is the development of predictive capability for the design, scale up, simulation, control and feedstock evaluation in advanced coal conversion devices. This program will merge significant advances made in measuring and quantitatively describing the mechanisms in coal conversion behavior. Comprehensive computer codes for mechanistic modeling of entrained-bed gasification. Additional capabilities in predicting pollutant formation will be implemented and the technology will be expanded to fixed-bed reactors.

  12. Modeling and simulation support for ICRF heating of fusion plasmas. Annual report, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    1990-03-15

    Recent experimental, theoretical and computational results have shown the need and usefulness of a combined approach to the design, analysis and evaluation of ICH antenna configurations. The work at the University of Wisconsin (UW) in particular has shown that much needed information on the vacuum operation of ICH antennas can be obtained by a modest experimental and computational effort. These model experiments at UW and SAIC simulations have shown dramatically the potential for positive impact upon the ICRF program. Results of the UW-SAIC joint ICRF antenna analysis effort have been presented at several international meetings and numerous meetings in the United States. The PPPL bay M antenna has been modeled using the ARGUS code. The results of this effort are shown in Appendix C. SAIC has recently begun a collaboration with the ICRF antenna design and analysis group at ORNL. At present there are two separate projects underway. The first is associated with the simulation of and determination of the effect of adding slots in the antenna septum and side walls. The second project concerns the modeling and simulation of the ORNL folded waveguide (FWG) concept.

  13. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore, a

  14. Towards a Process-based Representation of Annual Crops Within the Land Surface Model JULES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van den Hoof, C.; Vidale, P.

    2008-05-01

    The purpose of this work is to introduce a generic crop structure within the Joint UK Land surface Exchange Scheme JULES (Cox, 1998) that is able to evaluate the interaction between growing crops and the environment at large scales for a wide range of atmospheric conditions. JULES was designed to simulate land surface processes in natural ecosystems. The importance of representing agricultural land within global biosphere models has been pointed out in many studies (De Noblet-Ducoudre et al., 2004; Bondeau 2005 et al.). Prior to any model development, the sensitivity of JULES to morphological and physiological differences between natural vegetation and crops has been investigated by reparameterising a natural C3 grass into a C3 crop. For a case study of fallow versus wheat at Grignon (France), the model output shows important soil water savings after crop harvest at the beginning of the summer. Owing to the lack of a rooting system, the deeper soil moisture cannot contribute anymore to the moisture flux to the atmosphere. On a shorter timescale, the harvest, and by consequence the sudden appearance of bare soil, also disrupt the energy and momentum fluxes between surface and atmosphere. Having established the sensitivity of the JULES system to a crop-like forcing, some components from the crop model SUCROS (Goudriaan and van Laar, 1994) that are relevant to the global water, energy and carbon cycles, have been introduced in JULES. The new version of JULES, denoted by JULES-SUCROS, incorporates crops and natural vegetation within a single modelling framework, without discontinuity in the photosynthesis-assimilation scheme between both vegetation types. Simulations have been performed with JULES-SUCROS for wheat at the Grignon site in current and doubled CO2 atmospheric conditions. Changing atmospheric conditions in JULES-SUCROS affects the sowing date and the length of the growing season. The results show that the positive effect of the CO2 fertilisation partly

  15. Modeling cloud microphysics using a two-moments hybrid bulk/bin scheme for use in Titan’s climate models: Application to the annual and diurnal cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgalat, J.; Rannou, P.; Cours, T.; Rivière, E. D.

    2014-03-01

    Microphysical models describe the way aerosols and clouds behave in the atmosphere. Two approaches are generally used to model these processes. While the first approach discretizes processes and aerosols size distributions on a radius grid (bin scheme), the second uses bulk parameters of the size distribution law (its mathematical moments) to represent the evolution of the particle population (moment scheme). However, with the latter approach, one needs to have an a priori knowledge of the size distributions. Moments scheme for Cloud microphysics modeling have been used and enhanced since decades for climate studies of the Earth. Most of the tools are based on Log-Normal law which are suitable for Earth, Mars or Venus. On Titan, due to the fractal structure of the aerosols, the size distributions do not follow a log-normal law. Then using a moment scheme in that case implies to define the description of the size distribution and to review the equations that are widely published in the literature. Our objective is to enable the use of a fully described microphysical model using a moment scheme within a Titan’s Global Climate Model. As a first step in this direction, we present here a moment scheme dedicated to clouds microphysics adapted for Titan’s atmosphere conditions. We perform comparisons between the two kinds of schemes (bin and moments) using an annual and a diurnal cycle, to check the validity of our moment description. The various forcing produce a time-variable cloud layer in relation with the temperature cycle. We compare the column opacities and the temperature for the two schemes, for each cycles. We also compare more detailed quantities as the opacity distribution of the cloud events at different periods of these cycles. Results show that differences between the two approaches have a small impact on the temperature (less than 1 K) and range between 1% and 10% for haze and clouds opacities. Both models behave in similar way when forced by an annual

  16. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  17. Annual report, October 1980-September 1981 Multimedia radionuclide exposure assessment modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Onishi, Y.; Simmons, C.S.; Horst, T.W.; Gupta, S.K.; Orgill, M.M.; Newbill, C.A.

    1982-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are jointly developing a methodology for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to radionuclides as part of an overall development effort of a radionuclide disposal site evaluation methodology. Work in FY-1981 continued the development of the Multimedia Contaminant Environmental Exposure Assessment (MCEA) methodology and initiated an assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons, New Mexico, using the methodology. The AIRTRAN model was completed, briefly tested, and documented. In addition, a literature search for existing validation data for AIRTRAN was performed. The feasibility and advisability of including the UNSAT moisture flow model as a submodel of the terrestrial code BIOTRAN was assessed. A preliminary application of the proposed MCEA methodology, as it related to the Mortandad-South Mortandad Canyon site in New Mexico is discussed. This preliminary application represented a scaled-down version of the methodology in which only the terrestrial, overland, and surface water components were used. An update describing the progress in the assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons is presented. 38 references, 47 figures, 11 tables.

  18. Modelling Growth and Partitioning of Annual Above-Ground Vegetative and Reproductive Biomass of Grapevine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meggio, Franco; Vendrame, Nadia; Maniero, Giovanni; Pitacco, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    In the current climate change scenarios, both agriculture and forestry inherently may act as carbon sinks and consequently can play a key role in limiting global warming. An urgent need exists to understand which land uses and land resource types have the greatest potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global change. A common believe is that agricultural fields cannot be net carbon sinks due to many technical inputs and repeated disturbances of upper soil layers that all contribute to a substantial loss both of the old and newly-synthesized organic matter. Perennial tree crops (vineyards and orchards), however, can behave differently: they grow a permanent woody structure, stand undisturbed in the same field for decades, originate a woody pruning debris, and are often grass-covered. In this context, reliable methods for quantifying and modelling emissions and carbon sequestration are required. Carbon stock changes are calculated by multiplying the difference in oven dry weight of biomass increments and losses with the appropriate carbon fraction. These data are relatively scant, and more information is needed on vineyard management practices and how they impact vineyard C sequestration and GHG emissions in order to generate an accurate vineyard GHG footprint. During the last decades, research efforts have been made for estimating the vineyard carbon budget and its allocation pattern since it is crucial to better understand how grapevines control the distribution of acquired resources in response to variation in environmental growth conditions and agronomic practices. The objective of the present study was to model and compare the dynamics of current year's above-ground biomass among four grapevine varieties. Trials were carried out over three growing seasons in field conditions. The non-linear extra-sums-of-squares method demonstrated to be a feasible way of growth models comparison to statistically assess significant differences among

  19. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  20. Annual carbon dioxide cycle in a montane soil: observations, modeling, and implications for weathering

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, D.K.; Cerling, T.E.

    1987-12-01

    Profiles of CO/sub 2/ concentrations in soil and snow, soil respiration, soil and snow temperatures, and shallow ground water chemistry were monitored from March 1984 to July 1985 in a montane region neat Brighton, Utah. Significant seasonal variations in the concentrations of CO/sub 2/ in soil and snow occurred, and two principal rise-decline cycles were observed. During the first cycle the concentration of soil CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm rose from 4200 ppmv in July to a maximum of 12,400 ppmv in August and then declined to 4300 ppmv by October. This cycle is attributed to the changing production rate of soil CO/sub 2/ during the growing season. During the second cycle the concentration of CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm began to rise in November, reached a maximum of 7200 ppmv in early spring, and quickly declined to 3200 ppmv by late spring shortly after the snow cover had melted. This cycle is attributed to deterioration in the exchange of CO/sub 2/ between the soil and atmosphere due to a deep snowpack. A model based on Fick's second law of diffusion was developed to account for the temporal and spatial distribution of soil CO/sub 2/. The model predicts that soil CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm is increased by as much as 15 times due to the deep snowpack. The elevated concentration of soil CO/sub 2/, abundance of water, and above-freezing soil temperatures imply that significant soil weathering occurs during the winter in montane regions.

  1. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  2. High-temperature pyrolysis mechanisms of coal model compounds. 1990 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Penn, J.H.; Owens, W.H.

    1991-01-01

    The degradation of the carboxylic acid group has been examined with respect to potential pretreatment strategies for fossil fuel conversion processes. In one potential pretreatment strategy involving cation exchange of the carboxylic acid group, a series of benzoic acid and stearic acid salts have been chosen to model the ``tight`` carboxylic acids of immature fossil fuel feedstocks and have been pyrolyzed with an entrained flow reactor. Our preliminary results indicate that Group I and II salts yield primarily the parent acid. Benzoate salts also yield small amounts of benzene while the stearic acid salts give no other detectable products. In two alternative treatment strategies, esterification and anhydride preparation have also been accomplished with these compounds being subjected to the entrained flow reactor conditions. The benzoate esters give a number of products, such as benzaldehyde, benzene, and low MW gases. The formation of these compounds is extremely dependent on pyrolysis conditions and alkoxy chain length. A xenon flashlamp and an entrained flow reactor have been used to heat organic substrates to varying temperatures using different heating rates. Ultrarapid flashlamp pyrolysis (heating rate>10{sup 50}C/s) has been performed. Since the ultrarapid pyrolysis products differ from those observed with traditional heating techniques and differ from the products formed photochemically, the flashlamp pyrolysis products are attributed to high temperature thermal activation.

  3. Using flowering and heat-loss models for improving greenhouse energy-use efficiency in annual bedding plant production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In temperate climates, annual bedding plants are typically produced in heated greenhouses from late winter through early summer. Temperature, photoperiod, light intensity, and transplant date are commonly manipulated during commercial production so that plants are in flower for predetermined market ...

  4. Annual Crop Type Classification of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 - 2011: An Application of Classification Tree Modeling using Remote Sensing and Ancillary Environmental Data (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, D. M.; Wylie, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to increase spatial and temporal availability of crop classification data using reliable source data that have the potential of being applied on local, regional, national, and global levels. This study implemented classification tree modeling to map annual crop types throughout the U.S. Great Plains from 2000 - 2011. Classification tree modeling has been shown in numerous studies to be an effective tool for developing classification models. In this study, nearly 18 million crop observation points, derived from annual U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layers (CDLs), were used in the training, development, and validation of a classification tree crop type model (CTM). Each observation point was further defined by weekly Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) readings, annual climatic conditions, soil conditions, and a number of other biogeophysical environmental characteristics. The CTM accounted for the most prevalent crop types in the area, including, corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, cotton, sorghum, and alfalfa. Other crops that did not fit into any of these classes were identified and grouped into a miscellaneous class. An 87% success rate was achieved on the classification of 1.8 million observation points (10% of total observation points) that were withheld from training. The CTM was applied to create annual crop maps of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 - 2011 at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. Product validation was performed by comparing county acreage derived from the modeled crop maps and county acreage data from the USDA NASS Survey Program for each crop type and each year. Greater than 15,000 county records from 2001 - 2010 were compared with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of r = 0.87.

  5. The dynamic of annual carbon allocation to wood in European forests is consistent with a combined source-sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrêne, E.; François, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Delpierre, N.

    2015-02-01

    The extent to which forest growth is limited by carbon (C) supply (source control) or by cambial activity (sink control) will condition the response of trees to global changes. However, the physiological processes responsible for the limitation of forest growth are still under debate. The aim of this study is to evaluate the key drivers of the annual carbon allocation to wood along large soil and climate regional gradients in five tree species representative of the main European forest biomes (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus ilex, Quercus robur and Picea abies). Combining field measurements and process-based simulations at 49 sites (931 site-years), we assessed the stand biomass growth dependences at both inter-site and inter-annual scales. Specifically, the relative influence of forest C balance (source control), direct environmental control (water and temperature controls of sink activity) and allocation adjustments related to age, past climate conditions, competition intensity and soil nutrient availability on growth were quantified. The inter-site variability in stand C allocation to wood was predominantly driven by an age-related decline. The direct control of temperature or water stress on sink activity (i.e. independently from their effects on C supply) exerted a strong influence on the annual stand woody growth in all the species considered, including deciduous temperate species. The lagged effect of the past environment conditions was a significant driver of the annual C allocation to wood. Carbon supply appeared to strongly limit growth only in deciduous temperate species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of annual carbon allocation to wood in European forests. Our study supports the premise that European forest growth is under a complex control including both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the different growth drivers strongly vary across years and spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a

  6. Influences of Seaway and CO2 Changes during the Pliocene on Tropical Pacific Sector Climate in the Kiel Climate Model: Mean Sate, Annual Cycle, ENSO, and their Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-04-01

    The opening and closing of seaways can have a profound impact on global and regional climate. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. We investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific mean climate, annual cycle and ENSO. The Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15% - 20%. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages marginally enhances ENSO strength by about 6%. ENSO period changes are modest in all experiments. Annual cycle changes are prominent. The annual cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific intensifies by about 50% in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. Bjerknes stability index (BSI) analysis suggests that the growth rate of the ENSO mode does not significantly change due to compensating changes in ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, especially dynamical damping and thermocline feedback. A robust inverse relationship is found between ENSO strength and the strength of the annual cycle.

  7. Assessing the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and flood events using an integrated hydrological modeling system for Qinhuai River basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Jinkang; Qian, Li; Rui, Hanyi; Zuo, Tianhui; Zheng, Dapeng; Xu, Youpeng; Xu, C.-Y.

    2012-09-01

    SummaryThis study developed and used an integrated modeling system, coupling a distributed hydrologic and a dynamic land-use change model, to examine effects of urbanization on annual runoff and flood events of the Qinhuai River watershed in Jiangsu Province, China. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was used to calculate runoff generation and the integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata model (CA-Markov model) was used to develop future land use maps. The model was calibrated and validated using observed daily streamflow data collected at the two outlets of watershed. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988, 1994, 2006, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images from 2001, 2003 and a China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) image from 2009 were used to obtain historical land use maps. These imageries revealed that the watershed experienced conversion of approximately 17% non-urban area to urban area between 1988 and 2009. The urbanization scenarios for various years were developed by overlaying impervious surfaces of different land use maps to 1988 (as a reference year) map sequentially. The simulation results of HEC-HMS model for the various urbanization scenarios indicate that annual runoff, daily peak flow, and flood volume have increased to different degrees due to urban expansion during the study period (1988-2009), and will continue to increase as urban areas increase in the future. When impervious ratios change from 3% (1988) to 31% (2018), the mean annual runoff would increase slightly and the annual runoff in the dry year would increase more than that in the wet year. The daily peak discharge of eight selected floods would increase from 2.3% to 13.9%. The change trend of flood volumes is similar with that of peak discharge, but with larger percentage changes than that of daily peak flows in all scenarios. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the potential changes in peak discharge and flood volume with

  8. Land use regression models to estimate the annual and seasonal spatial variability of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter in Tehran, Iran.

    PubMed

    Amini, Hassan; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B; Naddafi, Kazem; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Yunesian, Masud

    2014-08-01

    The Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran has poor air quality compared with cities of similar size in Europe and North America. Spatial annual and seasonal patterns of SO2 and PM10 concentrations were estimated using land use regression (LUR) methods applied to data from 21 air quality monitoring stations. A systematic algorithm for LUR model building was developed to select variables based on (1) consistency with a priori assumptions about the assumed directions of the effects, (2) a p-value of <0.1 for each predictor, (3) improvements to the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) R(2), (4) a multicollinearity index called the variance inflation factor, and (5) a grouped (leave-25%-out) cross-validation (GCV) for final model. In addition, several new predictive variables and variable types were explored. The annual mean concentrations of SO2 and PM10 across the stations were 38 ppb and 100.8 μg/m(3), respectively. The R(2) values ranged from 0.69 to 0.84 for SO2 models and from 0.62 to 0.67 for PM10 models. The LOOCV and GCV R(2) values ranged, respectively, from 0.40 to 0.56 and 0.40 to 0.50 for the SO2 models; they were 0.48 to 0.57 and 0.50 to 0.55, respectively, for the PM10 models. There were clear differences between the SO2 and PM10 models, but the warmer and cooler season models were consistent with the annual models for both pollutants. Although there was limited similarity between the SO2 and PM10 predictive variables, measures of street density and proximity to airport or air cargo facilities were consistent across both pollutants. In 2010, the entire population of Tehran lived in areas where the World Health Organization guidelines for 24-hour mean SO2 (7 ppb) and annual average PM10 (20 μg/m(3)) were exceeded. PMID:24836390

  9. Modeling the effects of N deposition, precipitation variability, and soil texture on winter annual production and fire risk in Southern California deserts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, L. E.; Allen, E. B.; Meixner, T.

    2008-12-01

    Fire risk in deserts is increased by high production of annual grasses and forbs that create a continuous fine fuel bed in the interspaces between shrubs. Interspace production is influenced by many factors including water and N availability and soil texture, and so the DayCent model was used to investigate how production of herbaceous annuals change along gradients of these production-forcing factors. DayCent was calibrated on the interspace vegetation from a creosote bush scrub site in Joshua Tree National Park and validated on a second creosote site within the Park with different soils and climate. The DayCent model was well calibrated on the first site, but validation on the second site showed that the model is sensitive to soil clay content such that soils with low clay contents lose soil C and N during model equilibration. Despite discrepancies between modeled and observed soil C and N pools, relative response of production to N fertilization was well represented by the model. Thus, DayCent can be used to determine conservative estimates of fire risk in the desert under increased precipitation and N deposition. Fire risk simulations indicate that interspace vegetation is strongly limited by water availability when mean annual precipitation is less than 21 cm yr-1. Under simulated N deposition of 8 kg-N ha-1, approximating the most polluted regions in these deserts, fire risk increases to 62-76% under a range of soil textures indicating that under increased N deposition fire risk is high in years of average to above-average rainfall.

  10. The dynamic of the annual carbon allocation to wood in European tree species is consistent with a combined source-sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrene, E.; Francois, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Delpierre, N.

    2015-05-01

    appeared to strongly limit growth only in temperate deciduous species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the annual C allocation to wood in French forests. Our study supports the premise that the growth of European tree species is subject to complex control processes that include both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the growth drivers strongly vary with time and across spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a straightforward modelling framework with which to implement these combined forest growth limitations into terrestrial biosphere models.

  11. Current and future carbon export by the Connecticut River: using streamflow data archives and rating curves to model annual and seasonal constituent loads under future discharge scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petsch, S.; Armfield, J. R.

    2013-12-01

    a result, DOC, POC and TSS export are heavily skewed towards spring discharge events, and effective discharge for these constituents is most likely to occur in spring. A Monte Carlo simulation of annual and seasonal discharge was developed from a probability distribution of the log-transformed mean and standard deviation of the daily discharge archive. This model was used to generate estimates of annual and seasonal export of TSS, POC and DOC, C/N ratios and weight % OC. Future changes in discharge were simulated in the model to examine effects on constituent loads. For example, shifts to more winter and less spring discharge to mimic less snowpack and spring freshet results in substantially greater TSS and POC export. Increased summer and fall discharge to mimic increases in tropical storms yields only modest increases in constituent export, due to the overall low discharge values during these seasons. These results highlight the importance of long-term streamflow and constituent datasets in determining current annual and seasonal carbon export from river systems, and for generating predictions of changes in carbon export the result from future hydrological and climatic change.

  12. Review of "The Twelfth West Coast Retrovirus Meeting" and "The Twenty-third Annual Symposium on Nonhuman Primate Models for AIDS"

    PubMed Central

    Cairns, J Scott

    2006-01-01

    Two recent meetings held on the west coast of the USA highlighted current work being done in the field of retrovirology and AIDS. The meetings, "The Twelfth West Coast Retrovirus Meeting" (Palm Springs CA; October 6–8, 2005), and the "Twenty-third Annual Symposium on Nonhuman Primate Models for AIDS" (Portland OR; September 21–24) covered a broad range of topics. The highlights covered here are not meant to be inclusive but reflect presentations of interest in the identification and development of new HIV therapies and the role played by animal models in their development. PMID:16405737

  13. Inter-annual snow accumulation and melt patterns in a sub-alpine mixed conifer forest: results from a distributed physically based snow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.; Kirchner, P. B.; Bales, R. C.

    2011-12-01

    Seasonally snow covered mid-latitude forests may be highly sensitive to climate change as they often overlap or reside near the present-day synoptic mean rain-snow transition zone. Limited capabilities of satellite remote sensing in forested, steep terrain combined with sparse in-situ observations emphasize the need for improved numerical simulations of the distribution of snow water equivalent in these regions. The land surface / snowmelt model Alpine3D was used to simulate snow accumulation and melt in the 7.22 km2 sub-alpine Wolverton basin in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. The basin is part of the Southern Sierra Nevada Critical Zone Observatory. Results from three snow seasons were evaluated against data from a distributed network of automated snow depth sensors, repeated catchment-wide snow survey measurements conducted in 2008 and 2009, and LiDAR data from 2010. Compared to the local 86-year historical record, the three years of observation accumulated average (2008), 48% below average (2009) and 43% above average (2010) maximum annual SWE. A mid-winter rain-on-snow event occurred in both 2008 and 2009. The inter-annual variability in maximum SWE combined with inter-annual differences in the timing and type of precipitation events, the timing of seasonal melt onset, and differences in the persistence of spring cloud cover caused significant inter-annual variability in areal snow cover depletion rates. In 2009, the year with the least precipitation, the most spring cloud cover, and a basin-wide late-January rain event, SWE patterns exhibited the least spatial variability and areal snow cover depletion was rapid. Conversely, the greatest spatial variability in SWE was simulated in 2010, the year with the most precipitation, no rain events, and a melt season that extended into early summer. The areal snow cover depletion curve for this year exhibited a rapid exponential phase as in 2009, but a distinctly different transitional phase as deep snow cover

  14. Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, Rashid; Babel, Mukand S.

    2013-07-01

    The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R 2 values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R 2 values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91-3.15 °C, 0.93-2.63 °C, and 6-12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69-1.92 °C, 0.56-1.63 °C, and 8-14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied.

  15. Building a field- and model-based climatology of local water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel - annual budgets and seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Issoufou, H. B.-A.; Boulain, N.; Ramier, D.; Mainassara, I.; Charvet, G.; Boucher, M.; Chazarin, J.-P.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Maidaji, B.; Arpin-Pont, F.; Benarrosh, N.; Mahamane, A.; Nazoumou, Y.; Favreau, G.; Seghieri, J.

    2014-05-01

    In the African Sahel, energy and water cycling at the land surface is pivotal for regional climate, water resources and land productivity, yet it is still extremely poorly documented. As a step towards a comprehensive climatological description of surface fluxes in this area, this study provides estimates of average annual budgets and seasonal cycles for two main land use types of the cultivated Sahelian belt, rainfed millet crop and fallow bush. These estimates build on the combination of a 7 year field dataset from two typical plots in southwestern Niger with detailed physically-based soil-plant-atmosphere modelling, yielding a continuous, comprehensive set of water and energy flux and storage variables over the 7 year period. In this study case in particular, blending field data with mechanistic modelling is considered as making best use of available data and knowledge for such purpose. It extends observations by reconstructing missing data and extrapolating to unobserved variables or periods. Furthermore, model constraining with observations compromises between extraction of observational information content and integration of process understanding, hence accounting for data imprecision and departure from physical laws. Climatological averages of all water and energy variables, with associated sampling uncertainty, are derived at annual to subseasonal scales from the 7 year series produced. Similarities and differences in the two ecosystems behaviors are highlighted. Mean annual evapotranspiration is found to represent ~82-85% of rainfall for both systems, but with different soil evaporation/plant transpiration partitioning and different seasonal distribution. The remainder consists entirely of runoff for the fallow, whereas drainage and runoff stand in a 40-60% proportion for the millet field. These results should provide a robust reference for the surface energy- and water-related studies needed in this region. The model developed in this context has the

  16. Using Ecosystem Functional Types in land-surface modeling to characterize and monitor the spatial and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alcaraz-Segura, D.; Paruelo, J.; Epstein, H. E.; Berbery, E. H.; Kalnay, E.; Cabello, J.; Jobbagy, E. G.

    2009-12-01

    Including the inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics into land-surface models is necessary to account for land use/cover change effects on Global Climate Models. However, land-surface models use land-cover classifications dictated by structural attributes of vegetation that have little sensitivity to environmental change and are difficult to update and result in a delayed response. This rigid representation of vegetation reduces the ability of models to represent rapid changes including land-use shifts, fires, floods, droughts, and insect outbreaks. Functional attributes of vegetation describing its energy and matter exchange with the atmosphere, have a shorter response to environmental changes and are relatively easy to monitor with satellite data. We applied the concept of Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs; patches of the land-surface with similar carbon gain dynamics) to characterize the spatial and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across natural and agricultural systems in the La Plata Basin of South America. Three descriptors of carbon gain dynamics were derived from seasonal curves of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and used to identify EFTs based on annual mean (surrogate of primary production), seasonal coefficient of variation (indicator of seasonality), and date of maximum NDVI (descriptor of phenology). Results from two NDVI datasets were compared (AVHRR-LTDR version 2, 1982-1999, 15-day and 5 km resolution; and MOD13A2 MODIS, 2000-2006, 16-day and 1 km resolution). Both datasets showed greater spatial and inter-annual variability of the EFT composition in agricultural areas compared to natural areas. During 1982-1999, the percentage of the La Plata Basin occupied by EFTs with low productivity, high seasonality, and spring and fall NDVI maxima tended to decrease, while EFTs with high productivity, low seasonality, and summer maxima tended to increase. We speculate that these trends may be due to a positive trend in

  17. Building a field- and model-based climatology of local water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel - annual budgets and seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Issoufou, H. B.-A.; Boulain, N.; Ramier, D.; Mainassara, I.; Charvet, G.; Boucher, M.; Chazarin, J.-P.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Maidaji, B.; Arpin-Pont, F.; Benarrosh, N.; Mahamane, A.; Nazoumou, Y.; Favreau, G.; Seghieri, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the sub-Saharan Sahel, energy and water cycling at the land surface is pivotal for the regional climate, water resources and land productivity, yet it is still very poorly documented. As a step towards a comprehensive climatological description of surface fluxes in this area, this study provides estimates of long-term average annual budgets and seasonal cycles for two main land use types of the cultivated Sahelian belt: rainfed millet crop and fallow bush. These estimates build on the combination of a 7-year field data set from two typical plots in southwestern Niger with detailed physically based soil-plant-atmosphere modeling, yielding a continuous, comprehensive set of water and energy flux and storage variables over this multiyear period. In the present case in particular, blending field data with mechanistic modeling makes the best use of available data and knowledge for the construction of the multivariate time series. Rather than using the model only to gap-fill observations into a composite series, model-data integration is generalized homogeneously over time by generating the whole series with the entire data-constrained model simulation. Climatological averages of all water and energy variables, with associated sampling uncertainty, are derived at annual to sub-seasonal scales from the time series produced. Similarities and differences in the two ecosystem behaviors are highlighted. Mean annual evapotranspiration is found to represent ~82-85% of rainfall for both systems, but with different soil evaporation/plant transpiration partitioning and different seasonal distribution. The remainder consists entirely of runoff for the fallow, whereas drainage and runoff stand in a 40-60% proportion for the millet field. These results should provide a robust reference for the surface energy- and water-related studies needed in this region. Their significance and the benefits they gain from the innovative data-model integration approach are thoroughly discussed

  18. Annual costs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Finland during 1996–2006 and a prediction model for 2007–2030

    PubMed Central

    Herse, Fredrik; Kiljander, Toni; Lehtimäki, Lauri

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major burden for the health care system, but the exact costs are difficult to estimate and there are insufficient data available on past and future time trends of COPD-related costs. Aims: The aim of the study was to calculate COPD-related costs in Finland during the years 1996–2006 and estimate future costs for the years 2007–2030. Methods: COPD-related direct and indirect costs in the public health care sector of the whole of Finland during the years 1996–2006 were retrieved from national registers. In addition, we made a mathematical prediction model on COPD costs for the years 2007–2030 on the basis of population projection and changes in smoking habits. Results: The total annual COPD-related costs amounted to about 100–110 million Euros in 1996–2006, with no obvious change, but there was a slight decrease in direct costs and an increase in indirect costs during these years. The estimation model predicted a 60% increase up to 166 million Euros in COPD-related annual costs by the year 2030. This is caused almost entirely by an increase in direct health care costs that reflect the predicted ageing of the Finnish population, as older age is a significant factor that increases the need for hospitalisation. Conclusions: The total annual COPD-related costs in Finland have been stable during the years 1996–2006, but if management strategies are not changed a significant increase in direct costs is expected by the year 2030 due to ageing of the population. PMID:25811648

  19. A dynamical-statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xun; Yang, Song; Wang, Hui; Jia, Xiaolong; Kumar, Arun

    2013-11-01

    A dynamical-statistical forecast model for the annual tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific is developed based on the empirical relationship between the actual annual number of tropical cyclones (ANTCs) and the dynamical predictions of large-scale variables by the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). On interannual time scales, the ANTCs are significantly and negatively correlated with the July-October tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature, tropical western Pacific vertical zonal wind shear (WPVZWS), and subtropical Pacific geopotential height at 500 hPa (HGT500). They are also positively correlated with the zonal wind at 850 hPa over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Skillful forecasts of the above four potential predictors are made with the 24-member ensemble predictions by the NCEP model. The two-predictor model with the HGT500 and the WPVZWS shows the most skillful hindcasts at 0-2 month leads assessed by the leave-one-out cross validation for the ANTCs over the 31 year record between 1982 and 2012. The corresponding correlation coefficients and the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) between the observed and hindcast ANTCs are in the ranges from 0.73 to 0.79 and from 3.11 to 2.75, respectively. Observed ANTCs during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events are generally well captured with RMSEs ranging from 3.12 to 3.04 during El Niño years and from 3.62 to 2.44 during La Niña years. The forecast skill of the model for the past 10 years (2003-2012) is competitive with the current forecast schemes. The forecast model initialized in March, May, and June 2013 suggests an inactive season for 2013, with about 22 tropical cyclones.

  20. Annual Rates on Seismogenic Italian Sources with Models of Long-Term Predictability for the Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment In Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Console, Rodolfo

    2016-04-01

    The present study is carried out in the framework of the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) INGV, under the agreement signed in 2015 with the Department of Civil Protection for developing a new model of seismic hazard of the country that can update the current reference (MPS04-S1; zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it and esse1.mi.ingv.it) released between 2004 and 2006. In this initiative, we participate with the Long-Term Stress Transfer (LTST) Model to provide the annual occurrence rate of a seismic event on the entire Italian territory, from a Mw4.5 minimum magnitude, considering bins of 0.1 magnitude units on geographical cells of 0.1° x 0.1°. Our methodology is based on the fusion of a statistical time-dependent renewal model (Brownian Passage Time, BPT, Matthews at al., 2002) with a physical model which considers the permanent effect in terms of stress that undergoes a seismogenic source in result of the earthquakes that occur on surrounding sources. For each considered catalog (historical, instrumental and individual seismogenic sources) we determined a distinct rate value for each cell of 0.1° x 0.1° for the next 50 yrs. If the cell falls within one of the sources in question, we adopted the respective value of rate, which is referred only to the magnitude of the event characteristic. This value of rate is divided by the number of grid cells that fall on the horizontal projection of the source. If instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the average value of the rate obtained from the historical and the instrumental catalog, using the method of Frankel (1995). The annual occurrence rate was computed for any of the three considered distributions (Poisson, BPT and BPT with inclusion of stress transfer).

  1. Annual research briefs, 1989

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    This report contains the 1989 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows of the Center for Turbulence Research. It is intended as a year end report to NASA, Ames Research Center which supports this group through core funding and by making available physical and intellectual resources. The Center for Turbulence Research is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flows; its objectives are to simulate advances in the physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control. The reports appearing in the following pages are grouped in the general areas of modeling, experimental research, theory, simulation and numerical methods, and compressible and reacting flows.

  2. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing

  3. Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

    SciTech Connect

    Khangaonkar, Tarang; Sackmann, Brandon; Long, Wen; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Roberts, Mindy

    2012-08-14

    Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5–20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. Finally, by late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific

  4. Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khangaonkar, Tarang; Sackmann, Brandon; Long, Wen; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Roberts, Mindy

    2012-09-01

    Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5-20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. By late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific Ocean.

  5. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to approximate within-GCM uncertainty of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and assess its impact on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. To-date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2014) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), temperature (MAT) and runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP) and runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 world-wide catchments. Based on 100

  6. Bring in the genes: genetic-ecophysiological modeling of the adaptive response of trees to environmental change. With application to the annual cycle

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Koen; van der Werf, Bert; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan

    2015-01-01

    The observation of strong latitudinal clines in the date of bud burst of tree species indicate that populations of these species are genetically adapted to local environmental conditions. Existing phenological models rarely address this clinal variation, so that adaptive responses of tree populations to changes in environmental conditions are not taken into account, e.g., in models on species distributions that use phenological sub-models. This omission of simulating adaptive response in tree models may over- or underestimate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions, as well as the impacts of climate change on tree growth and productivity. Here, we present an approach to model the adaptive response of traits to environmental change based on an integrated process-based eco-physiological and quantitative genetic model of adaptive traits. Thus, the parameter values of phenological traits are expressed in genetic terms (allele effects and—frequencies, number of loci) for individual trees. These individual trees thereby differ in their ability to acquire resources, grow and reproduce as described by the process-based model, leading to differential survival. Differential survival is thus the consequence of both differences in parameters values and their genetic composition. By simulating recombination and dispersal of pollen, the genetic composition of the offspring will differ from that of their parents. Over time, the distribution of both trait values and the frequency of the underlying alleles in the population change as a consequence of changes in environmental drivers leading to adaptation of trees to local environmental conditions. This approach is applied to an individual-tree growth model that includes a phenological model on the annual cycle of trees whose parameters are allowed to adapt. An example of the adaptive response of the onset of the growing season across Europe is presented. PMID:25628628

  7. Modeling effects of inter-annual variability in meteorological and land use conditions on coupled water and energy cycling in the cultivated African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Boulain, N.; Favreau, G.; Charvet, G.; Ramier, D.; Issoufou, H.; Boucher, M.; Mainassara, I.; Chazarin, J.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Benarrosh, N.; Ibrahim, M.

    2012-12-01

    In the dry tropics in general and in the African Sahel in particular, hydro-ecosystems are very sensitive to climate variability and land management. In the Niamey region of South-West Niger, a severe multi-decadal drought together with large-scale vegetation clearing coincided with an unexpected increase in surface and ground water resources. Such an apparent paradoxical situation illustrates the complex way in which climate and land cover interactions control the Sahelian water cycle dynamics. This stresses the importance of understanding and reliably modeling water/energy transfers in the local soil-plant-atmosphere system, under contrasted meteorological and surface conditions. This study investigates the effects of the inter-annual variability of meteorological and land use conditions on the coupled water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel over a 5-year period. This is based on a comprehensive multi-year field dataset acquired for a millet crop field and a fallow savannah, the two main land cover types of South-West Niger (Wankama catchment in the mesoscale AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory, part of the French-initiated RBV network). It includes atmospheric forcing, seasonal course of vegetation phenology, soil properties and model validation variables (net radiation, turbulent fluxes, soil heat/water profiles), for the two fields. The study area is typical of Central Sahel conditions, with 400-600 mm annual rainfall concentrated in the 4-5 month wet season. Soils are mainly sandy and prone to surface crusting, leading to a strong vertical contrast in hydrodynamic properties. The SiSPAT process-based model used solves the 1D mass and heat transfer system of equations in the soil, including vapor phase and coupled with a two-component (bare soil and vegetation) water and energy budget at the surface-atmosphere interface. The study explores whether such a model can be accurately calibrated and validated for the two sites using realistic-parameter values. The

  8. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  9. Modeling the Magnetic and Thermal Structure of Active Regions: 1st Year 1st Semi-Annual Progress Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mikic, Zoran

    2003-01-01

    This report covers technical progress during the first six months of the first year of NASA SR&T contract "Modeling the Magnetic and Thermal Structure of Active Regions", NASW-03008, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period January 14, 2003 to July 13, 2003. Under this contract SAIC has conducted research into theoretical modeling of the properties of active regions using the MHD model.

  10. Modeling and Verification of Distributed Generation and Voltage Regulation Equipment for Unbalanced Distribution Power Systems; Annual Subcontract Report, June 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, M. W.; Broadwater, R.; Hambrick, J.

    2007-07-01

    This report summarizes the development of models for distributed generation and distribution circuit voltage regulation equipment for unbalanced power systems and their verification through actual field measurements.

  11. A Model Simulating the Impact of Reagan's Student Financial Aid Proposals on the Institution. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, John D.; Matt, Joseph J.

    A model was developed at Arizona State University (ASU) to simulate the effect of President Reagan's proposed 1983 cuts in student financial aid in terms of programs and student credit hour load. The model allows administrators to simulate the impact on various student groups. The analysis involved 3,141 full-time undergraduates with financial aid…

  12. Annual Research Briefs, 1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The 1990 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulent Research (CTR) are included. It is intended primarily as a contractor report to NASA, Ames Research Center. In addition, numerous CTR Manuscript Reports were published last year. The purpose of the CTR Manuscript Series is to expedite the dissemination of research results by the CTR staff. The CTR is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flow; its objectives are to produce advances in physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control.

  13. Using Novel Approaches in Process-Based Modeling for Interpreting Inter-Annual Variability in Tree Ring Widths, Wood Density Profiles, and Cellulose Isotopic Ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friend, A. D.; Babst, F.; Belmecheri, S.; Frank, D. C.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hayat, A.; Poulter, B.; Rademacher, T. T.; Trouet, V.

    2015-12-01

    Time series annual of tree ring width, density variation, and oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions have the potential to substantially increase our knowledge of forest responses to environmental variation. However, their interpretation is not straightforward due to the simultaneous influences of a number of confounding factors, including carry-over effects from previous years, variable resource allocation with size, age, and canopy position, species-specific physiologies, and complex interactions between forcings such as temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CO2. Here we attempt to tease these factors apart and so substantially improve the interpretability of tree ring archives through the construction and application of novel approaches within a process-based model of individual tree growth. The model incorporates descriptions of xylem cell division, expansion, and secondary wall thickening, apical and lateral meristem activities with internal controls from internal signals, internal carbon storage, and the dynamics of canopy photosynthesis, stomatal movements, evapotranspiration, canopy temperatures, and soil moisture. Alternative treatments of isotopic fractionation and growth controls are evaluated using measured datasets. We demonstrate how this new model approach can be used to assess the information contained in tree rings concerning the influence of increasing atmospheric CO2 over the past century on growth and water use efficiency at a range of sites.

  14. A multiisotope C and N modeling analysis of soil organic matter turnover and transport as a function of soil depth in a California annual grassland soil chronosequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baisden, W.T.; Amundson, Ronald; Brenner, D.L.; Cook, A.C.; Kendall, C.; Harden, J.W.

    2002-01-01

    We examine soil organic matter (SOM) turnover and transport using C and N isotopes in soil profiles sampled circa 1949, 1978, and 1998 (a period spanning pulse thermonuclear 14C enrichment of the atmosphere) along a 3-million-year annual grassland soil chronosequence. Temporal differences in soil ??14C profiles indicate that inputs of recently living organic matter (OM) occur primarily in the upper 20-30 cm but suggest that OM inputs can occur below the primary rooting zone. A three-pool SOM model with downward transport captures most observed variation in ??14C, percentages of C and N, ??13C, and ??15N, supporting the commonly accepted concept of three distinct SOM pools. The model suggests that the importance of the decadal SOM pool in N dynamics is greatest in young and old soils. Altered hydrology and possibly low pH and/or P dynamics in highly developed old soils cause changes in soil C and N turnover and transport of importance for soil biogeochemistry models.

  15. A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cariolle, D.; Teyssèdre, H.

    2007-01-01

    This article describes the validation of a linear parameterization of the ozone photochemistry for use in upper tropospheric and stratospheric studies. The present work extends a previously developed scheme by improving the 2D model used to derive the coefficients of the parameterization. The chemical reaction rates are updated from a compilation that includes recent laboratory works. Furthermore, the polar ozone destruction due to heterogeneous reactions at the surface of the polar stratospheric clouds is taken into account as a function of the stratospheric temperature and the total chlorine content. Two versions of the parameterization are tested. The first one only requires the resolution of a continuity equation for the time evolution of the ozone mixing ratio, the second one uses one additional equation for a cold tracer. The parameterization has been introduced into the chemical transport model MOCAGE. The model is integrated with wind and temperature fields from the ECMWF operational analyses over the period 2000-2004. Overall, the results show a very good agreement between the modelled ozone distribution and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data and the "in-situ" vertical soundings. During the course of the integration the model does not show any drift and the biases are generally small. The model also reproduces fairly well the polar ozone variability, with notably the formation of "ozone holes" in the southern hemisphere with amplitudes and seasonal evolutions that follow the dynamics and time evolution of the polar vortex. The introduction of the cold tracer further improves the model simulation by allowing additional ozone destruction inside air masses exported from the high to the mid-latitudes, and by maintaining low ozone contents inside the polar vortex of the southern hemisphere over longer periods in spring time. It is concluded that for the study of climatic scenarios or the assimilation of ozone data, the present

  16. Annual Research Briefs, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1993-01-01

    This report contains the 1992 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research. Considerable effort was focused on the large eddy simulation technique for computing turbulent flows. This increased activity has been inspired by the recent predictive successes of the dynamic subgrid scale modeling procedure which was introduced during the 1990 Summer Program. Several Research Fellows and students are presently engaged in both the development of subgrid scale models and their applications to complex flows. The first group of papers in this report contain the findings of these studies. They are followed by reports grouped in the general areas of modeling, turbulence physics, and turbulent reacting flows. The last contribution in this report outlines the progress made on the development of the CTR post-processing facility.

  17. A regionalized national universal kriging model using Partial Least Squares regression for estimating annual PM2.5 concentrations in epidemiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Paul D.; Richards, Mark; Szpiro, Adam A.; Bergen, Silas; Sheppard, Lianne; Larson, Timothy V.; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2013-08-01

    Many cohort studies in environmental epidemiology require accurate modeling and prediction of fine scale spatial variation in ambient air quality across the U.S. This modeling requires the use of small spatial scale geographic or “land use” regression covariates and some degree of spatial smoothing. Furthermore, the details of the prediction of air quality by land use regression and the spatial variation in ambient air quality not explained by this regression should be allowed to vary across the continent due to the large scale heterogeneity in topography, climate, and sources of air pollution. This paper introduces a regionalized national universal kriging model for annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) monitoring data across the U.S. To take full advantage of an extensive database of land use covariates we chose to use the method of Partial Least Squares, rather than variable selection, for the regression component of the model (the “universal” in “universal kriging”) with regression coefficients and residual variogram models allowed to vary across three regions defined as West Coast, Mountain West, and East. We demonstrate a very high level of cross-validated accuracy of prediction with an overall R2 of 0.88 and well-calibrated predictive intervals. In accord with the spatially varying characteristics of PM2.5 on a national scale and differing kriging smoothness parameters, the accuracy of the prediction varies by region with predictive intervals being notably wider in the West Coast and Mountain West in contrast to the East.

  18. A regionalized national universal kriging model using Partial Least Squares regression for estimating annual PM2.5 concentrations in epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    Sampson, Paul D.; Richards, Mark; Szpiro, Adam A.; Bergen, Silas; Sheppard, Lianne; Larson, Timothy V.; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2013-01-01

    Many cohort studies in environmental epidemiology require accurate modeling and prediction of fine scale spatial variation in ambient air quality across the U.S. This modeling requires the use of small spatial scale geographic or “land use” regression covariates and some degree of spatial smoothing. Furthermore, the details of the prediction of air quality by land use regression and the spatial variation in ambient air quality not explained by this regression should be allowed to vary across the continent due to the large scale heterogeneity in topography, climate, and sources of air pollution. This paper introduces a regionalized national universal kriging model for annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) monitoring data across the U.S. To take full advantage of an extensive database of land use covariates we chose to use the method of Partial Least Squares, rather than variable selection, for the regression component of the model (the “universal” in “universal kriging”) with regression coefficients and residual variogram models allowed to vary across three regions defined as West Coast, Mountain West, and East. We demonstrate a very high level of cross-validated accuracy of prediction with an overall R2 of 0.88 and well-calibrated predictive intervals. In accord with the spatially varying characteristics of PM2.5 on a national scale and differing kriging smoothness parameters, the accuracy of the prediction varies by region with predictive intervals being notably wider in the West Coast and Mountain West in contrast to the East. PMID:24015108

  19. Development of Improved Models and Designs for Coated-Particle Gas Reactor Fuels (I-NERI Annual Report)

    SciTech Connect

    Petti, David Andrew; Maki, John Thomas; Languille, Alain; Martin, Philippe; Ballinger, Ronald

    2002-11-01

    The objective of this INERI project is to develop improved fuel behavior models for gas reactor coated particle fuels and to develop improved coated-particle fuel designs that can be used reliably at very high burnups and potentially in fast gas-cooled reactors. Thermomechanical, thermophysical, and physiochemical material properties data were compiled by both the US and the French and preliminary assessments conducted. Comparison between U.S. and European data revealed many similarities and a few important differences. In all cases, the data needed for accurate fuel performance modeling of coated particle fuel at high burnup were lacking. The development of the INEEL fuel performance model, PARFUME, continued from earlier efforts. The statistical model being used to simulate the detailed finite element calculations is being upgraded and improved to allow for changes in fuel design attributes (e.g. thickness of layers, dimensions of kernel) as well as changes in important material properties to increase the flexibility of the code. In addition, modeling of other potentially important failure modes such as debonding and asphericity was started. A paper on the status of the model was presented at the HTR-2002 meeting in Petten, Netherlands in April 2002, and a paper on the statistical method was submitted to the Journal of Nuclear Material in September 2002. Benchmarking of the model against Japanese and an older DRAGON irradiation are planned. Preliminary calculations of the stresses in a coated particle have been calculated by the CEA using the ATLAS finite element model. This model and the material properties and constitutive relationships will be incorporated into a more general software platform termed Pleiades. Pleiades will be able to analyze different fuel forms at different scales (from particle to fuel body) and also handle the statistical variability in coated particle fuel. Diffusion couple experiments to study Ag and Pd transport through SiC were

  20. Experimental prediction of severe droughts on seasonal to intra-annual time scales with GFDL High-Resolution Atmosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Z.; Lin, S.

    2011-12-01

    Regional heat waves and drought have major economic and societal impacts on regional and even global scales. For example, during and following the 2010-2011 La Nina period, severe droughts have been reported in many places around the world including China, the southern US, and the east Africa, causing severe hardship in China and famine in east Africa. In this study, we investigate the feasibility and predictability of severe spring-summer draught events, 3 to 6 months in advance with the 25-km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM), which is built as a seamless weather-climate model, capable of long-term climate simulations as well as skillful seasonal predictions (e.g., Chen and Lin 2011, GRL). We adopted a similar methodology and the same (HiRAM) model as in Chen and Lin (2011), which is used successfully for seasonal hurricane predictions. A series of initialized 7-month forecasts starting from Dec 1 are performed each year (5 members each) during the past decade (2000-2010). We will then evaluate the predictability of the severe drought events during this period by comparing model predictions vs. available observations. To evaluate the predictive skill, in this preliminary report, we will focus on the anomalies of precipitation, sea-level-pressure, and 500-mb height. These anomalies will be computed as the individual model prediction minus the mean climatology obtained by an independent AMIP-type "simulation" using observed SSTs (rather than using predictive SSTs in the forecasts) from the same model.

  1. A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cariolle, D.; Teyssèdre, H.

    2007-05-01

    This article describes the validation of a linear parameterization of the ozone photochemistry for use in upper tropospheric and stratospheric studies. The present work extends a previously developed scheme by improving the 2-D model used to derive the coefficients of the parameterization. The chemical reaction rates are updated from a compilation that includes recent laboratory work. Furthermore, the polar ozone destruction due to heterogeneous reactions at the surface of the polar stratospheric clouds is taken into account as a function of the stratospheric temperature and the total chlorine content. Two versions of the parameterization are tested. The first one only requires the solution of a continuity equation for the time evolution of the ozone mixing ratio, the second one uses one additional equation for a cold tracer. The parameterization has been introduced into the chemical transport model MOCAGE. The model is integrated with wind and temperature fields from the ECMWF operational analyses over the period 2000-2004. Overall, the results from the two versions show a very good agreement between the modelled ozone distribution and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data and the "in-situ" vertical soundings. During the course of the integration the model does not show any drift and the biases are generally small, of the order of 10%. The model also reproduces fairly well the polar ozone variability, notably the formation of "ozone holes" in the Southern Hemisphere with amplitudes and a seasonal evolution that follow the dynamics and time evolution of the polar vortex. The introduction of the cold tracer further improves the model simulation by allowing additional ozone destruction inside air masses exported from the high to the mid-latitudes, and by maintaining low ozone content inside the polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere over longer periods in spring time. It is concluded that for the study of climate scenarios or the assimilation of

  2. Kinetics modeling and interpretation of experimental results for XeF. Annual report, December 1985--November 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Salesky, E.T.

    1986-12-31

    In this report the author presents a detailed discussion of a computer model of the electron beam pumped XeF laser which was developed for Los Alamos National Laboratory during FY86. In its present form, it should provide useful modeling and scaling of XeF laser experiments currently of interest. Additional modifications will be required for long pulse (t{sub P}>5{mu}sec) simulations. The model includes all of the important energy transport processes which contribute to the formation and quenching of XeF in the B-state (upper laser level), X-state (lower laser level), C-state (which mixes with the B-state as a loss mechanism), and the unbound (repulsive) A-state to which the C-state decays. The gain of the B to X transition is resolved for the three most important laser (vibrational) lines: (0-3) at 353 nm, (0-2) and (1-4) at 351 nm. This report describes the kinetics model and computer code for electron beam pumped XeF lasers which use gas mixtures composed of argon (the buffer), xenon, and fluorine. The temperatures, energy flow, and chemistry (plasma and neutral) are calculated in a self-consistent manner; balances of energy, matter, and charge are tracked by the code and output with each print cycle. The model includes the time history of all of the important absorbers: Ar{sub 2}{sup +}, Xe{sub 2}{sup +}, Ar{sup *} and Xe{sup *} (s and p states), F{sub 2}, F{sup {minus}}, and Xe{sub 2}F{sup *}. Energy extraction in the form of lasing is computed using a modified Rigrod analysis which treats multiline lasing. This extraction model assumes a spatially uniform laser flux and is therefore a one dimensional (in time) treatment. The more general extraction model which treats non-uniform spatial effects (laser flux and pumping by a non-uniform electron beam) is being developed, and will be integrated with excimer model in the FY87 reporting period. The computer code was written in FORTRAN77 on a DEC MICROVAX II which uses the VAX/VMS operating system.

  3. Water balance model for mean annual hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions in surface waters of the contiguous US

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The stable H and O isotope composition of river and stream water records information on runoff sources and land/atmosphere water fluxes within the catchment, and is a potentially powerful tool for network-based monitoring of large ecohydrological systems. Process-based hydrological models, however,...

  4. Alternative Model for the Assessment of Organizational Effectiveness for Higher Education Institutions in Developing Countries. ASHE 1988 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Escala, Miguel J.; And Others

    The results of a study developing and testing a socially relevant model for assessing organizational effectiveness in developing countries are presented. Focus is on assessing the Dominican Republic. The objectives of the study were: to select and test theoretically sound effectiveness criteria which account for the type of organization and the…

  5. Idaho Model Watershed Project : Annual Report to the Bonneville Power Administration January 1, 1997 - December 31, 1997.

    SciTech Connect

    Bradbury, Allen; Slavin, Katie

    1998-10-28

    The Model Watershed Project was initiated in the fall of 1992 with a grant from Bonneville Power Administration. The objective of this project is to protect, enhance and restore anadromous and resident fish habitat and achieve and maintain a balance between resource protection and resource use on a holistic watershed basis.

  6. TWIG: a model to simulate the gravitropic response of a tree axis in the frame of elasticity and viscoelasticity, at intra-annual time scale.

    PubMed

    Coutand, Catherine; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Jeronimidis, Georges; Destrebecq, Jean-François

    2011-03-21

    Trees are able to maintain or modify the orientation of their axes (trunks or branches) by tropic movements. For axes in which elongation is achieved but cambial growth active, the tropic movements are due to the production of a particular wood, called reaction wood which is prestressed within the growing tree. Several models have been developed to simulate the gravitropic response of axes in trees due to the formation of reaction wood, all within the frame of linear elasticity and considering the wood maturation as instantaneous. The effect viscoelasticity of wood has, to our knowledge, never been considered. The TWIG model presented in this paper aims at simulating the gravitropic movement of a tree axis at the intra-annual scale. In this work we studied both the effect of a non-instantaneous maturation process and of viscoelasticity. For this purpose, we considered the elastic case with maturation considered as an instantaneous process as the reference. The introduction of viscoelasticity in TWIG has been done by coupling TWIG to a model developed for bridges. Indeed from a purely mechanical point of view, bridges and trees are very similar: they are structures which are built in stages, they are made of several materials (composite structures), their materials are prestressed (wood is prestressed during the maturation process as a result of polymerisation of lignin and cellulose to form the secondary cell wall and concrete is prestressed during drying). Simulations gave evidence that the reorientation process of axes can be significantly influenced by the kinetics of maturation. Moreover the model has now to be tested with more experimental data of wood viscoelasticity but it appears that in the range of a relaxation time from 0 to 50 days, viscoelasticity has an important effect on the evolution of tree shape as well as on the values of prestresses. PMID:21187101

  7. Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

    2010-06-01

    The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

  8. Tucannon Model Watershed 1997 Habitat Projects : Annual Progress Report Project Period: January 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998.

    SciTech Connect

    Bruegman, Terry; Nordheim, Debby

    1998-10-28

    The Tucannon Model Watershed 1997 habitat projects were designed to address critical limiting factors identified through the watershed assessment and Plan development. Construction elements were composed of bioengineering techniques designed to increase salmonid habitat complexity, insure stream bank and geomorphic stability, and reduce stream temperature and sediments in spawning gravels. Cooperation and agreement between landowners and resource agencies for restoring resource conditions has grown due to project success and is expected to continue for the benefit of all.

  9. Models of natural fracture connectivity: Implications for reservoir permeability. Annual report for DOE Basic Energy Sciences, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Pollard, D.D.; Aydin, A.

    1995-06-01

    Fluid flow through fracture networks in a rock mass depends strongly on the nature of connections between fracture segments and between individual fractures. Therefore the objective of this research project is to develop three dimensional models for natural fracture connectivity using an integrated field, laboratory, and theoretical methodology. The geometric models we have developed are based on detailed field mapping and observations from outcrops of both massive and layered sedimentary rocks, typical of producing oil and gas reservoirs, or of aquifers. Furthermore, we have used computer simulations and laboratory experiments to investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for fracture connectivity (or lack thereof) as single and multiple sets of fractures evolve. The computer models are based on fracture mechanics principles and the laboratory experiments utilize layered composite materials analogous to sedimentary sequences. By identifying the physical mechanisms of connectivity we can relate the degree of connectivity to the geometry, state of stress, and material properties of the reservoir rocks and, in turn, be in a position to evaluate the influence of these factors on fracture permeability.

  10. Probing flame chemistry with MBMS, theory, and modeling. Annual progress report, July 15, 1993--July 14, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Westmoreland, P.R.

    1994-04-01

    Propene/oxygen/argon flames have been mapped and modeled at fuel-lean ({phi} = 0.229;30 Torr) conditions and fuel-rich conditions ({phi} = 1.64;35 Torr). Objective is to establish kinetics of combustion and molecular-weight growth in C{sub 3} hydrocarbon flames as part of an ongoing study of flame chemistry. In the past year, we made extensive re-measurements of temperature because previous modeling suggested that the temperature profiles were wrong. The new measurements changed only slightly from the previous measurements. Instead, continued modeling of the lean propane flame and of ethene flames revealed that the problem was inadequacies in the earlier reaction set. Corrections from the literature and from theoretical kinetics resolved nearly all the problems except for allyl, which was overpredicted by {times} 20 to {times} 30. This error is corrected by identifying a new reaction of allyl+O{sub 2} with a rate constant of (3{plus_minus}1) {times} 10{sup 12} at 1000--1700 K, probably forming propenal+OH.

  11. Measurement and modeling of energetic material mass transfer to soil pore water :project CP-1227 FY03 annual technical report.

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, James M.; Barnett, James L.; Kerr, Dayle R.

    2004-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g., weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of experimental work evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water. The experimental work is used as a basis to formulate a mass transfer numerical model, which has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. This report documents the results of the Phase III experimental effort, which evaluated the impacts of surface deposits versus buried deposits, energetic material particle size, and low order detonation debris. Next year, the energetic material mass transfer model will be refined and a 2-d screening model will be developed for initial site-specific applications. A technology development roadmap was created to show how specific R&D efforts are linked to technology and products for key customers.

  12. Annual report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The overall goal of the Tuskegee University Center for Food Production, Processing and Waste Management in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) is to provide tested information and technologies applicable to bioregenerative food production systems for life support on long-term manned space mission. Specifically, the center is developing information, computer simulated models, methodologies and technology for sweetpotato and peanut biomass production and processing, inclusive of waste management and recycling of these crops selected by NASA for CELSS. The Center is organized into interdisciplinary teams of life scientists and engineers that work together on specific objectives and long-term goals. Integral to the goal of the Center is the development of both basic and applied research information and the training of young scientists and engineers, especially underrepresented minorities that will increase the professional pool in these disciplines and contribute to the advancement of space sciences and exploration.

  13. Inter-annual variability of air pollutants over East Asia: an integrated analysis using satellite, lidar and numerical model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yumimoto, K.; Uno, I.; Kuribayashi, M.; Miyazaki, K.; Nishizawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    Air quality in East Asia has a drastic temporal and spatial variability. The rapid economic growth in the last three decades enhanced the increase of anthropogenic emission of air pollutions, and caused deterioration of the air quality in both source and downwind regions. The unprecedented heavy PM­2.5 pollution over the central China in January 2013 records the maximum PM2.5 concentration of 996 μg/m3 and raised critical environmental issues (e.g., mortality, human health, social activity and trans-boundary transport, etc.). Recently, efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions (e.g., emission regulations and improvements of emission factors and removal efficiencies) decelerate their growth rates. In fact, Asian SO2 emission is estimated to be reducing from 2007 [Kurokawa et al., 2013]. However, growth rates other pollutant emissions (e.g., NOx and PM10) still remain in high. To understand the life cycle of pollutants (emission, transport, reaction and deposition) and their temporal and spatial variation, an integrated analysis using observation and numerical model (chemical transport model; CTM) is useful. In this study, we installed a comprehensive observation operator system, which converts model results into observed variables, into the GEOS-Chem CTM. A long-term (2005-2013) full-chemistry simulation over East Asia was performed, and simulation results are translated to tropospheric NO2 and SO2 columns and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient equivalent to satellite measurements and in-situ lidar network observations. Combining CTM and observations, and integrating analyses of aerosols over the downwind region and their precursors over the source region will provide important insights into temporal and spatial variation of air pollutants over East Asia.

  14. Greater deciduous shrub abundance extends the annual period of maximum tundra greenness and increases modeled net CO2 uptake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweet, S. K.; Griffin, K. L.; Steltzer, H.; Gough, L.; Boelman, N.

    2014-12-01

    Satellite studies of the terrestrial Arctic report increased summer greening and longer green seasons over the past several decades, which may increase productivity and lengthen the period of carbon uptake. These trends have been attributed largely to increasing air temperatures and reduced snow cover duration. However, deciduous shrubs are concurrently becoming increasingly abundant in tundra landscapes, which may also impact canopy phenology and productivity. Our aim in this research was to determine the influence of greater deciduous shrub abundance on tundra canopy phenology and subsequent impacts on net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) over the growing season in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range, Alaska (68º38' N, 149º34' W). We compared deciduous shrub-dominated and evergreen/graminoid-dominated community-level canopy phenology using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and piecewise linear regression modeling. We used a tundra plant-community specific leaf area index (LAI) model to estimate LAI throughout the season. We then used a tundra specific NEE model to estimate the impact of greater deciduous shrub abundance and associated shifts in leaf area and canopy phenology on tundra carbon flux. We found that deciduous shrub canopies reached the onset of maximum greenness significantly earlier than evergreen/graminoid canopies, but both communities reached the onset of senescence at similar times, resulting in a net extension of the peak green season in deciduous shrub communities compared to evergreen/graminoid communities. The combined effect of a longer peak green season and greater leaf area of deciduous shrub canopies increased the net carbon uptake in deciduous shrub communities compared to evergreen/graminoid communities. However, the longer peak season alone significantly increased carbon uptake in deciduous shrub communities, suggesting that greater deciduous shrub abundance increases carbon uptake not only due to greater leaf

  15. Synthesis and study of polymer models representative of coal structure. Phase 2. Annual report April 1983-April 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Squire, K.R.; Solomon, P.R.; DiTaranto, M.B.

    1984-05-02

    Seven new polymers were synthesized and an additional one was obtained from an outside source. There are now 10 ethylene bridged, 3 oxymethylene bridged, 1 ether linked, and 2 methylene bridged polymers available for study. A ring size series of benzene, naphthalene, and anthracene based polymers was completed. Polymers substituted with methyls, methoxyls, hydroxyls, and hydroaromatic rings were also made. The polymer characterization data were consistent with these functional groups and have provided insight into several pyrolysis mechanisms. Both oxymethylene and ethylene bridges seem to homolytically cleave during pyrolysis. Tar formation reactions in coals were coincident in temperature with ethylene bridge decompositions but were too high for oxymethylene bridges and too low for methylene bridges. Monomers with large aromatic rings and oxygenated ring substituents seem to destabilize ethylene bridges. This oxygen substituent effect may explain why low rank coals evolve tar at slightly lower temperatures than bituminous coals. Additional evidence has been obtained confirming that availability of donatable hydrogens plays a major role in controlling tar and char yields. Three distinct methane forming reactions were identified: homolytic decomposition of aromatic methoxyl groups, aromatic substitutions of methyl groups by tar molecules, and methane evolutions during char condensations. A Monte Carlo kinetic model was developed for the project's mechanistic studies. This model should greatly aid in efforts to relate the chemical structures of polymers and coals to their pyrolysis reactivities.

  16. Processing and modeling issues for thin-film solar cell devices. Annual subcontract report, January 16, 1994--January 15, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Birkmire, R.W.; Phillips, J.E.; Buchanan, W.A.; Hegedus, S.S.; McCandless, B.E.; Shafarman, W.N.

    1995-06-01

    This report describes results achieved during the second phase of a four year subcontract to develop and understand thin film solar cell technology related to a-Si and its alloys, CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2}, and CdTe. Accomplishments during this phase include, development of equations and reaction rates for the formation of CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} films by selenization, fabrication of a 15% efficient CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} cell, development of a reproducible, reliable Cu-diffused contact to CdTe, investigation of the role of CdTe-CdS interdiffusion on device operation, investigation of the substitution of HCl for CdCl{sub 2} in the post-deposition heat treatment of CdTe/CdS, demonstration of an improved reactor design for deposition of a-Si films, demonstration of improved process control in the fabrication of a ten set series of runs producing {approximately}8% efficient a-Si devices, demonstration of the utility of a simplified optical model for determining quantity and effect of current generation in each layer of a triple stacked a-Si cell, presentation of analytical and modeling procedures adapted to devices produced with each material system, presentation of baseline parameters for devices produced with each material system, and various investigations of the roles played by other layers in thin film devices including the Mo underlayer, CdS and ZnO in CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} devices, the CdS in CdTe devices, and the ZnO as window layer and as part of the back surface reflector in a-Si devices. In addition, collaborations with over ten research groups are briefly described. 73 refs., 54 figs., 34 tabs.

  17. Simulation of Annual Snowfall over Colorado using a High Resolution Mesoscale Model and some Impacts of Climate Change using the Pseudo Climate Simulation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, R.; Grubisic, V.

    2010-09-01

    model simulation skill. Colorado's headwaters region is dominated by high altitude snow melt, so climate assessments in this region using global models are particularly uncertain. However, simple increases in model resolution without clearer understanding and representation of hydroclimatic processes controlling water resources will not be sufficient for improving model performance. It is therefore critical to examine climate impacts in this region using detailed coupled atmosphere-hydrology models in order to more realistically simulate precipitation, sublimation, and runoff processes, as well as their impact on managed water systems. This paper will present results of annual snowfall, snow/rain fraction, and snowpack over Colorado based on high resolution simulations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model running at 2 km horizontal resolution using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Four retrospective years will be shown. Results from four Pseudo Climate simulations (Hara et al. 2008) using the four retrospective runs as the baseline will also be presented. These simulations will be forced by the mean monthly climate signal difference between current (1995 - 2004) and 2045-2055 mean conditions. The NCAR CCSM3 A1B AR4 climate runs with 6 hourly output will be used for the current and future climate model forcings.

  18. Annual variation in habitat-specific recruitment success: Implications from an individual-based model of Lake Michigan alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hook, T.O.; Rutherford, E.S.; Croley, T.E., II; Mason, D.M.; Madenjian, C.P.

    2008-01-01

    The identification of important spawning and nursery habitats for fish stocks can aid fisheries management, but is complicated by various factors, including annual variation in recruitment success. The alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) is an ecologically important species in Lake Michigan that utilizes a variety of habitats for spawning and early life growth. While productive, warm tributary mouths (connected to Lake Michigan) may contribute disproportionately more recruits (relative to their habitat volume) to the adult alewife population than cooler, less productive nearshore habitats, the extent of interannual variation in the relative contributions of recruits from these two habitat types remains unknown. We used an individual-based bioenergetics simulation model and input data on daily temperatures to estimate alewife recruitment to the adult population by these different habitat types. Simulations suggest that nearshore lake habitats typically produce the vast majority of young alewife recruits. However, tributary habitats may contribute the majority of alewife recruits during years of low recruitment. We suggest that high interannual variation in the relative importance of habitats for recruitment is a common phenomenon, which should be considered when developing habitat management plans for fish populations. ?? 2008 NRC.

  19. Modelling the impact of variations in ice sheet runoff on fjord and coastal biological productivity over annual to decadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sole, A. J.; Cowton, T. R.

    2015-12-01

    Each summer, vast quantities of surface-derived ice sheet meltwater runs off from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Much of this runoff is injected into glaciated fjords at depth beneath marine-terminating glaciers. Due to its low relative density, the runoff rises as a buoyant plume up the glaciers' calving fronts, entraining deep fjord water as it does so. This deep, ambient water tends to be relatively rich in nutrients and so the runoff plumes act to fertilise the surface layers of the fjord, leading to an observed late season spike in biological productivity in the fjord's surface layers. Although surface melting and runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet are predicted to increase significantly in the coming years and decades, the potential effect of this on fjord and coastal biological productivity is yet to be quantified. Here we present simulations of fjord circulation and biological productivity using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), and a new coupled representation of buoyant runoff plumes which enables decadal time period experiments of large three dimensional fjords. We investigate the effect on biological productivity of varying ice sheet runoff, ocean properties, near-surface winds and fjord geometry and bathymetry. We find that variations in ice sheet runoff are particularly important for biological productivity because the rate of discharge controls the depth at which the plumes reach neutral buoyancy and therefore whether the nutrient-rich deep water is delivered to the photic zone.

  20. Processing and modeling issues for thin-film solar cell devices: Annual subcontract report, January 16, 1995 -- January 15, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    Birkmire, R W; Phillips, J E; Buchanan, W A; Eser, E; Hegedus, S S; McCandless, B E; Meyers, P V; Shafarman, W N

    1996-08-01

    The overall mission of the Institute of Energy Conversion is the development of thin film photovoltaic cells, modules, and related manufacturing technology and the education of students and professionals in photovoltaic technology. The objectives of this four-year NREL subcontract are to advance the state of the art and the acceptance of thin film PV modules in the areas of improved technology for thin film deposition, device fabrication, and material and device characterization and modeling, relating to solar cells based on CuInSe{sub 2} and its alloys, on a-Si and its alloys, and on CdTe. In the area of CuInSe{sub 2} and its alloys, EEC researchers have produced CuIn{sub 1-x}GaxSe{sub 2} films by selenization of elemental and alloyed films with H{sub 2}Se and Se vapor and by a wide variety of process variations employing co-evaporation of the elements. Careful design, execution and analysis of these experiments has led to an improved understanding of the reaction chemistry involved, including estimations of the reaction rate constants. Investigation of device fabrication has also included studies of the processing of the Mo, US and ZnO deposition parameters and their influence on device properties. An indication of the success of these procedures was the fabrication of a 15% efficiency CuIn{sub 1-x}GaxSe{sub 2} solar cell.

  1. Annual Research Briefs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

  2. 1994 MCAP annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Harmony, S.C.; Boyack, B.E.

    1995-04-01

    VELCOR is an integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants. The entire spectrum of severe accident phenomena, including reactor coolant system and containment thermal-hydraulic response, core heatup, degradation and relocation, and fission product release and transport is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework for both boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Its current uses include the estimation of severe accident source terms and their sensitivities and uncertainties in a variety of applications. Independent assessment efforts have been successfully completed by the US and international MELCOR user communities. Most of these independent assessment efforts have been conducted to support the needs and fulfill the requirements of the individual user organizations. The resources required to perform an extensive set of model and integral code assessments are large. A prudent approach to fostering code development and maturation is to coordinate the individual assessment efforts of the MELCOR user community. While retaining individual control over assessment resources, each organization using the MELCOR code could work with the other users to broaden assessment coverage and minimize duplication. In recognition of these considerations, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) has initiated the MELCOR Cooperative Assessment Program (MCAP), a vehicle for coordinating and standardizing the assessment practices of the various MELCOR users. In addition, the user community will have a forum to better communicate lessons learned regarding MELCOR applications, capabilities, and user guidelines and limitations and to provide a user community perspective on code development needs and priorities. This second Annual Report builds on the foundation laid with the first Annual Report.

  3. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

    2008-01-01

    Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize

  4. Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part I. Annual Mean Response.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manabe, S.; Stouffer, R. J.; Spelman, M. J.; Bryan, K.

    1991-08-01

    This study investigates the response of a climate model to a gradual increase or decrease of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The model is a general circulation model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface system with global geography and seasonal variation of insulation. To offset the bias of the coupled model toward settling into an unrealistic state, the fluxes of heat and water at the ocean-atmosphere interface are adjusted by amounts that vary with season and geography but do not change from one year to the next. Starting from a quasi-equilibrium climate, three numerical time integrations of the coupled model are performed with gradually increasing, constant, and gradually decreasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.It is noted that the simulated response of sea surface temperature is very slow over the northern North Atlantic and the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere where vertical mixing of water penetrates very deeply. However, in most of the Northern Hemisphere and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the distribution of the change in surface air temperature of the model at the time of doubling (or halving) of atmospheric carbon dioxide resembles the equilibrium response of an atmospheric-mixed layer ocean model to CO2 doubling (or halving). For example, the rise of annual mean surface air temperature in response to the gradual increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases with latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and is larger over continents than oceans.When the time-dependent response of the model oceans to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide is compared with the corresponding response to the CO2, reduction at an identical rate, the penetration of the cold anomaly in the latter case is significantly deeper than that of the warm anomaly in the former case. The lack of symmetry in the penetration depth of a thermal anomaly between the two cases is associated with the difference in static stability, which is due mainly

  5. Annual Research Briefs: 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This report contains the 1995 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). In 1995 CTR continued its concentration on the development and application of large-eddy simulation to complex flows, development of novel modeling concepts for engineering computations in the Reynolds averaged framework, and turbulent combustion. In large-eddy simulation, a number of numerical and experimental issues have surfaced which are being addressed. The first group of reports in this volume are on large-eddy simulation. A key finding in this area was the revelation of possibly significant numerical errors that may overwhelm the effects of the subgrid-scale model. We also commissioned a new experiment to support the LES validation studies. The remaining articles in this report are concerned with Reynolds averaged modeling, studies of turbulence physics and flow generated sound, combustion, and simulation techniques. Fundamental studies of turbulent combustion using direct numerical simulations which started at CTR will continue to be emphasized. These studies and their counterparts carried out during the summer programs have had a noticeable impact on combustion research world wide.

  6. Role of spatial variability of rainfall intensity: improve- ment of Eagleson's classical model to explain the rela- tionship between the coefficient of variation of annual maximum discharge and catchment size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzuha, Yasuhisa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tomosugi, Kunio; Kishii, Tokuo; Komatsu, Yosuke

    2006-04-01

    Eagleson's classical regional flood frequency model is investigated. Our intention was not to improve the model, but to reveal previously unidentified important and dominant hydrological processes in it. The change of the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual maximum discharge with catchment area can be viewed as representing the spatial variance of floods in a homogeneous region. Several researchers have reported that the CV decreases as the catchment area increases, at least for large areas. On the other hand, Eagleson's classical studies have been known as pioneer efforts that combine the concept of similarity analysis (scaling) with the derived flood frequency approach. As we have shown, the classical model can reproduce the empirical relationship between the mean annual maximum discharge and catchment area, but it cannot reproduce the empirical decreasing CV-catchment area curve. Therefore, we postulate that previously unidentified hydrological processes would be revealed if the classical model were improved to reproduce the decreasing of CV with catchment area. First, we attempted to improve the classical model by introducing a channel network, but this was ineffective. However, the classical model was improved by introducing a two-parameter gamma distribution for rainfall intensity. What is important is not the gamma distribution itself, but those characteristics of spatial variability of rainfall intensity whose CV decreases with increasing catchment area. Introducing the variability of rainfall intensity into the hydrological simulations explains how the CV of rainfall intensity decreases with increasing catchment area. It is difficult to reflect the rainfall-runoff processes in the model while neglecting the characteristics of rainfall intensity from the viewpoint of annual flood discharge variances.

  7. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

  8. Annual maximum 5-day rainfall total and maximum number of consecutive dry days over Central America and the Caribbean in the late twenty-first century projected by an atmospheric general circulation model with three different horizontal resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakaegawa, T.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Kusunoki, S.

    2014-04-01

    We simulated changes in annual maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5D) and annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean with three different horizontal resolution atmospheric global general circulation models (AGCMs) and quantified the uncertainty of the projections. The RX5Ds and CDDs were projected to increase in most areas in response to global warming. However, consistent changes were confined to small areas: for RX5D, both coastal zones of northern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula; for CDD, the Pacific coastal zone of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Guatemala. All three AGCMs projected that RX5Ds and CDDs averaged over only the land area and over the entire area (land and ocean) would increase. The dependence of RX5D probability density functions on the horizontal resolutions was complex. Precipitation unrelated to tropical cyclones was primarily responsible for the projected increases in the frequency of RX5Ds greater than 300 mm.

  9. Annual Energy Review, 2008

    SciTech Connect

    2009-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and international energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions.

  10. 2010 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2010-01-01

    This annual report includes: an overview of Western; approaches for future hydropower and transmission service; major achievements in FY 2010; FY 2010 customer Integrated Resource Planning, or IRP, survey; and financial data.

  11. Inter-annual and Intra-annual Variability in River Flow and Inundation in African River Systems: Results from a new pan-African Land-surface Model Validated against Earth Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadson, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    The role of surface-water flooding in controlling fluxes of water and carbon between the land and the atmosphere is increasingly recognized in studies of the Earth system. Simultaneous advances in remote earth observation and large-scale land-surface and hydrological modeling promise improvements in our ability to understand these linkages, and suggest that improvements in prediction of river flow and inundation extents may result. Here we present an analysis of newly-available observational estimates of surface water inundation obtained through satellite Earth observation with results from simulations produced by using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land-surface model operating at 0.5 degree resolution over the African continent. The model was forced with meteorological input from the WATCH Forcing Data for the period 1981-2001 and sensitivity to various model configurations and parameter settings were tested. Both the PDM and TOPMODEL sub-grid scale runoff generation schemes were tested for parameter sensitivities, with the evaluation focussing on simulated river discharge in sub-catchments of the Congo, Nile, Niger, Orange, Okavango and Zambezi rivers. It was found that whilst the water balance in each of the catchments can be simulated with acceptable accuracy, the individual responses of each river vary between model configurations so that there is no single runoff parameterization scheme or parameter values that yields optimal results across all catchments. We trace these differences to the model's representation of sub-surface flow and make some suggestions to improve the performance of large-scale land-surface models for use in similar applications. Our findings also demonstrate links between episodes of extensive surface water flooding and large-scale climatic indices, although the pattern of correlations contains a level of spatial and temporal detail that warrants careful attention to the climatology of individual situations. These

  12. Fundamental quantitative analysis of microbial activity in aquifer bioreclamation; and Modeling the transport of biologically and chemically reactive solutes in a two-dimensional, heterogeneous intermediate scale system. Semi-annual progress report, August 1991--March 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Rittmann, B.E.; Valocchi, A.J.; Baveye, P.

    1992-12-31

    This report is the semi-annual progress report for the second half of the third year. The project has four primary areas: (1) biodegradation of poorly soluble organic contaminants; (2) dual-limitation kinetics of electron donors and acceptors; (3) two-dimensional modeling of biofilm reactions in nonhomogeneous porous media; and (4) biologically induced clogging in porous media. For each area, this report presents a brief summary of the previous progress, as well as reporting this period`s progress. In addition plans for future work are included.

  13. Natural gas annual 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-17

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1994 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1990 to 1994 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level.

  14. Natural gas annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1995 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1991 to 1995 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level.

  15. Inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the Biobío River, Central Chile: an analysis base on a decadal database along with 1-D reactive transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yévenes, M.; Figueroa, R.; Parra, O.; Farías, L.

    2015-01-01

    Rivers may act as important sinks (filters) or sources for inorganic nutrients between the land and the sea, depending on the biogeochemical processes and nutrient inputs along the river. This study examines the inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) seasonal (wet-dry) cycle for the Biobío River, one of the largest and most industrialized rivers of Central Chile (36°45'-38°49' S and 71°00'-73°20' W). Long-term water flow (1990-2012) and water quality datasets (2004-2012) were used along with a one-dimensional reactive transport ecosystem model to evaluate the effects of water flow and N inputs on seasonal pattern of DIN. From 2004 to 2012, annual average nitrate levels significantly increased from 1.73 ± 2.17 μmol L-1 (upstream of the river) to 18.4 ± 12.7 μmol L-1 (in the river mouth); while the annual average oxygen concentration decreased from 348 ± 22 to 278 ± 42 μmol L-1 between upstream and downstream, indicating an additional oxygen consumption. Variability in the mid-section of the river (station BB8) was identified as a major influence on the inter-annual variability and appeared to be the site of a major anthropogenic disturbance. However, there was also an influence of climate on riverine DIN concentrations; high DIN production occurred during wet years, whereas high consumption proceeded during dry years. Extremely reduced river flow and drought during summer also strongly affected the annual DIN concentration, reducing the DIN production. Additionally, summer storm events during drought periods appeared to cause significant runoff resulting in nitrate inputs to the river. The total DIN input reaching the river mouth was 0.159 Gmol yr-1, implying that internal production exceeds consumption processes, and identifying nitrification as one of the predominant processes occurring in the estuary. In the following, the impact on the river of DIN increases as a nutrient source, as well as climate and biogeochemical factors

  16. LLNL NESHAPs 2003 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S; Wilson, K R; Althouse, P E; Larson, J M; Bertoldo, N A; Tate, P J; Bowen, B

    2004-06-23

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2003 are summarized here. Livermore site: 0.044 mrem (0.44 {micro}Sv) (55% from point-source emissions, 45% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. Site 300: 0.017 mrem (0.17 {micro}Sv) (98% from point-source emissions, 2% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for two diffuse sources that were estimated using measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  17. LLNL NESHAPs 2002 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S-R; Tate, P J; Bertoldo, N A; Wilson, K R; Althouse, P E; Larson, J M

    2003-06-01

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2002 are summarized here: (1) Livermore site: 0.023 mrem (0.23 {micro}Sv) (43% from point-source emissions, 57% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes; and (2) Site 300: 0.021 mrem (0.21 {micro}Sv) (85% from point-source emissions, 15% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for three diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  18. 2005 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Chrzanowski, P; Walter, K

    2006-03-31

    As the cover of our ''2005 Annual Report'' highlights, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory joined the international science community in celebrating the World Year of Physics in 2005, with special events and science outreach and education programs. Einstein's remarkable discoveries in 1905 provided an opportunity to reflect on how physics has changed the world during the last century and on the promise of future beneficial discoveries. For half of the past century, Lawrence Livermore, which was established to meet an urgent national security need, has been contributing to the advancement of science and technology in a very special way. Co-founder Ernest O. Lawrence was the leading proponent in his generation of large-scale, multidisciplinary science and technology teams. That's Livermore's distinctive heritage and our continuing approach as a national laboratory managed and operated by the University of California for the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA). We focus on important problems that affect our nation's security and seek breakthrough advances in science and technology to achieve mission goals. An event in 2005 exemplifies our focus on science and technology advances in support of mission goals. In October, distinguished visitors came to Livermore to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (now called the Advanced Simulation and Computing Program, or ASC). ASC was launched in 1995 by DOE/NNSA to achieve a million-fold increase in computing power in a decade. The goal was motivated by the need to simulate the three-dimensional performance of a nuclear weapon in sufficient resolution and with the appropriately detailed physics models included. This mission-driven goal is a key part of fulfilling Livermore's foremost responsibility to ensure that the nuclear weapons in the nation's smaller 21st-century stockpile remain safe, reliable, and secure.

  19. Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    This section of the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 present the major assumptions of the modeling system used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in Appendix B. A synopsis of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented. The NEMS is developed and maintained by the office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projection of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by various government agencies and the private sector.

  20. Quantifying Annual Aboveground Net Primary Production in the Intermountain West

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As part of a larger project, methods were developed to quantify current year growth on grasses, forbs, and shrubs. Annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) data are needed for this project to calibrate results from computer simulation models and remote-sensing data. Measuring annual ANPP of ...

  1. International energy annual 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1998-02-01

    The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar, and wind electric power, biofuels energy for the US, and biofuels electric power for Brazil. New in the 1996 edition are estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum and coal, and the consumption and flaring of natural gas. 72 tabs.

  2. Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. For the first time, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is presented as a shorter edition under a newly adopted two-year release cycle. With this approach, full editions and shorter editions of the AEO will be produced in alternating years. This approach will allow EIA to focus more resources on rapidly changing energy markets both in the United States and internationally, and to consider how they might evolve over the next few years.

  3. LLNL NESHAPs 1996 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G.M.

    1997-01-06

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (10 microsieverts) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1996 operations were (1) Livermore site: 0. 093 mrem (0.93 microsievert) (52% from point-source emissions, 48% from diffuse-source emissions); (2) Site 300: 0.033 mrem (0.33 microsievert) (99% from point-source, 1% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were generally calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air-dispersion/dose-assessment model. Site-specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide inventory data or continuous-monitoring systems data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source. 5 figs., 8 tabs.

  4. NABE Annual Conference Journal 1988-1989.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malave, Lilliam M., Ed.

    This document contains papers from two NABE annual conferences: (17th, Houston, Texas, April 27-May 1, 1988) and (18th, Miami, Florida, May 9-13, 1989). Papers cover three categories: (1) bilingual education and bilingualism: realities in the twentieth century; (2) current ideologies and models in bilingual education; and (3) effective…

  5. Annual Income Tax Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keener, Sandra C.

    1992-01-01

    This annual guide to income tax for parents of children with disabilities covers organizing records; avoiding audits; deducting medical expenses; and considering the impact of recent changes in medical expenses, Social Security numbers for children, child care, earned income credit, and deduction for dependents. (DB)

  6. Annual Conference Abstracts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of Engineering Education, 1972

    1972-01-01

    Includes abstracts of papers presented at the 80th Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Education. The broad areas include aerospace, affiliate and associate member council, agricultural engineering, biomedical engineering, continuing engineering studies, chemical engineering, civil engineering, computers, cooperative…

  7. Ultrasound Annual, 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, R.C.; Hill, M.C.

    1984-01-01

    The 1984 edition of Ultrasound Annual explores new applications of ultrasound in speech and swallowing and offers guidelines on the use of ultrasound and nuclear medicine in thyroid and biliary tract disease. Other areas covered include Doppler sonography of the abdomen, intraoperative abdominal ultrasound, sonography of the placenta, ultrasound of the neonatal head and abdomen, and sonographic echo patterns created by fat.

  8. Annual Research Briefs - 1996

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    This report contains the 1996 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research. Last year, CTR hosted twelve resident Postdoctoral Fellows, three Research Associates, four Senior Research Fellows, and supported one doctoral student and ten short term visitors.

  9. UNICEF Annual Report, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, N.Y.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) details the programs and services provided by this organization in 1994. Following an overview of the year and a remembrance of former UNICEF Executive Director James P. Grant, the report describes developments in seven world regions and in specific emergency countries. The report…

  10. UNICEF Annual Report, 1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) details the programs and services provided by this organization in 1992-93. Following an introduction by UNICEF's executive director, the report briefly reviews UNICEF activities for 1992, then describes specific projects in the following areas: (1) child survival and development;…