Sample records for narrower confidence intervals

  1. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  2. Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

    2011-06-01

    In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

  3. Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

  4. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  5. Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

    2015-06-01

    Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

    PubMed

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2018-05-01

    In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

  7. Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Du, Yunfei

    This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

  8. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  9. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  10. Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

    PubMed

    Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

    2009-01-07

    The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

  11. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  12. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  13. Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Jason E.

    A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

  14. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  15. Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

    Treesearch

    Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

    1991-01-01

    A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

  16. Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

    PubMed Central

    Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

  17. Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

    PubMed

    Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

  18. Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

    PubMed

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-02-01

    Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

  19. Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

    PubMed

    Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

    2017-02-01

    With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

  20. Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cousins, R. D.

    The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

  1. Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence

  2. A numerical approach to 14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blaauw, Maarten; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; van der Plicht, Johannes; van Geel, Bas

    2003-06-01

    14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

  3. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  4. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Deborah A.

    Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

  5. Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-08-01

    Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

  6. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  7. Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

    PubMed

    Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

    2017-11-10

    In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

    PubMed

    Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

    2018-06-22

    Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

  9. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  10. Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

    PubMed

    Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

  11. Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

    PubMed Central

    Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

  12. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  13. Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

    2018-01-01

    Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

  14. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  15. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  16. More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models

  17. Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

    2011-01-01

    The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

  18. Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zou, Guang Yong

    2007-01-01

    Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

  19. The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

    PubMed

    Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

    2017-06-01

    There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

  20. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  1. Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

    2013-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

  2. The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

    2007-12-01

    The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

  3. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  4. The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

    2017-07-01

    This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ

  5. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  6. Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogan, C. Deha

    2017-01-01

    Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

  7. Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2006-01-01

    Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

  8. Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

    2007-01-01

    Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

  9. Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

    PubMed

    Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

    2011-05-01

    Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

  10. Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

    2010-01-01

    A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

  11. Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

    1993-06-01

    This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

  12. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  13. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  14. The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

    2014-05-01

    The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

  15. Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

    1992-01-01

    Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

  16. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    PubMed

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  17. A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

    2012-01-01

    Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

  18. Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

    PubMed

    Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

    2017-04-01

    Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

  19. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  20. Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

    PubMed

    Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in

  1. Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

    PubMed Central

    Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

    2010-01-01

    Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the

  2. Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

    PubMed

    Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

    2012-08-01

    Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

  3. Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oranje, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

  4. Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

  5. Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2018-01-01

    Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

  6. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2017-03-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  7. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  8. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

    2010-01-01

    This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

  9. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  10. ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnette, J. Jackson

    2005-01-01

    An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

  11. Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

    Treesearch

    Donald B.K. English

    2000-01-01

    In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

  12. Asymptotic confidence intervals for the Pearson correlation via skewness and kurtosis.

    PubMed

    Bishara, Anthony J; Li, Jiexiang; Nash, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    When bivariate normality is violated, the default confidence interval of the Pearson correlation can be inaccurate. Two new methods were developed based on the asymptotic sampling distribution of Fisher's z' under the general case where bivariate normality need not be assumed. In Monte Carlo simulations, the most successful of these methods relied on the (Vale & Maurelli, 1983, Psychometrika, 48, 465) family to approximate a distribution via the marginal skewness and kurtosis of the sample data. In Simulation 1, this method provided more accurate confidence intervals of the correlation in non-normal data, at least as compared to no adjustment of the Fisher z' interval, or to adjustment via the sample joint moments. In Simulation 2, this approximate distribution method performed favourably relative to common non-parametric bootstrap methods, but its performance was mixed relative to an observed imposed bootstrap and two other robust methods (PM1 and HC4). No method was completely satisfactory. An advantage of the approximate distribution method, though, is that it can be implemented even without access to raw data if sample skewness and kurtosis are reported, making the method particularly useful for meta-analysis. Supporting information includes R code. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

    PubMed

    Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

    2017-12-01

    Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

  14. Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.

    1993-01-01

    A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

  15. Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howington, Eric B.

    2017-01-01

    Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

  16. Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

    Treesearch

    H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

    2000-01-01

    In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

  17. Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.

    1993-01-01

    Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

  18. Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

    PubMed

    Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

    2016-09-07

    Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

  19. On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rutledge, Charles K.

    1988-01-01

    The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

  20. Procedures for estimating confidence intervals for selected method performance parameters.

    PubMed

    McClure, F D; Lee, J K

    2001-01-01

    Procedures for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for the repeatability variance (sigmar2), reproducibility variance (sigmaR2 = sigmaL2 + sigmar2), laboratory component (sigmaL2), and their corresponding standard deviations sigmar, sigmaR, and sigmaL, respectively, are presented. In addition, CIs for the ratio of the repeatability component to the reproducibility variance (sigmar2/sigmaR2) and the ratio of the laboratory component to the reproducibility variance (sigmaL2/sigmaR2) are also presented.

  1. Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

    PubMed

    Shieh, G

    2013-12-01

    The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

  2. Using Confidence Intervals and Recurrence Intervals to Determine Precipitation Delivery Mechanisms Responsible for Mass Wasting Events.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulizio, T. P.; Bilbrey, C.; Stoyanoff, N.; Dixon, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Mass wasting events are geologic hazards that impact human life and property across a variety of landscapes. These movements can be triggered by tectonic activity, anomalous precipitation events, or both; acting to decrease the factor of safety ratio on a hillslope to the point of failure. There exists an active hazard landscape in the West Boulder River drainage of Park Co., MT in which the mechanisms of slope failure are unknown. It is known that region has not seen significant tectonic activity within the last decade, leaving anomalous precipitation events as the likely trigger for slope failures in the landscape. Precipitation can be delivered to a landscape via rainfall or snow; it was the aim of this study to determine the precipitation delivery mechanism most likely responsible for movements in the West Boulder drainage following the Jungle Wildfire of 2006. Data was compiled from four SNOTEL sites in the surrounding area, spanning 33 years, focusing on, but not limited to; maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) values in a water year, median SWE values on the date which maximum SWE was recorded in a water year, the total precipitation accumulated in a water year, etc. Means were computed and 99% confidence intervals were constructed around these means. Recurrence intervals and exceedance probabilities were computed for maximum SWE values and total precipitation accumulated in a water year to determine water years with anomalous precipitation. It was determined that the water year 2010-2011 received an anomalously high amount of SWE, and snow melt in the spring of this water year likely triggered recent mass waste movements. This data is further supported by Google Earth imagery, showing movements between 2009 and 2011. Return intervals for the maximum SWE value in 2010-11 for the Placer Basin SNOTEL site was 34 years, while return intervals for the Box Canyon and Monument Peak SNOTEL sites were 17.5 and 17 years respectively. Max SWE values lie outside the

  3. WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

    PubMed

    Grech, Victor

    2018-03-01

    The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Another look at confidence intervals: Proposal for a more relevant and transparent approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biller, Steven D.; Oser, Scott M.

    2015-02-01

    The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low event numbers where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviors and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on model parameter values and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that better addresses these issues.

  5. Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, R. E.

    1980-01-01

    The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

  6. Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

  7. Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

    2017-01-01

    Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

  8. SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yurdugul, Halil

    2009-01-01

    This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

  9. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

    PubMed

    Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

  10. Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

    2009-12-01

    The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

  11. How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

    2016-12-01

    Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

  12. Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher

    Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics ofmore » various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization

  13. Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

    2013-01-01

    The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

  14. Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

    PubMed

    Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

    2017-10-01

    The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

  15. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  16. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    PubMed

    Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

  17. Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

    2016-09-20

    Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire

  18. Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

    2012-08-01

    This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2015-01-01

    Cronbach’s coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald’s omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega. PMID:29795870

  20. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  1. Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

  2. A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

    PubMed

    Oono, Ryoko

    2017-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

  3. Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

    PubMed Central

    Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

    2016-01-01

    Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

  4. Evaluating the utility of hexapod species for calculating a confidence interval about a succession based postmortem interval estimate.

    PubMed

    Perez, Anne E; Haskell, Neal H; Wells, Jeffrey D

    2014-08-01

    Carrion insect succession patterns have long been used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) during a death investigation. However, no published carrion succession study included sufficient replication to calculate a confidence interval about a PMI estimate based on occurrence data. We exposed 53 pig carcasses (16±2.5 kg), near the likely minimum needed for such statistical analysis, at a site in north-central Indiana, USA, over three consecutive summer seasons. Insects and Collembola were sampled daily from each carcass for a total of 14 days, by this time each was skeletonized. The criteria for judging a life stage of a given species to be potentially useful for succession-based PMI estimation were (1) nonreoccurrence (observed during a single period of presence on a corpse), and (2) found in a sufficiently large proportion of carcasses to support a PMI confidence interval. For this data set that proportion threshold is 45/53. Of the 266 species collected and identified, none was nonreoccuring in that each showed at least a gap of one day on a single carcass. If the definition of nonreoccurrence is relaxed to include such a single one-day gap the larval forms of Necrophilaamericana, Fanniascalaris, Cochliomyia macellaria, Phormiaregina, and Luciliaillustris satisfied these two criteria. Adults of Creophilus maxillosus, Necrobiaruficollis, and Necrodessurinamensis were common and showed only a few, single-day gaps in occurrence. C.maxillosus, P.regina, and L.illustris displayed exceptional forensic utility in that they were observed on every carcass. Although these observations were made at a single site during one season of the year, the species we found to be useful have large geographic ranges. We suggest that future carrion insect succession research focus only on a limited set of species with high potential forensic utility so as to reduce sample effort per carcass and thereby enable increased experimental replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland

  5. The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

    2013-03-01

    Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

  6. A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

  7. Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

    PubMed

    Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

    2016-11-01

    The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

  8. Confidence interval or p-value?: part 4 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

    PubMed

    du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Hommel, Gerhard; Röhrig, Bernd; Blettner, Maria

    2009-05-01

    An understanding of p-values and confidence intervals is necessary for the evaluation of scientific articles. This article will inform the reader of the meaning and interpretation of these two statistical concepts. The uses of these two statistical concepts and the differences between them are discussed on the basis of a selective literature search concerning the methods employed in scientific articles. P-values in scientific studies are used to determine whether a null hypothesis formulated before the performance of the study is to be accepted or rejected. In exploratory studies, p-values enable the recognition of any statistically noteworthy findings. Confidence intervals provide information about a range in which the true value lies with a certain degree of probability, as well as about the direction and strength of the demonstrated effect. This enables conclusions to be drawn about the statistical plausibility and clinical relevance of the study findings. It is often useful for both statistical measures to be reported in scientific articles, because they provide complementary types of information.

  9. Association of narrow angles with anterior chamber area and volume measured with anterior-segment optical coherence tomography.

    PubMed

    Wu, Ren-Yi; Nongpiur, Monisha E; He, Ming-Guang; Sakata, Lisandro M; Friedman, David S; Chan, Yiong-Huak; Lavanya, Raghavan; Wong, Tien-Yin; Aung, Tin

    2011-05-01

    To describe the measurement of anterior chamber area and anterior chamber volume by anterior-segment optical coherence tomography and to investigate the association of these parameters with the presence of narrow angles. This was a cross-sectional study of subjects aged at least 50 years without ophthalmic symptoms recruited from a community clinic. All participants underwent standardized ocular examination and anterior-segment optical coherence tomography. Customized software was used to measure anterior chamber area (cross-sectional area bounded by the corneal endothelium, anterior surface of iris, and lens within the pupil) and anterior chamber volume (calculated by rotating the anterior chamber area 360° around a vertical axis through the midpoint of the anterior chamber area). An eye was considered to have narrow angles if the posterior pigmented trabecular meshwork was not visible for at least 180° on gonioscopy with the eye in the primary position. A total of 1922 subjects were included in the final analyses, 317 (16.5%) of whom had narrow angles. Mean anterior chamber area (15.6 vs 21.1 mm(2); P < .001) and anterior chamber volume (97.6 vs 142.1 mm(3); P < .001) were smaller in eyes with narrow angles compared with those in eyes without narrow angles. After adjusting for age, sex, anterior chamber depth, axial length, and pupil size, smaller anterior chamber area (odds ratio, 53.2; 95% confidence interval, 27.1-104.5) and anterior chamber volume (odds ratio, 40.2; 95% confidence interval, 21.5-75.2) were significantly associated with the presence of narrow angles. Smaller anterior chamber area and anterior chamber volume were independently associated with narrow angles in Singaporeans, even after controlling for other known ocular risk factors.

  10. ’Exact’ Two-Sided Confidence Intervals on Nonnegative Linear Combinations of Variances.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-07-01

    Colorado State University ( 042_402) II. CONTrOLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS It. REPORT OAT Office of Naval Rsearch -// 1 Jul MjW80 Statistics and...MONNEGATIVE LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF VARIANCES by Franklin A. Graybill Colorado State University and Chih-Ming Wang SPSS Inc. 1. Introduction In a paper to soon...1 + a2’ called the Nodf Led Lace Sample (HLS) confidence interval, is in 2. Aoce-3Ion For DDC TAO u*.- *- -. n c edI Ju.-’I if iction_, i !~BV . . I

  11. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

  12. Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2016-06-01

    Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega.

  13. Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

    PubMed

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

    2011-04-15

    The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

  14. Self-confidence and affect responses to short-term sprint interval training.

    PubMed

    Selmi, Walid; Rebai, Haithem; Chtara, Mokhtar; Naceur, Abdelmajid; Sahli, Sonia

    2018-05-01

    The study aimed to investigate the effects of repeated sprint (RS) training on somatic anxiety (SA), cognitive anxiety (CA), self-confidence (SC), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and repeated sprint ability (RSA) indicators in elite young soccer players. Thirty elite soccer players in the first football league (age: 17.8±0.9years) volunteered to participate in this study. They were randomly assigned to one of two groups: a repeated sprint training group (RST-G; n=15) and a control group (CON-G; n=15). RST-G participated in 6weeks of intensive training based on RS (6×(20+20m) runs, with 20s passive recovery interval between sprints, 3 times/week). Before and after the 6-week intervention, all participants performed a RSA test and completed a Competitive Scale Anxiety Inventory (CSAI-2) and the RPE. After training RST-G showed a very significant (p<0.000) increase in RSA total time performance relative to controls. Despite the faster sprint pace, the RPE also decreased significantly (p<0.005) in RST-G, and their self confidence was significantly greater (p<0.01), while the cognitive (p<0.01) and somatic (p<0.000) components of their anxiety state decreased. When practiced regularly, short bouts of sprint exercises improve anaerobic performance associated with a reduction in anxiety state and an increase in SC which may probably boost competitive performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Experimental optimization of the number of blocks by means of algorithms parameterized by confidence interval in popcorn breeding.

    PubMed

    Paula, T O M; Marinho, C D; Amaral Júnior, A T; Peternelli, L A; Gonçalves, L S A

    2013-06-27

    The objective of this study was to determine the optimal number of repetitions to be used in competition trials of popcorn traits related to production and quality, including grain yield and expansion capacity. The experiments were conducted in 3 environments representative of the north and northwest regions of the State of Rio de Janeiro with 10 Brazilian genotypes of popcorn, consisting by 4 commercial hybrids (IAC 112, IAC 125, Zélia, and Jade), 4 improved varieties (BRS Ângela, UFVM-2 Barão de Viçosa, Beija-flor, and Viçosa) and 2 experimental populations (UNB2U-C3 and UNB2U-C4). The experimental design utilized was a randomized complete block design with 7 repetitions. The Bootstrap method was employed to obtain samples of all of the possible combinations within the 7 blocks. Subsequently, the confidence intervals of the parameters of interest were calculated for all simulated data sets. The optimal number of repetition for all of the traits was considered when all of the estimates of the parameters in question were encountered within the confidence interval. The estimates of the number of repetitions varied according to the parameter estimated, variable evaluated, and environment cultivated, ranging from 2 to 7. It is believed that only the expansion capacity traits in the Colégio Agrícola environment (for residual variance and coefficient of variation), and number of ears per plot, in the Itaocara environment (for coefficient of variation) needed 7 repetitions to fall within the confidence interval. Thus, for the 3 studies conducted, we can conclude that 6 repetitions are optimal for obtaining high experimental precision.

  16. UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

  17. Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

    2009-06-01

    When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

  18. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the concordance correlation coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient with small number of raters.

    PubMed

    Feng, Dai; Svetnik, Vladimir; Coimbra, Alexandre; Baumgartner, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with fixed raters or, equivalently, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous outcomes is a widely accepted aggregate index of agreement in settings with small number of raters. Quantifying the precision of the CCC by constructing its confidence interval (CI) is important in early drug development applications, in particular in qualification of biomarker platforms. In recent years, there have been several new methods proposed for construction of CIs for the CCC, but their comprehensive comparison has not been attempted. The methods consisted of the delta method and jackknifing with and without Fisher's Z-transformation, respectively, and Bayesian methods with vague priors. In this study, we carried out a simulation study, with data simulated from multivariate normal as well as heavier tailed distribution (t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom), to compare the state-of-the-art methods for assigning CI to the CCC. When the data are normally distributed, the jackknifing with Fisher's Z-transformation (JZ) tended to provide superior coverage and the difference between it and the closest competitor, the Bayesian method with the Jeffreys prior was in general minimal. For the nonnormal data, the jackknife methods, especially the JZ method, provided the coverage probabilities closest to the nominal in contrast to the others which yielded overly liberal coverage. Approaches based upon the delta method and Bayesian method with conjugate prior generally provided slightly narrower intervals and larger lower bounds than others, though this was offset by their poor coverage. Finally, we illustrated the utility of the CIs for the CCC in an example of a wake after sleep onset (WASO) biomarker, which is frequently used in clinical sleep studies of drugs for treatment of insomnia.

  19. Practical Advice on Calculating Confidence Intervals for Radioprotection Effects and Reducing Animal Numbers in Radiation Countermeasure Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Landes, Reid D.; Lensing, Shelly Y.; Kodell, Ralph L.; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The dose of a substance that causes death in P% of a population is called an LDP, where LD stands for lethal dose. In radiation research, a common LDP of interest is the radiation dose that kills 50% of the population by a specified time, i.e., lethal dose 50 or LD50. When comparing LD50 between two populations, relative potency is the parameter of interest. In radiation research, this is commonly known as the dose reduction factor (DRF). Unfortunately, statistical inference on dose reduction factor is seldom reported. We illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals for dose reduction factor, which may then be used for statistical inference. Further, most dose reduction factor experiments use hundreds, rather than tens of animals. Through better dosing strategies and the use of a recently available sample size formula, we also show how animal numbers may be reduced while maintaining high statistical power. The illustrations center on realistic examples comparing LD50 values between a radiation countermeasure group and a radiation-only control. We also provide easy-to-use spreadsheets for sample size calculations and confidence interval calculations, as well as SAS® and R code for the latter. PMID:24164553

  20. Using confidence intervals to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays.

    PubMed

    Sawyer, Travis W; Hawkins, Kyle S; Damento, Michael

    2017-06-20

    High-resolution spectrographs extract detailed spectral information of a sample and are frequently used in astronomy, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. These instruments employ dispersive elements such as prisms and diffraction gratings to spatially separate different wavelengths of light, which are then detected by a charge-coupled device (CCD) or complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) detector array. Precise alignment along the optical axis (focus position) of the detector array is critical to maximize the instrumental resolution; however, traditional approaches of scanning the detector through focus lack a quantitative measure of precision, limiting the repeatability and relying on one's experience. Here we propose a method to evaluate the focus alignment of spectrograph detector arrays by establishing confidence intervals to measure the alignment precision. We show that propagation of uncertainty can be used to estimate the variance in an alignment, thus providing a quantitative and repeatable means to evaluate the precision and confidence of an alignment. We test the approach by aligning the detector array of a prototype miniature echelle spectrograph. The results indicate that the procedure effectively quantifies alignment precision, enabling one to objectively determine when an alignment has reached an acceptable level. This quantitative approach also provides a foundation for further optimization, including automated alignment. Furthermore, the procedure introduced here can be extended to other alignment techniques that rely on numerically fitting data to a model, providing a general framework for evaluating the precision of alignment methods.

  1. Extended Endoscopic Endonasal Resection of a Suprasellar and Third Ventricular Retrochiasmatic Craniopharyngioma with a Narrow Pituitary Gland-Optic Chiasm Interval: Techniques to Optimize Resection.

    PubMed

    Kenning, Tyler J; Pinheiro-Neto, Carlos D

    2018-04-01

    The extended endoscopic endonasal approach can be utilized to surgically treat pathology within the suprasellar space. This relies on a sufficient corridor and interval between the superior aspect of the pituitary gland and the optic chiasm. Tumors located in the retrochiasmatic space and within the third ventricle, however, may not have a widened interval through which to work. With mass effect on the superior and posterior aspect of the optic chiasm, the corridor between the chiasm and the pituitary gland might even be further narrowed. This may negate the possibility of utilizing the endoscopic endonasal approach for the management of pathology in this location. We present a case of a retrochiasmatic craniopharyngioma with a narrow resection corridor that was treated with the extended endoscopic approach and we review techniques to potentially overcome this limitation. The link to the video can be found at: https://youtu.be/ogRZj-aBqeQ .

  2. Broad- versus Narrow-Spectrum Oral Antibiotic Transition and Outcomes in Health Care-associated Pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Buckel, Whitney R; Stenehjem, Edward; Sorensen, Jeff; Dean, Nathan; Webb, Brandon

    2017-02-01

    Guidelines recommend a switch from intravenous to oral antibiotics once patients who are hospitalized with pneumonia achieve clinical stability. However, little evidence guides the selection of an oral antibiotic for patients with health care-associated pneumonia, especially where no microbiological diagnosis is made. To compare outcomes between patients who were transitioned to broad- versus narrow-spectrum oral antibiotics after initially receiving broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotic coverage. We performed a secondary analysis of an existing database of adults with community-onset pneumonia admitted to seven Utah hospitals. We identified 220 inpatients with microbiology-negative health care-associated pneumonia from 2010 to 2012. After excluding inpatient deaths and treatment failures, 173 patients remained in which broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotics were transitioned to an oral regimen. We classified oral regimens as broad-spectrum (fluoroquinolone) versus narrow-spectrum (usually a β-lactam). We compared demographic and clinical characteristics between groups. Using a multivariable regression model, we adjusted outcomes by severity (electronically calculated CURB-65), comorbidity (Charlson Index), time to clinical stability, and length of intravenous therapy. Age, severity, comorbidity, length of intravenous therapy, and clinical response were similar between the two groups. Observed 30-day readmission (11.9 vs. 21.4%; P = 0.26) and 30-day all-cause mortality (2.3 vs. 5.3%; P = 0.68) were also similar between the narrow and broad oral antibiotic groups. In multivariable analysis, we found no statistically significant differences for adjusted odds of 30-day readmission (adjusted odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-5.2; P = 0.61) or 30-day all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-1.6; P = 0.26) between narrow and broad oral antibiotic groups. On the basis of analysis of a limited number of patients

  3. An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick Charles

    1985-01-01

    An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

  4. CI2 for creating and comparing confidence-intervals for time-series bivariate plots.

    PubMed

    Mullineaux, David R

    2017-02-01

    Currently no method exists for calculating and comparing the confidence-intervals (CI) for the time-series of a bivariate plot. The study's aim was to develop 'CI2' as a method to calculate the CI on time-series bivariate plots, and to identify if the CI between two bivariate time-series overlap. The test data were the knee and ankle angles from 10 healthy participants running on a motorised standard-treadmill and non-motorised curved-treadmill. For a recommended 10+ trials, CI2 involved calculating 95% confidence-ellipses at each time-point, then taking as the CI the points on the ellipses that were perpendicular to the direction vector between the means of two adjacent time-points. Consecutive pairs of CI created convex quadrilaterals, and any overlap of these quadrilaterals at the same time or ±1 frame as a time-lag calculated using cross-correlations, indicated where the two time-series differed. CI2 showed no group differences between left and right legs on both treadmills, but the same legs between treadmills for all participants showed differences of less knee extension on the curved-treadmill before heel-strike. To improve and standardise the use of CI2 it is recommended to remove outlier time-series, use 95% confidence-ellipses, and scale the ellipse by the fixed Chi-square value as opposed to the sample-size dependent F-value. For practical use, and to aid in standardisation or future development of CI2, Matlab code is provided. CI2 provides an effective method to quantify the CI of bivariate plots, and to explore the differences in CI between two bivariate time-series. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Proportion of general factor variance in a hierarchical multiple-component measuring instrument: a note on a confidence interval estimation procedure.

    PubMed

    Raykov, Tenko; Zinbarg, Richard E

    2011-05-01

    A confidence interval construction procedure for the proportion of explained variance by a hierarchical, general factor in a multi-component measuring instrument is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates for the proportion of total scale score variance that is accounted for by the general factor, which could be viewed as common to all components. The approach may also be used for testing composite (one-tailed) or simple hypotheses about this proportion, and is illustrated with a pair of examples. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  6. Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

    2012-01-01

    It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

  7. The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

    PubMed

    Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

    2016-02-01

    Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

  8. Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

    PubMed

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2008-07-01

    Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

  9. Prediction of the distillation temperatures of crude oils using ¹H NMR and support vector regression with estimated confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

    2015-09-01

    This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Reliability and failure modes of narrow implant systems.

    PubMed

    Hirata, Ronaldo; Bonfante, Estevam A; Anchieta, Rodolfo B; Machado, Lucas S; Freitas, Gileade; Fardin, Vinicius P; Tovar, Nick; Coelho, Paulo G

    2016-09-01

    Narrow implants are indicated in areas of limited bone width or when grafting is nonviable. However, the reduction of implant diameter may compromise their performance. This study evaluated the reliability of several narrow implant systems under fatigue, after restored with single-unit crowns. Narrow implant systems were divided (n = 18 each), as follows: Astra (ASC); BioHorizons (BSC); Straumann Roxolid (SNC), Intra-Lock (IMC), and Intra-Lock one-piece abutment (ILO). Maxillary central incisor crowns were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Use level probability Weibull curves and reliability for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 130- and 180-N loads (90 % two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Scanning electron microscopy was used for fractography. Reliability for 100,000 cycles at 130 N was ∼99 % in group ASC, ∼99 % in BSC, ∼96 % in SNC, ∼99 % in IMC, and ∼100 % in ILO. At 180 N, reliability of ∼34 % resulted for the ASC group, ∼91 % for BSC, ∼53 % for SNC, ∼70 % for IMC, and ∼99 % for ILO. Abutment screw fracture was the main failure mode for all groups. Reliability was not different between systems for 100,000 cycles at the 130-N load. A significant decrease was observed at the 180-N load for ASC, SNC, and IMC, whereas it was maintained for BSC and ILO. The investigated narrow implants presented mechanical performance under fatigue that suggests their safe use as single crowns in the anterior region.

  11. Linkage Disequilibrium Mapping in Domestic Dog Breeds Narrows the Progressive Rod-Cone Degeneration (prcd) Interval and Identifies Ancestral Disease Transmitting Chromosome

    PubMed Central

    Goldstein, Orly; Zangerl, Barbara; Pearce-Kelling, Sue; Sidjanin, Duska J.; Kijas, James W.; Felix, Jeanette; Acland, Gregory M; Aguirre, Gustavo D.

    2014-01-01

    Canine progressive rod-cone degeneration (prcd) is a retinal disease previously mapped to a broad, gene-rich centromeric region of canine chromosome 9. As allelic disorders are present in multiple breeds, we used linkage disequilibrium (LD) to narrow the ∼6.4 Mb interval candidate region. Multiple dog breeds, each representing genetically isolated populations, were typed for SNPs and other polymorphisms identified from BACs. The candidate region was initially localized to a 1.5 Mb zero recombination interval between growth factor receptor-bound protein 2 (GRB2) and SEC14-like 1 (SEC14L). A fine-scale haplotype of the region was developed which reduced the LD interval to 106 Kb, and identified a conserved haplotype of 98 polymorphisms present in all prcd-affected chromosomes from 14 different dog breeds. The findings strongly suggest that a common ancestor transmitted the prcd disease allele to many of the modern dog breeds, and demonstrate the power of LD approach in the canine model. PMID:16859891

  12. Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

    2015-01-01

    The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

  13. Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals of Norm Statistics for Educational and Psychological Tests.

    PubMed

    Oosterhuis, Hannah E M; van der Ark, L Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

    2016-11-14

    Norm statistics allow for the interpretation of scores on psychological and educational tests, by relating the test score of an individual test taker to the test scores of individuals belonging to the same gender, age, or education groups, et cetera. Given the uncertainty due to sampling error, one would expect researchers to report standard errors for norm statistics. In practice, standard errors are seldom reported; they are either unavailable or derived under strong distributional assumptions that may not be realistic for test scores. We derived standard errors for four norm statistics (standard deviation, percentile ranks, stanine boundaries and Z-scores) under the mild assumption that the test scores are multinomially distributed. A simulation study showed that the standard errors were unbiased and that corresponding Wald-based confidence intervals had good coverage. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for applying the standard errors in practical test use in education and psychology. The procedure is provided via the R function check.norms, which is available in the mokken package.

  14. Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2008-01-01

    an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

  15. Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

    PubMed

    Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

    2011-06-01

    For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

  16. Tablet potency of Tianeptine in coated tablets by near infrared spectroscopy: model optimisation, calibration transfer and confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel

    2011-02-20

    A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. [Confidence interval or p-value--similarities and differences between two important methods of statistical inference of quantitative studies].

    PubMed

    Harari, Gil

    2014-01-01

    Statistic significance, also known as p-value, and CI (Confidence Interval) are common statistics measures and are essential for the statistical analysis of studies in medicine and life sciences. These measures provide complementary information about the statistical probability and conclusions regarding the clinical significance of study findings. This article is intended to describe the methodologies, compare between the methods, assert their suitability for the different needs of study results analysis and to explain situations in which each method should be used.

  18. A mathematical framework to quantify the masking effect associated with the confidence intervals of measures of disproportionality

    PubMed Central

    Maignen, François; Hauben, Manfred; Dogné, Jean-Michel

    2017-01-01

    Background: The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of measures of disproportionality (Lower95CI) is widely used in signal detection. Masking is a statistical issue by which true signals of disproportionate reporting are hidden by the presence of other medicines. The primary objective of our study is to develop and validate a mathematical framework for assessing the masking effect of Lower95CI. Methods: We have developed our new algorithm based on the masking ratio (MR) developed for the measures of disproportionality. A MR for the Lower95CI (MRCI) is proposed. A simulation study to validate this algorithm was also conducted. Results: We have established the existence of a very close mathematical relation between MR and MRCI. For a given drug–event pair, the same product will be responsible for the highest masking effect with the measure of disproportionality and its Lower95CI. The extent of masking is likely to be very similar across the two methods. An important proportion of identical drug–event associations affected by the presence of an important masking effect is revealed by the unmasking exercise, whether the proportional reporting ratio (PRR) or its confidence interval are used. Conclusion: The detection of the masking effect of Lower95CI can be automated. The real benefits of this unmasking in terms of new true-positive signals (rate of true-positive/false-positive) or time gained by the revealing of signals using this method have not been fully assessed. These benefits should be demonstrated in the context of prospective studies. PMID:28845231

  19. [Bioequivalence and generics of index drugs with narrow therapeutic margins].

    PubMed

    Le Corre, Pascal

    2010-02-01

    The market share of generic drugs in France is quite low compared to that in other European countries. Because the scientific aspects of bioequivalence that govern the use of generics are sometimes described ambiguously in the literature, they are not always perceived clearly by health professionals. This lack of clarity may be an obstacle to their use. Two drugs are considered bioequivalent if the upper and lower limits of the 90% confidence interval (90% CI) of the generic-to-brand ratio for the area under the curve (AUC) and for the maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) are included in the [-20%, +25%] interval. This interval applies to the 90% CI of the ratios of the AUC (or Cmax) and not directly to the ratio of their values. Hence, it is wrong to consider that there is a -20% to + 25% variation in the AUC (and thus in the bioavailability) between a generic and a brand-name drug. This mistake can sometimes be seen in the medical literature, however, with incorrect extrapolations. The bioequivalence is defined for a generic in relation to a brand-name drug. Consequently, two different generics of the same proprietary drug do not automatically meet the criteria for bioequivalence. Their interchangeability can present problems, especially for drugs with a narrow therapeutic index, that is, those that have a<2-fold difference between the minimum toxic concentration and minimum effective concentration in blood. More restrictive criteria have been proposed for narrow therapeutic index drugs, but there is currently no international consensus on the subject. Determining individual bioequivalence would require modified study protocols to guaranty the interchangeability of the brand-name and generic drugs so that a patient taking one formulation could change to another that would provide the same efficacy and safety. Some antiepileptic drugs have biopharmaceutical and pharmacokinetic properties inducing high levels of intraindividual variability, which can cause problems

  20. Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

    2009-02-01

    Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

  1. Uncertainty in Population Growth Rates: Determining Confidence Intervals from Point Estimates of Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Devenish Nelson, Eleanor S.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Richards, Shane A.; Stephens, Philip A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. Conclusions/Significance Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. PMID:21049049

  2. Applications of asymptotic confidence intervals with continuity corrections for asymmetric comparisons in noninferiority trials.

    PubMed

    Soulakova, Julia N; Bright, Brianna C

    2013-01-01

    A large-sample problem of illustrating noninferiority of an experimental treatment over a referent treatment for binary outcomes is considered. The methods of illustrating noninferiority involve constructing the lower two-sided confidence bound for the difference between binomial proportions corresponding to the experimental and referent treatments and comparing it with the negative value of the noninferiority margin. The three considered methods, Anbar, Falk-Koch, and Reduced Falk-Koch, handle the comparison in an asymmetric way, that is, only the referent proportion out of the two, experimental and referent, is directly involved in the expression for the variance of the difference between two sample proportions. Five continuity corrections (including zero) are considered with respect to each approach. The key properties of the corresponding methods are evaluated via simulations. First, the uncorrected two-sided confidence intervals can, potentially, have smaller coverage probability than the nominal level even for moderately large sample sizes, for example, 150 per group. Next, the 15 testing methods are discussed in terms of their Type I error rate and power. In the settings with a relatively small referent proportion (about 0.4 or smaller), the Anbar approach with Yates' continuity correction is recommended for balanced designs and the Falk-Koch method with Yates' correction is recommended for unbalanced designs. For relatively moderate (about 0.6) and large (about 0.8 or greater) referent proportion, the uncorrected Reduced Falk-Koch method is recommended, although in this case, all methods tend to be over-conservative. These results are expected to be used in the design stage of a noninferiority study when asymmetric comparisons are envisioned. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions With Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

    PubMed Central

    Paek, Insu

    2015-01-01

    The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on four confidence interval (CI) procedures for coefficient alpha in terms of coverage rate (CR), length, and the degree of asymmetry of CI estimates. In addition, interval estimates of coefficient alpha when data follow the essentially tau-equivalent condition were investigated as a supplement to the case of dichotomous data with examinee guessing. For dichotomous data with guessing, the results did not reveal salient negative effects of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics (sample size, test length, coefficient alpha levels) on CR and the degree of asymmetry, but the effect of guessing was salient as a main effect and an interaction effect with sample size on the length of the CI estimates, making longer CI estimates as guessing increases, especially when combined with a small sample size. Other important effects (e.g., CI procedures on CR) are also discussed. PMID:29795863

  4. Confidence interval estimation of the difference between two sensitivities to the early disease stage.

    PubMed

    Dong, Tuochuan; Kang, Le; Hutson, Alan; Xiong, Chengjie; Tian, Lili

    2014-03-01

    Although most of the statistical methods for diagnostic studies focus on disease processes with binary disease status, many diseases can be naturally classified into three ordinal diagnostic categories, that is normal, early stage, and fully diseased. For such diseases, the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is the most commonly used index of diagnostic accuracy. Because the early disease stage is most likely the optimal time window for therapeutic intervention, the sensitivity to the early diseased stage has been suggested as another diagnostic measure. For the purpose of comparing the diagnostic abilities on early disease detection between two markers, it is of interest to estimate the confidence interval of the difference between sensitivities to the early diseased stage. In this paper, we present both parametric and non-parametric methods for this purpose. An extensive simulation study is carried out for a variety of settings for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods. A real example of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is analyzed using the proposed approaches. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

    PubMed

    Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

    2017-02-01

    In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

  6. Confidence intervals for differences between volumes under receiver operating characteristic surfaces (VUS) and generalized Youden indices (GYIs).

    PubMed

    Yin, Jingjing; Nakas, Christos T; Tian, Lili; Reiser, Benjamin

    2018-03-01

    This article explores both existing and new methods for the construction of confidence intervals for differences of indices of diagnostic accuracy of competing pairs of biomarkers in three-class classification problems and fills the methodological gaps for both parametric and non-parametric approaches in the receiver operating characteristic surface framework. The most widely used such indices are the volume under the receiver operating characteristic surface and the generalized Youden index. We describe implementation of all methods and offer insight regarding the appropriateness of their use through a large simulation study with different distributional and sample size scenarios. Methods are illustrated using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study, where assessment of cognitive function naturally results in a three-class classification setting.

  7. Conventional and Ambulatory Blood Pressure as Predictors of Retinal Arteriolar Narrowing

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Fang-Fei; Zhang, Zhen-Yu; Thijs, Lutgarde; Yang, Wen-Yi; Jacobs, Lotte; Cauwenberghs, Nicholas; Gu, Yu-Mei; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Allegaert, Karel; Verhamme, Peter; Li, Yan; Struijker-Boudier, Harry A.J.

    2016-01-01

    At variance with the long established paradigm that retinal arteriolar narrowing trails hypertension, several longitudinal studies, all based on conventional blood pressure (CBP) measurement, proposed that retinal arteriolar narrowing indicates heightened microvascular resistance and precedes hypertension. In 783 randomly recruited Flemish (mean age, 38.2 years; 51.3% women), we investigated to what extent CBP and daytime (10 am to 8 pm) ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) measured at baseline (1989–2008) predicted the central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) in retinal photographs obtained at follow-up (2008–2015). Systolic/diastolic hypertension thresholds were 140/90 mm Hg for CBP and 135/85 mm Hg for ABP. In multivariable-adjusted models including both baseline CBP and ABP, CRAE after 10.3 years (median) of follow-up was unrelated to CBP (P≥0.14), whereas ABP predicted CRAE narrowing (P≤0.011). Per 1-SD increment in systolic/diastolic blood pressure, the association sizes were −0.95 µm (95% confidence interval, −2.20 to 0.30)/−0.75 µm (−1.93 to 0.42) for CBP and −1.76 µm (−2.95 to −0.58)/−1.48 µm (−2.61 to −0.34) for ABP. Patients with ambulatory hypertension at baseline (17.0%) had smaller CRAE (146.5 versus 152.6 µm; P<0.001) at follow-up. CRAE was not different (P≥0.31) between true normotension (normal CBP and ABP; prevalence, 77.6%) and white-coat hypertension (elevated CBP and normal ABP, 5.4%) and between masked hypertension (normal CBP and elevated ABP, 10.2%) and hypertension (elevated CBP and ABP, 6.8%). In conclusion, the paradigm that retinal arteriolar narrowing precedes hypertension can be explained by the limitations of CBP measurement, including nonidentification of masked and white-coat hypertension. PMID:27324224

  8. Conventional and Ambulatory Blood Pressure as Predictors of Retinal Arteriolar Narrowing.

    PubMed

    Wei, Fang-Fei; Zhang, Zhen-Yu; Thijs, Lutgarde; Yang, Wen-Yi; Jacobs, Lotte; Cauwenberghs, Nicholas; Gu, Yu-Mei; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Allegaert, Karel; Verhamme, Peter; Li, Yan; Struijker-Boudier, Harry A J; Staessen, Jan A

    2016-08-01

    At variance with the long established paradigm that retinal arteriolar narrowing trails hypertension, several longitudinal studies, all based on conventional blood pressure (CBP) measurement, proposed that retinal arteriolar narrowing indicates heightened microvascular resistance and precedes hypertension. In 783 randomly recruited Flemish (mean age, 38.2 years; 51.3% women), we investigated to what extent CBP and daytime (10 am to 8 pm) ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) measured at baseline (1989-2008) predicted the central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) in retinal photographs obtained at follow-up (2008-2015). Systolic/diastolic hypertension thresholds were 140/90 mm Hg for CBP and 135/85 mm Hg for ABP. In multivariable-adjusted models including both baseline CBP and ABP, CRAE after 10.3 years (median) of follow-up was unrelated to CBP (P≥0.14), whereas ABP predicted CRAE narrowing (P≤0.011). Per 1-SD increment in systolic/diastolic blood pressure, the association sizes were -0.95 µm (95% confidence interval, -2.20 to 0.30)/-0.75 µm (-1.93 to 0.42) for CBP and -1.76 µm (-2.95 to -0.58)/-1.48 µm (-2.61 to -0.34) for ABP. Patients with ambulatory hypertension at baseline (17.0%) had smaller CRAE (146.5 versus 152.6 µm; P<0.001) at follow-up. CRAE was not different (P≥0.31) between true normotension (normal CBP and ABP; prevalence, 77.6%) and white-coat hypertension (elevated CBP and normal ABP, 5.4%) and between masked hypertension (normal CBP and elevated ABP, 10.2%) and hypertension (elevated CBP and ABP, 6.8%). In conclusion, the paradigm that retinal arteriolar narrowing precedes hypertension can be explained by the limitations of CBP measurement, including nonidentification of masked and white-coat hypertension. © 2016 The Authors.

  9. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGES

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  10. Methods for the accurate estimation of confidence intervals on protein folding ϕ-values

    PubMed Central

    Ruczinski, Ingo; Sosnick, Tobin R.; Plaxco, Kevin W.

    2006-01-01

    ϕ-Values provide an important benchmark for the comparison of experimental protein folding studies to computer simulations and theories of the folding process. Despite the growing importance of ϕ measurements, however, formulas to quantify the precision with which ϕ is measured have seen little significant discussion. Moreover, a commonly employed method for the determination of standard errors on ϕ estimates assumes that estimates of the changes in free energy of the transition and folded states are independent. Here we demonstrate that this assumption is usually incorrect and that this typically leads to the underestimation of ϕ precision. We derive an analytical expression for the precision of ϕ estimates (assuming linear chevron behavior) that explicitly takes this dependence into account. We also describe an alternative method that implicitly corrects for the effect. By simulating experimental chevron data, we show that both methods accurately estimate ϕ confidence intervals. We also explore the effects of the commonly employed techniques of calculating ϕ from kinetics estimated at non-zero denaturant concentrations and via the assumption of parallel chevron arms. We find that these approaches can produce significantly different estimates for ϕ (again, even for truly linear chevron behavior), indicating that they are not equivalent, interchangeable measures of transition state structure. Lastly, we describe a Web-based implementation of the above algorithms for general use by the protein folding community. PMID:17008714

  11. A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, P. C.

    1986-01-01

    An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

  12. The Narrow-Line Region of Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Ardila, A.; Binette, Luc; Pastoriza, Miriani G.; Donzelli, Carlos J.

    2000-08-01

    This work studies the optical emission-line properties and physical conditions of the narrow-line region (NLR) of seven narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1's) for which high signal-to-noise ratio spectroscopic observations were available. The resolution is 340 km s-1 (at Hα) over the wavelength interval 3700-9500 Å, enabling us to separate the broad and narrow components of the permitted emission lines. Our results show that the flux carried out by the narrow component of Hβ is, on average, 50% of the total line flux. As a result, the [O III] λ5007/Hβ ratio emitted in the NLR varies from 1 to 5, instead of the universally adopted value of 10. This has strong implications for the required spectral energy distribution that ionizes the NLR gas. Photoionization models that consider a NLR composed of a combination of matter-bounded and ionization-bounded clouds are successful at explaining the low [O III] λ5007/Hβ ratio and the weakness of low-ionization lines of NLS1's. Variation of the relative proportion of these two type of clouds nicely reproduces the dispersion of narrow-line ratios found among the NLS1 sample. Assuming similar physical model parameters of both NLS1's and the normal Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548, we show that the observed differences of emission-line ratios between these two groups of galaxies can be explained, to a first approximation, in terms of the shape of the input ionizing continuum. Narrow emission-line ratios of NLS1's are better reproduced by a steep power-law continuum in the EUV-soft X-ray region, with spectral index α~-2. Flatter spectral indices (α~-1.5) match the observed line ratios of NGC 5548 but are unable to provide a good match to the NLS1 ratios. This result is consistent with ROSAT observations of NLS1's, which show that these objects are characterized by steeper power-law indices than those of Seyfert 1 galaxies with strong broad optical lines. Based on observations made at CASLEO. Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito

  13. Estimation and confidence intervals for empirical mixing distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    Questions regarding collections of parameter estimates can frequently be expressed in terms of an empirical mixing distribution (EMD). This report discusses empirical Bayes estimation of an EMD, with emphasis on the construction of interval estimates. Estimation of the EMD is accomplished by substitution of estimates of prior parameters in the posterior mean of the EMD. This procedure is examined in a parametric model (the normal-normal mixture) and in a semi-parametric model. In both cases, the empirical Bayes bootstrap of Laird and Louis (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 739-757) is used to assess the variability of the estimated EMD arising from the estimation of prior parameters. The proposed methods are applied to a meta-analysis of population trend estimates for groups of birds.

  14. Performance analysis of complex repairable industrial systems using PSO and fuzzy confidence interval based methodology.

    PubMed

    Garg, Harish

    2013-03-01

    The main objective of the present paper is to propose a methodology for analyzing the behavior of the complex repairable industrial systems. In real-life situations, it is difficult to find the most optimal design policies for MTBF (mean time between failures), MTTR (mean time to repair) and related costs by utilizing available resources and uncertain data. For this, the availability-cost optimization model has been constructed for determining the optimal design parameters for improving the system design efficiency. The uncertainties in the data related to each component of the system are estimated with the help of fuzzy and statistical methodology in the form of the triangular fuzzy numbers. Using these data, the various reliability parameters, which affects the system performance, are obtained in the form of the fuzzy membership function by the proposed confidence interval based fuzzy Lambda-Tau (CIBFLT) methodology. The computed results by CIBFLT are compared with the existing fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology. Sensitivity analysis on the system MTBF has also been addressed. The methodology has been illustrated through a case study of washing unit, the main part of the paper industry. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Standard errors and confidence intervals for variable importance in random forest regression, classification, and survival.

    PubMed

    Ishwaran, Hemant; Lu, Min

    2018-06-04

    Random forests are a popular nonparametric tree ensemble procedure with broad applications to data analysis. While its widespread popularity stems from its prediction performance, an equally important feature is that it provides a fully nonparametric measure of variable importance (VIMP). A current limitation of VIMP, however, is that no systematic method exists for estimating its variance. As a solution, we propose a subsampling approach that can be used to estimate the variance of VIMP and for constructing confidence intervals. The method is general enough that it can be applied to many useful settings, including regression, classification, and survival problems. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the subsampling estimator and in particular find that the delete-d jackknife variance estimator, a close cousin, is especially effective under low subsampling rates due to its bias correction properties. These 2 estimators are highly competitive when compared with the .164 bootstrap estimator, a modified bootstrap procedure designed to deal with ties in out-of-sample data. Most importantly, subsampling is computationally fast, thus making it especially attractive for big data settings. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  17. Confidence Intervals for Laboratory Sonic Boom Annoyance Tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rathsam, Jonathan; Christian, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Commercial supersonic flight is currently forbidden over land because sonic booms have historically caused unacceptable annoyance levels in overflown communities. NASA is providing data and expertise to noise regulators as they consider relaxing the ban for future quiet supersonic aircraft. One deliverable NASA will provide is a predictive model for indoor annoyance to aid in setting an acceptable quiet sonic boom threshold. A laboratory study was conducted to determine how indoor vibrations caused by sonic booms affect annoyance judgments. The test method required finding the point of subjective equality (PSE) between sonic boom signals that cause vibrations and signals not causing vibrations played at various amplitudes. This presentation focuses on a few statistical techniques for estimating the interval around the PSE. The techniques examined are the Delta Method, Parametric and Nonparametric Bootstrapping, and Bayesian Posterior Estimation.

  18. Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

    Treesearch

    Donald W. Seegrist

    1974-01-01

    A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

  19. Extended Versus Narrow-spectrum Antibiotics in the Management of Uncomplicated Appendicitis in Children: A Propensity-matched Comparative Effectiveness Study.

    PubMed

    Cameron, Danielle B; Melvin, Patrice; Graham, Dionne A; Glass, Charity C; Serres, Stephanie K; Kronman, Matthew P; Saito, Jacqueline M; Rangel, Shawn J

    2018-07-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of extended versus narrow spectrum antibiotics in preventing surgical site infections (SSIs) and hospital revisits in children with uncomplicated appendicitis. There is a paucity of high-quality evidence in the pediatric literature comparing the effectiveness of extended versus narrow-spectrum antibiotics in the prevention of SSIs associated with uncomplicated appendicitis. Clinical data from the ACS NSQIP-Pediatric Appendectomy Pilot Project were merged with antibiotic utilization data from the Pediatric Health Information System database for patients undergoing appendectomy for uncomplicated appendicitis at 17 hospitals from January 1, 2013 to June 30, 2015. Patients who received piperacillin/tazobactam (extended spectrum) were compared with those who received either cefoxitin or ceftriaxone with metronidazole (narrow spectrum) after propensity matching on demographic and severity characteristics. Study outcomes were 30-day SSI and hospital revisit rates. Of the 1389 patients included, 39.1% received piperacillin/tazobactam (range by hospital: 0% to 100%), and the remainder received narrow-spectrum agents. No differences in demographics or severity characteristics were found between groups following matching. In the matched analysis, the rates of SSI were similar between groups [extended spectrum: 2.4% vs narrow spectrum 1.8% (odds ratio, OR: 1.05, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 0.34-3.26)], as was the rate of revisits [extended spectrum: 7.9% vs narrow spectrum 5.1% (OR: 1.46, 95% CI 0.75-2.87)]. Use of extended-spectrum antibiotics was not associated with lower rates of SSI or hospital revisits when compared with narrow-spectrum antibiotics in children with uncomplicated appendicitis. Our results challenge the routine use of extended-spectrum antibiotics observed at many hospitals, particularly given the increasing incidence of antibiotic-resistant organisms.

  20. Reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus.

    PubMed

    Hudson-Lamb, Gavin C; Schoeman, Johan P; Hooijberg, Emma H; Heinrich, Sonja K; Tordiffe, Adrian S W

    2016-02-26

    Published haematologic and serum biochemistry reference intervals are very scarce for captive cheetahs and even more for free-ranging cheetahs. The current study was performed to establish reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs. Baseline serum biochemistry analytes were analysed from 66 healthy Namibian cheetahs. Samples were collected from 30 captive cheetahs at the AfriCat Foundation and 36 free-ranging cheetahs from central Namibia. The effects of captivity-status, age, sex and haemolysis score on the tested serum analytes were investigated. The biochemistry analytes that were measured were sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, urea and creatinine. The 90% confidence interval of the reference limits was obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method. Reference intervals were preferentially determined by the non-parametric method and were as follows: sodium (128 mmol/L - 166 mmol/L), potassium (3.9 mmol/L - 5.2 mmol/L), magnesium (0.8 mmol/L - 1.2 mmol/L), chloride (97 mmol/L - 130 mmol/L), urea (8.2 mmol/L - 25.1 mmol/L) and creatinine (88 µmol/L - 288 µmol/L). Reference intervals from the current study were compared with International Species Information System values for cheetahs and found to be narrower. Moreover, age, sex and haemolysis score had no significant effect on the serum analytes in this study. Separate reference intervals for captive and free-ranging cheetahs were also determined. Captive cheetahs had higher urea values, most likely due to dietary factors. This study is the first to establish reference intervals for serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs according to international guidelines. These results can be used for future health and disease assessments in both captive and free-ranging cheetahs.

  1. The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

    PubMed

    Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

    1998-09-01

    To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

  2. Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

    PubMed

    Mossman, D; Berger, J O

    2001-01-01

    Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

  3. The Logic of Summative Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gugiu, P. Cristian

    2007-01-01

    The constraints of conducting evaluations in real-world settings often necessitate the implementation of less than ideal designs. Unfortunately, the standard method for estimating the precision of a result (i.e., confidence intervals [CI]) cannot be used for evaluative conclusions that are derived from multiple indicators, measures, and data…

  4. Razonamiento de Estudiantes Universitarios sobre Variabilidad e Intervalos de Confianza en un Contexto Inferencial Informal = University Students' Reasoning on Variability and Confidence Intervals in Inferential Informal Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Inzunsa Cazares, Santiago

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

  5. Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

  6. R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar

    2018-03-01

    The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Confidence Intervals for Squared Semipartial Correlation Coefficients: The Effect of Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2010-01-01

    The increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient ([delta]R[superscript 2]) associated with a variable in a regression equation is a commonly used measure of importance in regression analysis. Algina, Keselman, and Penfield found that intervals based on asymptotic principles were typically very inaccurate, even though the sample size…

  8. The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2011-05-01

    The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  9. Annoyance from transportation noise: relationships with exposure metrics DNL and DENL and their confidence intervals.

    PubMed Central

    Miedema, H M; Oudshoorn, C G

    2001-01-01

    We present a model of the distribution of noise annoyance with the mean varying as a function of the noise exposure. Day-night level (DNL) and day-evening-night level (DENL) were used as noise descriptors. Because the entire annoyance distribution has been modeled, any annoyance measure that summarizes this distribution can be calculated from the model. We fitted the model to data from noise annoyance studies for aircraft, road traffic, and railways separately. Polynomial approximations of relationships implied by the model for the combinations of the following exposure and annoyance measures are presented: DNL or DENL, and percentage "highly annoyed" (cutoff at 72 on a scale of 0-100), percentage "annoyed" (cutoff at 50 on a scale of 0-100), or percentage (at least) "a little annoyed" (cutoff at 28 on a scale of 0-100). These approximations are very good, and they are easier to use for practical calculations than the model itself, because the model involves a normal distribution. Our results are based on the same data set that was used earlier to establish relationships between DNL and percentage highly annoyed. In this paper we provide better estimates of the confidence intervals due to the improved model of the relationship between annoyance and noise exposure. Moreover, relationships using descriptors other than DNL and percentage highly annoyed, which are presented here, have not been established earlier on the basis of a large dataset. PMID:11335190

  10. Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon.

    PubMed

    Conny, J M; Norris, G A; Gould, T R

    2009-03-09

    Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (sigma(Char)) and BC (sigma(BC)), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for sigma(BC), which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the sigma(BC) and sigma(Char) surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 degrees C and 850 degrees C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150s. However, a temperature as low as 750 degrees C could not be rejected statistically.

  11. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Treesearch

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  12. Real-Time Optical Biopsy of Colon Polyps With Narrow Band Imaging in Community Practice Does Not Yet Meet Key Thresholds for Clinical Decisions

    PubMed Central

    LADABAUM, URI; FIORITTO, ANN; MITANI, AYA; DESAI, MANISHA; KIM, JANE P.; REX, DOUGLAS K.; IMPERIALE, THOMAS; GUNARATNAM, NARESH

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS Accurate optical analysis of colorectal polyps (optical biopsy) could prevent unnecessary polypectomies or allow a “resect and discard” strategy with surveillance intervals determined based on the results of the optical biopsy; this could be less expensive than histopathologic analysis of polyps. We prospectively evaluated real-time optical biopsy analysis of polyps with narrow band imaging (NBI) by community-based gastroenterologists. METHODS We first analyzed a computerized module to train gastroenterologists (N = 13) in optical biopsy skills using photographs of polyps. Then we evaluated a practice-based learning program for these gastroenterologists (n = 12) that included real-time optical analysis of polyps in vivo, comparison of optical biopsy predictions to histopathologic analysis, and ongoing feedback on performance. RESULTS Twelve of 13 subjects identified adenomas with >90% accuracy at the end of the computer study, and 3 of 12 subjects did so with accuracy ≥90% in the in vivo study. Learning curves showed considerable variation among batches of polyps. For diminutive rectosigmoid polyps assessed with high confidence at the end of the study, adenomas were identified with mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values of 81% (73%–89%), 85% (74%–96%), 78% (66%–92%), and 91% (86%–97%), respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for high confidence as a predictor of accuracy was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3–2.5). The agreement between surveillance recommendations informed by high-confidence NBI analysis of diminutive polyps and results from histopathologic analysis of all polyps was 80% (95% CI, 77%–82%). CONCLUSIONS In an evaluation of real-time optical biopsy analysis of polyps with NBI, only 25% of gastroenterologists assessed polyps with ≥90% accuracy. The negative predictive value for identification of adenomas, but not the surveillance interval agreement, met the American

  13. New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-06-01

    obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

  14. Concept analysis: confidence/self-confidence.

    PubMed

    Perry, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    Confidence and self-confidence are crucial practice elements in nursing education and practice. Nurse educators should have an understanding of the concept of confidence in order to assist in the accomplishment of nursing students and their learning of technical and nontechnical skills. With the aim of facilitating trusted care of patients in the healthcare setting, nursing professionals must exhibit confidence, and, as such, clarification and analysis of its meaning is necessary. The purpose of this analysis is to provide clarity to the meaning of the concept confidence/self-confidence, while gaining a more comprehensive understanding of its attributes, antecedents, and consequences. Walker and Avant's eight-step method of concept analysis was utilized for the framework of the analysis process with model, contrary, borderline, and related cases presented along with attributes, antecedents, consequences, and empirical referents identified. Understanding both the individualized development of confidence among prelicensure nursing students and the role of the nurse educator in the development of confident nursing practice, nurse educators can assist students in the development of confidence and competency. Future research surrounding the nature and development of confidence/self-confidence in the prelicensure nursing student experiencing human patient simulation sessions would assist to help educators further promote the development of confidence. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

    PubMed Central

    Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

  16. Neural activity related to discrimination and vocal production of consonant and dissonant musical intervals.

    PubMed

    González-García, Nadia; González, Martha A; Rendón, Pablo L

    2016-07-15

    Relationships between musical pitches are described as either consonant, when associated with a pleasant and harmonious sensation, or dissonant, when associated with an inharmonious feeling. The accurate singing of musical intervals requires communication between auditory feedback processing and vocal motor control (i.e. audio-vocal integration) to ensure that each note is produced correctly. The objective of this study is to investigate the neural mechanisms through which trained musicians produce consonant and dissonant intervals. We utilized 4 musical intervals (specifically, an octave, a major seventh, a fifth, and a tritone) as the main stimuli for auditory discrimination testing, and we used the same interval tasks to assess vocal accuracy in a group of musicians (11 subjects, all female vocal students at conservatory level). The intervals were chosen so as to test for differences in recognition and production of consonant and dissonant intervals, as well as narrow and wide intervals. The subjects were studied using fMRI during performance of the interval tasks; the control condition consisted of passive listening. Singing dissonant intervals as opposed to singing consonant intervals led to an increase in activation in several regions, most notably the primary auditory cortex, the primary somatosensory cortex, the amygdala, the left putamen, and the right insula. Singing wide intervals as opposed to singing narrow intervals resulted in the activation of the right anterior insula. Moreover, we also observed a correlation between singing in tune and brain activity in the premotor cortex, and a positive correlation between training and activation of primary somatosensory cortex, primary motor cortex, and premotor cortex during singing. When singing dissonant intervals, a higher degree of training correlated with the right thalamus and the left putamen. Our results indicate that singing dissonant intervals requires greater involvement of neural mechanisms

  17. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “P” values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

    PubMed Central

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958

  18. Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions.

    PubMed

    Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith

    2017-01-01

    When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

  19. Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

    PubMed

    Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

    2008-08-01

    We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

  20. Comparison of Scheimpflug imaging and spectral domain anterior segment optical coherence tomography for detection of narrow anterior chamber angles.

    PubMed

    Grewal, D S; Brar, G S; Jain, R; Grewal, S P S

    2011-05-01

    To compare the performance of anterior chamber volume (ACV) and anterior chamber depth (ACD) obtained using Scheimpflug imaging with angle opening distance (AOD500) and trabecular-iris space area (TISA500) obtained using spectral domain anterior segment optical coherence tomography (SD-ASOCT) in detecting narrow angles classified using gonioscopy. In this prospective, cross-sectional observational study, 265 eyes of 265 consecutive patients underwent sequential Scheimpflug imaging, SD-ASOCT imaging, and gonioscopy. Correlations between gonioscopy grading, ACV, ACD, AOD500, and TISA500 were evaluated. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs) were calculated to assess the performance of ACV, ACD, AOD500, and TISA500 in detecting narrow angles (defined as Shaffer grade ≤1 in all quadrants). SD-ASOCT images were obtained at the nasal and temporal quadrants only. Twenty-eight eyes (10.6%) were classified as narrow angles on gonioscopy. ACV correlated with gonioscopy grading (P<0.001) for temporal (r=0.204), superior (r=0.251), nasal (r=0.213), and inferior (r=0.236) quadrants. ACV correlated with TISA500 for nasal (r=0.135, P=0.029) and temporal (P=0.160, P=0.009) quadrants and also with AOD500 for nasal (r=0.498, P<0.001) and temporal (r=0.517, P<0.001) quadrants. For detection of narrow angles, ACV (AUC=0.935; 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.898-0.961) performed similar to ACD (AUC=0.88, P=0.06) and significantly better than AOD500 nasal (AUC=0.761, P=0.001), AOD500 temporal (AUC=0.808, P<0.001), TISA500 nasal (AUC=0.756, P<0.001), and TISA500 temporal (AUC=0.738, P<0.001). Using a cutoff of 113 mm(3), ACV had 90% sensitivity and 88% specificity for detecting narrow angles. Positive and negative LRs for ACV were 8.63 (95% CI=7.4-10.0) and 0.11 (95% CI=0.03-0.4), respectively. ACV measurements using Scheimpflug imaging outperformed AOD500 and TISA500 using SD-ASOCT for detecting narrow angles.

  1. Comparison of Scheimpflug imaging and spectral domain anterior segment optical coherence tomography for detection of narrow anterior chamber angles

    PubMed Central

    Grewal, D S; Brar, G S; Jain, R; Grewal, S P S

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To compare the performance of anterior chamber volume (ACV) and anterior chamber depth (ACD) obtained using Scheimpflug imaging with angle opening distance (AOD500) and trabecular-iris space area (TISA500) obtained using spectral domain anterior segment optical coherence tomography (SD-ASOCT) in detecting narrow angles classified using gonioscopy. Methods In this prospective, cross-sectional observational study, 265 eyes of 265 consecutive patients underwent sequential Scheimpflug imaging, SD-ASOCT imaging, and gonioscopy. Correlations between gonioscopy grading, ACV, ACD, AOD500, and TISA500 were evaluated. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs) were calculated to assess the performance of ACV, ACD, AOD500, and TISA500 in detecting narrow angles (defined as Shaffer grade ≤1 in all quadrants). SD-ASOCT images were obtained at the nasal and temporal quadrants only. Results Twenty-eight eyes (10.6%) were classified as narrow angles on gonioscopy. ACV correlated with gonioscopy grading (P<0.001) for temporal (r=0.204), superior (r=0.251), nasal (r=0.213), and inferior (r=0.236) quadrants. ACV correlated with TISA500 for nasal (r=0.135, P=0.029) and temporal (P=0.160, P=0.009) quadrants and also with AOD500 for nasal (r=0.498, P<0.001) and temporal (r=0.517, P<0.001) quadrants. For detection of narrow angles, ACV (AUC=0.935; 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.898–0.961) performed similar to ACD (AUC=0.88, P=0.06) and significantly better than AOD500 nasal (AUC=0.761, P=0.001), AOD500 temporal (AUC=0.808, P<0.001), TISA500 nasal (AUC=0.756, P<0.001), and TISA500 temporal (AUC=0.738, P<0.001). Using a cutoff of 113 mm3, ACV had 90% sensitivity and 88% specificity for detecting narrow angles. Positive and negative LRs for ACV were 8.63 (95% CI=7.4–10.0) and 0.11 (95% CI=0.03–0.4), respectively. Conclusions ACV measurements using Scheimpflug imaging outperformed AOD500 and TISA500 using

  2. Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: What Does Expertise Buy You?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKenzie, Craig R. M.; Liersch, Michael J.; Yaniv, Ilan

    2008-01-01

    People's 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students…

  3. Confidence intervals for effect sizes: compliance and clinical significance in the Journal of Consulting and clinical Psychology.

    PubMed

    Odgaard, Eric C; Fowler, Robert L

    2010-06-01

    In 2005, the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (JCCP) became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest editorial effort to improve statistical reporting practices in any APA journal in at least a decade, in this article we investigate the efficacy of that change. All intervention studies published in JCCP in 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 were reviewed. Each article was coded for method of clinical significance, type of ES, and type of associated CI, broken down by statistical test (F, t, chi-square, r/R(2), and multivariate modeling). By 2008, clinical significance compliance was 75% (up from 31%), with 94% of studies reporting some measure of ES (reporting improved for individual statistical tests ranging from eta(2) = .05 to .17, with reasonable CIs). Reporting of CIs for ESs also improved, although only to 40%. Also, the vast majority of reported CIs used approximations, which become progressively less accurate for smaller sample sizes and larger ESs (cf. Algina & Kessleman, 2003). Changes are near asymptote for ESs and clinical significance, but CIs lag behind. As CIs for ESs are required for primary outcomes, we show how to compute CIs for the vast majority of ESs reported in JCCP, with an example of how to use CIs for ESs as a method to assess clinical significance.

  4. The Interpretation of Scholars' Interpretations of Confidence Intervals: Criticism, Replication, and Extension of Hoekstra et al. (2014)

    PubMed Central

    García-Pérez, Miguel A.; Alcalá-Quintana, Rocío

    2016-01-01

    Hoekstra et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2014, 21:1157–1164) surveyed the interpretation of confidence intervals (CIs) by first-year students, master students, and researchers with six items expressing misinterpretations of CIs. They asked respondents to answer all items, computed the number of items endorsed, and concluded that misinterpretation of CIs is robust across groups. Their design may have produced this outcome artifactually for reasons that we describe. This paper discusses first the two interpretations of CIs and, hence, why misinterpretation cannot be inferred from endorsement of some of the items. Next, a re-analysis of Hoekstra et al.'s data reveals some puzzling differences between first-year and master students that demand further investigation. For that purpose, we designed a replication study with an extended questionnaire including two additional items that express correct interpretations of CIs (to compare endorsement of correct vs. nominally incorrect interpretations) and we asked master students to indicate which items they would have omitted had they had the option (to distinguish deliberate from uninformed endorsement caused by the forced-response format). Results showed that incognizant first-year students endorsed correct and nominally incorrect items identically, revealing that the two item types are not differentially attractive superficially; in contrast, master students were distinctively more prone to endorsing correct items when their uninformed responses were removed, although they admitted to nescience more often that might have been expected. Implications for teaching practices are discussed. PMID:27458424

  5. Study of FibroTest and hyaluronic acid biological variation in healthy volunteers and comparison of serum hyaluronic acid biological variation between chronic liver diseases of different etiology and fibrotic stage using confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Istaces, Nicolas; Gulbis, Béatrice

    2015-07-01

    Personalized ranges of liver fibrosis serum biomarkers such as FibroTest or hyaluronic acid could be used for early detection of fibrotic changes in patients with progressive chronic liver disease. Our aim was to generate reliable biological variation estimates for these two biomarkers with confidence intervals for within-subject biological variation and reference change value. Nine fasting healthy volunteers and 66 chronic liver disease patients were included. Biological variation estimates were calculated for FibroTest in healthy volunteers, and for hyaluronic acid in healthy volunteers and chronic liver disease patients stratified by etiology and liver fibrosis stage. In healthy volunteers, within-subject biological coefficient of variation (with 95% confidence intervals) and index of individuality were 20% (16%-28%) and 0.6 for FibroTest and 34% (27%-47%) and 0.79 for hyaluronic acid, respectively. Overall hyaluronic acid within-subject biological coefficient of variation was similar among non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis C with 41% (34%-52%) and 45% (39%-55%), respectively, in contrast to chronic hepatitis B with 170% (140%-215%). Hyaluronic acid within-subject biological coefficients of variation were similar between F0-F1, F2 and F3 liver fibrosis stages in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease with 34% (25%-49%), 41% (31%-59%) and 34% (23%-62%), respectively, and in chronic hepatitis C with 34% (27%-47%), 33% (26%-45%) and 38% (27%-65%), respectively. However, corresponding hyaluronic acid indexes of individuality were lower in the higher fibrosis stages. Non-overlapping confidence intervals of biological variation estimates allowed us to detect significant differences regarding hyaluronic acid biological variation between chronic liver disease subgroups. Copyright © 2015 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  7. A spreadsheet template compatible with Microsoft Excel and iWork Numbers that returns the simultaneous confidence intervals for all pairwise differences between multiple sample means.

    PubMed

    Brown, Angus M

    2010-04-01

    The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks.

    PubMed

    Papadopoulos, Harris; Haralambous, Haris

    2011-10-01

    This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

    PubMed

    Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

    2013-12-01

    The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

  10. Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.

    PubMed

    Lyons-Amos, Mark; Padmadas, Sabu S; Durrant, Gabriele B

    2014-08-11

    To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context. Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries. Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected. The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls. Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36 months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage. Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth. Published by

  11. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  12. Is Perceptual Narrowing Too Narrow?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cashon, Cara H.; Denicola, Christopher A.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing list of examples illustrating that infants are transitioning from having earlier abilities that appear more "universal," "broadly tuned," or "unconstrained" to having later abilities that appear more "specialized," "narrowly tuned," or "constrained." Perceptual narrowing, a well-known phenomenon related to face, speech, and…

  13. Effects of Training and Feedback on Accuracy of Predicting Rectosigmoid Neoplastic Lesions and Selection of Surveillance Intervals by Endoscopists Performing Optical Diagnosis of Diminutive Polyps.

    PubMed

    Vleugels, Jasper L A; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Hazewinkel, Yark; Wanders, Linda K; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2018-05-01

    Real-time differentiation of diminutive polyps (1-5 mm) during endoscopy could replace histopathology analysis. According to guidelines, implementation of optical diagnosis into routine practice would require it to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with a negative predictive value (NPV) of more than 90%, using histologic findings as a reference, and agreement with histology-based surveillance intervals for more than 90% of cases. We performed a prospective study with 39 endoscopists accredited to perform colonoscopies on participants with positive results from fecal immunochemical tests in the Bowel Cancer Screening Program at 13 centers in the Netherlands. Endoscopists were trained in optical diagnosis using a validated module (Workgroup serrAted polypS and Polyposis). After meeting predefined performance thresholds in the training program, the endoscopists started a 1-year program (continuation phase) in which they performed narrow band imaging analyses during colonoscopies of participants in the screening program and predicted histological findings with confidence levels. The endoscopists were randomly assigned to groups that received feedback or no feedback on the accuracy of their predictions. Primary outcome measures were endoscopists' abilities to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions (using histology as a reference) with NPVs of 90% or more, and selecting surveillance intervals that agreed with those determined by histology for at least 90% of cases. Of 39 endoscopists initially trained, 27 (69%) completed the training program. During the continuation phase, these 27 endoscopists performed 3144 colonoscopies in which 4504 diminutive polyps were removed. The endoscopists identified neoplastic lesions with a pooled NPV of 90.8% (95% confidence interval 88.6-92.6); their proposed surveillance intervals agreed with those determined by histologic analysis for 95.4% of cases (95% confidence interval 94.0-96.6). Findings did not differ between the group

  14. Bootstrap Signal-to-Noise Confidence Intervals: An Objective Method for Subject Exclusion and Quality Control in ERP Studies

    PubMed Central

    Parks, Nathan A.; Gannon, Matthew A.; Long, Stephanie M.; Young, Madeleine E.

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of event-related potential (ERP) data includes several steps to ensure that ERPs meet an appropriate level of signal quality. One such step, subject exclusion, rejects subject data if ERP waveforms fail to meet an appropriate level of signal quality. Subject exclusion is an important quality control step in the ERP analysis pipeline as it ensures that statistical inference is based only upon those subjects exhibiting clear evoked brain responses. This critical quality control step is most often performed simply through visual inspection of subject-level ERPs by investigators. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective, and susceptible to investigator bias, as there are no standards as to what constitutes an ERP of sufficient signal quality. Here, we describe a standardized and objective method for quantifying waveform quality in individual subjects and establishing criteria for subject exclusion. The approach uses bootstrap resampling of ERP waveforms (from a pool of all available trials) to compute a signal-to-noise ratio confidence interval (SNR-CI) for individual subject waveforms. The lower bound of this SNR-CI (SNRLB) yields an effective and objective measure of signal quality as it ensures that ERP waveforms statistically exceed a desired signal-to-noise criterion. SNRLB provides a quantifiable metric of individual subject ERP quality and eliminates the need for subjective evaluation of waveform quality by the investigator. We detail the SNR-CI methodology, establish the efficacy of employing this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate its utility in practice when applied to ERP datasets. PMID:26903849

  15. Microvascular anastomosis simulation using a chicken thigh model: Interval versus massed training.

    PubMed

    Schoeff, Stephen; Hernandez, Brian; Robinson, Derek J; Jameson, Mark J; Shonka, David C

    2017-11-01

    To compare the effectiveness of massed versus interval training when teaching otolaryngology residents microvascular suturing on a validated microsurgical model. Otolaryngology residents were placed into interval (n = 7) or massed (n = 7) training groups. The interval group performed three separate 30-minute practice sessions separated by at least 1 week, and the massed group performed a single 90-minute practice session. Both groups viewed a video demonstration and recorded a pretest prior to the first training session. A post-test was administered following the last practice session. At an academic medical center, 14 otolaryngology residents were assigned using stratified randomization to interval or massed training. Blinded evaluators graded performance using a validated microvascular Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill tool. The tool is comprised of two major components: task-specific score (TSS) and global rating scale (GRS). Participants also received pre- and poststudy surveys to compare subjective confidence in multiple aspects of microvascular skill acquisition. Overall, all residents showed increased TSS and GRS on post- versus pretest. After completion of training, the interval group had a statistically significant increase in both TSS and GRS, whereas the massed group's increase was not significant. Residents in both groups reported significantly increased levels of confidence after completion of the study. Self-directed learning using a chicken thigh artery model may benefit microsurgical skills, competence, and confidence for resident surgeons. Interval training results in significant improvement in early development of microvascular anastomosis skills, whereas massed training does not. NA. Laryngoscope, 127:2490-2494, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  16. Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

    2003-07-01

    Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the

  17. Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

    2015-03-01

    We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

    Treesearch

    Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

    2002-01-01

    Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

  19. Confidence estimation for quantitative photoacoustic imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gröhl, Janek; Kirchner, Thomas; Maier-Hein, Lena

    2018-02-01

    Quantification of photoacoustic (PA) images is one of the major challenges currently being addressed in PA research. Tissue properties can be quantified by correcting the recorded PA signal with an estimation of the corresponding fluence. Fluence estimation itself, however, is an ill-posed inverse problem which usually needs simplifying assumptions to be solved with state-of-the-art methods. These simplifications, as well as noise and artifacts in PA images reduce the accuracy of quantitative PA imaging (PAI). This reduction in accuracy is often localized to image regions where the assumptions do not hold true. This impedes the reconstruction of functional parameters when averaging over entire regions of interest (ROI). Averaging over a subset of voxels with a high accuracy would lead to an improved estimation of such parameters. To achieve this, we propose a novel approach to the local estimation of confidence in quantitative reconstructions of PA images. It makes use of conditional probability densities to estimate confidence intervals alongside the actual quantification. It encapsulates an estimation of the errors introduced by fluence estimation as well as signal noise. We validate the approach using Monte Carlo generated data in combination with a recently introduced machine learning-based approach to quantitative PAI. Our experiments show at least a two-fold improvement in quantification accuracy when evaluating on voxels with high confidence instead of thresholding signal intensity.

  20. Five-band microwave radiometer system for noninvasive brain temperature measurement in newborn babies: Phantom experiment and confidence interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiura, T.; Hirata, H.; Hand, J. W.; van Leeuwen, J. M. J.; Mizushina, S.

    2011-10-01

    Clinical trials of hypothermic brain treatment for newborn babies are currently hindered by the difficulty in measuring deep brain temperatures. As one of the possible methods for noninvasive and continuous temperature monitoring that is completely passive and inherently safe is passive microwave radiometry (MWR). We have developed a five-band microwave radiometer system with a single dual-polarized, rectangular waveguide antenna operating within the 1-4 GHz range and a method for retrieving the temperature profile from five radiometric brightness temperatures. This paper addresses (1) the temperature calibration for five microwave receivers, (2) the measurement experiment using a phantom model that mimics the temperature profile in a newborn baby, and (3) the feasibility for noninvasive monitoring of deep brain temperatures. Temperature resolutions were 0.103, 0.129, 0.138, 0.105 and 0.111 K for 1.2, 1.65, 2.3, 3.0 and 3.6 GHz receivers, respectively. The precision of temperature estimation (2σ confidence interval) was about 0.7°C at a 5-cm depth from the phantom surface. Accuracy, which is the difference between the estimated temperature using this system and the measured temperature by a thermocouple at a depth of 5 cm, was about 2°C. The current result is not satisfactory for clinical application because the clinical requirement for accuracy must be better than 1°C for both precision and accuracy at a depth of 5 cm. Since a couple of possible causes for this inaccuracy have been identified, we believe that the system can take a step closer to the clinical application of MWR for hypothermic rescue treatment.

  1. An appraisal of statistical procedures used in derivation of reference intervals.

    PubMed

    Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Boyd, James C

    2010-11-01

    When conducting studies to derive reference intervals (RIs), various statistical procedures are commonly applied at each step, from the planning stages to final computation of RIs. Determination of the necessary sample size is an important consideration, and evaluation of at least 400 individuals in each subgroup has been recommended to establish reliable common RIs in multicenter studies. Multiple regression analysis allows identification of the most important factors contributing to variation in test results, while accounting for possible confounding relationships among these factors. Of the various approaches proposed for judging the necessity of partitioning reference values, nested analysis of variance (ANOVA) is the likely method of choice owing to its ability to handle multiple groups and being able to adjust for multiple factors. Box-Cox power transformation often has been used to transform data to a Gaussian distribution for parametric computation of RIs. However, this transformation occasionally fails. Therefore, the non-parametric method based on determination of the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles following sorting of the data, has been recommended for general use. The performance of the Box-Cox transformation can be improved by introducing an additional parameter representing the origin of transformation. In simulations, the confidence intervals (CIs) of reference limits (RLs) calculated by the parametric method were narrower than those calculated by the non-parametric approach. However, the margin of difference was rather small owing to additional variability in parametrically-determined RLs introduced by estimation of parameters for the Box-Cox transformation. The parametric calculation method may have an advantage over the non-parametric method in allowing identification and exclusion of extreme values during RI computation.

  2. Searching for Variability of NV Intrinsic Narrow Absorption Line Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodruck, Michael; Charlton, Jane; Ganguly, Rajib

    2018-01-01

    The majority of quasar absorption line systems with NV detected are found within the associated region (within 5000 km/s of the quasar redshift) and many/most are believed to be related to the quasar accretion disk wind or outflows. The most definite evidence that these NV absorbers are "intrinsic" is partial covering of the quasar continuum source and/or broad line region. Over 75 quasars containing NV narrow absorption lines have observations obtained at different times with the Keck/HIRES and the VLT/UVES spectrographs at high resolution. The interval between these observations range from months to a decade in the quasar rest frame. While variability is common for intrinsic broad and mini-broad absorption lines, intrinsic narrow absorption lines have been found to be less likely to vary, though systematic studies with large, high quality datasets have been limited. The variability timescales are useful for deriving gas densities and thus the distances from the central engines. This is important in mapping the quasar surroundings, understanding the accretion disk wind mechanism, and assessing the effect the wind has on the galaxy surroundings. We report on the results of a systematic study of variability of NV NALs, exploiting the overlap of targets for observations in the archives of Keck and VLT, and discuss the consequences for interpretation of the origin of intrinsic narrow absorption lines.

  3. The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

    2012-01-01

    Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

  4. Search for narrow high-mass resonances in proton-proton collisions at √{ s} = 8 TeV decaying to a Z and a Higgs boson

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Bergauer, T.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hartl, C.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Kiesenhofer, W.; Knünz, V.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Mikulec, I.; Rabady, D.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, H.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Treberer-Treberspurg, W.; Waltenberger, W.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; Alderweireldt, S.; Bansal, S.; Cornelis, T.; De Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Knutsson, A.; Lauwers, J.; Luyckx, S.; Ochesanu, S.; Rougny, R.; Van De Klundert, M.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Van Spilbeeck, A.; Blekman, F.; Blyweert, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Daci, N.; Heracleous, N.; Keaveney, J.; Lowette, S.; Maes, M.; Olbrechts, A.; Python, Q.; Strom, D.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Villella, I.; Caillol, C.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Dobur, D.; Favart, L.; Gay, A. P. R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Léonard, A.; Mohammadi, A.; Perniè, L.; Randle-conde, A.; Reis, T.; Seva, T.; Thomas, L.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Wang, J.; Zenoni, F.; Adler, V.; Beernaert, K.; Benucci, L.; Cimmino, A.; Costantini, S.; Crucy, S.; Fagot, A.; Garcia, G.; Mccartin, J.; Ocampo Rios, A. A.; Poyraz, D.; Ryckbosch, D.; Salva Diblen, S.; Sigamani, M.; Strobbe, N.; Thyssen, F.; Tytgat, M.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Beluffi, C.; Bruno, G.; Castello, R.; Caudron, A.; Ceard, L.; Da Silveira, G. G.; Delaere, C.; du Pree, T.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Hollar, J.; Jafari, A.; Jez, P.; Komm, M.; Lemaitre, V.; Nuttens, C.; Pagano, D.; Perrini, L.; Pin, A.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Popov, A.; Quertenmont, L.; Selvaggi, M.; Vidal Marono, M.; Vizan Garcia, J. M.; Beliy, N.; Caebergs, T.; Daubie, E.; Hammad, G. H.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Alves, G. A.; Brito, L.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Dos Reis Martins, T.; Molina, J.; Mora Herrera, C.; Pol, M. 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F.; Bloch, P.; Bocci, A.; Bonato, A.; Bondu, O.; Botta, C.; Breuker, H.; Camporesi, T.; Cerminara, G.; Colafranceschi, S.; D'Alfonso, M.; d'Enterria, D.; Dabrowski, A.; David, A.; De Guio, F.; De Roeck, A.; De Visscher, S.; Di Marco, E.; Dobson, M.; Dordevic, M.; Dorney, B.; Dupont-Sagorin, N.; Elliott-Peisert, A.; Franzoni, G.; Funk, W.; Gigi, D.; Gill, K.; Giordano, D.; Girone, M.; Glege, F.; Guida, R.; Gundacker, S.; Guthoff, M.; Hammer, J.; Hansen, M.; Harris, P.; Hegeman, J.; Innocente, V.; Janot, P.; Kousouris, K.; Krajczar, K.; Lecoq, P.; Lourenço, C.; Magini, N.; Malgeri, L.; Mannelli, M.; Marrouche, J.; Masetti, L.; Meijers, F.; Mersi, S.; Meschi, E.; Moortgat, F.; Morovic, S.; Mulders, M.; Orfanelli, S.; Orsini, L.; Pape, L.; Perez, E.; Petrilli, A.; Petrucciani, G.; Pfeiffer, A.; Pimiä, M.; Piparo, D.; Plagge, M.; Racz, A.; Rolandi, G.; Rovere, M.; Sakulin, H.; Schäfer, C.; Schwick, C.; Sharma, A.; Siegrist, P.; Silva, P.; Simon, M.; Sphicas, P.; Spiga, D.; Steggemann, J.; Stieger, B.; Stoye, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Treille, D.; Tsirou, A.; Veres, G. I.; Wardle, N.; Wöhri, H. K.; Wollny, H.; Zeuner, W. D.; Bertl, W.; Deiters, K.; Erdmann, W.; Horisberger, R.; Ingram, Q.; Kaestli, H. C.; Kotlinski, D.; Langenegger, U.; Renker, D.; Rohe, T.; Bachmair, F.; Bäni, L.; Bianchini, L.; Buchmann, M. A.; Casal, B.; Chanon, N.; Dissertori, G.; Dittmar, M.; Donegà, M.; Dünser, M.; Eller, P.; Grab, C.; Hits, D.; Hoss, J.; Kasieczka, G.; Lustermann, W.; Mangano, B.; Marini, A. C.; Marionneau, M.; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, P.; Masciovecchio, M.; Meister, D.; Mohr, N.; Musella, P.; Nägeli, C.; Nessi-Tedaldi, F.; Pandolfi, F.; Pauss, F.; Perrozzi, L.; Peruzzi, M.; Quittnat, M.; Rebane, L.; Rossini, M.; Starodumov, A.; Takahashi, M.; Theofilatos, K.; Wallny, R.; Weber, H. A.; Amsler, C.; Canelli, M. F.; Chiochia, V.; De Cosa, A.; Galloni, C.; Hinzmann, A.; Hreus, T.; Kilminster, B.; Lange, C.; Ngadiuba, J.; Pinna, D.; Robmann, P.; Ronga, F. J.; Taroni, S.; Yang, Y.; Cardaci, M.; Chen, K. H.; Ferro, C.; Kuo, C. M.; Lin, W.; Lu, Y. J.; Volpe, R.; Yu, S. S.; Chang, P.; Chang, Y. H.; Chao, Y.; Chen, K. F.; Chen, P. H.; Dietz, C.; Grundler, U.; Hou, W.-S.; Liu, Y. F.; Lu, R.-S.; Miñano Moya, M.; Petrakou, E.; Tsai, J. F.; Tzeng, Y. M.; Wilken, R.; Asavapibhop, B.; Singh, G.; Srimanobhas, N.; Suwonjandee, N.; Adiguzel, A.; Bakirci, M. N.; Cerci, S.; Dozen, C.; Dumanoglu, I.; Eskut, E.; Girgis, S.; Gokbulut, G.; Guler, Y.; Gurpinar, E.; Hos, I.; Kangal, E. E.; Kayis Topaksu, A.; Onengut, G.; Ozdemir, K.; Ozturk, S.; Polatoz, A.; Sunar Cerci, D.; Tali, B.; Topakli, H.; Vergili, M.; Zorbilmez, C.; Akin, I. V.; Bilin, B.; Bilmis, S.; Gamsizkan, H.; Isildak, B.; Karapinar, G.; Ocalan, K.; Sekmen, S.; Surat, U. E.; Yalvac, M.; Zeyrek, M.; Albayrak, E. A.; Gülmez, E.; Kaya, M.; Kaya, O.; Yetkin, T.; Cankocak, K.; Vardarlı, F. I.; Levchuk, L.; Sorokin, P.; Brooke, J. J.; Clement, E.; Cussans, D.; Flacher, H.; Goldstein, J.; Grimes, M.; Heath, G. P.; Heath, H. F.; Jacob, J.; Kreczko, L.; Lucas, C.; Meng, Z.; Newbold, D. M.; Paramesvaran, S.; Poll, A.; Sakuma, T.; Seif El Nasr-storey, S.; Senkin, S.; Smith, V. J.; Bell, K. W.; Belyaev, A.; Brew, C.; Brown, R. M.; Cockerill, D. J. A.; Coughlan, J. A.; Harder, K.; Harper, S.; Olaiya, E.; Petyt, D.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C. H.; Thea, A.; Tomalin, I. R.; Williams, T.; Womersley, W. J.; Worm, S. D.; Baber, M.; Bainbridge, R.; Buchmuller, O.; Burton, D.; Colling, D.; Cripps, N.; Dauncey, P.; Davies, G.; Della Negra, M.; Dunne, P.; Elwood, A.; Ferguson, W.; Fulcher, J.; Futyan, D.; Hall, G.; Iles, G.; Jarvis, M.; Karapostoli, G.; Kenzie, M.; Lane, R.; Lucas, R.; Lyons, L.; Magnan, A.-M.; Malik, S.; Mathias, B.; Nash, J.; Nikitenko, A.; Pela, J.; Pesaresi, M.; Petridis, K.; Raymond, D. M.; Rogerson, S.; Rose, A.; Seez, C.; Sharp, P.; Tapper, A.; Vazquez Acosta, M.; Virdee, T.; Zenz, S. C.; Cole, J. E.; Hobson, P. R.; Khan, A.; Kyberd, P.; Leggat, D.; Leslie, D.; Reid, I. D.; Symonds, P.; Teodorescu, L.; Turner, M.; Dittmann, J.; Hatakeyama, K.; Kasmi, A.; Liu, H.; Pastika, N.; Scarborough, T.; Wu, Z.; Charaf, O.; Cooper, S. I.; Henderson, C.; Rumerio, P.; Avetisyan, A.; Bose, T.; Fantasia, C.; Lawson, P.; Richardson, C.; Rohlf, J.; St. John, J.; Sulak, L.; Alimena, J.; Berry, E.; Bhattacharya, S.; Christopher, G.; Cutts, D.; Demiragli, Z.; Dhingra, N.; Ferapontov, A.; Garabedian, A.; Heintz, U.; Laird, E.; Landsberg, G.; Mao, Z.; Narain, M.; Sagir, S.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Speer, T.; Swanson, J.; Breedon, R.; Breto, G.; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, M.; Chauhan, S.; Chertok, M.; Conway, J.; Conway, R.; Cox, P. T.; Erbacher, R.; Gardner, M.; Ko, W.; Lander, R.; Mulhearn, M.; Pellett, D.; Pilot, J.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shalhout, S.; Smith, J.; Squires, M.; Stolp, D.; Tripathi, M.; Wilbur, S.; Yohay, R.; Cousins, R.; Everaerts, P.; Farrell, C.; Hauser, J.; Ignatenko, M.; Rakness, G.; Takasugi, E.; Valuev, V.; Weber, M.; Burt, K.; Clare, R.; Ellison, J.; Gary, J. W.; Hanson, G.; Heilman, J.; Ivova Rikova, M.; Jandir, P.; Kennedy, E.; Lacroix, F.; Long, O. R.; Luthra, A.; Malberti, M.; Olmedo Negrete, M.; Shrinivas, A.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Wimpenny, S.; Branson, J. G.; Cerati, G. B.; Cittolin, S.; D'Agnolo, R. T.; Holzner, A.; Kelley, R.; Klein, D.; Letts, J.; Macneill, I.; Olivito, D.; Padhi, S.; Palmer, C.; Pieri, M.; Sani, M.; Sharma, V.; Simon, S.; Tadel, M.; Tu, Y.; Vartak, A.; Welke, C.; Würthwein, F.; Yagil, A.; Zevi Della Porta, G.; Barge, D.; Bradmiller-Feld, J.; Campagnari, C.; Danielson, T.; Dishaw, A.; Dutta, V.; Flowers, K.; Franco Sevilla, M.; Geffert, P.; George, C.; Golf, F.; Gouskos, L.; Incandela, J.; Justus, C.; Mccoll, N.; Mullin, S. D.; Richman, J.; Stuart, D.; To, W.; West, C.; Yoo, J.; Apresyan, A.; Bornheim, A.; Bunn, J.; Chen, Y.; Duarte, J.; Mott, A.; Newman, H. B.; Pena, C.; Pierini, M.; Spiropulu, M.; Vlimant, J. R.; Wilkinson, R.; Xie, S.; Zhu, R. Y.; Azzolini, V.; Calamba, A.; Carlson, B.; Ferguson, T.; Iiyama, Y.; Paulini, M.; Russ, J.; Vogel, H.; Vorobiev, I.; Cumalat, J. P.; Ford, W. T.; Gaz, A.; Krohn, M.; Luiggi Lopez, E.; Nauenberg, U.; Smith, J. G.; Stenson, K.; Wagner, S. R.; Alexander, J.; Chatterjee, A.; Chaves, J.; Chu, J.; Dittmer, S.; Eggert, N.; Mirman, N.; Nicolas Kaufman, G.; Patterson, J. R.; Ryd, A.; Salvati, E.; Skinnari, L.; Sun, W.; Teo, W. D.; Thom, J.; Thompson, J.; Tucker, J.; Weng, Y.; Winstrom, L.; Wittich, P.; Winn, D.; Abdullin, S.; Albrow, M.; Anderson, J.; Apollinari, G.; Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Beretvas, A.; Berryhill, J.; Bhat, P. C.; Bolla, G.; Burkett, K.; Butler, J. N.; Cheung, H. W. K.; Chlebana, F.; Cihangir, S.; Elvira, V. D.; Fisk, I.; Freeman, J.; Gottschalk, E.; Gray, L.; Green, D.; Grünendahl, S.; Gutsche, O.; Hanlon, J.; Hare, D.; Harris, R. M.; Hirschauer, J.; Hooberman, B.; Jindariani, S.; Johnson, M.; Joshi, U.; Klima, B.; Kreis, B.; Kwan, S.; Linacre, J.; Lincoln, D.; Lipton, R.; Liu, T.; Lopes De Sá, R.; Lykken, J.; Maeshima, K.; Marraffino, J. M.; Martinez Outschoorn, V. I.; Maruyama, S.; Mason, D.; McBride, P.; Merkel, P.; Mishra, K.; Mrenna, S.; Nahn, S.; Newman-Holmes, C.; O'Dell, V.; Prokofyev, O.; Sexton-Kennedy, E.; Soha, A.; Spalding, W. J.; Spiegel, L.; Taylor, L.; Tkaczyk, S.; Tran, N. V.; Uplegger, L.; Vaandering, E. W.; Vidal, R.; Whitbeck, A.; Whitmore, J.; Yang, F.; Acosta, D.; Avery, P.; Bortignon, P.; Bourilkov, D.; Carver, M.; Curry, D.; Das, S.; De Gruttola, M.; Di Giovanni, G. P.; Field, R. D.; Fisher, M.; Furic, I. K.; Hugon, J.; Konigsberg, J.; Korytov, A.; Kypreos, T.; Low, J. F.; Matchev, K.; Mei, H.; Milenovic, P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Muniz, L.; Rinkevicius, A.; Shchutska, L.; Snowball, M.; Sperka, D.; Yelton, J.; Zakaria, M.; Hewamanage, S.; Linn, S.; Markowitz, P.; Martinez, G.; Rodriguez, J. L.; Adams, J. R.; Adams, T.; Askew, A.; Bochenek, J.; Diamond, B.; Haas, J.; Hagopian, S.; Hagopian, V.; Johnson, K. F.; Prosper, H.; Veeraraghavan, V.; Weinberg, M.; Baarmand, M. M.; Hohlmann, M.; Kalakhety, H.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Bucinskaite, I.; Cavanaugh, R.; Evdokimov, O.; Gauthier, L.; Gerber, C. E.; Hofman, D. J.; Kurt, P.; O'Brien, C.; Sandoval Gonzalez, I. D.; Silkworth, C.; Turner, P.; Varelas, N.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Haytmyradov, M.; Khristenko, V.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Rahmat, R.; Sen, S.; Tan, P.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yi, K.; Anderson, I.; Barnett, B. A.; Blumenfeld, B.; Bolognesi, S.; Fehling, D.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Martin, C.; Swartz, M.; Xiao, M.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Benelli, G.; Bruner, C.; Gray, J.; Kenny, R. P., III; Majumder, D.; Malek, M.; Murray, M.; Noonan, D.; Sanders, S.; Sekaric, J.; Stringer, R.; Wang, Q.; Wood, J. S.; Chakaberia, I.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Khalil, S.; Makouski, M.; Maravin, Y.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Svintradze, I.; Gronberg, J.; Lange, D.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Baden, A.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Gomez, J. A.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kolberg, T.; Lu, Y.; Mignerey, A. C.; Pedro, K.; Skuja, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Tonwar, S. C.; Apyan, A.; Barbieri, R.; Bierwagen, K.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; Di Matteo, L.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Gulhan, D.; Klute, M.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Paus, C.; Ralph, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sumorok, K.; Velicanu, D.; Veverka, J.; Wyslouch, B.; Yang, M.; Zanetti, M.; Zhukova, V.; Dahmes, B.; Gude, A.; Kao, S. C.; Klapoetke, K.; Kubota, Y.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Rusack, R.; Singovsky, A.; Tambe, N.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Bose, S.; Claes, D. R.; Dominguez, A.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Keller, J.; Knowlton, D.; Kravchenko, I.; Lazo-Flores, J.; Meier, F.; Ratnikov, F.; Snow, G. R.; Zvada, M.; Dolen, J.; Godshalk, A.; Iashvili, I.; Kharchilava, A.; Kumar, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Baumgartel, D.; Chasco, M.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Trocino, D.; Wang, R.-J.; Wood, D.; Zhang, J.; Hahn, K. A.; Kubik, A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Schmitt, M.; Stoynev, S.; Sung, K.; Velasco, M.; Won, S.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Chan, K. M.; Drozdetskiy, A.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Lynch, S.; Marinelli, N.; Musienko, Y.; Pearson, T.; Planer, M.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Antonelli, L.; Brinson, J.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Kotov, K.; Ling, T. Y.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Winer, B. L.; Wolfe, H.; Wulsin, H. W.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Koay, S. A.; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Piroué, P.; Quan, X.; Saka, H.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Werner, J. S.; Zuranski, A.; Brownson, E.; Malik, S.; Mendez, H.; Ramirez Vargas, J. E.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bortoletto, D.; Gutay, L.; Hu, Z.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, K.; Kress, M.; Leonardo, N.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Primavera, F.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Shi, X.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Xu, L.; Zablocki, J.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Goldenzweig, P.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Korjenevski, S.; Petrillo, G.; Verzetti, M.; Vishnevskiy, D.; Ciesielski, R.; Demortier, L.; Goulianos, K.; Mesropian, C.; Arora, S.; Barker, A.; Chou, J. P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Contreras-Campana, E.; Duggan, D.; Ferencek, D.; Gershtein, Y.; Gray, R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hidas, D.; Kaplan, S.; Lath, A.; Panwalkar, S.; Park, M.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; York, A.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Dalchenko, M.; De Mattia, M.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Flanagan, W.; Gilmore, J.; Kamon, T.; Khotilovich, V.; Krutelyov, V.; Montalvo, R.; Osipenkov, I.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Roe, J.; Rose, A.; Safonov, A.; Suarez, I.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Cowden, C.; Damgov, J.; Dragoiu, C.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Kovitanggoon, K.; Kunori, S.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Volobouev, I.; Appelt, E.; Delannoy, A. G.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Mao, Y.; Melo, A.; Sharma, M.; Sheldon, P.; Snook, B.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Arenton, M. W.; Boutle, S.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Wolfe, E.; Wood, J.; Clarke, C.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Lamichhane, P.; Sturdy, J.; Belknap, D. A.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Friis, E.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Lazaridis, C.; Levine, A.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Ojalvo, I.; Perry, T.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ross, I.; Sarangi, T.; Savin, A.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Vuosalo, C.; Woods, N.

    2015-09-01

    A search for a narrow, high-mass resonance decaying into Z and Higgs (H) bosons is presented. The final state studied consists of a merged jet pair and a τ pair resulting from the decays of Z and H bosons, respectively. The analysis is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, collected with the CMS experiment in 2012, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb-1. In the resonance mass range of interest, which extends from 0.8 to 2.5 TeV, the Z and H bosons are produced with large momenta, which implies that the final products of the two quarks or the two τ leptons must be detected within a small angular interval. From a combination of all possible decay modes of the τ leptons, production cross sections in a range between 0.9 and 27.8 fb are excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the resonance mass.

  5. The influence of interpregnancy interval on infant mortality.

    PubMed

    McKinney, David; House, Melissa; Chen, Aimin; Muglia, Louis; DeFranco, Emily

    2017-03-01

    -<6 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.49) followed by interpregnancy intervals of 6-<12 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.30). Analysis stratified by maternal race revealed similar findings. Attributable risk calculation showed that 24.2% of infant mortalities following intervals of 0-<6 months and 14.1% with intervals of 6-<12 months are attributable to the short interpregnancy interval. By avoiding short interpregnancy intervals of ≤12 months we estimate that in the state of Ohio 31 infant mortalities (20 white and 8 black) per year could have been prevented and the infant mortality rate could have been reduced from 7.2-7.0 during this time frame. An interpregnancy interval of 12-60 months (1-5 years) between birth and conception of next pregnancy is associated with lowest risk of infant mortality. Public health initiatives and provider counseling to optimize birth spacing has the potential to significantly reduce infant mortality for both white and black mothers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

    PubMed

    Gilkey, Melissa B; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E; Reiter, Paul L; Dempsey, Amanda F; Brewer, Noel T

    2016-01-01

    To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42). Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

  7. Calculation of Retention Time Tolerance Windows with Absolute Confidence from Shared Liquid Chromatographic Retention Data

    PubMed Central

    Boswell, Paul G.; Abate-Pella, Daniel; Hewitt, Joshua T.

    2015-01-01

    Compound identification by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is a tedious process, mainly because authentic standards must be run on a user’s system to be able to confidently reject a potential identity from its retention time and mass spectral properties. Instead, it would be preferable to use shared retention time/index data to narrow down the identity, but shared data cannot be used to reject candidates with an absolute level of confidence because the data are strongly affected by differences between HPLC systems and experimental conditions. However, a technique called “retention projection” was recently shown to account for many of the differences. In this manuscript, we discuss an approach to calculate appropriate retention time tolerance windows for projected retention times, potentially making it possible to exclude candidates with an absolute level of confidence, without needing to have authentic standards of each candidate on hand. In a range of multi-segment gradients and flow rates run among seven different labs, the new approach calculated tolerance windows that were significantly more appropriate for each retention projection than global tolerance windows calculated for retention projections or linear retention indices. Though there were still some small differences between the labs that evidently were not taken into account, the calculated tolerance windows only needed to be relaxed by 50% to make them appropriate for all labs. Even then, 42% of the tolerance windows calculated in this study without standards were narrower than those required by WADA for positive identification, where standards must be run contemporaneously. PMID:26292624

  8. Calculation of retention time tolerance windows with absolute confidence from shared liquid chromatographic retention data.

    PubMed

    Boswell, Paul G; Abate-Pella, Daniel; Hewitt, Joshua T

    2015-09-18

    Compound identification by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is a tedious process, mainly because authentic standards must be run on a user's system to be able to confidently reject a potential identity from its retention time and mass spectral properties. Instead, it would be preferable to use shared retention time/index data to narrow down the identity, but shared data cannot be used to reject candidates with an absolute level of confidence because the data are strongly affected by differences between HPLC systems and experimental conditions. However, a technique called "retention projection" was recently shown to account for many of the differences. In this manuscript, we discuss an approach to calculate appropriate retention time tolerance windows for projected retention times, potentially making it possible to exclude candidates with an absolute level of confidence, without needing to have authentic standards of each candidate on hand. In a range of multi-segment gradients and flow rates run among seven different labs, the new approach calculated tolerance windows that were significantly more appropriate for each retention projection than global tolerance windows calculated for retention projections or linear retention indices. Though there were still some small differences between the labs that evidently were not taken into account, the calculated tolerance windows only needed to be relaxed by 50% to make them appropriate for all labs. Even then, 42% of the tolerance windows calculated in this study without standards were narrower than those required by WADA for positive identification, where standards must be run contemporaneously. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Indication of multiscaling in the volatility return intervals of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2008-01-01

    The distribution of the return intervals τ between price volatilities above a threshold height q for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined nonlinear mechanism, we investigate intraday data sets of 500 stocks which consist of Standard & Poor’s 500 index. We show that the cumulative distribution of return intervals has systematic deviations from scaling. We support this finding by studying the m -th moment μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , which show a certain trend with the mean interval ⟨τ⟩ . We generate surrogate records using the Schreiber method, and find that their cumulative distributions almost collapse to a single curve and moments are almost constant for most ranges of ⟨τ⟩ . Those substantial differences suggest that nonlinear correlations in the original volatility sequence account for the deviations from a single scaling law. We also find that the original and surrogate records exhibit slight tendencies for short and long ⟨τ⟩ , due to the discreteness and finite size effects of the records, respectively. To avoid as possible those effects for testing the multiscaling behavior, we investigate the moments in the range 10<⟨τ⟩≤100 , and find that the exponent α from the power law fitting μm˜⟨τ⟩α has a narrow distribution around α≠0 which depends on m for the 500 stocks. The distribution of α for the surrogate records are very narrow and centered around α=0 . This suggests that the return interval distribution exhibits multiscaling behavior due to the nonlinear correlations in the original volatility.

  10. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines

    PubMed Central

    Gilkey, Melissa B.; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E.; Reiter, Paul L.; Dempsey, Amanda F.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. Methods We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children’s vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents’ mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. Results A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54–0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76–0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40–1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42–1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23–1.42). Conclusions Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children. PMID:27391098

  11. The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship for Eyewitness Identification Decisions: Effects of Exposure Duration, Retention Interval, and Divided Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Matthew A.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

    2013-01-01

    Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the…

  12. Trends in P Value, Confidence Interval, and Power Analysis Reporting in Health Professions Education Research Reports: A Systematic Appraisal.

    PubMed

    Abbott, Eduardo F; Serrano, Valentina P; Rethlefsen, Melissa L; Pandian, T K; Naik, Nimesh D; West, Colin P; Pankratz, V Shane; Cook, David A

    2018-02-01

    To characterize reporting of P values, confidence intervals (CIs), and statistical power in health professions education research (HPER) through manual and computerized analysis of published research reports. The authors searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL in May 2016, for comparative research studies. For manual analysis of abstracts and main texts, they randomly sampled 250 HPER reports published in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, and 100 biomedical research reports published in 1985 and 2015. Automated computerized analysis of abstracts included all HPER reports published 1970-2015. In the 2015 HPER sample, P values were reported in 69/100 abstracts and 94 main texts. CIs were reported in 6 abstracts and 22 main texts. Most P values (≥77%) were ≤.05. Across all years, 60/164 two-group HPER studies had ≥80% power to detect a between-group difference of 0.5 standard deviations. From 1985 to 2015, the proportion of HPER abstracts reporting a CI did not change significantly (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% CI 1.04, 7.88) whereas that of main texts reporting a CI increased (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.39, 2.78). Comparison with biomedical studies revealed similar reporting of P values, but more frequent use of CIs in biomedicine. Automated analysis of 56,440 HPER abstracts found 14,867 (26.3%) reporting a P value, 3,024 (5.4%) reporting a CI, and increased reporting of P values and CIs from 1970 to 2015. P values are ubiquitous in HPER, CIs are rarely reported, and most studies are underpowered. Most reported P values would be considered statistically significant.

  13. Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

    2015-01-01

    Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Narrow band gap amorphous silicon semiconductors

    DOEpatents

    Madan, A.; Mahan, A.H.

    1985-01-10

    Disclosed is a narrow band gap amorphous silicon semiconductor comprising an alloy of amorphous silicon and a band gap narrowing element selected from the group consisting of Sn, Ge, and Pb, with an electron donor dopant selected from the group consisting of P, As, Sb, Bi and N. The process for producing the narrow band gap amorphous silicon semiconductor comprises the steps of forming an alloy comprising amorphous silicon and at least one of the aforesaid band gap narrowing elements in amount sufficient to narrow the band gap of the silicon semiconductor alloy below that of amorphous silicon, and also utilizing sufficient amounts of the aforesaid electron donor dopant to maintain the amorphous silicon alloy as an n-type semiconductor.

  15. Using narrow-band imaging with conventional hysteroscopy increases the detection of chronic endometritis in abnormal uterine bleeding and postmenopausal bleeding.

    PubMed

    Ozturk, Mustafa; Ulubay, Mustafa; Alanbay, Ibrahim; Keskin, Uğur; Karasahin, Emre; Yenen, Müfit Cemal

    2016-01-01

    A preliminary study was designed to evaluate whether a narrow-band imaging (NBI) endoscopic light source could detect chronic endometritis that was not identifiable with a white light hysteroscope. A total of 86 patients with endometrial pathology (71 abnormal uterine bleeding and 15 postmenopausal bleeding) were examined by NBI endoscopy and white light hysteroscopy between February 2010 and February 2011. The surgeon initially observed the uterine cavity using white light hysteroscopy and made a diagnostic impression, which was recorded. Subsequently, after pressing a button on the telescope, NBI was used to reevaluate the endometrial mucosa. The median age of the patients was 40 years (range: 30-60 years). Endometritis was diagnosed histologically. Six cases of abnormal uterine bleeding (6/71, 8.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.17) and one case of postmenopausal bleeding (1/15, 6%, 95%CI 0.01-0.29) were only diagnosed with chronic endometritis by NBI (7/86, 8.1%, 95%CI 0.04-0.15). Capillary patterns of the endometrium can be observed by NBI and this method can be used to assess chronic endometritis. © 2015 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  16. A Narrow Quantitative Trait Locus in C. elegans Coordinately Affects Longevity, Thermotolerance, and Resistance to Paraquat

    PubMed Central

    Vertino, Anthony; Ayyadevara, Srinivas; Thaden, John J.; Reis, Robert J. Shmookler

    2011-01-01

    By linkage mapping of quantitative trait loci, we previously identified at least 11 natural genetic variants that significantly modulate Caenorhabditis elegans life-span (LS), many of which would have eluded discovery by knock-down or mutation screens. A region on chromosome IV between markers stP13 and stP35 had striking effects on longevity in three inter-strain crosses (each P < 10−9). In order to define the limits of that interval, we have now constructed two independent lines by marker-based selection during 20 backcross generations, isolating the stP13–stP35 interval from strain Bergerac-BO in a CL2a background. These congenic lines differed significantly from CL2a in LS, assayed in two environments (each P < 0.001). We then screened for exchange of flanking markers to isolate recombinants that partition this region, because fine-mapping the boundaries for overlapping heteroallelic spans can greatly narrow the implicated interval. Recombinants carrying the CL2a allele at stP35 were consistently long-lived compared to those retaining the Bergerac-BO allele (P < 0.001), and more resistant to temperature elevation and paraquat (each ∼1.7-fold, P < 0.0001), but gained little protection from ultraviolet or peroxide stresses. Two rounds of recombinant screening, followed by fine-mapping of break-points and survival testing, narrowed the interval to 0.18 Mb (13.35–13.53 Mb) containing 26 putative genes and six small-nuclear RNAs – a manageable number of targets for functional assessment. PMID:22303358

  17. An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation.

    PubMed

    Chiang, Chieh; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

    2017-03-30

    In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

    PubMed

    Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

    2014-05-01

    To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial

  19. Search for narrow high-mass resonances in proton–proton collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}$$ = 8 TeV decaying to a Z and a Higgs boson

    DOE PAGES

    Khachatryan, Vardan

    2015-07-09

    A search for a narrow, high-mass resonance decaying into Z and Higgs (H) bosons is presented. The final state studied consists of a merged jet pair and a τ pair resulting from the decays of Z and H bosons, respectively. This analysis is based on a data sample of proton–proton collisions at a center-ofmass energy of 8 TeV, collected with the CMS experiment in 2012, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb -1. In the resonance mass range of interest, which extends from 0.8 to 2.5 TeV, the Z and H bosons are produced with large momenta, whichmore » implies that the final products of the two quarks or the two τ leptons must be detected within a small angular interval. A combination of all possible decay modes of the τ leptons, production cross sections in a range between 0.9 and 27.8 fb are excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the resonance mass.« less

  20. Face distinctiveness and delayed testing: differential effects on performance and confidence.

    PubMed

    Metzger, Mitchell M

    2006-04-01

    The author investigated the effect of delayed testing on participants' memory for distinctive and typical faces. Participants viewed distinctive and typical faces and were then tested for recognition immediately or after a delay of 3, 6, or 12 weeks. Consistent with prior research, analysis of measure of sensitivity (d') showed that participants performed better on distinctive rather than typical faces, and memory performance declined with longer retention intervals between study and testing. Furthermore, the superior performance on distinctive faces had vanished by the 12-week test. Contrary to d' data, however, an analysis of confidence scores indicated that participants were still significantly more confident on trials depicting distinctive faces, even with a 12-week delay between study and recognition testing.

  1. Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

    2014-01-01

    Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

  2. Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

    PubMed

    Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

    2010-08-06

    Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

  3. Interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder.

    PubMed

    Gunnes, Nina; Surén, Pål; Bresnahan, Michaeline; Hornig, Mady; Lie, Kari Kveim; Lipkin, W Ian; Magnus, Per; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Schjølberg, Synnve; Susser, Ezra Saul; Øyen, Anne-Siri; Stoltenberg, Camilla

    2013-11-01

    A recent California study reported increased risk of autistic disorder in children conceived within a year after the birth of a sibling. We assessed the association between interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder using nationwide registry data on pairs of singleton full siblings born in Norway. We defined interpregnancy interval as the time from birth of the first-born child to conception of the second-born child in a sibship. The outcome of interest was autistic disorder in the second-born child. Analyses were restricted to sibships in which the second-born child was born in 1990-2004. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by fitting ordinary logistic models and logistic generalized additive models. The study sample included 223,476 singleton full-sibling pairs. In sibships with interpregnancy intervals <9 months, 0.25% of the second-born children had autistic disorder, compared with 0.13% in the reference category (≥ 36 months). For interpregnancy intervals shorter than 9 months, the adjusted OR of autistic disorder in the second-born child was 2.18 (95% confidence interval 1.42-3.26). The risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child was also increased for interpregnancy intervals of 9-11 months in the adjusted analysis (OR = 1.71 [95% CI = 1.07-2.64]). Consistent with a previous report from California, interpregnancy intervals shorter than 1 year were associated with increased risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child. A possible explanation is depletion of micronutrients in mothers with closely spaced pregnancies.

  4. A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. Methods The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. Results The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. Conclusions If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used. PMID:24552686

  5. A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

    PubMed

    Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

    2014-02-19

    The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

  6. Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts. [Poisson-distributed photon counts from astrophysical sources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kraft, Ralph P.; Burrows, David N.; Nousek, John A.

    1991-01-01

    Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference.

  7. Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

    PubMed

    Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

    2014-01-01

    Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Optimal Measurement Interval for Emergency Department Crowding Estimation Tools.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hao; Ojha, Rohit P; Robinson, Richard D; Jackson, Bradford E; Shaikh, Sajid A; Cowden, Chad D; Shyamanand, Rath; Leuck, JoAnna; Schrader, Chet D; Zenarosa, Nestor R

    2017-11-01

    Emergency department (ED) crowding is a barrier to timely care. Several crowding estimation tools have been developed to facilitate early identification of and intervention for crowding. Nevertheless, the ideal frequency is unclear for measuring ED crowding by using these tools. Short intervals may be resource intensive, whereas long ones may not be suitable for early identification. Therefore, we aim to assess whether outcomes vary by measurement interval for 4 crowding estimation tools. Our eligible population included all patients between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, who were admitted to the JPS Health Network ED, which serves an urban population. We generated 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-hour ED crowding scores for each patient, using 4 crowding estimation tools (National Emergency Department Overcrowding Scale [NEDOCS], Severely Overcrowded, Overcrowded, and Not Overcrowded Estimation Tool [SONET], Emergency Department Work Index [EDWIN], and ED Occupancy Rate). Our outcomes of interest included ED length of stay (minutes) and left without being seen or eloped within 4 hours. We used accelerated failure time models to estimate interval-specific time ratios and corresponding 95% confidence limits for length of stay, in which the 1-hour interval was the reference. In addition, we used binomial regression with a log link to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and corresponding confidence limit for left without being seen. Our study population comprised 117,442 patients. The time ratios for length of stay were similar across intervals for each crowding estimation tool (time ratio=1.37 to 1.30 for NEDOCS, 1.44 to 1.37 for SONET, 1.32 to 1.27 for EDWIN, and 1.28 to 1.23 for ED Occupancy Rate). The RRs of left without being seen differences were also similar across intervals for each tool (RR=2.92 to 2.56 for NEDOCS, 3.61 to 3.36 for SONET, 2.65 to 2.40 for EDWIN, and 2.44 to 2.14 for ED Occupancy Rate). Our findings suggest limited variation in length of stay or left without being

  9. An alternative option for "resect and discard" strategy, using magnifying narrow-band imaging: a prospective "proof-of-principle" study.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, Yoji; Hanafusa, Masao; Kanzaki, Hiromitsu; Ohta, Takashi; Hanaoka, Noboru; Yamamoto, Sachiko; Higashino, Koji; Tomita, Yasuhiko; Uedo, Noriya; Ishihara, Ryu; Iishi, Hiroyasu

    2015-10-01

    The "resect and discard" strategy is beneficial for cost savings on screening and surveillance colonoscopy, but it has the risk to discard lesions with advanced histology or small invasive cancer (small advanced lesion; SALs). The aim of this study was to prove the principle of new "resect and discard" strategy with consideration for SALs using magnifying narrow-band imaging (M-NBI). Patients undergoing colonoscopy at a tertiary center were involved in this prospective trial. For each detected polyp <10 mm, optical diagnosis (OD) and virtual management ("leave in situ", "discard" or "send for pathology") were independently made using non-magnifying NBI (N-NBI) and M-NBI, and next surveillance interval were predicted. Histological and optical diagnosis results of all polyps were compared. While the management could be decided in 82% of polyps smaller than 10 mm, 24/31 (77%) SALs including two small invasive cancers were not discarded based on OD using M-NBI. The sensitivity [90% confidence interval (CI)] of M-NBI for SALs was 0.77 (0.61-0.89). The risk for discarding SALs using N-NBI was significantly higher than that using M-NBI (53 vs. 23%, p = 0.02). The diagnostic accuracy (95% CI) of M-NBI in distinguishing neoplastic from non-neoplastic lesions [0.88 (0.86-0.90)] was significantly better than that of N-NBI [0.84 (0.82-0.87)] (p = 0.005). The results of our study indicated that our "resect and discard" strategy using M-NBI could work to reduce the risk for discarding SALs including small invasive cancer (UMIN-CTR, UMIN000003740).

  10. Cardiac-resynchronization therapy in heart failure with a narrow QRS complex.

    PubMed

    Ruschitzka, Frank; Abraham, William T; Singh, Jagmeet P; Bax, Jeroen J; Borer, Jeffrey S; Brugada, Josep; Dickstein, Kenneth; Ford, Ian; Gorcsan, John; Gras, Daniel; Krum, Henry; Sogaard, Peter; Holzmeister, Johannes

    2013-10-10

    Cardiac-resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality in chronic systolic heart failure with a wide QRS complex. Mechanical dyssynchrony also occurs in patients with a narrow QRS complex, which suggests the potential usefulness of CRT in such patients. We conducted a randomized trial involving 115 centers to evaluate the effect of CRT in patients with New York Heart Association class III or IV heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less, a QRS duration of less than 130 msec, and echocardiographic evidence of left ventricular dyssynchrony. All patients underwent device implantation and were randomly assigned to have CRT capability turned on or off. The primary efficacy outcome was the composite of death from any cause or first hospitalization for worsening heart failure. On March 13, 2013, the study was stopped for futility on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring board. At study closure, the 809 patients who had undergone randomization had been followed for a mean of 19.4 months. The primary outcome occurred in 116 of 404 patients in the CRT group, as compared with 102 of 405 in the control group (28.7% vs. 25.2%; hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.57; P=0.15). There were 45 deaths in the CRT group and 26 in the control group (11.1% vs. 6.4%; hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.93; P=0.02). In patients with systolic heart failure and a QRS duration of less than 130 msec, CRT does not reduce the rate of death or hospitalization for heart failure and may increase mortality. (Funded by Biotronik and GE Healthcare; EchoCRT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00683696.).

  11. Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.

    PubMed

    Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen

    2012-10-01

    Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.

  12. Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

    PubMed

    Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

    2015-05-01

    Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

    PubMed

    Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

    2011-11-30

    Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

  14. Variable frame rate transmission - A review of methodology and application to narrow-band LPC speech coding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viswanathan, V. R.; Makhoul, J.; Schwartz, R. M.; Huggins, A. W. F.

    1982-04-01

    The variable frame rate (VFR) transmission methodology developed, implemented, and tested in the years 1973-1978 for efficiently transmitting linear predictive coding (LPC) vocoder parameters extracted from the input speech at a fixed frame rate is reviewed. With the VFR method, parameters are transmitted only when their values have changed sufficiently over the interval since their preceding transmission. Two distinct approaches to automatic implementation of the VFR method are discussed. The first bases the transmission decisions on comparisons between the parameter values of the present frame and the last transmitted frame. The second, which is based on a functional perceptual model of speech, compares the parameter values of all the frames that lie in the interval between the present frame and the last transmitted frame against a linear model of parameter variation over that interval. Also considered is the application of VFR transmission to the design of narrow-band LPC speech coders with average bit rates of 2000-2400 bts/s.

  15. Responsibility and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Zubin

    2013-01-01

    Background: Despite the changing role of the pharmacist in patient-centred practice, pharmacists anecdotally reported little confidence in their clinical decision-making skills and do not feel responsible for their patients. Observational findings have suggested these trends within the profession, but there is a paucity of evidence to explain why. We conducted an exploratory study with an objective to identify reasons for the lack of responsibility and/or confidence in various pharmacy practice settings. Methods: Pharmacist interviews were conducted via written response, face-to-face or telephone. Seven questions were asked on the topic of responsibility and confidence as it applies to pharmacy practice and how pharmacists think these themes differ in medicine. Interview transcripts were analyzed and divided by common theme. Quotations to support these themes are presented. Results: Twenty-nine pharmacists were asked to participate, and 18 responded (62% response rate). From these interviews, 6 themes were identified as barriers to confidence and responsibility: hierarchy of the medical system, role definitions, evolution of responsibility, ownership of decisions for confidence building, quality and consequences of mentorship and personality traits upon admission. Discussion: We identified 6 potential barriers to the development of pharmacists’ self-confidence and responsibility. These findings have practical applicability for educational research, future curriculum changes, experiential learning structure and pharmacy practice. Due to bias and the limitations of this form of exploratory research and small sample size, evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Conclusion: Pharmacists feel neither responsible nor confident for their clinical decisions due to social, educational, experiential and personal reasons. Can Pharm J 2013;146:155-161. PMID:23795200

  16. Physical inactivity is associated with narrower lumbar intervertebral discs, high fat content of paraspinal muscles and low back pain and disability.

    PubMed

    Teichtahl, Andrew J; Urquhart, Donna M; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wluka, Anita E; O'Sullivan, Richard; Jones, Graeme; Cicuttini, Flavia M

    2015-05-07

    Although physical inactivity has been associated with numerous chronic musculoskeletal complaints, few studies have examined its associations with spinal structures. Moreover, previously reported associations between physical activity and low back pain are conflicting. This study examined the associations between physical inactivity and intervertebral disc height, paraspinal fat content and low back pain and disability. Seventy-two community-based volunteers not selected for low back pain underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of their lumbosacral spine (L1 to S1) between 2011 and 2012. Physical activity was assessed between 2005 and 2008 by questionnaire, while low back pain and disability were assessed by the Chronic Pain Grade Scale at the time of MRI. Intervertebral disc height and cross-sectional area and fat content of multifidus and erector spinae were assessed from MRI. Lower physical activity levels were associated with a more narrow average intervertebral disc height (β -0.63 mm, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.17 mm to -0.08 mm, P = 0.026) after adjusting for age, gender and body mass index (BMI). There were no significant associations between physical activity levels and the cross-sectional area of multifidus or erector spinae. Lower levels of physical activity were associated with an increased risk of high fat content in multifidus (odds ratio (OR) 2.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.7, P = 0.04) and high-intensity pain/disability (OR = 5.0, 95% CI 1.5 to 16.4, P = 0.008) after adjustment for age, gender and BMI. Physical inactivity is associated with narrower intervertebral discs, high fat content of the multifidus and high-intensity low back pain and disability in a dose-dependent manner among community-based adults. Longitudinal studies will help to determine the cause and effect nature of these associations.

  17. Narrow-headed garter snake (Thamnophis rufipunctatus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nowak, Erika M.

    2006-01-01

    The narrow-headed garter snake is a harmless, nonvenomous snake that is distinguished by its elongated, triangular-shaped head and the red or dark spots on its olive to tan body. Today, the narrow-headed garter snake is a species of special concern in the United States because of its decline over much of its historic range. Arizona's Oak Creek has historically contained the largest population of narrow-headed garter snakes in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Arizona Game and Fish Department jointly funded research by USGS scientists in Oak Creek to shed light on the factors causing declining population numbers. The research resulted in better understanding of the snake's habitat needs, winter and summer range, and dietary habits. Based on the research findings, the U.S. Forest Service has developed recommendations that visitors and local residents can adopt to help slow the decline of the narrow-headed garter snake in Oak Creek.

  18. Re-evaluation of link between interpregnancy interval and adverse birth outcomes: retrospective cohort study matching two intervals per mother

    PubMed Central

    Pereira, Gavin; Jacoby, Peter; de Klerk, Nicholas; Stanley, Fiona J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To re-evaluate the causal effect of interpregnancy interval on adverse birth outcomes, on the basis that previous studies relying on between mother comparisons may have inadequately adjusted for confounding by maternal risk factors. Design Retrospective cohort study using conditional logistic regression (matching two intervals per mother so each mother acts as her own control) to model the incidence of adverse birth outcomes as a function of interpregnancy interval; additional unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for confounders enabled comparison with the unmatched design of previous studies. Setting Perth, Western Australia, 1980-2010. Participants 40 441 mothers who each delivered three liveborn singleton neonates. Main outcome measures Preterm birth (<37 weeks), small for gestational age birth (<10th centile of birth weight by sex and gestational age), and low birth weight (<2500 g). Results Within mother analysis of interpregnancy intervals indicated a much weaker effect of short intervals on the odds of preterm birth and low birth weight compared with estimates generated using a traditional between mother analysis. The traditional unmatched design estimated an adjusted odds ratio for an interpregnancy interval of 0-5 months (relative to the reference category of 18-23 months) of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.31 to 1.51) for preterm birth, 1.26 (1.15 to 1.37) for low birth weight, and 0.98 (0.92 to 1.06) for small for gestational age birth. In comparison, the matched design showed a much weaker effect of short interpregnancy interval on preterm birth (odds ratio 1.07, 0.86 to 1.34) and low birth weight (1.03, 0.79 to 1.34), and the effect for small for gestational age birth remained small (1.08, 0.87 to 1.34). Both the unmatched and matched models estimated a high odds of small for gestational age birth and low birth weight for long interpregnancy intervals (longer than 59 months), but the estimated effect of long interpregnancy

  19. Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

  20. Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

    PubMed Central

    Natesan, Prathiba

    2015-01-01

    Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

  1. Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

    PubMed

    Natesan, Prathiba

    2015-01-01

    Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

  2. ESTABLISHMENT OF A FIBRINOGEN REFERENCE INTERVAL IN ORNATE BOX TURTLES (TERRAPENE ORNATA ORNATA).

    PubMed

    Parkinson, Lily; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Klaphake, Eric; Dadone, Liza; Johnston, Matthew

    2016-09-01

    This study sought to establish a reference interval for fibrinogen in healthy ornate box turtles ( Terrapene ornata ornata). A total of 48 turtles were enrolled, with 42 turtles deemed to be noninflammatory and thus fitting the inclusion criteria and utilized to estimate a fibrinogen reference interval. Turtles were excluded based upon physical examination and blood work abnormalities. A Shapiro-Wilk normality test indicated that the noninflammatory turtle fibrinogen values were normally distributed (Gaussian distribution) with an average of 108 mg/dl and a 95% confidence interval of the mean of 97.9-117 mg/dl. Those turtles excluded from the reference interval because of abnormalities affecting their health had significantly different fibrinogen values (P = 0.313). A reference interval for healthy ornate box turtles was calculated. Further investigation into the utility of fibrinogen measurement for clinical usage in ornate box turtles is warranted.

  3. Effects of High-Intensity Interval Training on Aerobic Capacity in Cardiac Patients: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Bin; Yan, Xianfeng

    2017-01-01

    Purpose. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of high-intensity interval training (INTERVAL) and moderate-intensity continuous training (CONTINUOUS) on aerobic capacity in cardiac patients. Methods. A meta-analysis identified by searching the PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases from inception through December 2016 compared the effects of INTERVAL and CONTINUOUS among cardiac patients. Results. Twenty-one studies involving 736 participants with cardiac diseases were included. Compared with CONTINUOUS, INTERVAL was associated with greater improvement in peak VO2 (mean difference 1.76 mL/kg/min, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.46 mL/kg/min, p < 0.001) and VO2 at AT (mean difference 0.90 mL/kg/min, 95% confidence interval 0.0 to 1.72 mL/kg/min, p = 0.03). No significant difference between the INTERVAL and CONTINUOUS groups was observed in terms of peak heart rate, peak minute ventilation, VE/VCO2 slope and respiratory exchange ratio, body mass, systolic or diastolic blood pressure, triglyceride or low- or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, flow-mediated dilation, or left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusions. This study showed that INTERVAL improves aerobic capacity more effectively than does CONTINUOUS in cardiac patients. Further studies with larger samples are needed to confirm our observations. PMID:28386556

  4. Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, G. J.; Walsh, J. E.

    1973-01-01

    Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

  5. Effect Sizes and their Intervals: The Two-Level Repeated Measures Case

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2005-01-01

    Probability coverage for eight different confidence intervals (CIs) of measures of effect size (ES) in a two-level repeated measures design was investigated. The CIs and measures of ES differed with regard to whether they used least squares or robust estimates of central tendency and variability, whether the end critical points of the interval…

  6. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    PubMed

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

    PubMed

    Matthews, David

    2013-10-12

    A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

  8. Raising Confident Kids

    MedlinePlus

    ... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

  9. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2015-01-01

    A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

  10. Narrow Networks on the Individual Marketplace in 2017.

    PubMed

    Polski, Daniel; Weiner, Janet; Zhang, Yuehan

    2017-09-01

    This Issue Brief describes the breadth of physician networks on the ACA marketplaces in 2017. We find that the overall rate of narrow networks is 21%, which is a decline since 2014 (31%) and 2016 (25%). Narrow networks are concentrated in plans sold on state-based marketplaces, at 42%, compared to 10% of plans on federally-facilitated marketplaces. Issuers that have traditionally offered Medicaid coverage have the highest prevalence of narrow network plans at 36%, with regional/local plans and provider-based plans close behind at 27% and 30%. We also find large differences in narrow networks by state and by plan type.

  11. Dynamic visual noise reduces confidence in short-term memory for visual information.

    PubMed

    Kemps, Eva; Andrade, Jackie

    2012-05-01

    Previous research has shown effects of the visual interference technique, dynamic visual noise (DVN), on visual imagery, but not on visual short-term memory, unless retention of precise visual detail is required. This study tested the prediction that DVN does also affect retention of gross visual information, specifically by reducing confidence. Participants performed a matrix pattern memory task with three retention interval interference conditions (DVN, static visual noise and no interference control) that varied from trial to trial. At recall, participants indicated whether or not they were sure of their responses. As in previous research, DVN did not impair recall accuracy or latency on the task, but it did reduce recall confidence relative to static visual noise and no interference. We conclude that DVN does distort visual representations in short-term memory, but standard coarse-grained recall measures are insensitive to these distortions.

  12. Interactive case-based learning improves resident knowledge and confidence in reproductive endocrinology and infertility.

    PubMed

    Goldman, Kara N; Tiegs, Ashley W; Uquillas, Kristen; Nachtigall, Margaret; Fino, M Elizabeth; Winkel, Abigail F; Lerner, Veronica

    2017-06-01

    Resident physicians' scores on the REI section of the CREOG exam are traditionally low, and nearly 40% of house staff nation-wide perceive their REI knowledge to be poor. We aimed to assess whether an interactive case-based group-learning curriculum would narrow the REI knowledge gap by improving understanding and retention of core REI concepts under the time constraints affecting residents. A three-hour case-based workshop was developed to address four primary CREOG objectives. A multiple-choice test was administered immediately before and after the intervention and 7 weeks post-workshop, to evaluate both knowledge and confidence. Following the intervention, residents self-reported increased confidence with counseling and treatment of PCOS, ovulation induction cycle monitoring, counseling and treatment of POI, and breaking bad news related to infertility (p < 0.05). The multiple-choice exam was re-administered 7 weeks post-intervention, and scores remained significantly improved compared to pre-workshop scores (p < 0.05). At that time, all residents either strongly agreed (91.7%) or agreed (8.3%) that the case-based interactive format was preferable to traditional lecture-based teaching. In conclusion, a nontraditional curriculum aimed at teaching core REI concepts to residents through interactive case-based learning can be successfully integrated into a residency curriculum, and significantly improves knowledge and confidence of critical concepts in REI.

  13. Five-Year Risk of Interval-Invasive Second Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Buist, Diana S. M.; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Lehman, Constance D.; Henderson, Louise M.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. Methods: We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. Conclusions: PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. PMID:25904721

  14. Collaborative derivation of reference intervals for major clinical laboratory tests in Japan.

    PubMed

    Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Yomamoto, Yoshikazu; Hotta, Taeko; Hosogaya, Shigemi; Miyachi, Hayato; Itoh, Yoshihisa; Ishibashi, Midori; Kang, Dongchon

    2016-05-01

    Three multicentre studies of reference intervals were conducted recently in Japan. The Committee on Common Reference Intervals of the Japan Society of Clinical Chemistry sought to establish common reference intervals for 40 laboratory tests which were measured in common in the three studies and regarded as well harmonized in Japan. The study protocols were comparable with recruitment mostly from hospital workers with body mass index ≤28 and no medications. Age and sex distributions were made equal to obtain a final data size of 6345 individuals. Between-subgroup differences were expressed as the SD ratio (between-subgroup SD divided by SD representing the reference interval). Between-study differences were all within acceptable levels, and thus the three datasets were merged. By adopting SD ratio ≥0.50 as a guide, sex-specific reference intervals were necessary for 12 assays. Age-specific reference intervals for females partitioned at age 45 were required for five analytes. The reference intervals derived by the parametric method resulted in appreciable narrowing of the ranges by applying the latent abnormal values exclusion method in 10 items which were closely associated with prevalent disorders among healthy individuals. Sex- and age-related profiles of reference values, derived from individuals with no abnormal results in major tests, showed peculiar patterns specific to each analyte. Common reference intervals for nationwide use were developed for 40 major tests, based on three multicentre studies by advanced statistical methods. Sex- and age-related profiles of reference values are of great relevance not only for interpreting test results, but for applying clinical decision limits specified in various clinical guidelines. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Elisabeth; Turrell, Gavin

    2009-10-01

    Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable

  16. Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

    PubMed

    Bjerner, J

    2007-01-01

    A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

  17. Change in Breast Cancer Screening Intervals Since the 2009 USPSTF Guideline.

    PubMed

    Wernli, Karen J; Arao, Robert F; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Sprague, Brian L; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer; Haas, Jennifer S; Henderson, Louise; Hill, Deidre; Lee, Christoph I; Tosteson, Anna N A; Onega, Tracy

    2017-08-01

    In 2009, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended biennial mammography for women aged 50-74 years and shared decision-making for women aged 40-49 years for breast cancer screening. We evaluated changes in mammography screening interval after the 2009 recommendations. We conducted a prospective cohort study of women aged 40-74 years who received 821,052 screening mammograms between 2006 and 2012 using data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We compared changes in screening intervals and stratified intervals based on whether the mammogram at the end of the interval occurred before or after the 2009 recommendation. Differences in mean interval length by woman-level characteristics were compared using linear regression. The mean interval (in months) minimally decreased after the 2009 USPSTF recommendations. Among women aged 40-49 years, the mean interval decreased from 17.2 months to 17.1 months (difference -0.16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.30 to -0.01). Similar small reductions were seen for most age groups. The largest change in interval length in the post-USPSTF period was declines among women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer (difference -0.68%, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.54) or a 5-year breast cancer risk ≥2.5% (difference -0.58%, 95% CI -0.73 to -0.44). The 2009 USPSTF recommendation did not lengthen the average mammography interval among women routinely participating in mammography screening. Future studies should evaluate whether breast cancer screening intervals lengthen toward biennial intervals following new national 2016 breast cancer screening recommendations, particularly among women less than 50 years of age.

  18. Ring resonator based narrow-linewidth semiconductor lasers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ksendzov, Alexander (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    The present invention is a method and apparatus for using ring resonators to produce narrow linewidth hybrid semiconductor lasers. According to one embodiment of the present invention, the narrow linewidths are produced by combining the semiconductor gain chip with a narrow pass band external feedback element. The semi conductor laser is produced using a ring resonator which, combined with a Bragg grating, acts as the external feedback element. According to another embodiment of the present invention, the proposed integrated optics ring resonator is based on plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) SiO.sub.2 /SiON/SiO.sub.2 waveguide technology.

  19. Fine-mapping and initial characterization of QT interval loci in African Americans.

    PubMed

    Avery, Christy L; Sethupathy, Praveen; Buyske, Steven; He, Qianchuan; Lin, Dan-Yu; Arking, Dan E; Carty, Cara L; Duggan, David; Fesinmeyer, Megan D; Hindorff, Lucia A; Jeff, Janina M; Klein, Liviu; Patton, Kristen K; Peters, Ulrike; Shohet, Ralph V; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Young, Alicia M; Kooperberg, Charles; Haiman, Christopher A; Mohlke, Karen L; Whitsel, Eric A; North, Kari E

    2012-01-01

    The QT interval (QT) is heritable and its prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular tachyarrhythmias and sudden death. Most genetic studies of QT have examined European ancestral populations; however, the increased genetic diversity in African Americans provides opportunities to narrow association signals and identify population-specific variants. We therefore evaluated 6,670 SNPs spanning eleven previously identified QT loci in 8,644 African American participants from two Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trial. Of the fifteen known independent QT variants at the eleven previously identified loci, six were significantly associated with QT in African American populations (P≤1.20×10(-4)): ATP1B1, PLN1, KCNQ1, NDRG4, and two NOS1AP independent signals. We also identified three population-specific signals significantly associated with QT in African Americans (P≤1.37×10(-5)): one at NOS1AP and two at ATP1B1. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in African Americans assisted in narrowing the region likely to contain the functional variants for several loci. For example, African American LD patterns showed that 0 SNPs were in LD with NOS1AP signal rs12143842, compared with European LD patterns that indicated 87 SNPs, which spanned 114.2 Kb, were in LD with rs12143842. Finally, bioinformatic-based characterization of the nine African American signals pointed to functional candidates located exclusively within non-coding regions, including predicted binding sites for transcription factors such as TBX5, which has been implicated in cardiac structure and conductance. In this detailed evaluation of QT loci, we identified several African Americans SNPs that better define the association with QT and successfully narrowed intervals surrounding established loci. These results demonstrate that the same loci influence variation in QT across multiple

  20. Fine-Mapping and Initial Characterization of QT Interval Loci in African Americans

    PubMed Central

    Avery, Christy L.; Sethupathy, Praveen; Buyske, Steven; He, Qianchuan; Lin, Dan-Yu; Arking, Dan E.; Carty, Cara L.; Duggan, David; Fesinmeyer, Megan D.; Hindorff, Lucia A.; Jeff, Janina M.; Klein, Liviu; Patton, Kristen K.; Peters, Ulrike; Shohet, Ralph V.; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Young, Alicia M.; Kooperberg, Charles; Haiman, Christopher A.; Mohlke, Karen L.; Whitsel, Eric A.; North, Kari E.

    2012-01-01

    The QT interval (QT) is heritable and its prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular tachyarrhythmias and sudden death. Most genetic studies of QT have examined European ancestral populations; however, the increased genetic diversity in African Americans provides opportunities to narrow association signals and identify population-specific variants. We therefore evaluated 6,670 SNPs spanning eleven previously identified QT loci in 8,644 African American participants from two Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trial. Of the fifteen known independent QT variants at the eleven previously identified loci, six were significantly associated with QT in African American populations (P≤1.20×10−4): ATP1B1, PLN1, KCNQ1, NDRG4, and two NOS1AP independent signals. We also identified three population-specific signals significantly associated with QT in African Americans (P≤1.37×10−5): one at NOS1AP and two at ATP1B1. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in African Americans assisted in narrowing the region likely to contain the functional variants for several loci. For example, African American LD patterns showed that 0 SNPs were in LD with NOS1AP signal rs12143842, compared with European LD patterns that indicated 87 SNPs, which spanned 114.2 Kb, were in LD with rs12143842. Finally, bioinformatic-based characterization of the nine African American signals pointed to functional candidates located exclusively within non-coding regions, including predicted binding sites for transcription factors such as TBX5, which has been implicated in cardiac structure and conductance. In this detailed evaluation of QT loci, we identified several African Americans SNPs that better define the association with QT and successfully narrowed intervals surrounding established loci. These results demonstrate that the same loci influence variation in QT across multiple

  1. Ocular Biometrics of Myopic Eyes With Narrow Angles.

    PubMed

    Chong, Gabriel T; Wen, Joanne C; Su, Daniel Hsien-Wen; Stinnett, Sandra; Asrani, Sanjay

    2016-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the ocular biometrics between myopic patients with and without narrow angles. Patients with a stable myopic refraction (myopia worse than -1.00 D spherical equivalent) were prospectively recruited. Angle status was assessed using gonioscopy and biometric measurements were performed using an anterior segment optical coherence tomography and an IOLMaster. A total of 29 patients (58 eyes) were enrolled with 13 patients (26 eyes) classified as having narrow angles and 16 patients (32 eyes) classified as having open angles. Baseline demographics of age, sex, and ethnicity did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. The patients with narrow angles were on average older than those with open angles but the difference did not reach statistical significance (P=0.12). The central anterior chamber depth was significantly less in the eyes with narrow angles (P=0.05). However, the average lens thickness, although greater in the eyes with narrow angles, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.10). Refractive error, axial lengths, and iris thicknesses did not differ significantly between the 2 groups (P=0.32, 0.47, 0.15). Narrow angles can occur in myopic eyes. Routine gonioscopy is therefore recommended for all patients regardless of refractive error.

  2. Intramyocardial arterial narrowing in dogs with subaortic stenosis.

    PubMed

    Falk, T; Jönsson, L; Pedersen, H D

    2004-09-01

    Earlier studies have described intramyocardial arterial narrowing based on hyperplasia and hypertrophy of the vessel wall in dogs with subaortic stenosis (SAS). In theory, such changes might increase the risk of sudden death, as they seem to do in heart disease in other species. This retrospective pathological study describes and quantifies intramyocardial arterial narrowing in 44 dogs with naturally occurring SAS and in eight control dogs. The majority of the dogs with SAS died suddenly (n=27); nine had died or been euthanased with signs of heart failure and eight were euthanased without clinical signs. Dogs with SAS had significantly narrower intramyocardial arteries (P<0.001) and more myocardial fibrosis (P<0.001) than control dogs. Male dogs and those with more severe hypertrophy had more vessel narrowing (P=0.02 and P=0.02, respectively), whereas dogs with dilated hearts had slightly less pronounced arterial thickening (P=0.01). Arterial narrowing was not related to age, but fibrosis increased with age (P=0.047). Dogs that died suddenly did not have a greater number of arterial changes than other dogs with SAS. This study suggests that most dogs with SAS have intramyocardial arterial narrowing and that the risk of dying suddenly is not significantly related to the overall degree of vessel obliteration.

  3. A comparison of confidence/credible interval methods for the area under the ROC curve for continuous diagnostic tests with small sample size.

    PubMed

    Feng, Dai; Cortese, Giuliana; Baumgartner, Richard

    2017-12-01

    The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.

  4. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence

    PubMed Central

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-01-01

    Confidence is the ‘feeling of knowing’ that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence. PMID:29152591

  5. Diagnostic Performance of Narrow Band Imaging for Laryngeal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Sun, Changling; Han, Xue; Li, Xiaoying; Zhang, Yayun; Du, Xiaodong

    2017-04-01

    Objective To evaluate the performance of narrow band imaging (NBI) for the diagnosis of laryngeal cancer and to compare the diagnostic value of NBI with that of white light endoscopy. Data Sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CNKI databases. Review Methods Data analyses were performed with Meta-DiSc. The updated Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool was used to assess study quality and potential bias. Publication bias was assessed with the Deeks's asymmetry test. The protocol used in this article has been published on PROSPERO and is in accordance with the PRISMA checklist. The registry number for this study is CRD42015025866. Results Six studies including 716 lesions were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio for the NBI diagnosis of laryngeal cancer were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.91-0.96), 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.92), and 142.12 (95% CI: 46.42-435.15), respectively, and the area under receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.97. Among the 6 studies, 3 evaluated the diagnostic value of white light endoscopy, with a sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86), a specificity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95), and a diagnostic odds ratio of 33.82 (95% CI: 14.76-77.49). The evaluation of heterogeneity, calculated per the diagnostic odds ratio, gave an I 2 of 66%. No marked publication bias ( P = .84) was detected in this meta-analysis. Conclusion The sensitivity of NBI is superior to white light endoscopy, and the potential value of NBI needs to be validated in future studies.

  6. Search for narrow resonances decaying to dijets in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

    DOE PAGES

    Khachatryan, Vardan

    2016-02-18

    In this study, a search for narrow resonances in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV is presented. The invariant mass distribution of the two leading jets is measured with the CMS detector using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.4 fb –1. The highest observed dijet mass is 6.1 TeV. The distribution is smooth and no evidence for resonant particles is observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the production cross section for narrow resonances with masses above 1.5 TeV. When interpreted in the context of specific models, the limits exclude string resonances with masses belowmore » 7.0 TeV, scalar diquarks below 6.0 TeV, axigluons and colorons below 5.1 TeV, excited quarks below 5.0 TeV, color-octet scalars below 3.1 TeV, and W' bosons below 2.6 TeV. These results significantly extend previously published limits.« less

  7. Narrow-linewidth Q-switched random distributed feedback fiber laser.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jiangming; Ye, Jun; Xiao, Hu; Leng, Jinyong; Wu, Jian; Zhang, Hanwei; Zhou, Pu

    2016-08-22

    A narrow-linewidth Q-switched random fiber laser (RFL) based on a half-opened cavity, which is realized by narrow-linewidth fiber Bragg grating (FBG) and a section of 3 km passive fiber, has been proposed and experimentally investigated. The narrow-linewidth lasing is generated by the spectral filtering of three FBGs with linewidth of 1.21 nm, 0.56 nm, and 0.12 nm, respectively. The Q switching of the distributed cavity is achieved by placing an acousto-optical modulator (AOM) between the FBG and the passive fiber. The maximal output powers of the narrow-linewidth RFLs with the three different FBGs are 0.54 W, 0.27 W, and 0.08 W, respectively. Furthermore, the repetition rates of the output pulses are 500 kHz, and the pulse durations are about 500 ns. The corresponding pulse energies are about 1.08 μJ, 0.54 μJ, and 0.16 μJ, accordingly. The linewidth of FBG can influence the output characteristics in full scale. The narrower the FBG, the higher the pump threshold; the lower the output power at the same pump level, the more serious the linewidth broadening; and thus the higher the proportion of the CW-ground exists in the output pulse trains. Thanks to the assistance of the band-pass filter (BPF), the proportion of the CW-ground of narrow-linewidth Q-switched RFL under the relative high-pump-low-output condition can be reduced effectively. The experimental results indicate that it is challenging to demonstrate a narrow-linewidth Q-switched RFL with high quality output. But further power scaling and linewidth narrowing is possible in the case of operating parameters, optimization efforts, and a more powerful pump source. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of narrow-linewidth generation in a Q-switched RFL.

  8. Discovery of a narrow line quasar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stocke, J.; Liebert, J.; Maccacaro, T.; Griffiths, R. E.; Steiner, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    A stellar object is reported which, while having X-ray and optical luminosities typical of quasars, has narrow permitted and forbidden emission lines over the observed spectral range. The narrow-line spectrum is high-excitation, the Balmer lines seem to be recombinational, and a redder optical spectrum than that of most quasars is exhibited, despite detection as a weak radio source. The object does not conform to the relationships between H-beta parameters and X-ray flux previously claimed for a large sample of the active galactic nuclei. Because reddish quasars with narrow lines, such as the object identified, may not be found by the standard techniques for the discovery of quasars, the object may be a prototype of a new class of quasars analogous to high-luminosity Seyfert type 2 galaxies. It is suggested that these objects cannot comprise more than 10% of all quasars.

  9. Infants Experience Perceptual Narrowing for Nonprimate Faces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Elizabeth A.; Varga, Krisztina; Frick, Janet E.; Fragaszy, Dorothy

    2011-01-01

    Perceptual narrowing--a phenomenon in which perception is broad from birth, but narrows as a function of experience--has previously been tested with primate faces. In the first 6 months of life, infants can discriminate among individual human and monkey faces. Though the ability to discriminate monkey faces is lost after about 9 months, infants…

  10. The Use of One-Sample Prediction Intervals for Estimating CO2 Scrubber Canister Durations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-01

    Grade and 812 D-Grade Sofnolime.3 Definitions According to Devore,4 A CI (confidence interval) refers to a parameter, or population ... characteristic , whose value is fixed but unknown to us. In contrast, a future value of Y is not a parameter but instead a random variable; for this

  11. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    PubMed

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  12. Five-year risk of interval-invasive second breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Lee, Janie M; Buist, Diana S M; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C; Halpern, Elkan F; Gazelle, G Scott; Lehman, Constance D; Henderson, Louise M; Hubbard, Rebecca A

    2015-07-01

    Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

  13. Using a Nonparametric Bootstrap to Obtain a Confidence Interval for Pearson's "r" with Cluster Randomized Data: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagstaff, David A.; Elek, Elvira; Kulis, Stephen; Marsiglia, Flavio

    2009-01-01

    A nonparametric bootstrap was used to obtain an interval estimate of Pearson's "r," and test the null hypothesis that there was no association between 5th grade students' positive substance use expectancies and their intentions to not use substances. The students were participating in a substance use prevention program in which the unit of…

  14. Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions with Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paek, Insu

    2016-01-01

    The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test…

  15. Neurophysiology of perceived confidence.

    PubMed

    Graziano, Martin; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

    2010-01-01

    In a partial report paradigm, subjects observe during a brief presentation a cluttered field and after some time - typically ranging from 100 ms to a second - are asked to report a subset of the presented elements. A vast buffer of information is transiently available to be broadcasted which, if not retrieved in time, fades rapidly without reaching consciousness. An interesting feature of this experiment is that objective performance and subjective confidence is decoupled. This converts this paradigm in an ideal vehicle to understand the brain dynamics of the construction of confidence. Here we report a high-density EEG experiment in which we infer elements of the EEG response which are indicative of subjective confidence. We find that an early response during encoding partially correlates with perceived confidence. However, the bulk of the weight of subjective confidence is determined during a late, N400-like waveform, during the retrieval stage. This shows that we can find markers of access to internal, subjective states, that are uncoupled from objective response and stimulus properties of the task, and we propose that this can be used with decoding methods of EEG to infer subjective mental states.

  16. Confidence in Altman-Bland plots: a critical review of the method of differences.

    PubMed

    Ludbrook, John

    2010-02-01

    1. Altman and Bland argue that the virtue of plotting differences against averages in method-comparison studies is that 95% confidence limits for the differences can be constructed. These allow authors and readers to judge whether one method of measurement could be substituted for another. 2. The technique is often misused. So I have set out, by statistical argument and worked examples, to advise pharmacologists and physiologists how best to construct these limits. 3. First, construct a scattergram of differences on averages, then calculate the line of best fit for the linear regression of differences on averages. If the slope of the regression is shown to differ from zero, there is proportional bias. 4. If there is no proportional bias and if the scatter of differences is uniform (homoscedasticity), construct 'classical' 95% confidence limits. 5. If there is proportional bias yet homoscedasticity, construct hyperbolic 95% confidence limits (prediction interval) around the line of best fit. 6. If there is proportional bias and the scatter of values for differences increases progressively as the average values increase (heteroscedasticity), log-transform the raw values from the two methods and replot differences against averages. If this eliminates proportional bias and heteroscedasticity, construct 'classical' 95% confidence limits. Otherwise, construct horizontal V-shaped 95% confidence limits around the line of best fit of differences on averages or around the weighted least products line of best fit to the original data. 7. In designing a method-comparison study, consult a qualified biostatistician, obey the rules of randomization and make replicate observations.

  17. Hematology and biochemistry reference intervals for Ontario commercial nursing pigs close to the time of weaning

    PubMed Central

    Perri, Amanda M.; O’Sullivan, Terri L.; Harding, John C.S.; Wood, R. Darren; Friendship, Robert M.

    2017-01-01

    The evaluation of pig hematology and biochemistry parameters is rarely done largely due to the costs associated with laboratory testing and labor, and the limited availability of reference intervals needed for interpretation. Within-herd and between-herd biological variation of these values also make it difficult to establish reference intervals. Regardless, baseline reference intervals are important to aid veterinarians in the interpretation of blood parameters for the diagnosis and treatment of diseased swine. The objective of this research was to provide reference intervals for hematology and biochemistry parameters of 3-week-old commercial nursing piglets in Ontario. A total of 1032 pigs lacking clinical signs of disease from 20 swine farms were sampled for hematology and iron panel evaluation, with biochemistry analysis performed on a subset of 189 randomly selected pigs. The 95% reference interval, mean, median, range, and 90% confidence intervals were calculated for each parameter. PMID:28373729

  18. Exploring separable components of institutional confidence.

    PubMed

    Hamm, Joseph A; PytlikZillig, Lisa M; Tomkins, Alan J; Herian, Mitchel N; Bornstein, Brian H; Neeley, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Despite its contemporary and theoretical importance in numerous social scientific disciplines, institutional confidence research is limited by a lack of consensus regarding the distinctions and relationships among related constructs (e.g., trust, confidence, legitimacy, distrust, etc.). This study examined four confidence-related constructs that have been used in studies of trust/confidence in the courts: dispositional trust, trust in institutions, obligation to obey the law, and cynicism. First, the separability of the four constructs was examined by exploratory factor analyses. Relationships among the constructs were also assessed. Next, multiple regression analyses were used to explore each construct's independent contribution to confidence in the courts. Finally, a second study replicated the first study and also examined the stability of the institutional confidence constructs over time. Results supported the hypothesized separability of, and correlations among, the four confidence-related constructs. The extent to which the constructs independently explained the observed variance in confidence in the courts differed as a function of the specific operationalization of confidence in the courts and the individual predictor measures. Implications for measuring institutional confidence and future research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    PubMed

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  20. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    PubMed Central

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  1. Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leighly, Karen M.

    2000-01-01

    The primary work during this year has been the analysis and interpretation of our HST spectra from two extreme Narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1s) Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) 13224-3809 and 1H 0707-495. This work has been presented as an invited talk at the workshop entitled "Observational and theoretical progress in the Study of Narrow-line Seyfert 1 Galaxies" held in Bad Honnef, Germany December 8-11, as a contributed talk at the January 2000 AAS meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, and as a contributed talk at the workshop "Probing the Physics of Active Galactic Nuclei by Multiwavelength Monitoring" held at Goddard Space Flight Center June 20-22, 2000.

  2. Technical Report: Algorithm and Implementation for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McLoughlin, Kevin

    2016-01-11

    This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive featuremore » of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.« less

  3. Effects of cooling interval and MnO2, TiO2, CdO, NiO additions on spheluritic willemite crystals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coşkun, Nihal Derin; Uz, Veli; Issi, Ali; Genç, Soner; Çakı, Münevver

    2017-01-01

    Macro crystal production in crystal glaze systems is a very important topic in ceramic art and science. In this study, crystal growth was obtained in two different firing regimes. Recipes were prepared by adding MnO, TiO, NiO and CdO into the frit. The first firing regime, which is used in artistic ceramics, has a 100 °C cooling temperature interval. The second regime that has a 580 °C cooling temperature interval, was determined by DTA analysis. Then, the development of crystals was compared between these two firing regimes. According to the results, spheluritic willemite crystals up to three cm in the glazes doped MnO2 have been obtained by cooling it in a wide cooling interval. Larger willemite crystals were not formed in the narrow cooling temperature interval. It was determined that larger crystals can be produced by cooling at wide cooling temperature intervals and holding at lower temperature which involves nucleating the temperature of the crystal.

  4. Parent's confidence as a caregiver.

    PubMed

    Raines, Deborah A; Brustad, Judith

    2012-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe the parent's self-reported confidence as a caregiver. The specific research questions were as follows: • What is the parent's perceived level of confidence when performing infant caregiving activities in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU)? • What is the parent's projected level of confidence about performing infant caregiving activities on the first day at home? Participants were parents of infants with an anticipated discharge date within 5 days. Inclusion criteria were as follows: parent at least 18 years of age, infant's discharge destination is home with the parent, parent will have primary responsibility for the infant after discharge, and the infant's length of stay in the NICU was a minimum of 10 days. Descriptive, survey research. Participants perceived themselves to be confident in all but 2 caregiving activities when caring for their infants in the NICU, but parents projected a change in their level of confidence in their ability to independently complete infant care activities at home. When comparing the self-reported level of confidence in the NICU and the projected level of confidence at home, the levels of confidence decreased for 5 items, increased for 8 items, and remained unchanged for 2 items. All of the items with a decrease in score were the items with the lowest score when performed in the NICU. All of these low-scoring items are caregiving activities that are unique to the post-NICU status of the infant. Interestingly, the parent's projected level of confidence increased for the 8 items focused on handling and interacting with the infant. The findings of this research provide evidence that nurses may need to rethink when parents become active participants in their infant's medical-based caregiving activities.

  5. 2. Photocopied July 1971 from photostat Jordan Narrows Folder #1, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. Photocopied July 1971 from photostat Jordan Narrows Folder #1, Engineering Department, Utah Power and Light Co., Salt Lake City, Utah. JORDAN NARROWS STATION. PLAN AND SECTION. - Salt Lake City Water & Electrical Power Company, Jordan Narrows Hydroelectric Plant, Jordan River, Riverton, Salt Lake County, UT

  6. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  7. Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

    PubMed Central

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

    2006-01-01

    Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

  8. Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants

    PubMed Central

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo

    2017-01-01

    Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework

  9. An enhanced narrow-band imaging method for the microvessel detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Feng; Song, Enmin; Liu, Hong; Wan, Youming; Zhu, Jun; Hung, Chih-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    A medical endoscope system combined with the narrow-band imaging (NBI), has been shown to be a superior diagnostic tool for early cancer detection. The NBI can reveal the morphologic changes of microvessels in the superficial cancer. In order to improve the conspicuousness of microvessel texture, we propose an enhanced NBI method to improve the conspicuousness of endoscopic images. To obtain the more conspicuous narrow-band images, we use the edge operator to extract the edge information of the narrow-band blue and green images, and give a weight to the extracted edges. Then, the weighted edges are fused with the narrow-band blue and green images. Finally, the displayed endoscopic images are reconstructed with the enhanced narrow-band images. In addition, we evaluate the performance of enhanced narrow-band images with different edge operators. Experimental results indicate that the Sobel and Canny operators achieve the best performance of all. Compared with traditional NBI method of Olympus company, our proposed method has more conspicuous texture of microvessel.

  10. Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1999-01-01

    The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

  11. Acquisition and visualization techniques for narrow spectral color imaging.

    PubMed

    Neumann, László; García, Rafael; Basa, János; Hegedüs, Ramón

    2013-06-01

    This paper introduces a new approach in narrow-band imaging (NBI). Existing NBI techniques generate images by selecting discrete bands over the full visible spectrum or an even wider spectral range. In contrast, here we perform the sampling with filters covering a tight spectral window. This image acquisition method, named narrow spectral imaging, can be particularly useful when optical information is only available within a narrow spectral window, such as in the case of deep-water transmittance, which constitutes the principal motivation of this work. In this study we demonstrate the potential of the proposed photographic technique on nonunderwater scenes recorded under controlled conditions. To this end three multilayer narrow bandpass filters were employed, which transmit at 440, 456, and 470 nm bluish wavelengths, respectively. Since the differences among the images captured in such a narrow spectral window can be extremely small, both image acquisition and visualization require a novel approach. First, high-bit-depth images were acquired with multilayer narrow-band filters either placed in front of the illumination or mounted on the camera lens. Second, a color-mapping method is proposed, using which the input data can be transformed onto the entire display color gamut with a continuous and perceptually nearly uniform mapping, while ensuring optimally high information content for human perception.

  12. The QT Interval and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Mandyam, Mala C.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Alonso, Alvaro; Dewland, Thomas A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Cummings, Steven R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Chaitman, Bernard R.; Stocke, Karen; Applegate, William B.; Arking, Dan E.; Butler, Javed; Loehr, Laura R.; Magnani, Jared W.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Newman, Anne B.; Marcus, Gregory M.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF. METHODS We examined a prolonged QT corrected by the Framingham formula (QTFram) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by other formulae. RESULTS Among 14,538 ARIC participants, a prolonged QTFram predicted a roughly two-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42–2.96, p<0.001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in CHS and Health ABC and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in ARIC, each 10-ms increase in QTFram was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.10–1.17, p<0.001) and adjusted (HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.07–1.14, p<0.001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT were inconsistent across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF. PMID:23872693

  13. Associations between narrow angle and adult anthropometry: the Liwan Eye Study.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Yuzhen; He, Mingguang; Friedman, David S; Khawaja, Anthony P; Lee, Pak Sang; Nolan, Winifred P; Yin, Qiuxia; Foster, Paul J

    2014-06-01

    To assess the associations between narrow angle and adult anthropometry. Chinese adults aged 50 years and older were recruited from a population-based survey in the Liwan District of Guangzhou, China. Narrow angle was defined as the posterior trabecular meshwork not visible under static gonioscopy in at least three quadrants (i.e. a circumference of at least 270°). Logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between narrow angle and anthropomorphic measures (height, weight and body mass index, BMI). Among the 912 participants, lower weight, shorter height, and lower BMI were significantly associated with narrower angle width (tests for trend: mean angle width in degrees vs weight p < 0.001; vs height p < 0.001; vs BMI p = 0.012). In univariate analyses, shorter height, lower weight and lower BMI were all significantly associated with greater odds of narrow angle. The crude association between height and narrow angle was largely attributable to a stronger association with age and sex. Lower BMI and weight remained significantly associated with narrow angle after adjustment for height, age, sex, axial ocular biometric measures and education. In analyses stratified by sex, the association between BMI and narrow angle was only observed in women. Lower BMI and weight were associated with significantly greater odds of narrow angle after adjusting for age, education, axial ocular biometric measures and height. The odds of narrow angle increased 7% per 1 unit decrease in BMI. This association was most evident in women.

  14. The impact of communication barriers on diagnostic confidence and ancillary testing in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Garra, Gregory; Albino, Hiram; Chapman, Heather; Singer, Adam J; Thode, Henry C

    2010-06-01

    Communication barriers (CBs) compromise the diagnostic power of the medical interview and may result in increased reliance on diagnostic tests or incorrect test ordering. The prevalence and degree to which these barriers affect diagnosis, testing, and treatment are unknown. To quantify and characterize CBs encountered in the Emergency Department (ED), and assess the effect of CBs on initial diagnosis and perceived reliance on ancillary testing. This was a prospective survey completed by emergency physicians after initial adult patient encounters. CB severity, diagnostic confidence, and reliance on ancillary testing were quantified on a 100-mm Visual Analog Scale (VAS) from least (0) to most (100). Data were collected on 417 ED patient encounters. CBs were reported in 46%; with a mean severity of 50 mm on a 100-mm VAS with endpoints of "perfect communication and "no communication." Language was the most commonly reported form of CB (28%). More than one CB was identified in 6%. The 100-mm VAS rating of diagnostic confidence was lower in patients with perceived CBs (64 mm) vs. those without CBs (80 mm), p < 0.001. VAS ratings of physician reliance on ancillary testing was higher in patients with perceived CBs (50 mm) vs. patients without a perceived CB (38 mm), p < 0.001. Communication barriers in our ED setting were common, and resulted in lower diagnostic confidence and increased perception that ancillary tests are needed to narrow the diagnosis. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Hot Wax Sweeps Debris From Narrow Passages

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ricklefs, Steven K.

    1990-01-01

    Safe and effective technique for removal of debris and contaminants from narrow passages involves entrainment of undesired material in thermoplastic casting material. Semisolid wax slightly below melting temperature pushed along passage by pressurized nitrogen to remove debris. Devised to clean out fuel passages in main combustion chamber of Space Shuttle main engine. Also applied to narrow, intricate passages in internal-combustion-engine blocks, carburetors, injection molds, and other complicated parts.

  16. The Relationship between Confidence and Self-Concept--Towards a Model of Response Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Stephan; Biermann, Antje

    2007-01-01

    According to Stankov [Stankov, L. (2000). Complexity, metacognition and fluid intelligence. Intelligence, 28, 121-143.] response confidence in cognitive tests reflects a trait on the boundary of personality and abilities. However, several studies failed in relating confidence scores to other known traits, including self-concept. A model of…

  17. Investigating the Genetic Architecture of the PR Interval Using Clinical Phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Mosley, Jonathan D; Shoemaker, M Benjamin; Wells, Quinn S; Darbar, Dawood; Shaffer, Christian M; Edwards, Todd L; Bastarache, Lisa; McCarty, Catherine A; Thompson, Will; Chute, Christopher G; Jarvik, Gail P; Crosslin, David R; Larson, Eric B; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Peissig, Peggy L; Brilliant, Murray H; Linneman, James G; Witte, John S; Denny, Josh C; Roden, Dan M

    2017-04-01

    One potential use for the PR interval is as a biomarker of disease risk. We hypothesized that quantifying the shared genetic architectures of the PR interval and a set of clinical phenotypes would identify genetic mechanisms contributing to PR variability and identify diseases associated with a genetic predictor of PR variability. We used ECG measurements from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; n=6731 subjects) and 63 genetically modulated diseases from the eMERGE network (Electronic Medical Records and Genomics; n=12 978). We measured pairwise genetic correlations (rG) between PR phenotypes (PR interval, PR segment, P-wave duration) and each of the 63 phenotypes. The PR segment was genetically correlated with atrial fibrillation (rG=-0.88; P =0.0009). An analysis of metabolic phenotypes in ARIC also showed that the P wave was genetically correlated with waist circumference (rG=0.47; P =0.02). A genetically predicted PR interval phenotype based on 645 714 single-nucleotide polymorphisms was associated with atrial fibrillation (odds ratio=0.89 per SD change; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.95; P =0.0006). The differing pattern of associations among the PR phenotypes is consistent with analyses that show that the genetic correlation between the P wave and PR segment was not significantly different from 0 (rG=-0.03 [0.16]). The genetic architecture of the PR interval comprises modulators of atrial fibrillation risk and obesity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Fracture strength and probability of survival of narrow and extra-narrow dental implants after fatigue testing: In vitro and in silico analysis.

    PubMed

    Bordin, Dimorvan; Bergamo, Edmara T P; Fardin, Vinicius P; Coelho, Paulo G; Bonfante, Estevam A

    2017-07-01

    To assess the probability of survival (reliability) and failure modes of narrow implants with different diameters. For fatigue testing, 42 implants with the same macrogeometry and internal conical connection were divided, according to diameter, as follows: narrow (Ø3.3×10mm) and extra-narrow (Ø2.9×10mm) (21 per group). Identical abutments were torqued to the implants and standardized maxillary incisor crowns were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT) in water. The use-level probability Weibull curves, and reliability for a mission of 50,000 and 100,000 cycles at 50N, 100, 150 and 180N were calculated. For the finite element analysis (FEA), two virtual models, simulating the samples tested in fatigue, were constructed. Loading at 50N and 100N were applied 30° off-axis at the crown. The von-Mises stress was calculated for implant and abutment. The beta (β) values were: 0.67 for narrow and 1.32 for extra-narrow implants, indicating that failure rates did not increase with fatigue in the former, but more likely were associated with damage accumulation and wear-out failures in the latter. Both groups showed high reliability (up to 97.5%) at 50 and 100N. A decreased reliability was observed for both groups at 150 and 180N (ranging from 0 to 82.3%), but no significant difference was observed between groups. Failure predominantly involved abutment fracture for both groups. FEA at 50N-load, Ø3.3mm showed higher von-Mises stress for abutment (7.75%) and implant (2%) when compared to the Ø2.9mm. There was no significant difference between narrow and extra-narrow implants regarding probability of survival. The failure mode was similar for both groups, restricted to abutment fracture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Associations between Narrow Angle and Adult Anthropometry: The Liwan Eye Study

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Yuzhen; He, Mingguang; Friedman, David S.; Khawaja, Anthony P.; Lee, Pak Sang; Nolan, Winifred P.; Yin, Qiuxia; Foster, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To assess the associations between narrow angle and adult anthropometry. Methods Chinese adults aged 50 years and older were recruited from a population-based survey in the Liwan District of Guangzhou, China. Narrow angle was defined as the posterior trabecular meshwork not visible under static gonioscopy in at least three quadrants (i.e. a circumference of at least 270°). Logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between narrow angle and anthropomorphic measures (height, weight and body mass index, BMI). Results Among the 912 participants, lower weight, shorter height, and lower BMI were significantly associated with narrower angle width (tests for trend: mean angle width in degrees vs weight p<0.001; vs height p<0.001; vs BMI p = 0.012). In univariate analyses, shorter height, lower weight and lower BMI were all significantly associated with greater odds of narrow angle. The crude association between height and narrow angle was largely attributable to a stronger association with age and sex. Lower BMI and weight remained significantly associated with narrow angle after adjustment for height, age, sex, axial ocular biometric measures and education. In analyses stratified by sex, the association between BMI and narrow angle was only observed in women. Conclusion Lower BMI and weight were associated with significantly greater odds of narrow angle after adjusting for age, education, axial ocular biometric measures and height. The odds of narrow angle increased 7% per 1 unit decrease in BMI. This association was most evident in women. PMID:24707840

  20. Self-reported confidence in recall as a predictor of validity and repeatability of physical activity questionnaire data.

    PubMed

    Cust, Anne E; Armstrong, Bruce K; Smith, Ben J; Chau, Josephine; van der Ploeg, Hidde P; Bauman, Adrian

    2009-05-01

    Self-reported confidence ratings have been used in other research disciplines as a tool to assess data quality, and may be useful in epidemiologic studies. We examined whether self-reported confidence in recall of physical activity was a predictor of the validity and retest reliability of physical activity measures from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) past-year questionnaire and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) last-7-day questionnaire.During 2005-2006 in Sydney, Australia, 97 men and 80 women completed both questionnaires at baseline and at 10 months and wore an accelerometer as an objective comparison measure for three 7-day periods during the same timeframe. Participants rated their confidence in recalling physical activity for each question using a 5-point scale and were dichotomized at the median confidence value. Participants in the high-confidence group had higher validity and repeatability coefficients than those in the low-confidence group for most comparisons. The differences were most apparent for validity of IPAQ moderate activity: Spearman correlation rho = 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.08 to 0.55) and 0.01 (-0.17 to 0.20) for high- and low-confidence groups, respectively; and repeatability of EPIC household activity: rho = 0.81 (0.72 to 0.87) and 0.63 (0.48 to 0.74), respectively, and IPAQ vigorous activity: rho = 0.58 (0.43 to 0.70) and 0.29 (0.07 to 0.49), respectively. Women were less likely than men to report high recall confidence of past-year activity (adjusted odds ratio = 0.38; 0.18 to 0.80). Confidence ratings could be useful as indicators of recall accuracy (ie, validity and repeatability) of physical activity measures, and possibly for detecting differential measurement error and identifying questionnaire items that require improvement.

  1. Time interval measurement device based on surface acoustic wave filter excitation, providing 1 ps precision and stability.

    PubMed

    Panek, Petr; Prochazka, Ivan

    2007-09-01

    This article deals with the time interval measurement device, which is based on a surface acoustic wave (SAW) filter as a time interpolator. The operating principle is based on the fact that a transversal SAW filter excited by a short pulse can generate a finite signal with highly suppressed spectra outside a narrow frequency band. If the responses to two excitations are sampled at clock ticks, they can be precisely reconstructed from a finite number of samples and then compared so as to determine the time interval between the two excitations. We have designed and constructed a two-channel time interval measurement device which allows independent timing of two events and evaluation of the time interval between them. The device has been constructed using commercially available components. The experimental results proved the concept. We have assessed the single-shot time interval measurement precision of 1.3 ps rms that corresponds to the time of arrival precision of 0.9 ps rms in each channel. The temperature drift of the measured time interval on temperature is lower than 0.5 ps/K, and the long term stability is better than +/-0.2 ps/h. These are to our knowledge the best values reported for the time interval measurement device. The results are in good agreement with the error budget based on the theoretical analysis.

  2. The range of confidence scales does not affect the relationship between confidence and accuracy in recognition memory.

    PubMed

    Tekin, Eylul; Roediger, Henry L

    2017-01-01

    Researchers use a wide range of confidence scales when measuring the relationship between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory, with the highest number usually representing the greatest confidence (e.g., 4-point, 20-point, and 100-point scales). The assumption seems to be that the range of the scale has little bearing on the confidence-accuracy relationship. In two old/new recognition experiments, we directly investigated this assumption using word lists (Experiment 1) and faces (Experiment 2) by employing 4-, 5-, 20-, and 100-point scales. Using confidence-accuracy characteristic (CAC) plots, we asked whether confidence ratings would yield similar CAC plots, indicating comparability in use of the scales. For the comparisons, we divided 100-point and 20-point scales into bins of either four or five and asked, for example, whether confidence ratings of 4, 16-20, and 76-100 would yield similar values. The results show that, for both types of material, the different scales yield similar CAC plots. Notably, when subjects express high confidence, regardless of which scale they use, they are likely to be very accurate (even though they studied 100 words and 50 faces in each list in 2 experiments). The scales seem convertible from one to the other, and choice of scale range probably does not affect research into the relationship between confidence and accuracy. High confidence indicates high accuracy in recognition in the present experiments.

  3. Ultra-thin narrow-band, complementary narrow-band, and dual-band metamaterial absorbers for applications in the THz regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Astorino, Maria Denise; Frezza, Fabrizio; Tedeschi, Nicola

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, ultra-thin narrow-band, complementary narrow-band, and dual-band metamaterial absorbers (MMAs), exploiting the same electric ring resonator configuration, are investigated at normal and oblique incidence for both transverse electric (TE) and transverse magnetic (TM) polarizations, and with different physical properties in the THz regime. In the analysis of the ultra-thin narrow-band MMA, the limit of applicability of the transmission line model has been overcome with the introduction of a capacitance which considers the z component of the electric field. These absorbing structures have shown a wide angular response and a polarization-insensitive behavior due to the introduction of a conducting ground plane and to the four-fold rotational symmetry of the resonant elements around the propagation axis. We have adopted a retrieval procedure to extract the effective electromagnetic parameters of the proposed MMAs and we have compared the simulated and analytical results through the interference theory.

  4. Narrow-band generation in random distributed feedback fiber laser.

    PubMed

    Sugavanam, Srikanth; Tarasov, Nikita; Shu, Xuewen; Churkin, Dmitry V

    2013-07-15

    Narrow-band emission of spectral width down to ~0.05 nm line-width is achieved in the random distributed feedback fiber laser employing narrow-band fiber Bragg grating or fiber Fabry-Perot interferometer filters. The observed line-width is ~10 times less than line-width of other demonstrated up to date random distributed feedback fiber lasers. The random DFB laser with Fabry-Perot interferometer filter provides simultaneously multi-wavelength and narrow-band (within each line) generation with possibility of further wavelength tuning.

  5. Search for Narrow Resonances Decaying to Dijets in Proton-Proton Collisions at √[s]=13  TeV.

    PubMed

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Meister, D; Micheli, F; Musella, P; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Pandolfi, F; Pata, J; Pauss, F; Perrozzi, L; Quittnat, M; Rossini, M; Schönenberger, M; Starodumov, A; Takahashi, M; Tavolaro, V R; Theofilatos, K; Wallny, R; Aarrestad, T K; Amsler, C; Caminada, L; Canelli, M F; Chiochia, V; De Cosa, A; Galloni, C; Hinzmann, A; Hreus, T; Kilminster, B; Lange, C; Ngadiuba, J; Pinna, D; Rauco, G; Robmann, P; Ronga, F J; Salerno, D; Yang, Y; Cardaci, M; Chen, K H; Doan, T H; Jain, Sh; Khurana, R; Konyushikhin, M; Kuo, C M; Lin, W; Lu, Y J; Pozdnyakov, A; Yu, S S; Kumar, Arun; Chang, P; Chang, Y H; Chang, Y W; Chao, Y; Chen, K F; Chen, P H; Dietz, C; Fiori, F; Grundler, U; Hou, W-S; Hsiung, Y; Liu, Y F; Lu, R-S; Miñano Moya, M; Petrakou, E; Tsai, J F; Tzeng, Y M; Asavapibhop, B; Kovitanggoon, K; Singh, G; Srimanobhas, N; Suwonjandee, N; Adiguzel, A; Bakirci, M N; Bat, A; Demiroglu, Z S; Dozen, C; Gecit, F H; Girgis, S; Gokbulut, G; Guler, Y; Gurpinar, E; Hos, I; Kangal, E E; Kayis Topaksu, A; Onengut, G; Ozcan, M; Ozdemir, K; Ozturk, S; Sunar Cerci, D; Tali, B; Topakli, H; Zorbilmez, C; Bilin, B; Bilmis, S; Isildak, B; Karapinar, G; Yalvac, M; Zeyrek, M; Gülmez, E; Kaya, M; Kaya, O; Yetkin, E A; Yetkin, T; Cakir, A; Cankocak, K; Sen, S; Vardarlı, F I; Grynyov, B; Levchuk, L; Sorokin, P; Aggleton, R; Ball, F; Beck, L; Brooke, J J; Clement, E; Cussans, D; Flacher, H; Goldstein, J; Grimes, M; Heath, G P; Heath, H F; Jacob, J; Kreczko, L; Lucas, C; Meng, Z; Newbold, D M; Paramesvaran, S; Poll, A; Sakuma, T; Seif El Nasr-Storey, S; Senkin, S; Smith, D; Smith, V J; Bell, K W; Belyaev, A; Brew, C; Brown, R M; Calligaris, L; Cieri, D; Cockerill, D J A; Coughlan, J A; Harder, K; Harper, S; Olaiya, E; Petyt, D; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C H; Thea, A; Tomalin, I R; Williams, T; Worm, S D; Baber, M; Bainbridge, R; Buchmuller, O; Bundock, A; Burton, D; Casasso, S; Citron, M; Colling, D; Corpe, L; Dauncey, P; Davies, G; De Wit, A; Della Negra, M; Dunne, P; Elwood, A; Futyan, D; Hall, G; Iles, G; Lane, R; 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Carlson, B; Ferguson, T; Paulini, M; Russ, J; Sun, M; Vogel, H; Vorobiev, I; Cumalat, J P; Ford, W T; Gaz, A; Jensen, F; Johnson, A; Krohn, M; Mulholland, T; Nauenberg, U; Stenson, K; Wagner, S R; Alexander, J; Chatterjee, A; Chaves, J; Chu, J; Dittmer, S; Eggert, N; Mirman, N; Nicolas Kaufman, G; Patterson, J R; Rinkevicius, A; Ryd, A; Skinnari, L; Soffi, L; Sun, W; Tan, S M; Teo, W D; Thom, J; Thompson, J; Tucker, J; Weng, Y; Wittich, P; Abdullin, S; Albrow, M; Apollinari, G; Banerjee, S; Bauerdick, L A T; Beretvas, A; Berryhill, J; Bhat, P C; Bolla, G; Burkett, K; Butler, J N; Cheung, H W K; Chlebana, F; Cihangir, S; Elvira, V D; Fisk, I; Freeman, J; Gottschalk, E; Gray, L; Green, D; Grünendahl, S; Gutsche, O; Hanlon, J; Hare, D; Harris, R M; Hasegawa, S; Hirschauer, J; Hu, Z; Jayatilaka, B; Jindariani, S; Johnson, M; Joshi, U; Klima, B; Kreis, B; Lammel, S; Linacre, J; Lincoln, D; Lipton, R; Liu, T; Lopes De Sá, R; Lykken, J; Maeshima, K; Marraffino, J M; Maruyama, S; Mason, D; McBride, P; Merkel, P; Mrenna, S; Nahn, S; Newman-Holmes, C; O'Dell, V; Pedro, K; Prokofyev, O; Rakness, G; Sexton-Kennedy, E; Soha, A; Spalding, W J; Spiegel, L; Stoynev, S; Strobbe, N; Taylor, L; Tkaczyk, S; Tran, N V; Uplegger, L; Vaandering, E W; Vernieri, C; Verzocchi, M; Vidal, R; Wang, M; Weber, H A; Whitbeck, A; Acosta, D; Avery, P; Bortignon, P; Bourilkov, D; Carnes, A; Carver, M; Curry, D; Das, S; Field, R D; Furic, I K; Gleyzer, S V; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotov, K; Ma, P; Matchev, K; Mei, H; Milenovic, P; Mitselmakher, G; Rank, D; Rossin, R; Shchutska, L; Snowball, M; Sperka, D; Terentyev, N; Thomas, L; Wang, J; Wang, S; Yelton, J; Hewamanage, S; Linn, S; Markowitz, P; Martinez, G; Rodriguez, J L; Ackert, A; Adams, J R; Adams, T; Askew, A; Bein, S; Bochenek, J; Diamond, B; Haas, J; Hagopian, S; Hagopian, V; Johnson, K F; Khatiwada, A; Prosper, H; Weinberg, M; Baarmand, M M; Bhopatkar, V; Colafranceschi, S; Hohlmann, M; Kalakhety, H; Noonan, D; Roy, T; Yumiceva, F; Adams, M R; Apanasevich, L; Berry, D; Betts, R R; Bucinskaite, I; Cavanaugh, R; Evdokimov, O; Gauthier, L; Gerber, C E; Hofman, D J; Kurt, P; O'Brien, C; Sandoval Gonzalez, I D; Turner, P; Varelas, N; Wu, Z; Zakaria, M; Bilki, B; Clarida, W; Dilsiz, K; Durgut, S; Gandrajula, R P; Haytmyradov, M; Khristenko, V; Merlo, J-P; Mermerkaya, H; Mestvirishvili, A; Moeller, A; Nachtman, J; Ogul, H; Onel, Y; Ozok, F; Penzo, A; Snyder, C; Tiras, E; Wetzel, J; Yi, K; Anderson, I; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B; Eminizer, N; Fehling, D; Feng, L; Gritsan, A V; Maksimovic, P; Martin, C; Osherson, M; Roskes, J; Sady, A; Sarica, U; Swartz, M; Xiao, M; Xin, Y; You, C; Baringer, P; Bean, A; Benelli, G; Bruner, C; Kenny, R P; Majumder, D; Malek, M; Murray, M; Sanders, S; Stringer, R; Wang, Q; Ivanov, A; Kaadze, K; Khalil, S; Makouski, M; Maravin, Y; Mohammadi, A; Saini, L K; Skhirtladze, N; Toda, S; Lange, D; Rebassoo, F; Wright, D; Anelli, C; Baden, A; Baron, O; Belloni, A; Calvert, B; Eno, S C; Ferraioli, C; Gomez, J A; Hadley, N J; Jabeen, S; Kellogg, R G; Kolberg, T; Kunkle, J; Lu, Y; Mignerey, A C; Shin, Y H; Skuja, A; Tonjes, M B; Tonwar, S C; Apyan, A; Barbieri, R; Baty, A; Bierwagen, K; Brandt, S; Busza, W; Cali, I A; Demiragli, Z; Di Matteo, L; Gomez Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; Gulhan, D; Iiyama, Y; Innocenti, G M; Klute, M; Kovalskyi, D; Lai, Y S; Lee, Y-J; Levin, A; Luckey, P D; Marini, A C; Mcginn, C; Mironov, C; Narayanan, S; Niu, X; Paus, C; Roland, C; Roland, G; Salfeld-Nebgen, J; Stephans, G S F; Sumorok, K; Varma, M; Velicanu, D; Veverka, J; Wang, J; Wang, T W; Wyslouch, B; Yang, M; Zhukova, V; Dahmes, B; Evans, A; Finkel, A; Gude, A; Hansen, P; Kalafut, S; Kao, S C; Klapoetke, K; Kubota, Y; Lesko, Z; Mans, J; Nourbakhsh, S; Ruckstuhl, N; Rusack, R; Tambe, N; Turkewitz, J; Acosta, J G; Oliveros, S; Avdeeva, E; Bartek, R; Bloom, K; Bose, S; Claes, D R; Dominguez, A; Fangmeier, C; Gonzalez Suarez, R; Kamalieddin, R; Knowlton, D; Kravchenko, I; Meier, F; Monroy, J; Ratnikov, F; Siado, J E; Snow, G R; Alyari, M; Dolen, J; 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Malik, S; Barker, A; Barnes, V E; Benedetti, D; Bortoletto, D; Gutay, L; Jha, M K; Jones, M; Jung, A W; Jung, K; Kumar, A; Miller, D H; Neumeister, N; Radburn-Smith, B C; Shi, X; Shipsey, I; Silvers, D; Sun, J; Svyatkovskiy, A; Wang, F; Xie, W; Xu, L; Parashar, N; Stupak, J; Adair, A; Akgun, B; Chen, Z; Ecklund, K M; Geurts, F J M; Guilbaud, M; Li, W; Michlin, B; Northup, M; Padley, B P; Redjimi, R; Roberts, J; Rorie, J; Tu, Z; Zabel, J; Betchart, B; Bodek, A; de Barbaro, P; Demina, R; Eshaq, Y; Ferbel, T; Galanti, M; Garcia-Bellido, A; Han, J; Harel, A; Hindrichs, O; Khukhunaishvili, A; Petrillo, G; Tan, P; Verzetti, M; Chou, J P; Contreras-Campana, E; Ferencek, D; Gershtein, Y; Halkiadakis, E; Hidas, D; Hughes, E; Kaplan, S; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R; Lath, A; Nash, K; Salur, S; Schnetzer, S; Sheffield, D; Somalwar, S; Stone, R; Thomas, S; Thomassen, P; Walker, M; Foerster, M; Riley, G; Rose, K; Spanier, S; Bouhali, O; Castaneda Hernandez, A; Celik, A; Dalchenko, M; De Mattia, M; Delgado, A; Dildick, S; Eusebi, R; Gilmore, J; Huang, T; Kamon, T; Krutelyov, V; Mueller, R; Osipenkov, I; Pakhotin, Y; Patel, R; Perloff, A; Rose, A; Safonov, A; Tatarinov, A; Ulmer, K A; Akchurin, N; Cowden, C; Damgov, J; Dragoiu, C; Dudero, P R; Faulkner, J; Kunori, S; Lamichhane, K; Lee, S W; Libeiro, T; Undleeb, S; Volobouev, I; Appelt, E; Delannoy, A G; Greene, S; Gurrola, A; Janjam, R; Johns, W; Maguire, C; Mao, Y; Melo, A; Ni, H; Sheldon, P; Tuo, S; Velkovska, J; Xu, Q; Arenton, M W; Cox, B; Francis, B; Goodell, J; Hirosky, R; Ledovskoy, A; Li, H; Lin, C; Neu, C; Sinthuprasith, T; Sun, X; Wang, Y; Wolfe, E; Wood, J; Xia, F; Clarke, C; Harr, R; Karchin, P E; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C; Lamichhane, P; Sturdy, J; Belknap, D A; Carlsmith, D; Cepeda, M; Dasu, S; Dodd, L; Duric, S; Gomber, B; Grothe, M; Hall-Wilton, R; Herndon, M; Hervé, A; Klabbers, P; Lanaro, A; Levine, A; Long, K; Loveless, R; Mohapatra, A; Ojalvo, I; Perry, T; Pierro, G A; Polese, G; Ruggles, T; Sarangi, T; Savin, A; Sharma, A; Smith, N; Smith, W H; Taylor, D; Verwilligen, P; Woods, N

    2016-02-19

    A search for narrow resonances in proton-proton collisions at sqrt[s]=13  TeV is presented. The invariant mass distribution of the two leading jets is measured with the CMS detector using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.4  fb^{-1}. The highest observed dijet mass is 6.1 TeV. The distribution is smooth and no evidence for resonant particles is observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the production cross section for narrow resonances with masses above 1.5 TeV. When interpreted in the context of specific models, the limits exclude string resonances with masses below 7.0 TeV, scalar diquarks below 6.0 TeV, axigluons and colorons below 5.1 TeV, excited quarks below 5.0 TeV, color-octet scalars below 3.1 TeV, and W^{'} bosons below 2.6 TeV. These results significantly extend previously published limits.

  6. Consequences of narrow cyclotron emission from Hercules X-1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weaver, R. P.

    1978-01-01

    The implications of the recent observations of a narrow cyclotron line in the hard X-ray spectrum of Hercules X-1 are studied. A Monte Carlo code is used to simulate the X-ray transfer of an intrinsically narrow feature at approximately 56 keV through an opaque, cold magnetospheric shell. The results of this study indicate that if a narrow line can be emitted by the source region, then only about 10% of the photons remain in a narrow feature after scattering through the shell. The remaining photons are scattered into a broad feature (FWHM approximately 30 keV) that peaks near 20 keV. Thus, these calculations indicate that the intrinsic source luminosity of the cyclotron line is at least an order of magnitude greater than the observed luminosity.

  7. [Age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items: mega-data from a Japanese Health Service Association].

    PubMed

    Suka, Machi; Yoshida, Katsumi; Kawai, Tadashi; Aoki, Yoshikazu; Yamane, Noriyuki; Yamauchi, Kuniaki

    2005-07-01

    To determine age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items in Japanese adults. Health examination data were accumulated from 24 different prefectural health service associations affiliated with the Japan Association of Health Service. Those who were non-smokers, drank less than 7 days/week, and had a body mass index of 18.5-24.9kg/m2 were sampled as a reference population (n = 737,538; 224,947 men and 512,591 women). After classified by age and sex, reference intervals for 10 health examination items (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, uric acid, AST, ALT, gamma-GT, and hemoglobin) were estimated using the parametric and nonparametric methods. In every item except for hemoglobin, men had higher reference intervals than women. Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and glucose showed an upward trend in values with increasing age. Hemoglobin showed a downward trend in values with increasing age. Triglyceride, ALT, and gamma-GT reached a peak in middle age. Overall, parametric estimates showed narrower reference intervals than non-parametric estimates. Reference intervals vary with age and sex. Age- and sex-specific reference intervals may contribute to better assessment of health examination data.

  8. Iron Metabolism Genes, Low-Level Lead Exposure, and QT Interval

    PubMed Central

    Park, Sung Kyun; Hu, Howard; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Cheng, Yawen; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Weisskopf, Marc G.

    2009-01-01

    Background Cumulative exposure to lead has been shown to be associated with depression of electrocardiographic conduction, such as QT interval (time from start of the Q wave to end of the T wave). Because iron can enhance the oxidative effects of lead, we examined whether polymorphisms in iron metabolism genes [hemochromatosis (HFE), transferrin (TF) C2, and heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX-1)] increase susceptibility to the effects of lead on QT interval in 613 community-dwelling older men. Methods We used standard 12-lead electrocardiograms, K-shell X-ray fluorescence, and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry to measure QT interval, bone lead, and blood lead levels, respectively. Results A one-interquartile-range increase in tibia lead level (13 μg/g) was associated with a 11.35-msec [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.05–18.65 msec] and a 6.81-msec (95% CI, 1.67–11.95 msec) increase in the heart-rate–corrected QT interval among persons carrying long HMOX-1 alleles and at least one copy of an HFE variant, respectively, but had no effect in persons with short and middle HMOX-1 alleles and the wild-type HFE genotype. The lengthening of the heart-rate–corrected QT interval with higher tibia lead and blood lead became more pronounced as the total number (0 vs. 1 vs. ≥2) of gene variants increased (tibia, p-trend = 0.01; blood, p-trend = 0.04). This synergy seems to be driven by a joint effect between HFE variant and HMOX-1 L alleles. Conclusion We found evidence that gene variants related to iron metabolism increase the impacts of low-level lead exposure on the prolonged QT interval. This is the first such report, so these results should be interpreted cautiously and need to be independently verified. PMID:19165391

  9. Design, Construction, Demonstration and Delivery of an Automated Narrow Gap Welding System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-29

    DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, DEMONSTRATION AND DELIVERY OF WE DA4I &NARROW GAP CONTRACT NO. NOOGOO-81-C-E923 TO DAVID TAYLOR NAVAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT...the automated * Narrow Gap welding process, is the narrow (3/8 - inch), square-butt joint *design. This narrow joint greatly reduces the volume of weld...AD-i45 495 DESIGN CONSTRUCTION DEMONSTRATION AiND DELIVERY OF RN 1/j AUrOMATED NARROW GAP WELDING SYSTEMI() CRC AUTOMATIC WELDING CO HOUSTON TX 29

  10. Confidence in critical care nursing.

    PubMed

    Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

  11. Bayesian Face Recognition and Perceptual Narrowing in Face-Space

    PubMed Central

    Balas, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    During the first year of life, infants’ face recognition abilities are subject to “perceptual narrowing,” the end result of which is that observers lose the ability to distinguish previously discriminable faces (e.g. other-race faces) from one another. Perceptual narrowing has been reported for faces of different species and different races, in developing humans and primates. Though the phenomenon is highly robust and replicable, there have been few efforts to model the emergence of perceptual narrowing as a function of the accumulation of experience with faces during infancy. The goal of the current study is to examine how perceptual narrowing might manifest as statistical estimation in “face space,” a geometric framework for describing face recognition that has been successfully applied to adult face perception. Here, I use a computer vision algorithm for Bayesian face recognition to study how the acquisition of experience in face space and the presence of race categories affect performance for own and other-race faces. Perceptual narrowing follows from the establishment of distinct race categories, suggesting that the acquisition of category boundaries for race is a key computational mechanism in developing face expertise. PMID:22709406

  12. Narrow Escape of Interacting Diffusing Particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agranov, Tal; Meerson, Baruch

    2018-03-01

    The narrow escape problem deals with the calculation of the mean escape time (MET) of a Brownian particle from a bounded domain through a small hole on the domain's boundary. Here we develop a formalism which allows us to evaluate the nonescape probability of a gas of diffusing particles that may interact with each other. In some cases the nonescape probability allows us to evaluate the MET of the first particle. The formalism is based on the fluctuating hydrodynamics and the recently developed macroscopic fluctuation theory. We also uncover an unexpected connection between the narrow escape of interacting particles and thermal runaway in chemical reactors.

  13. Parametric Dynamic Load Prediction of a Narrow Gauge Rocket Sled

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    Monorail λ Compared to Sled Tests.......................................................... 11 Figure 2.1 Application of Vertical λ to a Narrow Gauge sled...Three distinct sled configurations are used: monorail , dual rail wide gauge, and dual rail narrow gauge. Of the three, the narrow gauge...weight and the resulting value was termed λ. Monorail λ factor loading was first documented by Mixon (1971) where a few measured data points were

  14. A model for developing disability confidence.

    PubMed

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  15. Interval Training

    MedlinePlus

    Healthy Lifestyle Fitness Interval training can help you get the most out of your workout. By Mayo Clinic Staff Are you ready to shake ... spending more time at the gym? Consider aerobic interval training. Once the domain of elite athletes, interval training ...

  16. Epidemiology and the law: courts and confidence intervals.

    PubMed Central

    Christoffel, T; Teret, S P

    1991-01-01

    Beginning with the swine flu litigation of the early 1980s, epidemiological evidence has played an increasingly prominent role in helping the nation's courts deal with alleged causal connections between plaintiffs' diseases or other harm and exposure to specific noxious agents (such as asbestos, toxic waste, radiation, and pharmaceuticals). Judicial reliance on epidemiology has high-lighted the contrast between the nature of scientific proof and of legal proof. Epidemiologists need to recognize and understand the growing involvement of their profession in complex tort litigation. PMID:1746668

  17. Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Multiplication and Efficiency

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Verbeke, J

    2009-07-17

    Helium-3 tubes are used to detect thermal neutrons by charge collection using the {sup 3}He(n,p) reaction. By analyzing the time sequence of neutrons detected by these tubes, one can determine important features about the constitution of a measured object: Some materials such as Cf-252 emit several neutrons simultaneously, while others such as uranium and plutonium isotopes multiply the number of neutrons to form bursts. This translates into unmistakable signatures. To determine the type of materials measured, one compares the measured count distribution with the one generated by a theoretical fission chain model. When the neutron background is negligible, the theoreticalmore » count distributions can be completely characterized by a pair of parameters, the multiplication M and the detection efficiency {var_epsilon}. While the optimal pair of M and {var_epsilon} can be determined by existing codes such as BigFit, the uncertainty on these parameters has not yet been fully studied. The purpose of this work is to precisely compute the uncertainties on the parameters M and {var_epsilon}, given the uncertainties in the count distribution. By considering different lengths of time tagged data, we will determine how the uncertainties on M and {var_epsilon} vary with the different count distributions.« less

  18. Confidence Intervals for Omega Coefficient: Proposal for Calculus.

    PubMed

    Ventura-León, José Luis

    2018-01-01

    La confiabilidad es entendida como una propiedad métrica de las puntuaciones de un instrumento de medida. Recientemente se viene utilizando el coeficiente omega (ω) para la estimación de la confiabilidad. No obstante, la medición nunca es exacta por la influencia del error aleatorio, por esa razón es necesario calcular y reportar el intervalo de confianza (IC) que permite encontrar en valor verdadero en un rango de medida. En ese contexto, el artículo plantea una forma de estimar el IC mediante el método de bootstrap para facilitar este procedimiento se brindan códigos de R (un software de acceso libre) para que puedan realizarse los cálculos de una forma amigable. Se espera que el artículo sirva de ayuda a los investigadores de ámbito de salud.

  19. CIMP status of interval colon cancers: another piece to the puzzle.

    PubMed

    Arain, Mustafa A; Sawhney, Mandeep; Sheikh, Shehla; Anway, Ruth; Thyagarajan, Bharat; Bond, John H; Shaukat, Aasma

    2010-05-01

    Colon cancers diagnosed in the interval after a complete colonoscopy may occur due to limitations of colonoscopy or due to the development of new tumors, possibly reflecting molecular and environmental differences in tumorigenesis resulting in rapid tumor growth. In a previous study from our group, interval cancers (colon cancers diagnosed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy) were almost four times more likely to demonstrate microsatellite instability (MSI) than non-interval cancers. In this study we extended our molecular analysis to compare the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) status of interval and non-interval colorectal cancers and investigate the relationship between the CIMP and MSI pathways in the pathogenesis of interval cancers. We searched our institution's cancer registry for interval cancers, defined as colon cancers that developed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy. These were frequency matched in a 1:2 ratio by age and sex to patients with non-interval cancers (defined as colon cancers diagnosed on a patient's first recorded colonoscopy). Archived cancer specimens for all subjects were retrieved and tested for CIMP gene markers. The MSI status of subjects identified between 1989 and 2004 was known from our previous study. Tissue specimens of newly identified cases and controls (between 2005 and 2006) were tested for MSI. There were 1,323 cases of colon cancer diagnosed over the 17-year study period, of which 63 were identified as having interval cancer and matched to 131 subjects with non-interval cancer. Study subjects were almost all Caucasian men. CIMP was present in 57% of interval cancers compared to 33% of non-interval cancers (P=0.004). As shown previously, interval cancers were more likely than non-interval cancers to occur in the proximal colon (63% vs. 39%; P=0.002), and have MSI 29% vs. 11%, P=0.004). In multivariable logistic regression model, proximal location (odds ratio (OR) 1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1

  20. Pulse stretcher for narrow pulses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lindsey, R. S., Jr. (Inventor)

    1974-01-01

    A pulse stretcher for narrow pulses is presented. The stretcher is composed of an analog section for processing each arriving analog pulse and a digital section with logic for providing command signals to the gates and switches in the analog section.

  1. Narrow-band search of continuous gravitational-wave signals from Crab and Vela pulsars in Virgo VSR4 data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Alemic, A.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J. S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barbet, M.; Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Bartlett, J.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Bauer, Th. S.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Belczynski, C.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Benacquista, M.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biscans, S.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, Sukanta; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchman, S.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C.; Colombini, M.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Cutler, C.; Dahl, K.; Canton, T. Dal; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dartez, L.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dolique, V.; Dominguez, E.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edo, T.; Edwards, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fuentes-Tapia, S.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S.; Garufi, F.; Gatto, A.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gergely, L. Á.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Gräf, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C. J.; Guo, X.; Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Hee, S.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M.; Heinzel, G.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Islas, G.; Isler, J. C.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; Jang, H.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Ji, Y.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Keiser, G. M.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N. G.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Lazzaro, C.; Le, J.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Libbrecht, K.; Libson, A.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macarthur, J.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R.; Mageswaran, M.; Maglione, C.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McLin, K.; McWilliams, S.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Meinders, M.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moore, B.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nagy, M. F.; Nardecchia, I.; Nash, T.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, I.; Neri, M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A. H.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, R.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Pai, S.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patrick, Z.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Poggiani, R.; Post, A.; Poteomkin, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quiroga, G.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rácz, I.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Reula, O.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Sawadsky, A.; Scheuer, J.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Serafinelli, R.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Singh, R.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Staley, A.; Stebbins, J.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szczepanczyk, M.; Szeifert, G.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Tellez, G.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Tshilumba, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; van den Broeck, C.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Xie, S.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, Q.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present the results of a coherent narrow-band search for continuous gravitational-wave signals from the Crab and Vela pulsars conducted on Virgo VSR4 data. In order to take into account a possible small mismatch between the gravitational-wave frequency and two times the star rotation frequency, inferred from measurement of the electromagnetic pulse rate, a range of 0.02 Hz around two times the star rotational frequency has been searched for both the pulsars. No evidence for a signal has been found and 95% confidence level upper limits have been computed assuming both that polarization parameters are completely unknown and that they are known with some uncertainty, as derived from x-ray observations of the pulsar wind torii. For Vela the upper limits are comparable to the spin-down limit, computed assuming that all the observed spin-down is due to the emission of gravitational waves. For Crab the upper limits are about a factor of 2 below the spin-down limit, and represent a significant improvement with respect to past analysis. This is the first time the spin-down limit is significantly overcome in a narrow-band search.

  2. Narrow-Band Search of Continuous Gravitational-Wave Signals from Crab and Vela Pulsars in Virgo VSR4 Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Adams, T.; hide

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present the results of a coherent narrow-band search for continuous gravitational-wave signals from the Crab and Vela pulsars conducted on Virgo VSR4 data. In order to take into account a possible small mismatch between the gravitational wave frequency and two times the star rotation frequency, inferred from measurement of the electromagnetic pulse rate, a range of 0.02 Hz around two times the star rotational frequency has been searched for both the pulsars. No evidence for a signal has been found and 95% confidence level upper limits have been computed both assuming polarization parameters are completely unknown and that they are known with some uncertainty, as derived from X-ray observations of the pulsar wind torii. For Vela the upper limits are comparable to the spin-down limit, computed assuming that all the observed spin-down is due to the emission of gravitational waves. For Crab the upper limits are about a factor of two below the spin-down limit, and represent a significant improvement with respect to past analysis. This is the first time the spin-down limit is significantly overcome in a narrow-band search.

  3. Echolocating Big Brown Bats, Eptesicus fuscus, Modulate Pulse Intervals to Overcome Range Ambiguity in Cluttered Surroundings

    PubMed Central

    Wheeler, Alyssa R.; Fulton, Kara A.; Gaudette, Jason E.; Simmons, Ryan A.; Matsuo, Ikuo; Simmons, James A.

    2016-01-01

    Big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) emit trains of brief, wideband frequency-modulated (FM) echolocation sounds and use echoes of these sounds to orient, find insects, and guide flight through vegetation. They are observed to emit sounds that alternate between short and long inter-pulse intervals (IPIs), forming sonar sound groups. The occurrence of these strobe groups has been linked to flight in cluttered acoustic environments, but how exactly bats use sonar sound groups to orient and navigate is still a mystery. Here, the production of sound groups during clutter navigation was examined. Controlled flight experiments were conducted where the proximity of the nearest obstacles was systematically decreased while the extended scene was kept constant. Four bats flew along a corridor of varying widths (100, 70, and 40 cm) bounded by rows of vertically hanging plastic chains while in-flight echolocation calls were recorded. Bats shortened their IPIs for more rapid spatial sampling and also grouped their sounds more tightly when flying in narrower corridors. Bats emitted echolocation calls with progressively shorter IPIs over the course of a flight, and began their flights by emitting shorter starting IPI calls when clutter was denser. The percentage of sound groups containing 3 or more calls increased with increasing clutter proximity. Moreover, IPI sequences having internal structure become more pronounced when corridor width narrows. A novel metric for analyzing the temporal organization of sound sequences was developed, and the results indicate that the time interval between echolocation calls depends heavily on the preceding time interval. The occurrence of specific IPI patterns were dependent upon clutter, which suggests that sonar sound grouping may be an adaptive strategy for coping with pulse-echo ambiguity in cluttered surroundings. PMID:27445723

  4. Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gannon, James M.

    1994-12-01

    System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

  5. Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants.

    PubMed

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo

    2017-04-01

    Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework

  6. An interval model updating strategy using interval response surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Sheng-En; Zhang, Qiu-Hu; Ren, Wei-Xin

    2015-08-01

    Stochastic model updating provides an effective way of handling uncertainties existing in real-world structures. In general, probabilistic theories, fuzzy mathematics or interval analyses are involved in the solution of inverse problems. However in practice, probability distributions or membership functions of structural parameters are often unavailable due to insufficient information of a structure. At this moment an interval model updating procedure shows its superiority in the aspect of problem simplification since only the upper and lower bounds of parameters and responses are sought. To this end, this study develops a new concept of interval response surface models for the purpose of efficiently implementing the interval model updating procedure. The frequent interval overestimation due to the use of interval arithmetic can be maximally avoided leading to accurate estimation of parameter intervals. Meanwhile, the establishment of an interval inverse problem is highly simplified, accompanied by a saving of computational costs. By this means a relatively simple and cost-efficient interval updating process can be achieved. Lastly, the feasibility and reliability of the developed method have been verified against a numerical mass-spring system and also against a set of experimentally tested steel plates.

  7. The dose delivery effect of the different Beam ON interval in FFF SBRT: TrueBEAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawonwong, T.; Suriyapee, S.; Oonsiri, S.; Sanghangthum, T.; Oonsiri, P.

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the dose delivery effect of the different Beam ON interval in Flattening Filter Free Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (FFF-SBRT). The three 10MV-FFF SBRT plans (2 half rotating Rapid Arc, 9 to10 Gray/Fraction) were selected and irradiated in three different intervals (100%, 50% and 25%) using the RPM gating system. The plan verification was performed by the ArcCHECK for gamma analysis and the ionization chamber for point dose measurement. The dose delivery time of each interval were observed. For gamma analysis (2%&2mm criteria), the average percent pass of all plans for 100%, 50% and 25% intervals were 86.1±3.3%, 86.0±3.0% and 86.1±3.3%, respectively. For point dose measurement, the average ratios of each interval to the treatment planning were 1.012±0.015, 1.011±0.014 and 1.011±0.013 for 100%, 50% and 25% interval, respectively. The average dose delivery time was increasing from 74.3±5.0 second for 100% interval to 154.3±12.6 and 347.9±20.3 second for 50% and 25% interval, respectively. The same quality of the dose delivery from different Beam ON intervals in FFF-SBRT by TrueBEAM was illustrated. While the 100% interval represents the breath-hold treatment technique, the differences for the free-breathing using RPM gating system can be treated confidently.

  8. [Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

    PubMed

    Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

    2006-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

  9. Confidence-Building Measures in Philippine Security.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-05-01

    service or government agency. STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT i CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN PHILIPPINE SECURITY BY LIEUTENANT COLONEL RAMON G...WAR COLLEGE, CARLISLE BARRACKS, PA 17013-5050 rimo*’^»®*raBl USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN PHILIPPINE...Colonel Ramon Santos, Philippine Army TITLE: Confidence-Building Measures in Philippine Security FORMAT: Strategy Research Project DATE: 1

  10. Interpregnancy Interval and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes: An Analysis of Successive Pregnancies.

    PubMed

    Hanley, Gillian E; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Kinniburgh, Brooke A; Lee, Lily

    2017-03-01

    To examine the association between interpregnancy interval and maternal-neonate health when matching women to their successive pregnancies to control for differences in maternal risk factors and compare these results with traditional unmatched designs. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 38,178 women with three or more deliveries (two or greater interpregnancy intervals) between 2000 and 2015 in British Columbia, Canada. We examined interpregnancy interval (0-5, 6-11, 12-17, 18-23 [reference], 24-59, and 60 months or greater) in relation to neonatal outcomes (preterm birth [less than 37 weeks of gestation], small-for-gestational-age birth [less than the 10th centile], use of neonatal intensive care, low birth weight [less than 2,500 g]) and maternal outcomes (gestational diabetes, beginning the subsequent pregnancy obese [body mass index 30 or greater], and preeclampsia-eclampsia). We used conditional logistic regression to compare interpregnancy intervals within the same mother and unconditional (unmatched) logistic regression to enable comparison with prior research. Analyses using the traditional unmatched design showed significantly increased risks associated with short interpregnancy intervals (eg, there were 232 preterm births [12.8%] in 0-5 months compared with 501 [8.2%] in the 18-23 months reference group; adjusted odds ratio [OR] for preterm birth 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.73). However, these risks were eliminated in within-woman matched analyses (adjusted OR for preterm birth 0.85, 95% CI 0.71-1.02). Matched results indicated that short interpregnancy intervals were significantly associated with increased risk of gestational diabetes (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.80 for 0-5 months) and beginning the subsequent pregnancy obese (adjusted OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.45 for 0-5 months and adjusted OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.87 for 6-11 months). Previously reported associations between short interpregnancy intervals and adverse neonatal

  11. Experimental congruence of interval scale production from paired comparisons and ranking for image evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Handley, John C.; Babcock, Jason S.; Pelz, Jeff B.

    2003-12-01

    Image evaluation tasks are often conducted using paired comparisons or ranking. To elicit interval scales, both methods rely on Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment in which objects closer in psychological space are more often confused in preference comparisons by a putative discriminal random process. It is often debated whether paired comparisons and ranking yield the same interval scales. An experiment was conducted to assess scale production using paired comparisons and ranking. For this experiment a Pioneer Plasma Display and Apple Cinema Display were used for stimulus presentation. Observers performed rank order and paired comparisons tasks on both displays. For each of five scenes, six images were created by manipulating attributes such as lightness, chroma, and hue using six different settings. The intention was to simulate the variability from a set of digital cameras or scanners. Nineteen subjects, (5 females, 14 males) ranging from 19-51 years of age participated in this experiment. Using a paired comparison model and a ranking model, scales were estimated for each display and image combination yielding ten scale pairs, ostensibly measuring the same psychological scale. The Bradley-Terry model was used for the paired comparisons data and the Bradley-Terry-Mallows model was used for the ranking data. Each model was fit using maximum likelihood estimation and assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were also constructed using likelihood ratios. Model fits for paired comparisons were satisfactory for all scales except those from two image/display pairs; the ranking model fit uniformly well on all data sets. Arguing from overlapping confidence intervals, we conclude that paired comparisons and ranking produce no conflicting decisions regarding ultimate ordering of treatment preferences, but paired comparisons yield greater precision at the expense of lack-of-fit.

  12. The narrow pentaquark

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Diakonov, Dmitri

    2007-02-27

    The experimental status of the pentaquark searches is briefly reviewed. Recent null results by the CLAS collaboration are commented, and new strong evidence of a very narrow {theta}+ resonance by the DIANA collaboration is presented. On the theory side, I revisit the argument against the existence of the pentaquark - that of Callan and Klebanov - and show that actually a strong resonance is predicted in that approach, however its width is grossly overestimated. A recent calculation gives 2 MeV for the pentaquark width, and this number is probably still an upper bound.

  13. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    PubMed

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Galaxy properties from J-PAS narrow-band photometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mejía-Narváez, A.; Bruzual, G.; Magris, C. G.; Alcaniz, J. S.; Benítez, N.; Carneiro, S.; Cenarro, A. J.; Cristóbal-Hornillos, D.; Dupke, R.; Ederoclite, A.; Marín-Franch, A.; de Oliveira, C. Mendes; Moles, M.; Sodre, L.; Taylor, K.; Varela, J.; Ramió, H. Vázquez

    2017-11-01

    We study the consistency of the physical properties of galaxies retrieved from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting as a function of spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Using a selection of physically motivated star formation histories, we set up a control sample of mock galaxy spectra representing observations of the local Universe in high-resolution spectroscopy, and in 56 narrow-band and 5 broad-band photometry. We fit the SEDs at these spectral resolutions and compute their corresponding stellar mass, the mass- and luminosity-weighted age and metallicity, and the dust extinction. We study the biases, correlations and degeneracies affecting the retrieved parameters and explore the role of the spectral resolution and the SNR in regulating these degeneracies. We find that narrow-band photometry and spectroscopy yield similar trends in the physical properties derived, the former being considerably more precise. Using a galaxy sample from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we compare more realistically the results obtained from high-resolution and narrow-band SEDs (synthesized from the same SDSS spectra) following the same spectral fitting procedures. We use results from the literature as a benchmark to our spectroscopic estimates and show that the prior probability distribution functions, commonly adopted in parametric methods, may introduce biases not accounted for in a Bayesian framework. We conclude that narrow-band photometry yields the same trend in the age-metallicity relation in the literature, provided it is affected by the same biases as spectroscopy, albeit the precision achieved with the latter is generally twice as large as with the narrow-band, at SNR values typical of the different kinds of data.

  15. Binary Interval Search: a scalable algorithm for counting interval intersections.

    PubMed

    Layer, Ryan M; Skadron, Kevin; Robins, Gabriel; Hall, Ira M; Quinlan, Aaron R

    2013-01-01

    The comparison of diverse genomic datasets is fundamental to understand genome biology. Researchers must explore many large datasets of genome intervals (e.g. genes, sequence alignments) to place their experimental results in a broader context and to make new discoveries. Relationships between genomic datasets are typically measured by identifying intervals that intersect, that is, they overlap and thus share a common genome interval. Given the continued advances in DNA sequencing technologies, efficient methods for measuring statistically significant relationships between many sets of genomic features are crucial for future discovery. We introduce the Binary Interval Search (BITS) algorithm, a novel and scalable approach to interval set intersection. We demonstrate that BITS outperforms existing methods at counting interval intersections. Moreover, we show that BITS is intrinsically suited to parallel computing architectures, such as graphics processing units by illustrating its utility for efficient Monte Carlo simulations measuring the significance of relationships between sets of genomic intervals. https://github.com/arq5x/bits.

  16. The Effect of Divided Attention on Emotion-Induced Memory Narrowing

    PubMed Central

    Steinmetz, Katherine R. Mickley; Waring, Jill D.; Kensinger, Elizabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    Individuals are more likely to remember emotional than neutral information, but this benefit does not always extend to the surrounding background information. This memory narrowing is theorized to be linked to the availability of attentional resources at encoding. In contrast to the predictions of this theoretical account, altering participants’ attentional resources at encoding, by dividing attention, did not affect the emotion-induced memory narrowing. Attention was divided using three separate manipulations: a digit ordering task (Experiment 1), an arithmetic task (Experiment 2), and an auditory discrimination task (Experiment 3). Across all three experiments, divided attention decreased memory across-the-board but did not affect the degree of memory narrowing. These findings suggest that theories to explain memory narrowing must be expanded to include other potential mechanisms beyond limitations of attentional resources. PMID:24295041

  17. The effect of divided attention on emotion-induced memory narrowing.

    PubMed

    Mickley Steinmetz, Katherine R; Waring, Jill D; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

    2014-01-01

    Individuals are more likely to remember emotional than neutral information, but this benefit does not always extend to the surrounding background information. This memory narrowing is theorised to be linked to the availability of attentional resources at encoding. In contrast to the predictions of this theoretical account, altering participants' attentional resources at encoding by dividing attention did not affect emotion-induced memory narrowing. Attention was divided using three separate manipulations: a digit ordering task (Experiment 1), an arithmetic task (Experiment 2) and an auditory discrimination task (Experiment 3). Across all three experiments, divided attention decreased memory across the board but did not affect the degree of memory narrowing. These findings suggest that theories to explain memory narrowing must be expanded to include other potential mechanisms beyond the limitations of attentional resources.

  18. Pediatric reference intervals for random urine calcium, phosphorus and total protein.

    PubMed

    Slev, Patricia R; Bunker, Ashley M; Owen, William E; Roberts, William L

    2010-09-01

    The aim of this study was to establish age appropriate reference intervals for calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P) and total protein (UTP) in random urine samples. All analytes were measured using the Roche MODULAR P analyzer and normalized to creatinine (Cr). Our study cohort consisted of 674 boys and 728 girls between 7 and 17 years old (y.o.), which allowed us to determine the central 95% reference intervals with 90% confidence intervals by non-parametric analysis partitioned by both gender and 2-year age intervals for each analyte [i.e. boys in age group 7-9 years (7-9 boys); girls in age group 7-9 years (7-9 girls), etc.]. Results for the upper limits of the central 95% reference interval were: for Ca/Cr, 0.27 (16,17 y.o.) to 0.46 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the girls and 0.26 (16,17 y.o.) to 0.43 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the boys; for P/Cr, 0.85 (16,17 y.o.) to 1.44 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the girls and 0.87 (16,17 y.o.) to 1.68 mg/mg (7-9 y.o.) for the boys; for UTP/Cr, 0.30 (7-9 y.o.) to 0.34 mg/mg (10-12 y.o.) for the girls and 0.19 (16,17, y.o.) to 0.26 mg/mg (13-15 y.o.) for the boys. Upper reference limits decreased with increasing age, and age was a statistically significant variable for all analytes. Eight separate age- and gender-specific reference intervals are proposed per analyte.

  19. Bayesian Face Recognition and Perceptual Narrowing in Face-Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Balas, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    During the first year of life, infants' face recognition abilities are subject to "perceptual narrowing", the end result of which is that observers lose the ability to distinguish previously discriminable faces (e.g. other-race faces) from one another. Perceptual narrowing has been reported for faces of different species and different races, in…

  20. Sample size, confidence, and contingency judgement.

    PubMed

    Clément, Mélanie; Mercier, Pierre; Pastò, Luigi

    2002-06-01

    According to statistical models, the acquisition function of contingency judgement is due to confidence increasing with sample size. According to associative models, the function reflects the accumulation of associative strength on which the judgement is based. Which view is right? Thirty university students assessed the relation between a fictitious medication and a symptom of skin discoloration in conditions that varied sample size (4, 6, 8 or 40 trials) and contingency (delta P = .20, .40, .60 or .80). Confidence was also collected. Contingency judgement was lower for smaller samples, while confidence level correlated inversely with sample size. This dissociation between contingency judgement and confidence contradicts the statistical perspective.

  1. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  2. Very narrow excited Ωc baryons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karliner, Marek; Rosner, Jonathan L.

    2017-06-01

    Recently, LHCb reported the discovery of five extremely narrow excited Ωc baryons decaying into Ξc+K-. We interpret these baryons as bound states of a c quark and a P -wave s s diquark. For such a system, there are exactly five possible combinations of spin and orbital angular momentum. The narrowness of the states could be a signal that it is hard to pull apart the two s quarks in a diquark. We predict two of spin 1 /2 , two of spin 3 /2 , and one of spin 5 /2 , all with negative parity. Of the five states, two can decay in S -wave, and three can decay in D -wave. Some of the D -wave states might be narrower than the S -wave states. We discuss the relations among the five masses expected in the quark model and the likely spin assignments, and we compare them with the data. A similar pattern is expected for negative-parity excited Ωb states. An alternative interpretation is noted in which the heaviest two states are 2 S excitations with JP=1 /2+ and 3 /2+, while the lightest three are those with JP=3 /2- , 3 /2- , 5 /2- , expected to decay via D -waves. In this case, we expect JP=1 /2- Ωc states around 2904 and 2978 MeV.

  3. Variation in polyp size estimation among endoscopists and impact on surveillance intervals.

    PubMed

    Chaptini, Louis; Chaaya, Adib; Depalma, Fedele; Hunter, Krystal; Peikin, Steven; Laine, Loren

    2014-10-01

    Accurate estimation of polyp size is important because it is used to determine the surveillance interval after polypectomy. To evaluate the variation and accuracy in polyp size estimation among endoscopists and the impact on surveillance intervals after polypectomy. Web-based survey. A total of 873 members of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Participants watched video recordings of 4 polypectomies and were asked to estimate the polyp sizes. Proportion of participants with polyp size estimates within 20% of the correct measurement and the frequency of incorrect surveillance intervals based on inaccurate size estimates. Polyp size estimates were within 20% of the correct value for 1362 (48%) of 2812 estimates (range 39%-59% for the 4 polyps). Polyp size was overestimated by >20% in 889 estimates (32%, range 15%-49%) and underestimated by >20% in 561 (20%, range 4%-46%) estimates. Incorrect surveillance intervals because of overestimation or underestimation occurred in 272 (10%) of the 2812 estimates (range 5%-14%). Participants in a private practice setting overestimated the size of 3 or of all 4 polyps by >20% more often than participants in an academic setting (difference = 7%; 95% confidence interval, 1%-11%). Survey design with the use of video clips. Substantial overestimation and underestimation of polyp size occurs with visual estimation leading to incorrect surveillance intervals in 10% of cases. Our findings support routine use of measurement tools to improve polyp size estimates. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

    PubMed

    Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

    2004-09-01

    Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

  5. Binary Interval Search: a scalable algorithm for counting interval intersections

    PubMed Central

    Layer, Ryan M.; Skadron, Kevin; Robins, Gabriel; Hall, Ira M.; Quinlan, Aaron R.

    2013-01-01

    Motivation: The comparison of diverse genomic datasets is fundamental to understand genome biology. Researchers must explore many large datasets of genome intervals (e.g. genes, sequence alignments) to place their experimental results in a broader context and to make new discoveries. Relationships between genomic datasets are typically measured by identifying intervals that intersect, that is, they overlap and thus share a common genome interval. Given the continued advances in DNA sequencing technologies, efficient methods for measuring statistically significant relationships between many sets of genomic features are crucial for future discovery. Results: We introduce the Binary Interval Search (BITS) algorithm, a novel and scalable approach to interval set intersection. We demonstrate that BITS outperforms existing methods at counting interval intersections. Moreover, we show that BITS is intrinsically suited to parallel computing architectures, such as graphics processing units by illustrating its utility for efficient Monte Carlo simulations measuring the significance of relationships between sets of genomic intervals. Availability: https://github.com/arq5x/bits. Contact: arq5x@virginia.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23129298

  6. Estimating the Time Interval Between Exposure to the World Trade Center Disaster and Incident Diagnoses of Obstructive Airway Disease

    PubMed Central

    Glaser, Michelle S.; Webber, Mayris P.; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Weakley, Jessica; Liu, Xiaoxue; Ye, Fen; Cohen, Hillel W.; Aldrich, Thomas K.; Kelly, Kerry J.; Nolan, Anna; Weiden, Michael D.; Prezant, David J.; Hall, Charles B.

    2014-01-01

    Respiratory disorders are associated with occupational and environmental exposures. The latency period between exposure and disease onset remains uncertain. The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster presents a unique opportunity to describe the latency period for obstructive airway disease (OAD) diagnoses. This prospective cohort study of New York City firefighters compared the timing and incidence of physician-diagnosed OAD relative to WTC exposure. Exposure was categorized by WTC arrival time as high (on the morning of September 11, 2001), moderate (after noon on September 11, 2001, or on September 12, 2001), or low (during September 13–24, 2001). We modeled relative rates and 95% confidence intervals of OAD incidence by exposure over the first 5 years after September 11, 2001, estimating the times of change in the relative rate with change point models. We observed a change point at 15 months after September 11, 2001. Before 15 months, the relative rate for the high- versus low-exposure group was 3.96 (95% confidence interval: 2.51, 6.26) and thereafter, it was 1.76 (95% confidence interval: 1.26, 2.46). Incident OAD was associated with WTC exposure for at least 5 years after September 11, 2001. There were higher rates of new-onset OAD among the high-exposure group during the first 15 months and, to a lesser extent, throughout follow-up. This difference in relative rate by exposure occurred despite full and free access to health care for all WTC-exposed firefighters, demonstrating the persistence of WTC-associated OAD risk. PMID:24980522

  7. Confidant Relations of the Aged.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tigges, Leann M.; And Others

    The confidant relationship is a qualitatively distinct dimension of the emotional support system of the aged, yet the composition of the confidant network has been largely neglected in research on aging. Persons (N=940) 60 years of age and older were interviewed about their socio-environmental setting. From the enumeration of their relatives,…

  8. Sex-specific reference intervals of hematologic and biochemical analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats using the nonparametric rank percentile method.

    PubMed

    He, Qili; Su, Guoming; Liu, Keliang; Zhang, Fangcheng; Jiang, Yong; Gao, Jun; Liu, Lida; Jiang, Zhongren; Jin, Minwu; Xie, Huiping

    2017-01-01

    Hematologic and biochemical analytes of Sprague-Dawley rats are commonly used to determine effects that were induced by treatment and to evaluate organ dysfunction in toxicological safety assessments, but reference intervals have not been well established for these analytes. Reference intervals as presently defined for these analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats have not used internationally recommended statistical method nor stratified by sex. Thus, we aimed to establish sex-specific reference intervals for hematologic and biochemical parameters in Sprague-Dawley rats according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute C28-A3 and American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology guideline. Hematology and biochemistry blood samples were collected from 500 healthy Sprague-Dawley rats (250 males and 250 females) in the control groups. We measured 24 hematologic analytes with the Sysmex XT-2100i analyzer, 9 biochemical analytes with the Olympus AU400 analyzer. We then determined statistically relevant sex partitions and calculated reference intervals, including corresponding 90% confidence intervals, using nonparametric rank percentile method. We observed that most hematologic and biochemical analytes of Sprague-Dawley rats were significantly influenced by sex. Males had higher hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, red cell distribution width, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, white blood cell count, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of monocytes, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and triglycerides compared to females. Females had higher mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, plateletcrit, platelet count, eosinophils, percentage of lymphocytes, percentage of eosinophils, creatinine, glucose, total cholesterol and urea compared to males. Sex partition was required for most hematologic and biochemical analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats. We established sex-specific reference

  9. Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

    PubMed

    Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

    2008-01-01

    The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible

  10. Association of cardiac implantable electronic devices with survival in bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on electrocardiogram.

    PubMed

    Moulki, Naeem; Kealhofer, Jessica V; Benditt, David G; Gravely, Amy; Vakil, Kairav; Garcia, Santiago; Adabag, Selcuk

    2018-06-16

    Bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on the electrocardiogram (ECG) have been associated with complete heart block and sudden cardiac death. We sought to determine if cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) improve survival in these patients. We assessed survival in relation to CIED status among 636 consecutive patients with bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on the ECG. In survival analyses, CIED was considered as a time-varying covariate. Average age was 76 ± 9 years, and 99% of the patients were men. A total of 167 (26%) underwent CIED (127 pacemaker only) implantation at baseline (n = 23) or during follow-up (n = 144). During 5.4 ± 3.8 years of follow-up, 83 (13%) patients developed complete or high-degree atrioventricular block and 375 (59%) died. Patients with a CIED had a longer survival compared to those without a CIED in the traditional, static analysis (log-rank p < 0.0001) but not when CIED was considered as a time-varying covariate (log-rank p = 0.76). In the multivariable model, patients with a CIED had a 34% lower risk of death (hazard ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.83; p = 0.001) than those without CIED in the traditional analysis but not in the time-varying covariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.38; p = 0.76). Results did not change in the subgroup with a pacemaker only. Bifascicular block and prolonged PR interval on ECG are associated with a high incidence of complete atrioventricular block and mortality. However, CIED implantation does not have a significant influence on survival when time-varying nature of CIED implantation is considered.

  11. The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2012-03-01

    Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried

  12. Prevalence and associations of retinal vein occlusions: the Central India Eye and Medical Study.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Jost B; Nangia, Vinay; Khare, Anshu; Sinha, Ajit; Lambat, Sarang

    2013-01-01

    To determine the prevalence of retinal vein occlusions (RVOs) in rural central India. The population-based Central India Eye and Medical Study was performed in rural central India and included 4,711 subjects (30 years and older). Using fundus photographs, we assessed the prevalence of branch retinal vein occlusions and central retinal vein occlusions. An RVO was detected in 38 eyes (0.42 ± 0.07%; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.56) of 35 subjects (0.76 ± 0.13%; 95% confidence interval: 0.50-1.01). Prevalence of branch retinal vein occlusions was 0.66% ± 0.12% per subject (95% confidence interval: 0.42%-0.90%) and of central retinal vein occlusions was 0.11% ± 0.05% per subject (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.21%). In binary logistic analysis, presence of RVOs was associated with higher age (P = 0.007), systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), blood concentration of urea (P = 0.02), and narrower anterior chamber angle (P < 0.03). The RVO prevalence was not significantly (all Ps > 0.10) associated with body mass index; blood concentrations of glucose, cholesterol, high-density lipoproteins, and creatinine; presence of diabetes mellitus, tuberculosis and malaria; nutritional parameters; alcohol consumption; refractive error; and optic disk size. The age-specific prevalence rates of RVOs were 0.18% ± 0.13%, 0.29% ± 0.15%, 0.89% ± 0.34%, 1.07% ± 0.36%, 2.72% ± 0.85%, and 3.64% ± 2.55%, respectively, for decadal age groups. In two (5%) eyes, RVO had caused low vision (visual acuity <20/60 and ≥20/400). In the rural agrarian low-income population of Central India, RVOs were detected in 0.8% of adults, with branch retinal vein occlusions being approximately seven times more common than central retinal vein occlusions. Main associated factors were higher age, blood pressure, urea blood concentration, and narrow chamber angle. RVOs were no major reason for visual impairment.

  13. Pigeons' Choices between Fixed-Interval and Random-Interval Schedules: Utility of Variability?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrzejewski, Matthew E.; Cardinal, Claudia D.; Field, Douglas P.; Flannery, Barbara A.; Johnson, Michael; Bailey, Kathleen; Hineline, Philip N.

    2005-01-01

    Pigeons' choosing between fixed-interval and random-interval schedules of reinforcement was investigated in three experiments using a discrete-trial procedure. In all three experiments, the random-interval schedule was generated by sampling a probability distribution at an interval (and in multiples of the interval) equal to that of the…

  14. Intuitive Feelings of Warmth and Confidence in Insight and Noninsight Problem Solving of Magic Tricks.

    PubMed

    Hedne, Mikael R; Norman, Elisabeth; Metcalfe, Janet

    2016-01-01

    The focus of the current study is on intuitive feelings of insight during problem solving and the extent to which such feelings are predictive of successful problem solving. We report the results from an experiment (N = 51) that applied a procedure where the to-be-solved problems were 32 short (15 s) video recordings of magic tricks. The procedure included metacognitive ratings similar to the "warmth ratings" previously used by Metcalfe and colleagues, as well as confidence ratings. At regular intervals during problem solving, participants indicated the perceived closeness to the correct solution. Participants also indicated directly whether each problem was solved by insight or not. Problems that people claimed were solved by insight were characterized by higher accuracy and higher confidence than noninsight solutions. There was no difference between the two types of solution in warmth ratings, however. Confidence ratings were more strongly associated with solution accuracy for noninsight than insight trials. Moreover, for insight trials the participants were more likely to repeat their incorrect solutions on a subsequent recognition test. The results have implications for understanding people's metacognitive awareness of the cognitive processes involved in problem solving. They also have general implications for our understanding of how intuition and insight are related.

  15. Intuitive Feelings of Warmth and Confidence in Insight and Noninsight Problem Solving of Magic Tricks

    PubMed Central

    Hedne, Mikael R.; Norman, Elisabeth; Metcalfe, Janet

    2016-01-01

    The focus of the current study is on intuitive feelings of insight during problem solving and the extent to which such feelings are predictive of successful problem solving. We report the results from an experiment (N = 51) that applied a procedure where the to-be-solved problems were 32 short (15 s) video recordings of magic tricks. The procedure included metacognitive ratings similar to the “warmth ratings” previously used by Metcalfe and colleagues, as well as confidence ratings. At regular intervals during problem solving, participants indicated the perceived closeness to the correct solution. Participants also indicated directly whether each problem was solved by insight or not. Problems that people claimed were solved by insight were characterized by higher accuracy and higher confidence than noninsight solutions. There was no difference between the two types of solution in warmth ratings, however. Confidence ratings were more strongly associated with solution accuracy for noninsight than insight trials. Moreover, for insight trials the participants were more likely to repeat their incorrect solutions on a subsequent recognition test. The results have implications for understanding people's metacognitive awareness of the cognitive processes involved in problem solving. They also have general implications for our understanding of how intuition and insight are related. PMID:27630598

  16. Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-11-01

    People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Bandwidth-narrowed Bragg gratings inscribed in double-cladding fiber by femtosecond laser.

    PubMed

    Shi, Jiawei; Li, Yuhua; Liu, Shuhui; Wang, Haiyan; Liu, Ningliang; Lu, Peixiang

    2011-01-31

    Bragg gratings with the bandwidth(FWHM) narrowed up to 79 pm were inscribed in double-cladding fiber with femtosecond radiation and a phase mask followed by an annealing treatment. With the annealing temperature below a critical value, the bandwidth of Bragg gratings induced by Type I-IR and Type II-IR index change was narrowed without the reduction of reflectivity. The bandwidth narrowing is due to the profile transformation of the refractive index modulation caused by the annealing treatment. This mechanism was verified by comparing bandwidth narrowing processes of FBGs written with different power densities.

  18. 3. Photocopied July 1971 from Photo 741, Jordan Narrows Folder ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    3. Photocopied July 1971 from Photo 741, Jordan Narrows Folder #1, Engineering Department, Utah Power and Light Co., Salt Lake City, Utah. INTERIOR VIEW, JULY 2, 1909. - Salt Lake City Water & Electrical Power Company, Jordan Narrows Hydroelectric Plant, Jordan River, Riverton, Salt Lake County, UT

  19. Reconditioning of Cassini Narrow-Angle Camera

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2002-07-23

    These five images of single stars, taken at different times with the narrow-angle camera on NASA Cassini spacecraft, show the effects of haze collecting on the camera optics, then successful removal of the haze by warming treatments.

  20. Effect of High Intensity Interval Training on Cardiac Function in Children with Obesity: A Randomised Controlled Trial.

    PubMed

    Ingul, Charlotte B; Dias, Katrin A; Tjonna, Arnt E; Follestad, Turid; Hosseini, Mansoureh S; Timilsina, Anita S; Hollekim-Strand, Siri M; Ro, Torstein B; Davies, Peter S W; Cain, Peter A; Leong, Gary M; Coombes, Jeff S

    2018-02-13

    High intensity interval training (HIIT) confers superior cardiovascular health benefits to moderate intensity continuous training (MICT) in adults and may be efficacious for improving diminished cardiac function in obese children. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of HIIT, MICT and nutrition advice interventions on resting left ventricular (LV) peak systolic tissue velocity (S') in obese children. Ninety-nine obese children were randomised into one of three 12-week interventions, 1) HIIT [n = 33, 4 × 4 min bouts at 85-95% maximum heart rate (HR max ), 3 times/week] and nutrition advice, 2) MICT [n = 32, 44 min at 60-70% HR max , 3 times/week] and nutrition advice, and 3) nutrition advice only (nutrition) [n = 34]. Twelve weeks of HIIT and MICT were equally efficacious, but superior to nutrition, for normalising resting LV S' in children with obesity (estimated mean difference 1.0 cm/s, 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.6 cm/s, P < 0.001; estimated mean difference 0.7 cm/s, 95% confidence interval 0.2 to 1.3 cm/s, P = 0.010, respectively). Twelve weeks of HIIT and MICT were superior to nutrition advice only for improving resting LV systolic function in obese children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Impact of Increasing Inter-pregnancy Interval on Maternal and Infant Health

    PubMed Central

    Wendt, Amanda; Gibbs, Cassandra M.; Peters, Stacey; Hogue, Carol J.

    2015-01-01

    Short inter-pregnancy intervals (IPIs) have been associated with adverse maternal and infant health outcomes in the literature. However, many studies in this area have been lacking in quality and appropriate control for confounders known to be associated with both short IPIs and poor outcomes. The objective of this systematic review was to assess this relationship using more rigorous criteria, based on GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) methodology. We found too few higher-quality studies of the impact of IPIs (measured as the time between the birth of a previous child and conception of the next child) on maternal health to reach conclusions about maternal nutrition, morbidity or mortality. However, the evidence for infant effects justified meta-analyses. We found significant impacts of short IPIs for extreme preterm birth [<6 m adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40, 1.78], 6–11 m aOR: 1.23 [1.03, 1.46

  2. 1. Photocopied July 1971 from Photo 745, Jordan Narrows Folder ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. Photocopied July 1971 from Photo 745, Jordan Narrows Folder #1, Engineering Department, Utah Power and Light Co., Salt Lake City, Utah. JORDAN STATION, JULY 2, 1909. GENERAL VIEW. - Salt Lake City Water & Electrical Power Company, Jordan Narrows Hydroelectric Plant, Jordan River, Riverton, Salt Lake County, UT

  3. Decreased airway narrowing and smooth muscle contraction in hyperresponsive pigs.

    PubMed

    Turner, Debra J; Noble, Peter B; Lucas, Matthew P; Mitchell, Howard W

    2002-10-01

    Increased smooth muscle contractility or reduced smooth muscle mechanical loads could account for the excessive airway narrowing and hyperresponsiveness seen in asthma. These mechanisms were investigated by using an allergen-induced porcine model of airway hyperresponsiveness. Airway narrowing to electric field stimulation was measured in isolated bronchial segments, over a range of transmural pressures (0-20 cmH(2)O). Contractile responses to ACh were measured in bronchial segments and in isolated tracheal smooth muscle strips isolated from control and test (ovalbumin sensitized and challenged) pigs. Test airways narrowed less than controls (P < 0.0001). Test pigs showed reduced contractility to ACh, both in isolated bronchi (P < 0.01) and smooth muscle strips (P < 0.01). Thus isolated airways from pigs exhibiting airway hyperresponsiveness in vivo are hyporesponsive in vitro. The decreased narrowing in bronchi from hyperresponsive pigs may be related to decreased smooth muscle contractility. These data suggest that mechanisms external to the airway wall may be important to the hyperresponsive nature of sensitized lungs.

  4. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  5. Photovoltaic measurement of bandgap narrowing in moderately doped silicon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    del Alamo, Jesus A.; Swanson, Richard M.; Lietoila, Arto

    1983-05-01

    Solar cells have been fabricated on n-type and p-type moderately doped Si. The shrinkage of the Si bandgap has been obtained by measuring the internal quantum efficiency in the near infrared spectrum ( hv = 1.00-1.25 eV) around the fundamental absorption edge. The results agree with previous optical measurements of bandgap narrowing in Si. It is postulated that this optically-determined bandgap narrowing is the rigid shrinkage of the forbidden gap due to many-body effects. The "device bandgap narrowing" obtained by measuring the pn product in bipolar devices leads to discrepant values because (i) the density of states in the conduction and valence band is modified due to the potential fluctuations originated in the variations in local impurity density, and (ii) the influence of Fermi-Dirac statistics.

  6. Detection of abnormal item based on time intervals for recommender systems.

    PubMed

    Gao, Min; Yuan, Quan; Ling, Bin; Xiong, Qingyu

    2014-01-01

    With the rapid development of e-business, personalized recommendation has become core competence for enterprises to gain profits and improve customer satisfaction. Although collaborative filtering is the most successful approach for building a recommender system, it suffers from "shilling" attacks. In recent years, the research on shilling attacks has been greatly improved. However, the approaches suffer from serious problem in attack model dependency and high computational cost. To solve the problem, an approach for the detection of abnormal item is proposed in this paper. In the paper, two common features of all attack models are analyzed at first. A revised bottom-up discretized approach is then proposed based on time intervals and the features for the detection. The distributions of ratings in different time intervals are compared to detect anomaly based on the calculation of chi square distribution (χ(2)). We evaluated our approach on four types of items which are defined according to the life cycles of these items. The experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a high detection rate with low computational cost when the number of attack profiles is more than 15. It improves the efficiency in shilling attacks detection by narrowing down the suspicious users.

  7. The effects of narrow and elevated path walking on aperture crossing.

    PubMed

    Hackney, Amy L; Cinelli, Michael E; Denomme, Luke T; Frank, James S

    2015-06-01

    The study investigated the impact that action capabilities have on identifying possibilities for action, particularly how postural threat influences the passability of apertures. To do this, the ability to maintain balance was challenged by manipulating the level of postural threat while walking. First, participants walked along a 7m path and passed through two vertical obstacles spaced 1.1-1.5×the shoulder width apart during normal walking. Next, postural threat was manipulated by having participants complete the task either walking on a narrow, ground level path or on an elevated/narrow path. Despite a decrease in walking speed as well as an increase in trunk sway in both the narrow and elevated/narrow walking conditions, the passability of apertures was only affected when the consequence of instability was greatest. In the elevated/narrow walking condition, individuals maintained a larger critical point (rotated their shoulders for larger aperture widths) compared to normal walking. However, this effect was not observed for the narrow path walking suggesting that the level of postural threat was not enough to impose similar changes to the critical point. Therefore, it appears that manipulating action capabilities by increasing postural threat does indeed influence aperture crossing behavior, however the consequence associated with instability must be high before both gait characteristics and the critical point are affected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality

    PubMed Central

    Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

    2015-01-01

    intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18–2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Conclusions Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality. PMID:26562139

  9. Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality.

    PubMed

    Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

    2015-01-01

    regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18-2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality.

  10. Perfect narrow band absorber for sensing applications.

    PubMed

    Luo, Shiwen; Zhao, Jun; Zuo, Duluo; Wang, Xinbing

    2016-05-02

    We design and numerically investigate a perfect narrow band absorber based on a metal-metal-dielectric-metal structure which consists of periodic metallic nanoribbon arrays. The absorber presents an ultra narrow absorption band of 1.11 nm with a nearly perfect absorption of over 99.9% in the infrared region. For oblique incidence, the absorber shows an absorption more than 95% for a wide range of incident angles from 0 to 50°. Structure parameters to the influence of the performance are investigated. The structure shows high sensing performance with a high sensitivity of 1170 nm/RIU and a large figure of merit of 1054. The proposed structure has great potential as a biosensor.

  11. Narrow Band Imaging Enhances the Detection Rate of Penetration and Aspiration in FEES.

    PubMed

    Nienstedt, Julie C; Müller, Frank; Nießen, Almut; Fleischer, Susanne; Koseki, Jana-Christiane; Flügel, Till; Pflug, Christina

    2017-06-01

    Narrow band imaging (NBI) is widely used in gastrointestinal, laryngeal, and urological endoscopy. Its original purpose was to visualize vessels and epithelial irregularities. Based on our observation that adding NBI to common white light (WL) improves the contrast of the test bolus in fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES), we now investigated the potential value of NBI in swallowing disorders. 148 FEES images were analyzed from 74 consecutive patients with swallowing disorders, including 74 with and 74 without NBI. All images were evaluated by four dysphagia specialists. Findings were classified according to Rosenbek's penetration-aspiration scale modified for evaluating these FEES images. Intra- and inter-rater reliability was determined as well as observer confidence. A better visualization of the bolus is the main advantage of NBI in FEES. This generally leads to sharper optical contrasts and better detection of small bolus quantities. Accordingly, NBI enhances the detection rate of penetration and aspiration. On average, identification of laryngeal penetration increased from 40 to 73% and of aspiration from 13 to 24% (each p < 0.01) of patients. In contrast to WL alone, the use of NBI also markedly increased the inter- and intra-rater reliability (p < 0.01) and the rating confidence of all experts (p < 0.05). NBI is an easy and cost-effective tool simplifying dysphagia evaluation and shortening FEES evaluation time. It leads to a markedly higher detection rate of pathological findings. The significantly better intra- and inter-rater reliability argues further for a better overall reproducibly of FEES interpretation.

  12. Optimal Wind Power Uncertainty Intervals for Electricity Market Operation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Ying; Zhou, Zhi; Botterud, Audun

    It is important to select an appropriate uncertainty level of the wind power forecast for power system scheduling and electricity market operation. Traditional methods hedge against a predefined level of wind power uncertainty, such as a specific confidence interval or uncertainty set, which leaves the questions of how to best select the appropriate uncertainty levels. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a model to optimize the forecast uncertainty intervals of wind power for power system scheduling problems, with the aim of achieving the best trade-off between economics and reliability. Then we reformulate and linearize the models into a mixedmore » integer linear programming (MILP) without strong assumptions on the shape of the probability distribution. In order to invest the impacts on cost, reliability, and prices in a electricity market, we apply the proposed model on a twosettlement electricity market based on a six-bus test system and on a power system representing the U.S. state of Illinois. The results show that the proposed method can not only help to balance the economics and reliability of the power system scheduling, but also help to stabilize the energy prices in electricity market operation.« less

  13. The 2009 Retirement Confidence Survey: economy drives confidence to record lows; many looking to work longer.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2009-04-01

    RECORD LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS: Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007). THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, COST OF LIVING ARE THE BIG CONCERNS: Not surprisingly, workers overall who have lost confidence over the past year about affording a comfortable retirement most often cite the recent economic uncertainty, inflation, and the cost of living as primary factors. In addition, certain negative experiences, such as job loss or a pay cut, loss of retirement savings, or an increase in debt, almost always contribute to loss of confidence among those who experience them. RETIREMENT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED: Workers apparently expect to work longer because of the economic downturn: 28 percent of workers in the 2009 RCS say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. Of those, the vast majority (89 percent) say that they have postponed retirement with the intention of increasing their financial security. Nevertheless, the median (mid-point) worker expects to retire at age 65, with 21 percent planning to push on into their 70s. The median retiree actually retired at age 62, and 47 percent of retirees say they retired sooner than planned. WORKING IN RETIREMENT: More workers are also planning to supplement their income in retirement by working for pay. The percentage of workers planning to work after they retire has increased to 72 percent in 2009 (up from 66 percent in 2007). This compares with 34 percent of retirees who report they actually worked for pay at some time during their retirement. GREATER WORRY ABOUT BASIC AND HEALTH EXPENSES: Workers who say they very confident in

  14. The Role of Defensive Confidence in Preference for Proattitudinal Information: How Believing That One Is Strong Can Sometimes Be a Defensive Weakness

    PubMed Central

    Albarracín, Dolores; Mitchell, Amy L.

    2016-01-01

    This series of studies identified individuals who chronically believe that they can successfully defend their attitudes from external attack and investigated the consequences of this individual difference for selective exposure to attitude-incongruent information and, ultimately, attitude change. Studies 1 and 2 validated a measure of defensive confidence as an individual difference that is unidimensional, distinct from other personality measures, reliable over a 2-week interval, and organized as a trait that generalizes across various personal and social issues. Studies 3 and 4 provided evidence that defensive confidence decreases preference for proattitudinal information, therefore inducing greater reception of counterattitudinal materials. Study 5 demonstrated that people who are high in defensive confidence are more likely to change their attitudes as a result of exposure to counterattitudinal information and examined the perceptions that mediate this important phenomenon. PMID:15536240

  15. Haematological and biochemical reference intervals for free-ranging brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Sweden

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Establishment of haematological and biochemical reference intervals is important to assess health of animals on individual and population level. Reference intervals for 13 haematological and 34 biochemical variables were established based on 88 apparently healthy free-ranging brown bears (39 males and 49 females) in Sweden. The animals were chemically immobilised by darting from a helicopter with a combination of medetomidine, tiletamine and zolazepam in April and May 2006–2012 in the county of Dalarna, Sweden. Venous blood samples were collected during anaesthesia for radio collaring and marking for ecological studies. For each of the variables, the reference interval was described based on the 95% confidence interval, and differences due to host characteristics sex and age were included if detected. To our knowledge, this is the first report of reference intervals for free-ranging brown bears in Sweden. Results The following variables were not affected by host characteristics: red blood cell, white blood cell, monocyte and platelet count, alanine transaminase, amylase, bilirubin, free fatty acids, glucose, calcium, chloride, potassium, and cortisol. Age differences were seen for the majority of the haematological variables, whereas sex influenced only mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, aspartate aminotransferase, lipase, lactate dehydrogenase, β-globulin, bile acids, triglycerides and sodium. Conclusions The biochemical and haematological reference intervals provided and the differences due to host factors age and gender can be useful for evaluation of health status in free-ranging European brown bears. PMID:25139149

  16. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  17. How Much Confidence Can We Have in EU-SILC? Complex Sample Designs and the Standard Error of the Europe 2020 Poverty Indicators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goedeme, Tim

    2013-01-01

    If estimates are based on samples, they should be accompanied by appropriate standard errors and confidence intervals. This is true for scientific research in general, and is even more important if estimates are used to inform and evaluate policy measures such as those aimed at attaining the Europe 2020 poverty reduction target. In this article I…

  18. Worse than enemies. The CEO's destructive confidant.

    PubMed

    Sulkowicz, Kerry J

    2004-02-01

    The CEO is often the most isolated and protected employee in the organization. Few leaders, even veteran CEOs, can do the job without talking to someone about their experiences, which is why most develop a close relationship with a trusted colleague, a confidant to whom they can tell their thoughts and fears. In his work with leaders, the author has found that many CEO-confidant relationships function very well. The confidants keep their leaders' best interests at heart. They derive their gratification vicariously, through the help they provide rather than through any personal gain, and they are usually quite aware that a person in their position can potentially abuse access to the CEO's innermost secrets. Unfortunately, almost as many confidants will end up hurting, undermining, or otherwise exploiting CEOs when the executives are at their most vulnerable. These confidants rarely make the headlines, but behind the scenes they do enormous damage to the CEO and to the organization as a whole. What's more, the leader is often the last one to know when or how the confidant relationship became toxic. The author has identified three types of destructive confidants. The reflector mirrors the CEO, constantly reassuring him that he is the "fairest CEO of them all." The insulator buffers the CEO from the organization, preventing critical information from getting in or out. And the usurper cunningly ingratiates himself with the CEO in a desperate bid for power. This article explores how the CEO-confidant relationship plays out with each type of adviser and suggests ways CEOs can avoid these destructive relationships.

  19. Influence of the narrow {111} planes on axial and planar ion channeling.

    PubMed

    Motapothula, M; Dang, Z Y; Venkatesan, T; Breese, M B H; Rana, M A; Osman, A

    2012-05-11

    We report channeling patterns where clearly resolved effects of the narrow {111} planes are observed in axial and planar alignments for 2 MeV protons passing through a 55 nm [001] silicon membrane. At certain axes, such as <213> and <314>, the offset in atomic rows forming the narrow {111} planes results in shielding from the large potential at the wide {111} planes, producing a region of shallow, asymmetric potential from which axial channeling patterns have no plane of symmetry. At small tilts from such axes, different behavior is observed from the wide and narrow {111} planes. At planar alignment, distinctive channeling effects due to the narrow planes are observed. As a consequence of the shallow potential well at the narrow planes, incident protons suffer dechanneled trajectories which are excluded from channeling within the wide planes, resulting in an anomalously large scattered beam at {111} alignment.

  20. How to Fire a President: Voting "No Confidence" with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Peter

    2009-01-01

    College faculties often use votes of "no confidence" to try to push out the leaders of their institutions. Many do so, however, without giving much thought to what such a vote actually means, whether they are using it appropriately, or how it will affect their campus--and their own future. Mae Kuykendall, a professor of law at Michigan State…

  1. Programming with Intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsakis, Nicholas D.; Gross, Thomas R.

    Intervals are a new, higher-level primitive for parallel programming with which programmers directly construct the program schedule. Programs using intervals can be statically analyzed to ensure that they do not deadlock or contain data races. In this paper, we demonstrate the flexibility of intervals by showing how to use them to emulate common parallel control-flow constructs like barriers and signals, as well as higher-level patterns such as bounded-buffer producer-consumer. We have implemented intervals as a publicly available library for Java and Scala.

  2. Narrow Angle movie

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1999-01-01

    This brief three-frame movie of the Moon was made from three Cassini narrow-angle images as the spacecraft passed by the Moon on the way to its closest approach with Earth on August 17, 1999. The purpose of this particular set of images was to calibrate the spectral response of the narrow-angle camera and to test its 'on-chip summing mode' data compression technique in flight. From left to right, they show the Moon in the green, blue and ultraviolet regions of the spectrum in 40, 60 and 80 millisecond exposures, respectively. All three images have been scaled so that the brightness of Crisium basin, the dark circular region in the upper right, is the same in each image. The spatial scale in the blue and ultraviolet images is 1.4 miles per pixel (2.3 kilometers). The original scale in the green image (which was captured in the usual manner and then reduced in size by 2x2 pixel summing within the camera system) was 2.8 miles per pixel (4.6 kilometers). It has been enlarged for display to the same scale as the other two. The imaging data were processed and released by the Cassini Imaging Central Laboratory for Operations (CICLOPS) at the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, Tucson, AZ.

    Photo Credit: NASA/JPL/Cassini Imaging Team/University of Arizona

    Cassini, launched in 1997, is a joint mission of NASA, the European Space Agency and Italian Space Agency. The mission is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington DC. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.

  3. Narrowing the Gap in Outcomes: Early Years (0-5 Years)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Springate, Ian; Atkinson, Mary; Straw, Suzanne; Lamont, Emily; Grayson, Hilary

    2008-01-01

    This report was commissioned by the Local Government Association (LGA) to inform the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) and LGA work on "Narrowing the Gap." It focuses on early years' provision and presents findings from a review of the best evidence on narrowing the gap in outcomes across the five Every Child Matters…

  4. Very narrow band model calculations of atmospheric fluxes and cooling rates

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bernstein, L.S.; Berk, A.; Acharya, P.K.

    1996-10-15

    A new very narrow band model (VNBM) approach has been developed and incorporated into the MODTRAN atmospheric transmittance-radiance code. The VNBM includes a computational spectral resolution of 1 cm{sup {minus}1}, a single-line Voigt equivalent width formalism that is based on the Rodgers-Williams approximation and accounts for the finite spectral width of the interval, explicit consideration of line tails, a statistical line overlap correction, a new sublayer integration approach that treats the effect of the sublayer temperature gradient on the path radiance, and the Curtis-Godson (CG) approximation for inhomogeneous paths. A modified procedure for determining the line density parameter 1/d ismore » introduced, which reduces its magnitude. This results in a partial correction of the VNBM tendency to overestimate the interval equivalent widths. The standard two parameter CG approximation is used for H{sub 2}O and CO{sub 2}, while the Goody three parameter CG approximation is used for O{sub 3}. Atmospheric flux and cooling rate predictions using a research version of MODTRAN, MODR, are presented for H{sub 2}O (with and without the continuum), CO{sub 2}, and O{sub 3} for several model atmospheres. The effect of doubling the CO{sub 2} concentration is also considered. These calculations are compared to line-by-line (LBL) model calculations using the AER, GLA, GFDL, and GISS codes. The MODR predictions fall within the spread of the LBL results. The effects of decreasing the band model spectral resolution are illustrated using CO{sub 2} cooling rate and flux calculations. 36 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab.« less

  5. Audit of lymphadenectomy in lung cancer resections using a specimen collection kit and checklist.

    PubMed

    Osarogiagbon, Raymond U; Sareen, Srishti; Eke, Ransome; Yu, Xinhua; McHugh, Laura M; Kernstine, Kemp H; Putnam, Joe B; Robbins, Edward T

    2015-02-01

    Audits of operative summaries and pathology reports reveal wide discordance in identifying the extent of lymphadenectomy performed (the communication gap). We tested the ability of a prelabeled lymph node specimen collection kit and checklist to narrow the communication gap between operating surgeons, pathologists, and auditors of surgeons' operation notes. We conducted a prospective single cohort study of lung cancer resections performed with a lymph node collection kit from November 2010 to January 2013. We used the kappa statistic to compare surgeon claims on a checklist of lymph node stations harvested intraoperatively with pathology reports and an independent audit of surgeons' operative summaries. Lymph node collection procedures were classified into four groups based on the anatomic origin of resected lymph nodes: mediastinal lymph node dissection, systematic sampling, random sampling, and no sampling. From the pathology reports, 73% of 160 resections had a mediastinal lymph node dissection or systematic sampling procedure, 27% had random sampling. The concordance with surgeon claims was 80% (kappa statistic 0.69, 95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.79). Concordance between independent audits of the operation notes and either the pathology report (kappa 0.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.04 to 0.23) or surgeon claims (kappa 0.09, 95% confidence interval: 0.03 to 0.22) was poor. A prelabeled specimen collection kit and checklist significantly narrowed the communication gap between surgeons and pathologists in identifying the extent of lymphadenectomy. Audit of surgeons' operation notes did not accurately reflect the procedure performed, bringing its value for quality improvement work into question. Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

    2015-10-07

    Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Spectrally narrowed lasing of a self-injection KrF excimer laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimada, Yasuhiro; Wani, Koichi; Miki, Tadaaki; Kawahara, Hidehito; Mimasu, Mutsumi; Ogata, Yoshiro

    1990-08-01

    Spectrally nantwed lasing of a KrF excimer laser has teen ahieved by a self-injection technique using abeam splitter for power extraction aixi intravity etalons for spectral-narrowing. The laser cavity is divithi into an amplifying branch aix! a spectralnarrowing branch. The spectral bandwidth was narrowed to <3pm FWHM with air-sed etalons placed in the spectral-narrowing branch. A laser propagation model was intrOdUced for describing the laser intensity traveling in the laser cavity. The calculated intensityincident onthe intracavityetalons wassmaller thanthat in theconventional Fabry-Perotcavity withplane-parallel mirrors.

  8. Validation of the Vaccination Confidence Scale: A brief measure to identify parents at risk for refusing adolescent vaccines

    PubMed Central

    Reiter, Paul L.; Magnus, Brooke E.; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Dempsey, Amanda F.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To support efforts to address vaccine hesitancy, we sought to validate a brief measure of vaccination confidence using a large, nationally representative sample of parents. Methods We analyzed weighted data from 9,018 parents who completed the 2010 National Immunization Survey-Teen, an annual, population-based telephone survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 13- to 17-year-old child in their households for vaccines including tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), meningococcal, and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. For each vaccine, separate logistic regression models assessed associations between parents’ mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. We repeated analyses for the scale’s 4-item short form. Results One quarter of parents (24%) reported refusal of any vaccine, with refusal of specific vaccines ranging from 21% for HPV to 2% for Tdap. Using the full 8-item scale, vaccination confidence was negatively associated with measures of vaccine refusal and positively associated with measures of vaccination status. For example, refusal of any vaccine was more common among parents whose scale scores were medium (odds ratio [OR] = 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75–2.47) or low (OR = 4.61, 95% CI, 3.51–6.05) versus high. For the 4-item short form, scores were also consistently associated with vaccine refusal and vaccination status. Vaccination confidence was inconsistently associated with vaccine delay. Conclusions The Vaccination Confidence Scale shows promise as a tool for identifying parents at risk for refusing adolescent vaccines. The scale’s short form appears to offer comparable performance. PMID:26300368

  9. Estimating the duration of geologic intervals from a small number of age determinations: A challenge common to petrology and paleobiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glazner, Allen F.; Sadler, Peter M.

    2016-12-01

    The duration of a geologic interval, such as the time over which a given volume of magma accumulated to form a pluton, or the lifespan of a large igneous province, is commonly determined from a relatively small number of geochronologic determinations (e.g., 4-10) within that interval. Such sample sets can underestimate the true length of the interval by a significant amount. For example, the average interval determined from a sample of size n = 5, drawn from a uniform random distribution, will underestimate the true interval by 50%. Even for n = 10, the average sample only captures ˜80% of the interval. If the underlying distribution is known then a correction factor can be determined from theory or Monte Carlo analysis; for a uniform random distribution, this factor is n+1n-1. Systematic undersampling of interval lengths can have a large effect on calculated magma fluxes in plutonic systems. The problem is analogous to determining the duration of an extinct species from its fossil occurrences. Confidence interval statistics developed for species origination and extinction times are applicable to the onset and cessation of magmatic events.

  10. Frequency and Determinants of a Short-Interval Follow-up Recommendation After an Abnormal Screening Mammogram.

    PubMed

    Pelletier, Eric; Daigle, Jean-Marc; Defay, Fannie; Major, Diane; Guertin, Marie-Hélène; Brisson, Jacques

    2016-11-01

    After imaging assessment of an abnormal screening mammogram, a follow-up examination 6 months later is recommended to some women. Our aim was to identify which characteristics of lesions, women, and physicians are associated to such short-interval follow-up recommendation in the Quebec Breast Cancer Screening Program. Between 1998 and 2008, 1,839,396 screening mammograms were performed and a total of 114,781 abnormal screens were assessed by imaging only. Multivariate analysis was done with multilevel Poisson regression models with robust variance and generalized linear mixed models. A short-interval follow-up was recommended in 26.7% of assessments with imaging only, representing 2.3% of all screens. Case-mix adjusted proportion of short-interval follow-up recommendations varied substantially across physicians (range: 4%-64%). Radiologists with high recall rates (≥15%) had a high proportion of short-interval follow-up recommendation (risk ratio: 1.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.35-2.45) compared to radiologists with low recall rates (<5%). The adjusted proportion of short-interval follow-up was high (22.8%) even when a previous mammogram was usually available. Short-interval follow-up recommendation at assessment is frequent in this Canadian screening program, even when a previous mammogram is available. Characteristics related to radiologists appear to be key determinants of short-interval follow-up recommendation, rather than characteristics of lesions or patient mix. Given that it can cause anxiety to women and adds pressure on the health system, it appears important to record and report short-interval follow-up and to identify ways to reduce its frequency. Short-interval follow-up recommendations should be considered when assessing the burden of mammography screening. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Association of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

    1999-03-01

    The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

  12. Transitioning to a narrow path: the impact of fear of falling in older adults.

    PubMed

    Dunlap, Pamela; Perera, Subashan; VanSwearingen, Jessie M; Wert, David; Brach, Jennifer S

    2012-01-01

    Everyday ambulation requires navigation of variable terrain, transitions from wide to narrow pathways, and avoiding obstacles. While the effect of age on the transition to a narrow path has been examined briefly, little is known about the impact of fear of falling on gait during the transition to a narrow path. The purpose was to examine the effect of age and fear of falling on gait during transition to a narrow path. In 31 young, mean age=25.3 years, and 30 older adults, mean age=79.6 years, step length, step time, step width and gait speed were examined during usual and transition to narrow pathway using an instrumented walkway. During the transition to narrow walk condition, fearful older adults compared to young had a wider step width (0.06 m vs 0.04 m) prior to the narrow path and took shorter steps (0.53 m vs 0.72 m; p<0.001). Compared to non-fearful older adults, fearful older adults walked slower and took shorter steps during narrow path walking (gait speed: 1.1m/s vs 0.82 m/s; p=0.01; step length: 0.60 m vs 0.47 m; p=0.03). In young and non-fearful older adults narrow path gait was similar to usual gait. Whereas older adults who were fearful, walked slower (0.82 m/s vs 0.91 m/s; p=0.001) and took shorter steps (0.44 m vs 0.53 m; p=0.004) during narrow path walking compared to usual walking. Changes in gait characteristics with transitioning to a narrow pathway were greater for fear of falling than for age. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A narrow band pattern-matching model of vowel perception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillenbrand, James M.; Houde, Robert A.

    2003-02-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose and evaluate a new model of vowel perception which assumes that vowel identity is recognized by a template-matching process involving the comparison of narrow band input spectra with a set of smoothed spectral-shape templates that are learned through ordinary exposure to speech. In the present simulation of this process, the input spectra are computed over a sufficiently long window to resolve individual harmonics of voiced speech. Prior to template creation and pattern matching, the narrow band spectra are amplitude equalized by a spectrum-level normalization process, and the information-bearing spectral peaks are enhanced by a ``flooring'' procedure that zeroes out spectral values below a threshold function consisting of a center-weighted running average of spectral amplitudes. Templates for each vowel category are created simply by averaging the narrow band spectra of like vowels spoken by a panel of talkers. In the present implementation, separate templates are used for men, women, and children. The pattern matching is implemented with a simple city-block distance measure given by the sum of the channel-by-channel differences between the narrow band input spectrum (level-equalized and floored) and each vowel template. Spectral movement is taken into account by computing the distance measure at several points throughout the course of the vowel. The input spectrum is assigned to the vowel template that results in the smallest difference accumulated over the sequence of spectral slices. The model was evaluated using a large database consisting of 12 vowels in /hVd/ context spoken by 45 men, 48 women, and 46 children. The narrow band model classified vowels in this database with a degree of accuracy (91.4%) approaching that of human listeners.

  14. The role of high-resolution endoscopy and narrow-band imaging in the evaluation of upper GI neoplasia in familial adenomatous polyposis.

    PubMed

    Lopez-Ceron, Maria; van den Broek, Frank J C; Mathus-Vliegen, Elisabeth M; Boparai, Karam S; van Eeden, Susanne; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2013-04-01

    The Spigelman classification stratifies cancer risk in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) patients with duodenal adenomatosis. High-resolution endoscopy (HRE) and narrow-band imaging (NBI) may identify lesions at high risk. To compare HRE and NBI for the detection of duodenal and gastric polyps and to characterize duodenal adenomas harboring advanced histology with HRE and NBI. Prospective, nonrandomized, comparative study. Retrospective image evaluation study. Tertiary-care center. Thirty-seven FAP patients undergoing surveillance upper endoscopies. HRE endoscopy was followed by NBI. The number of gastric polyps and Spigelman staging were compared. Duodenal polyp images were systematically reviewed in a learning and validation phase. Number of gastric and duodenal polyps detected by HRE and NBI and prevalence of specific endoscopic features in duodenal adenomas with advanced histology. NBI did not identify additional gastric polyps but detected more duodenal adenomas in 16 examinations, resulting in upgrades of the Spigelman stage in 2 cases (4.4%). Pictures of 168 duodenal adenomas (44% advanced histology) were assessed. In the learning phase, 3 endoscopic features were associated with advanced histology: white color, enlarged villi, and size ≥1 cm. Only size ≥1 cm was confirmed in the validation phase (odds ratio 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-7.4). Nonrandomized study, scant number of high-grade dysplasia adenomas. Inspection with NBI did not lead to a clinically relevant upgrade in the Spigelman classification and did not improve the detection of gastric polyps in comparison with HRE. The only endoscopic feature that predicted advanced histology of a duodenal adenoma was size ≥1 cm. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    PubMed

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  16. System implications of the ambulance arrival-to-patient contact interval on response interval compliance.

    PubMed

    Campbell, J P; Gratton, M C; Salomone, J A; Lindholm, D J; Watson, W A

    1994-01-01

    In some emergency medical services (EMS) system designs, response time intervals are mandated with monetary penalties for noncompliance. These times are set with the goal of providing rapid, definitive patient care. The time interval of vehicle at scene-to-patient access (VSPA) has been measured, but its effect on response time interval compliance has not been determined. To determine the effect of the VSPA interval on the mandated code 1 (< 9 min) and code 2 (< 13 min) response time interval compliance in an urban, public-utility model system. A prospective, observational study used independent third-party riders to collect the VSPA interval for emergency life-threatening (code 1) and emergency nonlife-threatening (code 2) calls. The VSPA interval was added to the 9-1-1 call-to-dispatch and vehicle dispatch-to-scene intervals to determine the total time interval from call received until paramedic access to the patient (9-1-1 call-to-patient access). Compliance with the mandated response time intervals was determined using the traditional time intervals (9-1-1 call-to-scene) plus the VSPA time intervals (9-1-1 call-to-patient access). Chi-square was used to determine statistical significance. Of the 216 observed calls, 198 were matched to the traditional time intervals. Sixty-three were code 1, and 135 were code 2. Of the code 1 calls, 90.5% were compliant using 9-1-1 call-to-scene intervals dropping to 63.5% using 9-1-1 call-to-patient access intervals (p < 0.0005). Of the code 2 calls, 94.1% were compliant using 9-1-1 call-to-scene intervals. Compliance decreased to 83.7% using 9-1-1 call-to-patient access intervals (p = 0.012). The addition of the VSPA interval to the traditional time intervals impacts system response time compliance. Using 9-1-1 call-to-scene compliance as a basis for measuring system performance underestimates the time for the delivery of definitive care. This must be considered when response time interval compliances are defined.

  17. Corrected Confidence Bands for Functional Data Using Principal Components

    PubMed Central

    Goldsmith, J.; Greven, S.; Crainiceanu, C.

    2014-01-01

    Functional principal components (FPC) analysis is widely used to decompose and express functional observations. Curve estimates implicitly condition on basis functions and other quantities derived from FPC decompositions; however these objects are unknown in practice. In this article, we propose a method for obtaining correct curve estimates by accounting for uncertainty in FPC decompositions. Additionally, pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals that account for both model- and decomposition-based variability are constructed. Standard mixed model representations of functional expansions are used to construct curve estimates and variances conditional on a specific decomposition. Iterated expectation and variance formulas combine model-based conditional estimates across the distribution of decompositions. A bootstrap procedure is implemented to understand the uncertainty in principal component decomposition quantities. Our method compares favorably to competing approaches in simulation studies that include both densely and sparsely observed functions. We apply our method to sparse observations of CD4 cell counts and to dense white-matter tract profiles. Code for the analyses and simulations is publicly available, and our method is implemented in the R package refund on CRAN. PMID:23003003

  18. Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

    2016-01-01

    Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

  19. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  20. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    PubMed

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The confidence in health care and social services in northern Sweden--a comparison between reindeer-herding Sami and the non-Sami majority population.

    PubMed

    Daerga, Laila; Sjölander, Per; Jacobsson, Lars; Edin-Liljegren, Anette

    2012-08-01

    To investigate the confidence in primary health care, psychiatry and social services among the reindeer-herding Sami and the non-Sami population of northern Sweden. A semi-randomized, cross-sectional study design comprising 325 reindeer-herding Sami (171 men, 154 women) and a control population of 1,437 non-Sami (684 men, 753 women). A questionnaire on the confidence in primary health care, psychiatry, social services, and work colleagues was distributed to members of reindeer-herding families through the Sami communities and to the control population through the post. The relative risk for poor confidence was analyzed by calculating odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age and level of education. The confidence in primary health care and psychiatry was significantly lower among the reindeer-herding Sami compared with the control group. No differences were found between men and women in the reindeer-herding Sami population. In both the reindeer-herding Sami and the control population, younger people (≤ 48 years) reported significantly lower confidence in primary health care than older individuals (>48 years). A conceivable reason for the poor confidence in health care organizations reported by the reindeer-herding Sami is that they experience health care staff as poorly informed about reindeer husbandry and Sami culture, resulting in unsuitable or unrealistic treatment suggestions. The findings suggest that the poor confidence constitutes a significant obstacle of the reindeer-herding Sami to fully benefit from public health care services.

  2. Interval Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports, Washington, DC.

    Regardless of the type of physical activity used, interval training is simply repeated periods of physical stress interspersed with recovery periods during which activity of a reduced intensity is performed. During the recovery periods, the individual usually keeps moving and does not completely recover before the next exercise interval (e.g.,…

  3. Orders on Intervals Over Partially Ordered Sets: Extending Allen's Algebra and Interval Graph Results

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zapata, Francisco; Kreinovich, Vladik; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-08-01

    To make a decision, we need to compare the values of quantities. In many practical situations, we know the values with interval uncertainty. In such situations, we need to compare intervals. Allen’s algebra describes all possible relations between intervals on the real line, and ordering relations between such intervals are well studied. In this paper, we extend this description to intervals in an arbitrary partially ordered set (poset). In particular, we explicitly describe ordering relations between intervals that generalize relation between points. As auxiliary results, we provide a logical interpretation of the relation between intervals, and extend the results aboutmore » interval graphs to intervals over posets.« less

  4. The extremely narrow-caliber esophagus is a treatment-resistant subphenotype of eosinophilic esophagitis.

    PubMed

    Eluri, Swathi; Runge, Thomas M; Cotton, Cary C; Burk, Caitlin M; Wolf, W Asher; Woosley, John T; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Dellon, Evan S

    2016-06-01

    Some patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) have an extremely narrow esophagus, but the characteristics of this group have not been extensively described. We aimed to characterize the narrow-caliber phenotype of EoE, determine associated risk factors, and identify differences in treatment response in this subgroup of patients. This retrospective cohort study from 2001 to 2014 included subjects with a new diagnosis of EoE per consensus guidelines. Demographic, endoscopic, histologic, and treatment response data were extracted from medical records. An extremely narrow-caliber esophagus was defined when a neonatal endoscope was required to traverse the esophagus due to the inability to pass an adult endoscope. Patients with and without an extremely narrow-caliber esophagus were compared. Multivariable logistical regression was performed to assess treatment outcomes. Of 513 patients with EoE, 46 (9%) had an extremely narrow-caliber esophagus. These patients were older (33 vs 22 years; P < .01), had longer symptom duration (11 vs 3 years; P < .01), more dysphagia (98% vs 66%; P < .01), and food impactions (53% vs 31%; P < .01). Dilation was more common with extreme narrowing (69% vs 17%; P < .01). Patients with a narrow-caliber esophagus were more refractory to steroid treatment, with lower symptom (56% vs 85%), endoscopic (52% vs 76%), and histologic (33% vs 63%) responses (P < .01 for all), and these differences persisted after multivariate analysis. The extremely narrow-caliber esophagus is a more treatment-resistant subphenotype of EoE and is characterized by longer symptom duration and the need for multiple dilations. Recognition of an extremely narrow-caliber esophagus at diagnosis of EoE can provide important prognostic information. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    PubMed

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  6. Measuring the EMS patient access time interval and the impact of responding to high-rise buildings.

    PubMed

    Morrison, Laurie J; Angelini, Mark P; Vermeulen, Marian J; Schwartz, Brian

    2005-01-01

    To measure the patient access time interval and characterize its contribution to the total emergency medical services (EMS) response time interval; to compare the patient access time intervals for patients located three or more floors above ground with those less than three floors above or below ground, and specifically in the apartment subgroup; and to identify barriers that significantly impede EMS access to patients in high-rise apartments. An observational study of all patients treated by an emergency medical technician paramedics (EMT-P) crew was conducted using a trained independent observer to collect time intervals and identify potential barriers to access. Of 118 observed calls, 25 (21%) originated from patients three or more floors above ground. The overall median and 90th percentile (95% confidence interval) patient access time intervals were 1.61 (1.27, 1.91) and 3.47 (3.08, 4.05) minutes, respectively. The median interval was 2.73 (2.22, 3.03) minutes among calls from patients located three or more stories above ground compared with 1.25 (1.07, 1.55) minutes among those at lower levels. The patient access time interval represented 23.5% of the total EMS response time interval among calls originating less than three floors above or below ground and 32.2% of those located three or more stories above ground. The most frequently encountered barriers to access included security code entry requirements, lack of directional signs, and inability to fit the stretcher into the elevator. The patient access time interval is significantly long and represents a substantial component of the total EMS response time interval, especially among ambulance calls originating three or more floors above ground. A number of barriers appear to contribute to delayed paramedic access.

  7. 76 FR 60733 - Drawbridge Operation Regulations; Narrow Bay, Smith Point, NY

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-30

    ... Operation Regulations; Narrow Bay, Smith Point, NY AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION: Notice of temporary... deviation from the regulation governing the operation of the Smith Point Bridge, 6.1, across Narrow Bay, between Smith Point and Fire Island, New York. The deviation is necessary to facilitate bridge...

  8. Interval Graph Limits

    PubMed Central

    Diaconis, Persi; Holmes, Susan; Janson, Svante

    2015-01-01

    We work out a graph limit theory for dense interval graphs. The theory developed departs from the usual description of a graph limit as a symmetric function W (x, y) on the unit square, with x and y uniform on the interval (0, 1). Instead, we fix a W and change the underlying distribution of the coordinates x and y. We find choices such that our limits are continuous. Connections to random interval graphs are given, including some examples. We also show a continuity result for the chromatic number and clique number of interval graphs. Some results on uniqueness of the limit description are given for general graph limits. PMID:26405368

  9. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  10. Electronic structure descriptor for the discovery of narrow-band red-emitting phosphors

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Zhenbin; Chu, Iek -Heng; Zhou, Fei; ...

    2016-05-09

    Narrow-band red-emitting phosphors are a critical component of phosphor-converted light-emitting diodes for highly efficient illumination-grade lighting. In this work, we report the discovery of a quantitative descriptor for narrow-band Eu 2+-activated emission identified through a comparison of the electronic structures of known narrow-band and broad-band phosphors. We find that a narrow emission bandwidth is characterized by a large splitting of more than 0.1 eV between the two highest Eu 2+ 4 f 7 bands. By incorporating this descriptor in a high-throughput first-principles screening of 2259 nitride compounds, we identify five promising new nitride hosts for Eu 2+-activated red-emitting phosphors thatmore » are predicted to exhibit good chemical stability, thermal quenching resistance, and quantum efficiency, as well as narrow-band emission. Lastly, our findings provide important insights into the emission characteristics of rare-earth activators in phosphor hosts and a general strategy to the discovery of phosphors with a desired emission peak and bandwidth.« less

  11. Electronic structure descriptor for the discovery of narrow-band red-emitting phosphors

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Zhenbin; Chu, Iek -Heng; Zhou, Fei

    Narrow-band red-emitting phosphors are a critical component of phosphor-converted light-emitting diodes for highly efficient illumination-grade lighting. In this work, we report the discovery of a quantitative descriptor for narrow-band Eu 2+-activated emission identified through a comparison of the electronic structures of known narrow-band and broad-band phosphors. We find that a narrow emission bandwidth is characterized by a large splitting of more than 0.1 eV between the two highest Eu 2+ 4 f 7 bands. By incorporating this descriptor in a high-throughput first-principles screening of 2259 nitride compounds, we identify five promising new nitride hosts for Eu 2+-activated red-emitting phosphors thatmore » are predicted to exhibit good chemical stability, thermal quenching resistance, and quantum efficiency, as well as narrow-band emission. Lastly, our findings provide important insights into the emission characteristics of rare-earth activators in phosphor hosts and a general strategy to the discovery of phosphors with a desired emission peak and bandwidth.« less

  12. Multipoint Pacing versus conventional ICD in Patients with a Narrow QRS complex (MPP Narrow QRS trial): study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Gasparini, Maurizio; Galimberti, Paola; Bragato, Renato; Ghio, Stefano; Raineri, Claudia; Landolina, Maurizio; Chieffo, Enrico; Lunati, Maurizio; Mulargia, Ederina; Proclemer, Alessandro; Facchin, Domenico; Rordorf, Roberto; Vicentini, Alessandro; Marcantoni, Lina; Zanon, Francesco; Klersy, Catherine

    2016-12-03

    Despite an intensive search for predictors of the response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), the QRS duration remains the simplest and most robust predictor of a positive response. QRS duration of ≥ 130 ms is considered to be a prerequisite for CRT; however, some studies have shown that CRT may also be effective in heart failure (HF) patients with a narrow QRS (<130 ms). Since CRT can now be performed by pacing the left ventricle from multiple vectors via a single quadripolar lead, it is possible that multipoint pacing (MPP) might be effective in HF patients with a narrow QRS. This article reports the design of the MPP Narrow QRS trial, a prospective, randomized, multicenter, controlled feasibility study to investigate the efficacy of MPP using two LV pacing vectors in patients with a narrow QRS complex (100-130 ms). Fifty patients with a standard ICD indication will be enrolled and randomized (1:1) to either an MPP group or a Standard ICD group. All patients will undergo a low-dose dobutamine stress echo test and only those with contractile reserve will be included in the study and randomized. The primary endpoint will be the percentage of patients in each group that have reverse remodeling at 12 months, defined as a reduction in left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) of >15% from the baseline. This feasibility study will determine whether MPP improves reverse remodeling, as compared with standard ICD, in HF patients who have a narrow QRS complex (100-130 ms). ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02402816 . Registered on 25 March 2015.

  13. Search for narrow resonances and quantum black holes in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra from pp collisions at $$ \\sqrt{s}=7 $$ TeV

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chatrchyan, S.; Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.

    A search for narrow resonances and quantum black holes is performed in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra measured with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data set corresponds to 5 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV. No narrow resonances or quantum black holes are observed. Model-independent upper limits at the 95% confidence level are obtained on the product of the cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance for three scenarios: decay into quark-quark, quark-gluon, and gluon-gluon pairs. Specific lower limits are set on the mass of string resonances (4.31more » TeV), excited quarks (3.32 TeV), axigluons and colorons (3.36 TeV), scalar color-octet resonances (2.07 TeV), E(6) diquarks (3.75 TeV), and on the masses of W' (1.92 TeV) and Z' (1.47 TeV) bosons. The limits on the minimum mass of quantum black holes range from 4 to 5.3 TeV. In addition, b-quark tagging is applied to the two leading jets and upper limits are set on the production of narrow dijet resonances in a model-independent fashion as a function of the branching fraction to b-jet pairs.« less

  14. Search for narrow resonances and quantum black holes in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra from pp collisions at sqrt{s}=7 TeV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatrchyan, S.; Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Aguilo, E.; Bergauer, T.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Fabjan, C.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Kiesenhofer, W.; Knünz, V.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Mikulec, I.; Pernicka, M.; Rabady, D.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, C.; Rohringer, H.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Taurok, A.; Waltenberger, W.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Gonzalez, J. Suarez; Alderweireldt, S.; Bansal, M.; Bansal, S.; Cornelis, T.; De Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Luyckx, S.; Mucibello, L.; Ochesanu, S.; Roland, B.; Rougny, R.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Van Spilbeeck, A.; Blekman, F.; Blyweert, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Suarez, R. Gonzalez; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Maes, M.; Olbrechts, A.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Villella, I.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Dero, V.; Gay, A. P. R.; Hreus, T.; Léonard, A.; Marage, P. E.; Mohammadi, A.; Reis, T.; Thomas, L.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Wang, J.; Adler, V.; Beernaert, K.; Cimmino, A.; Costantini, S.; Garcia, G.; Grunewald, M.; Klein, B.; Lellouch, J.; Marinov, A.; Mccartin, J.; Rios, A. A. Ocampo; Ryckbosch, D.; Sigamani, M.; Strobbe, N.; Thyssen, F.; Tytgat, M.; Walsh, S.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Bruno, G.; Castello, R.; Ceard, L.; Delaere, C.; du Pree, T.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Hollar, J.; Lemaitre, V.; Liao, J.; Militaru, O.; Nuttens, C.; Pagano, D.; Pin, A.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Selvaggi, M.; Garcia, J. M. Vizan; Beliy, N.; Caebergs, T.; Daubie, E.; Hammad, G. H.; Alves, G. A.; Correa Martins, M.; Martins, T.; Pol, M. E.; Souza, M. H. G.; Júnior, W. L. Aldá; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Custódio, A.; Da Costa, E. M.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; De Oliveira Martins, C.; De Souza, S. Fonseca; Malbouisson, H.; Malek, M.; Figueiredo, D. Matos; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Da Silva, W. L. Prado; Santoro, A.; Jorge, L. Soares; Sznajder, A.; Manganote, E. J. Tonelli; Pereira, A. Vilela; Anjos, T. S.; Bernardes, C. A.; Dias, F. A.; Tomei, T. R. Fernandez Perez; Gregores, E. M.; Lagana, C.; Marinho, F.; Mercadante, P. G.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Genchev, V.; Iaydjiev, P.; Piperov, S.; Rodozov, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Tcholakov, V.; Trayanov, R.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Kozhuharov, V.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Jiang, C. H.; Liang, D.; Liang, S.; Meng, X.; Tao, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, X.; Wang, Z.; Xiao, H.; Xu, M.; Zang, J.; Zhang, Z.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Ban, Y.; Guo, Y.; Li, W.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Teng, H.; Wang, D.; Zhang, L.; Zou, W.; Avila, C.; Montoya, C. A. Carrillo; Gomez, J. P.; Moreno, B. Gomez; Oliveros, A. F. Osorio; Sanabria, J. C.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Plestina, R.; Polic, D.; Puljak, I.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Duric, S.; Kadija, K.; Luetic, J.; Mekterovic, D.; Morovic, S.; Tikvica, L.; Attikis, A.; Galanti, M.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; Assran, Y.; Elgammal, S.; Kamel, A. Ellithi; Awad, A. M. Kuotb; Mahmoud, M. A.; Radi, A.; Kadastik, M.; Müntel, M.; Murumaa, M.; Raidal, M.; Rebane, L.; Tiko, A.; Eerola, P.; Fedi, G.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Heikkinen, A.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Kortelainen, M. J.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Mäenpää, T.; Peltola, T.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Ungaro, D.; Wendland, L.; Korpela, A.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Choudhury, S.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Fabbro, B.; Faure, J. L.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; de Monchenault, G. Hamel; Jarry, P.; Locci, E.; Malcles, J.; Millischer, L.; Nayak, A.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Titov, M.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Benhabib, L.; Bianchini, L.; Bluj, M.; Busson, P.; Charlot, C.; Daci, N.; Dahms, T.; Dalchenko, M.; Dobrzynski, L.; Florent, A.; de Cassagnac, R. Granier; Haguenauer, M.; Miné, P.; Mironov, C.; Naranjo, I. N.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Paganini, P.; Sabes, D.; Salerno, R.; Sirois, Y.; Veelken, C.; Zabi, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Bloch, D.; Bodin, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Cardaci, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Drouhin, F.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Juillot, P.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Van Hove, P.; Beauceron, S.; Beaupere, N.; Bondu, O.; Boudoul, G.; Brochet, S.; Chasserat, J.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fay, J.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Ille, B.; Kurca, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Perries, S.; Sgandurra, L.; Sordini, V.; Tschudi, Y.; Verdier, P.; Viret, S.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Autermann, C.; Beranek, S.; Calpas, B.; Edelhoff, M.; Feld, L.; Heracleous, N.; Hindrichs, O.; Jussen, R.; Klein, K.; Merz, J.; Ostapchuk, A.; Perieanu, A.; Raupach, F.; Sammet, J.; Schael, S.; Sprenger, D.; Weber, H.; Wittmer, B.; Zhukov, V.; Ata, M.; Caudron, J.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Erdmann, M.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Klingebiel, D.; Kreuzer, P.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Olschewski, M.; Padeken, K.; Papacz, P.; Pieta, H.; Reithler, H.; Schmitz, S. A.; Sonnenschein, L.; Steggemann, J.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Weber, M.; Bontenackels, M.; Cherepanov, V.; Erdogan, Y.; Flügge, G.; Geenen, H.; Geisler, M.; Ahmad, W. Haj; Hoehle, F.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Kuessel, Y.; Lingemann, J.; Nowack, A.; Nugent, I. M.; Perchalla, L.; Pooth, O.; Sauerland, P.; Stahl, A.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Asin, I.; Bartosik, N.; Behr, J.; Behrenhoff, W.; Behrens, U.; Bergholz, M.; Bethani, A.; Borras, K.; Burgmeier, A.; Cakir, A.; Calligaris, L.; Campbell, A.; Castro, E.; Costanza, F.; Dammann, D.; Pardos, C. Diez; Dorland, T.; Eckerlin, G.; Eckstein, D.; Flucke, G.; Geiser, A.; Glushkov, I.; Gunnellini, P.; Habib, S.; Hauk, J.; Hellwig, G.; Jung, H.; Kasemann, M.; Katsas, P.; Kleinwort, C.; Kluge, H.; Knutsson, A.; Krämer, M.; Krücker, D.; Kuznetsova, E.; Lange, W.; Leonard, J.; Lohmann, W.; Lutz, B.; Mankel, R.; Marfin, I.; Marienfeld, M.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Meyer, A. B.; Mnich, J.; Mussgiller, A.; Naumann-Emme, S.; Novgorodova, O.; Nowak, F.; Olzem, J.; Perrey, H.; Petrukhin, A.; Pitzl, D.; Raspereza, A.; Cipriano, P. M. Ribeiro; Riedl, C.; Ron, E.; Rosin, M.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Schmidt, R.; Schoerner-Sadenius, T.; Sen, N.; Spiridonov, A.; Stein, M.; Walsh, R.; Wissing, C.; Blobel, V.; Enderle, H.; Erfle, J.; Gebbert, U.; Görner, M.; Gosselink, M.; Haller, J.; Hermanns, T.; Höing, R. S.; Kaschube, K.; Kaussen, G.; Kirschenmann, H.; Klanner, R.; Lange, J.; Peiffer, T.; Pietsch, N.; Rathjens, D.; Sander, C.; Schettler, H.; Schleper, P.; Schlieckau, E.; Schmidt, A.; Schröder, M.; Schum, T.; Seidel, M.; Sibille, J.; Sola, V.; Stadie, H.; Steinbrück, G.; Thomsen, J.; Vanelderen, L.; Barth, C.; Baus, C.; Berger, J.; Böser, C.; Chwalek, T.; De Boer, W.; Descroix, A.; Dierlamm, A.; Feindt, M.; Guthoff, M.; Hackstein, C.; Hartmann, F.; Hauth, T.; Heinrich, M.; Held, H.; Hoffmann, K. H.; Husemann, U.; Katkov, I.; Komaragiri, J. R.; Pardo, P. Lobelle; Martschei, D.; Mueller, S.; Müller, Th.; Niegel, M.; Nürnberg, A.; Oberst, O.; Oehler, A.; Ott, J.; Quast, G.; Rabbertz, K.; Ratnikov, F.; Ratnikova, N.; Röcker, S.; Schilling, F.-P.; Schott, G.; Simonis, H. J.; Stober, F. M.; Troendle, D.; Ulrich, R.; Wagner-Kuhr, J.; Wayand, S.; Weiler, T.; Zeise, M.; Anagnostou, G.; Daskalakis, G.; Geralis, T.; Kesisoglou, S.; Kyriakis, A.; Loukas, D.; Manolakos, I.; Markou, A.; Markou, C.; Ntomari, E.; Gouskos, L.; Mertzimekis, T. J.; Panagiotou, A.; Saoulidou, N.; Evangelou, I.; Foudas, C.; Kokkas, P.; Manthos, N.; Papadopoulos, I.; Bencze, G.; Hajdu, C.; Hidas, P.; Horvath, D.; Sikler, F.; Veszpremi, V.; Vesztergombi, G.; Zsigmond, A. J.; Beni, N.; Czellar, S.; Molnar, J.; Palinkas, J.; Szillasi, Z.; Karancsi, J.; Raics, P.; Trocsanyi, Z. L.; Ujvari, B.; Beri, S. B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Dhingra, N.; Gupta, R.; Kaur, M.; Mehta, M. Z.; Mittal, M.; Nishu, N.; Saini, L. K.; Sharma, A.; Singh, J. B.; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, S.; Bhardwaj, A.; Choudhary, B. C.; Malhotra, S.; Naimuddin, M.; Ranjan, K.; Saxena, P.; Sharma, V.; Shivpuri, R. K.; Banerjee, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Chatterjee, K.; Dutta, S.; Gomber, B.; Jain, Sa.; Jain, Sh.; Khurana, R.; Modak, A.; Mukherjee, S.; Roy, D.; Sarkar, S.; Sharan, M.; Abdulsalam, A.; Dutta, D.; Kailas, S.; Kumar, V.; Mohanty, A. K.; Pant, L. M.; Shukla, P.; Aziz, T.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Ganguly, S.; Guchait, M.; Gurtu, A.; Maity, M.; Majumder, G.; Mazumdar, K.; Mohanty, G. B.; Parida, B.; Sudhakar, K.; Wickramage, N.; Banerjee, S.; Dugad, S.; Arfaei, H.; Bakhshiansohi, H.; Etesami, S. M.; Fahim, A.; Hashemi, M.; Hesari, H.; Jafari, A.; Khakzad, M.; Najafabadi, M. Mohammadi; Mehdiabadi, S. Paktinat; Safarzadeh, B.; Zeinali, M.; Abbrescia, M.; Barbone, L.; Calabria, C.; Chhibra, S. S.; Colaleo, A.; Creanza, D.; De Filippis, N.; De Palma, M.; Fiore, L.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Maggi, M.; Marangelli, B.; My, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pacifico, N.; Pompili, A.; Pugliese, G.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Singh, G.; Venditti, R.; Verwilligen, P.; Zito, G.; Abbiendi, G.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Braibant-Giacomelli, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Capiluppi, P.; Castro, A.; Cavallo, F. R.; Cuffiani, M.; Dallavalle, G. M.; Fabbri, F.; Fanfani, A.; Fasanella, D.; Giacomelli, P.; Grandi, C.; Guiducci, L.; Marcellini, S.; Masetti, G.; Meneghelli, M.; Montanari, A.; Navarria, F. L.; Odorici, F.; Perrotta, A.; Primavera, F.; Rossi, A. M.; Rovelli, T.; Siroli, G. P.; Tosi, N.; Travaglini, R.; Albergo, S.; Cappello, G.; Chiorboli, M.; Costa, S.; Potenza, R.; Tricomi, A.; Tuve, C.; Barbagli, G.; Ciulli, V.; Civinini, C.; D'Alessandro, R.; Focardi, E.; Frosali, S.; Gallo, E.; Gonzi, S.; Meschini, M.; Paoletti, S.; Sguazzoni, G.; Tropiano, A.; Benussi, L.; Bianco, S.; Colafranceschi, S.; Fabbri, F.; Piccolo, D.; Fabbricatore, P.; Musenich, R.; Tosi, S.; Benaglia, A.; De Guio, F.; Di Matteo, L.; Fiorendi, S.; Gennai, S.; Ghezzi, A.; Lucchini, M. T.; Malvezzi, S.; Manzoni, R. A.; Martelli, A.; Massironi, A.; Menasce, D.; Moroni, L.; Paganoni, M.; Pedrini, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Redaelli, N.; de Fatis, T. Tabarelli; Buontempo, S.; Cavallo, N.; De Cosa, A.; Dogangun, O.; Fabozzi, F.; Iorio, A. O. 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P., Iii; Murray, M.; Noonan, D.; Sanders, S.; Stringer, R.; Tinti, G.; Wood, J. S.; Barfuss, A. F.; Bolton, T.; Chakaberia, I.; Ivanov, A.; Khalil, S.; Makouski, M.; Maravin, Y.; Shrestha, S.; Svintradze, I.; Gronberg, J.; Lange, D.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Baden, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Gomez, J. A.; Hadley, N. J.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kirn, M.; Kolberg, T.; Lu, Y.; Marionneau, M.; Mignerey, A. C.; Pedro, K.; Peterman, A.; Skuja, A.; Temple, J.; Tonjes, M. B.; Tonwar, S. C.; Apyan, A.; Bauer, G.; Bendavid, J.; Busza, W.; Butz, E.; Cali, I. A.; Chan, M.; Dutta, V.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Kim, Y.; Klute, M.; Krajczar, K.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Ma, T.; Nahn, S.; Paus, C.; Ralph, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Rudolph, M.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Stöckli, F.; Sumorok, K.; Sung, K.; Velicanu, D.; Wenger, E. A.; Wolf, R.; Wyslouch, B.; Yang, M.; Yilmaz, Y.; Yoon, A. S.; Zanetti, M.; Zhukova, V.; Dahmes, B.; De Benedetti, A.; Franzoni, G.; Gude, A.; Kao, S. C.; Klapoetke, K.; Kubota, Y.; Mans, J.; Pastika, N.; Rusack, R.; Sasseville, M.; Singovsky, A.; Tambe, N.; Turkewitz, J.; Cremaldi, L. M.; Kroeger, R.; Perera, L.; Rahmat, R.; Sanders, D. A.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Bose, S.; Claes, D. R.; Dominguez, A.; Eads, M.; Keller, J.; Kravchenko, I.; Lazo-Flores, J.; Malik, S.; Snow, G. R.; Godshalk, A.; Iashvili, I.; Jain, S.; Kharchilava, A.; Kumar, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Wan, Z.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Baumgartel, D.; Chasco, M.; Haley, J.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Trocino, D.; Wood, D.; Zhang, J.; Anastassov, A.; Hahn, K. A.; Kubik, A.; Lusito, L.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Ofierzynski, R. A.; Pollack, B.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Schmitt, M.; Stoynev, S.; Velasco, M.; Won, S.; Berry, D.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Chan, K. M.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kolb, J.; Lannon, K.; Luo, W.; Lynch, S.; Marinelli, N.; Morse, D. M.; Pearson, T.; Planer, M.; Ruchti, R.; Slaunwhite, J.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Antonelli, L.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Kotov, K.; Ling, T. Y.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Smith, G.; Vuosalo, C.; Williams, G.; Winer, B. L.; Berry, E.; Elmer, P.; Halyo, V.; Hebda, P.; Hegeman, J.; Hunt, A.; Jindal, P.; Koay, S. A.; Pegna, D. Lopes; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Piroué, P.; Quan, X.; Raval, A.; Saka, H.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Werner, J. S.; Zenz, S. C.; Zuranski, A.; Brownson, E.; Lopez, A.; Mendez, H.; Vargas, J. E. Ramirez; Alagoz, E.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bolla, G.; Bortoletto, D.; De Mattia, M.; Everett, A.; Hu, Z.; Jones, M.; Koybasi, O.; Kress, M.; Laasanen, A. T.; Leonardo, N.; Maroussov, V.; Merkel, P.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Marono, M. Vidal; Yoo, H. D.; Zablocki, J.; Zheng, Y.; Guragain, S.; Parashar, N.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Boulahouache, C.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Li, W.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; Chung, Y. S.; Covarelli, R.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Goldenzweig, P.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Miner, D. C.; Vishnevskiy, D.; Zielinski, M.; Bhatti, A.; Ciesielski, R.; Demortier, L.; Goulianos, K.; Lungu, G.; Malik, S.; Mesropian, C.; Arora, S.; Barker, A.; Chou, J. P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Contreras-Campana, E.; Duggan, D.; Ferencek, D.; Gershtein, Y.; Gray, R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hidas, D.; Lath, A.; Panwalkar, S.; Park, M.; Patel, R.; Rekovic, V.; Robles, J.; Rose, K.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Seitz, C.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Walker, M.; Cerizza, G.; Hollingsworth, M.; Spanier, S.; Yang, Z. C.; York, A.; Eusebi, R.; Flanagan, W.; Gilmore, J.; Kamon, T.; Khotilovich, V.; Montalvo, R.; Osipenkov, I.; Pakhotin, Y.; Perloff, A.; Roe, J.; Safonov, A.; Sakuma, T.; Sengupta, S.; Suarez, I.; Tatarinov, A.; Toback, D.; Akchurin, N.; Damgov, J.; Dragoiu, C.; Dudero, P. R.; Jeong, C.; Kovitanggoon, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Volobouev, I.; Appelt, E.; Delannoy, A. G.; Florez, C.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Johns, W.; Kurt, P.; Maguire, C.; Melo, A.; Sharma, M.; Sheldon, P.; Snook, B.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Arenton, M. W.; Balazs, M.; Boutle, S.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Wood, J.; Gollapinni, S.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Don, C. Kottachchi Kankanamge; Lamichhane, P.; Sakharov, A.; Anderson, M.; Belknap, D. A.; Borrello, L.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Dasu, S.; Friis, E.; Gray, L.; Grogg, K. S.; Grothe, M.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Klukas, J.; Lanaro, A.; Lazaridis, C.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Mozer, M. U.; Ojalvo, I.; Palmonari, F.; Pierro, G. A.; Ross, I.; Savin, A.; Smith, W. H.; Swanson, J.

    2013-01-01

    A search for narrow resonances and quantum black holes is performed in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra measured with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data set corresponds to 5 fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected in pp collisions at sqrt{s}=7 TeV. No narrow resonances or quantum black holes are observed. Model-independent upper limits at the 95% confidence level are obtained on the product of the cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance for three scenarios: decay into quark-quark, quark-gluon, and gluon-gluon pairs. Specific lower limits are set on the mass of string resonances (4.31 TeV), excited quarks (3.32 TeV), axigluons and colorons (3.36 TeV), scalar color-octet resonances (2.07 TeV), E6 diquarks (3.75 TeV), and on the masses of W' (1.92 TeV) and Z' (1.47 TeV) bosons. The limits on the minimum mass of quantum black holes range from 4 to 5.3 TeV. In addition, b-quark tagging is applied to the two leading jets and upper limits are set on the production of narrow dijet resonances in a model-independent fashion as a function of the branching fraction to b-jet pairs.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  15. Extended score interval in the assessment of basic surgical skills.

    PubMed

    Acosta, Stefan; Sevonius, Dan; Beckman, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The Basic Surgical Skills course uses an assessment score interval of 0-3. An extended score interval, 1-6, was proposed by the Swedish steering committee of the course. The aim of this study was to analyze the trainee scores in the current 0-3 scored version compared to a proposed 1-6 scored version. Sixteen participants, seven females and nine males, were evaluated in the current and proposed assessment forms by instructors, observers, and learners themselves during the first and second day. In each assessment form, 17 tasks were assessed. The inter-rater reliability between the current and the proposed score sheets were evaluated with intraclass correlation (ICC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The distribution of scores for 'knot tying' at the last time point and 'bowel anastomosis side to side' given by the instructors in the current assessment form showed that the highest score was given in 31 and 62%, respectively. No ceiling effects were found in the proposed assessment form. The overall ICC between the current and proposed score sheets after assessment by the instructors increased from 0.38 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) on Day 1 to 0.83 (95% CI 0.51-0.94) on Day 2. A clear ceiling effect of scores was demonstrated in the current assessment form, questioning its validity. The proposed score sheet provides more accurate scores and seems to be a better feedback instrument for learning technical surgical skills in the Basic Surgical Skills course.

  16. Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

    PubMed

    Neerland, Carrie E

    2018-06-06

    Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  17. High-precision measurements of cementless acetabular components using model-based RSA: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Baad-Hansen, Thomas; Kold, Søren; Kaptein, Bart L; Søballe, Kjeld

    2007-08-01

    In RSA, tantalum markers attached to metal-backed acetabular cups are often difficult to detect on stereo radiographs due to the high density of the metal shell. This results in occlusion of the prosthesis markers and may lead to inconclusive migration results. Within the last few years, new software systems have been developed to solve this problem. We compared the precision of 3 RSA systems in migration analysis of the acetabular component. A hemispherical and a non-hemispherical acetabular component were mounted in a phantom. Both acetabular components underwent migration analyses with 3 different RSA systems: conventional RSA using tantalum markers, an RSA system using a hemispherical cup algorithm, and a novel model-based RSA system. We found narrow confidence intervals, indicating high precision of the conventional marker system and model-based RSA with regard to migration and rotation. The confidence intervals of conventional RSA and model-based RSA were narrower than those of the hemispherical cup algorithm-based system regarding cup migration and rotation. The model-based RSA software combines the precision of the conventional RSA software with the convenience of the hemispherical cup algorithm-based system. Based on our findings, we believe that these new tools offer an improvement in the measurement of acetabular component migration.

  18. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  19. Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; hide

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  20. Narrow-Band Applications of Communications Satellites.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cowlan, Bert; Horowitz, Andrew

    This paper attempts to describe the advantages of "narrow-band" applications of communications satellites for education. It begins by discussing the general controversy surrounding the use of satellites in education, by placing the concern within the larger context of the general debate over the uses of new technologies in education, and by…

  1. CHARACTERIZATION OF A NARROW SPECTRUM ANTIMICROBIAL THAT EXHIBITS SPECIFIC ACTIVITY AGAINST UROPATHOGENIC BACTERIA

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-08-28

    NARROW-SPECTRUM ANTIMICROBIAL THAT EXHIBITS SPECIFIC ACTIVITY AGAINST UROPATHOGENIC BACTERIA by Caitlin M. Barrows Courtney M. Cowell Jennifer...From - To) October 2015 – September 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE CHARACTERIZATION OF A NARROW-SPECTRUM ANTIMICROBIAL THAT EXHIBITS SPECIFIC ACTIVITY ...objective of the work described in this report is to identify a narrow-spectrum antimicrobial that exhibits targeted activity against uropathogenic

  2. Design, Construction, Demonstration and Delivery of an Automated Narrow Gap Welding System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-03-31

    evaluated on the Narrow Gap welding system. By using the combinational qas shielding assembly, it is now possible to reduce the gas flow rates to a value...AD-A145 496 DESIGN CONSTRUCTION DEMONSTRATION AND DE IVER OF AN AUTOMATED NARROW GAP WELDING SYSTEM(U) CRC AUTOMATIC WELDING CO HODSTON SX 31 MAR 83...STANDARDS-963 - A CRC REPORT NO. NAV A/W 7 0PHASE 3 REPORT ON SDESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, DEMONSTRATION AND DELIVERY OF AN AUTOMATED NARROW GAP WELDING

  3. Temporal intensity interferometry for characterization of very narrow spectral lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, P. K.; Kurtsiefer, C.

    2017-08-01

    Some stellar objects exhibit very narrow spectral lines in the visible range additional to their blackbody radiation. Natural lasing has been suggested as a mechanism to explain narrow lines in Wolf-Rayet stars. However, the spectral resolution of conventional astronomical spectrographs is still about two orders of magnitude too low to test this hypothesis. We want to resolve the linewidth of narrow spectral emissions in starlight. A combination of spectral filtering with single-photon-level temporal correlation measurements breaks the resolution limit of wavelength-dispersing spectrographs by moving the linewidth measurement into the time domain. We demonstrate in a laboratory experiment that temporal intensity interferometry can determine a 20-MHz-wide linewidth of Doppler-broadened laser light and identify a coherent laser light contribution in a blackbody radiation background.

  4. Narrow-line magneto-optical cooling and trapping of strongly magnetic atoms.

    PubMed

    Berglund, Andrew J; Hanssen, James L; McClelland, Jabez J

    2008-03-21

    Laser cooling on weak transitions is a useful technique for reaching ultracold temperatures in atoms with multiple valence electrons. However, for strongly magnetic atoms a conventional narrow-line magneto-optical trap (MOT) is destabilized by competition between optical and magnetic forces. We overcome this difficulty in Er by developing an unusual narrow-line MOT that balances optical and magnetic forces using laser light tuned to the blue side of a narrow (8 kHz) transition. The trap population is spin polarized with temperatures reaching below 2 muK. Our results constitute an alternative method for laser cooling on weak transitions, applicable to rare-earth-metal and metastable alkaline earth elements.

  5. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    PubMed

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  6. The self-consistency model of subjective confidence.

    PubMed

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen answer is supported across representations. Confidence is modeled by analogy to the calculation of statistical level of confidence (SLC) in testing hypotheses about a population and represents the participant's assessment of the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same choice. Assuming that participants draw representations from a commonly shared item-specific population of representations, predictions were derived regarding the function relating confidence to inter-participant consensus and intra-participant consistency for the more preferred (majority) and the less preferred (minority) choices. The predicted pattern was confirmed for several different tasks. The confidence-accuracy relationship was shown to be a by-product of the consistency-correctness relationship: It is positive because the answers that are consistently chosen are generally correct, but negative when the wrong answers tend to be favored. The overconfidence bias stems from the reliability-validity discrepancy: Confidence monitors reliability (or self-consistency), but its accuracy is evaluated in calibration studies against correctness. Simulation and empirical results suggest that response speed is a frugal cue for self-consistency, and its validity depends on the validity of self-consistency in predicting performance. Another mnemonic cue-accessibility, which is the overall amount of information that comes to mind-makes an added, independent contribution. Self-consistency and accessibility may correspond to the 2 parameters that affect SLC: sample variance and sample size.

  7. 78 FR 23845 - Drawbridge Operation Regulations; Narrow Bay, Smith Point, NY

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-23

    ... Operation Regulations; Narrow Bay, Smith Point, NY AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION: Notice of temporary... deviation from the regulation governing the operation of the Smith Point Bridge, mile 6.1, across Narrow Bay, between Smith Point and Fire Island, New York. The deviation is necessary to facilitate the Smith Point...

  8. Ultra-narrow-linewidth Brillouin/erbium fiber laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Mo; Wang, Chenyu; Wang, Jianfei; Luo, Hong; Meng, Zhou

    2018-02-01

    Ultra-narrow-linewidth lasers are of great interest in many applications, such as precise spectroscopy, optical communications, and sensors. Stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS), as one of the main nonlinear effects in fibers, is capable of generating narrow-linewidth light emission. We establish a compact Brillouin/erbium fiber laser (BEFL) utilizing 4-m erbium-doped fiber as both the Brillouin gain and linear media. A 360-kHz-linewidth laser diode is injected into the cavity as the Brillouin pump (BP) light and generates Brillouin Stokes lasing light. Both of the phase noise of the BP and BEFL output are measured by a high-accuracy unbalanced Michelson interferometer. It is demonstrated that 53- dB phase noise reduction is achieved after the BP is transferred into Brillouin Stokes emission. The linewidth of the BEFL is indicated at Hz-range by both calculation and experiment.

  9. Chosen interval methods for solving linear interval systems with special type of matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szyszka, Barbara

    2013-10-01

    The paper is devoted to chosen direct interval methods for solving linear interval systems with special type of matrix. This kind of matrix: band matrix with a parameter, from finite difference problem is obtained. Such linear systems occur while solving one dimensional wave equation (Partial Differential Equations of hyperbolic type) by using the central difference interval method of the second order. Interval methods are constructed so as the errors of method are enclosed in obtained results, therefore presented linear interval systems contain elements that determining the errors of difference method. The chosen direct algorithms have been applied for solving linear systems because they have no errors of method. All calculations were performed in floating-point interval arithmetic.

  10. A technique for production of nanocrystalline cellulose with a narrow size distribution

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bai, Wen; Holbery, James D.; Li, Kaichang

    2009-02-01

    Nanocrystalline cellulose (NCC) was prepared by sulfuric acid hydrolysis of microcrystalline cellulose. A differential centrifugation technique was studied to obtain NCC whiskers with a narrow size distribution. It was shown that the volume of NCC in different fractions had an inverse relationship with relative centrifugal force (RCF). The length of NCC whiskers was also fractionized by differential RCF. The aspect ratio of NCC in different fractions had a relatively narrow range. This technique provides an easy way of producing NCC whiskers with a narrow size distribution.

  11. Ischemic Ventricular Tachycardia Presenting as a Narrow Complex Tachycardia

    PubMed Central

    Page, Stephen P; Watts, Troy; Yeo, Wee Tiong; Mehul, Dhinoja

    2014-01-01

    This report describes a patient presenting with a narrow complex tachycardia in the context of prior myocardial infarction and impaired ventricular function. Electrophysiological studies confirmed ventricular tachycardia and activation and entrainment mapping demonstrated a critical isthmus within an area of scar involving the His-Purkinje system accounting for the narrow QRS morphology. This very rare case shares some similarities with upper septal ventricular tachycardia seen in patients with structurally normal hearts, but to our knowledge has not been seen previously in patients with ischemic heart disease. PMID:25057222

  12. Adverse effects of prohibiting narrow provider networks.

    PubMed

    Howard, David H

    2014-08-14

    Many insurers participating in the new insurance exchanges are controlling costs by offering plans with narrow provider networks. Proposed regulations would promote network adequacy, but a pro-provider stance may not be inherently pro-consumer or even pro-patient.

  13. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    PubMed

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  14. Basic Confidence Predictors of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paulsen, Alisa M.; Betz, Nancy E.

    2004-01-01

    The extent to which Basic Confidence Scales predicted career decision-making self-efficacy was studied in a sample of 627 undergraduate students. Six confidence variables accounted for 49% of the variance in career decision-making self-efficacy. Leadership confidence was the most important, but confidence in science, mathematics, writing, using…

  15. Confidence level estimation in multi-target classification problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Shi; Isaacs, Jason; Fu, Bo; Shin, Jaejeong; Zhu, Pingping; Ferrari, Silvia

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents an approach for estimating the confidence level in automatic multi-target classification performed by an imaging sensor on an unmanned vehicle. An automatic target recognition algorithm comprised of a deep convolutional neural network in series with a support vector machine classifier detects and classifies targets based on the image matrix. The joint posterior probability mass function of target class, features, and classification estimates is learned from labeled data, and recursively updated as additional images become available. Based on the learned joint probability mass function, the approach presented in this paper predicts the expected confidence level of future target classifications, prior to obtaining new images. The proposed approach is tested with a set of simulated sonar image data. The numerical results show that the estimated confidence level provides a close approximation to the actual confidence level value determined a posteriori, i.e. after the new image is obtained by the on-board sensor. Therefore, the expected confidence level function presented in this paper can be used to adaptively plan the path of the unmanned vehicle so as to optimize the expected confidence levels and ensure that all targets are classified with satisfactory confidence after the path is executed.

  16. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  17. Assessing the Utility of Compound Trait Estimates of Narrow Personality Traits.

    PubMed

    Credé, Marcus; Harms, Peter D; Blacksmith, Nikki; Wood, Dustin

    2016-01-01

    It has been argued that approximations of narrow traits can be made through linear combinations of broad traits such as the Big Five personality traits. Indeed, Hough and Ones ( 2001 ) used a qualitative analysis of scale content to arrive at a taxonomy of how Big Five traits might be combined to approximate various narrow traits. However, the utility of such compound trait approximations has yet to be established beyond specific cases such as integrity and customer service orientation. Using data from the Eugene-Springfield Community Sample (Goldberg, 2008 ), we explore the ability of linear composites of scores on Big Five traits to approximate scores on 127 narrow trait measures from 5 well-known non-Big-Five omnibus measures of personality. Our findings indicate that individuals' standing on more than 30 narrow traits can be well estimated from 3 different types of linear composites of scores on Big Five traits without a substantial sacrifice in criterion validity. We discuss theoretical accounts for why such relationships exist as well as the theoretical and practical implications of these findings for researchers and practitioners.

  18. Grassy Narrows Reserve: Mercury Pollution, Social Disruption, and Natural Resources: A Question of Autonomy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vecsey, Christopher

    1987-01-01

    Presents chronological socio-economic account of Grassy Narrows Reserve, focusing on the 1962-1970 mercury pollution that poisoned the reserve's river system and on resulting negotiations between the Ojibway people of Grassy Narrows, the government, and the polluting company. Examines the question of Grassy Narrows people gaining autonomy over the…

  19. Mammography interval and breast cancer mortality in women over the age of 75.

    PubMed

    Simon, Michael S; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Thomson, Cynthia A; Ray, Roberta M; Hubbell, F Allan; Lessin, Lawrence; Lane, Dorothy S; Kuller, Lew H

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between mammography interval and breast cancer mortality among older women with breast cancer. The study population included 1,914 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer at age 75 or later during their participation in the Women's health initiative, with an average follow-up of 4.4 years (3.1 SD). Cause of death was based on medical record review. Mammography interval was defined as the time between the last self-reported mammogram 7 or more months prior to diagnosis, and the date of diagnosis. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality were computed from Cox proportional hazards analyses. Prior mammograms were reported by 73.0 % of women from 7 months to ≤2 year of diagnosis (referent group), 19.4 % (>2 to <5 years), and 7.5 % (≥5 years or no prior mammogram). Women with the longest versus shortest intervals had more poorly differentiated (28.5 % vs. 22.7 %), advanced stage (25.7 % vs. 22.9 %), and estrogen receptor negative tumors (20.9 % vs. 13.1 %). Compared to the referent group, women with intervals of >2 to <5 years or ≥5 years had an increased risk of breast cancer mortality (HR 1.62, 95 % CI 1.03-2.54) and (HR 2.80, 95 % CI 1.57-5.00), respectively, p trend = 0.0002. There was no significant relationship between mammography interval and other causes of death. These results suggest a continued role for screening mammography among women 75 years of age and older.

  20. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    PubMed

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Primary care physicians' perceptions about and confidence in deciding which patients to refer for total joint arthroplasty of the hip and knee.

    PubMed

    Waugh, E J; Badley, E M; Borkhoff, C M; Croxford, R; Davis, A M; Dunn, S; Gignac, M A; Jaglal, S B; Sale, J; Hawker, G A

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of primary care physicians (PCPs) regarding indications, contraindications, risks and benefits of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) and their confidence in selecting patients for referral for TJA. PCPs recruited from among those providing care to participants in an established community cohort with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA). Self-completed questionnaires were used to collect demographic and practice characteristics and perceptions about TJA. Confidence in referring appropriate patients for TJA was measured on a scale from 1 to 10; respondents scoring in the lowest tertile were considered to have 'low confidence'. Descriptive analyses were conducted and multiple logistic regression was used to determine key predictors of low confidence. 212 PCPs participated (58% response rate) (65% aged 50+ years, 45% female, 77% >15 years of practice). Perceptions about TJA were highly variable but on average, PCPs perceived that a typical surgical candidate would have moderate pain and disability, identified few absolute contraindications to TJA, and overestimated both the effectiveness and risks of TJA. On average, PCPs indicated moderate confidence in deciding who to refer. Independent predictors of low confidence were female physicians (OR = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-4.46) and reporting a 'lack of clarity about surgical indications' (OR = 3.54, 95% CI: 1.87-6.66). Variability in perceptions and lack of clarity about surgical indications underscore the need for decision support tools to inform PCP - patient decision making regarding referral for TJA. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  3. True and false memories, parietal cortex, and confidence judgments

    PubMed Central

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory). Accordingly, it has often been difficult to know whether a finding is related to memory confidence or memory accuracy. In the current study, participants made recognition memory judgments with confidence ratings in response to previously studied scenes and novel scenes. The left hippocampus and 16 other brain regions distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were different for the two conditions. Only three regions (all in the parietal cortex) distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were equated. These findings illustrate the utility of taking confidence ratings into account when identifying brain regions associated with true and false memories. Neural correlates of true and false memories are most easily interpreted when confidence ratings are similar for the two kinds of memories. PMID:26472645

  4. Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Entanglement of Narrow-Band Photons from Cold Atoms.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jong-Chan; Park, Kwang-Kyoon; Zhao, Tian-Ming; Kim, Yoon-Ho

    2016-12-16

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) entanglement introduced in 1935 deals with two particles that are entangled in their positions and momenta. Here we report the first experimental demonstration of EPR position-momentum entanglement of narrow-band photon pairs generated from cold atoms. By using two-photon quantum ghost imaging and ghost interference, we demonstrate explicitly that the narrow-band photon pairs violate the separability criterion, confirming EPR entanglement. We further demonstrate continuous variable EPR steering for positions and momenta of the two photons. Our new source of EPR-entangled narrow-band photons is expected to play an essential role in spatially multiplexed quantum information processing, such as, storage of quantum correlated images, quantum interface involving hyperentangled photons, etc.

  5. Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Entanglement of Narrow-Band Photons from Cold Atoms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jong-Chan; Park, Kwang-Kyoon; Zhao, Tian-Ming; Kim, Yoon-Ho

    2016-12-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) entanglement introduced in 1935 deals with two particles that are entangled in their positions and momenta. Here we report the first experimental demonstration of EPR position-momentum entanglement of narrow-band photon pairs generated from cold atoms. By using two-photon quantum ghost imaging and ghost interference, we demonstrate explicitly that the narrow-band photon pairs violate the separability criterion, confirming EPR entanglement. We further demonstrate continuous variable EPR steering for positions and momenta of the two photons. Our new source of EPR-entangled narrow-band photons is expected to play an essential role in spatially multiplexed quantum information processing, such as, storage of quantum correlated images, quantum interface involving hyperentangled photons, etc.

  6. Experimental study on occupant evacuation in narrow seat aisle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shenshi; Lu, Shouxiang; Lo, Siuming; Li, Changhai; Guo, Yafei

    2018-07-01

    Narrow seat aisle is an important area in the train car interior due to the large passenger population, however evacuation therein has not gained enough concerns. In this experimental study, the occupant evacuation of the narrow seat aisle area is investigated, with the aisle width of 0.4-0.6 m and the evacuation direction of forward and backward. The evacuation behaviors are analyzed based on the video record, and the discussion is carried out in the aspect of evacuation time, crowdedness, evacuation order, and aisle conflicts. The result shows that with the increasing aisle width, total evacuation time and the average specific evacuation rate decrease. The aisle is crowded for some time, with a large linear occupant densities. The evacuation order of each occupant is mainly related to the seat position. Moreover, it is found that the aisle conflicts can be well described by Burstedde's model. This study gives a useful benchmark for evacuation simulation of narrow seat aisle, and provides reference to safety design of seat area in train cars.

  7. Patients and medical statistics. Interest, confidence, and ability.

    PubMed

    Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M; Welch, H Gilbert

    2005-11-01

    People are increasingly presented with medical statistics. There are no existing measures to assess their level of interest or confidence in using medical statistics. To develop 2 new measures, the STAT-interest and STAT-confidence scales, and assess their reliability and validity. Survey with retest after approximately 2 weeks. Two hundred and twenty-four people were recruited from advertisements in local newspapers, an outpatient clinic waiting area, and a hospital open house. We developed and revised 5 items on interest in medical statistics and 3 on confidence understanding statistics. Study participants were mostly college graduates (52%); 25% had a high school education or less. The mean age was 53 (range 20 to 84) years. Most paid attention to medical statistics (6% paid no attention). The mean (SD) STAT-interest score was 68 (17) and ranged from 15 to 100. Confidence in using statistics was also high: the mean (SD) STAT-confidence score was 65 (19) and ranged from 11 to 100. STAT-interest and STAT-confidence scores were moderately correlated (r=.36, P<.001). Both scales demonstrated good test-retest repeatability (r=.60, .62, respectively), internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha=0.70 and 0.78), and usability (individual item nonresponse ranged from 0% to 1.3%). Scale scores correlated only weakly with scores on a medical data interpretation test (r=.15 and .26, respectively). The STAT-interest and STAT-confidence scales are usable and reliable. Interest and confidence were only weakly related to the ability to actually use data.

  8. Confidence and memory: assessing positive and negative correlations.

    PubMed

    Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The capacity to learn and remember surely evolved to help animals solve problems in their quest to reproduce and survive. In humans we assume that metacognitive processes also evolved, so that we know when to trust what we remember (i.e., when we have high confidence in our memories) and when not to (when we have low confidence). However this latter feature has been questioned by researchers, with some finding a high correlation between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory and others finding little to no correlation. In two experiments we report a recognition memory paradigm that, using the same materials (categorised lists), permits the study of positive correlations, zero correlations, and negative correlations between confidence and accuracy within the same procedure. We had subjects study words from semantic categories with the five items most frequently produced in norms omitted from the list; later, subjects were given an old/new recognition test and made confidence ratings on their judgements. Although the correlation between confidence and accuracy for studied items was generally positive, the correlation for the five omitted items was negative in some methods of analysis. We pinpoint the similarity between lures and targets as creating inversions between confidence and accuracy in memory. We argue that, while confidence is generally a useful indicant of accuracy in reports from memory, in certain environmental circumstances even adaptive processes can foster illusions of memory. Thus understanding memory illusions is similar to understanding perceptual illusions: Processes that are usually adaptive can go awry under certain circumstances.

  9. Anterior chamber configuration in patients with glaucoma: MR gonioscopy evaluation with half-Fourier single-shot RARE sequence and microscopy coil.

    PubMed

    Tanitame, Keizo; Sasaki, Ko; Sone, Takashi; Uyama, Shinji; Sumida, Masumi; Ichiki, Toshio; Ito, Katsuhide

    2008-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine the accuracy of half-Fourier single-shot rapid acquisition with relaxation enhancement high-spatial-resolution magnetic resonance (MR) imaging performed with a microscopy coil in the diagnosis of narrow anterior chamber angle in patients with glaucoma. Slit-lamp biomicroscopy served as the reference standard. The institutional review board approved this study, and written informed consent was obtained from the 20 recruited patients. There was excellent agreement between MR gonioscopy and slit-lamp biomicroscopy in the classification of anterior chamber angles as narrow or open (kappa = 0.89 [95% confidence interval: 0.69, 1.10]). MR gonioscopy has substantial potential as a technique used to evaluate glaucoma. (c) RSNA, 2008.

  10. Psychometric properties of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale among individuals with a lower-limb amputation.

    PubMed

    Miller, William C; Deathe, A Barry; Speechley, Mark

    2003-05-01

    To evaluate the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale among people who have a lower-limb amputation. Retest design. A university-affiliated outpatient amputee clinic in Ontario. Two samples of individuals who have unilateral transtibial and transfemoral amputation. Sample 1 (n=54) was a consecutive and sample 2 (n=329) a convenience sample of all members of the clinic population. Not applicable. Repeated application of the ABC Scale, a 16-item questionnaire that assesses confidence in performing various mobility-related tasks. Correlation to test hypothesized relationships between the ABC Scale and the 2-minute walk (2MWT) and the timed up-and-go (TUG) tests; and assessment of the ability of the ABC Scale to discriminate among groups based on amputation cause, amputation level, mobility device use, automatic stepping ability, wearing time, stair climbing ability, and walking distance. Test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) of the ABC Scale was .91 (95% confidence interval [CI], .84-.95) with individual item test-retest coefficients ranging from .53 to .87. Internal consistency, measured by Cronbach alpha, was .95. Hypothesized associations with the 2MWT and TUG test were observed with correlations of .72 (95% CI, .56-.84) and -.70 (95% CI, -.82 to -.53), respectively. The ABC Scale discriminated between all groups except those based on amputation level. Balance confidence, as measured by the ABC Scale, is a construct that provides unique information potentially useful to clinicians who provide amputee rehabilitation. The ABC Scale is reliable, with strong support for validity. Study of the scale's responsiveness is recommended.

  11. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    PubMed

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Rapid water transportation through narrow one-dimensional channels by restricted hydrogen bonds.

    PubMed

    Ohba, Tomonori; Kaneko, Katsumi; Endo, Morinobu; Hata, Kenji; Kanoh, Hirofumi

    2013-01-29

    Water plays an important role in controlling chemical reactions and bioactivities. For example, water transportation through water channels in a biomembrane is a key factor in bioactivities. However, molecular-level mechanisms of water transportation are as yet unknown. Here, we investigate water transportation through narrow and wide one-dimensional (1D) channels on the basis of water-vapor adsorption rates and those determined by molecular dynamics simulations. We observed that water in narrow 1D channels was transported 3-5 times faster than that in wide 1D channels, although the narrow 1D channels provide fewer free nanospaces for water transportation. This rapid transportation is attributed to the formation of fewer hydrogen bonds between water molecules adsorbed in narrow 1D channels. The water-transportation mechanism provides the possibility of rapid communication through 1D channels and will be useful in controlling reactions and activities in water systems.

  13. High-intensity cycle interval training improves cycling and running performance in triathletes.

    PubMed

    Etxebarria, Naroa; Anson, Judith M; Pyne, David B; Ferguson, Richard A

    2014-01-01

    Effective cycle training for triathlon is a challenge for coaches. We compared the effects of two variants of cycle high-intensity interval training (HIT) on triathlon-specific cycling and running. Fourteen moderately-trained male triathletes ([Formula: see text]O2peak 58.7 ± 8.1 mL kg(-1) min(-1); mean ± SD) completed on separate occasions a maximal incremental test ([Formula: see text]O2peak and maximal aerobic power), 16 × 20 s cycle sprints and a 1-h triathlon-specific cycle followed immediately by a 5 km run time trial. Participants were then pair-matched and assigned randomly to either a long high-intensity interval training (LONG) (6-8 × 5 min efforts) or short high-intensity interval training (SHORT) (9-11 × 10, 20 and 40 s efforts) HIT cycle training intervention. Six training sessions were completed over 3 weeks before participants repeated the baseline testing. Both groups had an ∼7% increase in [Formula: see text]O2peak (SHORT 7.3%, ±4.6%; mean, ±90% confidence limits; LONG 7.5%, ±1.7%). There was a moderate improvement in mean power for both the SHORT (10.3%, ±4.4%) and LONG (10.7%, ±6.8%) groups during the last eight 20-s sprints. There was a small to moderate decrease in heart rate, blood lactate and perceived exertion in both groups during the 1-h triathlon-specific cycling but only the LONG group had a substantial decrease in the subsequent 5-km run time (64, ±59 s). Moderately-trained triathletes should use both short and long high-intensity intervals to improve cycling physiology and performance. Longer 5-min intervals on the bike are more likely to benefit 5 km running performance.

  14. CT demonstration of pharyngeal narrowing in adult obstructive sleep apnea

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bohlman, M.E.; Haponik, E.F.; Smith, P.L.

    Sleep apnea is a major cause of daytime hypersomnolence. Among the proposed etiologies, focal obstruction of the airways at the level of the pharynx has been suggested but not proven. Using computed tomography, the cross-sectional area of the airway can be readily assessed. Thirty-three adults with clinically proven sleep apnea and 12 normal adults underwent systematic computed tomography of the neck. Significant airway narrowing was demonstrated in all the patients with obstructive sleep apnea, whereas no such narrowing was seen in the controls. In 11, the narrowing was at a single level, whereas in 22 patients two or more levelsmore » were affected. This study has shown that a structurally abnormal airway may serve as an anatomic substrate for the development of sleep apnea. On the basis of this evidence, uvulopalatopharyngoplasty has been performed in two patients with relief of symptoms in one.« less

  15. Pressure Fluctuation Characteristics of Narrow Gauge Train Running Through Tunnel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Masahiro; Sakuma, Yutaka

    Pressure fluctuations on the sides of narrow (1067 mm) gauge trains running in tunnels are measured for the first time to investigate the aerodynamic force acting on the trains. The present measurements are compared with earlier measurements obtained with the Shinkansen trains. The results are as follows: (1) The aerodynamic force, which stems from pressure fluctuations on the sides of cars, puts the energy into the vibration of the car body running through a tunnel. (2) While the pressure fluctuations appear only on one of the two sides of the trains running in double-track tunnels, the fluctuations in opposite phase on both sides in single-track tunnels. (3) The on-track test data of the narrow gauge trains show the same tendency as those of the Shinkansen trains, although it is suggested that the pressure fluctuations develop faster along the narrow gauge trains than the Shinkansen trains.

  16. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  17. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  18. Simultaneous confidence sets for several effective doses.

    PubMed

    Tompsett, Daniel M; Biedermann, Stefanie; Liu, Wei

    2018-04-03

    Construction of simultaneous confidence sets for several effective doses currently relies on inverting the Scheffé type simultaneous confidence band, which is known to be conservative. We develop novel methodology to make the simultaneous coverage closer to its nominal level, for both two-sided and one-sided simultaneous confidence sets. Our approach is shown to be considerably less conservative than the current method, and is illustrated with an example on modeling the effect of smoking status and serum triglyceride level on the probability of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Extended score interval in the assessment of basic surgical skills.

    PubMed

    Acosta, Stefan; Sevonius, Dan; Beckman, Anders

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The Basic Surgical Skills course uses an assessment score interval of 0-3. An extended score interval, 1-6, was proposed by the Swedish steering committee of the course. The aim of this study was to analyze the trainee scores in the current 0-3 scored version compared to a proposed 1-6 scored version. Methods Sixteen participants, seven females and nine males, were evaluated in the current and proposed assessment forms by instructors, observers, and learners themselves during the first and second day. In each assessment form, 17 tasks were assessed. The inter-rater reliability between the current and the proposed score sheets were evaluated with intraclass correlation (ICC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results The distribution of scores for 'knot tying' at the last time point and 'bowel anastomosis side to side' given by the instructors in the current assessment form showed that the highest score was given in 31 and 62%, respectively. No ceiling effects were found in the proposed assessment form. The overall ICC between the current and proposed score sheets after assessment by the instructors increased from 0.38 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) on Day 1 to 0.83 (95% CI 0.51-0.94) on Day 2. Discussion A clear ceiling effect of scores was demonstrated in the current assessment form, questioning its validity. The proposed score sheet provides more accurate scores and seems to be a better feedback instrument for learning technical surgical skills in the Basic Surgical Skills course.

  20. Narrowing the Achievement Gap: A Case Study of an Urban School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lugo, Rosalinda

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this case study was to identify the cultural norms, practices, and programs of an urban school that narrowed the achievement gap. The reason for identifying these factors in a successful school was to add to the body of literature regarding the achievement gap and what a struggling school was able to do to narrow the gap. This case…

  1. Multiple confidence estimates as indices of eyewitness memory.

    PubMed

    Sauer, James D; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-08-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated. Classification algorithms were applied to participants' confidence data to determine when a confidence value or pattern of confidence values indicated a positive response. Experiment 1 compared confidence group classification accuracy with a binary decision control group's accuracy on a standard old-new face recognition task and found superior accuracy for the confidence group for target-absent trials but not for target-present trials. Experiment 2 used a face mini-lineup task and found reduced target-present accuracy offset by large gains in target-absent accuracy. Using a standard lineup paradigm, Experiments 3 and 4 also found improved classification accuracy for target-absent lineups and, with a more sophisticated algorithm, for target-present lineups. This demonstrates the accessibility of evidence for recognition memory decisions and points to a more sensitive index of memory quality than is afforded by binary decisions.

  2. Corrected confidence bands for functional data using principal components.

    PubMed

    Goldsmith, J; Greven, S; Crainiceanu, C

    2013-03-01

    Functional principal components (FPC) analysis is widely used to decompose and express functional observations. Curve estimates implicitly condition on basis functions and other quantities derived from FPC decompositions; however these objects are unknown in practice. In this article, we propose a method for obtaining correct curve estimates by accounting for uncertainty in FPC decompositions. Additionally, pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals that account for both model- and decomposition-based variability are constructed. Standard mixed model representations of functional expansions are used to construct curve estimates and variances conditional on a specific decomposition. Iterated expectation and variance formulas combine model-based conditional estimates across the distribution of decompositions. A bootstrap procedure is implemented to understand the uncertainty in principal component decomposition quantities. Our method compares favorably to competing approaches in simulation studies that include both densely and sparsely observed functions. We apply our method to sparse observations of CD4 cell counts and to dense white-matter tract profiles. Code for the analyses and simulations is publicly available, and our method is implemented in the R package refund on CRAN. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Hypercorrection of high-confidence errors in the classroom.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Shana K; Haynes, Cynthia L; Corral, Daniel; Yeung, Kam Leung

    2018-05-19

    People often have erroneous knowledge about the world that is firmly entrenched in memory and endorsed with high confidence. Although strong errors in memory would seem difficult to "un-learn," evidence suggests that errors are more likely to be corrected through feedback when they are originally endorsed with high confidence compared to low confidence. This hypercorrection effect has been predominantly studied in laboratory settings with general knowledge (i.e., trivia) questions, however, and has not been systematically explored in authentic classroom contexts. In the current study, college students in an introductory horticulture class answered questions about the course content, rated their confidence in their answers, received feedback of the correct answers, and then later completed a posttest. Results revealed a significant hypercorrection effect, along with a tendency for students with higher prior knowledge of the material to express higher confidence in, and in turn more effective correction of, their error responses.

  4. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  5. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  6. Estimated Magnitudes and Recurrence Intervals of Peak Flows on the Mousam and Little Ossipee Rivers for the Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Stewart, Gregory J.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Dudley, Robert W.

    2007-01-01

    Large amounts of rain fell on southern Maine from the afternoon of April 15, 2007, to the afternoon of April 16, 2007, causing substantial damage to houses, roads, and culverts. This report provides an estimate of the peak flows on two rivers in southern Maine--the Mousam River and the Little Ossipee River--because of their severe flooding. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 9,230 ft3/s at the Mousam River near West Kennebunk had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 25 years to greater than 500 years. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 8,220 ft3/s at the Little Ossipee River near South Limington had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 50 years to greater than 500 years.

  7. Using Replicates in Information Retrieval Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Voorhees, Ellen M; Samarov, Daniel; Soboroff, Ian

    2017-09-01

    This article explores a method for more accurately estimating the main effect of the system in a typical test-collection-based evaluation of information retrieval systems, thus increasing the sensitivity of system comparisons. Randomly partitioning the test document collection allows for multiple tests of a given system and topic (replicates). Bootstrap ANOVA can use these replicates to extract system-topic interactions-something not possible without replicates-yielding a more precise value for the system effect and a narrower confidence interval around that value. Experiments using multiple TREC collections demonstrate that removing the topic-system interactions substantially reduces the confidence intervals around the system effect as well as increases the number of significant pairwise differences found. Further, the method is robust against small changes in the number of partitions used, against variability in the documents that constitute the partitions, and the measure of effectiveness used to quantify system effectiveness.

  8. Using Replicates in Information Retrieval Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    VOORHEES, ELLEN M.; SAMAROV, DANIEL; SOBOROFF, IAN

    2018-01-01

    This article explores a method for more accurately estimating the main effect of the system in a typical test-collection-based evaluation of information retrieval systems, thus increasing the sensitivity of system comparisons. Randomly partitioning the test document collection allows for multiple tests of a given system and topic (replicates). Bootstrap ANOVA can use these replicates to extract system-topic interactions—something not possible without replicates—yielding a more precise value for the system effect and a narrower confidence interval around that value. Experiments using multiple TREC collections demonstrate that removing the topic-system interactions substantially reduces the confidence intervals around the system effect as well as increases the number of significant pairwise differences found. Further, the method is robust against small changes in the number of partitions used, against variability in the documents that constitute the partitions, and the measure of effectiveness used to quantify system effectiveness. PMID:29905334

  9. Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  10. Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

    PubMed

    Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2016-05-01

    This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  12. Gait consistency over a 7-day interval in people with Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Urquhart, D M; Morris, M E; Iansek, R

    1999-06-01

    To evaluate the consistency of temporal and spatial parameters of the walking pattern in subjects with idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD) over a 7-day interval during the "on" phase of the levodopa medication cycle. Walking patterns were measured on a 12-meter walkway at the Kingston Gait Laboratory, Cheltenham, using a computerized stride analyzer. Sixteen subjects (7 women, 9 men) with PD recruited from the Movement Disorders Clinic at Kingston Centre. Speed of walking, stride length, cadence, and the percentage of the walking cycle spent in the double limb support phase of gait were measured, together with the level of disability as indexed by the modified Webster scale. Product-moment correlation coefficients and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC 2,1) for repeat measures over a 7-day interval were high for speed (r = .90; ICC = .93), cadence (r = .90; ICC = .86), and stride length (r = 1.00; ICC = .97) and moderate for double limb support duration after removal of outliers (r = .75; ICC = .73); 95% confidence intervals for the change scores were within clinically acceptable limits for all variables. The mean modified Webster score was 11.4 on the first day and 10.1 7 days later. The gait pattern and level of disability in subjects with PD without severe motor fluctuations remained stable over a 1-week period when optimal medication prevailed.

  13. High prevalence of narrow angles among Chinese-American glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patients.

    PubMed

    Seider, Michael I; Pekmezci, Melike; Han, Ying; Sandhu, Simi; Kwok, Shiu Y; Lee, Roland Y; Lin, Shan C

    2009-01-01

    To evaluate the prevalence of gonioscopically narrow angles in a Chinese-American population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion. Charts from all Chinese-American patients seen in a comprehensive ophthalmology clinic in the Chinatown district of San Francisco in 2002 were reviewed. One eye from each patient with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion that met inclusion criteria was included (n=108). Data were collected for sex, age, race (self-declared), refraction (spherical equivalent), intraocular pressure, gonioscopy, and vertical cup-to-disk ratio. Sixty percent (n=65) of Chinese-American eyes with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles (Shaffer grade < or = 2 in 3 or more quadrants). Those with narrow angles were significantly older (P=0.004) than their open angle counterparts, but the 2 groups did not differ in terms of sex, refraction, intraocular pressure, or cup-to-disk ratio (all, P > or = 0.071). In a multivariate model including age, sex, and refraction as predictors of angle grade (open or narrow), only age was a significant predictor of angle grade (P=0.004). A large proportion of Chinese-Americans in our study population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles. In multivariate analysis, patients with narrow angles were older than those with open angles but did not differ from them in terms of sex or refraction. Continued evaluation of angle closure glaucoma risk among Chinese-Americans is needed.

  14. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

  15. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Rego, Henio H A; Silva, Jonathas N; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.

  16. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  17. Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults.

    PubMed

    Moiz, Jamal Ali; Bansal, Vishal; Noohu, Majumi M; Gaur, Shailendra Nath; Hussain, Mohammad Ejaz; Anwer, Shahnawaz; Alghadir, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Activities-specific balance confidence (ABC) scale is a subjective measure of confidence in performing various ambulatory activities without falling or experiencing a sense of unsteadiness. This study aimed to examine the ability of the Hindi version of the ABC scale (ABC-H scale) to discriminate between fallers and non-fallers and to examine its predictive validity for prospective falls. This was a prospective cohort study. A total of 125 community-dwelling older adults (88 were men) completed the ABC-H scale. The occurrence of falls over the follow-up period of 12 months was recorded. Discriminative validity was analyzed by comparing the total ABC-H scale scores between the faller and non-faller groups. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and a logistic regression analysis were used to examine the predictive accuracy of the ABC-H scale. The mean ABC-H scale score of the faller group was significantly lower than that of the non-faller group (52.6±8.1 vs 73.1±12.2; P <0.001). The optimal cutoff value for distinguishing faller and non-faller adults was ≤58.13. The sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of the cutoff score were 86.3%, 87.3%, 0.91 ( P <0.001), 6.84, and 0.16, respectively. The percentage test accuracy and false-positive and false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004-0.25, P =0.001) was significantly related with future falls. The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values.

  18. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  19. High-resolution endoscopy plus chromoendoscopy or narrow-band imaging in Barrett's esophagus: a prospective randomized crossover study.

    PubMed

    Kara, M A; Peters, F P; Rosmolen, W D; Krishnadath, K K; ten Kate, F J; Fockens, P; Bergman, J J G H

    2005-10-01

    High-resolution endoscopy (HRE) may improve the detection of early neoplasia in Barrett's esophagus. Indigo carmine chromoendoscopy (ICC) and narrow-band imaging (NBI) may be useful techniques to complement HRE. The aim of this study was to compare HRE-ICC with HRE-NBI for the detection of high-grade dysplasia or early cancer (HGD/EC) in patients with Barrett's esophagus. Twenty-eight patients with Barrett's esophagus underwent HRE-ICC and HRE-NBI (separated by 6 - 8 weeks) in a randomized sequence. The two procedures were performed by two different endoscopists, who were blinded to the findings of the other examination. Targeted biopsies were taken from all detected lesions, followed by four-quadrant biopsies at 2-cm intervals. Biopsy evaluation was supervised by a single expert pathologist, who was blinded to the imaging technique used. Fourteen patients were diagnosed with HGD/EC. The sensitivity for HGD/EC was 93 % and 86 % for HRE-ICC and HRE-NBI, respectively. Targeted biopsies had a sensitivity of 79 % with HRE alone. HGD was diagnosed from random biopsies alone in only one patient. ICC and NBI detected a limited number of additional lesions occult to HRE, but these lesions did not alter the sensitivity for identifying patients with HGD/EC. In most patients with high-grade dysplasia or early cancer in Barrett's esophagus, subtle lesions can be identified with high-resolution endoscopy. Indigo carmine chromoendoscopy and narrow-band imaging are comparable as adjuncts to high-resolution endoscopy.

  20. Keeping the Edges Sharp I: Honing the Theory of Narrow Rings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, Douglas P.; Rimlinger, Thomas; Hahn, Joseph M.

    2016-05-01

    Most of the rings that encircle Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune are very narrow structures with typical radial widths of just a few kilometers. Such extreme sharpness is surprising, as even slightly different orbital periods should allow ring particles to continually jostle one another in collisions that preserve angular momentum whileinexorably draining energy. Sharp edges should blur as rings spread in response to collisions and yet they do not. The generally accepted solution to this dilemma is to bracket each narrow ring with a pair of shepherding satellites that can pump energy back into the ring to replace that lost by collisions. But only a disappointing two of roughly twenty narrow rings actually have known attendant satellites. We present a compelling alternative in which the slight eccentricities and inclinations of narrow ringlets act as internal energy sources that can be tapped to prevent ring spreading. When unattended circular rings dissipate energy they must spread radially in order to preserve angular momentum. By contrast, eccentric or inclined rings have an extra degree of freedom that can be exploited to prevent radial spreading; energy is dissipated while keeping z-component of angular momentum, sqrt(a(1-e^2))cos(i), constant by simply decreasing the overall eccentricity (e) and/or inclination (i) of the entire ring. A real narrow ring moves inward as a unit, circularizes, and drops into the equatorial plane in a process that deters radial spreading for millions or billions of years. Using secular theory with dissipation (Zhang et al. 2013), we show that narrow rings are secular eigenstates in which ellipses are nested with pericenters almost, but not exactly aligned. The misalignment of pericenters is crucial in allowing energy dissipation to be shared evenly across the ring. We predict ring surface densities that are roughly constant across the ring's width, in contrast to profiles expected for shepherded rings. Rimlinger et al. (this meeting

  1. Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.

    2006-01-01

    We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…

  2. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  3. Predicting resident confidence to lead family meetings.

    PubMed

    Butler, D J; Holloway, R L; Gottlieb, M

    1998-05-01

    Family physicians frequently encounter patients' family members in family meetings regarding health care. Although residents are expected to learn how to interview families, no quantitative studies have examined variables associated with building residents' confidence in their ability to lead family meetings. The current study sought to clarify the relationship between a number of training, participant, and situational components and resident confidence. All family practice residents (n = 90) in a five-residency program system were sent a survey that examined their experience in and perceived competence to conduct family meetings. Responses were analyzed with a hierarchical regression analysis and an ex post facto univariate analysis. Residents with higher perceived confidence in their ability to run a family meeting were male, had specific training for leading family meetings, had participated in and initiated more family meetings, perceived stronger family physician faculty support, and had more family systems training than lower-confidence residents. The results highlight the experiential, curricular, and environmental variables that are associated with building resident confidence to lead family meetings. Residents may benefit from early exposure to the skills needed for family meetings and from reinforcement of these skills through observations of skilled practitioners, the expectation that they will initiate meetings, and the opportunity to debrief meetings with supportive faculty. Family meeting curricula should include conflict management skills and incorporate input from other specialists and hospital personnel who meet with families.

  4. A randomised tandem colonoscopy trial of narrow band imaging versus white light examination to compare neoplasia miss rates.

    PubMed

    Kaltenbach, T; Friedland, S; Soetikno, R

    2008-10-01

    Colonoscopy, the "gold standard" screening test for colorectal cancer (CRC), has known diagnostic limitations. Advances in endoscope technology have focused on improving mucosal visualisation. In addition to increased angle of view and resolution features, recent colonoscopes have non-white-light optics, such as narrow band imaging (NBI), to enhance image contrast. We aimed to study the neoplasia diagnostic characteristics of NBI, by comparing the neoplasm miss rate when the colonoscopy was performed under NBI versus white light (WL). Randomised controlled trial. US Veterans hospital. Elective colonoscopy adults. We randomly assigned patients to undergo a colonoscopic examination using NBI or WL. All patients underwent a second examination using WL, as the reference standard. The primary end point was the difference in the neoplasm miss rate, and secondary outcome was the neoplasm detection rate. In 276 tandem colonoscopy patients, there was no significant difference of miss or detection rates between NBI or WL colonoscopy techniques. Of the 135 patients in the NBI group, 17 patients (12.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.5 to 19.4%) had a missed neoplasm, as compared with 17 of the 141 patients (12.1%; 95% CI 7.2 to 18.6%) in the WL group, with a miss rate risk difference of 0.5% (95% CI -7.2 to 8.3). 130 patients (47%) had at least one neoplasm. Missed lesions with NBI showed similar characteristics to those missed with WL. All missed neoplasms were tubular adenomas, the majority (78%) was < or = 5 mm and none were larger than 1 cm (one-sided 95% CI up to 1%). Nonpolypoid lesions represented 35% (13/37) of missed neoplasms. NBI did not improve the colorectal neoplasm miss rate compared to WL; the miss rate for advanced adenomas was less than 1% and for all adenomas was 12%. The neoplasm detection rates were similar high using NBI or WL; almost a half the study patients had at least one adenoma. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00628147.

  5. Application of narrow-band television to industrial and commercial communications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Embrey, B. C., Jr.; Southworth, G. R.

    1974-01-01

    The development of narrow-band systems for use in space systems is presented. Applications of the technology to future spacecraft requirements are discussed along with narrow-band television's influence in stimulating development within the industry. The transferral of the technology into industrial and commercial communications is described. Major areas included are: (1) medicine; (2) education; (3) remote sensing for traffic control; and (5) weather observation. Applications in data processing, image enhancement, and information retrieval are provided by the combination of the TV camera and the computer.

  6. Neural basis for recognition confidence in younger and older adults.

    PubMed

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Schacter, Daniel L; Sperling, Reisa A

    2009-03-01

    Although several studies have examined the neural basis for age-related changes in objective memory performance, less is known about how the process of memory monitoring changes with aging. The authors used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine retrospective confidence in memory performance in aging. During low confidence, both younger and older adults showed behavioral evidence that they were guessing during recognition and that they were aware they were guessing when making confidence judgments. Similarly, both younger and older adults showed increased neural activity during low- compared to high-confidence responses in the lateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and left intraparietal sulcus. In contrast, older adults showed more high-confidence errors than younger adults. Younger adults showed greater activity for high compared to low confidence in medial temporal lobe structures, but older adults did not show this pattern. Taken together, these findings may suggest that impairments in the confidence-accuracy relationship for memory in older adults, which are often driven by high-confidence errors, may be primarily related to altered neural signals associated with greater activity for high-confidence responses.

  7. Neural basis for recognition confidence in younger and older adults

    PubMed Central

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Schacter, Daniel L.; Sperling, Reisa A.

    2008-01-01

    Although several studies have examined the neural basis for age-related changes in objective memory performance, less is known about how the process of memory monitoring changes with aging. We used fMRI to examine retrospective confidence in memory performance in aging. During low confidence, both younger and older adults showed behavioral evidence that they were guessing during recognition, and that they were aware they were guessing when making confidence judgments. Similarly, both younger and older adults showed increased neural activity during low compared to high confidence responses in lateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and left intraparietal sulcus. In contrast, older adults showed more high confidence errors than younger adults. Younger adults showed greater activity for high compared to low confidence in medial temporal lobe structures, but older adults did not show this pattern. Taken together, these findings may suggest that impairments in the confidence-accuracy relationship for memory in older adults, which are often driven by high confidence errors, may be primarily related to altered neural signals associated with greater activity for high confidence responses. PMID:19290745

  8. The holy grail of soil metal contamination site assessment: reducing risk and increasing confidence of decision making using infield portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouillon, M.; Taylor, M. P.; Dong, C.

    2016-12-01

    This research assesses the advantages of integrating field portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology for reducing the risk and increase confidence of decision making for metal-contaminated site assessments. Metal-contaminated sites are often highly heterogeneous and require a high sampling density to accurately characterize the distribution and concentration of contaminants. The current regulatory assessment approaches rely on a small number of samples processed using standard wet-chemistry methods. In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, the current notification trigger for characterizing metal-contaminated sites require the upper 95% confidence interval of the site mean to equal or exceed the relevant guidelines. The method's low `minimum' sampling requirements can misclassify sites due to the heterogeneous nature of soil contamination, leading to inaccurate decision making. To address this issue, we propose integrating infield pXRF analysis with the established sampling method to overcome sampling limitations. This approach increases the minimum sampling resolution and reduces the 95% CI of the site mean. Infield pXRF analysis at contamination hotspots enhances sample resolution efficiently and without the need to return to the site. In this study, the current and proposed pXRF site assessment methods are compared at five heterogeneous metal-contaminated sites by analysing the spatial distribution of contaminants, 95% confidence intervals of site means, and the sampling and analysis uncertainty associated with each method. Finally, an analysis of costs associated with both the current and proposed methods is presented to demonstrate the advantages of incorporating pXRF into metal-contaminated site assessments. The data shows that pXRF integrated site assessments allows for faster, cost-efficient, characterisation of metal-contaminated sites with greater confidence for decision making.

  9. Raising Confident, Competent Daughters: Strategies for Parents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ransome, Whitney, Ed.; And Others

    This booklet contains five essays designed to help parents raise confident, competent daughters. They focus on ways that parents can help their preadolescent and adolescent daughters: (1) speak up in class, articulate their thoughts, and speak with self-confidence in various academic and social situations; (2) develop an interest and aptitude for…

  10. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  11. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  12. Extended-Interval Gentamicin Dosing in Achieving Therapeutic Concentrations in Malaysian Neonates

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Sin Li; Wan, Angeline SL

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the usefulness of extended-interval gentamicin dosing practiced in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and special care nursery (SCN) of a Malaysian hospital. METHODS: Cross-sectional observational study with pharmacokinetic analysis of all patients aged ≤28 days who received gentamicin treatment in NICU/SCN. Subjects received dosing according to a regimen modified from an Australian-based pediatric guideline. During a study period of 3 months, subjects were evaluated for gestational age, body weight, serum creatinine concentration, gentamicin dose/interval, serum peak and trough concentrations, and pharmacokinetic parameters. Descriptive percentages were used to determine the overall dosing accuracy, while analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted to compare the accuracy rates among different gestational ages. Pharmacokinetic profile among different gestational age and body weight groups were compared by using ANOVA. RESULTS: Of the 113 subjects included, 82.3% (n = 93) achieved therapeutic concentrations at the first drug-monitoring assessment. There was no significant difference found between the percentage of term neonates who achieved therapeutic concentrations and the premature group (87.1% vs. 74.4%), p = 0.085. A total of 112 subjects (99.1%) achieved desired therapeutic trough concentration of <2 mg/L. Mean gentamicin peak concentration was 8.52 mg/L (95% confidence interval [Cl], 8.13–8.90 mg/L) and trough concentration was 0.54 mg/L (95% CI, 0.48–0.60 mg/L). Mean volume of distribution, half-life, and elimination rate were 0.65 L/kg (95% CI, 0.62–0.68 L/kg), 6.96 hours (95% CI, 6.52–7.40 hours), and 0.11 hour−1 (95% CI, 0.10–0.11 hour−1), respectively. CONCLUSION: The larger percentage of subjects attaining therapeutic range with extended-interval gentamicin dosing suggests that this regimen is appropriate and can be safely used among Malaysian neonates. PMID:25964729

  13. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    PubMed

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

  14. Narrow-band filters for the lightning imager

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piegari, Angela; Di Sarcina, Ilaria; Grilli, Maria Luisa; Menchini, Francesca; Scaglione, Salvatore; Sytchkova, Anna; Zola, Danilo; Cuevas, Leticia P.

    2017-11-01

    The study of lightning phenomena will be carried out by a dedicated instrument, the lightning imager, that will make use of narrow-band transmission filters for separating the Oxygen emission lines in the clouds, from the background signal. The design, manufacturing and testing of these optical filters will be described here.

  15. Is team confidence the key to success? The reciprocal relation between collective efficacy, team outcome confidence, and perceptions of team performance during soccer games.

    PubMed

    Fransen, Katrien; Decroos, Steven; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; Vande Broek, Gert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vanroy, Jari; Boen, Filip

    2015-01-01

    The present manuscript extends previous research on the reciprocal relation between team confidence and perceived team performance in two ways. First, we distinguished between two types of team confidence; process-oriented collective efficacy and outcome-oriented team outcome confidence. Second, we assessed both types not only before and after the game, but for the first time also during half-time, thereby providing deeper insight into their dynamic relation with perceived team performance. Two field studies were conducted, each with 10 male soccer teams (N = 134 in Study 1; N = 125 in Study 2). Our findings provide partial support for the reciprocal relation between players' team confidence (both collective efficacy and team outcome confidence) and players' perceptions of the team's performance. Although both types of players' team confidence before the game were not significantly related to perceived team performance in the first half, players' team confidence during half-time was positively related to perceived team performance in the second half. Additionally, our findings consistently demonstrated a relation between perceived team performance and players' subsequent team confidence. Considering that team confidence is a dynamical process, which can be affected by coaches and players, our findings open new avenues to optimise team performance.

  16. Determinants of lens vault and association with narrow angles in patients from Singapore.

    PubMed

    Tan, Gavin S; He, Mingguang; Zhao, Wanting; Sakata, Lisandro M; Li, Jialiang; Nongpiur, Monisha E; Lavanya, Raghavan; Friedman, David S; Aung, Tin

    2012-07-01

    To describe the distribution and determinants of lens vault and to investigate the association of lens vault with narrow angles. Prospective cross-sectional study. Phakic subjects 50 years and older were evaluated at a primary healthcare clinic with gonioscopy, partial laser interferometry, and anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT). Narrow angles were defined as posterior trabecular meshwork not visible for ≥2 quadrants on non-indentation gonioscopy. Lens vault was defined as the perpendicular distance between the anterior pole of the crystalline lens and the horizontal line joining the 2 scleral spurs on horizontal AS-OCT scans. Analysis of covariance, multivariate logistic regression, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were performed. Of the 2047 subjects recruited, 582 were excluded because of poor image quality or inability to locate scleral spurs, leaving 1465 subjects for analysis. Eyes with narrow angles had greater lens vault compared to eyes with open angles (775.6 µm vs 386.5 µm, P < .0001). Women had significantly greater lens vault than men (497.28 µm vs 438.56 µm, P < .001), and lens vault increased significantly with age (P for trend <.001). Adjusted for age and sex, significant associations with greater lens vault were shorter axial length, shallower anterior chamber depth(ACD), higher intraocular pressure, and more hyperopic spherical equivalent (all P < .001). On multivariate analysis, subjects with lens vault >667.6 µm were more likely to have narrow angles (OR 2.201, 95% CI: 1.070-4.526) compared to those with lens vault ≤462.7 µm. The AUC for lens vault (0.816) and ACD (0.822) for detecting narrow angles were similar (P = .582). Lens vault was independently associated with narrow angles and may be useful in screening to detect eyes with narrow angles. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. High Prevalence of Narrow Angles among Chinese-American Glaucoma and Glaucoma Suspect Patients

    PubMed Central

    Seider, Michael I; Pekmezci, Melike; Han, Ying; Sandhu, Simi; Kwok, Shiu Y; Lee, Roland Y; Lin, Shan C

    2009-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the prevalence of gonioscopically narrow angles in a Chinese-American population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion. Patients and Methods Charts from all Chinese-American patients seen in a comprehensive ophthalmology clinic in the Chinatown district of San Francisco in 2002 were reviewed. One eye from each patient with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion that met inclusion criteria was included (n=108). Data was collected for gender, age, race (self-declared), refraction (spherical equivalent), intraocular pressure (IOP), gonioscopy and vertical cup-to-disk ratio (CDR). Results Sixty percent (n=65) of Chinese-American eyes with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles (Shaffer grade ≤2 in three or more quadrants). Those with narrow angles were significantly older (P=0.004) than their open angle counterparts, but the two groups did not differ in terms of gender, refraction, IOP or CDR (all, P≥0.071). In a multivariate model including age, gender and refraction as predictors of angle grade (open or narrow), only age was a significant predictor of angle grade (P=0.004). Conclusions A large proportion of Chinese-Americans in our study population with glaucoma or glaucoma suspicion had gonioscopically narrow angles. In multivariate analysis, patients with narrow angles were older than those with open angles but did not differ from them in terms of gender or refraction. Continued evaluation of angle closure glaucoma risk among Chinese-Americans is needed. PMID:19826385

  18. Neural activity underlying motor-action preparation and cognitive narrowing in approach-motivated goal states.

    PubMed

    Gable, Philip A; Threadgill, A Hunter; Adams, David L

    2016-02-01

    High-approach-motivated (pre-goal) positive affect states encourage tenacious goal pursuit and narrow cognitive scope. As such, high approach-motivated states likely enhance the neural correlates of motor-action preparation to aid in goal acquisition. These neural correlates may also relate to the cognitive narrowing associated with high approach-motivated states. In the present study, we investigated motor-action preparation during pre-goal and post-goal states using an index of beta suppression over the motor cortex. The results revealed that beta suppression was greatest in pre-goal positive states, suggesting that higher levels of motor-action preparation occur during high approach-motivated positive states. Furthermore, beta and alpha suppression in the high approach-motivated positive states predicted greater cognitive narrowing. These results suggest that approach-motivated pre-goal states engage the neural substrates of motor-action preparation and cognitive narrowing. Individual differences in motor-action preparation relate to the degree of cognitive narrowing.

  19. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    PubMed

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  20. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45°) represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned) input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays. PMID:26495433