Use of Words and Visuals in Modelling Context of Annual Plant

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Jungeun; DiNapoli, Joseph; Mixell, Robert A.; Flores, Alfinio

2017-01-01

This study looks at the various verbal and non-verbal representations used in a process of modelling the number of annual plants over time. Analysis focuses on how various representations such as words, diagrams, letters and mathematical equations evolve in the mathematization process of the modelling context. Our results show that (1) visual…

Prospects for distinguishing dark matter models using annual modulation

DOE PAGES

Witte, Samuel J.; Gluscevic, Vera; McDermott, Samuel D.

2017-02-24

It has recently been demonstrated that, in the event of a putative signal in dark matter direct detection experiments, properly identifying the underlying dark matter-nuclei interaction promises to be a challenging task. Given the most optimistic expectations for the number counts of recoil events in the forthcoming Generation 2 experiments, differentiating between interactions that produce distinct features in the recoil energy spectra will only be possible if a strong signal is observed simultaneously on a variety of complementary targets. However, there is a wide range of viable theories that give rise to virtually identical energy spectra, and may only differmore » by the dependence of the recoil rate on the dark matter velocity. In this work, we investigate how degeneracy between such competing models may be broken by analyzing the time dependence of nuclear recoils, i.e. the annual modulation of the rate. For this purpose, we simulate dark matter events for a variety of interactions and experiments, and perform a Bayesian model-selection analysis on all simulated data sets, evaluating the chance of correctly identifying the input model for a given experimental setup. Lastly, we find that including information on the annual modulation of the rate may significantly enhance the ability of a single target to distinguish dark matter models with nearly degenerate recoil spectra, but only with exposures beyond the expectations of Generation 2 experiments.« less

Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B.; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

2016-09-01

Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R2 values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize

Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale phosphorus loss

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Numerous models exist for describing phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields. The complexity of these models varies considerably ranging from simple empirically-based annual time-step models to more complex process-based daily time step models. While better accuracy is often assumed with more...

Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

PubMed Central

Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B.; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

2016-01-01

Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R2 values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited. PMID:27622593

Microscopic analysis of saturable absorbers: Semiconductor saturable absorber mirrors versus graphene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hader, J.; Moloney, J. V.; College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721

2016-02-07

Fully microscopic many-body calculations are used to study the influence of strong sub-picosecond pulses on the carrier distributions and corresponding optical response in saturable absorbers used for mode-locking—semiconductor (quantum well) saturable absorber mirrors (SESAMs) and single layer graphene based saturable absorber mirrors (GSAMs). Unlike in GSAMs, the saturation fluence and recovery time in SESAMs show a strong spectral dependence. While the saturation fluence in the SESAM is minimal at the excitonic bandgap, the optimal recovery time and least pulse distortion due to group delay dispersion are found for excitation higher in the first subband. For excitation near the SESAM bandgap,more » the saturation fluence is about one tenth of that in the GSAM. At energies above the bandgap, the fluences in both systems become similar. A strong dependence of the saturation fluence on the pulse width in both systems is caused by carrier relaxation during the pulse. The recovery time in graphene is found to be about two to four times faster than that in the SESAMs. The occurrence of negative differential transmission in graphene is shown to be caused by dopant related carriers. In SESAMs, a negative differential transmission is found when exciting below the excitonic resonance where excitation induced dephasing leads to an enhancement of the absorption. Comparisons of the simulation data to the experiment show a very good quantitative agreement.« less

AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF THE 2005 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ

EPA Science Inventory

An annual operation performance evaluation of the 2005 release of Models-3 CMAQ v4.5 has been performed. The poster presented results from the winter and summer season for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, organic carbon, PM2.5 mass and AQS 8-hr maximum ozone. Stati...

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD

Proceedings of the Annual Review Conference (13th) on Atmospheric Transmission Models Held in Hanscom AFB, Massachusetts on 5-6 June 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

PL-TR-92-2054 AD-A247 625 PROCEEDINGS OF THE 13TH ANNUAL REVIEW CONFERENCE ON ATMOSPHERIC TRANSMISSION MODELS, 5-6 JUNE 1990 Editors: F. X. Kneizys L...Security Classification) Proceedings of the 13th Annual Review Conference on Atmospheric Transmission Models. 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Editors, F.X...the 31 papers presented at the Thirteenth Annual Review Conference on Atmospheric Transmission Models held at the Geophysics Laborator-, (ASFC

75 FR 5241 - General Services Administration Acquisition Regulation; Rewrite of Part 512, Acquisition of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-02

... Acquisition Regulation; Rewrite of Part 512, Acquisition of Commercial Items AGENCIES: Office of Acquisition... Administration (GSA) is amending the General Services Administration Acquisition Regulation (GSAR) to update the text addressing the acquisition of commercial items. This rule is a result of the GSAM Rewrite...

78 FR 26407 - Goldman Sachs Trust II, et al.; Notice of Application

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-06

... Sachs Trust II, et al.; Notice of Application April 29, 2013. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange Commission... would grant relief from certain disclosure requirements. APPLICANTS: Goldman Sachs Trust II (the ``Trust...'', each of GSAM and GSAMI an ``Adviser'' and collectively, ``Advisers,'' and together with the Trust...

Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-12-01

Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

Updating Indiana Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Plot Data Using Eastern Broadleaf Forest Diameter Growth Models

Treesearch

Veronica C. Lessard

2001-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the North Central Research Station (NCRS), USDA Forest Service, has developed nonlinear, individual-tree, distance-independent annual diameter growth models. The models are calibrated for species groups and formulated as the product of an average diameter growth component and a modifier component. The regional models...

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

2012-01-01

Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

Using "snapshot" measurements of CH4 fluxes from peatlands to estimate annual budgets: interpolation vs. modelling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Sophie M.; Baird, Andy J.

2016-04-01

There is growing interest in estimating annual budgets of peatland-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchanges. Such budgeting is required for calculating peatland carbon balance and the radiative forcing impact of peatlands on climate. There have been multiple approaches used to estimate CO2 budgets; however, there is a limited literature regarding the modelling of annual CH4 budgets. Using data collected from flux chamber tests in an area of blanket peatland in North Wales, we compared annual estimates of peatland-atmosphere CH4 emissions using an interpolation approach and an additive and multiplicative modelling approach. Flux-chamber measurements represent a snapshot of the conditions on a particular site. In contrast to CO2, most studies that have estimated the time-integrated flux of CH4 have not used models. Typically, linear interpolation is used to estimate CH4 fluxes during the time periods between flux-chamber measurements. It is unclear how much error is involved with such a simple integration method. CH4 fluxes generally show a rise followed by a fall through the growing season that may be captured reasonably well by interpolation, provided there are sufficiently frequent measurements. However, day-to-day and week-to-week variability is also often evident in CH4 flux data, and will not necessarily be properly represented by interpolation. Our fits of the CH4 flux models yielded r2 > 0.5 in 38 of the 48 models constructed, with 55% of these having a weighted rw2 > 0.4. Comparison of annualised CH4 fluxes estimated by interpolation and modelling reveals no correlation between the two data sets; indeed, in some cases even the sign of the flux differs. The difference between the methods seems also to be related to the size of the flux - for modest annual fluxes there is a fairly even scatter of points around the 1:1 line, whereas when the modelled fluxes are high, the corresponding interpolated fluxes tend to be low. We consider the

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

A simple, single-substrate model to interpret intra-annual stable isotope signals in tree-ring cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogée, J.; Barbour, M. M.; Wingate, L.; Bert, D.; Bosc, A.; Stievenard, M.; Lambrot, C.; Pierre, M.; Bariac, T.; Dewar, R. C.

2009-04-01

High-resolution intra-annual measurements of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of cellulose in annual tree rings (δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose, respectively) reveal well-defined seasonal patterns that could contain valuable records of past climate and tree function. Interpreting these signals is nonetheless complex because they not only record the signature of current assimilates, but also depend on carbon allocation dynamics within the trees. Here, we present a simple, single-substrate model for wood growth containing only 12 main parameters. The model is used to interpret an isotopic intra-annual chronology collected in an even-aged maritime pine plantation growing in the South-West of France, where climate, soil and flux variables were also monitored. The empirical δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose exhibit dynamic seasonal patterns, with clear differences between years and individuals, that are mostly captured by the model. In particular, the amplitude of both signals is reproduced satisfactorily as well as the sharp 18O enrichment at the beginning of 1997 and the less pronounced 13C and 18O depletion observed at the end of the latewood. Our results suggest that the single-substrate hypothesis is a good approximation for tree ring studies on Pinus pinaster, at least for the environmental conditions covered by this study. A sensitivity analysis revealed that, in the early wood, the model was particularly sensitive to the date when cell wall thickening begins (twt). We therefore propose to use the model to reconstruct time series of twt and explore how climate influences this key parameter of xylogenesis.

A single-substrate model to interpret high-resolution intra-annual stable isotope signals in tree ring cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogée, J.; Barbour, M. M.; Dewar, R. C.; Wingate, L.; Bert, D.; Bosc, A.; Lambrot, C.; Stievenard, M.; Bariac, T.; Berbigier, P.; Loustau, D.

2007-12-01

High-resolution measurements of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of cellulose in annual tree rings (δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose, respectively) reveal well-defined seasonal patterns that could contain valuable records of past climate and tree function. Interpreting these signals is nonetheless complex because they not only record the signature of current assimilates, but also depend on carbon allocation dynamics within the trees. Here, we will present a single-substrate model for wood growth in order to interpret qualitatively and quantitatively these seasonal isotopic signals. We will also show how this model can relate to more complex models of phloem transport and cambial activity. The model will then be tested against an isotopic intra-annual chronology collected on a Pinus pinaster tree equipped with point dendrometers and growing on a Carboeurope site where climate, soil and flux variables are also monitored. The empirical δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose signals exhibit dynamic seasonal patterns with clear differences between years, which makes it suitable for model testing. We will show how our simple model of carbohydrate reserves, forced by sap flow and eddy covariance measurements, enables us to interpret these seasonal and inter-annual patterns. Finally, we will present a sensitivity analysis of the model, showing how gas-exchange parameters, carbon and water pool sizes or wood maturation times affect these isotopic signals. Acknowledgements: this study benefited from the CarboEurope-IP Bray site facilities and was funded by the French INSU programme Eclipse, with an additional support from the INRA department EFPA.

A case study of cost-efficient staffing under annualized hours.

PubMed

van der Veen, Egbert; Hans, Erwin W; Veltman, Bart; Berrevoets, Leo M; Berden, Hubert J J M

2015-09-01

We propose a mathematical programming formulation that incorporates annualized hours and shows to be very flexible with regard to modeling various contract types. The objective of our model is to minimize salary cost, thereby covering workforce demand, and using annualized hours. Our model is able to address various business questions regarding tactical workforce planning problems, e.g., with regard to annualized hours, subcontracting, and vacation planning. In a case study for a Dutch hospital two of these business questions are addressed, and we demonstrate that applying annualized hours potentially saves up to 5.2% in personnel wages annually.

2013 Annual Disability Statistics Compendium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houtenville, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium" is a publication of statistics about people with disabilities and the government programs which serve them. It is modeled after the U.S. Department of Commerce's annual "Statistical Abstracts of the United States." The "Compendium" is designed to serve as a reference guide…

Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale P loss model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolster, Carl H.; Vadas, Peter A.; Boykin, Debbie

2016-08-01

Phosphorous (P) fate and transport models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. Because all models are simplifications of complex systems, there will exist an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with their predictions. It is therefore important that efforts be directed at identifying, quantifying, and communicating the different sources of model uncertainties. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our analysis included calculating parameter uncertainties and confidence and prediction intervals for five internal regression equations in APLE. We also estimated uncertainties of the model input variables based on values reported in the literature. We then predicted P loss for a suite of fields under different management and climatic conditions while accounting for uncertainties in the model parameters and inputs and compared the relative contributions of these two sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty associated with predictions of P loss. Both the overall magnitude of the prediction uncertainties and the relative contributions of the two sources of uncertainty varied depending on management practices and field characteristics. This was due to differences in the number of model input variables and the uncertainties in the regression equations associated with each P loss pathway. Inspection of the uncertainties in the five regression equations brought attention to a previously unrecognized limitation with the equation used to partition surface-applied fertilizer P between leaching and runoff losses. As a result, an alternate equation was identified that provided similar predictions with much less uncertainty. Our results demonstrate how a thorough uncertainty and model residual analysis can be used to identify limitations with a model. Such insight can then be used to guide future data collection and model

Bioenergetics modeling of the annual consumption of zooplankton by pelagic fish feeding in the Northeast Atlantic

PubMed Central

Utne, Kjell Rong; Jansen, Teunis; Huse, Geir

2018-01-01

The present study uses bioenergetics modeling to estimate the annual consumption of the main zooplankton groups by some of the most commercially important planktivorous fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, namely Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and NEA mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The data was obtained from scientific surveys in the main feeding area (Norwegian Sea) in the period 2005–2010. By incorporating novel information about ambient temperature, seasonal growth and changes in the diet from stomach content analyses, annual consumption of the different zooplankton groups by pelagic fish is estimated. The present study estimates higher consumption estimates than previous studies for the three species and suggests that fish might have a greater impact on the zooplankton community as foragers. This way, NEA mackerel, showing the highest daily consumption rates, and NSS herring, annually consume around 10 times their total biomass, whereas blue whiting consume about 6 times their biomass in zooplankton. The three species were estimated to consume an average of 135 million (M) tonnes of zooplankton each year, consisting of 53–85 M tonnes of copepods, 20–32 M tonnes of krill, 8–42 M tonnes of appendicularians and 0.2–1.2 M tonnes of fish, depending on the year. For NSS herring and NEA mackerel the main prey groups are calanoids and appendicularians, showing a peak in consumption during June and June–July, respectively, and suggesting high potential for inter-specific feeding competition between these species. In contrast, blue whiting maintain a low consumption rate from April to September, consuming mainly larger euphausiids. Our results suggest that the three species can coexist regardless of their high abundance, zooplankton consumption rates and overlapping diet. Accordingly, the species might have niche segregation, as they are species specific, showing annual and inter-annual

Modeling global annual N2O and NO emissions from fertilized fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwman, A. F.; Boumans, L. J. M.; Batjes, N. H.

2002-12-01

Information from 846 N2O emission measurements in agricultural fields and 99 measurements for NO emissions was used to describe the influence of various factors regulating emissions from mineral soils in models for calculating global N2O and NO emissions. Only those factors having a significant influence on N2O and NO emissions were included in the models. For N2O these were (1) environmental factors (climate, soil organic C content, soil texture, drainage and soil pH); (2) management-related factors (N application rate per fertilizer type, type of crop, with major differences between grass, legumes and other annual crops); and (3) factors related to the measurements (length of measurement period and frequency of measurements). The most important controls on NO emission include the N application rate per fertilizer type, soil organic-C content and soil drainage. Calculated global annual N2O-N and NO-N emissions from fertilized agricultural fields amount to 2.8 and 1.6 Mtonne, respectively. The global mean fertilizer-induced emissions for N2O and NO amount to 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, of the N applied. These overall results account for the spatial variability of the main N2O and NO emission controls on the landscape scale.

Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Ritenberga, Olga; Sofiev, Mikhail; Siljamo, Pilvi; Saarto, Annika; Dahl, Aslog; Ekebom, Agneta; Sauliene, Ingrida; Shalaboda, Valentina; Severova, Elena; Hoebeke, Lucie; Ramfjord, Hallvard

2018-02-15

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sub-annual paleoenvironmental information evaluated from intensity variations of fluorescent annual layers in a stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Hana; Onishi, Yuri; Ishihara, Yoshiro; Yoshimura, Kazuhisa

2017-04-01

Stalagmites can provide various types of paleoenvironmental information such as information on vegetation and climate changes. Fluorescent annual layers formed by humic substances (mainly fulvic acids: FA) in these stalagmites can also provide a time proxy, and a time series on precipitation. Fluorescence intensity patterns in these annual layers can be classified into symmetric, gradually increasing and gradually decreasing types. Onishi et al. (EGU2016) demonstrated the existence of these fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers, and their stratigraphic changes, by numerical simulations, and suggested that the patterns could provide paleoenvironmental information at a sub-annual resolution. In this study, we carried out an analysis of fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers of a stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan, and also simulated the patterns in the stalagmite, to obtain paleoenvironmental information. Fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers are strongly affected by annual variations in FA concentration and precipitation rates of calcite. As the result of simulations of fluorescence intensity patterns, cumulative variations and various types of pattern are reproduced. These differences are depending on time lags between the variation of the FA concentration in the drip waters, and that of the growth rate of the stalagmite. Co-precipitation models of FA are divided into the "Hiatus model" in which FA are preferentially preserved in the stalagmite when its growth rate is relatively low, and the "Partition coefficient (PC) model" in which FA concentrations in the stalagmite increase when the calcite precipitation rate is relatively high. However, various fluorescence intensity patterns in the annual layers could be formed under a combination or either of both of the models. Fluorescence intensity patterns in an annual layer in the stalagmite from Ryuo-do Cave, Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan

Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.

2000-01-01

Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

Integrated ray tracing simulation of annual variation of spectral bio-signatures from cloud free 3D optical Earth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Dongok; Kim, Sug-Whan; Kim, Dae Wook; Lee, Jae-Min; Lee, Hanshin; Park, Won Hyun; Seong, Sehyun; Ham, Sun-Jeong

2010-09-01

Understanding the Earth spectral bio-signatures provides an important reference datum for accurate de-convolution of collapsed spectral signals from potential earth-like planets of other star systems. This study presents a new ray tracing computation method including an improved 3D optical earth model constructed with the coastal line and vegetation distribution data from the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map. Using non-Lambertian bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) models, the input earth surface model is characterized with three different scattering properties and their annual variations depending on monthly changes in vegetation distribution, sea ice coverage and illumination angle. The input atmosphere model consists of one layer with Rayleigh scattering model from the sea level to 100 km in altitude and its radiative transfer characteristics is computed for four seasons using the SMART codes. The ocean scattering model is a combination of sun-glint scattering and Lambertian scattering models. The land surface scattering is defined with the semi empirical parametric kernel method used for MODIS and POLDER missions. These three component models were integrated into the final Earth model that was then incorporated into the in-house built integrated ray tracing (IRT) model capable of computing both spectral imaging and radiative transfer performance of a hypothetical space instrument as it observes the Earth from its designated orbit. The IRT model simulation inputs include variation in earth orientation, illuminated phases, and seasonal sea ice and vegetation distribution. The trial simulation runs result in the annual variations in phase dependent disk averaged spectra (DAS) and its associated bio-signatures such as NDVI. The full computational details are presented together with the resulting annual variation in DAS and its associated bio-signatures.

Generation of multi annual land use and crop rotation data for regional agro-ecosystem modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhoff, G.; Lussem, U.; Sulis, M.; Bareth, G.

2017-12-01

For agro-ecosystem modeling on a regional scale with systems like the Community Land Model (CLM), detailed crop type and crop rotation information on the parcel-level is of key importance. Only with this, accurate assessments of the fluxes associated with the succession of crops and their management are possible. However, sophisticated agro-ecosystem modeling for large regions is only feasible at grid resolutions, which are much coarser than the spatial resolution of modern land use maps (usually ca. 30 m). As a result, much of the original information content of the maps has to be dismissed during resampling. Here we present our mapping approach for the Rur catchment (located in the west of Germany), which was developed to address these demands and issues. We integrated remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods to classify multi temporal images of (e.g.) Landsat, RapidEye and Sentinel-2 to generate annual crop maps for the years 2008-2017 at 15 m spatial resolution (accuracy always ca. 90 %). A key aspect of our method is the consideration of crop phenology for the data selection and the analysis. In a GIS, the annul crop maps were integrated to a crop sequence dataset from which the major crop rotations were derived (based on the 10-years). To retain the multi annual crop succession and crop area information at coarser grid resolutions, cell-based land use fractions, including other land use classes were calculated for each year and for various target cell sizes (1-32 arc seconds). The resulting datasets contain the contribution (in percent) of every land use class to each cell. Our results show that parcels with the major crop types can be differentiated with a high accuracy and on an annual basis. The analysis of the crop sequence data revealed a very large number of different crop rotations, but only relatively few crop rotations cover larger areas. This strong diversity emphasizes the importance of information on crop rotations to reduce

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced

Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

PubMed

Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin

2018-05-01

Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km 2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

Joint modelling of annual maximum drought severity and corresponding duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosunoglu, Fatih; Kisi, Ozgur

2016-12-01

In recent years, the joint distribution properties of drought characteristics (e.g. severity, duration and intensity) have been widely evaluated using copulas. However, history of copulas in modelling drought characteristics obtained from streamflow data is still short, especially in semi-arid regions, such as Turkey. In this study, unlike previous studies, drought events are characterized by annual maximum severity (AMS) and corresponding duration (CD) which are extracted from daily streamflow of the seven gauge stations located in Çoruh Basin, Turkey. On evaluation of the various univariate distributions, the Exponential, Weibull and Logistic distributions are identified as marginal distributions for the AMS and CD series. Archimedean copulas, namely Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Frank and Gumbel-Hougaard, are then employed to model joint distribution of the AMS and CD series. With respect to the Anderson Darling and Cramér-von Mises statistical tests and the tail dependence assessment, Gumbel-Hougaard copula is identified as the most suitable model for joint modelling of the AMS and CD series at each station. Furthermore, the developed Gumbel-Hougaard copulas are used to derive the conditional and joint return periods of the AMS and CD series which can be useful for designing and management of reservoirs in the basin.

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

EFFECT OF RESIDENCE TIME ON ANNUAL EXPORT AND DENITRIFICATION OF NITROGEN IN ESTUARIES: A MODEL ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A simple model of annual average response of an estuary to mean nitrogen loading rate and freshwater residence time was developed and tested. It uses nitrogen inputs from land, deposition from the atmosphere, and first-order calculations of internal loss rate and export to perfor...

A model to evaluate the costs and clinical effectiveness of human papilloma virus screening compared with annual papanicolaou cytology in Germany.

PubMed

Petry, Karl Ulrich; Barth, Cordula; Wasem, Jürgen; Neumann, Anja

2017-05-01

We modelled human papilloma virus (HPV) primary screening scenarios compared with Pap cytology to evaluate clinical effectiveness and projected annual costs in Germany. A Markov cohort model was built to compare the budget impact of annual Pap cytology with different 5-yearly HPV screening scenarios: (1) a positive HPV test followed by Pap cytology; (2) a positive HPV test followed by p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology; (3) a positive HPV test followed by colposcopy if HPV-16/18-positive or p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology if positive for other subtypes; (4) co-testing with HPV and Pap. Screening scenarios were based on a 10-year horizon. All HPV screening scenarios in the model were associated with fewer deaths from missed diagnosis of cervical cancer compared with Pap screening; 10-year totals n=172-344 (1.5-3 per 100,000) versus n=477 (4.1 per 100,000), respectively. Total annual costs were lower with HPV screening than Pap cytology. The projected average annual cost for HPV screening ranged from €117 million to €136 million compared with €177 million for Pap screening, representing annual savings of €41-60 million. The greatest clinical impact was achieved with primary HPV screening (with genotyping) followed by colposcopy for HPV 16/18-positive women or p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology for women positive for other HPV subtypes. Screening strategies including primary HPV testing for high-risk subtypes (HPV-16/18) in conjunction with p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology can improve the detection of cervical cancer at a lower total annual cost than conventional Pap cytology screening. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Annual, semi-annual and ter-annual variations of gravity wave momentum flux in 13 years of SABER data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dan; Preusse, Peter; Ern, Manfred; Strube, Cornelia

2017-04-01

In this study, the variations at different time scales such as the annual cycle, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), the ter-annual cycle (about four monthly) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal mean GW amplitudes and GW momentum flux (GWMF) have been investigated using satellite observations from 2002-2014 and combining ECMWF high resolution data with the GORGRAT model. The global distribution (patterns) of spectral amplitudes of GW momentum flux in stratosphere and mesosphere (from 30 km to 90 km) show that the annual cycle is the most predominant variation, and then are SAO, ter-annual cycle and QBO. For annual components, two relatively isolated amplitude maxima appear in each hemisphere: a subtropical maximum is associated with convective sources in summer, a mid and high latitude maximum is associated with the polar vortex in winter. In the subtropics, GWs propagate upward obliquely to the higher latitudes. The winter maximum in the southern hemisphere has larger momentum flux than that one in the northern hemisphere. While on the SH the phase (i.e. time corresponding to the maximum GWMF) continuously descends with the maximum in July in the upper mesosphere and in September in the lower stratosphere, on the northern hemisphere, the phase has no visible altitude dependence with a maximum in December. For semiannual variations, in the MLT (70-80 km) region, there is an obvious enhancement of spectral amplitude at equatorial latitudes which relate to the dissipation of convectively forced GWs. The SAO in absolute momentum flux and the annual cycle in zonal momentum flux indicated that the variations at mid-latitudes (about from 30°-40°) are not a SAO signals but rather an annual cycle when the direction of GWMF is considered. The ter-annual cycle may be related to the duration of active convection in subtropical latitudes (from June to Sep. in north hemisphere) Indications for QBO are found latitude extension to mid-latitudes in stratosphere of

Can Statistical Modeling Increase Annual Fund Performance? An Experiment at the University of Maryland, College Park.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Stephen R.

Annual funds face pressures to contact all alumni to maximize participation, but these efforts are costly. This paper uses a logistic regression model to predict likely donors among alumni from the College of Arts & Humanities at the University of Maryland, College Park. Alumni were grouped according to their predicted probability of donating…

The Martian annual atmospheric pressure cycle - Years without great dust storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tillman, James E.; Johnson, Neal C.; Guttorp, Peter; Percival, Donald B.

1993-01-01

A model of the annual cycle of pressure on Mars for a 2-yr period, chosen to include one year at the Viking Lander 2 and to minimize the effect of great dust storms at the 22-deg N Lander 1 site, was developed by weighted least squares fitting of the Viking Lander pressure measurements to an annual mean, and fundamental and the first four harmonics of the annual cycle. Close agreement was obtained between the two years, suggesting that an accurate representation of the annual CO2 condensation-sublimation cycle can be established for such years. This model is proposed as the 'nominal' Martian annual pressure cycle, and applications are suggested.

Annual Energy Outlook

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

The Annual Energy Outlook provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and includes cases with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and energy policies. With strong domestic production and relatively flat demand, the United States becomes a net energy exporter over the projection period in most cases.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Annual modulation experiments, galactic models and WIMPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, Robert G.

Our task in the paper is to examine some recent experiments (in the period 1996-2002) bearing on the issue of whether there is dark matter in the universe in the form of neutralino WIMPs (weakly interacting massive particles). Our main focus is an experiment performed by the DAMA group that claims to have found an 'annual modulation signature' for the WIMP. DAMA's result has been hotly contested by two other groups, EDELWEISS and CDMS, and we study the details of the experiments performed by all three groups. Our goal is to investigate the philosophic and sociological implications of this controversy. Particularly, using an innovative theoretical strategy suggested by (Copi, C. and L. M. Krauss (2003). Comparing interaction rate detectors for weakly interacting massive particles with annual modulation detectors. Physical Review D, 67, 103 507), we suggest a new way of resolving discordant experimental data (extending a previous analysis by (Franklin, A. (2002). Selectivity and discord. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press). In addition, we are in a position to contribute substantively to the debate between realists and constructive empiricists. Finally, from a sociological standpoint, we remark that DAMA's work has been valuable in mobilizing other research teams and providing them with a critical focus.

Climate change impact on the annual water balance in the northwest Florida coastal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizad, K.; Wang, D.; Alimohammadi, N.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through Florida Panhandle and ended to Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with aridity index around one. Watershed provides habitat for a number of threatened and endangered animal and plant species. However, climate change affects hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this catchment. This research is mainly focuses on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning pattern of rainfall from mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal scales. At the mean annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff and evaporation assuming negligible water storage changes. Mean annual runoff is controlled by both mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. Changes in long term mean runoff caused by variations of long term mean precipitation and potential evaporation will be evaluated based on Budyko hypothesis. At the annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff, evaporation, and storage change. Inter-annual variability of runoff and evaporation are mainly affected by the changes of mean annual climate variables as well as their inter-annual variability. In order to model and evaluate each component of water balance at the annual scale, parsimonious but reliable models, are developed. Budyko hypothesis on the existing balance between available water and energy supply is reconsidered and redefined for the sub-annual time scale and reconstructed accordingly in order to accurately model seasonal hydrologic balance of the catchment. Models are built in the seasonal time frame with a focus on the role of storage change in water cycle. Then for Chipola catchment, models are parameterized based on a sufficient time span of historical data and the

ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

2013-04-01

A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast

Annual Tree Growth Predictions From Periodic Measurements

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2004-01-01

Data from annual measurements of a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation were available for this study. Regression techniques were employed to model annual changes of individual trees in terms of diameters, heights, and survival probabilities. Subsets of the data that include measurements every 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years were used to fit the same...

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

2015-04-01

Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

PubMed

Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

2016-09-15

Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Using remote sensing and modeling techniques to investigate the annual parasite incidence of malaria in Loreto, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mousam, Aneela; Maggioni, Viviana; Delamater, Paul L.; Quispe, Antonio M.

2017-10-01

Between 2001 and 2010 significant progress was made towards reducing the number of malaria cases in Peru; however, the country saw an increase between 2011 and 2015. This work attempts to uncover the associations among various climatic and environmental variables and the annual malaria parasite incidence in the Peruvian region of Loreto. A Multilevel Mixed-effects Poisson Regression model is employed, focusing on the 2009-2013 period, when trends in malaria incidence shifted from decreasing to increasing. The results indicate that variations in elevation (β = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.81), soil moisture (β = 0.0021; 95% CI, 0.0019-0.0022), rainfall (β = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.61), and normalized difference vegetation index (β = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.83-2.43) is associated with higher annual parasite incidence, whereas an increase in temperature (β = -0.0043; 95% CI, - 0.0044- 0.0041) is associated with a lower annual parasite incidence. The results from this study are particularly useful for healthcare workers in Loreto and have the potential of being integrated within malaria elimination plans.

Analysis on inter-annual variability of CO2 exchange in Arctic tundra: a model-data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López Blanco, E.; Lund, M.; Christensen, T. R.; Smallman, T. L.; Slevin, D.; Westergaard-Nielsen, A.; Tamstorf, M. P.; Williams, M.

2017-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are exposed to rapid changes triggered by the climate variability, thus there is a growing concern about how the carbon (C) exchange balance will respond to climate change. There is a lack of knowledge about the mechanisms that drive the interactions between photosynthesis and ecological respiration with changes in C stocks in the Arctic tundra across full annual cycles. The reduction of uncertainties can be addressed through process-based modelling efforts. Here, we report the independent predictions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) calculated from the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model across eight years. The model products are validated with observational data obtained from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program in West Greenland tundra (64° N). Overall, the model results explain 71%, 73% and 51% of the variance in NEE, GPP and Reco respectively using data on meteorology and local vegetation and soil structure. The estimated leaf area index (LAI) is able to explain 80% of the plant greenness variation, which was used as a plant phenology proxy. The full annual cumulated NEE during the 2008-2015 period was -0.13 g C m-2 on average (range -30.6 to 34.1 g C m-2), while GPP was -214.6 g C m-2 (-126.2 to -332.8 g C m-2) and Reco was 214.4 g C m-2 (213.9 to 302.2 g C m-2). We found that the model supports the main finding from our previous analysis on flux responses to meteorological variations and biological disturbance. Here, large inter-annual variations in GPP and Reco are also compensatory, and so NEE remains stable across climatically diverse snow-free seasons. Further, we note evidence that leaf maintenance and root growth respiration are highly correlated with GPP (R2 = 0.92 and 0.83, p < 0.001), concluding that these relations likely drive the insensitivity of NEE. Interestingly, the model quantifies the contribution of the larvae outbreak occurred in 2011 in about 27

Chevron: Refinery Identifies $4.4 Million in Annual Savings by Using Process Simulation Models to Perform Energy-Efficiency Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2004-05-01

In an energy-efficiency study at its refinery near Salt Lake City, Utah, Chevron focused on light hydrocarbons processing. The company found it could recover hydrocarbons from its fuel gas system and sell them. By using process simulation models of special distillation columns and associated reboilers and condensers, Chevron could predict the performance of potential equipment configuration changes and process modifications. More than 25,000 MMBtu in natural gas could be saved annually if a debutanizer upgrade project and a new saturated gas plant project were completed. Together, these projects would save $4.4 million annually.

AAPCC Annual Reports

MedlinePlus

... Annual Report 2000 Annual Report 1999 Annual Report Poison Data National Poison Data System Uses for NPDS ... Elements NPDS FAQs Annual Reports Find Your Local Poison Center Poison centers offer free, private, confidential medical ...

Estimating annual bole biomass production using uncertainty analysis

Treesearch

Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O' Connell

2007-01-01

Two common sampling methodologies coupled with a simple statistical model were evaluated to determine the accuracy and precision of annual bole biomass production (BBP) and inter-annual variability estimates using this type of approach. We performed an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with radial growth core data from trees in three Douglas...

Ocean Color and the Equatorial Annual Cycle in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2012-12-01

The presence of chlorophyll, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and other scatterers in ocean surface waters affect the flux divergence of solar radiation and thus the vertical distribution of radiant heating of the ocean. While this may directly alter the local mixed-layer depth and temperature (Martin 1985; Strutton & Chavez 2004), non-local changes are propagated through advection (Manizza et al. 2005; Murtugudde et al. 2002; Nakamoto et al. 2001; Sweeny et al. 2005). In and coupled feedbacks (Lengaigne et al. 2007; Marzeion & Timmermann 2005). Anderson et al. (2007), Anderson et al. (2009) and Gnanadesikan & Anderson (2009) have performed a series of experiments with a fully coupled climate model which parameterizes the e-folding depth of solar irradiance in terms of surface chlorophyll-a concentration. The results have so far been discussed with respect to the climatic mean state and ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific. We extend the discussion here to the Pacific equatorial annual cycle. The focus of the coupled experiments has been the sensitivity of the coupled system to regional differences in chlorophyll concentration. While runs have been completed with realistic SeaWiFS-derived monthly composite chlorophyll ('green') and with a globally chlorophyll-free ocean ('blue'), the concentrations in two additional runs have been selectively set to zero in specific regions: the oligotrophic subtropical gyres ('gyre') in one case and the mesotrophic gyre margins ('margin') in the other. The annual cycle of ocean temperatures exhibits distinctly reduced amplitudes in the 'blue' and 'margin' experiments, and a slight reduction in 'gyre' (while ENSO variability almost vanishes in 'blue' and 'gyre', but amplifies in 'margin' - thus the frequently quoted inverse correlation between ENSO and annual amplitudes holds only for the 'green' / 'margin' comparison). It is well-known that on annual time scales, the anomalous divergence of surface currents and vertical

CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

PubMed

Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

2013-05-07

In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model.

Annual and seasonal variations in the low-latitude topside ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y. Z.; Bailey, G. J.; Oyama, K.-I.

1998-08-01

Annual and seasonal variations in the low-latitude topside ionosphere are investigated using observations made by the Hinotori satellite and the Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM). The observed electron densities at 600 km altitude show a strong annual anomaly at all longitudes. The average electron densities of conjugate latitudes within the latitude range +/-25° are higher at the December solstice than at the June solstice by about 100 during daytime and 30 during night-time. Model calculations show that the annual variations in the neutral gas densities play important roles. The model values obtained from calculations with inputs for the neutral densities obtained from MSIS86 reproduce the general behaviour of the observed annual anomaly. However, the differences in the modelled electron densities at the two solstices are only about 30 of that seen in the observed values. The model calculations suggest that while the differences between the solstice values of neutral wind, resulting from the coupling of the neutral gas and plasma, may also make a significant contribution to the daytime annual anomaly, the E×B drift velocity may slightly weaken the annual anomaly during daytime and strengthen the anomaly during the post-sunset period. It is suggested that energy sources, other than those arising from the 6 difference in the solar EUV fluxes at the two solstices due to the change in the Sun-Earth distance, may contribute to the annual anomaly. Observations show strong seasonal variations at the solstices, with the electron density at 600 km altitude being higher in the summer hemisphere than in the winter hemisphere, contrary to the behaviour in NmF2. Model calculations confirm that the seasonal behaviour results from effects caused by transequatorial component of the neutral wind in the direction summer hemisphere to winter hemisphere. Acknowledgements. We thank all the members of the Exos-D project team, especially K. Tsuruda and H. Oya

Water balance model for mean annual hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions in surface waters of the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, Gabriel J.; Kennedy, Casey D.; Liu, Zhongfang; Stalker, Jeremy

2011-12-01

The stable H and O isotope composition of river and stream water records information on runoff sources and land-atmosphere water fluxes within the catchment and is a potentially powerful tool for network-based monitoring of ecohydrological systems. Process-based hydrological models, however, have thus far shown limited power to replicate observed large-scale variation in U.S. surface water isotope ratios. Here we develop a geographic information system-based model to predict long-term annual average surface water isotope ratios across the contiguous United States. We use elevation-explicit, gridded precipitation isotope maps as model input and data from a U.S. Geological Survey monitoring program for validation. We find that models incorporating monthly variation in precipitation-evapotranspiration (P-E) amounts account for the majority (>89%) of isotopic variation and have reduced regional bias relative to models that do not consider intra-annual P-E effects on catchment water balance. Residuals from the water balance model exhibit strong spatial patterning and correlations that suggest model residuals isolate additional hydrological signal. We use interpolated model residuals to generate optimized prediction maps for U.S. surface water δ2H and δ18O values. We show that the modeled surface water values represent a relatively accurate and unbiased proxy for drinking water isotope ratios across the United States, making these data products useful in ecological and criminal forensics applications that require estimates of the local environmental water isotope variation across large geographic regions.

Climate, interseasonal storage of soil water, and the annual water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1994-01-01

The effects of annual totals and seasonal variations of precipitation and potential evaporation on the annual water balance are explored. It is assumed that the only other factor of significance to annual water balance is a simple process of water storage, and that the relevant storage capacity is the plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil. Under the assumption that precipitation and potential evaporation vary sinusoidally through the year, it is possible to derive an analytic solution of the storage problem, and this yields an expression for the fraction of precipitation that evaporates (and the fraction that runs off) as a function of three dimensionless numbers: the ratio of annual potential evaporation to annual precipitation (index of dryness); an index of the seasonality of the difference between precipitation and potential evaporation; and the ratio of plant-available water-holding capacity to annual precipitation. The solution is applied to the area of the United States east of 105??W, using published information on precipitation, potential evaporation, and plant-available water-holding capacity as inputs, and using an independent analysis of observed river runoff for model evaluation. The model generates an areal mean annual runoff of only 187 mm, which is about 30% less than the observed runoff (263 mm). The discrepancy is suggestive of the importance of runoff-generating mechanisms neglected in the model. These include intraseasonal variability (storminess) of precipitation, spatial variability of storage capacity, and finite infiltration capacity of land. ?? 1994.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a

Annual and Semi-Annual Temperature Oscillations in the Upper Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niciejewski, R. J.; Killeen, T. L.

1995-01-01

Fourier transform spectrometer observations of the mesosphere have been performed at the University of Michigan (latitude: 42.5 N) on a long term basis. A database of near infrared Meinel hydroxyl spectra has been accumulated from which rotational temperatures have been determined. Harmonic analysis of one-day averaged temperatures for the period 1992.0 to 1994.5 has shown a distinct annual and semi-annual variation. Subsequent fitting of a five term periodic function characterizing the annual and semi-annual temperature oscillations to the daily averaged temperatures was performed. The resultant mean temperature and the amplitudes and phases of the annual and semi-annual variations are shown to coincide with an emission height slightly above 85 km which is consistent with the mean rocket derived altitude for peak nocturnal hydroxyl emission.

Modelling the impact of retention-detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction.

PubMed

Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, Søren; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Taylor, Heidi; Bockhorn, Britta; Larsen, Hauge; Kjølby, Morten Just; Blicher, Anne Steensen; Binning, Philip John

2015-01-01

Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark. The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m³/100 m² (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous simulations covering 22 years showed that annual stormwater runoff was reduced by 68-87%, and that the retention volume was on average 53% full at the beginning of rain events. The effect of different retention-detention volume combinations was simulated, and results showed that allocating 20-40% of a soakaway volume to detention would significantly increase peak runoff reduction with a small reduction in the annual runoff.

Climate, soil water storage, and the average annual water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the development and testing of the hypothesis that the long-term water balance is determined only by the local interaction of fluctuating water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration), mediated by water storage in the soil. Adoption of this hypothesis, together with idealized representations of relevant input variabilities in time and space, yields a simple model of the water balance of a finite area having a uniform climate. The partitioning of average annual precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff depends on seven dimensionless numbers: the ratio of average annual potential evapotranspiration to average annual precipitation (index of dryness); the ratio of the spatial average plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil to the annual average precipitation amount; the mean number of precipitation events per year; the shape parameter of the gamma distribution describing spatial variability of storage capacity; and simple measures of the seasonality of mean precipitation intensity, storm arrival rate, and potential evapotranspiration. The hypothesis is tested in an application of the model to the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, with no calibration. Study area averages of runoff and evapotranspiration, based on observations, are 263 mm and 728 mm, respectively; the model yields corresponding estimates of 250 mm and 741 mm, respectively, and explains 88% of the geographical variance of observed runoff within the study region. The differences between modeled and observed runoff can be explained by uncertainties in the model inputs and in the observed runoff. In the humid (index of dryness <1) parts of the study area, the dominant factor producing runoff is the excess of annual precipitation over annual potential evapotranspiration, but runoff caused by variability of supply and demand over time is also significant; in the arid (index of dryness >1) parts, all of the runoff is caused by variability

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, Heikki; Seitola, Teija; Silén, Johan; Räisänen, Jouni

2016-11-01

A performance expectation is that Earth system models simulate well the climate mean state and the climate variability. To test this expectation, we decompose two 20th century reanalysis data sets and 12 CMIP5 model simulations for the years 1901-2005 of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature using randomised multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA). Due to the relatively short time span, we concentrate on the representation of multi-annual variability which the RMSSA method effectively captures as separate and mutually orthogonal spatio-temporal components. This decomposition is a unique way to separate statistically significant quasi-periodic oscillations from one another in high-dimensional data sets.The main results are as follows. First, the total spectra for the two reanalysis data sets are remarkably similar in all timescales, except that the spectral power in ERA-20C is systematically slightly higher than in 20CR. Apart from the slow components related to multi-decadal periodicities, ENSO oscillations with approximately 3.5- and 5-year periods are the most prominent forms of variability in both reanalyses. In 20CR, these are relatively slightly more pronounced than in ERA-20C. Since about the 1970s, the amplitudes of the 3.5- and 5-year oscillations have increased, presumably due to some combination of forced climate change, intrinsic low-frequency climate variability, or change in global observing network. Second, none of the 12 coupled climate models closely reproduce all aspects of the reanalysis spectra, although some models represent many aspects well. For instance, the GFDL-ESM2M model has two nicely separated ENSO periods although they are relatively too prominent as compared with the reanalyses. There is an extensive Supplement and YouTube videos to illustrate the multi-annual variability of the data sets.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of

An annual plant growth proxy in the Mojave Desert using MODIS-EVI data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, C.S.A.; Thomas, K.A.

2008-01-01

In the arid Mojave Desert, the phenological response of vegetation is largely dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall, and maps of annual plant cover at any one point in time can vary widely. Our study developed relative annual plant growth models as proxies for annual plant cover using metrics that captured phenological variability in Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) satellite images. We used landscape phenologies revealed in MODIS data together with ecological knowledge of annual plant seasonality to develop a suite of metrics to describe annual growth on a yearly basis. Each of these metrics was applied to temporally-composited MODIS-EVI images to develop a relative model of annual growth. Each model was evaluated by testing how well it predicted field estimates of annual cover collected during 2003 and 2005 at the Mojave National Preserve. The best performing metric was the spring difference metric, which compared the average of three spring MODIS-EVI composites of a given year to that of 2002, a year of record drought. The spring difference metric showed correlations with annual plant cover of R2 = 0.61 for 2005 and R 2 = 0.47 for 2003. Although the correlation is moderate, we consider it supportive given the characteristics of the field data, which were collected for a different study in a localized area and are not ideal for calibration to MODIS pixels. A proxy for annual growth potential was developed from the spring difference metric of 2005 for use as an environmental data layer in desert tortoise habitat modeling. The application of the spring difference metric to other imagery years presents potential for other applications such as fuels, invasive species, and dust-emission monitoring in the Mojave Desert.

An Annual Plant Growth Proxy in the Mojave Desert Using MODIS-EVI Data.

PubMed

Wallace, Cynthia S A; Thomas, Kathryn A

2008-12-03

In the arid Mojave Desert, the phenological response of vegetation is largely dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall, and maps of annual plant cover at any one point in time can vary widely. Our study developed relative annual plant growth models as proxies for annual plant cover using metrics that captured phenological variability in Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) satellite images. We used landscape phenologies revealed in MODIS data together with ecological knowledge of annual plant seasonality to develop a suite of metrics to describe annual growth on a yearly basis. Each of these metrics was applied to temporally-composited MODIS-EVI images to develop a relative model of annual growth. Each model was evaluated by testing how well it predicted field estimates of annual cover collected during 2003 and 2005 at the Mojave National Preserve. The best performing metric was the spring difference metric, which compared the average of three spring MODIS-EVI composites of a given year to that of 2002, a year of record drought. The spring difference metric showed correlations with annual plant cover of R² = 0.61 for 2005 and R² = 0.47 for 2003. Although the correlation is moderate, we consider it supportive given the characteristics of the field data, which were collected for a different study in a localized area and are not ideal for calibration to MODIS pixels. A proxy for annual growth potential was developed from the spring difference metric of 2005 for use as an environmental data layer in desert tortoise habitat modeling. The application of the spring difference metric to other imagery years presents potential for other applications such as fuels, invasive species, and dust-emission monitoring in the Mojave Desert.

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

DOE PAGES

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

2016-11-16

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Juergen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.;

2015 Annual Disability Statistics Compendium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houtenville, Andrew J.; Brucker, Debra L.; Lauer, Eric A.

2016-01-01

The "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium" is a publication of statistics about people with disabilities and about the government programs which serve them. It is modeled after the "Statistical Abstracts of the United States," published yearly by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The "Compendium" is designed to…

2014 Annual Disability Statistics Compendium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houtenville, Andrew J.; Brucker, Debra L.; Lauer, Eric A.

2014-01-01

The "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium" is a publication of statistics about people with disabilities and about the government programs which serve them. It is modeled after the "Statistical Abstracts of the United States," published yearly by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The "Compendium" is designed to…

Sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics of the surface air temperature annual cycle to variations in annual mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Guseva, M. S.

2006-05-01

The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958 1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860 2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their

Dimethylsulfide Chemistry: Annual, Seasonal, and Spatial Impacts on Sulfate

EPA Science Inventory

We incorporated oceanic emissions and atmospheric chemistry of dimethylsulfide (DMS) into the hemispheric Community Multiscale Air Quality model and performed annual model simulations without and with DMS chemistry. The model without DMS chemistry predicts higher concentrations o...

Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

PubMed

Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

2014-01-01

Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...

2017-06-08

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less

CASSIA--a dynamic model for predicting intra-annual sink demand and interannual growth variation in Scots pine.

PubMed

Schiestl-Aalto, Pauliina; Kulmala, Liisa; Mäkinen, Harri; Nikinmaa, Eero; Mäkelä, Annikki

2015-04-01

The control of tree growth vs environment by carbon sources or sinks remains unresolved although it is widely studied. This study investigates growth of tree components and carbon sink-source dynamics at different temporal scales. We constructed a dynamic growth model 'carbon allocation sink source interaction' (CASSIA) that calculates tree-level carbon balance from photosynthesis, respiration, phenology and temperature-driven potential structural growth of tree organs and dynamics of stored nonstructural carbon (NSC) and their modifying influence on growth. With the model, we tested hypotheses that sink demand explains the intra-annual growth dynamics of the meristems, and that the source supply is further needed to explain year-to-year growth variation. The predicted intra-annual dimensional growth of shoots and needles and the number of cells in xylogenesis phases corresponded with measurements, whereas NSC hardly limited the growth, supporting the first hypothesis. Delayed GPP influence on potential growth was necessary for simulating the yearly growth variation, indicating also at least an indirect source limitation. CASSIA combines seasonal growth and carbon balance dynamics with long-term source dynamics affecting growth and thus provides a first step to understanding the complex processes regulating intra- and interannual growth and sink-source dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Effects of rainfall seasonality and soil moisture capacity on mean annual water balance for Australian catchments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Potter, N.J.; Zhang, L.; Milly, P.C.D.; McMahon, T.A.; Jakeman, A.J.

2005-01-01

An important factor controlling catchment‐scale water balance is the seasonal variation of climate. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the seasonal distributions of water and energy, and their interactions with the soil moisture store, on mean annual water balance in Australia at catchment scales using a stochastic model of soil moisture balance with seasonally varying forcing. The rainfall regime at 262 catchments around Australia was modeled as a Poisson process with the mean storm arrival rate and the mean storm depth varying throughout the year as cosine curves with annual periods. The soil moisture dynamics were represented by use of a single, finite water store having infinite infiltration capacity, and the potential evapotranspiration rate was modeled as an annual cosine curve. The mean annual water budget was calculated numerically using a Monte Carlo simulation. The model predicted that for a given level of climatic aridity the ratio of mean annual evapotranspiration to rainfall was larger where the potential evapotranspiration and rainfall were in phase, that is, in summer‐dominant rainfall catchments, than where they were out of phase. The observed mean annual evapotranspiration ratios have opposite results. As a result, estimates of mean annual evapotranspiration from the model compared poorly with observational data. Because the inclusion of seasonally varying forcing alone was not sufficient to explain variability in the mean annual water balance, other catchment properties may play a role. Further analysis showed that the water balance was highly sensitive to the catchment‐scale soil moisture capacity. Calibrations of this parameter indicated that infiltration‐excess runoff might be an important process, especially for the summer‐dominant rainfall catchments; most similar studies have shown that modeling of infiltration‐excess runoff is not required at the mean annual timescale.

ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Chunjing; Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Aurela, Mika; Bernhofer, Christian; Brümmer, Christian; Bret-Harte, Syndonia; Chu, Housen; Chen, Jiquan; Desai, Ankur R.; Dušek, Jiří; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Fortuniak, Krzysztof; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Friborg, Thomas; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Gogo, Sébastien; Grünwald, Thomas; Hansen, Birger U.; Holl, David; Humphreys, Elyn; Hurkuck, Miriam; Kiely, Gerard; Klatt, Janina; Kutzbach, Lars; Largeron, Chloé; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lund, Magnus; Lafleur, Peter M.; Li, Xuefei; Mammarella, Ivan; Merbold, Lutz; Nilsson, Mats B.; Olejnik, Janusz; Ottosson-Löfvenius, Mikaell; Oechel, Walter; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peichl, Matthias; Pirk, Norbert; Peltola, Olli; Pawlak, Włodzimierz; Rasse, Daniel; Rinne, Janne; Shaver, Gaius; Schmid, Hans Peter; Sottocornola, Matteo; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Sachs, Torsten; Urbaniak, Marek; Zona, Donatella; Ziemblinska, Klaudia

2018-02-01

Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

Dynamics of upwelling annual cycle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Chiao; Jin, Fei-Fei; Wu, Chau-Ron; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-04-01

The annual upwelling is an important component of the equatorial Atlantic annual cycle. A simple theory is proposed using the framework of Zebiak-Cane (ZC) ocean model for insights into the dynamics of the upwelling annual cycle. It is demonstrated that in the Atlantic equatorial region this upwelling is dominated by Ekman processing in the west, whereas in the east it is primarily owing to shoaling and deepening of the thermocline resulting from equatorial mass meridional recharge/discharge and zonal redistribution processes associated with wind-driven equatorial ocean waves. This wind-driven wave upwelling plays an important role in the development of the annual cycle in the sea surface temperature of the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Atlantic.

Implications for water use of a shift from annual to perennial crops - A stochastic modelling approach based on a trait meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Brunsell, Nathaniel

2017-04-01

The projected population growth and changes in climate and dietary habits will further increase the pressure on water resources globally. Within precision farming, a host of technical solutions has been developed to reduce water consumption for agricultural uses. The next frontier for a more sustainable agriculture is the combination of reduced water requirements with enhanced ecosystem services. Currently, staple grains are obtained from annuals crops. A shift from annual to perennial crops has been suggested as a way to enhance ecosystem services. In fact, perennial plants, with their continuous soil cover and the higher allocation of resources to the below ground, contribute to the reduction of soil erosion and nutrient losses, while enhancing carbon sequestration in the root zone. Nevertheless, the net effect of a shift to perennial crops on water use for agriculture is still unknown, despite its relevance for the sustainability of such a shift. We explore here the implications for water management at the field- to farm-scale of a shift from annual to perennial crops, under rainfed and irrigated agriculture. A probabilistic description of the soil water balance and crop development is employed to quantify water requirements and yields and their inter-annual variability, as a function of rainfall patterns, soil and crop features. Optimal irrigation strategies are thus defined in terms of maximization of yield and minimization of required irrigation volumes and their inter-annual variability. The probabilistic model is parameterized based on an extensive meta-analysis of traits of co-generic annual and perennial species to explore the consequences for water requirements of shifting from annual to perennial crops under current and future climates. We show that the larger and more developed roots of perennial crops may allow a better exploitation of soil water resources and a reduction of yield variability with respect to annual species. At the same time, perennial

Clinical Investigation Program: Annual Progress Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-30

Academy of Surgical Research, Chicago, Illinois; Yucatan Miniature Swine as a Model System for the Studyt of Vocal Fold Vibratory Function; 6th Annual...34(14)e". (15) Study Objective: Compare two enteral formulas in respect to nutritional aspects. (16) Technical Approach: Protocol will take place in

Evaluating Multiple Imputation Models for the Southern Annual Forest Inventory

Treesearch

Gregory A. Reams; Joseph M. McCollum

1999-01-01

The USDA Forest Service's Southern Research Station is implementing an annualized forest survey in thirteen states. The sample design is a systematic sample of five interpenetrating grids (panels), where each panel is measured sequentially. For example, panel one information is collected in year one, and panel five in year five. The area representative and time...

Annual Report, 1986. Southern Coalition for Educational Equity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

David, Jane L.

This annual report summarizes the work and progress of programs which promote effective education in 11 Southern states. Working cooperatively with other groups, this advocacy organization has developed a model for putting effective schools research into practice. The Effective Schools Model has been accepted for use by the New Orleans Public…

Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jiancang; Jiang, Changsheng

2012-02-01

The Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency in China is held by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) in order to provide one-year earthquake predictions over most China. In these predictions, regions of concern are denoted together with the corresponding magnitude range of the largest earthquake expected during the next year. Evaluating the performance of these earthquake predictions is rather difficult, especially for regions that are of no concern, because they are made on arbitrary regions with flexible magnitude ranges. In the present study, the gambling score is used to evaluate the performance of these earthquake predictions. Based on a reference model, this scoring method rewards successful predictions and penalizes failures according to the risk (probability of being failure) that the predictors have taken. Using the Poisson model, which is spatially inhomogeneous and temporally stationary, with the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitudes as the reference model, we evaluate the CEA predictions based on 1) a partial score for evaluating whether issuing the alarmed regions is based on information that differs from the reference model (knowledge of average seismicity level) and 2) a complete score that evaluates whether the overall performance of the prediction is better than the reference model. The predictions made by the Annual Consultation Meetings on Earthquake Tendency from 1990 to 2003 are found to include significant precursory information, but the overall performance is close to that of the reference model.

Annual research briefs, 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

1990-01-01

This report contains the 1989 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows of the Center for Turbulence Research. It is intended as a year end report to NASA, Ames Research Center which supports this group through core funding and by making available physical and intellectual resources. The Center for Turbulence Research is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flows; its objectives are to simulate advances in the physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control. The reports appearing in the following pages are grouped in the general areas of modeling, experimental research, theory, simulation and numerical methods, and compressible and reacting flows.

The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.

1995-01-01

The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

How Ocean Color Influences the Interplay Between Annual and Interannual Tropical Pacific Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-12-01

While the basic mechanisms responsible for ENSO have long been known, many details still evade our understanding. Since the behavior of the real climate system appears to be highly sensitive to such details, however, our ability to model, let alone predict it with any confidence has so far been rather restricted. Not only can small perturbations in many state variables lead to strongly amplified responses, but also do spatial and temporal scales of variability rarely occur in isolation from each other. Both points are born out in the study by Anderson et al. (2009), who removed surface chlorophyll in different regions of the tropical (but mostly off-equatorial) Pacific in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice model. Different removal patterns lead to large differences in the amplitudes of both ENSO and the equatorial annual cycle. Anderson et al.’s analysis focuses on ENSO and reveals that the transmission of off-equatorial perturbations to the equator happens mainly through a changed atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Here, we analyze the same data with respect to the annual cycle and how it interacts with ENSO. Guilyardi (2006) reports that observations and models alike show a zero-sum-type behavior of annual and ENSO-scale variability; increased spectral power in the annual band means decreased power in the ENSO band and vice versa. This is not the case for the different patterns of chlorophyll removal in our model, and hence it appears that this removal changes a fundamental part of its mean state. The dynamics of the annual cycle are likely influenced by oceanic meridional temperature advection, which provides another possible route for off-to-equatorial signal propagation. A common aspect of the tropical annual cycle in most coupled climate models is the presence of a double ITCZ instead of a single north-shifted one. Even though this appears to be unrelated to (albeit influenced by) the changes in ocean color, our model exhibits a much improved

Nongrowing season methane emissions-a significant component of annual emissions across northern ecosystems.

PubMed

Treat, Claire C; Bloom, A Anthony; Marushchak, Maija E

2018-03-22

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a greenhouse gas, and occur extensively in the northern hemisphere. Large discrepancies remain between "bottom-up" and "top-down" estimates of northern CH 4 emissions. To explore whether these discrepancies are due to poor representation of nongrowing season CH 4 emissions, we synthesized nongrowing season and annual CH 4 flux measurements from temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands. Median nongrowing season wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g/m 2 in bogs to 5.2 g/m 2 in marshes and were dependent on moisture, vegetation, and permafrost. Annual wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g m -2  year -1 in tundra bogs to 78 g m -2  year -1 in temperate marshes. Uplands varied from CH 4 sinks to CH 4 sources with a median annual flux of 0.0 ± 0.2 g m -2  year -1 . The measured fraction of annual CH 4 emissions during the nongrowing season (observed: 13% to 47%) was significantly larger than that was predicted by two process-based model ensembles, especially between 40° and 60°N (modeled: 4% to 17%). Constraining the model ensembles with the measured nongrowing fraction increased total nongrowing season and annual CH 4 emissions. Using this constraint, the modeled nongrowing season wetland CH 4 flux from >40° north was 6.1 ± 1.5 Tg/year, three times greater than the nongrowing season emissions of the unconstrained model ensemble. The annual wetland CH 4 flux was 37 ± 7 Tg/year from the data-constrained model ensemble, 25% larger than the unconstrained ensemble. Considering nongrowing season processes is critical for accurately estimating CH 4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems, and necessary for constraining the role of wetland emissions in a warming climate. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

3rd Annual Disruptive Technology Conference

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-07

Innosight LLC 2 The MP3 revolution 1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 15% 3% -7% -7% ?? Annual Growth in CD sales ($) Source: RIAA Web Site; Innosight Analysis © 2006...Innovation is More Than Technology MinuteClinic: New business model iTunes : New service Dell: New process © 2006 Innosight LLC 5 Sustaining versus

Dimethylsulfide chemistry: annual, seasonal, and spatial impacts on SO_4^(2-)

EPA Science Inventory

We incorporated oceanic emissions and atmospheric chemistry of dimethylsulfide (DMS) into the hemispheric Community Multiscale Air Quality model and performed annual model simulations without and with DMS chemistry. The model without DMS chemistry predicts higher concentrations o...

Remote Sensing based modelling of Annual Surface Mass Balances of Chhota Shigiri Glacier, Western Himalayas, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrasekharan, Anita; Ramsankaran, Raaj

2017-04-01

The current study aims at modelling glacier mass balances over Chhota Shigiri glacier (32.28o N; 77.58° E) in Himachal Pradesh, India using the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) gradient approach proposed by Rabatel et al. (2005). The model requires yearly ELA, average mass balance and mass balance gradient to estimate annual mass balance of a glacier which can be obtained either through field measurements or remote sensing observations. However, in view of the general scenario of lack of field data for Himalayan glaciers, in this study the model has been applied only using the inputs derived through multi-temporal satellite remote sensing observations thus eliminating the need for any field measurements. Preliminary analysis show that the obtained results are comparable with the observed field mass balance. The results also demonstrate that this approach with remote sensing inputs has potential to be used for glacier mass balance estimations provided good quality multi-temporal remote sensing dataset are available.

Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

2006-01-01

In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

The topographic distribution of annual incoming solar radiation in the Rio Grande River basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubayah, R.; Van Katwijk, V.

1992-01-01

We model the annual incoming solar radiation topoclimatology for the Rio Grande River basin in Colorado, U.S.A. Hourly pyranometer measurements are combined with satellite reflectance data and 30-m digital elevation models within a topographic solar radiation algorithm. Our results show that there is large spatial variability within the basin, even at an annual integration length, but the annual, basin-wide mean is close to that measured by the pyranometers. The variance within 16 sq km and 100 sq km regions is a linear function of the average slope in the region, suggesting a possible parameterization for sub-grid-cell variability.

Annual Research Briefs, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

1993-01-01

This report contains the 1992 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research. Considerable effort was focused on the large eddy simulation technique for computing turbulent flows. This increased activity has been inspired by the recent predictive successes of the dynamic subgrid scale modeling procedure which was introduced during the 1990 Summer Program. Several Research Fellows and students are presently engaged in both the development of subgrid scale models and their applications to complex flows. The first group of papers in this report contain the findings of these studies. They are followed by reports grouped in the general areas of modeling, turbulence physics, and turbulent reacting flows. The last contribution in this report outlines the progress made on the development of the CTR post-processing facility.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Systems analysis techniques for annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baylin, F.

1980-07-01

Community-scale annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems are options for building heat and cooling. A variety of approaches are feasible in modeling ACTES solar systems. The key parameter in such efforts, average collector efficiency, is examined, followed by several approaches for simple and effective modeling. Methods are also examined for modeling building loads for structures based on both conventional and passive architectural designs. Two simulation models for sizing solar heating systems with annual storage are presented. Validation is presented by comparison with the results of a study of seasonal storage systems based on SOLANSIM, an hour-by-hour simulation. These models are presently used to examine the economic trade-off between collector field area and storage capacity. Programs directed toward developing other system components such as improved tanks and solar ponds or design tools for ACTES solar systems are examined.

Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ockenden, Mary C.; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith J.; Collins, Adrian L.; Evans, Robert; Falloon, Peter D.; Forber, Kirsty J.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Hollaway, Michael J.; Kahana, Ron; Macleod, Christopher J. A.; Villamizar, Martha L.; Wearing, Catherine; Withers, Paul J. A.; Zhou, Jian G.; Benskin, Clare McW. H.; Burke, Sean; Cooper, Richard J.; Freer, Jim E.; Haygarth, Philip M.

2017-12-01

Excess nutrients in surface waters, such as phosphorus (P) from agriculture, result in poor water quality, with adverse effects on ecological health and costs for remediation. However, understanding and prediction of P transfers in catchments have been limited by inadequate data and over-parameterised models with high uncertainty. We show that, with high temporal resolution data, we are able to identify simple dynamic models that capture the P load dynamics in three contrasting agricultural catchments in the UK. For a flashy catchment, a linear, second-order (two pathways) model for discharge gave high simulation efficiencies for short-term storm sequences and was useful in highlighting uncertainties in out-of-bank flows. A model with non-linear rainfall input was appropriate for predicting seasonal or annual cumulative P loads where antecedent conditions affected the catchment response. For second-order models, the time constant for the fast pathway varied between 2 and 15 h for all three catchments and for both discharge and P, confirming that high temporal resolution data are necessary to capture the dynamic responses in small catchments (10-50 km2). The models led to a better understanding of the dominant nutrient transfer modes, which will be helpful in determining phosphorus transfers following changes in precipitation patterns in the future.

Simulation of annual plankton productivity cycle in the Black Sea by a one-dimensional physical-biological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oguz, Temel; Ducklow, Hugh; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Tugrul, Suleyman; Nezlin, Nikolai P.; Unluata, Umit

1996-07-01

The annual cycle of the plankton dynamics in the central Black Sea is studied by a one-dimensional vertically resolved physical-biological upper ocean model, coupled with the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The biological model involves interactions between the inorganic nitrogen (nitrate, ammonium), phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton biomasses, and detritus. Given a knowledge of physical forcing, the model simulates main observed seasonal and vertical characteristic features, in particular, formation of the cold intermediate water mass and yearly evolution of the upper layer stratification, the annual cycle of production with the fall and the spring blooms, and the subsurface phytoplankton maximum layer in summer, as well as realistic patterns of particulate organic carbon and nitrogen. The computed seasonal cycles of the chlorophyll and primary production distributions over the euphotic layer compare reasonably well with the data. Initiation of the spring bloom is shown to be critically dependent on the water column stability. It commences as soon as the convective mixing process weakens and before the seasonal stratification of surface waters begins to develop. It is followed by a weaker phytoplankton production at the time of establishment of the seasonal thermocline in April. While summer nutrient concentrations in the mixed layer are low enough to limit production, the layer between the thermocline and the base of the euphotic zone provides sufficient light and nutrient to support subsurface phytoplankton development. The autumn bloom takes place sometime between October and December depending on environmental conditions. In the case of weaker grazing pressure to control the growth rate, the autumn bloom shifts to December-January and emerges as the winter bloom, or, in some cases, is connected with the spring bloom to form one unified continuous bloom structure during the January-March period. These bloom structures are similar to

Annual State of Connecticut Obstetrics and Gynecology Resident Research Day.

PubMed

Seagle, Brandon-Luke L; Ballard, Jennifer; Kakar, Freshta; Panarelli, Erin; Samuelson, Robert; Shahabi, Shohreh

2015-01-01

To increase opportunities for Obstetrics and Gynecology(Ob/Gyn) residents to present their research, an Annual State of Connecticut Ob/Gyn Resident Research Day (RRD) was created. At the first annual RRD, 33 residents, representing five of six Connecticut Ob/Gyn residency programs, presented 39 poster and eight oral presentations. RRD evaluators rated the overall symposium and the quality of resident oral and poster presentations as either "excellent" or "above average." Residency program directors reported that the symposium was "very helpful" for evidencing resident scholarship as required by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). Surveyed residents reported that the symposium promoted their research and was a valuable investment of their time. An annual specialty-specific, statewide RRD was created, experienced good participation, and was well evaluated. The annual, statewide Ob/Gyn RRD may serve as a model for development of other specialty-specific, statewide RRD events.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal

PubMed Central

Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-01-01

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark–release–recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79–91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. PMID:27440662

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-07-27

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. © 2016 The Author(s).

Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahangir, Misbah; Maria Ali, Syeda; Khalid, Bushra

2016-01-01

Climate change is a key emerging threat to the global environment. It imposes long lasting impacts both at regional and national level. In the recent era, global warming and extreme temperatures have drawn great interest to the scientific community. As in a past century considerable increase in global surface temperatures have been observed and predictions revealed that it will continue in the future. In this regard, current study mainly focused on analysis of regional climatic change (annual minimum temperature trends and its correlation with land surface temperatures in the early 21st century in Punjab) for a period of 1979-2013. The projected model data European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) has been used for eight Tehsils of Punjab i.e., annual minimum temperatures and annual seasonal temperatures. Trend analysis of annual minimum and annual seasonal temperature in (Khushab, Noorpur, Sargodha, Bhalwal, Sahiwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali and Chinoit) tehsils of Punjab was carried out by Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data was used in comparison with Model data for the month of May from the years 2000, 2009 and 2010. Results showed that no significant trends were observed in annual minimum temperature. A significant change was observed in Noorpur, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal, Chinoit and Sargodha tehsils during spring season, which indicated that this particular season was a transient period of time.

Trends and annual cycles in soundings of Arctic tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, Bo; Jepsen, Nis; Kivi, Rigel; Hansen, Georg; Larsen, Niels; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik

2017-08-01

Ozone soundings from nine Nordic stations have been homogenized and interpolated to standard pressure levels. The different stations have very different data coverage; the longest period with data is from the end of the 1980s to 2014. At each pressure level the homogenized ozone time series have been analysed with a model that includes both low-frequency variability in the form of a polynomial, an annual cycle with harmonics, the possibility for low-frequency variability in the annual amplitude and phasing, and either white noise or noise given by a first-order autoregressive process. The fitting of the parameters is performed with a Bayesian approach not only giving the mean values but also confidence intervals. The results show that all stations agree on a well-defined annual cycle in the free troposphere with a relatively confined maximum in the early summer. Regarding the low-frequency variability, it is found that Scoresbysund, Ny Ålesund, Sodankylä, Eureka, and Ørland show similar, significant signals with a maximum near 2005 followed by a decrease. This change is characteristic for all pressure levels in the free troposphere. A significant change in the annual cycle was found for Ny Ålesund, Scoresbysund, and Sodankylä. The changes at these stations are in agreement with the interpretation that the early summer maximum is appearing earlier in the year. The results are shown to be robust to the different settings of the model parameters such as the order of the polynomial, number of harmonics in the annual cycle, and the type of noise.

[Rapid prediction of annual ring density of Paulownia elongate standing tress using near infrared spectroscopy].

PubMed

Jiang, Ze-Hui; Wang, Yu-Rong; Fei, Ben-Hua; Fu, Feng; Hse, Chung-Yun

2007-06-01

Rapid prediction of annual ring density of Paulownia elongate standing trees using near infrared spectroscopy was studied. It was non-destructive to collect the samples for trees, that is, the wood cores 5 mm in diameter were unthreaded at the breast height of standing trees instead of fallen trees. Then the spectra data were collected by autoscan method of NIR. The annual ring density was determined by mercury immersion. And the models were made and analyzed by the partial least square (PLS) and full cross validation in the 350-2 500 nm wavelength range. The results showed that high coefficients were obtained between the annual ring and the NIR fitted data. The correlation coefficient of prediction model was 0.88 and 0.91 in the middle diameter and bigger diameter, respectively. Moreover, high coefficients of correlation were also obtained between annual ring density laboratory-determined and the NIR fitted data in the middle diameter of Paulownia elongate standing trees, the correlation coefficient of calibration model and prediction model were 0.90 and 0.83, and the standard errors of calibration (SEC) and standard errors of prediction(SEP) were 0.012 and 0.016, respectively. The method can simply, rapidly and non-destructively estimate the annual ring density of the Paulownia elongate standing trees close to the cutting age.

Assumptions to the annual energy outlook 1999 : with projections to 2020

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-12-16

This paper presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to : generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 19991 (AEO99), including general features of : the model structure, assumptions concerning energy ...

Assumptions to the annual energy outlook 2000 : with projections to 2020

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This paper presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to : generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20001 (AEO2000), including general features of : the model structure, assumptions concerning energ...

Assumptions to the annual energy outlook 2001 : with projections to 2020

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to : generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20011 (AEO2001), including general features of : the model structure, assumptions concerning ener...

Assumptions for the annual energy outlook 2003 : with projections to 2025

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to : generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20031 (AEO2003), including general features of : the model structure, assumptions concerning ener...

Bayesian Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Nigeria, Including Annual Deworming Requirements

PubMed Central

Oluwole, Akinola S.; Ekpo, Uwem F.; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M.; Olamiju, Francisca O.; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J.; Braide, Eka I.; Mafiana, Chiedu F.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-01-01

Background The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. Methodology STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. Principal Findings We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. Conclusions/Significance The predictive risk maps and estimated

Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements.

PubMed

Oluwole, Akinola S; Ekpo, Uwem F; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M; Olamiju, Francisca O; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J; Braide, Eka I; Mafiana, Chiedu F; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-04-01

The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control

The Virtual Extension Annual Conference: Addressing Contemporary Professional Development Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franz, Nancy K.; Brekke, Robin; Coates, Deb; Kress, Cathann; Hlas, Julie

2014-01-01

Extension systems are experimenting with new models for conducting professional development to enhance staff competence and other returns on professional development investments. The ISUEO virtual annual conference provides a successful flipped classroom model of asynchronous and synchronous learning events for conducting an Extension annual…

Effect of inter- and intra-annual thermohaline variability on acoustic propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Peter C.; McDonald, Colleen M.; Kucukosmanoglu, Murat; Judono, Albert; Margolina, Tetyana; Fan, Chenwu

2017-05-01

This paper is to answer the question "How can inter- and intra-annual variability in the ocean be leveraged by the submarine Force?" through quantifying inter- and intra-annual variability in (T, S) fields and in turn underwater acoustic characteristics such as transmission loss, signal excess, and range of detection. The Navy's Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) is the climatological monthly mean data and represents mean annual variability. An optimal spectral decomposition method is used to produce a synoptic monthly gridded (SMG) (T, S) dataset for the world oceans with 1° ×1° horizontal resolution, 28 vertical levels (surface to 3,000 m depth), monthly time increment from January 1945 to December 2014 now available at the NOAA/NCEI website: http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgibin/iso?id=gov.noaa.nodc:0140938. The sound velocity decreases from 1945 to 1975 and increases afterwards due to global climate change. Effect of the inter- and intra-annual (T, S) variability on acoustic propagation in the Yellow Sea is investigated using a well-developed acoustic model (Bellhop) in frequencies from 3.5 kHz to 5 kHz with sound velocity profile (SVP) calculated from GDEM and SMG datasets, various bottom types (silty clay, fine sand, gravelly mud, sandy mud, and cobble or gravel) from the NAVOCEANO`s High Frequency Environmental Algorithms (HFEVA), source and receiver depths. Acoustic propagation ranges are extended drastically due to the inter-annual variability in comparison with the climatological SVP (from GDEM). Submarines' vulnerability of detection as its depth varies and avoidance of short acoustic range due to inter-annual variability are also discussed.

PEER Annual Meeting | Events

Science.gov Websites

window. 2018 PEER Annual Meeting, Jan 18-19, 2018 in Berkeley, CA 2016 PEER Annual Meeting, Jan 28-29 home about peer news events research products laboratories publications nisee b.i.p. members education FAQs links Events Calendar of PEER and Other Events PEER Events Archive PEER Annual Meeting 2009

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, Olga; Waugh, D.; Stolarski, R.; Oman, L.

2016-01-01

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus

Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, M.E.; Jobson, H.E.

1982-01-01

Mean annual evaporation estimates were determined for 30 lakes by use of a numerical model (Morton, 1979) and by use of an evaporation map prepared by the U.S. Weather Service (Kohler et al., 1959). These estimates were compared to the reported value of evaporation determined from measurements on each lake. Various lengths of observation and methods of measurement were used among the 30 lakes. The evaporation map provides annual evaporation estimates which are more consistent with observations than those determined by use of the numerical model. The map cannot provide monthly estimates, however, and is only available for the contiguous United States. The numerical model can provide monthly estimates for shallow lakes and is based on monthly observations of temperature, humidity, and sunshine duration.

The SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report

MedlinePlus

... Annual Data Report The SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report Statistics on donation and transplantation in the United ... US in 2015. The SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report SRTR/OPTN Annual Data Report Learn more from ...

Digital-map grids of mean-annual precipitation for 1961-90, and generalized skew coefficients of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, A.H.; Tortorelli, R.L.

1997-01-01

This digital report contains two digital-map grids of data that were used to develop peak-flow regression equations in Tortorelli, 1997, 'Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 97-4202. One data set is a grid of mean annual precipitation, in inches, based on the period 1961-90, for Oklahoma. The data set was derived from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) mean annual precipitation grid for the United States, developed by Daly, Neilson, and Phillips (1994, 'A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain:' Journal of Applied Meteorology, v. 33, no. 2, p. 140-158). The second data set is a grid of generalized skew coefficients of logarithms of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma streams less than or equal to 2,510 square miles in drainage area. This grid of skew coefficients is taken from figure 11 of Tortorelli and Bergman, 1985, 'Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 84-4358. To save disk space, the skew coefficient values have been multiplied by 100 and rounded to integers with two significant digits. The data sets are provided in an ASCII grid format.

Annual Research Briefs, 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The 1990 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulent Research (CTR) are included. It is intended primarily as a contractor report to NASA, Ames Research Center. In addition, numerous CTR Manuscript Reports were published last year. The purpose of the CTR Manuscript Series is to expedite the dissemination of research results by the CTR staff. The CTR is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flow; its objectives are to produce advances in physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control.

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ni; Gu, Lianhong; Black, T. Andrew; Wang, Li; Niu, Zheng

2015-11-01

Soil respiration (Rs), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual Rs at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest). A version of the Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best model from a range of models for annual Rs estimation based on the remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and root-zone soil moisture product derived from assimilation of the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer soil moisture products and a two-layer Palmer water balance model. We found that the Arrhenius-type function based on nighttime land surface temperature (LST-night) was the best model by comprehensively considering the model explanatory power and model complexity at the Missouri Ozark and BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir sites. In addition, a multicollinearity problem among LST-night, root-zone soil moisture, and plant photosynthesis factor was effectively avoided by selecting the LST-night-driven model. Cross validation showed that temporal variation in Rs was captured by the LST-night-driven model with a mean absolute error below 1 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 at both forest sites. An obvious overestimation that occurred in 2005 and 2007 at the Missouri Ozark site reduced the evaluation accuracy of cross validation because of summer drought. However, no significant difference was found between the Arrhenius-type function driven by LST-night and the function considering LST-night and root-zone soil moisture. This finding indicated that the contribution of soil moisture to Rs was relatively small at our multiyear data set. To predict intersite Rs, maximum leaf area index (LAImax) was used as an upscaling factor to calibrate the site-specific reference respiration

Model-independent comparison of annual modulation and total rate with direct detection experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahlhoefer, Felix; Reindl, Florian; Schäffner, Karoline; Schmidt-Hoberg, Kai; Wild, Sebastian

2018-05-01

The relative sensitivity of different direct detection experiments depends sensitively on the astrophysical distribution and particle physics nature of dark matter, prohibiting a model-independent comparison. The situation changes fundamentally if two experiments employ the same target material. We show that in this case one can compare measurements of an annual modulation and exclusion bounds on the total rate while making no assumptions on astrophysics and no (or only very general) assumptions on particle physics. In particular, we show that the dark matter interpretation of the DAMA/LIBRA signal can be conclusively tested with COSINUS, a future experiment employing the same target material. We find that if COSINUS excludes a dark matter scattering rate of about 0.01 kg‑1 days‑1 with an energy threshold of 1.8 keV and resolution of 0.2 keV, it will rule out all explanations of DAMA/LIBRA in terms of dark matter scattering off sodium and/or iodine.

Annual Research Briefs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

1997-01-01

This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

Annual costs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Finland during 1996–2006 and a prediction model for 2007–2030

PubMed Central

Herse, Fredrik; Kiljander, Toni; Lehtimäki, Lauri

2015-01-01

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major burden for the health care system, but the exact costs are difficult to estimate and there are insufficient data available on past and future time trends of COPD-related costs. Aims: The aim of the study was to calculate COPD-related costs in Finland during the years 1996–2006 and estimate future costs for the years 2007–2030. Methods: COPD-related direct and indirect costs in the public health care sector of the whole of Finland during the years 1996–2006 were retrieved from national registers. In addition, we made a mathematical prediction model on COPD costs for the years 2007–2030 on the basis of population projection and changes in smoking habits. Results: The total annual COPD-related costs amounted to about 100–110 million Euros in 1996–2006, with no obvious change, but there was a slight decrease in direct costs and an increase in indirect costs during these years. The estimation model predicted a 60% increase up to 166 million Euros in COPD-related annual costs by the year 2030. This is caused almost entirely by an increase in direct health care costs that reflect the predicted ageing of the Finnish population, as older age is a significant factor that increases the need for hospitalisation. Conclusions: The total annual COPD-related costs in Finland have been stable during the years 1996–2006, but if management strategies are not changed a significant increase in direct costs is expected by the year 2030 due to ageing of the population. PMID:25811648

Comprehensive Model of Annual Plankton Succession Based on the Whole-Plankton Time Series Approach

PubMed Central

Romagnan, Jean-Baptiste; Legendre, Louis; Guidi, Lionel; Jamet, Jean-Louis; Jamet, Dominique; Mousseau, Laure; Pedrotti, Maria-Luiza; Picheral, Marc; Gorsky, Gabriel; Sardet, Christian; Stemmann, Lars

2015-01-01

Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally. PMID:25780912

8th Annual Glycoscience Symposium: Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Azadi, Paratoo

2015-09-24

The Complex Carbohydrate Research Center (CCRC) of the University of Georgia holds a symposium yearly that highlights a broad range of carbohydrate research topics. The 8th Annual Georgia Glycoscience Symposium entitled “Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly” was held on April 7, 2014 at the CCRC. The focus of symposium was on the role of glycans in plant cell wall structure and synthesis. The goal was to have world leaders in conjunction with graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and research scientists to propose the newest plant cell wall models. The symposium program closely followed the DOE’s missionmore » and was specifically designed to highlight chemical and biochemical structures and processes important for the formation and modification of renewable plant cell walls which serve as the basis for biomaterial and biofuels. The symposium was attended by both senior investigators in the field as well as students including a total attendance of 103, which included 80 faculty/research scientists, 11 graduate students and 12 Postdoctoral students.« less

Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verdin, Kristine L.

2004-05-01

This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less

IBC’s 23rd Annual Antibody Engineering, 10th Annual Antibody Therapeutics International Conferences and the 2012 Annual Meeting of The Antibody Society

PubMed Central

Klöhn, Peter-Christian; Wuellner, Ulrich; Zizlsperger, Nora; Zhou, Yu; Tavares, Daniel; Berger, Sven; Zettlitz, Kirstin A.; Proetzel, Gabriele; Yong, May; Begent, Richard H.J.; Reichert, Janice M

2013-01-01

The 23rd Annual Antibody Engineering, 10th Annual Antibody Therapeutics international conferences, and the 2012 Annual Meeting of The Antibody Society, organized by IBC Life Sciences with contributions from The Antibody Society and two Scientific Advisory Boards, were held December 3–6, 2012 in San Diego, CA. The meeting drew over 800 participants who attended sessions on a wide variety of topics relevant to antibody research and development. As a prelude to the main events, a pre-conference workshop held on December 2, 2012 focused on intellectual property issues that impact antibody engineering. The Antibody Engineering Conference was composed of six sessions held December 3–5, 2012: (1) From Receptor Biology to Therapy; (2) Antibodies in a Complex Environment; (3) Antibody Targeted CNS Therapy: Beyond the Blood Brain Barrier; (4) Deep Sequencing in B Cell Biology and Antibody Libraries; (5) Systems Medicine in the Development of Antibody Therapies/Systematic Validation of Novel Antibody Targets; and (6) Antibody Activity and Animal Models. The Antibody Therapeutics conference comprised four sessions held December 4–5, 2012: (1) Clinical and Preclinical Updates of Antibody-Drug Conjugates; (2) Multifunctional Antibodies and Antibody Combinations: Clinical Focus; (3) Development Status of Immunomodulatory Therapeutic Antibodies; and (4) Modulating the Half-Life of Antibody Therapeutics. The Antibody Society’s special session on applications for recording and sharing data based on GIATE was held on December 5, 2012, and the conferences concluded with two combined sessions on December 5–6, 2012: (1) Development Status of Early Stage Therapeutic Antibodies; and (2) Immunomodulatory Antibodies for Cancer Therapy. PMID:23575266

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. (a) Procedures for determining the estimated annual energy consumption, the estimated annual operating costs, the energy efficiency ratings, and the efficacy...

The Annual Cycle of the Japan Sea Throughflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kida, S.; Qiu, B.; Yang, J.; Lin, X.

2016-02-01

The mechanism responsible for the annual cycle of the flows through the straits of Japan Sea is investigated using a two-layer model. Japan Sea is one of the marginal sea located in the western North Pacific that is separated from the Pacific by the islands of Japan. Three narrow and shallow straits, the Tsushima, Tsugaru, and Soya Straits, connect this sea towards the Pacific Ocean and Okhotsk Sea and observations show that the flow through these three straits vary annually with a maximum transport in summer-fall and a minimum transport in winter. The variability is large for Soya (north) and Tsushima (south) Straits but weak for the Tsugaru Strait (middle). We find the subpolar winds located to the north of Soya Strait to be the primary forcing agent of this annual cycle rather than the subtropical winds located to the east of Japan. The subpolar winds generate baroclinic Kelvin waves that perturb the sea surface height at the Soya Strait, cause barotropic adjustment to occur within the Japan Sea, and change the flow at the other straits. The shallow topography at the straits plays an important role. This mechanism explains why the annual cycle at the three straits occur almost synchronously. We also find the around-island integral constraint a useful tool for explaining how the magnitude of the annual cycle at the three straits are controlled. The theorem show the magnitude and direction of the flow controlled largely by the ratio of the meridional length of the two islands that is bounded by the three straits..

Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

2018-05-01

Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

47 annual records of allergenic fungi spore: predictive models from the NW Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Aira, M Jesus; Rodriguez-Rajo, F; Jato, Victoria

2008-01-01

An analysis was carried out of the atmospheric representivity of Cladosporium and Alternaria spores in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, registering mean annual concentrations in excess of 300,000 spores/m(3). During the main sporulation period, the highest average daily concentrations corresponded to Cladosporium herbarum type (1,197 spores/m(3)) while the highest daily value was 7,556 spores/m(3) (Cladosporium cladosporioides type). Alternaria only represents between 0.1-1% of the total spores identified. In these spore types, the intraday variation was more acute inland than along the coastline due to oceanic influence. In the predictive models proposed that use the meteorological parameters with which a higher correlation was obtained (mean and maximum temperature) as predictive variables, it was seen that the predicted values did not reveal any significant differences as compared to those observed in 2006, data that was only used for verification purposes.

The Medicare Annual Wellness Visit.

PubMed

Colburn, Jessica L; Nothelle, Stephanie

2018-02-01

The Medicare Annual Wellness Visit is an annual preventive health benefit, which was created in 2011 as part of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The visit provides an opportunity for clinicians to review preventive health recommendations and screen for geriatric syndromes. In this article, the authors review the requirements of the Annual Wellness Visit, discuss ways to use the Annual Wellness Visit to improve the care of geriatric patients, and provide suggestions for how to incorporate this benefit into a busy clinic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reading Ease of Bilingual Annual Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Courtis, John K.; Hassan, Salleh

2002-01-01

Examines reading ease between the English and Chinese versions of 65 corporate annual reports in Hong Kong and the English and Malay versions of 53 annual reports in Malaysia. Notes that the English passages in Malaysian annual reports are easier to read than the English passages in Hong Kong annual reports. Suggests that different language…

PEER Annual Meeting

Science.gov Websites

Annual Meeting Program is now posted. The meeting will open on Friday October 26th with a overview of available! Registration Now Open! Posted on August 23, 2012 by boss The 2012 PEER Annual Meeting is being attend. Register Now! The meeting will open on Friday October 26th with a overview of recent and ongoing

Idaho National Laboratory PCB Annual Document Log and Annual Records Report for calendar year 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Layton, Deborah L.

The requirements for the reporting of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-related activities are found in 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 761 Subpart J, "General Records and Reports." The PCB Annual Document Log is a detailed record of the PCB waste handling activities at the facility. The facility must prepare it each year by July 1 and maintain it at the facility for at least 3 years after the facility ceases using or storing PCBs and PCB items. While submittal of the PCB Annual Document Log to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is not required by regulation, EPA has verbally requestedmore » in telephone conversations that this report be submitted to them on an annual basis. The Annual Records are not required to be submitted to EPA and are not considered to be part of the Annual Document Log, but are included to provide the complete disposition history or status of all PCB activities during the year. The Annual Document Log section of this report (Section 2.0) meets the requirements of 40 CFR 761.180(a)(2), as applicable, while the Annual Records section (Section 3.0) meets the requirement of 40 CFR 761.180(a)(1).« less

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

Treesearch

J. H. Stagge; D. E. Rosenberg; R. J. DeRose; T. M. Rittenour

2018-01-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually...

Proceedings of the 4th Annual SCOLE Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr. (Compiler)

1988-01-01

This publication is a collection of papers presented at the Fourth Annual Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) Workshop held at the U.S.A.F. Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado, November 16, 1987. The papers address the modeling, systems identification, and control synthesis for the Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configuration.

Seasonal and inter-annual variation in ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, Janne; Li, Xuefei; Raivonen, Maarit; Peltola, Olli; Sallantaus, Tapani; Haapanala, Sami; Smolander, Sampo; Alekseychik, Pavel; Aurela, Mika; Korrensalo, Aino; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Vesala, Timo

2016-04-01

Northern wetlands are one of the major sources of atmospheric methane. We have measured ecosystem scale methane emissions from a boreal fen continuously since 2005. The site is an oligotrophic fen in boreal vegetation zone situated in Siikaneva wetland complex in Southern Finland. The mean annual temperature in the area is 3.3°C and total annual precipitation 710 mm. We have conducted the methane emission measurements by the eddy covariance method. Additionally we have measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat together with a suite of other environmental parameters. We have analyzed this data alongside with a model run with University of Helsinki methane model. The measured fluxes show generally highest methane emission in late summers coinciding with the highest temperatures in saturated peat zone. During winters the fluxes show small but detectable emission despite the snow and ice cover on the fen. More than 90% of the annual methane emission occurs in snow-free period. The methane emission and peat temperature are connected in exponential manner in seasonal scales, but methane emission does not show the expected behavior with water table. The lack of water table position dependence also contrasts with the spatial variation across microtopography. There is no systematic variation in sub-diurnal time scale. The general seasonal cycle in methane emission is captured well with the methane model. We will show how well the model reproduces the temperature and water table position dependencies observed. The annual methane emission is typically around 10 gC m-2. This is a significant part of the total carbon exchange between the fen and the atmosphere and about twice the estimated carbon loss by leaching from the fen area. The inter-annual variability in the methane emission is modest. The June-September methane emissions from different years, comprising most of the annual emission, correlates positively with peat temperature, but not with

Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation over Central Asia by CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Future changes in the annual cycle of the precipitation in central Asia (CA) were estimated based on the historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations, the historical (1979-1999) experiments showed that most models can capture the migration of rainfall centers, but remarkable discrepancies exist in the location and intensity of rainfall centers between simulations and observations. Considering the skill scores of precipitation and pattern correlations of circulations, which are closely related to the precipitation for each month, for the 25 models, the four best models (e.g., CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) with relatively good performance were selected. The four models' ensemble mean indicated that the migration and location of the precipitation centers were better reproduced, except the intensity of the centers was overestimated, compared with the result that only considered precipitation. Based on the four best models' ensemble mean under RCP8.5 scenarios, precipitation was projected to increase dramatically over most of the CA region in the boreal cold seasons (November, December, January, February, March, April and May) with the maximum in December in the end of twenty-first century (2079-2099), and several positive centers were located in the Pamirs Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains. By contrast, the precipitation changes were weak in the boreal warm seasons (June, July, August, September and October), with a wet center located in the northern Himalayas. Furthermore, there remain some uncertainties in the projected precipitation regions and periods obtained by comparing models' ensemble results of this paper and the results of previous studies. These uncertainties should be investigated in future work.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature, Tropospheric Humidity and Lapse Rate on the Annual Cycle of the Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, H.; Liu, W.

2000-01-01

The implication of this work will provide modeling study a surrogate of annual cycle of the greenhouse effect. For example, the model should be able to simulate the annual cycle before it can be used for global change study.

An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winstrup, M.; Svensson, A.; Rasmussen, S. O.; Winther, O.; Steig, E.; Axelrod, A.

2012-04-01

The temporal resolution of some ice cores is sufficient to preserve seasonal information in the ice core record. In such cases, annual layer counting represents one of the most accurate methods to produce a chronology for the core. Yet, manual layer counting is a tedious and sometimes ambiguous job. As reliable layer recognition becomes more difficult, a manual approach increasingly relies on human interpretation of the available data. Thus, much may be gained by an automated and therefore objective approach for annual layer identification in ice cores. We have developed a novel method for automated annual layer counting in ice cores, which relies on Bayesian statistics. It uses algorithms from the statistical framework of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), originally developed for use in machine speech recognition. The strength of this layer detection algorithm lies in the way it is able to imitate the manual procedures for annual layer counting, while being based on purely objective criteria for annual layer identification. With this methodology, it is possible to determine the most likely position of multiple layer boundaries in an entire section of ice core data at once. It provides a probabilistic uncertainty estimate of the resulting layer count, hence ensuring a proper treatment of ambiguous layer boundaries in the data. Furthermore multiple data series can be incorporated to be used at once, hence allowing for a full multi-parameter annual layer counting method similar to a manual approach. In this study, the automated layer counting algorithm has been applied to data from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland. The NGRIP ice core has very high temporal resolution with depth, and hence the potential to be dated by annual layer counting far back in time. In previous studies [Andersen et al., 2006; Svensson et al., 2008], manual layer counting has been carried out back to 60 kyr BP. A comparison between the counted annual layers based on the two approaches will be presented

Model of annual plants dynamics with facilitation and competition.

PubMed

Droz, Michel; Pękalski, Andrzej

2013-10-21

An individual-based model describing the dynamics of one type of annual plants is presented. We use Monte Carlo simulations where each plant has its own history and the interactions among plants are between nearest neighbours. The character of the interaction (positive or negative) depends on local conditions. The plants compete for two external resources-water and light. The amount of water and/or light a plant receives depends on the external factor but also on local arrangement. Survival, growth and seed production of plants are determined by how well their demands for the resources are met. The survival and seeds production tests have a probabilistic character, which makes the dynamics more realistic than by using a deterministic approach. There is a non-linear coupling between the external supplies. Water evaporates from the soil at a rate depending on constant evaporation rate, local conditions and the amount of light. We examine the dynamics of the plant population along two environmental gradients, allowing also for surplus of water and/or light. We show that the largest number of plants is when the demands for both resources are equal to the supplies. We estimate also the role of evaporation and we find that it depends on the situation. It could be negative, but sometimes it has a positive character. We show that the link between the type of interaction (positive or negative) and external conditions has a complex character. In general in favourable environment plants have a stronger tendency for competitive interactions, leading to mostly isolated plants. When the conditions are getting more difficult, cooperation becomes the dominant type of interactions and the plants grow in clusters. The type of plants-sun-loving or shade tolerating, plays also an important role. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimates of Annual Climatic Water Need in Introductory Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Currey, Donald R.

1976-01-01

This paper compares briefly, within the regional context of the western United States, several of the more readily adoptable models that are being used or could be used to provide estimates of annual climatic water need appropriate to macroscale applications in introductory geography courses. (Author)

A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Timothy Doak

1978-01-01

Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

The role of minerals and mean annual temperature on soil carbon accumulation: A modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

2016-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively cycling terrestrial C pool with mean residence times that can exceed 10,000 years. There is strong evidence suggesting that SOC dynamics depend on soil temperature and C inputs to soil through net primary production (NPP), but it is unclear what the relative importance of these factors is relative to SOC protection by minerals. Recent empirical studies have suggested that mineral protection explains more variation in SOC stock sizes and C respiration fluxes than does NPP or climate. Our previous modeling has demonstrated that representing the chemistry of mineral sorption in a microbially-explicit model affects the temperature sensitivity of SOC dynamics. We apply this modeling framework to interpret observations of SOC stocks, mineral surface availability, mean annual temperature (MAT), and NPP collected along a 4,000 km transect in South America. We use a Random Forest machine learning algorithm and regression to analyze our model output and the empirical data. This analysis shows that mineral surface availability is the dominant control over C respiration and SOC stock, and is substantially larger than the effects of belowground NPP. We further show that minerals interact with MAT to determine the observed range of SOC stocks along this transect in the present day, as well as projected SOC stocks under long-term warming. Our model-data comparison suggests that soil mineralogy and MAT will explain the majority of the spatial variation in SOC stock over decadal-to-millennial timescales. We extend the analysis of these interactions using the ACME Land Model (ALM) coupled with an explicit representation of microbes, minerals, and vertical transport of solutes and gases. The model results confirm the dominant effects of minerals on organic matter decomposition throughout the soil column.

Annual Stock Assessment - CWT [Coded Wire Tag program] (USFWS), Annual Report 2007.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pastor, Stephen M.

2009-07-21

In 1989 the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) began funding the evaluation of production groups of juvenile anadromous fish not being coded-wire tagged for other programs. These groups were the 'Missing Production Groups'. Production fish released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) without representative coded-wire tags during the 1980s are indicated as blank spaces on the survival graphs in this report. This program is now referred to as 'Annual Stock Assessment - CWT'. The objectives of the 'Annual Stock Assessment' program are to: (1) estimate the total survival of each production group, (2) estimate the contribution of each productionmore » group to fisheries, and (3) prepare an annual report for USFWS hatcheries in the Columbia River basin. Coded-wire tag recovery information will be used to evaluate the relative success of individual brood stocks. This information can also be used by salmon harvest managers to develop plans to allow the harvest of excess hatchery fish while protecting threatened, endangered, or other stocks of concern. All fish release information, including marked/unmarked ratios, is reported to the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC). Fish recovered in the various fisheries or at the hatcheries are sampled to recover coded-wire tags. This recovery information is also reported to PSMFC. This report has been prepared annually starting with the report labeled 'Annual Report 1994'. Although the current report has the title 'Annual Report 2007', it was written in fall of 2008 using data available from RMIS that same year, and submitted as final in January 2009. The main objective of the report is to evaluate survival of groups which have been tagged under this ongoing project.« less

Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: Part II analysis of CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-12-01

In this study, a simple coupled framework established in Part I is utilized to investigate inter-model diversity in simulating the equatorial Pacific SST annual cycle (SSTAC). It demonstrates that the simulated amplitude and phase characteristics of SSTAC in models are controlled by two internal dynamical factors (the damping rate and phase speed) and two external forcing factors (the strength of the annual and semi-annual harmonic forcing). These four diagnostic factors are further condensed into a dynamical response factor and a forcing factor to derive theoretical solutions of amplitude and phase of SSTAC. The theoretical solutions are in remarkable agreement with observations and CMIP5 simulations. The great diversity in the simulated SSTACs is related to the spreads in these dynamic and forcing factors. Most models tend to simulate a weak SSTAC, due to their weak damping rate and annual harmonic forcing. The latter is due to bias in the meridional asymmetry of the annual mean state of the tropical Pacific, represented by the weak cross-equatorial winds in the cold tongue region.

Impact of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000

EIA Publications

2000-01-01

This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

2017-05-01

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

Secular and annual hydrologic effects from the Plate Boundary Observatory GPS network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meertens, C. M.; Wahr, J. M.; Borsa, A. A.; Jackson, M. E.; Herring, T.

2009-12-01

The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS network is providing accurate and spatially coherent vertical signals that can be interpreted in terms of hydrological loading and poroelastic effects from both natural and anthropogenic changes in water storage. Data used for this analysis are the precise coordinate time series produced on a daily basis by PBO Analysis Centers at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology and at Central Washington University and combined by the Analysis Center Coordinator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These products, as well as derived velocity solutions, are made freely available from the UNAVCO Data Center in Boulder. Analysis of secular trends and annual variations in the time series was made using the analysis software of Langbein, 2008. Spatial variations in the amplitude and phase of the annual vertical component of motion allow for identification of anthropogenic effects due to water pumping, irrigation, and reservoir lake variations, and of outliers due to instrumental or other local site effects. Vertical annual signals of 8-10 mm peak-to-peak amplitude are evident at stations in the mountains of northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest. The peak annual uplift is in October and is correlated to hydrological loading effects. Mountainous areas appear to be responding elastically to the load of the water contained in surface soil, fractures, and snow. Vertical signals are highest when the water load is at a minimum. The vertical elastic hydrologic loading signal was modeled using the 0.25 degree community NOAH land-surface model (LSM) and generally fits the observed GPS signal. Addition comparisons will be made using the Mosaic LSM and the NOAA “Leaky Bucket” hydrologic model. In contrast to mountain stations that are installed principally in bedrock, stations in the valleys of California are installed in sediments. Observations from these stations show greater spatial variability ranging from

Annual Partnership Report, 2016

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyoming Community College Commission, 2016

2016-01-01

The "Annual Partnership Report" catalogs partnerships that Wyoming community colleges established and maintained for each fiscal year. This partnership report fulfills statutory reporting requirement W.S. 21-18-202(e)(iv) which mandates the development of annual reports to the legislature on the outcomes of partnerships between colleges…

Idaho National Laboratory PCB Annual Document Log and Annual Records Report for Calendar Year 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

no name on report

The requirements for the reporting of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-related activities are found in 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 761 Subpart J, "General Records and Reports." The PCB Annual Document Log is a detailed record of the PCB waste handling activities at the facility. The facility must prepare it each year by July 1 and maintain it at the facility for at least 3 years after the facility ceases using or storing PCBs and PCB items. While submittal of the PCB Annual Document Log to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is not required by regulation, EPA has verbally requestedmore » in telephone conversations that this report be submitted to them on an annual basis. The Annual Document Log section of this report meets the requirements of 40 CFR 761.180(a)(2), as applicable, while the Annual Records section meets the requirement of 40 CFR 761.180(a)(1).« less

Semiannual and annual variations in the height of the ionospheric F2-peak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rishbeth, H.; Sedgemore-Schulthess, K. J. F.; Ulich, T.

2000-03-01

Ionosonde data from sixteen stations are used to study the semiannual and annual variations in the height of the ionospheric F2-peak, hmF2. The semiannual variation, which peaks shortly after equinox, has an amplitude of about 8 km at an average level of solar activity (10.7 cm flux = 140 units), both at noon and midnight. The annual variation has an amplitude of about 11 km at northern midlatitudes, peaking in early summer; and is larger at southern stations, where it peaks in late summer. Both annual and semiannual amplitudes increase with increasing solar activity by day, but not at night. The semiannual variation in hmF2 is unrelated to the semiannual variation of the peak electron density NmF2, and is not reproduced by the CTIP and TIME-GCM computational models of the quiet-day thermosphere and ionosphere. The semiannual variation in hmF2 is approximately isobaric , in that its amplitude corresponds quite well to the semiannual variation in the height of fixed pressure-levels in the thermosphere, as represented by the MSIS empirical model. The annual variation is not isobaric . The annual mean of hmF2 increases with solar 10.7 cm flux, both by night and by day, on average by about 0.45 km/flux unit, rather smaller than the corresponding increase of height of constant pressure-levels in the MSIS model. The discrepancy may be due to solar-cycle variations of thermospheric winds. Although geomagnetic activity, which affects thermospheric density and temperature and therefore hmF2 also, is greatest at the equinoxes, this seems to account for less than half the semiannual variation of hmF2. The rest may be due to a semiannual variation of tidal and wave energy transmitted to the thermosphere from lower levels in the atmosphere.

SERC 2011 Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

control number. 1. REPORT DATE 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE SERC 2011 Annual Report...2 SERC Operational Accomplishments .................................................................4 An Evolving Role for the... SERC Research Council ................................5 Systems Engineering for an Agile and Lean World ....................................6 Annual

Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.; Westerman, Drew A.

2014-01-01

This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

2017-04-01

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

14 CFR 120.119 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AND OPERATORS FOR COMPENSATION OR HIRE: CERTIFICATION AND OPERATIONS DRUG AND ALCOHOL TESTING PROGRAM Drug Testing Program Requirements § 120.119 Annual reports. (a) Annual reports of testing results must... holder shall submit an annual report each year. (2) Each entity conducting a drug testing program under...

14 CFR 120.119 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AND OPERATORS FOR COMPENSATION OR HIRE: CERTIFICATION AND OPERATIONS DRUG AND ALCOHOL TESTING PROGRAM Drug Testing Program Requirements § 120.119 Annual reports. (a) Annual reports of testing results must... holder shall submit an annual report each year. (2) Each entity conducting a drug testing program under...

14 CFR 120.119 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AND OPERATORS FOR COMPENSATION OR HIRE: CERTIFICATION AND OPERATIONS DRUG AND ALCOHOL TESTING PROGRAM Drug Testing Program Requirements § 120.119 Annual reports. (a) Annual reports of testing results must... holder shall submit an annual report each year. (2) Each entity conducting a drug testing program under...

14 CFR 120.119 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AND OPERATORS FOR COMPENSATION OR HIRE: CERTIFICATION AND OPERATIONS DRUG AND ALCOHOL TESTING PROGRAM Drug Testing Program Requirements § 120.119 Annual reports. (a) Annual reports of testing results must... holder shall submit an annual report each year. (2) Each entity conducting a drug testing program under...

14 CFR 120.119 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AND OPERATORS FOR COMPENSATION OR HIRE: CERTIFICATION AND OPERATIONS DRUG AND ALCOHOL TESTING PROGRAM Drug Testing Program Requirements § 120.119 Annual reports. (a) Annual reports of testing results must... holder shall submit an annual report each year. (2) Each entity conducting a drug testing program under...

77 FR 16484 - Annual Stress Test

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-21

... FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 325 RIN 3064-AD91 Annual Stress Test AGENCY... to conduct annual stress tests. \\1\\ Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Public... billion (``covered banks'') to conduct annual stress tests (``bank-run stress tests''). The proposed rule...

77 FR 16484 - Annual Stress Test

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-21

...-2011-0029] RIN 1557-AD58 Annual Stress Test AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury... billion to conduct an annual stress test and comply with certain reporting and disclosure requirements. To... conduct annual stress tests pursuant to regulations prescribed by their respective Federal primary...

46 CFR 169.225 - Annual inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Annual inspection. 169.225 Section 169.225 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Inspection and Certification Reinspection § 169.225 Annual inspection. (a) Your vessel must undergo an annual...

46 CFR 169.225 - Annual inspection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Annual inspection. 169.225 Section 169.225 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Inspection and Certification Reinspection § 169.225 Annual inspection. (a) Your vessel must undergo an annual...

50 CFR 660.408 - Annual actions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 11 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Annual actions. 660.408 Section 660.408... Annual actions. (a) General. NMFS will annually establish or, as necessary, adjust management specifications for the commercial, recreational, and treaty Indian fisheries by publishing the action in the...

50 CFR 660.408 - Annual actions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Annual actions. 660.408 Section 660.408... Annual actions. (a) General. NMFS will annually establish or, as necessary, adjust management specifications for the commercial, recreational, and treaty Indian fisheries by publishing the action in the...

45 CFR 1176.5 - Annual plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... ENDOWMENT FOR THE HUMANITIES PART-TIME CAREER EMPLOYMENT § 1176.5 Annual plan. (a) An agencywide plan for promoting part-time employment opportunities will be developed annually. This plan will establish annual... administering personnel ceilings, part-time career employees shall be counted against ceiling authorizations as...

Inter-annual variability of North Sea plaice spawning habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loots, C.; Vaz, S.; Koubbi, P.; Planque, B.; Coppin, F.; Verin, Y.

2010-11-01

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January-March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence-absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.

Joint Services Electronics Program. Annual Report (16th). Appendix

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

Lee and R.J. Burkholder, "A Three-Dimensional Implementation of the Hybrid Ray-FDTD Method for Modeling Electromagnetic Scattering from Electrically ...thin material-coated metallic surfaces. Each of the It is noted that expressions for the constants A1 electrically thin material coatings is modeled by...ElectroSdiece Laboratory Department of Electrical Engineering Columbus, Ohio 43212I ODTIC.. . •L•ELECTIE 1 Annual Report Appendix 721563-6 JAN I At ,94

77 FR 3408 - Annual Stress Test

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-24

...-2011-0029] RIN 1557-AD58 Annual Stress Test AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (``OCC... certain companies to conduct annual stress tests pursuant to regulations prescribed by their respective... stress test as prescribed by this proposed rule. In addition to the annual stress test requirement, such...

25 CFR 122.9 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES MANAGEMENT OF OSAGE JUDGMENT FUNDS FOR EDUCATION § 122.9 Annual report. The Osage Tribal Education Committee shall submit an annual report on OMB approved Form 1076-0106, Higher Education Annual Report, to the Assistant Secretary or his/her designated...

28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208... Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually to Congress regarding its compliance with Sunshine Act requirements, including a tabulation of the total...

28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208... Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually to Congress regarding its compliance with Sunshine Act requirements, including a tabulation of the total...

11 CFR 2.8 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Annual report. 2.8 Section 2.8 Federal Elections FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION SUNSHINE REGULATIONS; MEETINGS § 2.8 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually to Congress regarding its compliance with the requirements of the Government in...

28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208... Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually to Congress regarding its compliance with Sunshine Act requirements, including a tabulation of the total...

28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208... Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually to Congress regarding its compliance with Sunshine Act requirements, including a tabulation of the total...

40 CFR 256.05 - Annual work program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Annual work program. 256.05 Section..., Definitions § 256.05 Annual work program. (a) The annual work program submitted for financial assistance under... Administrator and the State shall agree on the contents of the annual work program. The Administrator will...

40 CFR 256.05 - Annual work program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual work program. 256.05 Section..., Definitions § 256.05 Annual work program. (a) The annual work program submitted for financial assistance under... Administrator and the State shall agree on the contents of the annual work program. The Administrator will...

ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

2018-01-01

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

Flow-duration-frequency behaviour of British rivers based on annual minima data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Maxine D.; Keller, Virginie; Young, Andrew R.; Cadman, Daniel

2003-06-01

A comparison of different probability distribution models for describing the flow-duration-frequency behaviour of annual minima flow events in British rivers is reported. Twenty-five catchments were included in the study, each having stable and natural flow records of at least 30 years in length. Time series of annual minima D-day average flows were derived for each record using durations ( D) of 1, 7, 30, 60, 90, and 365 days and used to construct low flow frequency curves. In each case the Gringorten plotting position formula was used to determine probabilities (of non-exceedance). Four distribution types—Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), Generalised Logistic (GL), Pearson Type-3 (PE3) and Generalised Pareto (GP)—were used to model the probability distribution function for each site. L-moments were used to parameterise individual models, whilst goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess their match to the sample data. The study showed that where short durations (i.e. 60 days or less) were considered, high storage catchments tended to be best represented by GL and GEV distribution models whilst low storage catchments were best described by PE3 or GEV models. However, these models produced reasonable results only within a limited range (e.g. models for high storage catchments did not produce sensible estimates of return periods where the prescribed flow was less than 10% of the mean flow). For annual minima series derived using long duration flow averages (e.g. more than 90 days), GP and GEV models were generally more applicable. The study suggests that longer duration minima do not conform to the same distribution types as short durations, and that catchment properties can influence the type of distribution selected.

12 CFR 46.5 - Annual stress test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Annual stress test. 46.5 Section 46.5 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ANNUAL STRESS TEST § 46.5 Annual stress test. Each covered institution must conduct the annual stress test under this part subject to the...

12 CFR 46.5 - Annual stress test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Annual stress test. 46.5 Section 46.5 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ANNUAL STRESS TEST § 46.5 Annual stress test. Each covered institution must conduct the annual stress test under this part subject to the...

36 CFR 901.5 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Annual report. 901.5 Section... CORPORATION § 901.5 Annual report. The Executive Director shall prepare annually a comprehensive and detailed report of the Corporation's operations, activities, and accomplishments for the review of the Board of...

36 CFR 901.5 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Annual report. 901.5 Section... CORPORATION § 901.5 Annual report. The Executive Director shall prepare annually a comprehensive and detailed report of the Corporation's operations, activities, and accomplishments for the review of the Board of...

36 CFR 901.5 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual report. 901.5 Section... CORPORATION § 901.5 Annual report. The Executive Director shall prepare annually a comprehensive and detailed report of the Corporation's operations, activities, and accomplishments for the review of the Board of...

36 CFR 901.5 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Annual report. 901.5 Section... CORPORATION § 901.5 Annual report. The Executive Director shall prepare annually a comprehensive and detailed report of the Corporation's operations, activities, and accomplishments for the review of the Board of...

Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

PubMed

Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

2015-07-01

Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Annual Rates on Seismogenic Italian Sources with Models of Long-Term Predictability for the Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment In Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Console, Rodolfo

2016-04-01

The present study is carried out in the framework of the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) INGV, under the agreement signed in 2015 with the Department of Civil Protection for developing a new model of seismic hazard of the country that can update the current reference (MPS04-S1; zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it and esse1.mi.ingv.it) released between 2004 and 2006. In this initiative, we participate with the Long-Term Stress Transfer (LTST) Model to provide the annual occurrence rate of a seismic event on the entire Italian territory, from a Mw4.5 minimum magnitude, considering bins of 0.1 magnitude units on geographical cells of 0.1° x 0.1°. Our methodology is based on the fusion of a statistical time-dependent renewal model (Brownian Passage Time, BPT, Matthews at al., 2002) with a physical model which considers the permanent effect in terms of stress that undergoes a seismogenic source in result of the earthquakes that occur on surrounding sources. For each considered catalog (historical, instrumental and individual seismogenic sources) we determined a distinct rate value for each cell of 0.1° x 0.1° for the next 50 yrs. If the cell falls within one of the sources in question, we adopted the respective value of rate, which is referred only to the magnitude of the event characteristic. This value of rate is divided by the number of grid cells that fall on the horizontal projection of the source. If instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the average value of the rate obtained from the historical and the instrumental catalog, using the method of Frankel (1995). The annual occurrence rate was computed for any of the three considered distributions (Poisson, BPT and BPT with inclusion of stress transfer).

Occupational Stress: A Comprehensive Review of the Top 50 Annual and Lifetime Cited Articles.

PubMed

Nowrouzi, Behdin; Nguyen, Christine; Casole, Jennifer; Nowrouzi-Kia, Behnam

2017-05-01

This study determined the impact and influence of published articles on the field of occupational stress. A transdisciplinary approach was used to identify the 50 work-related stress articles with the most lifetime citations and the 50 work-related stress articles with the highest annual citation rates. Studies were categorized based on their primary focus: (a) etiology, (b) predictor of outcome for which occupational stress is the outcome or predictor of outcome for which occupational stress is an independent variable, (c) management/intervention, (d) theory/model/framework, or (e) methodologies. The majority of studies with the highest number of lifetime citations as well as the highest annual citation rates used stress as a predictor or outcome of another factor. The proportion of studies that were categorized by etiology, intervention/management, theory/model/framework, or methodologies was relatively low for both lifetime and annual citations.

Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

PubMed Central

Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

2014-01-01

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444

Bioinformatics Meets Virology: The European Virus Bioinformatics Center's Second Annual Meeting.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Bashar; Arkhipova, Ksenia; Andeweg, Arno C; Posada-Céspedes, Susana; Enault, François; Gruber, Arthur; Koonin, Eugene V; Kupczok, Anne; Lemey, Philippe; McHardy, Alice C; McMahon, Dino P; Pickett, Brett E; Robertson, David L; Scheuermann, Richard H; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Zwart, Mark P; Schönhuth, Alexander; Dutilh, Bas E; Marz, Manja

2018-05-14

The Second Annual Meeting of the European Virus Bioinformatics Center (EVBC), held in Utrecht, Netherlands, focused on computational approaches in virology, with topics including (but not limited to) virus discovery, diagnostics, (meta-)genomics, modeling, epidemiology, molecular structure, evolution, and viral ecology. The goals of the Second Annual Meeting were threefold: (i) to bring together virologists and bioinformaticians from across the academic, industrial, professional, and training sectors to share best practice; (ii) to provide a meaningful and interactive scientific environment to promote discussion and collaboration between students, postdoctoral fellows, and both new and established investigators; (iii) to inspire and suggest new research directions and questions. Approximately 120 researchers from around the world attended the Second Annual Meeting of the EVBC this year, including 15 renowned international speakers. This report presents an overview of new developments and novel research findings that emerged during the meeting.

34 CFR 300.715 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Interior § 300.715 Annual reports. (a) In general. The advisory board established under § 300.714 must prepare and submit to the Secretary of the Interior and to Congress an annual report containing a... 34 Education 2 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Annual reports. 300.715 Section 300.715 Education...

34 CFR 300.715 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Interior § 300.715 Annual reports. (a) In general. The advisory board established under § 300.714 must prepare and submit to the Secretary of the Interior and to Congress an annual report containing a... 34 Education 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Annual reports. 300.715 Section 300.715 Education...

34 CFR 300.715 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Interior § 300.715 Annual reports. (a) In general. The advisory board established under § 300.714 must prepare and submit to the Secretary of the Interior and to Congress an annual report containing a... 34 Education 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Annual reports. 300.715 Section 300.715 Education...

Are annual layers preserved in NorthGRIP Eemian ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettner, E.; Bigler, M.; Nielsen, M. E.; Steffensen, J. P.; Svensson, A.

2009-04-01

A newly developed setup for continuous flow analysis (CFA) of ice cores in Copenhagen is optimized for high resolution analysis of four components: Soluble sodium (mainly deriving from sea salt), soluble ammonium (related to biological processes and biomass burning events), insoluble dust particles (basically transported from Asian deserts to Greenland), and the electrolytic melt water conductivity (which is a bulk signal for all ionic constituents). Furthermore, we are for the first time implementing a flow cytometer to obtain high quality dust concentration and size distribution profiles based on individual dust particle measurements. Preliminary measurements show that the setup is able to resolve annual layers of 1 cm thickness. Ice flow models predict that annual layers in the Eemian section of the Greenland NorthGRIP ice core (130-115 ka BP) have a thickness of around 1 cm. However, the visual stratigraphy of the ice core indicates that the annual layering in the Eemian section may be disturbed by micro folds and rapid crystal growth. In this case study we will measure the impurity content of an Eemian segment of the NorthGRIP ice core with the new CFA setup. This will allow for a comparison to well-known impurity levels of the Holocene in both Greenland and Antarctic ice and we will attempt to determine if annual layers are still present in the ice.

Annual Cycle of Surface Longwave Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Pamela E.; Smith, G. Louis; Wilber, Anne C.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

2011-01-01

The annual cycles of upward and downward longwave fluxes at the Earth s surface are investigated by use of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Data Set. Because of the immense difference between the heat capacity of land and ocean, the surface of Earth is partitioned into these two categories. Principal component analysis is used to quantify the annual cycles. Over land, the first principal component describes over 95% of the variance of the annual cycle of the upward and downward longwave fluxes. Over ocean the first term describes more than 87% of these annual cycles. Empirical orthogonal functions show the corresponding geographical distributions of these cycles. Phase plane diagrams of the annual cycles of upward longwave fluxes as a function of net shortwave flux show the thermal inertia of land and ocean.

Annual Percentage Rate and Annual Effective Rate: Resolving Confusion in Intermediate Accounting Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vicknair, David; Wright, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

Evidence of confusion in intermediate accounting textbooks regarding the annual percentage rate (APR) and annual effective rate (AER) is presented. The APR and AER are briefly discussed in the context of a note payable and correct formulas for computing each is provided. Representative examples of the types of confusion that we found is presented…

49 CFR 219.800 - Annual reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Annual reports. 219.800 Section 219.800 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CONTROL OF ALCOHOL AND DRUG USE Annual Report § 219.800 Annual reports. (a) Each railroad that has a total of 400,000 or more...

34 CFR 75.105 - Annual priorities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Annual priorities. 75.105 Section 75.105 Education... priorities (Cross-reference: See 34 CFR 75.105(c)(1)); (ii) The final annual priorities are chosen from a... Application Notice § 75.105 Annual priorities. (a) What programs are covered by this section? This section...

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

Variation in survivorship of a migratory songbird throughout its annual cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sillett, T. Scott; Holmes, Richard T.

2002-01-01

1. Demographic data from both breeding and non-breeding periods are needed to manage populations of migratory birds, many of which are declining in abundance and are of conservation concern. Although habitat associations, and to a lesser extent, reproductive biology, are known for many migratory species, few studies have measured survival rates of these birds at different parts of their annual cycle. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and Akaike's information criterion model selection were used to investigate seasonal variation in survival of a Nearctic - Neotropical migrant songbird, the black-throated blue warbler, Dendroica caerulescens. Seasonal and annual survival were estimated from resightings of colour-ringed individuals on breeding grounds in New Hampshire, USA from 1986 to 2000 and on winter quarters in Jamaica, West Indies from 1986 to 1999. Warblers were studied each year during the May-August breeding period in New Hampshire and during the October-March overwinter period in Jamaica. 3. In New Hampshire, males had higher annual survival (0.51 + 0.03) and recapture probabilities (0.93 + 0.03) than did females (survival: 0.40 + 0.04; recapture: 0'87 + 0.06). In Jamaica, annual survival (0.43 + 0.03) and recapture (0'95 + 0.04) probabilities did not differ between sexes. Annual survival and recapture probabilities of young birds (i.e. yearlings in New Hampshire and hatch-year birds in Jamaica) did not differ from adults, indicating that from the time hatch-year individuals acquire territories on winter quarters in mid-October, they survive as well as adults within the same habitat. 4. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer (May-August) and winter (October-March) stationary periods were high: 1'0 for males in New Hampshire, and 0.99 + 0.01 for males in Jamaica and for females in both locations. 5. These annual and seasonal survival estimates were used to calculate warbler survival for the migratory periods. Monthly survival probability during migration

Variation in survivorship of a migratory songbird throughout its annual cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Sillett T.; Holmes, Richard T.

2002-01-01

1. Demographic data from both breeding and non-breeding periods are needed to manage populations of migratory birds, many of which are declining in abundance and are of conservation concern. Although habitat associations, and to a lesser extent, reproductive biology, are known for many migratory species, few studies have measured survival rates of these birds at different parts of their annual cycle. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and Akaike's information criterion model selection were used to investigate seasonal variation in survival of a Nearctic - Neotropical migrant songbird, the black-throated blue warbler, Dendroica caerulescens. Seasonal and annual survival were estimated from resightings of colour-ringed individuals on breeding grounds in New Hampshire, USA from 1986 to 2000 and on winter quarters in Jamaica, West Indies from 1986 to 1999. Warblers were studied each year during the May-August breeding period in New Hampshire and during the October-March overwinter period in Jamaica. 3. In New Hampshire, males had higher annual survival (0.51 ?? 0.03) and recapture probabilities (0.93 ?? 0.03) than did females (survival: 0.40 ?? 0.04; recapture: 0.87 ?? 0.06). In Jamaica, annual survival (0.43 ?? 0.03) and recapture (0.95 ?? 0.04) probabilities did not differ between sexes. Annual survival and recapture probabilities of young birds (i.e. yearlings in New Hampshire and hatch-year birds in Jamaica) did not differ from adults, indicating that from the time hatch-year individuals acquire territories on winter quarters in mid-October, they survive as well as adults within the same habitat. 4. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer (May-August) and winter (October-March) stationary periods were high: 1.0 for males in New Hampshire, and 0.99 ?? 0.01 for males in Jamaica and for females in both locations. 5. These annual and seasonal survival estimates were used to calculate warbler survival for the migratory periods. Monthly survival probability during

From the bush to the bench: the annual Nothobranchius fishes as a new model system in biology.

PubMed

Cellerino, Alessandro; Valenzano, Dario R; Reichard, Martin

2016-05-01

African annual fishes from the genus Nothobranchius are small teleosts that inhabit temporary water bodies subject to annual desiccation due to the alternation of the monsoon seasons. Given their unique biology, these fish have emerged as a model taxon in several biological disciplines. Their increasing popularity stems from the extremely short lifespan that is the result of their specific life-history adaptations and is retained under laboratory conditions. Nothobranchius furzeri, the most popular laboratory species, is the vertebrate species with the shortest lifespan recorded in captivity. In the laboratory, adults of different Nothobranchius species and populations live between 3 and 18 months and, notably, there is a negative correlation between the captive lifespan of a species and the aridity of their habitat. Their short lifespan is coupled to rapid age-dependent functional decline and expression of cellular and molecular changes comparable to those observed in other vertebrates, including humans. The recent development of transgenesis in this species makes it possible to insert specific constructs into their genome, and the establishment of transgenic lines is facilitated by their very rapid generation time, which can be as short as 1 month. This makes Nothobranchius species particularly suited for investigating biological and molecular aspects of ageing and ageing-associated dysfunctions. At the same time, they also represent a unique model taxon to investigate the evolution of life-history adaptations and their genetic architecture. We review their natural history, including phylogenetic relationships, distribution in relation to habitat conditions and natural selection for differential longevity, population structure and demography, and life cycle with emphasis on diapause that may occur at three stages during embryonic development. We further critically evaluate their use as a laboratory model for understanding the evolution of a rapid ageing rate and

International and Intercultural Communication Annual, Volume VI, December 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jain, Nemi C., Ed.

Designed to serve as a forum for the exchange of ideas concerning international and intercultural communication, this annual volume contains articles that cover a variety of topics. The first half of the volume contains seven articles discussing the following: (1) a pragmatic approach to mass media development in three models of developing…

29 CFR 1401.37 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 29 Labor 4 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Annual report. 1401.37 Section 1401.37 Labor Regulations... Disclosure of Information § 1401.37 Annual report. The Office of the Director shall annually, within 60 days following the close of each calendar year, prepare a report covering each of the categories or records to be...

29 CFR 1401.37 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual report. 1401.37 Section 1401.37 Labor Regulations... Disclosure of Information § 1401.37 Annual report. The Office of the Director shall annually, within 60 days following the close of each calendar year, prepare a report covering each of the categories or records to be...

29 CFR 1401.37 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 29 Labor 4 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Annual report. 1401.37 Section 1401.37 Labor Regulations... Disclosure of Information § 1401.37 Annual report. The Office of the Director shall annually, within 60 days following the close of each calendar year, prepare a report covering each of the categories or records to be...

Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

EIA Publications

2002-01-01

This paper describes the methodology used to develop the National Energy Modeling System estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

Transportation statistics annual report 2000

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

The Transportation Statistics Annual Report (TSAR) is a Congressionally mandated publication with wide distribution. The TSAR provides the most comprehensive overview of U.S. transportation that is done on an annual basis. TSAR examines the extent of...

17 CFR 249.330 - Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment companies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Register citations affecting Form N-SAR, see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Form N-SAR, annual and semi... Exchange Act of 1934 § 249.330 Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment...

17 CFR 249.330 - Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment companies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Register citations affecting Form N-SAR, see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Form N-SAR, annual and semi... Exchange Act of 1934 § 249.330 Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment...

17 CFR 249.330 - Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment companies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Register citations affecting Form N-SAR, see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Form N-SAR, annual and semi... Exchange Act of 1934 § 249.330 Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment...

17 CFR 249.330 - Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment companies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Register citations affecting Form N-SAR, see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Form N-SAR, annual and semi... Exchange Act of 1934 § 249.330 Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment...

17 CFR 249.330 - Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment companies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Register citations affecting Form N-SAR, see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Form N-SAR, annual and semi... Exchange Act of 1934 § 249.330 Form N-SAR, annual and semi-annual report of certain registered investment...

Annual Research Progress Report, Fiscal Year 1980

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

AITE -sd Subtitle) 3. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED 4UAL RESEARCH pROGRESS REPORT ____________ANNUAL - FY 80 S- -- 4. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUNSER 7...AUHON) 4F e. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(e)’ JAMES DERSON, JR , M.D. 10. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10- PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT, TASK...and DOD) regulations governing human, animal and even in vitro research, the declining number of academic physicians serving as role models and

Annual and longitudinal variations of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lolk, Nina K.

1992-01-01

The climatological annual cycle of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) simulated by an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was studied. The longitudinal variation of transports, degree of geostrophy, and the relationship between Ekman pumping and vertical displacement of the thermocline were emphasized. The longitudinal variation was explored using six sections along 150 deg E, 180 deg, 160 deg W, 140 deg W, 125 deg W, and 110 deg W. A primitive equation OGCM of the Pacific Ocean was run for three years and the fields used were from the third year. The fields consisted of zonal, meridional, and vertical current components and temperature and salinity averaged every three days. The model was forced with the Hellerman and Rosenstein climatological wind stress. The mean annual eastward transport (19.9 Sv) was largest at 160 deg W. The maximum-current boundaries along 160 deg W were 9.2 deg N (1.0 deg), 5.1 deg N (1.1 deg), and 187 m (90.6 m). The annual-cycle amplitude of the NECC was greatest between 160 deg W and 140 deg W. Although the NECC is geostrophic to the first order, deviations from geostrophy were found in the boreal spring and summer near the southern boundary and near the surface. Meridional local acceleration played a role between 3 deg N-5 deg N.

Hydrological changes impacts on annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, F.; Caracciolo, D.; Feng, X.

2017-12-01

Runoff is expected to be modified in the next future by climate change as well as by land use change. Given its importance for water supply and ecosystem functioning, it is therefore imperative to develop adaptation strategies and new policies for regional water resources management and planning. To do so, the identification and attribution of natural flow regime shifts as a result of climate and land use changes are of crucial importance. In this context, the Budyko's curve has begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate and land use changes to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu's equation is proposed and applied to separate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the future annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins, such as those in Mediterranean climates. In particular, this framework improves a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins from annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration statistics, and from knowledge of the Fu's equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change has been taken into account through the variation of the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, consistent with general circulation models' outputs, while the Fu's equation parameter ω has been changed to represent land use change. The effects of the two factors of change (i.e., climate and land use) on the annual runoff pdf have been first independently and then jointly analyzed, by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and, based on likely scenarios, within the next 100 years. The results show that, for large basins, climate change is the dominant driver of the decline in annual runoff, while land use change is a secondary but important factor.

2017 Annual Disability Statistics Supplement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauer, E. A; Houtenville, A. J.

2018-01-01

The "Annual Disability Statistics Supplement" is a companion report to the "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium." The "Supplement" presents statistics on the same topics as the "Compendium," with additional categorizations by demographic characteristics including age, gender and race/ethnicity. In…

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Ni; Gu, Lianhong; Black, T. Andrew

Here, soil respiration (R s), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual R s at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest). A version of the Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best model from a range of models for annual R s estimation based on the remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and root-zonemore » soil moisture product derived from assimilation of the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer soil moisture products and a two-layer Palmer water balance model. We found that the Arrhenius-type function based on nighttime land surface temperature (LST-night) was the best model by comprehensively considering the model explanatory power and model complexity at the Missouri Ozark and BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir sites.« less

2017 Annual Disability Statistics Compendium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauer, E. A.; Houtenville, A. J.

2018-01-01

The "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium" and its compliment, the "Annual Disability Statistics Supplement," are publications of statistics about people with disabilities and about the government programs which serve them. The "Compendium" and "Supplement" are designed to serve as a summary of government…

Transportation statistics annual report 1994

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-01

The Transportation Statistics Annual Report (TSAR) provides the most comprehensive overview of U.S. transportation that is done on an annual basis. TSAR examines the extent of the system, how it is used, how well it works, how it affects people and t...

Annual Research Briefs: 1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

This report contains the 1995 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). In 1995 CTR continued its concentration on the development and application of large-eddy simulation to complex flows, development of novel modeling concepts for engineering computations in the Reynolds averaged framework, and turbulent combustion. In large-eddy simulation, a number of numerical and experimental issues have surfaced which are being addressed. The first group of reports in this volume are on large-eddy simulation. A key finding in this area was the revelation of possibly significant numerical errors that may overwhelm the effects of the subgrid-scale model. We also commissioned a new experiment to support the LES validation studies. The remaining articles in this report are concerned with Reynolds averaged modeling, studies of turbulence physics and flow generated sound, combustion, and simulation techniques. Fundamental studies of turbulent combustion using direct numerical simulations which started at CTR will continue to be emphasized. These studies and their counterparts carried out during the summer programs have had a noticeable impact on combustion research world wide.

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of

2016 Annual Disability Statistics Compendium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauer, E. A.; Houtenville, A. J.

2017-01-01

The "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium" is a publication of statistics about people with disabilities and about the government programs which serve them. The "Compendium" is designed to serve as a summary of government statistics. The 2016 "Annual Disability Statistics Compendium" was substantially revised and…

Annual Greenland Accumulation Rates (2009-2012) from Airborne Snow Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora S.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Alexander, Patrick M.; MacGregor, Joseph A.; Fettweis, Xavier; Panzer, Ben; Paden, John D.; Forster, Richard R.; Das, Indrani; McConnell, Joseph R.;

46 CFR 126.510 - Annual and periodic inspections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Annual and periodic inspections. 126.510 Section 126.510 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS INSPECTION AND CERTIFICATION Annual, Periodic, and Alternative Annual Inspections § 126.510 Annual and periodic inspections. (a...

46 CFR 126.510 - Annual and periodic inspections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Annual and periodic inspections. 126.510 Section 126.510 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS INSPECTION AND CERTIFICATION Annual, Periodic, and Alternative Annual Inspections § 126.510 Annual and periodic inspections. (a...

Exploring the correlation between annual precipitation and potential evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Buchberger, S. G.

2017-12-01

The interdependence between precipitation and potential evaporation is closely related to the classic Budyko framework. In this study, a systematic investigation of the correlation between precipitation and potential evaporation at the annual time step is conducted at both point scale and watershed scale. The point scale precipitation and potential evaporation data over the period of 1984-2015 are collected from 259 weather stations across the United States. The watershed scale precipitation data of 203 watersheds across the United States are obtained from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) dataset from 1983 to 2002; and potential evaporation data of these 203 watersheds in the same period are obtained from a remote-sensing algorithm. The results show that majority of the weather stations (77%) and watersheds (79%) exhibit a statistically significant negative correlation between annual precipitation and annual potential evaporation. The aggregated data cloud of precipitation versus potential evaporation follows a curve based on the combination of the Budyko-type equation and Bouchet's complementary relationship. Our result suggests that annual precipitation and potential evaporation are not independent when both Budyko's hypothesis and Bouchet's hypothesis are valid. Furthermore, we find that the wet surface evaporation, which is controlled primarily by short wave radiation as defined in Bouchet's hypothesis, exhibits less dependence on precipitation than the potential evaporation. As a result, we suggest that wet surface evaporation is a better representation of energy supply than potential evaporation in the Budyko framework.

Quantifying annual internal effective 137Cesium dose utilizing direct body-burden measurement and ecological dose modeling.

PubMed

Jelin, Benjamin A; Sun, Wenjie; Kravets, Alexandra; Naboka, Maryna; Stepanova, Eugenia I; Vdovenko, Vitaliy Y; Karmaus, Wilfried J; Lichosherstov, Alex; Svendsen, Erik R

2016-11-01

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) accident represents one of the most significant civilian releases of 137 Cesium ( 137 Cs, radiocesium) in human history. In the Chernobyl-affected region, radiocesium is considered to be the greatest on-going environmental hazard to human health by radiobiologists and public health scientists. The goal of this study was to characterize dosimetric patterns and predictive factors for whole-body count (WBC)-derived radiocesium internal dose estimations in a CNPP-affected children's cohort, and cross-validate these estimations with a soil-based ecological dose estimation model. WBC data were used to estimate the internal effective dose using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 67 dose conversion coefficient for 137 Cs and MONDAL Version 3.01 software. Geometric mean dose estimates from each model were compared utilizing paired t-tests and intra-class correlation coefficients. Additionally, we developed predictive models for WBC-derived dose estimation in order to determine the appropriateness of EMARC to estimate dose for this population. The two WBC-derived dose predictive models identified 137 Cs soil concentration (P<0.0001) as the strongest predictor of annual internal effective dose from radiocesium validating the use of the soil-based EMARC model. The geometric mean internal effective dose estimate of the EMARC model (0.183 mSv/y) was the highest followed by the ICRP 67 dose estimates (0.165 mSv/y) and the MONDAL model estimates (0.149 mSv/y). All three models yielded significantly different geometric mean dose (P<0.05) estimates for this cohort when stratified by sex, age at time of exam and season of exam, except for the mean MONDAL and EMARC estimates for 15- and 16-year olds and mean ICRP and MONDAL estimates for children examined in Winter. Further prospective and retrospective radio-epidemiological studies utilizing refined WBC measurements and ecological model dose estimations, in

Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Kenneth S.; Plant, Joshua N.; Dunne, John P.; Talley, Lynne D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-08-01

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30°S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m-2 yr-1) from 40 to 50°S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 for all regions south of 40°S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50°S is 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area.