Sample records for naive bayes models

  1. Understanding of the naive Bayes classifier in spam filtering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Qijia

    2018-05-01

    Along with the development of the Internet, the information stream is experiencing an unprecedented burst. The methods of information transmission become more and more important and people receiving effective information is a hot topic in the both research and industry field. As one of the most common methods of information communication, email has its own advantages. However, spams always flood the inbox and automatic filtering is needed. This paper is going to discuss this issue from the perspective of Naive Bayes Classifier, which is one of the applications of Bayes Theorem. Concepts and process of Naive Bayes Classifier will be introduced, followed by two examples. Discussion with Machine Learning is made in the last section. Naive Bayes Classifier has been proved to be surprisingly effective, with the limitation of the interdependence among attributes which are usually email words or phrases.

  2. Comparison of Naive Bayes and Decision Tree on Feature Selection Using Genetic Algorithm for Classification Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmadani, S.; Dongoran, A.; Zarlis, M.; Zakarias

    2018-03-01

    This paper discusses the problem of feature selection using genetic algorithms on a dataset for classification problems. The classification model used is the decicion tree (DT), and Naive Bayes. In this paper we will discuss how the Naive Bayes and Decision Tree models to overcome the classification problem in the dataset, where the dataset feature is selectively selected using GA. Then both models compared their performance, whether there is an increase in accuracy or not. From the results obtained shows an increase in accuracy if the feature selection using GA. The proposed model is referred to as GADT (GA-Decision Tree) and GANB (GA-Naive Bayes). The data sets tested in this paper are taken from the UCI Machine Learning repository.

  3. Improving Naive Bayes with Online Feature Selection for Quick Adaptation to Evolving Feature Usefulness

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pon, R K; Cardenas, A F; Buttler, D J

    The definition of what makes an article interesting varies from user to user and continually evolves even for a single user. As a result, for news recommendation systems, useless document features can not be determined a priori and all features are usually considered for interestingness classification. Consequently, the presence of currently useless features degrades classification performance [1], particularly over the initial set of news articles being classified. The initial set of document is critical for a user when considering which particular news recommendation system to adopt. To address these problems, we introduce an improved version of the naive Bayes classifiermore » with online feature selection. We use correlation to determine the utility of each feature and take advantage of the conditional independence assumption used by naive Bayes for online feature selection and classification. The augmented naive Bayes classifier performs 28% better than the traditional naive Bayes classifier in recommending news articles from the Yahoo! RSS feeds.« less

  4. Risk Classification with an Adaptive Naive Bayes Kernel Machine Model.

    PubMed

    Minnier, Jessica; Yuan, Ming; Liu, Jun S; Cai, Tianxi

    2015-04-22

    Genetic studies of complex traits have uncovered only a small number of risk markers explaining a small fraction of heritability and adding little improvement to disease risk prediction. Standard single marker methods may lack power in selecting informative markers or estimating effects. Most existing methods also typically do not account for non-linearity. Identifying markers with weak signals and estimating their joint effects among many non-informative markers remains challenging. One potential approach is to group markers based on biological knowledge such as gene structure. If markers in a group tend to have similar effects, proper usage of the group structure could improve power and efficiency in estimation. We propose a two-stage method relating markers to disease risk by taking advantage of known gene-set structures. Imposing a naive bayes kernel machine (KM) model, we estimate gene-set specific risk models that relate each gene-set to the outcome in stage I. The KM framework efficiently models potentially non-linear effects of predictors without requiring explicit specification of functional forms. In stage II, we aggregate information across gene-sets via a regularization procedure. Estimation and computational efficiency is further improved with kernel principle component analysis. Asymptotic results for model estimation and gene set selection are derived and numerical studies suggest that the proposed procedure could outperform existing procedures for constructing genetic risk models.

  5. Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul

    1999-01-01

    Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.…

  6. Naive Bayes as opinion classifier to evaluate students satisfaction based on student sentiment in Twitter Social Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candra Permana, Fahmi; Rosmansyah, Yusep; Setiawan Abdullah, Atje

    2017-10-01

    Students activity on social media can provide implicit knowledge and new perspectives for an educational system. Sentiment analysis is a part of text mining that can help to analyze and classify the opinion data. This research uses text mining and naive Bayes method as opinion classifier, to be used as an alternative methods in the process of evaluating studentss satisfaction for educational institution. Based on test results, this system can determine the opinion classification in Bahasa Indonesia using naive Bayes as opinion classifier with accuracy level of 84% correct, and the comparison between the existing system and the proposed system to evaluate students satisfaction in learning process, there is only a difference of 16.49%.

  7. A naive Bayes algorithm for tissue origin diagnosis (TOD-Bayes) of synchronous multifocal tumors in the hepatobiliary and pancreatic system.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Weiqin; Shen, Yifei; Ding, Yongfeng; Ye, Chuyu; Zheng, Yi; Zhao, Peng; Liu, Lulu; Tong, Zhou; Zhou, Linfu; Sun, Shuo; Zhang, Xingchen; Teng, Lisong; Timko, Michael P; Fan, Longjiang; Fang, Weijia

    2018-01-15

    Synchronous multifocal tumors are common in the hepatobiliary and pancreatic system but because of similarities in their histological features, oncologists have difficulty in identifying their precise tissue clonal origin through routine histopathological methods. To address this problem and assist in more precise diagnosis, we developed a computational approach for tissue origin diagnosis based on naive Bayes algorithm (TOD-Bayes) using ubiquitous RNA-Seq data. Massive tissue-specific RNA-Seq data sets were first obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and ∼1,000 feature genes were used to train and validate the TOD-Bayes algorithm. The accuracy of the model was >95% based on tenfold cross validation by the data from TCGA. A total of 18 clinical cancer samples (including six negative controls) with definitive tissue origin were subsequently used for external validation and 17 of the 18 samples were classified correctly in our study (94.4%). Furthermore, we included as cases studies seven tumor samples, taken from two individuals who suffered from synchronous multifocal tumors across tissues, where the efforts to make a definitive primary cancer diagnosis by traditional diagnostic methods had failed. Using our TOD-Bayes analysis, the two clinical test cases were successfully diagnosed as pancreatic cancer (PC) and cholangiocarcinoma (CC), respectively, in agreement with their clinical outcomes. Based on our findings, we believe that the TOD-Bayes algorithm is a powerful novel methodology to accurately identify the tissue origin of synchronous multifocal tumors of unknown primary cancers using RNA-Seq data and an important step toward more precision-based medicine in cancer diagnosis and treatment. © 2017 UICC.

  8. Content Abstract Classification Using Naive Bayes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latif, Syukriyanto; Suwardoyo, Untung; Aldrin Wihelmus Sanadi, Edwin

    2018-03-01

    This study aims to classify abstract content based on the use of the highest number of words in an abstract content of the English language journals. This research uses a system of text mining technology that extracts text data to search information from a set of documents. Abstract content of 120 data downloaded at www.computer.org. Data grouping consists of three categories: DM (Data Mining), ITS (Intelligent Transport System) and MM (Multimedia). Systems built using naive bayes algorithms to classify abstract journals and feature selection processes using term weighting to give weight to each word. Dimensional reduction techniques to reduce the dimensions of word counts rarely appear in each document based on dimensional reduction test parameters of 10% -90% of 5.344 words. The performance of the classification system is tested by using the Confusion Matrix based on comparative test data and test data. The results showed that the best classification results were obtained during the 75% training data test and 25% test data from the total data. Accuracy rates for categories of DM, ITS and MM were 100%, 100%, 86%. respectively with dimension reduction parameters of 30% and the value of learning rate between 0.1-0.5.

  9. A NAIVE BAYES SOURCE CLASSIFIER FOR X-RAY SOURCES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Broos, Patrick S.; Getman, Konstantin V.; Townsley, Leisa K.

    2011-05-01

    The Chandra Carina Complex Project (CCCP) provides a sensitive X-ray survey of a nearby starburst region over >1 deg{sup 2} in extent. Thousands of faint X-ray sources are found, many concentrated into rich young stellar clusters. However, significant contamination from unrelated Galactic and extragalactic sources is present in the X-ray catalog. We describe the use of a naive Bayes classifier to assign membership probabilities to individual sources, based on source location, X-ray properties, and visual/infrared properties. For the particular membership decision rule adopted, 75% of CCCP sources are classified as members, 11% are classified as contaminants, and 14% remain unclassified.more » The resulting sample of stars likely to be Carina members is used in several other studies, which appear in this special issue devoted to the CCCP.« less

  10. Support vector inductive logic programming outperforms the naive Bayes classifier and inductive logic programming for the classification of bioactive chemical compounds.

    PubMed

    Cannon, Edward O; Amini, Ata; Bender, Andreas; Sternberg, Michael J E; Muggleton, Stephen H; Glen, Robert C; Mitchell, John B O

    2007-05-01

    We investigate the classification performance of circular fingerprints in combination with the Naive Bayes Classifier (MP2D), Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) and Support Vector Inductive Logic Programming (SVILP) on a standard molecular benchmark dataset comprising 11 activity classes and about 102,000 structures. The Naive Bayes Classifier treats features independently while ILP combines structural fragments, and then creates new features with higher predictive power. SVILP is a very recently presented method which adds a support vector machine after common ILP procedures. The performance of the methods is evaluated via a number of statistical measures, namely recall, specificity, precision, F-measure, Matthews Correlation Coefficient, area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and enrichment factor (EF). According to the F-measure, which takes both recall and precision into account, SVILP is for seven out of the 11 classes the superior method. The results show that the Bayes Classifier gives the best recall performance for eight of the 11 targets, but has a much lower precision, specificity and F-measure. The SVILP model on the other hand has the highest recall for only three of the 11 classes, but generally far superior specificity and precision. To evaluate the statistical significance of the SVILP superiority, we employ McNemar's test which shows that SVILP performs significantly (p < 5%) better than both other methods for six out of 11 activity classes, while being superior with less significance for three of the remaining classes. While previously the Bayes Classifier was shown to perform very well in molecular classification studies, these results suggest that SVILP is able to extract additional knowledge from the data, thus improving classification results further.

  11. Hierarchical Naive Bayes for genetic association studies.

    PubMed

    Malovini, Alberto; Barbarini, Nicola; Bellazzi, Riccardo; de Michelis, Francesca

    2012-01-01

    Genome Wide Association Studies represent powerful approaches that aim at disentangling the genetic and molecular mechanisms underlying complex traits. The usual "one-SNP-at-the-time" testing strategy cannot capture the multi-factorial nature of this kind of disorders. We propose a Hierarchical Naïve Bayes classification model for taking into account associations in SNPs data characterized by Linkage Disequilibrium. Validation shows that our model reaches classification performances superior to those obtained by the standard Naïve Bayes classifier for simulated and real datasets. In the Hierarchical Naïve Bayes implemented, the SNPs mapping to the same region of Linkage Disequilibrium are considered as "details" or "replicates" of the locus, each contributing to the overall effect of the region on the phenotype. A latent variable for each block, which models the "population" of correlated SNPs, can be then used to summarize the available information. The classification is thus performed relying on the latent variables conditional probability distributions and on the SNPs data available. The developed methodology has been tested on simulated datasets, each composed by 300 cases, 300 controls and a variable number of SNPs. Our approach has been also applied to two real datasets on the genetic bases of Type 1 Diabetes and Type 2 Diabetes generated by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. The approach proposed in this paper, called Hierarchical Naïve Bayes, allows dealing with classification of examples for which genetic information of structurally correlated SNPs are available. It improves the Naïve Bayes performances by properly handling the within-loci variability.

  12. Fuzzy Naive Bayesian model for medical diagnostic decision support.

    PubMed

    Wagholikar, Kavishwar B; Vijayraghavan, Sundararajan; Deshpande, Ashok W

    2009-01-01

    This work relates to the development of computational algorithms to provide decision support to physicians. The authors propose a Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) model for medical diagnosis, which extends the Fuzzy Bayesian approach proposed by Okuda. A physician's interview based method is described to define a orthogonal fuzzy symptom information system, required to apply the model. For the purpose of elaboration and elicitation of characteristics, the algorithm is applied to a simple simulated dataset, and compared with conventional Naive Bayes (NB) approach. As a preliminary evaluation of FNB in real world scenario, the comparison is repeated on a real fuzzy dataset of 81 patients diagnosed with infectious diseases. The case study on simulated dataset elucidates that FNB can be optimal over NB for diagnosing patients with imprecise-fuzzy information, on account of the following characteristics - 1) it can model the information that, values of some attributes are semantically closer than values of other attributes, and 2) it offers a mechanism to temper exaggerations in patient information. Although the algorithm requires precise training data, its utility for fuzzy training data is argued for. This is supported by the case study on infectious disease dataset, which indicates optimality of FNB over NB for the infectious disease domain. Further case studies on large datasets are required to establish utility of FNB.

  13. Naïve Bayes classification in R.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-06-01

    Naïve Bayes classification is a kind of simple probabilistic classification methods based on Bayes' theorem with the assumption of independence between features. The model is trained on training dataset to make predictions by predict() function. This article introduces two functions naiveBayes() and train() for the performance of Naïve Bayes classification.

  14. Data mining for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) prediction with naive Bayes method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arafiyah, Ria; Hermin, Fariani

    2018-01-01

    Handling of infectious diseases is determined by the accuracy and speed of diagnosis. Government through the Regulation of the Minister of Health of the Republic of Indonesia No. 82 of 2014 on the Control of Communicable Diseases establishes Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) has made DHF prevention a national priority. Various attempts were made to overcome this misdiagnosis. The treatment and diagnosis of DHF using ANFIS has result an application program that can decide whether a patient has dengue fever or not [1]. An expert system of dengue prevention by using ANFIS has predict the weather and the number of sufferers [2]. The large number of data on DHF often cannot affect a person in making decisions. The use of data mining method, able to build data base support in decision makers diagnose DHF disease [3]. This study predicts DHF with the method of Naive Bayes. Parameter of The input variable is the patient’s medical data (temperature, spotting, bleeding, and tornuine test) and the output variable suffers from DBD or not while the system output is diagnosis of the patient suffering from DHF or not. Result of model test by using tools of Orange 3.4.5 obtained level of precision model is 77,3%.

  15. A Naive Bayes machine learning approach to risk prediction using censored, time-to-event data.

    PubMed

    Wolfson, Julian; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Elidrisi, Mohamed; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Vock, David M; Musgrove, Donald; Adomavicius, Gediminas; Johnson, Paul E; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2015-09-20

    Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health records provide an alternative to the longitudinal cohort studies traditionally used to construct risk models, bringing with them both opportunities and challenges. Large sample sizes and detailed covariate histories enable the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques to uncover complex associations and interactions, but observational databases are often 'messy', with high levels of missing data and incomplete patient follow-up. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the well-known Naive Bayes machine learning approach to time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. We compare the predictive performance of our method with the Cox proportional hazards model which is commonly used for risk prediction in healthcare populations, and illustrate its application to prediction of cardiovascular risk using an electronic health record dataset from a large Midwest integrated healthcare system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. The diagnose of oil palm disease using Naive Bayes Method based on Expert System Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nababan, Marlince; Laia, Yonata; Sitanggang, Delima; Sihombing, Oloan; Indra, Evta; Siregar, Saut; Purba, Windania; Mancur, Roy

    2018-04-01

    Expert system is dealt with system that used computer-based human intelligence to overcome particular problem which is commonly conducted by an expert. Frequent problem faced by the farmers of oil palm is the difficulty in defining the type of plant disease. As a result, the delay treatment of plant disease brings out the declining of farm products. An application system is needed to deal with the obstacles and diagnosing the type of oil palm plant disease. The researcher designed an intelligence-based application with input-output plan which is able to diagnose the type of oil palm plant disease by applying naive bayes method. Based on the research result by conducting bayes method with recognized symptom, diagnose of oil palm plant disease could be accomplished. The data of symptoms found are leaves turned yellow 0.4, dead leaves 0.4, black and brown color among the veins of leaves 0.5, young and old fruit with whole space 0.4, and decay of bunches is 0.3. The roots are tender in the amount of 0.5, and damage on sheath is 0.3. Through the chosen symptoms as mentioned above, the value of bayes is 80% with the type of disease is rotten bunch.

  17. Using an Integrated Naive Bayes Calssifier for Crawling Relevent Data on the Web

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mihsra, A.

    2015-12-01

    In our experiments (at JPL, NASA) for DARPA Memex project, we wanted to crawl a large amount of data for various domains. A big challenge was data relevancy in the crawled data. More than 50% of the data was irrelevant to the domain at hand. One immediate solution was to use good seeds (seeds are the initial urls from where the program starts to crawl) and make sure that the crawl remains into the original host urls. This although a very efficient technique, fails under two conditions. One when you aim to reach deeper into the web; into new hosts (not in the seed list) and two when the website hosts myriad content types eg. a News website.The relevancy calculation used to be a post processing step i.e. once we had finished crawling, we trained a NaiveBayes Classifier and used it to find a rough relevancy of the web pages that we had. Integrating the relevancy into the crawling rather than after it was very important because crawling takes resources and time. To save both we needed to get an idea of relevancy of the whole crawl during run time and be able to steer its course accordingly. We use Apache Nutch as the crawler, which uses a plugin system to incorporate any new implementations and hence we built a plugin for Nutch.The Naive Bayes Parse Plugin works in the following way. It parses every page and decides, using a trained model (which is built in situ only once using the positive and negative examples given by the user in a very simple format), if it is relevant; If true, then it allows all the outlinks from that page to go to the next round of crawling; If not, then it gives the urls a second chance to prove themselves by checking some commonly expected words in the url relevant to that domain. This two tier system is very intuitive and efficient in focusing the crawl. In our initial test experiments over 100 seed urls, the results were astonishingly good with a recall of 98%.The same technique can be applied to geo-informatics. This will help scientists

  18. Optimization of Candidate Selection Using Naive Bayes: Case Study in Company X

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadar, JA; Agustono, D.; Napitupulu, D.

    2018-01-01

    This research was conducted as a decision-making system, and an alternative solution to complete the candidate assessment for a particular position. The human resources (HR) section on company X is responsible and initiative in selecting candidates in accordance with the assessment of their superiors. Selection by using the method of filling out the manager’s assessment questionnaire on the candidate’s subordinate. Three (3) managers have been determined to assess the 11 candidates for subordinates. By using questionnaire of quality classification of human resources and formula naive bayes it will get result which finally grouped using criteria scale as final grouping. The HR department has also determined that what is received is that which meets criteria 5. The result is three (3) candidates who can be proposed as candidates for certain positions in company X, and have met all required calculations. Furthermore the candidate will be given to management as an alternative input data in the selection of candidates.

  19. Detection of dechallenge in spontaneous reporting systems: a comparison of Bayes methods.

    PubMed

    Banu, A Bazila; Alias Balamurugan, S Appavu; Thirumalaikolundusubramanian, Ponniah

    2014-01-01

    Dechallenge is a response observed for the reduction or disappearance of adverse drug reactions (ADR) on withdrawal of a drug from a patient. Currently available algorithms to detect dechallenge have limitations. Hence, there is a need to compare available new methods. To detect dechallenge in Spontaneous Reporting Systems, data-mining algorithms like Naive Bayes and Improved Naive Bayes were applied for comparing the performance of the algorithms in terms of accuracy and error. Analyzing the factors of dechallenge like outcome and disease category will help medical practitioners and pharmaceutical industries to determine the reasons for dechallenge in order to take essential steps toward drug safety. Adverse drug reactions of the year 2011 and 2012 were downloaded from the United States Food and Drug Administration's database. The outcome of classification algorithms showed that Improved Naive Bayes algorithm outperformed Naive Bayes with accuracy of 90.11% and error of 9.8% in detecting the dechallenge. Detecting dechallenge for unknown samples are essential for proper prescription. To overcome the issues exposed by Naive Bayes algorithm, Improved Naive Bayes algorithm can be used to detect dechallenge in terms of higher accuracy and minimal error.

  20. Sentiment analysis system for movie review in Bahasa Indonesia using naive bayes classifier method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurdiansyah, Yanuar; Bukhori, Saiful; Hidayat, Rahmad

    2018-04-01

    There are many ways of implementing the use of sentiments often found in documents; one of which is the sentiments found on the product or service reviews. It is so important to be able to process and extract textual data from the documents. Therefore, we propose a system that is able to classify sentiments from review documents into two classes: positive sentiment and negative sentiment. We use Naive Bayes Classifier method in this document classification system that we build. We choose Movienthusiast, a movie reviews in Bahasa Indonesia website as the source of our review documents. From there, we were able to collect 1201 movie reviews: 783 positive reviews and 418 negative reviews that we use as the dataset for this machine learning classifier. The classifying accuracy yields an average of 88.37% from five times of accuracy measuring attempts using aforementioned dataset.

  1. Naive Bayes Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on Enhanced Independence of Data

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Nannan; Wu, Lifeng; Yang, Jing; Guan, Yong

    2018-01-01

    The bearing is the key component of rotating machinery, and its performance directly determines the reliability and safety of the system. Data-based bearing fault diagnosis has become a research hotspot. Naive Bayes (NB), which is based on independent presumption, is widely used in fault diagnosis. However, the bearing data are not completely independent, which reduces the performance of NB algorithms. In order to solve this problem, we propose a NB bearing fault diagnosis method based on enhanced independence of data. The method deals with data vector from two aspects: the attribute feature and the sample dimension. After processing, the classification limitation of NB is reduced by the independence hypothesis. First, we extract the statistical characteristics of the original signal of the bearings effectively. Then, the Decision Tree algorithm is used to select the important features of the time domain signal, and the low correlation features is selected. Next, the Selective Support Vector Machine (SSVM) is used to prune the dimension data and remove redundant vectors. Finally, we use NB to diagnose the fault with the low correlation data. The experimental results show that the independent enhancement of data is effective for bearing fault diagnosis. PMID:29401730

  2. Naive scoring of human sleep based on a hidden Markov model of the electroencephalogram.

    PubMed

    Yaghouby, Farid; Modur, Pradeep; Sunderam, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    Clinical sleep scoring involves tedious visual review of overnight polysomnograms by a human expert. Many attempts have been made to automate the process by training computer algorithms such as support vector machines and hidden Markov models (HMMs) to replicate human scoring. Such supervised classifiers are typically trained on scored data and then validated on scored out-of-sample data. Here we describe a methodology based on HMMs for scoring an overnight sleep recording without the benefit of a trained initial model. The number of states in the data is not known a priori and is optimized using a Bayes information criterion. When tested on a 22-subject database, this unsupervised classifier agreed well with human scores (mean of Cohen's kappa > 0.7). The HMM also outperformed other unsupervised classifiers (Gaussian mixture models, k-means, and linkage trees), that are capable of naive classification but do not model dynamics, by a significant margin (p < 0.05).

  3. Using empirical Bayes predictors from generalized linear mixed models to test and visualize associations among longitudinal outcomes.

    PubMed

    Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan K; Wagner, Brandie D; Grunwald, Gary K; Riggs, Paula D; Zerbe, Gary O

    2018-01-01

    Medical research is often designed to investigate changes in a collection of response variables that are measured repeatedly on the same subjects. The multivariate generalized linear mixed model (MGLMM) can be used to evaluate random coefficient associations (e.g. simple correlations, partial regression coefficients) among outcomes that may be non-normal and differently distributed by specifying a multivariate normal distribution for their random effects and then evaluating the latent relationship between them. Empirical Bayes predictors are readily available for each subject from any mixed model and are observable and hence, plotable. Here, we evaluate whether second-stage association analyses of empirical Bayes predictors from a MGLMM, provide a good approximation and visual representation of these latent association analyses using medical examples and simulations. Additionally, we compare these results with association analyses of empirical Bayes predictors generated from separate mixed models for each outcome, a procedure that could circumvent computational problems that arise when the dimension of the joint covariance matrix of random effects is large and prohibits estimation of latent associations. As has been shown in other analytic contexts, the p-values for all second-stage coefficients that were determined by naively assuming normality of empirical Bayes predictors provide a good approximation to p-values determined via permutation analysis. Analyzing outcomes that are interrelated with separate models in the first stage and then associating the resulting empirical Bayes predictors in a second stage results in different mean and covariance parameter estimates from the maximum likelihood estimates generated by a MGLMM. The potential for erroneous inference from using results from these separate models increases as the magnitude of the association among the outcomes increases. Thus if computable, scatterplots of the conditionally independent empirical Bayes

  4. Mathematical Model of Naive T Cell Division and Survival IL-7 Thresholds.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Joseph; Coles, Mark; Lythe, Grant; Molina-París, Carmen

    2013-01-01

    We develop a mathematical model of the peripheral naive T cell population to study the change in human naive T cell numbers from birth to adulthood, incorporating thymic output and the availability of interleukin-7 (IL-7). The model is formulated as three ordinary differential equations: two describe T cell numbers, in a resting state and progressing through the cell cycle. The third is introduced to describe changes in IL-7 availability. Thymic output is a decreasing function of time, representative of the thymic atrophy observed in aging humans. Each T cell is assumed to possess two interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R) signaling thresholds: a survival threshold and a second, higher, proliferation threshold. If the IL-7R signaling strength is below its survival threshold, a cell may undergo apoptosis. When the signaling strength is above the survival threshold, but below the proliferation threshold, the cell survives but does not divide. Signaling strength above the proliferation threshold enables entry into cell cycle. Assuming that individual cell thresholds are log-normally distributed, we derive population-average rates for apoptosis and entry into cell cycle. We have analyzed the adiabatic change in homeostasis as thymic output decreases. With a parameter set representative of a healthy individual, the model predicts a unique equilibrium number of T cells. In a parameter range representative of persistent viral or bacterial infection, where naive T cell cycle progression is impaired, a decrease in thymic output may result in the collapse of the naive T cell repertoire.

  5. Detection of Cardiovascular Disease Risk's Level for Adults Using Naive Bayes Classifier.

    PubMed

    Miranda, Eka; Irwansyah, Edy; Amelga, Alowisius Y; Maribondang, Marco M; Salim, Mulyadi

    2016-07-01

    The number of deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and stroke is predicted to reach 23.3 million in 2030. As a contribution to support prevention of this phenomenon, this paper proposes a mining model using a naïve Bayes classifier that could detect cardiovascular disease and identify its risk level for adults. The process of designing the method began by identifying the knowledge related to the cardiovascular disease profile and the level of cardiovascular disease risk factors for adults based on the medical record, and designing a mining technique model using a naïve Bayes classifier. Evaluation of this research employed two methods: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity calculation as well as an evaluation session with cardiologists and internists. The characteristics of cardiovascular disease are identified by its primary risk factors. Those factors are diabetes mellitus, the level of lipids in the blood, coronary artery function, and kidney function. Class labels were assigned according to the values of these factors: risk level 1, risk level 2 and risk level 3. The evaluation of the classifier performance (accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) in this research showed that the proposed model predicted the class label of tuples correctly (above 80%). More than eighty percent of respondents (including cardiologists and internists) who participated in the evaluation session agree till strongly agreed that this research followed medical procedures and that the result can support medical analysis related to cardiovascular disease. The research showed that the proposed model achieves good performance for risk level detection of cardiovascular disease.

  6. Predicting the need for CT imaging in children with minor head injury using an ensemble of Naive Bayes classifiers.

    PubMed

    Klement, William; Wilk, Szymon; Michalowski, Wojtek; Farion, Ken J; Osmond, Martin H; Verter, Vedat

    2012-03-01

    Using an automatic data-driven approach, this paper develops a prediction model that achieves more balanced performance (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) than the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) rule, when predicting the need for computed tomography (CT) imaging of children after a minor head injury. CT is widely considered an effective tool for evaluating patients with minor head trauma who have potentially suffered serious intracranial injury. However, its use poses possible harmful effects, particularly for children, due to exposure to radiation. Safety concerns, along with issues of cost and practice variability, have led to calls for the development of effective methods to decide when CT imaging is needed. Clinical decision rules represent such methods and are normally derived from the analysis of large prospectively collected patient data sets. The CATCH rule was created by a group of Canadian pediatric emergency physicians to support the decision of referring children with minor head injury to CT imaging. The goal of the CATCH rule was to maximize the sensitivity of predictions of potential intracranial lesion while keeping specificity at a reasonable level. After extensive analysis of the CATCH data set, characterized by severe class imbalance, and after a thorough evaluation of several data mining methods, we derived an ensemble of multiple Naive Bayes classifiers as the prediction model for CT imaging decisions. In the first phase of the experiment we compared the proposed ensemble model to other ensemble models employing rule-, tree- and instance-based member classifiers. Our prediction model demonstrated the best performance in terms of AUC, G-mean and sensitivity measures. In the second phase, using a bootstrapping experiment similar to that reported by the CATCH investigators, we showed that the proposed ensemble model achieved a more balanced predictive performance than the CATCH rule with an average

  7. Topobathymetric model of Mobile Bay, Alabama

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Brock, John C.; Howard, Daniel M.; Gesch, Dean B.; Bonisteel-Cormier, Jamie M.; Travers, Laurinda J.

    2013-01-01

    Topobathymetric Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are a merged rendering of both topography (land elevation) and bathymetry (water depth) that provides a seamless elevation product useful for inundation mapping, as well as for other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment-transport, sea-level rise, and storm-surge models. This 1/9-arc-second (approximately 3 meters) resolution model of Mobile Bay, Alabama was developed using multiple topographic and bathymetric datasets, collected on different dates. The topographic data were obtained primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset (NED) (http://ned.usgs.gov/) at 1/9-arc-second resolution; USGS Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) data (2 meters) (http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/400/); and topographic lidar data (2 meters) and Compact Hydrographic Airborne Rapid Total Survey (CHARTS) lidar data (2 meters) from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) (http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/data/coastallidar/). Bathymetry was derived from digital soundings obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/geodas/geodas.html) and from water-penetrating lidar sources, such as EAARL and CHARTS. Mobile Bay is ecologically important as it is the fourth largest estuary in the United States. The Mobile and Tensaw Rivers drain into the bay at the northern end with the bay emptying into the Gulf of Mexico at the southern end. Dauphin Island (a barrier island) and the Fort Morgan Peninsula form the mouth of Mobile Bay. Mobile Bay is 31 miles (50 kilometers) long by a maximum width of 24 miles (39 kilometers) with a total area of 413 square miles (1,070 square kilometers). The vertical datum of the Mobile Bay topobathymetric model is the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). All the topographic datasets were originally referenced to NAVD 88 and no transformations

  8. Human Naive T Cells Express Functional CXCL8 and Promote Tumorigenesis.

    PubMed

    Crespo, Joel; Wu, Ke; Li, Wei; Kryczek, Ilona; Maj, Tomasz; Vatan, Linda; Wei, Shuang; Opipari, Anthony W; Zou, Weiping

    2018-05-25

    Naive T cells are thought to be functionally quiescent. In this study, we studied and compared the phenotype, cytokine profile, and potential function of human naive CD4 + T cells in umbilical cord and peripheral blood. We found that naive CD4 + T cells, but not memory T cells, expressed high levels of chemokine CXCL8. CXCL8 + naive T cells were preferentially enriched CD31 + T cells and did not express T cell activation markers or typical Th effector cytokines, including IFN-γ, IL-4, IL-17, and IL-22. In addition, upon activation, naive T cells retained high levels of CXCL8 expression. Furthermore, we showed that naive T cell-derived CXCL8 mediated neutrophil migration in the in vitro migration assay, supported tumor sphere formation, and promoted tumor growth in an in vivo human xenograft model. Thus, human naive T cells are phenotypically and functionally heterogeneous and can carry out active functions in immune responses. Copyright © 2018 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

  9. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  10. Risk of Erectile Dysfunction in Transfusion-naive Thalassemia Men

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities. PMID:25837766

  11. Modeling tidal hydrodynamics of San Diego Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, P.-F.; Cheng, R.T.; Richter, K.; Gross, E.S.; Sutton, D.; Gartner, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    In 1983, current data were collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration using mechanical current meters. During 1992 through 1996, acoustic Doppler current profilers as well as mechanical current meters and tide gauges were used. These measurements not only document tides and tidal currents in San Diego Bay, but also provide independent data sets for model calibration and verification. A high resolution (100-m grid), depth-averaged, numerical hydrodynamic model has been implemented for San Diego Bay to describe essential tidal hydrodynamic processes in the bay. The model is calibrated using the 1983 data set and verified using the more recent 1992-1996 data. Discrepancies between model predictions and field data in beth model calibration and verification are on the order of the magnitude of uncertainties in the field data. The calibrated and verified numerical model has been used to quantify residence time and dilution and flushing of contaminant effluent into San Diego Bay. Furthermore, the numerical model has become an important research tool in ongoing hydrodynamic and water quality studies and in guiding future field data collection programs.

  12. Hydrodynamics and water quality models applied to Sepetiba Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunha, Cynara de L. da N.; Rosman, Paulo C. C.; Ferreira, Aldo Pacheco; Carlos do Nascimento Monteiro, Teófilo

    2006-10-01

    A coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model is used to simulate the pollution in Sepetiba Bay due to sewage effluent. Sepetiba Bay has a complicated geometry and bottom topography, and is located on the Brazilian coast near Rio de Janeiro. In the simulation, the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) are used as indicators for the presence of organic matter in the body of water, and as parameters for evaluating the environmental pollution of the eastern part of Sepetiba Bay. Effluent sources in the model are taken from DO and BOD field measurements. The simulation results are consistent with field observations and demonstrate that the model has been correctly calibrated. The model is suitable for evaluating the environmental impact of sewage effluent on Sepetiba Bay from river inflows, assessing the feasibility of different treatment schemes, and developing specific monitoring activities. This approach has general applicability for environmental assessment of complicated coastal bays.

  13. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language

    PubMed Central

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com. [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.] PMID:27235697

  14. Machine learning approach to automatic exudate detection in retinal images from diabetic patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sopharak, Akara; Dailey, Matthew N.; Uyyanonvara, Bunyarit; Barman, Sarah; Williamson, Tom; Thet Nwe, Khine; Aye Moe, Yin

    2010-01-01

    Exudates are among the preliminary signs of diabetic retinopathy, a major cause of vision loss in diabetic patients. Early detection of exudates could improve patients' chances to avoid blindness. In this paper, we present a series of experiments on feature selection and exudates classification using naive Bayes and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. We first fit the naive Bayes model to a training set consisting of 15 features extracted from each of 115,867 positive examples of exudate pixels and an equal number of negative examples. We then perform feature selection on the naive Bayes model, repeatedly removing features from the classifier, one by one, until classification performance stops improving. To find the best SVM, we begin with the best feature set from the naive Bayes classifier, and repeatedly add the previously-removed features to the classifier. For each combination of features, we perform a grid search to determine the best combination of hyperparameters ν (tolerance for training errors) and γ (radial basis function width). We compare the best naive Bayes and SVM classifiers to a baseline nearest neighbour (NN) classifier using the best feature sets from both classifiers. We find that the naive Bayes and SVM classifiers perform better than the NN classifier. The overall best sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy are 92.28%, 98.52%, 53.05%, and 98.41%, respectively.

  15. Naive Juveniles Are More Likely to Become Breeders after Witnessing Predator Mobbing.

    PubMed

    Griesser, Michael; Suzuki, Toshitaka N

    2017-01-01

    Responding appropriately during the first predatory attack in life is often critical for survival. In many social species, naive juveniles acquire this skill from conspecifics, but its fitness consequences remain virtually unknown. Here we experimentally demonstrate how naive juvenile Siberian jays (Perisoreus infaustus) derive a long-term fitness benefit from witnessing knowledgeable adults mobbing their principal predator, the goshawk (Accipiter gentilis). Siberian jays live in family groups of two to six individuals that also can include unrelated nonbreeders. Field observations showed that Siberian jays encounter predators only rarely, and, indeed, naive juveniles do not respond to predator models when on their own but do when observing other individuals mobbing them. Predator exposure experiments demonstrated that naive juveniles had a substantially higher first-winter survival after observing knowledgeable group members mobbing a goshawk model, increasing their likelihood of acquiring a breeding position later in life. Previous research showed that naive individuals may learn from others how to respond to predators, care for offspring, or choose mates, generally assuming that social learning has long-term fitness consequences without empirical evidence. Our results demonstrate a long-term fitness benefit of vertical social learning for naive individuals in the wild, emphasizing its evolutionary importance in animals, including humans.

  16. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

    PubMed

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J; Heath, Tracy A; Boussau, Bastien; Lartillot, Nicolas; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2016-07-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  17. Modeling the seasonal circulation in Massachusetts Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Signell, Richard P.; Jenter, Harry L.; Blumberg, Alan F.; ,

    1994-01-01

    An 18 month simulation of circulation was conducted in Massachusetts Bay, a roughly 35 m deep, 100??50 km embayment on the northeastern shelf of the United States. Using a variant of the Blumberg-Mellor (1987) model, it was found that a continuous 18 month run was only possible if the velocity field was Shapiro filtered to remove two grid length energy that developed along the open boundary due to mismatch in locally generated and climatologically forced water properties. The seasonal development of temperature and salinity stratification was well-represented by the model once ??-coordinate errors were reduced by subtracting domain averaged vertical profiles of temperature, salinity and density before horizontal differencing was performed. Comparison of modeled and observed subtidal currents at fixed locations revealed that the model performance varies strongly with season and distance from the open boundaries. The model performs best during unstratified conditions, and in the interior of the bay. The model performs poorest during stratified conditions and in the regions where the bay is driven predominantly by remote fluctuations from the Gulf of Maine.

  18. Default Bayes Factors for Model Selection in Regression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we present a Bayes factor solution for inference in multiple regression. Bayes factors are principled measures of the relative evidence from data for various models or positions, including models that embed null hypotheses. In this regard, they may be used to state positive evidence for a lack of an effect, which is not possible…

  19. Sediment calibration strategies of Phase 5 Chesapeake Bay watershed model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, J.; Shenk, G.W.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Moyer, D.; Linker, L.C.; ,

    2005-01-01

    Sediment is a primary constituent of concern for Chesapeake Bay due to its effect on water clarity. Accurate representation of sediment processes and behavior in Chesapeake Bay watershed model is critical for developing sound load reduction strategies. Sediment calibration remains one of the most difficult components of watershed-scale assessment. This is especially true for Chesapeake Bay watershed model given the size of the watershed being modeled and complexity involved in land and stream simulation processes. To obtain the best calibration, the Chesapeake Bay program has developed four different strategies for sediment calibration of Phase 5 watershed model, including 1) comparing observed and simulated sediment rating curves for different parts of the hydrograph; 2) analyzing change of bed depth over time; 3) relating deposition/scour to total annual sediment loads; and 4) calculating "goodness-of-fit' statistics. These strategies allow a more accurate sediment calibration, and also provide some insightful information on sediment processes and behavior in Chesapeake Bay watershed.

  20. The Analysis Performance Method Naive Bayes Andssvm Determine Pattern Groups of Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitanggang, Rianto; Tulus; Situmorang, Zakarias

    2017-12-01

    Information is a very important element and into the daily needs of the moment, to get a precise and accurate information is not easy, this research can help decision makers and make a comparison. Researchers perform data mining techniques to analyze the performance of methods and algorithms naïve Bayes methods Smooth Support Vector Machine (ssvm) in the grouping of the disease.The pattern of disease that is often suffered by people in the group can be in the detection area of the collection of information contained in the medical record. Medical records have infromasi disease by patients in coded according to standard WHO. Processing of medical record data to find patterns of this group of diseases that often occur in this community take the attribute address, sex, type of disease, and age. Determining the next analysis is grouping of four ersebut attribute. From the results of research conducted on the dataset fever diabete mellitus, naïve Bayes method produces an average value of 99% and an accuracy and SSVM method produces an average value of 93% accuracy

  1. Missisquoi Bay Phosphorus Model Addendum

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This technical memorandum provides results of an extended load reduction simulation. The memorandum serves as an addendum to the main Missisquoi Bay Phosphorus Mass Balance Model report prepared for the Lake Champlain Basin Program by LimnoTech in 2012

  2. Dynamic modeling of Tampa Bay urban development using parallel computing

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Xian, G.; Crane, M.; Steinwand, D.

    2005-01-01

    Urban land use and land cover has changed significantly in the environs of Tampa Bay, Florida, over the past 50 years. Extensive urbanization has created substantial change to the region's landscape and ecosystems. This paper uses a dynamic urban-growth model, SLEUTH, which applies six geospatial data themes (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillside), to study the process of urbanization and associated land use and land cover change in the Tampa Bay area. To reduce processing time and complete the modeling process within an acceptable period, the model is recoded and ported to a Beowulf cluster. The parallel-processing computer system accomplishes the massive amount of computation the modeling simulation requires. SLEUTH calibration process for the Tampa Bay urban growth simulation spends only 10 h CPU time. The model predicts future land use/cover change trends for Tampa Bay from 1992 to 2025. Urban extent is predicted to double in the Tampa Bay watershed between 1992 and 2025. Results show an upward trend of urbanization at the expense of a decline of 58% and 80% in agriculture and forested lands, respectively.

  3. Derivation of novel human ground state naive pluripotent stem cells.

    PubMed

    Gafni, Ohad; Weinberger, Leehee; Mansour, Abed AlFatah; Manor, Yair S; Chomsky, Elad; Ben-Yosef, Dalit; Kalma, Yael; Viukov, Sergey; Maza, Itay; Zviran, Asaf; Rais, Yoach; Shipony, Zohar; Mukamel, Zohar; Krupalnik, Vladislav; Zerbib, Mirie; Geula, Shay; Caspi, Inbal; Schneir, Dan; Shwartz, Tamar; Gilad, Shlomit; Amann-Zalcenstein, Daniela; Benjamin, Sima; Amit, Ido; Tanay, Amos; Massarwa, Rada; Novershtern, Noa; Hanna, Jacob H

    2013-12-12

    of cross-species chimaeric mouse embryos that underwent organogenesis following microinjection of human naive iPS cells into mouse morulas. Collectively, our findings establish new avenues for regenerative medicine, patient-specific iPS cell disease modelling and the study of early human development in vitro and in vivo.

  4. HIV model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives.

    PubMed

    Chigidi, Esther; Lungu, Edward M

    2009-07-01

    We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc approximately 13, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc approximately equal 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

  5. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models.

    PubMed

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-12-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning the underlying covariance structure are evaluated using (fractional) Bayes factor tests. The support for a unidimensional factor (i.e., assumption of local independence) and differential item functioning are evaluated by testing the covariance components. The posterior distribution of common covariance components is obtained in closed form by transforming latent responses with an orthogonal (Helmert) matrix. This posterior distribution is defined as a shifted-inverse-gamma, thereby introducing a default prior and a balanced prior distribution. Based on that, an MCMC algorithm is described to estimate all model parameters and to compute (fractional) Bayes factor tests. Simulation studies are used to show that the (fractional) Bayes factor tests have good properties for testing the underlying covariance structure of binary response data. The method is illustrated with two real data studies.

  6. Modeling the tides of Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenter, H.L.; Signell, R.P.; Blumberg, A.F.; ,

    1993-01-01

    A time-dependent, three-dimensional numerical modeling study of the tides of Massachusetts and Cape Code Bays, motivated by construction of a new sewage treatment plant and ocean outfall for the city of Boston, has been undertaken by the authors. The numerical model being used is a hybrid version of the Blumberg and Mellor ECOM3D model, modified to include a semi-implicit time-stepping scheme and transport of a non-reactive dissolved constituent. Tides in the bays are dominated by the semi-diurnal frequencies, in particular by the M2 tide, due to the resonance of these frequencies in the Gulf of Maine. The numerical model reproduces, well, measured tidal ellipses in unstratified wintertime conditions. Stratified conditions present more of a problem because tidal-frequency internal wave generation and propagation significantly complicates the structure of the resulting tidal field. Nonetheless, the numerical model reproduces qualitative aspects of the stratified tidal flow that are consistent with observations in the bays.

  7. Modeling Fecal Indicator Bacteria Like Salt in Newport Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciglar, A. M.; Rippy, M.; Grant, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    Newport Bay is a harbor and estuary located in Orange County, CA that provides many water sports and recreational activities for millions of southern California residents and tourists. The aim of this study is to quickly assess exceedances of FIB in the Newport Bay which pose a health risk to recreational users. The ability to quickly assess water quality is made possible with an advection-diffusion mass transport model that uses easily measurable parameters such as volumetric flow rate from tributaries. Current FIB assessment methods for Newport Bay take a minimum of 24 hours to evaluate health risk by either culturing for FIB or running a more complex fluid dynamics model. By this time the FIB may have already reached the ocean outlet thus no longer posing a risk in the bay or recreationists may have already come in close contact with contaminated waters. The advection-diffusion model can process and disseminate health risk information within a few hours of flow rate measurements, minimizing time between an FIB exceedance and public awareness about the event. Data used to calibrate and validate the model was collected from January 2006 through February 2007. Salinity data was used for calibration and FIB data was used for validation. Both steady-state and transient conditions were assessed to determine if dry weather patterns can be simplified to the steady-state condition.

  8. Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Ganju, Neil K.; Butman, Bradford; Signell, Richard P.

    2017-04-01

    A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (˜0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

  9. Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Ganju, Neil K.; Butman, Bradford; Signell, Richard

    2017-01-01

    A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (∼0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

  10. Modelling Wind Effects on Subtidal Salinity in Apalachicola Bay, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, W.; Jones, W. K.; Wu, T. S.

    2002-07-01

    Salinity is an important factor for oyster and estuarine productivity in Apalachicola Bay. Observations of salinity at oyster reefs have indicated a high correlation between subtidal salinity variations and the surface winds along the bay axis in an approximately east-west direction. In this paper, we applied a calibrated hydrodynamic model to examine the surface wind effects on the volume fluxes in the tidal inlets and the subtidal salinity variations in the bay. Model simulations show that, due to the large size of inlets located at the east and west ends of this long estuary, surface winds have significant effects on the volume fluxes in the estuary inlets for the water exchanges between the estuary and ocean. In general, eastward winds cause the inflow from the inlets at the western end and the outflow from inlets at the eastern end of the bay. Winds at 15 mph speed in the east-west direction can induce a 2000 m3 s-1 inflow of saline seawater into the bay from the inlets, a rate which is about 2·6 times that of the annual average freshwater inflow from the river. Due to the varied wind-induced volume fluxes in the inlets and the circulation in the bay, the time series of subtidal salinity at oyster reefs considerably increases during strong east-west wind conditions in comparison to salinity during windless conditions. In order to have a better understanding of the characteristics of the wind-induced subtidal circulation and salinity variations, the researchers also connected model simulations under constant east-west wind conditions. Results show that the volume fluxes are linearly proportional to the east-west wind stresses. Spatial distributions of daily average salinity and currents clearly show the significant effects of winds on the bay.

  11. An Evaluation of Hierarchical Bayes Estimation for the Two- Parameter Logistic Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Seock-Ho

    Hierarchical Bayes procedures for the two-parameter logistic item response model were compared for estimating item parameters. Simulated data sets were analyzed using two different Bayes estimation procedures, the two-stage hierarchical Bayes estimation (HB2) and the marginal Bayesian with known hyperparameters (MB), and marginal maximum…

  12. Bayes factors for the linear ballistic accumulator model of decision-making.

    PubMed

    Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

    2018-04-01

    Evidence accumulation models of decision-making have led to advances in several different areas of psychology. These models provide a way to integrate response time and accuracy data, and to describe performance in terms of latent cognitive processes. Testing important psychological hypotheses using cognitive models requires a method to make inferences about different versions of the models which assume different parameters to cause observed effects. The task of model-based inference using noisy data is difficult, and has proven especially problematic with current model selection methods based on parameter estimation. We provide a method for computing Bayes factors through Monte-Carlo integration for the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA; Brown and Heathcote, 2008), a widely used evidence accumulation model. Bayes factors are used frequently for inference with simpler statistical models, and they do not require parameter estimation. In order to overcome the computational burden of estimating Bayes factors via brute force integration, we exploit general purpose graphical processing units; we provide free code for this. This approach allows estimation of Bayes factors via Monte-Carlo integration within a practical time frame. We demonstrate the method using both simulated and real data. We investigate the stability of the Monte-Carlo approximation, and the LBA's inferential properties, in simulation studies.

  13. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling study of reverse estuarine circulation: Kuwait Bay.

    PubMed

    Alosairi, Y; Pokavanich, T; Alsulaiman, N

    2018-02-01

    Hydrodynamics and associated environmental processes have always been of major concern to coastal-dependent countries, such as Kuwait. This is due to the environmental impact that accompanies the economic and commercial activities along the coastal areas. In the current study, a three-dimensional numerical model is utilized to unveil the main dynamic and physical properties of Kuwait Bay during the critical season. The model performance over the summer months (June, July and August 2012) is assessed against comprehensive field measurements of water levels, velocity, temperature and salinity data before using the model to describe the circulation as driven by tides, gravitational convection and winds. The results showed that the baroclinic conditions in the Bay are mainly determined by the horizontal salinity gradient and to much less extent temperature gradient. The gradients stretched over the southern coast of the Bay where dense water is found at the inner and enclosed areas, while relatively lighter waters are found near the mouth of the Bay. This gradient imposed a reversed estuarine circulation at the main axis of the Bay, particularly during neap tides when landward flow near the surface and seaward flow near the bed are most evident. The results also revealed that the shallow areas, including Sulaibikhat and Jahra Bays, are well mixed and generally flow in the counter-clockwise direction. Clockwise circulations dominated the northern portion of the Bay, forming a sort of large eddy, while turbulent fields associated with tidal currents were localized near the headlands. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Muscle categorization using PDF estimation and Naive Bayes classification.

    PubMed

    Adel, Tameem M; Smith, Benn E; Stashuk, Daniel W

    2012-01-01

    The structure of motor unit potentials (MUPs) and their times of occurrence provide information about the motor units (MUs) that created them. As such, electromyographic (EMG) data can be used to categorize muscles as normal or suffering from a neuromuscular disease. Using pattern discovery (PD) allows clinicians to understand the rationale underlying a certain muscle characterization; i.e. it is transparent. Discretization is required in PD, which leads to some loss in accuracy. In this work, characterization techniques that are based on estimating probability density functions (PDFs) for each muscle category are implemented. Characterization probabilities of each motor unit potential train (MUPT) are obtained from these PDFs and then Bayes rule is used to aggregate the MUPT characterization probabilities to calculate muscle level probabilities. Even though this technique is not as transparent as PD, its accuracy is higher than the discrete PD. Ultimately, the goal is to use a technique that is based on both PDFs and PD and make it as transparent and as efficient as possible, but first it was necessary to thoroughly assess how accurate a fully continuous approach can be. Using gaussian PDF estimation achieved improvements in muscle categorization accuracy over PD and further improvements resulted from using feature value histograms to choose more representative PDFs; for instance, using log-normal distribution to represent skewed histograms.

  15. Development of a Hydrodynamic and Transport model of Bellingham Bay in Support of Nearshore Habitat Restoration

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang

    2010-04-22

    In this study, a hydrodynamic model based on the unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) was developed for Bellingham Bay, Washington. The model simulates water surface elevation, velocity, temperature, and salinity in a three-dimensional domain that covers the entire Bellingham Bay and adjacent water bodies, including Lummi Bay, Samish Bay, Padilla Bay, and Rosario Strait. The model was developed using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s high-resolution Puget Sound and Northwest Straits circulation and transport model. A sub-model grid for Bellingham Bay and adjacent coastal waters was extracted from the Puget Sound model and refined in Bellingham Bay using bathymetric lightmore » detection and ranging (LIDAR) and river channel cross-section data. The model uses tides, river inflows, and meteorological inputs to predict water surface elevations, currents, salinity, and temperature. A tidal open boundary condition was specified using standard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions. Temperature and salinity open boundary conditions were specified based on observed data. Meteorological forcing (wind, solar radiation, and net surface heat flux) was obtained from NOAA real observations and National Center for Environmental Prediction North American Regional Analysis outputs. The model was run in parallel with 48 cores using a time step of 2.5 seconds. It took 18 hours of cpu time to complete 26 days of simulation. The model was calibrated with oceanographic field data for the period of 6/1/2009 to 6/26/2009. These data were collected specifically for the purpose of model development and calibration. They include time series of water-surface elevation, currents, temperature, and salinity as well as temperature and salinity profiles during instrument deployment and retrieval. Comparisons between model predictions and field observations show an overall reasonable agreement in both temporal and spatial scales

  16. Mid-Bay Islands Hydrodynamics and Sedimentation Modeling Study, Chesapeake Bay

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    largest estuary in the United States, extending more than 150 miles from its seaward end at the Atlantic Ocean to the bayward end at the entrance to...water enters the bay from more than 150 major rivers and streams at approximately 80,000 cu ft/sec. Ocean tides enter the bay through the Atlantic ...Ocean entrance and C&D Canal. The mean range of tides in the bay varies from approximately 1 ft on the western shore to 3 ft at the Atlantic Ocean

  17. Relevance popularity: A term event model based feature selection scheme for text classification.

    PubMed

    Feng, Guozhong; An, Baiguo; Yang, Fengqin; Wang, Han; Zhang, Libiao

    2017-01-01

    Feature selection is a practical approach for improving the performance of text classification methods by optimizing the feature subsets input to classifiers. In traditional feature selection methods such as information gain and chi-square, the number of documents that contain a particular term (i.e. the document frequency) is often used. However, the frequency of a given term appearing in each document has not been fully investigated, even though it is a promising feature to produce accurate classifications. In this paper, we propose a new feature selection scheme based on a term event Multinomial naive Bayes probabilistic model. According to the model assumptions, the matching score function, which is based on the prediction probability ratio, can be factorized. Finally, we derive a feature selection measurement for each term after replacing inner parameters by their estimators. On a benchmark English text datasets (20 Newsgroups) and a Chinese text dataset (MPH-20), our numerical experiment results obtained from using two widely used text classifiers (naive Bayes and support vector machine) demonstrate that our method outperformed the representative feature selection methods.

  18. Evaluation of Interruption Behavior by Naive Encoders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coon, Christine A.; Schwanenflugel, Paula J.

    1996-01-01

    Determines the characteristics of interactions that influence judgments of interruption behavior in naive observers. Asks subjects to decide whether an example of an interruption was an interruption and then rate it in terms of how "good" or "bad" it was. Finds that naive observers use some of the same features described in…

  19. Spatially and Temporally Detailed Modeling of Water Quality in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nutrient loading to Narragansett Bay has led to eutrophication, resulting in hypoxia and anoxia, finfish and shellfish kills, loss of seagrass, and reductions in the recreational and economic value of the Bay. We are developing a model that simulates the effects of external nutri...

  20. Tidal oscillation of sediment between a river and a bay: A conceptual model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.; Warner, J.C.; Barad, M.F.; Schladow, S.G.

    2004-01-01

    A conceptual model of fine sediment transport between a river and a bay is proposed, based on observations at two rivers feeding the same bay. The conceptual model consists of river, transitional, and bay regimes. Within the transitional regime, resuspension, advection, and deposition create a mass of sediment that oscillates landward and seaward. While suspended, this sediment mass forms an estuarine turbidity maximum. At slack tides this sediment mass temporarily deposits on the bed, creating landward and seaward deposits. Tidal excursion and slack tide deposition limit the range of the sediment mass. To verify this conceptual model, data from two small tributary rivers of San Pablo Bay are presented. Tidal variability of suspended-sediment concentration markedly differs between the landward and seaward deposits, allowing interpretation of the intratidal movement of the oscillating sediment mass. Application of this model in suitable estuaries will assist in numerical model calibration as well as in data interpretation. A similar model has been applied to some larger-scale European estuaries, which bear a geometric resemblance to the systems analyzed in this study. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Identification of protein-interacting nucleotides in a RNA sequence using composition profile of tri-nucleotides.

    PubMed

    Panwar, Bharat; Raghava, Gajendra P S

    2015-04-01

    The RNA-protein interactions play a diverse role in the cells, thus identification of RNA-protein interface is essential for the biologist to understand their function. In the past, several methods have been developed for predicting RNA interacting residues in proteins, but limited efforts have been made for the identification of protein-interacting nucleotides in RNAs. In order to discriminate protein-interacting and non-interacting nucleotides, we used various classifiers (NaiveBayes, NaiveBayesMultinomial, BayesNet, ComplementNaiveBayes, MultilayerPerceptron, J48, SMO, RandomForest, SMO and SVM(light)) for prediction model development using various features and achieved highest 83.92% sensitivity, 84.82 specificity, 84.62% accuracy and 0.62 Matthew's correlation coefficient by SVM(light) based models. We observed that certain tri-nucleotides like ACA, ACC, AGA, CAC, CCA, GAG, UGA, and UUU preferred in protein-interaction. All the models have been developed using a non-redundant dataset and are evaluated using five-fold cross validation technique. A web-server called RNApin has been developed for the scientific community (http://crdd.osdd.net/raghava/rnapin/). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Projected 2050 Model Simulations for the Chesapeake Bay ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Chesapeake Bay Program as has been tasked with assessing how changes in climate systems are expected to alter key variables and processes within the Watershed in concurrence with land use changes. EPA’s Office of Research and Development will be conducting historic and future, 2050, Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) metrological and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) chemical transport model simulations to provide meteorological and nutrient deposition estimates for inclusion of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s assessment of how climate and land use change may impact water quality and ecosystem health. This presentation will present the timeline and research updates. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

  3. A Tidally Averaged Sediment-Transport Model for San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2009-01-01

    A tidally averaged sediment-transport model of San Francisco Bay was incorporated into a tidally averaged salinity box model previously developed and calibrated using salinity, a conservative tracer (Uncles and Peterson, 1995; Knowles, 1996). The Bay is represented in the model by 50 segments composed of two layers: one representing the channel (>5-meter depth) and the other the shallows (0- to 5-meter depth). Calculations are made using a daily time step and simulations can be made on the decadal time scale. The sediment-transport model includes an erosion-deposition algorithm, a bed-sediment algorithm, and sediment boundary conditions. Erosion and deposition of bed sediments are calculated explicitly, and suspended sediment is transported by implicitly solving the advection-dispersion equation. The bed-sediment model simulates the increase in bed strength with depth, owing to consolidation of fine sediments that make up San Francisco Bay mud. The model is calibrated to either net sedimentation calculated from bathymetric-change data or measured suspended-sediment concentration. Specified boundary conditions are the tributary fluxes of suspended sediment and suspended-sediment concentration in the Pacific Ocean. Results of model calibration and validation show that the model simulates the trends in suspended-sediment concentration associated with tidal fluctuations, residual velocity, and wind stress well, although the spring neap tidal suspended-sediment concentration variability was consistently underestimated. Model validation also showed poor simulation of seasonal sediment pulses from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at Point San Pablo because the pulses enter the Bay over only a few days and the fate of the pulses is determined by intra-tidal deposition and resuspension that are not included in this tidally averaged model. The model was calibrated to net-basin sedimentation to calculate budgets of sediment and sediment-associated contaminants. While

  4. Moving in Parallel Toward a Modern Modeling Epistemology: Bayes Factors and Frequentist Modeling Methods.

    PubMed

    Rodgers, Joseph Lee

    2016-01-01

    The Bayesian-frequentist debate typically portrays these statistical perspectives as opposing views. However, both Bayesian and frequentist statisticians have expanded their epistemological basis away from a singular focus on the null hypothesis, to a broader perspective involving the development and comparison of competing statistical/mathematical models. For frequentists, statistical developments such as structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling have facilitated this transition. For Bayesians, the Bayes factor has facilitated this transition. The Bayes factor is treated in articles within this issue of Multivariate Behavioral Research. The current presentation provides brief commentary on those articles and more extended discussion of the transition toward a modern modeling epistemology. In certain respects, Bayesians and frequentists share common goals.

  5. Intra-articular clearance of labeled dextrans from naive and arthritic rat knee joints.

    PubMed

    Mwangi, Timothy K; Berke, Ian M; Nieves, Eduardo H; Bell, Richard D; Adams, Samuel B; Setton, Lori A

    2018-05-26

    Determine the effects of arthritis on the trans-synovial clearance of small and large model compounds following local delivery to the knee joint in a rat model. Intra-articular delivery was studied in rat knee joints in an osteoarthritis model of joint instability (medial collateral ligament and meniscus transection model or MMT). Fluorescently-labeled 10 kDa or 500 kDa dextran was injected in the arthritic or unoperated control (naive) joints 3 weeks after surgical destabilization, and the temporal clearance pattern was evaluated via in vivo regional fluorescence imaging, dextran concentrations in plasma and draining lymph nodes, and by quantification of fluorescence in histological synovium sections. Together these data were used to evaluate the effect of osteoarthritis and solute size on the rate of drug clearance from the joint. Clearance of 10 kDa dextran from the joint space quantified using in vivo fluorescence imaging of the knee joint region was not significantly different between naive and MMT joints. In contrast, clearance of 500 kDa dextran was significantly reduced for MMT joints when compared to naive joints by fluorescence in vivo imaging. Drug accumulation in lymph nodes and plasma were lower for the 500 kDa dextran as compared to 10 kDa dextran, and lymph node levels were further reduced with the presence of osteoarthritis. Furthermore, synovium was significantly thicker in MMT joints than in naive joints and image analysis of joint tissue sections revealed different trans-synovial distributions of 10 and 500 kDa dextran. Large macromolecules were retained in the arthritic joint longer than in the healthy joint, while smaller molecules were cleared similarly in healthy and arthritic joints. In vivo fluorescence imaging, plasma and lymph node concentrations, and spatial distributions of drug fluorescence identified differences in higher molecular weight clearance between naive and arthritic disease states. Findings may relate to a

  6. Modified Mahalanobis Taguchi System for Imbalance Data Classification

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    The Mahalanobis Taguchi System (MTS) is considered one of the most promising binary classification algorithms to handle imbalance data. Unfortunately, MTS lacks a method for determining an efficient threshold for the binary classification. In this paper, a nonlinear optimization model is formulated based on minimizing the distance between MTS Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and the theoretical optimal point named Modified Mahalanobis Taguchi System (MMTS). To validate the MMTS classification efficacy, it has been benchmarked with Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Naive Bayes (NB), Probabilistic Mahalanobis Taguchi Systems (PTM), Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), Adaptive Conformal Transformation (ACT), Kernel Boundary Alignment (KBA), Hidden Naive Bayes (HNB), and other improved Naive Bayes algorithms. MMTS outperforms the benchmarked algorithms especially when the imbalance ratio is greater than 400. A real life case study on manufacturing sector is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and to compare its performance with Mahalanobis Genetic Algorithm (MGA). PMID:28811820

  7. Risk of erectile dysfunction in transfusion-naive thalassemia men: a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2015-04-01

    Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction. This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities.

  8. Neural network modelling of planform geometry of headland-bay beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, G.; López, I.; Castro, A.; Carballo, R.

    2009-02-01

    The shoreline of beaches in the lee of coastal salients or man-made structures, usually known as headland-bay beaches, has a distinctive curvature; wave fronts curve as a result of wave diffraction at the headland and in turn cause the shoreline to bend. The ensuing curved planform is of great interest both as a peculiar landform and in the context of engineering projects in which it is necessary to predict how a coastal structure will affect the sandy shoreline in its lee. A number of empirical models have been put forward, each based on a specific equation. A novel approach, based on the application of artificial neural networks, is presented in this work. Unlike the conventional method, no particular equation of the planform is embedded in the model. Instead, it is the model itself that learns about the problem from a series of examples of headland-bay beaches (the training set) and thereafter applies this self-acquired knowledge to other cases (the test set) for validation. Twenty-three headland-bay beaches from around the world were selected, of which sixteen and seven make up the training and test sets, respectively. As there is no well-developed theory for deciding upon the most convenient neural network architecture to deal with a particular data set, an experimental study was conducted in which ten different architectures with one and two hidden neuron layers and five training algorithms - 50 different options combining network architecture and training algorithm - were compared. Each of these options was implemented, trained and tested in order to find the best-performing approach for modelling the planform of headland-bay beaches. Finally, the selected neural network model was compared with a state-of-the-art planform model and was shown to outperform it.

  9. Numerical modeling of general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

    2018-01-01

    Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea, Iran. The bay is recognized as a resting place for migratory birds as well as a spawning habitat for native fish. However, apparently, no detailed research on its physical processes has previously been conducted. In this study, a 3D coupled hydrodynamic and solute transport model was used to investigate general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay. Model outputs were validated against a set of field observations. Bottom friction and attenuation coefficient of light intensity were tuned in order to achieve optimum agreement with the observations. Results revealed that, due to the interaction between bathymetry and prevailing winds, a barotropic double-gyre circulation, dominating the general circulation, existed during all seasons in Gorgan Bay. Furthermore, temperature and salinity fluctuations in the bay were seasonal, due to the seasonal variability of atmospheric fluxes. Results also indicated that under the prevailing winds, the domain-averaged residence time in Gorgan Bay would be approximately 95 days. The rivers discharging into Gorgan Bay are considered as the main sources of nutrients in the bay. Since their mouths are located in the area with a residence time of over 100 days, Gorgan Bay could be at risk of eutrophication; it is necessary to adopt preventive measures against water quality degradation.

  10. Spatially and Temporally Detailed Modeling of Water Quality in Narragansett Bay (AGU)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nutrient loading to Narragansett Bay has led to eutrophication, resulting in hypoxia and anoxia, finfish and shellfish kills, loss of seagrass, and reductions in the recreational and economic value of the Bay. We are developing a model that simulates the effects of external nutri...

  11. Simultaneous learning and filtering without delusions: a Bayes-optimal combination of Predictive Inference and Adaptive Filtering.

    PubMed

    Kneissler, Jan; Drugowitsch, Jan; Friston, Karl; Butz, Martin V

    2015-01-01

    Predictive coding appears to be one of the fundamental working principles of brain processing. Amongst other aspects, brains often predict the sensory consequences of their own actions. Predictive coding resembles Kalman filtering, where incoming sensory information is filtered to produce prediction errors for subsequent adaptation and learning. However, to generate prediction errors given motor commands, a suitable temporal forward model is required to generate predictions. While in engineering applications, it is usually assumed that this forward model is known, the brain has to learn it. When filtering sensory input and learning from the residual signal in parallel, a fundamental problem arises: the system can enter a delusional loop when filtering the sensory information using an overly trusted forward model. In this case, learning stalls before accurate convergence because uncertainty about the forward model is not properly accommodated. We present a Bayes-optimal solution to this generic and pernicious problem for the case of linear forward models, which we call Predictive Inference and Adaptive Filtering (PIAF). PIAF filters incoming sensory information and learns the forward model simultaneously. We show that PIAF is formally related to Kalman filtering and to the Recursive Least Squares linear approximation method, but combines these procedures in a Bayes optimal fashion. Numerical evaluations confirm that the delusional loop is precluded and that the learning of the forward model is more than 10-times faster when compared to a naive combination of Kalman filtering and Recursive Least Squares.

  12. Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model (TBWCM): As a Predictive Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model was developed as a predictive tool for estimating the impact of changing nutrient loads on water clarity as measured by secchi depth. The model combines a physical mixing model with an irradiance model and nutrient cycling model. A 10 segment bi...

  13. The Preference for Symmetry in Flower-Naive and Not-so-Naive Bumblebees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plowright, C. M. S.; Evans, S. A.; Leung, J. Chew; Collin, C. A.

    2011-01-01

    Truly flower-naive bumblebees, with no prior rewarded experience for visits on any visual patterns outside the colony, were tested for their choice of bilaterally symmetric over asymmetric patterns in a radial-arm maze. No preference for symmetry was found. Prior training with rewarded black and white disks did, however, lead to a significant…

  14. A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction

    PubMed Central

    Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José Cricelio; Luna-Vázquez, Francisco Javier; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat; Herrera-Morales, José R.; Buenrostro-Mariscal, Raymundo

    2017-01-01

    There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD) term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments. PMID:28391241

  15. A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction.

    PubMed

    Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José Cricelio; Luna-Vázquez, Francisco Javier; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat; Herrera-Morales, José R; Buenrostro-Mariscal, Raymundo

    2017-06-07

    There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD) term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments. Copyright © 2017 Montesinos-López et al.

  16. Evaluation of supervised machine-learning algorithms to distinguish between inflammatory bowel disease and alimentary lymphoma in cats.

    PubMed

    Awaysheh, Abdullah; Wilcke, Jeffrey; Elvinger, François; Rees, Loren; Fan, Weiguo; Zimmerman, Kurt L

    2016-11-01

    Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and alimentary lymphoma (ALA) are common gastrointestinal diseases in cats. The very similar clinical signs and histopathologic features of these diseases make the distinction between them diagnostically challenging. We tested the use of supervised machine-learning algorithms to differentiate between the 2 diseases using data generated from noninvasive diagnostic tests. Three prediction models were developed using 3 machine-learning algorithms: naive Bayes, decision trees, and artificial neural networks. The models were trained and tested on data from complete blood count (CBC) and serum chemistry (SC) results for the following 3 groups of client-owned cats: normal, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), or alimentary lymphoma (ALA). Naive Bayes and artificial neural networks achieved higher classification accuracy (sensitivities of 70.8% and 69.2%, respectively) than the decision tree algorithm (63%, p < 0.0001). The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for classifying cases into the 3 categories was 83% by naive Bayes, 79% by decision tree, and 82% by artificial neural networks. Prediction models using machine learning provided a method for distinguishing between ALA-IBD, ALA-normal, and IBD-normal. The naive Bayes and artificial neural networks classifiers used 10 and 4 of the CBC and SC variables, respectively, to outperform the C4.5 decision tree, which used 5 CBC and SC variables in classifying cats into the 3 classes. These models can provide another noninvasive diagnostic tool to assist clinicians with differentiating between IBD and ALA, and between diseased and nondiseased cats. © 2016 The Author(s).

  17. Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

    PubMed

    Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2013-03-06

    Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing

  18. Predicting tidal currents in San Francisco Bay using a spectral model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burau, Jon R.; Cheng, Ralph T.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes the formulation of a spectral (or frequency based) model which solves the linearized shallow water equations. To account for highly variable basin bathymetry, spectral solutions are obtained using the finite element method which allows the strategic placement of the computation points in the specific areas of interest or in areas where the gradients of the dependent variables are expected to be large. Model results are compared with data using simple statistics to judge overall model performance in the San Francisco Bay estuary. Once the model is calibrated and verified, prediction of the tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay is accomplished by applying astronomical tides (harmonic constants deduced from field data) at the prediction time along the model boundaries.

  19. The Hayflick Limit May Determine the Effective Clonal Diversity of Naive T Cells.

    PubMed

    Ndifon, Wilfred; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2016-06-15

    Having a large number of sufficiently abundant T cell clones is important for adequate protection against diseases. However, as shown in this paper and elsewhere, between young adulthood and >70 y of age the effective clonal diversity of naive CD4/CD8 T cells found in human blood declines by a factor of >10. (Effective clonal diversity accounts for both the number and the abundance of T cell clones.) The causes of this observation are incompletely understood. A previous study proposed that it might result from the emergence of certain rare, replication-enhancing mutations in T cells. In this paper, we propose an even simpler explanation: that it results from the loss of T cells that have attained replicative senescence (i.e., the Hayflick limit). Stochastic numerical simulations of naive T cell population dynamics, based on experimental parameters, show that the rate of homeostatic T cell proliferation increases after the age of ∼60 y because naive T cells collectively approach replicative senescence. This leads to a sharp decline of effective clonal diversity after ∼70 y, in agreement with empirical data. A mathematical analysis predicts that, without an increase in the naive T cell proliferation rate, this decline will occur >50 yr later than empirically observed. These results are consistent with a model in which exhaustion of the proliferative capacity of naive T cells causes a sharp decline of their effective clonal diversity and imply that therapeutic potentiation of thymopoiesis might either prevent or reverse this outcome. Copyright © 2016 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

  20. [Application of Bayes Probability Model in Differentiation of Yin and Yang Jaundice Syndromes in Neonates].

    PubMed

    Mu, Chun-sun; Zhang, Ping; Kong, Chun-yan; Li, Yang-ning

    2015-09-01

    To study the application of Bayes probability model in differentiating yin and yang jaundice syndromes in neonates. Totally 107 jaundice neonates who admitted to hospital within 10 days after birth were assigned to two groups according to syndrome differentiation, 68 in the yang jaundice syndrome group and 39 in the yin jaundice syndrome group. Data collected for neonates were factors related to jaundice before, during and after birth. Blood routines, liver and renal functions, and myocardial enzymes were tested on the admission day or the next day. Logistic regression model and Bayes discriminating analysis were used to screen factors important for yin and yang jaundice syndrome differentiation. Finally, Bayes probability model for yin and yang jaundice syndromes was established and assessed. Factors important for yin and yang jaundice syndrome differentiation screened by Logistic regression model and Bayes discriminating analysis included mothers' age, mother with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), gestational age, asphyxia, or ABO hemolytic diseases, red blood cell distribution width (RDW-SD), platelet-large cell ratio (P-LCR), serum direct bilirubin (DBIL), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), cholinesterase (CHE). Bayes discriminating analysis was performed by SPSS to obtain Bayes discriminant function coefficient. Bayes discriminant function was established according to discriminant function coefficients. Yang jaundice syndrome: y1= -21. 701 +2. 589 x mother's age + 1. 037 x GDM-17. 175 x asphyxia + 13. 876 x gestational age + 6. 303 x ABO hemolytic disease + 2.116 x RDW-SD + 0. 831 x DBIL + 0. 012 x ALP + 1. 697 x LCR + 0. 001 x CHE; Yin jaundice syndrome: y2= -33. 511 + 2.991 x mother's age + 3.960 x GDM-12. 877 x asphyxia + 11. 848 x gestational age + 1. 820 x ABO hemolytic disease +2. 231 x RDW-SD +0. 999 x DBIL +0. 023 x ALP +1. 916 x LCR +0. 002 x CHE. Bayes discriminant function was hypothesis tested and got Wilks' λ =0. 393 (P =0. 000). So Bayes

  1. Classification of Indonesian quote on Twitter using Naïve Bayes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachmadany, A.; Pranoto, Y. M.; Gunawan; Multazam, M. T.; Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Abdullah, A. G.; Widiaty, I.

    2018-01-01

    Quote is sentences made in the hope that someone can become strong personalities, individuals who always improve themselves to move forward and achieve success. Social media is a place for people to express his heart to the world that sometimes the expression of the heart is quotes. Here, the purpose of this study was to classify Indonesian quote on Twitter using Naïve Bayes. This experiment uses text classification from Twitter data written by Twitter users which are quote then classification again grouped into 6 categories (Love, Life, Motivation, Education, Religion, Others). The language used is Indonesian. The method used is Naive Bayes. The results of this experiment are a web application collection of Indonesian quote that have been classified. This classification gives the user ease in finding quote based on class or keyword. For example, when a user wants to find a 'motivation' quote, this classification would be very useful.

  2. A nowcast model for tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cheng, Ralph T.; Smith, Richard E.

    1998-01-01

    National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) installed Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS) in San Francisco Bay, California to provide observations of tides, tidal currents, and meteorological conditions. PORTS data are used for optimizing vessel operations, increasing margin of safety for navigation, and guiding hazardous material spill prevention and response. Because tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay are extremely complex, limited real-time observations are insufficient to provide spatial resolution for variations of tides and tidal currents. To fill the information gaps, a highresolution, robust, semi-implicit, finite-difference nowcast numerical model has been implemented for San Francisco Bay. The model grid and water depths are defined on coordinates based on Mercator projection so the model outputs can be directly superimposed on navigation charts. A data assimilation algorithm has been established to derive the boundary conditions for model simulations. The nowcast model is executed every hour continuously for tides and tidal currents starting from 24 hours before the present time (now) covering a total of 48 hours simulation. Forty-eight hours of nowcast model results are available to the public at all times through the World Wide Web (WWW). Users can view and download the nowcast model results for tides and tidal current distributions in San Francisco Bay for their specific applications and for further analysis.

  3. Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model’s marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results We here assess the original ‘model-switch’ path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model’s marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to

  4. Hydrodynamics and Eutrophication Model Study of Indian River and Rehoboth Bay, Delaware

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-05-01

    Station, Vicksburg, MS. V Chapter I: Introduction The Study System Indian River and Rehoboth Bay (Figure 1-1) are two water bodies that form part of the...and mass trans- port throughout the system . Objectives The primary objective of this study is to provide a hydrodynamic/ water quality model packge of...portion opens out into Indian River Bay (Figure 3-1). The cooling water diversion was included in the hydrodynamic model. Flow through the power plant, at

  5. Development, implementation, and validation of a modeling system for the San Francisco Bay and Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chao, Yi; Farrara, John D.; Zhang, Hongchun; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Ateljevich, Eli; Chai, Fei; Davis, Curtiss O.; Dugdale, Richard; Wilkerson, Frances

    2017-07-01

    A three-dimensional numerical modeling system for the San Francisco Bay is presented. The system is based on an unstructured grid numerical model known as Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM). The lateral boundary condition is provided by a regional coastal ocean model. The surface forcing is provided by a regional atmospheric model. The SCHISM results from a decadal hindcast run are compared with available tide gauge data, as well as a collection of temperature and salinity profiles. An examination of the observed climatological annual mean salinities at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) stations shows the highest salinities to be in the open ocean and the lowest well north (upstream) of the Central Bay, a pattern that does not change substantially with season. The corresponding mean SCHISM salinities reproduced the observed variations with location quite well, though with a fresh bias. The lowest values within the Bay occur during spring and the highest values during autumn, mirroring the seasonal variations in river discharge. The corresponding observed mean temperatures within the Bay were 2 to 3° C cooler in the Central Bay than to either the north or south. This observed pattern of a cooler Central Bay was not particularly well reproduced in the SCHISM results, which also showed a cold bias. Examination of the seasonal means revealed that the cool Central Bay pattern is found only during summer in the SCHISM results. The persistent cold and fresh biases in the model control run were nearly eliminated in a sensitivity run with modifications to the surface heat flux and river discharge. The surface atmospheric forcing and the heat flux at the western boundary are found to be the two major terms in a SCHISM-based heat budget analysis of the mean seasonal temperature cycle for the Central Bay. In the Central Bay salt budget, freshwater discharged by rivers into upstream portions of the Bay to the north balanced by the

  6. Development of a finite volume two-dimensional model and its application in a bay with two inlets: Mobile Bay, Alabama

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jun; Lee, Jungwoo; Yun, Sang-Leen; Oh, Hye-Cheol

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a two-dimensional shallow water flow model using the finite volume method on a combined unstructured triangular and quadrilateral grid system to simulate coastal, estuarine and river flows. The intercell numerical fluxes were calculated using the classical Osher-Solomon's approximate Riemann solver for the governing conservation laws to be able to handle wetting and drying processes and to capture a tidal bore like phenomenon. The developed model was validated with several benchmark test problems including the two-dimensional dam-break problem. The model results were well agreed with results of other models and experimental results in literature. The unstructured triangular and quadrilateral combined grid system was successfully implemented in the model, thus the developed model would be more flexible when applying in an estuarine system, which includes narrow channels. Then, the model was tested in Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA. The developed model reproduced water surface elevation well as having overall Predictive Skill of 0.98. We found that the primary inlet, Main Pass, only covered 35% of the fresh water exchange while it covered 89% of the total water exchange between the ocean and Mobile Bay. There were also discharge phase difference between MP and the secondary inlet, Pass aux Herons, and this phase difference in flows would act as a critical role in substances' exchange between the eastern Mississippi Sound and the northern Gulf of Mexico through Main Pass and Pass aux Herons in Mobile Bay.

  7. Impact of glider data assimilation on the Monterey Bay model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shulman, Igor; Rowley, Clark; Anderson, Stephanie; DeRada, Sergio; Kindle, John; Martin, Paul; Doyle, James; Cummings, James; Ramp, Steve; Chavez, Francisco; Fratantoni, David; Davis, Russ

    2009-02-01

    Glider observations were essential components of the observational program in the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay area during summer of 2003. This paper is focused on the impact of the assimilation of glider temperature and salinity observations on the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) predictions of surface and subsurface properties. The modeling system consists of an implementation of the NCOM model using a curvilinear, orthogonal grid with 1-4 km resolution, with finest resolution around the bay. The model receives open boundary conditions from a regional (9 km resolution) NCOM implementation for the California Current System, and surface fluxes from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model at 3 km resolution. The data assimilation component of the system is a version of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, which is used for assimilation of the glider data into the NCOM model of the Monterey Bay area. The NCODA is a fully 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity. Assimilation of glider data improves the surface temperature at the mooring locations for the NCOM model hindcast and nowcasts, and for the short-range (1-1.5 days) forecasts. It is shown that it is critical to have accurate atmospheric forcing for more extended forecasts. Assimilation of glider data provided better agreement with independent observations (for example, with aircraft measured SSTs) of the model-predicted and observed spatial distributions of surface temperature and salinity. Mooring observations of subsurface temperature and salinity show sharp changes in the thermocline and halocline depths during transitions from upwelling to relaxation and vice versa. The non-assimilative run also shows these transitions in subsurface temperature; but they are not as well defined. For salinity, the

  8. First Step Towards a Coastal Modelling System for South Africa: a St. Helena Bay Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, C.; Lamont, T.; Loveday, B. R.; Hermes, J. C.; Veitch, J.; Backeberg, B.

    2016-02-01

    St. Helena Bay, forming part of the southern Benguela ecosystem, is the largest bay on the west coast of South Africa and is a biologically important region for pelagic fish, hake, and rock lobster. To date, only a few infrequent studies have focussed on variations in the bay scale circulation. A monthly ship-based monitoring line, the St. Helena Bay Monitoring Line (SHBML), was initiated in 2000 to determine the seasonal changes in cross-shelf hydrography and biology. Even though there has been an increase in ocean modelling in and around South Africa in recent years, coastal modelling is still in its infancy. The 12-year observational data set in the St. Helena Bay region, the only long-term, cross-shelf, full water column data-set for South Africa, makes this area the perfect natural laboratory for the development of a coastal modelling system. In this study, the climatological mean temperature and salinity from three different ROMS simulations and a HYCOM simulation are evaluated against the in situ observations from the SHBML with the aim of determining the influence of different forcing products, horizontal and vertical resolution as well as vertical coordinate schemes on the vertical structure of the ocean. The model simulations tend to overestimate the temperature and salinity across the shelf, and particularly within St. Helena Bay. Furthermore, the models misrepresent the vertical salinity and temperature structures. Interestingly, below 800m, there is a better agreement between temperature in the models and the in-situ observations. This is the first detailed comparison of modelled and in-situ data for the greater St. Helena Bay area at this scale and the next phase will examine whether the model that is most congruent with the observations resolves the same interannual signals as observed in the in-situ data.

  9. PMT waveform modeling at the Daya Bay experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sören, Jetter; Dan, Dwyer; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Liu, Da-Wei; Wang, Yi-Fang; Wang, Zhi-Min; Wen, Liang-Jian

    2012-08-01

    Detailed measurements of Hamamatsu R5912 photomultiplier signals are presented, including the single photoelectron charge response, waveform shape, nonlinearity, saturation, overshoot, oscillation, prepulsing, and afterpulsing. The results were used to build a detailed model of the PMT signal characteristics over a wide range of light intensities. Including the PMT model in simulated Daya Bay particle interactions shows no significant systematic effects that are detrimental to the experimental sensitivity.

  10. Two modeling strategies for empirical Bayes estimation

    PubMed Central

    Efron, Bradley

    2014-01-01

    Empirical Bayes methods use the data from parallel experiments, for instance observations Xk ~ 𝒩 (Θk, 1) for k = 1, 2, …, N, to estimate the conditional distributions Θk|Xk. There are two main estimation strategies: modeling on the θ space, called “g-modeling” here, and modeling on the×space, called “f-modeling.” The two approaches are de- scribed and compared. A series of computational formulas are developed to assess their frequentist accuracy. Several examples, both contrived and genuine, show the strengths and limitations of the two strategies. PMID:25324592

  11. A trophic model of fringing coral reefs in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan suggests overfishing.

    PubMed

    Liu, Pi-Jen; Shao, Kwang-Tsao; Jan, Rong-Quen; Fan, Tung-Yung; Wong, Saou-Lien; Hwang, Jiang-Shiou; Chen, Jen-Ping; Chen, Chung-Chi; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2009-09-01

    Several coral reefs of Nanwan Bay, Taiwan have recently undergone shifts to macroalgal or sea anemone dominance. Thus, a mass-balance trophic model was constructed to analyze the structure and functioning of the food web. The fringing reef model was comprised of 18 compartments, with the highest trophic level of 3.45 for piscivorous fish. Comparative analyses with other reef models demonstrated that Nanwan Bay was similar to reefs with high fishery catches. While coral biomass was not lower, fish biomass was lower than those of reefs with high catches. Consequently, the sums of consumption and respiratory flows and total system throughput were also decreased. The Nanwan Bay model potentially suggests an overfished status in which the mean trophic level of the catch, matter cycling, and trophic transfer efficiency are extremely reduced.

  12. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, J M; Rhodes, M; Brown, C W; Hood, R R; Leight, A; Long, W; Wood, R

    2014-11-01

    To construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters of Chesapeake Bay for implementation in ecological forecasting systems. We evaluated and applied previously published qPCR assays to water samples (n = 1636) collected from Chesapeake Bay from 2007-2010 in conjunction with State water quality monitoring programmes. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

  13. Linking selenium sources to ecosystems: San Francisco Bay-Delta Model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Presser, Theresa S.; Luoma, Samuel N.

    2004-01-01

    Marine sedimentary rocks of the Coast Ranges contribute selenium to soil, surface water, and ground water in the western San Joaquin Valley, California. Irrigation funnels selenium into a network of subsurface drains and canals. Proposals to build a master drain (i.e., San Luis Drain) to discharge into the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary remain as controversial today as they were in the 1950s, when drainage outside the San Joaquin Valley was first considered. An existing 85-mile portion of the San Luis Drain was closed in 1986 after fish mortality and deformities in ducks, grebes and coots were discovered at Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge, the temporary terminus of the drain. A 28-mile portion of the drain now conveys drainage from 100,000 acres into the San Joaquin River and eventually into the Bay-Delta. If the San Luis Drain is extended directly to the Bay-Delta, as is now being proposed as an alternative to sustain agriculture, it could receive drainage from an estimated one-million acres of farmland affected by rising water tables and increasing salinity. In addition to agricultural sources, oil refineries also discharge selenium to the Bay-Delta, although those discharges have declined in recent years. To understand the effects of changing selenium inputs, scientists have developed the Bay-Delta Selenium Model.

  14. Modeling Total Suspended Solids (TSS) Concentrations in Narragansett Bay.

    EPA Science Inventory

    This work covers mechanistic modeling of suspended particulates in estuarine systems with an application to Narragansett Bay, RI. Suspended particles directly affect water clarity and attenuate light in the water column. Water clarity affects both phytoplankton and submerged aqua...

  15. Recreating the 1950’s Chesapeake Bay: Use of a Network Model to Guide the Application of a Eutrophication Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-08-01

    14. Comparison of surface light extinction for base and 1950’ s RMB2 results in the upper, mid, and lower regions of the Chesapeake Bay...Lower Bay Light Extinction Surface 1950 Lower Bay Light Extinction Surface Figure 14. Comparison of surface light extinction for base and 1950’ s RMB2...ER D C/ EL T R -0 9 -9 System-Wide Water Resources Program Recreating the 1950’ s Chesapeake Bay: Use of a Network Model to Guide the

  16. Modeling the 1958 Lituya Bay mega-tsunami with a PVM-IFCP GPU-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Vida, José M.; Arcas, Diego; de la Asunción, Marc; Castro, Manuel J.; Macías, Jorge; Ortega, Sergio; Sánchez-Linares, Carlos; Titov, Vasily

    2013-04-01

    In this work we present a numerical study, performed in collaboration with the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (USA), that uses a GPU version of the PVM-IFCP landslide model for the simulation of the 1958 landslide generated tsunami of Lituya Bay. In this model, a layer composed of fluidized granular material is assumed to flow within an upper layer of an inviscid fluid (e. g. water). The model is discretized using a two dimensional PVM-IFCP [Fernández - Castro - Parés. On an Intermediate Field Capturing Riemann Solver Based on a Parabolic Viscosity Matrix for the Two-Layer Shallow Water System, J. Sci. Comput., 48 (2011):117-140] finite volume scheme implemented on GPU cards for increasing the speed-up. This model has been previously validated by using the two-dimensional physical laboratory experiments data from H. Fritz [Lituya Bay Landslide Impact Generated Mega-Tsunami 50th Anniversary. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166 (2009) pp. 153-175]. In the present work, the first step was to reconstruct the topobathymetry of the Lituya Bay before this event ocurred, this is based on USGS geological surveys data. Then, a sensitivity analysis of some model parameters has been performed in order to determine the parameters that better fit to reality, when model results are compared against available event data, as run-up areas. In this presentation, the reconstruction of the pre-tsunami scenario will be shown, a detailed simulation of the tsunami presented and several comparisons with real data (runup, wave height, etc.) shown.

  17. Use of UUVs to Evaluate and Improve Model Performance Within a Tidally-Dominated Bay

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-09-30

    Sequim Bay Road Sequim , WA 98382 Phone: (360) 681-3616 Fax: (360) 681-3699 Email: lyle.hibler@pnl.gov Grant Number: N00014-07-1-1113 LONG-TERM...releasing rhodamine dye on the surface of Sequim Bay ( Sequim , Washington) from an anchored vessel in 2006. Concurrently collected data from the...advective transport from a point release in Sequim Bay , Washington. Tidal, wind-driven and density-driven circulation were accounted for in the model. The

  18. A computer model of long-term salinity in San Francisco Bay: Sensitivity to mixing and inflows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uncles, R.J.; Peterson, D.H.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level model of the residual circulation and tidally-averaged salinity in San Francisco Bay has been developed in order to interpret long-term (days to decades) salinity variability in the Bay. Applications of the model to biogeochemical studies are also envisaged. The model has been used to simulate daily-averaged salinity in the upper and lower levels of a 51-segment discretization of the Bay over the 22-y period 1967–1988. Observed, monthly-averaged surface salinity data and monthly averages of the daily-simulated salinity are in reasonable agreement, both near the Golden Gate and in the upper reaches, close to the delta. Agreement is less satisfactory in the central reaches of North Bay, in the vicinity of Carquinez Strait. Comparison of daily-averaged data at Station 5 (Pittsburg, in the upper North Bay) with modeled data indicates close agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.97 for the 4110 daily values. The model successfully simulates the marked seasonal variability in salinity as well as the effects of rapidly changing freshwater inflows. Salinity variability is driven primarily by freshwater inflow. The sensitivity of the modeled salinity to variations in the longitudinal mixing coefficients is investigated. The modeled salinity is relatively insensitive to the calibration factor for vertical mixing and relatively sensitive to the calibration factor for longitudinal mixing. The optimum value of the longitudinal calibration factor is 1.1, compared with the physically-based value of 1.0. Linear time-series analysis indicates that the observed and dynamically-modeled salinity-inflow responses are in good agreement in the lower reaches of the Bay.

  19. Do the Naive Know Best? The Predictive Power of Naive Ratings of Couple Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baucom, Katherine J. W.; Baucom, Brian R.; Christensen, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    We examined the utility of naive ratings of communication patterns and relationship quality in a large sample of distressed couples. Untrained raters assessed 10-min videotaped interactions from 134 distressed couples who participated in both problem-solving and social support discussions at each of 3 time points (pre-therapy, post-therapy, and…

  20. The impact of modeling the dependencies among patient findings on classification accuracy and calibration.

    PubMed Central

    Monti, S.; Cooper, G. F.

    1998-01-01

    We present a new Bayesian classifier for computer-aided diagnosis. The new classifier builds upon the naive-Bayes classifier, and models the dependencies among patient findings in an attempt to improve its performance, both in terms of classification accuracy and in terms of calibration of the estimated probabilities. This work finds motivation in the argument that highly calibrated probabilities are necessary for the clinician to be able to rely on the model's recommendations. Experimental results are presented, supporting the conclusion that modeling the dependencies among findings improves calibration. PMID:9929288

  1. Blocking the recruitment of naive CD4+ T cells reverses immunosuppression in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Su, Shicheng; Liao, Jianyou; Liu, Jiang; Huang, Di; He, Chonghua; Chen, Fei; Yang, LinBing; Wu, Wei; Chen, Jianing; Lin, Ling; Zeng, Yunjie; Ouyang, Nengtai; Cui, Xiuying; Yao, Herui; Su, Fengxi; Huang, Jian-dong; Lieberman, Judy; Liu, Qiang; Song, Erwei

    2017-01-01

    The origin of tumor-infiltrating Tregs, critical mediators of tumor immunosuppression, is unclear. Here, we show that tumor-infiltrating naive CD4+ T cells and Tregs in human breast cancer have overlapping TCR repertoires, while hardly overlap with circulating Tregs, suggesting that intratumoral Tregs mainly develop from naive T cells in situ rather than from recruited Tregs. Furthermore, the abundance of naive CD4+ T cells and Tregs is closely correlated, both indicating poor prognosis for breast cancer patients. Naive CD4+ T cells adhere to tumor slices in proportion to the abundance of CCL18-producing macrophages. Moreover, adoptively transferred human naive CD4+ T cells infiltrate human breast cancer orthotopic xenografts in a CCL18-dependent manner. In human breast cancer xenografts in humanized mice, blocking the recruitment of naive CD4+ T cells into tumor by knocking down the expression of PITPNM3, a CCL18 receptor, significantly reduces intratumoral Tregs and inhibits tumor progression. These findings suggest that breast tumor-infiltrating Tregs arise from chemotaxis of circulating naive CD4+ T cells that differentiate into Tregs in situ. Inhibiting naive CD4+ T cell recruitment into tumors by interfering with PITPNM3 recognition of CCL18 may be an attractive strategy for anticancer immunotherapy. PMID:28290464

  2. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    PubMed

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Joint genome-wide prediction in several populations accounting for randomness of genotypes: A hierarchical Bayes approach. II: Multivariate spike and slab priors for marker effects and derivation of approximate Bayes and fractional Bayes factors for the complete family of models.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Carlos Alberto; Khare, Kshitij; Banerjee, Arunava; Elzo, Mauricio A

    2017-03-21

    This study corresponds to the second part of a companion paper devoted to the development of Bayesian multiple regression models accounting for randomness of genotypes in across population genome-wide prediction. This family of models considers heterogeneous and correlated marker effects and allelic frequencies across populations, and has the ability of considering records from non-genotyped individuals and individuals with missing genotypes in any subset of loci without the need for previous imputation, taking into account uncertainty about imputed genotypes. This paper extends this family of models by considering multivariate spike and slab conditional priors for marker allele substitution effects and contains derivations of approximate Bayes factors and fractional Bayes factors to compare models from part I and those developed here with their null versions. These null versions correspond to simpler models ignoring heterogeneity of populations, but still accounting for randomness of genotypes. For each marker loci, the spike component of priors corresponded to point mass at 0 in R S , where S is the number of populations, and the slab component was a S-variate Gaussian distribution, independent conditional priors were assumed. For the Gaussian components, covariance matrices were assumed to be either the same for all markers or different for each marker. For null models, the priors were simply univariate versions of these finite mixture distributions. Approximate algebraic expressions for Bayes factors and fractional Bayes factors were found using the Laplace approximation. Using the simulated datasets described in part I, these models were implemented and compared with models derived in part I using measures of predictive performance based on squared Pearson correlations, Deviance Information Criterion, Bayes factors, and fractional Bayes factors. The extensions presented here enlarge our family of genome-wide prediction models making it more flexible in the

  4. Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Urquhart, Erin A.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Guikema, Seth D.; Del Castillo, Carlos E.

    2014-01-01

    The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

  5. Gradient Analysis and Classification of Carolina Bay Vegetation: A Framework for Bay Wetlands Conservation and Restoration

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Diane De Steven,Ph.D.; Maureen Tone,PhD.

    1997-10-01

    This report address four project objectives: (1) Gradient model of Carolina bay vegetation on the SRS--The authors use ordination analyses to identify environmental and landscape factors that are correlated with vegetation composition. Significant factors can provide a framework for site-based conservation of existing diversity, and they may also be useful site predictors for potential vegetation in bay restorations. (2) Regional analysis of Carolina bay vegetation diversity--They expand the ordination analyses to assess the degree to which SRS bays encompass the range of vegetation diversity found in the regional landscape of South Carolina's western Upper Coastal Plain. Such comparisons can indicatemore » floristic status relative to regional potentials and identify missing species or community elements that might be re-introduced or restored. (3) Classification of vegetation communities in Upper Coastal Plain bays--They use cluster analysis to identify plant community-types at the regional scale, and explore how this classification may be functional with respect to significant environmental and landscape factors. An environmentally-based classification at the whole-bay level can provide a system of templates for managing bays as individual units and for restoring bays to desired plant communities. (4) Qualitative model for bay vegetation dynamics--They analyze present-day vegetation in relation to historic land uses and disturbances. The distinctive history of SRS bays provides the possibility of assessing pathways of post-disturbance succession. They attempt to develop a coarse-scale model of vegetation shifts in response to changing site factors; such qualitative models can provide a basis for suggesting management interventions that may be needed to maintain desired vegetation in protected or restored bays.« less

  6. Two separate defects affecting true naive or virtual memory T cell precursors combine to reduce naive T cell responses with aging.

    PubMed

    Renkema, Kristin R; Li, Gang; Wu, Angela; Smithey, Megan J; Nikolich-Žugich, Janko

    2014-01-01

    Naive T cell responses are eroded with aging. We and others have recently shown that unimmunized old mice lose ≥ 70% of Ag-specific CD8 T cell precursors and that many of the remaining precursors acquire a virtual (central) memory (VM; CD44(hi)CD62L(hi)) phenotype. In this study, we demonstrate that unimmunized TCR transgenic (TCRTg) mice also undergo massive VM conversion with age, exhibiting rapid effector function upon both TCR and cytokine triggering. Age-related VM conversion in TCRTg mice directly depended on replacement of the original TCRTg specificity by endogenous TCRα rearrangements, indicating that TCR signals must be critical in VM conversion. Importantly, we found that VM conversion had adverse functional effects in both old wild-type and old TCRTg mice; that is, old VM, but not old true naive, T cells exhibited blunted TCR-mediated, but not IL-15-mediated, proliferation. This selective proliferative senescence correlated with increased apoptosis in old VM cells in response to peptide, but decreased apoptosis in response to homeostatic cytokines IL-7 and IL-15. Our results identify TCR as the key factor in differential maintenance and function of Ag-specific precursors in unimmunized mice with aging, and they demonstrate that two separate age-related defects--drastic reduction in true naive T cell precursors and impaired proliferative capacity of their VM cousins--combine to reduce naive T cell responses with aging.

  7. A Multilayer Naïve Bayes Model for Analyzing User's Retweeting Sentiment Tendency.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mengmeng; Zuo, Wanli; Wang, Ying

    2015-01-01

    Today microblogging has increasingly become a means of information diffusion via user's retweeting behavior. Since retweeting content, as context information of microblogging, is an understanding of microblogging, hence, user's retweeting sentiment tendency analysis has gradually become a hot research topic. Targeted at online microblogging, a dynamic social network, we investigate how to exploit dynamic retweeting sentiment features in retweeting sentiment tendency analysis. On the basis of time series of user's network structure information and published text information, we first model dynamic retweeting sentiment features. Then we build Naïve Bayes models from profile-, relationship-, and emotion-based dimensions, respectively. Finally, we build a multilayer Naïve Bayes model based on multidimensional Naïve Bayes models to analyze user's retweeting sentiment tendency towards a microblog. Experiments on real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Further experiments are conducted to understand the importance of dynamic retweeting sentiment features and temporal information in retweeting sentiment tendency analysis. What is more, we provide a new train of thought for retweeting sentiment tendency analysis in dynamic social networks.

  8. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat modelsmore » of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.« less

  9. Holistic assessment of Chwaka Bay's multi-gear fishery - Using a trophic modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehren, Jennifer; Wolff, Matthias; Jiddawi, Narriman

    2018-04-01

    East African coastal communities highly depend on marine resources for not just income but also protein supply. The multi-species, multi-gear nature of East African fisheries makes this type of fishery particularly difficult to manage, as there is a trade-off between maximizing total catch from all gears and species and minimizing overfishing of target species and the disintegration of the ecosystem. The use and spatio-temporal overlap of multiple gears in Chwaka Bay (Zanzibar) has led to severe conflicts between fishermen. There is a general concern of overfishing in the bay because of the widespread use of small mesh sizes and destructive gears such as dragnets and spear guns. We constructed an Ecopath food web model to describe the current trophic flow structure and fishing pattern of the bay. Based on this model, we explored the impact of different gears on the ecosystem and the fishing community in order to give advice for gear based management in the bay. Results indicate that Chwaka bay is a productive, shallow water system, with biomass concentrations around the first and second trophic level. The system is greatly bottom-up driven and dominated by primary producers and invertebrates. The trophic and network indicators as well as the community energetics characterize Chwaka Bay as relatively mature. Traps and dragnets have the strongest impact on the ecosystem and on the catches obtained by other gears. Both gears potentially destabilize the ecosystem by reducing the biomass of top-down controlling key species (including important herbivores of macroalgae). The dragnet fishery is the least profitable, but provides most jobs for the fishing community. Thus, a complete ban of dragnets in the bay would require the provision of alternative livelihoods. Due to the low resource biomass of fish in the bay and the indication of a loss of structural control of certain fish groups, Chwaka Bay does not seem to provide scope for further expansion of the fishery

  10. Chesapeake Bay study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Love, W. J.

    1972-01-01

    The objectives and scope of the Chesapeake Bay study are discussed. The physical, chemical, biological, political, and social phenomena of concern to the Chesapeake Bay area are included in the study. The construction of a model of the bay which will provide a means of accurately studying the interaction of the ecological factors is described. The application of the study by management organizations for development, enhancement, conservation, preservation, and restoration of the resources is examined.

  11. Naive Theories of Social Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Marjorie

    2012-01-01

    Four studies examined children's (ages 3-10, Total N = 235) naive theories of social groups, in particular, their expectations about how group memberships constrain social interactions. After introduction to novel groups of people, preschoolers (ages 3-5) reliably expected agents from one group to harm members of the other group (rather than…

  12. THz identification and Bayes modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolnikov, Andre

    2017-05-01

    THz Identification is a developing technology. Sensing in the THz range potentially gives opportunity for short range radar sensing because THz waves can better penetrate through obscured atmosphere, such as fog, than visible light. The lower scattering of THz as opposed to the visible light results also in significantly better imaging than in IR spectrum. A much higher contrast can be achieved in medical trans-illumination applications than with X-rays or visible light. The same THz radiation qualities produce better tomographical images from hard surfaces, e.g. ceramics. This effect comes from the delay in time of reflected THz pulses detection. For special or commercial applications alike, the industrial quality control of defects is facilitated with a lower cost. The effectiveness of THz wave measurements is increased with computational methods. One of them is Bayes modeling. Examples of this kind of mathematical modeling are considered.

  13. Impairment of DNA Methylation Maintenance Is the Main Cause of Global Demethylation in Naive Embryonic Stem Cells.

    PubMed

    von Meyenn, Ferdinand; Iurlaro, Mario; Habibi, Ehsan; Liu, Ning Qing; Salehzadeh-Yazdi, Ali; Santos, Fátima; Petrini, Edoardo; Milagre, Inês; Yu, Miao; Xie, Zhenqing; Kroeze, Leonie I; Nesterova, Tatyana B; Jansen, Joop H; Xie, Hehuang; He, Chuan; Reik, Wolf; Stunnenberg, Hendrik G

    2016-06-16

    Global demethylation is part of a conserved program of epigenetic reprogramming to naive pluripotency. The transition from primed hypermethylated embryonic stem cells (ESCs) to naive hypomethylated ones (serum-to-2i) is a valuable model system for epigenetic reprogramming. We present a mathematical model, which accurately predicts global DNA demethylation kinetics. Experimentally, we show that the main drivers of global demethylation are neither active mechanisms (Aicda, Tdg, and Tet1-3) nor the reduction of de novo methylation. UHRF1 protein, the essential targeting factor for DNMT1, is reduced upon transition to 2i, and so is recruitment of the maintenance methylation machinery to replication foci. Concurrently, there is global loss of H3K9me2, which is needed for chromatin binding of UHRF1. These mechanisms synergistically enforce global DNA hypomethylation in a replication-coupled fashion. Our observations establish the molecular mechanism for global demethylation in naive ESCs, which has key parallels with those operating in primordial germ cells and early embryos. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Order-Constrained Bayes Inference for Dichotomous Models of Unidimensional Nonparametric IRT

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karabatsos, George; Sheu, Ching-Fan

    2004-01-01

    This study introduces an order-constrained Bayes inference framework useful for analyzing data containing dichotomous scored item responses, under the assumptions of either the monotone homogeneity model or the double monotonicity model of nonparametric item response theory (NIRT). The framework involves the implementation of Gibbs sampling to…

  15. Geomorphic Modeling of Macro-Tidal Embayment with Extensive Tidal Flats: Skagit Bay, Washington

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-30

    tidal flats: Skagit Bay , Washington Lyle Hibler Battelle-Pacific Northwest Division Marine Sciences Laboratory Sequim , WA 98382 phone: (360) 681...3616 fax: (360) 681-4559 email: lyle.hibler@pnnl.gov Adam Maxwell Battelle-Pacific Northwest Division Marine Sciences Laboratory Sequim , WA...Geomorphic modeling of macro-tidal embayment with extensive tidal flats: Skagit Bay , Washington 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT

  16. Observational and model studies of physical processes affecting benthic larval recruitment in Delaware Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobsen, Timothy R.; Milutinovic, James D.; Miller, James R.

    1990-11-01

    Physical processes are important in determining benthic recruitment success in estuarine ecosystems. We have conducted two field studies with passive surface drifters to examine the large-scale advection and local dispersion in the region of the oyster seed beds in Delaware Bay. The two studies show that the wind is critical in determining the final location of the drifters and that axial fronts in the bay may play an important role in reducing cross-bay particle dispersion and may keep particles in the nearshore oyster beds. Simulations of particle trajectories from a three-dimensional numerical model of Delaware Bay were also analyzed to determine the sensitivity of particle trajectories to varying wind conditions and different assumptions about larval vertical migration.

  17. Naive Theory of Biology: The Pre-School Child's Explanation of Death

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vlok, Milandre; de Witt, Marike W.

    2012-01-01

    This article explains the naive theory of biology that the pre-school child uses to explain the cause of death. The empirical investigation showed that the young participants do use a naive theory of biology to explain function and do make reference to "vitalistic causality" in explaining organ function. Furthermore, most of these…

  18. Water resources planning for rivers draining into Mobile Bay. Part 2: Non-conservative species transport models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    April, G. C.; Liu, H. A.

    1975-01-01

    Total coliform group bacteria were selected to expand the mathematical modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic and salinity models to understand their relationship to commercial fishing ventures within bay waters and to gain a clear insight into the effect that rivers draining into the bay have on water quality conditions. Parametric observations revealed that temperature factors and river flow rate have a pronounced effect on the concentration profiles, while wind conditions showed only slight effects. An examination of coliform group loading concentrations at constant river flow rates and temperature shows these loading changes have an appreciable influence on total coliform distribution within Mobile Bay.

  19. Dynamic Dimensionality Selection for Bayesian Classifier Ensembles

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-19

    learning of weights in an otherwise generatively learned naive Bayes classifier. WANBIA-C is very cometitive to Logistic Regression but much more...classifier, Generative learning, Discriminative learning, Naïve Bayes, Feature selection, Logistic regression , higher order attribute independence 16...discriminative learning of weights in an otherwise generatively learned naive Bayes classifier. WANBIA-C is very cometitive to Logistic Regression but

  20. Using a food-web model to assess the trophic structure and energy flows in Daya Bay, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zuozhi; Xu, Shannan; Qiu, Yongsong

    2015-12-01

    Daya Bay, is one of the largest and most important semi-closed bays along the southern coast of China. Due to the favorable geomorphological and climatic conditions, this bay has become an important conservation zone of aquatic germplasm resources in South China Sea. To characterize the trophic structure, ecosystem properties and keystone species, a food-web model for Daya Bay has been developed by the means of a mass-balance approach using the Ecopath with Ecosim software. The mean trophic transfer efficiency for the entire ecosystem as a whole is 10.9% while the trophic level II is 5.1%. The primary- and secondary-producers, including phytoplankton, zooplankton and micro-zoobenthos demonstrated the important overall impacts on the rest of the groups based on mixed trophic impact (MIT) analysis and are classified as the keystone groups. The analysis of ecosystem attributes indicated that ecosystem of Daya Bay can be categorized as an immature one and/or is in the degraded stage. A comparison of this model with other coastal ecosystems, including Kuosheng Bay, Tongoy Bay, Beibu Gulf and Cadiz Gulf, underpinned that the ecosystem of Daye Bay is an obviously stressed system and is more vulnerable to the external disturbance. In general, our study indicates that a holistic approach is needed to minimize the impacts of anthropogenic activities to ensure the sustainability of the ecosystem in the future.

  1. Estimation of environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay, Iran, via a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic model.

    PubMed

    Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

    2016-11-01

    Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea in Iran and is an important marine habitat for fish and seabirds. In the present study, the environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay was estimated using a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model and a linear programming model. The distribution of phosphorus, simulated by the numerical model, was used as an index for the occurrence of eutrophication and to determine the water quality response field of each of the pollution sources. The linear programming model was used to calculate and allocate the total maximum allowable loads of phosphorus to each of the pollution sources in a way that eutrophication be prevented and at the same time maximum environmental capacity be achieved. In addition, the effect of an artificial inlet on the environmental capacity of the bay was investigated. Observations of surface currents in Gorgan Bay were made by GPS-tracked surface drifters to provide data for calibration and verification of numerical modeling. Drifters were deployed at five different points across the bay over a period of 5 days. The results indicated that the annual environmental capacity of phosphorus is approximately 141 t if a concentration of 0.0477 mg/l for phosphorus is set as the water quality criterion. Creating an artificial inlet with a width of 1 km in the western part of the bay would result in a threefold increase in the environmental capacity of the study area.

  2. Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

    1981-01-01

    A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

  3. Modelling larval dispersal of the king scallop ( Pecten maximus) in the English Channel: examples from the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolle, Amandine; Dumas, Franck; Foveau, Aurélie; Foucher, Eric; Thiébaut, Eric

    2013-06-01

    The king scallop ( Pecten maximus) is one of the most important benthic species of the English Channel as it constitutes the first fishery in terms of landings in this area. To support strategies of spatial fishery management, we develop a high-resolution biophysical model to study scallop dispersal in two bays along the French coasts of the English Channel (i.e. the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine) and to quantify the relative roles of local hydrodynamic processes, temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration (PLD) and active swimming behaviour (SB). The two bays are chosen for three reasons: (1) the distribution of the scallop stocks in these areas is well known from annual scallop stock surveys, (2) these two bays harbour important fisheries and (3) scallops in these two areas present some differences in terms of reproductive cycle and spawning duration. The English Channel currents and temperature are simulated for 10 years (2000-2010) with the MARS-3D code and then used by the Lagrangian module of MARS-3D to model the transport. Results were analysed in terms of larval distribution at settlement and connectivity rates. While larval transport in the two bays depended both on the tidal residual circulation and the wind-induced currents, the relative role of these two hydrodynamic processes varied among bays. In the bay of Saint-Brieuc, the main patterns of larval dispersal were due to tides, the wind being only a source of variability in the extent of larval patch and the local retention rate. Conversely, in the bay of Seine, wind-induced currents altered both the direction and the extent of larval transport. The main effect of a variable PLD in relation to the thermal history of each larva was to reduce the spread of dispersal and consequently increase the local retention by about 10 % on average. Although swimming behaviour could influence larval dispersal during the first days of the PLD when larvae are mainly located in surface waters, it has a

  4. Linking Structural Equation Modelling with Bayesian Network and Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in Bohai Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Jiangtao; Yang, Yue

    2018-06-01

    Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modelling and have become an increasingly popular modelling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modelling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models and increases the BN model's accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, despite the Redfield ratio indicating that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results indicate that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay.

  5. Nowcast model for hazardous material spill prevention and response, San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cheng, Ralph T.; Wilmot, Wayne L.; Galt, Jerry A.

    1997-01-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) installed the Physical Oceanographic Real-time System (PORTS) in San Francisco Bay, California, to provide real-time observations of tides, tidal currents, and meteorological conditions to, among other purposes, guide hazardous material spill prevention and response. Integrated with nowcast modeling techniques and dissemination of real-time data and the nowcasting results through the Internet on the World Wide Web, emerging technologies used in PORTS for real-time data collection forms a nowcast modeling system. Users can download tides and tidal current distribution in San Francisco Bay for their specific applications and/or for further analysis.

  6. Half Moon Bay, Grays Harbor, Washington: Movable-Bed Physical Model Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-01

    wave machine used in Half Moon Bay physical model.................................50 Figure 28. Wave analysis output from model wave measurements...Point Chehalis used to reduce strong longshore current................82 Figure 46. Analysis of irregular waves measured at model wave Gauge 4...required several reconstruction efforts between origi- nal construction and present day due to the harsh wave climate on the Washington coast. After

  7. Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

    2017-12-01

    Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

  8. Risk forewarning model for rice grain Cd pollution based on Bayes theory.

    PubMed

    Wu, Bo; Guo, Shuhai; Zhang, Lingyan; Li, Fengmei

    2018-03-15

    Cadmium (Cd) pollution of rice grain caused by Cd-contaminated soils is a common problem in southwest and central south China. In this study, utilizing the advantages of the Bayes classification statistical method, we established a risk forewarning model for rice grain Cd pollution, and put forward two parameters (the prior probability factor and data variability factor). The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters illustrated that sample size and standard deviation influenced the accuracy and applicable range of the model. The accuracy of the model was improved by the self-renewal of the model through adding the posterior data into the priori data. Furthermore, this method can be used to predict the risk probability of rice grain Cd pollution under similar soil environment, tillage and rice varietal conditions. The Bayes approach thus represents a feasible method for risk forewarning of heavy metals pollution of agricultural products caused by contaminated soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land-estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets.

    PubMed

    Feng, Yang; Friedrichs, Marjorie A M; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E; Wiggert, Jerry D; Hood, Raleigh R

    2015-08-01

    The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 10 9  g N yr -1 ) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 10 9  g N yr -1 ) and buried (46 × 10 9  g N yr -1 ) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 10 9  g N yr -1 ) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50-60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

  10. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land‐estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

    PubMed Central

    Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Hood, Raleigh R.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land‐estuarine‐ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within‐estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite‐derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001–2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr−1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr−1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr−1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr−1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50–60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf. PMID:27668137

  11. Restoration Lessons Learned from Bay Scallop Habitat Models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat quality and quantity are important factors to consider when restoring bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) populations; however, data linking habitat attributes to bay scallop populations are lacking. This information is essential to guide restoration efforts to reverse sc...

  12. Calcium-mediated shaping of naive CD4 T-cell phenotype and function

    PubMed Central

    Guichard, Vincent; Bonilla, Nelly; Durand, Aurélie; Audemard-Verger, Alexandra; Guilbert, Thomas; Martin, Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Continuous contact with self-major histocompatibility complex ligands is essential for the survival of naive CD4 T cells. We have previously shown that the resulting tonic TCR signaling also influences their fate upon activation by increasing their ability to differentiate into induced/peripheral regulatory T cells. To decipher the molecular mechanisms governing this process, we here focus on the TCR signaling cascade and demonstrate that a rise in intracellular calcium levels is sufficient to modulate the phenotype of mouse naive CD4 T cells and to increase their sensitivity to regulatory T-cell polarization signals, both processes relying on calcineurin activation. Accordingly, in vivo calcineurin inhibition leads the most self-reactive naive CD4 T cells to adopt the phenotype of their less self-reactive cell-counterparts. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that calcium-mediated activation of the calcineurin pathway acts as a rheostat to shape both the phenotype and effector potential of naive CD4 T cells in the steady-state. PMID:29239722

  13. LORETA functional imaging in antipsychotic-naive and olanzapine-, clozapine- and risperidone-treated patients with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Tislerova, Barbora; Brunovsky, Martin; Horacek, Jiri; Novak, Tomas; Kopecek, Miloslav; Mohr, Pavel; Krajca, Vladimír

    2008-01-01

    The aim of our study was to detect changes in the distribution of electrical brain activity in schizophrenic patients who were antipsychotic naive and those who received treatment with clozapine, olanzapine or risperidone. We included 41 subjects with schizophrenia (antipsychotic naive = 11; clozapine = 8; olanzapine = 10; risperidone = 12) and 20 healthy controls. Low-resolution brain electromagnetic tomography was computed from 19-channel electroencephalography for the frequency bands delta, theta, alpha-1, alpha-2, beta-1, beta-2 and beta-3. We compared antipsychotic-naive subjects with healthy controls and medicated patients. (1) Comparing antipsychotic-naive subjects and controls we found a general increase in the slow delta and theta frequencies over the fronto-temporo-occipital cortex, particularly in the temporolimbic structures, an increase in alpha-1 and alpha-2 in the temporal cortex and an increase in beta-1 and beta-2 in the temporo-occipital and posterior limbic structures. (2) Comparing patients who received clozapine and those who were antipsychotic naive, we found an increase in delta and theta frequencies in the anterior cingulate and medial frontal cortex, and a decrease in alpha-1 and beta-2 in the occipital structures. (3) Comparing patients taking olanzapine with those who were antipsychotic naive, there was an increase in theta frequencies in the anterior cingulum, a decrease in alpha-1, beta-2 and beta-3 in the occipital cortex and posterior limbic structures, and a decrease in beta-3 in the frontotemporal cortex and anterior cingulum. (4) In patients taking risperidone, we found no significant changes from those who were antipsychotic naive. Our results in antipsychotic-naive patients are in agreement with existing functional findings. Changes in those taking clozapine and olanzapine versus those who were antipsychotic naive suggest a compensatory mechanism in the neurobiological substrate for schizophrenia. The lack of difference in

  14. HABITAT ASSESSMENT MODELS FOR BAY SCALLOP, ARGOPECTEN IRRADIANS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Bay scallops (Argopecten irradians) inhabit shallow subtidal habitats along the Atlantic coast of the United States and require settlement substrates, such as submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), for their early juvenile stages. The short lifespan of bay scallops (1-2 yr) coupled...

  15. Predicting flight delay based on multiple linear regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Yi

    2017-08-01

    Delay of flight has been regarded as one of the toughest difficulties in aviation control. How to establish an effective model to handle the delay prediction problem is a significant work. To solve the problem that the flight delay is difficult to predict, this study proposes a method to model the arriving flights and a multiple linear regression algorithm to predict delay, comparing with Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach. Experiments based on a realistic dataset of domestic airports show that the accuracy of the proposed model approximates 80%, which is further improved than the Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach approaches. The result testing shows that this method is convenient for calculation, and also can predict the flight delays effectively. It can provide decision basis for airport authorities.

  16. Acute cognitive impact of antiseizure drugs in naive rodents and corneal-kindled mice.

    PubMed

    Barker-Haliski, Melissa L; Vanegas, Fabiola; Mau, Matthew J; Underwood, Tristan K; White, H Steve

    2016-09-01

    Some antiseizure drugs (ASDs) are associated with cognitive liability in patients with epilepsy, thus ASDs without this risk would be preferred. Little comparative pharmacology exists with ASDs in preclinical models of cognition. Few pharmacologic studies exist on the acute effects in rodents with chronic seizures. Predicting risk for cognitive impact with preclinical models may supply valuable ASD differentiation data. ASDs (phenytoin [PHT]; carbamazepine [CBZ]; valproic acid [VPA]; lamotrigine [LTG]; phenobarbital [PB]; tiagabine [TGB]; retigabine [RTG]; topiramate [TPM]; and levetiracetam [LEV]) were administered equivalent to maximal electroshock median effective dose ([ED50]; mice, rats), or median dose necessary to elicit minimal motor impairment (median toxic dose [TD50]; rats). Cognition models with naive adult rodents were novel object/place recognition (NOPR) task with CF-1 mice, and Morris water maze (MWM) with Sprague-Dawley rats. Selected ASDs were also administered to rats prior to testing in an open field. The effect of chronic seizures and ASD administration on cognitive performance in NOPR was also determined with corneal-kindled mice. Mice that did not achieve kindling criterion (partially kindled) were included to examine the effect of electrical stimulation on cognitive performance. Sham-kindled and age-matched mice were also tested. No ASD (ED50) affected latency to locate the MWM platform; TD50 of PB, RTG, TPM, and VPA reduced this latency. In naive mice, CBZ and VPA (ED50) reduced time with the novel object. Of interest, no ASD (ED50) affected performance of fully kindled mice in NOPR, whereas CBZ and LEV improved cognitive performance of partially kindled mice. Standardized approaches to the preclinical evaluation of an ASD's potential cognitive impact are needed to inform drug development. This study demonstrated acute, dose- and model-dependent effects of therapeutically relevant doses of ASDs on cognitive performance of naive mice and

  17. Finite-difference model for 3-D flow in bays and estuaries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Peter E.; Larock, Bruce E.; ,

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes a semi-implicit finite-difference model for the numerical solution of three-dimensional flow in bays and estuaries. The model treats the gravity wave and vertical diffusion terms in the governing equations implicitly, and other terms explicitly. The model achieves essentially second-order accurate and stable solutions in strongly nonlinear problems by using a three-time-level leapfrog-trapezoidal scheme for the time integration.

  18. Mean sea-level rise impacts on Santos Bay, Southeastern Brazil--physical modelling study.

    PubMed

    Alfredini, Paolo; Arasaki, Emilia; do Amaral, Rogério Fernando

    2008-09-01

    The greenhouse effect and resulting increase in the Earth's temperature may accelerate the mean sea-level rise. The natural response of bays and estuaries to this rise, such as this case study of Santos Bay (Brazil), will include change in shoreline position, land flooding and wetlands impacts. The main impacts of this scenario were studied in a physical model built in the Coastal and Harbour Division of Hydraulic Laboratory, University of São Paulo, and the main conclusions are presented in this paper. The model reproduces near 1,000 km(2) of the study area, including Santos, São Vicente, Praia Grande, Cubatão, Guarujá and Bertioga cities.

  19. The Persistence of "Solid" and "Liquid" Naive Conceptions: A Reaction Time Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Babai, Reuven; Amsterdamer, Anat

    2008-01-01

    The study explores whether the naive concepts of "solid" and "liquid" persist in adolescence. Accuracy of responses and reaction times where measured while 41 ninth graders classified different solids (rigid, non-rigid and powders) and different liquids (runny, dense) into solid or liquid. The results show that these naive conceptions affect…

  20. A Trajectory Forecast Model as an Event Response Tool: Tracking an Anhydrous Ammonia Spill in Tampa Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Havens, H.; Luther, M. E.; Meyers, S. D.

    2008-12-01

    Response time is critical following a hazardous spill in a marine environment and rapid assessment of circulation patterns can mitigate the damage. Tampa Bay Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (TB- PORTS) data are used to drive a numerical circulation model of the bay for the purpose of hazardous material spill response, monitoring of human health risks, and environmental protection and management. The model is capable of rapidly producing forecast simulations that, in the event of a human health or ecosystem threat, can alert authorities to areas in Tampa Bay with a high probability of being affected by the material. Responders to an anhydrous ammonia spill in November 2007 in Tampa Bay utilized the numerical model of circulation in the estuary to predict where the spill was likely to be transported. The model quickly generated a week-long simulation predicting how winds and currents might move the spill around the bay. The physical mechanisms transporting ammonium alternated from being tidally driven for the initial two days following the spill to a more classical two-layered circulation for the remainder of the simulation. Velocity profiles of Tampa Bay reveal a strong outward flowing current present at the time of the simulation which acted as a significant transport mechanism for ammonium within the bay. Probability distributions, calculated from the predicted model trajectories, guided sampling in the days after the spill resulting in the detection of a toxic Pseudo-nitzschia bloom that likely was initiated as a result of the anhydrous ammonia spill. The prediction system at present is only accessible to scientists in the Ocean Monitoring and Prediction Lab (OMPL) at the University of South Florida. The forecast simulations are compiled into an animation that is provided to end users at their request. In the future, decision makers will be allowed access to an online component of the coastal prediction system that can be used to manage response and

  1. MASS BALANCE MODELLING OF PCBS IN THE FOX RIVER/GREEN BAY COMPLEX

    EPA Science Inventory

    The USEPA Office of Research and Development developed and applies a multimedia, mass balance modeling approach to the Fox River/Green Bay complex to aid managers with remedial decision-making. The suite of models were applied to PCBs due to the long history of contamination and ...

  2. Modeling and predicting intertidal variations of the salinity field in the Bay/Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knowles, Noah; Uncles, Reginald J.

    1995-01-01

    One approach to simulating daily to monthly variability in the bay is the development of intertidal model using tidally-averaged equations and a time step on the order of the day.  An intertidal numerical model of the bay's physics, capable of portraying seasonal and inter-annual variability, would have several uses.  Observations are limited in time and space, so simulation could help fill the gaps.  Also, the ability to simulate multi-year episodes (eg, an extended drought) could provide insight into the response of the ecosystem to such events.  Finally, such a model could be used in a forecast mode wherein predicted delta flow is used as model input, and predicted salinity distribution is output with estimates days and months in advance.  This note briefly introduces such a tidally-averaged model (Uncles and Peterson, in press) and a corresponding predictive scheme for baywide forecasting.

  3. MODELING FISH AND SHELLFISH DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE MOBILE BAY ESTUARY, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico provide rich habitat for many fish and shellfish, including those that have been identified as economically and ecologically important. For the Mobile Bay estuary, we developed statistical models to relate distributions of individual species and sp...

  4. Crustal structure of Baffin Bay from constrained 3-D gravity inversion and deformable plate tectonic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welford, J. Kim; Peace, Alexander L.; Geng, Meixia; Dehler, Sonya A.; Dickie, Kate

    2018-05-01

    Mesozoic to Cenozoic continental rifting, breakup, and spreading between North America and Greenland led to the opening, from south to north, of the Labrador Sea and eventually Baffin Bay between Baffin Island, northeast Canada, and northwest Greenland. Baffin Bay lies at the northern limit of this extinct rift, transform, and spreading system and remains largely underexplored. With the sparsity of existing crustal-scale geophysical investigations of Baffin Bay, regional potential field methods and quantitative deformation assessments based on plate reconstructions provide two means of examining Baffin Bay at the regional scale and drawing conclusions about its crustal structure, its rifting history, and the role of pre-existing structures in its evolution. Despite the identification of extinct spreading axes and fracture zones based on gravity data, insights into the nature and structure of the underlying crust have only been gleaned from limited deep seismic experiments, mostly concentrated in the north and east where the continental shelf is shallower and wider. Baffin Bay is partially underlain by oceanic crust with zones of variable width of extended continental crust along its margins. 3-D gravity inversions, constrained by bathymetric and depth to basement constraints, have generated a range of 3-D crustal density models that collectively reveal an asymmetric distribution of extended continental crust, approximately 25-30 km thick, along the margins of Baffin Bay, with a wider zone on the Greenland margin. A zone of 5 to 13 km thick crust lies at the centre of Baffin Bay, with the thinnest crust (5 km thick) clearly aligning with Eocene spreading centres. The resolved crustal thicknesses are generally in agreement with available seismic constraints, with discrepancies mostly corresponding to zones of higher density lower crust along the Greenland margin and Nares Strait. Deformation modelling from independent plate reconstructions using GPlates of the rifted

  5. What Fits into a Mirror: Naive Beliefs about the Field of View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bianchi, Ivana; Savardi, Ugo

    2012-01-01

    Research on naive physics and naive optics have shown that people hold surprising beliefs about everyday phenomena that are in contrast with what they see. In this article, we investigated what adults expect to be the field of view of a mirror from various viewpoints. The studies presented here confirm that humans have difficulty dealing with the…

  6. Impaired processing speed and attention in first-episode drug naive schizophrenia with deficit syndrome.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ce; Jiang, Wenhui; Zhong, Na; Wu, Jin; Jiang, Haifeng; Du, Jiang; Li, Ye; Ma, Xiancang; Zhao, Min; Hashimoto, Kenji; Gao, Chengge

    2014-11-01

    Although first-episode drug naive patients with schizophrenia are known to show cognitive impairment, the cognitive performances of these patients, who suffer deficit syndrome, compared with those who suffer non-deficit syndrome is undetermined. The aim of this study was to compare cognitive performances in first-episode drug-naive schizophrenia with deficit syndrome or non-deficit syndrome. First-episode drug naive patients (n=49) and medicated patients (n=108) with schizophrenia, and age, sex, and education matched healthy controls (n=57 for the first-episode group, and n=128 for the medicated group) were enrolled. Patients were divided into deficit or non-deficit syndrome groups, using the Schedule for Deficit Syndrome. Cognitive performance was assessed using the CogState computerized cognitive battery. All cognitive domains in first-episode drug naive and medicated patients showed significant impairment compared with their respective control groups. Furthermore, cognitive performance in first-episode drug naive patients was significantly worse than in medicated patients. Interestingly, the cognitive performance markers of processing speed and attention, in first-episode drug naive patients with deficit syndrome, were both significantly worse than in equivalent patients without deficit syndrome. In contrast, no differences in cognitive performance were found between the two groups of medicated patients. In conclusion, this study found that first-episode drug naive schizophrenia with deficit syndrome showed significantly impaired processing speed and attention, compared with patients with non-deficit syndrome. These findings highlight processing speed and attention as potential targets for pharmacological and psychosocial interventions in first-episode schizophrenia with deficit syndrome, since these domains are associated with social outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Changes in Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia over the Past Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrichs, M. A.; Kaufman, D. E.; Najjar, R.; Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Yao, Y.

    2016-02-01

    The Chesapeake Bay, one of the world's largest estuaries, is among the many coastal systems where hypoxia is a major concern and where dissolved oxygen thus represents a critical factor in determining the health of the Bay's ecosystem. Over the past century, the population of the Chesapeake Bay region has almost quadrupled, greatly modifying land cover and management practices within the watershed. Simultaneously, the Chesapeake Bay has been experiencing a high degree of climate change, including increases in temperature, precipitation, and precipitation intensity. Together, these changes have resulted in significantly increased riverine nutrient inputs to the Bay. In order to examine how interdecadal changes in riverine nitrogen input affects biogeochemical cycling and dissolved oxygen concentrations in Chesapeake Bay, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system has been developed for this region. Riverine inputs of nitrogen to the Bay are computed from a terrestrial ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model; DLEM) that resolves riverine discharge variability on scales of days to years. This temporally varying discharge is then used as input to the estuarine-carbon-biogeochemical model embedded in the Regional Modeling System (ROMS), which provides estimates of the oxygen concentrations and nitrogen fluxes within the Bay as well as advective exports from the Bay to the adjacent Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf. Simulation results from this linked modeling system for the present (early 2000s) have been extensively evaluated with in situ and remotely sensed data. Longer-term simulations are used to isolate the effect of increased riverine nitrogen loading on dissolved oxygen concentrations and biogeochemical cycling within the Chesapeake Bay.

  8. Novel naïve Bayes classification models for predicting the chemical Ames mutagenicity.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Kang, Yan-Li; Zhu, Yuan-Yuan; Zhao, Kai-Xia; Liang, Jun-Yu; Ding, Lan; Zhang, Teng-Guo; Zhang, Ji

    2017-06-01

    Prediction of drug candidates for mutagenicity is a regulatory requirement since mutagenic compounds could pose a toxic risk to humans. The aim of this investigation was to develop a novel prediction model of mutagenicity by using a naïve Bayes classifier. The established model was validated by the internal 5-fold cross validation and external test sets. For comparison, the recursive partitioning classifier prediction model was also established and other various reported prediction models of mutagenicity were collected. Among these methods, the prediction performance of naïve Bayes classifier established here displayed very well and stable, which yielded average overall prediction accuracies for the internal 5-fold cross validation of the training set and external test set I set were 89.1±0.4% and 77.3±1.5%, respectively. The concordance of the external test set II with 446 marketed drugs was 90.9±0.3%. In addition, four simple molecular descriptors (e.g., Apol, No. of H donors, Num-Rings and Wiener) related to mutagenicity and five representative substructures of mutagens (e.g., aromatic nitro, hydroxyl amine, nitroso, aromatic amine and N-methyl-N-methylenemethanaminum) produced by ECFP_14 fingerprints were identified. We hope the established naïve Bayes prediction model can be applied to risk assessment processes; and the obtained important information of mutagenic chemicals can guide the design of chemical libraries for hit and lead optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Novel naïve Bayes classification models for predicting the carcinogenicity of chemicals.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Cao, Zhi-Xing; Li, Meng; Li, Yu-Zhi; Peng, Cheng

    2016-11-01

    The carcinogenicity prediction has become a significant issue for the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a novel prediction model of carcinogenicity of chemicals by using a naïve Bayes classifier. The established model was validated by the internal 5-fold cross validation and external test set. The naïve Bayes classifier gave an average overall prediction accuracy of 90 ± 0.8% for the training set and 68 ± 1.9% for the external test set. Moreover, five simple molecular descriptors (e.g., AlogP, Molecular weight (M W ), No. of H donors, Apol and Wiener) considered as important for the carcinogenicity of chemicals were identified, and some substructures related to the carcinogenicity were achieved. Thus, we hope the established naïve Bayes prediction model could be applied to filter early-stage molecules for this potential carcinogenicity adverse effect; and the identified five simple molecular descriptors and substructures of carcinogens would give a better understanding of the carcinogenicity of chemicals, and further provide guidance for medicinal chemists in the design of new candidate drugs and lead optimization, ultimately reducing the attrition rate in later stages of drug development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A new seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fregoso, Theresa A.; Wang, Rueen-Fang; Ateljevich, Eli; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2017-06-14

    Climate change, sea-level rise, and human development have contributed to the changing geomorphology of the San Francisco Bay - Delta (Bay-Delta) Estuary system. The need to predict scenarios of change led to the development of a new seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the Bay – Delta that can be used by modelers attempting to understand potential future changes to the estuary system. This report details the three phases of the creation of this DEM. The first phase took a bathymetric-only DEM created in 2005 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), refined it with additional data, and identified areas that would benefit from new surveys. The second phase began a USGS collaboration with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) that updated a 2012 DWR seamless bathymetric/topographic DEM of the Bay-Delta with input from the USGS and modifications to fit the specific needs of USGS modelers. The third phase took the work from phase 2 and expanded the coverage area in the north to include the Yolo Bypass up to the Fremont Weir, the Sacramento River up to Knights Landing, and the American River up to the Nimbus Dam, and added back in the elevations for interior islands. The constant evolution of the Bay-Delta will require continuous updates to the DEM of the Delta, and there still are areas with older data that would benefit from modern surveys. As a result, DWR plans to continue updating the DEM.

  11. Characterizing observed circulation patterns within a bay using HF radar and numerical model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Donncha, Fearghal; Hartnett, Michael; Nash, Stephen; Ren, Lei; Ragnoli, Emanuele

    2015-02-01

    In this study, High Frequency Radar (HFR), observations in conjunction with numerical model simulations investigate surface flow dynamics in a tidally-active, wind-driven bay; Galway Bay situated on the West coast of Ireland. Comparisons against ADCP sensor data permit an independent assessment of HFR and model performance, respectively. Results show root-mean-square (rms) differences in the range 10 - 12cm/s while model rms equalled 12 - 14cm/s. Subsequent analysis focus on a detailed comparison of HFR and model output. Harmonic analysis decompose both sets of surface currents based on distinct flow process, enabling a correlation analysis between the resultant output and dominant forcing parameters. Comparisons of barotropic model simulations and HFR tidal signal demonstrate consistently high agreement, particularly of the dominant M2 tidal signal. Analysis of residual flows demonstrate considerably poorer agreement, with the model failing to replicate complex flows. A number of hypotheses explaining this discrepancy are discussed, namely: discrepancies between regional-scale, coastal-ocean models and globally-influenced bay-scale dynamics; model uncertainties arising from highly-variable wind-driven flows across alarge body of water forced by point measurements of wind vectors; and the high dependence of model simulations on empirical wind-stress coefficients. The research demonstrates that an advanced, widely-used hydro-environmental model does not accurately reproduce aspects of surface flow processes, particularly with regards wind forcing. Considering the significance of surface boundary conditions in both coastal and open ocean dynamics, the viability of using a systematic analysis of results to improve model predictions is discussed.

  12. 'Educated' dendritic cells act as messengers from memory to naive T helper cells.

    PubMed

    Alpan, Oral; Bachelder, Eric; Isil, Eda; Arnheiter, Heinz; Matzinger, Polly

    2004-06-01

    Ingested antigens lead to the generation of effector T cells that secrete interleukin 4 (IL-4) rather than interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) and are capable of influencing naive T cells in their immediate environment to do the same. Using chimeric mice generated by aggregation of two genotypically different embryos, we found that the conversion of a naive T cell occurs only if it can interact with the same antigen-presenting cell, although not necessarily the same antigen, as the effector T cell. Using a two-step culture system in vitro, we found that antigen-presenting dendritic cells can act as 'temporal bridges' to relay information from orally immunized memory CD4 T cells to naive CD4 T cells. The orally immunized T cells use IL-4 and IL-10 (but not CD40 ligand) to 'educate' dendritic cells, which in turn induce naive T cells to produce the same cytokines as those produced by the orally immunized memory T cells.

  13. Identification of spatiotemporal nutrient patterns in a coastal bay via an integrated k-means clustering and gravity model.

    PubMed

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Wimberly, Brent; Xuan, Zhemin

    2012-03-01

    This study presents an integrated k-means clustering and gravity model (IKCGM) for investigating the spatiotemporal patterns of nutrient and associated dissolved oxygen levels in Tampa Bay, Florida. By using a k-means clustering analysis to first partition the nutrient data into a user-specified number of subsets, it is possible to discover the spatiotemporal patterns of nutrient distribution in the bay and capture the inherent linkages of hydrodynamic and biogeochemical features. Such patterns may then be combined with a gravity model to link the nutrient source contribution from each coastal watershed to the generated clusters in the bay to aid in the source proportion analysis for environmental management. The clustering analysis was carried out based on 1 year (2008) water quality data composed of 55 sample stations throughout Tampa Bay collected by the Environmental Protection Commission of Hillsborough County. In addition, hydrological and river water quality data of the same year were acquired from the United States Geological Survey's National Water Information System to support the gravity modeling analysis. The results show that the k-means model with 8 clusters is the optimal choice, in which cluster 2 at Lower Tampa Bay had the minimum values of total nitrogen (TN) concentrations, chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations, and ocean color values in every season as well as the minimum concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in three consecutive seasons in 2008. The datasets indicate that Lower Tampa Bay is an area with limited nutrient input throughout the year. Cluster 5, located in Middle Tampa Bay, displayed elevated TN concentrations, ocean color values, and Chl-a concentrations, suggesting that high values of colored dissolved organic matter are linked with some nutrient sources. The data presented by the gravity modeling analysis indicate that the Alafia River Basin is the major contributor of nutrients in terms of both TP and TN values in all seasons

  14. A 3D unstructured-grid model for Chesapeake Bay: Importance of bathymetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Fei; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Harry V.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Irby, Isaac D.; Alteljevich, Eli; Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo; Wang, Zhengui; Huang, Hai; Shen, Jian; Du, Jiabi

    2018-07-01

    We extend the 3D unstructured-grid model previously developed for the Upper Chesapeake Bay to cover the entire Bay and its adjacent shelf, and assess its skill in simulating saltwater intrusion and the coastal plume. Recently developed techniques, including a flexible vertical grid system and a 2nd-order, monotone and implicit transport solver are critical in successfully capturing the baroclinic responses. Most importantly, good accuracy is achieved through an accurate representation of the underlying bathymetry, without any smoothing. The model in general exhibits a good skill for all hydrodynamic variables: the averaged root-mean-square errors (RMSE's) in the Bay are 9 cm for sub-tidal frequency elevation, 17 cm/s for 3D velocity time series, 1.5 PSU and 1.9 PSU for surface and bottom salinity respectively, 1.1 °C and 1.6 °C for surface and bottom temperature respectively. On the shelf, the average RMSE for the surface temperature is 1.4 °C. We highlight, through results from sensitivity tests, the central role played by bathymetry in this estuarine system and the detrimental effects, from a common class of bathymetry smoothers, on volumetric and tracer fluxes as well as key processes such as the channel-shoal contrast in the estuary and plume propagation in the coast.

  15. Top predators affect the composition of naive protist communities, but only in their early-successional stage.

    PubMed

    Zander, Axel; Gravel, Dominique; Bersier, Louis-Félix; Gray, Sarah M

    2016-02-01

    Introduced top predators have the potential to disrupt community dynamics when prey species are naive to predation. The impact of introduced predators may also vary depending on the stage of community development. Early-succession communities are likely to have small-bodied and fast-growing species, but are not necessarily good at defending against predators. In contrast, late-succession communities are typically composed of larger-bodied species that are more predator resistant relative to small-bodied species. Yet, these aspects are greatly neglected in invasion studies. We therefore tested the effect of top predator presence on early- and late-succession communities that were either naive or non-naive to top predators. We used the aquatic community held within the leaves of Sarracenia purpurea. In North America, communities have experienced the S. purpurea top predator and are therefore non-naive. In Europe, this predator is not present and its niche has not been filled, making these communities top-predator naive. We collected early- and late-succession communities from two non-naive and two naive sites, which are climatically similar. We then conducted a common-garden experiment, with and without the presence of the top predator, in which we recorded changes in community composition, body size spectra, bacterial density, and respiration. We found that the top predator had no statistical effect on global measures of community structure and functioning. However, it significantly altered protist composition, but only in naive, early-succession communities, highlighting that the state of community development is important for understanding the impact of invasion.

  16. A Combined Modeling Approach to Evaluate Water Quality Benefits of Riparian Buffers in the Jobos Bay Watershed

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Jobos Bay Watershed, located in south-central Puerto Rico, is a tropical Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) Special Emphasis Watershed. The purpose of CEAP is to quantify environmental benefits of conservation practices and includes field and watershed modeling. In Jobos Bay, the goa...

  17. Children and Adolescents' Understandings of Family Resemblance: A Study of Naive Inheritance Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Joanne M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to provide developmental data on two connected naive inheritance concepts and to explore the coherence of children's naive biology knowledge. Two tasks examined children and adolescents' (4, 7, 10, and 14 years) conceptions of phenotypic resemblance across kin (in physical characteristics, disabilities, and personality traits). The…

  18. Simultaneous fitting of genomic-BLUP and Bayes-C components in a genomic prediction model.

    PubMed

    Iheshiulor, Oscar O M; Woolliams, John A; Svendsen, Morten; Solberg, Trygve; Meuwissen, Theo H E

    2017-08-24

    The rapid adoption of genomic selection is due to two key factors: availability of both high-throughput dense genotyping and statistical methods to estimate and predict breeding values. The development of such methods is still ongoing and, so far, there is no consensus on the best approach. Currently, the linear and non-linear methods for genomic prediction (GP) are treated as distinct approaches. The aim of this study was to evaluate the implementation of an iterative method (called GBC) that incorporates aspects of both linear [genomic-best linear unbiased prediction (G-BLUP)] and non-linear (Bayes-C) methods for GP. The iterative nature of GBC makes it less computationally demanding similar to other non-Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. However, as a Bayesian method, GBC differs from both MCMC- and non-MCMC-based methods by combining some aspects of G-BLUP and Bayes-C methods for GP. Its relative performance was compared to those of G-BLUP and Bayes-C. We used an imputed 50 K single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) dataset based on the Illumina Bovine50K BeadChip, which included 48,249 SNPs and 3244 records. Daughter yield deviations for somatic cell count, fat yield, milk yield, and protein yield were used as response variables. GBC was frequently (marginally) superior to G-BLUP and Bayes-C in terms of prediction accuracy and was significantly better than G-BLUP only for fat yield. On average across the four traits, GBC yielded a 0.009 and 0.006 increase in prediction accuracy over G-BLUP and Bayes-C, respectively. Computationally, GBC was very much faster than Bayes-C and similar to G-BLUP. Our results show that incorporating some aspects of G-BLUP and Bayes-C in a single model can improve accuracy of GP over the commonly used method: G-BLUP. Generally, GBC did not statistically perform better than G-BLUP and Bayes-C, probably due to the close relationships between reference and validation individuals. Nevertheless, it is a flexible tool, in the sense

  19. Phosphorus retention and internal loading in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, using diagenetic modelling.

    PubMed

    Doan, Phuong T K; Watson, Sue B; Markovic, Stefan; Liang, Anqi; Guo, Jay; Mugalingam, Shan; Stokes, Jonathan; Morley, Andrew; Zhang, Weitao; Arhonditsis, George B; Dittrich, Maria

    2018-04-24

    Internal phosphorus (P) loading significantly contributes to hysteresis in ecosystem response to nutrient remediation, but the dynamics of sediment P transformations are often poorly characterized. Here, we applied a reaction-transport diagenetic model to investigate sediment P dynamics in the Bay of Quinte, a polymictic, spatially complex embayment of Lake Ontario, (Canada). We quantified spatial and temporal variability of sediment P binding forms and estimated P diffusive fluxes and sediment P retention in different parts of the bay. Our model supports the notion that diagenetic recycling of redox sensitive and organic bound P forms drive sediment P release. In the recent years, summer sediment P diffusive fluxes varied in the range of 3.2-3.6 mg P m -2  d -1 in the upper bay compared to 1.5 mg P m -2  d -1 in the middle-lower bay. Meanwhile sediment P retention ranged between 71% and 75% in the upper and middle-lower bay, respectively. The reconstruction of temporal trends of internal P loading in the past century, suggests that against the backdrop of reduced external P inputs, sediment P exerts growing control over the lake nutrient budget. Higher sediment P diffusive fluxes since mid-20th century with particular increase in the past 20 years in the shallower upper basins, emphasize limited sediment P retention potential and suggest prolonged ecosystem recovery, highlighting the importance of ongoing P control measures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Bayes factors and multimodel inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for model averaging, and provides a context for evaluation of the commonly used AIC weights. We review Bayesian multimodel inference, noting the importance of Bayes factors. Noting the sensitivity of Bayes factors to the choice of priors on parameters, we define and propose nonpreferential priors as offering a reasonable standard for objective multimodel inference.

  1. Hydrodynamic modeling and feasibility study of harnessing tidal power at the Bay of Fundy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Jen

    Due to rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, energy generation from alternative power source has become one of the most important issues in energy policy. Tidal power is one of the alternative energy sources. The tidal range at the Bay of Fundy is the largest in the world (approximately 16 meters). It represents a prime location for harnessing tidal power using the daily rising and ebbing tide. In this study, a two dimensional finite element model has been developed and applied to simulate the tidal responses, including water level and flow velocity, in the Bay of Fundy region. The simulation results are used to choose the suitable location for energy development and to predict possible energy generated from different types of generation methods. Fluid motion is assumed to be governed by the shallow water equation since the wave length associated with tide is much longer than the water depth in the Bay of Fundy. By using a real time series of water elevation at the entrance of the bay, the computer model finds tidal response for each node in the study area, which is then verified by the observation record from several tidal gauge stations inside the bay. This study shows that the at-site cost of the energy for barrage type tidal power plants is around 0.065 to 0.097 per kWh at the recommended Shepody Bay, Cumberland Basin, and Cobequid Bay. The cost of energy for the current turbine type tidal power plants is 0.13/kWh to 0.24/kWh at the area with highest current velocity. Compared with the recent bill of the local power company, the at-site unit cost of energy from the barrage type of tidal power plant is feasible, but the environmental concerns of channel blocking by barrage present a formidable constraint. For the current turbine type of tidal power plant, even the most suitable sites are not financially feasible under current technology, but this type of power generation may become feasible as oil prices continue to increase and more efficient turbines

  2. Modelling near field regional uplift patterns in West Greenland/Disko Bay with plane-Earth finite element models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meldgaard, Asger; Nielsen, Lars; Iaffaldano, Giampiero

    2017-04-01

    Relative sea level data, primarily obtained through isolation basin analysis in western Greenland and on Disko Island, indicates asynchronous rates of uplift during the Early Holocene with larger rates of uplift in southern Disko Bay compared to the northern part of the bay. Similar short-wavelength variations can be inferred from the Holocene marine limit as observations on the north and south side of Disko Island differ by as much as 60 m. While global isostatic adjustment models are needed to account for far field contributions to the relative sea level and for the calculation of accurate ocean functions, they are generally not suited for a detailed analysis of the short-wavelength uplift patterns observed close to present ice margins. This is in part due to the excessive computational cost required for sufficient resolution, and because these models generally ignore regional lateral heterogeneities in mantle and lithosphere rheology. To mitigate this problem, we perform sensitivity tests to investigate the effects of near field loading on a regional plane-Earth finite element model of the lithosphere and mantle of the Disko Bay area, where the global isostatic uplift chronology is well documented. By loading the model area through detailed regional ocean function and ice models, and by including a high resolution topography model of the area, we seek to assess the isostatic rebound generated by surface processes with wavelengths similar to those of the observed rebound signal. We also investigate possible effects of varying lithosphere and mantle rheology, which may play an important role in explaining the rebound signal. We use the abundance of relative sea level curves obtained in the region primarily through isolation basin analysis on Disko Island to constrain the parameters of the Earth model.

  3. Modeling investigation of the nutrient and phytoplankton variability in the Chesapeake Bay outflow plume

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Long; Xia, Meng

    2018-03-01

    The Chesapeake Bay outflow plume (CBOP) is the mixing zone between Chesapeake Bay and less eutrophic continental shelf waters. Variations in phytoplankton distribution in the CBOP are critical to the fish nursery habitat quality and ecosystem health; thus, an existing hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model for the bay and the adjacent coastal ocean was applied to understand the nutrient and phytoplankton variability in the plume and the dominant environmental drivers. The simulated nutrient and chlorophyll a distribution agreed well with field data and real-time satellite imagery. Based on the model calculation, the net dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) flux at the bay mouth was seaward and landward during 2003-2012, respectively. The CBOP was mostly nitrogen-limited because of the relatively low estuarine DIN export. The highest simulated phytoplankton biomass generally occurred in spring in the near field of the plume. Streamflow variations could regulate the estuarine residence time, and thus modulate nutrient export and phytoplankton biomass in the plume area; in comparison, changing nutrient loading with fixed streamflow had a less extensive impact, especially in the offshore and far-field regions. Correlation analyses and numerical experiments revealed that southerly winds on the shelf were effective in promoting the offshore plume expansion and phytoplankton accumulation. Climate change including precipitation and wind pattern shifts is likely to complicate the driving mechanisms of phytoplankton variability in the plume region.

  4. IL-7-Induced Proliferation of Human Naive CD4 T-Cells Relies on Continued Thymic Activity.

    PubMed

    Silva, Susana L; Albuquerque, Adriana S; Matoso, Paula; Charmeteau-de-Muylder, Bénédicte; Cheynier, Rémi; Ligeiro, Dário; Abecasis, Miguel; Anjos, Rui; Barata, João T; Victorino, Rui M M; Sousa, Ana E

    2017-01-01

    Naive CD4 T-cell maintenance is critical for immune competence. We investigated here the fine-tuning of homeostatic mechanisms of the naive compartment to counteract the loss of de novo CD4 T-cell generation. Adults thymectomized in early childhood during corrective cardiac surgery were grouped based on presence or absence of thymopoiesis and compared with age-matched controls. We found that the preservation of the CD31 - subset was independent of the thymus and that its size is tightly controlled by peripheral mechanisms, including prolonged cell survival as attested by Bcl-2 levels. Conversely, a significant contraction of the CD31 + naive subset was observed in the absence of thymic activity. This was associated with impaired responses of purified naive CD4 T-cells to IL-7, namely, in vitro proliferation and upregulation of CD31 expression, which likely potentiated the decline in recent thymic emigrants. Additionally, we found no apparent constraint in the differentiation of naive cells into the memory compartment in individuals completely lacking thymic activity despite upregulation of DUSP6 , a phosphatase associated with increased TCR threshold. Of note, thymectomized individuals featuring some degree of thymopoiesis were able to preserve the size and diversity of the naive CD4 compartment, further arguing against complete thymectomy in infancy. Overall, our data suggest that robust peripheral mechanisms ensure the homeostasis of CD31 - naive CD4 pool and point to the requirement of continuous thymic activity to the maintenance of IL-7-driven homeostatic proliferation of CD31 + naive CD4 T-cells, which is essential to secure T-cell diversity throughout life.

  5. Circulation in a bay influenced by flooding of a river discharging outside the bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakehi, Shigeho; Takagi, Takamasa; Okabe, Katsuaki; Takayanagi, Kazufumi

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the influence of a river discharging outside a bay on circulation in the bay, we carried out current and salinity measurements from mooring systems and hydrographic observations in Matsushima Bay, Japan, and off the Naruse River, which discharges outside the bay. Previously, enhancement of horizontal circulation in the bay induced by increased freshwater input from the Naruse River was reported to have degraded the seedling yield of wild Pacific oysters in the bay, but the freshwater inflow from the river was not directly measured. Our hydrographic observations in Katsugigaura Strait, approximately 3 km southwest of the Naruse River mouth, detected freshwater derived from the river. The mooring data revealed that freshwater discharged by the river flowed into Matsushima Bay via the strait and that the freshwater transport increased when the river was in flood. The inflow through straits other than Katsugigaura was estimated by a box model analysis to be 26-145 m3 s-1 under normal river discharge conditions, and it decreased to 6 m3 s-1 during flood conditions. During flood events, the salt and water budgets in the bay were maintained by the horizontal circulation: inflow occurred mainly via Katsugigaura Strait, and outflow was mainly via other straits.

  6. Multispecies modeling for adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and red knots in the Delaware Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.; Smith, David; Sweka, John A.; Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; Wong, Richard; Lyons, James E.; Niles, Lawrence J.; Kalasz, Kevin; Brust, Jeffrey; Klopfer, Michelle; Spear, Braddock

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management requires that predictive models be explicit and transparent to improve decisions by comparing management actions, directing further research and monitoring, and facilitating learning. The rufa subspecies of red knots (Calidris canutus rufa), which has recently exhibited steep population declines, relies on horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) eggs as their primary food source during stopover in Delaware Bay during spring migration. We present a model with two different parameterizations for use in the adaptive management of horseshoe crab harvests in the Delaware Bay that links red knot mass gain, annual survival, and fecundity to horseshoe crab dynamics. The models reflect prevailing hypotheses regarding ecological links between these two species. When reported crab harvest from 1998 to 2008 was applied, projections corresponded to the observed red knot population abundances depending on strengths of the demographic relationship between these species. We compared different simulated horseshoe crab harvest strategies to evaluate whether, given this model, horseshoe crab harvest management can affect red knot conservation and found that restricting harvest can benefit red knot populations. Our model is the first to explicitly and quantitatively link these two species and will be used within an adaptive management framework to manage the Delaware Bay system and learn more about the specific nature of the linkage between the two species.

  7. Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

    PubMed

    Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

    2017-04-01

    Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Evaluation of the impact of chitosan/DNA nanoparticles on the differentiation of human naive CD4+ T cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lanxia; Bai, Yuanyuan; Zhu, Dunwan; Song, Liping; Wang, Hai; Dong, Xia; Zhang, Hailing; Leng, Xigang

    2011-06-01

    Chitosan (CS) is one of the most widely studied polymers in non-viral gene delivery since it is a cationic polysaccharide that forms nanoparticles with DNA and hence protects the DNA against digestion by DNase. However, the impact of CS/DNA nanoparticle on the immune system still remains poorly understood. Previous investigations did not found CS/DNA nanoparticles had any significant impact on the function of human and murine macrophages. To date, little is known about the interaction between CS/DNA nanoparticles and naive CD4+ T cells. This study was designed to investigate whether CS/DNA nanoparticles affect the initial differentiation direction of human naive CD4+ T cells. The indirect impact of CS/DNA nanoparticles on naive CD4+ T cell differentiation was investigated by incubating the nanoparticles with human macrophage THP-1 cells in one chamber of a transwell co-incubation system, with the enriched human naive CD4+ T cells being placed in the other chamber of the transwell. The nanoparticles were also co-incubated with the naive CD4+ T cells to explore their direct impact on naive CD4+ T cell differentiation by measuring the release of IL-4 and IFN-γ from the cells. It was demonstrated that CS/DNA nanoparticles induced slightly elevated production of IL-12 by THP-1 cells, possibly owing to the presence of CpG motifs in the plasmid. However, this macrophage stimulating activity was much less significant as compared with lipopolysaccharide and did not impact on the differentiation of the naive CD4+ T cells. It was also demonstrated that, when directly exposed to the naive CD4+ T cells, the nanoparticles induced neither the activation of the naive CD4+ T cells in the absence of recombinant cytokines (recombinant human IL-4 or IFN-γ) that induce naive CD4+ T cell polarization, nor any changes in the differentiation direction of naive CD4+ T cells in the presence of the corresponding cytokines.

  9. Study of Circulation in the Tillamook Bay and the Surrounding Wetland Applying Triple-Nested Models Downscaling from Global Ocean to Estuary

    EPA Science Inventory

    To study the circulation and water quality in the Tillamook Bay, Oregon, a high-resolution estuarine model that covers the shallow bay and the surrounding wetland has been developed. The estuarine circulation at Tillamook Bay is mainly driven by the tides and the river flows and ...

  10. Three-Dimensional Eutrophication Model of Chesapeake Bay. Volume 1: Main Report.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-05-01

    c.d.g (4-68) - Krpon RPON - WSr 5 RPON Nitrate NO 3 = [ (PNx - 1)PxANCxBx x=c, d ,g (4-69) + NT - ANDC Denit DOC Silica The model incorporates two siliceous...Dimensional Eutrophication Model of Chesapeake Bay Volume I: Main Report D TIC by Carl F. Cerco, Thomas M. Cole ELECTE• JUN 2 810,94U Approved For...Approach ................................... 15-13 Comparison of Analytical and Empirical Results ............... 15-19 D iscussion

  11. Wind-Driven Waves in Tampa Bay, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilbert, S. A.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

    2002-12-01

    Turbidity and nutrient flux due to sediment resuspension by waves and currents are important factors controlling water quality in Tampa Bay. During December 2001 and January 2002, four Sea Bird Electronics SeaGauge wave and tide recorders were deployed in Tampa Bay in each major bay segment. Since May 2002, a SeaGauge has been continuously deployed at a site in middle Tampa Bay as a component of the Bay Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE). Initial results for the summer 2002 data indicate that significant wave height is linearly dependent on wind speed and direction over a range of 1 to 12 m/s. The data were divided into four groups according to wind direction. Wave height dependence on wind speed was examined for each group. Both northeasterly and southwesterly winds force significant wave heights that are about 30% larger than those for northwesterly and southeasterly winds. This difference is explained by variations in fetch due to basin shape. Comparisons are made between these observations and the results of a SWAN-based model of Tampa Bay. The SWAN wave model is coupled to a three-dimensional circulation model and computes wave spectra at each model grid cell under observed wind conditions and modeled water velocity. When SWAN is run without dissipation, the model results are generally similar in wave period but about 25%-50% higher in significant wave height than the observations. The impact of various dissipation mechanisms such as bottom drag and whitecapping on the wave state is being investigated. Preliminary analyses on winter data give similar results.

  12. Verification of the Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Hybrid Modeling System for Cumberland Sound and Kings Bay Navigation Channel, Georgia

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-07-01

    TECHNICAL REPORT HL-89-14 VERIFICATION OF THE HYDRODYNAMIC AND Si SEDIMENT TRANSPORT HYBRID MODELING SYSTEM FOR CUMBERLAND SOUND AND I’) KINGS BAY...Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Hybrid Modeling System for Cumberland Sound and Kings Bay Navigation Channel, Georgia 12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Granat...Hydrodynamic results from RMA-2V were used in the numerical sediment transport code STUDH in modeling the interaction of the flow transport and

  13. Revised method and outcomes for estimating soil phosphorus losses from agricultural land in the Chesapeake Bay watershed model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Current restoration efforts for the Chesapeake Bay watershed mandate a timeline for reducing the load of nutrients and sediment to receiving waters. The Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) has been used for two decades to simulate hydrology and nutrient and sediment transport; however, spatial limi...

  14. 75 FR 29891 - Special Local Regulation; Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-28

    ...-AA08 Special Local Regulation; Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay... Lighthouse Dock, Fire Island, NY due to the annual Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim..., Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, NY, in the Federal Register (74...

  15. Development, calibration, and analysis of a hydrologic and water-quality model of the Delaware Inland Bays watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez-Magness, Angelica L.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.

    2003-01-01

    Excessive nutrients and sediment are among the most significant environmental stressors in the Delaware Inland Bays (Rehoboth, Indian River, and Little Assawoman Bays). Sources of nutrients, sediment, and other contaminants within the Inland Bays watershed include point-source discharges from industries and wastewater-treatment plants, runoff and infiltration to ground water from agricultural fields and poultry operations, effluent from on-site wastewater disposal systems, and atmospheric deposition. To determine the most effective restoration methods for the Inland Bays, it is necessary to understand the relative distribution and contribution of each of the possible sources of nutrients, sediment, and other contaminants. A cooperative study involving the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, the Delaware Geological Survey, and the U.S. Geological Survey was initiated in 2000 to develop a hydrologic and water-quality model of the Delaware Inland Bays watershed that can be used as a water-resources planning and management tool. The model code Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) was used. The 719-square-kilometer watershed was divided into 45 model segments, and the model was calibrated using streamflow and water-quality data for January 1999 through April 2000 from six U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations within the watershed. Calibration for some parameters was accomplished using PEST, a model-independent parameter estimator. Model parameters were adjusted systematically so that the discrepancies between the simulated values and the corresponding observations were minimized. Modeling results indicate that soil and aquifer permeability, ditching, dominant land-use class, and land-use practices affect the amount of runoff, the mechanism or flow path (surface flow, interflow, or base flow), and the loads of sediment and nutrients. In general, the edge-of-stream total suspended solids yields in the Inland Bays

  16. An Adaptive Model of Student Performance Using Inverse Bayes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lang, Charles

    2014-01-01

    This article proposes a coherent framework for the use of Inverse Bayesian estimation to summarize and make predictions about student behaviour in adaptive educational settings. The Inverse Bayes Filter utilizes Bayes theorem to estimate the relative impact of contextual factors and internal student factors on student performance using time series…

  17. Physical processes in a coupled bay-estuary coastal system: Whitsand Bay and Plymouth Sound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uncles, R. J.; Stephens, J. A.; Harris, C.

    2015-09-01

    Whitsand Bay and Plymouth Sound are located in the southwest of England. The Bay and Sound are separated by the ∼2-3 km-wide Rame Peninsula and connected by ∼10-20 m-deep English Channel waters. Results are presented from measurements of waves and currents, drogue tracking, surveys of salinity, temperature and turbidity during stratified and unstratified conditions, and bed sediment surveys. 2D and 3D hydrodynamic models are used to explore the generation of tidally- and wind-driven residual currents, flow separation and the formation of the Rame eddy, and the coupling between the Bay and the Sound. Tidal currents flow around the Rame Peninsula from the Sound to the Bay between approximately 3 h before to 2 h after low water and form a transport path between them that conveys lower salinity, higher turbidity waters from the Sound to the Bay. These waters are then transported into the Bay as part of the Bay-mouth limb of the Rame eddy and subsequently conveyed to the near-shore, east-going limb and re-circulated back towards Rame Head. The Simpson-Hunter stratification parameter indicates that much of the Sound and Bay are likely to stratify thermally during summer months. Temperature stratification in both is pronounced during summer and is largely determined by coastal, deeper-water stratification offshore. Small tidal stresses in the Bay are unable to move bed sediment of the observed sizes. However, the Bay and Sound are subjected to large waves that are capable of driving a substantial bed-load sediment transport. Measurements show relatively low levels of turbidity, but these respond rapidly to, and have a strong correlation with, wave height.

  18. Modeling of Selenium for the San Diego Creek Watershed and Newport Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Presser, Theresa S.; Luoma, Samuel N.

    2009-01-01

    The San Diego Creek watershed and Newport Bay in southern California are contaminated with selenium (Se) as a result of groundwater associated with urban development overlying a historical wetland, the Swamp of the Frogs. The primary Se source is drainage from surrounding seleniferous marine sedimentary formations. An ecosystem-scale model was employed as a tool to assist development of a site-specific Se objective for the region. The model visualizes outcomes of different exposure scenarios in terms of bioaccumulation in predators using partitioning coefficients, trophic transfer factors, and site-specific data for food-web inhabitants and particulate phases. Predicted Se concentrations agreed well with field observations, validating the use of the model as realistic tool for testing exposure scenarios. Using the fish tissue and bird egg guidelines suggested by regulatory agencies, allowable water concentrations were determined for different conditions and locations in the watershed and the bay. The model thus facilitated development of a site-specific Se objective that was locally relevant and provided a basis for step-by-step implementation of source control.

  19. 33 CFR 100.124 - Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York. 100.124 Section 100.124 Navigation and Navigable... NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.124 Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York. (a) Regulated area. All navigable waters of Great South Bay, NY within a 100 yard radius of each...

  20. Observed and modeled tsunami current velocities in Humboldt Bay and Crescent City Harbor, northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Admire, A. R.; Dengler, L.; Crawford, G. B.; uslu, B. U.; Montoya, J.

    2012-12-01

    Crescent City were compared to calculated velocities from the Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) numerical model. For Humboldt Bay, the 2010 model tsunami frequencies matched the actual values for the first two hours after the initial arrival however the amplitudes were underestimated by approximately 65%. MOST replicated the first four hours of the 2011 tsunami signal in Humboldt Bay quite well although the peak flood currents were underestimated by about 50%. MOST predicted attenuation of the signal after four hours but the actual signal persisted at a nearly constant level for more than 48 hours. In Crescent City, the model prediction of the 2011 frequency agreed quite well with the observed signal for the first two and a half hours after the initial arrival with a 50% underestimation of the peak amplitude. The results from this project demonstrate that ADCPs can effectively record tsunami currents for small to moderate events and can be used to calibrate and validate models (i.e. MOST) in order to better predict hazardous tsunami conditions and improve planned responses to protect lives and property, especially within harbors. An ADCP will be installed in Crescent City Harbor and four additional ADCPs are being deployed in Humboldt Bay during the fall of 2012.

  1. Bayes factors based on robust TDT-type tests for family trio design.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Min; Pan, Xiaoqing; Yang, Yaning

    2015-06-01

    Adaptive transmission disequilibrium test (aTDT) and MAX3 test are two robust-efficient association tests for case-parent family trio data. Both tests incorporate information of common genetic models including recessive, additive and dominant models and are efficient in power and robust to genetic model specifications. The aTDT uses information of departure from Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium to identify the potential genetic model underlying the data and then applies the corresponding TDT-type test, and the MAX3 test is defined as the maximum of the absolute value of three TDT-type tests under the three common genetic models. In this article, we propose three robust Bayes procedures, the aTDT based Bayes factor, MAX3 based Bayes factor and Bayes model averaging (BMA), for association analysis with case-parent trio design. The asymptotic distributions of aTDT under the null and alternative hypothesis are derived in order to calculate its Bayes factor. Extensive simulations show that the Bayes factors and the p-values of the corresponding tests are generally consistent and these Bayes factors are robust to genetic model specifications, especially so when the priors on the genetic models are equal. When equal priors are used for the underlying genetic models, the Bayes factor method based on aTDT is more powerful than those based on MAX3 and Bayes model averaging. When the prior placed a small (large) probability on the true model, the Bayes factor based on aTDT (BMA) is more powerful. Analysis of a simulation data about RA from GAW15 is presented to illustrate applications of the proposed methods.

  2. Tidal, Residual, Intertidal Mudflat (TRIM) Model and its Applications to San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cheng, R.T.; Casulli, V.; Gartner, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    A numerical model using a semi-implicit finite-difference method for solving the two-dimensional shallow-water equations is presented. The gradient of the water surface elevation in the momentum equations and the velocity divergence in the continuity equation are finite-differenced implicitly, the remaining terms are finite-differenced explicitly. The convective terms are treated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian method. The combination of the semi-implicit finite-difference solution for the gravity wave propagation, and the Eulerian-Lagrangian treatment of the convective terms renders the numerical model unconditionally stable. When the baroclinic forcing is included, a salt transport equation is coupled to the momentum equations, and the numerical method is subject to a weak stability condition. The method of solution and the properties of the numerical model are given. This numerical model is particularly suitable for applications to coastal plain estuaries and tidal embayments in which tidal currents are dominant, and tidally generated residual currents are important. The model is applied to San Francisco Bay, California where extensive historical tides and current-meter data are available. The model calibration is considered by comparing time-series of the field data and of the model results. Alternatively, and perhaps more meaningfully, the model is calibrated by comparing the harmonic constants of tides and tidal currents derived from field data with those derived from the model. The model is further verified by comparing the model results with an independent data set representing the wet season. The strengths and the weaknesses of the model are assessed based on the results of model calibration and verification. Using the model results, the properties of tides and tidal currents in San Francisco Bay are characterized and discussed. Furthermore, using the numerical model, estimates of San Francisco Bay's volume, surface area, mean water depth, tidal prisms, and

  3. Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam ( Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horiguchi, Fumio; Nakata, Kisaburo; Ito, Naganori; Okawa, Ken

    2006-12-01

    A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1-3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects. A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.

  4. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

    PubMed

    Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

    2005-06-01

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

  5. Naive B cells generate regulatory T cells in the presence of a mature immunologic synapse.

    PubMed

    Reichardt, Peter; Dornbach, Bastian; Rong, Song; Beissert, Stefan; Gueler, Faikah; Loser, Karin; Gunzer, Matthias

    2007-09-01

    Naive B cells are ineffective antigen-presenting cells and are considered unable to activate naive T cells. However, antigen-specific contact of these cells leads to stable cell pairs that remain associated over hours in vivo. The physiologic role of such pairs has not been evaluated. We show here that antigen-specific conjugates between naive B cells and naive T cells display a mature immunologic synapse in the contact zone that is absent in T-cell-dendritic-cell (DC) pairs. B cells induce substantial proliferation but, contrary to DCs, no loss of L-selectin in T cells. Surprisingly, while DC-triggered T cells develop into normal effector cells, B-cell stimulation over 72 hours induces regulatory T cells inhibiting priming of fresh T cells in a contact-dependent manner in vitro. In vivo, the regulatory T cells home to lymph nodes where they potently suppress immune responses such as in cutaneous hypersensitivity and ectopic allogeneic heart transplant rejection. Our finding might help to explain old observations on tolerance induction by B cells, identify the mature immunologic synapse as a central functional module of this process, and suggest the use of naive B-cell-primed regulatory T cells, "bTregs," as a useful approach for therapeutic intervention in adverse adaptive immune responses.

  6. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  7. 2010 bathymetric survey and digital elevation model of Corte Madera Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foxgrover, Amy C.; Finlayson, David P.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Spragens, Kyle A.

    2011-01-01

    A high-resolution bathymetric survey of Corte Madera Bay, California, was collected in early 2010 in support of a collaborative research project initiated by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission and funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The primary objective of the Innovative Wetland Adaptation in the Lower Corte Madera Creek Watershed Project is to develop shoreline adaptation strategies to future sea-level rise based upon sound science. Fundamental to this research was the development of an of an up-to-date, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) extending from the subtidal environment through the surrounding intertidal marsh. We provide bathymetric data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and have merged the bathymetry with a 1-m resolution aerial lidar data set that was collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the same time period to create a seamless, high-resolution DEM of Corte Madera Bay and the surrounding topography. The bathymetric and DEM surfaces are provided at both 1 m and 10 m resolutions formatted as both X, Y, Z text files and ESRI Arc ASCII files, which are accompanied by Federal Geographic Data Committee compliant metadata.

  8. Opinion mining feature-level using Naive Bayes and feature extraction based analysis dependencies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanda, Regi; Baizal, Z. K. Abdurahman; Nhita, Fhira

    2015-12-01

    Development of internet and technology, has major impact and providing new business called e-commerce. Many e-commerce sites that provide convenience in transaction, and consumers can also provide reviews or opinions on products that purchased. These opinions can be used by consumers and producers. Consumers to know the advantages and disadvantages of particular feature of the product. Procuders can analyse own strengths and weaknesses as well as it's competitors products. Many opinions need a method that the reader can know the point of whole opinion. The idea emerged from review summarization that summarizes the overall opinion based on sentiment and features contain. In this study, the domain that become the main focus is about the digital camera. This research consisted of four steps 1) giving the knowledge to the system to recognize the semantic orientation of an opinion 2) indentify the features of product 3) indentify whether the opinion gives a positive or negative 4) summarizing the result. In this research discussed the methods such as Naï;ve Bayes for sentiment classification, and feature extraction algorithm based on Dependencies Analysis, which is one of the tools in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and knowledge based dictionary which is useful for handling implicit features. The end result of research is a summary that contains a bunch of reviews from consumers on the features and sentiment. With proposed method, accuration for sentiment classification giving 81.2 % for positive test data, 80.2 % for negative test data, and accuration for feature extraction reach 90.3 %.

  9. 33 CFR 167.103 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. 167.103 Section 167.103 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. (a) A separation...

  10. 33 CFR 167.102 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. 167.102 Section 167.102 Navigation and....102 In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. (a) A...

  11. 33 CFR 167.103 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. 167.103 Section 167.103 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. (a) A separation...

  12. 33 CFR 167.103 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. 167.103 Section 167.103 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. (a) A separation...

  13. 33 CFR 167.102 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. 167.102 Section 167.102 Navigation and....102 In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. (a) A...

  14. 33 CFR 167.102 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. 167.102 Section 167.102 Navigation and....102 In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. (a) A...

  15. 33 CFR 167.103 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. 167.103 Section 167.103 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Buzzards Bay approach. (a) A separation...

  16. 33 CFR 167.102 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. 167.102 Section 167.102 Navigation and....102 In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Narragansett Bay approach. (a) A...

  17. AN "ENVIRO-INFORMATIC" ASSESSMENT OF SAGINAW BAY (LAKE HURON, USA) PHYTOPLANKTON: DATA-DRIVEN CHARACTERIZATION AND MODELING OF MICROCYSTIS (CYANOPHYTA)(1).

    PubMed

    Millie, David F; Fahnenstiel, Gary L; Weckman, Gary R; Klarer, David M; Dyble, Julianne; Vanderploeg, Henry A; Fishman, Daniel B

    2011-08-01

    Phytoplankton and Microcystis aeruginosa (Kütz.) Kütz. biovolumes were characterized and modeled, respectively, with regard to hydrological and meteorological variables during zebra mussel invasion in Saginaw Bay (1990-1996). Total phytoplankton and Microcystis biomass within the inner bay were one and one-half and six times greater, respectively, than those of the outer bay. Following mussel invasion, mean total biomass in the inner bay decreased 84% but then returned to its approximate initial value. Microcystis was not present in the bay during 1990 and 1991 and thereafter occurred at/in 52% of sample sites/dates with the greatest biomass occurring in 1994-1996 and within months having water temperatures >19°C. With an overall relative biomass of 0.03 ± 0.01 (mean + SE), Microcystis had, at best, a marginal impact upon holistic compositional dynamics. Dynamics of the centric diatom Cyclotella ocellata Pant. and large pennate diatoms dominated compositional dissimilarities both inter- and intra-annually. The environmental variables that corresponded with phytoplankton distributions were similar for the inner and outer bays, and together identified physical forcing and biotic utilization of nutrients as determinants of system-level biomass patterns. Nonparametric models explained 70%-85% of the variability in Microcystis biovolumes and identified maximal biomass to occur at total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranging from 40 to 45 μg · L(-1) . From isometric projections depicting modeled Microcystis/environmental interactions, a TP concentration of <30 μg · L(-1) was identified as a desirable contemporary "target" for management efforts to ameliorate bloom potentials throughout mussel-impacted bay waters. © 2011 Phycological Society of America.

  18. 33 CFR 100.124 - Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York. 100.124 Section 100.124 Navigation and Navigable... NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.124 Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York...

  19. Wood identification of Dalbergia nigra (CITES Appendix I) using quantitative wood anatomy, principal components analysis and naive Bayes classification.

    PubMed

    Gasson, Peter; Miller, Regis; Stekel, Dov J; Whinder, Frances; Zieminska, Kasia

    2010-01-01

    Dalbergia nigra is one of the most valuable timber species of its genus, having been traded for over 300 years. Due to over-exploitation it is facing extinction and trade has been banned under CITES Appendix I since 1992. Current methods, primarily comparative wood anatomy, are inadequate for conclusive species identification. This study aims to find a set of anatomical characters that distinguish the wood of D. nigra from other commercially important species of Dalbergia from Latin America. Qualitative and quantitative wood anatomy, principal components analysis and naïve Bayes classification were conducted on 43 specimens of Dalbergia, eight D. nigra and 35 from six other Latin American species. Dalbergia cearensis and D. miscolobium can be distinguished from D. nigra on the basis of vessel frequency for the former, and ray frequency for the latter. Principal components analysis was unable to provide any further basis for separating the species. Naïve Bayes classification using the four characters: minimum vessel diameter; frequency of solitary vessels; mean ray width; and frequency of axially fused rays, classified all eight D. nigra correctly with no false negatives, but there was a false positive rate of 36.36 %. Wood anatomy alone cannot distinguish D. nigra from all other commercially important Dalbergia species likely to be encountered by customs officials, but can be used to reduce the number of specimens that would need further study.

  20. Modeling the periodic stratification and gravitational circulation in San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cheng, Ralph T.; Casulli, Vincenzo

    1996-01-01

    A high resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic numerical model is applied to San Francisco Bay, California to simulate the periodic tidal stratification caused by tidal straining and stirring and their long-term effects on gravitational circulation. The numerical model is formulated using fixed levels in the vertical and uniform computational mesh on horizontal planes. The governing conservation equations, the 3-D shallow water equations, are solved by a semi-implicit finite-difference scheme. Numerical simulations for estuarine flows in San Francisco Bay have been performed to reproduce the hydrodynamic properties of tides, tidal and residual currents, and salt transport. All simulations were carried out to cover at least 30 days, so that the spring-neap variance in the model results could be analyzed. High grid resolution used in the model permits the use of a simple turbulence closure scheme which has been shown to be sufficient to reproduce the tidal cyclic stratification and well-mixed conditions in the water column. Low-pass filtered 3-D time-series reveals the classic estuarine gravitational circulation with a surface layer flowing down-estuary and an up-estuary flow near the bottom. The intensity of the gravitational circulation depends upon the amount of freshwater inflow, the degree of stratification, and spring-neap tidal variations.

  1. Naive T-cell receptor transgenic T cells help memory B cells produce antibody

    PubMed Central

    Duffy, Darragh; Yang, Chun-Ping; Heath, Andrew; Garside, Paul; Bell, Eric B

    2006-01-01

    Injection of the same antigen following primary immunization induces a classic secondary response characterized by a large quantity of high-affinity antibody of an immunoglobulin G class produced more rapidly than in the initial response – the products of memory B cells are qualitatively distinct from that of the original naive B lymphocytes. Very little is known of the help provided by the CD4 T cells that stimulate memory B cells. Using antigen-specific T-cell receptor transgenic CD4 T cells (DO11.10) as a source of help, we found that naive transgenic T cells stimulated memory B cells almost as well (in terms of quantity and speed) as transgenic T cells that had been recently primed. There was a direct correlation between serum antibody levels and the number of naive transgenic T cells transferred. Using T cells from transgenic interleukin-2-deficient mice we showed that interleukin-2 was not required for a secondary response, although it was necessary for a primary response. The results suggested that the signals delivered by CD4 T cells and required by memory B cells for their activation were common to both antigen-primed and naive CD4 T cells. PMID:17067314

  2. Genomic prediction using an iterative conditional expectation algorithm for a fast BayesC-like model.

    PubMed

    Dong, Linsong; Wang, Zhiyong

    2018-06-11

    Genomic prediction is feasible for estimating genomic breeding values because of dense genome-wide markers and credible statistical methods, such as Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) and various Bayesian methods. Compared with GBLUP, Bayesian methods propose more flexible assumptions for the distributions of SNP effects. However, most Bayesian methods are performed based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, leading to computational efficiency challenges. Hence, some fast Bayesian approaches, such as fast BayesB (fBayesB), were proposed to speed up the calculation. This study proposed another fast Bayesian method termed fast BayesC (fBayesC). The prior distribution of fBayesC assumes that a SNP with probability γ has a non-zero effect which comes from a normal density with a common variance. The simulated data from QTLMAS XII workshop and actual data on large yellow croaker were used to compare the predictive results of fBayesB, fBayesC and (MCMC-based) BayesC. The results showed that when γ was set as a small value, such as 0.01 in the simulated data or 0.001 in the actual data, fBayesB and fBayesC yielded lower prediction accuracies (abilities) than BayesC. In the actual data, fBayesC could yield very similar predictive abilities as BayesC when γ ≥ 0.01. When γ = 0.01, fBayesB could also yield similar results as fBayesC and BayesC. However, fBayesB could not yield an explicit result when γ ≥ 0.1, but a similar situation was not observed for fBayesC. Moreover, the computational speed of fBayesC was significantly faster than that of BayesC, making fBayesC a promising method for genomic prediction.

  3. IL-21 sustains CD28 expression on IL-15-activated human naive CD8+ T cells.

    PubMed

    Alves, Nuno L; Arosa, Fernando A; van Lier, René A W

    2005-07-15

    Human naive CD8+ T cells are able to respond in an Ag-independent manner to IL-7 and IL-15. Whereas IL-7 largely maintains CD8+ T cells in a naive phenotype, IL-15 drives these cells to an effector phenotype characterized, among other features, by down-regulation of the costimulatory molecule CD28. We evaluated the influence of the CD4+ Th cell-derived common gamma-chain cytokine IL-21 on cytokine-induced naive CD8+ T cell activation. Stimulation with IL-21 did not induce division and only slightly increased IL-15-induced proliferation of naive CD8+ T cells. Strikingly, however, IL-15-induced down-modulation of CD28 was completely prevented by IL-21 at the protein and transcriptional level. Subsequent stimulation via combined TCR/CD3 and CD28 triggering led to a markedly higher production of IL-2 and IFN-gamma in IL-15/IL-21-stimulated cells compared with IL-15-stimulated T cells. Our data show that IL-21 modulates the phenotype of naive CD8+ T cells that have undergone IL-15 induced homeostatic proliferation and preserves their responsiveness to CD28 ligands.

  4. A time-dependent, three-dimensional model of the Delaware Bay and River system. Part 2: Three-dimensional flow fields and residual circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galperin, Boris; Mellor, George L.

    1990-09-01

    The three-dimensional model of Delaware Bay, River and adjacent continental shelf was described in Part 1. Here, Part 2 of this two-part paper demonstrates that the model is capable of realistic simulation of current and salinity distributions, tidal cycle variability, events of strong mixing caused by high winds and rapid salinity changes due to high river runoff. The 25-h average subtidal circulation strongly depends on the wind forcing. Monthly residual currents and salinity distributions demonstrate a classical two-layer estuarine circulation wherein relatively low salinity water flows out at the surface and compensating high salinity water from the shelf flows at the bottom. The salinity intrusion is most vigorous along deep channels in the Bay. Winds can generate salinity fronts inside and outside the Bay and enhance or weaken the two-layer circulation pattern. Since the portion of the continental shelf included in the model is limited, the model shelf circulation is locally wind-driven and excludes such effects as coastally trapped waves and interaction with Gulf Stream rings; nevertheless, a significant portion of the coastal elevation variability is hindcast by the model. Also, inclusion of the shelf improves simulation of salinity inside the Bay compared with simulations where the salinity boundary condition is specified at the mouth of the Bay.

  5. Left Ventricular Strain in Chemotherapy-Naive and Radiotherapy-Naive Patients With Cancer.

    PubMed

    Tadic, Marijana; Genger, Martin; Baudisch, Ana; Kelle, Sebastian; Cuspidi, Cesare; Belyavskiy, Evgeny; Burkhardt, Franziska; Venneri, Lucia; Attanasio, Philipp; Pieske, Burkert

    2018-03-01

    We sought to investigate left ventricular (LV) function and mechanics in patients with cancer before they received chemotherapy or radiotherapy, as well as the relationship between cancer and reduced LV multidirectional strain in the whole study population. The retrospective study involved 122 chemotherapy- and radiotherapy-naive patients with cancer and 45 age- and sex-matched controls with a cardiovascular risk profile similar to that of the patients with cancer. All the patients underwent echocardiographic examination before introduction of chemotherapy or radiotherapy. LV longitudinal (-19.1% ± 2.1% vs -17.8% ± 3.5%; P = 0.022), circumferential (-22.9% ± 3.5% vs -20.1% ± 4.1%; P < 0.001), and radial (40.5% ± 8.8% vs 35.2% ± 10.7%; P = 0.004) strain was significantly lower in the patients with cancer than in the control group. Endocardial and midmyocardial longitudinal LV strain was significantly reduced in the patients with cancer compared with the controls, whereas epicardial longitudinal strain was similar between these groups. Endocardial, midmyocardial, and epicardial circumferential strain was significantly lower in the chemotherapy- or radiotherapy-naive patients with cancer than in the controls. Cancer was associated with reduced longitudinal (odds ratio [OR], 9.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.20-23.50; P < 0.001), reduced circumferential (OR, 7.1; 95% CI, 3.80-20.40; P < 0.001), and reduced radial strain (OR, 7.2; 95% CI, 3.41-25.10; P < 0.001) independent of age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension. LV mechanics was impaired in the patients with cancer compared with the controls even before initiation of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Cancer and hypertension were associated with reduced LV multidirectional strain independent of other clinical parameters. The present results indicate that cancer itself potentially induces cardiac remodelling independent of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Copyright © 2017 Canadian

  6. Alternative models of climatic effects on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adkison, M.; Peterman, R.; Lapointe, M.; Gillis, D.; Korman, J.

    1996-01-01

    We compare alternative models of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity (returns per spawner) using more than 30 years of catch and escapement data for Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. The models examined include several alternative forms of models that incorporate climatic influences as well as models not based on climate. For most stocks, a stationary stock-recruitment relationship explains very little of the interannual variation in productivity. In Bristol Bay, productivity co-varies among stocks and appears to be strongly related to fluctuations in climate. The best model for Bristol Bay sockeye involved a change in the 1970s in the parameters of the Ricker stock-recruitment curve; the stocks generally became more productive. In contrast, none of the models of Fraser River stocks that we examined explained much of the variability in their productivity.

  7. Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on salinity in Biscayne Bay, Florida, using an integrated surface-water/groundwater model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lohmann, Melinda A.; Swain, Eric D.; Wang, John D.; Dixon, Joann

    2012-01-01

    Biscayne National Park, located in Biscayne Bay in southeast Florida, is one of the largest marine parks in the country and sustains a large natural marine fishery where numerous threatened and endangered species reproduce. In recent years, the bay has experienced hypersaline conditions (salinity greater than 35 practical salinity units) of increasing magnitude and duration. Hypersalinity events were particularly pronounced during April to August 2004 in nearshore areas along the southern and middle parts of the bay. Prolonged hypersaline conditions can cause degradation of water quality and permanent damage to, or loss of, brackish nursery habitats for multiple species of fish and crustaceans as well as damage to certain types of seagrasses that are not tolerant of extreme changes in salinity. To evaluate the factors that contribute to hypersalinity events and to test the effects of possible changes in precipitation patterns and canal flows into Biscayne Bay on salinity in the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a coupled surface-water/groundwater numerical flow model. The model is designed to account for freshwater flows into Biscayne Bay through the canal system, leakage of salty bay water into the underlying Biscayne aquifer, discharge of fresh and salty groundwater from the Biscayne aquifer into the bay, direct effects of precipitation on bay salinity, indirect effects of precipitation on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, direct effects of evapotranspiration (ET) on bay salinity, indirect effects of ET on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, and maintenance of mass balance of both water and solute. The model was constructed using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator, version 3.3, which couples the two-dimensional, surface-water flow and solute-transport simulator SWIFT2D with the density-dependent, groundwater flow an solute-transport simulator SEAWAT. The model was calibrated by a trial

  8. Lessons Learned from the Bay Region Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE) and Implications for Nitrogen Management of Tampa Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    Results from air quality modeling and field measurements made as part of the Bay Region Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE) along with related scientific literature were reviewed to provide an improved estimate of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N) deposition to Tampa Bay, to...

  9. DEVELOP Chesapeake Bay Watershed Hydrology - UAV Sensor Web

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holley, S. D.; Baruah, A.

    2008-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States, with a watershed extending through six states and the nation's capital. Urbanization and agriculture practices have led to an excess runoff of nutrients and sediment into the bay. Nutrients and sediment loading stimulate the growth of algal blooms associated with various problems including localized dissolved oxygen deficiencies, toxic algal blooms and death of marine life. The Chesapeake Bay Program, among other stakeholder organizations, contributes greatly to the restoration efforts of the Chesapeake Bay. These stakeholders contribute in many ways such as monitoring the water quality, leading clean-up projects, and actively restoring native habitats. The first stage of the DEVELOP Chesapeake Bay Coastal Management project, relating to water quality, contributed to the restoration efforts by introducing NASA satellite-based water quality data products to the stakeholders as a complement to their current monitoring methods. The second stage, to be initiated in the fall 2008 internship term, will focus on the impacts of land cover variability within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Multiple student led discussions with members of the Land Cover team at the Chesapeake Bay Program Office in the DEVELOP GSFC 2008 summer term uncovered the need for remote sensing data for hydrological mapping in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay Program expressed in repeated discussions on Land Cover mapping that significant portions of upper river areas, streams, and the land directly interfacing those waters are not accurately depicted in the watershed model. Without such hydrological mapping correlated with land cover data the model will not be useful in depicting source areas of nutrient loading which has an ecological and economic impact in and around the Chesapeake Bay. The fall 2008 DEVELOP team will examine the use of UAV flown sensors in connection with in-situ and Earth Observation satellite data. To maximize the

  10. 33 CFR 110.78 - Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. 110.78 Section 110.78 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY ANCHORAGES ANCHORAGE REGULATIONS Special Anchorage Areas § 110.78 Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. (a) Area 1...

  11. 33 CFR 110.78 - Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. 110.78 Section 110.78 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY ANCHORAGES ANCHORAGE REGULATIONS Special Anchorage Areas § 110.78 Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. (a) Area 1...

  12. 33 CFR 110.78 - Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. 110.78 Section 110.78 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY ANCHORAGES ANCHORAGE REGULATIONS Special Anchorage Areas § 110.78 Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. (a) Area 1...

  13. 33 CFR 110.78 - Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. 110.78 Section 110.78 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY ANCHORAGES ANCHORAGE REGULATIONS Special Anchorage Areas § 110.78 Sturgeon Bay, Sturgeon Bay, Wis. (a) Area 1...

  14. Tampa Bay Study Data and Information Management System (DIMS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edgar, N. T.; Johnston, J. B.; Yates, K.; Smith, K. E.

    2005-05-01

    Providing easy access to data and information is an essential component of both science and management. The Tampa Bay Data and Information Management System (DIMS) catalogs and publicizes data and products which are generated through the Tampa Bay Integrated Science Study. The publicly accessible interface consists of a Web site (http://gulfsci.usgs.gov), a digital library, and an interactive map server (IMS). The Tampa Bay Study Web site contains information from scientists involved in the study, and is also the portal site for the digital library and IMS. Study information is highlighted on the Web site according to the estuarine component: geology and geomorphology, water and sediment quality, ecosystem structure and function, and hydrodynamics. The Tampa Bay Digital Library is a web-based clearinghouse for digital products on Tampa Bay, including documents, maps, spatial and tabular data sets, presentations, etc. New developments to the digital library include new search features, 150 new products over the past year, and partnerships to expand the offering of science products. The IMS is a Web-based geographic information system (GIS) used to store, analyze and display data pertaining to Tampa Bay. Upgrades to the IMS have improved performance and speed, as well as increased the number of data sets available for mapping. The Tampa Bay DIMS is a dynamic entity and will continue to evolve with the study. Beginning in 2005, the Tampa Bay Integrated Coastal Model will have a more prominent presence within the DIMS. The Web site will feature model projects and plans; the digital library will host model products and data sets; the IMS will display spatial model data sets and analyses. These tools will be used to increase communication of USGS efforts in Tampa Bay to the public, local managers, and scientists.

  15. A three-dimensional, time-dependent model of Mobile Bay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pitts, F. H.; Farmer, R. C.

    1976-01-01

    A three-dimensional, time-variant mathematical model for momentum and mass transport in estuaries was developed and its solution implemented on a digital computer. The mathematical model is based on state and conservation equations applied to turbulent flow of a two-component, incompressible fluid having a free surface. Thus, bouyancy effects caused by density differences between the fresh and salt water, inertia from thare river and tidal currents, and differences in hydrostatic head are taken into account. The conservation equations, which are partial differential equations, are solved numerically by an explicit, one-step finite difference scheme and the solutions displayed numerically and graphically. To test the validity of the model, a specific estuary for which scaled model and experimental field data are available, Mobile Bay, was simulated. Comparisons of velocity, salinity and water level data show that the model is valid and a viable means of simulating the hydrodynamics and mass transport in non-idealized estuaries.

  16. Modelling river discharge and precipitation from estuarine salinity in the northern Chesapeake Bay: Application to Holocene palaeoclimate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Saenger, C.; Cronin, T.; Thunell, R.; Vann, C.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term chronologies of precipitation can provide a baseline against which twentieth-century trends in rainfall can be evaluated in terms of natural variability and anthropogenic influence. However, there are relatively few methods to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoprecipitation and river discharge compared with proxies of other climatic factors, such as temperature. We developed autoregressive and least squares statistical models relating Chesapeake Bay salinity to river discharge and regional precipitation records. Salinity in northern and central parts of the modern Chesapeake Bay is influenced largely by seasonal, interannual and decadal variations in Susquehanna River discharge, which in turn are controlled by regional precipitation patterns. A power regressive discharge model and linear precipitation model exhibit well-defined decadal variations in peak discharge and precipitation. The utility of the models was tested by estimating Holocene palaeoprecipitation and Susquehanna River palaeodischarge, as indicated by isotopically derived palaeosalinity reconstructions from Chesapeake Bay sediment cores. Model results indicate that the early-mid Holocene (7055-5900 yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene (1500 yr BP - present), the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' (MWP) (1200-600 yr BP) was drier than the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA) (500-100 yr BP), and the twentieth century experienced extremes in precipitation possibly associated with changes in ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. ?? 2006 Edward Arnold (Publishers) Ltd.

  17. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar - and often identical - inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  18. Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ryberg, Karen R.; Blomquist, Joel; Sprague, Lori A.; Sekellick, Andrew J.; Keisman, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

  19. Inputs and spatial distribution patterns of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Dongfang; Miao, Zhenqing; Huang, Xinmin; Wei, Linzhen; Feng, Ming

    2018-03-01

    Cr pollution in marine bays has been one of the critical environmental issues, and understanding the input and spatial distribution patterns is essential to pollution control. In according to the source strengths of the major pollution sources, the input patterns of pollutants to marine bay include slight, moderate and heavy, and the spatial distribution are corresponding to three block models respectively. This paper analyzed input patterns and distributions of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay, eastern China based on investigation on Cr in surface waters during 1979-1983. Results showed that the input strengths of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay could be classified as moderate input and slight input, and the input strengths were 32.32-112.30 μg L-1 and 4.17-19.76 μg L-1, respectively. The input patterns of Cr included two patterns of moderate input and slight input, and the horizontal distributions could be defined by means of Block Model 2 and Block Model 3, respectively. In case of moderate input pattern via overland runoff, Cr contents were decreasing from the estuaries to the bay mouth, and the distribution pattern was parallel. In case of moderate input pattern via marine current, Cr contents were decreasing from the bay mouth to the bay, and the distribution pattern was parallel to circular. The Block Models were able to reveal the transferring process of various pollutants, and were helpful to understand the distributions of pollutants in marine bay.

  20. Development of a mass balance model for estimating PCB export from the lower Fox River to Green Bay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Velleux, M.; Endicott, D.

    A mass balance approach was used to model contaminant cycling in the lower Fox River from the DePere Dam to Green Bay. The objectives of this research were (1) to estimate present contaminant export from the Fox River to Green Bay, and (2) to quantify contaminant transport and fate pathways in the lower river for the study period. Specifically, a model describing the transport, fate, and export of chlorides, total suspended solids, total PCBs, and six PCB congeners for the lower Fox River was developed. Field data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Green Bay Mass Balancemore » Study were used to calibrate the model. Model results suggest that the transport of inplace pollutants significantly contributed to the cumulative export of total PCBs over this period. Estimated total PCB transport in the Fox River during 1989 increased 60% between the dam and river mouth due to the resuspension of lower river sediments. Total suspended solids and PCB predictions are most sensitive to particle transport parameters, particularly the settling and resuspension velocities. The significant components of the total PCB mass balance are import (loading over the DePere Dam), settling, resuspension, and export to Green Bay. Volatilization, porewater transport, and point source input were not significant to the mass balance. Present point source discharges to the river are not significant total PCB sources, collectively contributing less than 6 kg of PCB to the river during the mass balance period.« less

  1. Towards improved storm surge models in the northern Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krien, Y.; Testut, L.; Islam, A. K. M. S.; Bertin, X.; Durand, F.; Mayet, C.; Tazkia, A. R.; Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Ballu, V.; Shum, C. K.; Khan, Z. H.

    2017-03-01

    The northern Bay of Bengal is home to some of the deadliest cyclones recorded during the last decades. Storm surge models developed for this region significantly improved in recent years, but they still fail to predict patterns of coastal flooding with sufficient accuracy. In the present paper, we make use of a state-of-the art numerical modeling system with improved bathymetric and topographic data to identify the strengths, weaknesses, and to suggest areas for improvement of current storm surge models in this area. The new model is found to perform relatively well in reproducing waves characteristics and maximum water levels for the two extreme cyclones studied here: Phailin (2013) and Sidr (2007). The wave setup turns out to be small compared to the wind-driven surge, although it still plays a significant role for inland flooding. Relatively large tide-surge interactions mainly due to shallow water effects are also evidenced by the model. These findings plead in favor of further efforts to improve the representation of the bathymetry, especially in the nearshore area, and the implementation of models including tides and radiation stresses explicitly. The main limit of the model is its inability to predict the detailed patterns of coastal flooding satisfactorily. The reason lies mainly in the fact that topographic data also need to be further improved. In particular, a good knowledge of embankments characteristics (crest elevation and their condition) is found to be of primary importance to represent inland flooding correctly. Public authorities should take urgent action to ensure that better data are available to the scientific community, so that state-of-the-art storm surge models reaching a sufficiently high level of confidence can be used for emergency preparedness and to implement mitigation strategies in the northern Bay of Bengal.

  2. The long-term salinity field in San Francisco Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uncles, R.J.; Peterson, D.H.

    1996-01-01

    Data are presented on long-term salinity behaviour in San Francisco Bay, California. A two-level, width averaged model of the tidally averaged salinity and circulation has been written in order to interpret the long-term (days to decades) salinity variability. The model has been used to simulate daily averaged salinity in the upper and lower levels of a 51 segment discretization of the Bay over the 22-yr period 1967-1988. Monthly averaged surface salinity from observations and monthly-averaged simulated salinity are in reasonable agreement. Good agreement is obtained from comparison with daily averaged salinity measured in the upper reaches of North Bay. The salinity variability is driven primarily by freshwater inflow with relatively minor oceanic influence. All stations exhibit a marked seasonal cycle in accordance with the Mediterranean climate, as well as a rich spectrum of variability due to extreme inflow events and extended periods of drought. Monthly averaged salinity intrusion positions have a pronounced seasonal variability and show an approximately linear response to the logarithm of monthly averaged Delta inflow. Although few observed data are available for studies of long-term salinity stratification, modelled stratification is found to be strongly dependent on freshwater inflow; the nature of that dependence varies throughout the Bay. Near the Golden Gate, stratification tends to increase up to very high inflows. In the central reaches of North Bay, modelled stratification maximizes as a function of inflow and further inflow reduces stratification. Near the head of North Bay, lowest summer inflows are associated with the greatest modelled stratification. Observations from the central reaches of North Bay show marked spring-neap variations in stratification and gravitational circulation, both being stronger at neap tides. This spring-neap variation is simulated by the model. A feature of the modelled stratification is a hysteresis in which, for a given

  3. Children's Conceptions of Mental Illness: A Naive Theory Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Claudine; Buchanan-Barrow, Eithne; Barrett, Martyn

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports two studies that investigated children's conceptions of mental illness using a naive theory approach, drawing upon a conceptual framework for analysing illness representations which distinguishes between the identity, causes, consequences, curability, and timeline of an illness. The studies utilized semi-structured interviewing…

  4. Modeling the climatic and subsurface stratigraphy controls on the hydrology of a Carolina bay wetland in South Carolina, USA

    Treesearch

    Ge Sun; Timothy J. Callahan; Jennifer E. Pyzoha; Carl C. Trettin

    2006-01-01

    Restoring depressional wetlands or geographically isolated wetlands such as cypress swamps and Carolina bays on the Atlantic Coastal Plains requires a clear understanding of the hydrologic processes and water balances. The objectives of this paper are to (1) test a distributed forest hydrology model, FLATWOODS, for a Carolina bay wetland system using seven years of...

  5. Modeling the climatic and subsurface stratigraphy controls on the hydrology of a Carolina Bay wetland in South Carolina, USA

    Treesearch

    Ge Sun; Timothy J. Callahan; Jennifer E. Pyzoha; Carl C. Trettin

    2006-01-01

    Restoring depressional wetlands or geographically isolated wetlands such as cypress swamps and Carolina bays on the Atlantic Coastal Plains requires a clear understanding of the hydrologic processes and water balances. The objectives of this paper are to (1) test a distributed forest hydrology model, FLATWOODS, for a Carolina bay wetland system using seven years of...

  6. A variational Bayes spatiotemporal model for electromagnetic brain mapping.

    PubMed

    Nathoo, F S; Babul, A; Moiseev, A; Virji-Babul, N; Beg, M F

    2014-03-01

    In this article, we present a new variational Bayes approach for solving the neuroelectromagnetic inverse problem arising in studies involving electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG). This high-dimensional spatiotemporal estimation problem involves the recovery of time-varying neural activity at a large number of locations within the brain, from electromagnetic signals recorded at a relatively small number of external locations on or near the scalp. Framing this problem within the context of spatial variable selection for an underdetermined functional linear model, we propose a spatial mixture formulation where the profile of electrical activity within the brain is represented through location-specific spike-and-slab priors based on a spatial logistic specification. The prior specification accommodates spatial clustering in brain activation, while also allowing for the inclusion of auxiliary information derived from alternative imaging modalities, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We develop a variational Bayes approach for computing estimates of neural source activity, and incorporate a nonparametric bootstrap for interval estimation. The proposed methodology is compared with several alternative approaches through simulation studies, and is applied to the analysis of a multimodal neuroimaging study examining the neural response to face perception using EEG, MEG, and fMRI. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Modeling Trace Element Concentrations in the San Francisco Bay Estuary from Remote Measurement of Suspended Solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Press, J.; Broughton, J.; Kudela, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Suspended and dissolved trace elements are key determinants of water quality in estuarine and coastal waters. High concentrations of trace element pollutants in the San Francisco Bay estuary necessitate consistent and thorough monitoring to mitigate adverse effects on biological systems and the contamination of water and food resources. Although existing monitoring programs collect annual in situ samples from fixed locations, models proposed by Benoit, Kudela, & Flegal (2010) enable calculation of the water column total concentration (WCT) and the water column dissolved concentration (WCD) of 14 trace elements in the San Francisco Bay from a more frequently sampled metric—suspended solids concentration (SSC). This study tests the application of these models with SSC calculated from remote sensing data, with the aim of validating a tool for continuous synoptic monitoring of trace elements in the San Francisco Bay. Using HICO imagery, semi-analytical and empirical SSC algorithms were tested against a USGS dataset. A single-band method with statistically significant linear fit (p < 0.001) was chosen as the proxy for SSC values. The numerical models for WCT and the distribution ratio D were applied in MATLAB with terms to account for regional and seasonal effects, and results were used to calculate WCD. The modeled results were assessed against in situ data from the San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program. Quantile regression was used to evaluate model sensitivity to the distribution of regions, and outliers displaying regional aberrations were removed before robust regression was applied. Statistically significant and highly correlated results for WCT were found for 10 elements, with goodness of fit greater than or equal to that of the original models of seven elements. WCD was successfully modeled for six elements, with goodness of fit for each exceeding that of the original models. Concentrations of Arsenic, Iron, and Lead in the southern region of the

  8. Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estes, Maurice G.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammed; Thom, Ron; Quattrochi, Dale; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellism Jean; Watson, Brian; Rodriguez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2009-01-01

    There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic

  9. Highly efficient gene transfer in naive human T cells with a murine leukemia virus-based vector.

    PubMed

    Dardalhon, V; Jaleco, S; Rebouissou, C; Ferrand, C; Skander, N; Swainson, L; Tiberghien, P; Spits, H; Noraz, N; Taylor, N

    2000-08-01

    Retroviral vectors based on the Moloney murine leukemia virus (MuLV) have become the primary tool for gene delivery into hematopoietic cells, but clinical trials have been hampered by low transduction efficiencies. Recently, we and others have shown that gene transfer of MuLV-based vectors into T cells can be significantly augmented using a fibronectin-facilitated protocol. Nevertheless, the relative abilities of naive (CD45RA(+)) and memory (CD45RO(+)) lymphocyte subsets to be transduced has not been assessed. Although naive T cells demonstrate a restricted cytokine profile following antigen stimulation and a decreased susceptibility to infection with human immunodeficiency virus, it was not clear whether they could be efficiently infected with a MuLV vector. This study describes conditions that permitted gene transfer of an enhanced green fluorescent protein-expressing retroviral vector in more than 50% of naive umbilical cord (UC) blood and peripheral blood (PB) T cells following CD3/CD28 ligation. Moreover, treatment of naive T cells with interleukin-7 resulted in the maintenance of a CD45RA phenotype and gene transfer levels approached 20%. Finally, it was determined that parameters for optimal transduction of CD45RA(+) T cells isolated from PB and UC blood differed: transduction of the UC cells was significantly increased by the presence of autologous mononuclear cells (24.5% versus 56.5%). Because naive T cells harbor a receptor repertoire that allows them to respond to novel antigens, the development of protocols targeting their transduction is crucial for gene therapy applications. This approach will also allow the functions of exogenous genes to be evaluated in primary nontransformed naive T cells.

  10. Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    35805 3 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1529 W. Sequim Bay Rd. Sequim , WA 98382 4 University of South Carolina Columbia, SC 5 Tetra...Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay ...land use change. Mobile Bay , AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and

  11. Naive vs. Sophisticated Methods of Forecasting Public Library Circulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, Terrence A.

    1984-01-01

    Two sophisticated--autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), straight-line regression--and two naive--simple average, monthly average--forecasting techniques were used to forecast monthly circulation totals of 34 public libraries. Comparisons of forecasts and actual totals revealed that ARIMA and monthly average methods had smallest mean…

  12. Details: Elevation of Plate Typical Bay, SectionThrough Plate Typical Bay, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Details: Elevation of Plate Typical Bay, Section-Through Plate Typical Bay, Section-Through Plate Center Bay, Elevation of Plate Center Bay - Contoocook Covered Bridge, Spanning Contoocook River, Hopkinton, Merrimack County, NH

  13. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  14. BayesPI-BAR: a new biophysical model for characterization of regulatory sequence variations

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Junbai; Batmanov, Kirill

    2015-01-01

    Sequence variations in regulatory DNA regions are known to cause functionally important consequences for gene expression. DNA sequence variations may have an essential role in determining phenotypes and may be linked to disease; however, their identification through analysis of massive genome-wide sequencing data is a great challenge. In this work, a new computational pipeline, a Bayesian method for protein–DNA interaction with binding affinity ranking (BayesPI-BAR), is proposed for quantifying the effect of sequence variations on protein binding. BayesPI-BAR uses biophysical modeling of protein–DNA interactions to predict single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that cause significant changes in the binding affinity of a regulatory region for transcription factors (TFs). The method includes two new parameters (TF chemical potentials or protein concentrations and direct TF binding targets) that are neglected by previous methods. The new method is verified on 67 known human regulatory SNPs, of which 47 (70%) have predicted true TFs ranked in the top 10. Importantly, the performance of BayesPI-BAR, which uses principal component analysis to integrate multiple predictions from various TF chemical potentials, is found to be better than that of existing programs, such as sTRAP and is-rSNP, when evaluated on the same SNPs. BayesPI-BAR is a publicly available tool and is able to carry out parallelized computation, which helps to investigate a large number of TFs or SNPs and to detect disease-associated regulatory sequence variations in the sea of genome-wide noncoding regions. PMID:26202972

  15. 33 CFR 80.1114 - San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA. 80... INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION RULES COLREGS DEMARCATION LINES Pacific Coast § 80.1114 San Pedro Bay—Anaheim Bay, CA. (a) A line drawn across the seaward extremities of the Anaheim Bay Entrance Jetties; thence to Long...

  16. 33 CFR 80.1114 - San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA. 80... INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION RULES COLREGS DEMARCATION LINES Pacific Coast § 80.1114 San Pedro Bay—Anaheim Bay, CA. (a) A line drawn across the seaward extremities of the Anaheim Bay Entrance Jetties; thence to Long...

  17. 33 CFR 80.1114 - San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA. 80... INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION RULES COLREGS DEMARCATION LINES Pacific Coast § 80.1114 San Pedro Bay—Anaheim Bay, CA. (a) A line drawn across the seaward extremities of the Anaheim Bay Entrance Jetties; thence to Long...

  18. 33 CFR 80.1114 - San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA. 80... INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION RULES COLREGS DEMARCATION LINES Pacific Coast § 80.1114 San Pedro Bay—Anaheim Bay, CA. (a) A line drawn across the seaward extremities of the Anaheim Bay Entrance Jetties; thence to Long...

  19. 33 CFR 80.1114 - San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false San Pedro Bay-Anaheim Bay, CA. 80... INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION RULES COLREGS DEMARCATION LINES Pacific Coast § 80.1114 San Pedro Bay—Anaheim Bay, CA. (a) A line drawn across the seaward extremities of the Anaheim Bay Entrance Jetties; thence to Long...

  20. 33 CFR 100.911 - Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. 100.911 Section 100.911 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.911 Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. (a...

  1. 33 CFR 100.911 - Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. 100.911 Section 100.911 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.911 Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. (a...

  2. 33 CFR 100.911 - Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. 100.911 Section 100.911 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.911 Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. (a...

  3. 33 CFR 100.911 - Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. 100.911 Section 100.911 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.911 Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. (a...

  4. 33 CFR 100.911 - Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. 100.911 Section 100.911 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.911 Bay City Airshow, Bay City, MI. (a...

  5. Modeling the marine magnetic field of Bahía de Banderas, Mexico, confirms the half-graben structure of the bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez, Román; López-Loera, Héctor; Arzate, Jorge

    2010-06-01

    An existing aeromagnetic survey flown on the central, western portion of Mexico did not include an important tectonic structure: Bahía de Banderas. The bay has an extension of approximately 1400 km 2 and is located within the Puerto Vallarta batholith, a granitic structure of Cretaceous origin. We report here the additional gathering of 5523 magnetic values on the bay, in order to complement the existing land aeromagnetic information; this allowed modeling the structure of the bay from the magnetic viewpoint. A late Miocene age has been proposed for the bay making it roughly contemporaneous with the first stages of separation of Baja California from mainland Mexico. Initially proposed as a graben, it was subsequently shown that its structure actually corresponds to a half-graben of the fault growth type, with reverse drag geometry; it appears to have been developed in response to an extensional process in the ˜ N-S direction. Valle de Banderas neighbors the bay constituting its eastern land continuation; it has also been proposed as a graben and it is also likely the result of an extensional process. However, it seems to be a structure more recently formed, probably around 5 Ma. The different time origin of the bay and of the valley is strengthened by the different alignment of the valley axis, where Ameca River flows and discharges into the bay, of around 30° from the trace of Banderas fault. The magnetic responses of the valley, aeromagnetic and terrestrial, support the existence of an extensional process. Upward and downward continuations of the magnetic fields show that Sierra de Vallejo and Sierra de Zapotán, to the NW of the valley, are deeply rooted structures and their magnetic responses are similar to those obtained in the Puerto Vallarta batholith; these characteristics support a common origin for them. Three magnetic profiles trending NNW are modeled across Bahía de Banderas. The models identify the structure as a half-graben with a listric main

  6. Modeling Diel Oxygen Dynamics and Ecosystem Metabolism in Weeks Bay, Alabama.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Weeks Bay is a shallow eutrophic estuary that exhibits frequent summertime diel-cycling hypoxia and periods of dissolved oxygen (DO) oversaturation during the day. Diel DO dynamics in shallow estuaries like Weeks Bay are complex, and may be influenced by wind forcing, vertical an...

  7. An Analysis of Document Category Prediction Responses to Classifier Model Parameter Treatment Permutations within the Software Design Patterns Subject Domain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pankau, Brian L.

    2009-01-01

    This empirical study evaluates the document category prediction effectiveness of Naive Bayes (NB) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classifier treatments built from different feature selection and machine learning settings and trained and tested against textual corpora of 2300 Gang-Of-Four (GOF) design pattern documents. Analysis of the experiment's…

  8. Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

    2017-08-01

    Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

  9. Higher Surface Ozone Concentrations Over the Chesapeake Bay than Over the Adjacent Land: Observations and Models from the DISCOVER-AQ and CBODAQ Campaigns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldberg, Daniel L.; Loughner, Christopher P.; Tzortziou, Maria; Stehr, Jeffrey W.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Marufu, Lackson T.; Dickerson, Russell R.

    2013-01-01

    Air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, indicate decidedly higher ozone near the surface of large interior water bodies, such as the Great Lakes and Chesapeake Bay. In order to test the validity of the model output, we performed surface measurements of ozone (O3) and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) on the 26-m Delaware II NOAA Small Research Vessel experimental (SRVx), deployed in the Chesapeake Bay for 10 daytime cruises in July 2011 as part of NASA's GEO-CAPE CBODAQ oceanographic field campaign in conjunction with NASA's DISCOVER-AQ air quality field campaign. During this 10-day period, the EPA O3 regulatory standard of 75 ppbv averaged over an 8-h period was exceeded four times over water while ground stations in the area only exceeded the standard at most twice. This suggests that on days when the Baltimore/Washington region is in compliance with the EPA standard, air quality over the Chesapeake Bay might exceed the EPA standard. Ozone observations over the bay during the afternoon were consistently 10-20% higher than the closest upwind ground sites during the 10-day campaign; this pattern persisted during good and poor air quality days. A lower boundary layer, reduced cloud cover, slower dry deposition rates, and other lesser mechanisms, contribute to the local maximum of ozone over the Chesapeake Bay. Observations from this campaign were compared to a CMAQ simulation at 1.33 km resolution. The model is able to predict the regional maximum of ozone over the Chesapeake Bay accurately, but NOy concentrations are significantly overestimated. Explanations for the overestimation of NOy in the model simulations are also explored

  10. Higher surface ozone concentrations over the Chesapeake Bay than over the adjacent land: Observations and models from the DISCOVER-AQ and CBODAQ campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Daniel L.; Loughner, Christopher P.; Tzortziou, Maria; Stehr, Jeffrey W.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Marufu, Lackson T.; Dickerson, Russell R.

    2014-02-01

    Air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, indicate decidedly higher ozone near the surface of large interior water bodies, such as the Great Lakes and Chesapeake Bay. In order to test the validity of the model output, we performed surface measurements of ozone (O3) and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) on the 26-m Delaware II NOAA Small Research Vessel experimental (SRVx), deployed in the Chesapeake Bay for 10 daytime cruises in July 2011 as part of NASA's GEO-CAPE CBODAQ oceanographic field campaign in conjunction with NASA's DISCOVER-AQ air quality field campaign. During this 10-day period, the EPA O3 regulatory standard of 75 ppbv averaged over an 8-h period was exceeded four times over water while ground stations in the area only exceeded the standard at most twice. This suggests that on days when the Baltimore/Washington region is in compliance with the EPA standard, air quality over the Chesapeake Bay might exceed the EPA standard. Ozone observations over the bay during the afternoon were consistently 10-20% higher than the closest upwind ground sites during the 10-day campaign; this pattern persisted during good and poor air quality days. A lower boundary layer, reduced cloud cover, slower dry deposition rates, and other lesser mechanisms, contribute to the local maximum of ozone over the Chesapeake Bay. Observations from this campaign were compared to a CMAQ simulation at 1.33 km resolution. The model is able to predict the regional maximum of ozone over the Chesapeake Bay accurately, but NOy concentrations are significantly overestimated. Explanations for the overestimation of NOy in the model simulations are also explored.

  11. Producing a satellite-derived map and modelling Spartina alterniflora expansion for Willapa Bay in Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berlin, Cynthia Jane

    1998-12-01

    This research addresses the identification of the areal extent of the intertidal wetlands of Willapa Bay, Washington, and the evaluation of the potential for exotic Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) expansion in the bay using a spatial geographic approach. It is hoped that the results will address not only the management needs of the study area but provide a research design that may be applied to studies of other coastal wetlands. Four satellite images, three Landsat Multi-Spectral (MSS) and one Thematic Mapper (TM), are used to derive a map showing areas of water, low, middle and high intertidal, and upland. Two multi-date remote sensing mapping techniques are assessed: a supervised classification using density-slicing and an unsupervised classification using an ISODATA algorithm. Statistical comparisons are made between the resultant derived maps and the U.S.G.S. topographic maps for the Willapa Bay area. The potential for Spartina expansion in the bay is assessed using a sigmoidal (logistic) growth model and a spatial modelling procedure for four possible growth scenarios: without management controls (Business-as-Usual), with moderate management controls (e.g. harvesting to eliminate seed setting), under a hypothetical increase in the growth rate that may reflect favorable environmental changes, and under a hypothetical decrease in the growth rate that may reflect aggressive management controls. Comparisons for the statistics of the two mapping techniques suggest that although the unsupervised classification method performed satisfactorily, the supervised classification (density-slicing) method provided more satisfactory results. Results from the modelling of potential Spartina expansion suggest that Spartina expansion will proceed rapidly for the Business-as-Usual and hypothetical increase in the growth rate scenario, and at a slower rate for the elimination of seed setting and hypothetical decrease in the growth rate scenarios, until all potential

  12. Water resources planning for rivers draining into Mobile Bay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    April, G. C.

    1976-01-01

    The application of remote sensing, automatic data processing, modeling and other aerospace related technologies to hydrological engineering and water resource management are discussed for the entire river drainage system which feeds the Mobile Bay estuary. The adaptation and implementation of existing mathematical modeling methods are investigated for the purpose of describing the behavior of Mobile Bay. Of particular importance are the interactions that system variables such as river flow rate, wind direction and speed, and tidal state have on the water movement and quality within the bay system.

  13. Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

    PubMed Central

    Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

  14. Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

    2016-03-01

    This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Geomorphologic Modeling of a Macro-Tidal Embayment With Extensive Tidal Flats: Skagit Bay, WA

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    Tidal Flats: Skagit Bay , WA Lyle Hibler Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1529 West Sequim Bay Road Sequim , WA 98382 phone: (360) 681...3616 fax: (360) 681-3681 email: lyle.hibler@pnl.gov Adam Maxwell Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1529 West Sequim Bay Road Sequim , WA... Sequim Bay Road, Sequim ,WA,98382 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR

  16. Geomorphologic Modeling of a Macro-tidal Embayment with Extensive Tidal Flats: Skagit Bay, WA

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    Bay , WA Lyle Hibler Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1529 West Sequim Bay Road Sequim , WA 98382 phone: (360) 681-3616 fax: (360)681-3681...email: lyle.hibler@pnl.gov Adam Maxwell Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1529 West Sequim Bay Road Sequim , WA 98382 phone: (360) 681... Sequim Bay Road, Sequim ,WA,98382 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10.

  17. Telomerase Is Involved in IL-7-Mediated Differential Survival of Naive and Memory CD4+ T Cells1

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yinhua; An, Jie; Weng, Nan-ping

    2008-01-01

    IL-7 plays an essential role in T cell maintenance and survival. The survival effect of IL-7 is thought to be mediated through regulation of Bcl2 family proteins. After a comparative analysis of IL-7-induced growth and cell death of human naive and memory CD4+ T cells, we observed that more memory CD4+ T cells underwent cell division and proceeded to apoptosis than naive cells in response to IL-7. However, IL-7-induced expressions of Bcl2 family members (Bcl2, Bcl-xL, Bax, and Bad) were similar between naive and memory cells. Instead, we found that IL-7 induced higher levels of telomerase activity in naive cells than in memory cells, and the levels of IL-7-induced telomerase activity had a significant inverse correlation with cell death in CD4+ T cells. Furthermore, we showed that reducing expression of telomerase reverse transcriptase and telomerase activity significantly increased cell death of IL-7-cultured CD4+ T cells. Together, these findings demonstrate that telomerase is involved in IL-7-mediated differential survival of naive and memory CD4+ T cells. PMID:18322183

  18. Numerical Simulation of Regional Circulation in the Monterey Bay Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tseng, Y. H.; Dietrich, D. E.; Ferziger, J. H.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this study is to produce a high-resolution numerical model of Mon- terey Bay area in which the dynamics are determined by the complex geometry of the coastline, steep bathymetry, and the in uence of the water masses that constitute the CCS. Our goal is to simulate the regional-scale ocean response with realistic dynamics (annual cycle), forcing, and domain. In particular, we focus on non-hydrostatic e ects (by comparing the results of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models) and the role of complex geometry, i.e. the bay and submarine canyon, on the nearshore circulation. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the rst to simulate the regional circulation in the vicinity of Monterey Bay using a non-hydrostatic model. Section 2 introduces the high resolution Monterey Bay area regional model (MBARM). Section 3 provides the results and veri cation with mooring and satellite data. Section 4 compares the results of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models.

  19. Time series models of decadal trends in the harmful algal species Karlodinium veneficum in Chesapeake Bay.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chih-Hsien Michelle; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Glibert, Patricia M

    2018-03-01

    The harmful dinoflagellate, Karlodnium veneficum, has been implicated in fish-kill and other toxic, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in waters worldwide. Blooms of K. veneficum are known to be related to coastal nutrient enrichment but the relationship is complex because this HAB taxon relies not only on dissolved nutrients but also particulate prey, both of which have also changed over time. Here, applying cross-correlations of climate-related physical factors, nutrients and prey, with abundance of K. veneficum over a 10-year (2002-2011) period, a synthesis of the interactive effects of multiple factors on this species was developed for Chesapeake Bay, where blooms of the HAB have been increasing. Significant upward trends in the time series of K. veneficum were observed in the mesohaline stations of the Bay, but not in oligohaline tributary stations. For the mesohaline regions, riverine sources of nutrients with seasonal lags, together with particulate prey with zero lag, explained 15%-46% of the variation in the K. veneficum time series. For the oligohaline regions, nutrients and particulate prey generally showed significant decreasing trends with time, likely a reflection of nutrient reduction efforts. A conceptual model of mid-Bay blooms is presented, in which K. veneficum, derived from the oceanic end member of the Bay, may experience enhanced growth if it encounters prey originating from the tributaries with different patterns of nutrient loading and which are enriched in nitrogen. For all correlation models developed herein, prey abundance was a primary factor in predicting K. veneficum abundance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2018-06-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500-10,000 m3s-1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

  1. Florida Bay salinity and Everglades wetlands hydrology circa 1900 CE: A compilation of paleoecology-based statistical modeling analyses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, F.E.; Wingard, G.L.

    2012-01-01

    The upgraded method of coupled paleosalinity and hydrologic models was applied to the analysis of the circa-1900 CE segments of five estuarine sediment cores collected in Florida Bay. Comparisons of the observed mean stage (water level) data to the paleoecology-based model's averaged output show that the estimated stage in the Everglades wetlands was 0.3 to 1.6 feet higher at different locations. Observed mean flow data compared to the paleoecology-based model output show an estimated flow into Shark River Slough at Tamiami Trail of 401 to 2,539 cubic feet per second (cfs) higher than existing flows, and at Taylor Slough Bridge an estimated flow of 48 to 218 cfs above existing flows. For salinity in Florida Bay, the difference between paleoecology-based and observed mean salinity varies across the bay, from an aggregated average salinity of 14.7 less than existing in the northeastern basin to 1.0 less than existing in the western basin near the transition into the Gulf of Mexico. When the salinity differences are compared by region, the difference between paleoecology-based conditions and existing conditions are spatially consistent.

  2. Flow and nutrient dynamics in a subterranean estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA, USA): Field data and reactive transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiteri, Claudette; Slomp, Caroline P.; Charette, Matthew A.; Tuncay, Kagan; Meile, Christof

    2008-07-01

    A two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model is used to investigate the controls on nutrient ( NO3-, NH4+, PO 4) dynamics in a coastal aquifer. The model couples density-dependent flow to a reaction network which includes oxic degradation of organic matter, denitrification, iron oxide reduction, nitrification, Fe 2+ oxidation and sorption of PO 4 onto iron oxides. Porewater measurements from a well transect at Waquoit Bay, MA, USA indicate the presence of a reducing plume with high Fe 2+, NH4+, DOC (dissolved organic carbon) and PO 4 concentrations overlying a more oxidizing NO3--rich plume. These two plumes travel nearly conservatively until they start to overlap in the intertidal coastal sediments prior to discharge into the bay. In this zone, the aeration of the surface beach sediments drives nitrification and allows the precipitation of iron oxide, which leads to the removal of PO 4 through sorption. Model simulations suggest that removal of NO3- through denitrification is inhibited by the limited overlap between the two freshwater plumes, as well as by the refractory nature of terrestrial DOC. Submarine groundwater discharge is a significant source of NO3- to the bay.

  3. Development of novel prediction model for drug-induced mitochondrial toxicity by using naïve Bayes classifier method.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Yu, Peng; Ren, Ji-Xia; Li, Xi-Bo; Wang, He-Li; Ding, Lan; Kong, Wei-Bao

    2017-12-01

    Mitochondrial dysfunction has been considered as an important contributing factor in the etiology of drug-induced organ toxicity, and even plays an important role in the pathogenesis of some diseases. The objective of this investigation was to develop a novel prediction model of drug-induced mitochondrial toxicity by using a naïve Bayes classifier. For comparison, the recursive partitioning classifier prediction model was also constructed. Among these methods, the prediction performance of naïve Bayes classifier established here showed best, which yielded average overall prediction accuracies for the internal 5-fold cross validation of the training set and external test set were 95 ± 0.6% and 81 ± 1.1%, respectively. In addition, four important molecular descriptors and some representative substructures of toxicants produced by ECFP_6 fingerprints were identified. We hope the established naïve Bayes prediction model can be employed for the mitochondrial toxicity assessment, and these obtained important information of mitochondrial toxicants can provide guidance for medicinal chemists working in drug discovery and lead optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Numerical study of water residence time in the Yueqing Bay based on the eulerian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ying, Chao; Li, Xinwen; Liu, Yong; Yao, Wenwei; Li, Ruijie

    2018-05-01

    The Yueqing Bay was a semi-enclosed bay located in the southeast of Zhejiang Province, China. Due to substantial anthropogenic influences since 1964, the water quality in the bay had deteriorated seriously. Thus urgent measures should be taken to protect the water body. In this study, a numerical model was calibrated for water surface elevation and tidal current from August 14 to August 26, 2011. Comparisons of observed and simulated data showed that the model reproduced the tidal range and phase and the variations of current at different periods fairly well. The calibrated model was then applied to investigate spatial flushing pattern of the bay by calculation of residence time. The results obtained from a series of model experiments demonstrated that the residence time increased from 10 day at the bay mouth to more than 70 day at the upper bay. The average residence time over the whole bay was 49.5 day. In addition, the adaptation of flushing homogeneity curve showed that the residence time in the bay varied smoothly. This study provides a numerical tool to quantify the transport timescale in Yueqing Bay and supports adaptive management of the bay by local authorities.

  5. Diagnosis of combined faults in Rotary Machinery by Non-Naive Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asr, Mahsa Yazdanian; Ettefagh, Mir Mohammad; Hassannejad, Reza; Razavi, Seyed Naser

    2017-02-01

    When combined faults happen in different parts of the rotating machines, their features are profoundly dependent. Experts are completely familiar with individuals faults characteristics and enough data are available from single faults but the problem arises, when the faults combined and the separation of characteristics becomes complex. Therefore, the experts cannot declare exact information about the symptoms of combined fault and its quality. In this paper to overcome this drawback, a novel method is proposed. The core idea of the method is about declaring combined fault without using combined fault features as training data set and just individual fault features are applied in training step. For this purpose, after data acquisition and resampling the obtained vibration signals, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is utilized to decompose multi component signals to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). With the use of correlation coefficient, proper IMFs for feature extraction are selected. In feature extraction step, Shannon energy entropy of IMFs was extracted as well as statistical features. It is obvious that most of extracted features are strongly dependent. To consider this matter, Non-Naive Bayesian Classifier (NNBC) is appointed, which release the fundamental assumption of Naive Bayesian, i.e., the independence among features. To demonstrate the superiority of NNBC, other counterpart methods, include Normal Naive Bayesian classifier, Kernel Naive Bayesian classifier and Back Propagation Neural Networks were applied and the classification results are compared. An experimental vibration signals, collected from automobile gearbox, were used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. During the classification process, only the features, related individually to healthy state, bearing failure and gear failures, were assigned for training the classifier. But, combined fault features (combined gear and bearing failures) were examined as test data. The achieved

  6. Modeling the fate of p,p'-DDT in water and sediment of two typical estuarine bays in South China: Importance of fishing vessels' inputs.

    PubMed

    Fang, Shu-Ming; Zhang, Xianming; Bao, Lian-Jun; Zeng, Eddy Y

    2016-05-01

    Antifouling paint applied to fishing vessels is the primary source of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) to the coastal marine environments of China. With the aim to provide science-based support of potential regulations on DDT use in antifouling paint, we utilized a fugacity-based model to evaluate the fate and impact of p,p'-DDT, the dominant component of DDT mixture, in Daya Bay and Hailing Bay, two typical estuarine bays in South China. The emissions of p,p'-DDT from fishing vessels to the aquatic environments of Hailing Bay and Daya Bay were estimated as 9.3 and 7.7 kg yr(-1), respectively. Uncertainty analysis indicated that the temporal variability of p,p'-DDT was well described by the model if fishing vessels were considered as the only direct source, i.e., fishing vessels should be the dominant source of p,p'-DDT in coastal bay areas of China. Estimated hazard quotients indicated that sediment in Hailing Bay posed high risk to the aquatic system, and it would take at least 21 years to reduce the hazards to a safe level. Moreover, p,p'-DDT tends to migrate from water to sediment in the entire Hailing Bay and Daya Bay. On the other hand, our previous research indicated that p,p'-DDT was more likely to migrate from sediment to water in the maricultured zones located in shallow waters of these two bays, where fishing vessels frequently remain. These findings suggest that relocating mariculture zones to deeper waters would reduce the likelihood of farmed fish contamination by p,p'-DDT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Hierarchical Bayes approach for subgroup analysis.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Yu-Yi; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram C

    2017-01-01

    In clinical data analysis, both treatment effect estimation and consistency assessment are important for a better understanding of the drug efficacy for the benefit of subjects in individual subgroups. The linear mixed-effects model has been used for subgroup analysis to describe treatment differences among subgroups with great flexibility. The hierarchical Bayes approach has been applied to linear mixed-effects model to derive the posterior distributions of overall and subgroup treatment effects. In this article, we discuss the prior selection for variance components in hierarchical Bayes, estimation and decision making of the overall treatment effect, as well as consistency assessment of the treatment effects across the subgroups based on the posterior predictive p-value. Decision procedures are suggested using either the posterior probability or the Bayes factor. These decision procedures and their properties are illustrated using a simulated example with normally distributed response and repeated measurements.

  8. 33 CFR 165.1182 - Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ..., Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. (a) Regulated area. The following area is established as a moving... Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. 165.1182 Section 165.1182 Navigation and... vessels transit from a line drawn between San Francisco Main Ship Channel buoys 7 and 8 (LLNR 4190 & 4195...

  9. 33 CFR 165.1182 - Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ..., Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. (a) Regulated area. The following area is established as a moving... Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. 165.1182 Section 165.1182 Navigation and... vessels transit from a line drawn between San Francisco Main Ship Channel buoys 7 and 8 (LLNR 4190 & 4195...

  10. 33 CFR 165.1182 - Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ..., Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. (a) Regulated area. The following area is established as a moving... Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. 165.1182 Section 165.1182 Navigation and... vessels transit from a line drawn between San Francisco Main Ship Channel buoys 7 and 8 (LLNR 4190 & 4195...

  11. 33 CFR 165.1182 - Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. (a) Regulated area. The following area is established as a moving... Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. 165.1182 Section 165.1182 Navigation and... vessels transit from a line drawn between San Francisco Main Ship Channel buoys 7 and 8 (LLNR 4190 & 4195...

  12. 33 CFR 165.1182 - Safety/Security Zone: San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ..., Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. (a) Regulated area. The following area is established as a moving... Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, and Suisun Bay, CA. 165.1182 Section 165.1182 Navigation and... vessels transit from a line drawn between San Francisco Main Ship Channel buoys 7 and 8 (LLNR 4190 & 4195...

  13. Ensemble of Chaotic and Naive Approaches for Performance Enhancement in Video Encryption.

    PubMed

    Chandrasekaran, Jeyamala; Thiruvengadam, S J

    2015-01-01

    Owing to the growth of high performance network technologies, multimedia applications over the Internet are increasing exponentially. Applications like video conferencing, video-on-demand, and pay-per-view depend upon encryption algorithms for providing confidentiality. Video communication is characterized by distinct features such as large volume, high redundancy between adjacent frames, video codec compliance, syntax compliance, and application specific requirements. Naive approaches for video encryption encrypt the entire video stream with conventional text based cryptographic algorithms. Although naive approaches are the most secure for video encryption, the computational cost associated with them is very high. This research work aims at enhancing the speed of naive approaches through chaos based S-box design. Chaotic equations are popularly known for randomness, extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, and ergodicity. The proposed methodology employs two-dimensional discrete Henon map for (i) generation of dynamic and key-dependent S-box that could be integrated with symmetric algorithms like Blowfish and Data Encryption Standard (DES) and (ii) generation of one-time keys for simple substitution ciphers. The proposed design is tested for randomness, nonlinearity, avalanche effect, bit independence criterion, and key sensitivity. Experimental results confirm that chaos based S-box design and key generation significantly reduce the computational cost of video encryption with no compromise in security.

  14. Naive (commonsense) geography and geobrowser usability after ten years of Google Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamerlinck, J. D.

    2016-04-01

    In 1995, the concept of ‘naive geography’ was formally introduced as an area of cognitive geographic information science representing ‘the body of knowledge that people have about the surrounding geographic world’ and reflecting ‘the way people think and reason about geographic space and time, both consciously and subconsciously’. The need to incorporate such commonsense knowledge and reasoning into design of geospatial technologies was identified but faced challenges in formalizing these relationships and processes in software implementation. Ten years later, the Google Earth geobrowser was released, marking the beginning of a new era of open access to, and application of, geographic data and information in society. Fast-forward to today, and the opportunity presents itself to take stock of twenty years of naive geography and a decade of the ubiquitous virtual globe. This paper introduces an ongoing research effort to explore the integration of naive (or commonsense) geography concepts in the Google Earth geobrowser virtual globe and their possible impact on Google Earth's usability, utility, and usefulness. A multi-phase methodology is described, combining usability reviews and usability testing with use-case scenarios involving the U.S.-Canadian Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative. Initial progress on a usability review combining cognitive walkthroughs and heuristics evaluation is presented.

  15. Ensemble of Chaotic and Naive Approaches for Performance Enhancement in Video Encryption

    PubMed Central

    Chandrasekaran, Jeyamala; Thiruvengadam, S. J.

    2015-01-01

    Owing to the growth of high performance network technologies, multimedia applications over the Internet are increasing exponentially. Applications like video conferencing, video-on-demand, and pay-per-view depend upon encryption algorithms for providing confidentiality. Video communication is characterized by distinct features such as large volume, high redundancy between adjacent frames, video codec compliance, syntax compliance, and application specific requirements. Naive approaches for video encryption encrypt the entire video stream with conventional text based cryptographic algorithms. Although naive approaches are the most secure for video encryption, the computational cost associated with them is very high. This research work aims at enhancing the speed of naive approaches through chaos based S-box design. Chaotic equations are popularly known for randomness, extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, and ergodicity. The proposed methodology employs two-dimensional discrete Henon map for (i) generation of dynamic and key-dependent S-box that could be integrated with symmetric algorithms like Blowfish and Data Encryption Standard (DES) and (ii) generation of one-time keys for simple substitution ciphers. The proposed design is tested for randomness, nonlinearity, avalanche effect, bit independence criterion, and key sensitivity. Experimental results confirm that chaos based S-box design and key generation significantly reduce the computational cost of video encryption with no compromise in security. PMID:26550603

  16. Three Naive Questions: Addressed to the Modern Educational Optimism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krstic, Predrag

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to question anew the popular and supposedly self-evident affirmation of education, in its modern incarnation as in its historical notion. The "naive" questions suggest that we have recently taken for granted that education ought to be for the masses, that it ought to be upbringing, and that it is better than ignorance.…

  17. Simulation of ground-water discharge to Biscayne Bay, southeastern Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langevin, Christian David

    2001-01-01

    As part of the Place-Based Studies Program, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a project in 1996, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, to quantify the rates and patterns of submarine ground-water discharge to Biscayne Bay. Project objectives were achieved through field investigations at three sites (Coconut Grove, Deering Estate, and Mowry Canal) along the coastline of Biscayne Bay and through the development and calibration of variable-density, ground-water flow models. Two-dimensional, vertical cross-sectional models were developed for steady-state conditions for the Coconut Grove and Deering Estate transects to quantify local-scale ground-water discharge patterns to Biscayne Bay. A larger regional-scale model was developed in three dimensions to simulate submarine ground-water discharge to the entire bay. The SEAWAT code, which is a combined version of MODFLOW and MT3D, was used to simulate the complex variable-density flow patterns. Field data suggest that ground-water discharge to Biscayne Bay relative to the shoreline is restricted to within 300 meters at Coconut Grove, 600 to 1,000 meters at Deering Estate, and 100 meters at Mowry Canal. The vertical cross-sectional models, which were calibrated to the field data using the assumption of steady state, tend to focus ground-water discharge to within 50 to 200 meters of the shoreline. With homogeneous distributions for aquifer parameters and a constant-concentration boundary for Biscayne Bay, the numerical models could not reproduce the lower ground-water salinities observed beneath the bay, which suggests that further research may be necessary to improve the accuracy of the numerical simulations. Results from the cross-sectional models, which were able to simulate the approximate position of the saltwater interface, suggest that longitudinal dispersivity ranges between 1 and 10 meters, and transverse dispersivity ranges from 0.1 to 1 meter for the Biscayne aquifer. The three

  18. ECOSYSTEM MODELING IN COBSCOOK BAY, MAINE:A SUMMARY, PERSPECTIVE, AND LOOK FORWARD

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the mid-1990s, an interdisciplinary, multi-institutional team of scientists was assembled to address basic issues concerning biological productivity and the unique co-occurrence of many unusual ecological features in Cobscook Bay, Maine. Cobscook Bay is a geologically complex,...

  19. Multi-Model Validation in the Chesapeake Bay Region in June 2010

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-31

    ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 Public Affairs (Unclassified/ Unlimited Only), Code 7030_4 X no ---~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~-~~-~------------ thor...US Navy at global , regional and coastal scales (Rowley 2008, 2010). The NCOM model in the Chesapeake Bay region for this exercise is configured in...derived from the NRL DBDB2 global bathymetry database. Boundary forcing and initial conditions were extracted from the East Coast NCOM which has a 3-km

  20. Vertical structure of currents in Algeciras Bay (Strait of Gibraltar): implications on oil spill modeling under different typical scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Megías Trujillo, Bárbara; Caballero de Frutos, Isabel; López Comi, Laura; Tejedor Alvarez, Begoña.; Izquierdo González, Alfredo; Gonzales Mejías, Carlos Jose; Alvarez Esteban, Óscar; Mañanes Salinas, Rafael; Comerma, Eric

    2010-05-01

    Algeciras Bay constitutes a physical environment of special characteristics, due to its bathymetric configuration and geographical location, at the eastern boundary of the Strait of Gibraltar. Hence, the Bay is subject to the complex hydrodynamics of the Strait of Gibraltar, characterized by a mesotidal, semidiurnal regime and the high density-stratification of the water column due to the presence of the upper Atlantic and the lower Mediterranean (more salty and cold) water layers. In addition, this environment is affected by powerful Easterly and Westerly winds episodes. The intense maritime traffic of oil tankers sailing across the Strait and inside the Bay, together with the presence of an oil refinery at its northern coast, imply high risks of oil spilling inside these waters, and unfortunately it has constituted a matter of usual occurrence through the last decades. The above paragraph clearly manifests the necessity of a detailed knowledge on the Bay's hydrodynamics, and the related system of currents, for a correct management and contingency planning in case of oil spilling in this environment. In order to evaluate the range of affectation of oil spills in the Bay's waters and coasts, the OILMAP oil spill model was used, the currents fields being provided by the three-dimensional, nonlinear, finite-differences, sigma-coordinates, UCA 3D hydrodynamic model. Numerical simulations were carried out for a grid domain extended from the western Strait boundary to the Alboran Sea, having a horizontal spatial resolution of 500 m and 50 sigma-levels in the vertical dimension. The system was forced by the tidal constituents M2 (main semidiurnal) and Z0 (constant or zero-frequency), considering three different typical wind conditions: Easterlies, Westerlies and calm (no wind). The most remarkable results from the numerical 3D simulations of Algeciras Bay's hydrodynamics were: a) the occurrence of opposite tidal currents between the upper Atlantic and lower Mediterranean

  1. Large-scale sequence and structural comparisons of human naive and antigen-experienced antibody repertoires.

    PubMed

    DeKosky, Brandon J; Lungu, Oana I; Park, Daechan; Johnson, Erik L; Charab, Wissam; Chrysostomou, Constantine; Kuroda, Daisuke; Ellington, Andrew D; Ippolito, Gregory C; Gray, Jeffrey J; Georgiou, George

    2016-05-10

    Elucidating how antigen exposure and selection shape the human antibody repertoire is fundamental to our understanding of B-cell immunity. We sequenced the paired heavy- and light-chain variable regions (VH and VL, respectively) from large populations of single B cells combined with computational modeling of antibody structures to evaluate sequence and structural features of human antibody repertoires at unprecedented depth. Analysis of a dataset comprising 55,000 antibody clusters from CD19(+)CD20(+)CD27(-) IgM-naive B cells, >120,000 antibody clusters from CD19(+)CD20(+)CD27(+) antigen-experienced B cells, and >2,000 RosettaAntibody-predicted structural models across three healthy donors led to a number of key findings: (i) VH and VL gene sequences pair in a combinatorial fashion without detectable pairing restrictions at the population level; (ii) certain VH:VL gene pairs were significantly enriched or depleted in the antigen-experienced repertoire relative to the naive repertoire; (iii) antigen selection increased antibody paratope net charge and solvent-accessible surface area; and (iv) public heavy-chain third complementarity-determining region (CDR-H3) antibodies in the antigen-experienced repertoire showed signs of convergent paired light-chain genetic signatures, including shared light-chain third complementarity-determining region (CDR-L3) amino acid sequences and/or Vκ,λ-Jκ,λ genes. The data reported here address several longstanding questions regarding antibody repertoire selection and development and provide a benchmark for future repertoire-scale analyses of antibody responses to vaccination and disease.

  2. Replacement of tritiated water from irradiated fuel storage bay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Castillo, I.; Boniface, H.; Suppiah, S.

    2015-03-15

    Recently, AECL developed a novel method to reduce tritium emissions (to groundwater) and personnel doses at the NRU (National Research Universal) reactor irradiated fuel storage bay (also known as rod or spent fuel bay) through a water swap process. The light water in the fuel bay had built up tritium that had been transferred from the heavy water moderator through normal fuel transfers. The major advantage of the thermal stratification method was that a very effective tritium reduction could be achieved by swapping a minimal volume of bay water and warm tritiated water would be skimmed off the bay surface.more » A demonstration of the method was done that involved Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the swap process and a test program that showed excellent agreement with model prediction for the effective removal of almost all the tritium with a minimal water volume. Building on the successful demonstration, AECL fabricated, installed, commissioned and operated a full-scale system to perform a water swap. This full-scale water swap operation achieved a tritium removal efficiency of about 96%.« less

  3. Improved method for calibration of exchange flows for a physical transport box model of Tampa Bay, FL USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Results for both sequential and simultaneous calibration of exchange flows between segments of a 10-box, one-dimensional, well-mixed, bifurcated tidal mixing model for Tampa Bay are reported. Calibrations were conducted for three model options with different mathematical expressi...

  4. Flow in water-intake pump bays: A guide for utility engineers. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ettema, R.

    1998-09-01

    This report is intended to serve as a guide for power-plant engineers facing problems with flow conditions in pump bays in water-intake structures, especially those located alongside rivers. The guide briefly introduces the typical prevailing flow field outside of a riverside water intake. That flow field often sets the inflow conditions for pump bays located within the water intake. The monograph then presents and discusses the main flow problems associated with pump bays. The problems usually revolve around the formation of troublesome vortices. A novel feature of this monograph is the use of numerical modeling to reveal diagnostically how themore » vortices form and their sensitivities to flow conditions, such as uniformity of approach flow entering the bay and water-surface elevation relative to pump-bell submergence. The modeling was carried out using a computer code developed specially for the present project. Pump-bay layouts are discussed next. The discussion begins with a summary of the main variables influencing bay flows. The numerical model is used to determine the sensitivities of the vortices to variations in the geometric parameters. The fixes include the use of flow-control vanes and suction scoops for ensuring satisfactory flow performance in severe flow conditions; notably flows with strong cross flow and shallow flows. The monograph ends with descriptions of modeling techniques. An extensive discussion is provided on the use of numerical model for illuminating bay flows. The model is used to show how fluid viscosity affects bay flow. The effect of fluid viscosity is an important consideration in hydraulic modeling of water intakes.« less

  5. Storm-driven sediment transport in Massachusetts Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warner, J.C.; Butman, B.; Dalyander, P.S.

    2008-01-01

    Massachusetts Bay is a semi-enclosed embayment in the western Gulf of Maine about 50 km wide and 100 km long. Bottom sediment resuspension is controlled predominately by storm-induced surface waves and transport by the tidal- and wind-driven circulation. Because the Bay is open to the northeast, winds from the northeast ('Northeasters') generate the largest surface waves and are thus the most effective in resuspending sediments. The three-dimensional oceanographic circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used to explore the resuspension, transport, and deposition of sediment caused by Northeasters. The model transports multiple sediment classes and tracks the evolution of a multilevel sediment bed. The surficial sediment characteristics of the bed are coupled to one of several bottom-boundary layer modules that calculate enhanced bottom roughness due to wave-current interaction. The wave field is calculated from the model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Two idealized simulations were carried out to explore the effects of Northeasters on the transport and fate of sediments. In one simulation, an initially spatially uniform bed of mixed sediments exposed to a series of Northeasters evolved to a pattern similar to the existing surficial sediment distribution. A second set of simulations explored sediment-transport pathways caused by storms with winds from the northeast quadrant by simulating release of sediment at selected locations. Storms with winds from the north cause transport southward along the western shore of Massachusetts Bay, while storms with winds from the east and southeast drive northerly nearshore flow. The simulations show that Northeasters can effectively transport sediments from Boston Harbor and the area offshore of the harbor to the southeast into Cape Cod Bay and offshore into Stellwagen Basin. This transport pattern is consistent with Boston Harbor as the source of silver found in the surficial sediments of Cape Cod Bay and

  6. Regional downscaling of temporal resolution in near-surface wind from statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) for use in San Francisco Bay coastal flood modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P.

    2013-12-01

    While Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) provide daily near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within San Francisco Bay. Using 30 years (1975-2004) of climatological data from four representative stations around San Francisco Bay, a library of example daily wind conditions for four corresponding over-water sub-regions is constructed. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) of station conditions are compared to MACA GFDL hindcasts to create correction factors, which are then applied to 21st century MACA wind projections. For each projection day, a best match example is identified via least squares error among all stations from the library. The best match's daily variation in velocity components (u/v) is used as an analogue of representative wind variation and is applied at 3-hour increments about the corresponding sub-region's projected u/v values. High temporal resolution reconstructions using this methodology on hindcast MACA fields from 1975-2004 accurately recreate extreme wind values within the San Francisco Bay, and because these extremes in wind forcing are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling, this represents a valuable method of generating near-surface wind vectors for use in coastal flood modeling.

  7. Geomorphic Modeling of Macro-Tidal Embayment with Extensive Tidal Flats: Skagit Bay, Washington

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-30

    Geomorphic modeling of macro-tidal embayment with extensive tidal flats: Skagit Bay , Washington Lyle Hibler Battelle-Pacific Northwest Division...Marine Sciences Laboratory Sequim , WA 98382 phone: (360) 681-3616 fax: (360) 681-4559 email: lyle.hibler@pnl.gov Adam Maxwell Battelle-Pacific...Northwest Division Marine Sciences Laboratory Sequim , WA 98382 phone: (360) 681-4591 fax: (360) 681-4559 email: adam.maxwell@pnl.gov Award

  8. Left-Turn Bays

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1996-05-01

    The topic of left-turn bays (left-turn lanes) involves the following three issues: 1.) Warrants; 2.) Bay Length and 3.) Design Details. This discussion paper deals with warrants and bay length -- including queue storage at signalized and unsignalized...

  9. Mobile Bay turbidity study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crozier, G. F.; Schroeder, W. W.

    1978-01-01

    The termination of studies carried on for almost three years in the Mobile Bay area and adjacent continental shelf are reported. The initial results concentrating on the shelf and lower bay were presented in the interim report. The continued scope of work was designed to attempt a refinement of the mathematical model, assess the effectiveness of optical measurement of suspended particulate material and disseminate the acquired information. The optical characteristics of particulate solutions are affected by density gradients within the medium, density of the suspended particles, particle size, particle shape, particle quality, albedo, and the angle of refracted light. Several of these are discussed in detail.

  10. 33 CFR 100.919 - International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. 100.919 Section 100.919 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF... Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. (a) Regulated Area. A regulated area is established to include all...

  11. 33 CFR 100.919 - International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false International Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. 100.919 Section 100.919 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF... Bay City River Roar, Bay City, MI. (a) Regulated Area. A regulated area is established to include all...

  12. South San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dartnell, Peter; Gibbons, Helen

    2007-01-01

    View eastward. Elevations in mapped area color coded: purple (approx 15 m below sea level) to red-orange (approx 90 m above sea level). South San Francisco Bay is very shallow, with a mean water depth of 2.7 m (8.9 ft). Trapezoidal depression near San Mateo Bridge is where sediment has been extracted for use in cement production and as bay fill. Land from USGS digital orthophotographs (DOQs) overlaid on USGS digital elevation models (DEMs). Distance across bottom of image approx 11 km (7 mi); vertical exaggeration 1.5X.

  13. Spatial variation in sediment-water exchange of phosphorus in Florida Bay: AMP as a model organic compound.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiao-Lan; Zhang, Jia-Zhong

    2010-10-15

    Dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) has been recognized as dominant components in total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) pools in many coastal waters, and its exchange between sediment and water is an important process in biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus. Adenosine monophosphate (AMP) was employed as a model DOP compound to simulate phosphorus exchange across sediment-water interface in Florida Bay. The sorption data from 40 stations were fitted to a modified Freundlich equation and provided a detailed spatial distribution both of the sediment's zero equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC(0-T)) and of the distribution coefficient (K(d-T)) with respect to TDP. The K(d-T) was found to be a function of the index of phosphorus saturation (IPS), a molar ratio of the surface reactive phosphorus to the surface reactive iron oxide content in the sediment, across the entire bay. However, the EPC(0-T) was found to correlate to the contents of phosphorus in the eastern bay only. Sediment in the western bay might act as a source of the phosphorus in the exchange process due to their high EPC(0-T) and low K(d-T), whereas sediments in the eastern bay might act as a sink because of their low EPC(0-T) and high K(d-T). These results strongly support the hypothesis that both phosphorus and iron species in calcareous marine sediments play a critical role in governing the sediment-water exchange of both phosphate and DOP in the coastal and estuarine ecosystems.

  14. Expert and Naive Raters Using the PAG: Does it Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornelius, Edwin T.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Questions the observed correlation between job experts and naive raters using the Position Analysis Questionnaire (PAQ); and conducts a replication of the Smith and Hakel study (1979) with college students (N=39). Concluded that PAQ ratings from job experts and college students are not equivalent and therefore are not interchangeable. (LLL)

  15. Extending radiative transfer models by use of Bayes rule. [in atmospheric science

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitney, C.

    1977-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure that extends some existing radiative transfer modeling techniques to problems in atmospheric science where curvature and layering of the medium and dynamic range and angular resolution of the signal are important. Example problems include twilight and limb scan simulations. Techniques that are extended include successive orders of scattering, matrix operator, doubling, Gauss-Seidel iteration, discrete ordinates and spherical harmonics. The procedure for extending them is based on Bayes' rule from probability theory.

  16. Privacy-Preserving Evaluation of Generalization Error and Its Application to Model and Attribute Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakuma, Jun; Wright, Rebecca N.

    Privacy-preserving classification is the task of learning or training a classifier on the union of privately distributed datasets without sharing the datasets. The emphasis of existing studies in privacy-preserving classification has primarily been put on the design of privacy-preserving versions of particular data mining algorithms, However, in classification problems, preprocessing and postprocessing— such as model selection or attribute selection—play a prominent role in achieving higher classification accuracy. In this paper, we show generalization error of classifiers in privacy-preserving classification can be securely evaluated without sharing prediction results. Our main technical contribution is a new generalized Hamming distance protocol that is universally applicable to preprocessing and postprocessing of various privacy-preserving classification problems, such as model selection in support vector machine and attribute selection in naive Bayes classification.

  17. A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2018-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m3s−1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

  18. Right lateralized white matter abnormalities in first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Guo, Wenbin; Liu, Feng; Liu, Zhening; Gao, Keming; Xiao, Changqing; Chen, Huafu; Zhao, Jingping

    2012-11-30

    Numerous studies in first-episode schizophrenia suggest the involvement of white matter (WM) abnormalities in multiple regions underlying the pathogenesis of this condition. However, there has never been a neuroimaging study in patients with first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia by using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) method. Here, we used diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) with TBSS method to investigate the brain WM integrity in patients with first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia. Twenty patients with first-episode, drug-naive paranoid schizophrenia and 26 healthy subjects matched with age, gender, and education level were scanned with DTI. An automated TBSS approach was employed to analyze the data. Voxel-wise statistics revealed that patients with paranoid schizophrenia had decreased fractional anisotropy (FA) values in the right superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF) II, the right fornix, the right internal capsule, and the right external capsule compared to healthy subjects. Patients did not have increased FA values in any brain regions compared to healthy subjects. There was no correlation between the FA values in any brain regions and patient demographics and the severity of illness. Our findings suggest right-sided alterations of WM integrity in the WM tracts of cortical and subcortical regions may play an important role in the pathogenesis of paranoid schizophrenia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Addition of docetaxel and/or zoledronic acid to standard of care for hormone-naive prostate cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Pengfei; Wen, Feng; Fu, Ping; Yang, Yu; Li, Qiu

    2017-07-31

    The effectiveness of the addition of docetaxel and/or zoledronic acid to the standard of care (SOC) for hormone-naive prostate cancer has been evaluated in the STAMPEDE trial. The object of the present analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these treatment options in the treatment of advanced hormone-naive prostate cancer in China. A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model was carried out from the Chinese societal perspective. The efficacy data were obtained from the STAMPEDE trial and health utilities were derived from previous studies. Transition probabilities were calculated based on the survival in each group. The primary endpoint in the analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and model uncertainties were explored by 1-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. SOC alone generated an effectiveness of 2.65 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a lifetime cost of $20,969.23. At a cost of $25,001.34, SOC plus zoledronic acid was associated with 2.69 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $100,802.75/QALY compared with SOC alone. SOC plus docetaxel gained an effectiveness of 2.85 QALYs at a cost of $28,764.66, while the effectiveness and cost data in the SOC plus zoledronic acid/docetaxel group were 2.78 QALYs and $32,640.95. Based on the results of the analysis, SOC plus zoledronic acid, SOC plus docetaxel, and SOC plus zoledronic acid/docetaxel are unlikely to be cost-effective options in patients with advanced hormone-naive prostate cancer compared with SOC alone.

  20. Short Term Sediment Exchange Between Marshes and Bays Using Beryllium-7 as a Tracer, Fourleague Bay, Louisiana.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Restreppo, G. A.; Bentley, S. J.; Xu, K.; Wang, J.

    2016-12-01

    Modern delta models focus on the availability and exchange of coarse sediment as one of the major factors of deltaic growth or decay. Fine-grained sediment exchange within a river's delta is relatively poorly understood, as is the impact that this exchange has on land building and land loss. To better understand the dynamics of fine grain sediment exchange between river mouth, adjacent bays, and marshland, sediment cores from Fourleague Bay, LA, were collected and analyzed for 7Be, a naturally occurring radioisotope that serves as a marker for recently deposited sediment. Time-series push cores were collected every two months at ten sites, five located across a longitudinal transect in the middle bay and five located along adjacent marshes, from May 2015 to May 2016. All sites fall within 11 to 28 km of the Atchafalaya Delta, along a gradient extending towards the open ocean. Cores were extruded in 2 cm intervals, dried, ground, and analyzed via gamma spectrometry for the presence of 7Be. Inventories of 7Be were then calculated and used to determine bimonthly sedimentation rates over the course twelve months. Sediment deposition on the bay floor and marsh surface were then compared to Atchafalaya River discharge, wind speed and direction, and wave action. Preliminary results indicate patterns of initial fluvial sediment transfer from river to bay floor, then bay floor to marsh surface, with decreasing fluvial influence towards the open ocean. Sediment transport from bay to marsh appears to be coupled with meteorological forcing that induces bay-floor sediment resuspension and the flooding of marsh surfaces. This indirect mechanism of fluvial sediment supply to wetland surfaces may extend the region of influence for sediment delivery from man-made river-sediment diversions.

  1. BayeSED: A GENERAL APPROACH TO FITTING THE SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION OF GALAXIES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Han, Yunkun; Han, Zhanwen, E-mail: hanyk@ynao.ac.cn, E-mail: zhanwenhan@ynao.ac.cn

    2014-11-01

    We present a newly developed version of BayeSED, a general Bayesian approach to the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of galaxies. The new BayeSED code has been systematically tested on a mock sample of galaxies. The comparison between the estimated and input values of the parameters shows that BayeSED can recover the physical parameters of galaxies reasonably well. We then applied BayeSED to interpret the SEDs of a large K{sub s} -selected sample of galaxies in the COSMOS/UltraVISTA field with stellar population synthesis models. Using the new BayeSED code, a Bayesian model comparison of stellar population synthesis models has beenmore » performed for the first time. We found that the 2003 model by Bruzual and Charlot, statistically speaking, has greater Bayesian evidence than the 2005 model by Maraston for the K{sub s} -selected sample. In addition, while setting the stellar metallicity as a free parameter obviously increases the Bayesian evidence of both models, varying the initial mass function has a notable effect only on the Maraston model. Meanwhile, the physical parameters estimated with BayeSED are found to be generally consistent with those obtained using the popular grid-based FAST code, while the former parameters exhibit more natural distributions. Based on the estimated physical parameters of the galaxies in the sample, we qualitatively classified the galaxies in the sample into five populations that may represent galaxies at different evolution stages or in different environments. We conclude that BayeSED could be a reliable and powerful tool for investigating the formation and evolution of galaxies from the rich multi-wavelength observations currently available. A binary version of the BayeSED code parallelized with Message Passing Interface is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/hanyk/bayesed.« less

  2. BayeSED: A General Approach to Fitting the Spectral Energy Distribution of Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Yunkun; Han, Zhanwen

    2014-11-01

    We present a newly developed version of BayeSED, a general Bayesian approach to the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of galaxies. The new BayeSED code has been systematically tested on a mock sample of galaxies. The comparison between the estimated and input values of the parameters shows that BayeSED can recover the physical parameters of galaxies reasonably well. We then applied BayeSED to interpret the SEDs of a large Ks -selected sample of galaxies in the COSMOS/UltraVISTA field with stellar population synthesis models. Using the new BayeSED code, a Bayesian model comparison of stellar population synthesis models has been performed for the first time. We found that the 2003 model by Bruzual & Charlot, statistically speaking, has greater Bayesian evidence than the 2005 model by Maraston for the Ks -selected sample. In addition, while setting the stellar metallicity as a free parameter obviously increases the Bayesian evidence of both models, varying the initial mass function has a notable effect only on the Maraston model. Meanwhile, the physical parameters estimated with BayeSED are found to be generally consistent with those obtained using the popular grid-based FAST code, while the former parameters exhibit more natural distributions. Based on the estimated physical parameters of the galaxies in the sample, we qualitatively classified the galaxies in the sample into five populations that may represent galaxies at different evolution stages or in different environments. We conclude that BayeSED could be a reliable and powerful tool for investigating the formation and evolution of galaxies from the rich multi-wavelength observations currently available. A binary version of the BayeSED code parallelized with Message Passing Interface is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/hanyk/bayesed.

  3. Hydraulic Control and Mixing in Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ott, M. W.

    2006-05-01

    Properly modeling the exchange rate at the mouths of estuarine bays is critical to understanding the effects of freshwater and pollutants on the hydrographic and biological conditions within these bays. There is evidence that hydraulic control occurs at certain locations in the deeper channels of Chesapeake Bay and may be a mechanism in limiting the exchange rate. In addition, the vertical and horizontal mixing associated with the resulting hydraulic jumps has implications both for the hydrographic conditions and circulation, as well as for primary productivity within Chesapeake Bay. Shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data, as well as conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) profiles were collected during the spring of 2005 at various locations within Chesapeake Bay to better understand the occurrence and strength of hydraulic controls in relation to the phases of the fortnightly and semi-diurnal tidal cycles as well as to topography. Mixing is shown to occur alternatively over both hollows and bumps, depending on the tidal phase, and the strength and effects if this mixing is compared.

  4. Thinking Process of Naive Problem Solvers to Solve Mathematical Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mairing, Jackson Pasini

    2017-01-01

    Solving problems is not only a goal of mathematical learning. Students acquire ways of thinking, habits of persistence and curiosity, and confidence in unfamiliar situations by learning to solve problems. In fact, there were students who had difficulty in solving problems. The students were naive problem solvers. This research aimed to describe…

  5. The Profession of Psychology Scale: Sophisticated and Naive Students' Responses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosenthal, Gary T.; Soper, Barlow; Rachal, Chris; McKnight, Richard R.; Price, A. W.

    2004-01-01

    The Profession of Psychology Scale (Rosenthal, McKnight & Price, 2001) was used to investigate whether taking more psychology courses results in a more accurate understanding of what is required to become a psychologist. Data indicate that though misconceptions exist in both Naive students (those who had not completed any psychology courses) and…

  6. IL-15 induces antigen-independent expansion and differentiation of human naive CD8+ T cells in vitro.

    PubMed

    Alves, Nuno L; Hooibrink, Berend; Arosa, Fernando A; van Lier, René A W

    2003-10-01

    Recent studies in mice have shown that although interleukin 15 (IL-15) plays an important role in regulating homeostasis of memory CD8+ T cells, it has no apparent function in controlling homeostatic proliferation of naive T cells. We here assessed the influence of IL-15 on antigen-independent expansion and differentiation of human CD8+ T cells. Both naive and primed human T cells divided in response to IL-15. In this process, naive CD8+ T cells successively down-regulated CD45RA and CD28 but maintained CD27 expression. Concomitant with these phenotypic changes, naive cells acquired the ability to produce interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), expressed perforin and granzyme B, and acquired cytotoxic properties. Primed CD8+ T cells, from both noncytotoxic (CD45RA-CD27+) and cytotoxic (CD45RA+CD27-) subsets, responded to IL-15 and yielded ample numbers of cytokine-secreting and cytotoxic effector cells. In summary, all human CD8+ T-cell subsets had the ability to respond to IL-15, which suggests a generic influence of this cytokine on CD8+ T-cell homeostasis in man.

  7. Naive and effector B-cell subtypes are increased in chronic rhinosinusitis with polyps.

    PubMed

    Miljkovic, Dijana; Psaltis, Alkis; Wormald, Peter-John; Vreugde, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies demonstrated that B cells and their chemoattractants are elevated in the nasal mucosa of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) with nasal polyposis (CRSwNP). However, the presence of naive B cells and of plasmablasts and memory B-cell subsets in the mucosa and periphery of the same patient with CRS is yet to be characterized. Here we sought to quantify naive, plasmablasts, and memory B cells in mucosal tissue and peripheral blood of patients with CRSwNP, patients with CRS without nasal polyps (CRSsNP), and control patients. Polyps, mucosa, and peripheral blood samples were prospectively collected from the patients with CRS and from the non-CRS controls. We used flow cytometry to distinguish among naive, plasmablast, and memory B cells in sinus tissue and peripheral blood. A total of 45 patients were recruited for the study. The patients with CRSwNP had significantly increased mucosal B-cell numbers versus the controls (3.39 ± 4.05% versus 0.39 ± 1.05% of live cells; p < 0.01, Kruskal-Wallis test), which included naive B cells (0.61 ± 0.94 versus 0.11 ± 0.24% of live cells; p < 0.03, Kruskal-Wallis test), plasmablasts (0.06 ± 0.26 versus 0.00 ± 0.00% of live cells; p < 0.055, Kruskal-Wallis test), and memory B cells (0.62 ± 1.26 versus 0.05 ± 0.15% of live cells; p < 0.02, Kruskal-Wallis test). Our study identified increased frequencies of different B-cell subtypes in the mucosa of patients with CRSwNP but not in the peripheral blood. We also found that patients with CRSwNP had significantly increased B-cell subtypes compared with the patients with CRSsNP and the controls. These results implied a potential role for mucosal B cells in the ongoing inflammation in patients with CRSwNP.

  8. Establishing and applying of a coupled individual based model of edible jellyfish(Rhopilema esculentum Kishinouye) releasing in the Liaodong Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Liping; Qiao, Fangli

    2017-04-01

    A three-dimensional circulation-surface wave coupled hydrodynamic model coupled with an individual-based jellyfish model was established to investigate the influence of physical process on edible jellyfish releasing stock enhancement in Liaodong Bay. Sensitivity experiments show that the wind intensity and direction have both direct and indirect impacts on the distribution of the jellyfish. When the wind is strong, the surface current in Liaodong Bay has the same direction of the wind. Under the co-effect of the ocean current transport and the surface wind transport, the jellyfish inhabits in the northeast of Liaodong bay, which is consistent with the observation. In the circumstance of weak wind, the circulation is clockwise and the jellyfish will spread around the 5m isobaths following the circulation. Research of the jellyfish distribution shows that the releasing jellyfish will stay in Liaodong bay in its whole life history, hence Liaodong Bay is a quite suitable area for enhancement releasing. The influence of the temperature on releasing region and date is also investigated. The threshold date during 2008 to 2016 is calculated, which is the date when the temperature of water within 10m isobaths in Liaodong Bay rises up to 15oC. In 2010, the threshold date came about one week later while the medusa releasing date remains the same in 2009. As a result, higher fatality rate of medusa caused by the cold water resulted in lower recapture rate in 2010. Therefore, the releasing date and location should be varied according to environmental conditions. The threshold date tends to appear earlier during 2008 to 2016, which suggests an earlier releasing date. In summer, due to the cold water mass intrusion from the south, the releasing date in the north area should be earlier than in the south.

  9. Effects of waves on water dispersion in a semi-enclosed estuarine bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delpey, M. T.; Ardhuin, F.; Otheguy, P.

    2012-04-01

    The bay of Saint Jean de Luz - Ciboure is a touristic destination located in the south west of France on the Basque coast. This small bay is 1.5km wide for 1km long. It is semi-enclosed by breakwaters, so that the area is mostly protected from waves except in its eastern part, where wave breaking is regularly observed over a shallow rock shelf. In the rest of the area the currents are generally weak. The bay receives fresh water inflows from two rivers. During intense raining events, the rivers can introduce pollutants in the bay. The input of pollutants combined with the low level dynamic of the area can affect the water quality for several days. To study such a phenomenon, mechanisms of water dispersion in the bay are investigated. The present paper focuses on the effects of waves on bay dynamics. Several field experiments were conducted in the area, combining wave and current measurements from a set of ADCP and ADV, lagrangian difter experiments in the surfzone, salinity and temperature profile measurements. An analysis of this set of various data is provided. It reveals that the bay combines remarkable density stratification due to fresh water inflows and occasionally intense wave-induced currents in the surfzone. These currents have a strong influence on river plume dynamics when the sea state is energetic. Moreover, modifications of hydrodynamics in the bay passes are found to be remarkably correlated with sea state evolutions. This result suggests a significant impact of waves on the bay flushing. To further analyse these phenomena, a three dimensional numerical model of bay hydrodynamics is developed. The model aims at reproducing fresh water inflows combined with wind-, tide- and wave-induced currents and mixing. The model of the bay is implemented using the code MOHID , which has been modified to allow the three dimensional representation of wave-current interactions proposed by Ardhuin et al. [2008b] . The circulation is forced by the wave field modelled

  10. Comparison of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from watersheds draining the Bay Area and the Central Valley of California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKee, L.J.; Lewicki, M.; Schoellhamer, D.H.; Ganju, N.K.

    2013-01-01

    Quantifying suspended sediment loads is important for managing the world's estuaries in the context of navigation, pollutant transport, wetland restoration, and coastal erosion. To address these needs, a comprehensive analysis was completed on sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from fluvial sources. Suspended sediment, optical backscatter, velocity data near the head of the estuary, and discharge data obtained from the output of a water balance model were used to generate continuous suspended sediment concentration records and compute loads to the Bay from the large Central Valley watershed. Sediment loads from small tributary watersheds around the Bay were determined using 235 station-years of suspended sediment data from 38 watershed locations, regression analysis, and simple modeling. Over 16 years, net annual suspended sediment load to the head of the estuary from its 154,000 km2 Central Valley watershed varied from 0.13 to 2.58 (mean = 0.89) million metric t of suspended sediment, or an average yield of 11 metric t/km2/yr. Small tributaries, totaling 8145 km2, in the nine-county Bay Area discharged between 0.081 and 4.27 (mean = 1.39) million metric t with a mean yield of 212 metric t/km2/yr. The results indicate that the hundreds of urbanized and tectonically active tributaries adjacent to the Bay, which together account for just 5% of the total watershed area draining to the Bay and provide just 7% of the annual average fluvial flow, supply 61% of the suspended sediment. The small tributary loads are more variable (53-fold between years compared to 21-fold for the inland Central Valley rivers) and dominated fluvial sediment supply to the Bay during 10 out of 16 yr. If San Francisco Bay is typical of other estuaries in active tectonic or climatically variable coastal regimes, managers responsible for water quality, dredging and reusing sediment accumulating in shipping channels, or restoring wetlands in the world's estuaries may need to more carefully

  11. 77 FR 70891 - Safety Zone; Bay Bridge Construction, San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-28

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Bay Bridge Construction, San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA AGENCY: Coast Guard... the navigable waters of the San Francisco Bay near Yerba Buena Island, CA in support of the Bay Bridge... construction of the Bay Bridge, the safety zone is necessary to provide for the safety of mariners transiting...

  12. Modeling Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claire, J. A.; Goetz, S. J.; Bockstael, N.

    2003-12-01

    Low density, decentralized residential and commercial development is increasingly the dominant pattern of exurban land use in many developed countries, particularly the United States. The term "sprawl" is now commonly used to describe this form of development, the environmental and quality-of-life impacts of which are becoming central to debates over land use in urban and suburban areas. Continued poor health of the Chesapeake Bay, located in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, is due in part to disruptions in the hydrological system caused by urban and suburban development throughout the 167,000 square kilometer watershed. We present results of a spatial predictive model of land use change based on cellular automata (SLEUTH), which was calibrated using high resolution (30m cell size) maps of the built environment derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery for the period 1986-2000. The model was applied to a 23,740 square kilometer area centered on Washington DC - Baltimore MD, and predictions were made out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios (current trends, managed growth, and "sustainable"). Accuracy of the model was assessed at three scales (pixel, watershed and county) and overall strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented, particularly in comparison to other econometric modeling approaches.

  13. M9.1 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Tsunami Inundation Modeling of Sequim Bay and Lopez Island, Washington

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. J.; Cakir, R.; Walsh, T. J.; LeVeque, R. J.; Adams, L. M.; Gonzalez, F. I.

    2016-12-01

    The Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal zone are prone to tsunami hazard triggered by a M9+ Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. In addition to the numerous tsunami deposits observed on the outer coast, there is geological evidence for nine sandy or muddy tsunami layers deposited in last 2500-year period in a tidal marsh area of Discovery Bay, Northeastern Olympic Peninsula, Washington (Williams et al., 2005, The Holocene, v. 15, no. 1). Thus, it is important to assess the potential tsunami hazard due to a future M9+ CSZ earthquake event that may impact local communities in and near Discovery Bay area . In this study, we conducted tsunami simulations using Clawpack-GeoClaw and the earthquake source scenario M9.1 CSZ, designated as "L1" (Witter et al., 2011, Oregon DOGAMI Special Paper 43). A fine-resolution (1/3 arc-second) NOAA digital elevation model (DEM) was used to provide a high resolution tsunami inundation simulation in Sequim Bay (about 5 miles west of Discovery Bay), Clallam county and Lopez Island, San Juan County. The test gauges, set around major infrastructures and properties, provided estimates of wave height, wave velocity, and wave arrival time. The results will contribute to further improving mitigation planning and emergency response efforts of the counties.

  14. A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, K.C.; Hoppen, S.; Gaydos, L.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we describe a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model developed to predict urban growth as part of a project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization on the San Francisco Bay area's climate. The rules of the model are more complex than those of a typical CA and involve the use of multiple data sources, including topography, road networks, and existing settlement distributions, and their modification over time. In addition, the control parameters of the model are allowed to self-modify: that is, the CA adapts itself to the circumstances it generates, in particular, during periods of rapid growth or stagnation. In addition, the model was written to allow the accumulation of probabilistic estimates based on Monte Carlo methods. Calibration of the model has been accomplished by the use of historical maps to compare model predictions of urbanization, based solely upon the distribution in year 1900, with observed data for years 1940, 1954, 1962, 1974, and 1990. The complexity of this model has made calibration a particularly demanding step. Lessons learned about the methods, measures, and strategies developed to calibrate the model may be of use in other environmental modeling contexts. With the calibration complete, the model is being used to generate a set of future scenarios for the San Francisco Bay area along with their probabilities based on the Monte Carlo version of the model. Animated dynamic mapping of the simulations will be used to allow visualization of the impact of future urban growth.

  15. A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1) for spatial prediction of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tien Bui, Dieu; Hoang, Nhat-Duc

    2017-09-01

    In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA), and a geographic information system (GIS) database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

  16. Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

    2017-03-29

    The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

  17. Children's Naive Concepts of OCD and How They Are Affected by Biomedical Versus Cognitive Behavioural Psychoeducation.

    PubMed

    Butlin, B; Wilson, C

    2018-04-04

    How we conceptualize mental health conditions is important as it impacts on a wide range of mediators of treatment outcome. We do not know how children intuitively conceptualize obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), nor do we know the relative impact of biomedical or cognitive behavioural conceptual explanations, yet both are being widely used in psychoeducation for children with OCD. This study identified children's naive concepts of OCD, and the comparative impact of biomedical versus cognitive behavioural psychoeducation on perceived prognosis. A within- and between-subjects experimental design was used. After watching a video of a young person describing their OCD, 202 children completed a questionnaire examining their concepts of the condition. They repeated the questionnaire following a second equivalent video, this time preceded by either biomedical or cognitive behavioural psychoeducation. Participants' naive concepts of OCD reflected predominant models of OCD in healthcare. Even at the minimal dose of psychoeducation, participants' conceptualizations of OCD changed. Prior exposure to OCD resulted in a stronger alignment with the biomedical model. Exposure to biomedical psychoeducation resulted in participants predicting a slower recovery with less chance of complete remission. Psychoeducation for childhood OCD is impactful. Despite its wide use by clinicians and mental health services, biomedical psychoeducation appears to have deleterious effects. Children's concepts of OCD merit attention but caution should be applied in how they are targeted.

  18. Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nuttle, William K.; Fourqurean, James W.; Cosby, Bernard J.; Zieman, Joseph C.; Robblee, Michael B.

    2000-01-01

    An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central

  19. Large-scale sequence and structural comparisons of human naive and antigen-experienced antibody repertoires

    PubMed Central

    DeKosky, Brandon J.; Lungu, Oana I.; Park, Daechan; Johnson, Erik L.; Charab, Wissam; Chrysostomou, Constantine; Kuroda, Daisuke; Ellington, Andrew D.; Ippolito, Gregory C.; Gray, Jeffrey J.; Georgiou, George

    2016-01-01

    Elucidating how antigen exposure and selection shape the human antibody repertoire is fundamental to our understanding of B-cell immunity. We sequenced the paired heavy- and light-chain variable regions (VH and VL, respectively) from large populations of single B cells combined with computational modeling of antibody structures to evaluate sequence and structural features of human antibody repertoires at unprecedented depth. Analysis of a dataset comprising 55,000 antibody clusters from CD19+CD20+CD27− IgM-naive B cells, >120,000 antibody clusters from CD19+CD20+CD27+ antigen–experienced B cells, and >2,000 RosettaAntibody-predicted structural models across three healthy donors led to a number of key findings: (i) VH and VL gene sequences pair in a combinatorial fashion without detectable pairing restrictions at the population level; (ii) certain VH:VL gene pairs were significantly enriched or depleted in the antigen-experienced repertoire relative to the naive repertoire; (iii) antigen selection increased antibody paratope net charge and solvent-accessible surface area; and (iv) public heavy-chain third complementarity-determining region (CDR-H3) antibodies in the antigen-experienced repertoire showed signs of convergent paired light-chain genetic signatures, including shared light-chain third complementarity-determining region (CDR-L3) amino acid sequences and/or Vκ,λ–Jκ,λ genes. The data reported here address several longstanding questions regarding antibody repertoire selection and development and provide a benchmark for future repertoire-scale analyses of antibody responses to vaccination and disease. PMID:27114511

  20. Seasonal estimates of DOC standing stocks in Apalachicola Bay estuary: Towards a better understanding using field, ocean color and model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Sa, E. J.; Joshi, I.; Osburn, C. L.; Bianchi, T. S.; Ko, D. S.; Oviedo-Vargas, D.; Arellano, A.; Ward, N.

    2016-12-01

    Apalachicola Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary located in Florida's panhandle, is well known for its water quality and oyster yields. We present the use of combined field and ocean color satellite observations and the outputs of a high-resolution hydrodynamic model to study the influence of physical processes on the distribution and the transport of terrestrially derived CDOM and DOC to shelf waters during the spring and fall of 2015. Determination of DOC stocks were based on the development of a CDOM algorithm (R2 = 0.87, N = 9) for the VIIRS ocean color sensor, and the assessment of CDOM - DOC relationships (R2 = 0.88, N = 13 in March; R2 = 0.83, N = 24 in November) for the Apalachicola Bay. Satellite-derived CDOM and DOC maps together with model-based salinity distributions revealed their spatial extent, sources and transport to the shelf water. Furthermore, strong seasonal influence on DOM distribution in the bay was associated with inputs from Apalachicola and Carrabelle Rivers and the surrounding marshes. Estimates of DOC standing stocks in the bay obtained using ocean color data and high-resolution bathymetry showed relatively higher stocks in November ( 3.71 × 106 kg C, 560 km2) than in March ( 4.07 × 106 kg C, 560 km2) despite lower river discharge in dry season. Results of DOC flux estimates from the bay to coastal waters will also be presented.

  1. 33 CFR 100.112 - Swim the Bay, Narragansett Bay, Narragansett, RI.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Swim the Bay, Narragansett Bay, Narragansett, RI. 100.112 Section 100.112 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.112 Swim the Bay...

  2. A Workshop for High School Students on Naive Set Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wegner, Sven-Ake

    2014-01-01

    In this article we present the prototype of a workshop on naive set theory designed for high school students in or around the seventh year of primary education. Our concept is based on two events which the author organized in 2006 and 2010 for students of elementary school and high school, respectively. The article also includes a practice report…

  3. An Empirical Bayes Approach to Spatial Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, C. N.; Kostal, H.

    1983-01-01

    Multi-channel LANDSAT data are collected in several passes over agricultural areas during the growing season. How empirical Bayes modeling can be used to develop crop identification and discrimination techniques that account for spatial correlation in such data is considered. The approach models the unobservable parameters and the data separately, hoping to take advantage of the fact that the bulk of spatial correlation lies in the parameter process. The problem is then framed in terms of estimating posterior probabilities of crop types for each spatial area. Some empirical Bayes spatial estimation methods are used to estimate the logits of these probabilities.

  4. Summary of findings about circulation and the estuarine turbidity maximum in Suisun Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoellhamer, David H.; Burau, Jon R.

    1998-01-01

    Suisun Bay, California, is the most landward subembayment of San Francisco Bay (fig. 1) and is an important ecological habitat (Cloern and others, 1983; Jassby and others, 1995). During the 1960s and 1970s, data collected in Suisun Bay were analyzed to develop a conceptual model of how water, salt, and sediment move within and through the Bay. This conceptual model has been used to manage freshwater flows from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to Suisun Bay to improve habitat for several threatened and endangered fish species. Instrumentation used to measure water velocity, salinity, and suspended-solids concentration (SSC) greatly improved during the 1980s and 1990s. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has utilized these new instruments to collect one of the largest, high-quality hydrodynamic and sediment data sets available for any estuary. Analysis of these new data has led to the revision of the conceptual model of circulation and sediment transport in Suisun Bay.

  5. 75 FR 36292 - Safety Zone; Bay Swim III, Presque Isle Bay, Erie, PA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-25

    ... of Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, near Erie, Pennsylvania between 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. on June 26, 2010.... The safety zone will encompass specified waters of Presque Isle Bay, Erie, Pennsylvania starting at...-AA00 Safety Zone; Bay Swim III, Presque Isle Bay, Erie, PA AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION: Temporary...

  6. Structure, age and origin of the bay-mouth shoal deposits, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Berquist, C.R.; Hobbs, C. H.

    1988-01-01

    The mouth of Chesapeake Bay contains a distinctive shoal complex and related deposits that result from the complex interaction of three different processes: (1) progradation of a barrier spit at the southern end of the Delmarva Peninsula, (2) strong, reversing tidal currents that transport and rework sediment brought to the bay mouth from the north, and (3) landward (bayward) net non-tidal circulation and sediment transport. Together, these processes play a major role in changing the configuration of the estuary and filling it with sediment. The deposits at the mouth of the bay hold keys both to the evolution of the bay during the Holocene transgression and to the history of previous generations of the bay. The deposit associated with the shoals at the mouth of the bay, the bay-mouth sand, is a distinct stratigraphic unit composed mostly of uniform, gray, fine sand. The position and internal structure of the unit shows that it is related to near-present sea level, and thus is less than a few thousand years old. The processes affecting the upper surface of the deposit and the patterns of erosion and deposition at this surface are complex, but the geometry and structure of the deposit indicate that it is a coherent unit that is prograding bayward and tending to fill the estuary. The source of the bay-mouth sand is primarily outside the bay in the nearshore zone of the Delmarva Peninsula and on the inner continental shelf. The internal structure of the deposit, its surface morphology, its heavy-mineral composition, bottom-current studies, comparative bathymetry, and sediment budgets all suggest that sand is brought to the bay mouth by southerly longshore drift along the Delmarva Peninsula and then swept into the bay. In addition to building the southward- and bayward-prograding bay-mouth sand, these processes result in sand deposition tens of kilometers into the bay. ?? 1988.

  7. Baltimore Harbor and Channels Deepening Study; Chesapeake Bay Hydraulic Model Investigation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-02-01

    neap-spring salinity vari- ability. Stations within the Patapsco River (Plates 78-90), and the Magothy River station (MA-I-1, Plate 74), immediately...to-base salinity variations are found at upper bay stations above the constriction at range CB-4. Only Magothy River sta MA-l, and sta CB-7-1 have...Across the bay at the western shore Magothy River sta MA-I-I (Plate 74) no appreciable plan-to-base salinity differences are found, although during

  8. AutoBayes Program Synthesis System Users Manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schumann, Johann; Jafari, Hamed; Pressburger, Tom; Denney, Ewen; Buntine, Wray; Fischer, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    Program synthesis is the systematic, automatic construction of efficient executable code from high-level declarative specifications. AutoBayes is a fully automatic program synthesis system for the statistical data analysis domain; in particular, it solves parameter estimation problems. It has seen many successful applications at NASA and is currently being used, for example, to analyze simulation results for Orion. The input to AutoBayes is a concise description of a data analysis problem composed of a parameterized statistical model and a goal that is a probability term involving parameters and input data. The output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code computing the values for those parameters that maximize the probability term. AutoBayes can solve many subproblems symbolically rather than having to rely on numeric approximation algorithms, thus yielding effective, efficient, and compact code. Statistical analysis is faster and more reliable, because effort can be focused on model development and validation rather than manual development of solution algorithms and code.

  9. 33 CFR 162.125 - Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Wisc.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Wisc. 162.125 Section 162.125 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) PORTS AND WATERWAYS SAFETY INLAND WATERWAYS NAVIGATION REGULATIONS § 162.125 Sturgeon Bay and the Sturgeon Bay Ship...

  10. Superior efficacy of helicase-primase inhibitor BAY 57-1293 for herpes infection and latency in the guinea pig model of human genital herpes disease.

    PubMed

    Baumeister, Judith; Fischer, Ruediger; Eckenberg, Peter; Henninger, Kerstin; Ruebsamen-Waigmann, Helga; Kleymann, Gerald

    2007-01-01

    The efficacy of BAY 57-1293, a novel non-nucleosidic inhibitor of herpes simplex virus 1 and 2 (HSV-1 and HSV-2), bovine herpesvirus and pseudorabies virus, was studied in the guinea pig model of genital herpes in comparison with the licensed drug valaciclovir (Valtrex). Early therapy with BAY 57-1293 almost completely suppressed the symptoms of acute HSV-2 infection, and reduced virus shedding and viral load in the sacral dorsal root ganglia by up to three orders of magnitude, resulting in decreased latency and a greatly diminished frequency of subsequent recurrent episodes. In contrast, valaciclovir showed only moderate effects in this set of experiments. When treatment was initiated late during the course of disease after symptoms were apparent, that is, a setting closer to most clinical situations, the efficacy of therapy with BAY 57-1293 was even more pronounced. Compared with valaciclovir, BAY 57-1293 halved the time necessary for complete healing. Moreover, the onset of action was fast, so that only very few animals developed new lesions after treatment commenced. Finally, in a study addressing the treatment of recurrent disease in animals whose primary infection had remained untreated BAY 57-1293 was efficient in suppressing the episodes. In summary, superior potency and efficacy of BAY 57-1293 over standard treatment with valaciclovir was demonstrated in relevant animal models of human genital herpes disease in terms of abrogating an HSV infection, reducing latency and the frequency of subsequent recurrences. Furthermore, BAY 57-1293 shortens the time to healing even if initiation of therapy is delayed.

  11. Pb’s high sedimentation inside the bay mouth of Jiaozhou Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Dongfang; Miao, Zhenqing; Huang, Xinmin; Wei, Linzhen; Feng, Ming

    2017-12-01

    Sedimentation is one of the key environmental behaviors of pollutants in the ocean. This paper analyzed the seasonal and temporal variations of Pb’s sedimentation process in Jiaozhou Bay in 1987. Results showed that Pb contents in bottom waters in Jiaozhou Bay in May, July and November 1987 were 1.87-2.60 μg L-1, 15.11-19.68 μg L-1 and 11.08-15.18 μg L-1, and the pollution levels of Pb in May, July and November 1987 were slight, heavy and heavy, respectively. In May 1987, there was low sedimentation process in waters in the outside of the bay mouth, yet were high sedimentation process in waters in the middle and inside of the bay mouth. In July and November 1987, there was low sedimentation process in waters in the outside of the bay mouth, yet were high sedimentation process in waters in the inside of the bay mouth. The seasonal-temporal variation of sedimentation processes of Pb were determined by the variations of sources input and the vertical water’s effect.

  12. A SVM-based method for sentiment analysis in Persian language

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hajmohammadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Ibrahim, Roliana

    2013-03-01

    Persian language is the official language of Iran, Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Local online users often represent their opinions and experiences on the web with written Persian. Although the information in those reviews is valuable to potential consumers and sellers, the huge amount of web reviews make it difficult to give an unbiased evaluation to a product. In this paper, standard machine learning techniques SVM and naive Bayes are incorporated into the domain of online Persian Movie reviews to automatically classify user reviews as positive or negative and performance of these two classifiers is compared with each other in this language. The effects of feature presentations on classification performance are discussed. We find that accuracy is influenced by interaction between the classification models and the feature options. The SVM classifier achieves as well as or better accuracy than naive Bayes in Persian movie. Unigrams are proved better features than bigrams and trigrams in capturing Persian sentiment orientation.

  13. Modeling Historical and Projected Future Atmospheric Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    EPA Science Inventory

    Land use and climate change are expected to alter key processes in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and can potentially exacerbate the impact of excess nitrogen. Atmospheric sources are one of the largest loadings of nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In this study, we explore...

  14. Targeted Help for Spoken Dialogue Systems: Intelligent Feedback Improves Naive Users' Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hockey, Beth Ann; Lemon, Oliver; Campana, Ellen; Hiatt, Laura; Aist, Gregory; Hieronymous, Jim; Gruenstein, Alexander; Dowding, John

    2003-01-01

    We present experimental evidence that providing naive users of a spoken dialogue system with immediate help messages related to their out-of-coverage utterances improves their success in using the system. A grammar-based recognizer and a Statistical Language Model (SLM) recognizer are run simultaneously. If the grammar-based recognizer suceeds, the less accurate SLM recognizer hypothesis is not used. When the grammar-based recognizer fails and the SLM recognizer produces a recognition hypothesis, this result is used by the Targeted Help agent to give the user feed-back on what was recognized, a diagnosis of what was problematic about the utterance, and a related in-coverage example. The in-coverage example is intended to encourage alignment between user inputs and the language model of the system. We report on controlled experiments on a spoken dialogue system for command and control of a simulated robotic helicopter.

  15. Tidal-flow, circulation, and flushing characteristics of Kings Bay, Citrus County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hammett, K.M.; Goodwin, C.R.; Sanders, G.L.

    1996-01-01

    Kings Bay is an estuary on the gulf coast of peninsular Florida with a surface area of less than one square mile. It is a unique estuarine system with no significant inflowing rivers or streams. As much as 99 percent of the freshwater entering the bay originates from multiple spring vents at the bottom of the estuary. The circulation and flushing characteristics of Kings Bay were evaluated by applying SIMSYS2D, a two-dimensional numerical model. Field data were used to calibrate and verify the model. Lagrangian particle simulations were used to determine the circulation characteristics for three hydrologic conditions: low inflow, typical inflow, and low inflow with reduced friction from aquatic vegetation. Spring discharge transported the particles from Kings Bay through Crystal River and out of the model domain. Tidal effects added an oscillatory component to the particle paths. The mean particle residence time was 59 hours for low inflow with reduced friction; therefore, particle residence time is affected more by spring discharge than by bottom friction. Circulation patterns were virtually identical for the three simulated hydroloigc conditions. Simulated particles introduced in the southern part of Kings Bay traveled along the eastern side of Buzzard Island before entering Crystal River and existing the model domain. The flushing characteristics of Kings Bay for the three hydrodynamic conditions were determined by simulating the injection of conservative dye constituents. The average concentration of dye initially injected in Kings Bay decreased asymptotically because of spring discharge, and the tide caused some oscillation in the average dye concentration. Ninety-five percent of the injected dye exited Kings Bay and Crystal River with 94 hours for low inflow, 71 hours for typical inflow, and 94 hours for low inflow with reduced bottom friction. Simulation results indicate that all of the open waters of Kings Bay are flushed by the spring discharge. Reduced

  16. Map showing thickness of young bay mud, southern San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, Sandra D.; Nichols, Donald R.; Wright, Nancy A.; Atwater, Brian

    1978-01-01

    Soft water-saturated estuarine deposits less than 10,000 years old underlie the southern part of San Francisco bay and the present and former marshlands that border the bay. Known locally as bay mud or as young bay mud, these deposits, and the estuarine environment that produces them, are of major importance in making decision on land use and development in the San Francisco Bay area. Knowledge of the distribution, thickness, and physical properties of young bay mud is critical to the feasibility, design, and maintenance of structures built on it. Fore this reason, numerous attempts have been made in the past to map or describe these characteristics (Mitchell, 1963; Goldman, 1969; McDonald and Nichols, 1974). The accompanying map of bay-mud thickness significantly revises part of an earlier compilation by Kahle and Goldman (1969) and includes new data from approximately 2400 boreholes, most of which have been drilled during the past 15 years. It also incorporates information on historic margins of San Francisco Bay and its tidal marshes (Nichols and Wright, 1971). Although this map was compelled mostly from data gathered during foundation investigations and construction projects, it is mostly from data gathered during foundation investigations and construction projects, it is not a substitute for such studies. Rather, the map provides regional information for land-use planning, seismic zonation, and design of foundation investigations.

  17. 77 FR 14276 - Regulated Navigation Area; Little Bay Bridge Construction, Little Bay, Portsmouth, NH

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-09

    ...-AA11 Regulated Navigation Area; Little Bay Bridge Construction, Little Bay, Portsmouth, NH AGENCY... under and surrounding the Little Bay and General Sullivan Bridges in order to facilitate construction of the Little Bay Bridge between Newington, NH and Dover, NH. This temporary interim rule is necessary to...

  18. HIV-1 drug resistance mutations emerging on darunavir therapy in PI-naive and -experienced patients in the UK.

    PubMed

    El Bouzidi, Kate; White, Ellen; Mbisa, Jean L; Sabin, Caroline A; Phillips, Andrew N; Mackie, Nicola; Pozniak, Anton L; Tostevin, Anna; Pillay, Deenan; Dunn, David T

    2016-12-01

    Darunavir is considered to have a high genetic barrier to resistance. Most darunavir-associated drug resistance mutations (DRMs) have been identified through correlation of baseline genotype with virological response in clinical trials. However, there is little information on DRMs that are directly selected by darunavir in clinical settings. We examined darunavir DRMs emerging in clinical practice in the UK. Baseline and post-exposure protease genotypes were compared for individuals in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study who had received darunavir; analyses were stratified for PI history. A selection analysis was used to compare the evolution of subtype B proteases in darunavir recipients and matched PI-naive controls. Of 6918 people who had received darunavir, 386 had resistance tests pre- and post-exposure. Overall, 2.8% (11/386) of these participants developed emergent darunavir DRMs. The prevalence of baseline DRMs was 1.0% (2/198) among PI-naive participants and 13.8% (26/188) among PI-experienced participants. Emergent DRMs developed in 2.0% of the PI-naive group (4 mutations) and 3.7% of the PI-experienced group (12 mutations). Codon 77 was positively selected in the PI-naive darunavir cases, but not in the control group. Our findings suggest that although emergent darunavir resistance is rare, it may be more common among PI-experienced patients than those who are PI-naive. Further investigation is required to explore whether codon 77 is a novel site involved in darunavir susceptibility. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.

  19. Insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function in protease inhibitor-treated and -naive human immunodeficiency virus-infected children.

    PubMed

    Bitnun, Ari; Sochett, Etienne; Dick, Paul T; To, Teresa; Jefferies, Craig; Babyn, Paul; Forbes, Jack; Read, Stanley; King, Susan M

    2005-01-01

    Previous pediatric studies have failed to demonstrate a clear association between protease inhibitor (PI) therapy and abnormal glucose homeostasis in HIV-infected children. To define more precisely the impact of PI therapy on glucose homeostasis in this population, we performed the insulin-modified frequent-sampling iv glucose tolerance test on 33 PI-treated and 15 PI-naive HIV-infected children. Other investigations included fasting serum lipids; glucose, insulin, and C-peptide; single-slice abdominal computed tomography; and, in a subset of PI-treated children, an oral glucose tolerance test. There were no differences between the two groups with respect to fasting serum insulin or C-peptide, homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance, or quantitative insulin sensitivity check index. The mean insulin sensitivity index of PI-treated and PI-naive children was 6.93 +/- 6.37 and 10.58 +/- 12.93 x 10(-4)min(-1) [microU/ml](-1), respectively (P = 0.17). The mean disposition index for the two groups was 1840 +/- 1575 and 3708 +/- 3005 x 10(-4)min(-1) (P = 0.013), respectively. After adjusting for potential confounding variables using multiple regression analysis, the insulin sensitivity index and disposition index of PI-treated children were significantly lower than that of PI-naive children (P = 0.01 for both). In PI-treated but not PI-naive children, insulin sensitivity correlated inversely with visceral adipose tissue area (r = -0.43, P = 0.01) and visceral to sc adipose tissue ratio (r = -0.49, P = 0.004). Mildly impaired glucose tolerance was noted in four of 21 PI-treated subjects tested. Our results demonstrate not only that PI therapy reduces insulin sensitivity in HIV-infected children but also that it impairs the beta-cell response to this reduction in insulin sensitivity and, in a subset of children, leads to the development of impaired glucose tolerance. The presence of insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and the significant correlation of reduced insulin

  20. Hydrodynamic and transport responses to land reclamation in different areas of semi-enclosed subtropical bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Ye; Chui, Ting Fong May

    2017-07-01

    Many coastal areas worldwide have been reclaimed to meet the increasing land demand. Understanding the effects of land reclamation on the hydrodynamics and transport processes of a semi-enclosed bay is therefore of significance. From a case study of Deep Bay (DB) in China and referring to idealized bay models, the effects of two types of land reclamation, one that narrows the bay mouth and another that reduces the water area inside the bay, were examined in this study. Simulation results of idealized models show that the current velocity at the bay mouth and the incoming tidal energy flux are negatively correlated with the width of bay mouth, as the tidal prism remains almost constant when the bay mouth width reduces. The bay mouth width reduction would also increase the tidal energy dissipation inside of the bay due to friction increase. In DB, a 30% reduction in the mouth width increased the bay mouth current velocity by up to 5% and the total incoming energy flux by 18%. The narrowed bay mouth also substantially changed the bay's vertical structure of salinity, increasing the stratification strength by 1.7×10-4 s-2. For reductions in the water surface area in the head of the bay, results from idealized bay simulations show that the current velocity throughout the bay, the incoming tidal energy flux, and salinity at the inner bay all decrease with water area reduction. Reclaiming 14% of area in DB, the current velocity reduced by 9% at the bay mouth, but increased in the middle and inner parts. The incoming tidal energy flux also increased as the coastline became more streamlined after reclamation, and the salinity at inner bay decreased. Both reclamation types have substantially altered the water and salt transport processes and increased the water exchange ability of the bay with the adjacent sea.

  1. A comparative study on entrepreneurial attitudes modeled with logistic regression and Bayes nets.

    PubMed

    López Puga, Jorge; García García, Juan

    2012-11-01

    Entrepreneurship research is receiving increasing attention in our context, as entrepreneurs are key social agents involved in economic development. We compare the success of the dichotomic logistic regression model and the Bayes simple classifier to predict entrepreneurship, after manipulating the percentage of missing data and the level of categorization in predictors. A sample of undergraduate university students (N = 1230) completed five scales (motivation, attitude towards business creation, obstacles, deficiencies, and training needs) and we found that each of them predicted different aspects of the tendency to business creation. Additionally, our results show that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is affected by the rate of missing data in both techniques, but logistic regression seems to be more vulnerable when faced with missing data, whereas Bayes nets underperform slightly when categorization has been manipulated. Our study sheds light on the potential entrepreneur profile and we propose to use Bayesian networks as an additional alternative to overcome the weaknesses of logistic regression when missing data are present in applied research.

  2. Edoxaban vs. warfarin in vitamin K antagonist experienced and naive patients with atrial fibrillation†.

    PubMed

    O'Donoghue, Michelle L; Ruff, Christian T; Giugliano, Robert P; Murphy, Sabina A; Grip, Laura T; Mercuri, Michele F; Rutman, Howard; Shi, Minggao; Kania, Grzegorz; Cermak, Ondrej; Braunwald, Eugene; Antman, Elliott M

    2015-06-14

    Edoxaban is an oral, once-daily factor Xa inhibitor that is non-inferior to well-managed warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolic events (SEEs). We examined the efficacy and safety of edoxaban vs. warfarin in patients who were vitamin K antagonist (VKA) naive or experienced. ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 randomized 21 105 patients with AF at moderate-to-high risk of stroke to once-daily edoxaban vs. warfarin. Subjects were followed for a median of 2.8 years. The primary efficacy endpoint was stroke or SEE. As a pre-specified subgroup, we analysed outcomes for those with or without prior VKA experience (>60 consecutive days). Higher-dose edoxaban significantly reduced the risk of stroke or SEE in patients who were VKA naive [hazard ratio (HR) 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.90] and was similar to warfarin in the VKA experienced (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.82-1.24; P interaction = 0.028). Lower-dose edoxaban was similar to warfarin for stroke or SEE prevention in patients who were VKA naive (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.73-1.15), but was inferior to warfarin in those who were VKA experienced (HR 1.31, 95% 1.08-1.60; P interaction = 0.019). Both higher-dose and lower-dose edoxaban regimens significantly reduced the risk of major bleeding regardless of prior VKA experience (P interaction = 0.90 and 0.71, respectively). In patients with AF, edoxaban appeared to demonstrate greater efficacy compared with warfarin in patients who were VKA naive than VKA experienced. Edoxaban significantly reduced major bleeding compared with warfarin regardless of prior VKA exposure. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Oral immunisation of naive and primed animals with transgenic potato tubers expressing LT-B.

    PubMed

    Lauterslager, T G; Florack, D E; van der Wal, T J; Molthoff, J W; Langeveld, J P; Bosch, D; Boersma, W J; Hilgers, L A

    2001-03-21

    The efficacy of edible vaccines produced in potato tubers was examined in mice. Transgenic plants were developed by Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformation. The antigen selected was the non-toxic B subunit of the Escherichia coli enterotoxin (recLT-B). A synthetic gene coding for recLT-B was made and optimised for expression in potato tubers and accumulation in the endoplasmic reticulum. Introduction of this gene under control of the tuber-specific patatin promoter in potato plants resulted in the production of functional, i.e. Gm1-binding, recLT-B pentamers in tubers. Selected tubers containing about 13 microg of recLT-B per gram fresh weight were used for immunisation. Subcutaneous immunisation with an extract of recLT-B tubers yielded high antibody titres in serum that were similar to those obtained with bacterial recLT-B. The efficacy of oral administration of recLT-B tubers was determined by measuring mucosal and systemic immune responses in naive and primed mice. Animals were primed by subcutaneous injection of an extract of recLT-B tuber plus adjuvant. Naive and primed mice were fed 5 g of tubers ( approximately 65 microg of recLT-B) or were intubated intragastrically with 0.4 ml of tuber extract ( approximately 2 microg of recLT-B). In naive mice, feeding recLT-B tubers or intubation of tuber extract did not induce detectable anti-LT antibody titres. In primed animals, however, oral immunisation resulted in significant anti-LT IgA antibody responses in serum and faeces. Intragastric intubation of tuber extract revealed higher responses than feeding of tubers. These results indicate clearly that functional recLT-B can be produced in potato tubers, that this recombinant protein is immunogenic and that oral administration thereof elicits both systemic and local IgA responses in parentally primed, but not naive, animals.

  4. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity aremore » capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.« less

  5. 78 FR 38580 - Special Local Regulation; Tall Ships Celebration Bay City, Bay City, MI

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-27

    ...-AA08 Special Local Regulation; Tall Ships Celebration Bay City, Bay City, MI AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... regulatory act for the celebration specific to Bay City, MI, the Coast Guard recently published a separate... various events throughout the Great Lakes this summer, to include the Tall Ships Celebration Bay City...

  6. Comparing two Bayes methods based on the free energy functions in Bernoulli mixtures.

    PubMed

    Yamazaki, Keisuke; Kaji, Daisuke

    2013-08-01

    Hierarchical learning models are ubiquitously employed in information science and data engineering. The structure makes the posterior distribution complicated in the Bayes method. Then, the prediction including construction of the posterior is not tractable though advantages of the method are empirically well known. The variational Bayes method is widely used as an approximation method for application; it has the tractable posterior on the basis of the variational free energy function. The asymptotic behavior has been studied in many hierarchical models and a phase transition is observed. The exact form of the asymptotic variational Bayes energy is derived in Bernoulli mixture models and the phase diagram shows that there are three types of parameter learning. However, the approximation accuracy or interpretation of the transition point has not been clarified yet. The present paper precisely analyzes the Bayes free energy function of the Bernoulli mixtures. Comparing free energy functions in these two Bayes methods, we can determine the approximation accuracy and elucidate behavior of the parameter learning. Our results claim that the Bayes free energy has the same learning types while the transition points are different. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2012-01-01

    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  8. Naive and effector B-cell subtypes are increased in chronic rhinosinusitis with polyps

    PubMed Central

    Miljkovic, Dijana; Psaltis, Alkis; Wormald, Peter-John

    2018-01-01

    Background: Recent studies demonstrated that B cells and their chemoattractants are elevated in the nasal mucosa of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) with nasal polyposis (CRSwNP). However, the presence of naive B cells and of plasmablasts and memory B-cell subsets in the mucosa and periphery of the same patient with CRS is yet to be characterized. Objective: Here we sought to quantify naive, plasmablasts, and memory B cells in mucosal tissue and peripheral blood of patients with CRSwNP, patients with CRS without nasal polyps (CRSsNP), and control patients. Methods: Polyps, mucosa, and peripheral blood samples were prospectively collected from the patients with CRS and from the non-CRS controls. We used flow cytometry to distinguish among naive, plasmablast, and memory B cells in sinus tissue and peripheral blood. Results: A total of 45 patients were recruited for the study. The patients with CRSwNP had significantly increased mucosal B-cell numbers versus the controls (3.39 ± 4.05% versus 0.39 ± 1.05% of live cells; p < 0.01, Kruskal-Wallis test), which included naive B cells (0.61 ± 0.94 versus 0.11 ± 0.24% of live cells; p < 0.03, Kruskal-Wallis test), plasmablasts (0.06 ± 0.26 versus 0.00 ± 0.00% of live cells; p < 0.055, Kruskal-Wallis test), and memory B cells (0.62 ± 1.26 versus 0.05 ± 0.15% of live cells; p < 0.02, Kruskal-Wallis test). Conclusion: Our study identified increased frequencies of different B-cell subtypes in the mucosa of patients with CRSwNP but not in the peripheral blood. We also found that patients with CRSwNP had significantly increased B-cell subtypes compared with the patients with CRSsNP and the controls. These results implied a potential role for mucosal B cells in the ongoing inflammation in patients with CRSwNP. PMID:29336281

  9. Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Using a GA-Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, D. E.; Rajkumar, T.

    2002-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Suisan Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Suisan Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located along the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay / Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with DSM2 is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple gauging stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Suisan Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the Bay-Delta is strongly tidally driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects

  10. Seafloor geomorphology of western Antarctic Peninsula bays: a signature of ice flow behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz, Yuribia P.; Wellner, Julia S.

    2018-01-01

    Glacial geomorphology is used in Antarctica to reconstruct ice advance during the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent retreat across the continental shelf. Analogous geomorphic assemblages are found in glaciated fjords and are used to interpret the glacial history and glacial dynamics in those areas. In addition, understanding the distribution of submarine landforms in bays and the local controls exerted on ice flow can help improve numerical models by providing constraints through these drainage areas. We present multibeam swath bathymetry from several bays in the South Shetland Islands and the western Antarctic Peninsula. The submarine landforms are described and interpreted in detail. A schematic model was developed showing the features found in the bays: from glacial lineations and moraines in the inner bay to grounding zone wedges and drumlinoid features in the middle bay and streamlined features and meltwater channels in the outer bay areas. In addition, we analysed local variables in the bays and observed the following: (1) the number of landforms found in the bays scales to the size of the bay, but the geometry of the bays dictates the types of features that form; specifically, we observe a correlation between the bay width and the number of transverse features present in the bays. (2) The smaller seafloor features are present only in the smaller glacial systems, indicating that short-lived atmospheric and oceanographic fluctuations, responsible for the formation of these landforms, are only recorded in these smaller systems. (3) Meltwater channels are abundant on the seafloor, but some are subglacial, carved in bedrock, and some are modern erosional features, carved on soft sediment. Lastly, based on geomorphological evidence, we propose the features found in some of the proximal bay areas were formed during a recent glacial advance, likely the Little Ice Age.

  11. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  12. Allosteric MEK1/2 Inhibitor Refametinib (BAY 86-9766) in Combination with Sorafenib Exhibits Antitumor Activity in Preclinical Murine and Rat Models of Hepatocellular Carcinoma12

    PubMed Central

    Schmieder, Roberta; Puehler, Florian; Neuhaus, Roland; Kissel, Maria; Adjei, Alex A; Miner, Jeffrey N; Mumberg, Dominik; Ziegelbauer, Karl; Scholz, Arne

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objectives of the study were to evaluate the allosteric mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK) inhibitor BAY 86-9766 in monotherapy and in combination with sorafenib in orthotopic and subcutaneous hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) models with different underlying etiologies in two species. DESIGN: Antiproliferative potential of BAY 86-9766 and synergistic effects with sorafenib were studied in several HCC cell lines. Relevant pathway signaling was studied in MH3924a cells. For in vivo testing, the HCC cells were implanted subcutaneously or orthotopically. Survival and mode of action (MoA) were analyzed. RESULTS: BAY 86-9766 exhibited potent antiproliferative activity in HCC cell lines with half-maximal inhibitory concentration values ranging from 33 to 762 nM. BAY 86-9766 was strongly synergistic with sorafenib in suppressing tumor cell proliferation and inhibiting phosphorylation of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK). BAY 86-9766 prolonged survival in Hep3B xenografts, murine Hepa129 allografts, and MH3924A rat allografts. Additionally, tumor growth, ascites formation, and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels were reduced. Synergistic effects in combination with sorafenib were shown in Huh-7, Hep3B xenografts, and MH3924A allografts. On the signaling pathway level, the combination of BAY 86-9766 and sorafenib led to inhibition of the upregulatory feedback loop toward MEK phosphorylation observed after BAY 86-9766 monotreatment. With regard to the underlying MoA, inhibition of ERK phosphorylation, tumor cell proliferation, and microvessel density was observed in vivo. CONCLUSION: BAY 86-9766 shows potent single-agent antitumor activity and acts synergistically in combination with sorafenib in preclinical HCC models. These results support the ongoing clinical development of BAY 86-9766 and sorafenib in advanced HCC. PMID:24204195

  13. A hydrologic network supporting spatially referenced regression modeling in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brakebill, J.W.; Preston, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a methodology for statistically relating nutrient sources and land-surface characteristics to nutrient loads of streams. The methodology is referred to as SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW), and relates measured stream nutrient loads to nutrient sources using nonlinear statistical regression models. A spatially detailed digital hydrologic network of stream reaches, stream-reach characteristics such as mean streamflow, water velocity, reach length, and travel time, and their associated watersheds supports the regression models. This network serves as the primary framework for spatially referencing potential nutrient source information such as atmospheric deposition, septic systems, point-sources, land use, land cover, and agricultural sources and land-surface characteristics such as land use, land cover, average-annual precipitation and temperature, slope, and soil permeability. In the Chesapeake Bay watershed that covers parts of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington D.C., SPARROW was used to generate models estimating loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus representing 1987 and 1992 land-surface conditions. The 1987 models used a hydrologic network derived from an enhanced version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's digital River Reach File, and course resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). A new hydrologic network was created to support the 1992 models by generating stream reaches representing surface-water pathways defined by flow direction and flow accumulation algorithms from higher resolution DEMs. On a reach-by-reach basis, stream reach characteristics essential to the modeling were transferred to the newly generated pathways or reaches from the enhanced River Reach File used to support the 1987 models. To complete the new network, watersheds for each reach were generated using the direction of surface-water flow derived

  14. James Bay

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-17

    article title:  Hudson Bay and James Bay, Canada   ... which scatters more light in the backward direction. This example illustrates how multi-angle viewing can distinguish physical structures ... MD. The MISR data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center Atmospheric Science Data Center in Hampton, VA. Image ...

  15. Influence of orographically steered winds on Mutsu Bay surface currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Kawamura, Hiroshi

    2005-09-01

    Effects of spatially dependent sea surface wind field on currents in Mutsu Bay, which is located at the northern end of Japanese Honshu Island, are investigated using winds derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images and a numerical model. A characteristic wind pattern over the bay was evidenced from analysis of 118 SAR images and coincided with in situ observations. Wind is topographically steered with easterly winds entering the bay through the terrestrial gap and stronger wind blowing over the central water toward its mouth. Nearshore winds are weaker due to terrestrial blockages. Using the Princeton Ocean Model, we investigated currents forced by the observed spatially dependent wind field. The predicted current pattern agrees well with available observations. For a uniform wind field of equal magnitude and average direction, the circulation pattern departs from observations demonstrating that vorticity input due to spatially dependent wind stress is essential in generation of the wind-driven current in Mutsu Bay.

  16. Development of Land Segmentation, Stream-Reach Network, and Watersheds in Support of Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) Modeling, Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and Adjacent Parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martucci, Sarah K.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Hopkins, Katherine J.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, Maryland Department of the Environment, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are collaborating on the Chesapeake Bay Regional Watershed Model, using Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN to simulate streamflow and concentrations and loads of nutrients and sediment to Chesapeake Bay. The model will be used to provide information for resource managers. In order to establish a framework for model simulation, digital spatial datasets were created defining the discretization of the model region (including the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as the adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia outside the watershed) into land segments, a stream-reach network, and associated watersheds. Land segmentation was based on county boundaries represented by a 1:100,000-scale digital dataset. Fifty of the 254 counties and incorporated cities in the model region were divided on the basis of physiography and topography, producing a total of 309 land segments. The stream-reach network for the Chesapeake Bay watershed part of the model region was based on the U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model stream-reach network. Because that network was created only for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the rest of the model region uses a 1:500,000-scale stream-reach network. Streams with mean annual streamflow of less than 100 cubic feet per second were excluded based on attributes from the dataset. Additional changes were made to enhance the data and to allow for inclusion of stream reaches with monitoring data that were not part of the original network. Thirty-meter-resolution Digital Elevation Model data were used to delineate watersheds for each

  17. The East Bay Center for the Performing Arts: A Model for Community-Based Multicultural Arts Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engdahl, Eric

    2012-01-01

    This article highlights the East Bay Center for the Performing Arts in Richmond, California, which is one successful model of a community-based arts education organization whose central mission is to provide these deep art-rich experiences for students from low socio-economic status (SES) communities, who in this instance are predominately African…

  18. Wind effect on salt transport variability in the Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandeep, K. K.; Pant, V.

    2017-12-01

    The Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits large spatial variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) pattern caused by its unique hydrological, meteorological and oceanographical characteristics. This SSS variability is largely controlled by the seasonally reversing monsoon winds and the associated currents. Further, the BoB receives substantial freshwater inputs through excess precipitation over evaporation and river discharge. Rivers like Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari, and Irawwady discharge annually a freshwater volume in range between 1.5 x 1012 and 1.83 x 1013 m3 into the bay. A major volume of this freshwater input to the bay occurs during the southwest monsoon (June-September) period. In the present study, a relative role of winds in the SSS variability in the bay is investigated by using an eddy-resolving three dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) numerical model. The model is configured with realistic bathymetry, coastline of study region and forced with daily climatology of atmospheric variables. River discharges from the major rivers are distributed in the model grid points representing their respective geographic locations. Salt transport estimate from the model simulation for realistic case are compared with the standard reference datasets. Further, different experiments were carried out with idealized surface wind forcing representing the normal, low, high, and very high wind speed conditions in the bay while retaining the realistic daily varying directions for all the cases. The experimental simulations exhibit distinct dispersal patterns of the freshwater plume and SSS in different experiments in response to the idealized winds. Comparison of the meridional and zonal surface salt transport estimated for each experiment showed strong seasonality with varying magnitude in the bay with a maximum spatial and temporal variability in the western and northern parts of the BoB.

  19. Multi-Model Validation of Currents in the Chesapeake Bay Region in June 2010

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-01

    host “ DaVinci ” at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO). The same model configuration also took approximately 1 hr of wall clock time for a 72-hr...comparable to the performance Navy DSRC host DaVinci . Products of water level and horizontal current maps as well as station time series, identical to...DSRC host DaVinci and required approximately 5 hrs of wall-clock time for 72-hr forecasts, including data Figure 10. The Chesapeake Bay Delft3D

  20. The Effect of Naive Ideas on Students' Reasoning about Electricity and Magnetism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    Traditional multiple-choice concept inventories measure students' critical conceptual understanding and are designed to reveal students' naive or alternate ideas. The overall scores, however, give little information about the state of students' knowledge and the consistency of reasoning. This study investigates whether students have consistent…

  1. Application of an unstructured 3D finite volume numerical model to flows and salinity dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martyr-Koller, R.C.; Kernkamp, H.W.J.; Van Dam, Anne A.; Mick van der Wegen,; Lucas, Lisa; Knowles, N.; Jaffe, B.; Fregoso, T.A.

    2017-01-01

    A linked modeling approach has been undertaken to understand the impacts of climate and infrastructure on aquatic ecology and water quality in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region. The Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling suite is used in this effort for its 3D hydrodynamics, salinity, temperature and sediment dynamics, phytoplankton and water-quality coupling infrastructure, and linkage to a habitat suitability model. The hydrodynamic model component of the suite is D-Flow FM, a new 3D unstructured finite-volume model based on the Delft3D model. In this paper, D-Flow FM is applied to the San Francisco Bay-Delta to investigate tidal, seasonal and annual dynamics of water levels, river flows and salinity under historical environmental and infrastructural conditions. The model is driven by historical winds, tides, ocean salinity, and river flows, and includes federal, state, and local freshwater withdrawals, and regional gate and barrier operations. The model is calibrated over a 9-month period, and subsequently validated for water levels, flows, and 3D salinity dynamics over a 2 year period.Model performance was quantified using several model assessment metrics and visualized through target diagrams. These metrics indicate that the model accurately estimated water levels, flows, and salinity over wide-ranging tidal and fluvial conditions, and the model can be used to investigate detailed circulation and salinity patterns throughout the Bay-Delta. The hydrodynamics produced through this effort will be used to drive affiliated sediment, phytoplankton, and contaminant hindcast efforts and habitat suitability assessments for fish and bivalves. The modeling framework applied here will serve as a baseline to ultimately shed light on potential ecosystem change over the current century.

  2. Application of an unstructured 3D finite volume numerical model to flows and salinity dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martyr-Koller, R. C.; Kernkamp, H. W. J.; van Dam, A.; van der Wegen, M.; Lucas, L. V.; Knowles, N.; Jaffe, B.; Fregoso, T. A.

    2017-06-01

    A linked modeling approach has been undertaken to understand the impacts of climate and infrastructure on aquatic ecology and water quality in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region. The Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling suite is used in this effort for its 3D hydrodynamics, salinity, temperature and sediment dynamics, phytoplankton and water-quality coupling infrastructure, and linkage to a habitat suitability model. The hydrodynamic model component of the suite is D-Flow FM, a new 3D unstructured finite-volume model based on the Delft3D model. In this paper, D-Flow FM is applied to the San Francisco Bay-Delta to investigate tidal, seasonal and annual dynamics of water levels, river flows and salinity under historical environmental and infrastructural conditions. The model is driven by historical winds, tides, ocean salinity, and river flows, and includes federal, state, and local freshwater withdrawals, and regional gate and barrier operations. The model is calibrated over a 9-month period, and subsequently validated for water levels, flows, and 3D salinity dynamics over a 2 year period. Model performance was quantified using several model assessment metrics and visualized through target diagrams. These metrics indicate that the model accurately estimated water levels, flows, and salinity over wide-ranging tidal and fluvial conditions, and the model can be used to investigate detailed circulation and salinity patterns throughout the Bay-Delta. The hydrodynamics produced through this effort will be used to drive affiliated sediment, phytoplankton, and contaminant hindcast efforts and habitat suitability assessments for fish and bivalves. The modeling framework applied here will serve as a baseline to ultimately shed light on potential ecosystem change over the current century.

  3. CD72 ligation regulates defective naive newborn B cell responses.

    PubMed

    Howard, L M; Reen, D J

    1997-02-01

    The biological basis for reduced Ig production by naive newborn B cells compared to adult peripheral blood B cells is not fully understood. In a Con A + IL-2 T cell-dependent system using "competent" adult T cells, adult B cells produced large amounts of IgM, IgG, and IgA, while cord B cells were restricted to low levels of only IgM production. Cord B cell activation was also diminished. The contribution of specific B-T cell contact-mediated events to the diminished cord B cell response in this system, using mAbs to CD40, CD28, CD80, and CD72, were investigated, as well as regulation of B cell Ig production by cytokines. alphaCD72 ligation increased cord B cell activation and IgM production, but did not affect adult B cells. Blocking alphaCD40 mAb inhibited cord B cell Ig production completely, but only partly inhibited adult B cell Ig production even at high concentration, suggesting a greater sensitivity of cord B cells to disruption of the CD40-CD40L interaction. Addition of IL-10 did not increase cord B cell Ig production, while adult B cell Ig production was increased. However, combined addition of IL-10 and alphaCD72 significantly increased cord B cell Ig production over that in the presence of either alphaCD72 or IL-10 alone, but had no effect on adult B cells over that of IL-10 alone. These data suggest that the diminished T cell-dependent response of cord B cells is due to reduced or absent CD72 ligation. CD72 ligation plays an important role in the induction of primary responses by naive B cells. CD72 modulation of naive B cell sensitivity to IL-10 stimulation may have implications in the induction of class switch, which is deficient in newborn B cells. Since all T cells express CD5 constitutively, these data also suggest the existence of another ligand for CD72.

  4. The dynamics of İzmir Bay under the effects of wind and thermohaline forces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayın, Erdem; Eronat, Canan

    2018-04-01

    The dominant circulation pattern of İzmir Bay on the Aegean Sea coast of Turkey is studied taking into consideration the influence of wind and thermohaline forces. İzmir Bay is discussed by subdividing the bay into outer, middle and inner areas. Wind is the most important driving force in the İzmir coastal area. There are also thermohaline forces due to the existence of water types of different physical properties in the bay. In contrast to the two-layer stratification during summer, a homogeneous water column exists in winter. The free surface version of the Princeton model (Killworth's 3-D general circulation model) is applied, with the input data obtained through the measurements made by the research vessel K. Piri Reis. As a result of the simulations with artificial wind, the strong consistent wind generates circulation patterns independent of the seasonal stratification in the bay. Wind-driven circulation causes cyclonic or anticyclonic movements in the middle bay where the distinct İzmir Bay Water (IBW) forms. Cyclonic movement takes place under the influence of southerly and westerly winds. On the other hand, northerly and easterly winds cause an anticyclonic movement in the middle bay. The outer and inner bay also have the wind-driven recirculation patterns expected.

  5. Children's Naive Theories of Intelligence Influence Their Metacognitive Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miele, David B.; Son, Lisa K.; Metcalfe, Janet

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the metacognitive judgments adults infer from their experiences of encoding effort vary in accordance with their naive theories of intelligence. To determine whether this finding extends to elementary schoolchildren, a study was conducted in which 27 third graders (M[subscript age] = 8.27) and 24 fifth graders…

  6. Estuarine Sediment Budgets for Chesapeake Bay Tributaries

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    developed and used in this study are transferable to other systems. Sediment loads and sediment budgets from other rivers in the Bay would help clarify the...related in a mass balance equation. Load is mass per unit of time. This study used metric tons per year (Mt/yr), where a metric ton is 1,000 kg...Figure 1 displays the conceptual model of the sediment budget for Chesapeake Bay estuaries. Study Areas. The York and Patuxent Rivers were chosen to

  7. Assessing past and present P Retention in Sediments in Lake Ontario (Bay of Quinte) by Reaction-Transport Diagenetic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doan, Phuong; Berry, Sandra; Markovic, Stefan; Watson, Sue; Mugalingam, Shan; Dittrich, Maria

    2016-04-01

    Phosphorus (P) is an important macronutrient that can limit aquatic primary production and the risk of harmful algal blooms. Although there is considerable evidence that P release from sediments can represent a significant source of P and burial in sediments returns P to the geological sink; these processes have been poorly characterised. In this study, we applied a non-steady state reactive transport diagenetic model to gain insights into the dynamics of phosphorus binding forms in sediments and the phosphorus cycling of the Bay of Quinte, an embayment of Lake Ontario, Canada. The three basins of the bay (Belleville, Hay Bay and Napanee) that we investigated had differences in their phosphorus binding forms and phosphorus release, reflecting the distinct spatial temporal patterns of land use and urbanization levels in the watershed. Sediment cores from the three stations were collected during summer and under ice cover in 2013-14. Oxygen, pH and redox potential were monitored by microsensors; porewater and sediment solid matter were analyzed for P content, and a sequential extraction was used to analyze P binding forms. In the reaction-transport model, total phosphorus was divided into adsorbed phosphorus, phosphorus bound with aluminium, organic phosphorus, redox sensitive and apatite phosphorus. Using the fluxes of organic and inorganic matter as dynamic boundary conditions, we simulated the depth profiles of solute and solid components. The model closely reproduced the fractionation data of phosphorus binding forms and soluble reactive phosphorus. The past and present P fluxes were calculated and estimated; they related to geochemical conditions, and P binding forms in sediments. Our results show that P release from sediments is dominated by the redox-sentive P fraction accounting for higher percentage at Napanee station. The main P binding form that can be immobilized through diagenesis is apatite P contributing highest P retention at HayBay station. The mass

  8. Recent thymic emigrants and mature naive T cells exhibit differential DNA methylation at key cytokine loci.

    PubMed

    Berkley, Amy M; Hendricks, Deborah W; Simmons, Kalynn B; Fink, Pamela J

    2013-06-15

    Recent thymic emigrants (RTEs) are the youngest T cells in the lymphoid periphery and exhibit phenotypic and functional characteristics distinct from those of their more mature counterparts in the naive peripheral T cell pool. We show in this study that the Il2 and Il4 promoter regions of naive CD4(+) RTEs are characterized by site-specific hypermethylation compared with those of both mature naive (MN) T cells and the thymocyte precursors of RTEs. Thus, RTEs do not merely occupy a midpoint between the thymus and the mature T cell pool, but represent a distinct transitional T cell population. Furthermore, RTEs and MN T cells exhibit distinct CpG DNA methylation patterns both before and after activation. Compared with MN T cells, RTEs express higher levels of several enzymes that modify DNA methylation, and inhibiting methylation during culture allows RTEs to reach MN T cell levels of cytokine production. Collectively, these data suggest that the functional differences that distinguish RTEs from MN T cells are influenced by epigenetic mechanisms and provide clues to a mechanistic basis for postthymic maturation.

  9. A Mass Balance for Mercury in the San Francisco Bay Area

    PubMed Central

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Mackay, Don

    2008-01-01

    We develop and illustrate a general regional multi-species model that describes the fate and transport of mercury in three forms, elemental, divalent, and methylated, in a generic regional environment including air, soil, vegetation, water and sediment. The objectives of the model are to describes the fate of the three forms of mercury in the environment and determine the dominant physical sinks that remove mercury from the system. Chemical transformations between the three groups of mercury species are modeled by assuming constant ratios of species concentrations in individual environmental media. We illustrate and evaluate the model with an application to describe the fate and transport of mercury in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. The model successfully rationalizes the identified sources with observed concentrations of total mercury and methyl mercury in the San Francisco Bay Estuary. The mass balance provided by the model indicates that continental and global background sources control mercury concentrations in the atmosphere but loadings to water in the San Francisco Bay estuary are dominated by runoff from the Central Valley catchment and re-mobilization of contaminated sediments deposited during past mining activities. The model suggests that the response time of mercury concentrations in the San Francisco Bay estuary to changes in loadings is long, of the order of 50 years. PMID:16190232

  10. Evaluating Tidal Marsh Sustainability in the Face of Sea-Level Rise: A Hybrid Modeling Approach Applied to San Francisco Bay

    PubMed Central

    Stralberg, Diana; Brennan, Matthew; Callaway, John C.; Wood, Julian K.; Schile, Lisa M.; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Kelly, Maggi; Parker, V. Thomas; Crooks, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Background Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities. Methodology Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios. Principal Findings Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (−0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats. Conclusions/Significance Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and

  11. Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamilton, David B.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Staley, Michael J.

    1982-01-01

    During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human

  12. Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

  13. Combined SEM/AVS and attenuation of concentration models for the assessment of bioavailability and mobility of metals in sediments of Sepetiba Bay (SE Brazil).

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Andreza Portella; Figueiredo, Ana Maria Graciano; dos Santos, José Osman; Dantas, Elizabeth; Cotrim, Marycel Elena Barboza; Figueira, Rubens Cesar Lopes; Silva Filho, Emmanoel V; Wasserman, Julio Cesar

    2013-03-15

    This study proposes a new methodology to study contamination, bioavailability and mobility of metals (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) using chemical and geostatistics approaches in marine sediments of Sepetiba Bay (SE Brazil). The chemical model of SEM (simultaneously extracted metals)/AVS (acid volatile sulfides) ratio uses a technique of cold acid extraction of metals to evaluate their bioavailability, and the geostatistical model of attenuation of concentrations estimates the mobility of metals. By coupling the two it was observed that Sepetiba Port, the urban area of Sepetiba and the riverine discharges may constitute potential sources of metals to Sepetiba Bay. The metals are concentrated in the NE area of the bay, where they tend to have their lowest mobility, as shown by the attenuation model, and are not bioavailable, as they tend to associate with sulfide and organic matter originated in the mangrove forests of nearby Guaratiba area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. 76 FR 38020 - Safety Zone; Bay Point Fireworks, Bay Point Marina; Marblehead, OH

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-29

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Bay Point Fireworks, Bay Point Marina; Marblehead, OH AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... from portions of Lake Erie for the Bay Point Fireworks. This temporary safety zone is necessary to protect spectators and vessels from the hazards associated with fireworks displays. DATES: This regulation...

  15. 78 FR 30765 - Safety Zone; Bay Village Independence Day Fireworks, Lake Erie, Bay Village, OH

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-23

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Bay Village Independence Day Fireworks, Lake Erie, Bay Village, OH AGENCY: Coast... zone on Lake Erie, Bay Village, OH. This safety zone is intended to restrict vessels from a portion of Lake Erie during the Bay Village Independence Day Fireworks display. This temporary safety zone is...

  16. 77 FR 39420 - Safety Zone; Bay Village Independence Day Fireworks, Lake Erie, Bay Village, OH

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-03

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Bay Village Independence Day Fireworks, Lake Erie, Bay Village, OH AGENCY: Coast... zone on Lake Erie, Bay Village, OH. This safety zone is intended to restrict vessels from a portion of Lake Erie during the Bay Village Independence Day Fireworks display. This temporary safety zone is...

  17. 75 FR 54771 - Safety Zone; Thunder on the Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Buckroe Beach Park, Hampton, VA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-09

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Thunder on the Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Buckroe Beach Park, Hampton, VA AGENCY: Coast... safety zone on the navigable waters of Chesapeake Bay in Hampton, VA in support of the Thunder on the Bay.... 0 2. Add Sec. 165.T05-0755 to read as follows: Sec. 165.T05-0755 Safety Zone; Thunder on the Bay...

  18. Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

    2011-12-01

    Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea

  19. Integrating Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Operational Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdman, Liv; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Kim, Jungho; Cifelli, Rob; Johnson, Lynn

    2016-04-01

    The nine counties that make up the San Francisco Bay area are home to 7.5 million people and these communties are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland creeks that drain to the bay. A forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers is necessary for predicting flooding in this complex urban environment. The U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS) and National Weather Service (NWS) are developing a state-of-the-art flooding forecast model for the San Francisco Bay area that will predict watershed and ocean-based flooding up to 72 hours in advance of an approaching storm. The model framework for flood forecasts is based on the USGS-developed Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) that was applied to San Francisco Bay under the Our Coast Our Future project. For this application, we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model, and tributary discharges from the Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM), developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development. The flooding extent is determined by overlaying the resulting water levels onto a recently completed 2-m digital elevation model of the study area which best resolves the extensive levee and tidal marsh systems in the region. Here we present initial pilot results of hindcast winter storms in January 2010 and December 2012, where the flooding is driven by oceanic and fluvial factors respectively. We also demonstrate the feasibility of predicting flooding on an operational time scale that incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic forcings.

  20. Verification by remote sensing of an oil slick movement prediction model. [Delaware Bay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klemas, V. (Principal Investigator); Davis, G.; Wang, H.

    1976-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT, aircraft, ships, and air-dropped current drogues were deployed to determine current circulation and to track oil slick movement on four different dates in Delaware Bay. The results were used to verify a predictive model for oil slicks given their size, location, tidal stage (current), weather (wind), and nature of crude. Both LANDSAT satellites provided valuable data on gross circulation patterns and convergent coastal fronts which by capturing oil slicks significantly influence their movement and dispersion.

  1. 77 FR 44140 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal, Sturgeon Bay, WI

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-27

    ... Maple-Oregon Bridges so vehicular traffic congestion would not develop on downtown Sturgeon Bay streets... movement of vehicular traffic in Sturgeon Bay. The Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal is approximately 8.6 miles long... significant increase in vehicular and vessel traffic during the peak tourist and navigation season between...

  2. 75 FR 8297 - Tongass National Forest, Thorne Bay Ranger District, Thorne Bay, AK

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-24

    ..., Thorne Bay, AK AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Cancellation of Notice of intent to prepare an... Roberts, Zone Planner, Thorne Bay Ranger District, Tongass National Forest, P.O. Box 19001, Thorne Bay, AK 99919, telephone: 907-828-3250. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The 47,007-acre Kosciusko Project Area is...

  3. Unscaled Bayes factors for multiple hypothesis testing in microarray experiments.

    PubMed

    Bertolino, Francesco; Cabras, Stefano; Castellanos, Maria Eugenia; Racugno, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Multiple hypothesis testing collects a series of techniques usually based on p-values as a summary of the available evidence from many statistical tests. In hypothesis testing, under a Bayesian perspective, the evidence for a specified hypothesis against an alternative, conditionally on data, is given by the Bayes factor. In this study, we approach multiple hypothesis testing based on both Bayes factors and p-values, regarding multiple hypothesis testing as a multiple model selection problem. To obtain the Bayes factors we assume default priors that are typically improper. In this case, the Bayes factor is usually undetermined due to the ratio of prior pseudo-constants. We show that ignoring prior pseudo-constants leads to unscaled Bayes factor which do not invalidate the inferential procedure in multiple hypothesis testing, because they are used within a comparative scheme. In fact, using partial information from the p-values, we are able to approximate the sampling null distribution of the unscaled Bayes factor and use it within Efron's multiple testing procedure. The simulation study suggests that under normal sampling model and even with small sample sizes, our approach provides false positive and false negative proportions that are less than other common multiple hypothesis testing approaches based only on p-values. The proposed procedure is illustrated in two simulation studies, and the advantages of its use are showed in the analysis of two microarray experiments. © The Author(s) 2011.

  4. Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knowles, Noah

    2009-01-01

    An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify high water levels throughout the bay, a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs and empirical models and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise influences. Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing concern. In the North Bay, wetland survival and developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the bay-ward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face this risk to some degree. For the Bay as a whole, as early as 2050 under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed.

  5. Modification of the vertically generalized production model for the turbid waters of Ariake Bay, southwestern Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathy, S. C.; Ishizaka, J.; Siswanto, E.; Shibata, T.; Mino, Y.

    2012-01-01

    The vertically generalized production model (VGPM), which was designed for open ocean waters ( Behrenfeld and Falkowski, 1997a; henceforth BF), was evaluated using in situ measurements of primary productivity (PP) in the characteristically turbid coastal waters of Ariake Bay, southwestern Japan, to develop a regionally modified version of the model. The euphotic depth ( Z eu)-integrated PP (IPP) calculated from the VGPM using in situ chlorophyll a (Chl a) and sea surface temperature (SST) was significantly overestimated (by factors of 2-3), but 52% of the observed variability was explained. The weak correlation could have partially resulted from overestimations by the sub-models embedded in the original VGPM model for estimation of Z eu ( Morel and Berthon, 1989; henceforth MB) and the optimal Chl a-normalized PP ( poptB). The sub-model estimates of poptB and Z eu with in situpoptB and Z eu showed significant improvement, accounting for 84% of the variability and causing less overestimation. Z eu was the most important parameter influencing the modeled IPP variation in Ariake Bay. Previous research suggested that the Z eu model, which was based on surface Chl a, overestimated in situ Z eu by a factor of 2-3, resulting in weak correlation between the modeled and in situ IPP. The Z eu sub-model was not accurate in the present study area because it was basically developed for clear (case 1) waters. A better estimation of Z eu could be obtained from the in situ remote sensing reflectance ( R rs) using a quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA) in this turbid water ecosystem. Among the parameters of PP models, poptB is conventionally considered the most important. However, in this study poptB was of secondary importance because the contribution of poptB to the variation in modeled IPP was less than the contribution of Z eu. The modeled and in situpoptB were weakly correlated with 50% of the data points that overestimated the in situ values. The estimation of Chl a was improved

  6. Projected 2050 Model Simulations for the Chesapeake Bay Program

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Chesapeake Bay Program as has been tasked with assessing how changes in climate systems are expected to alter key variables and processes within the Watershed in concurrence with land use changes. EPA’s Office of Research and Development will be conducting historic and...

  7. Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodbury, Max A.; Manton, Kenneth G.

    1991-01-01

    An empirical Bayes-maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented for the application of fuzzy partition models in describing high dimensional discrete response data. The model describes individuals in terms of partial membership in multiple latent categories that represent bounded discrete spaces. (SLD)

  8. DEXAMETHASONE IMPLANT FOR DIABETIC MACULAR EDEMA IN NAIVE COMPARED WITH REFRACTORY EYES: The International Retina Group Real-Life 24-Month Multicenter Study. The IRGREL-DEX Study.

    PubMed

    Iglicki, Matias; Busch, Catharina; Zur, Dinah; Okada, Mali; Mariussi, Miriana; Chhablani, Jay Kumar; Cebeci, Zafer; Fraser-Bell, Samantha; Chaikitmongkol, Voraporn; Couturier, Aude; Giancipoli, Ermete; Lupidi, Marco; Rodríguez-Valdés, Patricio J; Rehak, Matus; Fung, Adrian Tien-Chin; Goldstein, Michaella; Loewenstein, Anat

    2018-04-24

    To investigate efficacy and safety of repeated dexamethasone (DEX) implants over 24 months, in diabetic macular edema (DME) eyes that were treatment naive compared with eyes refractory to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment, in a real-life environment. This multicenter international retrospective study assessed best-corrected visual acuity and central subfield thickness (CST) of naive and refractory eyes to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections treated with dexamethasone implants. Safety data (intraocular pressure rise and cataract surgery) were recorded. A total of 130 eyes from 125 patients were included. Baseline best-corrected visual acuity and CST were similar for naive (n = 71) and refractory eyes (n = 59). Both groups improved significantly in vision after 24 months (P < 0.001). However, naive eyes gained statistically significantly more vision than refractory eyes (+11.3 ± 10.0 vs. 7.3 ± 2.7 letters, P = 0.01) and were more likely to gain ≥10 letters (OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.19-9.24, P = 0.02). At 6, 12, and 24 months, CST was significantly decreased compared with baseline in both naive and refractory eyes; however, CST was higher in refractory eyes than in naive eyes (CST 279 ± 61 vs. 313 ± 125 μm, P = 0.10). Over a follow-up of 24 months, vision improved in diabetic macular edema eyes after treatment with dexamethasone implants, both in eyes that were treatment naive and eyes refractory to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment; however, improvement was greater in naive eyes.

  9. Modeling selenium bioaccumulation through arthropod food webs in San Francisco Bay, California, USA.

    PubMed

    Schlekat, Christian E; Purkerson, David G; Luoma, Samuel N

    2004-12-01

    Trophic transfer is the main process by which upper trophic level wildlife are exposed to selenium. Transfers through lower levels of a predator's food web thus can be instrumental in determining the threat of selenium in an ecosystem. Little is known about Se transfer through pelagic, zooplankton-based food webs in San Francisco Bay ([SFB], CA, USA), which serve as an energy source for important predators such as striped bass: A dynamic multipathway bioaccumulation model was used to model Se transfer from phytoplankton to pelagic copepods to carnivorous mysids (Neomysis mercedis). Uptake rates of dissolved Se, depuration rates, and assimilation efficiencies (AE) for the model were determined for copepods and mysids in the laboratory. Small (73-250 microm) and large (250-500 microm) herbivorous zooplankton collected from SFB (Oithona/Limnoithona and Acartia sp.) assimilated Se with similar efficiencies (41-52%) from phytoplankton. Mysids assimilated 73% of Se from small herbivorous zooplankton; Se AE was significantly lower (61%) than larger herbivorous zooplankton. Selenium depuration rates were high for both zooplankton and mysids (12-25% d(-1)), especially compared to bivalves (2-3% d(-1)). The model predicted steady state Se concentrations in mysids similar to those observed in the field. The predicted concentration range (1.5-5.4 microg g(-1)) was lower than concentrations of 4.5 to 24 microg g(-1) observed in bivalves from the bay. Differences in efflux between mysids and bivalves were the best explanation for the differences in uptake. The results suggest that the risk of selenium toxicity to predators feeding on N. mercedis would be less than the risk to predators feeding on bivalves. Management of selenium contamination should include food webs analyses to focus on the most important exposure pathways identified for a given watershed.

  10. Modeling selenium bioaccumulation through arthropod food webs in San Francisco Bay, California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schlekat, C.E.; Purkerson, D.G.; Luoma, S.N.

    2004-01-01

    Trophic transfer is the main process by which upper trophic level wildlife are exposed to selenium. Transfers through lower levels of a predator's food web thus can be instrumental in determining the threat of selenium in an ecosystem. Little is known about Se transfer through pelagic, zooplankton-based food webs in San Francisco Bay ([SFB], CA, USA), which serve as an energy source for important predators such as striped bass. A dynamic multipathway bioaccumulation model was used to model Se transfer from phytoplankton to pelagic copepods to carnivorous mysids (Neomysis mercedis). Uptake rates of dissolved Se, depuration rates, and assimilation efficiencies (AE) for the model were determined for copepods and mysids in the laboratory. Small (73-250 ??m) and large (250-500 ??m) herbivorous zooplankton collected from SFB (Oithona/Limnoithona and Acartia sp.) assimilated Se with similar efficiencies (41-52%) from phytoplankton. Mysids assimilated 73% of Se from small herbivorous zooplankton; Se AE was significantly lower (61%) than larger herbivorous zooplankton. Selenium depuration rates were high for both zooplankton and mysids (12-25% d-1), especially compared to bivalves (2-3% d-1). The model predicted steady state Se concentrations in mysids similar to those observed in the field. The predicted concentration range (1.5-5.4 ??g g -1) was lower than concentrations of 4.5 to 24 ??g g-1 observed in bivalves from the bay. Differences in efflux between mysids and bivalves were the best explanation for the differences in uptake. The results suggest that the risk of selenium toxicity to predators feeding on N. mercedis would be less than the risk to predators feeding on bivalves. Management of selenium contamination should include food webs analyses to focus on the most important exposure pathways identified for a given watershed.

  11. Importance of Dissolved Organic Nitrogen to Water Quality in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    This preliminary analysis of the importance of the dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool in Narragansett Bay is being conducted as part of a five-year study of Narragansett Bay and its watershed. This larger study includes water quality and ecological modeling components that foc...

  12. Bayesian inference for psychology, part IV: parameter estimation and Bayes factors.

    PubMed

    Rouder, Jeffrey N; Haaf, Julia M; Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    2018-02-01

    In the psychological literature, there are two seemingly different approaches to inference: that from estimation of posterior intervals and that from Bayes factors. We provide an overview of each method and show that a salient difference is the choice of models. The two approaches as commonly practiced can be unified with a certain model specification, now popular in the statistics literature, called spike-and-slab priors. A spike-and-slab prior is a mixture of a null model, the spike, with an effect model, the slab. The estimate of the effect size here is a function of the Bayes factor, showing that estimation and model comparison can be unified. The salient difference is that common Bayes factor approaches provide for privileged consideration of theoretically useful parameter values, such as the value corresponding to the null hypothesis, while estimation approaches do not. Both approaches, either privileging the null or not, are useful depending on the goals of the analyst.

  13. Nicotinic Acid Adenine Dinucleotide Phosphate Plays a Critical Role in Naive and Effector Murine T Cells but Not Natural Regulatory T Cells*

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Ramadan A.; Camick, Christina; Wiles, Katherine; Walseth, Timothy F.; Slama, James T.; Bhattacharya, Sumit; Giovannucci, David R.; Wall, Katherine A.

    2016-01-01

    Nicotinic acid adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NAADP), the most potent Ca2+ mobilizing second messenger discovered to date, has been implicated in Ca2+ signaling in some lymphomas and T cell clones. In contrast, the role of NAADP in Ca2+ signaling or the identity of the Ca2+ stores targeted by NAADP in conventional naive T cells is less clear. In the current study, we demonstrate the importance of NAADP in the generation of Ca2+ signals in murine naive T cells. Combining live-cell imaging methods and a pharmacological approach using the NAADP antagonist Ned-19, we addressed the involvement of NAADP in the generation of Ca2+ signals evoked by TCR stimulation and the role of this signal in downstream physiological end points such as proliferation, cytokine production, and other responses to stimulation. We demonstrated that acidic compartments in addition to the endoplasmic reticulum were the Ca2+ stores that were sensitive to NAADP in naive T cells. NAADP was shown to evoke functionally relevant Ca2+ signals in both naive CD4 and naive CD8 T cells. Furthermore, we examined the role of this signal in the activation, proliferation, and secretion of effector cytokines by Th1, Th2, Th17, and CD8 effector T cells. Overall, NAADP exhibited a similar profile in mediating Ca2+ release in effector T cells as in their counterpart naive T cells and seemed to be equally important for the function of these different subsets of effector T cells. This profile was not observed for natural T regulatory cells. PMID:26728458

  14. Ecological risk assessment of TBT in Ise Bay.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Joji; Yonezawa, Yoshitaka; Nakata, Kisaburo; Horiguchi, Fumio

    2009-02-01

    An ecological risk assessment of tributyltin (TBT) in Ise Bay was conducted using the margin of exposure (MOE) method. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect the survival, growth and reproduction of marine organisms. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Ise Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. Estimated MOEs for marine organisms for 1990 and 2008 were approximately 0.1-2.0 and over 100 respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse effects. The chemical fate model predicts a much longer persistence of TBT in sediments than in the water column. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the harmful effects of TBT on benthic organisms.

  15. Using Bayes' theorem for free energy calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, David M.

    Statistical mechanics is fundamentally based on calculating the probabilities of molecular-scale events. Although Bayes' theorem has generally been recognized as providing key guiding principals for setup and analysis of statistical experiments [83], classical frequentist models still predominate in the world of computational experimentation. As a starting point for widespread application of Bayesian methods in statistical mechanics, we investigate the central quantity of free energies from this perspective. This dissertation thus reviews the basics of Bayes' view of probability theory, and the maximum entropy formulation of statistical mechanics before providing examples of its application to several advanced research areas. We first apply Bayes' theorem to a multinomial counting problem in order to determine inner shell and hard sphere solvation free energy components of Quasi-Chemical Theory [140]. We proceed to consider the general problem of free energy calculations from samples of interaction energy distributions. From there, we turn to spline-based estimation of the potential of mean force [142], and empirical modeling of observed dynamics using integrator matching. The results of this research are expected to advance the state of the art in coarse-graining methods, as they allow a systematic connection from high-resolution (atomic) to low-resolution (coarse) structure and dynamics. In total, our work on these problems constitutes a critical starting point for further application of Bayes' theorem in all areas of statistical mechanics. It is hoped that the understanding so gained will allow for improvements in comparisons between theory and experiment.

  16. Is there a signal of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay salinity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilton, T. W.; Najjar, R. G.; Zhong, L.; Li, M.

    2008-09-01

    We evaluate the hypothesis that sea-level rise over the second half of the 20th century has led to detectable increases in Chesapeake Bay salinity. We exploit a simple, statistical model that predicts monthly mean salinity as a function of Susquehanna River flow in 23 segments of the main stem Chesapeake Bay. The residual (observed minus modeled) salinity exhibits statistically significant linear (p < 0.05) trends between 1949 and 2006 in 13 of the 23 segments of the bay. The salinity change estimated from the trend line over this period varies from -2.0 to 2.2, with 10 of the 13 cells showing positive changes. The mean and median salinity changes over all 23 cells are 0.47 and 0.72; over the 13 cells with significant trends they are 0.71 and 1.1. We ran a hydrodynamic model of the bay under present-day and reduced sea level conditions and found a bay-average salinity increase of about 0.5, which supports the hypothesis that the salinity residual trends have a significant component due to sea-level rise. Uncertainties remain, however, due to the spatial and temporal extent of historical salinity data and the infilling of the bay due to sedimentation. The salinity residuals also exhibit interannual variability, with peaks occurring at intervals of roughly 7 to 9 years, which are partially explained by Atlantic Shelf salinity, Potomac River flow and the meridional component of wind stress.

  17. Tidal and residual circulation in a semi-arid bay: Coquimbo Bay, Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo; Moraga, Julio; Olivares, Jorge; Blanco, José Luis

    2000-11-01

    Velocity profiles and time-series data were combined with conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) casts to describe the general circulation at tidal and subtidal scales in a bay of semi-arid climate, Coquimbo Bay (˜30°S), Chile. This was the first study that used a towed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) in coastal Chilean waters and is one of the very few in semi-arid bays. The ADCP was towed for two semi-diurnal tidal cycles in early austral autumn, between March 23 and 24, 1997 along a triangular trajectory that covered most of the bay. Additional data consisted of moored current meters and CTD casts. The observations indicated the presence of a surface layer, above the pycnocline, that showed predominantly diurnal variability forced by the breeze regime and by tides. The tidal circulation in the surface layer featured amplitudes of 10 cm/s within an anticyclonic gyre that occupied most of the bay. The subtidal circulation in the surface was characterized by a pair of counter-rotating gyres. The northernmost three-fourths of the bay showed an anticyclonic gyre, and the observations over the southern fourth implied a cyclonic gyre. The subtidal anticyclonic gyre had a counterpart rotating in opposite direction within a lower layer, underneath the pycnocline. The lower layer showed semidiurnal variability in addition to diurnal variability and was insulated by the pycnocline from heat and momentum fluxes through the air-water interface. Circulations that resemble estuarine and anti-estuarine patterns were found associated with the subtidal gyres. A horizontal divergence related to a 10 cm/s near-surface outflow around Point Tortuga, to the south of the bay entrance, allowed the development of upward motion off the Point, as evidenced by the tilt of the isopycnals at the entrance to the bay.

  18. Superposition-model analysis of rare-earth doped BaY2F8

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnani, N.; Amoretti, G.; Baraldi, A.; Capelletti, R.

    The energy level schemes of four rare-earth dopants (Ce3+ , Nd3+ , Dy3+ , and Er3+) in BaY2 F-8 , as determined by optical absorption spectra, were fitted with a single-ion Hamiltonian and analysed within Newman's Superposition Model for the crystal field. A unified picture for the four dopants was obtained, by assuming a distortion of the F- ligand cage around the RE site; within the framework of the Superposition Model, this distortion is found to have a marked anisotropic behaviour for heavy rare earths, while it turns into an isotropic expansion of the nearest-neighbours polyhedron for light rare earths. It is also inferred that the substituting ion may occupy an off-center position with respect to the original Y3+ site in the crystal.

  19. Submesoscale features and their interaction with fronts and internal tides in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model of the Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, Tommy G.; Shulman, Igor; Wijesekera, Hemantha W.; Anderson, Stephanie; Ladner, Sherwin

    2018-03-01

    Large freshwater fluxes into the Bay of Bengal by rainfall and river discharges result in strong salinity fronts in the bay. In this study, a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model with comprehensive physics is used to model the weather, ocean circulation, and wave field in the Bay of Bengal. Our objective is to explore the submesoscale activity that occurs in a realistic coupled model that resolves mesoscales and allows part of the submesoscale field. Horizontal resolution in the atmosphere varies from 2 to 6 km and is 13 km for surface waves, while the ocean model is submesoscale permitting with resolutions as high as 1.5 km and a vertical resolution of 0.5 m in the upper 10 m. In this paper, three different cases of oceanic submesoscale features are discussed. In the first case, heavy rainfall and intense downdrafts produced by atmospheric convection are found to force submesoscale currents, temperature, and salinity anomalies in the oceanic mixed layer and impact the mesoscale flow. In a second case, strong solitary-like waves are generated by semidiurnal tides in the Andaman Sea and interact with mesoscale flows and fronts and affect submesoscale features generated along fronts. A third source of submesoscale variability is found further north in the Bay of Bengal where river outflows help maintain strong salinity gradients throughout the year. For that case, a comparison with satellite observations of sea surface height anomalies, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll shows that the model captures the observed mesoscale eddy features of the flow field, but in addition, submesoscale upwelling and downwelling patterns associated with ageostrophic secondary circulations along density fronts are also captured by the model.

  20. Coupling Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdman, L.; Kim, J.; Cifelli, R.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Johnson, L. E.; Chandrasekar, V.

    2016-12-01

    San Francisco Bay is a highly urbanized estuary and the surrounding communities are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland rivers and creeks that drain to the Bay. A forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers is necessary for predicting flooding in this complex urban environment. This study introduces the state-of-the-art coupling of the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) with the NWS Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) for San Francisco Bay. For this application, we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model. The tributary discharges from RDHM are dynamic, meteorologically driven allowing for operational use of CoSMoS which has previously relied on statistical estimates of river discharge. The flooding extent is determined by overlaying the resulting maximum water levels onto a recently updated 2-m digital elevation model of the study area which best resolves the extensive levee and tidal marsh systems in the region. The results we present here are focused on the interaction of the Bay and the Napa River watershed. This study demonstrates the interoperability of the CoSMoS and RDHM prediction models. We also use this pilot region to examine storm flooding impacts in a series of storm scenarios that simulate 5-100yr return period events in terms of either coastal or fluvial events. These scenarios demonstrate the wide range of possible flooding outcomes considering rainfall recurrence intervals, soil moisture conditions, storm surge, wind speed, and tides (spring and neap). With a simulated set of over 25 storm scenarios we show how the extent, level, and duration of flooding is dependent on these atmospheric and hydrologic parameters and we also determine a range of likely flood events.

  1. Homeostasis of naive and memory CD4+ T cells: IL-2 and IL-7 differentially regulate the balance between proliferation and Fas-mediated apoptosis.

    PubMed

    Jaleco, Sara; Swainson, Louise; Dardalhon, Valérie; Burjanadze, Maryam; Kinet, Sandrina; Taylor, Naomi

    2003-07-01

    Cytokines play a crucial role in the maintenance of polyclonal naive and memory T cell populations. It has previously been shown that ex vivo, the IL-7 cytokine induces the proliferation of naive recent thymic emigrants (RTE) isolated from umbilical cord blood but not mature adult-derived naive and memory human CD4(+) T cells. We find that the combination of IL-2 and IL-7 strongly promotes the proliferation of RTE, whereas adult CD4(+) T cells remain relatively unresponsive. Immunological activity is controlled by a balance between proliferation and apoptotic cell death. However, the relative contributions of IL-2 and IL-7 in regulating these processes in the absence of MHC/peptide signals are not known. Following exposure to either IL-2 or IL-7 alone, RTE, as well as mature naive and memory CD4(+) T cells, are rendered only minimally sensitive to Fas-mediated cell death. However, in the presence of the two cytokines, Fas engagement results in a high level of caspase-dependent apoptosis in both RTE as well as naive adult CD4(+) T cells. In contrast, equivalently treated memory CD4(+) T cells are significantly less sensitive to Fas-induced cell death. The increased susceptibility of RTE and naive CD4(+) T cells to Fas-induced apoptosis correlates with a significantly higher IL-2/IL-7-induced Fas expression on these T cell subsets than on memory CD4(+) T cells. Thus, IL-2 and IL-7 regulate homeostasis by modulating the equilibrium between proliferation and apoptotic cell death in RTE and mature naive and memory T cell subsets.

  2. Using twelve years of USGS refraction lines to calibrate the Brocher and others (1997) 3D velocity model of the Bay Area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, John; Blair, Luke; Catchings, Rufus; Goldman, Mark; Perosi, Fabio; Steedman, Clare

    2004-01-01

    Campbell (1983) demonstrated that site amplification correlates with depths to the 1.0, 1.5, and 2.5 km/s S-wave velocity horizons. To estimate these depths for the Bay Area stations in the PEER/NGA database, we compare the depths to the 3.2 and 4.4 km/s P-wave velocities in the Brocher and others (1997) 3D velocity model with the depths to these horizons determined from 6 refraction lines shot in the Bay Area from 1991 to 2003. These refraction lines range from two recent 20 km lines that extend from Los Gatos to downtown San Jose, and from downtown San Jose into Alum Rock Park, to two older 200 km lines than run axially from Hollister up the San Francisco Peninsula to Inverness and from Hollister up the East Bay across San Pablo Bay to Santa Rosa. Comparison of these cross-sections with the Brocher and others (1997) model indicates that the 1.5 km/s S-wave horizon, which we correlate with the 3.2 km/s P-wave horizon, is the most reliable horizon that can be extracted from the Brocher and others (1997) velocity model. We determine simple adjustments to bring the Brocher and others (1997) 3.2 and 4.4 km/s P-wave horizons into an average agreement with the refraction results. Then we apply these adjustments to estimate depths to the 1.5 and 2.5 km/s S-wave horizons beneath the strong motion stations in the PEER/NGA database.

  3. Chesapeake Bay TMDL

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In 2010 EPA established the Chesapeake Bay TMDL, a comprehensive pollution diet with accountability measures to restore clean water in the bay and local waters. It set limits for nutrients and sediment to meet water quality standards across the watershed

  4. Characteristics of seismic survey pulses and the ambient soundscape in Baffin Bay and Melville Bay, West Greenland.

    PubMed

    Martin, S Bruce; Matthews, Marie-Noël R; MacDonnell, Jeff T; Bröker, Koen

    2017-12-01

    In 2012 a seismic survey campaign involving four vessels was conducted in Baffin Bay, West Greenland. Long-distance (150 km) pre-survey acoustic modeling was performed in accordance with regulatory requirements. Four acoustic recorders, three with hydrophones at 100, 200, and 400 m depths, measured ambient and anthropogenic sound during the survey. Additional recordings without the surveys were made from September 2013 to September 2014. The results show that (1) the soundscape of Baffin Bay is typical for open ocean environments and Melville Bay's soundscape is dominated by glacial ice noise; (2) there are distinct multipath arrivals of seismic pulses 40 km from the array; (3) seismic sound levels vary little as a function of depth; (4) high fidelity pre-survey acoustic propagation modeling produced reliable results; (5) the daily SEL did not exceed regulatory thresholds and were different using Southall, Bowles, Ellison, Finneran, Gentry, Greene, Kastak, Ketten, Miller, Nachtigall, Richardson, Thomas, and Tyack [(2007) Aquat. Mamm. 33, 411-521] or NOAA weightings [National Marine Fisheries Service (2016). NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-OPR-55, p. 178]; (6) fluctuations of SPL with range were better described by additive models than linear regression; and (7) the survey increased the 1-min SPL by 28 dB, with most of the energy below 100 Hz; energy in the 16 000 Hz octave band was 20 dB above the ambient background 6 km from the source.

  5. 77 FR 38488 - Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-28

    ... 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY... temporary safety zone on the St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, New York. This safety zone is intended to restrict vessels from a portion of the St. Lawrence River during the Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce...

  6. An overview of San Francisco Bay PORTS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cheng, Ralph T.; McKinnie, David; English, Chad; Smith, Richard E.

    1998-01-01

    The Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS) provides observations of tides, tidal currents, and meteorological conditions in real-time. The San Francisco Bay PORTS (SFPORTS) is a decision support system to facilitate safe and efficient maritime commerce. In addition to real-time observations, SFPORTS includes a nowcast numerical model forming a San Francisco Bay marine nowcast system. SFPORTS data and nowcast numerical model results are made available to users through the World Wide Web (WWW). A brief overview of SFPORTS is presented, from the data flow originated at instrument sensors to final results delivered to end users on the WWW. A user-friendly interface for SFPORTS has been designed and implemented. Appropriate field data analysis, nowcast procedures, design and generation of graphics for WWW display of field data and nowcast results are presented and discussed. Furthermore, SFPORTS is designed to support hazardous materials spill prevention and response, and to serve as resources to scientists studying the health of San Francisco Bay ecosystem. The success (or failure) of the SFPORTS to serve the intended user community is determined by the effectiveness of the user interface.

  7. Impaired P600 in neuroleptic naive patients with first-episode schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Papageorgiou, C; Kontaxakis, V P; Havaki-Kontaxaki, B J; Stamouli, S; Vasios, C; Asvestas, P; Matsopoulos, G K; Kontopantelis, E; Rabavilas, A; Uzunoglu, N; Christodoulou, G N

    2001-09-17

    Deficits of working memory (WM) are recognized as an important pathological feature in schizophrenia. Since the P600 component of event related potentials has been hypothesized that represents aspects of second-pass parsing processes of information processing, and is related to WM, the present study focuses on P600 elicited during a WM test in drug-naive first-episode schizophrenics (FES) compared to healthy controls. We examined 16 drug-naive first-episode schizophrenic patients and 23 healthy controls matched for age and sex. Compared with controls schizophrenic patients showed reduced P600 amplitude on left temporoparietal region and increased P600 amplitude on left occipital region. With regard to the latency, the patients exhibited significantly prolongation on right temporoparietal region. The obtained pattern of differences classified correctly 89.20% of patients. Memory performance of patients was also significantly impaired relative to controls. Our results suggest that second-pass parsing process of information processing, as indexed by P600, elicited during a WM test, is impaired in FES. Moreover, these findings lend support to the view that the auditory WM in schizophrenia involves or affects a circuitry including temporoparietal and occipital brain areas.

  8. 33 CFR 334.762 - Naval Support Activity Panama City; North Bay and West Bay; restricted areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... City; North Bay and West Bay; restricted areas. 334.762 Section 334.762 Navigation and Navigable Waters... REGULATIONS § 334.762 Naval Support Activity Panama City; North Bay and West Bay; restricted areas. (a) The..., Naval Support Activity, Panama City Florida, and such agencies as he/she may designate. [73 FR 52927...

  9. 33 CFR 334.762 - Naval Support Activity Panama City; North Bay and West Bay; restricted areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... City; North Bay and West Bay; restricted areas. 334.762 Section 334.762 Navigation and Navigable Waters... REGULATIONS § 334.762 Naval Support Activity Panama City; North Bay and West Bay; restricted areas. (a) The..., Naval Support Activity, Panama City Florida, and such agencies as he/she may designate. [73 FR 52927...

  10. Integrated geostatistics for modeling fluid contacts and shales in Prudhoe Bay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Perez, G.; Chopra, A.K.; Severson, C.D.

    1997-12-01

    Geostatistics techniques are being used increasingly to model reservoir heterogeneity at a wide range of scales. A variety of techniques is now available with differing underlying assumptions, complexity, and applications. This paper introduces a novel method of geostatistics to model dynamic gas-oil contacts and shales in the Prudhoe Bay reservoir. The method integrates reservoir description and surveillance data within the same geostatistical framework. Surveillance logs and shale data are transformed to indicator variables. These variables are used to evaluate vertical and horizontal spatial correlation and cross-correlation of gas and shale at different times and to develop variogram models. Conditional simulationmore » techniques are used to generate multiple three-dimensional (3D) descriptions of gas and shales that provide a measure of uncertainty. These techniques capture the complex 3D distribution of gas-oil contacts through time. The authors compare results of the geostatistical method with conventional techniques as well as with infill wells drilled after the study. Predicted gas-oil contacts and shale distributions are in close agreement with gas-oil contacts observed at infill wells.« less

  11. Nicotinic Acid Adenine Dinucleotide Phosphate Plays a Critical Role in Naive and Effector Murine T Cells but Not Natural Regulatory T Cells.

    PubMed

    Ali, Ramadan A; Camick, Christina; Wiles, Katherine; Walseth, Timothy F; Slama, James T; Bhattacharya, Sumit; Giovannucci, David R; Wall, Katherine A

    2016-02-26

    Nicotinic acid adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NAADP), the most potent Ca(2+) mobilizing second messenger discovered to date, has been implicated in Ca(2+) signaling in some lymphomas and T cell clones. In contrast, the role of NAADP in Ca(2+) signaling or the identity of the Ca(2+) stores targeted by NAADP in conventional naive T cells is less clear. In the current study, we demonstrate the importance of NAADP in the generation of Ca(2+) signals in murine naive T cells. Combining live-cell imaging methods and a pharmacological approach using the NAADP antagonist Ned-19, we addressed the involvement of NAADP in the generation of Ca(2+) signals evoked by TCR stimulation and the role of this signal in downstream physiological end points such as proliferation, cytokine production, and other responses to stimulation. We demonstrated that acidic compartments in addition to the endoplasmic reticulum were the Ca(2+) stores that were sensitive to NAADP in naive T cells. NAADP was shown to evoke functionally relevant Ca(2+) signals in both naive CD4 and naive CD8 T cells. Furthermore, we examined the role of this signal in the activation, proliferation, and secretion of effector cytokines by Th1, Th2, Th17, and CD8 effector T cells. Overall, NAADP exhibited a similar profile in mediating Ca(2+) release in effector T cells as in their counterpart naive T cells and seemed to be equally important for the function of these different subsets of effector T cells. This profile was not observed for natural T regulatory cells. © 2016 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  12. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean T.; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2012-01-01

    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  13. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G.; Judd, C.; Thom, R.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Watson, B.; Rodriguez, H.; Johnson, H.

    2012-12-01

    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA's EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  14. The influence of seagrass on shell layers and Florida Bay mudbanks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prager, E.J.; Halley, R.B.

    1999-01-01

    Aerial photography indicates that sometime since the early 1970's, an emergent ridge of shell debris developed on a mudbank north of Calusa Key in Florida Bay. Coarse shell deposits on and within the Bay's shallow mudbanks are believed to be the product of transport during major storm events and subsequent winnowing. However, shell material from the ridge contains nuclear bomb 14C, supporting formation within the past 30 years and the last major hurricanes to influence Florida Bay were Donna and Betsy (1960 and 1965). Results from this study suggest that the Calusa ridge and other coarse shell deposits in Florida Bay can result from, 1) periodic seagrass mortality and wave-induced transport during frequent winter cold fronts and/or 2) mollusc blooms and subsequent burial. A survey of bottom types indicates that dense to intermediate beds of seagrass, mainly Thalassia testudinum (turtle grass), occur within the shallow basins of western Florida Bay and along the margins of Bay mudbanks. Wave measurements and modeling indicate that Thalassia along mudbank margins can reduce incoming wave-energy by over 80%. Seagrass beds also host particularly dense populations of molluscs from periodic 'blooms' and are believed to be the major source of coarse sediments in the Bay. Thus, if bank-edge seagrass dies, sediments, including shell debris, become exposed and subject to greatly increased wave energy. Modeling indicates that winds typical of winter cold fronts in South Florida can produce near-bottom velocities and shear stress at a grass-free bank edge which are sufficient to transport coarse carbonate grains. Shell layers found at depth in mudbank cores can also be explained by previous episodes of sediment accretion over mollusc-rich seagrass beds or grass bed mortality at the edge of a mudbank and shell transport during cold front passage. The latter implies that mortality of marginal seagrass beds has occurred throughout the history of Florida Bay and that the

  15. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  16. Interleukin-7 induces HIV replication in primary naive T cells through a nuclear factor of activated T cell (NFAT)-dependent pathway

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Managlia, Elizabeth Z.; Landay, Alan; Al-Harthi, Lena

    2006-07-05

    Interleukin (IL)-7 plays several roles critical to T cell maturation, survival, and homeostasis. Because of these functions, IL-7 is under investigation as an immune-modulator for therapeutic use in lymphopenic clinical conditions, including HIV. We reported that naive T cells, typically not permissive to HIV, can be productively infected when pre-treated with IL-7. We evaluated the mechanism by which IL-7-mediates this effect. IL-7 potently up-regulated the transcriptional factor NFAT, but had no effect on NF{kappa}B. Blocking NFAT activity using a number of reagents, such as Cyclosporin A, FK-506, or the NFAT-specific inhibitor known as VIVIT peptide, all markedly reduced IL-7-mediated inductionmore » of HIV replication in naive T cells. Additional neutralization of cytokines present in IL-7-treated cultures and/or those that have NFAT-binding sequences within their promotors indicated that IL-10, IL-4, and most significantly IFN{gamma}, all contribute to IL-7-induction of HIV productive replication in naive T cells. These data clarify the mechanism by which IL-7 can overcome the block to HIV productive infection in naive T cells, despite their quiescent cell status. These findings are relevant to the treatment of HIV disease and understanding HIV pathogenesis in the naive CD4+ T cell compartment, especially in light of the vigorous pursuit of IL-7 as an in vivo immune modulator.« less

  17. A High-Authority/Low-Authority Control Strategy for Coupled Aircraft-Style Bays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schiller, N. H.; Fuller, C. R.; Cabell, R. H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a numerical investigation of an active structural acoustic control strategy for coupled aircraft-style bays. While structural coupling can destabilize or limit the performance of some model-based decentralized control systems, fullycoupled centralized control strategies are impractical for typical aircraft containing several hundred bays. An alternative is to use classical rate feedback with matched, collocated transducer pairs to achieve active damping. Unfortunately, due to the conservative nature of this strategy, stability is guaranteed at the expense of achievable noise reduction. Therefore, this paper describes the development of a combined control strategy using robust active damping in addition to a high-authority controller based on linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) theory. The combined control system is evaluated on a tensioned, two-bay model using piezoceramic actuators and ideal point velocity sensors. Transducer placement on the two-bay structure is discussed, and the advantages of a combined control strategy are presented.

  18. 33 CFR 110.224 - San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, Suisun Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and connecting waters, CA. (a) General regulations. (1..., Carquinez Strait, Suisun Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and connecting waters, CA. 110.224... notified to move by the Captain of the Port. (4) No vessel may anchor within a tunnel, cable, or pipeline...

  19. 33 CFR 110.224 - San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, Suisun Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and connecting waters, CA. (a) General regulations. (1..., Carquinez Strait, Suisun Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and connecting waters, CA. 110.224... notified to move by the Captain of the Port. (4) No vessel may anchor within a tunnel, cable, or pipeline...

  20. 33 CFR 110.224 - San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Carquinez Strait, Suisun Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and connecting waters, CA. (a) General regulations. (1..., Carquinez Strait, Suisun Bay, Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and connecting waters, CA. 110.224... notified to move by the Captain of the Port. (4) No vessel may anchor within a tunnel, cable, or pipeline...

  1. Sediment dispersal in modern and mid-Holocene basins: implications for shoreline progradation and sediment bypassing, Poverty Bay, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bever, A. J.; Harris, C. K.; McNinch, J.

    2006-12-01

    Poverty Bay is a small embayment located on the eastern shore of New Zealand's North Island. The modern Waipaoa River, a small mountainous river that drains highly erodible mudstone and siltstone, discharges ~15 million tons of sediment per year to Poverty Bay. Rates of bay infilling from fluvial sediment have varied since the maximum shoreline transgression, ~7000 kya. The evolving geometry of Poverty Bay has likely impacted sediment dispersal over these timescales, and thereby influenced the stratigraphic architecture, rates of shoreline progradation, and sediment supply to the continental shelf. This modeling study investigates sediment transport within both modern and paleo, ~7000 kya, Poverty Bays. The Regional Ocean Modeling System was used to examine sediment transport within modern and ~7000 kya Poverty Bay basin geometries. The numerical model includes hydrodynamics driven by winds and buoyancy, and sediment resuspension from energetic waves and currents. Strong winds and waves from the southeast were used, along with high Waipaoa freshwater and sediment discharge, consistent with storm conditions. Besides shedding light on short term transport mechanisms, these results are being incorporated into a stratigraphic model by Wolinsky and Swenson. The paleo basin geometry narrowed at the head of the bay, causing currents to converge and promoting near- field sediment deposition. Buoyancy and wind driven across-shelf currents in the modern bay transport sediment away from the river mouth. Sediment was deposited closer to the river mouth in the paleo than the modern bay, and the modern bay exported much more sediment to the continental shelf than predicted for the middle Holocene bay. Net across-shelf fluxes decreased from a maximum at the head of the bay to nearly zero at the mouth during the paleo run. The modern run, however, had net across-shelf fluxes still half the maximum at the bay mouth. Results from short term model runs indicated that, with similar

  2. Bay-Ocean Coupling and the Proximal Fate of Water-Borne Material Exported from San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Largier, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    The coupling between San Francisco Bay and the ocean is poorly known: how ocean waters intrude into bay and how bay waters flow out into the ocean. Here we address the outflow from the Bay with a view to describing the proximal fate of water-borne material in the coastal ocean, specifically finer particles and dissolved material. Flow trajectories longer than that in the tidal jet are thus the focus of this study - time scales of hours to days. We present data collected in both winter/runoff and spring/upwelling seasons that reflect the importance of tides and also the importance of wind, which introduces either northward or southward along-coast flow. Southward flow is offshore and typically this Bay effluent is removed from nearshore waters. In contrast, northward flow tends to remain attached to shore, and there is persistent presence of Bay waters in the surface layer up to Point Reyes, only occasionally separated from the coast by local upwelling within Drakes Bay. Perhaps most dramatic is outflow during winter storms, when wind is southerly and pushes water on shore in Drakes Bay as well as inducing an intense flow around Point Reyes, which turns cyclonically to reconnect with the shore in the vicinity of Bodega Bay before forming a wind-accelerated coast-attached current that looks very much like a coastal buoyancy current. This is the time when large volumes of low-salinity and high-load waters are exported from the Bay.

  3. Clinical and Mucosal Immune Correlates of HIV-1 Semen Levels in Antiretroviral-Naive Men

    PubMed Central

    Marsh, Angie K.; Huibner, Sanja; Shahabi, Kamnoosh; Liu, Cindy; Contente, Tania; Nagelkerke, Nico J. D.; Kovacs, Colin; Benko, Erika; Price, Lance; MacDonald, Kelly S.; Kaul, Rupert

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background. This study was done to characterize parameters associated with semen human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 ribonucleic acid (RNA) viral load (VL) variability in HIV-infected, therapy-naive men. Methods. Paired blood and semen samples were collected from 30 HIV-infected, therapy-naive men who have sex with men, and 13 participants were observed longitudinally for up to 1 year. Human immunodeficiency virus RNA, bacterial load by 16S RNA, herpesvirus (Epstein-Barr virus and cytomegalovirus [CMV]) shedding, and semen cytokines/chemokines were quantified, and semen T-cell subsets were assessed by multiparameter flow cytometry. Results. Semen HIV RNA was detected at 93% of visits, with >50% of men shedding high levels of virus (defined as >5000 copies/mL). In the baseline cross-sectional analysis, an increased semen HIV VL correlated with local CMV reactivation, the semen bacterial load, and semen inflammatory cytokines, particularly interleukin (IL)-8. T cells in semen were more activated than blood, and there was an increased frequency of Th17 cells and γδ-T-cells. Subsequent prospective analysis demonstrated striking interindividual variability in HIV and CMV shedding patterns, and only semen IL-8 levels and the blood VL were independently associated with semen HIV levels. Conclusions. Several clinical and immune parameters were associated with increased HIV semen levels in antiretroviral therapy-naive men, with induction of local proinflammatory cytokines potentially acting as a common pathway. PMID:28534034

  4. Spatial estimation from remotely sensed data via empirical Bayes models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, J. R.; Hinkley, D. V.; Kostal, H.; Morris, C. N.

    1984-01-01

    Multichannel satellite image data, available as LANDSAT imagery, are recorded as a multivariate time series (four channels, multiple passovers) in two spatial dimensions. The application of parametric empirical Bayes theory to classification of, and estimating the probability of, each crop type at each of a large number of pixels is considered. This theory involves both the probability distribution of imagery data, conditional on crop types, and the prior spatial distribution of crop types. For the latter Markov models indexed by estimable parameters are used. A broad outline of the general theory reveals several questions for further research. Some detailed results are given for the special case of two crop types when only a line transect is analyzed. Finally, the estimation of an underlying continuous process on the lattice is discussed which would be applicable to such quantities as crop yield.

  5. Resource protection for waterbirds in Chesapeake Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erwin, R.M.; Haramis, G.M.; Krementz, D.G.; Funderburk, S.L.

    1993-01-01

    Many living resources in the Chesapeake Bay estuary have deteriorated over the past 50 years. As a result, many governmental committees, task forces, and management plans have been established. Most of the recommendations for implementing a bay cleanup focus on reducing sediments and nutrient flow into the watershed. We emphasize that habitat requirements other than water quality are necessary for the recovery of much of the bay's avian wildlife, and we use a waterbird example as illustration. Some of these needs are: (1) protection of fast-eroding islands, or creation of new ones by dredge deposition to improve nesting habitat for American black ducks(Anas rubripes), great blue herons(Ardea herodias), and other associated wading birds; (2) conservation of remaining brackish marshes, especially near riparian areas, for feeding black ducks, wading birds, and wood ducks(Aix sponsa); (3) establishment of sanctuaries in open-water, littoral zones to protect feeding and/or roosting areas for diving ducks such as canvasbacks(Aythya valisineria) and redheads(Aythya americana), and for bald eagles(Haliaeetus leucocephalus); and (4) limitation of disturbance by boaters around nesting islands and open-water feeding areas. Land (or water) protection measures for waterbirds need to include units at several different spatial scales, ranging from ?points? (e.g., a colony site) to large-area resources (e.g., a marsh or tributary for feeding). Planning to conserve large areas of both land and water can be achieved following a biosphere reserve model. Existing interagency committees in the Chesapeake Bay Program could be more effective in developing such a model for wildlife and fisheries resources.

  6. Resource protection for waterbirds in Chesapeake bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erwin, R. Michael; Haramis, G. Michael; Krementz, David G.; Funderburk, Steven L.

    1993-09-01

    Many living resources in the Chesapeake Bay estuary have deteriorated over the past 50 years. As a result, many governmental committees, task forces, and management plans have been established. Most of the recommendations for implementing a bay cleanup focus on reducing sediments and nutrient flow into the watershed. We emphasize that habitat requirements other than water quality are necessary for the recovery of much of the bay's avian wildlife, and we use a waterbird example as illustration. Some of these needs are: (1) protection of fast-eroding islands, or creation of new ones by dredge deposition to improve nesting habitat for American black ducks (Anas rubripes), great blue herons (Ardea herodias), and other associated wading birds; (2) conservation of remaining brackish marshes, especially near riparian areas, for feeding black ducks, wading birds, and wood ducks (Aix sponsa); (3) establishment of sanctuaries in open-water, littoral zones to protect feeding and/or roosting areas for diving ducks such as canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) and redheads (Aythya americana), and for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus); and (4) limitation of disturbance by boaters around nesting islands and open-water feeding areas. Land (or water) protection measures for waterbirds need to include units at several different spatial scales, ranging from “points” (e.g., a colony site) to large-area resources (e.g., a marsh or tributary for feeding). Planning to conserve large areas of both land and water can be achieved following a biosphere reserve model. Existing interagency committees in the Chesapeake Bay Program could be more effective in developing such a model for wildlife and fisheries resources.

  7. Modeling of Waves, Hydrodynamics and Sediment Transport for Protection of Wetlands at Braddock Bay, New York

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-01

    entrance were evaluated on their ability to reduce potential impacts of waves and currents on wet- lands. Study results indicated all three proposed...transport de- veloped were used in the evaluation of proposed solutions. The prelimi- nary modeling results helped to assess general sediment pattern...Corps of Engineers (USACE), Buffalo Dis- trict, is conducting a study to evaluate shoreline protection measures for coastal wetlands at Braddock Bay

  8. Simulation of nutrient and sediment concentrations and loads in the Delaware inland bays watershed: Extension of the hydrologic and water-quality model to ungaged segments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez-Magness, Angelica L.

    2006-01-01

    Rapid population increases, agriculture, and industrial practices have been identified as important sources of excessive nutrients and sediments in the Delaware Inland Bays watershed. The amount and effect of excessive nutrients and sediments in the Inland Bays watershed have been well documented by the Delaware Geological Survey, the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Estuary Program, the Delaware Center for Inland Bays, the University of Delaware, and other agencies. This documentation and data previously were used to develop a hydrologic and water-quality model of the Delaware Inland Bays watershed to simulate nutrients and sediment concentrations and loads, and to calibrate the model by comparing concentrations and streamflow data at six stations in the watershed over a limited period of time (October 1998 through April 2000). Although the model predictions of nutrient and sediment concentrations for the calibrated segments were fairly accurate, the predictions for the 28 ungaged segments located near tidal areas, where stream data were not available, were above the range of values measured in the area. The cooperative study established in 2000 by the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, the Delaware Geological Survey, and the U.S. Geological Survey was extended to evaluate the model predictions in ungaged segments and to ensure that the model, developed as a planning and management tool, could accurately predict nutrient and sediment concentrations within the measured range of values in the area. The evaluation of the predictions was limited to the period of calibration (1999) of the 2003 model. To develop estimates on ungaged watersheds, parameter values from calibrated segments are transferred to the ungaged segments; however, accurate predictions are unlikely where parameter transference is subject to error. The unexpected nutrient and

  9. Brentuximab vedotin (SGN-35) in patients with transplant-naive relapsed/refractory Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Sasse, Stephanie; Rothe, Achim; Goergen, Helen; Eichenauer, Dennis A; Lohri, Andreas; Kreher, Stephan; Jäger, Ulrich; Bangard, Christopher; Kuhnert, Georg; Böll, Boris; von Tresckow, Bastian; Engert, Andreas

    2013-10-01

    Only limited data are available on the role of brentuximab vedotin (SGN-35) in transplant-naive relapsed or refractory patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). We thus retrospectively analyzed 14 patients with primary refractory or relapsed HL who were treated with brentuximab vedotin as single agent in a named patient program, who had not received prior high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) and autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) due to refractory disease (n = 9), comorbidity (n = 4) and unknown reasons (n = 1). Brentuximab vedotin resulted in an overall response rate of 71% (10/14) with five complete responses (CRs). Five of those patients with refractory disease and four patients with relevant comorbidity responded. Consolidating ASCT (n = 4) or allogeneic SCT (n = 1) was performed in five patients. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 9 months and the median overall survival (OS) was not reached. These data indicate the therapeutic efficacy of brentuximab vedotin in chemotherapy-refractory transplant-naive patients with HL.

  10. BayMeth: improved DNA methylation quantification for affinity capture sequencing data using a flexible Bayesian approach

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Affinity capture of DNA methylation combined with high-throughput sequencing strikes a good balance between the high cost of whole genome bisulfite sequencing and the low coverage of methylation arrays. We present BayMeth, an empirical Bayes approach that uses a fully methylated control sample to transform observed read counts into regional methylation levels. In our model, inefficient capture can readily be distinguished from low methylation levels. BayMeth improves on existing methods, allows explicit modeling of copy number variation, and offers computationally efficient analytical mean and variance estimators. BayMeth is available in the Repitools Bioconductor package. PMID:24517713

  11. 77 FR 50921 - Safety Zone: Bay Bridge Load Transfer Safety Zone, San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-23

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone: Bay Bridge Load Transfer Safety Zone, San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA AGENCY... the Bay Bridge Load Transfer Safety Zone from August 1, 2012 through October 31, 2012. This safety... Bay Bridge from the temporary suspension arrangement to the permanent suspension arrangement, the...

  12. Searching for θ 13 at Daya Bay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Giedt, Joel; Napolitano, James

    2015-06-08

    An experiment has been carried out by the Daya Bay Collaboration to measure the neutrino mixing angle θ 13. In addition, the grant has supported research into lattice field theory beyond the standard model.

  13. Hurricane-induced Sediment Transport and Morphological Change in Jamaica Bay, New York

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, K.; Chen, Q. J.

    2016-02-01

    Jamaica Bay is located in Brooklyn and Queens, New York on the western end of the south shore of the Long Island land mass. It experienced a conversion of more than 60% of the vegetated salt-marsh islands to intertidal and subtidal mudflats. Hurricanes and nor'easters are among the important driving forces that reshape coastal landscape quickly and affect wetland sustainability. Wetland protection and restoration need a better understanding of hydrodynamics and sediment transport in this area, especially under extreme weather conditions. Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along east coast on October 30, 2012, provides a critical opportunity for studying the impacts of hurricanes on sedimentation, erosion and morphological changes in Jamaica Bay and salt marsh islands. The Delft3D model suit was applied to model hydrodynamics and sediment transport in Jamaica Bay and salt marsh islands. Three domains were set up for nesting computation. The local domain covering the bay and salt marshes has a resolution of 10 m. The wave module was online coupled with the flow module. Vegetation effects were considered as a large number of rigid cylinders by a sub-module in Delft3D. Parameters in sediment transport and morphological change were carefully chosen and calibrated. Prior- and post-Sandy Surface Elevation Table (SET)/accretion data including mark horizon (short-term) and 137Cs and 210Pb (long-term) at salt marsh islands in Jamaica Bay were used for model validation. Model results indicate that waves played an important role in hurricane-induced morphological change in Jamaica Bay and wetlands. In addition, numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the impacts of hypothetic hurricanes. This study has been supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Hurricane Sandy Disaster Recovery Act Funds.

  14. Approximated adjusted fractional Bayes factors: A general method for testing informative hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Gu, Xin; Mulder, Joris; Hoijtink, Herbert

    2018-05-01

    Informative hypotheses are increasingly being used in psychological sciences because they adequately capture researchers' theories and expectations. In the Bayesian framework, the evaluation of informative hypotheses often makes use of default Bayes factors such as the fractional Bayes factor. This paper approximates and adjusts the fractional Bayes factor such that it can be used to evaluate informative hypotheses in general statistical models. In the fractional Bayes factor a fraction parameter must be specified which controls the amount of information in the data used for specifying an implicit prior. The remaining fraction is used for testing the informative hypotheses. We discuss different choices of this parameter and present a scheme for setting it. Furthermore, a software package is described which computes the approximated adjusted fractional Bayes factor. Using this software package, psychological researchers can evaluate informative hypotheses by means of Bayes factors in an easy manner. Two empirical examples are used to illustrate the procedure. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  15. 33 CFR 167.101 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. 167.101 Section 167.101 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. (a) A precautionary...

  16. 33 CFR 167.101 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. 167.101 Section 167.101 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. (a) A precautionary...

  17. 33 CFR 167.101 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. 167.101 Section 167.101 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. (a) A precautionary...

  18. 33 CFR 167.101 - In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false In the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. 167.101 Section 167.101 Navigation and Navigable... the approaches to Narragansett Bay, RI, and Buzzards Bay, MA: Precautionary areas. (a) A precautionary...

  19. Default "Gunel and Dickey" Bayes factors for contingency tables.

    PubMed

    Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Morey, Richard D; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2017-04-01

    The analysis of R×C contingency tables usually features a test for independence between row and column counts. Throughout the social sciences, the adequacy of the independence hypothesis is generally evaluated by the outcome of a classical p-value null-hypothesis significance test. Unfortunately, however, the classical p-value comes with a number of well-documented drawbacks. Here we outline an alternative, Bayes factor method to quantify the evidence for and against the hypothesis of independence in R×C contingency tables. First we describe different sampling models for contingency tables and provide the corresponding default Bayes factors as originally developed by Gunel and Dickey (Biometrika, 61(3):545-557 (1974)). We then illustrate the properties and advantages of a Bayes factor analysis of contingency tables through simulations and practical examples. Computer code is available online and has been incorporated in the "BayesFactor" R package and the JASP program ( jasp-stats.org ).

  20. Genetic characterization and antiretroviral resistance mutations among treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals in Jiaxing, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Jinlei; Yan, Yong; Zhang, Jiafeng; Ji, Jimei; Ge, Zhijian; Ge, Rui; Zhang, Xiaofei; Wang, Henghui; Chen, Zhongwen; Luo, Jianyong

    2017-03-14

    The aim of this study was to characterize HIV-1 genotypes and antiretroviral resistance mutations among treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals in Jiaxing, China. The HIV-1 partial polymerase (pol) genes in 93 of the 99 plasma samples were successfully amplified and analyzed. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the existence of five HIV-1 genotypes, of which the most prevalent genotype was CRF01_AE (38.7%), followed by CRF07_BC (34.4%), CRF08_BC (16.1%), subtype B/B' (5.4%), and CRF55_01B (2.1%). Besides, three types of unique recombination forms (URFs) were also observed, including C/F2/A1, CRF01_AE/B, and CRF08_BC/CRF07_BC. Among 93 amplicons, 46.2% had drug resistance-associated mutations, including 23.7% for protease inhibitors (PIs) mutations, 1.1% for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) mutations, and 20.4% for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) mutations. Six (6.5%) out of 93 treatment-naive subjects were identified to be resistant to one or more NNRTIs, while resistance to NRTIs or PIs was not observed. Our study showed the genetic diversity of HIV-1 strains circulating in Jiaxing and a relative high proportion of antiretroviral resistance mutations among treatment-naive patients, indicating a serious challenge for HIV prevention and treatment program.

  1. A Combined Omics Approach to Generate the Surface Atlas of Human Naive CD4+ T Cells during Early T-Cell Receptor Activation*

    PubMed Central

    Graessel, Anke; Hauck, Stefanie M.; von Toerne, Christine; Kloppmann, Edda; Goldberg, Tatyana; Koppensteiner, Herwig; Schindler, Michael; Knapp, Bettina; Krause, Linda; Dietz, Katharina; Schmidt-Weber, Carsten B.; Suttner, Kathrin

    2015-01-01

    Naive CD4+ T cells are the common precursors of multiple effector and memory T-cell subsets and possess a high plasticity in terms of differentiation potential. This stem-cell-like character is important for cell therapies aiming at regeneration of specific immunity. Cell surface proteins are crucial for recognition and response to signals mediated by other cells or environmental changes. Knowledge of cell surface proteins of human naive CD4+ T cells and their changes during the early phase of T-cell activation is urgently needed for a guided differentiation of naive T cells and may support the selection of pluripotent cells for cell therapy. Periodate oxidation and aniline-catalyzed oxime ligation technology was applied with subsequent quantitative liquid chromatography-tandem MS to generate a data set describing the surface proteome of primary human naive CD4+ T cells and to monitor dynamic changes during the early phase of activation. This led to the identification of 173 N-glycosylated surface proteins. To independently confirm the proteomic data set and to analyze the cell surface by an alternative technique a systematic phenotypic expression analysis of surface antigens via flow cytometry was performed. This screening expanded the previous data set, resulting in 229 surface proteins, which were expressed on naive unstimulated and activated CD4+ T cells. Furthermore, we generated a surface expression atlas based on transcriptome data, experimental annotation, and predicted subcellular localization, and correlated the proteomics result with this transcriptional data set. This extensive surface atlas provides an overall naive CD4+ T cell surface resource and will enable future studies aiming at a deeper understanding of mechanisms of T-cell biology allowing the identification of novel immune targets usable for the development of therapeutic treatments. PMID:25991687

  2. Discharge, water-quality characteristics, and nutrient loads from McKay Bay, Delaney Creek, and East Bay, Tampa, Florida, 1991-1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stoker, Y.E.; Levesque, V.A.; Fritz, E.M.

    1996-01-01

    Nutrient enrichment in Tampa Bay has caused a decline in water quality in the estuary. Efforts to reduce the nutrient loading to Tampa Bay have resulted in improvement in water quality from 1981 to 1991. However, Tampa Bay still is onsidered enriched with nutrients. Water quality in East Bay (located at the northeastern part of Hillsborough Bay, which is an embayment in Tampa Bay) is not improving at the same rate as the rest of the bay. East Bay is the center of shipping activity in Tampa Bay and the seventh largest port in the United States. One of the primary cargoes is phosphate ore and related products such as fertilizer. The potential for nutrient loading to East Bay from shipping activities is high and has not previously been measured. Nitrogen and phosphorus loads from East Bay to Hillsborough Bay were measured during selected time periods during June 1992 through May 1993; these data were used to estimate seasonal and annual loads. These loads were evaluated to determine whether the loss of fertilizer products from shipping activities resulted in increased nutrient loading to Hillsborough Bay. Discharge was measured, and water-quality samples were collected at the head of East Bay (exiting McKay Bay), and at the mouth of East Bay. Discharge and nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the period June 1992 through May 1993 were used to compute loads. Discharges from McKay Bay, Delaney Creek, and East Bay are highly variable because of the effect of tide. Flow patterns during discharge measurements generally were unidirectional in McKay Bay and Delaney Creek, but more complex, bidirectional patterns were observed at the mouth of East Bay. Tidally affected discharge data were digitally filtered with the Godin filter to remove the effects of tide so that residual, or net, discharge could be determined. Daily mean discharge from McKay Bay ranged from -1,900 to 2,420 cubic feet per second; from Delaney Creek, -3.8 to 162 cubic feet per second; and from East

  3. 46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

  4. 46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

  5. 46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

  6. 46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

  7. 46 CFR 7.20 - Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island Sound and easterly entrance to Long Island Sound, NY. 7.20 Section 7.20... Atlantic Coast § 7.20 Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, MA, Block Island...

  8. Long-term isolation and local adaptation in Palau's Nikko Bay help corals thrive in acidic waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golbuu, Yimnang; Gouezo, Marine; Kurihara, Haruko; Rehm, Lincoln; Wolanski, Eric

    2016-09-01

    The reefs in Palau's Nikko Bay live in seawater with low pH that is similar to conditions predicted for 2100 because of ocean acidification. Nevertheless, the reefs at Nikko Bay have high coral cover and high diversity. We hypothesize that the low-pH environment in Nikko Bay is caused by low flushing rates, which causes long-term isolation and local adaptation. To test this hypothesis, we modeled the water circulation in and around Nikko Bay. Model results show that average residence time is 71 d, which is ten times the residence time on fore-reef habitats. The long residence time restricts the exchange of coral larvae in the bay with adjacent reefs, allowing persistent selection for tolerant traits and local adaptation. The corals in Nikko Bay are also more susceptible to local pollution because the waters are poorly flushed. Therefore, local management must focus on minimizing human impacts such as dredging, overfishing and pollution in the bay, which would compromise the condition of the corals that have already adapted to low-pH conditions.

  9. Evaluating screening effects and Tusnami danger in bays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, V. V.; Simonov, K. V.; Garder, O. I.

    1985-06-01

    In selecting sites for new construction in the Kuril Islands it is important to evaluate the tsunami danger of the pertinent parts of the coastline. Recommendations for the Kuril Islands have been published, but they are only preliminary. An effort has now been made to improve them by formulatating a more adequate model of the source with defining of those peculiarities of the specific position of a bay which exert the most significant influence on formation of the maximum tsunami wave in the analyzed coastal zone. The analysis was based on observational data for the Kamchatka tsunami of 1952, which was catastrophic for the shores of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. The data used were for Pearl Harbor, Honolulu and Hilo. The processing method involved breakdown of the record into the signal at the source and the impulse function for penetration of the wave into a bay. it was found that the record can be represented in the form of the convolution of the source function common for all the records of one tsunami and the specific impulse function for the propagation path specific for each bay. It was found that the signal at the tsunami source is a periodic process with beats of great duration with a relatively narrow spectrum. The impulse function for the paths for closed bays contains a small number of oscillations and varies in characteristic times on the order of 1 to 1.5 hours. The characteristic time of tsunami filling of a bay is important to know for shielding the bay against a tsunami wave.

  10. CASCO BAY PLAN

    EPA Science Inventory

    Casco Bay lies at the heart of Maine's most populated area. The health of its waters, wetlands, and wildlife depend in large part on the activities of the quarter-million residents who live in its watershed. Less than 30 years ago, portions of Casco Bay were off-limits to recr...

  11. 78 FR 62293 - Safety Zone, Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display, Oyster Bay; Oyster Bay, NY

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-15

    ... Safety Zone, Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display, Oyster Bay; Oyster Bay, NY AGENCY: Coast... zone on the navigable waters of Oyster Bay near Oyster Bay, NY for the Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary... Oyster Festival 30th Anniversary Fireworks Display is scheduled for October 19, 2013 and is one of...

  12. Chesapeake Bay: Introduction to an Ecosystem.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

    The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the contiguous United States. The Bay and its tidal tributaries make up the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. This document, which focuses of various aspects of this ecosystem, is divided into four major parts. The first part traces the geologic history of the Bay, describes the overall physical structure of…

  13. Coastal upwelling by wind-driven forcing in Jervis Bay, New South Wales: A numerical study for 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Youn-Jong; Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Wang, Xiao Hua; Jiang, Donghui

    2018-06-01

    The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was used to investigate an upwelling event in Jervis Bay, New South Wales (SE Australia), with varying wind directions and strengths. The POM was adopted with a downscaling approach for the regional ocean model one-way nested to a global ocean model. The upwelling event was detected from the observed wind data and satellite sea surface temperature images. The validated model reproduced the upwelling event showing the input of bottom cold water driven by wind to the bay, its subsequent deflection to the south, and its outcropping to the surface along the west and south coasts. Nevertheless, the behavior of the bottom water that intruded into the bay varied with different wind directions and strengths. Upwelling-favorable wind directions for flushing efficiency within the bay were ranked in the following order: N (0°; northerly) > NNE (30°; northeasterly) > NW (315°; northwesterly) > NE (45°; northeasterly) > ENE (60°; northeasterly). Increasing wind strengths also enhance cold water penetration and water exchange. It was determined that wind-driven downwelling within the bay, which occurred with NNE, NE and ENE winds, played a key role in blocking the intrusion of the cold water upwelled through the bay entrance. A northerly wind stress higher than 0.3 N m-2 was required for the cold water to reach the northern innermost bay.

  14. Quantifying groundwater’s role in delaying improvements to Chesapeake Bay water quality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, Ward E.; Pope, Jason P.

    2013-01-01

    A study has been undertaken to determine the time required for the effects of nitrogen-reducing best management practices (BMPs) implemented at the land surface to reach the Chesapeake Bay via groundwater transport to streams. To accomplish this, a nitrogen mass-balance regression (NMBR) model was developed and applied to seven watersheds on the Delmarva Peninsula. The model included the distribution of groundwater return times obtained from a regional groundwater-flow (GWF) model, the history of nitrogen application at the land surface over the last century, and parameters that account for denitrification. The model was (1) able to reproduce nitrate concentrations in streams and wells over time, including a recent decline in the rate at which concentrations have been increasing, and (2) used to forecast future nitrogen delivery from the Delmarva Peninsula to the Bay given different scenarios of nitrogen load reduction to the water table. The relatively deep porous aquifers of the Delmarva yield longer groundwater return times than those reported earlier for western parts of the Bay watershed. Accordingly, several decades will be required to see the full effects of current and future BMPs. The magnitude of this time lag is critical information for Chesapeake Bay watershed managers and stakeholders.

  15. 75 FR 16005 - Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Port of Coos Bay Railroad Bridge, Coos Bay, North Bend, OR

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-31

    ...-AA09 Drawbridge Operation Regulation; Port of Coos Bay Railroad Bridge, Coos Bay, North Bend, OR AGENCY... regulation for the Coos Bay Railroad Bridge, Coos Bay, mile 9.0, at North Bend, Oregon to delete the... necessary to make the sound signals used at the bridge consistent with other bridges in the area and to...

  16. Minimum Bayes risk image correlation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minter, T. C., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of designing a matched filter for image correlation will be treated as a statistical pattern recognition problem. It is shown that, by minimizing a suitable criterion, a matched filter can be estimated which approximates the optimum Bayes discriminant function in a least-squares sense. It is well known that the use of the Bayes discriminant function in target classification minimizes the Bayes risk, which in turn directly minimizes the probability of a false fix. A fast Fourier implementation of the minimum Bayes risk correlation procedure is described.

  17. Sedimentation and bathymetric change in San Pablo Bay, 1856-1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaffe, Bruce E.; Smith, Richard E.; Torresan, Laura Zink

    1998-01-01

    A long-term perspective of erosion and deposition in San Francisco Bay is vital to understanding and managing wetland change, harbor and channel siltation, and other sediment-related phenomena such as particle and particle-associated substance (pollutants, trace metals, etc.) transport and deposition. A quantitative comparison of historical hydrographic surveys provides this perspective. This report presents results of such a comparison for San Pablo Bay, California. Six hydrographic surveys from 1856 to 1983 were analyzed to determine long-term changes in the sediment system of San Pablo Bay. Each survey was gridded using surface modeling software. Changes between survey periods were computed by differencing grids. Patterns and volumes of erosion and deposition in the Bay are derived from difference grids. More than 350 million cubic meters of sediment was deposited in San Pablo Bay from 1856 to 1983. This is equivalent to a Baywide accumulation rate of approximately 1 cm/yr. However, sediment deposition was not constant over time or throughout the Bay. Over two-thirds of that sediment was debris from hydraulic mining that accumulated from 1856 to 1887. During this period, deposition occurred in nearly the entire Bay. In contrast, from 1951 to 1983 much of the Bay changed from being depositional to erosional as sediment supply diminished and currents and waves continued to remove sediment from the Bay. The decrease in sediment supply is likely the result of upstream flood-control and water-distribution projects that have reduced peak flows, which are responsible for the greatest sediment transport. One consequence of the change in sedimentation was a loss of about half of the tidal flat areas from the late 1800's to the 1980's. Change in sedimentation must also have affected flow in the Bay, areas where polluted sediments were deposited, exchange of sediment between the nearshore and wetlands, and wave energy reaching the shoreline that was available to erode

  18. Defining a data management strategy for USGS Chesapeake Bay studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ladino, Cassandra

    2013-01-01

    The mission of U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Chesapeake Bay studies is to provide integrated science for improved understanding and management of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Collective USGS efforts in the Chesapeake Bay watershed began in the 1980s, and by the mid-1990s the USGS adopted the watershed as one of its national place-based study areas. Great focus and effort by the USGS have been directed toward Chesapeake Bay studies for almost three decades. The USGS plays a key role in using “ecosystem-based adaptive management, which will provide science to improve the efficiency and accountability of Chesapeake Bay Program activities” (Phillips, 2011). Each year USGS Chesapeake Bay studies produce published research, monitoring data, and models addressing aspects of bay restoration such as, but not limited to, fish health, water quality, land-cover change, and habitat loss. The USGS is responsible for collaborating and sharing this information with other Federal agencies and partners as described under the President’s Executive Order 13508—Strategy for Protecting and Restoring the Chesapeake Bay Watershed signed by President Obama in 2009. Historically, the USGS Chesapeake Bay studies have relied on national USGS databases to store only major nationally available sources of data such as streamflow and water-quality data collected through local monitoring programs and projects, leaving a multitude of other important project data out of the data management process. This practice has led to inefficient methods of finding Chesapeake Bay studies data and underutilization of data resources. Data management by definition is “the business functions that develop and execute plans, policies, practices and projects that acquire, control, protect, deliver and enhance the value of data and information.” (Mosley, 2008a). In other words, data management is a way to preserve, integrate, and share data to address the needs of the Chesapeake Bay studies to better

  19. Sentimental analysis of Amazon reviews using naïve bayes on laptop products with MongoDB and R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamal Hassan, Mohan; Prasanth Shakthi, Sana; Sasikala, R.

    2017-11-01

    Start In Today’s era the e-commerce is developing rapidly these years, buying products on-line has become more and more fashionable owing to its variety of options, low cost value (high discounts) and quick supply systems, so abundant folks intend to do online shopping. In the meantime the standard and delivery of merchandise is uneven, fake branded products are delivered. We use product users review comments about product and review about retailers from Amazon as data set and classify review text by subjectivity/objectivity and negative/positive attitude of buyer. Such reviews are helpful to some extent, promising both the shoppers and products makers. This paper presents an empirical study of efficacy of classifying product review by tagging the keyword. In the present study, we tend to analyse the fundamentals of determining, positive and negative approach towards the product. Thus we hereby propose completely different approaches by removing the unstructured data and then classifying comments employing Naive Bayes algorithm.

  20. Predictions of BuChE inhibitors using support vector machine and naive Bayesian classification techniques in drug discovery.

    PubMed

    Fang, Jiansong; Yang, Ranyao; Gao, Li; Zhou, Dan; Yang, Shengqian; Liu, Ai-Lin; Du, Guan-hua

    2013-11-25

    Butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE, EC 3.1.1.8) is an important pharmacological target for Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment. However, the currently available BuChE inhibitor screening assays are expensive, labor-intensive, and compound-dependent. It is necessary to develop robust in silico methods to predict the activities of BuChE inhibitors for the lead identification. In this investigation, support vector machine (SVM) models and naive Bayesian models were built to discriminate BuChE inhibitors (BuChEIs) from the noninhibitors. Each molecule was initially represented in 1870 structural descriptors (1235 from ADRIANA.Code, 334 from MOE, and 301 from Discovery studio). Correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection method were applied to figure out activity-related descriptors for prediction models. Additionally, structural fingerprint descriptors were added to improve the predictive ability of models, which were measured by cross-validation, a test set validation with 1001 compounds and an external test set validation with 317 diverse chemicals. The best two models gave Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.9551 and 0.9550 for the test set and 0.9132 and 0.9221 for the external test set. To demonstrate the practical applicability of the models in virtual screening, we screened an in-house data set with 3601 compounds, and 30 compounds were selected for further bioactivity assay. The assay results showed that 10 out of 30 compounds exerted significant BuChE inhibitory activities with IC50 values ranging from 0.32 to 22.22 μM, at which three new scaffolds as BuChE inhibitors were identified for the first time. To our best knowledge, this is the first report on BuChE inhibitors using machine learning approaches. The models generated from SVM and naive Bayesian approaches successfully predicted BuChE inhibitors. The study proved the feasibility of a new method for predicting bioactivities of ligands and discovering novel lead compounds.

  1. Bay BC's: A Multidisciplinary Approach To Teaching about the Chesapeake Bay.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slattery, Britt Eckhardt

    The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in North America, providing food and habitat for an abundance of fish and wildlife. This booklet provides lesson plans for lower elementary students introducing the Chesapeake, its inhabitants, and pollution problems, and suggesting ways that individuals can contribute to the Bay's restoration. Background…

  2. 75 FR 17329 - Safety Zone; Big Bay Fourth of July Fireworks, San Diego Bay, San Diego, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-06

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Big Bay Fourth of July Fireworks, San Diego Bay, San Diego, CA AGENCY: Coast Guard... safety zone on the navigable waters of the San Diego Bay in support of the Big Bay July Fourth Show to Benefit the San Diego Armed Services YMCA. This temporary safety zone is necessary to provide for the...

  3. Exploring the Autonomous Economic World of Children: A Mixed Methods Study of Kids' Naive Economic Theories Incorporating Ethnographic and Behavioral Economics Methodologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jennings, Amanda Brooke

    2017-01-01

    Children construct meaning from their economic experiences in the form of naive theories and use these theories to explain the relationships between their actions and the outcomes. Inevitably, due to their lack of economic literacy, these theories will be incomplete. Through curriculum design that acknowledges and addresses these naive theories,…

  4. In Vitro Measles Virus Infection of Human Lymphocyte Subsets Demonstrates High Susceptibility and Permissiveness of both Naive and Memory B Cells

    PubMed Central

    Laksono, Brigitta M.; Grosserichter-Wagener, Christina; de Vries, Rory D.; Langeveld, Simone A. G.; Brem, Maarten D.; van Dongen, Jacques J. M.; Koopmans, Marion P. G.

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Measles is characterized by a transient immune suppression, leading to an increased risk of opportunistic infections. Measles virus (MV) infection of immune cells is mediated by the cellular receptor CD150, expressed by subsets of lymphocytes, dendritic cells, macrophages, and thymocytes. Previous studies showed that human and nonhuman primate memory T cells express higher levels of CD150 than naive cells and are more susceptible to MV infection. However, limited information is available about the CD150 expression and relative susceptibility to MV infection of B-cell subsets. In this study, we assessed the susceptibility and permissiveness of naive and memory T- and B-cell subsets from human peripheral blood or tonsils to in vitro MV infection. Our study demonstrates that naive and memory B cells express CD150, but at lower frequencies than memory T cells. Nevertheless, both naive and memory B cells proved to be highly permissive to MV infection. Furthermore, we assessed the susceptibility and permissiveness of various functionally distinct T and B cells, such as helper T (TH) cell subsets and IgG- and IgA-positive memory B cells, in peripheral blood and tonsils. We demonstrated that TH1TH17 cells and plasma and germinal center B cells were the subsets most susceptible and permissive to MV infection. Our study suggests that both naive and memory B cells, along with several other antigen-experienced lymphocytes, are important target cells of MV infection. Depletion of these cells potentially contributes to the pathogenesis of measles immune suppression. IMPORTANCE Measles is associated with immune suppression and is often complicated by bacterial pneumonia, otitis media, or gastroenteritis. Measles virus infects antigen-presenting cells and T and B cells, and depletion of these cells may contribute to lymphopenia and immune suppression. Measles has been associated with follicular exhaustion in lymphoid tissues in humans and nonhuman primates, emphasizing

  5. Diurnal variation of oxygen and carbonate system parameters in Tampa Bay and Florida Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yates, K.K.; Dufore, C.; Smiley, N.; Jackson, C.; Halley, R.B.

    2007-01-01

    Oxygen and carbonate system parameters were measured, in situ, over diurnal cycles in Tampa Bay and Florida Bay, Florida. All system parameters showed distinct diurnal trends in Tampa Bay with an average range of diurnal variation of 39.1 μmol kg− 1 for total alkalinity, 165.1 μmol kg− 1 for total CO2, 0.22 for pH, 0.093 mmol L− 1 for dissolved oxygen, and 218.1 μatm for pCO2. Average range of diurnal variation for system parameters in Tampa Bay was 73% to 93% of the seasonal range of variability for dissolved oxygen and pH. All system parameters measured in Florida Bay showed distinct variation over diurnal time-scales. However, clear diurnal trends were less evident. The average range of diurnal variability in Florida Bay was 62.8 μmol kg− 1 for total alkalinity, 130.4 μmol kg− 1 for total CO2, 0.13 for pH, 0.053 mmol L− 1 for dissolved oxygen, and 139.8 μatm for pCO2. The average range of diurnal variation was 14% to 102% of the seasonal ranges for these parameters. Diurnal variability in system parameters was most influenced by primary productivity and respiration of benthic communities in Tampa Bay, and by precipitation and dissolution of calcium carbonate in Florida Bay. Our data indicate that use of seasonal data sets without careful consideration of diurnal variability may impart significant error in calculations of annual carbon and oxygen budgets. These observations reinforce the need for higher temporal resolution measurements of oxygen and carbon system parameters in coastal ecosystems.

  6. Discharge between San Antonio Bay and Aransas Bay, southern Gulf Coast, Texas, May-September 1999

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    East, Jeffery W.

    2001-01-01

    Along the Gulf Coast of Texas, many estuaries and bays are important habitat and nurseries for aquatic life. San Antonio Bay and Aransas Bay, located about 50 and 30 miles northeast, respectively, of Corpus Christi, are two important estuarine nurseries on the southern Gulf Coast of Texas (fig. 1). According to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, “Almost 80 percent of the seagrasses [along the Texas Gulf Coast] are located in the Laguna Madre, an estuary that begins just south of Corpus Christi Bay and runs southward 140 miles to South Padre Island. Most of the remaining seagrasses, about 45,000 acres, are located in the heavily traveled San Antonio, Aransas and Corpus Christi Bay areas” (Shook, 2000).Population growth has led to greater demands on water supplies in Texas. The Texas Water Development Board, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, and the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission have the cooperative task of determining inflows required to maintain the ecological health of the State’s streams, rivers, bays, and estuaries. To determine these inflow requirements, the three agencies collect data and conduct studies on the need for instream flows and freshwater/ saline water inflows to Texas estuaries.To assist in the determination of freshwater inflow requirements, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, conducted a hydrographic survey of discharge (flow) between San Antonio Bay and Aransas Bay during the period May–September 1999. Automated instrumentation and acoustic technology were used to maximize the amount and quality of data that were collected, while minimizing personnel requirements. This report documents the discharge measured at two sites between the bays during May–September 1999 and describes the influences of meteorologic (wind and tidal) and hydrologic (freshwater inflow) conditions on discharge between the two bays. The movement of water between the bays is

  7. Tidal inlet response to sediment infilling of the associated bay and possible implications of human activities: the Marennes-Oléron Bay and the Maumusson Inlet, France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertin, Xavier; Chaumillon, Eric; Sottolichio, Aldo; Pedreros, Rodrigo

    2005-06-01

    Tidal inlet characteristics are controlled by wave energy, tidal range, tidal prism, sediment supply and direction and rates of sand delivered to the inlet. This paper deals with the relations between inlet and lagoon evolutions, linked by the tidal prism. Our study is focused on the Maumusson Inlet and the Marennes-Oléron Bay (first oyster farming area in Europe), located on the western coast of France. The tidal range (2-6 m) and wave climate (mean height: 1.5 m) place this tidal inlet system in the mixed energy (tide, waves), tide-dominated category. The availability of high-resolution bathymetric data since 1824 permits to characterise and quantify accurately morphological changes of both the inlet and the tidal bay. Since 1824, sediment filling of the tidal bay has led to a 20% decrease in its water volume, and a 35% reduction of the inlet throat section. Furthermore, the bay is subjected to a very high anthropic pressure, mainly related to oyster farming. Thus, both natural and human-related processes seem relevant to explain high sedimentation rates. Current measurements, hydrodynamic modelling and cross-sectional area of the inlet throat are used in order to quantify tidal prism changes since 1824. Both flood and ebb tidal prism decreased by 35%. Decrease in the Marennes-Oléron Bay water volume is inferred to be responsible for a part of tidal prism decrease at the inlet. Tidal prisms decrease may also be explained by an increase in frictional resistance to tidal wave propagation, due to a general shoaling and oyster farms in the bay. A conceptual model is proposed, taking into account natural and human-related sedimentation processes, and explaining tidal inlet response to tidal bay evolutions.

  8. Achieving ventricular rate control using metoprolol in β-blocker-naive patients vs patients on chronic β-blocker therapy.

    PubMed

    Kuang, Patricia; Mah, Nathan D; Barton, Cassie A; Miura, Andrea J; Tanas, Laura R; Ran, Ran

    2016-03-01

    The objective of the study is to evaluate the difference in ventricular rate control using an intravenous (IV) metoprolol regimen commonly used in clinical practice in patients receiving chronic β-blocker therapy compared to patients considered β-blocker naive admitted to the emergency department (ED) for atrial fibrillation (AF) with rapid ventricular rate. A single-center retrospective cohort study of adult ED patients who were admitted with a rapid ventricular rate of 120 beats per minute (bpm) or greater and treated with IV metoprolol was performed. Rate control was defined as either a decrease in ventricular rate to less than 100 bpm or a 20% decrease in heart rate to less than 120 bpm after metoprolol administration. Patient demographics, differences in length of stay, and adverse events were recorded. A total of 398 patients were included in the study, with 79.4% (n=316) receiving chronic β-blocker therapy. Patients considered to be β-blocker naive were more likely to achieve successful rate control with IV metoprolol compared to patients on chronic β-blocker therapy (56.1% vs 42.4%; P=.03). β-Blocker-naive status was associated with a shorter length of stay in comparison to patients receiving chronic β-blocker therapy (1.79 vs 2.64 days; P<.01). Intravenous metoprolol for the treatment of atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular rate was associated with a higher treatment response in patients considered β-blocker naive compared to patients receiving chronic β-blocker therapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Long Wave Runup in Asymmetric Bays and in Fjords With Two Separate Heads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raz, Amir; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Rybkin, Alexei; Pelinovsky, Efim

    2018-03-01

    Modeling of tsunamis in glacial fjords prompts us to evaluate applicability of the cross-sectionally averaged nonlinear shallow water equations to model propagation and runup of long waves in asymmetrical bays and also in fjords with two heads. We utilize the Tuck-Hwang transformation, initially introduced for the plane beaches and currently generalized for bays with arbitrary cross section, to transform the nonlinear governing equations into a linear equation. The solution of the linearized equation describing the runup at the shore line is computed by taking into account the incident wave at the toe of the last sloping segment. We verify our predictions against direct numerical simulation of the 2-D shallow water equations and show that our solution is valid both for bays with an asymmetric L-shaped cross section, and for fjords with two heads—bays with a W-shaped cross section.

  10. Multidisciplinary Investigations of Submarine Flow to Biscayne Bay, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halley, R. B.; Reich, C. D.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Langevin, C. D.

    2005-05-01

    Biscayne Bay and Biscayne National Park (BNP) are located next to the Miami-Dade urban complex and are adjacent to the Dade County South Dade Landfill Facility and the Miami-Dade Water and Sewer South District Plant. The base of the landfill is lined to separate it from the underlying Miami Limestone, the host rock for the surficial Biscayne Aquifer. The sewage-treatment facility injects treated sewage into the lower Florida Aquifer (750 m) that is overlain by an aquitard termed the Middle Confining Unit (450 m). The Biscayne Aquifer (up to 50 m thick) borders the western margin of BNP, and the Floridan Aquifer underlies the entire park. There is concern about leakage of contaminated aquifer water into BNP and its potential effects on water quality. Groundwater flux to Biscayne Bay is being studied using pressure measurements and geochemical analyses from submarine wells, electromagnetic seepage meters, streaming resistivity profiling, and local and regional model simulations. Both seepage meters and water analyses provide point information that can be placed into the regional context provided by flow models and geochemical and geophysical profiling, which, in turn, constrain the groundwater contribution. Water samples were collected approximately quarterly from August 2002 until March 2004 from submarine wells along a transect through Biscayne Bay and across the reef to the shelf edge. Samples were analyzed for conductivity (salinity), dissolved oxygen, temperature, redox potential, nutrients, metals, strontium isotopes, radon, sulfate, and wastewater compounds. Low-salinity water was identified from nearshore wells and indicates seepage from the Biscayne Aquifer and/or surface-water intrusion into the rocks along western Biscayne Bay. Analyses of water samples (n = 109) collected from wells across the Florida shelf show no consistent evidence of wastewater contaminants occurring in groundwater beneath BNP. No significant leakage from the Floridan Aquifer

  11. Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van der Wegen, M.; Dastgheib, A.; Jaffe, B.E.; Roelvink, D.

    2011-01-01

    Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of "morphodynamic spin-up" in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic behavior of the system. The present paper proposes a methodology to generate bed composition of multiple sand and/or mud fractions that can act as the initial condition for the process-based numerical model Delft3D. The bed composition generation (BCG) run does not include bed level changes, but does permit the redistribution of multiple sediment fractions over the modeled domain. The model applies the concept of an active layer that may differ in sediment composition above an underlayer with fixed composition. In the case of a BCG run, the bed level is kept constant, whereas the bed composition can change. The approach is applied to San Pablo Bay in California, USA. Model results show that the BCG run reallocates sand and mud fractions over the model domain. Initially, a major sediment reallocation takes place, but development rates decrease in the longer term. Runs that take the outcome of a BCG run as a starting point lead to more gradual morphodynamic development. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of variations in the morphological factor, the active layer thickness, and wind waves. An important but difficult to characterize criterion for a successful application of a BCG run is that it should not lead to a bed composition that fixes the bed so that it dominates the "natural" morphodynamic development of the system. Future research will focus on a decadal morphodynamic hindcast and comparison with measured bathymetries in San Pablo Bay so that the proposed methodology can be tested and optimized. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

  12. Anterior Cingulate Volumetric Alterations in Treatment-Naive Adults with ADHD: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Makris, Nikos; Seidman, Larry J.; Valera, Eve M.; Biederman, Joseph; Monuteaux, Michael C.; Kennedy, David N.; Caviness, Verne S., Jr.; Bush, George; Crum, Katherine; Brown, Ariel B.; Faraone, Stephen V.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: We sought to examine preliminary results of brain alterations in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in treatment-naive adults with ADHD. The ACC is a central brain node for the integration of cognitive control and allocation of attention, affect and drive. Thus its anatomical alteration may give rise to impulsivity, hyperactivity and…

  13. Bathymetry and digital elevation models of Coyote Creek and Alviso Slough, South San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foxgrover, Amy C.; Finlayson, David P.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Fregoso, Theresa A.

    2012-01-05

    In 2010 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center completed three cruises to map the bathymetry of the main channel and shallow intertidal mudflats in the southernmost part of south San Francisco Bay. The three surveys were merged to generate comprehensive maps of Coyote Creek (from Calaveras Point east to the railroad bridge) and Alviso Slough (from the bay to the town of Alviso) to establish baseline bathymetry prior to the breaching of levees adjacent to Alviso and Guadalupe Sloughs as part of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (http://www.southbayrestoration.org). Since 2010 the USGS has conducted twelve additional surveys to monitor bathymetric change in this region as restoration progresses.The bathymetry surveys were conducted using the state-of-the-art research vessel R/V Parke Snavely outfitted with an interferometric sidescan sonar for swath mapping in extremely shallow water. This publication provides high-resolution bathymetric data collected by the USGS. For the 2010 baseline survey we have merged the bathymetry with aerial lidar data that were collected for the USGS during the same time period to create a seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area. The series of bathymetry datasets are provided at 1 m resolution and the 2010 bathymetric/topographic DEM at 2 m resolution. The data are formatted as both X, Y, Z text files and ESRI Arc ASCII files that are accompanied by Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) compliant metadata.

  14. Numerical model on the material circulation for coastal sediment in Ago Bay, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anggara Kasih, G. A.; Chiba, Satoshi; Yamagata, Youichi; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Haraguchi, Koichi

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we study the sediment in Ago Bay from the aspects of the biogeochemical cycle and the mass transport by means of a numerical model. We developed the model by adopting the basic idea of Berg et al. (Berg, P., Rysgaard, S., Thamdrup, B., 2003. Dynamic modeling of early diagenesis and nutrient cycling: A case study in Artic marine sediment. Am. J. Sci. 303, 905-955.), Fossing et al. [Fossing, H., Berg, P., Thamdrup, B., Rysgaard, S., Sorensen, H.M., Nielsen, K.A., 2004. Model set-up for an oxygen and nutrient flux for Aarhus Bay (Denmark). National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) Technical Report No. 483. Ministry of the Environment, Denmark, 65 pp.] and Sayama [Sayama, M., 2000. Analytical technique for the nitrogen circulation in the boundary layer of the coastal sediment. Isao Koike edited, Japan Environmental Management Association for Industry, Tokyo, pp. 51-103. (in Japanese)]. In the model, the biogeochemical processes involve five primary reactions and sixteen secondary reactions. The primary reactions describe the degradation of organic matters, and the secondary reactions describe the miscellaneous reactions such as re-oxidation of reduced species formed as a product from primary reactions, and the crystallizing process of oxidized particles. The transports process includes molecular diffusion, advection, bioturbation and bioirrigation. The model performance is verified by comparing the model predicted data to the observed data. The comparison involves data of vertical distribution of material concentrations and the material fluxes at the sediment-water interface. The comparison shows that the model can reproduce the observed vertical profile and the observed material fluxes at the sediment-water interface. The material circulation result shows that about 42% of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is mineralized by sulfate reduction, around 41% by oxygen respiration, and the remaining is mineralized by denitrification, manganese and iron

  15. 75 FR 11837 - Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Commodity Credit Corporation Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative AGENCY...: Notice of availability of program funds for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative. SUMMARY: The... through the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Initiative for agricultural producers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed...

  16. Urban Greening Bay Area

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information about the San Francisco Bay Water Quality Project (SFBWQP) Urban Greening Bay Area, a large-scale effort to re-envision urban landscapes to include green infrastructure (GI) making communities more livable and reducing stormwater runoff.

  17. A Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayes Classifier for Disease Diagnosis with Microbial Compositions.

    PubMed

    Gao, Xiang; Lin, Huaiying; Dong, Qunfeng

    2017-01-01

    Dysbiosis of microbial communities is associated with various human diseases, raising the possibility of using microbial compositions as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. We have developed a Bayes classifier by modeling microbial compositions with Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which are widely used to model multicategorical count data with extra variation. The parameters of the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions are estimated from training microbiome data sets based on maximum likelihood. The posterior probability of a microbiome sample belonging to a disease or healthy category is calculated based on Bayes' theorem, using the likelihood values computed from the estimated Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, as well as a prior probability estimated from the training microbiome data set or previously published information on disease prevalence. When tested on real-world microbiome data sets, our method, called DMBC (for Dirichlet-multinomial Bayes classifier), shows better classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian microbiome classifier based on a Dirichlet-multinomial mixture model and the popular random forest method. The advantage of DMBC is its built-in automatic feature selection, capable of identifying a subset of microbial taxa with the best classification accuracy between different classes of samples based on cross-validation. This unique ability enables DMBC to maintain and even improve its accuracy at modeling species-level taxa. The R package for DMBC is freely available at https://github.com/qunfengdong/DMBC. IMPORTANCE By incorporating prior information on disease prevalence, Bayes classifiers have the potential to estimate disease probability better than other common machine-learning methods. Thus, it is important to develop Bayes classifiers specifically tailored for microbiome data. Our method shows higher classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian classifier and the popular random forest method, and thus provides an

  18. The Chesapeake Bay impact structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powars, David S.; Edwards, Lucy E.; Gohn, Gregory S.; Horton, J. Wright

    2015-10-28

    About 35 million years ago, during late Eocene time, a 2-mile-wide asteroid or comet smashed into Earth in what is now the lower Chesapeake Bay in Virginia. The oceanic impact vaporized, melted, fractured, and (or) displaced the target rocks and sediments and sent billions of tons of water, sediments, and rocks into the air. Glassy particles of solidified melt rock rained down as far away as Texas and the Caribbean. Models suggest that even up to 50 miles away the velocity of the intensely hot air blast was greater than 1,500 miles per hour, and ground shaking was equivalent to an earthquake greater than magnitude 8.0 on the Richter scale. Large tsunamis affected most of the North Atlantic basin. The Chesapeake Bay impact structure is among the 20 largest known impact structures on Earth.

  19. Understanding the Flushing Capability of Bellingham Bay and Its Implication on Bottom Water Hypoxia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing

    2015-05-05

    In this study, an unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) was used to simulate hydrodynamic circulation and assess the flushing capability in Bellingham Bay, Washington, USA. The model was reasonably calibrated against field observations for water level, velocity and salinity, and was further used to calculate residence time distributions in the study site. The model results suggest that, despite the large tidal ranges (~4 m during spring tide), tidal currents are relatively weak in Bellingham Bay with surface currents generally below 0.5 m/s. The local residence time in Bellingham Bay varies from to near zero to as long as 15more » days, depending on the location and river flow condition. In general, Bellingham Bay is a well-flushed coastal embayment affected by freshwater discharge, tides, wind, and density-driven circulation. The basin-wide global residence time ranges from 5-7 days. The model results also provide useful information on possible causes of the emerging summertime hypoxia problem in the north central region of Bellingham Bay. It was concluded that the formation of the bottom hypoxic water should result from the increased consumption rate of oxygen in the bottom oceanic inflow with low dissolved oxygen by organic matters accumulated at the regions characterized with relatively long residence time in summer months.« less

  20. Development of an integrated ecosystem model to determine effectiveness of potential watershed management projects on improving Old Tampa Bay

    Treesearch

    Edward T. Sherwood; Holly Greening; Lizanne Garcia; Kris Kaufman; Tony Janicki; Ray Pribble; Brett Cunningham; Steve Peene; Jim Fitzpatrick; Kellie Dixon; Mike Wessel

    2016-01-01

    The Tampa Bay estuary has undergone a remarkable ecosystem recovery since the 1980s despite continued population growth within the region. However during this time, the Old Tampa Bay (OTB) segment has lagged behind the rest of the Bay’s recovery relative to improvements in overall water quality and seagrass coverage. In 2011, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program, in...

  1. Shoaling of nonlinear internal waves in Massachusetts Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scotti, A.; Beardsley, R.C.; Butman, B.; Pineda, J.

    2008-01-01

    The shoaling of the nonlinear internal tide in Massachusetts Bay is studied with a fully nonlinear and nonhydrostatic model. The results are compared with current and temperature observations obtained during the August 1998 Massachusetts Bay Internal Wave Experiment and observations from a shorter experiment which took place in September 2001. The model shows how the approaching nonlinear undular bore interacts strongly with a shoaling bottom, offshore of where KdV theory predicts polarity switching should occur. It is shown that the shoaling process is dominated by nonlinearity, and the model results are interpreted with the aid of a two-layer nonlinear but hydrostatic model. After interacting with the shoaling bottom, the undular bore emerges on the shallow shelf inshore of the 30-m isobath as a nonlinear internal tide with a range of possible shapes, all of which are found in the available observational record. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. A coastal three-dimensional water quality model of nitrogen in Jiaozhou Bay linking field experiments with modelling.

    PubMed

    Lu, Dongliang; Li, Keqiang; Liang, Shengkang; Lin, Guohong; Wang, Xiulin

    2017-01-15

    With anthropogenic changes, the structure and quantity of nitrogen nutrients have changed in coastal ocean, which has dramatically influenced the water quality. Water quality modeling can contribute to the necessary scientific grounding of coastal management. In this paper, some of the dynamic functions and parameters of nitrogen were calibrated based on coastal field experiments covering the dynamic nitrogen processes in Jiaozhou Bay (JZB), including phytoplankton growth, respiration, and mortality; particulate nitrogen degradation; and dissolved organic nitrogen remineralization. The results of the field experiments and box model simulations showed good agreement (RSD=20%±2% and SI=0.77±0.04). A three-dimensional water quality model of nitrogen (3DWQMN) in JZB was improved and the dynamic parameters were updated according to field experiments. The 3DWQMN was validated based on observed data from 2012 to 2013, with good agreement (RSD=27±4%, SI=0.68±0.06, and K=0.48±0.04), which testifies to the model's credibility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Concentration of PSP (Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning) Toxin On Shellfish From Inner Ambon Bay and Kao Bay North Halmahera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pello, F. S.; Haumahu, S.; Huliselan, N. V.; Tuapattinaja, M. A.

    2017-10-01

    The Inner Ambon Bay and Kao Bay have potential on fisheries resources which one of them is molluscs. Molluscs especially for class bivalve have economical values and are consumed by coastal community. The research had been done to analyze saxitoxin (STX) concentration on bivalves from Kao Bay and Inner Ambon Bay. The Saxitoxin Elisa Test Kit Protocol was used to determine saxitoxin concentration. The measurement showed that the highest concentration of saxitoxin (392.42 µg STXeq/100g shellfish meat) was Gafrarium tumidum from Ambon Bay, whereas concentration of saxitoxin (321.83 µg STXeq/100g shellfish meat) was Mactra mera from Kao Bay

  4. 77 FR 30443 - Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-23

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce, St. Lawrence River, Alexandria Bay, NY AGENCY... Commerce fireworks display. The safety zone established by this proposed rule is necessary to protect... spectators and vessels during the Alexandria Bay Chamber of Commerce fireworks display. Regulatory Analyses...

  5. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Chesapeake Bay Forecast System: Oxygen Prediction for the Sustainable Ecosystem Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathukumalli, B.; Long, W.; Zhang, X.; Wood, R.; Murtugudde, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Forecast System (CBFS) is a flexible, end-to-end expert prediction tool for decision makers that will provide customizable, user-specified predictions and projections of the region’s climate, air and water quality, local chemistry, and ecosystems at days to decades. As a part of CBFS, the long-term water quality data were collected and assembled to develop ecological models for the sustainable management of the Chesapeake Bay. Cultural eutrophication depletes oxygen levels in this ecosystem particularly in summer which has several negative implications on the structure and function of ecosystem. In order to understand dynamics and prediction of spatially-explicit oxygen levels in the Bay, an empirical process based ecological model is developed with long-term control variables (water temperature, salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus). Statistical validation methods were employed to demonstrate usability of predictions for management purposes and the predicted oxygen levels are quite faithful to observations. The predicted oxygen values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the bay (for example, bass fishing). Furthermore, this work can also be used to predict extent of hypoxia/anoxia not only from anthropogenic nutrient pollution, but also from global warming. Some hindcasts and forecasts are discussed along with the ongoing efforts at a mechanistic ecosystem model to provide prognostic oxygen predictions and projections and upper trophic modeling using an energetics approach.

  7. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

  8. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

    2012-01-01

    Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

  9. Description of gravity cores from San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait, San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woodrow, Donald L.; John L. Chin,; Wong, Florence L.; Fregoso, Theresa A.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2017-06-27

    Seventy-two gravity cores were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1990, 1991, and 2000 from San Pablo Bay and Carquinez Strait, California. The gravity cores collected within San Pablo Bay contain bioturbated laminated silts and sandy clays, whole and broken bivalve shells (mostly mussels), fossil tube structures, and fine-grained plant or wood fragments. Gravity cores from the channel wall of Carquinez Strait east of San Pablo Bay consist of sand and clay layers, whole and broken bivalve shells (less than in San Pablo Bay), trace fossil tubes, and minute fragments of plant material.

  10. VPAC2 receptor agonist BAY 55-9837 increases SMN protein levels and moderates disease phenotype in severe spinal muscular atrophy mouse models.

    PubMed

    Hadwen, Jeremiah; MacKenzie, Duncan; Shamim, Fahad; Mongeon, Kevin; Holcik, Martin; MacKenzie, Alex; Farooq, Faraz

    2014-01-09

    Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) is one of the most common inherited causes of infant death and is caused by the loss of functional survival motor neuron (SMN) protein due to mutations or deletion in the SMN1 gene. One of the treatment strategies for SMA is to induce the expression of the protein from the homologous SMN2 gene, a rescuing paralog for SMA. Here we demonstrate the promise of pharmacological modulation of SMN2 gene by BAY 55-9837, an agonist of the vasoactive intestinal peptide receptor 2 (VPAC2), a member of G protein coupled receptor family. Treatment with BAY 55-9837 lead to induction of SMN protein levels via activation of MAPK14 or p38 pathway in vitro. Importantly, BAY 55-9837 also ameliorated disease phenotype in severe SMA mouse models. Our findings suggest the VPAC2 pathway is a potential SMA therapeutic target.

  11. Consistent Safety and Infectivity in Sporozoite Challenge Model of Plasmodium vivax in Malaria-Naive Human Volunteers

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Solarte, Yezid; Jordán-Villegas, Alejandro; Echavarría, Juan Fernando; Rocha, Leonardo; Palacios, Ricardo; Ramírez, Óscar; Vélez, Juan D.; Epstein, Judith E.; Richie, Thomas L.; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2011-01-01

    A safe and reproducible Plasmodium vivax infectious challenge method is required to evaluate the efficacy of malaria vaccine candidates. Seventeen healthy Duffy (+) and five Duffy (−) subjects were randomly allocated into three (A–C) groups and were exposed to the bites of 2–4 Anopheles albimanus mosquitoes infected with Plasmodium vivax derived from three donors. Duffy (−) subjects were included as controls for each group. Clinical manifestations of malaria and parasitemia were monitored beginning 7 days post-challenge. All Duffy (+) volunteers developed patent malaria infection within 16 days after challenge. Prepatent period determined by thick smear, was longer for Group A (median 14.5 d) than for Groups B and C (median 10 d/each). Infected volunteers recovered rapidly after treatment with no serious adverse events. The bite of as low as two P. vivax-infected mosquitoes provides safe and reliable infections in malaria-naive volunteers, suitable for assessing antimalarial and vaccine efficacy trials. PMID:21292872

  12. Chesapeake Bay TMDL Document

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This page provides the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) report for the Chesapeake Bay. It includes the executive summary, main report, and appendices. The Chesapeake Bay TMDL was established by U.S. EPA Region 3 on December 29, 2010

  13. KLF4 Nuclear Export Requires ERK Activation and Initiates Exit from Naive Pluripotency.

    PubMed

    Dhaliwal, Navroop K; Miri, Kamelia; Davidson, Scott; Tamim El Jarkass, Hala; Mitchell, Jennifer A

    2018-04-10

    Cooperative action of a transcription factor complex containing OCT4, SOX2, NANOG, and KLF4 maintains the naive pluripotent state; however, less is known about the mechanisms that disrupt this complex, initiating exit from pluripotency. We show that, as embryonic stem cells (ESCs) exit pluripotency, KLF4 protein is exported from the nucleus causing rapid decline in Nanog and Klf4 transcription; as a result, KLF4 is the first pluripotency transcription factor removed from transcription-associated complexes during differentiation. KLF4 nuclear export requires ERK activation, and phosphorylation of KLF4 by ERK initiates interaction of KLF4 with nuclear export factor XPO1, leading to KLF4 export. Mutation of the ERK phosphorylation site in KLF4 (S132) blocks KLF4 nuclear export, the decline in Nanog, Klf4, and Sox2 mRNA, and differentiation. These findings demonstrate that relocalization of KLF4 to the cytoplasm is a critical first step in exit from the naive pluripotent state and initiation of ESC differentiation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Mono-isotope Prediction for Mass Spectra Using Bayes Network.

    PubMed

    Li, Hui; Liu, Chunmei; Rwebangira, Mugizi Robert; Burge, Legand

    2014-12-01

    Mass spectrometry is one of the widely utilized important methods to study protein functions and components. The challenge of mono-isotope pattern recognition from large scale protein mass spectral data needs computational algorithms and tools to speed up the analysis and improve the analytic results. We utilized naïve Bayes network as the classifier with the assumption that the selected features are independent to predict mono-isotope pattern from mass spectrometry. Mono-isotopes detected from validated theoretical spectra were used as prior information in the Bayes method. Three main features extracted from the dataset were employed as independent variables in our model. The application of the proposed algorithm to publicMo dataset demonstrates that our naïve Bayes classifier is advantageous over existing methods in both accuracy and sensitivity.

  15. Prevalence of Dyslipidemia Among Antiretroviral-Naive HIV-Infected Individuals in China

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Yinzhong; Wang, Jiangrong; Wang, Zhenyan; Qi, Tangkai; Song, Wei; Tang, Yang; Liu, Li; Zhang, Renfang; Lu, Hongzhou

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Little is known about the epidemiological features of dyslipidemia among antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected individuals in China. We used a cross-sectional study design to estimate the prevalence of dyslipidemia in this population, and to identify risk factors associated with the presence of dyslipidemia. One thousand five hundred and eighteen antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected individuals and 347 HIV-negative subjects in China were enrolled during 2009 to 2010. Demographics and medical histories were recorded. After an overnight fast, serum samples were collected to measure lipid levels. Factors associated with the presence of dyslipidemia were analyzed by logistic regression. Mean total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) levels were lower in HIV-positive than HIV-negative subjects, but mean triglyceride (TG) was higher in HIV-positive subjects. The overall prevalence of dyslipidemia in HIV-positive and HIV-negative groups did not differ (75.6% vs. 73.7%, P = 0.580). However, the prevalence of high TC (8.4% vs. 28.2%, P < 0.001) and high LDL (8.5% vs. 62.6%, P < 0.001) was lower in HIV-positive than HIV-negative subjects, and the prevalence of high TG (33.9% vs. 17.0%, P < 0.001) and low HDL (59.6% vs. 11.2%, P < 0.001) was higher in HIV-positive than HIV-negative subjects. Logistic analysis showed that HIV positivity was significantly associated with both an increased risk of high TG and low HDL and a decreased risk of high TC and high LDL. The mean levels of TC, of LDL and of HDL showed an increasing trend with increasing CD4 count in HIV-positive subjects. Multivariable logistic regression found that lower CD4 count was significantly associated with both an increased risk of high TG and low HDL and a decreased risk of high TC in HIV-positive subjects. Among antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected Chinese adults, there was a high prevalence of dyslipidemia characterized by

  16. USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yates, K.K.; Cronin, T. M.; Crane, M.; Hansen, M.; Nayeghandi, A.; Swarzenski, P.; Edgar, T.; Brooks, G.R.; Suthard, B.; Hine, A.; Locker, S.; Willard, D.A.; Hastings, D.; Flower, B.; Hollander, D.; Larson, R.A.; Smith, K.

    2007-01-01

    Providing a web-based digital information management system of information for scientists and the public, including a system that supports the work of those officials who must make decisions that affect the state of the bay. The Tampa Bay Study is in its sixth year and will continue through September 2007. This paper presents a non-inclusive summary of key findings associated with the six primary project components listed above. Component 4 (above) is described in detail in the following chapter 13. More information on the Tampa Bay Study is available from our on-line digital information system for the Tampa Bay Study at http://gulfsci.usgs.gov.

  17. Facility Layout Problems Using Bays: A Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davoudpour, Hamid; Jaafari, Amir Ardestani; Farahani, Leila Najafabadi

    2010-06-01

    Layout design is one of the most important activities done by industrial Engineers. Most of these problems have NP hard Complexity. In a basic layout design, each cell is represented by a rectilinear, but not necessarily convex polygon. The set of fully packed adjacent polygons is known as a block layout (Asef-Vaziri and Laporte 2007). Block layout is divided by slicing tree and bay layout. In bay layout, departments are located in vertical columns or horizontal rows, bays. Bay layout is used in real worlds especially in concepts such as semiconductor and aisles. There are several reviews in facility layout; however none of them focus on bay layout. The literature analysis given here is not limited to specific considerations about bay layout design. We present a state of art review for bay layout considering some issues such as the used objectives, the techniques of solving and the integration methods in bay.

  18. 76 FR 37641 - Safety Zone; Independence Day Fireworks Celebration for the City of Half Moon Bay, Half Moon Bay, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-28

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Independence Day Fireworks Celebration for the City of Half Moon Bay, Half Moon Bay... temporary safety zone in the navigable waters of Half Moon Bay, off of Pillar Point Harbor beach, Half Moon Bay, CA in support of the Independence Day Fireworks Celebration for the City of Half Moon Bay...

  19. Interannual variability of physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay: A marine protected area in Labrador, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Best, Sara; Lundrigan, Sarah; Demirov, Entcho; Wroblewski, Joe

    2011-10-01

    Gilbert Bay on the southeast coast of Labrador is the site of the first Marine Protected Area (MPA) established in the subarctic coastal zone of eastern Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. This article presents results from a study of the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. We describe seasonal and interannual variability of the atmospheric parameters at the sea surface in the bay. The interannual variability of the atmosphere in the Gilbert Bay region is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a recent warming trend in the local climate of coastal Labrador. The related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a one-dimensional water column model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem would be favorable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of traveling across the bay by snowmobile.

  20. The comprehensive health care orientation process indicators explain hospital organisation's attractiveness: a Bayesian analysis of newly hired nurse and physician survey data.

    PubMed

    Peltokoski, Jaana; Vehviläinen-Julkunen, Katri; Pitkäaho, Taina; Mikkonen, Santtu; Miettinen, Merja

    2015-10-01

    To examine the relationship of a comprehensive health care orientation process with a hospital's attractiveness. Little is known about indicators of the employee orientation process that most likely explain a hospital organisation's attractiveness. Empirical data collected from registered nurses (n = 145) and physicians (n = 37) working in two specialised hospital districts. A Naive Bayes Classification was applied to examine the comprehensive orientation process indicators that predict hospital's attractiveness. The model was composed of five orientation process indicators: the contribution of the orientation process to nurses' and physicians' intention to stay; the defined responsibilities of the orientation process; interaction between newcomer and colleagues; responsibilities that are adapted for tasks; and newcomers' baseline knowledge assessment that should be done before the orientation phase. The Naive Bayes Classification was used to explore employee orientation process and related indicators. The model constructed provides insight that can be used in designing and implementing the orientation process to promote the hospital organisation's attractiveness. Managers should focus on developing fluently organised orientation practices based on the indicators that predict the hospital's attractiveness. For the purpose of personalised orientation, employees' baseline knowledge and competence level should be assessed before the orientation phase. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.